Gold : analysis for September 16, 2014

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Overview:


Since our last analysis, gold has been trading upwards. The price tested the level of 1,241.88 in a volume below average. Gold started a bullish corrective phase. I have place Fibonacci expansion levels. I got Fibonacci expansion 61.8% at the price of 1,240.00 (currently on the test), Fibonacci expansion 100% at the price of 1,244.00 and Fibonacci expansion 161.8% at the price of 1,252.00. Our major Fibonacci expansion 100% is broken, so we may see potential testing the level of 1,218.00 (Fibonacci expansion 161.8%, almost tested). According to the 4H time frame, we can observe very weak demand in a volume below average, which is a sign that buying still looks risky. Watch for potential selling opportuntiies after retracement.


Daily pivot Fibonacci points:


Resistance levels:


R1: 1,238.46


R2: 1,241.50


R3: 1,246.43


Support levels:


S1: 1,228.60


S2: 1,225.56


S3: 1,220.63


Trading recommendations: Buying looks risky since the price has broke our Fibonacci expansion 100%.


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Elliott wave analysis of EUR/NZD for September 16 - 2014

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Today's support and resistance levels:


R3: 1.5930


R2: 1.5906


R1: 1.5895


Current spot: 1.5887


S1: 1.5831


S2: 1.5810


S3: 1.5795


Technical summary:


The correction we where looking for is unfolding nicely and we are still looking for this correction to move closer to 1.5766 before terminating and setting the stage for a new strong rally in wave iii higher towards 1.6203 on the way higher to 1.6450. In the short term, we will be looking for a break below minor support at 1.5831 confirming the decline to 1.5766.


Trading recommendation:


We are long in EUR from 1.5550 with stop placed at 1.5750. If you are not long in EUR yet, then buy near 1.5766 with the same stop at 1.5750.


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Elliott wave analysis of EUR/JPY for September 16 - 2014

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Today's support and resistance levels:


R3: 139.17


R2: 138.99


R1: 138.88


Current spot: 138.71


S1: 138.62


S2: 138.53


S3: 138.24


Technical summary:


The expected minor correction in red wave ii is unfolding as expected and likely need a little more downside pressure towards 137.66 before red wave ii is over and red wave iii can take over for a strong rally towards 143.79. Short term a break below minor support at 138.53 will confirm, that red wave c or red wave ii lower is developing for the decline to 137.66, which ideally will protect the downside, but as this is a wave two correction, we must accept a deeper correction.


Trading recommendation:


We are long in EUR from 135.95 and will keep our stop at 137.50. If you are not long in EUR yet, then buy near 138.17 with the same stop at 137.50.


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Technical analysis of EUR/JPY for September 16, 2014

General overview for 16/09/2014 11:30 CET


The market has bounced from the support level as anticipated and now the intraday range zone has been created between the levels of 138.42 (intraday support) and 138.83 (intraday resistance). Despite the fact, the first leg down from the wave B top at the level of 139.16 might be counted as five wave bearish impulsive decline, there is still no confirmation of any further impulsive downside wave development. The price is trading sideways and it might be counted as corrective wave ii but only a valid breakout below the key level zone makes that assumption more probable than any other.


Support/Resistance:

139.16 - 139.25 - Technical Resistance Zone

138.83 - Intraday Resistance

138.42 - Intraday Support

138.30 - Weekly Pivot

138.25 - Technical Support

137.48 - WS1 Trading recommendations:

Not much to add here: all swing traders that are still keeping buy orders from last week should get ready to close the positions and wait for a further wave progression as the trend looks mature and reversal/correction is possible. Breakout below the level of 138.25 is the first strong confirmation that the top for wave B black is in place at the level of 139.16. eurjpy_h1.jpg


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Technical analysis of NZD/USD for September 16, 2014

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Overview :



  • The NZD/USD pair has been showing a downward trend. Additionally, the price is still being trapped between 0.8237 and 0.8080 (weekly range). So, it makes sense to be neutral at this spot. Equally important, the support has set at the level of 0.8080 and a minor support has set at 0.8170 yesterday. As it is known, sellers are asking at a higher price. Accordingly, the price of the NZD/USD pair will give a good sign to sell below 0.8170 with the target of 0.8115. Also, if the trend will be able to break the 0.8115 price, hence, it might resume to 0.8080. However, if the trend fails to close below the strong support (0.88080), then the market will indicate a bullish opportunity above 0.8080. Thereupon, the level of 0.8080 is going to act as strong support. Therefore, it will a good sign to buy above this level on September 16, 2014. But the stop loss should be placed below 0.8080 at the price of 0.8035.


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Intraday trading recommendations :



  • According to the previous events, the price of NZD/USD pair has still been trapped between 0.8170 and 0.8080 .

  • Buy above the price of 0.8080 with the first target of 0.8144, it might resume to 0.8237.

  • Swing trade at the level of 0.8240 in order to sell with a target of 0.8155 then it will continue towards 0.8115, if could break the minor support (0.8115) then the market is going towards 0.8080.


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Technical analysis of USD/CHF for September 16, 2014

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Overview :



  • According to the previous events, the USD/CHF pair has still been moving between 0.9370 and 0.9320. It should be noted that the key level is set at the level of 0.9303 because it represents strong support and it coincides with the last weekly pivot point. Equally important, the double top will be formed at the 0.8868 level but it seems the price is going to break this level in order to continue towards the level of 0.9395. As it is known, history will probably repeat itself at this level again. Therefore, it will a good idea to sell below 0.9390 with the first target of 0.9333. It will call for a downtrend in order to continue its bearish movement towards 0.9303.


Notes :



  • The resistance will set at the level of 0.9385 this week.

  • The double top is going to set at the 0.9395 price.

  • The area of 0.9390 is useful spot to sell in the long term.

  • We expect a range of 60 pips on September 16 2014.


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#USDX Technical analysis for September 16, 2014

The Dollar index continues to trade inside the triangle consolidation pattern we noted yesterday. A break above 84.37 will give a buy signal. This could be a bullish flag pattern with the target near 85 meaning that resistance is broken.


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Red line = resistance


Blue line= support


The 4-hour chart shows clearly the triangle pattern being formed. According to the Ichimoku indicators, the trend remains bullish and there are more possibilities of an upward break towards 84.75 or even 85. Support that should hold is found at 84.


usdxd.jpg

Red line = resistance


The daily chart above remains fully bullish. Price making a sideways consolidation that we expect to be broken upwards as this looks like a bullish flag pattern. The Ichimoku cloud is below price and the tenkan-sen and kijun-sen remain in bullish trend. The Chikou span remains above the price candles and this is another bullish sign. We favor long positions above 84 with 85 as target.


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Gold Technical analysis for September 16, 2014

Gold price is making a short-term upward bounce from $1,225 and is testing short-term resistance at $1,240. The trend remains bearish and we expect the lows at $1,180 to be tested soon. In Ichimoku cloud terms, it is more possible to see the downtrend continue than have a bigger trend reversal.


goldh4.jpg

Red line = resistance


Blue line = support


Trend remains down. Price is making lower lows and lower highs. Price is below the resistance trend lines and below the cloud. Short-term support is found at $1,230. Breaking below that level will give us a short-term sell signal with $1,220-$1,215 1st targets.



Red line = resistance


Blue line = support


The daily chart above continues to be bearisH. An upward bounce towards $1,250 could be justified but as part of a corrective move. The longer-term trend remains down and we expect Gold to break $1,180 and push towards $1,000. Very important support at $1,180 will be difficult to be broken with one go. Trend reversal on a daily basis would occur if price would move above $1,300.


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Technical analysis of USD/JPY for Sep 16, 2014

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Fundamental Overview:


USD/JPY is expected to consolidate with a bullish bias. It is undermined by the lower U.S. Treasury yields (10-year at 2.591% versus 2.609% late Friday), diminished investor risk appetite (U.S. stocks closed mixed overnight with S&P 500 off 0.07%, DJIA up 0.26%; VIX fear gauge rose 6.09% to 14.12) on news that China's industrial growth slowed to a six-year low in August, jitters about the Scottish independence vote on Thursday and caution before Federal Reserve's interest rate decision on Wednesday. USD/JPY is also weighed by Japanese exporter sales. But USD/JPY downside is limited by the demand from Japanese importers and the positive USD sentiment as much-stronger-than-expected rise in Empire State's business conditions index to 27.5 in September from 14.7 in August (versus forecast 16.0) outweighs surprise 0.1% drop in U.S. August industrial production (versus forecast +0.3%) and lower-than-expected capacity utilization of 78.8% (versus forecast 79.3%).


Data focus:

0535 GMT Bank of Japan Governor Haruhiko Kuroda speech

1230 GMT U.S. August PPI

1300 GMT U.S. July Treasury international capital data.


Technical comment:
Daily chart is still positive-biased as MACD is bullish, stochastics stays elevated at overbought zone, 5 and 15-day moving averages are advancing, although inside-day-range pattern was completed on Monday.


Trading recommendations:
The pair is trading above its pivot point. It is likely to trade in a higher range as far as it remains above its pivot point. As long as the price is keeping above its pivot point, a long position is recommended with the first target at 107.50 and the second target at 107.85. In an alternative scenario, if the price moves below its pivot points, short positions are recommended with the first target at 106.60. A break of this target would push the pair further downwards and one may expect the second target at 106.20. The pivot point is at 106.90.


Resistance levels:

107.45

107.80

108.15


Support levels:

106.60

106.20

106


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Technical analysis of USD/CHF for Sep 16, 2014

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Fundamental Overview:


USD/CHF is expected to consolidate with a bullish bias. It is supported by the positive USD sentiment as much-stronger-than-expected rise in Empire State's business conditions index to 27.5 in September from 14.7 in August (versus forecast 16.0) outweighs surprise 0.1% drop in U.S. August industrial production (versus forecast +0.3%) & lower-than-expected capacity utilization of 78.8% (versus forecast 79.3%), more-than-expected 1.2% on-year drop in Switzerland August import price index (versus forecast -1.0%) and dovish Swiss National Bank's monetary policy and franc sales on soft CHF/JPY cross and on buoyant EUR/CHF cross.


Technical Comments:
Daily chart is mixed as MACD is bullish, five and 15-day moving averages are advancing, bullish outside-day-range pattern was completed on Monday, but stochastics is bearish at the overbought zone.


Trading recommendations:


The pair is trading above its pivot point. It is likely to trade in a higher range as far as it remains above its pivot point. As long as the price is keeping above its pivot point, a long position is recommended with the first target at 0.9370 and the second target at 0.94. In an alternative scenario, if the price moves below its pivot points, short positions are recommended with the first target at 0.9310. A break of this target would push the pair further downwards and one may expect the second target at 0.9290. The pivot point is at 0.9330.


Resistance levels:

0.9370

0.94

0.9430



Support levels:


0.9310

0.9290

0.9250


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Technical analysis of NZD/USD for Sep 16, 2014

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Fundamental Overview:


NZD/USD is expected to consolidate in a lower range after hitting a seven-month low 0.8121 on Monday. It is supported by the Kiwi demand on soft AUD/NZD cross. But NZD/USD gains are tempered by the reduced investor risk appetite, the positive USD sentiment and less hawkish Reserve Bank of New Zealand's policy stance and weak dairy prices. It is undermined by the lower U.S. Treasury yields (10-year at 2.591% versus 2.609% late Friday), diminished investor risk appetite (U.S. stocks closed mixed overnight with S&P 500 off 0.07%, DJIA up 0.26%; VIX fear gauge rose 6.09% to 14.12) on news that China's industrial growth slowed to a six-year low in August, jitters about the Scottish independence vote on Thursday and caution before Federal Reserve's interest rate decision on Wednesday.


Technical Comment:
The daily chart is mixed as MACD is bearish, 5 and 15-day moving averages are falling, but stochastics is turning bullish at the oversold zone, bullish-piercing candlestick pattern was completed on Monday.


Trading recommendations:
The pair is trading below its pivot point. It is likely to trade in a lower range as far as it remains below its pivot point. Short position is recommended with the first target at 0.8120. A break of this target will move the pair further downwards to 0.8075. The pivot point stands at 0.8190. In case the price moves in the opposite direction and bounces back from the support level, then it will moves above its pivot point. It is likely to move further to the upside. In that scenario, a long position is recommended with the first target at 0.8225 and the second target at 0.8265.


Resistance levels:

0.8225

0.8265

0.8305


Support levels:

0.8120

0.8175

0.8135


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Intraday trading recommendations on EUR/JPY for September 16, 2014

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The pair made a double top at 139.18 in the daily chart. In yesterday's session, the pair moved to lower levels, but managed to hold above the breakout level. Today, the pair moved lower again, but as of today held the previous days low. The daily stochastic does not favor fresh long positions. We recommend buying above 139.25 for an upside target for an immediate target at the 139.95-140.05 levels. The descending trend line is acting as strong resistance in the near term. On a daily closing basis, 138.30 will as an initial support level.


For an intraday session, the pair has been facing strong resistance at 35DEMA. The resistance zone existed between the 138.78-138.85 levels. We recommend buying above 138.80 and selling below 138.45. The 21hr sma at 138.58 acting as strong support .


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Technical analysis of GBP/JPY for Sep 16, 2014

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Fundamental Overview:


GBP/JPY is expected to consolidate with a bullish bias. It is undermined by the soft EUR sentiment, Japanese export sales and by jitters over the Scottish independence referendum on Thursday and waning investor risk appetite. But JPY/JPY losses are tempered by the demand from Japanese importers.


Technical Comment:
The daily chart is mixed as MACD is bullish, five-day moving average is above 15-day MA and is advancing, but stochastics is turning bearish at overbought zone, inside-day-range pattern was completed on Monday.


Trading recommendations:
The pair is trading above its pivot point. It is likely to trade in a higher range as far as it remains above its pivot point. As long as the price is keeping above its pivot point, a long position is recommended with the first target at 174.70 and the second target at 175.40. In an alternative scenario, if the price moves below its pivot points, short positions are recommended with the first target at 172.60. A break of this target would push the pair further downwards and one may expect the second target at 172. The pivot point is at 173.30.


Resistance levels:

174.70

175.40

176



Support levels:


172.60

172

171.45


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Technical analysis of EUR/USD for September 16, 2014

When the European market opens, some economic news will be released such as ZEW Economic Sentiment. The US will release the economic data too such as the PPI m/m, Core PPI m/m, TIC Long-Term Purchases, so amid the reports, EUR/USD will move with low to medium volatility during this day.


TODAY TECHNICAL LEVELS:


Breakout BUY Level: 1.3000.


Strong Resistance:1.2993.

Original Resistance: 1.2980.

Inner Sell Area: 1.2967.

Target Inner Area: 1.2937.

Inner Buy Area: 1.2907.

Original Support: 1.2894.

Strong Support: 1.2881.

Breakout SELL Level: 1.2874.


Disclaimer: Trading Forex (foreign exchange) on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.


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Technical analysis of USD/JPY for September 16, 2014

In Asia, Japan will release the BOJ Gov Kuroda Speech, German ZEW Economic Sentiment; the US will release some economic data such as PPI m/m, Core PPI m/m, TIC Long-Term Purchases. So there is a big probability the USD/JPY will move with low to medium volatility during the day.

TODAY TECHNICAL LEVELS:

Resistance. 3: 107.57.

Resistance. 2: 107.36.

Resistance. 1: 107.15.

Support. 1: 106.89.

Support. 2: 106.68.

Support. 3: 106.47. Disclaimer: Trading Forex (foreign exchange) on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.


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Intraday trading recommendations for USD/CAD for September 16, 2014

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The pair made a double top at 1.11 (rounded). The pair has support between 1.1030-1.1026 61.8 fib level, below these, it has support at 1.1 and 1.0950 50.0 fib level. For the short term, it has support at 1.0862 and 1.0834 levels. Until the pair closes above 1.0834, use every dip to buy. In the near term the pair has support at 1.0934, the bulls need to worry only close below this. We recommend a fresh buy above 1.11 for an upside target at 1.1150, 1.20 and 1.1225 levels. The pair has a long list of supports to save the bulls.


Support 1.1026 1.0950 1.0834


Resistance 1.11 1.1150 1.1225


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For an intraday basis, the pair is trading at 1.1053 level in the Pacific session. The pair has support at 1.1036 levels. The prices closed below 35DEMA and 12EMA, representing some weakness on an hourly basis. We recommend selling only below 1.1036 for a downside target at 1.30, 1.1020, 1.1, 1.0988 and 1.0950. Safe traders can sell below 1.0930.


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Intraday trading recommendations for Gold for September 16, 2014

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Traders eye on the Fed's press conference. Expectations are rising daily that the Federal Reserve will raise the key interest rates earlier than expected, this fact puts pressure on the yellow metal. The metal drifted to 80.0 fib level in yesterday's session, managed to pull back from there. The metal is facing resistance at previous swing low in the weekly chart. On the down side, below $1,225, it will fall to $1,217 and $1,210 in the NT and again lower levels in the ST $1,185-1,150 levels. On the upside, the initial resistance is at $1,240, above this, $1,250 and $1,262-$1,265 levels. Until the metal closes above $1,265 on a daily basis, selling on up move will favor. Above $1,265, it can fly up to $1,285 in the NT, we are positive only above $1,265 in the NT.


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For an intraday session, the metal prices managed to close above 35DEMA but facing strong resistance between 12ema and 21hrsma. The metal has support at $1,231, $1,227 and $1,225. Below $1,231, the metal looks weak and panic below $1,225 towards $1,217 and $1,210 immediately. On the upper side, it will face resistance at $1,238, above this, it can fly up to $1,240 and $1,243. Strong up move only above $1,243 towards $1,250 levels.


Sell below $1,230, panic below $1,225.


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Technical analysis of EUR/JPY for September 16, 2014


Technical outlook and chart setups:


The EUR/JPY pair seems to be preparing for a pullback after printing highs at 139.20 levels, almost shy of 4 pips from the expected target at 139.25/25 levels. Please note that any intraday or interday pullback/retracement should be taken as an opportunity to enter long positions again. Minimum expectations for a pullback is towards 138.00 levels which is also past resistance turned support level now. Support on the daily chart view is at 135.80/136.00 while resistance is placed at 139.30/40, followed by 140.00 and higher respectively.


Trading recommendations:


Remain long, add further on dips, move stop to break even levels, target is 139.80.


Good luck!


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Technical analysis of Silver for September 16, 2014


Technical outlook and chart setups:


Silver has been in a broad consolidation range since June 2013 as depicted on the weekly chart view here. The consolidation type has been decreasing resistance ( $25.10, $22.70, $21.60) and constant support ( $18.20/50). Normally such consolidation ranges break lower, hence it is recommended to enter long positions only after confirmed reversal signal appearance around the support levels. The metal is currently trading at $18.69 levels and might be preparing to produce bullish reversal signal. Please note that support is at $18.20/50 while resistance begins from $20.00 levels.


Trading recommendations:


Flat for now, looking to initiate long positions on reversal.


Good luck!




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Technical analysis of Gold for September 16, 2014


Technical outlook and chart setups:


Gold might be preparing to at least pullback from current levels at $1,234.00/35.00, after printing lows around $1,225.00/26.00 levels last week. A daily reversal signal is still awaited to confirm the same though. As depicted here, the metal is seen to be bouncing off the 0.786 fibonacci support of the entire rally between $1,180.00 and $1,388.00. A bullish reversal here, still keeps the uptrend structure intact while a break below, could see the metal testing $1,180.00 levels again before reversing. Immediate support is seen at $1,218.00 levels, followed by $1,180.00/82.00 while resistance is seen at $1,277.00, followed by $1,296.00 and higher up respectively.


Trading recommendations:


Remain flat for now. Look to initiate long positions.


Good luck!




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Daily analysis of USDX for September 16, 2014

Daily chart: USDX continues moving in the range below the resistance level of 84.29, because this instrument is overbought in this chart. Now, the USDX could begin to perform deeper corrective movements. If the USDX manages to make a breakout at the 83.74 level, it would be expected to fall to the support level of 83.22. The MACD indicator is entering overbought area.


USDXDaily.png

H4 chart: The USDX continues to find support on the bullish trend line which is located at the level of 84.20, so it is very likely that the USDX will attempt to break out at the resistance level of 84.47 to rise up to the level of 85.06. For now, the USDX remains above the 200 SMA. The MACD indicator is in negative territory.


USDXH4.png

H1 chart: The USDX is trying to make a rebound on the support level of 84.18 to climb to the resistance level of 84.37. If the USDX manages to make a breakout at that level, the next target would be the resistance level of 84.60. The MACD indicator remains in negative territory.


USDXH1.png


Trading recommendations for today: Based on the H1 chart, place buy (long) orders only if the USD Index breaks with a bullish candlestick; the resistance level is at 84.18, take profit is at 84.37, and stop loss is at 83.99.


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Daily analysis of GBP/USD for September 16, 2014

Daily chart: The GBP/USD is trying to stay above the support level of 1.6235, though this pair continues to fill the bearish gap created a few weeks ago. Now, the GBP/USD could climb up to the resistance level of 1.6326. If this pair manages to make a breakout at that level, it would be expected to rise to the level of 1.6447. The MACD indicator is entering oversold zone.


GBPUSDDaily.png


H4 chart: This pair continues to find resistance at the 1.6247 level and now, the GBP/USD is trying to make a breakout at that level to climb to the resistance level of 1.6435, which is very close to the 200-day moving average. If the GBP/USD performs a pullback at current levels, it would be expected to fall to the support level of 1.6004. The MACD indicator is entering overbought area.


GBPUSDH4.png


H1 chart: The GBP/USD encountered resistance at the 200-day moving average, so this pair could try to make a breakout at the support level of 1.6216. If it does, it will be expected to fall up to the 1.6170 level, which would be a continuation of the bearish trend in the medium term. The MACD indicator remains in negative territory.


GBPUSDH1.png


Trading recommendations for today: Based on the H1 chart, place sell (short) orders only if the GBP/USD pair breaks a bearish candlestick; the support level is at 1.6216, take profit is at 1.6170, and stop loss is at 1.6263.


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