Trading plan EURUSD 11/18/2019

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The calm opening of the week.

There is no big news on the calendar.

Main topics: In Britain, the Brexit issue is being decided in parliamentary elections on December 12.

In the US, the US-China trade agreement is hanging. However, the plot of the impeachment of Trump is actively developing.

The question of the EURUSD trend may be postponed until December 11-12, when the key meetings of the Fed and the ECB will be held.

For now, you need to follow the charts.

EURUSD: The fall was stopped at the end of the week.

We stand in the purchase of 1.1045.

Possible purchases from reductions to 1.1020.

In the case of a full reversal down, we sell from 1.0980.

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Technical analysis for the GBP/USD currency pair for the week from November 18 to 23

Trend analysis.

This week, the price will move down with the first target of 1.2767 – the lower fractal. If achieved, the next lower target is 1.2643 – 21 average EMA (black thin line).

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Fig. 1 (weekly chart).

Comprehensive analysis:

- Indicator analysis – down;

- Fibonacci levels – down;

- Volumes – down;

- Candlestick analysis – down;

- Trend analysis – down;

- Bollinger Bands – down;

- Monthly chart – down.

The conclusion of comprehensive analysis – a downward movement.

The overall result of calculating the candle of the GBP/USD currency pair according to the weekly chart: the price for weeks is more likely to have a downward trend with the presence of the first upper shadow of the weekly black candlestick (Monday – up) and the absence of the second lower shadow (Friday – down).

The first lower target of 1.2767 – the lower fractal. If achieved, the next lower target is 1.2643 – 21 average EMA (black thin line).

An unlikely scenario – from the level of 1.2910, work up with the target of 1.3011 – the upper fractal (red dashed line).

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Technical analysis for the EUR/USD currency pair for the week from November 18 to 23

Trend analysis.

This week, the price will move up with the first target of 1.1076 – resistance line (red bold line). Breaking through the top of this level or rebounding down from this level will be a strong start to determine the future trend of the market.

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Fig. 1 (weekly chart).

Comprehensive analysis:

- Indicator analysis – up;

- Fibonacci levels – up;

- Volumes – up;

- Candle analysis – neutral;

- Trend analysis – neutral;

- Bollinger Bands – down;

- Monthly chart – down.

The conclusion of comprehensive analysis – an upward movement.

The overall result of calculating the candle of the EUR/USD currency pair according to the weekly chart: the price of the week is likely to have an upward trend, with the absence of the first lower shadow of the weekly white candlestick (Monday – up) and the absence of the second upper shadow (Friday – up).

When breaking up from the resistance line of 1.1075 (red bold line) – the first upper target of 1.1082 is a pullback level of 50.0% (blue dotted line). In case of success (breaking) of the pullback level of 50%, the next upper target of 1.1106 is the pullback level of 61.8% (blue dotted line).

When testing the resistance line of 1.1075 (red bold line) – the first lower target of 1.1028 is a pullback level of 50.0% (red dotted line). If successful, the next lower target is a pullback level of 61.8% – 1.0993 (red dotted line).

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EURUSD: Despite all the assurances and the Fed report, the US economy is losing shape by the end of the year

Friday's data put pressure on the US dollar, as they indicated the presence of problems in the economy, especially those related to the industry. The inflation report in the eurozone in the morning did not help buyers of risky assets much, however, the bulls managed to avoid the sale of the euro, which kept the upward trend.

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According to the report, the consumer price index (CPI) of the eurozone in October this year increased by only 0.1%, and 0.7% compared to the same period in 2018, which is certainly better than the reduction that was observed earlier. However, economists had forecast inflation to rise by 0.2% and 0.7% respectively. The core consumer price index, which does not take into account volatile categories, showed growth of 0.1% in October this year, as well as the eurozone consumer price index excluding tobacco products. The report on the growth of the positive balance of foreign trade of the eurozone in September to 18.7 billion euros against 12.6 billion euros in September 2018 was ignored by traders.

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All the focus was shifted to the statistics on the US economy, as well as the Fed's report on financial stability.

Already after the release of data that the Americans increased their purchases in October of this year, it became clear that traders completely ignored the dollar growth at the end of the week. Even positive data did not lead to the strengthening of the US dollar against risky assets. Thus, the US Department of Commerce said retail sales rose by 0.3% in October compared with the previous month, while economists expected sales to grow by 0.2%. Let me remind you that back in September, a decrease of this indicator by 0.3% was noted.

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Data on industrial production disappointed traders, which indicates the persistence of rather high problems in the sector. According to a report by the US Federal Reserve, industrial production in the United States declined in October this year. At the same time, a decrease is observed for the third time in the last four months. The main problems due to which there is a decrease in the indicator lie in the slowdown in global economic growth and continuing trade tension.

Thus, industrial production in the United States in October 2019 fell by 0.8% compared to the previous month, while economists expected it to fall by only 0.5%. Problems remain in the manufacturing industry, where production fell by 0.6%. Excluding automobiles, manufacturing in the US manufacturing industry fell by 0.1% in October.

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A slight decline in oil harmed import prices. A report from the Department of Labor indicated that US import prices in October 2019 fell by 0.5% compared to September, while economists had expected prices to decline by 0.2%. The decrease was due to a fall in prices of imported oil in the US in October by 3.7% compared with the previous month. Compared to October 2018, import prices fell by 3%.

As noted above, the report on the financial stability of the Federal Reserve System affected the US dollar, as it was clear from it that the regulator plans to keep interest rates low for quite a long time.

The report indicates that higher asset prices and high debt of companies remain the main risks for the economy, and the deterioration of the liquidity situation in some markets may lead to new unexpected events. Low-interest rates are expected to remain so for a long period. However, despite this, the report pointed to a sustainable financial sector and moderate risks to the economy.

Inventory data for US companies, which remained unchanged in September from the previous month, were ignored by the market, even though 0.1% growth was expected.

The indicator of business conditions in the area of responsibility of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York in November decreased slightly compared to the previous month but remained in positive territory. According to the data, the Fed-New York manufacturing index in November 2019 fell to the level of 2.9 points against 4 points in October.

As for the technical picture of the EURUSD pair, further growth will be limited by the resistance of 1.1080, the breakthrough of which will provide a new influx of buyers and test the highs of 1.1120 and 1.1180. However, without good fundamental statistics on the eurozone, it is unlikely to be possible to reach these levels quickly. Given the fact that the current growth is still only an upward correction of the downward trend, which was formed on November 4, we can count on the attempt of sellers of risky assets to return to the market. This requires a breakdown of the support of 1.1040, which will increase the pressure on the trading instrument and push it back to a minimum of 1.1020. So far, this level is decisive in how the market trend will develop further.

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Overview of GBP/USD pair on November 18th. Boris Johnson comes under indictment, but conservative ratings continue to rise.

4-hour timeframe

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Technical data:

The upper channel of linear regression: direction – up.

The lower channel of linear regression: direction – down.

The moving average (20; smoothed) – up.

CCI: 203.3535

The British pound paired with the US dollar continues a weak upward movement based on all those expectations of traders in the successful outcome of Brexit at the end of January. But macroeconomic statistics from the UK, which was supposed to lower the pound last week by 150-200 points down, continue to be ignored. At the moment, the pound/dollar pair continues to move confidently, albeit slowly, to the Murray level of "+ 1/8" - 1.2970, which is the last local peak. If traders manage to overcome this level, then at least there are no fundamental factors supporting the British currency now, but there will be technical grounds for a new upward trend. Thus, the future of the GBP/USD currency pair for the next few days will depend on the behavior of traders around the level of 1.2970.

From macroeconomic statistics, nothing interesting will happen today. The calendar of events is empty, which in principle often happens on Mondays. Although what difference is published macroeconomic data or not if market participants still do not pay attention to them?

But in the UK, another scandal is brewing, which is very similar to the scandal with Donald Trump in the United States. In general, the two leaders of the UK and the US are very similar to each other. According to the latest information, the topic of participation of the Russian Federation in the UK parliamentary elections has been raised in the UK. According to unverified information, several Russian oligarchs regularly donate large sums to the Conservative Party, thus providing it with serious financial support, with which it is certainly much easier to win elections. The opposition and opponents of Boris Johnson's policy demanded that the Prime Minister publish the report of the intelligence and Security Committee on allegations against Russia in attempts to influence the UK economy. However, the Prime Minister refused to do this until December 12, actually, before the election date. Boris Johnson's view is: "there is no evidence of Russian interference in British politics, and I think we should be very careful — we should not just blame all people from a particular country just because of their nationality." It is assumed that the document contains evidence of Russian interference in the political life of the UK, but the publication of the report was blocked, and the whole story is similar to the one that is now taking place in the US, with the impeachment of Donald Trump. It is clear that the conservatives have opponents, the opposition, and these oppositionists benefit as much as possible to cast a shadow on the figure of Boris Johnson before the parliamentary elections. Just like in the USA, cast a shadow on Donald Trump before the presidential election. We can only observe what is happening and analyze how these events affect the ratings of the Conservative Party, which only show the general mood of the electorate, but do not give reason to assume with high probability the outcome of the parliamentary elections.

The technical picture of the currency pair now reflects an upward trend, so it is quite possible to expect a continuation of the upward movement, but very restrained. We remind traders once again that from a fundamental point of view, the fall of the pound is now much more preferable and it is possible that sooner or later, the bulls will lose their nerve and they will release the British pound, which can then collapse downwards.

Nearest support levels:

S1 – 1.2909

S2 – 1.2878

S3 – 1.2848

Nearest resistance levels:

R1 – 1.2939

R2 – 1.2970

R3 – 1.3000

Trading recommendations:

The GBP/USD pair continues to trade near the moving average line, so any positions on the pair now are still associated with increased risks. Given that traders are practically not responding to fundamental data, the flat may resume. Formally, now we can consider long positions with targets of 1.2970 and 1.3000, however, a downward turn is possible near these levels.

In addition to the technical picture, fundamental data and the time of their release should also be taken into account.

Explanation of the illustrations:

The upper channel of linear regression – the blue line of the unidirectional movement.

The lower channel of linear regression – the purple line of the unidirectional movement.

CCI – the blue line in the regression window of the indicator.

The moving average (20; smoothed) – the blue line on the price chart.

Support and resistance – the red horizontal lines.

Heiken Ashi – an indicator that colors bars in blue or purple.

Possible variants of the price movement:

Red and green arrows.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Elliott wave analysis of GBP/JPY for November 18 - 2019

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GBP/JPY has unfolded just as we expected. The triangle in red wave iv has been completed with the break above minor resistance at 140.59. Now we are looking for the red wave v to go higher towards 144.58.

This rally will complete red wave v, while wave iii is likely to be followed by another corrective decline 140.34 before the next impulsive rally. For now, we keep our focus on the 144.58 target. The support level is 140.25.

R3: 142.52

R2: 142.07

R1: 141.37

Pivot: 140.82

S1: 140.43

S2: 140.32

S3: 140.16

Trading recommendation:

WE are long GBP from 140.12 and we will move our stop higher to 139.30. If you are not long GBP yet, then buy near 140.25 and use the same stop at 139.30.

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Control zones EURUSD 11/18/19

Today, the test of the WCZ 1/2 1.1068-1.1061 took place, which makes it possible to determine the further priority. The formation of the false breakout pattern of Friday's high will make it possible to enter the sale. The downward movement will remain an impulse until the US session closes above the zone.

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The model indicated above is a priority and will be active as long as the pair is trading below the WCZ 1/2. The first goal of the decline will be theNovember low.

An alternative model will be developed if the closure of today's US session occurs above the level of 1.1068. This will allow you to consider purchases, the purpose of which will be an increase to the weekly control zone 1.1147-1.1133. This model will make it possible to enter purchases with a favorable risk-to-profit ratio.

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Daily CZ - daily control zone. The area formed by important data from the futures market, which change several times a year.

Weekly CZ - weekly control zone. The zone formed by important marks of the futures market, which change several times a year.

Monthly CZ - monthly control zone. The zone, which is a reflection of the average volatility over the past year.

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Elliott wave analysis of EUR/JPY for November 18 - 2019

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EUR/JPY dipped to a low of 119.33 from where it moved higher with the clear break above minor resistance at 119.80. The break above resistance at 120.25 will confirm that red wave ii has been completed and a rally to 123.58 is developing.

In the short-term, we are looking for a test of the resistance level at 120.67 and then a minor correction to 120.05 before the next strong rally towards 123.58.

R3: 121.13

R2: 120.85

R1: 120.67

Pivot: 120.30

S1: 120.12

S2: 120.05

S3: 119.82

Trading recommendation:

We are long EUR from 117.25 and we will move our stop higher to 119.30. If you are not long EUR yet, then buy near 120.05 and use the same stop at 119.30

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Overview of EUR/USD pair on November 18th. "Constructive negotiations" between China and the US continue

4-hour timeframe

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Technical data:

The upper channel of linear regression: direction – up.

The lower channel of linear regression: direction – down.

The moving average (20; smoothed) – up.

CCI: 182.9630

Well, last week ended with the strengthening of the European currency although the pair could continue to move down based on fundamental factors. However, the report on industrial production in the United States, which recorded a decline of 0.8% m/m disappointed traders, which triggered a new round of upward movement of the pair. At the same time, volatility remains extremely low, no more than 40 points per day, thus, to call the current growth of the pair strong language does not turn. At the same time, there was a consolidation of quotes of the euro/dollar pair over the moving average line, which indicates a change in the upward trend. As we warned, a purely corrective growth of the euro currency is now possible, since, for more serious purchases of the dollar, traders do not have the necessary fundamental background at their disposal now.

The first trading day of the week in terms of macroeconomic data, as it often happens, is empty. Thus, today volatility may not exceed 20-30 points at all. Of course, Donald Trump can always come to the forefront and "shake" the markets with another loud statement. But such actions of the American President cannot be predicted. Meanwhile, "constructive talks" on a trade deal between China and the US are continuing. This is reported by the website of the Ministry of Commerce of China. According to the information received, the heads of the negotiating delegations of China and the United States held a telephone conversation and once again discussed the key issues of the "first phase" agreement. And of course, where would it be without the traditional assurances of the parties that "the negotiations were successful." "Negotiations have been going on successfully" for more than a year now, and the parties are only happy to introduce new duties against each other, but they are not going to cancel them yet. In such a situation, it should be recalled that such transactions, which will determine the trade relations between the two largest economies of the world for perhaps decades, can be conducted for many years. For example, it took seven years for Canada and the European Union to sign a free trade agreement. Firstly, it means that Donald Trump is not likely to sign an agreement with Beijing. Secondly, the US dollar is unlikely to respond within seven years to the news of "constructive negotiations." Thus, we recommend that traders focus on current news, on macroeconomic reports that are influenced by events that occur between China and the United States. It's no secret that the trade war led to a slowdown in the global economy, as well as to a slowdown in the economies of the United States and China. Thus, the macroeconomic indicators of these countries perfectly reflect "at what stage are the negotiations between the parties now." But the US president can gladly introduce new duties on imports from China if Beijing continues to drag out negotiations or fail to comply with the terms of oral agreements. For some reason, much more is believed in this version of the development of events than in the one that involves agreeing before the New Year. Recall that Trump expects to sign the deal until December 31, after which, most likely, China will impose new duties.

The topic of impeachment of Donald Trump has stalled again, but we have already talked about the fact that the Democrats will not be able to remove Trump from office. And it doesn't make much sense since a year later the presidential election will be held, in which Trump, if he does not agree with China, has low chances of victory. And throughout the next year, Trump and the Democrats will actively "pour mud on each other" as part of the election campaign.

From a technical point of view, the trend for EUR/USD is now upward, but we believe that the growth of the pair now can only be corrective. The potential maximum target of the upward movement is Murray's level of "7/8" - 1.1169. Above this level, we do not see the euro currency.

Nearest support levels:

S1 – 1.1047

S2 – 1.0986

S3 – 1.0925

Nearest resistance levels:

R1 – 1.1108

R2 – 1.1169

R3 – 1.1230

Trading recommendations:

The euro/dollar pair began to adjust against the downward trend. Thus, long positions formally became relevant with a target of 1.1108, which can be worked out. Heiken Ashi indicates an upward trend in intraday. It is recommended to return to the sales of the euro/dollar pair not earlier than the consolidation of traders below the moving average line with the target of 1.0986.

In addition to the technical picture, fundamental data and the time of their release should also be taken into account.

Explanation of the illustrations:

The upper channel of linear regression – the blue line of the unidirectional movement.

The lower channel of linear regression – the purple line of the unidirectional movement.

CCI – the blue line in the indicator window.

The moving average (20; smoothed) – the blue line on the price chart.

Support and resistance – the red horizontal lines.

Heiken Ashi – an indicator that colors bars in blue or purple.

Possible variants of the price movement:

Red and green arrows.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

GBP/USD: plan for the European session on November 18. Weak US economy data supported the pound late last week

To open long positions on GBP/USD you need:

A weak report on US industrial production led to a breakthrough of the upper boundary of the new side channel and a new wave of pound growth against the US dollar. At the moment, an important task of buyers is to protect the level of 1.2909, since the formation of a false breakout on it can lead to continued growth of GBP/USD with an update of the high of 1.2938. However, consolidation above this range will allow us to expect a further upward trend of the pound to the area of 1.2966, where I recommend profit taking. In the absence of active growth from intermediate support of 1.2909, and this option is most likely, it is best to postpone long positions to the test of a larger range 1.2869-60.

To open short positions on GBP/USD you need:

Sellers will concentrate on returning the pound to the support level of 1.2909, and the absence of important fundamental statistics at the beginning of this week will do them good. Consolidation below 1.2909 will push the pair to a larger area of 1.2870-65, where I recommend profit taking. If the bulls try to continue the upward correction at the beginning of this week, then it is best to count on short positions after updating the high of 1.2966, or immediately sell GBP/USD for a rebound from a larger resistance of 1.3017. Any news on the UK elections or the publication of opinion polls will affect the pound's volatility, however, counting on the continuation of the bullish momentum will not be entirely correct.

Signals of indicators:

Moving averages

Trading is above 30 and 50 moving averages, which indicates continued growth of the pound in the short term.

Bollinger bands

The upward movement will be limited by the upper level of the indicator at 1.2938, from where it is possible to open short positions after the formation of a false breakout. In case the pound declines, support will be provided by the lower boundary of the indicator in the area of 1.2869, where today you can see the purchase of the pound just on the rebound.

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Description of indicators

  • MA (moving average) 50 days - yellow
  • MA (moving average) 30 days - green
  • MACD: Fast EMA 12, Slow EMA 26, SMA 9
  • Bollinger Bands 20
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EUR/USD: plan for the European session on November 18. Weak industrial production in the US helped euro buyers continue the

To open long positions on EURUSD you need:

On Friday afternoon, data on industrial production in the United States helped buyers of the euro to continue the upward correction. The report indicated a decline in production by 0.8%, which weakened the position of the US dollar. At the moment, the task of the bulls at the beginning of this week is to maintain the support of 1.1045, and the formation of a false breakout there will be a direct signal to euro purchases. The immediate goal of the bulls will be the resistance test of 1.1080, where I recommend profit taking, as you can hardly expect growth to 1.1101 without good fundamental data on the eurozone. In the case of a decrease in EUR/USD to a support of 1.1045, it will be too early to talk about the return of sellers to the market, as the bulls will try to resume growth from a larger low of 1.1019.

To open short positions on EURUSD you need:

Sellers will not rush to return to the market. Only the formation of a false breakout in the resistance area of 1.1080 will serve as the first signal to open short positions. However, selling the euro right away on the rebound is best after a test of a high of 1.1101. Counting on a major bullish trend would not be entirely correct without good news in the eurozone and given the lack of news at the beginning of the week. Bears can take advantage of this moment and return to the support level of 1.1045. However, a more important task for sellers will be consolidation below this range, which will push the euro to a low of 1.1019, where I recommend profit taking. If this week we are talking about the fact that the Fed will not lower interest rates this year, demand for the US dollar may return after the correction, as the downward trend from November 1 remains.

Signals of indicators:

Moving averages

Trading is conducted above 30 and 50 moving average, which indicates the likely continuation of the upward correction in the pair.

Bollinger bands

Growth will be limited by the upper level of the indicator in the region of 1.1070. In case of a decrease in the pair, it is best to consider long positions after updating the lower boundary of the indicator in the region of 1.1030.

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Description of indicators

  • MA (moving average) 50 days - yellow
  • MA (moving average) 30 days - green
  • MACD: Fast EMA 12, Slow EMA 26, SMA 9
  • Bollinger Bands 20
The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Control zones. OIL 11/18/19

Last week, oil came close to the weekly control zone of 58.49-58.06, which makes it possible to fix part of the purchases during its test. The zone test will determine further priority. If the reaction is a sharp decline in the price and the closure of today's trading below the zone, then sales of the instrument will come to the fore.

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The downward movement will take place within the accumulation zone, so the target level will be the minimum of last week.

An alternative growth model will be developed if the closing of today's trading occurs above the level of 58.49. This will indicate an exit from the flat and continued growth. The purpose of the upward movement will be around the psychological level of $60. Part of the purchases can be left in case of a continuation of the upward movement.

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Daily CZ – daily control zone. A zone formed by important data from the futures market that changes several times a year.

Weekly CZ – weekly control zone. The zone formed by the important marks of the futures market, which change several times a year.

Monthly CZ – monthly control zone. A zone that reflects the average volatility over the past year.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Technical analysis: Important Intraday Levels For EUR/USD, November 18, 2019

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When the European market opens, no economic reports will be released from the euro area, while the US will publish the economic data such as NAHB Housing Market Index, so amid the reports, the EUR/USD pair will move with low to medium volatility during this day. TODAY'S TECHNICAL LEVELS: Breakout BUY Level: 1.1111. Strong Resistance: 1.1105. Original Resistance: 1.1094. Inner Sell Area: 1.1083. Target Inner Area: 1.1057. Inner Buy Area: 1.1031. Original Support: 1.1020. Strong Support: 1.1009. Breakout SELL Level: 1.1003. (Disclaimer)The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Technical analysis: Important Intraday Levels for USD/JPY, November 18, 2019

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In Asia, Japan will not release any economic reports today, while the US will publish some economic data such as NAHB Housing Market Index. So there is a probability the USD/JPY pair will move with low to medium volatility during this day. TODAY'S TECHNICAL LEVELS: Resistance. 3: 109.34.Resistance. 2: 109.14. Resistance. 1: 108.93. Support. 1: 108.68. Support. 2: 108.47. Support. 3: 108.27. (Disclaimer)The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Forecast for EUR/USD on November 18, 2019

EUR/USD

The euro grew by 30 points on Friday and this was consolidated above the MACD line of the daily scale. Therefore, correctional growth may continue. But growth looks limited at the moment, and the line of the falling price channel and the boundary with the growth territory (0.00) according to the Marlin indicator act as restraints. Only with price consolidation above the price channel line (1.1093) is it possible to continue growth to the first upward target at the Fibonacci level of 110.0% at the price of 1.1155. At the moment, the correction is more likely to complete in the range of 1.1073/93.

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On a four-hour chart, the Marlin oscillator is in a growing position, the price is above the balance lines (red) and the MACD line (blue). We are waiting for the completion of correction in the range of 1.1073/93.

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Forecast for GBP/USD on November 18, 2019

GBP/USD

The growth of the British pound continues. This morning, the price reached a correction of 76.4% from the fall of October 31 - November 8. The correction is deep, consolidation above this level may strengthen the growth trend towards the high of October 21, 1.3012. The first growth target is the October 31 high at 1.2975. The Marlin oscillator on the daily pushes the boundary with the growth territory.

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On a four-hour chart, the price is testing the Fibonacci level of 76.4%. The signal line of the Marlin oscillator lies in a horizontal trend, which gives a weak signal for a price reversal from current levels. In case of such success, we are waiting for the price on the support of the MACD line of the scale in question in the region of 1.2817. Both options - uncertain growth and a downward reversal, are equally probable.

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EUR/USD approaching resistance potential drop!

Price is approaching our first resistance where we are expecting a drop below this level.

Entry: 1.10628

38.2% Fibonacci retracement, 78.6% Fibonacci extension, horizontal overlap resistance

Take Profit : 1.09994

Why it's good : 61.8% Fibonacci retracement, 78.6% Fibonacci extension, horizontal overlap support

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USD/CAD to drift lower

USDCAD to drift lower towards support at 1.31975.

Entry: 1.32380

38.2% Fibonacci retracement, moving average

Take Profit : 1.31975

Why it's good : 50% Fibonacci retracement, 100% Fibonacci Extension

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USD/CHF to bounce from 1st support, potential rally!

Entry: 0.9875

Why it's good: Horizontal swing low support

78.6% Fibonacci retracement

Take Profit : 0.9983

Why it's good : 78.6% Fibonacci extension

76.4% Fibonacci retracement

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Forecast for AUD/USD on November 18, 2019

AUD/USD

The aussie grew last Friday, under the general weakening of the US dollar and new rumors about the imminent resolution of US-Chinese friction. The price exceeded the indicator lines of balance (red) and MACD (blue). Even if we take this exit as false (the Marlin indicator still remains in the negative trend zone), the price has the opportunity to continue to grow to the level of 0.6832, which is a low on June 18. Consolidation above the level opens the second growth target at the price of 0.6866 - strong support of May of this year.

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On the four-hour chart, the level of the first target at 0.6832 coincides with the Fibonacci level of 38.2% of the price movement on October 31 - November 14, to which, in order to strengthen it, the MACD line is approaching. The level of the bulls' second target of 0.6866 is close to the Fibonacci level of 61.8%.

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So, our main scenario is the AUD/USD reversal from the nearest target of 0.6832 with the development of a new wave of decline. The probability of this scenario is determined at 60%. We will allocate a probability of 30% -35% for price growth to the level of 0.6866 and less than 10% for even greater growth (to the upper line of the price channel).

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Control zones AUDUSD 11/18/19

The pair grew last Friday, which was triggered by achieving the average weekly move zone. The WCZ 1/2 0.6837-0.6831 will act on the growth path. If the zone test leads to a sharp reaction and the formation of the absorption pattern, then it will be necessary to re-enter the sales.

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The downward movement remains a medium-term impulse, so keeping the price below the WCZ 1/2 will make it possible to keep the sale to the low of the previous week, where partial consolidation will be required.

An alternative model will be developed if the closing of trading on Monday occurs above the WCZ 1/2. This will indicate a change in priority. Purchasing will come to the fore, and the new goal will be the high of last week.

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Daily CZ - daily control zone. The area formed by important data from the futures market, which change several times a year.

Weekly CZ - weekly control zone. The zone formed by important marks of the futures market, which change several times a year.

Monthly CZ - monthly control zone. The zone, which is a reflection of the average volatility over the past year.

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Control zones USDJPY 11/18/2019

The pair tested the WCZ 1/2 108.48-108.38 last Thursday. Consolidation below the zone did not occur, therefore, the upward medium-term impulse remains a priority. The first growth target is the November high. Its achievement will make it possible to close part of the purchases and transfer the rest to breakeven.

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Closing Friday trades made it possible to form an absorption pattern of the daily level, which confirms the bullish momentum.

Re-absorption of Friday purchases will be required to implement an alternative option. The probability of this is below 30%, which does not make it possible to consider sales. The main goal of the bullish impulse is the weekly control zone 110.15-109.94, which gives a favorable risk-to-profit ratio for any purchase made from current levels and below. Therefore, it is necessary to consider the possibility of adding to a long position.

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Daily CZ - daily control zone. The area formed by important data from the futures market, which change several times a year.

Weekly CZ - weekly control zone. The zone formed by important marks of the futures market, which change several times a year.

Monthly CZ - monthly control zone. The zone, which is a reflection of the average volatility over the past year.

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Fractal analysis of the main currency pairs for November 18

Forecast for November 18:

Analytical review of currency pairs on the scale of H1:

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For the euro / dollar pair, the key levels on the H1 scale are: 1.1125, 1.1108, 1.1081, 1.1060, 1.1038, 1.1022, 1.1004 and 1.0986. Here, the price forms the potential initial conditions for the upward cycle of November 14. The continuation of the movement to the top is expected after the breakdown of the level of 1.1060. In this case, the target is 1.1081. Price consolidation is near this level. The breakdown of the level of 1.1081 should be accompanied by a pronounced upward movement. Here, the goal is 1.1108. For the potential value for the top, we consider the level of 1.1125. Upon reaching which, we expect consolidation, as well as a pullback to the bottom.

Short-term downward movement is expected in the range of 1.1038 - 1.1022. The breakdown of the last value will lead to an in-depth correction. Here, the target is 1.1004. This level is a key support for the upward structure. Its breakdown will allow us to count on movement to the first potential target - 1.0986.

The main trend is building potential for the top of November 14.

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 1.1060 Take profit: 1.1080

Buy: 1.1083 Take profit: 1.1106

Sell: 1.1036 Take profit: 1.1024

Sell: 1.1021 Take profit: 1.1005

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For the pound / dollar pair, the key levels on the H1 scale are: 1.3079, 1.3032, 1.2997, 1.2946, 1.2887, 1.2866, 1.2833, 1.2817 and 1.2765. Here, we continue to monitor the development of the upward cycle of November 8. The continuation of the movement to the top is expected after the breakdown of the level of 1.2946. In this case, the target is 1.2997. Short-term upward movement, as well as consolidation is in the range of 1.2997 - 1.3032. For the potential value for the top, we consider the level of 1.3079. Upon reaching which, we expect a pullback to the bottom.

A short-term downward movement is possibly in the range of 1.2887 - 1.2866. The breakdown of the latter value will lead to an in-depth correction. Here, the target is 1.2833. The range of 1.2833 - 1.2817 is the key support for the upward structure from November 8. Its passage in price will lead to the development of a downward trend. Here, the first target is 1.2765.

The main trend is the upward cycle of November 8.

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 1.2946 Take profit: 1.2995

Buy: 1.2998 Take profit: 1.3030

Sell: 1.2887 Take profit: 1.2867

Sell: 1.2864 Take profit: 1.2838

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For the dollar / franc pair, the key levels on the H1 scale are: 0.9930, 0.9913, 0.9900, 0.9881, 0.9863, 0.9853 and 0.9831. Here, we are following the development of the downward cycle of November 8. At the moment, the price is in correction. The continuation of the movement to the bottom is expected after the breakdown of the level of 0.9881. In this case, the target is 0.9863. Price consolidation is in the range of 0.9863 - 0.9853. For the potential value for the bottom, we consider the level of 0.9831. The expressed movement to which is expected after the breakdown of the level of 0.9851.

Short-term upward movement is possibly in the range of 0.9900 - 0.9913. The breakdown of the last value will lead to an in-depth correction. Here, the goal is 0.9930. This level is a key support for the downward structure.

The main trend is the downward cycle of November 8, the correction stage

Trading recommendations:

Buy : 0.9900 Take profit: 0.9911

Buy : 0.9914 Take profit: 0.9930

Sell: 0.9880 Take profit: 0.9865

Sell: 0.9852 Take profit: 0.9831

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For the dollar / yen pair, the key levels on the scale are : 109.09, 108.91, 108.73, 108.44, 108.27, 108.06 and 107.92. Here, we continue to monitor the development of the downward cycle of November 7. At the moment, the price is in the correction zone from this structure. Short-term downward movement is expected in the range of 108.44 - 108.27. The breakdown of the last value should be accompanied by a pronounced downward movement. Here, the target is 108.06. We consider the level of 107.92 to be a potential value for the bottom. Upon reaching this value, we expect consolidation in the range of 108.06 - 107.92, as well as a rollback to correction.

Short-term upward movement, as well as consolidation, are expected in the range of 108.73 - 108.91. We consider the level of 109.09 to be a potential value for the top. We expect the initial conditions for an ascending cycle to be formed to this level.

The main trend: the downward structure of November 7, the correction stage

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 108.73 Take profit: 108.90

Buy : 108.94 Take profit: 109.07

Sell: 108.44 Take profit: 108.29

Sell: 108.25 Take profit: 108.06

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For the Canadian dollar / US dollar pair, the key levels on the H1 scale are: 1.3332, 1.3268, 1.3246, 1.3208, 1.3185 and 1.3156. Here, the price is in the correction zone from the upward trend and has developed the potential for the bottom of November 14. A short-term upward movement, as well as consolidation, is expected in the range of 1.3246 - 1.3268. The breakdown of the latter value will lead to a pronounced movement. Here, the potential target is 1.3332, and upon reaching this level, we expect a pullback to the bottom.

Short-term downward movement is possibly in the range of 1.3208 - 1.3185. The breakdown of the last value will lead to an in-depth correction. Here, the target is 1.3156. This level is a key support for the upward structure.

The main trend is the formation of potential for the downward movement of November 14.

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 1.3246 Take profit: 1.3266

Buy : 1.3270 Take profit: 1.3332

Sell: 1.3208 Take profit: 1.3187

Sell: 1.3183 Take profit: 1.3156

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For the Australian dollar / US dollar pair, the key levels on the H1 scale are : 0.6845, 0.6820, 0.6805, 0.6767, 0.6753, 0.6722 and 0.6700. Here, we are following the development of the downward cycle of November 5. At the moment, the price is in correction. Short-term downward movement is expected in the range of 0.6767 - 0.6753. The breakdown of the last value should be accompanied by a pronounced downward movement to the level of 0.6722. Price consolidation is near this level. For the potential value for the bottom, we consider the level of 0.6700. Upon reaching this value, we expect a rollback to the top.

Consolidated movement is expected in the range of 0.6805 - 0.6820. The breakdown of the latter value will lead to an in-depth correction. Here, the target is 0.6845. This level is the key support for the downward structure from November 5.

The main trend is the downward structure of November 5, the correction stage.

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 0.6805 Take profit: 0.6820

Buy: 0.6823 Take profit: 0.6842

Sell : 0.6767 Take profit : 0.6754

Sell: 0.6751 Take profit: 0.6724

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For the euro / yen pair, the key levels on the H1 scale are: 121.40, 121.12, 120.70, 120.35, 120.03, 119.83, 119.51 and 119.25. Here, the price forms a pronounced potential for the upward movement of November 14. The continuation of the movement to the top is expected after the breakdown of the level of 120.35. Here, the goal is 120.70. Price consolidation is near this level. The breakdown of the level of 120.70 should be accompanied by a pronounced upward movement. Here, the goal is 121.12. For the potential value for the top, we consider the level of 121.40. Upon reaching this level, we expect a pullback to the bottom.

Short-term downward movement is expected in the range of 120.03 - 119.83. The breakdown of the last value will lead to an in-depth correction. Here, the goal is 119.51. This level is a key support for the upward structure.

The main trend is the formation of a pronounced potential for the top of November 14.

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 120.35 Take profit: 120.68

Buy: 120.72 Take profit: 121.10

Sell: 120.03 Take profit: 119.83

Sell: 119.80 Take profit: 119.51

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For the pound / yen pair, the key levels on the H1 scale are : 141.93, 141.57, 141.27, 140.72, 140.15, 139.79, 139.36 and 138.97. Here, we are following the formation of the ascending structure of November 14. The continuation of the movement to the top is expected after the breakdown of the level of 140.72. In this case, the goal is 141.27. Short-term movement to the top, as well as consolidation is in the range of 141.27 - 141.57. We consider the level of 141.93 to be a potential value for the upward trend; upon reaching this level, we expect a pullback in correction.

Short-term downward movement is possibly in the range 140.15 - 139.79. The breakdown of the latter value will favor the formation of a downward structure. Here, the target is 139.36. For the potential value for the bottom, we consider the level of 138.97, to which the design of the local structure is expected.

The main trend is the formation of potential for the upward cycle of November 14.

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 140.72 Take profit: 141.25

Buy: 141.28 Take profit: 141.55

Sell: 140.15 Take profit: 139.83

Sell: 139.76 Take profit: 139.40

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Bitcoin still sliding down the trend line

Bitcoin is sliding lower making lower lows and lower highs. Price is still above the downward sloping trend line resistance that was broken, but there is no sign of an upward reversal. However we keep a close eye to the RSI that provides us with some bullish clues.

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Red line - major resistance trend line

Black line - bullish divergence and RSI support

Bitcoin vs USD is sliding lower after the big spike back at the end of October. Price moved above $9,000 but is now moving below $8,600 again. However the RSI tells a different story. The RSI is not making new lows. The RSI has just reached its support trend line. What happens now?Usually we see a move higher. So I'm a expecting a rally in BTCUSD and to at least break above the first important short-term resistance at $8,840. Next important resistance is at $9,560. Breaking above this level will most probably push prices towards $11,000. Support is strong around $8,500 and I'm bullish here looking for a move higher.

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Technical analysis of Gold for November 18, 2019

Gold price has bounced towards our first target at the 38% Fibonacci retracement after warning bears of the bullish divergence signs. This short-term relief bounce is still considered a selling opportunity as long as Gold price is below $1,525.

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Orange rectangle- resistance

Green lines - bullish divergence

Gold price has stopped its rise at $1,474 where the 38% retracement of the latest leg down is found.Short-term support is found at $1,462 and next at $1,446. Resistance is found at $1,475 and if broken I expect Gold to push higher towards $1.490 which is also an important Fibonacci resistance and a previously major support level, now resistance. I believe there are a lot of chances of seeing $1,490 again.

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EURUSD bounce is underway as expected

In previous we mentioned the increased probability of a bounce in EURUSD from the major Fibonacci retracement support level around 1.10. Price has bounced from 1.0988 low and the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level.

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Green lines - bullish divergence

EURUSD ended the week at 1.1052 having bounced off the important Fibonacci support level we mentioned. Additionally we also noted that bullish divergence signs were evident in the 4 hour RSI and that was a warning for bears. This warning was a sign of increased chances of a bounce....The bounce came and it is now very important to see how this week unfolds. Has EURUSD made an equally important higher low relative to the October low of 1.0880. Is this the level where we see the start of a new upward wave that will eventually push price above 1.12?There are many chances of this happening.

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In Ichimoku cloud terms EURUSD is challenging short-term cloud resistance. Support is at 1.1020 and resistance at 1.1050. Trend remains bearish as price is below the 4 hour cloud. In order for the short-term trend to change to bullish price must break above the Kumo (cloud). Additionally bulls want price to continue making higher highs and higher lows as the tenkan-sen (red line indicator) is about to cross above the kijun-sen (green line indicator). This happening below the cloud is a weak bullish signal, but still a bullish one. So bears need to be cautious. A rejection at 1.1050 if followed by a weekly close below 1.0980 would be a bearish sign.The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com