Daily analysis of USDX for May 01, 2015

The donwside is still present on the USDX as it is trading below the resistance level of 95.00 and we could expect more lower moves to the support zone of 93.95 if the Index forms a lower low pattern in this direction. The 200 SMA on the daily chart is turning to neutral territory and we could expect some kind of sideways consolidation on coming Monday.

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The index is still finding strong support at the level of 94.70. It Is highly probable that it could test the resistance level of 95.34 during this rebound. Anyway, THE USDX could rally towards the 200 SMA if it makes a breakout at the level of 95.87. On the other side, the USDX could be looking for new lows if the Index breaks the support zone at the level of 94.05.

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Daily chart's resistance levels: 95.00 / 96.30

Dailychart's support levels: 93.95 / 92.68

H1 chart's resistance levels: 95.34 / 95.87

H1 chart's support levels: 94.70 / 94.05



Trading recommendations for today: Based on the H1 chart, place sell (short) orders only if the USD Index breaks with a bearish candlestick; the support level is at 94.70, take profit is at 94.05, and stop loss is at 95.34.

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Daily analysis of GBP/USD for May 01, 2015

On the daily chart, GBP/USD is already doing a deep pullback from the resistance level of 1.5371 after forming a fractal on the last high. Now, we could expect testing of the support zone of 1.5007 only if the pair does a breakout in the zone of 1.5238 to the downside. The MACD indicator is entering an overbought territory.

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GBP/USD is already strong in the current bearish bias because the pair is trading on the 200 SMA on the H1 chart. It could be offering dynamic support or just another dynamic pivot that could accelerate the bearish momentum. In our outlook on the intraday basis, GBP/USD could start to trade in sideways during the next week.

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Daily chart's resistance levels: 1.5238 / 1.5371

Dailychart's support levels: 1.5007 / 1.4874

H1 chart's resistance levels: 1.5217 / 1.5313

H1 chart's support levels: 1.5155 / 1.5102



Trading recommendations for today: Based on the H1 chart, place buy (long) orders only if the GBP/USD pair breaks a bullish candlestick. The resistance level is at 1.5217; take profit is at 1.5313; and stop loss is at 1.5123.

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Intraday technical levels and trading recommendations for EUR/USD for May 1, 2015

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The market was pushed lower after breaking below the major demand levels around 1.2100 and 1.2000 where historical bottoms were previously established back in July 2012 and June 2010.

The EUR/USD pair lost almost 1500 pips since the beginning of 2015. Moreover, EUR/USD bears have already pushed the market slightly below the monthly demand level at 1.0550 (established on January 1997).

The previous monthly closure had a negative impact on the EUR/USD pair. However, April's monthly candlestick came as a bullish engulfing candle. This may hinder further bearish decline for some time.

On the long-term, bearish breakdown of the monthly demand level of 1.0550 should not be excluded as long-term breakout target is roughly projected towards the level of 0.9450.

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The obvious bearish breakout of the weekly demand level at 1.1100 enhanced the bearish side of the market exposing lower targets.

Full projection targets of the Flag pattern were successfully reached at 1.0800 and 1.0500.

After such a long bearish rally (which started around the levels of 1.1300), bullish rejection was expressed at 1.0570 (monthly demand level).

Last week, the price zone between 1.0750 and 1.0800 failed to neutralize the ongoing bullish momentum. Instead of it, an ascending bottom was established around the level of 1.0750.

This applied a strong bullish pressure to the level of 1.1050, exposing the next supply zone at 1.1150-1.1240 where the price action should be watched carefully for a valid sell entry if the current daily candlestick comes as a reversal one by the end of the day.

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USD/CAD intraday technical levels and trading recommendations for May 1, 2015

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Overview:

Since bulls pushed the price further above the upper limit of both depicted bullish channels and the 79.6% Fibonacci level, the market looked quite overbought.

The market failed to hold above 1.2650 - 1.2680 (previous highs) resulting in the formation of a Triple-top pattern.

Successive lower highs were established within the depicted consolidation zone, enhancing the bearish side of the market.

Support levels around 1.2350 and 1.2300 (79.6% Fibonacci level) were broken after providing significant support for several weeks on the daily and weekly charts.

A daily fixation below 1.2300 cleared the way for the USD/CAD pair towards the levels of 1.2000, 1.1940 (projection target of the recent range breakout), and 1.1870 (the depicted weekly uptrend) if enough bearish momentum is maintained. That is why these levels should be watched carefully for early signs of the bullish price action.

On the other hand, the price zone of 1.2320-1.2350 remains the significant intraday resistance zone for further retesting. This zone is likely to offer a low-risk sell entry for retesting.

Trading recommendations:

For those who missed the initial breakout below 1.2100, conservative traders should wait for a bullish pullback towards 1.2170-1.2200 for a low-risk sell entry.

T/P levels should be placed at 1.1950, 1.1860, and 1.1810 while S/L should be placed above 1.2170.

Risky traders could have taken a high-risk BUY entry around the price level of 1.2000 yesterday. T/P is projected at 1.2100 and 1.2270 as long as USD/CAD bulls keep defending yesterday's low (1.1940).

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GBP/USD intraday technical levels and trading recommendations for May 1, 2015

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Overview:

On March 2, bearish breakdown of the lower limit of the previous daily channel occurred enhancing the bearish side of the market.

Persistence below the zone of 1.4950-1.5000 indicated a further bearish decline.

Initial projection target for this bearish breakout was located at 1.4700. Shortly after, the bearish trend was resumed towards the level of 1.4550 where a lower daily bottom was established.

Evident bullish recovery emerged at 1.4560 pushing the GBP/USD pair above the level of 1.4700. Since then, successive higher highs have been established on the H4 chart.

As anticipated, daily closure above 1.5060 (50% Fibonacci level) ended the ongoing bearish momentum. This exposed the next resistance levels at 1.5350 and 1.5400 (upper limit of the ongoing H4 channel).

In the short term, the zone of 1.5240-1.5200 (lower limit of the H4 channel and previous consolidation range) constitutes a prominent intraday support to be watched today for bullish reversal signs.

On the other hand, the level of 1.5050 remains the most prominent support level to watch for long-term buy entries (corresponds to 50% Fibonacci level and the previous consolidation range's upper limit)

Persistence below 1.5400 (the upper limit of the H4 channel and previous prominent resistance) enhances the bearish side of the market towards the levels of 1.5300, 1.5250, and 1.5150 if enough bearish momentum is expressed below 1.5240.

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EUR/NZD analysis for May 01, 2015

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Overview:

Recently, EUR/NZD has been trading upwards. As we had expected, the price tested the level of 1.4848 in a high volume. The short-term trend is bullish. Be careful when selling at this stage and watch for potential buying opportunities after a bearish correction. Our objective points are at the levels of 1.4385, 1.4490, and 1.4525. According to Fibonacci expansion, the next bullish objective point is at the price of 1.5000 (Fibonacci expansion 161.8%). According to the daily time frame, we can observe demand in an ultra high volume, which is a sign that selling looks risky. According to the H4 time frame, we can observe demand in a volume below the average due the bank holiday.

Fibonacci Pivot Points:

Resistance levels:

R1: 1.4770

R2: 1.4825

R3: 1.4910

Support levels:

S1: 1.4600

S2: 1.4545

S3: 1.4455

Trading recommendations: Be careful when selling EUR/NZD and watch for potential buying opportunities after a retracement.

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Gold analysis for May 01, 2015

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Overview:

Since our last analysis, gold has been trading downward. The price tested the level of $1,176.95. I am waiting for a clear direction and stong volume. According to the daily time frame, we can observe supply in an ultra high volume (selling climax), which is a sign that selling at this stage looks risky. Our Fibonacci retracement 61.8% (support) at $1,174.00 is again on the test. Major resistance is seen around the level of $1,220.00. The short-term trend is bearish. According to the H4 time frame, we can observe supply in a volume below the average . I placed Fibonacci expansion to find potential resistance levels and got Fibonacci expansion 61.8% at $1,225.00, Fibonacci expansion 100% at $1,256.00, and Fibonacci expansion 161.8% at $1,306.00. Anyway, if the price breaks the level of $1,175.00 in a high volume, we may see potential testing of the level of $1,148.00 (swing low like support).

Daily Fibonacci pivot points:

Resistance levels:

R1: 1,200.50

R2: 1,208.00

R3: 1,220.90

Support levels:

S1: 1,176.00

S2: 1,169.20

S3: 1,157.00

Trading recommendations: I am neutral about gold. Anyway, selling looks risky around the price of $1,174.00 (Fibonacci retracement 61.8%). Watch for potential selling opportunities below the price of $1,174.00.


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Technical analysis of EUR/USD for May 1, 2015

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Overview:

  • The EUR/USD pair has entered above the weekly support one at the level of 1.1190. So, the strong support will be set at the spot of 1.1205 today. Also, you have to consider the price of 1.1333 which represents a strong resistance, but a minor resistance is set at the level of 1.1279. Consequently, we expect a range about 74 pips (1.1279 - 1.1205) in coming hours. Therefore, the market will probably indicate a bullish opportunity at the level of 1.1205 and the double top will act as a minor resistance around the area of 1.1279. Consequently, depending on the previous events, the price is going to move between the levels of 1.1205 and 1.1279. So, the area above 1.1205 is looking for further upside with the first target at 1.1279. Moreover, if the trend can break the minor resistance at 1.1279, the pair will continue towards 1.1333 in order to test the strong resistance on the H4 chart. However, stop loss should be placed below the price of 1.1190. Actually, it will be very useful to set the stop loss at the level of 1.1173.

Observations:

  • The trend was very clear (uptrend).
  • The resistance will be set at the price of 1.1333 and the support stood at 1.1190.
  • We expect a range of 82 pips.
  • The level of 1.1248 is representing the daily pivot point.
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Technical analysis of USD/CHF for May 1, 2015

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Overview:

  • The price of the USD/CHF pair is still set below strong resistance at the level of 0.9393 (23.6% of Fibonacci retracement levels on the H1 chart). It should be noted that the price will be trapped between 0.9393 and 0.9279. Moreover, these levels are coinciding with 23.6% and 11.8% of Fibonacci retracement levels on the H4 chart; and the pair has already formed strong resistance at this level of 0.9393. Now it is approaching this level in order to test it. Therefore, the USD/CHF pair downside momentum is rather convincing and the structure of the fall does not look corrective. In order to indicate bearish opportunity below 0.9393, it will be a good sign to sell below this level with the first target of 0.9325. It will call for a downtrend in order to continue bearish movement towards 0.9280. Furthermore, the price will possibly form strong support at 0.9279 (the level of 0.9279 is representing the weekly support 1). So it will be saturation around 0.9279 to rebound. Probably, the market is going to start showing signs of the bullish market. In other words, it will be a good sign to buy above 0.9279 with the first target at 0.9333 and continue towards 0.9400. Also, note that if you buy at 0.9279, the area below the level of 0.9279 will be a good place to set stop loss.
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Elliott wave analysis of EUR/NZD for May 1 - 2015

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Technical summary:

The break above resistance at 1.4640 has shifted the preferred count to the much more bullish count calling for wave iii higher to at least 1.4983 and possibly even higher. As can be seen, the base channel resistance line has been broken and that argues for acceleration higher in wave iii.

Short term support is found at 1.4755 and again at 1.4619.

Trading recommendation:

We bought EUR again at 1.4645 and will place our stop at 1.4745. If you are not long EUR yet, the buy near 1.4755 with the same tight stop at 1.4745

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Technical analysis of Gold for May 01, 2015

Technical outlook and chart setups:

Gold has dropped lower towards $1,178.00/80.00 levels as seen here; more than our expectations since last two days. The metal is trading at $1,181.00 levels for now and looking into the wave structure it could rally from here, or initially drop towards $1.155.00/56.00 levels and then resume rally. An aggressive trade setup would be to initiate long positions now with risk at $1,170.00 levels while a conservative trade strategy would be to remain flat for now and look to buy at lower levels. Bulls could regain control till prices remain above $1,170.00 levels though. Immediate support is seen at $1,175.00, followed by $1,162.00 and lower while resistance is seen at $1235.00, followed by $1,280.00/85.00 and higher respectively.

Trading recommendations:

Initiate fresh long positions no, stop at $1,170.00, a target is open.

Good luck!

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Elliott wave analysis of EUR/JPY for May 1 - 2015

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Technical summary:

The rally from the long-term important low at 126.02 is unfolding as a textbook impulsive rally. Yes, it did start up with an difficult to read leading diagonal, but then we rather quickly nailed this formation and then the rest has be fairly straight forward. We are currently testing the 261.8% extension target of red wave i. So is red wave iii in place? We don't think so and will be looking for a continuation higher to 135.70 and maybe even higher to 137.40 before red wave iii is in place.

Short-term support is found at 133.72 and again at 132.54.

Trading recommendation:

We are long EUR from 128.85 and will raise our stop to 132.45. If you are not long EUR yet, then buy near 133.72 with the same stop at 132.45.

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Technical analysis of Silver for May 01, 2015

Technical outlook and chart setups:

Silver had dropped to expected levels ($16.00/15.80) yesterday before pulling back. This could be a final drop before a rally resumes towards $18.40/50 levels in the coming sessions. Bulls should be in control till prices stay above $15.60 and $15.30 levels subsequently. It is recommended to initiate fresh long positions here, with a risk below $15.30 levels. Immediate support is seen at $15.60 (interim), followed by $15.30 and lower while resistance is seen at $17.40/50 (interim), followed by $18.40/50 and higher respectively.

Trading recommendations:

Initiate fresh long positions around $16.20/25, stop at $15.30. A target is open.

Good luck!


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Technical analysis of EUR/JPY for May 01, 2015

Technical outlook and chart setups:

The EUR/JPY pair is expected to continue a rally towards at least 136.00/50 levels from here on, before it produces a meaningful retracement lower. It is recommended to remain flat for now and look to buy lower on a correction. Bulls are poised to take off resistance at 136.50 levels for now. Immediate support on the 4-hour chart view is around the 131.50 levels, followed by 129.00, 127.50 and lower while resistance is seen at 136.00/50, followed by 138.00 and higher respectively.

Trading recommendations:

Remain flat for now.

Good luck!


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Technical analysis of EUR/JPY for May 1, 2015

General overview for 01/05/2015 09:10 CET

Due to the extended moves to the upside and rather unconventional market behavior, the larger time frame count has been examined to make sure if the bottom for this market might be in place already. It looks like this scenario is quite valid, but still even if the low is in place at the level of 126.08, the recent wave development is still in favor or a rather corrective progression in wave C black of wave B blue instead of any new upward trend is beginning. Please notice that the wave C black current target is at the level of 135.45 but on a larger time frame it is possible for this wave to extend the gains up to the level of 136.67.

Support/Resistance:

135.45 - 135.66 - Projected Target Zone

134.50 - Intraday Support

135.00 - Intraday Resistance

Trading recommendations:

Daytraders and swingtraders should consider refraining from trading as the upward moves are extended and corrective cycle might start any time now. Nevertheless, aggressive scalpers might consider trading with the trend and buying the dips on this pair is the way to trade so far.

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Technical analysis of GBP/CHF for May 01, 2015

Technical outlook and chart setups:

The GBP/CHF pair has pulled back sharply lower towards an intermediary support trend line passing around 1.4300 levels. Furthermore, the pair has reached a fibonacci 0.618 support of the entire rally between 1.4100 to 1.4700 levels respectively. It is hence recommended to initiate fresh long positions now (1.4300/10) with risk below 1.4200. Immediate support is seen at 1.4200 levels, followed by 1.4100 and lower while resistance is seen at 1.4830 levels, followed by 1.4900 and higher respectively. Bulls should remain in control till prices stay above the trend lng support and subsequently 1.4200 levels respectively.

Trading recommendations:

Initiate long positions, stop at 1.4180, a target is open.

Good luck!


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Technical analysis and trading recommendations on Gold for May 01, 2015

The yellow metal edged lower and probably made a double top at $1,214.70. At yesterday's session, the metal managed to made a higher low at $1,176.80, whereas the previous low was at $1,174.90 rounded to $1,174.00. The FOMC meeting delivers a hawkish stance on the US economy. The first quarter slow growth was a temporary event. It makes traders shift to book profit. At yesterday's session, the US jobs data surpassed expectations.That was the lowest level for initial claims since April 15, 2000. This factor added more pressure on the metal and turned the bullish signals on the US economy. Today, traders are focused on ISM manufacturing PMI data. In 2015, the four months readings were printed below expectations. The manufacturing PMI was at 58.7 in December 2014. This has been the best reading so far for the 5-months. The reading fell to 51.5 in April 2015 from 58.7 in December 2014. 59.00 was the highest figure in September and November 2014. The lowest reading was 49.00 in June 2013. Due to the weekend and trading at lower levels, we can expect some short covering, in case the US delivered weak ISM data. The technical resistance seems at $1,191.00 50Dsma, $1,198.00 20Dsma, and $1,200.00 uneconomical level. The daily RSI and stochastic indicated bearish signals. We recommend fresh selling below $1,174.00 with targets at $1,167.00 and $1,164.00 initially. The price has been consolidating for 4 weeks between $1,178.00 and $1,223.00. Finally, it gave a break on the downside and made a double bottom in the four-hour chart and changed the direction. The current trading pattern is formed between $1,174.00 and $1,200.00. Until the price closes below $1,200.00, the probability of another break on the lower side is high. At an intraday session, we recommend buying above $1,185.00 with small targets at $1,189.00, $1,192.00, and $1,195.00. In the latter case, it can retest $1,197.00 and $1,200.00. Similar to the US jobs data, if ISM data also comes as a surprises to traders, another panic will be triggered. In this case, we recommend selling below $1,180.00 with targets at $1,177, $1,174.00, $1,167.00, and $1,164.00.

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Technical analysis and trading recommendations on GBP/USD for May 01, 2015

The cable has been extending its bullish bias for seven days in a row. Ahead of the UK's election next Thursday, the pound is trading higher against the USD. We initially expect the pound will be under pressure, but the soft USD allows the cable to fly high. From the April low's, the cable rose more than 900 pips. At yesterday's session, the cable edged lower and probably made a double top 1.5498. Strong resistance seems at 1.5555 which is the previous swing high on the daily chart and 200Dema. In our previous reports, we repeatedly advised big spikes were available above 1.5000. The cable gave handsome gains of 500 pips. Though the cable closed above 20&50Dsma, a bullish crossover has not taken place yet. The cable managed to recover the March losses in April.

Key support levels:

100DEMA 1.5230,100DSMA, 1.5170, 20WSMA 1.5150, 50DSMA 1.5022, 20DSMA 1.4995.

Resistance levels:

200DSMA1.5553, 200DEMA 1.5693. A double top at 1.5498 rounded to 1.5550.

The above technical levels have been provided ahead of the big event, the general election in the UK next week. We expect wild moves in the coming week. On the daily chart, RSI is found at the extremely overbought level of 73.

Intraday view: The cable shifted from lower lows to lower tops on the hourly chart after April 20. A double top was formed at 1.5500 roughly. The trading pattern is framed between 1.5500 and 1.5300. On the higher side, bulls have only 50pips available in intraday. For risky traders, we recommend buying above 1.5365 with targets at 1.5385, 1.5400, 1.5430, 1.5500, and 1.5550. Safe traders can buy above 1.5400 with the targets at 1.5430, 1.5500, and 1.5550. Bulls can challenge 1.5550 in case the double top is breached. On the bearish front, we recommend selling below 1.5300 with the targets at 1.5260, 1.5230 100Dema, 1.5200, 1.5170 100Dsma, and 61.8 FE. On the four hour chart, the price closed and is trading below 35DEMA, not a good sign for bulls.

Trade: Buying above 1.5365, selling below 1.5300.

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Technical analysis and trading recommendation on EUR/NZD for May 01, 2015

EUR/NZD

NZD: New Zealand's finance minister delivered a speech in Wellington Employers' Chamber of Commerce today. "We remain committed to further reductions in income tax rates or thresholds, when fiscal conditions permit," Bill English said on Friday in a pre-budget speech. He stated the current low level of inflation, currently 0.1 per cent and well below the 2 per cent midpoint of the central bank's target, was "mostly good for New Zealand households".

"But at the same time, very low inflation and lower commodity prices mean growth in the nominal economy, which is the dollar value of what we produce each year, is more muted than expected."

Technical view: The kiwi pushed lower against the USD and EUR. At yesterday's session, we advised buying EUR/NZD with targets at 1.4685, 1.4785, and in the medium term 1.4820,1.4860, and 1.4930. The cross made a high at 1.4797 and minted 200+ pips in a day. The cross has the nearest resistance at 1.4820 100Dema and 1.4865 20Dsma. We advised buying at 1.4570 in yesterday's article. On the four-hour chart, RSI and stochastic signal overbought levels. Today, we guess the cross can pause its move next to 1.4800 and 1.4820. Intraday support is found at 1.4688 and 1.4630. The cross edged higher and probably made a double bottom at 1.4174 April 28 low and changed the direction. Currently, the cross is trading at a 7-week high and trading above the previous swing on the daily chart. The pair favors buyers in all time frames in the near and medium terms.

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Technical analysis and trading recommendation on USDX & USD/JPY for May 01, 2015

In the week ending April 25, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 262,000, a decrease of 34,000 from the previous week's revised print. This is the lowest level for initial claims since April 15, 2000 when it was 259,000. Just after the FOMC meeting, the US economic data delivered stellar prints. Personal income increased $6.2 billion or less than 0.1 percent, and disposable personal income (DPI) increased $1.6 billion, or less than 0.1 percent in March, according to the Bureau of Economic Analysis. Real DPI decreased 0.2 percent in March in contrast to an increase by 0.3 percent in February.

The USDX drifted below 100Dema in intraday but managed to close above that at the end of the day. In case, the price closes below 94.60, bears can challenge 93.80 and 93.20. On the higher side, 96.17 acting as a strong ceiling. The index was capped at 100.00 mark for the near term. Today at the Asian session, the index is trading in green. Intraday resistance seems to be at 95.00 and 95.45. For buyers, small trade is available. Buying could be above 95.10 with a target at 95.45. In case, the index breaches the 95.50 mark, it can extend towards 95.70 and 96.00 in intraday.

USD/JPY

Technical view: Again, the pair tested support and changed the direction towards the multi-resistance level of 120.10. After the BoJ monetary policy and US jobs data, the pair moved towards 119.90. We still recommend buying with sl 118.20 100Dsma for the couple of weeks. At yesterday's session, we recommended selling below 118.50, but the pair made a low at 118.50 and changed the direction. The pair managed to close above 20Dsma and 100Sma, but the bearish crossover is still active. The pair has the nearest parallel resistance at 120.10. Another big spikes are available above 120.10 towards 120.85 the trend change level. If the pair closes above 120.85, bulls can bet at a new high at 122.50. Today, the pair opened on a bullish note. We advise the positional traders to move their trailing sl towards 119.20 from 118.20. Fresh traders can buy above 120.10 for an immediate target 120.50 and 120.80. On the downside, the pair made a double bottom between 118.30 and 118.54. The 100Dema is found at 118.28. The trading pattern has shifted between 120.10 and 118.30. Intraday support is found at 119.37 below this mild support is found at 119.20.

Trade: Fresh buying above 120.10, positional traders move TSL at 119.20

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Technical analysis and trading recommendation on EUR/USD for May 01, 2015

Germany: According to the flash estimates of the Federal Statistical Office, retail turnover in March 2015 in Germany increased 3.5% in real terms and 3.2% in nominal terms compared with the corresponding month of the previous year. When adjusted for calendar and seasonal variations, March turnover in March was in real terms 2.3 % and in nominal terms 1.8% down from the prints in February 2015. The unemployment rate still remained at a record low. Germany is the biggest economy in the eurozone.

France: In March 2015, household consumption expenditure stepped back by 0.6% after increasing for four months in a row. This decline was mainly driven by the downturn in energy consumption.

Spain: According to the flash estimate published by the INE, the annual inflation of the CPI in April 2015 is –0.6%.The Gross Domestic Product generated by the Spanish economy registered a 0.9% variation in the first quarter of 2015, as compared to the previous quarter, according to the flash estimate of quarterly GDP. This rate was two-tenths higher than that registered in the previous quarter (0.7%).

Eurozone: Euro area annual inflation is expected to be 0.0% in April 2015, up from -0.1% in March, according to the flash estimate from Eurostat, the statistical office of the European Union.

(The euro area consists of Belgium, Germany, Estonia, Ireland, Greece, Spain, France, Italy, Cyprus, Latvia, Lithuania, Luxembourg, Malta, the Netherlands, Austria, Portugal, Slovenia, Slovakia and Finland).

Spain readings are better than Germany's and France's figures.

Upcoming events:Today bank holiday is in France, Germany, and Italy. It's a quiet day in the economic calendar for the euro and mild busy in the US. ISM manufacturing PMI readings are due. In 2015, the readings for the first four months were below expectations. The manufacturing PMI was 58.7 in December 2014. This has been the best reading so far for 5 months. The index fell to 51.5 in April 2015 from 58.7 in December 2014. 59.00 was the highest reading in September and November 2014. The lowest reading was 49.00 in June 2013.

Technical view:The euro extend its bullish bias six days in a row against the USD. At yesterday's session, we recommended buying above 1.1130 with the targets at 1.1150, 1.1190, 1.1230, and 1.1250. The pair made a high at 1.1265. For today's session, we recommend fresh buying only above 1.1265 where strong resistance is found at 1.1260 20Wsma. The trend change level seems at 1.1310 10Dema. In case the price breaches above 1.1265, another strong resistance zone will be found between 1.1300 and 1.1310 100Dsma and 100Dema respectively. Technically speaking, until the price closes below 100dsma/ema, the bearish views remain in play. Bulls have only 45 pips available on the upside. Further spikes will favor new sell trades with sl 1.1265 on a weekly closing basis or use sl 1.1315 and start selling on a daily closing basis. Support is seen at 1.1100, 100.00 FE, and between 1.1055-1.1030 strong support base. Today, bullish crossover has not been confirmed on the daily chart yet. 50Dsma is found at 1.0877 and 20Dsma is seen at 1.0830. A daily close above 1.1315 ignited further bullish views in the coming weeks. On the bearish front, the price closed below between 1.1050 and 1.1030; further selling trades will be added to the system. In case the price manages to close above 1.1315, further bullish trades will be available for 100-150 pips on the higher side. Bulls can aim to reach 1.1390, 1.1470 161.8 FE. At present, the chances are remote.

Trade: For today's session, small trade is available on the higher side, buying above 1.1265 with targets at 1.1300 and 1.1310.

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Technical analysis of USD/JPY for May 01, 2015

USDJPYM30.png

Fundamental outlook:

USD/JPY is expected to trade in a range. Liquidity is thin in Asia today as financial markets in several Asian countries are shut for a public holiday. USD/JPY is underpinned by the improved dollar sentiment after fewer-than-expected 262,000 U.S. jobless claims in week ended April 25 (versus forecast 288,000), bigger-than-expected 0.7% increase in U.S. 1Q employment cost index (versus forecast +0.6%) as well as stronger-than-expected U.S. April ISM Chicago PMI of 52.3 (versus forecast 50.0). USD/JPY is also supported by the higher U.S. Treasury yields (2-year at 0.574% versus 0.567% late Wednesday), demand from Japan's importers, and ultra-loose Bank of Japan's monetary policy. But USD/JPY upside is limited by the flows to haven JPY amid decreased investor risk appetite (VIX fear gauge rose 8.66% to 14.55, S&P 500 closed 1.01% lower at 2,085.51 overnight) after no change in U.S. March personal income from the prior month (versus forecast +0.2%) and weaker-than-expected 0.4% increase in U.S. March personal spending (versus forecast +0.5%), Japan's export sales, and positions adjustment ahead of Japan's long weekend (financial markets in Japan are closed for a holiday on Monday).

Technical comment:
The daily chart is mixed as MACD is bearish; but stochastics is turned bullish near oversold levels. The bullish parabolic stop-and-reverse signal was hit on Thursday.

Trading recommendations:
The pair is trading above its pivot point. It is likely to trade in a wider range as long as it remains above its pivot point. As long as the price holds above its pivot point, long positions are recommended with the first target at 120.10 and the second target at 120.50. In the alternative scenario, if the price moves below its pivot points, short positions are recommended with the first target at 181.75. A break of this target is likely to push the pair further downwards, and one may expect the second target at 118.30. The pivot point is at 119.20.

Resistance levels:
120.10
120.50
121

Support levels:
118.75
118.30
117.80

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Technical analysis of USD/CHF for May 01, 2015

USDCHFM30.png

Fundamental overview:

USD/CHF is expected to consolidate with a bearish bias after hitting a two-and-a-half month low 0.9307 on Thursday. It is undermined by the franc demand on cross trades versus major currencies. But the Swissie sentiment is dented by the weaker-than-expected Switzerland April KOF economic barometer of 89.5 (versus forecast 90.2). USD/CHF losses are also tempered by the improved dollar sentiment, negative Swiss interest rates, and threat of Swiss National Bank CHF-selling intervention as well as positions adjustment ahead of the weekend.

Technical comment:
The daily chart is negative-biased as MACD and stochastics are bearish, although the latter is at oversold levels, five-day moving average is below 15-day moving average and is declining.

Trading recommendations:
The pair is trading below its pivot point. It is likely to trade in a lower range as long as it remains below the pivot point. Short positions are recommended with the first target at 0.9290. A break of that target will move the pair further downwards to 0.9220. The pivot point stands at 0.9420. In case the price moves in the opposite direction and bounces back from the support level, it will move above its pivot point. It is likely to move further to the upside. According to that scenario, long positions are recommended with the first target at 0.9500 and the second target at 0.9575.

Resistance levels:
0.95
0.9575
0.9620

Support levels:
0.9290
0.9220
0.9175

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Technical analysis of NZD/USD for May 01, 2015

NZDUSDM30.png

Fundamental overview:

NZD/USD is expected to trade with a bearish bias. It is undermined by the dovish shift in Reserve Bank of New Zealand's monetary policy stance, improved dollar sentiment, and Kiwi sales on soft NZD/JPY cross amid increased investor risk aversion and weak dairy prices. But NZD/USD losses are tempered by the Kiwi demand on retreating AUD/NZD cross and positions adjustment ahead of the weekend. The kiwi is vulnerable to 0100 GMT CFLP China April manufacturing and non-manufacturing PMI data.

Technical comment:
The daily chart is mixed as MACD is bullish but stochastics is bearish near overbought levels.

Trading recommendations:

The pair is trading below its pivot point. It is likely to trade in a lower range as long as it remains below the pivot point. Short positions are recommended with the first target at 0.7545. A break of that target will move the pair further downwards to 0.7490. The pivot point stands at 0.7665. In case the price moves in the opposite direction and bounces back from the support level, it will move above its pivot point. It is likely to move further to the upside. According to that scenario, long positions are recommended with the first target at 0.7700 and the second target at 0.7740.

Resistance Levels:
0.77
0.7740
0.7785

Support levels:
0.7545
0.7490
0.7445

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Technical analysis of GBP/JPY for May 01, 2015

GBPJPYM30.png

Fundamental outlook:

GBP/JPY is expected to consolidate with a bullish bias. GBP/JPY is underpinned by the buoyant GBP/USD undertone and demand from Japan's importers. But GBP/JPY gains are tempered by Japan's export sales and increased investor risk aversion as well as positions adjustment ahead of Japan's long weekend.

Technical comment:
The daily chart is positive-biased as MACD and stochastics are bullish, although the latter is at the overbought levels, five-day moving average is above 15-day moving average and is advancing.

Trading recommendations:
The pair is trading above its pivot point. It is likely to trade in a wider range as long as it remains above its pivot point. As long as the price holds above its pivot point, long positions are recommended with the first target at 185 and the second target at 186.20. In the alternative scenario, if the price moves below its pivot points, short positions are recommended with the first target at 181.60. A break of this target is likely to push the pair further downwards, and one may expect the second target at 180.75. The pivot point is at 182.40.

Resistance levels:
185
186.20
187

Support levels:
181.60
180.75
180

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Technical analysis of USD/CAD for May 1, 2015

General overview for 01/05/2015 07:50 CET

As anticipated yesterday, the market is breaking up above the important identical resistance zone as the bullish divergence is now fully exposed. The next hurdle for the price is a narrow supply zone marked on the chart by grey rectangle between the levels of 1.2165 - 1.2194. Any breakout higher would directly expose the key level for the test.

Support/Resistance:

1.1944 - Local Low

1.1986 - 38% Fibo

1.2023 - 23% Fibo

1.2086 - Technical Resistance

1.2130 - Intraday Resistance

1.2165 - 1.2194 - Supply Zone

Trading recommendations:

Daytraders and swingtraders should consider opening buy orders from current price levels (some of the traders might have open buy orders from yesterday already). Rather tight SL should be used here (20-30 pips) and TP is open for now.

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Daily analysis of major pairs for May 1, 2015

EUR/USD: Owing to the exponential stamina in the euro, this pair skyrocketed this week. The pair closed above the support line at 1.1150, an area where the battle is hot, as bears are trying their best to keep bulls from pushing the price further upwards. This is a critical phase in the bullish journey of this pair, and should the pair fail to move further upwards, there could be a reversal.

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USD/CHF: This market is highly volatile, for it is kept under pressure by bearish forces. There is a Bearish Confirmation Pattern on the chart and bears would continue to prove their strength as long as the EUR/USD pair is strong.

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GBP/USD: The Cable trended seriously upwards this week, nearly testing the distribution territory at 1.5500, before easing. The easing is seen as a transitory reversal in the context of an uptrend, and unless the accumulation territory at 1.5200 is breached to the downside, the bullish outlook would be far from being over.

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USD/JPY: Owing to the weakness of the JPY, the USD/JPY pair has broken to the upside, moving above the EMA 56, while the RSI period 14 is above the level 50. This is a bullish signal, which would be stronger only when the supply levels at 120.00 and 120.50 are breached to the upside.

4.png

EUR/JPY: The EUR/JPY pair has continued its bullish movement, even when it was thought that there was going to be a reversal. The market is like a flowing river and it pays to go with the flow. There has been an upward movement of 500 pips this week, which is enough to show that the bull has gotten lots of stamina. The supply zone at 134.50 is now being threatened by the bull.

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#USDX technical analysis for May 1, 2015

The Dollar index remains in a bearish trend. The head-and-shoulders pattern has provided us with a guide as to where to expect a low or pause to the decline. This level is at 93. However the downward sloping channel should also provide us with the boundaries that should not break if this bearish trend will continue.

usdx.jpg

Orange lines = bearish channel

Blue line = Resistance

The Dollar index is in a downtrend since it broke below 97.20-97 support. The short-term resistance is at 95.40 - 95.80. Breaking above this level could push the index towards the Ichimoku cloud in the area of 97-97.30. Otherwise if price remains contained inside the bearish channel, we should expect our target of 93 to be achieved.

usdxd.jpg

The weekly chart remains bearish at least for the short-term. The sell signal was given when last week the index closed below the tenkan-sen and with a new low we said we were heading towards the kijun-sen at 93-94. The 38% retracement is important support for the longer-term trend.











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Gold technical analysis for May 1, 2015

Gold price plummeted on Thursday back below $1,200 and is testing our previous lows at $1,175. The bullish flag pattern was canceled once the support $1,190 was broken and the weekly chart becomes even more bearish if we end the week around $1,180. My longer-term view remains bearish.

goldh4.jpg

Red line = support

Blue line = resistance

Gold price continues to trade since late March inside a trading range. Despite some short-lived spikes below this range, Gold price holds above $1,180 and below $1,223. Gold price has been moving sideways and this corrective pattern has frustrated all traders as the swings and false signals are plenty. The weekly chart is more clear.

goldd.jpg

The weekly chart has turned very bearish again if we observe the long tail above this week's candle body. Price got rejected once again at the kijun-sen and is now below the tenkan-sen once again. Things do not look good for Gold and today is the last day for bulls to try and save the day. As long as Gold price is below the 61.8% retracement and below the Ichimoku cloud, I will continue to expect a move to new lows near $1,000.

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Daily analysis of USDX for April 30, 2015

This week was a very bearish one for the USD Index, as it already tested the support level of 95.00. Anyway, as we said before in previous articles, those bearish moves are currently a part of a larger corrective move that we were expecting, because the overall trend is bullish and USDX is trading above the 200 SMA.

USDXDaily.png


Now, on the H1 time frame, USDX is forming a lower low pattern below the resistance level of 95.34 and now it's looking to break the support zone of 94.70 in order to fall to the 94.05 level in the very short term. The 200 SMA is still bearish and we are still seeing enough bearish room which could favor intraday traders who want to ride the bearish bias.

USDXH1.png


Daily chart's resistance levels: 96.30 / 97.83

Dailychart's support levels: 95.00 / 93.95

H1 chart's resistance levels: 95.34 / 95.87

H1 chart's support levels: 94.70 / 94.05



Trading recommendations for today: Based on the H1 chart, place sell (short) orders only if the USD Index breaks with a bearish candlestick; the support level is at 94.70, take-profit is at 94.05, and stop-loss is at 95.34.

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