Intraday technical levels and trading recommendations for GBP/USD for June 24, 2016

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Since January 2016, bullish persistence above 1.4500 was mandatory to maintain enough bullish strength in the market.

However, the previous weekly candlesticks maintained their bearish persistence below the depicted weekly supply zone (below 1.4470), which allowed further bearish decline to occur.

The prominent demand level located at 1.3845 (historical bottom that goes back to March 2009) provided a significant bullish rejection and a bullish engulfing weekly candlestick on February 26.

Bullish fixation above 1.4670 allowed further bullish advancement initially towards 1.4950 (weekly supply) where significant bearish rejection was expressed.

Currently, the price zone between 1.3845 and 1.3550 (historical bottoms in January 2009) constitutes a significant demand zone to be watched for a valid buy entry.

On the other hand, bearish persistence below the demand level at 1.3550 allows further bearish decline towards 1.3050 (bearish projection target).

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Gold analysis for June 24, 2016

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Since our previous analysis, gold has been trading upwards. As I expected, the price tested the level of $1,358.21 in a ultra high volume. In reaction of massive buying climax from the top, the price managed to go into bearish correction and the Gold tested $1,306.00. According to the 15M time frame, I found strong upward pressure and broken falling wedge formation (bullish pattern). My advice is to watch for buying opportunities on the dips. The first take profit level is set at the price of $1,357.00.

Daily Fibonacci pivot points:

Resistance levels:

R1: 1,273.15

R2: 1.278.00

R3: 1,285.00

Support levels:

S1: 1,257.60

S2: 1,252.80

S3: 1,245.00

Trading recommendations for today: Selling gold looks risky at this stage. So, watch for potential buying opportunities.

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EUR/NZD analysis for June 24, 2016

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Recently, EUR/NZD has been moving sideways at the price of 1.5700. According to the 30M time frame, I found trading range between the price of 1.5860 and 1.5575. The trend is downward and my advice to look only for selling opportunities. I found rejection from SMA100 (1h) and SMA 200 (30M). If the price breaks the level of 1.5575 in a high volume, we may see downward continuation and potential testing of 1.5500.

Fibonacci Pivot Points:

Resistance levels:

R1: 1.5780

R2: 1.5820

R3: 1.5880

Support levels:

S1: 1.5660

S2: 1.5620

S3: 1.5560

Trading recommendations for today: Watch for selling opportunities on the pullbacks.

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Technical analysis of NZD/USD for June 24, 2016

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Overview:

  • The NZD/USD pair continues to move downwards from the level of 0.7273. Yesterday, the pair dropped from the level of 0.7273 to the bottom around 0.6977. But the pair has rebounded from the bottom of 0.6977 to close at 0.7066. Today, the first resistance level is seen at 0.7130, the price is moving in a bearish channel now. Furthermore, the price has been set below the strong resistance at the level of 0.7130, which coincides with the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level. This resistance has been rejected several times confirming the veracity of a downtrend. Additionally, the RSI starts signaling a downward trend. So, the daily support is seen at 0.7034. As a result, if the NZD/USD pair is able to break out the first support at 0.7034, the market will decline further to 0.6962 in order to test the double bottom in the H1 time frame. Consequently, the market is likely to show signs of a bearish trend. Thus, it will be good to sell below the level of 0.7107 with the first target at 0.6962 and further to 0.6904. However, stop loss is to be placed above the level of 0.7160.

Forecast:

  • Sell deals are recommended below the level of 0.7107 with the first target at 0.7034 . If the trend breaks the support level of 0.7034, the pair is likely to move downwards continuing the development of a bearish trend to the level 0.6962 and 0.6904..
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Technical analysis of USD/CHF for June 24, 2016

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Overview:

  • Yesterday the market saw a lot of volatility because of the UK vote. Therefore, the USD/CHF pair continues to move upwards from the level of 0.9863. Yesterday, the pair rose from the level of 0.9521 to a top around 0.9789. Currently price is seen at the level of 0.9739. Today, the first resistance level is seen at 0.9789 followed by 0.9855, while daily support 1 is seen at 0.9686 (38.2% Fibonacci retracement). Amid to the previous events, the USD/CHF pair is still moving between the levels of 0.9686 and 0.9789; This would suggest a bearish market because the RSI indicator is still in a positive spot and does not show any trend-reversal signs. The pair is expected to rise higher towards at least 0.9789 so as to test the daily resistance. Moreover, if a breakout takes place at the resistance level of 0.9855, then the trend will continue for a strong bullish market towards the next target 0.9855. Overall, we still prefer the bullish scenario which suggests that the pair will stay above the zone of 0.9686.
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Elliott wave analysis of EUR/NZD for June 24 - 2016

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Wave summary:

We have seen the expected decline to 1.5604 (the low has been seen at 1.5545), which has completed wave (i), and we are now looking for a corrective rally in wave (ii) towards 1.6005 and maybe even closer to 1.6115 before this correction comes to an end. A new impulsive decline in wave (iii) lower towards 1.4702 is expected.

Trading recommendation:

Nice profit taken at 1.5625. We will be looking for new selling opportunities in the 1.6005 - 1.6115 area.

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Elliott wave analysis of EUR/JPY for June 24 - 2016

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Wave summary:

The UK voted itself out of the EU, and risk aversion favored the USD and especially the JPY. We will not say that this was a black swan, but the excessive moves in the JPY certainly weren't a natural outcome from the Brexit.

The strong decline below 115.46 calls for more downside pressure towards the 104.16 - 106.03 area before the long-term correction from 149.56 finally comes to an end.

In the short term, we will be looking for resistance at 115.46. If this resistance breaks, the next resistance will be seen at 117.35 before the price moves lower again.

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Technical analysis of USDX for June 24, 2016

The dollar strengthened yesterday because of the result in the UK referendum. The result pushed traders to buy the Dollar against major currencies like the Pound and Euro. The only Dollar pair that weakened was relative to JPY.

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Red line - resistance (broken)

The Dollar index has broken above the red trend line resistance and the Kumo (cloud). This breakout is an important event as no one expected the result of the referendum to be a BREXIT. However, the chances of a rate hike in 2017 are now zero, and this could put some pressure on the Dollar, but overall, the weakness in the Euro and the Pound are affecting the index positively.

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As I said in my previous analysis, Dollar bulls needed a sharp rise above the weekly Kumo and above the red downward sloping trend line resistance. The result of the referendum was the main trigger for this upward move. The price is now testing the weekly Kijun-sen (yellow line indicator). A break above the weekly cloud will be a very bullish signal that will target new highs for the index.The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Technical analysis of Gold for June 24, 2016

Gold price broken to new highs after the results of the UK's EU referendum. As I mentioned yesterday, the technical view on Gold was that a bounce should follow at least towards $1,280, and there were also many chances that the entire decline was over at the $1,250-60 area.

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Blue lines - bearish channel

Gold has broken out of the short-term bearish channel and the Kumo resistance. This upward spike is a very significant bullish sign that has trapped many bears. Gold is expected to move sideways around $1,320-50 and continue higher towards $1,400-$1,500 over the coming days.

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Red lines - bearish divergence

Despite the bearish divergence signs, I said yesterday that a new high was very probable. The warning from the bearish divergence remains but it is not a sell signal. The price was holding above the weekly tenkan-sen (red line indicator), and the result of the referendum was the trigger to spike higher. As I have been saying for the last few months, I remain longer-term bullish in Gold.

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Daily analysis of major pairs for June 24, 2016

EUR/USD: There is a Bullish Confirmation Pattern on the EUR/USD 4-hour chart: the EMA 11 is above the EMA 56, and the Williams' % Range period 20 is now around the overbought region. The price could now target the resistance lines at 1.1450 and 1.1500. However, the events affecting the Cable could also affect the EUR/USD today, bringing more bullish movement or bringing a decline.

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USD/CHF: This currency trading instrument remains flat, but a serious breakout will soon happen. The nature of the breakout would be determined by whatever happens to the EUR/USD. In case the EUR/USD goes upwards, the USD/CHF would decline; and vice versa.

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GBP/USD: GBP/USD has gone upward by over 450 pips this week. As of Thursday, the market was in a bullish mode, but the movement today would be determined by the results of Brexit/Bremain votes. Bremain would enable the GBP/USD to go upwards by at least, 300 pips today and next week. Brexit would cause strong panic selling across GBP pairs, not the GBP/USD only.

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USD/JPY: This pair rallied yesterday, moving upwards by 200 pips that day and testing the supply level at 106.00. A movement above the supply level at 107.00 would result in a new bullish signal; but a failure to do this could result in bearish movement, which would mean that the current rally has simply been an opportunity to sell short at a better price.

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EUR/JPY: This cross rallied significantly on June 23, 2016. The EMA 11 is now above the EMA 56 (it has crossed above it), while the RSI period 14 is above the level 50. The price is supposed to go higher, unless Brexit becomes emphasized, which would result in a large pullback.

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Global macro overview for 24/06/2016

Global macro overview for 24/06/2016:

A mixed bag of data regarding the Eurozone flash PMI's was released yesterday. For the whole EU, only the Manufacturing PMI has beaten the expectations raising to 52.6 points, a 1.1 point more than the previous month's reading and 1.2 points more than the expected number. The Services PMI for the whole EU was worse than expected and worse than a month ago with 52.4 points, 1.1 points less than a month ago and 1.2 points less than the expected number. The Composite PMI disappointed as well, bringing only 52.8 points, 0.3 points less than a month ago and still below the expectations. Only the German Manufacturing PMi was better than expected and better than a month ago, the rest of the indicators from all over the EU were worse than expected. In conclusion, the business conditions and the general health of the EU economy has deteriorated a little, but still, there is no sign of a deep recession, and the next month's indicators are expected to be better than the current ones.

Let's now take a look at the EUR/USD technical picture on the 4H time frame. After the UK referendum vote, this pair is moving down, and the new lower low has been made as well. The golden trend line has been violated, and it will act as a resistance together with the level of 1.1097. It looks like the bears have control over this market, so the next support is seen at the levels of 1.0911 and 1.0821.

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Global macro overview for 24/06/2016

Global macro overview for 24/06/2016:

In this historic day, it looks like the United Kingdom has voted to leave the European Union after being the member since 1973. The non-official poll results based on data from areas that have already reported are: Remain camp 48.5%, Leave camp 51.5% after 184 regions out of 398 have been counted. This result might change a little over the next few hours, but it is almost certain the UK will not be an EU member anymore.

Let's now take a look at the GBP/USD technical picture on the daily time frame. The Cable slumped -9.8897% to $1.3329, the lowest it's been against the dollar since 1985. The monthly support at the level of 1.3500 has been broken as well, and now it will act as a resistance. The next resistance is seen at the levels of 1.3835 and 1.4015.

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Technical analysis of EUR/JPY for June 24, 2016

General overview for 24/06/2016:

The bullish count has been invalidated after the first non-official UK referendum results, so now let's take a look at the higher time frames to determine the most probable further outlook for this market. Since the top at 141.05, the market has been moving down in a corrective manner indicating a possible wave C of the overall corrective structure in wave 2. Currently, the level of 109.50 has been reached in a form of a spike down, but even this level might not be the end of the wave C. Nevertheless, the wave C is close to completion, and the uptrend should resume immediately after this corrective structure is done.

Support/Resistance:

109.50 - Local Low

111.98 - WS3

112.82 - WS2

115.06 - WS1

115.48 - Intraday Resistance

117.72 - Weekly Pivot

Trading recommendations:

All swing sell orders should be closed because the market might be at the turning point when the bigger time frame cycles have bottomed and a new impulsive cycle to the upside might start any time soon.

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Technical analysis of USD/CAD for June 24, 2016

General overview for 24/06/2016:

The sharp move upward looks like the wave 3 beginning, so the intraday resistance at the level of 1.3085 will likely be broken rather soon. The next important resistance is at the level of 1.3188, and it surely will be the next target for bulls if the level of 1.3085 gets violated.

Support/Resistance:

1.2654 - Wave X Bottom

1.2678 - WS1

1.2818 - 61% Fibo

1.2858 - Intraday Support

1.2881 - Weekly Pivot

1.3015 - WR1

1.3085 - Wave 1 Top | Intraday Resistnace|

Trading recommendations:

The first impulsive wave has been made after a long-term corrective cycle bottomed, so the bias is to the upside. Buying dips in this market with SL below the level of 1.2654 is the way to trade it now.

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Technical analysis of EUR/USD for June 24, 2016

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When the European market opens, some economic news will be released such as Italian Retail Sales m/m and German Ifo Business Climate. The US will release economic data too such as Revised UoM Inflation Expectations, Revised UoM Consumer Sentiment, Durable Goods Orders m/m, and Core Durable Goods Orders m/m. So amid the reports, EUR/USD will move with medium volatility during this day. TODAY'S TECHNICAL LEVELS: Breakout BUY Level: 1.1316. Strong Resistance: 1.1295. Original Resistance: 1.1262. Inner Sell Area: 1.1229. Target Inner Area: 1.1148. Inner Buy Area: 1.1067. Original Support: 1.1034. Strong Support: 1.1001. Breakout SELL Level: 1.0980. Disclaimer: Trading Forex (foreign exchange) on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.

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Technical analysis of USD/JPY for June 24, 2016

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In Asia, Japan will release the SPPI y/y and BOJ Summary of Opinions. The US will release some economic data such as Revised UoM Inflation Expectations, Revised UoM Consumer Sentiment, Durable Goods Orders m/m, and Core Durable Goods Orders m/m. So there is a probability the USD/JPY will move with medium volatility during this day.

TODAY'S TECHNICAL LEVELS:

Resistance. 3: 106.57.

Resistance. 2: 105.58.

Resistance. 1: 104.61.

Support. 1: 103.38.

Support. 2: 102.41.

Support. 3: 101.42.

Disclaimer: Trading Forex (foreign exchange) on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.

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EUR/USD Trading Recommendation (1 week view) for 24th June 2016 (update)

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The price has made a push down to 1.1200 level channel support and holds above our RSI support really well. This represents a really good level to take an entry at with a good risk-to-reward ratio.

Trading recommendations:

Buy now

Stop loss at 1.1080

Take profit at 1.1500 and at 1.1640

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AUD/NZD trading recommendation for 24th June 2016

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The price reached our target at 1.0550 perfectly yesterday and saw a reaction off it. Now we look to buy on ascending support at 1.0425 for a rise to 1.0525/1.0550 again.

Trading recommendations:

Buy at 1.0425 level

Take profit at 1.0550 and 1.0525

Stop loss at 1.0400

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Daily analysis of USDX for June 24, 2016

USDX is looking to test the support zone of 93.02, where a rebound should happen if bulls gain strength in coming hours, after the Brexit referendum's polls are closed. However, the overall scenario remains bearish, as long as the Index keeps trading below the 200 SMA on the H1 chart, and a breakout below the 93.02 level will open the doors to test the 92.73 level.

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H1 chart's resistance levels: 93.43 / 93.82

H1 chart's support levels: 93.02 / 92.73

Trading recommendations for today: Based on the H1 chart, place sell (short) orders only if the USD Index breaks with a bearish candlestick; the resistance level is at 93.02, take profit is at 92.73, and stop loss is at 93.33.

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Daily analysis of GBP/USD for June 24, 2016

GBP/USD has been moving into a very strong bullish bias during the Referendum's day, and it's expected to be still favored by the bulls, as the latest polls showed that the odds are favoring for a "Remain" option as the winner. The technical picture is showing an upside slope by the 200 SMA on the H1 chart, and the MACD indicator remains solid in positive territory. Should the Cable break below the 1.4759 level, in order to invalidate the upside scenario, it could decline towards the 200 SMA price zone.

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H1 chart's resistance levels: 1.5016 / 1.5105

H1 chart's support levels: 1.4906 / 1.4759

Trading recommendations for today: We don't recommend to hold positions on GBP/USD today because of the Brexit Referendum's final results.

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Global macro overview for 23/06/2016

Global macro analysis for 23/06/2016:

All eyes are nervously following today's Brexit vote in the UK. After a bitter and hard-fought campaign, millions of Britons are voting on whether the country remains in the EU or exits it. Most polls show a neck-and-neck race between the Remain and Leave camps, so undecided voters will likely swing the vote and determine the final outcome. However, there is clearly a discrepancy between the polls and the market mood as market sentiment keeps leaning towards a victory of the Remain camp. The British pound keeps rallying all across the board.

Let us now take a look at the GBP/USD technical picture on the daily time frame. Another higher high has been made at the level of 1.4946 today, it might change once the votes from all over the UK are counted. So far bulls are in control over this market.

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Global macro overview for 23/06/2016

Global macro analysis for 23/06/2016:

Weekly jobless claims data from the US labor market have been published and it was better than expected. The number of Americans filing for unemployment benefits last week dropped by 18,000 to 259,000 in the period ended June 18. It was the biggest decrease since the first week of February. The median forecast in a Bloomberg survey called for a decline to 270,000. Moreover, the number of people continuing to receive jobless benefits decreased by 20,000 to 2.14 million in the week ended June 11. The unemployment rate among people eligible for benefits was held at 1.6 percent. In conclusion, another evidence has been presented that the labor market is healthy and stable.

Let us take a look at the US Dollar index technical picture on the daily time frame. Bears have managed to break out below the important support at the level of 93.42. The next support is seen at the level of 91.92. If this support is broken, then bears are in full control over this market.

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Daily analysis of Gold for June 23, 2016

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Overview

The gold price shows slight negative trading gradually heading towards our awaited target at 1,243.17 as the price is affected by the previously completed triple top pattern. The mentioned level represents the full target of the negative pattern, which means that the chances to resume the main bullish trend again will be valid. Therefore, the bearish bias is temporarily expected during the upcoming sessions unless breaking the 1,243.17 level and holding below it. This will extend the bearish wave to 1,205.80 as the next main station; while a breach of 1,278.00 levels represents a positive factor that will allow the price to recover and regain its main bullish track. The expected trading range for today is between the 1,243.17 support and the 1,280.00 resistance.

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Daily analysis of Silver for June 23, 2016

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Overview

The silver price shows clear bullish attempts now moving away from the EMA 50, thus supporting our expectations for bullish trend continuation today. Its first target is at 18.00. Therefore, the bullish trend scenario will remain valid and active for the upcoming period. It might be preceded by some slight bearish bias affected by stochastic negativity before resuming the expected rise, which targets begin at 18.00 and extend to 18.63. The expected trading range for today is between the 17.00 support and the 18.00 resistance.

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Technical analysis of USD/CAD for June 23, 2016

General overview for 23/06/2016:

The bottom for the wave 2 seems to be in place at the level of 1.2678, so the market should try to break out higher above the intraday resistance at the level of 1.2858. Moreover, the growing bullish divergence between the price and momentum oscillator is indicating a possible sharp move upward, which supports the view regarding the upward trend renewal.

Support/Resistance:

1.2654 - Wave X Bottom

1.2678 - WS1

1.2818 - 61%Fibo

1.2860 - Intraday Resistance

1.2881 - Weekly Pivot

1.3015 - WR1

1.3080 - Wave 1 Top

Trading recommendations:

The first impulsive wave has been made after a long-term corrective cycle bottomed, so the bias is to the upside. Buying dips in this market with SL below the level of 1.2654 is the way to trade it now.

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Technical analysis of EUR/JPY for June 23, 2016

General overview for 23/06/2016:

The level of 119.47 has been violated, so now the alternative count is in charge. According to this count, the bottom for the wave Z brown of the overall corrective cycle is now in place at the level of 115.48 and the market should continue moving higher. The next important level would be the intraday resistance at the level of 121.06.

Support/Resistance:

115.06 - WS1

115.48 - Local Low

117.72 - Weekly Pivot

119.46 - Intraday Support

119.94 - WR1

121.06 - Intraday Resistance

122.54 - WR2

124.18 - Wave X Top

Trading recommendations:

All swing sell orders should be closed because the market might be at the turning point when the bigger time frame cycles have bottomed and a new impulsive cycle to the upside might have started.

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