Brief trading recommendations for EUR/USD and GBP/USD on 09/02/20

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The EUR/USD currency pair, moving in an upward direction, met a strong resistance level of 1.2000 on the way, where market participants naturally feel pressure, which leads to the fixation of trading positions. In our case, the buyers took the position, which was reflected in the market as a corrective movement in the form of a rising channel of trend lines no. 1, 2 and 3.

Now, if we continue from the correction scale 1.2000 to 1.1892, we can see that the current price movement is made in the area of the lower border of the rising channel (line No. 1), as well as the upper border of the side channel line No. 4 (area 1.1910), which the price previously broken, but focused on the trading forces of market participants for a long time.

Based on the obtained data on finding the quote relative to price channels, we can consider several scenarios for market development:

First, a price rebound from lines no. 1 and 4.

The rising channel continues to develop in the market, where the 1.1880/1.1910 area (lines no. 1 and 4) plays the role of a support, which leads to a gradual reversal of the quote. Thus, we can consider buying positions above 1.1925, towards 1.1960-1.1990.

Second, the price returns to the side channel.

In this scenario, the resumption of movement within the boundaries of 1.1700 // 1.1810 // 1.1910 is considered. On the contrary, we will consider selling positions if the price consolidates below 1.1865, with the prospect of moving to 1.1810

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The GBP/USD currency pair, moving in an upward direction, managed to reach the average level of the rising channel, which is the trend line no. 2 (1.1480 area), where there was a stop, which resulted in a corrective movement in the market.

Considering the correction, the quote of the pound is still in the structure of the rising channel, which means that the lower border, line no. 1 (1.3320/1.3340 area) can theoretically play the role of a support in the market, reversing the quote in the direction of the channel.

An alternative scenario will be considered if the price consolidates below the trend line No. 1, which will indicate a change in the structure of the rising channel.

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Indicator analysis. Daily review on EUR / USD for September 2, 2020

The pair traded upward on Tuesday and tested the upper boundary of the Bollinger line indicator at 1.1976 (purple dotted line), after that the price went down. Today the price may again roll back down. Economic calendar news for the dollar is expected at 12:15 and 14:30 UTC.

Trend analysis (Fig. 1).

The market may begin to move down from the level of 1.1914 (closing of yesterday's daily candle) with the first target at 1.1813 - a 23.6% pullback level (red dotted line). In case of reaching this level, the downward trend may continue with the next target at the support level 1.1692 (black bold line).

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Figure: 1 (daily chart).

Comprehensive analysis:

- Indicator analysis - down;

- Fibonacci levels - down;

- Volumes - down;

- Candlestick analysis - neutral;

- Trend analysis - up;

- Bollinger lines - up;

- Weekly chart - up.

General conclusion:

Today, the price may begin to move down with the target at 1.1813 - a 23.6% pullback level (red dotted line). In case of reaching this level, the downward trend may continue with the next target at the support level 1.1692 (black bold line).

Another possible scenario is a downward movement to 1.1888 - a 14.6% pullback level (red dotted line). Frome here, the price may roll back up to the upper fractal 1.2012 (red dotted line).

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Ethereum Price Movement On Sept 02, 2020.

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On the 4 hour chart, ethereum is now declining. It is moving above the Moving Average but the Stochastic Oscillator is already above the Overbought level. It may test the 447.36 level which acts as Resistance Become Support (RBS) level at 447.36. This scenario is likely to come true if it does not rise and close above the 485.00 level.

(Disclaimer)

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Gold Price Movement On Sept 02, 2020.

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Gold is now is moving toward to downside which is confirmed by the Divergence between gold and the price on the 4-hour chart. Gold now is heading for the 1953.91 level. As long as gold does not rise and close above 1991.80, this scenario is likely to occur.

(Disclaimer)

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US forecasts employment to reach 6 million

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The US government projects employment to rise by 6 million this decade, but its annual growth rate will be much lower than that during the economic recovery after the Great Recession.

Such a forecast was published by the US Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), however, it did not include the impact of quarantine and response measures, and only used past data for reference.

The recent shut down of the world economy was the largest economic shock since the Great Depression, during which 22 million jobs were lost, and when it ended, only 9.3 million jobs were restored.

"The projections for 2019–2029 were completed in the spring of 2020, while there was still uncertainty about the duration of the quarantine and its consequences," BLS said in a statement.

Thus, employment is tentatively projected to rise from 162.8 million to 168.8 million, having an annual growth rate of about 0.4%, which is significantly lower than the 1.3% recorded in 2009-2019 during the recovery from the 2007-2009 recession.

BLS predicts that it is the health and social care sectors that will have the most jobs.

Nonetheless, long-term forecasts are designed to reflect structural changes in the economy rather than cyclical fluctuations, therefore, the projected rate of employment growth bolsters economists' confidence that the labor market could take years to recover the jobs lost during the quarantine period.

A moderate economic growth is also expected, with the GDP forecasted to grow 1.8% annually between 2019 and 2029, up from 2.3% in the previous decade.

Workforce is also projected to grow to 171.5 million, while the labor force participation rate, that is, the proportion of working-age Americans who have or are looking for a job, is projected to fall from 63.1% to 61.2%.

"The declining workforce is due to the aging of the baby boomers, born between 1944 and 1964," BLS said. "By 2029, all baby boomers will be at least 65 years old."

It is also assumed that labor productivity will increase from 1.1% to 1.8% over the decade.

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Fractal analysis for main currency pairs on September 2

Outlook on September 2:

Analytical overview of currency pairs on the H1 scale:

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The key levels for the euro/dollar pair on the H1 chart are 1.2003, 1.1976, 1.1947, 1.1927, 1.1878, 1.1825, 1.1798 and 1.1756. The price is forming a potential for a downward cycle in the corrective zone of an upward structure. On the other hand, the decline is expected to continue after the breakdown of 1.1878. In this case, the target is 1.1825. There is a short-term downward movement and consolidation in the range of 1.1825 - 1.1798. For the potential value for the bottom, we consider the level 1.1756. Upon reaching which, we expect an upward pullback.

A short-term upward movement is possible in the range of 1.1927 - 1.1947. If the last value breaks down, a deep correction is possible. Here, the target is 1.1976, which is the key support for the descending structure from September 1.

The main trend is the upward cycle of August 21, correction stage.

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 1.1927 Take profit: 1.1946

Buy: 1.1948 Take profit: 1.1976

Sell: 1.1878 Take profit: 1.1826

Sell: 1.1824 Take profit: 1.1800

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The key levels for the pound/dollar pair are 1.3496, 1.3455, 1.3424, 1.3387, 1.3356 and 1.3292. We are following the development of the upward cycle from August 24 here. At the moment, the price is in correction. On the other hand, a short-term upward movement is expected in the range of 1.3424 - 1.3455, breaking through the last value will lead to a potential target - 1.3496. Upon reaching this level, consolidation and downward pullback is expected.

A consolidated movement is possible in the range of 1.3387 - 1.3356. The breakdown of the last value will lead to a deep correction. Here, the target is 1.3292, which is the key support for the top.

The main trend is the upward cycle from August 24, correction stage.

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 1.3424 Take profit: 1.3455

Buy: 1.3457 Take profit: 1.3496

Sell: 1.3385 Take profit: 1.3356

Sell: 1.3354 Take profit: 1.3294

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The key levels for the dollar/franc pair are 0.9239, 0.9202, 0.9174, 0.9134, 0.9090, 0.9072, 0.9038 and 0.8998. The price is forming potential initial conditions from the September 1 cycle. The upward movement, in turn, is expected to continue after the breakdown of 0.9134. In this case, the target is 0.9174. There is a short-term upward movement and consolidation in the range of 0.9174 - 0.9202. Now, we consider the level 0.9239 as a potential value for the top. Upon reaching which, we expect a downward pullback.

A short-term downward movement is possible in the range of 0.9090 - 0.9072. If the last value breaks down, a deep correction will emerge. Here, the potential target is 0.9038, which is the key support level for the top.

The main trend is the formation of initial conditions for the top from September 1

Trading recommendations:

Buy : 0.9134 Take profit: 0.9174

Buy : 0.9176 Take profit: 0.9202

Sell: 0.9090 Take profit: 0.9072

Sell: 0.9070 Take profit: 0.9040

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The key levels for the dollar/yen pair are 106.42, 106.08, 105.87, 105.52, 105.20, 104.96 and 104.39. Here, we are following the formation of the downward potential from August 28. We expect the downward movement to continue after the breakdown of 105.52. In this case, the target is 105.20. Meanwhile, price consolidation is in the range of 105.20 - 104.96. For the potential value for the bottom, we consider the level 104.39. A strong upward movement is expected after the breakdown of the level of 104.94.

A short-term upward movement is possible in the range 106.08 - 106.42, breaking through the last value will encourage the development of an upward trend. In this case, the potential target is 106.96.

The main trend is the formation of the downward potential from August 28

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 106.10 Take profit: 106.40

Buy : 106.44 Take profit: 106.95

Sell: 105.52 Take profit: 105.20

Sell: 104.95 Take profit: 104.40

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The key levels for the USD/CAD pair are 1.3239, 1.3181, 1.3157, 1.3121, 1.3096, 1.3048, 1.3026 and 1.2994. The price is forming potential initial conditions for the September 1 high. Meanwhile, a short-term upward movement is expected in the range of 1.3096 - 1.3121, breaking through the last value will lead to a pronounced upward movement. Here, the target is 1.3157. There is a short-term upward movement and consolidation in the range of 1.3157 - 1.3181.

A short-term downward movement is possible in the range of 1.3048 - 1.3026. If the last value breaks down, the downward movement will continue. In this case, the potential target is 1.2994.

The main trend is a local descending structure from August 24, building up potential for the top from September 1

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 1.3096 Take profit: 1.3120

Buy : 1.3123 Take profit: 1.3157

Sell: 1.3048 Take profit: 1.3027

Sell: 1.3024 Take profit: 1.2996

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The key levels for the AUD/USD pair are 0.7416, 0.7386, 0.7366, 0.7331, 0.7308, 0.7279, 0.7257 and 0.7230. The price is in the correction from the upward structure on August 21. A short-term downward movement is expected in the range of 0.7331 - 0.7308, breaking through the last value will lead to a pronounced downward movement. The target is 0.7279. Meanwhile, there is consolidation in the range of 0.7279 - 0.7257, from which we consider the level of 0.7230 as a potential value for the bottom. Upon reaching which, we expect an upward pullback.

The main trend is the upward cycle of August 21, correction stage.

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 0.7366 Take profit: 0.7385

Buy: 0.7387 Take profit: 0.7416

Sell : 0.7330 Take profit : 0.7308

Sell: 0.7306 Take profit: 0.7280

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The key levels for the euro/yen pair are 128.20, 127.61, 127.20, 126.95, 126.35, 126.07, 125.62 and 124.94. We are following the medium-term upward structure from August 21st here. Now, the upward movement is expected to continue after the price passes the noise range 126.95 - 127.20. In this case, the target is 127.61. There is consolidation near this level. On the other hand, we consider the level 128.20 as a potential value for the top, from which we expect a downward pullback.

A consolidated movement is expected in the range of 126.35 - 126.07. In case of breakdown of the last value, a deeper movement is possible. The target here is 125.62, which is the key support for the top and its breakdown will cancel the development of a downward trend. In this case, the potential target is 124.94.

The main trend is the upward structure of August 21

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 127.20 Take profit: 127.60

Buy: 127.65 Take profit: 128.20

Sell: 126.05 Take profit: 125.64

Sell: 125.60 Take profit: 125.00

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The key levels for the pound/yen pair are 143.48, 142.81, 142.41, 141.86, 141.31, 141.04 and 140.65. We are following the development of the rising structure from August 24. The upward movement is expected to continue after the breakdown of 141.86. In this case, the target is 142.41. On the other hand, there is a short-term upward movement and consolidation in the range of 142.41 - 142.81. For the potential value for the top, we consider the level 143.48. Upon reaching which, we expect a downward pullback.

A short-term downward movement is possible in the range of 141.31 - 141.04. If the last value breaks down, a deep correction will emerge. Here, the target is 140.65, which is the key support level for the top.

The main trend is the upward structure from August 24

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 141.88 Take profit: 142.40

Buy: 142.42 Take profit: 142.80

Sell: 141.30 Take profit: 141.05

Sell: 141.02 Take profit: 140.65

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Analytics and trading signals for beginners. How to trade the EUR/USD on September 2? Plan for opening and closing trades

Hourly chart of the EUR/USD pair

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The EUR/USD pair continued to move down last night and reached the 1.1891 level, which we mentioned as a target in yesterday's articles. Today, the pair has new support and resistance levels (updated every day). Therefore, we can draw the following conclusions based on the results of the past 12 hours of trading. First, novice traders can close short positions opened on the signal of overcoming the upward trend line. The profit is about 60 points. Secondly, traders can leave sell positions open until the MACD indicator turns up. Since it is already morning, which means that the European markets will start opening, we can expect a resumption of the trend movement, and it is currently descending. Third, the price also reached the 1.1903 level, which has long been considered as the upper line of the side channel. Thus, we believe that if the 1.1903 level is overcome, then the downward movement can continue on Wednesday, September 2. Novice traders need to decide which option they are going to stick to for today.

Important reports and events from the European Union are not scheduled for September 2. A report on retail sales will be published in Germany, but we do not believe that the market will particularly react to it. Thus, we recommend novice traders to focus on the ADP report on changes in the number of employees in the private sector for August. This report shows how the number of employed Americans has changed in a month. Recall that the last report (for July) was projected with an increase of 1.5 million, but in reality the increase was only 167,000 which is much worse. Today, a growth of 950,000-1,000,000 new workers is projected. Therefore, if this figure is exceeded, then we can expect the US dollar to grow further. Otherwise, the US currency will not receive support from the macroeconomic background. But even so, the euro/dollar pair can still continue to fall (US dollar growth), as technical factors speak in favor of this option. In general, the dollar has not been in demand in the foreign exchange market for several months, but it is still able to show growth for several consecutive days.

Possible scenarios for September 2:

1) Novice traders are not recommended to consider buying the pair at this time, since it has settled below the upward trend line, so the trend has now changed to a downward trend. However, the upward movement may resume in the near future, and the upward trend line may be realigned, changing the inclination of its angle no less. However, at the moment there are no prerequisites for implementing this option. They will appear if the MACD indicator moves up, after which a strong upward movement begins.

2) Sales look more relevant now, but, as mentioned above, the overall low demand for the US dollar and the possible resumption of the upward trend with a realignment of the trendline may result in cancelling the scenario with a new downward trend. In any case, novice traders had a great opportunity to reach the 1.1891 level. Now they can open short positions before the MACD indicator turns up. They can wait for a round of upward correction (if there is one) and, when it is completed, resume trading downward with targets at 1.1872 and 1.1832.

On the chart:

Support and Resistance Levels are the Levels that serve as targets when buying or selling the pair. You can place Take Profit near these levels.

Red lines are the channels or trend lines that display the current trend and show in which direction it is better to trade now.

Up/down arrows show where you should sell or buy after reaching or breaking through particular levels.

The MACD indicator consists of a histogram and a signal line. When they cross, this is a signal to enter the market. It is recommended to use this indicator in combination with trend lines (channels and trend lines).

Important announcements and economic reports that you can always find in the news calendar can seriously influence the trajectory of a currency pair. Therefore, at the time of their release, we recommended trading as carefully as possible or exit the market in order to avoid a sharp price reversal.

Beginners on Forex should remember that not every single trade has to be profitable. The development of a clear strategy and money management are the key to success in trading over a long period of time.

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Control zones for AUD/USD on 09/02/2020

Yesterday's decline during the US trading session allowed us to form a correctional pattern. The determining support is the WCZ 1/2 0.7325-0.7316. The level of 0.7322 is within this zone, so there is a 90% probability that we will reach the indicated level.

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Now, if testing the Weekly Control Zone 1/2 leads to the formation of an "absorption pattern" to buy, the long position will become the main one in the second half of the week. The growth target, in turn, will be the high of the current week.

To form a reversal pattern, it is necessary to close today's trading below the WCZ 1/2. This will indicate a change in priority, and sales will come forward. There is a 30% chance that this will be implemented, which makes it an auxiliary one.

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Daily CZ - daily control zone. The zone formed by important data from the futures market, which changes several times a year.

Weekly CZ - weekly control zone. The zone formed by important marks of the futures market, which change several times a year.

Monthly CZ - monthly control zone. The zone, which reflects the average volatility over the past year.

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Elliott wave analysis of GBP/JPY for September 2, 2020

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EUR/JPY seems to have completed wave B/ and wave C/ may drop lower to 124.41. We may see the expected drop to 124.41 over the coming days. Once the final leg of wave 2/ is completed near 124.41, a new impulsive rally higher to resistance at 129.23 is expected.

Short-term support is seen at 126.10 and again at 125.77 on the way lower towards 124.41

R3: 142.73

R2: 142.28

R1: 141.98

Pivot: 141.33

S1: 140.88

S2: 140.30

S3: 139.90

Trading recommendation:

We will buy GBP again at 138.50

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Elliott wave analysis of EUR/JPY for September 2, 2020

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EUR/JPY seems to have completed wave B/ and wave C/ may drop lower to 124.41. We may see the expected drop to 124.41 over the coming days. Once the final leg of wave 2/ is completed near 124.41, a new impulsive rally higher to resistance at 129.23 is expected.

Short-term support is seen at 126.10 and again at 125.77 on the way lower towards 124.41

R3: 127.05

R2: 126.74

R1: 126.52

Pivot: 126.27

S1: 126.10

S2: 125.77

S3:125.34

Trading recommendation:

We will buy EUR at 124.50

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Control zones for EURUSD on 09/02/20

Today, the pair is trading within the WCZ 1/2 1.1911-1.1901. Opening the European session below this zone and closing the US session with it will allow us to consider sales up to the weekly control zone of 1.1811-1.1791 in the second half of this week.

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It is important to note that yesterday, a false breakout pattern formed on the monthly high. If the fall develops, the downward movement may become the main one in the first half of September.

To resume the upward movement, you will need to close today's trading above the WCZ 1/2. This will open the way for updating the monthly high. Working in an upward direction is stll a priority as long as the daily trade closes above the 1.1901 level.

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Daily CZ - daily control zone. The area formed by important data from the futures market, which changes several times a year.

Weekly CZ - weekly control zone. The zone formed by important marks of the futures market, which changes several times a year.

Monthly CZ - monthly control zone. The zone, which is a reflection of the average volatility over the past year.

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Technical Analysis of GBP/USD for September 2, 2020

Technical Market Outlook:

The GBP/USD pair has made a new swing high at the level of 1.3289 and reversed back into the main channel again. The immediate support for bulls is seen at the level of 1.3355 and only a clear violation of this level will be an intraday bearish signal. Weekly and monthly time frame trend remains up, so if the bullish pressure sustain, then the next target for bulls is seen at the level of 1.3447.

Weekly Pivot Points:

WR3 - 1.3797

WR2 - 1.3564

WR1 - 1.3482

Weekly Pivot - 1.3256

WS1 - 1.3192

WS2 - 1.2962

WS3 - 1.2882

Trading Recommendations:

On the GBP/USD pair the main, multi-year trend is down, which can be confirmed by the down candles on the monthly time frame chart. Nevertheless, the recent rally form the multi-year lows seen at the level of 1.1404 has been successful and the trend might be reversing. The key long-term technical resistance is seen at the level of 1.3518. Only if one of these levels is clearly violated, the main trend might reverse (1.3518) or accelerate towards the key long-term technical support is seen at the level of 1.1404.

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Technical Analysis of EUR/USD for September 2, 2020

Technical Market Outlook:

The EUR/USD pair has hit the level of 1.2000 (the high was made at 1.2010) and immediately reversed. The nearest technical support seen at the level of 1.1965 had been violated as well, so the market might now come off the overbought conditions. The next technical support is seen at the level of 1.1908. and 1.1832. Nevertheless, the weekly and monthly time frame trend remains up and he next target for bulls is the swing high seen at the level of 1.2089

Weekly Pivot Points:

WR3 - 1.2130

WR2 - 1.2019

WR1 - 1.1975

Weekly Pivot - 1.1859

WS1 - 1.1812

WS2 - 1.1706

WS3 - 1.1664

Trading Recommendations:

On the EUR/USD pair the main trend is up, which can be confirmed by almost 10 weekly up candles on the weekly time frame chart and 4 monthly up candles on the monthly time frame chart. This means any corrections should be used to buy the dips. The key long-term technical support is seen at the level of 1.1445. The key long-term technical resistance is seen at the level of 1.2555.

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Technical Analysis of BTC/USD for September 2, 2020

Crypto Industry News:

Three of the "big four" Australian banks are forming a new organization called Lygon to digitize bank guarantees using blockchain technology. Bank guarantees are a formal contract between a debtor and a financial institution. It assures the debtor and the lender that the debt will be paid on time under all circumstances.

Australia and New Zealand Banking Group Limited, Commonwealth Bank of Australia and Westpac Banking Corporation, along with two other shareholders - Australian shopping malls company Scentre Group and technology behemoth IBM - form the company after a successful pilot last year.

The last of Australia's four largest banks, National Australia Bank, also tested the technology last year, but pulled out of the project in the wake of the ongoing coronavirus pandemic, Financial Review reports on September 1.

Lygon's main goal is to digitize commercial rental guarantees to save commercial owners the time and costs associated with operational processes, while at the same time providing security for small businesses in the short term, said Lygon CEO Nigel Dobson.

Bank guarantees today are entirely paper-based and can take several weeks to prepare and deliver. Five Lygon backers intend to use IBM Hyperledger technology to digitize bank guarantees and make issuing them a one-day process. The company is expected to start operating in September.

Technical Market Outlook:

The BTC/USD pair has been capped at the technical resistance seen at the level of $12,004, but the short-term up trend should continue. The recently violated level of $11,785 will now act as an intraday technical support for the price. The momentum is strong and positive, so the bulls are now in control of the market. The key supply zone is still located between the levels of $12,269 - $13,429 and only a clear breakout through this zone will be seen at an end of the corrective cycle. The weekly time frame trend remains up.

Weekly Pivot Points:

WR3 - $12,658

WR2 - $12,221

WR1 - $11,935

Weekly Pivot - $11,435

WS1 - $11,232

WS2 - $10,778

WS3 - $10,510

Trading Recommendations:

The weekly trend on the BTC/USD pair remains up and there are no signs of trend reversal, so buy orders are preferred in the mid-term. All the dynamic correction are still being used to buy the dips. The next mid-term target for bulls is seen at the level of $13,712. The key mid-term technical support is seen at the level of $10,463.

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Technical Analysis of ETH/USD for September 2, 2020

Crypto Industry News:

As announced in April, Binance has launched the main network of its Smart Chain blockchain with support for smart contracts, operating in parallel with Binance Chain. Binance Smart Chain comes with an Ethereum Virtual Machine compatible environment that allows Solidity developers to move to the new chain without much hassle. The new blockchain will be interoperable with Binance Chain. Binance DEX will also remain in place.

Binance promises the blockchain will have cheap transaction fees "as low as 1 cent" and a 3-second blocking time. Blockchain uses a variant of Delegated Proof of Bid called Proof-of-Staked-Authority. The more BNB is owned, the more votes each participant has - which would naturally favor Binance.

Several DeFi projects in Ethereum (such as Aave, 1inch, and dForce) are reportedly working on creating new protocols in the chain. Binance has never tried to hide its DeFi ambitions, often pushing for BNB to be adopted as a backing asset in non-Ethereum protocols such as Equilibrium and Kava.

The lack of easy interoperability and strong market demand meant BNB largely remained excluded from the main DeFi scene on Ethereum. The launch of the Smart Chain appears to take the opposite approach - instead of bringing BNB to DeFi, the company is trying to move DeFi to BNB.

It remains to be seen whether the ecosystem will be able to compete with Ethereum's significant network effects despite its promise of a faster blockchain and direct support. Meanwhile, Binance has started to open up to DeFi on its main exchange, offering tokens like DAI, Wrapped BTC, and newly released projects like yEarn.

Technical Market Outlook:

The ETH/USD continues to move higher towards the first target seen at the round level of $500. The recent high has been made at the level of $487.85 as the price has broken out of the parallel channel. The zone between the levels of $442.93 - $447.26 will now act as a demand zone for bulls. The momentum is strong and positive, so it supports the short-term bullish outlook.

Weekly Pivot Points:

WR3 - $507.05

WR2 - $468.00

WR1 - $450.50

Weekly Pivot - $409.09

WS1 - $391.88

WS2 - $350.52

WS3 - $335.87

Trading Recommendations:

The weekly and monthly time frame trend on the ETH/USD pair remains up and there are no signs of trend reversal, so buy orders are preferred in the mid-term. All the dynamic corrections are still being used to buy the dips. The next mid-term target for bulls is seen at the level of $500. The key mid-term technical support is seen at the level of $364.95.

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Forecast for EUR/USD on September 2, 2020

EUR/USD

It seems that the euro has begun to justify our hopes for a reversal. On Tuesday, the price slightly fell short of the nearest target level of 1.2040 and, falling, formed a double divergence with the Marlin oscillator on the daily chart. The price returns to the range of uncertainty at 1.1710-1.1905.

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Now we expect the price to reach the lower limit of this range, which is approaching the MACD indicator line. After setting the price under the MACD line, the scenario of a medium-term decline for the euro will be revealed.

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The four-hour chart shows that the Marlin oscillator attacks the border of the bears' territory, which increasingly shifts the trend to a decline further. This trend will be confirmed after the price settles under the MACD line at this time scale, below the 1.1860 mark.

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Forecast for GBP/USD on September 2, 2020

GBP/USD

Yesterday's trading appeared like a high shadow on the daily chart, the target level of 1.3515 was not reached. The Marlin divergence has not yet formed, but if today is a black candle, it may just form. In this case, we are waiting for the price at the first target of 1.3213 at the Fibonacci level of 38.2%.

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There are no reversal signs on the four-hour chart yet. To do this, the signal line of the Marlin oscillator must move into the zone of negative values, which could happen earlier, or the price should overcome the 23.6% Fibonacci level at 1.3328, which may happen later, but it will become a more confident reversal sign.

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We are waiting for the price to settle under the Fibonacci level of 23.6%. Afterwards, the price will attack the 38.2% Fibonacci level (1.3213).

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Forecast for AUD/USD on September 2, 2020

AUD/USD

The Australian dollar did not have enough strength to reach the target level of 0.7395 yesterday. The triple divergence with the Marlin oscillator has retained its development and will raise the pressure on the price with each bar. The first target is 0.7296, then the price will have to overcome the support of the MACD line around 0.7240 to gain a foothold in the medium-term downward trend.

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The four-hour chart shows that the Marlin oscillator went ahead with the decline by charging onto the border of the territory of negative values, that is, in the downward trend zone.

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The MACD line is approaching the first target level of 0.7296. It is possible that the price will meet these lines at the intersection of the two lines. Accordingly, staying under the lines will increase the price's chances before it attacks 0.7240.

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Forecast for USD/JPY on September 2, 2020

USD/JPY

The Japanese yen showed a range of 56 points yesterday, at the end of the session it was only 3 points higher than the opening price. The balance indicator line served as resistance on the daily chart.

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Today, the price has moved above the balance line while the signal line of the Marlin oscillator is in the zone of positive values, but further growth is hindered by the situation on the four-hour timeframe.

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Here, the price decides to overcome the MACD line around the 106.20 mark, but if it fails, the price could fall again with even greater determination to reach the target of 104.96 – the lower border of the ascending price channel (daily).

So, setting the price above 106.20 opens the goal of 106.62, then the second goal of 107.00 opens.

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Hot forecast and trading signals for GBP/USD on September 2. COT report. Members of the Bank of England Monetary Committee

GBP/USD 1H

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The GBP/USD pair reached this week's first resistance level at 1.3451 on September 1 and then it began a new round of downward correction. Although this round may turn out to be the same as all the previous ones, which is very small. However, now traders have an ascending channel at their disposal, near the lower line of which they can expect to turn up and resume the path to growth. One way or another, there is still an upward trend within this channel. After a whole month of opportunities, the bears have gone back to rest and are not making any attempts to seize the initiative. It seems that the US dollar does not have much to count on as long as the bulls do not start taking profits on long positions again.

GBP/USD 15M

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Both linear regression channels are directed upwards on the 15-minute timeframe. The latest Commitments of Traders (COT) report for the British pound, which was released last Friday, was completely neutral. Despite the fact that the UK currency resumed its growth against the dollar and continues to do so at the beginning of the new week, professional traders did not open new Buy-contracts during the reporting week of August 19-25. On the contrary, 9,700 Buy-contracts and 9,100 Sell-contracts were reduced. Thus, the net position for the non-commercial category of traders has slightly fallen. However, this change is so insignificant that it makes no sense to draw conclusions from it. Thus, the general mood of large traders remains the same. The last four trading days were not included in the latest COT report, and the British currency actually became more expensive again on such days. Thus, we can see a serious increase in the net position of non-commercial traders in the new COT report, which, in turn, will confirm the intention of large bulls to continue investing in the pound, while getting rid of the US dollar.

The fundamentals of Tuesday, September 1, boiled down to a few reports from the UK and the US. We have already figured out that the ISM report for the US manufacturing sector supported the dollar in the afternoon. Prior to that, the UK published the PMI for the manufacturing sector, which showed the lowest decrease compared to July - 55.2, so traders did not react to it. This is where the important economic news concerning the pound or dollar ran out. The first place was taken by political, social, epidemiological problems, as well as general economic ones (such as falling yields on US government bonds or the absence of an agreement between Democrats and Republicans on a new package of financial assistance to the US economy). Members of the Bank of England Monetary Committee, Andrew Haldane and Ben Broadbent, are set to speak on Wednesday, September 2. The comments of the BoE board members may give us a peek on future changes in the monetary policy of the British central bank. In particular, everyone is interested in the answer to the question whether negative rates will be introduced in 2020 and whether the quantitative incentive program will be expanded even more. However, just like before, the general background from America will take precedence. We have already found out more than once that traders are not interested in the problems of Britain and the pound.

Based on the above, we have two trading ideas for September 2:

1) Buyers have been active in recent days and are pushing the pair up again. At the moment, the price is still trading within the ascending channel, but the correction has begun. Thus, new long deals can be considered near the lower border of the channel or near the Kijun-sen line, with targets at the resistance levels of 1.3451 and 1.1355. Take Profit in this case will be from 65 to 165 points.

2) Bears have released the initiative from their hands again, thus, it is now recommended to consider short positions again after the price settles below the rising channel and the Kijun-sen line (1.3303) with the target of the support area 1.3156-1.3182. Take Profit in this case will be about 110 points.

Explanations for illustrations:

Support and Resistance Levels are the levels that serve as targets when buying or selling the pair. You can place Take Profit near these levels.

Kijun-sen and Senkou Span B lines are lines of the Ichimoku indicator transferred to the hourly timeframe from the 4-hour one.

Support and resistance areas are areas from which the price has repeatedly rebounded off.

Yellow lines are trend lines, trend channels and any other technical patterns.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Hot forecast and trading signals for EUR/USD on September 2. COT report. Euro reached the $1.20 level. This has not happened

EUR/USD 1H

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The euro/dollar pair hit the psychological level of $1.20 on the hourly timeframe on September 1 and, rebounding off it, began to correct. However, given the general mood of market participants, the downward correction may not be too strong again. For example, there may be a rebound from the support area of 1.1885-1.1909, after which the upward movement will resume again. Thus, we recommend opening new long positions after rebounding from important supports or after overcoming important resistances. Unfortunately, there is still no upward trend line available to traders. More precisely, it can be built, but its angle would be too sharp of an inclination and will be broken literally by the first more or less significant correction. Thus, we believe that such a trend line does not make any sense.

EUR/USD 15M

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Both channels of linear regression are still directed upwards on the 15-minute timeframe, signaling that there is no correction even in the most short-term plan. A new Commitments of traders (COT) report was released last Friday. Take note that its character has not changed at all compared to previous COT reports. Despite the fact that the euro/dollar has been trading within the side channel for more than a month, professional traders continue to increase their net position. In other words, the number of Buy-contracts for non-commercial traders (the most important group of traders) has been growing, while the number of Sell-contracts is decreasing. The non-commercial category of traders opened 1,302 Buy-contracts and closed 11,310 Sell-contracts during the reporting week of August 19-25. Thus, the net position (the difference between the number of Buy and Sell contracts) increased by 12,000. Therefore, we can draw the same conclusions as we did both a week ago and two weeks ago: professional traders continue to view the euro as a more attractive currency to invest in than the US dollar. The situation did not change during the last three trading days of last week, which were not included in the latest COT report, since the euro was still getting more expensive. The euro continues to grow at the beginning of the new trading week. Yesterday was the final day to be included in the new COT report, which will be released this Friday.

Several rather important and interesting reports were published in the eurozone on September 1, Tuesday. However, as we assumed a day earlier, traders did not particularly react to any of them. Business activity indices in the manufacturing sectors of Germany and the EU remained practically unchanged in August compared to the previous month. The same can be said for the unemployment rate in Germany. In the European Union, unemployment rose to only 7.9% in July (forecast 8%), while European inflation slowed down to -0.2% y/y. In fact, deflation began in the eurozone - a fall in prices. The core consumer price index fell to 0.4% y/y. In general, you can consider the EU data as weak, but traders did not react to it in any way. A restrained reaction was only followed by the US ISM Manufacturing PMI, which rose from 54.2 to 56.0. The US dollar has risen in price by literally 60-70 points after this data was released. Today we recommend traders to pay attention to the ADP report on the level of employment in the US private sector for August. The strong value of the report may trigger new growth in the US currency.

Based on the above, we have two trading ideas for September 2:

1) The bulls, having reached the 1.2000 level, began to take profits on long positions, which led to a correction. Nevertheless, buy orders remain relevant at this time (as long as the price is above the Kijun-sen line). Thus, we recommend looking for new buy signals. One of the possible options could be a rebound from the support area of 1.1885-1.1909 or the Kijun-sen line (1.1886), which will allow opening new longs with targets at 1.1961 and 1.2020. Take Profit in this case will be from 30 to 90 points.

2) Bears will have a new opportunity to start a new downward trend if they manage to gain a foothold below the Senkou Span B line (1.1860). In this case, we recommend opening short positions with targets at 1.1803 and the support area at 1.1705-1.1728. In this case, the potential Take Profit is from 40 to 110 points.

Explanations for illustrations:

Support and Resistance Levels are the levels that serve as targets when buying or selling the pair. You can place Take Profit near these levels.

Kijun-sen and Senkou Span B lines are lines of the Ichimoku indicator transferred to the hourly timeframe from the 4-hour one.

Support and resistance areas are areas from which the price has repeatedly rebounded off.

Yellow lines are trend lines, trend channels and any other technical patterns.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Overview of the GBP/USD pair. September 2. Negotiations on the relationship between Britain and the European Union can begin

4-hour timeframe

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Technical details:

Higher linear regression channel: direction - upward.

Lower linear regression channel: direction - upward.

Moving average (20; smoothed) - upward.

CCI: 79.5130

The British pound resumed the upward trend and continues to break all growth records. At the moment, this currency is close to two-year highs against the dollar and does not stop there for a second. There was no normal correction within the trend that started on June 29. We have repeatedly said that the British currency is too overvalued at this time (from our point of view), and the American currency is undervalued. Despite the huge number of problems in America, both economic and non-economic, we should not forget that the UK economy also contracted quite seriously in the second quarter. In addition, everything is heading towards "hard Brexit". This was the original idea of Boris Johnson, and he continues to stick to his plan now. The most interesting thing is that the European Union seems to have initially expected to conclude an agreement with London. However, seven rounds of negotiations, which ended in nothing, dispelled all myths and hopes about this issue. The latest comments from all those involved reflect utter demoralization. Michel Barnier has repeatedly accused London of not wanting to give in, and in his last comment, he said that "the negotiations are moving in the opposite direction". The French Foreign Ministry officially accused London of delaying the talks. Germany refused to hold new talks at the highest diplomatic level. Thus, it seems that the Kingdom and the Alliance will not just complete the "divorce" on December 31, 2020, but will also remain in a very difficult relationship. It is no secret that it is the UK that is less profitable to "divorce" without an agreement. The EU has a stronger economy and will more easily take the blow of diverging from Britain in different directions. Boris Johnson seems to have understood this from the very beginning. The British Prime Minister seemed to think that if you negotiate from a weak position, you will not be able to get any favorable agreement. So Johnson went the way of the bluff. He pretended that Britain is ready to terminate all agreements existing between the country and the bloc. And let the British economy suffer the most. On the one hand, his bluff was played, since now everyone believes that the UK will leave the EU without any agreement. On the other hand, the EU is also not making concessions, probably understanding what London is trying to achieve. Thus, in this situation, we believe that the parties will start new negotiations next year, when the "divorce" will be officially completed and everything can be started from scratch.

Meanwhile, the States are preparing to approve the first American vaccine against the "coronavirus", without waiting for the completion of all the necessary tests. The head of the FDA in the United States, Stephen Hahn, said that the request for approval of a particular drug should come from the developer. "If the developer makes a similar request to us before the third stage of testing (large-scale human testing) is completed, we can approve the drug," Khan said. And in the same interview, Stephen Khan said that the approval of the new vaccine can not get under pressure from US President Donald Trump, who previously promised the vaccine to Americans until November 3. "This will not be a political decision," Khan said. However, we believe that this will be a "political decision". Trump, who just criticized the Russian vaccine a few weeks ago, which also did not pass all the necessary tests, can now praise and promote the American vaccine, similar to the Russian one. One of the main challenges in developing any vaccine is time. For example, large-scale human testing involves not only testing itself, but also identifying side effects and finding an answer to the question: is the vaccine suitable for all categories of people? It can take up to a year to collect this type of information, as many side effects can occur in a few months. Thus, a truly safe and effective vaccine should not be expected before 2021. Trump's haste is clear even to a child. The American President feels that he is losing the election, so he decided to focus on an issue that could turn the attitude of American voters on its head. We have little doubt that the coronavirus vaccine in America will be approved before November 3.

As for the political ratings of Donald Trump, they remain very low, as for a candidate for a second term of the presidency. For example, a little more than two months before the election, the American magazine The Economist gives an 87% chance of winning Joe Biden and a 98% chance of winning the general vote. According to the magazine's analysts, Biden can get 340 votes, while 270 will be enough to win. Other forecasts of American publications also predict Biden's victory, although not so devastating. On average, Biden continues to outperform Trump in the ratings by 10-12%.

From all of the above, it follows that the situation in the United States remains tense and does not improve, and does not change. However, things are not getting any more optimistic in Britain either. So we are very surprised to see how much the British pound is growing. However, the case is the euro currency. In the European Union, everything is relatively calm, GDP losses in the second quarter are relatively small (relative to American losses), and the "coronavirus" was still suppressed. But the British economy leaves many more questions unanswered. However, it is the US currency that continues to fall in price, and very much so. Thus, in the current situation, we continue to recommend traders to trade on the trend. The fundamental background does not speak clearly in favor of the pound, however, market participants continue to buy this currency. This is especially true for large market participants and non-commercial traders. Most likely, the new COT report will show a strong increase in the net position of the "Non-commercial" category. From a technical point of view, both linear regression channels continue to be directed upwards.

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The average volatility of the GBP/USD pair is currently 124 points per day. For the pound/dollar pair, this value is "high". On Wednesday, September 2, therefore, we expect movement within the channel, limited by the levels of 1.3257 and 1.3508. A reversal of the Heiken Ashi indicator to the top will indicate a possible resumption of the upward trend.

Nearest support levels:

S1 – 1.3367

S2 – 1.3306

S3 – 1.3245

Nearest resistance levels:

R1 – 1,.3428

R2 – 1.3489

R3 – 1.3550

Trading recommendations:

The GBP/USD pair started a round of correction movement on the 4-hour timeframe. Thus, today it is recommended to wait for the completion of this correction and open new long positions with the goals of 1.3367 and 1.3428 after the reversal of the Heiken Ashi indicator upward. It is recommended to trade the pair down with the targets of 1.3184 and 1.3123 if the price returns to the area below the moving average line.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Overview of the EUR/USD pair. September 2. New factors of pressure on the dollar.

4-hour timeframe

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Technical details:

Higher linear regression channel: direction - upward.

Lower linear regression channel: direction - upward.

Moving average (20; smoothed) - sideways.

CCI: 46.4197

For almost a whole month, the EUR/USD currency pair was trading in a fairly narrow price range, which could not be clearly called either a flat or an upward trend. However, it seems that now this period and segment is over, and the price has again rushed up. Most analysts have long agreed that the US currency, despite all the types of crises that have engulfed the United States at this time, is highly undervalued. Yes, there are enough problems in America right now, however, we should not forget that the rest of the world also suffered from the pandemic and the "coronavirus crisis". The growth of the European currency by 12 cents in three months shows everything as if a revolution has already taken place in the United States, and the economy has collapsed. Thus, we continue to believe that the US dollar has lost enough in recent months and a strong correction is still brewing. However, the problem is that everything will depend on large traders, who may have their own decision-making logic. For example, one of the big problems for the US currency at this time is the fall in the yield of US government bonds. What does this mean in practice? Many countries (for example, China), many large investors, companies and banks prefer to keep their capital in the securities of stable states and strong economies. Thus, the fall in the yield of these very securities causes a drop in their attractiveness as an investment tool for international investors. Demand is falling, securities are sold, new ones are not placed, and accordingly, the demand for the US dollar is falling on the international market, since it is no longer needed in such quantities to buy new securities. Thus, in addition to the "four types of crisis" and the impending fifth, the United States now faces another new problem that may negatively affect the exchange rate of its national currency. The most interesting thing is that what is happening at this time is absolutely in the hands of Donald Trump. We are referring to the fall in the dollar. Recall that from the very beginning of his reign, Trump dreamed of a "cheap" dollar in order to more easily service the national debt and help national exporters. And now, at the end of his presidential term, when the national debt has grown to an unimaginable $ 30 trillion, inflated by several trillion dollars in just a year and may well continue to grow further, Trump's dream has come true. Will it help him in his desire and intention to be re-elected for a second term?

In addition to the fall in US Treasury yields, the Fed has made various speeches over the past few days. It all started last Thursday with Jerome Powell, who did not say anything optimistic. He only said that now inflation in America will be allowed to grow above 2%. Everything would be fine, however, this level of inflation in the United States has not been seen for a long time. Thus, the decision to abandon targeting inflation at 2% is about the same as the statement: "We will tighten monetary policy as soon as GDP returns to pre-crisis levels and we can completely defeat the pandemic." It is obvious that in solving these two problems, it will be possible to tighten monetary policy, but when will this happen? At least in a few years. So it is with inflation. The fact that the Fed will now allow it to grow to 3% does not mean anything concrete. All the same, as before, the FOMC will decide whether to tighten monetary policy at this time or not. The performances at the beginning of the week by Raphael Bostic and Richard Clarida were overrated. In fact, the heads of the Atlanta-Fed and Deputy Jerome Powell also did not tell the markets anything super interesting. Clarida said that the Fed is not going to raise the key rate just because the unemployment rate has started to fall, but also does not intend to introduce negative interest rates, and also doubts the effectiveness of controlling the yield curve of government bonds. On the contrary, Raphael Bostic touched upon the topic of coronavirus in his speech, noting that high levels of morbidity in the United States slow down the economic recovery and create additional risks. Which of this information was not previously known to the markets? Thus, we believe that the fall in the US currency in the last few days is not directly related to the speeches of the Fed representatives. Most likely, their rhetoric only added to the overall unattractive picture of the current state of the US economy and its prospects for the coming months and years. Naturally, the factor of hopelessness of the American economy has further lowered the demand for the dollar and American government securities. It should also be recalled that mass rallies and protests continue in the States related to a new incident between the police and a black man, which ended with the shooting and serious injury of the latter. At least this time the whole country was not engulfed in mass riots.

Meanwhile, the total number of recorded cases of "coronavirus" in the United States has exceeded 6 million. However, don't let this figure be misleading. It does not reflect the number of people who are currently being treated, but the total number of cases since the beginning of the pandemic for 6 months. Second, there has been a reduction in the number of new infections in recent weeks (according to data from Johns Hopkins University). For example, on August 30 and 31, 35 and 33 thousand people were infected in the country, which is twice lower than the values that were observed a month ago. Unfortunately, this factor does not yet provide any support to the US currency.

Meanwhile, Donald Trump continues his election campaign, which is reduced to calling on his supporters to chant "Trump for another 12 years" and criticizing his main opponent, Joe Biden. This time, Trump said that "Biden is a very weak person and is controlled like a puppet." "If the radical left forces win, they will take control of your cities, it will be a real revolution," the current US President believes. Trump was also asked what kind of people controlling Biden is he talking about? "People you've never heard of. People who are in the shadows. People who control the protests in the streets," the American President responded, who never provides proof of his words.

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The volatility of the euro/dollar currency pair as of September 2 is 99 points and is characterized as "high". Thus, we expect the pair to move today between the levels of 1.1824 and 1.2022. A reversal of the Heiken Ashi indicator to the top signals a possible resumption of the upward movement, as well as a rebound of the price from the moving average line.

Nearest support levels:

S1 – 1.1841

S2 – 1.1719

S3 – 1.1597

Nearest resistance levels:

R1 – 1.1963

R2 – 1.2085

R3 – 1.2207

Trading recommendations:

The EUR/USD pair started a downward correction. Thus, today you can continue to trade for an increase with the goals of 1.1963 and 1.2022, if the Heiken Ashi indicator turns upward or a rebound from the moving is performed. If the price is fixed below the moving average, it is recommended to trade lower with the goals of the Murray levels "5/8" and "4/8"-1.1841 and 1.1719.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com