Elliott wave analysis of GBP/JPY for September 12, 2019

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GBP/JPY tested short-term important support at 132.65 but failed to break through and is again testing resistance at 133.36. We continue to look for more downside pressure in in red wave ii for a dip to 130.06 and likely even closer to support at 129.41 before the next impulsive rally higher to 135.40 and above.

That said, we will stress that our preferred count, shows that the expected dip closer to 129.41 only is a correction in a more bullish pattern that longer term should take us much higher.

R3: 134.34

R2: 133.82

R1: 133.36

Pivot: 132.96

S1: 132.65

S2: 132.13

S3: 132.62

Trading recommendation:

We are looking for a GBP-buying opportunity near 129.50

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Elliott wave analysis of EUR/JPY for September 12, 2019

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EUR/JPY tested short-term important support at 118.27 but failed to break below to confirm wave c of ii lower towards 117.24. We continue to look for for more downside pressure through this short-term support at 118.27 confirming more downside pressure in wave c of ii.

That said, we also need to stress, that what we are looking for, is a short-term decline, before the next impulsive rally higher towards 123.13 and above.

R3: 119.88

R2: 119.59

R1: 119.29

Pivot: 118.75

S1: 118.51

S2: 118.28

S3: 117.91

Trading recommendation:

We are looking for a buying opportunity near 117.40

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Hot forecast for EUR/USD on 09/12/2019 and trading recommendation

It seems like yesterday was supposed to be extremely quiet and calm, but the single European currency still showed a steady downward movement. Although it was not much, but against the general background it is very noticeable. The reason lies in the banal rumors and assumptions regarding today's meeting of the Board of the European Central Bank. In the morning, in various media, rumors began to circulate that Mario Draghi could greatly surprise market participants, and the scale of the rate cuts would be somewhat larger than expected. Moreover, in all these messages there was no specifics as to which particular rates were involved. Is it a deposit rate, or a refinancing rate? It's completely not clear. Some heavy statements about interest rates in general. And given that investors's nerves are already strained to the limit, this turned out to be quite enough for the single European currency to lose its position.

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However, you should not think that the weakening of the single European currency is due solely to the information background, in the form of rumors and speculation. After only a few hours, investors received serious justification for the premature growth of the dollar, in the form of producer prices in the United States, the growth rate of which, more recently, should have slowed down. However, not only did not slow down, they accelerated from 1.7% to 1.8%.

Producer Price Growth (US):

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The main event of the day is the European Central Bank meeting, following which the deposit rate might be reduced from -0.4% to -0.5%. Almost no one doubts that the regulator will make such a decision. After all, the future head of the European Central Bank, Christine Lagarde, spoke about this in plain text. Such a decision itself means that if European banks want to keep available funds in custody of the regulator, then they will have to pay even more for this than now. Consequently, banks will have to lower rates on deposits that they accept from households and companies. This will lead to a partial outflow of capital from banks, and they will be forced to seek additional financing from the European Central Bank. Which, in order to avoid aggravation of the financial situation of banks, will already be forced to lower the refinancing rate. Thus, this is only the first step to mitigate monetary, which will inevitably have a negative impact on the single European currency.

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Nevertheless, the EUR/USD pair managed to break through the flat range of 1.1015/1.1065, which it held for several days in a row. The movement carried an impulsive character, but reflected a local descent, thereby the psychological level of 1.1000 could play a periodic foothold, slowing down the quote and, as a fact, forming a pullback. Considering everything that happens in general terms, we see that there was an attempt to restore the original movement and it still remains. The corrective move, which was formed amid support from record lows, may already have come to an end and there is a chance of quotes returning back.

It is likely to assume that a temporary slowdown is possible ahead of the ECB meeting, as I wrote above, but if the price is clearly fixed below the psychological mark of 1.1000, the downward move may resume.

Concretizing all of the above into trading signals:

• Long positions are not yet considered due to the large number of short positions.

• We consider short positions in case of a clear consolidation of the price lower than 1.1000, with the prospect of a move towards 1.0950.

From the point of view of a comprehensive indicator analysis, we see that at all the main time intervals, indicators imply a further decline, which confirms the general interest of the market.

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Indicator analysis. Daily review on September 12, 2019 for the GBP / USD currency pair

Trend analysis (Fig. 1).

On Thursday, the price can start moving downwards with the target of a pullback level of 23.6% - 1.2285 (blue dotted line) and in the case of a breaking further down to a pullback level of 38.2% - 1.223 (blue dotted line).

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Fig. 1 (daily chart).

Comprehensive analysis:

- indicator analysis - down;

- Fibonacci levels - down;

- volumes - down;

- candlestick analysis - down;

- trend analysis - down;

- Bollinger Lines - up;

- weekly schedule - down.

General conclusion:

On Thursday, the price may begin to move down.

An unlikely scenario is an upward movement, with the first target of 1.2385 - an upper fractal.

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Technical analysis of ETH/USD for 12/09/2019

Crypto Industry News:

Mastercard began working with Blockchain R3 to develop a cross-border payment solution.

According to a press release published by Mastercard, both companies plan to pilot a new cross-border payment solution using Blockchain technology. The system will focus on connecting global infrastructure for faster payments, systems and banks.

The announcement is part of Mastercard's plans to strengthen the cross-border payment network, building on the acquisition of the global payment company Transfast, which took place earlier this year. The partnership with R3 is part of the payment giant's strategy, where customers choose the method of transferring funds.

"Developing a new and better solution in the field of B2B cross-border payments by improving global connectivity in the area of the account - the account is key to the ambition of Mastercard. Our goal is to provide global payment and communications infrastructure, as evidenced by our recent strategic acquisitions and partnerships, including our relations with R3, "said Executive Vice President of the new Mastercard payment platforms, Peter Klein.

The partnership builds on previous relationships between the two companies, which also came out publicly earlier this month when Mastercard joined the Corded R3 Marco Polo Network to finance trade.

Technical Market Overview:

The ETH/USD market as the price is still locked inside a narrow horizontal trading zone located between the levels of $172.82 - $183.43. Recently, the price has started to move slightly down again, towards the lower range boundary located at $172.82. In order to regain control of the market, the bulls will have to make a new swing high again and head towards the level of $193.52 in an impulsive fashion, otherwise, the bears might push the prices lower towards the support at $172 and $164.81 again. The larger time frame trend is still bearish and despite the potential termination of the wave 2 of the higher degree, the market participants still did not make the price to rally significantly.

Weekly Pivot Points:

WR3 - $207.64

WR2 - $195.13

WR1 - $188.15

Weekly Pivot - $176.09

WS1 - $169.04

WS2 - $156.97

WS3 - $149.69

Trading Recommendations:

The best strategy in the current market conditions is to trade with the larger timeframe trend, which is still up. All the shorter timeframe moves are being treated as a correction inside of the uptrend. The current cycle is wave 2 of the lower wave degree and it might have been completed, so the uptrend should resume soon. The global investors are waiting for a breakout above the level of $202.59 and $238.68 to confirm the resumption of the uptrend.

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Indicator analysis. Daily review on September 12, 2019 for the EUR / USD currency pair

Trend analysis (Fig. 1).

On Thursday, the continuation of the downward movement with the target of 1.0988 is possible - the pullback level of 61.8% (blue dashed line).

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Fig. 1 (daily chart).

Comprehensive analysis:

- indicator analysis - down;

- Fibonacci levels - down;

- volumes - down;

- candlestick analysis - neutral;

- trend analysis - down;

- Bollinger Lines - down;

- weekly schedule - down.

General conclusion:

On Thursday, the downward movement will continue.

Up until 11.45 Universal time, the continuation of the downward movement with the first target of 1.0988, which is a pullback level of 61.8% (blue dotted line) is possible, then much will depend on the news.

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Technical analysis of BTC/USD for 12/09/2019

Crypto Industry News:

Jay Clayton, chairman of the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), gave information in a television interview about the regulator's latest approach to Bitcoin ETFs.

In an interview, the President of the SEC stated that while significant steps were taken to address regulatory problems in relation to the investment fund, "work remains to be done".

"Given that they are traded on largely unregulated exchanges [...] how can we be sure that these prices are not subject to significant manipulation? Now we are making progress, but people had to answer these difficult questions to be sure that this is the right kind of product, "he said.

Clayton mentioned earlier that the commission was working to make Bitcoin ETF an option for US investors, but highlighted the need for security on regulated markets, saying:

"We do it, but there are a few things we need to feel comfortable with. The first is trust: trust has long been a requirement in our markets, and if you say you have something, you really do have it," he said finally.

Technical Market Overview:

Despite the fact, that the typical target level for correction was hit (61% Fibonacci at $9,882), the BTC/USD pair is still trading below the short-term trendline resistance and the bounce from $9,882 was rather shallow. It might suggest, that the corrective cycle has not been completed yet and there is more downside to come. The next technical support is seen at the level of $9,704 - $9,645, but in a case of a breakout higher, the nearest target for bulls is seen at the level of $10,331 and $10,481.

Weekly Pivot Points:

WR3 - $12,244

WR2 - $11,525

WR1 - $10,919

Weekly Pivot - $10,260

WS1 - $9,607

WS2 - $8,906

WS3 - $8,306

Trading Recommendations:

The best strategy in the current market conditions is to trade with the larger timeframe trend, which is still up. All the shorter timeframe moves are being treated as a correction inside of the uptrend. The wave 2 corrective cycles is about to be completed and the market might be ready for another impulsive wave up of a higher degree. Any violation of the level of $9,231 invalidates the bullish impulsive scenario.

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Technical analysis of GBP/USD for 12/09/2019

Technical Market Overview:

The buyers on the GBP/USD pair still did not throw a towel and they keep the prices close to the recent high at the level of 1.2381, but the momentum is still decreasing and it is about to hit the neutral level. If the bulls want to confirm their control over the market, they should move towards the next target which is seen at the level of 1.2430 (weekly technical resistance from January 2018). On the other hand, the next targets for bears, if they will continue the pull-back is seen at the level of 1.2224 or even at the level of 1.2175. The larget timeframe trend remains down and this move up is being considered as a corrective rally in a downtrend.

Weekly Pivot Points:

WR3 - 1.2838

WR2 - 1.2600

WR1 - 1.2467

Weekly Pivot - 1.2210

WS1 - 1.2063

WS2 - 1.1816

WS3 - 1.1679

Trading Recommendations:

The best strategy for current market conditions is to trade with the larger timeframe trend, which is down. All upward moves will be treated as local corrections in the downtrend. In order to reverse the trend from down to up, the key level for bulls is seen at 1.2429 and it must be clearly violated. As long as the price is trading below this level, the downtrend continues towards the level of 1.2000 and below.

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Technical analysis of EUR/USD for 12/09/2019

Technical Market Overview:

The EUR/USD pair broke out of the narrow horizontal range after the second try to rally and is testing the lower levels. In order to regain control over the price, the bulls have to break through this level and go higher towards the next target located at the level of 1.1091 and then at 1.1167, but currently, the bullish momentum is decreasing as the RSI indicator moves below the level of 50 in neutral market conditions. The larger timeframe trend remains down, but the Ending Diagonal price pattern on Weekly and Daily timeframe charts is still valid.

Weekly Pivot Points:

WR3 - 1.1261

WR2 - 1.1174

WR1 - 1.1105

Weekly Pivot - 1.1012

WS1 - 1.0944

WS2 - 1.0856

WS3 - 1.0789

Trading Recommendations:

The best strategy for current market conditions is to trade with the larger timeframe trend, which is down. All upward moves will be treated as local corrections in the downtrend. The downtrend is valid as long as it is terminated or the level of 1.1445 clearly violated. There is an Ending Diagonal price pattern visible on the larget timeframes that indicate a possible downtrend termination soon. The key short-term levels are technical support at the level of 1.0814 and the technical resistance at the level of 1.1267.

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GBP/USD: plan for the European session on September 12. The pound remains in the side channel, and only US inflation data

To open long positions on GBP/USD you need:

The British pound yesterday again renewed support at 1.2315, but this did not lead to serious technical changes, as the bulls managed to keep this range. At the moment, the buyers' task is to break through the same resistance at 1.2381, which limited the upside potential yesterday, as this will only allow the bull market to resume, the target of which will be the highs of 1.2427 and 1.2460, where I recommend taking profits. If the bears continue to put pressure on the pound, it is best to open new long positions after the formation of a false breakdown level of 1.2310, which has already been tested several times. However, it is best to open long positions for a rebound in the region of a low of 1.2238.

To open short positions on GBP/USD you need:

Significant changes in the market are unlikely to occur in the morning. Sellers will wait for the publication of a report on inflation in the United States and based on it they will try to build a breakdown of support 1.2310, which will lead to a larger sale of GBP/USD already in the area of lows 1.2238 and 1.2112, where I recommend taking profits. If the bulls try to return to the market again, for example, after the report of the European Central Bank, then sellers will have to actively defend a high of 1.2381, and the formation of a false breakdown there will be an additional signal to open short positions. With larger growth, the pair can also test the 1.2238 area, from where I recommend selling immediately for a rebound.

Signals of indicators:

Moving averages

Trade is conducted in the region of 30 and 50 moving average, which indicates some market uncertainty in the short term.

Bollinger bands

Volatility is very low, which does not provide signals on entering the market.

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Description of indicators

  • MA (moving average) 50 days - yellow
  • MA (moving average) 30 days - green
  • MACD: Fast EMA 12, Slow EMA 26, SMA 9
  • Bollinger Bands 20
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EUR/USD: plan for the European session on September 12. ECB decision will cause the euro to fall, but it will be limited

To open long positions on EURUSD you need:

Today is a very important day, as the European Central Bank can lower interest rates to a negative level, which will weigh on the euro. Yesterday, buyers were able to cling to the support level of 1.0989, which I repeatedly paid attention to in my reviews, however, a more important task now is to break through and consolidate above the resistance of 1.1020. Good data on Germany can help in this, which will lead to a larger growth of EUR/USD in the resistance area of 1.1053, where I recommend taking profits and waiting for the ECB's decision on interest rates. If the bears continue to pull down the pair, which is more likely, then returning to purchases from the level of 1.0989 is now best after a false breakdown, or open long positions immediately to rebound from a low of 1.0955.

To open short positions on EURUSD you need:

Bears will try to take advantage of the weak inflation report in Germany and continue to pull down the euro. The formation of a false breakdown in the region of 1.1020 will be an additional signal to open short positions, and the first goal will be yesterday's support at 1.0989, which limited all downward potential. Its breakdown will lead to a larger sale in the region of the lows of 1.0955 and 1.0927, but this is only with the scenario that the European Central Bank decides to lower interest rates. If in the first half of the day there will be a demand for the euro, and the bears do not emerge in the area of 1.1020, it is best to consider new short positions for a rebound from a high of 1.1053.

Signals of indicators:

Moving averages

Trade is conducted in the region of 30 and 50 moving average, which indicates market uncertainty in front of important data.

Bollinger bands

In case the euro declines in the morning, the lower boundary of the indicator in the region of 1.0995 may act as support.

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Description of indicators

  • MA (moving average) 50 days - yellow
  • MA (moving average) 30 days - green
  • MACD: Fast EMA 12, Slow EMA 26, SMA 9
  • Bollinger Bands 20
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Technical analysis: Important Intraday Levels For EUR/USD, September 12, 2019

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When the European market opens, some economic data will be released such as Monetary Policy Statement, Main Refinancing Rate, Industrial Production m/m, Italian Quarterly Unemployment Rate, French Final CPI m/m, and German Final CPI m/m. The US will also publish the economic data such as Federal Budget Balance, 30-y Bond Auction, Natural Gas Storage, Unemployment Claims, Core CPI m/m, and CPI m/m, so amid the reports, the EUR/USD pair will move with low to medium volatility during this day. TODAY'S TECHNICAL LEVELS: Breakout BUY Level: 1.1067. Strong Resistance: 1.1061. Original Resistance: 1.1050. Inner Sell Area: 1.1039. Target Inner Area: 1.1014. Inner Buy Area: 1.0989. Original Support: 1.0978. Strong Support: 1.0967. Breakout SELL Level: 1.0961. (Disclaimer)The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Technical analysis: Important Intraday Levels for USD/JPY, September 12, 2019

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In Asia, Japan will release the Tertiary Industry Activity m/m, PPI y/y, and Core Machinery Orders m/m and the US will publish some economic data such as Federal Budget Balance, 30-y Bond Auction, Natural Gas Storage, Unemployment Claims, Core CPI m/m, and CPI m/m. So there is a probability the USD/JPY pair will move with low to medium volatility during this day. TODAY'S TECHNICAL LEVELS: Resistance.3: 108.63. Resistance. 2: 108.42. Resistance. 1: 108.21. Support. 1: 107.94. Support. 2: 107.73. Support. 3: 107.52. (Disclaimer)The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Forecast for GBP/USD on September 12, 2019

GBP/USD

The British pound fell by 20 points yesterday under pressure from the general strengthening of the dollar. On the daily chart, the signal line of the Marlin oscillator is more clearly turning down. The option with the subsequent increase in decline to the MACD line, in the region of 1.2180, is gradually gaining weight.

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On the four-hour chart, after a nondescript divergence on the Marlin oscillator, the signal line entered the negative trend zone, which became a stronger sign of a downward trend in the near future. Also, with an increase in the MACD line, the control level also increased, overcoming which will trigger the pound to fall - 1.2296.

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The option with an increase to the Fibonacci level of 161.8% at the price of 1.2543 is not excluded yet. It can turn on after the price goes above the signal level of 1.2381.

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Control zones for EUR / USD pair on 09/12/19

The upward movement remains a priority since the test 1/2 WCZ of 1.1005-1.0997 led to the emergence of demand, and the closing of the American session took place above the zone. The first goal of growth will be the weekly control zone of 1.1086-1.1102. The test of which will fix part of the profit while the rest of the position need to be transferred to breakeven.

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Working in the upward direction allows you to get a favorable risk to profit ratio. It is important to note that on Monday there will be a transition to a new futures contract, which may affect the volatility of the coming days.

An alternative fall model will become relevant if the closure of today's US session occurs below the level of 1.0997. This will allow rebuilding its trade towards the weakening of the European currency. The main purpose of the fall will be the lower range of the average stroke.

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Daily CZ - daily control zone. The area formed by important data from the futures market, which changes several times a year.

Weekly CZ - weekly control zone. The area formed by marks from the important futures market, which changes several times a year.

Monthly CZ - monthly control zone. The area is a reflection of the average volatility over the past year.

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Forecast for USD / JPY pair on September 12, 2019

USD / JPY pair

After the USD/JPY pair has exceeded the green line of the price channel and the indicator line of balance on the daily chart, the price has steadily and systematically continued to grow towards the upper targets. The first of which is the price channel line at the price of 108.40. Taking into account the pace of growth, every day the price adds 30 points. The first goal can be broken and the correction is more likely from the second goal of 109.22 from the next line of the price channel. It can also be from the resistance of the green ascending price channel at 109.56 considering that the growth since August 28 began from the support of the green channel itself.

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On a four-hour chart, with a sharp rise in price, the Marlin oscillator is in no hurry to infiltrate the overbought zone and lose strength there, which also gives a reserve for the further growth of the pair.

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Control zones AUDUSD 09/12/19

Work in the upward impulse involves the search for favorable prices for the purchase of an instrument. Any decline should be considered for the appearance of a pattern of continued growth. The nearest support is Weekly Control Zone 1/4 0.6853-0.6849. During the third day, the pair tests this zone, which leads to the emergence of demand.

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Continued growth is more likely while the pair is trading above the WCZ 1/2 0.6819-0.6812. Holding on to open purchases is also a good option.

The formation of an alternative model will require the emergence of a strong supply, which will allow the pair to gain a foothold below the WCZ 1/4. If this happens, then corrective sales will come to the fore. In turn, the goal of the reduction will be WCZ 1/2, where the fate of the upward impulse will be determined.

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Daily CZ - daily control zone. An area formed by important data from the futures market that changes several times a year.

Weekly CZ - weekly control zone. The zone formed by the important marks of the futures market, which change several times a year.

Monthly CZ - monthly control zone. An area that reflects the average volatility over the past year.

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#USDX vs EUR / USD vs GBP / USD vs USD / JPY. Comprehensive analysis of movement options from September 12, 2019 APLs &

We will consider, in a comprehensive manner, how the development of the movement of currency instruments #USDX, EUR / USD, GBP / USD and USD / JPY will begin to flow from September 12, 2019.

Minuette operational scale (H4 time frame)

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US dollar index

The dollar index #USDX in 1/2 Median Line channel (98.90 - 98.60 - 98.40) of the Minuette operational scale fork, respectively, further development of the movement of this instrument from September 12, 2019 will be determined by working out and the direction of breakdown of the above levels. We look at the animated chart for details.

The breakdown of the upper boundary of the 1/2 Median Line channel (resistance level of 98.80) of the Minuette operational scale fork will confirm the further development of the dollar index movement in the equilibrium zone (98.57 - 99.05 - 99.30) of the Minuette operational scale fork with the prospect of updating maximum 99.37 and reaching the UTL Minuette control line (99.50).

If the lower boundary of the 1/2 Median Line Minuette channel (breakdown level of 98.40) is broken, the downward movement of #USDX can be continued to the initial SSL line (98.00) of the Minuette operational scale fork and the boundaries of the equilibrium zone (97.86 (local minimum) - 97.45 - 97.10) Minuette operational scale fork.

The details of the #USDX movement are presented in the animated chart.

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Euro vs US dollar

The single European currency continues to remain in the 1/2 Median Line channel (1.1045 - 1.1015 - 1.0985) of the Minuette operational scale fork. Therefore, from September 12, 2019, the further development trend of the EUR / USD movement will be determined by the direction of the breakdown of this channel. The details are shown in the animated graphics.

With a joint breakdown of the support levels of 1.0985 and 1.0975 (the lower boundary of the 1/2 Median Line channel of the Minuette operational scale fork), the development of the single European currency can continue in the 1/2 Median Line Minuette channel (1.0975 - 1.0955 - 1.0935), and when updating the minimum 1.0926, it will be relevant to achieve at the price of this instrument the boundaries of the equilibrium zone (1.0910 - 1.0880 - 1.0855) of the Minuette operational scale fork.

In turn, if the upper boundary of the 1/2 Median Line Minuette channel is broken (resistance level of 1.1045), then there may be a development of the upward movement of EUR / USD to the local maximum of 1.1085 and the boundaries of the equilibrium zone (1.1120 - 1.1175 - 1.1220) of the Minuette operating scale fork.

The details of the EUR / USD movement options are shown in the animated chart.

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Great Britain pound vs US dollar

The development of Her Majesty's currency movement GBP / USD and from September 12, 2019, will be determined by the direction of the breakdown of the range :

  • resistance level of 1.2350 (the upper boundary of ISL61.8 is the equilibrium zone of the Minuette operational scale fork);
  • support level of 1.2325 (final Schiff Line Minuette).

The breakdown of the final Schiff Line Minuette (support level of 1.2325) will make it possible to develop the downward movement of Her Majesty's currency to the goals - the Median Line Minuette (1.2270) - the equilibrium zone (1.2255 - 1.2215 - 1.2165) of the Minuette operational scale fork with the prospect of reaching the a Median Line Minuette channel (1.2140 - 1.2100 - 1.2060).

The breakdown of the upper boundary ISL61.8 (resistance level of 1.2350) of the equilibrium zone of the Minuette operational scale fork will direct the development of movement to the local maximum 1.2384, and when it is updated, the upward movement can continue to the final line FSL (1.2410) of the Minuette operational scale fork with the prospect of reaching the final line FSL Minuette (1.2610).

The details of the GBP / USD movement can be seen in the animated chart.

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US dollar vs Japanese yen

Starting September 12, 2019, the movement of the USD / JPY currency of the "land of the rising sun" will be determined by the development and the direction of the breakdown of the boundaries of the equilibrium zone (108.35 - 107.85 - 107.45) of the Minuette operational scale fork. The development options for this zone are shown in the animation chart.

The breakdown of the upper boundary of ISL61.8 (resistance level of 108.35) of the equilibrium zone of the Minuette operational scale fork will direct the development of the currency of the country of the rising sun to maximum 109.33 .

In case of breakdown of the lower boundary of ISL38.2 (support level of 107.45) of the equilibrium zone of the Minuette operational scale fork, the development of the USD / JPY movement will continue in the equilibrium zone (107.55 - 106.95 - 106.40) of the Minuette operational scale fork with the possibility of reaching the channel boundaries 1/2 Median Line Minuette (106.20 - 105.70 - 105.25).

We look at the details of the USD / JPY movement in the animated chart.

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The review is made without taking into account the news background. The opening of trading sessions of the main financial centers does not serve as a guide to action (placing orders "sell" or "buy").

The formula for calculating the dollar index :

USDX = 50.14348112 * USDEUR0.576 * USDJPY0.136 * USDGBP0.119 * USDCAD0.091 * USDSEK0.042 * USDCHF0.036.

where the power coefficients correspond to the weights of the currencies in the basket:

Euro - 57.6% ;

Yen - 13.6% ;

Pound Sterling - 11.9% ;

Canadian dollar - 9.1%;

Swedish Krona - 4.2%;

Swiss franc - 3.6%.

The first coefficient in the formula leads the index to 100 at the start date of the countdown - March 1973, when the main currencies began to be freely quoted relative to each other.

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Fractal analysis of the main currency pairs for September 12

Forecast for September 12:

Analytical review of currency pairs on the scale of H1:

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For the euro / dollar pair, the key levels on the H1 scale are: 1.1155, 1.1122, 1.1097, 1.1047, 1.1008, 1.0987, 1.0960 and 1.0926. Here, we continue to monitor the development of the ascending structure of September 3. At the moment, the price is in the correction zone. The continuation of the movement to the top is expected after the breakdown of the level of 1.1047. In this case, the target is 1.1097. Short-term upward movement, as well as consolidation is in the range of 1.1097 - 1.1122. We consider the level of 1.1155 to be a potential value for the upward trend. Upon reaching which, we expect consolidation, as well as a pullback to the bottom.

Short-term downward movement is expected in the range of 1.1008 - 1.0987. The breakdown of the last value will lead to an in-depth correction. Here, the target is 1.0960. This level is a key support for the upward structure. Its passage at the price will lead to the formation of a local downward structure. In this case, the first goal is 1.0926.

The main trend is the ascending structure of September 3, the correction stage.

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 1.1050 Take profit: 1.1095

Buy 1.1098 Take profit: 1.1120

Sell: 1.1008 Take profit: 1.0988

Sell: 1.0985 Take profit: 1.0960

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For the pound / dollar pair, the key levels on the H1 scale are: 1.2460, 1.2408, 1.2351, 1.2300, 1.2266, 1.2218 and 1.2190. Here, we follow the development of the upward cycle of September 3. The continuation of the movement to the top is expected after the breakdown of the level of 1.2351. In this case, the target is 1.2408. The breakdown of which, in turn, will allow us to expect movement to the level of 1.2460, and upon reaching this level, we expect consolidation in the range of 1.2408 - 1.2460. For the potential value for the top, we consider the level of 1.2514. Upon reaching which, we expect a pullback to the bottom.

Consolidated movement is expected in the range of 1.2300 - 1.2266. The breakdown of the latter value will lead to an in-depth correction. Here, the target is 1.2218. The range of 1.2218 - 1.2190 is the key support for the upward cycle.

The main trend is the upward cycle of September 3.

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 1.2351 Take profit: 1.2406

Buy: 1.2409 Take profit: 1.2460

Sell: 1.2300 Take profit: 1.2268

Sell: 1.2264 Take profit: 1.2218

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For the dollar / franc pair, the key levels on the H1 scale are: 1.0024, 0.9991, 0.9974, 0.9947, 0.9914, 0.9894 and 0.9872. Here, we follow the development of the ascending structure of September 4. The continuation of the movement to the top is expected after the breakdown of the level 0.9947. In this case, the target is 0.9974. Price consolidation is in the range of 0.9974 - 0.9991. For the potential value for the top, we consider the level of 1.0024. Upon reaching this value, we expect a pullback to the bottom.

Short-term downward movement is expected in the range of 0.9914 - 0.9894. The breakdown of the latter value will lead to an in-depth correction. Here, the target is 0.9872.

The main trend is the ascending structure of September 4.

Trading recommendations:

Buy : 0.9948 Take profit: 0.9972

Buy : 0.9991 Take profit: 1.0024

Sell: 0.9914 Take profit: 0.9895

Sell: 0.9892 Take profit: 0.9872

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For the dollar / yen pair, the key levels on the scale are : 108.76, 108.33, 108.12, 107.70, 107.49 and 107.12. Here, we are following the development of the ascending structure of September 3. Short-term upward movement is expected in the range of 108.12 - 108.33. The breakdown of the last value will lead to movement to a potential target - 108.76, when this level is reached, we expect a pullback to the bottom.

Short-term downward movement is possibly in the range of 107.70 - 107.49. The breakdown of the last value will lead to an in-depth correction. Here, the goal is 107.12. This level is a key support for the top.

The main trend is the local upward structure from September 3.

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 108.12 Take profit: 108.30

Buy : 108.35 Take profit: 108.76

Sell: 107.70 Take profit: 107.50

Sell: 107.46 Take profit: 107.12

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For the Canadian dollar / US dollar pair, the key levels on the H1 scale are: 1.3259, 1.3230, 1.3208, 1.3181, 1.3117, 1.3094 and 1.3052. Here, we are following the development of the downward structure of September 3. At the moment, the price is in correction. The continuation of movement to the bottom is expected after the price passes the noise range 1.3117 - 1.3094. In this case, the potential target is 1.3052, when this level is reached, we expect a pullback to the top.

Consolidated movement is expected in the range of 1.3181 - 1.3208. The breakdown of the latter value will allow us to expect movement to the level of 1.3230. For the potential value for correction, we consider the level of 1.3259, to which we expect the expressed initial conditions for the top.

The main trend is the descending structure of September 3, the correction stage.

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 1.3208 Take profit: 1.3230

Buy : 1.3231 Take profit: 1.3257

Sell: 1.3117 Take profit: 1.3095

Sell: 1.3092 Take profit: 1.3052

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For the Australian dollar / US dollar pair, the key levels on the H1 scale are : 0.6967, 0.6918, 0.6884, 0.6867, 0.6841, 0.6822 and 0.6793. Here, we follow the development of the ascending structure of September 3. Short-term upward movement is expected in the range of 0.6867 - 0.6884. The breakdown of the latter value will lead to a movement to the level of 0.6918. Price consolidation is near this value. For the potential value for the top, we consider the level of 0.6967. Upon reaching this level, we expect a pullback to the bottom.

Short-term downward movement is possibly in the range 0.6841 - 0.6822. The breakdown of the last value will lead to a long correction. Here, the potential target is 0.6793. This level is a key support for the top.

The main trend is the upward structure of September 3.

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 0.6886 Take profit: 0.6918

Buy: 0.6920 Take profit: 0.6965

Sell : 0.6840 Take profit : 0.6822

Sell: 0.6820 Take profit: 0.6795

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For the euro / yen pair, the key levels on the H1 scale are: 120.36, 119.60, 119.05, 118.78, 118.34, 118.02 and 117.53. Here, we continue to monitor the development of the ascending structure of September 3. Short-term upward movement is expected in the range of 118.78 - 119.05. The breakdown of the latter value will lead to a movement to the level - 119.60. Upon reaching this level, we expect consolidation. For the potential value for the top, we consider the level of 120.36. Upon reaching this value, we expect a pullback to the bottom.

Short-term downward movement is expected in the range of 118.34 - 118.02. The breakdown of the last value will lead to an in-depth correction. Here, the goal is 117.53. This level is a key support for the upward structure.

The main trend is the upward cycle of September 3.

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 119.07 Take profit: 119.60

Buy: 119.63 Take profit: 120.30

Sell: 118.34 Take profit: 118.04

Sell: 118.00 Take profit: 117.55

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For the pound / yen pair, the key levels on the H1 scale are : 136.13, 134.74, 134.10, 132.94, 131.91, 131.36, 130.57 and 129.70. Here, we continue to monitor the development of the upward cycle of September 3. The continuation of the movement to the top is expected after the breakdown of the level of 132.96. In this case, the target is 134.10. Short-term upward movement, as well as consolidation is in the range of 134.10 - 134.74. For the potential value for the top, we consider the level 136.13. Upon reaching which, we expect a pullback to the bottom.

Short-term downward movement is possibly in the range 131.91 - 131.36. The breakdown of the last value will lead to an in-depth correction. Here, the target is 130.57. This level is a key support for the upward structure. Its passage in price will lead to the formation of a downward structure. Here, the potential target is 129.70.

The main trend is the upward structure of September 3.

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 132.96 Take profit: 134.10

Buy: 134.10 Take profit: 134.72

Sell: 131.90 Take profit: 131.36

Sell: 131.34 Take profit: 130.58

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Gold: a great opportunity to buy at the level of $1480-50

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According to Bart Melek, the head of TD Securities, the strengthening of the dollar, the growth of the value of US stocks and bond yields reflected on the prospects for gold and long positions in the asset. "The yellow metal fell to just below $1,500 an ounce at the beginning of the week, and we think that the price could move to the support level between $1,480–50 if the Fed doesn't weaken the policy at the next meeting," Meleka said. At this stage, the gold market believes that the US central bank will keep rates at the current level without any unconditional commitments to aggressively lower rates in the future. "In our opinion, no matter what central banks do over the next few months, the global economy will decline due to weaker trading activity amid a trade war between the US and China."

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The largest world markets are under attack. Germany is showing weakness, China continues to disappoint with its performance, and there are signs that the US economy is also slowing. Given these facts and that monetary policy is not very productive, the projected decline in the price of gold should be considered as an excellent buying opportunity, since central banks need to be aggressive in their actions in order to avoid a sharp drop in global activity next year.

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What exactly and on what scale will the ECB do?

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Carsten Brzeski, chief economist at ING, believes the ECB seems to have agreed on what to do, but the recent comments of several hawks indicate that the heated debate is still ongoing. Traditional hawks, such as Jens Weidmann from Germany, Klaas Knot from the Netherlands and Sabina Lautenschlager on the ECB Executive Council, opposed the restart of QE. "In our opinion, even if the group of skeptic hawks has grown, it still looks like a minority. Since inflationary expectations are likely to be far from the ECB's goals, which means that the vast majority will support new incentives. And, even despite the opposition, it is doubtful that this is only a reduction in the rate. In this regard, and for a better understanding of what the ECB is currently thinking of doing, we should pay attention to the speech of the ECB chief economist Philip Lane."

According to data provided by Lane, the ECB's unconventional measures since 2014 have boosted economic growth and inflation by about 0.5 percentage points. It is worth noting that almost half of the impact gave QE. However, when the ECB launched QE in 2015, inflation was expected to accelerate from 0.5% in 2014 to 1.3% in 2016. Currently, there is a risk of a serious pullback up to deflation due to actual economic stagnation and low inflation, the likelihood of this is as high as in 2014/5. "Thus, we expect the ECB to launch a "final firework": a 20 bp cut in deposit rates, a revaluation of TLTRO and a restart of QE with a budget of about 30 billion euros per month. At the same time, there is a risk that the opposition, the "hawks", will convince them to slightly delay the launch of QE," Brzeski said.

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Gold traded in euro: hope for growth

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The yellow metal, traded in euros, fell 4% from it recently marked a record high. After gold has reached the consolidation phase, analysts recommend purchasing precious metals for the European currency.

According to analysts, the upward trend in the yellow metal market continues to this day. Amid the growing trend, the price correction is a great chance to increase investment, analysts are certain. The fate of the key support level of gold at $1,500 per ounce will largely depend on the decision of the ECB. On Thursday, September 12, the regulator will announce its new policy. Its decision will be the most important indicator of the precious metal's further dynamics.

For the first time since August 22, 2019, world gold prices fell below $1,500 per ounce. On Tuesday, September 10, precious metals were only $1493 per ounce, which corresponds to €1353. Recall that in early September, the price of gold was at €1,409.99, which was a new record high.

According to analysts at Citi, in the next year or two, the cost of the yellow metal will increase and reach a new high. This record will be the mark of $2000 per ounce. Interest in precious metals is growing due to the monetary policy of leading regulators (the Fed and the ECB plan to lower interest rates and, if possible, resume monetary stimulus programs), as well as due to the purchase of gold by central banks of developing countries.

In the short term, further pricing of precious metals will be significantly affected by the next ECB meeting scheduled for this Thursday. Market participants expect the European Central Bank to reduce the rate on deposits and unveil further incentive measures. If the European regulator continues to pursue a soft monetary policy, then the single euro will depreciate against the US dollar. In such a situation, the cost of yellow metal traded in euros will increase, analysts summarize.

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Pound: first - growth, then - recession

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The British pound may soon experience the effect of dizzying fluctuations, currency experts at Citi are certain. In the next two to three months, the GBP/USD pair will drop to the level of 1.1700, and then will soar to 1.2500, analysts say.

The sharp ups and downs of the pound are largely due to the unstable economic and political situation in the UK. This primarily concerns the high likelihood of a "hard" Brexit, as well as other political risks, such as the formation of a Labour government after the general election. At the same time, macroeconomic statistics in the UK remains weak. Citi believes that only fiscal stimulus can support the pound and mitigate the economic blow in the event of a hard Brexit.

The British currency at the moment was between Scylla and Charybdis. There are two political scenarios, the implementation of which does not portend anything good to Great Britain. In the first case, if the Conservative Party, whose leader is Prime Minister Boris Johnson, wins the election, Britain's exit from the EU may occur without an agreement. Johnson's position on this issue has been known for a long time: he is a supporter of withdrawal from the European Union in any situation - with or without an agreement. In the case of the second scenario, there is a lower likelihood of a hard Brexit if the Labour Party wins the election, but the socialist agenda will be in the foreground, Citi said.

In the short term, the position of the British pound looks optimistic, analysts emphasize. They forecast active growth. This is confirmed by current quotes of the British currency: on Wednesday, September 11, the pound started at around 1.2353, and then traded in the range of 1.2361–1.2366.

However, the rise predicted by Citi experts will not last long. In the long term, the British currency is expected to decline. Citi currency strategists predict a pound decline to 1.1700 over the next three months. In the next 6-12 months, analysts expect the restoration of the British currency to the level of 1.2500.

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