Daily analysis of USDX for March 31, 2016

The USDX is still showing weakness. It has been performing some declines during today's session and now we can see that a support was found around the 94.40 level. If a breakout happens below this level, then we can expect another push lower towards the 93.95 level. However, a rebound can happen until the resistance zone of 94.85 level.

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H1 chart's resistance levels: 94.85 / 95.12

H1 chart's support levels: 94.40 / 93.95

Trading recommendations for today: Based on the H1 chart, place sell (short) orders only if the USD Index breaks with a bearish candlestick; the support level is at 94.40, take profit is at 93.95, and stop loss is at 94.85.

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Daily analysis of GBP/USD for March 31, 2016

There are no major changes in the overall outlook for the Cable, as it has been trading below the important high around the 1.4423 level. However, a pullback towards the support zone of 1.4317 is expected, where we can see a reaction higher to resume the bullish bias in a short-term basis.The MACD indicator is still at the neutral territory.

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H1 chart's resistance levels: 1.4397 / 1.4423

H1 chart's support levels: 1.4317 / 1.4267

Trading recommendations for today: Based on the H1 chart, place buy (long) orders only if the GBP/USD pair breaks a bullish candlestick; the resistance level is at 1.4397, take profit is at 1.4423 and stop loss is at 1.4372.

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EUR/NZD analysis for March 31, 2016

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Recently, EUR/NZD has been moving upwards. The price tested the level of 1.6449. Anyway, EUR/NZD is in downtrend and I found a breakout of bearish flag formation, which is a sign that we may see further bearish continuation. According to the 4H time frame, I found 3 bars in a row with a very weak close (weakness appeared). Watch for potential selling opportunities on the rallies. First take profit level is set at the price of 1.6265 (swing low).

Fibonacci Pivot Points:

Resistance levels:

R1: 1.6475

R2: 1.6553

R3: 1.6630

Support levels:

S1: 1.6290

S2: 1.6230

S3: 1.6140

Trading recommendation for today: There is strong downward pressure according to intraday time frames. Watch for selling opportunities on the rallies.

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Analysis of gold for March 31, 2016

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Since our last analysis, gold has been trading sideways at $1,233.00. A breakout of the $1,245.50 level is needed for continuation of upward movement. On the 30M time frame chart, I found selling climax in the background and successful testing of supply, which is the sign that professionals are interested in higher price. Watch for a successful breakout of $1,245.50 and then try to buy on the dips with the first target near the level of $1,259.00.

Daily Fibonacci pivot points:

Resistance levels:

R1: 1,240.50

R2: 1,245.60

R3: 1,253.90

Support levels:

S1: 1,224.15

S2: 1,218.30

S3: 1,210.00

Trading recommendations for today: Watch for buying opportunities on the dips. Selling looks very risky.

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NZD/USD intraday technical levels and trading recommendations for March 31, 2016

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On January 28, the depicted support at 0.6400 acted as a prominent key level offering a valid buy entry. A bullish breakout above 0.6550 was executed a few weeks ago.

Bullish persistence above 0.6550 (depicted recent support) was needed to keep the price moving towards higher bullish targets.

The price zone of 0.6750-0.6840 constituted a significant resistance zone where signs of a bearish rejection were seen during the previous few weeks (triple-top reversal pattern).

On February 9, the NZD/USD pair failed to consolidate below the depicted support level of 0.6550.

Moreover, an obvious bullish recovery was expressed around the depicted temporary support level. Hence, the recent bullish swing towards 0.6750 and 0.6860 was initiated.

Yesterday, an obvious bullish breakout above 0.6860 was executed. Hence, the price level of 0.6860 now constitutes a recent support level.

Bullish persistence above 0.6860 is mandatory to allow further bullish advancement towards 0.7070 and 0.7170 where a prominent consolidation range was previously established in June 2015.

On the other hand, conservative traders can wait for a bearish pullback towards 0.6860 for a valid entry.

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Global macro overview for 31/03/2016

Global macro overview for 31/03/2016:

The German inflation data unexpectedly turned positive in March. It might be a first sign that domestic demand as well as the ECB massive stimulus may be starting to boost price gains. On an annual basis, the German CPI rose 0.3%, exceeding forecast for a 0.1% gain and following zero growth in February. The inflation might start to pick up at last and according to the ECB projections from March inflation in the region would accelerate to 1.3% in 2017 and 1.6 % in 2018. In conclusion, the extended period of the QE program and recent increase of the asset purchase facility by the ECB might finally be working towards the projected inflation levels.

Let's now take a look at the technical picture of the German index DAX30 (ETF) in the daily time frame. We can see the index is trading below the long-term trend line and below the 100 and 200 daily moving average. Moreover, the rising wedge formation has just hit the technical resistance at the level of 10124. This level looks like the line in sand for bears now, because any rally higher would lead to the test of the golden trend line. So, if bears want to take back the control over this market again, now is a good time and price level to do it.

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Global macro overview for 31/03/2016

Global macro overview for 31/03/2016:

The US ADP Non-Farm Employment Change data was released yesterday. The data turned out to be better than market expectations. The March job gain of 200,000 (against 195,000 expected, 205,000 prior) is consistent with the average monthly job growth in the previous four years. The services sector was the biggest contributor to the employment gain, creating 191,000 jobs. In conclusion, the increasing employment levels allow US households to spend more money, thereby boosting economic activity and protecting the world's biggest economy against external headwinds.

Let's take a look at the EUR/USD technical picture in the 4H time frame. Bulls are clearly in control over this market as the price is making higher highs and higher lows. Currently, bulls are under resistance at the level of 1.1376. If this level is violated, next target will be at the level of 1.1428.

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Technical analysis of NZD/USD for March 31, 2016

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Overview:

  • The NZD/USD pair faced resistance at the level of 0.7000, while minor resistance is seen at 0.6964. Support is found at the levels of 0.6899 and 0.6847. Pivot point has already been set at the level of 0.6899. Equally important, the NZD/USD pair is still moving around the key level at 0.6899, which represents a daily pivot in the H4 time frame at the moment. Yesterday, the NZD/USD pair continued moving upwards from the level of 0.6847. The pair rose to the top around 0.6920 from the level of 0.6847 (coincides with the ratio of the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement). In consequence, the NZD/USD pair broke resistance, which turned into strong support at the level of 0.6847. The level of 0.6847 is expected to act as the major support today. We expect the NZD/USD pair to continue moving in the bullish trend towards the target level of 0.6964 so as to test the yesterday's double top. If the trend breaks the resistance level of 0.6964, the pair is likely to move upwards continuing the bullish trend development to the level of 0.7000.
  • On the downtrend: If the pair fails to pass through the level of 0.6964, the market will indicate a bearish opportunity below the level of 0.6964. So, the market will decline further to 0.6847 and 0.6755 to return to the daily support. Moreover, a breakout of that target will move the pair further downwards to 0.6690.
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Technical analysis of USD/CHF for March 31, 2016

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Overview:

  • The USD/CHF pair didn't make any significant movements yesterday. There are no changes in our technical outlook. The bias remains bearish in the nearest term. It will test 0.9592 or lower. Immediate support is seen around 0.9592 that coincides with the double bottom. A clear break below that area could lead price to the neutral zone in the nearest term. Price will test 0.9592, because, in general, we remain bearish today. Yesterday, the market moved from its bottom at 0.9592 and continued to rise towards the top of 0.9670. Today, on the four-hour chart, the current rise will remain within a framework of the correction. However, if the pair fails to pass through the level of 0.9670 (major resistance), the market will indicate a bearish opportunity below the strong resistance level of 0.9670. Since there is nothing new in this market, it is not bullish yet. Sell deals are recommended below the level of 0.9670 with the first target at 0.9592 so as to test the double bottom. If the trend breaks the double bottom level of 0.9592, the pair is likely to move downwards continuing the development of a bearish trend to the level of 0.9515 in order to test the daily support.
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Technical analysis of USD/CAD for March 31, 2016

General overview for 31/03/2016:

The main impulsive count has been invalidated after 1.2923 was violated. Currently, the whole structure is still corrective in the higher time frames and the bullish divergence between the price and the momentum oscillator supports the bullish outlook. The market should terminate the corrective cycle soon and then rebound upwards.

Support/Resistance:

1.3495 - WR2

1.3416 - WR1

1.3217 - Weekly Pivot

1.3140 - WS1

1.3117 - Intraday Resistance

1.2944 - WS2

1.2909 - Intraday Support

Trading recommendations:

The buy orders are now closed as the trailing stop loss level has been reached. For now, traders should refrain from trading and wait for another setup.

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Technical analysis of EUR/JPY for March 31, 2016

General overview for 31/03/2016:

The impulsive wave progression to the upside is about to be terminated. There is one more wave to the upside and then a corrective structure should unfold. If the market breaks below the intraday support at the level of 126.95, bears will be in control over this market.

Support/Resistance:

127.81 - Intraday Resistance

127.42 - WR1

127.09 - 127.26 - Supply Zone

126.95 - Intraday Support

126.04 - Weekly Pivot

125.54 - WS1

124.67 - Local Low

124.18 - WS2

123.69 - WS3

123.07 - Green Impulsive Cycle Invalidation Level

Trading recommendations:

Day traders should put trailing stop loss orders on long positions from the 123.00 area that is still in play and wait for the market's reaction at the supply zone. Any breakout higher might be another impulsive wave development towards the level of 128.18.

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Technical analysis of AUD/CHF for March 31, 2016

After AUD/CHF found the bottom around 0.6800, the price started to move higher and broke above the descending Fib channel. It seems that the price had a false breakout above the 161.8% trend line as afterwards the price rejected this level for 4 consecutive times.

The Fibonacci applied to the channel breakout point shows that currently, the price remains right at the resistance R1 (0.7415) that is 23.6% level and at the same time it has rejected the Fib trend line.

Overall, it is likely that the price will start correcting down towards one of the support levels. Consider selling AUD/CHF while the price is near R1, targeting either S1 (0.7285), S2 0.7185) or S3 (0.7085) as a final target. The stop loss should be well above the R1.

Support: 0.7285, 0.7185, 0.7085

Resistance: 0.7415

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USD/CAD intraday technical levels and trading recommendations for March 31, 2016

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A bullish breakout above the previous consolidation zone between 1.2400 and 1.2800 was performed on July 15 (shown on the weekly chart).

A significant bearish rejection was observed around 1.3450. Hence, another consolidation range was established from 1.3450 down to 1.2800.

On December 7, a bullish breakout above 1.3450 (the upper limit of the recent consolidation range) enhanced the bullish side of the market. Hence, a bullish visit to the resistance level of 1.4120 (Fibonacci Expansion 100%) was executed.

Bullish persistence above 1.4150 enhanced the bullish side of the market towards 1.4650 (141.4% Fibonacci expansion) where an evident bearish rejection was expected (bearish engulfing weekly candlestick).

The level of 1.4120 (Fibonacci Expansion 100%) stood as a significant key level to be watched for further price reactions.

Although the price zone of 1.3170-1.3250 was expected to offer bullish support for the USD/CAD pair, temporary bearish breakdown of the same price zone is being manifested on the daily chart.

This price zone corresponded to the depicted weekly uptrend line and the upper limit of the previous consolidation range (prominent breakout level).

Previously, the price level of 1.2975 (61.8% Fibonacci level) stood as a prominent support level which provided significant bullish rejection and a valid buy entry.

On the other hand, the price level of 1.3300 constituted a significant resistance level as it corresponded to the 50% Fibonacci level and the backside of the broken weekly uptrend where a valid sell entry was suggested on March 24.

Conservative traders should wait for a bearish breakdown below 1.2975 (61.8% Fibonacci level) to SELL the USD/CAD pair. Initial T/P levels should be located at 1.2770 and 1.2550.

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Intraday technical levels and trading recommendations for GBP/USD for March 31, 2016

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On January 21, after the GBP/USD pair moved below 1.4340, evident signs of a bullish recovery were expressed around 1.4075. Hence, previous weekly candlesticks closed above 1.4340 again.

Bullish persistence above 1.4488 was mandatory to maintain enough bullish strength in the market. The first bullish target was seen at 1.4615 where the most recent bearish swing was initiated.

As previous weekly candlesticks maintained their bearish persistence below the depicted demand zone (below 1.4340), the next demand level located at 1.3845 (historical bottom that goes back to March 2009) provided significant bullish rejection on February 26.

As expected, an evident bullish recovery and a bullish engulfing weekly candlestick were expressed around 1.3850 (prominent weekly demand level). That is why, a valid buy entry was suggested near the same level.

Recently, the price zone of 1.4340-1.4488 constituted a significant supply zone to offer evident bearish rejection.

Temporary bearish rejection was manifested via the previous weekly candlestick until March 16 when the price level of 1.4050 managed to push the pair again to the upside (note the lower tail of the previous weekly candlestick).

Note that bullish persistence above the price level of 1.4488 will allow a quick bullish movement to occur towards 1.4620.

Otherwise, a quick bearish movement towards the price levels of 1.4060 and 1.3960 should be expected.

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A recent lower high was achieved around the level of 1.4530. This applied extensive bearish pressure against the price level of 1.4340.

Hence, an extensive bearish breakout below 1.4340 was expressed on the daily chart. The GBP/USD pair looked oversold few weeks ago.

That is why, signs of bullish recovery and a profitable long entry were expected around 1.3850. A recent bullish swing was expressed towards the price levels around 1.4400.

On March 14, a recent bearish movement was initiated around 1.4350 (61.8% Fibonacci level). The nearest bearish target was located around 1.4050 where the current bullish swing was initiated.

Last week, the price level of 1.4488 was being challenged. It corresponded to the 79.6% Fibonacci level and the backside of the depicted uptrend line. That's where the recent bearish swing was initiated towards 1.4050.

Conservative traders were advised to look for bullish price action around the demand level of 1.4050. As anticipated, T/P levels were already reached at 1.4250 and 1.4350.

Please note that the price zone of 1.4350-1.4490 constitutes a significant supply zone to be watched for evident bearish rejection and a valid SELL entry. Estimated bearish targets are located at 1.4060 and 1.3960.

On the other hand, if bullish persistence above 1.4490 is achieved, a quick bullish movement towards 1.4650 should be expected.

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Intraday technical levels and trading recommendations for EUR/USD for March 31, 2016

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In January 2015, the EUR/USD pair moved below the major demand levels near 1.2100 and 1.2000 where historical bottoms had been previously set in July 2012 and June 2010. Hence, a long-term bearish target is projected towards 0.9450.

In March 2015, EUR/USD bears challenged the monthly demand level of 1.0570, which had been previously reached in August 1997.

Later in April 2015, a strong bullish recovery was observed around the mentioned demand level.

April's monthly candlestick came as a bullish engulfing one. However, the next monthly candlesticks (September, October, and November) reflected a strong bearish rejection in the area around 1.1400.

December's candlestick came as a bullish engulfing one, allowing the current bullish pullback to take place towards 1.1370.

In February, the price zone of 1.1350-1.1400 acted as a significant supply zone during the previous bullish pullback. Hence, another bearish rejection should be expected around the current price zone during the ongoing bullish swing.

On the other hand, the level of 0.9450 will remain a long-term bearish target in case the current monthly candlestick closes below the depicted monthly demand level of 1.0570.

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In November 2015, daily persistence below the level of 1.0800 (prominent key level) ensured enough bearish momentum towards 1.0550 (monthly demand level) where the most recent bullish swing was initiated.

During the last few weeks, a consolidation range between 1.1000 and 1.0800 was established on the daily chart. On February 3, a bullish breakout was executed above this consolidation range.

Consequently, a quick bullish movement started towards the zone of 1.1350-1.1400 where previous daily bottoms and the backside of the broken uptrend were depicted on the daily chart.

On February 12, a strong bearish engulfing daily candlestick was expressed near the mentioned supply zone. Hence, a quick bearish decline towards 1.1000 was executed.

A temporary bearish breakdown below 1.1000 (upper limit of the broken range) was seen on the daily chart. A quick bearish decline was expected towards 1.0820 where the most recent bullish swing was initiated.

Recently, bullish fixation above 1.1000 was mandatory to allow bullish movement to continue. Bullish targets were expected around 1.1320 and 1.1400 (recently visited).

Similar to what happened on February 12, the supply zone of 1.1320-1.1400 stands as a significant resistance zone for the EUR/USD pair to offer bearish rejection and a valid sell entry.

Trading Recommendation:

A valid sell entry can be offered around the supply zone of 1.1320 - 1.1400. T/P levels should be placed at 1.1200 and 1.1070. S/L should be placed above 1.1460.

Conservative traders can wait for a pullback towards 1.1000 to buy the EUR/USD pair. S/L should be placed below 1.0940.

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Technical analysis of EUR/JPY for March 31, 2016

Technical outlook and chart setups:

The EUR/JPY pair is trading higher at 127.55 levels. As depicted on the daily chart view, the Fibonacci 0.618 resistance is seen at 128.30 levels going forward. Also a trend line resistance is seen close to those levels, raising probability for a bearish reaction. The pair is testing past support that was turned into resistance zone at 127.55 levels as well, and a bearish bounce could resume its larger downtrend. Hence it is recommended to watch out for a reversal between 127.50 and 128.40 levels to go short again. Immediate resistance is seen around 128.20/30 levels, while support is seen through 125.00 levels respectively. Only a break above the resistance trend line and subsequently above 132.20 levels would confirm a change in trend.

Trading recommendations:

Remain flat for now, look to sell around 128.30/40 levels.

Good luck!

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Technical analysis of GBP/CHF for March 31, 2016

Technical outlook and chart setups:

The GBP/CHF pair is showing mixed signals for now and it is trading lower at 1.3830 levels. Please note that the pair has stalled and reversed from the Fibonacci 0.618 resistance of the drop between 1.4050 and 1.3720 levels. The structure indicates that bulls need to push above 1.4050 levels at least to confirm a bullish reversal going forward. Otherwise, bears would remain in control till the pair trades below 1.4050 levels and continue pushing lower below 1.3700 respectively. Hence it is recommended to exit long positions and remain short with risk at 1.4050 levels. Immediate resistance is at 1.4050 levels, while support is seen at 1.3700 respectively. On the flip side though, a push above 1.4050 and subsequently 1.4275 levels would confirm a double bottom.

Trading recommendations:

Exit long positions and remain short with stop at 1.4050 levels.

Good luck!

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Technical analysis of USDX for March 31, 2016

The Dollar index continued its slide towards the previous low of 94.60 and for now it holds above it. As I said yesterday, the price was more likely to move to new lows but we should be looking closely for the possibility of a double bottom formation.

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Red line - resistance

Blue area - support

The Dollar index remains in a short-term bearish trend. The price has stopped the decline right at the blue support area of the previous low. A double bottom formation could be in the process here but it is still too early to tell. A bullish reversal signal will come once the price breaks above the red trend line resistance.

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Red line - resistance trend line

On the daily chart, the trend remains bearish but with some bullish divergence signals by the stochastic oscillator. The trend is still bearish but there are signs of a possible bounce at least towards 95.60-95.80. The price remains below the daily Kumo (cloud), so a big reversal signal will be the first to break above the cloud. It is still too early to see something like this. New lows are more probable towards 94-93.70.

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Technical analysis of Gold for March 31, 2016

Gold remains inside the short-term bearish channel and as we expected from our previous analysis, the price has made a lower high around the $1,235-40 area and is pulling back down. The price remains in a corrective phase, so eventually it is expected to reach below $1,190.

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Blue lines - bearish channel

Gold remains below the Kumo (cloud) on the 4 hour chart and with a lower high and reversal we remain in a bearish trend. Support is at $1,208 and resistance at $1,250. A break above $1,250 could even give us a new higher high towards $1,300, but this scenario has less chances.

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The weekly chart is bearish for the next two to three weeks. Why? The Stochastic oscillator is turning lower below 80 from overbought levels and this is a trend reversal sign. A significant top has already been made and the price has already started a reversal. Eventually I expect prices to reach $1,150-$1,100 to complete the pullback and resume the uptrend.The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Technical analysis of USD/JPY for March 31, 2016

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USD/JPY is expected to trade in a lower range as the pair is under pressure.Overnight, US stocks rallied further as they continued to enjoy momentum pumped by Federal Reserve Chairwoman Janet Yellen's dovish comments. Major insurance shares were up on a favorable court ruling concerning MetLife. The Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 0.5% to 17716, the S&P 500 rose 0.4% to 2063, and the Nasdaq Composite was up 0.5% to 4869.

Nymex crude oil edged up 0.1% to $38.32 a barrel, gold dropped 1.4% to $1224 an ounce, while the benchmark 10-year Treasury yield settled at 1.830%, up from 1.814% in the previous session.

Meanwhile, the US dollar weakened further against most major currencies, with the Wall Street Journal Dollar Index falling another 0.4% to 86.73. EUR/USD rose 0.4% to 1.1336, USD/JPY declined 0.2% to 112.42, USD/CAD lost 0.8% to 1.2964, and AUD/USD increased 0.6% to 0.7670. NZD/USD surged 1.1% to a 9-month-high closing of 0.6918. At the same time, GBP/USD was broadly flat at 1.4376 (day-high at 1.4458).

The pair has been posting choppy price action below the key resistance at 112.85. Overnight, it touched 111.98 on the downside. Currently it is trading around the over-lapping 20-period (30-minute chart) and 50-period moving averages (at around 112.30). As long as 112.85 holds as the key resistance, the pair could return to the first downside target at 112.05 (around yesterday's low).

Trading Recommendation:

The pair is trading below its pivot point. It is likely to trade in a lower range as long as it remains below the pivot point. Short positions are recommended with the first target at 112.05. A break of this target will move the pair further downwards to 111.60. The pivot point stands at 112.85. In case the price moves in the opposite direction and bounces back from the support level, it will move above its pivot point. It is likely to move further to the upside. According to that scenario, long positions are recommended with the first target at 113.20 and the second target at 113.45.

Resistance levels: 113.20, 113.45, 113.80

Support levels: 112.05, 111.60, 111.20

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Technical analysis of USD/CHF for March 31, 2016

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USD/CHF is expected to trade in a lower range as key resistance is at 0.9715. Despite the recent technical rebound, the pair remains under pressure below its nearest resistance at 0.9715. The relative strength index lacks upward momentum. Besides, the 50-period moving average is still badly directed, which should call for a new decline. To conclude, as long as 0.9715 is resistance, a decline to 0.9625 and 0.9590 (Mar. 30 bottom) is likely.

Trading Recommendations:

The pair is trading below its pivot point. It is likely to trade in a lower range as long as it remains below the pivot point. Short positions are recommended with the first target at 0.9625. A break of this target will move the pair further downwards to 0.960. The pivot point stands at 0.9715. In case the price moves in the opposite direction and bounces back from the support level, it will move above its pivot point. It is likely to move further to the upside. According to that scenario, long positions are recommended with the first target at 0.9760 and the second target at 0.9785.

Resistance levels: 0.9760, 0.9785, 0.9835

Support levels: 0.9625, 0.9590 , 0.9545

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Technical analysis of NZD/USD for March 31, 2016

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NZD/USD is expected to trade in a higher range, with a bullish bias above 0.6845. The pair is currently consolidating, but still holds above its key support area around 0.6840, representing both the current 50-period moving average and an intraday horizontal support. As long as this threshold is not broken, the pair is likely to post a new rebound after a pause. Furthermore, the process of higher highs and lows remains intact, which should confirm a bullish outlook. To sum up, above 0.6845, even though a continuation of the consolidation cannot be ruled out, its extent should be limited before a new rise to 0.6965 and 0.7030 in extension.

Trading recommendations:

The pair is trading above its pivot point. It is likely to trade in a wider range as long as it remains above its pivot point. Therefore, long positions are recommended with the first target at 0.6965 and the second one at 0.7030. In the alternative scenario, short positions are recommended with the first target at 0.6780 if the price moves below its pivot points. A break of this target is likely to push the pair further downwards, and one may expect the second target at 0.6725. The pivot point is at 0.6845.

Resistance levels: 0.6965, 0.7030, 0.7065

Support levels: 0.6780, 0.6725, 0.6695

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Technical analysis of GBP/JPY for March 31, 2016

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GBP/JPY is expected to trade in a lower range as the pair is under pressure. The pair stays on the downside and remains under pressure below its key resistance at 161.85. The descending 50-period moving average maintains a bearish bias. Meanwhile the relative strength index lacks upward momentum. The first target to the downside is therefore set at 160. A break below this level would open the way to further weakness toward 159.40.

Trading Recommendations:

The pair is trading above its pivot point. It is likely to trade in a wider range as long as it remains above its pivot point. Therefore, long positions are recommended with the first target at 162.85 and the second one at 163.40. In the alternative scenario, short positions are recommended with the first target at 160 if the price moves below its pivot points. A break of this target is likely to push the pair further downwards, and one may expect the second target at 159.40. The pivot point is at 160.70.

Resistance levels: 162.50, 162.85, 163.40

Support levels: 160, 159.40, 158.40

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Elliott wave analysis of EUR/NZD for March 31 - 2016

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Wave summary:

We have likely seen a low at 1.6229 just above the 1.6210 target. To confirm that a low has been seen, we need a break above minor resistance at 1.6508 and, more importantly, a break above resistance at 1.6725 that will call for renewed upside pressure towards 1.7220 and 1.8551.

Hopefully, we will see upside acceleration this time around, then we will not set our expectations too high as we have been disappointed a couple of times now.

Trading recommendation:

We bought EUR at 1.6250 and will place our stop at a break-even point. If you are not long in EUR yet, then buy near 1.6292 or upon a break above 1.6508.

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Elliott wave analysis of EUR/JPY for March 31 - 2016

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Wave summary:

We continue to look for more corrective upside pressure close to 128.91 before the final decline to below 122.06 is ready to take over for the final decline closer to 117.37 to end the larger correction that has been unfolding since the 149.55 high.

In the short term, we expect minor support near 126.76 will protect the downside for the final rally higher towards 128.91 to terminate red wave iv of C and set the stage for the final impulsive decline.

Trading recommendation:

We are long in EUR from 127.35 and we will move our stop slightly higher to 125.85.

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Technical analysis of EUR/USD for March 31, 2016

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When the European market opens, some economic news will be released such as the Italian Prelim CPI m/m, Core CPI Flash Estimate y/y, CPI Flash Estimate y/y, German Unemployment Change, Spanish Flash CPI y/y, French Prelim CPI m/m, French Consumer Spending m/m, and German Retail Sales m/m. The US will release economic data too such as Natural Gas Storage, the Chicago PMI, Unemployment Claims, and Challenger Job Cuts y/y. So amid the reports, EUR/USD will move with low to medium volatility during this day.

TODAY'S TECHNICAL LEVELS:

Breakout BUY Level: 1.1387.

Strong Resistance: 1.1380.

Original Resistance: 1.1369.

Inner Sell Area: 1.1358.

Target Inner Area: 1.1331.

Inner Buy Area: 1.1304.

Original Support: 1.1293.

Strong Support: 1.1282.

Breakout SELL Level: 1.1275.

Disclaimer: Trading Forex (foreign exchange) on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.

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Technical analysis of USD/JPY for March 31, 2016

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In Asia, Japan will release the Housing Starts y/y and the US will release some economic data such as Natural Gas Storage, the Chicago PMI, Unemployment Claims, and Challenger Job Cuts y/y. So there is a probability the USD/JPY pair will move with low to medium volatility during this day.

TODAY'S TECHNICAL LEVELS:

Resistance. 3: 113.07.

Resistance. 2: 112.85.

Resistance. 1: 112.63.

Support. 1: 112.36.

Support. 2: 112.13.

Support. 3: 111.91.

Disclaimer: Trading Forex (foreign exchange) on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Daily analysis of major pairs for March 31, 2016

EUR/USD: The EUR/USD pair broke further upwards on Wednesday, testing the resistance line at 1.1350. There is a Bullish Confirmation Pattern on the 4-hour chart. The EMA 11 is above the EMA 56, while the Williams' % Range period 20 is in the overbought region. While the probabilities of short-term dips cannot be ruled out, it is assumed that further northward movement is possible. Some fundamental figures are expected today and they could have an impact on the markets.

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USD/CHF: This pair was able to test the support level at 0.9600 yesterday, owing to the attacks the pair received from a strong EUR/USD and another strong CHF. The EMA 11 is below the EMA 56, while the Williams' % Range period 20 is not too far from the oversold region. While the probabilities of short-term rallies cannot be ruled out, it is assumed that the aforementioned support level would be breached to the downside.

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GBP/USD: The Cable has continued to journey upwards. The price has gone upward by 330 pips this week, testing the distribution territory at 1.4450. The bulls would be able to push the price above that distribution territory, but not without giving a fight against the bears. The next targets are the distribution territories at 1.4500 and 1.4550.

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USD/JPY: There is a clear Bearish Confirmation Pattern on the USD/JPY 4-hour chart. The price nearly tested the demand level at 112.00, before the current shallow bounce in the market. That demand level could be broken to the downside as the price moves further south, targeting another demand level at 111.00.

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EUR/JPY: This cross pair has been able to maintain its bullish stance so far, though there is nothing significant in the movement. The price has tested the supply zone at 127.50 and is trying to breach that supply zone to the upside. In case the attempt proves to be successful, the bulls would target the supply zone at 128.50.

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Daily analysis of EUR/USD for March 30, 2016

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Overview

The EUR/USD pair trades steadily above the support base formed above the 1.1264 level, keeping the bullish trend scenario valid for the rest of the day. Current stochastic's negativity might lead to retesting of the mentioned level before the bullish bias resumes. We remind you that a break of the 1.1264 level will put the price under negative pressure that might push it to the 1.1120 level before any new attempt to rise.

The expected trading range for today is the between 1.1200 support and the 1.1420 resistance.

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Daily analysis of GOLD for March 30, 2016

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Overview

According to the attached H4 chart, we see that the gold price has been trading sideways in a tight range since morning. The price remains confined between the confirmation levels represented by the 1,227.40 support and the 1,241.50 resistance, where the price needs to breach one of them to detect its next trend clearly. Therefore, we keep our neutral attitude for now.

The expected trading range for today is between the 1,205.00 support and the 1,260.00 resistance.

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Daily analysis of Silver for March 30, 2016

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Overview

The silver price bounced clearly to the upside yesterday after an attempt to break the bullish channel's support seen in the image, thus keeping the bullish trend scenario valid for the upcoming period, which is conditioned by holding above 15.15 levels. The price is likely to test the 15.70 level as the next main station. It might lead to a new attempt to break the bullish channel's support. A breach of the 15.70 level will extend the silver price's gains to 16.35.

The expected trading range for today is between the 15.00 support and the 15.70 resistance.

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NZD/USD intraday technical levels and trading recommendations for March 30, 2016

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On January 28, the depicted support at 0.6400 acted as a prominent key level offering a valid buy entry. A bullish breakout above 0.6550 was executed a few weeks ago.

Bullish persistence above 0.6550 (depicted recent support) was needed to keep the price moving towards higher bullish targets.

The price zone of 0.6750-0.6840 constituted a significant resistance zone where signs of a bearish rejection were seen during the previous few weeks (triple-top reversal pattern).

On February 9, the NZD/USD pair failed to consolidate below the depicted support level of 0.6550.

Moreover, an obvious bullish recovery was expressed around the depicted temporary support level. Hence, the recent bullish swing towards 0.6750 and 0.6860 was initiated.

Today, obvious bullish breakout above 0.6860 is being executed.

Bullish persistence above 0.6860 is mandatory to allow further bullish advancement towards 0.7070 and 0.7170 where a prominent consolidation range was previously established in June 2015.

On the other hand, conservative traders can wait for a bearish pullback towards 0.6860 for a valid entry.

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Global macro overview for 30/03/2016

Global macro overview for 30/03/2016:

The Japanese Industrial Production data was released overnight. It turned out to be disappointing. According to the Ministry of Economy, industrial output plunged 6.2% in February from the previous month. The Japanese government expects that output will increase 3.9% this month and 5.3% in April. However, the largest automaker, Toyota Motor Corp, stopped production in the factories due to a problem with parts supplies stemming from an explosion at a steel maker Aichi Steel Corp. on January 8. In conclusion, even this random event suggests that industrial production is undermining economic growth in the first quarter. If Japan's GDP contracts again, that would be the sixth quarterly contraction and the second recession since Shinzo Abe returned as prime minister in December 2012.

Let's now take a look at the USD/JPY technical picture in the daily time frame. The market is still trading between two golden lines in the congestion zone. Neither bulls, nor bears are in control over the market right now. The next support is seen at the level of 110.06.

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USD/CAD intraday technical levels and trading recommendations for March 30, 2016

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A bullish breakout above the previous consolidation zone between 1.2400 and 1.2800 was performed on July 15 (shown on the weekly chart).

A significant bearish rejection was observed around 1.3450. Hence, another consolidation range was established from 1.3450 down to 1.2800.

On December 7, a bullish breakout above 1.3450 (the upper limit of the recent consolidation range) enhanced the bullish side of the market. Hence, a bullish visit to the resistance level of 1.4120 (Fibonacci Expansion 100%) was executed.

Bullish persistence above 1.4150 enhanced the bullish side of the market towards 1.4650 (141.4% Fibonacci expansion) where an evident bearish rejection was expected (bearish engulfing weekly candlestick).

The level of 1.4120 (Fibonacci Expansion 100%) stood as a significant key level to be watched for further price reactions.

Although the price zone of 1.3170-1.3250 was expected to offer bullish support for the USD/CAD pair, temporary bearish breakdown of the same price zone is being manifested on the daily chart.

This price zone corresponded to the depicted weekly uptrend line and the upper limit of the previous consolidation range (prominent breakout level).

The price level of 1.2975 (61.8% Fibonacci level) stands as a prominent support level to be watched for significant bullish rejection and a valid buy entry. It is already running in profits.

As expected, the price level of 1.3300 constituted a significant resistance level as it corresponded to the 50% Fibonacci level and the backside of the broken weekly uptrend where a valid sell entry was suggested on March 24.

On the other hand, conservative traders should wait for a bearish breakdown below 1.2975 (61.8% Fibonacci level) to SELL the USD/CAD pair.

Initial T/P levels should be located at 1.2770 and 1.2550.

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Intraday technical levels and trading recommendations for GBP/USD for March 30, 2016

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On January 21, after the GBP/USD pair moved below 1.4340, evident signs of a bullish recovery were expressed around 1.4075. Hence, previous weekly candlesticks closed above 1.4340 again.

Bullish persistence above 1.4488 was mandatory to maintain enough bullish strength in the market. The first bullish target was seen at 1.4615 where the most recent bearish swing was initiated.

As previous weekly candlesticks maintained their bearish persistence below the depicted demand zone (below 1.4340), the next demand level located at 1.3845 (historical bottom that goes back to March 2009) provided significant bullish rejection on February 26.

As expected, an evident bullish recovery and a bullish engulfing weekly candlestick were expressed around 1.3850 (prominent weekly demand level). That is why, a valid buy entry was suggested near the same level.

Recently, the price zone of 1.4340-1.4488 constituted a significant supply zone to offer evident bearish rejection.

Temporary bearish rejection was manifested via the previous weekly candlestick until March 16 when the price level of 1.4050 managed to push the pair again to the upside (note the lower tail of the previous weekly candlestick).

Note that bullish persistence above the price level of 1.4488 will allow a quick bullish movement to occur towards 1.4620.

Otherwise, a quick bearish movement towards the price levels of 1.4060 and 1.3960 should be expected.

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A recent lower high was achieved around the level of 1.4530. This applied extensive bearish pressure against the price level of 1.4340.

Hence, an extensive bearish breakout below 1.4340 was expressed on the daily chart. GBP/USD pair looked oversold few weeks ago.

That is why, signs of bullish recovery and a profitable long entry were expected around 1.3850. A recent bullish swing was expressed towards the price levels around 1.4400.

On March 14, a recent bearish movement was initiated around 1.4350 (61.8% Fibonacci level). The nearest bearish target was located around 1.4050 where the current bullish swing was initiated.

Last week, the price level of 1.4488 was being challenged. It corresponded to 79.6% Fibonacci level and the backside of the depicted uptrend line. That's where the recent bearish swing was initiated towards 1.4050.

Conservative traders were advised to look for bullish price action around the demand level of 1.4050. As anticipated, T/P levels were already reached at 1.4250 and 1.4350.

Please note that the price zone of 1.4350-1.4490 constitutes a significant supply zone to be watched for evident bearish rejection and a valid SELL entry.

On the other hand, if bullish persistence above 1.4490 is achieved, a quick bullish movement towards 1.4650 should be expected.

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Intraday technical levels and trading recommendations for EUR/USD for March 30, 2016

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In January 2015, the EUR/USD pair moved below the major demand levels near 1.2100 and 1.2000 where historical bottoms had been previously set in July 2012 and June 2010. Hence, a long-term bearish target is projected towards 0.9450.

In March 2015, EUR/USD bears challenged the monthly demand level of 1.0570, which had been previously reached in August 1997.

Later in April 2015, a strong bullish recovery was observed around the mentioned demand level.

April's monthly candlestick came as a bullish engulfing one. However, the next monthly candlesticks (September, October, and November) reflected a strong bearish rejection in the area around 1.1400.

December's candlestick came as a bullish engulfing one, allowing the current bullish pullback to take place towards 1.1370.

In February, the price zone of 1.1350-1.1400 acted as a significant supply zone during the previous bullish pullback. Hence, another bearish rejection should be expected around the current price zone during the ongoing bullish swing.

On the other hand, the level of 0.9450 will remain a long-term bearish target in case the current monthly candlestick closes below the depicted monthly demand level of 1.0570.

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In November 2015, daily persistence below the level of 1.0800 (prominent key level) ensured enough bearish momentum towards 1.0550 (monthly demand level) where the most recent bullish swing was initiated.

During the last few weeks, a consolidation range between 1.1000 and 1.0800 was established on the daily chart. On February 3, a bullish breakout was executed above this consolidation range.

Consequently, a quick bullish movement started towards the zone of 1.1350-1.1400 where previous daily bottoms and the backside of the broken uptrend were depicted on the daily chart.

On February 12, a strong bearish engulfing daily candlestick was expressed near the mentioned supply zone. Hence, a quick bearish decline towards 1.1000 was executed.

A temporary bearish breakdown below 1.1000 (upper limit of the broken range) was seen on the daily chart. A quick bearish decline was expected towards 1.0820 where the most recent bullish swing was initiated.

Recently, bullish fixation above 1.1000 was mandatory to allow bullish movement to continue. Bullish targets were expected around 1.1320 and 1.1400 (recently visited).

Similar to what happened on February 12, the supply zone of 1.1320-1.1400 stands as a significant resistance zone for the EUR/USD pair to offer bearish rejection and a valid sell entry.

Trading Recommendation:

A valid sell entry can be offered around the supply zone of 1.1320 - 1.1400. T/P levels should be placed at 1.1200 and 1.1070. S/L should be placed above 1.1460.

Conservative traders can wait for a pullback towards 1.1000 to buy the EUR/USD pair. S/L should be placed below 1.0940.

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