Forecast for EUR/USD on November 13, 2020

EUR / USD

The euro gained 27 points yesterday amid the weakening of other world currencies.

On the one hand, the euro seems to be strong, but on the other hand, there is an impression of speculative growth, especially since the trading volumes for the euro were only average yesterday. Nonetheless, if the EU's Q3 GDP comes out better than projected, the euro will continue its rise in the market. A breakout above 1.1830 could extend growth up to the MACD line (on the D1 chart) and may even reach the second target, which is 1.1945. But a decline below 1.1750 will return the bearish sentiment, which will bring the euro towards the level of 1.1620.

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As for the four-hour chart, the quote is down below the support of the MACD line, which is a kind of signal for further growth. But since its location is still below the red indicator of the balance line (which indicates a downward trend in the short term) and the Marlin oscillator is still in the negative zone, the observed local growth is overpowered. Only a really good data on EU GDP can bring the euro up.

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Analytics and trading signals for beginners. How to trade EUR/USD on November 13? Plan for opening and closing trades on

Hourly chart of the EUR/USD pair

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The EUR/USD pair began a very sluggish pullback along the downward trend line last night. Therefore, there is a rather ambiguous situation at the moment. On the one hand, the MACD indicator has generated a new sell signal, while the trend line signals a continuing downward trend. On the other hand, there is no such downward movement. Over the past 18 hours, the pair fell around 10-15 points. So now novice traders can formally trade for a fall, however, the trend will change to an upward one if the price settles above the trend line. Take note that a flat has developed for the euro/dollar pair over the past 24 hours. Besides, the pair has been trading mainly between the levels of 1.1700 and 1.1900 for three consecutive months, which is also flat. Accordingly, there is no trend now either in the long term or in the short term. Given that the downward trend continues, we still believe that the euro will fall to the lower border of the 1.1696 horizontal channel.

Today, we can expect some interesting reports from the European Union. First of all, we advise you to pay attention to the eurozone GDP for the third quarter. Growth is forecast to be 12.7% q/q. If the actual value of the report turns out to be lower, it can help bring back the downward movement. And vice versa. Germany will also publish its GDP report, but it is less significant than the pan-European one. There won't be any important publications in America today. Producer price index and consumer confidence index are clearly not the data that can influence the mood of traders. Therefore, we recommend paying more attention to technical factors today. Now the price is in close proximity to the trend line, which means that in the next few hours this line may be broken or the pair can rebound off it. These phenomena can also be interpreted as signals. In general, we believe that the US dollar has good chances of rising (a decline for EUR/USD). So far, Donald Trump has not moved from words to deeds, so the political crisis in America is gradually subsiding, and the constitutional one is not developing. However, if the current president continues to insist on a revision of the election results, this could create an unfavorable atmosphere for the US dollar.

Possible scenarios for November 13:

1) Buy positions on the EUR/USD pair remain irrelevant at this time. However, if the price settles above the downward trend line, then novice traders are advised to open long positions with targets at 1.1832 and 1.1860, since the trend will change to an upward one in this case. The pair spent the last hours in a flat, so a horizontal movement is also possible.

2) Trading for a fall is still more relevant at this time, as the downward trend continues. Therefore, novice traders are advised to wait for a rebound from the trend line now, and the MACD indicator has already turned to the downside. Therefore, we advise you to sell the pair while aiming for 1.1768 and 1.1732, but do not forget about the Stop Loss levels in case the price settles above the trend line.

On the chart:

Support and Resistance Levels are the Levels that serve as targets when buying or selling the pair. You can place Take Profit near these levels.

Red lines are the channels or trend lines that display the current trend and show in which direction it is better to trade now.

Up/down arrows show where you should sell or buy after reaching or breaking through particular levels.

The MACD indicator (14,22,3) consists of a histogram and a signal line. When they cross, this is a signal to enter the market. It is recommended to use this indicator in combination with trend lines (channels and trend lines).

Important announcements and economic reports that you can always find in the news calendar can seriously influence the trajectory of a currency pair. Therefore, at the time of their release, we recommended trading as carefully as possible or exit the market in order to avoid a sharp price reversal.

Beginners on Forex should remember that not every single trade has to be profitable. The development of a clear strategy and money management are the key to success in trading over a long period of time.

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Technical Analysis of ETH/USD for November 13, 2020

Crypto Industry Outlook:

Russia's massive oversight of cryptocurrency transactions seems to have one key downside. Namely, it seems that criminals who use digital resources to carry out illegal transactions do not bear any responsibility.

On Thursday, Russia's Ministry of Finance proposed new changes to the country's cryptocurrency laws to clarify the rules on tax evasion. Under the proposed guidelines, Russians face up to three years in prison for failing to report, at least twice in three years, a transaction worth 45 million rubles ($ 583,000) or more.

Earlier, the Ministry of Finance's draft talked about a three-year prison sentence for anyone who did not report a transaction over 1 million rubles ($ 13,000). Citizens must also report transactions and wallet amounts in excess of 600,000 rubles ($ 7,700) in a calendar year. Failure to register on time could result in a fine of 50,000 rubles ($ 640).

Mikhail Uspensky, a consultant for the Russian law firm Taxology, says the ministry's new guidelines also ignore the so-called "gray cryptocurrency exchanges" that account for the majority of darknet transactions.

"It was decided not to impose criminal liability on them, and the main risk of criminal proceedings should be transferred to ordinary cryptocurrency owners," Uspensky told the Russian media RBC.

Russia's crackdown on cryptocurrency holders is taking place at a time when policymakers are seriously considering the benefits of a central bank's digital currency. The Bank of Russia is expanding its efforts to understand CBDC in the aftermath of the Covid-19 pandemic, which had a destabilizing impact on monetary policy.

Technical Market Outlook:

The ETH/USD pair has hit the level of $475.58 after the triangle breakout, so the bullish pressure is still present. Nevertheless, the price got back to the old supply zone quickly and now is consolidating inside of this zone. The level of $424.65 will now provide the intraday support and the level of $400 will now act as a key technical support. The next target for bulls is seen at the swing high at $466.36 and then $500. Only if a daily candle closes below $360 level, then the bears will have full control of the market.

Weekly Pivot Points:

WR3 - $594.51

WR2 - $529.18

WR1 - $494.37

Weekly Pivot - $431.37

WS1 - $395.52

WS2 - $336.56

WS3 - $301.67

Trading Recommendations:

The up trend on the Ethereum continues and the next long term target for ETH/USD is seen at the level of $500, so any correction or local pull-back should be used to open the buy orders. This scenario is valid as long as the level of $309.61 is broken.

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Technical Analysis of BTC/USD for November 13, 2020

Crypto Industry Outlook:

Over the 11 years since the inception of the crypto industry, malicious sites have used digital assets for a range of illegal activities, ranging from drug payments to money laundering. The analytical company Blockchain Chainalysis is introducing a new service to help authorities track, store and sell crime-related cryptocurrencies after their recovery. The company calls this initiative the Asset Realization Program.

With the new Chainalysis program, it aims to help customers by putting together and selling confiscated digital funds, closing once illegally used assets and legally putting them back into the ecosystem.

Chainalysis's Asset Realization Program is aimed at government agencies as well as insolvency firms, players representing insolvent entities. However, the program is also open to other interested people. As part of the initiative, Chainalysis has partnered with Asset Reality, a company that already operates in a niche of confiscated assets. The company will work with Chainalysis on a number of processes, including the sale of confiscated funds.

Technical Market Outlook:

The BTC/USD pair has broken above the $16,000 and made a new yearly high at the level of $16,420 (at the time of writing the article). From time to time the market is consolidating the recent gains in extremely overbought market conditions and then makes another spike up, so the up trend is being continued. The intraday technical support is currently seen at the level of $16,000 and the intraday technical resistance is located at $16,420. As the up trend is still being continued, so the next target for bulls is seen at the level of $17,000.

Weekly Pivot Points:

WR3 - $19,307

WR2 - $17,576

WR1 - $16,627

Weekly Pivot - $14,868

WS1 - $13,889

WS2 - $12,207

WS3 - $11,247

Trading Recommendations:

Bitcoin is trading at the yearly highs and bulls are in control of the market. The up trend continues and the next long term target for Bitcoin is seen at the level of $16,000, so any correction or local pull-back should be used to open the buy orders. This scenario is valid as long as the level of $10,000 is broken.

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Technical Analysis of GBP/USD for November 13, 2020

Technical Market Outlook:

The recent GBP/USD rally was capped at the level of 1.3306, because a Pin Bar and then a Shooting Star candlestick were made at its top. Currently, the price has broken below 38% of Fibonacci retracement 1.3133 and made a new low at the level of 1.3105. The next technical support is seen at the level of 1.3078 and 1.3121. Please notice, the market is coming off the overbought conditions, which supports the short-term bearish outlook as long as the technical resistance at the level of 1.3169 is not broken.

Weekly Pivot Points:

WR3 - 1.3631

WR2 - 1.3400

WR1 - 1.3312

Weekly Pivot - 1.3083

WS1 - 1.2991

WS2 - 1.2762

WS3 - 1.2666

Trading Recommendations:

The GBP/USD pair is in the down trend on the monthly time frame, but the recent bounce from the low at 1.1411 made in the middle of March 2020 looks very strong and might be a reversal swing. In order to confirm the trend change, the bulls have to break through the technical resistance seen at the level of 1.3518. All the local corrections should be used to enter a buy orders as long as the level of 1.2674 is not broken.

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Daily Video Analysis: GBPUSD (Impulsive Wave 5!)

Today we take a look at GBPUSD. Combining advanced technical analysis methods such as Fibonacci confluence, correlation, market structure, oscillators and demand/supply zones, we identify high probability trading setups.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Daily Video Analysis: GBPUSD (Impulsive Wave 5!)

Today we take a look at GBPUSD. Combining advanced technical analysis methods such as Fibonacci confluence, correlation, market structure, oscillators and demand/supply zones, we identify high probability trading setups.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Daily Video Analysis: GBPUSD (Impulsive Wave 5!)

Today we take a look at GBPUSD. Combining advanced technical analysis methods such as Fibonacci confluence, correlation, market structure, oscillators and demand/supply zones, we identify high probability trading setups.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Analysis and trading recommendations for the EUR/USD and GBP/USD pairs on November 13

Analysis of transactions in the EUR / USD pair

The euro moved down 35 pips yesterday amid weak economic statistics. The latest reports said Germany's final CPI rose just 0.1% in October, and is down 0.2% year on year. Industrial production in the euro area also dropped by 0.4% in September, after growing by 0.6% in August this year. This proved to be enough incentive for the bears to become dominant in the market, thus, short positions arose at the level 1.1761. Surprisingly though, long positions also appeared at the level of 1.1790, which kind of recouped the losses.

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Trading recommendations for November 13

A number of economic reports for the eurozone economy are coming out today, one of which is the data on EU GDP. If the figure turns out weaker than expected, pressure on the European currency will return. To add to that, there will be reports on US consumer sentiment and inflation expectations, which may strengthen the position of the US dollar. It seems that everything is now playing against the euro, and only good statistics will allow it to rise.

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  • Open a long position when the euro reaches a quote of 1.1820 (green line on the chart), and then take profit at the level of 1.1863. Growth will occur only in the event of very good data on EU Q3 GDP.
  • Open a short position when the euro reaches a quote of 1.1795 (red line on the chart, and then take profit around the level of 1.1749. Sell the euro only if the EU GDP and employment report comes out worse than economists' forecasts.

Analysis of transactions in the GBP / USD pair

Pressure on the pound returned after the release of economic reports for the UK. Latest assessments indicate that UK GDP grew by 15.5% in the 3rd quarter, as compared to the 2nd quarter of 2020. But if it is compared to the data last year, the economy sank 9.6%.

Since this figure was not enough incentive for the pound bulls (as they were counting on a larger economic recovery), the GBP / USD pair declined by 35 pips yesterday, thanks to the short positions set at the level of 1.3197. After that, it decreased again by about 45 pips and reached the target value of 1.3153.

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Trading recommendations for November 13

The movement of the pound will rely on US reports today, in particular, over good data on consumer sentiment and inflationary expectations. Strong performance will lead to another USD rally in the market.

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  • Open a long position when the quote reaches the level of 1.3129 (green line on the chart), and then take profit around the level of 1.3180 (thicker green line on the chart). Good news over Brexit or weaker economic data in the US could raise demand for the British pound.
  • Open a short position when the quote reaches the level of 1.3108 (red line on the chart). A breakout of this range will bring pressure back to the pair, which will push the pound towards the level of 1.3052.
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Technical Analysis of EUR/USD for November 13, 2020

Technical Market Outlook:

After the EUR/USD pair has hit the 50% Fibonacci retracement of the last wave up located at the level of 1.1761 the market conditions become oversold at the H4 time frame and the price bounced. The short-term trend line had been violated and the market made a high at the level of 1.1822 (61% Fibonacci retracement on weekly time frame). Nevertheless, the bounce is corrective in nature and might be terminated shortly. The next target for bears is seen at the level of 61% Fibonacci retracement seen at 1.1732. The nearest technical resistance is located at 1.1835 and will act as a intraday level. The weak and negative momentum supports the short-term bearish outlook.

Weekly Pivot Points:

WR3 - 1.2308

WR2 - 1.2092

WR1 - 1.2015

Weekly Pivot - 1.1812

WS1 - 1.1717

WS2 - 1.1522

WS3 - 1.1441

Trading Recommendations:

Since the middle of March 2020 the main trend is on EUR/USD pair has been up, which can be confirmed by almost 10 weekly up candles on the weekly time frame chart and 4 monthly up candles on the monthly time frame chart. The recent correction towards the level of 1.1612 seems to be completed and now market is ready for another wave up. This means any local corrections should be used to buy the dips until the key technical support is broken. The key long-term technical support is seen at the level of 1.1445. The key long-term technical resistance is seen at the level of 1.2555.

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Forecast for USD/JPY on November 13, 2020

USD / JPY

The Japanese yen, under yesterday's pressure from the stock market, strengthened (decreased on the chart) by 29 pips, breaking the support of the MACD line on the daily chart. Then, today during the Asian session, the USD / JPY pair lost the same amount, and in order for the quotes to continue the decline, the bears have to overcome the support of the price channel at 104.75. Around the same time, the Marlin Oscillator will move into negative territory, which will strengthen the declining market sentiment. The target of the movement will be the level of 104.05, which is near the lows reached on October 29 and September 21.

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The four-hour chart shows that the MACD line (104.52) is located slightly below the level of 104.75. Therefore, to ensure that the pair does not fall under the price channel, the quotes have to fall below the MACD line. Converging the price with the Marlin Oscillator will be effective for this, especially since at the moment, the signal line has already entered the zone of negative values. The prevailing scenario is bearish, and a consolidation below 104.05 will certainly trigger a downward move towards 103.18.

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Forecast for GBP / USD on November 13, 2020

GBP / USD

The British pound crossed the MACD line in the past few days, however, yesterday, it pulled back and went below it. Such is a sign of a false exit above the line, therefore, a further decline is expected to occur in the GBP / USD pair.

But for now, a possible second consolidation above the MACD line could occur, as indicated by the Marlin oscillator still being in the zone of positive values.

If the price moves below the target level of 1.3050, the bearish mood will intensify in which the quotes will the levels: 1.2930, 1.2860, 1.2770.

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The situation in the H4 chart also shows that the pound is very close to the MACD line, and its next move is most likely a consolidation below it. In particular, the quotes will move below 1.3050, and although this task is quite difficult, it is doable in about two days.

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GBP/USD: plan for the European session on November 13. COT reports. Bears recall Brexit and the lockdown of the British economy

To open long positions on GBP/USD, you need:

In yesterday's afternoon forecast, I drew attention to sell positions on the pound after the breakout and getting the pair to settle below the 1.3172 level. However, I advised you to do so only if an important condition was met, which it did. Let's take a look at the 5-minute chart and break down the entry point. We see how the breakout of 1.3172, which took place at the beginning of the US session, did not provide a convenient entry point to the market. I said that it is necessary to wait for the pair to return to the 1.3172 level and that it should be tested from the bottom up, which happened. After fulfilling this condition, a good signal to sell the pound appeared, which caused the pair to fall by more than 60 points. Unfortunately, we barely reached the target value of 1.3094.

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The bulls should protect support at 1.3094 for the first half of the day, which will be tested in the near future. Forming a false breakout there will stop the bearish momentum, which will boost buyers' confidence and return GBP/USD to the resistance area of 1.3172, which is where the entire fall occurred yesterday. Moving averages pass in the same range, so I recommend taking profit there. The high of 1.3248 should be the next goal, but this is more like a fantasy, since it is impossible to get there without good news on Brexit. In case bulls are not active in the 1.3094 area, it is best not to rest against the trend, but to postpone taking short positions until a new low at 1.3034 has been tested, which is where you can buy the pound immediately on a rebound in its first test, counting on a correction of 20-30 points within the day.

To open short positions on GBP/USD, you need:

The bears coped with the task of protecting resistance at 1.3172, forming an excellent sell signal from it, which was fully realized. Apparently, testing the target level of 1.3094 is very close. How sellers behave at this level can determine the pair's succeeding direction. If buyers are not active at this level, getting the pair to settle below 1.3094 and testing it from the bottom up will produce a good signal to sell GBP/USD in hopes of renewing new lows around 1.3034 and 1.2976, where I recommend taking profits. Considering that there is no good news on Brexit, and it is unlikely that there will be any, one can bet that the pound will weaken further. In case GBP/USD grows in the first half of the day, I recommend not to rush to sell, but to wait until resistance at 1.3172 has been updated, where the moving averages also pass, playing on the side of sellers. Forming a false breakout at this level forms a good signal to sell the pound, in hopes to bring back the bear market. In case sellers are not active there, I recommend postponing short positions until the high of 1.3248 has been tested, where you can sell the pound immediately on a rebound, counting on a correction of 20-30 points within the day.

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The Commitment of Traders (COT) report for November 3 showed a reduction in long positions and a slight increase in short ones. Long non-commercial positions fell from 31,799 to 27,701. At the same time, short non-profit positions only rose to 38,928, from 38,459. As a result, the negative non-commercial net position was 11,227, against 6,660 a week earlier, which indicates that sellers of the British pound remain in control and have a minimal advantage in the current situation.

Indicator signals:

Moving averages

Trading is carried out below 30 and 50 moving averages, which indicates the likelihood of sustaining the downward correction.

Note: The period and prices of moving averages are considered by the author on the H1 hourly chart and differs from the general definition of the classic daily moving averages on the daily D1 chart.

Bollinger Bands

A breakout of the lower border of the indicator around 1.3094 will increase the pressure on the pair. Growth will be limited by the upper level of the indicator in the 1.3172 area.

Description of indicators

  • Moving average (moving average, determines the current trend by smoothing out volatility and noise). Period 50. It is marked in yellow on the chart.
  • Moving average (moving average, determines the current trend by smoothing out volatility and noise). Period 30. It is marked in green on the chart.
  • MACD indicator (Moving Average Convergence/Divergence — convergence/divergence of moving averages) Quick EMA period 12. Slow EMA period to 26. SMA period 9
  • Bollinger Bands (Bollinger Bands). Period 20
  • Non-commercial speculative traders, such as individual traders, hedge funds, and large institutions that use the futures market for speculative purposes and meet certain requirements.
  • Long non-commercial positions represent the total long open position of non-commercial traders.
  • Short non-commercial positions represent the total short open position of non-commercial traders.
  • Total non-commercial net position is the difference between short and long positions of non-commercial traders.
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EUR/USD: plan for the European session on November 13. COT reports. Euro froze, awaits data on GDP and employment

To open long positions on EUR/USD, you need:

It seems that everyone is stuck at the 1.1797 level, which is where we have been all week. Taking one or the other, there is no effective direction for any of the parties. A signal to buy the euro appeared after being able to settle above the 1.1797 level yesterday afternoon, but it was "on the thin side", so those who were outside the market did not lose anything. If you look at the 5-minute chart, you will see that the bulls failed to keep the pair higher after initially returning to the 1.1797 level. An increase in long positions could be observed forming a false breakout in this range, but it had low profitability.

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Nothing has changed from a technical point of view. Focus for the first half of the day will shift to important data on the European economy, since it may return the pressure on the euro. If buyers of the euro still manage to protect support at 1.1797, then forming the next false breakout there will be a good entry point into long positions, in hopes of moving to the resistance area of 1.1860, where I recommend taking profit. The next goal is the weekly high at 1.1915. If bulls are not that active, and the data turns out to be much worse than economists' forecasts, then it is possible for EUR/USD to return to the area below 1.1797. In this case, buyers will focus on protecting support at 1.1743 for the first half of the day. However, it is possible to open long positions from it on its initial test, counting on a correction of 15-20 points within the day. A larger reversal in favor of buyers will occur if they manage to form a false breakout at 1.1743.

To open short positions on EUR/USD, you need:

Sellers should return the 1.1797 level to themselves, which they missed yesterday morning and they also failed to do so after the release of weak fundamental statistics on US inflation. Getting the pair to settle below 1.1797 and testing it from the bottom up forms a more convenient entry point in order to sustain the downward trend. In this case, the nearest target of the bears will be the low of 1.1743. Testing this level will indicate the emergence of a new bear market for EUR/USD. However, only a breakout of this area can increase the pressure on the pair and will quickly pull it down to the 1.1701 low, where I recommend taking profits. If the bulls turn out to be stronger and continue to push the pair up after the release of data on the eurozone GDP and the unemployment rate, then it is best not to rush to sell, but instead you should wait until a larger resistance at 1.1860 has been updated. I recommend selling EUR/USD immediately on a rebound from a high of 1.1915 counting on a correction of 15-20 points within the day.

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The Commitment of Traders (COT) report for November 3 recorded a reduction in long positions and an increase in short positions. Despite this, buyers of risky assets believe in the continuation of the bull market, although they prefer to proceed with caution. Thus, long non-commercial positions fell from 217,443 to 208,237, while short non-commercial positions rose from 61,888 to 67,888. The total non-commercial net position fell to 140,349, from 155,555 a week earlier. However, the bullish sentiment on the euro remains rather high in the medium term, especially after the victory of Joe Biden, who intends to endow the US economy with the next largest monetary aid package worth more than $2 trillion.

Indicator signals:

Moving averages

Trading is carried out just above 30 and 50 moving averages, which indicates the likelihood of the euro's succeeding growth.

Note: The period and prices of moving averages are considered by the author on the H1 hourly chart and differs from the general definition of the classic daily moving averages on the daily D1 chart.

Bollinger Bands

Volatility has decreased, which does not provide signals to enter the market based on this indicator.

Description of indicators

  • Moving average (moving average, determines the current trend by smoothing out volatility and noise). Period 50. It is marked in yellow on the chart.
  • Moving average (moving average, determines the current trend by smoothing out volatility and noise). Period 30. It is marked in green on the chart.
  • MACD indicator (Moving Average Convergence/Divergence — convergence/divergence of moving averages) Quick EMA period 12. Slow EMA period to 26. SMA period 9
  • Bollinger Bands (Bollinger Bands). Period 20
  • Non-commercial speculative traders, such as individual traders, hedge funds, and large institutions that use the futures market for speculative purposes and meet certain requirements.
  • Long non-commercial positions represent the total long open position of non-commercial traders.
  • Short non-commercial positions represent the total short open position of non-commercial traders.
  • Total non-commercial net position is the difference between short and long positions of non-commercial traders.
The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

GBP/USD trading plan 13 November

GBP/USD sellers catch a breather around 1.3123 during Friday's Asian session. The cable refreshed weekly bottom the previous day before recently bouncing off 1.3106.

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The price zone around the previous channel's upper limit around 1.3100 puts a strong bearish pressure on the GBPUSD Pair. Where the upper limit of the current channel comes to meet this pair.

Though, additional pullback moves toward October's high near 1.3175 and then to the 1.3200 threshold can't be ruled out. Price action should be watched for a temporary profit taking pullback from the bears for signs of bearish pressure continuation as a valid SELL Entry can be grabbed .

Initial bearish movement target is located at 1.3000 which coincides with 50% Fibonacci retracement of bullish move since 23rd September. A relevent exit , S/L should be placed above 1.3300.

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Elliott wave analysis of GBP/JPY for November 13, 2020

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GBP/JPY has corrected towards the 50% corrective target at 137.68 and we see a clear loss of downside momentum. It means that the pair may reach a corrective low. To resume the upward movement, the pair needs to break above minor resistance at 138.13 and more importantly, resistance at 139.06, as that will confirm the next impulsive rally higher towards the former peak at 142.72 and beyond.

R3: 138.70

R2: 138.59

R1: 138.13

Pivot: 137.75

S1: 137.68

S2: 137.40

S3: 137.06

Trading recommendation:

We are long GBP from 135.45 and we have placed our stop at 137.45

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Elliott wave analysis of EUR/JPY for November 13, 2020

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EUR/JPY is expected to hit the target at 123.58 before starting to move higher again towards the former peak at 127.02 and ultimately above here to for a continuation towards the 129.06 target. In the longer-term, the pair may surge to higher levels but for now, the equality target at 123.58 will protect the downside and call for renewed upside pressure through minor resistance at 124.50 towards 127.02.

R3: 125.72

R2: 125.00

R1: 124.65

Pivot: 124.13

S1: 123.95

S2: 123.58

S3: 123.23

Trading recommendation:

We are long EUR from 122.25 with our stop placed at 123.25

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EURUSD – the path of least resistance

Since the beginning of the trading week, the US Dollar against the Euro has strengthened by 170 points (~1.5%) which is not so much on the scale of the week but here you should look not at the numerical indicator, at the behavior of investors and speculators, which as a result can give an understanding of the upcoming tact in the market.

What was the reversal of the upward movement?

In order to answer this question, we should recall the reason for the weakening of the US Dollar in the period of the past week. As we remember from previous analytical reviews, investors were wary of the United States presidential election, where a sell-off of the US Dollar occurred due to local uncertainty. As soon as it became known that the votes tipped the cup in favor of Joseph Biden, there was a recalculation of risks, which weakened short positions on the Dollar.

The desire of the current President, Donald trump, to interfere in the electoral process in the form of lawsuits has not yielded any results and if we proceed from rumors, Trump has almost lost ground and the White house will soon go to Biden.

"In recent days, Donald Trump does not have a clear strategy. The President was trying to find people who would tell him the good news. During one of the phone conversations, Trump said that he understands that Joe Biden will take office as President on January 20 and discussed his possible participation in the presidential race in 2024," the information was obtained by the Washington Post with reference to the presidential aide.

The second lever for changing the direction was the information about the COVID vaccine, where speculators on premature emotions painted the market green which was the impetus for long positions on the US Dollar.

The news about the vaccine has a positive effect on the economy and markets but here we are talking about the medium/long term-- if the vaccine works. What we saw during the current week is an exceptionally speculative hype from scratch.

The second wave of Coronavirus pandemic was stronger than it was during the winter and spring. Many EU countries have already passed the 1 million infection mark and the trend continues.

The head of the European Central Bank (ECB), Christine Lagarde, said during an online symposium that the news about the development of a vaccine is very good but the economy may face an uneven recovery, as consumers are scared of everything that is happening in the world.

"We are seeing a strong spread of the virus, and this has led to a new dynamic. While the latest news about the vaccine looks encouraging, we may still face repeated cycles of accelerating the spread of the virus and tightening restrictions until widespread immunity is achieved. As for economic recovery, the process may not be linear, but rather unstable, with pauses and dependence on the pace of vaccine deployment. In the meantime, output in the services sector will barely recover fully, " the ECB chief said during an online symposium.

From the above data, it follows that investors may reconsider the volume of short positions in the Dollar, where the deteriorating situation with the Coronavirus in Europe may lead to an increase in long positions in the Dollar.

In terms of technical analysis, we can see that in the period from Monday to Wednesday, a consistent decline was recorded, which led to the weakening of the Euro to the level of 1.1745. The resistance level was 1.1920, which is located in the same system with the area of interaction of trade forces 1.1900/1.1920, from fluctuations in the period 31.07-10.09.2020.

In simple words, the 1.1900/1.1920 area could play the role of a natural basis due to its history, which would also benefit short positions on the Euro.

As for the market dynamics for November 11, there is an acceleration of 9.6% relative to the average level. The activity of the day was 87 points, but the main volume fell on short positions in the period 09: 00-16: 30* (time on the trading terminal).

Looking at the trading chart in general terms (daily period), you can see the outlines of not just a corrective move relative to the upward tact of the past week but a full-fledged downward move which will subsequently lead to the restoration of Dollar positions. It is worth noting that from August to the current month, the Euro/Dollar currency pair has a medium-term side channel, where the recent peak of 1.1920 can be interpreted as touching the upper border.

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Today, in terms of the economic calendar, we have data on the volume of industrial production in Europe, where instead of slowing down the rate of decline, they record an acceleration from -6.7% to -6.8%. The situation is corrected by the fact that the previous indicator was revised for the better -7.2% to -6.8%.

During the US session, perhaps the most important indicator was inflation. So the consumer price index showed a slowdown from 1.4% to 1.2%. This is the first decline in inflation in four months of growth.

The divergence of expectations can have a negative play on the Dollar, but a local consideration.

Along with inflation, data on applications for unemployment benefits in the United States were published. They recorded another reduction in their volume.

The number of initial applications decreased from 757 thousand to 709 thousand and the volume of repeated applications for benefits decreased from 7,222 thousand to 6,786 thousand.

Data on the US labor market came out better than expected but it is quite problematic to compensate for inflation.

Analyzing the current trading chart, you can see a pullback relative to the minimum of 1.1745, where an acceleration occurred during the European session which led to a return of the quote to the area of the level of 1.1810.

In order to resume the downward interest, the quote needs to stay below the level of 1.1810, which will give confidence to sellers. The main volume of short positions will appear after passing the local minimum of the previous day which was 1.1745.

An alternative scenario will be considered by market participants if the quote is held higher than 1.1850 which will jeopardize the downward development of November 9.

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Indicator analysis

Analyzing a different sector of timeframes (TF), it is clear that the indicators of technical instruments on the minute and hour intervals occupy a downward position, signaling a sale due to the correction move from November 9 as well as fixing the price below the level of 1.1810. The daily period is still on the wave of upward inertia of the past week but there are signs of a change in interest.

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The volatility for the week / Measurement of volatility: Month, Quarter, and Year

The measurement of volatility reflects the average daily fluctuation, calculated for the Month, Quarter, and Year.

(November 12 was based on the time of publication of the article)

The Dynamics of the current time is 65 points, which is even lower than the average level by 18%. It can be assumed that the growth of activity may still occur due to the high coefficient of speculative operations in the market.

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Key level

Resistance zones: 1,1810*; 1,1910; 1,2000***; 1,2100*; 1,2450**; 1,2550; 1,2825.

Support areas: 1,1700; 1,1612*;1,1500; 1,1350; 1,1250*;1,1180**; 1,1080; 1,1000***.

* Periodic level

* * Range level

***Psychological level

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

AUD/USD Forecast for November 13, 2020

AUD / USD

Yesterday, the Australian dollar lost 47 points coming close to the target support of 0.7222. Resolute overcoming of the level opens the goal of 0.7120. The Marlin oscillator decreases on the daily scale creating a 55% probability of such a scenario. For greater confidence, the market lacks fixing the price under the balance line (red indicator), so there is a significant chance of a reversal and further growth to 0.7325.

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Based on the four-hour scale chart, the Kruzenshtern line is located near the 0.7222 level. Fixing under it will be a signal for the offensive of the "bears" in the struggle for supremacy. The goal is 0.7120.

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The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Hot forecast and trading signals for GBP/USD on November 13. COT report. Analysis of Thursday's deals. Friday recommendations

GBP/USD 1H

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The GBP/USD pair continued to correct throughout Thursday, November 12, and it reached an upward trend by the end of the day. Therefore, the upward trend is still present, as evidenced by the fact that the price is above the trend line. Bears remain rather weak for now, while bulls continue to dominate the market. Nevertheless, the EUR/USD pair has been falling for two consecutive days. If it does not rebound off the trend line, then we will write off the last two days' decline as a deep correction instead. Otherwise, the bears can take over the initiative in the market. Take note that the outlook for the pound remains vague due to the fundamental background from the UK. It is even difficult to say what exactly pushed the pair in recent weeks, since Great Britain did not particularly provide any information. Yes, the pound could have been supported by the fact that the House of Lords of the British Parliament rejected the Johnson Bill. However, this is an isolated case. As for the US presidential election, the markets have already digested this information, so it's time for the pound to start falling. We are leaning towards the option that the trend line will be broken.

GBP/USD 15M

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Both lower linear regression channels turned to the downside on the 15-minute timeframe, signaling an ongoing downward correction. The pair's quotes managed to overcome both the Kijun-sen line and the support area of 1.3160-1.3184. Therefore, a succeeding decline is only limited by the trend line on the hourly timeframe.

COT report

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The GBP/USD pair only lost 100 points during the last reporting week (October 27-November 2). The pound began to rise after November 2. And it wasn't so much of a rise, but more like the dollar's fall. However, let's go back to the reporting period. Non-commercial traders closed 3,281 Buy-contracts (longs) and opened 1,146 Sell-contracts (shorts). Thus, the net position for the "non-commercial" group of traders decreased by 4,500. This is much more clearly visible on the chart of the first indicator. The green and red lines, which represent the net positions of the two most important groups of traders, began to diverge in different directions. Therefore, the mood of professional traders is becoming more bearish again. However, this change did not result in the pound's decline. Because elections were already held in the United States on November 3 and the dollar was only getting cheaper then. Therefore, the new Commitment of Traders (COT) report may show that the bearish mood is weakening among professional traders. However, in any case, we believe that the markets need to calm down and only after that will it be possible to look at all the information in a new way. It is now clear that market participants are in a very agitated state due to the political chaos that is now present in the United States. Therefore, the mood of large traders can change quickly and dramatically.

The latest fundamentals for the British pound were disappointing. We have repeatedly listed all the problems of the British economy. And macroeconomic statistics regularly confirm this weakness. The third quarter GDP was released yesterday. The growth in quarterly terms was 15.5%. In annual terms, the reduction was 9.6%. The growth for the month of September was 1.1%. All three indicators turned out to be worse than analysts' forecasts. In addition, industrial production in the UK grew by only 0.5% m/m and decreased by 7.9% in annual terms. Both values are also worse than forecasted. Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey mentioned in his speech that the economy will recover from the coronavirus criss no earlier than the first half of 2022. He also noted the progress in the creation of a vaccine by Pfizer and expressed hope that the drug will soon enter mass production. On the whole, his speech was quite neutral. As did the speech of US Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell, who also spoke more about the vaccine than about the economy. Powell, however, warned the markets against being overly optimistic. He stated that despite the development of a vaccine, the next few months will still be quite difficult.

No major events scheduled for Friday in the UK. Therefore, traders will have to monitor news regarding Brexit, negotiations between Brussels and London, as well as any news from Donald Trump, who is extremely calm in the days after the elections. From a technical point of view, we are still waiting for the pound to drop. The main thing is that the fundamental background does not interfere with this.

We have two trading ideas for November 13:

1) Buyers for the pound/dollar pair were unable to overcome the resistance level of 1.3266 and fell to the upward trend line, which is still in force. Thus, we advise you to buy the pair if it rebounds from this line, while aiming for the Kijun-sen line (1.3201) and the resistance levels of 1.3266 and 1.3382. Take Profit in this case will be from 50 to 230 points.

2) Sellers do not own the initiative in the market. If the price settles below the trend line, the trend will change to a downtrend and then you can sell the pound/dollar pair while aiming for the Senkou Span B line (1.3030) and the support level of 1.2943. Take Profit in this case can range from 60 to 140 points.

Hot forecast and trading signals for EUR/USD

Explanations for illustrations:

Support and Resistance Levels are the levels that serve as targets when buying or selling the pair. You can place Take Profit near these levels.

Kijun-sen and Senkou Span B lines are lines of the Ichimoku indicator transferred to the hourly timeframe from the 4-hour one.

Support and resistance areas are areas from which the price has repeatedly rebounded off.

Yellow lines are trend lines, trend channels and any other technical patterns.

Indicator 1 on the COT charts is the size of the net position of each category of traders.

Indicator 2 on the COT charts is the size of the net position for the "non-commercial" group.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Hot forecast and trading signals for EUR/USD on November 13. COT report. Analysis of Thursday's deals. Friday recommendations

EUR/USD 1H

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The EUR/USD pair failed to continue moving down and began to correct on the hourly timeframe on Thursday, November 12. On the other hand, this upward movement can be the initial stage of bringing back the upward trend. If we consider the movement from November 4 as an upward trend, and the movement from November 9 as a correction within it, then it is quite possible to bring back the upward movement. However, since we still have neither a trend line nor a trend channel at our disposal, this hypothesis still remains without technical confirmation. And so traders still have to rely only on important lines and levels. For example, now the price is between the Senkou Span B and Kijun-sen lines. Both lines are important in the framework of the Ichimoku indicator. For example, getting the price to settle above the Kijun-sen will be a strong signal to bring back the upward trend. And vice versa. Overcoming the Senkou Span B line will be a strong signal to continue the new downward trend from November 9. At the same time, take note that the price continues to move within the horizontal channel at 1.1700-1.1900, which is where it was in for the last three months. Therefore, a flat is generally preserved in the longer term than the hourly timeframe.

EUR/USD 15M

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The linear regression channels moved up on the 15-minute timeframe. Therefore, we have some reason to believe that the upward trend will resume. At the same time, if traders fail to overcome the Kijun-sen line or manage to overcome the Senkou Span B line, the picture may change to the opposite. We would say that the pair's future movement depends on these two lines.

COT report

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The EUR/USD pair lost 170 points during the last reporting week (October 27-November 2). A strong upward movement began after this time range. Therefore, the fact that the pair gained 220 points simply does not fall within the timeframe of the latest Commitment of Traders (COT) report. According to it, professional traders closed 9,200 Buy-contracts (longs) and opened 7,800 Sell-contracts (shorts). Thus, the net position for non-commercial traders decreased by 17,000 at once. And any decrease in the net position indicates a strengthening of the bearish mood. Consequently, professional traders continue to look towards selling the euro. Therefore, even despite the subsequent growth, we still believe that the high near the 1.2000 level will still be the peak of the entire upward trend. At least the COT data continues to signal just that. The technical analysis may contradict the COT report, as the latter comes out with a three-day delay. We cannot now know how the big players behaved in the period from November 3 to 6, which is when the dollar was significantly falling due to the elections. Indicators are also signaling good prospects for a new downward trend, as the green and red lines continue to narrow (the first indicator). And they, we recall, reflect the net positions of non-commercial traders and commercial ones.

There were quite important macroeconomic reports on Thursday. For example, inflation in Germany remains at a negative level, which is in fact a deflation. And given the lockdown in Germany and many other EU countries, it is unlikely that it will accelerate any time soon. Consequently, the general European inflation is unlikely to show positive dynamics in the coming months. Industrial production in the EU was also disappointing, reaching 6.8% y/y and -0.4% m/m. Traders were counting on higher values. However, the euro strengthened during the day. That's because US reports weren't much better either. The US CPI started to slow down after strong performance in recent months, so the dollar didn't have much to be happy about either. The report on unemployment claims was also released, which were slightly better than expected. However, it no longer aroused any emotions among traders.

A report on Germany's GDP for the third quarter will be released today. A similar figure will be published for the EU as a whole. However, these are the second estimates of these indicators, which means traders are already absolutely ready for the predicted values, since they were published a month ago. Consequently, if there are no major changes in comparison with the first estimate, then traders might not react. The University of Michigan Consumer Confidence Index will be released today, which is also unlikely to cause a strong market reaction.

We have two trading ideas for November 13:

1) Buyers kept the pair above the Senkou Span B line (1.1760), which means they have a good chance of seizing the initiative. If the price settles above the Kijun-sen line (1.1833), then you are advised to open long positions while aiming for the resistance area of 1.1886-1.1912 and the resistance level 1.1976. Take Profit in this case will be from 30 to 120 points.

2) Bears started their trend, however, they came across a serious obstacle near the Senkou Span B line (1.1760). Thus, in order to be able to resume trading downward while aiming for the support area of 1.1692-1.1699 and 1.1612-1.1624, you need to wait for this line to be overcome. Take Profit in this case can range from 40 to 120 points.

Hot forecast and trading signals for GBP/USD

Explanations for illustrations:

Support and Resistance Levels are the levels that serve as targets when buying or selling the pair. You can place Take Profit near these levels.

Kijun-sen and Senkou Span B lines are lines of the Ichimoku indicator transferred to the hourly timeframe from the 4-hour one.

Support and resistance areas are areas from which the price has repeatedly rebounded off.

Yellow lines are trend lines, trend channels and any other technical patterns.

Indicator 1 on the COT charts is the size of the net position of each category of traders.

Indicator 2 on the COT charts is the size of the net position for the "non-commercial" group.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

EUR/USD. Red Color Release: US Inflation disappoints again

The European currency paired with the dollar held back the blow. Despite yesterday's onslaught from the EUR/USD bears, the pair held within the 17th figure and it almost completely regained the lost points today. The general conclusions from the current situation has a suggestion of: first, the dollar's position in the foreign exchange market looks quite shaky. The second conclusion is the opposite: it is too early to write off the Euro despite the second wave of the pandemic, lockdowns in European countries and the ECB's dovish comments. Figuratively speaking, the trading game in the EUR/USD pair follows the principle of "weak against weaker". And the role of the "weakest" does not always go to the single currency.

For example, today the dollar loosened its grip on the entire market even though the greenback dominated almost all currency pairs throughout the current week. The US currency has lost its appeal for two main reasons.

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First of all, the market has come to the conclusion that the initial optimism about success in developing a coronavirus vaccine is premature and exaggerated. Pfizer pharmacologists say they are in the final stages of testing a drug that provides 90 percent protection against COVID-19. But this is just one side of the coin, thanks to which the dollar has grown. The other side of the coin that is necessary to store and transport the vaccine at ultra-low temperatures (-70 C and below). At the same time, you can take it out of a special container for a short time no more than four times. Secondly, to achieve the desired effect, it is necessary to inject two doses of the drug and with a time interval. Third, according to the calculations of the world health organization, 70% of the world's population needs to be vaccinated in order to stop and eliminate the pandemic. Given the strict requirements for storage (and, consequently, transportation) of the drug, it will be very, very difficult to fulfill this condition. According to some estimates, this will take from 2 to 4 years (the minimum plan for the next year is to vaccinate 20% of the population).

The second factor of pressure on the dollar was today's release of data on the growth of US inflation. The General consumer price index on a monthly basis in October slowed to zero, while according to experts, the indicator was expected to fall to 0.1% (in September, it came out at 0.2%). In annual terms, the indicator also came out in the "red zone", slowing to 1.2% with a forecast of 1.3%. As for the core inflation index which does not take into account volatile food and energy prices, the situation is similar. On a monthly basis, the indicator fell to zero (with the forecast of a decline to 0.2%); on an annual basis, it decreased to 1.6% (against the forecast of growth to 1.8%).

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In other words, inflation is gradually but still slowing down and this process is already quite persistent. It is worth recalling that the head of the Federal Reserve Jerome Powell at the end of the summer announced a review of the Fed's strategy. The Central Bank has pledged to tolerate inflation above the two percent target without raising the interest rate. But judging by today's figures, we still need to reach the target level, and this path will not be easy. If inflation continues to show negative dynamics, the pressure on the greenback will increase, since the fate of the interest rate depends on the inflationary dynamics in the future.

The above fundamental factors allowed EUR/USD buyers to seize the initiative and return to the area of the 18th figure. At the moment, the pair is testing the resistance level of 1.1810, which corresponds to the upper limit of the Kumo cloud on the daily chart. If buyers can gain a foothold above this target, then we can consider long positions to the next resistance level of 1.1900 (the upper line of the BB indicator on the same timeframe). At the moment, this is the main price barrier, which is still "too tough" for EUR/USD buyers.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

GBPUSD – BIG sale or just preparation

The exchange rate of the British currency has strengthened by more than 600 points since the end of September. This has led to many false judgments that the market may resume a medium-term upward trend.

The reason for the pound's strengthening was repeatedly analyzed in previous analytical reviews. In a nutshell, this is not due to the prosperity of the UK economy, but to the total sales of the US dollar.

The reason behind the sale of the green paper is the US presidential election, where the logical ending of the "Reality Show" led to a reassessment of investors' risks and a reduction in the volume of short positions on the US dollar.

Back to reality, the coronavirus pandemic is at its highs, and quarantine number 2 is happening in the United Kingdom, which may be extended to stage 3. In turn, the Brexit trade negotiations between England and Brussels still do not have proper results, which leads to rumors about the extension of bilateral meetings for another week from November 16.

The parties are still negotiating and seem to be set up for a positive outcome. Despite this, as before, no one is ready to make concessions. Thus, the extension of negotiations for the next week does not cancel the signal of a hard exit, which leads to a weakening of positions on the pound sterling.

In terms of technical analysis, it is worth noting that the inertial upward move that was set during the past week led the quote to the resistance level of 1.3300, where there was a stop followed by a price rebound in the opposite direction.

The natural basis associated with the coordinates of 1.3300 dates back to 2018-2019, where there was a systematic reduction in the volume of long positions.

The price rebound from the 1.3300 level area in the period of November 11 confirms the strength of the natural basis, which as a result brings profit.

It is worth highlighting that when considering the peaks of 2019 and 2020 in detail, one must remember such coordinates as 1.3513 and 1.3480, which is also likely to lead to a reduction in the volume of long positions.

Back to the current situation with the price rebound from the level of 1.3300. The area of interaction of trading forces can have a positive effect on the volume of short positions, which, as a result, can lead to a corrective move relative to the seven-week ascent.

As for the dynamics for November 11, there is a slight slowdown of 7% relative to the average level. It is worth noting that the activity indicator above 100 points already signals a dynamic market, in our case, the activity of the past day was 116 points.

Looking at the trading chart in general terms (daily period), it is impossible to fail to notice that the seven-week upward trend led to a recovery relative to the 1.3480 - - - > 1.2674 tick, by almost 78%, which probably led to judgments about the resumption of the medium-term upward trend. In order to confirm the theory of trend renewal from the technical side, the quote needs to break through the highs of 1.3513 and 1.3480, fixing higher on the daily period.

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As per the economic calendar today, preliminary data on Britain's GDP for the third quarter were received, where the rate of economic decline slowed from -21.5% to -9.6%, but an even more optimistic forecast of -9.4% was expected. In turn, the rate of decline in UK industrial production slowed from -9.4% to -6.3%.

The pound, at the time of publication of statistical data, had a variable fluctuation without sharp changes.

During the American trading session, perhaps the most important indicator for today, inflation in the United States was published.

The inflation rate fell from 1.4% to 1.2%, with a forecast of growth to 1.5%. Divergence in expectations may have a local impact on the volume of long positions in the dollar.

Analyzing the current trading chart, it can be seen that market participants continue to gain the volume of short positions, which has already led to the return of quotes below the peak of October 21-1.3175.

What we have on the market is a small part of the downward movement, which is more similar to the correction movement relative to the past week.

The main volumes of short positions are expected by traders after passing the values of 1.3000 and the area of 1.2840/1.2880. Until this moment has come, we continue to work on the correction with the transition to the recovery process. The coordinates refer to the resumption of the September downward trend.

If you don't have any sell positions at the moment, then the optimal entry point can be the 1.3100 area with the prospect of 1.3000.

Alternative scenario will be considered if the correction stage from the local maximum of 1.3306 stops, which will exclude the transition to the recovery process.

For this reason, it is recommended to enter positions for sale after the area of 1.3100.

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Indicator analysis

Analyzing a different sector of timeframes (TF), it can be seen that the indicators of technical instruments in minute and hour intervals follow the corrective course, signaling a sale. The daily interval continues to reflect the upward trend of the past week.

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Weekly volatility / Volatility Measurement: Month; Quarter; Year.

Volatility measurement reflects the average daily fluctuation, based on the calculation for the Month / Quarter / Year.

(November 11 was based on the time of publication of the article)

The dynamics of the current time is 96 points, which is another 23% below the average level. Volatility may continue to grow if the volume of short positions in the pound sterling continues to grow. Otherwise, the growth of dynamics will stall.

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Key levels

Resistance zones: 1,3300**; 1,3600; 1,3850; 1,4000***; 1,4350**.

The support area: 1,3175(1,3200); 1,3000***; 1,2840/1,2860/1,2885; 1,2770**; 1,2620; 1,2500; 1,2350**; 1,2250; 1,2150**; 1,2000*** (1,1957);1,1850; 1,1660; 1,1450 (1,1411).

* Periodic level

** Band level

***Psychological level

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com