Technical analysis of USD/JPY for Sep 23, 2014

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Fundamental Overview:


USD/JPY is expected to consolidate with a bearish bias. Liquidity was thin in Asia Tuesday as financial markets in Japan were shut today for a public holiday. USD/JPY is undermined by the flows to haven JPY and unwinding of JPY-funded carry trades amid increased risk aversion (VIX fear gauge rose 13.05% to 13.69, S&P 500 closed 0.8% lower at 1,994.29 overnight) as worries mount over global growth after China's Finance Minister Lou Jiwei said the Chinese economy is facing downward pressure, but Beijing won't "make major policy adjustments" due to changes in any individual economic indicator, dampening hopes for aggressive easing of policies. USD/JPY is also weighed by the buy-yen orders from Japan exporters, lower U.S. Treasury yields (10-year at 2.566% versus 2.587% late Friday) and weaker dollar sentiment (ICE spot dollar index last 84.68 versus 84.74 early Monday) after surprise 1.8% drop in U.S. existing home sales to 5.05 million in August (versus forecast of 1.0% increase to 5.2 million), fall in Chicago Fed's National Activity Index to minus 0.21 in August from plus 0.26 in July. But USD/JPY losses are tempered by the sell-yen orders from Japanese importers and ultra-loose Bank of Japan's monetary policy.


Technical comment:
The daily chart is still positive-biased as MACD is bullish, stochastics stays elevated in the overbought zone, 5 and 15-day moving averages are advancing, although inside-day-range pattern was completed on Monday.


Trading recommendations:
The pair is trading above its pivot point. It is likely to trade in a higher range as far as it remains above its pivot point. As long as the price is keeping above its pivot point, a long position is recommended with the first target at 109.15 and the second target at 109.45. In an alternative scenario, if the price moves below its pivot points, short positions are recommended with the first target at 108.15. A break of this target would push the pair further downwards and one may expect the second target at 107.65. The pivot point is at 108.45.


Resistance levels:

109.15

109.45

110


Support levels:

108.15

107.65

107.10


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Technical analysis of USD/CHF for Sep 23, 2014

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Fundamental Overview:


USD/CHF is expected to consolidate with a bearish bias. It is supported by the franc sales on soft CHF/JPY cross and on buoyant EUR/CHF cross and dovish Swiss National Bank's monetary policy. But USD/CHF upside is limited by the lower U.S. Treasury yields (10-year at 2.566% versus 2.587% late Friday), weaker dollar sentiment (ICE spot dollar index last 84.68 versus 84.74 early Monday) after surprise 1.8% drop in U.S. existing home sales to 5.05 million in August (versus forecast of 1.0% increase to 5.2 million), fall in Chicago Fed's National Activity Index to minus 0.21 in August from plus 0.26 in July, Kiwi demand on soft AUD/NZD cross and NZD-USD interest differential.


Technical Comments:
The daily chart is still positive-biased as MACD is bullish, stochastics stays elevated in the overbought zone, five and 15-day moving averages are advancing.


Trading recommendations:


The pair is trading below its pivot point. It is likely to trade in a lower range as far as it remains below its pivot point. Short position is recommended with the first target at 0.9340. A break of this target will move the pair further downwards to 0.9295. The pivot point stands at 0.9410. In case the price moves in the opposite direction and bounces back from the support level, then it will moves above its pivot point. It is likely to move further to the upside. In that scenario, a long position is recommended with the first target at 0.9435 and the second target at 0.9460.


Resistance levels:

0.9435

0.9460

0.9480



Support levels:


0.9340

0.9295

0.9270


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Technical analysis of NZD/USD for Sep 23, 2014

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Fundamental Overview:


NZD/USD is expected to consolidate with a bearish bias. NZD/USD is undermined by Kiwi sales on soft NZD/JPY cross amid increased investor risk aversion and weak commodity prices. But NZD/USD losses are tempered by the lower U.S. Treasury yields (10-year at 2.566% versus 2.587% late Friday), weaker dollar sentiment (ICE spot dollar index last 84.68 versus 84.74 early Monday) after surprise 1.8% drop in U.S. existing home sales to 5.05 million in August (versus forecast of 1.0% increase to 5.2 million), fall in Chicago Fed's National Activity Index to minus 0.21 in August from plus 0.26 in July, Kiwi demand on soft AUD/NZD cross and NZD-USD interest differential.


Technical Comment:
The daily chart is negative-biased as MACD is bearish, stochastics stays suppressed in the oversold zone, 5 and 15-day moving averages are falling.


Trading recommendations:
The pair is trading below its pivot point. It is likely to trade in a lower range as far as it remains below its pivot point. Short position is recommended with the first target at 176.75. A break of this target will move the pair further downwards to 175.80. The pivot point stands at 178.75. In case the price moves in the opposite direction and bounces back from the support level, then it will moves above its pivot point. It is likely to move further to the upside. In that scenario, a long position is recommended with the first target at 179.15 and the second target at 179.90.


Resistance levels:

0.8145

0.8180

0.82


Support levels:

0.8045

0.8

0.7975


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Technical analysis of GBP/JPY for Sep 23, 2014

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Fundamental Overview:


GBP/JPY is expected to trade in a lower range. It is weighed by the increased investor risk aversion. Downside movement is dented by the GBP demand on buoyant GBP/AUD, GBP/NZD, GBP/CAD crosses, weaker USD sentiment and sterling demand on soft EUR/GBP cross.


Technical Comment:
The daily chart is mixed as MACD is bullish, five day moving average is above 15-day MA and is advancing but stochastics is bearish in the overbought zone.


Trading recommendations:
The pair is trading below its pivot point. It is likely to trade in a lower range as far as it remains below its pivot point. Short position is recommended with the first target at 176.75. A break of this target will move the pair further downwards to 175.80. The pivot point stands at 178.75. In case the price moves in the opposite direction and bounces back from the support level, then it will moves above its pivot point. It is likely to move further to the upside. In that scenario, a long position is recommended with the first target at 179.15 and the second target at 179.90.


Resistance levels:

179.15

179.90

180.35

Support levels:

176.75

175.80

175.05


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Technical analysis of USD/JPY for September 23, 2014


Technical outlook and chart setups:


The USD/JPY looks to be setting up for a correction into 105.20/30 levels at least before rallying higher towards fresh highs. Please note that 105.20/30 is also resistance turned into support as depicted here on the daily chart view. The USD/JPY pair has has potential to push through 110.00 levels and higher as well, but a meaningful correction could be due for now. Immediate support is seen at 106.20/30 (fibonacci), followed by 105.20, 103.00 and lower, while resistance is at 109.40/50 (interim) for now. It is recommended to remain flat for now and initiate long positions on a dip. Aggressive trade setup is to initiate short positions now, risk remains above 109.50.


Trading recommendations:


Aggressive trade setup is to go short now (108.60), stop above 109.50, target 105.40/50.


Conservative trade setup is to remain flat, look to buy lower around 105.20/30.


Good luck!


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Technical analysis of GBP/USD for September 23, 2014


Technical outlook and chart setups:


The GBP/USD is already set to have resumed a structural bull run since 1.4800 levels (a double bottom was confirmed in July 2013) as seen on the daily chart view here. Since July 2014, the pair has been correcting itself and it looks like it has just completed its first corrective leg at the 1.6100 level before bouncing back. The current rally could extent up to the 1.6800/1.6900 levels before the pair resumes the final corrective wave towards 1.5700/50 levels. Please also note that 1.5700/50 levels converge with the fibonacci 0.618 support of the entire rally from 1.4800 to 1.7100 as depicted here. It is recommended to initiate long positions around 1.6250/1.6300 levels, for an extended pullback higher.


Trading recommendations:


Flat for now, look to enter long around 1.6250/1.6300, stop below 1.6100, target 1.6800/1.6900.


Good luck!


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EUR/NZD analysis for September 23, 2014

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Overview:


Since our last analysis, EUR/NZD has been trading upwards. As we expected, the price tested the level of 1.5913. Our Fibonacci expansion 100% at the price of 1.5760 held successful, which caused price to start bullish continuation. We may expect testing the level of 1.5930 (swing high like resistance). Anyway, if the price breaks the level of 1.5930 (swing high like resistance), we may see potential testing the level of 1.6000 (Fibonacci expansion 100%). Be careful when selling and watch for potential buying opportunities after retracement. According to the 4H time frame, we can observe demand in a volume above average, which is a good sign for potential bullish continuation.


Daily Fibonacci pivot levels :


Resistance levels:


R1: 1.5852


R2: 1.5884


R3: 1.5936


Support levels:


S1: 1.5748


S2: 1.5716


S3: 1.5664


Trading recommendations: Be careful when selling the EUR/NZD pair since we may see further upward movement.


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GBP/USD intraday technical levels and trading recommendations for September 23, 2014

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In July 15, extensive bearish impulse was initiated. Since then, the GBP/USD pair has been downtrending limited by the depicted downtrend line.


Two successive bearish impulses were initiated around 1.7180 and 1.6630 corresponding to the trend line.


Price level of 1.6140 constitutes a prominent weekly support to meet the pair. Bullish rejection was witnessed in the recent daily candlesticks ( note the bullish engulfing daily candlestick which emerged on Thursday). This led to a bullish weekly closure ( above the weekly support level around 1.6250 ).


Retracement towards the price zone of 1.6350-1.6400 took place as expected where a new bearish impulse is expected to be applied offering a valid low-risk sell entry. Stop loss should be set as daily closure above 1.6460.


This price zone corresponds to the upper limit of the depicted channels as well as prominent Fibonacci level of the recent bearish impulse between 1.7180 and 1.6060.


This probably offers a valid SELL opportunity as long as the bears keep defending price zone of 1.6480-1.6530 ( 23.6% Fibonacci level and previous bottom ).


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Technical analysis of USD/CAD for September 23, 2014

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Overview :



  • The key level of USD/CAD pair has set at the level of 1.0990. Therefore, this level is going to act as the strong orbit price today. As it is known, history will probably repeat itself at this level again. According to the previous events, the USD/CAD pair is still moving between 1.1040 and 1.0990. Just like that, the supports have set at the levels of 1.0990, 1.0960 and 1.0930 which coincides with the ratios of 61.8%, 50% and 38.2% Fibonacci retracement levels respectively. On the other hand, resistance has already placed at the price of 1.1040 near the ratio of 78.6% Fibonacci which represents strong resistance on 23 September 2014. Sell at the price of 1.1040 with the first target at 1.0990, then it will continue towards 1.0960 in order to test the weekly support 2. However, the trend could to fail to close below the level of 1.0960 in H1 chart. Consequently, buy above the 1.0960 or/and 1.0930 prices with the target at 1.1035. It should also be noted that the level of 1.1040 represents the weekly resistance 1. Notwithstanding, it has to review the market volatility before investing, because the sight price may have already been reached and scenarios might have become invalidated.


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Elliott wave analysis of EUR/NZD for September 23 - 2014

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Today's support and resistance levels:


R3: 1.5900


R2: 1.5872


R1: 1.5859


Current spot: 1.5825


S1: 1.5814


S2: 1.5794


S3: 1.5774


Technical summary:


We have seen the first impulsive rally from 1.5717 to 1.5857. The pair is currently consolidating and building strength to the next impulsive rally higher towards 1.6203 on the way higher to 1.6407. In the short term, we should ideally see minor support at 1.5814 to protect the downside for a break above 1.5859 confirming that the next impulsive rally is building. Only a break below 1.5813 will delay the expected rally for more consoldiation and a move closer to 1.5788 before higher again.


Trading recommendation:


We are long in EUR from 1.5826 with stop placed at 1.5735. If you are not long in EUR yet, then buy here or upon a break above 1.5859 with the same stop.


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Technical analysis of USD/CHF for September 23, 2014

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Overview :



  • According to previous events, the price of the USD/CHF pair has still been moving between 0.9390 and 0.9350. Also it should be noted that the psychological level has set at the 0.9320 price which represents a strong support on 22 September 2014. As it is shown in H1 chart resistance has already set at the level of 0.9415 and the double top placed at the 0.9432 level. Therefore, sell deals are recommended below the 0.9432 - 0.9415 spot with targets at the level of 0.9360. Moreover, the price of the USD/CHF pair is going to try break the daily pivot point at 0.9360 to call for the bearish market below 0.9360. Hence, the price will continue moving towards the level of 0.9320 in order to form a double bottom at this level in H1 chart. On the other hand, the stop loss should always be in account, so it will be wise to set your stop loss at the 0.9450 price.


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Elliott wave analysis of EUR/JPY for September 23 - 2014

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Today's support and resistance levels:


R3: 140.40


R2: 140.20


R1: 139.87


Current spot: 139.64


S1: 139.51


S2: 139.27


S3: 139.05


Technical summary:


The correction in wave ii has become slightly more complex, than first anticipated. However, it does not change anything in the slightly larger picture. So, it should be just a matter of time before we see a break above minor resistance at 139.87 and more importantly above resistance at 140.20 for a new rally higher to 141.22 on the way towards strong resistance at 143.79, which is where the real battle will be fought. Only an unexpected break below support at 138.46 will invalidate the imediately bullish count.


Trading recommendation:


We are long in EUR from 135.95 with stop placed at 139.05. If you are not long in EUR yet, then buy a break above 139.87 with the same stop at 139.05.


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Intraday analysis of USD/CHF for September 23, 2014

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As of now this week, the pair made a double top at 0.9412 and is trading below 200WEma in the weekly chart. The US dollar is facing strong resistance at the level of $85. If this taken off, huge potential upside will appear. On the downside, the pair has support at 0.9380, below this some selling will take place towards the nearest support zone between 0.9330-0.93. If a daily close is below 0.93, bears will have an upper hand in the near-term future. The daily Stochastics is indicating a bullish sign.


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For an intraday view, the pair is trading at 0.9393. The prices are trading between 35DEMA and 21hrsma. The pair will face some selling pressure below 0.9380 and towards 0.9360. Strong selling will emerge only below 0.9360 with downside targets at 0.9350, 0.9340, and 0.9330.


Fresh buy only above 0.9455 strong up move will take once it breach the 0.9455


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Technical analysis of EUR/USD for September 23, 2014

When the European market opens, some economic news will be released such as French Flash Manufacturing PMI, French Flash Services PMI, German Flash Manufacturing PMI, German Flash Services PMI, Flash Manufacturing PMI, Flash Services PMI. The US will release the economic data too such as the HPI m/m, Flash Manufacturing PMI, Richmond Manufacturing Index, so amid the reports, EUR/USD will move with low volatility during this day.

TODAY TECHNICAL LEVELS:

Breakout BUY Level: 1.2911.

Strong Resistance:1.2904.

Original Resistance: 1.2891.

Inner Sell Area: 1.2878.

Target Inner Area: 1.2848.

Inner Buy Area: 1.2818.

Original Support: 1.2805.

Strong Support: 1.2792.

Breakout SELL Level: 1.2785.

Disclaimer: Trading Forex (foreign exchange) on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.


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Technical analysis of USD/JPY for September 23, 2014

In Asia, Japan will not release any economic data, but the US will release some economic data such as HPI m/m, Flash Manufacturing PMI, Richmond Manufacturing Index. So there is a big probability the USD/JPY will move with low volatility during the day.

TODAY TECHNICAL LEVELS:

Resistance. 3: 109.73.

Resistance. 2: 109.51.

Resistance. 1: 109.30.

Support. 1: 109.03.

Support. 2: 108.82.

Support. 3: 108.60.

Disclaimer: Trading Forex (foreign exchange) on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.


The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Medium-term forecast and an intraday recommendation on GBP/JPY for September 23, 2014

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The pair managed to breach the 200MSma for the first time in the monthly chart after the 2008 fall. A monthly close above 177.65 (200MSma) leads to further bullish move in the short term. The Scottish referendum adds bullish view for the pound and the yen. If the USD index breaches the $85 mark, the yen will weaken further in the future, which adds bullish view in this pair in the short term towards 183 and 185-186. This view adds fuel once the pair is able to close above 200MSma on a monthly basis, still 6 trading days are left. The pair has strong support at 170 for the short- and medium-term basis.


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For an intraday view, the prices are closed below 35DEMA. The prices have been holding 12ema at 177.90, below this, 177.50 and 176.50 are the major support levels. The pair will face some selling pressure below 176.50 towards the breakout level. On the other hand pair has resistance at 178.35, above this, it can fly up to 178.70 and 179.90 levels. We can see strong up move above 179.90 levels.


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Technical analysis of EUR/JPY for September 23, 2014


Technical outlook and chart setups:


The EUR/JPY pair has corrected itself into 139.60 levels after printing highs at 141.30 last week. A minimum correction required, to initiate fresh long positions would be around 139.15 levels. Please note that 139.10/15 is also the fibonacci 0.382 support of the rally between 135.85 and 141.20/30. The upside potential still remains intact at 142.50 levels. Immediate support is seen at 139.00 levels, followed by 138.50, 138.00 and lower, while immediate resistance is seen at 141.50, followed by 142.30 levels. Furthermore, please keep in mind the larger structure which indicates a possibility of a higher top above 145.00 levels in coming weeks.


Trading recommendations:


Look to again buy around 139.00 levels at least.


Good luck!




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Technical analysis of GBP/CHF for September 23, 2014


Technical outlook and chart setups:


The GBP/CHF pair might be ready to pullback further into the 1.5200's as depicted here. An aggressive trade setup could be to initiate short positions at current levels (1.5480/85), risk remains just above 1.5450 for now. Immediate support is seen at 1.5250, followed by 1.5100, 1.4975 and lower, while resistance is at 1.5450 respectively. Please note that this fall is just an expected correction and that the pair should resume uptrend around the 1.5200 support. Potential upside targets for GBP/CHF still remains at 1.5500 and 1.5800 respectively. A conservative trade setup would be to wait for a dip into the 1.5200, to initiate long positions again. The 1.4975 level is a critical support for bulls to remain in control.


Trading recommendations:


Aggressive setup would be to go short now, stop above 1.5450, target is at 1.5200


Conservative trade setup would be to remain flat for now and turn long at 1.5200.


Good luck!


The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Technical analysis of Silver for September 23, 2014


Technical outlook and chart setups:


Silver produced a doji(hammer) yesterday after printing lows at $17.30 levels. This could be an indication of a potential reversal or a pullback due, into the $18.60 and $19.00 levels. Also note that past support turned resistance zone is around the same levels, as depicted here. The metal needs to clear at least $20.00 (break out of the immediate line of resistance) levels to confirm a further push towards $21.20/30. It the metal reverses fro around $18.60/$19.00 levels, potential remains of yet another low below $17.00 levels before reversal. It is recommended to wait for a bullish reversal confirmation on the daily chart view, to turn long.


Trading recommendations:


Remain flat for now. Look to initiate longs again on confirmation.


Good luck!


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Weekly forecast and an intraday analysis of GBP/USD for September 23-26, 2014

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The cable tried to come out of the descending 2-month trend line the previous week. It succeeded to come out of that, but was unable to close above that. The cable held the strong support at 1.60 50MSma, as we recommended in our earlier articles fresh selling is only below 1.60. This view hasn't activated till now. The pair started moving to 20Dsma and closed above that. It represents some bullishness in the near term. In yesterday's session the pair gave a handful of 70 pips on the upside, closed at the highest level of the day. Today the pair opened above the previous closing level representing a strong opening, testing its fortune at 20Dsma. The pair has support at 1.6350, as of now, a low made at 1.6358. If the pair holds the 20Dsma and closes above the triangle, further bullishness will add to the pair. The cable has initial resistance at 1.64, above this, it can fly up to 1.6466, 1.65, 1.6524 and 1.6590. The pair has strong short-term resistance at 1.66 50Wsma. On the down side, it has support at 1.6350, 1.6284 and 1.6246 levels. The weekly momentum indicators are indicating a bullish sign.


Support 1.6350 1.6284 1.6246


Resistance 1.64 1.6465 1.65


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For an intraday view, the prices are trading above the 12ema and 34hrsma. The pair has hourly support at 1.6350 and 1.6315, below this, 1.6280, 1.6246 and 1.6160 levels. Risky traders can buy with sl 1.6350 and safe traders, buy with sl 1.6315. Weakness will emerge below 1.6315 and panic will be triggered below 1.6280 levels. Buyers will mint the money in hourly trade.


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Short-term trend levels and an intraday recommendation for USD/CAD for September 23, 2014

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The US dollar is facing strong resistance at $85, if this takes off, huge potential upside will be expected. The pair made a double top at 1.11 levels after that the pair went through a healthy correction up to 50Dsma and closed above the near- and short-term moving averages. In yesterday's session, the pair made a strong close at higher levels. But, today, as of now, the pair opened higher representing a bearish view. We recommend fresh buying above 1.1044 for targets at 1.1072 and 1.1 levels. Above 1.1 we can see an immediate target at 1.1150, later at 1.12 and 1.1220 levels. The pair has a strong support zone between 1.0865 and 1.08464. A weekly closing basis below 50WSma, the NT and ST view looks bearish - use a dip to buy.


Support 1.0880, 1.0846, 1.0811


Resistance 1.1072, 1.1, 1.1150


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For an intraday view, we recommend buying above 1.1044. The pair has support at 1.1015, below this, at 1.09950 and 1.0975. Use a dip to buy or fresh safe selling only below 1.0975, risky traders can sell below 1.1015. Safe buyers can buy above 1.1044, risky traders can buy at cmp 1.1040.


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Daily analysis of USDX for September 23, 2014

Daily chart: The USDX has had a bullish momentum on the support level of 84.29, due to that this instrument is trying to form a bullish pattern. If the USDX manages to make a breakout at the level of 85.18, the next goal would be the level of 86.20 in the medium term. However, the USDX could begin to perform corrective movements. This MACD indicator is entering overbought zone.


USDXDaily.png

H4 chart: The USDX has formed a fractal at the support level of 84.52, so the USDX is trying to make a breakout at the resistance level of 85.06 to climb up to the level of 86.15. However, if the USDX consolidates below the level of 84.52, it's expected to fall to the level of 84.15, where the bullish trend line is. The MACD indicator is entering neutral territory.


USDXH4.png

H1 chart: The USDX has made a rebound on the support level of 84.60 and now, the USDX has formed a fractal at the resistance level of 84.81. If the USDX manages to make a breakout at that level, the next target would be the level of 85.03. The MACD indicator is moving into negative territory.


USDXH1.png


Trading recommendations for today: Based on the H1 chart, place buy (long) orders only if the USD Index breaks with a bullish candlestick; the resistance level is at 84.81, take profit is at 85.03, and stop loss is at 84.59.


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Daily analysis of GBP/USD for September 23, 2014

Daily chart: GBP/USD has made a pullback at the resistance level of 1.6447, so now this pair is trying to consolidate above the support level of 1.6326 to the 1.6447 level. If the GBP/USD manages to make a breakout at that level, it would be expected to rise to the level of 1.6540 in the short term. However, this pair remains strong in the current bullish bias. The MACD indicator is in positive territory.


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H4 chart: The GBP/USD has made a rebound on the bearish trend line above 1.6255. If the GBP/USD manages to make a breakout at the 1.6370 level, the following target would be the level of 1.6435, in which it is close to the 200-day moving average. This pair could meet resistance at the 200-day moving average. The MACD indicator is entering neutral territory.


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H1 chart: The GBP/USD has done has made a successful breakout at the level of 1.6338, and now this pair is trying to of makes a breakout at the 1.6375 level. If it succeeds, it would be expected to rise to the level of 1.6419. The MACD indicator stays in positive territory.


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Trading recommendations for today: Based on the H1 chart, place buy (long) orders only if the GBP/USD pair breaks a bullish candlestick; the resistance is at 1.6375, take profit is at 1.6419, and stop loss is at 1.6329.


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