USD/JPY analysis for July 21, 2017

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Recently, the USD/JPY pair has been trading downwards. As I expected, the price tested the level of 111.26. According to the 4H time frame, the price is still making lower highs and lower lows, which is a sign that sellers are in control. Strong breakout of a rising wedge in the background is a strong technical signal for a further downward move. My advice is to watch for potential selling opportunities. The downward targets are set at the price of 111.00 and 111.65.

Resistance levels:

R1: 111.68

R2: 112.00

R3: 112.20

Support levels:

S1: 111.15

S2: 111.95

S3: 110.60

Trading recommendations for today: watch for potential selling opportunities.

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EUR/USD analysis for July 21, 2017

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Recently, the EUR/USD pair has been trading upwards. As I expected, the price tested the level of 1.1676. According to the 15M time frame, I found broken yesterday's high and a successful re-test, which is a sign that selling looks risky. My advice is to watch for potential buying opportuntiies. Another sign of strength is that RSI is rejecting from 50 level. The upward target is set at the price of 1.1675.

Resistance levels:

R1: 1.1650

R2: 1.1665

R3: 1.1675

Support levels:

S1: 1.1630

S2: 1.1620

S3: 1.1610

Trading recommendations for today: watch for potential buying opportunities.

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NZD/USD Intraday technical levels and trading recommendations for July 21, 2017

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Daily Outlook

The NZD/USD pair has been trending up within the depicted bullish channel since January 2016.

In November 2016, early signs of bullish weakness were expressed on the chart when the pair failed to record a new high above 0.7400.

A bearish breakout of the lower limit of the channel took place in December 2016.

In February 2017, the depicted short-term downtrend was initiated in the depicted supply zone (0.7310-0.7380).

However, a recent bullish breakout above the downtrend line took place on May 22. Since then, the market has been bullish as depicted on the chart.

The price zone of 0.7150-0.7230 (SUPPLY ZONE in confluence with 61.8% Fibonacci level) stood as a temporary resistance zone until a bullish breakout was expressed above 0.7230.

This resulted in a quick bullish advance towards the next supply zone around 0.7310-0.7380 where evident bearish rejection and a valid SELL opportunity can be offered if enough bearish rejection is expressed.

Currently, the NZD/USD pair remains trapped between the price levels of 0.7230 - 0.7310 until a breakout occurs in either direction.

Trade recommendations:

Risky traders could have a valid SELL entry at retesting of the price zone of 0.7400 (upper limit of the supply zone).

S/L should be set as daily candlestick closure above 0.7450.

Conservative traders can wait for a bearish closure below 0.7300 for a better SELL signal. T/P levels should be placed at 0.7220, 0.7160, 0.7050.

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Technical analysis of USD/JPY for July 21, 2017

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USD/JPY is under pressure and expected to trade in a lower range. Although the pair posted a rebound from 111.50 (lows of July 19 and 20), the upward potential is likely to be limited by the resistance at 112.10. The relative strength index is mixed with a bearish bias.

Therefore, as long as 112.10 is not surpassed, look for a return to 111.10. A break below this level would trigger a new drop to 110.75.

Alternatively, if the price moves in the opposite direction than predicted, a long position is recommended above 112.10 with a target at 112.40.

Chart Explanation: The black line shows the pivot point. The current price above the pivot point indicates a bullish position while the price below the pivot point is a sign for a short position. The red lines show the support levels and the green line indicates the resistance level. These levels can be used to enter and exit trades.

Strategy: SELL, Stop Loss: 112.55, Take Profit: 111.50

Resistance levels: 112.40, 112.70, and 113.15 Support Levels: 111.10, 110.75, 110.50

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Intraday technical levels and trading recommendations for EUR/USD for July 21, 2017

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Monthly Outlook

In January 2015, the EUR/USD pair moved below the major demand levels near 1.2100 (multiple previous bottoms set in July 2012 and June 2010). Hence, a long-term bearish target is projected toward 0.9450.

In March 2015, EUR/USD bears challenged the monthly demand level around 1.0500, which had been previously reached in August 1997.

In the longer term, the level of 0.9450 remains a projected target if any monthly candlestick achieves bearish closure below the depicted monthly demand level of 1.0500.

Currently, the EUR/USD pair remains trapped within the depicted consolidation range (1.0500-1.1450) until a breakout occurs in either direction.

The recent bullish breakout above 1.1450 allowed a quick bullish advance towards 1.1500, 1.1600 and 1.1710 yet to come.

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Daily Outlook

In January 2017, the previous downtrend reversed when the Head and Shoulders pattern was established around 1.0500. Since then, evident bullish momentum has been expressed on the chart.

As anticipated, the ongoing bullish momentum allowed the EUR/USD pair to pursue further advance towards 1.1415-1.1520 (Daily Supply-Zone).

The daily supply zone failed to pause the ongoing bullish momentum. Instead, a temporary bullish breakout is being witnessed on the chart.

The nearest supply level to meet the pair is located around 1.1720 (August 2015 Highest level) where price action should be watched for a bearish pullback.

On the other hand, the price zone of 1.1260-1.1130 stands as a prominent DEMAND zone to be watched if bearish pullback persists below 1.1400.

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Technical analysis of USD/CHF for July 21, 2017

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USD/CHF is under pressure, and we will keep our yesterday's scenario to hold short position. The pair is holding on the downside. The 20-period moving average crossed below the 50-period one, which indicated the bearish signal. The relative strength index is bearish and is calling for a further decline.

Hence, as long as 0.9540 is not surpassed, look for a new drop to 0.9445 and even to 0.9400 in extension.

Chart Explanation: The black line shows the pivot point; the present price above pivot point indicates the bullish position and below pivot points indicates the short position. The red lines show the support levels and the green line indicates the resistance levels. These levels can be used to enter and exit trades.

Strategy: SELL, Stop Loss: 0.9540, Take Profit: 0.9445

Resistance levels: 0.9610, 0.9660, and 0.9695

Support levels: 0.9445, 0.9400, and 0.9365

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Elliott Wave Ananlysis of EUR/NZD for July 21, 2017

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Wave summary:

No much to add here. We are still looking for a break above 1.5899 to confirm the next impulsive rally higher towards 1.6236 and above. As long as resistance at 1.5899 is able to cap the upside, more sideways consolidation should be expected, but no break below 1.5419 can be accepted under this count.

Trading recommendation:

We are long EUR from 1.5510 with stop placed at 1.5410. If you are not long EUR yet, then buy a break above 1.5899 and use the same stop.

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Elliott Wave Ananlysis of EUR/JPY for July 21, 2017

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Wave summary:

The corrective structure has shifted in favor of a flat correction. Short-term, we expecte resistance at 130.77 will be able to cap the upside for a final leg lower to support at 127.22 to complete the flat correction in wave iv and then move higher towards 133.46 in wave v.

Trading recommendation:

Our stop at 129.70 was hit for a small profit of only 10 pips. We will sell EUR here at 129.88 with stop+revers at 130.80 and take profit placed at 127.50.

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Daily analysis of major pairs for July 21, 2017

EUR/USD: On the EUR/USD pair, bulls are clear winners this week. Price has already gone above the multi-month high at 1.1600 (which was our ultimate target for the week). Since there is a strong Bullish Confirmation Pattern in the market, price would continue going further upwards until it reaches the resistance line at 1.1700.

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USD/CHF: This pair has fallen by 140 pips this week, now testing the support level at 0.9500. The support level would soon be breached to the downside as price targets another support levels at 0.9450 and 0.9400. The bias on the market is strongly bearish. Thus, long trades are not recommended at this time.

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GBP/USD: In spite of the consolidation to the downside, which has been witnessed so far this week, there is still hope of a further bullish movement in this market. The EMA 11 is above the EMA 56, and the RSI period 14 is above the level 50. A further bullish movement might be witnessed from here.

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USD/JPY: There is a Bearish Confirmation Pattern in the USD/JPY 4-hour chart. Owing to the weakness of USD, the EMA 11 has crossed the EMA 56 to the downside. About 270 pips have been given up since July 11, and it is expected that the market would continue to go more and more bearish, reaching the demand levels at 111.50 and 111.00.

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EUR/JPY: The only factor that prevents this cross pair from coming downwards is the stamina in EUR itself. The bulls have held out so far, and the bias would continue to be bullish as long as EUR is strong. The next targets for the bulls are located at supply levels at 130.00 and 130.50.

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Technical analysis of GBP/JPY for July 21, 2017

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Our target which we predicted in yesterday's analysis has been hit. GBP/JPY is still under pressure. The pair is rebounding and has broken above its declining 20-period moving average.

The relative strength index is above its neutrality level at 50. Nevertheless, 145.70 is playing a key resistance role, which should limit the upside potential.

As long as 145.70 holds on the upside, expect a return to 144.10. A break below this level would call for a further decline towards 143.20.

Alternatively, if the price moves in the opposite direction as predicted, a long position is recommended above 145.70 with the target at 146.25.

Chart Explanation: the black line shows the pivot point. The price above pivot point indicates the bullish position and when it is below pivot points, it indicates a short position. The red lines show the support levels and the green line indicates the resistance levels. These levels can be used to enter and exit trades.

Strategy: SELL, Stop Loss: 145.70, Take Profit: 144.10.

Resistance levels: 146.25, 146.70, and 147.15

Support levels: 144.10, 143.20, and 142.45.

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Technical analysis of NZD/USD for July 21, 2017

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Both of our targets have been hit which we predicted in yesterday's analysis. NZD/USD is still expected to trade in a higher range as the pair is trading above the trend line. The pair accelerated on the upside after breaking above the upper boundary of the bearish channel. The upward momentum is further reinforced by the rising 20-period and 50-period moving averages. The relative strength index is bullish and calls for further advance.

Hence, as long as 0.7380 holds on the downside, look for a new advance to 0.7470 and even to 0.7500 in extension.

Strategy: BUY Stop Loss: 0.7380 Take Profit: 0.7470

Chart Explanation:

The black line shows the pivot point. Currently, the price is above the pivot point which indicates the bullish position. If it is below the pivot points, it indicates the short position. The red lines show the support levels and the green line indicates the resistance levels. These levels can be used to enter and exit trades.

Resistance levels: 0.7470, 0.7500, and 0.7545

Support levels: 0.7360, 0.7330, and 0.7285

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Trading plan 07/21/2017

The overall picture: Trend against the dollar.

The main event of the week was the ECB was retained.

ECB President Draghi recognized that the EU is growing more confidently, however, the inflation is still too low and growth is insufficient.

It is uncertain if the EURUSD showed robust growth following the decision of the ECB.

Based on the fundamental analysis for novice traders, the current upward movement of the euro is inconsistent.

The only reasonable explanation is that the euro is being bought because the market players believe that the euro is undervalued to the dollar.

When all the risks are behind, the euro recalls in the previous years, during 2009 to 2013, the average of the EUR / USD was about 1.3000 and from this point of view, the euro could have a growth potential of up to 1.3000.

In addition, the growth trend of the euro moves constantly in 4.5 months in a row (!).

EURUSD

Trend upward.

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GBPUSD Purchases with a target of 1.3140.

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USDCHF

Sales from the rebound upward.

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USDJPY

Purchases with a target of 114.40 (below 110.30 - cancellation of purchases).

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Global macro overview for 21/07/2017

Global macro overview for 21/07/2017:

The dovish comments from Deputy Governor of the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) Guy Debelle had an impact on the Australian Dollar. Debelle urged the markets not to read too much into the board's discussion on the neutral rate. He said that "no significance should be read into the fact the neutral rate was discussed at this particular meeting" and "most meetings, the board allocates some time to discussing a policy-relevant issue in more detail, and on this occasion, it was the neutral rate". He also emphasized that "other central banks increase their policy rates does not automatically mean that the policy rate here needs to increase". At the end he added, that the rising Australian Dollar is complicating the economy's adjustment, so appreciation of AUD is not welcome, despite the fact, that recent data has given the RBA a little more confidence in the economy.

The recent economic data from Australia was better than expected. The unemployment rate is low, full-time employment is increasing, wages are on the rice together with the inflationary pressures which are way above the RBA projections. In this situation, a further improvement of the economic conditions may encourage the Reserve Bank of Australia to change the course of monetary policy, so it might start to signal a willingness to increase the interest rate sooner than global investors expect. This will in return cause an appreciation of the Australian Dollar across the board, however, this is not that much welcome according to Debelle.

Let's now take a look at the AUD/USD technical picture after the news release. Debelle's comments initiated a pullback from the recent highs at the level of 0.7988 and it looks like the market wants to test the technical support at the level of 0.7838. The overbought market conditions and clear bearish divergence support this view.

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Global macro overview for 21/07/2017

Global macro overview for 21/07/2017:

The European Central Bank has left the interest rates unchanged at 0.0% as widely expected. During the press conference, ECB President Mario Draghi said that asset purchases will continue at least through December or until ECB sees sustained inflation pickup. Moreover, he said that incoming information confirms strengthening of the economy that has been broadening and the economic growth risks broadly balanced, but better growth has yet to translate into stronger inflation dynamics. A very substantial amount of stimulus is still needed and the ECB is ready to increase stimulus, he added at the end.

The ECB sees the strength of the economy, which is expanding from country to country as well, but does not see that it is affecting the underlying inflation. Among the ECB policymakers, there is a strong and unequivocal conviction that price pressure will gradually increase. The ECB Governing Council is also aware that this process is still developing. The ECB is certain, that implementation of powerful monetary loosening plays the main role in this development and now it has only to wait for the spillover of the economic recovery on wages and prices. Only if this does not happen, another round of loosening will be triggered, including an extension of the purchase of assets.

All this rather dovish statements from the ECB did not give a boost to the market to give up a positive attitude towards the Euro, especially with the US Dollar as weak as it was recently. The fate of this appreciation will be determined by the information from the economy, especially the inflation readings. It is hard to resist the impression that the bold valuation of the prospects of ECB policy is a threat to the currency and creates a great field of disappointment. On the other hand, the FED's future steps regarding the interest rate hikes and monetary policy are underestimated and create a chance for the US Dollar to bounce and reverse from he oversold levels in the medium-term.

Let's now take a look at the EUR/USD technical picture on the H4 time frame. With a clearly anti-US Dollar sentiment, the deep-seated optimism of the ECB's Governing Council was enough to push the price above the May 2016 high. The market is already approaching the key resistance at 1.1715, where are the highs made in August 2015. This level will be violated soon, but the situation might change very fast when the market tries to reverse from this zone.

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Euro and the Pound Remain Favorites

Eurozone

Today, the ECB will hold a regular meeting on monetary policy, at the moment heightened uncertainty remains on its outcome.

In fact, the ECB has only one crucial reason for refining from completing the easing program.

Partial profit-taking before the meeting helped to reduce prices to 1.15, but the probability of resuming growth remains at a high level.

United Kingdom

The level of consumer inflation dropped for the first time since April 2016, but remains at a high level.

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The British economy was much more resilient than forecasted despite Brexit, but signs of a slowdown in GDP growth are becoming clearer. Growth in the first quarter was only 0.2%, this is the worst result from all of the EU countries, while the second quarter was slightly better. The main reason is a drop in private consumption, the weak pound contributing to a rise in import prices, and a low nominal increase in average wages coupled with high inflation which led to real wages becoming negative for the first time since 2014.

Will the Bank of England decide to raise the rate under these conditions? There are arguments in favor of this decision. In particular, inflation is still higher and unemployment is lower than forecasted back in May. There is no unity among BoE officials. In particular, in June, three of the eight committee members voted for an immediate rate hike and Bank of England chief economist Andrew Haldane said he will likely join the hawks.

Thus, the pound remains highly uncertain. Large banks offer opposite scenarios. In particular, Commerzbank expects the decline of the GBPUSD to 1.2880. On the other hand, Lloyds expects a growth to 1.34. The mood of investors might depend on the report on retail sales in May, the forecasts of experts are optimistic, as the data can support the pound in the short term.

Oil and ruble

The reduction in commercial oil reserves by 4.7 million barrels, according to the API, has contributed to the growth in oil prices.

Oil provides support to the Russian currency. In addition, several factors contribute to the strengthening of the ruble. The Ministry of Finance announced that it does not intend to impede the growth of the ruble and will not raise the volume of currency purchases. In addition, a number of large companies will conduct tax and dividend payments in the coming weeks. The ruble under these conditions will strengthen and could reach 57 rubles per dollar in the beginning of next week.

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Technical analysis of USDX for July 21, 2017

The Dollar index remains in a bearish trend in all time frames. Price made a new lower low today as its main component EUR/USD is rallying. The Dollar index has now reached our second target of 94.

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Blue lines - bearish channel

The Dollar index is trading inside the bearish channel. Price is right on top of the lower channel boundary. RSI (5) is oversold and diverging. The RSI (14) is diverging. Support is here at 94. Resistance is at 94.40. If broken we could see a push higher towards 94.70-94.80.

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Blue lines - bearish channel

The Dollar index remains inside the daily bearish channel and is clearly in a bearish trend as price continues to make lower lows and lower highs. Daily resistance is at 95.10 and next at 96. A short-term bounce towards 95-95.50 is justified from current levels but its counter trend so trading it would not be preferred.

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Technical analysis of gold for July 21, 2017

Gold price held the $1,235 support yesterday and has broken to new short-term highs. Price is trading just below $1,250 and our target of $1,260 is very close. Trend is bullish.

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Gold price is trading above both the tenkan- and kijun-sen indicators. Trend is bullish in the 4 hour chart. Price held above short-term support at $1,235 yesterday despite the initial selling pressures. Price made a new higher high confirming bullish trend.

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On a daily basis Gold remains in a bearish trend as price remains below the Kumo (cloud). Resistance is at $1,250-60 area. This was our minimum target area and we are approaching as planned. Gold may see some sellers here and a pull back. Taking partial profits is preferred.The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Trading plan for 21/07/2017

Trading plan for 21/07/2017:

Lower volatility was noted during the Asian session. EUR/USD remains in a narrow daily range just below yesterday's long-term highs and is currently at 1.1635. GBP/USD is testing a strong resistance at 1.300 level. USD/JPY after yesterday's decrease to 111.50 fights back over 112.00 level. The S&P500 index reached yesterday historically the highest levels around 2,475 points and currently is in a narrow pullback cycle.

On Friday 21st of July, the event calendar is light in important data releases, but some interesting data from Canada will be released later in the day: Consumer Price Index and Core CPI and Retail Sales.

USD/CAD analysis for 21/07/2017:

The inflation data from Canada are the most important data release for today and are scheduled at 12:30 pm GMT. Market participants expect the Consumer Price Index to decrease from 0.1% to -0.1% on a monthly basis and from 1.3% to 1.1% on a yearly basis. The latest comments from the Bank of Canada indicate a possible interest rate hike before the end of 2017, so financial markets will take today's bunch of data of the Canadian CPI and retail sales to see whether data supports tighter monetary policy in Canada. If the data beats the consensus, then the markets might get even more certain that the interest rate hike is on the table that will inflate the Canadian Dollar across the board.

Let's now take a look at the USD/CAD technical picture. The market fell out of a parallel downward channel some time ago and now is trying to test the 2016 low at the level of 1.2459. The last down leg was developed in the narrow channel as well, mostly due to severely oversold market conditions. In this situation, any data worse than excepted might cause a temporary counter- trend bounce towards the level of 1.2682 and 1.2770. Otherwise, the market is on a good way to spike down towards the 1.2459 support before any substantial pullback will occur.

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Market Snapshot: EUR/AUD breaks out above resistance

The price of EUR/AUD pair has broken above the technical resistance at the level of 1.4629 and now is trying to test the next technical resistance at the level of 1.2782. The market is bouncing from the oversold levels as well, but the momentum indicator is still below the fifty level. Any violation of this level will open the road towards the 1.5082 high.

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Market Snapshot: EUR/GBP close to the next resistance

The price of EUR/GBP has broken above the range zone between the level of 0.8754 - 0.8898 and violated the local high at the level of 0.8949 (now support). Currently, the bulls are trying to test another technical resistance at the level of 0.9026 and the rising momentum indicator supports this view.

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Fundamental Analysis of CAD/JPY for July 21, 2017

CAD/JPY is currently residing in a corrective volatile structure at the edge of breaking above the resistance level of 86.70. JPY has been quite weak against CAD which is currently came to a stop due to indecision in the market now. Yesterday JPY Policy Rate was published with an unchanged figure at -0.10% as per expectation, Trade Balance report showed a decrease to 0.08T which was expected to be unchanged at 0.12T and All Industrial Activity report showed negative figure at -0.9% which previously was at 2.3%. The unchanged policy rate report could not quite provide any positive impact on JPY against CAD yesterday which resulted in indecision and correction yesterday. Today a good amount of CAD economic events are going to be held including CPI report which is expected to be negative at -0.1% which previously was positive at 0.1%, Core Retail Sales is expected to show a decrease to 0.0% from the previous value of 1.5%, Common CPI is expected to be hawkish which previously was at 1.3%, Median CPI is expected to be hawkish which previously was at 1.5%, Retail Sales is expected to decrease to 0.3% which previously was at 0.8%, Trimmed CPI is expected to be hawkish which previously was at 1.2% and Core CPI is expected to be hawkish as well which previously was at 0.1%. To sum up, a good amount of economic event of CAD is going to be held today which is expected to bring in a good amount of volatility in the market and resulting to further gains on the CAD side. CAD has been quite hawkish in nature recently after the Interest Rate hike which is expected to continue further in the coming days.

Now let us look at the technical view, the price is currently at the edge of breaking above the resistance level of 86.70. The price has been correcting at this level since last 5 days and a breakout is expected to result today due to high impact CAD economic reports going to be published today. If we see a daily close above the 86.70 today then we will be looking forward to buying with a target towards 90.00 and if the price breaks below 86.70 with a daily close then we will be looking forward to selling with a target towards 87.50 which is the support of dynamic level 20 EMA.

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Technical analysis of EUR/USD for July 21, 2017

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Today, when the Euro Zone and thet US market open, no Economic Data will be released, so, amid the reports, EUR/USD will move in a low to medium volatility during this day.

TODAY'S TECHNICAL LEVEL:

Breakout BUY Level: 1.1685.

Strong Resistance:1.1678.

Original Resistance: 1.1667.

Inner Sell Area: 1.1656.

Target Inner Area: 1.1628.

Inner Buy Area: 1.1600.

Original Support: 1.1589.

Strong Support: 1.1578.

Breakout SELL Level: 1.1571.

Disclaimer: Trading Forex (foreign exchange) on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Fundamental Analysis of NZD/USD for July 21, 2017

NZD/USD has been in a non-volatile bullish trend recently which is expected to continue further until 0.7500 resistance level is reached in the coming days. Today NZD Visitor Arrivals report showed an increase to 5.1% which previously was -1.4%, as tourism plays a significant role in the New Zealand economy the report has a direct impact on the country's GDP resulting to good impact on the currency growth. Along with it, NZD Credit Card Spending report is also published today with a growth to 8.3% which previously was at 7.6%. On the USD side, the positive unemployment claims report yesterday which was published at 233k which was expected to be at 245k from the previous value of 248k, USD could not quite dominate the growth of the NZD which signals the strength of NZD to persist further in the coming days. Today there are no economic events on the USD side which might lead to further gain on the NZD in the future.

Now let us look at the technical view, the price has been quite non-volatile recently with the bullish momentum which could not properly violate the dynamic level of 20 EMA. As the price remains above the 20 EMA further bullish pressure towards 0.7500 resistance level is expected in the coming days.

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Technical analysis of USD/JPY for July 21, 2017

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In Asia, today both Japan and US market will not release any Economic Data. So, there is a probability the USD/JPY will move with low to medium volatility during this day.

TODAY'S TECHNICAL LEVEL:

Resistance. 3: 112.57.

Resistance. 2: 112.36.

Resistance. 1: 112.15.

Support. 1: 111.86.

Support. 2: 111.64.

Support. 3: 111.42.

Disclaimer: Trading Forex (foreign exchange) on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.

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Fundamental Analysis of EUR/AUD for July 21, 2017

EUR/AUD has shown a bullish impulsive momentum yesterday after the recent bearish trend which took the price towards the support level of 1.4500. Yesterday AUD Employment Change report was published with a decreased figure at 14.0k from the previous figure of 38.0k which was expected to be at 14.4k, Unemployment Rate was unchanged at 5.6% and NAB Quarterly Business Confidence was also published with an unchanged figure at 7. On the EUR side, yesterday Minimum Bid Rate was unchanged at 0.0% but the ECB Conference was hawkish in nature discussing Monetary policy, recent Interest Rate, the overall Economic Outlook, and Inflation. After the ECB press conference, the EUR has gained quite rapidly over AUD which is still intact and expected to continue further in the coming days. Today AUD RBA Assist Gov. Debelle and Bullock is going to speak about the future policy shifts and interest rates which are expected to be quite hawkish in nature. Despite the AUD economic events today EUR is expected to gain further against AUD in the short and medium term before proceeding further with the bearish trend in this pair.

Now let us look at the technical view, the price has recently shown impulsive bullish movement which may lead to further bullish pressure in this pair towards the resistance area of 1.4880-1.5100. As the price has bounced off the support level of 1.4500 yesterday there is a higher chance of price going for some bullish movement in the coming days. If we see any bullish rejection off the resistance area in the future then we will be looking forward more proceeding with the bearish trend with a target towards 1.4500 and further towards 1.3730.

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Fundamental Analysis of AUD/USD for July 21, 2017

After a non-volatile bullish trend after breaking above the 0.7750-0.7830 resistance area, AUD/USD has shown some indecision yesterday. Yesterday AUD/USD Employment Change report was published with a decreased figure at 14.0k from the previous value of 38.0k which was expected to be at 14.4k, Unemployment Rate was unchanged at 5.6% as expected and NAB Quarterly Business Confidence report was also unchanged at 7. Due to these economic reports, AUD could not sustain the bullish bias in the market and lead to indecision with a daily close. Today RBA Assist Gov. Debelle and Bullock is going to speak about nation's key interest rates and future policy shifts which are expected to be quite hawkish today. On the USD side, yesterday Unemployment Claims showed a better than expected figure at 233k from the previous value of 248k which was expected to be at 245k and Philly Fed Manufacturing Index report showed decrease figure at 19.5 from the previous value of 27.6 which was expected to be at 23.4. Today we do not have any economic events on the USD side. To sum up, due to mixed economic reports recently on both sides AUDUSD is currently residing in an indecision situation which is expected to continue for short and medium-term period. As USD has been showing some positive report recently there is a higher chance of USD dominating AUD in the coming days.

Now let us look at the technical view, the price is currently showing some bearish evidence in the market after an indecision daily candle of yesterday. As the dynamic level, 20 EMA is quite away from the current price a mean reversion to the dynamic level is expected in the market which may lead the price to be bearish towards 0.7830-50 area before proceeding further upwards with the trend. As the price remains above the support area of 0.7750-0.7830 the bullish bias is expected to continue with a target towards 0.80 resistance level.

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EUR/USD profit target reached perfectly, prepare to sell for a drop

The price has shot up from our buying level yesterday perfectly and reached our profit target once again. We prepare to sell below major resistance at 1.1691 (Fibonacci extension, Elliott wave theory) for a corrective push down to at least 1.1583 support (Fibonacci retracement, horizontal pullback support).

Stochastic (34,5,3) is seeing major resistance below 98% where we expect a corresponding reaction from.

Sell below 1.1691. Stop loss is at 1.1736. Take profit is at 1.1583.

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USD/CHF profit target reached perfectly, prepare to buy again

The price has shot up and reached our profit target before dropping strongly to another strong support level. We prepare to buy above 0.9500 support (big figure, Fibonacci extension, Elliott wave theory) for a push up to at least 0.9570 resistance (Fibonacci retracement).

Stochastic (34,5,3) is seeing strong support above 3.6% where we expect a bounce from in price.

Buy above 0.9500. Stop loss is at 0.9478. Take profit is at 0.9570.

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NZD/USD testing resistance, prepare to sell for a corrective drop

The price has risen strongly yesterday. We prepare to sell below 0.7413 resistance (Fibonacci extension, Elliott wave theory, bearish price action) for a push down to at least 0.7334 support (Fibonacci retracement, horizontal swing low support).

Stochastic (34,5,3) is reversing nicely from our 94% resistance with good downside potential to play the drop.

Sell below 0.7413. Stop loss is at 0.7437. Take profit is at 0.7334.

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GBP/USD approaching support, prepare to buy for a quick bounce

The price is approaching strong support at 1.2929 (Fibonacci retracement, Fibonacci extension, horizontal pullback support, bullish divergence) and we expect to see a strong bounce above this level to at least 1.3006 resistance (Fibonacci retracement, horizontal pullback resistance).

Stochastic (34,5,3) is seeing strong support above 9.59% where we expect a bounce from and also displays bullish divergence vs price signaling that a bounce is impending.

Buy above 1.2929. Stop loss is at 1.3006. Take profit is at 1.2897.

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AUD/JPY forming a very strong reversal signal, remain bearish

The price continues to test major resistance at 89.11 (Fibonacci extension, swing high resistance, bearish divergence) and we expect to see a reaction off this level for a drop to at least 87.52 support (Fibonacci retracement, horizontal swing low support).

Stochastic (34,5,3) continues to test our 98% resistance where we expect a drop from. We can also see price form bearish divergence vs stochastic signaling that a reversal is fast approaching.

Sell below 89.11. Stop loss is at 87.52. Take profit is at 89.61.

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USD/JPY right on major support, remain bullish for a bounce from here

The price continues to test our major support at 111.77 (Fibonacci retracement, Fibonacci extension, Elliott wave theory, horizontal overlap support) and we expect a bounce above this level for a push up to at least 114.32 resistance (Fibonacci extension, horizontal swing high resistance).

Stochastic (34,5,3) is right above major support at 1.2% which corresponds with the bounce we're expecting at price.

Buy above 111.77. Stop loss is at 110.88. Take profit is at 114.32.

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Technical analysis of USD/CHF for July 21, 2017

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Overview:

  • The USD/CHF pair.
  • Pivot: 0.9590.
  • The swissy fell from the level of 0.9665 to bottom at 0.9523. The USD/CHF pair has faced strong support at the level of 0.9523 (the double bottom). Current price is around the spot of 0.9520. So, the strong support has been already faced at the level of 0.9523 and the pair is likely to try to approach it in order to test it again and form a double bottom. Hence, the USD/CHF pair is continuing to trade in a bullish trend from the new support level of 0.9523; to form a bullish channel. According to the previous events, we expect the pair to move between 0.9523 and 0.9665. Also, it should be noted major resistance is seen at 0.9665, while immediate resistance is found at 0.9590. Then, we may anticipate potential testing of 0.9665 to take place soon. Moreover, if the pair succeeds in passing through the level of 0.9665, the market will indicate a bullish opportunity above the level of 0.9665. A breakout of that target will move the pair further upwards to 0.9746. Buy orders are recommended above the area of 0.9523 with the first target at the level of 1.9590 and continue towards the levels of 0.9665 and 0.9746. However, if the USD/CHF pair fails to break out through the resistance level of 1.9590; the market will decline further to the level of 0.9453.
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Technical analysis of NZD/USD for July 21, 2017

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Overview:

  • On the one-hour chart, the USD/CHF pair bullish trend from the support levels of 0.7333 and 0.7282. Currently, the price is in a bullish channel. This is confirmed by the RSI indicator signaling that we are still in a bullish trending market. As the price is still above the moving average (100), immediate support is seen at 0.7333, which coincides with a golden ratio (61.8% of Fibonacci retracement levels). Consequently, the first support is set at the level of 0.7333. So, the market is likely to show signs of a bullish trend around the spot of 0.7333. In other words, buy orders are recommended above the golden ratio (0.7333) with the first target at the level of 0.7414. Furthermore, if the trend is able to break out through the first resistance level of 0.7414. We should see the pair climbing towards the double top (0.7414) to test it. If the trend breaks the support at 0.7414 (first resistance) the pair will move upwards continuing the development of the bullish trend to the level 0.7466 in order to test the daily resistance 2. It would also be wise to consider where to place a stop loss; this should be set below the second support of 0.7282.
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Daily analysis of USDX for July 21, 2017

USDX plummeted to test the support zone of 94.16 following Trump's headlines that still are the main drivers for the index. Broad based USD weakness could increase if we notice a breakout below the 94.16 level, which should open the doors for a testing of the support level of 93.29. MACD indicator remains in the negative territory, favoring for more declines.

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H1 chart's resistance levels: 94.85 / 95.57

H1 chart's support levels: 94.16 / 93.29

Trading recommendations for today: Based on the H1 chart, place sell (short) orders only if the USD Index breaks with a bearish candlestick; the support level is at 94.16, take profit is at 93.29 and stop loss is at 95.02.

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Daily analysis of GBP/USD for July 21, 2017

GBP/USD was under pressure during Thursday's session and it seems the pair will look for a consolidation below the 200 SMA. However, the focus is still bullish, as we haven't seen yet a strong breakout to the downside and the idea remains in a target placed around 1.3037, at which a breakout should expose the 1.3106 level.

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H1 chart's resistance levels: 1.3037 / 1.3106

H1 chart's support levels: 1.2968 / 1.2882

Trading recommendations for today: Based on the H1 chart, buy (long) orders only if the GBP/USD pair breaks a bullish candlestick; the resistance level is at 1.3037, take profit is at 1.3106 and stop loss is at 1.2968.

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Daily analysis of GBP/JPY for July 20, 2017

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Overview

The GBP/JPY pair touched the 145.00 barrier yesterday and is rebounding now to show some bullish bias now, while the negative pressure is still valid as long as the price is stable below 147.65. This move is supported by the negative signal provided by stochastic, waiting to visit 144.00 followed by 142.65 levels that represent our main targets. Note that breaching 147.65 will turn the short-term trend to rise and head towards 150.96 as the first main target. The expected trading range for today is between 147.00 and 144.00

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Daily analysis of USD/JPY for July 20, 2017

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Overview

The USD/JPY pair touched 111.65 level again and found solid support there. The pair is expected to break this level to confirm a further correctional bearish wave on the short-term basis to head towards 110.98 level that represents the next correctional level. The EMA50 keeps pushing negatively on the price, to support the continuation of our bearish overview in the upcoming period. Please bear in mind that breaching 112.32 will stop the expected decline and lead the price to regain the main bullish trend again. The expected trading range for today is between 111.00 support and 112.30 resistance.

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Technical analysis of USD/JPY for July 20, 2017

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Our downside target which we predicted in our previous targets has been hit. Although the pair posted a rebound from 111.50 (the low of July 19), it is still trading below the declining 50-period moving average, which plays a resistance role. The relative strength index is mixed with a bearish bias. The upward potential is likely to be limited by the resistance at 112.40.

Hence, as long as this key level is not surpassed, look for a further decline to 111.20 and even to 110.95 in extension.

Alternatively, if the price moves in the opposite direction than predicted, a long position is recommended above 112.40 with a target at 112.85.

Chart Explanation: The black line shows the pivot point. The current price above the pivot point indicates a bullish position while the price below the pivot point is a sign for a short position. The red lines show the support levels and the green line indicates the resistance level. These levels can be used to enter and exit trades.

Strategy: SELL, Stop Loss: 112.55, Take Profit: 111.50

Resistance levels: 112.85, 113.15, and 113.50 Support Levels: 111.20, 110.95, 110.50

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Daily analysis of Gold for July 20, 2017

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Overview

Gold price has settled around 1,240.00 level, and the price might be forced to show more sideways fluctuation until stochastic manages to get rid of its negativity and gain enough positive momentum to continue the bullish trend. The bullish scenario is still valid and active as long as the price is holding above 1,229.32. The EMA50 is still providing the positive support to the price to reinforce the chances of the bullish scenario. Let me remind you that our next target is located at 1,254.56. If breached, it represents the key to rally towards the previously recorded top at 1,295.37 on the near-term basis. The expected trading range for today is between 1,229.32 support and 1,254.56 resistance.

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