EUR/NZD analysis for January 26, 2016

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Overview:

Recently, EUR/NZD has been moving sideways in the area of 1.6670. In the daily time frame, we can observe a bullish bar but in a low volume, which is a sign that buying looks risky. I have placed Fibonacci retracement to find potential resistance and I found Fibonacci retracement 61.8% at the level of 1.7180 (successfully held few days ago). In the H4 time frame, the price has broken our intraday upward trend line, and we may see possible downward movement. Be careful when buying and watch for potential selling opportunities.The short-term take profit zone is set at the level of 1.5850.

Fibonacci Pivot Points:

Resistance levels:

R1: 1.6830

R2: 1.6895

R3: 1.7000

Support levels:

S1: 1.6620

S2: 1.6550

S3: 1.6450

Trading recommendations: Intraday trend is downward. Watch for potential selling opportunities.

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Gold analysis for January 26 , 2016

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Overview:

Since our last analysis, gold has been trading upwards. As I expected, the price tested the level of $1,117.42. In the daily time frame, we can observe a demand bar in an average, which is a sign that sellers do not have power and that we may expect further upward movements to take place. An intraday trend is upward. The price broke our resistance level at $1.111.50, which is now acting as good support. This area looks like a good place to open buying positions. The take-profit zone is set at the level of $1,134.00 (Fibonacci retracement 61.8%).

Daily Fibonacci pivot points:

Resistance levels:

R1: 1,109.60

R2: 1,112.00

R3: 1,115.85

Support levels:

S1: 1,102.00

S2: 1,099.60

S3: 1,095.80

Trading recommendations: Watch for potential buying opportunities on dips.

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Global macro overview for 26/01/2016

Global macro overview for 26/01/2016:

The NAB Business Confidence index data was released overnight in Australia and the figures remained strong in December. Despite the recent market sell-off, the business confidence declined only slightly from +5 in November to +3 in December. The data reflects that the sentiment among the Australian firms remains positive and it is in line with the expectations of the Australian policy makers: the non-mining recovery remains on track. In such a situation. the Reserve Bank of Australia should not cut the interest rate in the near future.

Now let us take a look at the technical picture of AUD/USD. After a recent sell-off at the end of the year, the double-bottom pattern has been made, making the level of 0.6826 important long-term support. Currently, the AUD/USD pair is trying to climb higher and break above near-term resistance at the level of 0.7470. Next support is seen at the level of 0.6918.

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Global macro overview for 26/01/2016

Global macro overview for 26/01/2016:

Crude oil prices are in the spotlight again as they fell back below the $30 a barrel. The recent remarks from Kuwait and Iraq regarding the willingness to cut oil production in coordination with other non-OPEC countries did not help oil prices rise. There is still plenty of supply in the market; moreover, the Iraqi oil production hit a record in December as the output increased in the southern and central fields.

From the technical point of view, there is an interesting situation as oil prices might be forming a double-bottom pattern. The first leg of this pattern is already in place and now the lower channel line is being tested around the important psychological level of $30. The bearish engulfing pattern in the daily time frame must be confirmed by another daily downside candle to confirm this scenario. If it is successful, we might see another test of the low at the level of 26.16.

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Technical analysis of NZD/USD for January 26, 2016

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Overview:

  • According to the previous events, the NZD/USD pair has still been moving between 0.6440 and 0.6497. Today, strong resistance will be formed at the level of 0.6537, providing a clear signal for sell deals with the target seen at 0.6466 and 0.6406 in order to test the double bottom on the H1 chart. Moreover, in the long term, a strong support level will be formed at the level of 0.6406, providing a clear signal for resell deals with the targets seen at the 0.6348 mark, with a view to test the double bottom in the same time frame. However, stop loss is to be placed above 0.6575.

Notes:

  • We expect a range about 93 pips today.
  • The risk of 62 pips must make a profit of 93 pips.
  • The level of 0.6537 will confirm the bearish market.
  • Volatility today is 95.50. As a rule, the market is highly volatile if the last day has huge volatility.
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Technical analysis of USD/CHF for January 26, 2016

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Overview:

  • The USD/CHF pair has already found the major support at the level of 1.0057 and minor support is found at 1.0120. Equally important, the level of 1.0120 coincides with a ratio of 61.8% Fibonacci retracement levels. On the other hand, the double top was placed at the point of 1.0263; and the first resistance line is seen at 1.0211. Additionally, according to the previous events, the price will move between 1.0120 and 1.0263. In addition, we expect a range of about 123 pips today. Also, it should be noted that the trend is ascending from the support level of 1.0120. Therefore, strong support is expected to be found at the level of 1.0120 providing a clear signal to buy with a targets at 1.0211. If the trend is able to break the first target, it will resume towards 1.0263. Anywise, stop loss should never exceed your maximum exposure amounts, for that the stop loss should be placed below the double bottom at the level of 1.0012.

Forecast:

  • The minor support sets at 1.0120 for that it is a good deal to buy at 1.0120 with targets at 1.0211 and 1.0263. However, the stop loss must be placed at 1.0012.
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Technical analysis of USD/JPY for January 26, 2016

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USD/JPY is expected to trade in a lower range. Overnight, the US stocks ended lower as pressure on oil prices resumed. The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 1.3% to 15885, the S&P 500 dropped 1.6% to 1877, while the Nasdaq Composite was down 1.6% to 4518.

Nymex crude oil, which had soared 9% last Friday, gave back 5.7% to settle at $30.34 a barrel. Gold gained 1.0% to $1108 an ounce, while the benchmark 10-year Treasury yield moved down to 2.022% from 2.052% in the previous session.

Meanwhile, as oil prices weakened, the Canadian dollar erased its earlier gains against the US dollar, with USD/CAD surging 1.2% to 1.4289. At the same time, EUR/USD rose 0.5% to 1.0847, USD/JPY declined 0.4% to 118.28, and AUD/USD was down 0.7% to 0.6954.

The pair has broken below a bullish trend line remaining on the downside. Currently, it is trading below the 20-period (30-minute chart) moving average, which stands below the 50-period one. Meanwhile, the intraday relative strength index remains below the neutrality level of 50 after breaking below a rising trend line. Therefore, the intraday outlook has turned bearish and the pair should decline toward the first downside target at 117.50 (a level of over-lapping support and resistance) and the second target at 117.10.

Trading recommendations:

The pair is trading below its pivot point. It is likely to trade in a lower range as long as it remains below the pivot point. Short positions are recommended with the first target at 117.50. A break of that target will move the pair further downwards to 117.10. The pivot point stands at 118.50. In case the price moves in the opposite direction and bounces back from the support level, it will move above its pivot point. It is likely to move further to the upside. According to that scenario, long positions are recommended with the first target at 119.20 and the second target at 119.60

Resistance levels: 119.20, 119.60, 119.90

Support levels: 117.50,117.10,116.75

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Technical analysis of USD/CHF for January 26, 2016

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USD/CHF is expected to trade with a bullish bias above 1.0100. The pair stands firmly above its nearest support of 1.0100, and may challenge its next resistance at 1.0175. The process of reaching higher highs and lows remains intact, which should confirm a positive outlook. Besides, the support found at 1.0100 has raised a possibility of a temporary stabilization. To sum up, any consolidations above 1.0100 should be limited before a further advance to 1.0175 and 1.0215.

Trading recommendations:

The pair is trading above its pivot point. It is likely to trade in a wider range as long as it remains above its pivot point. As long as the price holds above its pivot point, long positions are recommended with the first target at 1.0175 and the second target at 1.0215. In the alternative scenario, short positions are recommended with the first target at 1.0065 if the price moves below its pivot points. A break of this target is likely to push the pair further downwards, and one may expect the second target at 1.0030. The pivot point is at 1.0100.

Resistance levels: 1.0175, 1.0215,1.0245

Support levels: 1.0065,1.0030, 0.9990

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Technical analysis of NZD/USD for January 26, 2016

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NZD/USD is expected to move downwards. The pair remains under pressure below its nearest resistance at 0.6495. Both the 20-period and 50-period moving averages are heading downwards acting resistance roles. Besides, the relative strength index is turning down below its neutrality area of 50. In this case, as long as 0.6495 is not surpassed, further decline is more likely to occur to 0.6410 and 0.6370.

Trading recommendations:

The pair is trading below its pivot point. It is likely to trade in a lower range as long as it remains below the pivot point. Short positions are recommended with the first target at 0.6410. A break of that target will move the pair further downwards to 0.6350. The pivot point stands at 0.6495. In case the price moves in the opposite direction and bounces back from the support level, it will move above its pivot point. It is likely to move further to the upside. According to that scenario, long positions are recommended with the first target at 0.6520 and the second target at 0.6550.

Resistance levels: 0.6520,0.6550, 0.6610

Support levels: 0.6410, 0.6350, 0.63

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Technical analysis of GBP/JPY for January 26, 2016

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GBP/JPY is expected to trade in a lower range as the pair is under pressure now. The pair is trading below its key resistance at 169.40 and remains on the downside. The 20-period moving average stays above its 50-period one, while the relative strength index lacks downward momentum. Further downside is therefore expected with the next horizontal resistance and overlap set at 166.65 first. A breakout below this level would call for a further decline towards 166.05.

Trading Recommendations:

The pair is trading below its pivot point. It is likely to trade in a lower range as long as it remains below the pivot point. Short positions are recommended with the first target at 166.65. A break of that target will move the pair further downwards to 166.05. The pivot point stands at 169.40. In case the price moves in the opposite direction and bounces back from the support level, it will move above its pivot point. It is likely to move further to the upside. According to that scenario, long positions are recommended with the first target at 170.35 and the second target at 171.35.

Resistance levels: 170.35, 171.35, 172

Support levels: 166.65, 166.05, 165.50

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USDX technical analysis for January 26, 2016

The US dollar index is getting under pressure ahead of the FOMC rate announcement and Janet Yellen's speech. The bearish wedge pattern I mentioned in my previous post is being tested and we could see a downward breakdown over the next couple of sessions.

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Red lines - bearish wedge

The price is above the Ichimoku cloud in the 4-hour chart, but it has also broken below the kijun-sen support. The next support is found at 98.80-98.60 where the Ichimoku cloud is observed and a lower boundary of the upward sloping wedge.

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Red lines - upward sloping wedge

The daily chart remains bullish as the price remains above the cloud, inside the wedge and above both the tenkan- and kijun-sen indicators. Volatility is expected to rise over the next two sessions. I believe the price is likely to break out downwards towards 97. Resistance is seen at 100.

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Gold technical analysis for January 26, 2016

Gold price is moving higher towards our targeted area of $1,120-30. A trend remains bullish in the short-term, but bulls should start being cautious and raise their stops as we are approaching important resistance levels.

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Blue lines - bullish channel

Red line - long-term support

Gold price has reached the 50% retracement of a decline from $1,190. The trend is bullish as the price is breaking above the Ichimoku cloud. The next resistance and possible reversal level is seen at $1,130 where we find the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement.

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The weekly chart remains bullish for the short-term and price is approaching the kijun-sen resistance indicator as we expected. A weekly close above the kijun-sen will push gold price towards the Ichimoku cloud at $1,150.The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Technical analysis of USD/CAD for January 26, 2016

General overview for 26/01/2016:

The USD/CAD pair moved higher in its corrective cycle. Currently, it is trading just below the 38%Fibo at the level of 1.4330. This level should act as strong resistance and the price should reverse to the downside as there is still one more wave missing. The current-corrective cycle might extend the drop as low as the level of 1.000, so the correction might get very large, complex, and time-consuming.

Support/Resistance:

1.4690 - Swing High

1.4436 - WR1

1.4420 - Technical Resistance

1.4330 - 38%Fibo

1.4325 - Intraday Resistance

1.4272 - Weekly Pivot

1.4228 - Intraday Support

1.4112 - Intraday Support

Trading recommendations:

Day traders should consider placing sell orders from the current levels as there is still one more wave to the downside missing (wave (v) green). The SL for this trade should be placed above the level of 1.4228 and TP at the level of 1.4112.

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Technical analysis of EUR/JPY for January 26, 2016

General overview for 26/01/2016:

Labeling for EUR/JPY has been updated to incorporate wave b purple triangle pattern, just as anticipated yesterday. Currently, the last wave to the downside is in progress, and if the intraday support at the level of 127.42 is not violated, then a bullish trend should resume. In case the support breaks out, traders should be ready for a more complex corrective cycle and a possible test at the level of 126.12.

Support/Resistance:

126.08 - Higher Time Frame Cycles Invalidation Level

126.95 - WS1

127.41 - Intraday Support

127.75 - Weekly Pivot

129.08 - Intraday Resistance

129.34 - WR1

130.13 - WR2

130.75 - 130.85 - Technical Resistance| Gap |

Trading recommendations:

Day traders should consider placing buy order from the level of 127.42 in order to catch the anticipated wave -iii- to the upside. The SL for this trade should be placed below the level of 126.08 and TP will open now. Moreover, this position might be an opportunity for longer and more profitable swing trading.

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Elliott wave analysis of EUR/NZD for January 26, 2016

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Wave summary:

EUR/NZD failed to move lower towards 1.6480. Instead of it, the pair broke above resistance at 1.6706 indicating that the bottom was already in place for the expanded flat wave ii. After an expanded flat wave two, an extended rally should always be expected. So, the bottom is about to break above minor resistance at 1.7010 and more importantly above 1.7273, strong and almost vertical rally towards at least 1.7641 and more likely even higher to 1.8020 should be expected.

In the short term, we expect minor support at 1.6706 to protect the downside for a breakout above 1.7010 for another impulsive move higher to 1.7641.

Trading recommendation:

We bought EUR at 1.6706 and placed our stop at 1.6505. If you are not long EUR yet, then buy near 1.6706 and use the same stop at 1.6505.

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Elliott wave analysis of EUR/JPY for January 26, 2016

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Wave summary:

We continue to watch for more corrective consolidation after the test of 126.14. In the short term, we would not be surprised to see a minor dip closer to 127.41 and maybe even lower to 127.17 before the next move higher towards 129.07 takes place to end the correction in wave [iv] and to set a stage for a new impulsive decline in wave [v] towards 123.89. We expect this level to act as the next ideal downside target.

Trading recommendation;

We will sell EUR again at 129.00 with stop placed at 130.80.

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Technical analysis of EUR/USD for January 26, 2016

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When the European market opens, no economic news is due to be released. But the US will publish data on the Richmond Manufacturing Index, CB Consumer Confidence, Flash Services PMI, S&P/CS Composite-20 HPI y/y, and HPI m/m. So amid the reports, EUR/USD will move with low to medium volatility during this day.

TODAY'S TECHNICAL LEVEL:

Breakout BUY Level: 1.0899.

Strong Resistance:1.0893.

Original Resistance: 1.0882.

Inner Sell Area: 1.0871.

Target Inner Area: 1.0846.

Inner Buy Area: 1.0821.

Original Support: 1.0810.

Strong Support: 1.0799.

Breakout SELL Level: 1.0793.

Disclaimer: Trading Forex (foreign exchange) on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.

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Technical analysis of USD/JPY for January 26, 2016

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In Asia, Japan will release data on the SPPI y/y. The US will deliver economic data on the Richmond Manufacturing Index, CB Consumer Confidence, Flash Services PMI, S&P/CS Composite-20 HPI y/y, and HPI m/m. So there is a probability that the USD/JPY will move with low to medium volatility during this day.

TODAY'S TECHNICAL LEVEL:

Resistance. 3: 118.69.

Resistance. 2: 118.46.

Resistance. 1: 118.23.

Support. 1: 117.94.

Support. 2: 117.71.

Support. 3: 117.48.

Disclaimer: Trading Forex (foreign exchange) on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Daily analysis of major pairs for January 26, 2016

EUR/USD: There is already a Bearish Confirmation Pattern seen in the EUR/USD chart, albeit the price made a faint effort to rally on Monday. The market went upwards by a mere 40 pips, rising from the support line of 1.0800. The current bearish pattern would be logical as long as the price does not go above the resistance line of 1.0950 (which is an adamant barrier to the bulls). An outlook for the EUR (plus other EUR pairs) is bearish for this week, and thus, the price could eventually trade lower.

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USD/CHF: There is still a lot of trading activities around the level of 1.0150, which is an important level. There is a high possibility that the price would be trading above that level this week, in order to continue its bullish journey which was started last week. Today's outlook for the US dollar is bright and this might help the pair to move further northwards.

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GBP/USD: As long as the distribution territories of 1.4550 and 1.4600 are not breached to the upside, long trades will not be sensitive to the cable. The current shallow rally in the market could turn out to be a good opportunity to sell short. The price is likely to test the accumulation territories around 1.4150 and 1.4000, which were also tested last week.

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USD/JPY: This pair merely moved sideways yesterday, though a closer look at the chart shows that the price is likely to trend further upwards this week. This poses a threat to an extant bearish outlook, which will eventually be rendered invalid when the supply level at 119.00 is overcome. The outlook for USD is bright and therefore the USD/JPY pair might continue moving upwards.

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EUR/JPY: The EUR/JPY pair consolidated on Monday. There are demand zones around 128.00 and 127.50. There are also supply zones of 129.00 and 130.00. The price would either break above the supply zones or break below the demand zones today or tomorrow, and this can result in a directional movement.

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Daily analysis of USDX for January 26, 2016

USDX has found resistance at the 99.49 level and now we can see a decline towards the support level of 99.22 where the nearest moving average (200) is located . It seems the bullish bias will remain alive, as the index is still trading above that price zone. Besides, there are no significant bearish patterns formations on the road.

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H1 chart's resistance levels: 99.49 / 99.69

H1 chart's support levels: 99.22 / 98.97

Trading recommendations for today: Based on the H1 chart, place buy (long) orders only if the USD index breaks a bullish candlestick; the resistance level is at 99.49, take profit is at 99.69, and stop loss is at 99.28.

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Daily analysis of GBP/USD for January 26, 2016

GBP/USD has been trading into a slow tone below the 200 SMA at H1 chart where a dynamic resistance can be found. The area around the 1.4309 level is still offering some opportunities for sellers on an intraday basis, as the cable seems to have ended the correction in the upside. A breakout below the 1.4198 level will confirm that scenario. MACD indicator is entering at neutral territory.

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H1 chart's resistance levels: 1.4309 / 1.4373

H1 chart's support levels: 1.4198 / 1.4080

Trading recommendations for today: Based on the H1 chart, place sell (short) orders only if the GBP/USD pair breaks a bearish candlestick; the support level is at 1.4198, take profit is at 1.4080, and stop loss is at 1.4309.

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Technical analysis of USD/JPY for January 25, 2016

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USD/JPY is expected to trade in a higher range. Last Friday, US stocks advanced further, driven by energy shares as oil prices continued their rebound. Strong buying was also seen in technology and telecoms shares. Nymex crude oil soared 9.0% to $32.19 a barrel, rallying 21.2% in two days. The Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 1.3% to 16,093, the S&P 500 rose 2.0% to 1,906, while the Nasdaq Composite was up 2.7% to 4,591.

Gold eased 0.3% to $1,097 an ounce, while the benchmark 10-year Treasury yield climbed to 2.052% from 2.021% on Thursday.

Meanwhile, the US dollar strengthened against the euro, the Japanese yen, and the Swiss franc with EUR/USD losing 0.7% to 1.0794, USD/JPY rising 0.9% to 118.77 and USD/CHF gaining 0.9% to 1.0156. On the other hand, boosted by stronger oil prices, the Canadian dollar rebounded against the greenback. USD/CAD dropped 1.0% to 1.4115, losing 3.2% in three days.The pair continued with its uptrend with the bullish intraday outlook being maintained by the ascending 50-period (30-minute chart) moving average. The 20-period moving average stays above the 50-period one. As long as 117.95 holds as the key support, the pair is expected to reach the first upside target at 119.15 (around the high of January 6) and the second one at 119.60 (around the high of January 5).

Trading recommendations:

The pair is trading above its pivot point. It is likely to trade in a wider range as long as it remains above its pivot point. As long as the price holds above its pivot point, long positions are recommended with the first target at 119.15 and the second target at 119.60. In the alternative scenario, short positions are recommended with the first target at 117.45 if the price moves below its pivot points. A break of this target is likely to push the pair further downwards, and one may expect the second target at 117.10. The pivot point is at 117.95.

Resistance levels: 119.15, 119.60, 119.90

Support levels: 117.45,117.10,116.75

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Technical analysis of USD/CHF for January 25, 2016

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The upside movement is expected to prevail in USD/CHF. The pair remains on the upside, supported by its ascending 20-period and 50-period moving averages. The relative strength index is also bullish above its neutrality area at 50. Furthermore, the nearest support at 1.0110 should limit any downside room, and call for a new bounce. To sum up, breaches above 1.0110 (our trailing stop loss) will lead to further upsides to 1.0175 and 1.0215 in extension.

Trading recommendations:

The pair is trading above its pivot point. It is likely to trade in a wider range as long as it remains above its pivot point. As long as the price holds above its pivot point, long positions are recommended with the first target at 1.0175 and the second target at 1.0215. In the alternative scenario, short positions are recommended with the first target at 1.0065 if the price moves below its pivot points. A break of this target is likely to push the pair further downwards, and one may expect the second target at 1.0030. The pivot point is at 1.0110.

Resistance levels: 1.0175, 1.0215,1.0245

Support levels: 1.0065,1.0030, 0.9990

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Technical analysis of NZD/USD for January 25, 2016

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NZD/USD is turning down. The pair reversed down after the recent downside breakout of the support of its 50-period moving average. The 20-period moving average is turning down, and also crossed below the 50-period one. The nearest resistance at 0.6520 keeps placing prices under strong selling pressure. Last but not least, the relative strength index is badly directed, without showing any reversal signs. Hence, as long as 0.6520 holds on the upside, look for further decline to 0.6410 and 0.6370 in extension.

Trading recommendations:

The pair is trading below its pivot point. It is likely to trade in a lower range as long as it remains below the pivot point. Short positions are recommended with the first target at 0.6410. A break of that target will move the pair further downwards to 0.6350. The pivot point stands at 0.6520. In case the price moves in the opposite direction and bounces back from the support level, it will move above its pivot point. It is likely to move further to the upside. According to that scenario, long positions are recommended with the first target at 0.6550 and the second target at 0.6610.

Resistance levels: 0.6550, 0.6610, 0.6650

Support levels: 0.6410, 0.6350, 0.63

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Technical analysis of GBP/JPY for January 25, 2016

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GBP/JPY is expected to trade in a higher range as bias remains bullish. The pair stands above its key support at 167.80 and remains on the upside. The 20-period moving average stays above its 50-period one, while the relative strength index lacks downward momentum. Further upside is therefore expected with the next horizontal resistance and overlap set at 170.60 at first. A break above this level would call for further advance towards 171.40 in extension.

Trading Recommendations:

The pair is trading above its pivot point. It is likely to trade in a wider range as long as it remains above its pivot point. As long as the price holds above its pivot point, long positions are recommended with the first target at 170.60 and the second target at 171.40. In the alternative scenario, short positions are recommended with the first target at 166.80 if the price moves below its pivot points. A break of this target is likely to push the pair further downwards, and one may expect the second target at 166.15. The pivot point is at 167.80.

Resistance levels: 170.60, 171.40, 172

Support levels: 166.80, 166.15, 165.50

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