GBP / USD: plan for the US session on November 29. The pound fell after the report of the Bank of England

To open long positions on GBP / USD, you need:

In the morning, pound buyers failed to hold positions, which led to a quick sale. The Bank of England report on Brexit did not clarify. At the moment, it is best to expect long positions after the update of support of 1.2746, with the formation of a false breakdown there or a rebound from a minimum of 1.2721. The main task will be a breakthrough and consolidation above the resistance of 1.2788, which will lead to a return to the highs of the day at 1.2835, where I recommend fixing the profits.

To open short positions on GBP / USD, you need:

An unsuccessful consolidation after the correction to the resistance of 1.2788 will be another signal to open short positions in the pound in order to reduce and breakdown support of 1.2746, which will lead to a quick sale to the area of the minimum of 1.2721, where I recommend fixing the profit. In case of growth above 1.2788 in the second half of the day, you can sell a pound to rebound from the daily maximum in the area of resistance 1.2835.

Indicator signals:

Moving Averages

Trade is conducted in the area of 30 and 50-day moving averages, which indicates another market uncertainty.

Bollinger bands

In the case of an upward correction of the pound in the second half of the day, the average border of the Bollinger Bands indicator in the area of 1.2750, located in the area of 1.2815 and from which you can sell the pound immediately to rebound, will act as resistance.

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Description of indicators

MA (moving average) 50 days - yellow

MA (moving average) 30 days - green

MACD: fast EMA 12, slow EMA 26, SMA 9

Bollinger Bands 20

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EUR / USD: plan for the US session on November 29. Euro is falling for a new leap up

To open long positions on EUR / USD, you need:

The buyers retreated from the market after yesterday's rapid growth, but only to build the lower boundary of the new ascending channel. For the second half of the day, the task is to break through and fix above the resistance of 1.1385, which will return the demand for the euro and lead to the update of the new highs of 1.1423 and 1.1468, where I recommend fixing the profits. In the case of a re-decline of the euro to the support area of 1.1348, it is best to open long positions from there when forming a false breakdown. Otherwise, you can buy EUR / USD for a rebound from 1.1310.

To open short positions on EUR / USD, you need:

As long as trading is below the resistance of 1.1385, the pressure on the euro will continue, and the release of weak inflation data in Germany may again return EUR / USD to the low of the day with a repeated support test of 1.1348, a breakthrough of which will lead to a new sale to the area of 1.1310, where I recommend fixing the profit. If the euro rises above 1.1385 in the second half of the day, it is best to consider short positions on a rebound from the maximum of 1.1423.

Indicator signals:

Moving Averages

Trade is conducted above the 30 and 50-day moving averages, which indicates the further formation of an upward correction.

Bollinger bands

The volatility of the Bollinger Bands indicator fell, which led to the absence of signals for entering the market.

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Description of indicators

MA (moving average) 50 days - yellow

MA (moving average) 30 days - green

MACD: fast EMA 12, slow EMA 26, SMA 9

Bollinger Bands 20

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

In December, the pound may soar above $ 1.43

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According to NatWest Markets, a subsidiary of Royal Bank of Scotland Group, this year, the pound sterling rate may rise to $ 1.43 and higher if the uncertainty surrounding the UK's exit from the European Union is resolved.

"The British currency is a liquid asset that gives a positive return and has an attractive price. In addition, there is a large unmet demand for British currency from central banks and sovereign wealth funds," said representatives of the firm.

"In addition, the UK is one of the few countries that have a large economy and welcomes attracting foreign investment in large volumes," they added.

According to experts, the pound is currently undervalued against most G10 currencies in terms of OECD purchasing power parity.

Today, the British currency fell sharply against the dollar amid Prime Minister Theresa May's statement that if Parliament does not support it, the country will have to withdraw from the EU without a deal.

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The final vote on the "divorce" agreement should be held in the House of Commons on December 11. If the lawmakers do not approve the deal, then this may lead to early parliamentary elections or even a second Brexit referendum.

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BITCOIN Analysis for November 29, 2018

Bitcoin has been quite volatile at the edge of $4,250 area from where the price is currently starting to push higher by breaching above 200 EMA. The price is currently being held by the dynamic levels of 20 EMA, Tenkan, and Kijun line which indicates further bullish pressure which might lead the price towards $4,500 and later towards $5,000 area in the coming days. Additionally, Kumo Cloud has been quite wider with a bullish aspect which also suggests further bullish momentum in the nearest days. As the price remains above $4,250 area with a daily close, further bullish pressure is expected in the coming days.

SUPPORT: 3,500, 4,000, 4,250

RESISTANCE: 4,500, 5,000

BIAS: BULLISH

MOMENTUM: VOLATILE

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The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Gold is in high demand among European investors

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According to the observations of experts, the yellow metal causes a keen interest among European investors and is actively acquired by them. According to a survey by the investment company Legg Mason, about 1/4 of investors in Germany, Italy, Switzerland and the UK consider investing in gold to be very profitable. They view the precious metal as an investment in the next 12 months.

Many investors are planning to invest at least 10,000 euros in gold bars next year. The most active interest in gold was demonstrated by investors in Germany and Switzerland, noted in Legg Mason. In favor of buying the yellow metal among the respondents in these countries expressed 30% and 27%, respectively. However, the leaders among the facilities for investing free funds are not gold, but the securities of the national companies of Germany and Switzerland, experts underline.

In the UK, a number of investors, namely 22% of respondents, approve the purchase of gold for the purpose of investing and making a profit. In the US, the number of supporters of the purchase of the yellow metal does not exceed 18%. Most market participants are interested in acquiring precious metals to preserve their savings, analysts sum up.

According to Legg Mason, the head of sales, general optimism about the prospects for the yellow metal may not be justified. He recalled that while investors view gold as an asset "safe haven", the precious metal does not bring interest income like other assets. In the current year, the yellow metal is unlikely to bring tangible income, the analyst believes. Many experts also do not observe serious drivers of growth in gold prices in the short term.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Powell changes the balance of power for the dollar and stock market

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The dollar fell sharply and aggressively, continuing to decline on Thursday after Jerome Powell announced that interest rates were "slightly below" the neutral level.

Undoubtedly, the comments indicate a significant change in the position of the head of the Fed. In October, he said that the regulator is still "far from neutral rates." What has changed in a month? The Fed has figured out what kind of rate is neutral, or the Central Bank considers it necessary to pause the tightening of the policy. The second option is closer to the truth since the macroeconomic data is deteriorating, the stock market is declining, and the fall in oil and gas slows down inflation. Therefore, there is no longer a need for regular rate increases.

Powell's comments were unexpected and took the currency market traders by surprise, as well as stock market investors who rushed to close short positions, provoking the strongest Dow day rally in the last 8 months. Due to the growth of more than 600 points, the price has significantly risen with a high beta coefficient, Australian and New Zealand dollars, the British pound and the euro.

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Powell is still confident in the stable growth of the country's economy in conditions of low unemployment and inflation of about 2%. However, official comments in the context of the recent dynamics of the US stock market and data indicate that, in his opinion, a too rapid rate hike will slow US GDP growth. The market is already feeling the consequences of tightening policy, the head of the regulator said.

In early November, futures on federal funds rates took into account the December tightening policy. Next, there should be a pause until March. To date, expectations have not changed. In essence, with the chances of raising rates in March at 40% and 56% in June, the curve predicts only one tightening in the new year, while the Central Bank talks about three rounds. It is worth emphasizing once again that market participants adhered to this point of view at the beginning of November, which means Powell's comments did not greatly influence their expectations. However, Powell provided traders in the foreign exchange market with the opportunity to sell an overbought dollar and buyback sharply cheaper stocks.

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It is clear that now, the dollar market can undergo drastic changes. But do not forget about external factors that determine the dynamics of other currencies. Economic growth in the eurozone continues to slow, and recent comments by the ECB President Mario Draghi were pessimistic. China still has trade disputes with the United States, and the risk of harsh Brexit prevents traders from buying a pound. Often, the dynamics of other currencies determines the increased appetite of players for the dollar.

In addition to Powell, there are other officials at the Fed who are worried about the too rapid pace of policy tightening. If the tone of the next FOMC statement is changed, investors may forget about the dollar rally. Releases on income and expenditure of individuals, as well as FOMC protocols, will be an important test for Greenback. The sale of the dollar will intensify when data is released worse than expected, or if the protocol shows a cautious approach by the Central Bank.

They see no reasons for strengthening the dollar and analysts of the Japanese investment company Shinkin Asset Management. According to them, in the next six months, economic data for the United States will begin to confirm Powell's words, which will mean the end of the rate growth cycle.

Now, the US economy is still stable, and the dollar maintains relative calm on the eve of the G20 summit. Negotiations between the presidents of the United States and China may lead to a truce in the trade war between world giants.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

The American market is positive - an opinion

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According to experts, the speech of US Federal Reserve Head Jerome Powell, held on Wednesday, November 28, created favorable conditions for the American market. A positive attitude is expected to help lift it.

The head of the American regulator noted that current interest rates are below the mark that the Fed considers neutral. J. Powell believes that the American economy is close to full employment. The head of the regulator went around the topic of the interest rate increase at the December Fed meeting, without confirming anything and refuting it. In the statements of J. Powell, the market saw an allusion to the easing of monetary policy by the Fed.

On Wednesday, the US stock exchanges closed positively. On Thursday, November 29, futures for US indices fell significantly. Futures for the S & P index fell by 0.3%, and for the Dow index, by similar 0.3%.

On the Asian stock exchanges was recorded multidirectional dynamics. On the one hand, the APR markets are gradually growing, and on the other, they are falling due to the protracted US-Chinese trade conflict. The coming G20 summit in Argentina, which is scheduled to meet Donald Trump and Xi Jinping, is a source of alarm and uncertainty.

Experts record a strong subsidence of the commodity market. The cost of Brent crude fell below $ 60 a barrel. It is at $ 59 a barrel. The reason for the fall of analysts believes the US Department of Energy data on stocks, which over the past week increased by 3.6 million barrels, with a forecast of growth to 0.8 million barrels. According to experts, this is the tenth week of growth in oil production in America.

Large market participants are more doubtful about the ability of OPEC to influence the situation with raw materials. The reason for this was the next increase in reserves and an increase in oil production in countries such as the United States, Russia, and Saudi Arabia. The attention of the traders is focused on the upcoming meetings of the committees of OPEC and OPEC +, which will be held in early December 2018 in Vienna. Following the meeting, market participants expect news of a decision to reduce oil production to establish a balance in the market.

The overall picture of what is happening today is formed by news from the G20 summit in Argentina. The attention of market players is focused on the meeting of the US President with Chinese leader Xi Jinping and Russian President Vladimir Putin. Geopolitics, on which the future of the world economy depends, the mood on the market again determines, experts sum up.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

The fateful week for the dollar. What factors will influence?

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The dollar is losing ground after Fed Chairman Jerome Powell said that interest rates are already "slightly below neutral," investors took these words as a signal that the rate hike cycle is nearing its end.

Powell's remarks took the currency markets by surprise, as he noted that rates at the level of 2-2.25 percent are now "slightly below" the neutral range, which in September was 2.5-3.5 percent. Recall that in October, he considered the rates "far from neutral." The official's speech led to a weakening of the dollar in all directions, especially compared to more risky currencies, such as the Australian and New Zealand dollars. Some emerging market currencies, such as the South African rand and the Turkish lira, also showed growth.

Now, the main question is how true the expectations of growth rates will be. Now, investors predict a rate hike in December and just one more increase in 2019. For completeness, I advise you to wait for the publication of the minutes of the meeting of the Central Bank of the United States from November 7-8.

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It is believed that a pause in the rate increase is necessary. Economic data has weakened, stocks are shrinking, oil and gas prices are falling, and not stimulating inflation. As a result, successive rate increases can be interrupted. In general, Powell noted the obvious things that the market is already beginning to feel. Traders need to be careful about creating aggressive short positions, given the upcoming G20 summit on Friday and Saturday, where US President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping are planning to discuss controversial issues. If negotiations do not lead to a deal, the dollar may again catch the wave against the backdrop of rising demand for safe assets.

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Casus Powell: Has the market correctly interpreted the words of the Fed Chairman?

The currency market sometimes presents surprises when the fundamental picture changes its color dramatically. It also happens when the market only interprets events from a certain angle, changing the direction of the main currency pairs. A similar situation happened yesterday.

Throughout the week, the EUR / USD pair was under constant pressure, which during the trading session either increased or weakened slightly but on the whole, it was stable. Nervousness over China, uncertainty with Brexit and the Italian budget, rising key indicators of the American economy, hawkish statements by Fed members and rising yields of 10-year treasures. All these factors dragged the pair down to the 12th figure base. Such a unipolar fundamental background made it possible to make well-founded forecasts, the essence of which was to continue the downward movement, at least until the outcome of the G20 summit.

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As it turned out, traders were looking only for a reason to deploy EUR / USD. At least in the context of a corrective pullback. Such a pretext appeared yesterday, although its validity raises big questions. We are talking about yesterday's speech by Fed Chairman Jerome Powell, which caused a wide resonance in the financial world. The fact is that Powell has recently quite consistently taken a "moderately hawkish" position, optimistically assessing the prospects for the US economy, and accordingly, the dynamics of tightening monetary policy. Not so long ago, he said a capacious phrase that characterized his policy, "The market must get used to the idea that the interest rate will continue to increase gradually". Many of his colleagues spoke in the same vein, in the overwhelming majority they shared the position of their "boss".

That is why Powell's statement yesterday that the interest rate was "directly below the neutral level" caused a great surprise in the markets. After all, even in October, the Fed chief stated unequivocally that the Fed is still very far from the notorious neutral level and moreover, the regulator may exceed this target if necessary. Building on these words, the market maximized the likelihood of a December rate hike and, accordingly, increased the chances of maintaining the pace of monetary tightening next year (focusing on three increases). But yesterday's Powell speech again mixed all the cards, sowing doubts among dollar bulls. The market was clearly not ready for this turn of events, so the dollar index collapsed in a few hours from 97.42 to 96.55 points, and the euro-dollar pair, respectively, grew by more than 100 points. Today, the market is trading by inertia while maintaining a cautious attitude regarding the US currency.

What explains this "verbal demarche" by Jerome Powell, who is known for his well-balanced and to some extent predictable? On this account, there are several opinions of currency strategists. For the most part, they are confident that the market simply misinterpreted the words of the head of the Fed, or rather, made hasty conclusions, taking his words out of context. After all, Powell, in his speech, clarified that the rates are undervalues that, according to a wide range of estimates, represent a neutral level for the economy. And if we take into account his full phrase, the situation looks drastically different, since the above range is located at elevations of 2.5% -3.5%. This is consistent with his position, which he voiced for a long time (at least for six months).

According to other experts, Jerome Powell intentionally made such a "pigeon" reservation, as the market misunderstood him back in October. According to them, the thesis that "it's still too far to the neutral level" is wrong, and the Fed Chairman just fixed his mistake yesterday. Even in this context, his position does not look soft. As I said above, the approximate range, "inside" of which there can be a neutral level, is quite wide - 2.5% -3.5%. Therefore, even if the current rate approaches this area, this does not mean that the Fed will abandon its original intentions for the next year.

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In general, yesterday's events suggest that the main question of the next year is gradually coming to the fore, when will the process of tightening monetary policy be put on "pause"? Jerome Powell has repeatedly stated that the Fed is still discussing at what level the neutral rate will be reached, this issue is not easy and controversial. By the way, Fed Vice Chairman Richard Clarida, who last week also said that the rate "approached its neutral level," the day before yesterday somewhat toughened the tone of its rhetoric. He clarified that the prospects for tightening monetary policy will depend on incoming macroeconomic data. First of all, the regulator will monitor how the decline in unemployment will affect the increase in inflationary pressure.

Thus, the market reaction to yesterday's speech by Jerome Powell looks exaggerated. The head of the Fed is optimistic about the current state of the US economy and in no way hinted at a forced slowdown in the tightening of monetary policy. The market has made all other conclusions independently, beating Powell's words in his interpretation.

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EUR / USD: Fed will not rush to further increase in US interest rates

Yesterday's data, together with the performance of Fed Chairman Jay Powell, led to a decline in the US dollar against a number of world currencies. Also, the euro strengthened, which steadily declined throughout the week against the US dollar.

Basic data

According to the report, sales in the US primary housing market declined in October. The slowdown in sales growth continues to be observed after rising interest rates in the United States this year, which has complicated access to lending.

According to a report by the US Department of Commerce, sales of new homes in October of this year fell by 8.9% to 544,000 homes per year. Economists had expected sales to grow by 4.0%, to 575,000 homes per year. Data for September has been revised. At that time, growth was reported to 597,000 homes per year compared to 591,000 homes per year in August. Compared to the same period of the previous year, sales fell by 12%.

Data on the growth of the American economy also did not lead to a significant strengthening of the US dollar. According to another estimate, in the 3rd quarter of this year, US GDP grew by 3.5% per annum, while economists expected the economy to show an increase of 3.6%. The data only coincided with the expectations of the Ministry of Commerce.

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Without a doubt, such good performance will clearly help the Fed to make decisions in the direction of further raising interest rates. However, judging by yesterday's speech by the Fed Chairman, this will clearly not be in a hurry in the committee.

Whether the criticism of US President Donald Trump or a slight deterioration in economic performance in recent years has led to a change in the opinion of the Fed Chairman regarding interest rates.

As Jay Powell said yesterday, the US economy is close to full employment and price stability, but the monetary policy trajectory is not predetermined, and the Fed will closely examine economic data.

If earlier Powell said that the interest rate is "far" from the neutral level, then yesterday said that the rate is only "slightly lower" than the neutral level. This suggests that the pace of tightening monetary policy next year may significantly slow down, and this will adversely affect the US dollar rate. Many experts believe that the increase in interest rates can fully manifest itself in the economy only a year or even later.

The Fed Chairman expressed his point of view about lending. In his opinion, household debt obligations are not likely to be a threat if the economic situation worsens, but there are reasons for concern about the corporate sector debt obligations.

The US dollar continued to lose its position even after US President Donald Trump repeated his statement yesterday about the need to introduce 25% tariffs on imported cars. In his opinion, this ensures national security, as the plans of General Motors Co. on the closure of several North American plants may significantly affect the economy and the market as a whole.

As for the technical picture of the EUR / USD pair, further upward movement may be limited by large resistance levels of 1.1420 and 1.1460. In the case of a downward correction, under current conditions, it will be possible to talk about purchases in the area of large support levels of 1.1340 and 1.1310.

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GBP / USD. 29th of November. The trading system. "Regression Channels". Mark Carney scared the markets, but this did not

4-hour timeframe

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Technical details:

The senior linear regression channel: direction - down.

Junior linear regression channel: direction - down.

Moving average (20; smoothed) - sideways.

CCI: 46.0113

The currency pair GBP / USD on Thursday, November 29, falling to the local minimum in the zone of 1.2700 - 1.2720, began an upward movement. It seems that below 1.2700, traders are not ready to open new sales of the pair, at least for now. The moment has come when new compelling reasons are needed for a new decline in the British currency. At the moment, such a reason can only be the failure of the Brexit procedure. And this, in turn, will be possible if the UK parliament blocks Brexit. Thus, we believe that before a vote in the British Parliament, the pound sterling will be in a relatively stable state without new falls. Of course, it is possible the arrival of new disappointing statistics from the Kingdom or other news that will trigger new sales of the pound. But while they are not there, there is a slight pause for the pound. Mark Carney, during his speech yesterday, expressed the opinion that Brexit could deal a severe blow to the economy. However, his words did not cause a new pressure on the pound. It is based on this factor that we believe that the first signs of the completion of the hegemony of the US dollar appear. Now everything will depend on the final stage of the Brexit procedure. If the parliament approves the "deal" with the EU, it will be a strong support for the pound sterling in the medium term.

Nearest support levels:

S1 - 1.2817

S2 - 1.2756

S3 - 1.2695

Nearest resistance levels:

R1 - 1.2878

R2 - 1.2939

R3 - 1.3000

Trading recommendations:

The currency pair GBP / USD has overcome the moving. Therefore, now have become relevant long positions in a pair with the goal of 1.2878. Despite our expectations of a downtrend completion, the pound positions are still very weak, so turning the Heikin Ashi indicator down may mean not only a correction, but also a resumption of the downward trend.

Sell positions can be considered no earlier than price fixing below the moving average line. In this case, the trend in the instrument will change to downward again, and the target for short positions will be the level of 1.2756.

In addition to the technical picture, you should also consider the fundamental data and the time of their release.

Explanations for illustrations:

The senior linear regression channel is the blue lines of the unidirectional movement.

The junior linear channel is the purple lines of the unidirectional movement.

CCI is the blue line in the indicator regression window.

The moving average (20; smoothed) is the blue line on the price chart.

Murray levels - multi-colored horizontal stripes.

Heikin Ashi is an indicator that colors bars in blue or purple.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

EUR / USD. 29th of November. The trading system. "Regression Channels". Powell reassured the markets, but the dollar collapsed.

4-hour timeframe

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Technical details:

The senior linear regression channel: direction - down.

Junior linear regression channel: direction - down.

Moving average (20; smoothed) - sideways.

CCI: 83.7682

The currency pair EUR / USD on Thursday, November 29, fixed above the moving average line. Yesterday's speech by Fed Chairman Jerome Powell could not have caused the collapse of the US currency, since he did not report anything disappointing to the markets. Powell said that the current key rate is slightly below neutral and is still low. That is, the current level of interest cannot be called either stimulating or restrictive. Powell also noted that the future course of monetary policy will depend on macroeconomic indicators. Then the head of the Bank of England Mark Carney delivered a speech, who said that Brexit could deal a serious blow to the UK economy and to serious losses in the GDP indicator. Most likely, Carney was referring to the "disordered" Brexit. These data can be regarded as dangerous for the euro and the pound, but both currencies were shaking yesterday. It is on this basis that we believe that the first signs that the "dollar" trend is nearing its end are beginning to appear. Nevertheless, despite the strength of the American economy, especially in comparison with the European one and against the background of all the problems of Great Britain in recent years, the US dollar cannot rise constantly. Perhaps the moment has come when the mood in the foreign exchange market will change.

Nearest support levels:

S1 - 1.1353

S2 - 1.1292

S3 - 1.1230

Nearest resistance levels:

R1 - 1.1414

R2 - 1.1475

R3 - 1.1536

Trading recommendations:

The EUR / USD currency pair has fixed above the MA. Therefore, at the moment, it is recommended to trade on the increase with the objectives of 1.1414 and 1.1475. Fundamental grounds for the growth of the euro is still a bit, so the upward movement may be short-lived.

Short positions will again become relevant after the price is fixed back below the moving average line and, given the nature of the fundamental data, this is a more likely scenario, despite the strong overbought dollar. The goal in this case will be 1.1292.

In addition to the technical picture, you should also consider the fundamental data and the time of their release.

Explanations for illustrations:

The senior linear regression channel is the blue lines of the unidirectional movement.

The younger linear regression channel is the purple lines of the unidirectional movement.

CCI - blue line in the indicator window.

The moving average (20; smoothed) is the blue line on the price chart.

Murray levels - multi-colored horizontal stripes.

Heikin Ashi is an indicator that colors bars in blue or purple.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

EUR / USD: plan for the European session on November 29. Fed Chairman can slow down with rising interest rates in the US

To open long positions on EUR / USD, you need:

The euro rose strongly yesterday after the Fed chairman signaled that he could stop raising rates earlier than expected or slow down the pace of their increase. The formation of a false breakdown in the area of intermediate support of 1.1374 will be a signal to buy the euro to break through and fix above the resistance of 1.1417, which will lead to a continuation of the uptrend in the maximum area of 1.1468, where I recommend fixing the profits. In the case of a decline below the level of 1.1374, you can take a closer look at long positions around 1.1341 or at a rebound from a minimum of 1.1304.

To open short positions on EUR / USD, you need:

The downtrend is broken. Now, the bears need to return to the support level of 1.1374, which will lead to a downward correction in the area of 1.1341, where I recommend fixing the profits. It will be possible to talk about the return to the market of large sellers only after the test of a minimum of 1.1304. If the uptrend continues, short positions can be considered when forming a false breakdown in the area of 1.1417 or on a rebound from a new maximum of 1.1468.

Indicator signals:

Moving Averages

Trade is conducted above the 30- and 50-day moving averages, which indicates the continuation of the formation of a downtrend. In the case of the euro downward correction, the 30-day average will provide good support.

Bollinger bands

The upward trend in EUR / USD may be limited by the upper border of the Bollinger Bands indicator in the area of 1.1431. In the event of a decline in the euro in the first half of the day, support will be provided by the middle of the indicator in the area of 1.1345, from where you can buy immediately for a rebound.

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Description of indicators

MA (moving average) 50 days - yellow

MA (moving average) 30 days - green

MACD: fast EMA 12, slow EMA 26, SMA 9

Bollinger Bands 20

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Trading Plan for 11/29/2018

At the end of yesterday, the dollar began to rapidly lose its position, and simultaneously with both the pound and the single European currency. Such a development in the foreign exchange market immediately suggests that the matter is either in American statistics or in regular statements and rumors about Brexit. And just one glance at American statistics is enough to understand what happened. On the one hand, the next estimate of GDP for the third quarter reaffirmed the acceleration of economic growth from 2.9% to 3.0%. However, the data on the real estate market is very surprising. Even scared. As home sales in the primary market collapsed by 8.9%, although the expected growth was 3.7%. Add to this is the obvious overbought of the dollar, and everything falls into place.

Do not forget about Brexit. Moreover, rumors began to arrive on Tuesday that the British parliament could vote against the adoption of an agreement with the European Union. Mark Carney spoke on this topic yesterday. The words of the head of the Bank of England can scare anyone, as he directly stated that withdrawal from the European Union would deal a severe blow to the UK economy. According to him, the damage can be estimated at 11% of GDP, and the pound has every chance of falling below parity against the dollar. True, no one listened to him, since so far everyone is experiencing euphoria due to reaching an agreement. Although he has not yet adopted the British Parliament.

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It is difficult to say whether the next statements will be made today about Brexit, so it is worth starting from macroeconomic statistics. Especially since the weakening of the dollar was quite rapid, and a rebound suggests itself. For example, in the UK, there are data on the credit market, and the decline in total consumer lending is projected from 4.7 billion pounds to 4.5 billion pounds. Moreover, the number of approved mortgage applications should be reduced from 65,269 to 64,500. So, there is not much to be a reason for optimism. In the US, however, data on personal income and expenses are published, and both indicators should show an increase of 0.4%. Well, the main event of the day, and possibly the week, will be the publication of the text of the minutes of the meeting of the Federal Commission on Open Market Operations. There is no doubt that it will reflect the intention to increase the refinancing rate in December, and three more times next year. Of course, the market has long ago laid all this in the value of the dollar, but another confirmation of these expectations, and even in the form of official paper, will seriously increase the attractiveness of the dollar.

The euro / dollar currency pair, like the GBP / USD pair, flew up, reaching 1.1391, after which the slowdown process began. Probably assume stagnation, followed by a rollback of 1.1350 - 1.1330.

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The informational and emotional background currency pair pound / dollar soared more than 100 points from the 1.2720 / 1.2770 range level, after which it formed a slight slowdown. It is likely to assume that emotions will subside and we will see a rollback of 1.2800 - 1.2770.

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Intraday technical levels and trading recommendations for GBP/USD for November 29, 2018

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On September 21, the GBP/USD failed to demonstrate sufficient bullish momentum above 1.3296. Since then, the short-term outlook turned to become bearish under the depicted daily downtrend.

On H4 chart, the GBP/USD pair looked oversold around the price levels of 1.2700 where profitable BUY entries were suggested.

A quick bullish movement was demonstrated towards the price level of 1.3170-1.3200 where another descending high around the depicted downtrend was established.

This initiated the current bearish pullback towards the depicted consolidation-zone of (1.2750-1.2880) where the current sideway movement within the depicted H4 channel was initiated.

Recently, the GBP/USD pair failed to establish a successful bullish breakout above the price level of 1.2880 (the upper limit of the current consolidation range).

Moreover, bearish persistence below 1.2790 (79.8% Fibonacci level) allowed a quick bearish decline to occur towards the price zone around 1.2750-1.2730.

The current scenario may pursue a bearish flag continuation pattern provided that bearish persistence below 1.2730 is maintained on a daily basis. The projected target for the bearish flag continuation pattern is initially located around 1.2600.

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Intraday technical levels and trading recommendations for EUR/USD for November 29, 2018

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On the weekly chart, the EUR/USD pair is demonstrating a high-probability Head and Shoulders reversal pattern where the right shoulder is currently in progress.

On the Daily chart, the pair has been moving sideways with slight bearish tendency. Recent bearish movement is maintained within the depicted daily movement channel.

On November 13, the EUR/USD demonstrated recent bullish recovery around 1.1220-1.1250 where the lower limit of the channel as well as the depicted demand zone came to meet the pair.

A quick bullish advance was demonstrated towards 1.1420. To be noted that prominent supply zone as well as the previous wave high are located around 1.1420-1.1520.

Bullish fixation above 1.1420 was needed to enhance further bullish movement towards 1.1520.

However, the market demonstrated significant bearish rejection (shooting-star weekly candlestick). Hence, the EUR/USD pair remains trapped between 1.1270-1.1420.

The EUR/USD pair remains under bearish pressure below 1.1420. The nearest demand level to meet the pair is located around 1.1270 then 1.1170 where the lower limit of the depicted channel is roughly located.

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Technical analysis of USD/CAD for November 29, 2018

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Overview:

The USD/CAD pair continues to move upwards from the level of 1.3216. Yesterday, the pair rose from the level of 1.3216 (the level of 1.3216 coincides with a ratio of 38.2% Fibonacci retracement) to a top around 1.3358 but it rebounbed towards the price of 1.3292. Today, the first resistance level is seen at 1.3358 followed by 1.3413, while daily support 1 is seen at 1.3216. According to the previous events, the USD/CAD pair is still moving between the levels of 1.3216 and 1.3413; for that we expect a range of 197 pips (1.3413 - 1.3216). On the one-hour chart, immediate resistance is seen at 1.3358, which coincides with double top. Currently, the price is moving in a bullish channel. This is confirmed by the RSI indicator signaling that we are still in a bullish trending market. The price is still above the moving average (100), Therefore, if the trend is able to break out through the first resistance level of 1.3358, we should see the pair climbing towards the daily resistance at 1.3413 to test it. It would also be wise to consider where to place stop loss; this should be set below the second support of 1.3216.

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Technical analysis of USD/CHF for November 29, 2018

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Overview:

The USD/CHF pair keeps to trade upwards from the level of 0.9951 on the H4 chart. Today, the first support level is currently seen at 0.9951, the price is moving in a bullish channel now. Furthermore, the price has been set above the strong support at the level of 0.9951, which coincides with the daily pivot point. This support has been rejected three times confirming the veracity of an uptrend. According to the previous events, we expect the USD/CHF pair to trade between 0.9951 and 1.0058. So, the support stands at 0.9951, while daily resistance is found at 1.0058. Therefore, the market is likely to show signs of a bullish trend around the spot of 1.0058. In other words, buy orders are recommended above the spot of 1.0058/0.9951with the first target at the level of 1.0142; and continue towards 1.0216. However, if the USD/CHF pair fails to break through the resistance level of 1.0058 today, the market will decline further to 0.9860.

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Analysis of Gold for November 29, 2018

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Recently, Gold has been trading upwards. The price tested the level of $1,226.00. According to the M15 time – frame, I have fond that price got trouble to trade above yesterday's high at the price of $1,226.00, which is a sign that demand is weak. My advice is to watch for a potential breakout of the support trendline to confirm further bearish momentum. A downward target is set at the price of $1,219.40.

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EUR/USD analysis for November 29, 2018

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Recently, the EUR/USD pair has been trading upwards. The price tested the level of 1.1397. Anyway, according to the M30 time – frame, I have found a fake breakout of yesterday's high at the price of 1.1387, which is a sign that buying looks risky. I have also found LCD (low close doji) pattern, which is another sign of weakness. My advice is to watch for selling opportunities. The downward targets are set at the price of 1.1340 (daily pivot) and at the price of 1.1293 (daily support 1).

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Bitcoin analysis for November 29, 2018

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Trading recommendations:

According to the H1 time - frame, I found that BTC has been trading upwards. The price tested the level of $4.296. I also found that strong resistance at the price of $4.070 now became the support, which is sign that selling looks risky and that buyers are in control. My advice is to watch for buying opportunities. The upward target is set at the price of $4.717.

Support/Resistance

$4.320 – Intraday resistance

$4.070– Intraday support

$4.717 – Objective target

With InstaForex you can earn on cryptocurrency's movements right now. Just open a deal in your MetaTrader4.

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Fundamental Analysis of USD/CHF for November 29, 2018

USD/CHF has been quite impulsive with bearish moves after being rejected off the 0.9980-1.00 resistance area. Amid downbeat economic data from the US, USD struggled to sustain the bullish momentum, while CHF gained without any positive economic reports.

Amid universal expectations of the rate hike by the US Federal Reserve in December, USD has been able to assert strength. Recently FED Chair Powell cleared up the plans of monetary tightening in December for the reason of healthy economic conditions. Today US Core PCE Price Index report is going to be published which is expected to be unchanged at 0.2%, Personal Spending is expected to be unchanged at 0.4%, Personal Income is expected to increase to 0.4% from the previous value of 0.2%, and Unemployment Claims is expected to decrease to 221k from the previous figure of 224k. Additionally, Pending Home Sales is expected to increase to 0.8% from the previous value of 0.5%. Besides, FOMC Member William is due to speak tomorrow on the Fed agenda for further monetary tightening. So, USD may regain its momentum in the coming days.

On the CHF side, recently Credit Suisse Economic Expectations report was published with a decrease to -42.3 from the previous figure of -39.1 which did not quite affect the CHF gains over USD. Today Switzerland's GDP report is going to be published which is expected to decrease to 0.4% from the previous value of 0.7%.

Meanwhile, CHF has been affected by weak economic data, whereas USD is propped up by the strong likelihood of the rate hike. Thus, USD is a more attractive asset for investors. This is leading to further bullish pressure despite certain pullbacks inside the upward bias.

Now let us look at the technical view. The price has recently rejected off the 0.9980-1.00 area with a strong bearish engulfing daily candle which is expected to push the price lower towards 0.9850 from where certain bullish intervention may be observed in the future. As the price remains above 0.9700 area, the bullish bias is expected to continue.

SUPPORT: 0.9700, 0.9850

RESISTANCE: 0.9980-1.00, 1.0050

BIAS: BULLISH

MOMENTUM: VOLATILE

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Fundamental Analysis of EUR/GBP for November 29, 2018

EUR/GBP is currently making a correction above 0.8850 area from where further bullish pressure is expected in this pair, leading the price towards 0.8950-0.9050 area. EUR has suffered a blow from unsolved Italy's budget deficit and lackluster data from the eurozone. Nevertheless, EUR is likely to assert its stength versus GBP, which has been undermined by the long-lasting Brexit saga and mixed economic reports.

Recently the eurozone's M3 Money Supply report is going to be published with an increase to 3.9% from the previous value of 3.6% which was expected to decrease to 3.5%, German Gfk Consumer Climate report showed a slight decrease to 10.4 from the previous figure of 10.6 which was expected to be at 10.5, and Private Loans remained unchanged as expected at 3.2%. Today French Consumer Spending report is going to be published which is expected to increase to 0.5% from the previous value of -1.7%, French Prelim GDP is expected to be unchanged at 0.4%, Spanish Flash CPI is expected to decrease to 2.0% from the previous value of 2.3%, and German Unemployment Change is expected to increase to -10k from the previous figure of -11k. Moreover, ECB President Draghi is going to speak today about the regulator's plans on further monetary policy which is expected to have a positive impact on the upcoming EUR gains.

On the GBP side, recently the Bank of England released the Bank Stability report and Stress Test results. Another market-moving event was a speech of BOE Governor Carney. All seven British banks passed the test indicating that they could withstand any Brexit scenario, but there are possibilities of BREXIT to have a negative impact on the UK economy which could be greater than 2008's financial crisis. There are also certain chances of economy to have 8% shrinkage in a year leading the GBP to be weaker in the coming days. Today UK Net Lending to Individuals report is going to be published which is expected to decrease to 4.5B from the previous figure of 4.7B, M4 Money Supply expected to increase to 0.3% from the previous value of -0.3%, and Mortgage Approvals is expected to be unchanged at 65k.

Meanwhile, GBP is quite optimistic ahead of the nearest reports. Nevertheless, due to the looming Brexit, the UK economy is expected to have weaker fundamentals than the eurozone. Interestingly, the eurozone's economy is facing some headwinds. Germany revealed contraction in economic growth in Q3. Despite such headwinds in the eurozone, GBP is expected to lose ground quite impulsively in the coming days.

Now let us look at the technical view. The price is currently residing above 0.8850 area while being supported by the dynamic level of 20 EMA. As per current price formation, it is expected to push higher towards 0.8950-0.9050 resistance area in the coming days. As the price remains above 0.8850 with a daily close, the bullish bias is expected to continue further.

SUPPORT: 0.8700, 0.8850

RESISTANCE: 0.8950, 0.9050

BIAS: BULLISH

MOMENTUM: IMPULSIVE and VOLATILE

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Simplified wave analysis of GBP / JPY for the week of November 29

Wave pattern on the H4 chart:

The direction of the price movement of the cross in the short term sets the rising wave of August 15 and its structure looks complete.

Wave pattern on the H1 chart:

The high potential of the bearish wave that started on November 8 indicates a quick change in the direction of the short-term trend with the first part (A) completely formed.

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Wave pattern on the M15 chart:

The ascending portion of November 15 in the wave of the older H1 timeframe forms a correction.

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Recommended trading strategy:

In the upcoming weekly period, trade deals are not recommended. Short-term purchases are possible within the framework of the intraday, however, it is more reasonable to reduce the lot. In the area of the calculated resistance, it is recommended to track the sales signals of the instrument.

Resistance zones:

- 147.30 / 147.80

Support areas:

- 143.70 / 143.20

Explanations of the figures:

The simplified wave analysis uses waves consisting of 3 parts (A – B – C). For the analysis, three main TFs are used. On every last part, the incomplete wave is analyzed. Zones show calculated areas with the highest probability of reversal.

The arrows indicate the wave marking by the method used by the author. The solid background shows the formed structure while the dotted shows the expected movement.

Note: The wave algorithm does not take into account the duration of tool movements over time. To conduct a trade transaction, you need confirmation signals from the trading systems you use!

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Simplified wave analysis of AUD / USD pair for the week of November 29

Wave pattern on the H4 chart:

The last completed wave of this scale was formed from June to October. This part of the graph is in a downward daily trend.

Wave pattern on the H1 chart:

On October 5, the rising wave started up. Its low wave level puts it in place of a correction in the main trend wave.

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Wave pattern on the M15 chart:

On this scale, the last wave from November 21 is ascending. It completes the bullish wave of hourly timeframe.

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Recommended trading strategy:

The growth potential of the pair is limited. Upon reaching the settlement zone of resistance, a purchase transaction should be closed. It is recommended that supporters of trading on large TFs to start tracking reversal signals to search for entry into short positions.

Resistance zones:

- 0.7350 / 0.7400

Support areas:

- 0.7200 / 0.7150

Explanations of the figures:

The simplified wave analysis uses waves consisting of 3 parts (A – B – C). For the analysis, three main TFs are used. On every last part, the incomplete wave is analyzed. Zones show calculated areas with the highest probability of reversal.

The arrows indicate the wave marking by the method used by the author. The solid background shows the formed structure while the dotted shows the expected movement.

Note: The wave algorithm does not take into account the duration of tool movements over time. To conduct a trade transaction, you need confirmation signals from the trading systems you use!

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GBP / USD: plan for the European session on November 29. Traders are waiting for the statements of the Bank of England for

As long as trading continues above intermediate support 1.2829, demand for the pound will continue, and the formation of a false breakout at this level will be an additional signal to open long positions in order to break through and consolidate above the 1.2878 maximum. The main goal of the bulls will be the level of 1.2924, where I recommend to take profits. In the case of a decline in GBP / USD in the first half of the day, long positions can be viewed in the support area of 1.2788 or in a rebound from 1.2746.

The open short positions on GBP / USD you need:

Bears have to rely on the report of the Bank of England on Brexit. Any criticism can lead to a sharp sale of the pound. Breakthrough support 1.2829 opens a direct road to the area of a larger level 1.2788. The main task for the first half of the day will be fixing below 1.2788 with updating the lower border of the side channel 1.2746, where I recommend to fix the profit. In the case of a pound increase, you can take a closer look at short positions on the false breakdown from resistance 1.2878 or sell it for a rebound from 1.2924.

Indicator signals:

Moving averages

Trade is conducted above the 30- and 50-day moving averages, which indicates a likely change in trend.

Bollinger bands

A break of the upper border of the Bollinger Bands indicator around 1.2865 will lead to further growth of the British pound.

More details about the forecast can be found in the video review.

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Description of indicators

  • MA (moving average) 50 days - yellow
  • MA (moving average) 30 days - green
  • MACD: fast EMA 12, slow EMA 26, SMA 9
  • Bollinger Bands 20
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Forecast for EUR / USD pair on November 29, 2018

EUR / USD pair

On Wednesday, investors returned to active speculation in the market. They ignored the worse than forecasts economic data bringing down all discontent at the speech of Fed Chairman Jerome Powell. The attack on the dollar occurred in the first second of his appearance on the podium, that is, explaining to the media about the connection of the fall of the dollar with Powell's supposed hint at monetary easing not true. Powell did say that rates are at a slightly below average level versus an earlier statement about current rates far below average. But in reality, the market only raised expectations for the December rate from 79.2% to 82.7%, expectations for the March increase increased from 48.5% to 49.5%. However, the yields on government bonds have somewhat decreased, in particular, on 5-year securities from 2.892% to 2.855%. However, in recent months, government bond yields are incorrect to correlate with the Fed's monetary policy, as they are increasingly acquiring a manipulative nature due to the US desire to reduce the burden of debt service. Also, it seems that Powell went against the recent statements of George, Bostic, Evans, and Clarida about the acceptable rate of rate hikes.

In the second estimate for the US GDP for the third quarter remained the same at 3.5% against expectations of a revision of up to 3.6%. The trade balance for October amounted to -77.2 billion dollars against the forecast of -76.7 billion and sales of new homes for the same month amounted to 544 thousand compared to the expected value of 583 thousand. Against this background, a sharp increase in wholesale stocks from 0.4% to 0.7% in October already looks like the overstock of warehouses. The data on consumer incomes and expenditures for October will be able to improve the picture today. The income forecast is 0.4% and expenditures are also 0.4%.

Complicating the current situation is just the fact of yesterday's speculation. Such a broad operation throughout the market should have a goal that is unlikely to be a one-day increase. From this point of view, the price trend towards another testing of the price channel line in the 1.1444 area seems to be justified. Even the exit of the price over the line on the MACD line on a daily basis at 1.1490 will not change the general trend for a medium-term decline in the euro.

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On the way, the only resistance is holding the price on the balance line of 1.1444 on the four-hour chart. In the current situation, we can only note that the price is in the free-walk zone, and this zone is fairly wide at 1.1267-1.1444.

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Wave analysis of GBP / USD for November 29. Level 1,2721 does not allow the pair to go below

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Wave counting analysis:

During the November 28 trading session, the GBP / USD pair rose by 80 bp, and the unsuccessful attempt to break through the minimum of the alleged wave b of the corrective set of waves leaves all the same hope for the tool to build an upward wave C with targets located above 32 figures. Nevertheless, at any moment the downward trend section can become much more complicated, and the wave markings require some clarifications. This will happen if the pair breaks through the low of November 15 and 27.

Shopping goals:

1.2935 - 50.0% Fibonacci

1.2991 - 38.2% Fibonacci

1.3175 - 0.0% Fibonacci

Sales targets:

1.2695 - 100.0% Fibonacci

1.2637 - 261.8% Fibonacci (senior grid)

General conclusions and trading recommendations:

GBP / USD pair from the complication of the downward trend section holds the level of 1.2721. A successful attempt to break through this level will complicate the wave pattern, and the pound will again fall under the sale. Now, I recommend cautious purchases of the pair based on the construction of an upward wave C with targets located between 1.2935 and 1.3175, which equates to 50.0% and 0.0% Fibonacci.

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Fed Chairman dropped the dollar

Fed Chairman dropped the dollar.

On late Wednesday evening, Fed Chairman Jerome Powell said that the current dollar rate is only "slightly below" the equilibrium level. This means that the Fed is very close to the goal of raising rates - and may stop with increases for a long period - and it is possible that there will not be new increases before the big crisis that everyone expects no later than 2020.

This statement by the head of the Fed caused a sharp reversal, in particular, in the EURUSD pair to the top - the rate rose sharply in a couple of hours from 1.1265 to 1.1385

There was an important statement on the pound: the head of the Bank of England Karni said that, in case of failure of the EU agreement - Britain in the Parliament of England, Britain will face a recession "the worst since World War II". Thus, the Bank of England exerts pressure on the parliament so that the deputies in the voting on December 11, in an agreement with the EU, would not even think of failing the agreement.

As a result, the dollar is falling, the euro and the pound are growing.

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Wave analysis of EUR / USD for November 29. Hopes for the uptrend of the trend remain

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Wave counting analysis:

During the Wednesday trading, the EUR / USD pair gained about 75 bp. Thus, the pair still remains within the framework of building a new upward trend section. The expected wave 2 is considered complete despite its fairly long appearance and its minimum will be an important point to support the uptrend trend. If this assumption is true, then the increase in quotations will continue with targets located above the 15th figure. The tool still needs news support, otherwise it is possible to switch to the backup option, which provides for the complication of the downward trend section.

Sales targets:

1.1215 - 0.0% Fibonacci

Shopping goals:

1.1471 - 100.0% Fibonacci

1.1528 - 127.2% Fibonacci

General conclusions and trading recommendations:

The pair remains within the framework of building a new ascending set of waves. Thus, now I still recommend small and cautious purchases of a pair with targets located near the estimated marks of 1.1471 and 1.1528, which corresponds to 100.0% and 127.2% Fibonacci. A successful attempt to break through the minimum of wave 2 will most likely lead to the complication of the downward trend section and will require making adjustments to the current wave marking.

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Indicator analysis. Daily review on November 29, 2018 for the pair GBP / USD

On Thursday, the upward movement will continue with the goal of 1.2897 - a rolling back level of 38.2% (yellow dotted line). The first intermediate upper target is 1.2873 - 21 medium EMA (black thin line).

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Fig. 1 (daily schedule).

Comprehensive analysis:

- indicator analysis - up;

- Fibonacci levels - top;

- volumes - down;

- candlestick analysis - up;

- trend analysis - up;

- Bollinger lines - down;

- weekly schedule - up.

General conclusion:

On Thursday, the upward movement will continue with the goal of 1.2897 - a rolling back level of 38.2% (yellow dotted line). The first intermediate upper target is 1.2873 - 21 medium EMA (black thin line).

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Fundamental Analysis of AUD/JPY for November 29, 2018

AUD/JPY has been quite impulsive with bullish gains recently which is expected to lead the price higher towards 83.50-84.50 resistance area in the coming days. A better-than-expected employment report helped AUD to gain and sustain bullish momentum while JPY is struggling due to a slowdown in Japan's economy and mixed economic reports.

Recently Auatralia's Construction Work Done report was published with a decrease to -2.8% from the previous value of 1.8% which was expected to be at -0.9%. Today Australia's Private Capital Expenditure report was also published worse than expected with a slight increase to -0.5% from the previous value of -0.9% which was expected to be at 1.1%. Moreover, HIA New Home Sales report was published with a decrease to -0.8% from the previous value of 1.1%. Despite downbeat economic results, AUD managed to sustain the bullish momentum with a slight pullback.

On the JPY side, BOJ is currently quite concerned with the economic sustainability rather than immediate development or growth. Lately the Bank of Japan dropped hints that it is serious about changes in its ultra-loose monetary policy if the situation demands. From the regulator's viepwoint, economic sustainability is ensured on condition of the 2% inflation target. Today Japan's Retail Sales report was published with an increase to 3.5% from the previous value of 2.2% which was expected to be at 2.7% and Tomorrow Unemployment Rate report is going to be published which is expected to be unchanged at 2.3%, Prelim Industrial Production is expected to increase to 1.3% from the previous value of -0.4%, and Tokyo Core CPI is expected to increase to 1.1% from the previous value of 1.0%. Additionally, Consumer Confidence report is going to be published which is expected to increase to 43.3 from the previous figure of 43.0 and Housing Starts is expected to increase to 0.4% from the previous value of -1.5%.

Meanwhile, AUD has been undermined by the fresh economic reports whereas JPY is optimistic. AUD gains are expected to be short-lived amid fundamentals. On the other hand, JPY has been propped up by expectations of solid data that expected to inject certain bearish momentum leading to a strong bearish counter-move in the coming days.

Now let us look at the technical view. The price is currently a bit bearish amid a pullback before pushing higher towards 83.50-84.50 resistance area. As the price rejects off the resistance area, certain bearish pressure is expected in the coming days which might lead the price to push lower towards 82.00 support area in the coming days. As the price remains below 85.00 area, there are certain chances of bearish intervention in the coming days.

SUPPORT: 80.50, 82.00

RESISTANCE: 83.50, 84.50, 85.00

BIAS: BULLISH

MOMENTUM: NON-VOLATILE

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Indicator analysis. Daily review on November 29, 2018 for the pair EUR / USD

Trend analysis (Fig. 1).

On Thursday, it is possible to continue the upward movement, with the first target of 1.1393, the sliding level of 61.8% (yellow dotted line). From this level, you can try to work down, but it will be a sliding job (high risk). But in general, the upward trend will continue.

eurusd-d1-instaforex-companies-group.png

Fig. 1 (daily schedule).

Comprehensive analysis:

- indicator analysis - up;

- Fibonacci levels - up;

- volumes - down;

- candlestick analysis - up;

- trend analysis - up;

- Bollinger lines - down;

- weekly schedule - up.

General conclusion:

On Thursday, it is possible to continue the upward movement, with the first target of 1.1393, the sliding level of 61.8% (yellow dotted line). From this level, you can try to work down, but it will be a sliding job (high risk). But in general, the upward trend will continue.

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Forecast for GBP / USD pair on November 29, 2018

GBP / USD pair

Yesterday, the British pound rose by 80 points under the influence of a speculative attack on the dollar. The reason was the statement by Fed Chairman Powell about current rates slightly below average levels, and not "far" from average levels, as investors would like to hear. Meanwhile, it became known that Prime Minister Theresa May no longer "hinders" Parliament from moving towards blocking the Brexit deal. Parliamentary factions hastily began to draw up new drafts of the treaty in order to present alternatives until December 11, when the agreement will be voted on. Obviously, nothing good will work in this situation. We are still hoping for the passage of the May version as already approved by the EU) but our confidence is beginning to weaken.

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Technically, on the daily timeframe, the pound is completely in a negative and declining position but it is increasing on all parameters on the four-hour chart. The price can work both scales at the same time within acceptable limits, that is, the growth will be limited by the resistance of the balance line on the daily chart around the level of 1.2920, after which the price will turn down. Fixing prices under the indicator lines on H4 will allow today and tomorrow to return to yesterday's low or even below it.

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Contributing factors to the implementation of this scenario are data on income and expenditure of consumers in the US in October with the forecast expects growth in both parameters by 0.4%. In other words, we are waiting for the resolution of the situation.

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Trading plan for 29/11/2018

On Thursday, the 29th of November, the event of the day is FOMC Meeting Minutes release later during the evening, but before this will happen there are other important data scheduled for release from Germany (Unemployment Change and Unemployment Rate), France (GDP), UK (Net Lending) and Eurozone (Financial Stability Report).

SP500 analysis for 29/11/2018:

The President of the Federal Reserve had his speech yesterday evening. Although investors were waiting for the words of Jerome Powell, probably no one expected such a dovish tone of his speech. It can be concluded that the Fed may start the process of normalization of monetary policy next year. "Interest rates are still low by historical standards, but they are only slightly under the broad spectrum of neutral rate forecasts for the economy," said Powell. The head of the FED hardly mentioned the gradual rate hike, and when he did, he spoke in the past tense.

Moreover, he did not mention the drop in oil prices in his speech, but it is likely to affect inflation and, more importantly, lower inflation expectations. Thanks to this, the FED will have some time to check the impact of existing interest rates and verify the policy.

Let's now take a look at the SP500 technical picture at the H4 time frame. The reaction of the markets was unambiguous: stocks on Wall Street jumped up, SP500 ended the session with an increase of 2.30%. The SP500 has retraced 61% of the previous swing down and has hit the level of 2745. Currently, the market is consolidating the gains as the nearest support is seen at the level of 2707. On the other hand, in the case of a further move upward, the next target for bulls is seen at the level of 2766.

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Fundamental Analysis of AUD/USD for November 28, 2018

AUD/USD has been quite volatile and indecisive amid impulsive bearish pressure. The price has been rejected off the 0.7300 area recently. Ahead of the universally expected rate hike in the US in the nearest days, USD is likely to gain momentum over AUD despite some weak reports from the US.

AUD found support from upbeat economic reports, especially the employment report which helped the currency to sustain consistent bullish pressure over USD earlier. Today Australia's Construction Works Done report was published with a decrease to -2.8% from the previous value of 1.8% which was expected to be at 0.9% that affected AUD gains today, leading to impulsive bullish rejection in back to back daily candles. Tomorrow Australia's Private Capital Expenditure report is going to be published which is expected to increase to 1.1% from the previous negative value of -2.5%.

On the USD side, investors are concerned about escalation of the trade war tensions. Besides, some Fed officials softened rhetoric about a pace of further monetary tightening. They worry that too fast tightening might hinder economic growth in the US. Nevertheless, USD has managed to gain consistent momentum with good sustainability. Today, US Prelim GDP report was published unchanged at 3.5%, undershooting the forecast for 3.6% expansion. Goods Trade Balance decreased to -77.2B from the previous figure of decreased to -76.3B which was expected to be at -76.7B, Prelim GDP Index report was unchanged at 1.7% as expected, and Prelim Wholesale Inventories rose to 0.7% from the previous value of 0.4% which was expected to be at 0.5%. Moreover, New Home Sales decreased to 544k from the previous figure of 597k which was expected to be at 583k and Richmond Manufacturing Index decreased to 14 from the previous figure of 15 which was expected to increase to 16.

Meanwhile, AUD is still quite strong against USD despite the strong likelihod of the rate hike. Any positive report from Australia in the coming days may have a certain impact on AUD gains. Otherwise, the bearish pressure may increase further in the future.

Now let us look at the technical view. The price is currently residing above the support area of 0.7150-0.7200 area while being supported by the dynamic level of 20 EMA in the process. On the back of recently emerging bearish divergence, the price is expected to push lower in case of a daily close below 0.7150. In the alternative scenairo, as the price remains above the 0.7150 area, the bullish bias may continue to push the price higher in the future.

SUPPORT: 0.7150, 0.7200

RESISTANCE: 0.7300, 0.7450

BIAS: BEARISH

MOMENTUM: VOLATILE

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Global macro overview for 29/11/2018

President Trump is not happy with how the Fed's policy is run by Chairman Powell, whom he himself appointed and now regrets. What seems more important, however, is the justification of his opinion. Well, Trump "has a hunch" that sometimes tells him more than the "minds" of others. It is difficult to argue with this and focus better on the Fed and Powell criticism. This time we are not dealing with a frivolous statement during a charity dinner, but with an authorized interview for the national newspaper. The words are well thought out and show how aware Trump's dissatisfaction with interest rate increases. In the future, we will probably hear more criticism that may be a source of market turbulence or fuel nervousness during times of sentiment deterioration. On the other hand, Trump has no power to change the Fed's policy and Powell's appeal. In addition, the Fed cultivates its independence, and in decisions, cultivates a conscientious calculation of economic factors. No analyst on the market can imagine that the Fed would be under pressure from Trump. This is important in the context of today's President Powell speech. Powell will remain unaffected by criticism and will repeat the Fed's attitude to the slow pace of interest rate increases. His statement should not differ much from yesterday's words of Deputy President Clarida, in which the pace of increases remains dependent on incoming data, and monitoring the economic situation has become more and more important when the Fed approaches the neutral interest rate. The December hike is decided and the market may speculate whether and when the Fed will decide to pause in the hike plan every quarter. The USD will remain the most sensitive on this issue.

Let's now take a look at the US Dollar index technical picture at the H4 time frame. The market failed to break through the swing high at the level of 97.70 and reversed. The price has reached the technical support at the level of 97.20 and is currently trading around the lower technical support at the level of 96.67. If this support is broken, then the next target for bulls is seen at the level of 96.22, just above the trend line support. Please notice the weak momentum supports the bearish outlook.

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Bitcoin analysis for 29/11/2018

The current situation in the crypto markets

The current bear markets are "golden time" for possession of cryptocurrencies - said today co-founder of Fundstrat Global Advisors, Tom Lee, during a speech at BlockShow Asia 2018.

He listed three main reasons for the recent market crash: Bitcoin Cash's hard-fork dispute, regulatory action by the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) forcing ICO to return funds to investors, and the "terrible" state of global markets, which fell by around 10 percent in October and November. The investor did not want to change his positive attitude towards cryptocurrencies. Describing the current situation, Lee explained: "We are dealing with a price correction, which caused a drop in price even below 200 days [a popular technical indicator used by investors to analyze price trends], but if you have time, there will be an increase. It will not happen in three months or one year, but in two to three years, and this is the golden time to have a crypto. As soon as Bitcoin exceeds its 200-day period, we know that a flood of money will come".

According to his speech at BlockShow, the crypto has only 50 million active wallets compared to 2.27 million PayPal accounts and 4.6 billion Visa and MasterCard accounts. Comparing Bitcoin with other payment systems in terms of the value of social networks, Lee supposes that in ten years, Bitcoin could be worth 10 million dollars for one coin.

Let's now take a look at the Bitcoin technical picture at the H4 time frame. The market has broken above the technical resistance level at $4,000 and made a new local high at the level of $4,350. Currently, the market is consolidating the gains, but the support at the level of $4,000 is still very possible to hit for a test. The larger time frame trend remains bearish.

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