EUR/NZD analysis for December 06, 2016

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Recently, EUR/NZD has been moving sideways at the price of 1.5060. I found a trading range between the price of 1.5008 (support) and the price of 1.5155 (resistance). Using the market profile on the 30M time frame, I found today's point of control at the price of 1.5060. Watch for a breakout of the trading range to confirm further direction. The downward target is set at the price of 1.4945 and the upward target is set at the price of 1.5225.

Fibonacci Pivot Points:

Resistance levels

R1: 1.5130

R2: 1.5220

R3: 1.5360

Support levels:

S1: 1.4850

S2: 1.4760

S3: 1.4620

Trading recommendations for today: Watch for a breakout of the trading range to confirm further direction.

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Gold analysis for December 06, 2016

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Since our previous analysis, gold has been moving upward. The price tested the level of $1,175.75 in a high volume. Using the market profile on 30M time frame, I found today's point of control at the price of $1,171.90. The price is trading above 21SMA, which is a sign of strength. Be careful when selling and watch for potential buying opportunities. I also found a symmetrical triangle. Watch for an upward breakout to confirm momentum. I placed Fibonacci expansion to find potential upward targets. I got Fibonacci expansion 61.8% at the price of $1,179.90 and Fibonacci expansion 100% at the price of $1,186.70.

Fibonacci pivot points:

Resistance levels:

R1: 1,188.15

R2: 1,202.30

R3: 1,217.80

Support levels:

S1: 1,158.40

S2: 1,142.80

S3: 1,128.50

Trading recommendations for today: Watch for a breakout of the symmetrial triangle to confirm momentum.

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Daily analysis of Gold for December 06, 2016

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Overview

Gold was trading with a downward bias yesterday. However, the price rebounded from 1,155.00 to settle next to 1,172.68 again as stochastic provides positive signals in the four-hour time frame, while the EMA50 is forming negative pressure in the intraday trading. Therefore, this contradiction between the technical indicators makes us continue our neutral outlook until the price confirms breaching one of the next trend keys represented by 1172.68 support and 1187.00 resistance. This reminds you that breaking this support will extend losses to reach 1,124.88 as the next main station. On the other hand, breaching 1,187.00 will open the way for the price recovery on the intraday and short-term basis with upward targets at 1,211.31 and higher at 1,249.94. The expected trading range for today is between 1150.00 support and 1195.00 resistance.

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Global macro overview for 06/12/2016

Global macro overview for 06/12/2016:

The Reserve Bank of Australia decided to keep the interest rate at a historical low of 1.50%. In the statement, RBA declared that the overvalued AUD could complicate economic recovery. Moreover, RBA judged steady policy consistent with growth and inflation targets, as the global economy is growing at a lower than average pace and the Chinese economy has stabilized as well. The global outlook for inflation is more balanced than "for some time" and commodity prices have risen, supporting Australia's foreign trade. At the end, the RBA added, that they expect a slowdown in an annual growth rate in the year end before a pickup. In conclusion, RBA made rather dovish statements regarding both growth and inflation, so the time is not ripe yet for another interest rate hike.

Let's now take a look at the AUD/USD technical picture in the daily time frame. After the golden trend line break, the bears are in control over the market. The technical resistance at the level of 0.7504 was tested from below and it looks like the market is going back to the trading range again. The next support is seen at the level of 0.7308.

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Global macro overview for 06/12/2016

Global macro overview for 06/12/2016:

The Institute of Supply Management reported its Non-Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index official figures on Monday. The ISM Manufacturing Index advanced to 57.2 points in November from the previous month's 54.8 points and that was the highest level since October 2015 (analysts anticipated the Index to come in at 55.3 in the reported month). Moreover, it was marked the 82nd straight month of growth in the sector. It is worth to mention, that any reading above the 50 point level indicates expansion in the sector, which accounts for more than two-thirds of the US economy. In conclusion, the majority of respondents expressed a positive view of the economy, which might be another weighty reason for the FED to justify the interest rate hike in December.

Let's now take a look at the US Dollar index technical picture in the daily time frame. The swing high at the level of 100.52 has been violated and new swing high has been established at the level of 102.06. Currently, the market is in the corrective cycle and it looks like the level of 99.13 will be tested soon. Nevertheless, the bulls are still in control over this market and when the corrective cycle is completed new highs are expected.

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Daily analysis of Silver for December 06, 2016

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Overview

Silver price shows a bullish bias in an effort to breach the neckline of the double bottom pattern mentioned yesterday at 16.85. This price action is supported by stochastic positivity that appears clearly in the four-hour time frame. In case the above-mentioned level is breached, this supports our expectations of a further bullish trend in the short term. The next target is located at 17.43. Therefore, we believe that the chances are valid to trade on the rally today. My advice is supported by the EMA50, conditioned by the price stability above 16.56 level. Besides, note that breaching 17.43 will extend the bullish wave to reach 18.30 as the next main target. The expected trading range for today is between 16.56 support and 17.20 resistance.

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Technical analysis of NZD/USD for December 06, 2016

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Overview:

  • The NZD/USD pair faced resistance at the level of 0.7169, while minor resistance is seen at 0.7146. Support is found at the levels of 0.7093 and 0.7069. Besides, it should be noted that a daily pivot point has already set at the level of 0.7127. Equally important, the NZD/USD pair is still moving around the key level at 0.7127, which represents a daily pivot in the H1 time frame at the moment. Yesterday, the NZD/USD pair continued to move upwards from the level of 0.7100. The pair rose from the level of 0.7169 (this level of 0.7169 coincides with the double bottom) to the top around 0.7169. In consequence, the NZD/USD pair broke resistance, which turned into strong support at the level of 0.7093. The level of 0.7093 is expected to act as major support today. From this point, we expect the NZD/USD pair to continue moving in the bullish trend from the support level of 0.7093 towards the target level of 0.7169. If the pair succeeds in passing through the level of 0.7169, the market will indicate the bullish opportunity above the level of 0.7169 in order to reach the second target at 0.7200. On the other hand, if a breakout happens at the second support level of 0.7069, then this scenario may be invalidated
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Technical analysis of USD/CHF for December 06, 2016

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Overview:

  • The USD/CHF pair:
  • The market showed signs of instability when it reached the top of 1.0191. The daily resistance and support are seen at the levels of 1.0191 and 1.0054 respectively. The trend of USD/CHF pair movement was controversial as it took place in a narrow sideways channel, the market showed signs of instability. Amid the previous events, the price is still moving between the levels of 1.0191 and 1.0054. In consequence, it is recommended to be cautious while placing orders in this area. We should wait until the sideways channel has completed. On the H4 chart, the price spot of 1.0191 remains a significant resistance zone. Therefore, there is a possibility that the USD/CHF pair will move to the downside and the fall structure does not look corrective. Resistance is seen at the level of 1.0191 today. So, sell below 1.0191 with the first target at 1.0100. In overall, we still prefer the bearish scenario as long as the price is below the level of 1.0191. Furthermore, if the USD/CHF pair is able to break out the bottom at 1.0100, the market will decline further to 1.0053. However, if a breakout takes place at the resistance level of 1.0230, then this scenario may become invalidated. Remember to place a stop loss; it should be set below the second support of 1.0266.
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Technical analysis of USD/CAD for December 6, 2016

General overview for 06/12/2016:

After the intraday resistance at the level of 1.3356 had been rejected, the market made another marginal lower low at the level of 1.3235. The downside seems to be limited now as the price can not break out of the dased blue channel in an impulsive fashion. Please pay attention that the bullish divergence between the price and momentum oscillator supports the bullish view.

Support/Resistance:

1.3235 - Intraday Support

1.3342 - Weekly Pivot

1.3356 - Intraday Resistance

1.3431 - WR1

1.3464 - Wave b High

Trading recommendations:

Day traders should open buy orders only if the level of 1.3356 is clearly violated. Otherwise, the sideways price action does not justify any trade for now.

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Technical analysis of EUR/JPY for December 6, 2016

General overview for 06/12/2016:

The top for the wave -iii- might be in place at the level of 123.17 and the bottom for the wave -iv- might be in place as well at the level of 121.95. Since then the market has been rallying in order to complete the last wave up. The projected target for wave (v) (green) is at the level 124.00. When the impulsive structure is completed, a larger time frame correction is being expected.

Support/Resistance:

124.00 - WR2

123.17 - Intraday Resistnace

122.71 - WR1

121.85 - Intraday Support

120.62 - Weekly Pivot

119.40 - WS1

118.71 - Technical Support

Trading recommendations:

All day traders with open buy orders should prepare to take profits off the table at the current levels (or wait for the level of 124.00 to be hit) and wait for another trading setup to occur shortly.

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Daily analysis of major pairs for December 6, 2016

EUR/USD: The EUR/USD pair made a faint bearish start this week, and later started trending upwards. Price has moved upwards by over 200 pips, and this has resulted in a new bullish bias in the market. Thus the market is supposed to be going upwards this week, reaching the resistance lines at 1.0800, 1.0850 and 1.0900 this week.

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USD/CHF: A bearish signal has appeared on the USD/CHF pair. Price is likely to continue going further downwards. A more southerly movement may result in price reaching the support levels at 1.0050 and 1.0000. However, it would be difficult for price to break the support level at 1.0000 to the downside.

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GBP/USD: This is a bullish as well as a volatile market. Price began a bullish movement last week and it has gone north by 300 pips since then, and now targeting the distribution territory at 1.2750. That distribution territory is supposed to be breached to the upside soon, as price goes further and further upwards.

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USD/JPY: This pair consolidated yesterday in the context of an uptrend. There is a Bullish Confirmation Pattern in the market and a rise in momentum should end up favoring the extant bullish outlook. The outlook is also bullish for this week. The supply levels at 114.50, 115.00 and 115.50 remain the bullish targets for the week.

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EUR/JPY: The EUR/JPY pair went south in the first few hours of this trading week. Price quickly recovered and went upwards 350 pips from a daily low of 119.50 (Monday). The action has put more emphasis on the recent bullish bias. The resistance line at 123.00 has been tested, and it would be tested again.

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NZD/USD Intraday technical levels and trading recommendations for December 6, 2016

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As long as the NZD/USD pair continued trading above 0.6860, further bullish advance was expected towards the upper limit of the depicted channel around 0.7400.

During August and September, a consolidation range was established from the price level of 0.7250 up to 0.7350.

Later on October 20, the lower limit of the consolidation range (0.7250) stood as a temporary resistance which initiated a bearish movement towards 0.7100 (lower limit of the depicted channel).

Bullish recovery was expressed around the price level of 0.7100 on October 28. Hence, a double-bottom pattern was expressed on the chart.

Bullish fixation above 0.7250 and 0.7350 was needed to allow further bullish advance towards the projected target of the reversal pattern around 0.7450.

However, significant signs of a bearish reversal were expressed around the upper limit of the price range (0.7350).

The bearish breakdown of 0.7250 (lower limit of the depicted range) enhanced the bearish side of the market towards the price level of 0.7100 (recent bottom of October 28) which was broken as well.

Bearish persistence below 0.7100 allows a quick bearish decline towards 0.6960 (BUY zone) where bullish rejection and a valid BUY entry was expected. All T/P levels were successfully achieved.

On the other hand, the recent bullish pullback towards 0.7120 was considered for selling the NZD/USD pair as it constituted the recent resistance level. The shooting-star daily candlestick of November 30 enhances this bearish scenario.

S/L should be set as daily closure above 0.7150 to minimize the associated risk.

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Technical analysis of USDX for December 6, 2016

I have been warning Dollar bulls that a correction was imminent. Yesterday's price action justified this pullback and the market delivered a decline back towards 100. The Dollar index has broken short-term support and confirmed a short-term trend reversal.

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Blue line - support (broken)

Red lines - bearish flag

The Dollar index has broken below the Ichimoku cloud and below trend line support. The last time the Dollar index broke out and above or below the Ichimoku cloud was at 96.50 and price moved 5.5 points higher. We can also see a bearish flag forming on the 4-hour chart with support at 99.92. If broken we should see the index push lower towards 98.

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Green line - trend line support

The weekly candle has turned red and made a lower low confirming trend reversal. With oscillators at overbought levels and with bearish divergence in the stochastic, I cannot be bullish. Weekly support is at 99.35 and next at 97.55. Cloud support and trend line support is at 96.20. As long as price is above that level bulls have hopes for new higher highs.

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Technical analysis of gold for December 6, 2016

Gold price remains above a critical long-term support area at the 61.8% Fibonacci level of the entire rise from $1,045 to $1,375. Buying interest is shown each time Gold price dips below $1,170 for the last couple of weeks and this is clearer seen on the weekly chart.

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Black lines - bearish channel

Gold price remains inside the bearish short-term channel and below the Ichimoku cloud. A short-term trend remains bearish but very close to changing. I expect an upward move in Gold that will break above $1,200 and change the short-term trend to bullish. Short-term support is at $1,160 and resistance at $1,190-$1,200.

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The two last weekly candles have long lower tails while their bodies remain above the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement. The stochastic oscillator is for quite a long-time in oversold levels and diverging. I continue to expect a strong upward reversal from this area. If support fails we should expect a new low near $1,120.The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

USD/CAD intraday technical levels and trading recommendations for December 6, 2016

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On May 16, a bullish pullback towards 1.3000 (61.8% Fibonacci level) was expected to offer a valid signal to sell the USD/CAD pair. However, a lack of a significant bearish rejection was manifested during recent consolidations.

On May 18, temporary bullish fixation above 1.3000 (61.8% Fibonacci level) opened the way towards the 1.3180 level where significant bearish pressure was originated.

Bearish persistence below 1.3000-1.2970 (61.8% Fibonacci level) was needed to enhance bearish momentum in the market.

However, on August 18 signs of bullish recovery were manifested around the price level of 1.2830 which led to the current bullish breakout above 1.3000.

The USD/CAD pair was trapped between the price levels of 1.3000 (61.8% Fibonacci level) and 1.3360 (50% Fibonacci level) until bullish breakout took place three weeks ago.

Note that the USD/CAD pair was challenging the upper limit of the depicted flag pattern around 1.3360-1.3400 which failed to apply enough bearish pressure on the pair.

However, significant bearish engulfing weekly candlestick was expressed by the end of the last week indicating strong resistance around 1.3550.

Bearish persistence below the price level of 1.3300 (61.8% Fibonacci Level) is needed to enhance further bearish decline towards 1.3200 and 1.3090.

Otherwise, bullish breakout above 1.3360 will probably liberate a quick bullish movement towards 1.3650 (Low probability).

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Intraday technical levels and trading recommendations for GBP/USD for December 6, 2016

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The price zone between 1.3845 and 1.3550 (Historical bottoms set in January 2009) was considered a significant demand zone to be watched for bullish recovery.

However, by the end of June a significant bearish break below 1.3550 was expressed as seen on the depicted charts (fundamental reasons).

Bearish persistence below the demand level at 1.3550 enhanced the bearish scenario towards the current price levels around 1.2700 (nearest bearish projection target).

Note that the GBP/USD pair was trapped inside the depicted consolidation range above 1.2700 until a bearish breakout took place on October 6.

Daily persistence below 1.2700 confirmed the bearish Flag pattern. That is why, a bearish projection target would be located around 1.2020.

Recently, bullish recovery was manifested around 1.2080. That is why, a bullish pullback is being executed towards 1.2700-1.2750.

The current bullish pullback towards the price zone of 1.2700-1.2750 should be considered for a valid SELL entry.

T/P levels should be located at 1.2300 and 1.2100 while S/L should be set as daily closure above 1.2800.

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Elliott wave analysis of EUR/NZD for December 6, 2016

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Wave summary:

We have finally seen the first good indication that a long-term low is in place with the test of 1.4737. Short term, we will look for support near 1.4985 to be able to protect the downside for a break above 1.5139 and more importantly a break above resistance at 1.5266 that confirms the ending diagonal has completed and that an impulsive rally back to the origin of the ending diagonal at 1.5839 is developing.

Longer term, much more upside will be expected.

Trading recommendation:

We are long EUR from 1.4750 and will move our stop to break-even. If you are not long EUR yet, then buy near 1.4936 or upon a break above 1.5139 and use the same stop at 1.4750.

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Elliott wave analysis of EUR/JPY for December 6, 2016

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Wave summary:

The break above resistance at 121.89 invalidated the expected triangle consolidation and instead told us that an expanded flat is unfolding. If this count is correct, then the high seen at 123.19 should cap the upside for a break below minor support at 122.04 for a decline towards the 118.00 - 118.39 area to completed wave (iv) and set the stage for the final rally in wave (v) towards 124.04. This will complete wave (v) and 3 and call for a new correction in wave 4 towards 118.39 before higher again.

Trading recommendation:

We will sell EUR upon a break below minor support at 122.04 with stop placed at 123.25 take profit will be placed at 118.45.

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Intraday technical levels and trading recommendations for EUR/USD for December 6, 2016

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In January 2015, the EUR/USD pair moved below the major demand levels near 1.2100 where historical bottoms were previously set in July 2012 and June 2010. Hence, a long-term bearish target was projected towards 0.9450.

In March 2015, the EUR/USD bears challenged the monthly demand level around 1.0570, which had been previously reached in August 1997.

Later in April 2015, a strong bullish recovery was observed around the mentioned demand level. However, next monthly candlesticks (September, October, and November) reflected a strong bearish rejection around the area of 1.1400-1.1500.

Again in February 2016, the depicted price levels around 1.1400-1.1500 acted as a significant supply zone during the bullish pullback.

That is why, recent bearish rejection was expected around the depicted supply levels (note the monthly candlesticks of May, August, and October 2016).

In the longer term, the level of 0.9450 will remain a projected bearish target when the current monthly candlestick comes to close below the depicted monthly demand level of 1.0570.

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The long-term outlook for the EUR/USD pair remains bearish as the monthly chart illustrates. Bearish persistence below 1.0825 is needed to enhance this bearish scenario.

In September 2016, temporary bullish breakout above 1.1250 was expressed again, but evident bearish pressure was applied on the EUR/USD pair on September 16.

Bearish closure below 1.1250 (supply level 1) maintained enough bearish pressure and enhanced the bearish momentum towards the price level of 1.1000 (key level 1).

On November 9, obvious bearish breakdown of the 1.1000 price level occurred (Shooting Star daily candlestick). Moreover, further bearish decline below 1.0825 (Fibonacci Expansion 100%) was expressed.

The current bearish persistence below 1.0825 allowed further bearish decline to occur towards 1.0570 (demand level) where bullish rejection and a valid BUY entry were expected by the end of last week.

Recent bullish recovery is being manifested on the depicted daily chart.

The price level of 1.0825 (Fibonacci Expansion 100%) constitutes a recent supply level to be watched for a SELL entry if the current bullish pullback persists above 1.0700.

On the other hand, obvious bearish closure below the depicted demand level around 1.0570 allows further bearish decline. Initial bearish target would be located around 1.0220.

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Technical analysis of EUR/USD for Dec 06, 2016

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When the European market opens, some Economic Data will be released, such as ECOFIN Meetings, Revised GDP q/q, Retail PMI, and German Factory Orders m/m. The US will release the economic data, too, such as IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism, Factory Orders m/m, Revised Unit Labor Costs q/q, Trade Balance, and Revised Nonfarm Productivity q/q. So, amid the reports, EUR/USD will move in a low to medium volatility during this day.

TODAY'S TECHNICAL LEVEL:

Breakout BUY Level: 1.0808.

Strong Resistance:1.0802.

Original Resistance: 1.0791.

Inner Sell Area: 1.0780.

Target Inner Area: 1.0755.

Inner Buy Area: 1.0730.

Original Support: 1.0719.

Strong Support: 1.0708.

Breakout SELL Level: 1.0702.

Disclaimer: Trading Forex (foreign exchange) on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.

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Technical analysis of USD/JPY for Dec 06, 2016

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In Asia, Japan will release the Average Cash Earnings y/y, and the US will release some Economic Data, such as IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism, Factory Orders m/m, Revised Unit Labor Costs q/q, Trade Balance, and Revised Nonfarm Productivity q/q. So, there is a probability the USD/JPY will move with low to medium volatility during this day.

TODAY'S TECHNICAL LEVEL:

Resistance. 3: 114.21.

Resistance. 2: 113.98.

Resistance. 1: 113.76.

Support. 1: 113.50.

Support. 2: 113.27.

Support. 3: 113.05.

Disclaimer: Trading Forex (foreign exchange) on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.

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EUR/USD approaching major resistance, prepare to sell

Price is approaching major resistance at 1.0808 (Fibonacci projection, Fibonacci retracement, horizontal swing high resistance) where we expect a reaction from for a drop towards 1.0688 (Fibonacci retracement, horizontal overlap support).

Stochastic (21,5,3) is seeing major resistance at the 96% level.

Sell below 1.0808. Stop loss at 1.0924. Take profit at 1.0688.

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NZD/USD close to major resistance, prepare to turn bearish

Price is now approaching major resistance at 0.7147 (Fibonacci projection, horizontal swing high resistance, bearish divergence) and we expect price to drop towards at least out 0.7113 support (Fibonacci retracement, horizontal overlap support).

Stochastic (21,5,3) is seeing resistance at 91% and also displaying bearish divergence vs price which means a reversal is approaching.

Sell below 0.7147. Stop loss at 0.7173. Take profit at 0.7113.

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EUR/JPY approaching major resistance, time to turn bearish

Price has shot up perfectly and reached our profit target from yesterday. We prepare to turn bearish below 122.71 major resistance (Fibonacci projection, rejection candlestick, bearish divergence vs RSI) for a drop towards at least 120.46.

RSI (34) displays major bearish divergence vs price signalling a major reversal is impending.

Sell below 112.71. Stop loss at 123.45. Take profit at 120.46.

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AUD/USD at major resistance, prepare to be bearish

Price is now at major resistance at 0.7500 (Fibonacci projection, horizontal resistance, Fibonacci retracement) where we expect a reaction from and a drop to at least 0.7370.

RSI (34) remains below major 61% resistance.

Sell below 0.7500. Stop loss at 0.7557. Take profit at 0.7370.

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Daily analysis of GBP/USD for December 06, 2016

The pair managed to fill the bearish gap produced by the Italian Referendum's uncertainty and currently, it's trying to consolidate above the resistance level of 1.2732. That area should be key during this week, as it can help to cap further gains in GBP/USD, but our short-term view is still calling for more bullish bias ahead, looking for the 1.2840 level across the board.

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H1 chart's resistance levels: 1.2732 / 1.2840

H1 chart's support levels: 1.2625 / 1.2568

Trading recommendations for today: Based on the H1 chart, buy (long) orders only if the GBP/USD pair breaks a bullish candlestick; the resistance level is at 1.2732, take profit is at 1.2840 and stop loss is at 1.2625.

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Daily analysis of USDX for December 06, 2016

The index plummeted strongly during Monday's session and it achieved to erase last week's range. We're watching a bearish consolidation below the 200 SMA at H1 chart and it's finding a support around 99.98, where a demand zone is located. If USDX does a breakout below there, we can expect weakness toward the 99.39 level, while a rebound should help the index to re-test the resistance area of 101.74 level, which is above the 200 SMA.

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H1 chart's resistance levels: 100.68 / 101.74

H1 chart's support levels: 99.98 / 99.39

Trading recommendations for today: Based on the H1 chart, place buy (long) orders only if the USD Index breaks with a bullish candlestick; the resistance level is at 100.68, take profit is at 101.74 and stop loss is at 99.59.

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