BITCOIN Analysis for February 16, 2018

Bitcoin has been quite indecisive today after recent impulsive bullish gains since it bounced off the $6,000 support area. The price managed to break above $10,000 price area but could not sustain the bullish momentum which led to uncertainty along the way. Recently, due to ease in Chinese regulation for the Bitcoin, the price has been showing steady bullish gains. Moreover, Chinese bulls are expected to push the price much impulsively in the coming days. As for the current scenario, the daily close above or below $10,000 price area today will lead to a further definite trend in the coming days. On the other hand, certain correction is expected if the price breaks up higher with a target towards $12,000 price area.

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Fundamental Analysis of AUD/JPY for February 16, 2018

AUD/JPY is currently residing at the edge of 84.50 where the price is struggling to proceed lower under extremely volatile circumstances. AUD has been quite mixed amid recent economic reports which made the currency lose momentum against JPY. However, JPY could not sustain the constant bearish pressure since it bounced off the 89.00 resistance area. Today, Reserve Bank of Australia's Governor Lowe spoke about the recent economic developments including a decrease in the Unemployment Rate while addressing the inflation issue which is running under 2% and minor growth of Household Income as expected. The neutral statement from Governor Philip Lowe pushed the market into indecision whereas JPY amid recent mixed economic reports gained ground against AUD quite well. Recently, Japan's Revised Industrial Production report was published with an increase to 2.9% which was expected to be unchanged at 2.7% and Prelim GDP report showed a significant decrease to 0.1% from the previous value of 0.6% which was expected to be at 0.2%. So amid mixed economic reports, JPY has been the dominant currency in the pair while AUD is struggling with certain indecision and worse economic reports. To sum up, JPY is expected to gain further momentum in the pair until AUD comes up with a positive economic report or event to support its gains in the coming days.

Now let us look at the technical chart. The price is currently residing below 84.50 price area from where it is expected to proceed lower towards 82.00 support area. Certain correction can be observed along the way towards 82.00 support area. As the price remains below 85.50 which is the recent lower high, the price is expected to follow the bearish bias.

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Global macro overview for 16/02/2018

The agreement between the OPEC countries and Russia regarding the limitation of oil production has been going on for over a year and it can be said that the goals set at the beginning were achieved partially. First of all, the oil market was balanced, which was clearly supported by the global economic recovery. The demand for black gold remains strong, and the latest example is the data from India, where in January imports reached a record level of 4.93 million barrels daily, which means an increase of 13.6% compared to the previous year. As a result, global gas reserves, which dropped by 154 million barrels last year, are only 52 million barrels above the five-year average. This drop is supported by the stable ratio of excess demand growth over the growth of supply, which has been going on since the beginning of last year. As a result, the number of oil tankers off the coast of Singapore and Malaysia fell from 40 in mid-2016 to less than 15 in February this year. In addition, if they were filled to the brim before and they are not now. The second important goal of the cartel was the desire to change the price relationship in the futures market, so that the price of the raw material with immediate delivery was not lower than the price with deferred date of completion. This scheme is called contago and encourages oil storage. Currently, however, the price structure is reversed, what is called backwardation and makes the storage of oil for its later sale lose its meaning. Thus, OPEC may be happy with itself, but the main problem is the rapidly growing production in the US, which has already overtaken the export leader Saudi Arabia, and later this year may overtake Russia and take the place of the largest producer in the world. This means that the barely achieved balance on the market is fragile. In this context, the latest signals from OPEC are not surprised that there will be no sudden termination of the agreement, and work on a long-term form of cooperation with Russia is underway.

Let's now take a look at the Crude Oil technical picture at the H4 time frame. The market has bounced from the support at the level of 58.06 again and moved higher towards the level of 62.10. The momentum is still strong and points to the north, so there is a possibility of another rally higher if the level of 62.10 is violated. On the other hand, the nearest technical support is seen at the level of 61.08.

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Fundamental Analysis of NZD/USD for February 16, 2018

NZD/USD has been quite impulsive with the bullish gains recently which has lead the price to retest and reject off the 0.7450 resistance area. NZD has been quite positive with the economic reports this week while USD was struggling with the mixed economic reports. Recently, Inflation Expectation report was published in New Zealand with a slight increase to 2.1% from the previous value of 2.0% and FPI report showed a positive change to 1.2% from the previous negative value of -0.8%. The positive inflation report helped NZD to gain impulsive momentum which resulted in impulsive domination over USD this week. Today, New Zealand Business Manufacturing Index report was published with an increase to 55.6 from the previous figure of 51.1. However, NZD could not sustain the gain well enough, as a result NZD lost some grounds against USD after a non-volatile intraday bullish trend in place. On the other hand, today US Building Permits report is yet to be published which is expected to show a slight decrease to 1.29M from the previous figure of 1.30M, Housing Starts is expected to increase to 1.23M from the previous figure of 1.19M, Import Prices is expected to increase to 0.6% from the previous value of 0.1%, and Prelim UOM Consumer Sentiment report is expected to have a slight decrease to 95.4 from the previous figure of 95.7. To sum up, any positive economic report on the USD side which are yet to be published, will be able to push the price much lower against NZD that might lead to steady bearish pressure in the coming days.

Now let us look at the technical chart. The price is expected to proceed lower towards the support area 0.7250 as today the price rejected off the important event level of 0.7450 resistance area with a daily close. The trend has been quite volatile recently, so the pair is expected to trade under bearish pressure in the coming days. As the price remains below 0.7450, the bearish bias is expected to continue further.

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Global macro overview for 16/02/2018

The UK Retail Sales With Auto Fuel released this morning has been worse than market expectations. The global investors expected an increase of 0.5% after a -1.4% drop last month, but the numbers revealed were at the level of 0.1% only. Moreover, on a yearly basis, the figures increased only from 1.5% to 1.6%, while the market participants expected an increase to 2.5%. As a result, sales would need to rise by around 1.0% over the next two months in order to provide the same support to the GDP growth that it did in Q4. The good news that the figures were boosted by a rise in non-food sales, thanks to people's New Year's resolutions to "get fit and lose weight". "Feedback from retailers suggested that New Year's resolutions to "get fit and lose weight" contributed to this increase in sales when compared with the previous year," the researchers from the Office for National Statistics said. "Growth in the quantity of sporting equipment, games and toys was offset by falling of food sales when compared with the same month of the previous year," added Rhian Murphy, a senior statistician at the ONS."Sporting equipment sales have grown more than usual in January 2018, following an increased uptake for gym wear." - he added.

Well, it would be better for UK citizens to get in shape as the figures are not particularly encouraging.

Let's now take a look at the GBP/USD technical picture at the H4 time frame. The market tried to rally just before the data release, but it just hit the golden trend line of dynamic resistance and then reversed after the disappointing data were released. So, the temporary local high was made at the level of 1.4145, and now the price will test the support at the level of 1.4066 and then possibly at the level of 1.3986. The down-pointing momentum indicator in the overbought market conditions is supporting the bearish outlook.

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Bitcoin analysis for February 16, 2018

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Bitcoin (BTC) has been trading sideways at the price of $9.700. Japan's two cryptocurrency associations have reportedly decided to merge in order to restore trust in the industry and accelerate self-imposed rules. Once approved by the Japanese financial regulator, the new organization will have the power to set penalties for breaches of self-regulation. The technical picture is from neutral to bearish.

Trading recommendations:

According to the 4H time - frame, I found rejection of resistance at the price of $10.000, which is a sign that buying Bitcoin at this stage looks risky. I also found the upward trendline in the background and my advice is to watch for potential brerakout of the trendline to confirm a further downward movement. Downward targets will be set at the price of $9.000 and at the price of $8.280.

Support/Resistance

$10.233 – Intraday resistance

$9.440 – Intraday support

$9.000 – Objective target 1

$8.280 – Objective target 2

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NZD/USD Intraday technical levels and trading recommendations for February 16, 2018

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Daily Outlook

In July 2017, an atypical Head and Shoulders pattern was expressed on the depicted chart which indicated upcoming bearish reversal.

As expected, the price level of 0.7050 failed to offer enough bullish support for the NZD/USD pair. That's why, further bearish decline was expected towards 0.6800 (Reversal pattern bearish target).

Evident signs of bullish recovery was expressed around the depicted low (0.6780). An inverted Head and Shoulders pattern was expressed around these price levels.

The price zone of 0.7140-0.7250 (prominent Supply-Zone) failed to pause the ongoing bullish momentum. Instead, a bullish breakout above 0.7250 was expressed on January 11.

That's why, the current bullish movement extended towards the price levels of 0.7320 and 0.7390.

A quick bullish movement was expected towards the depicted supply zone (0.7320-0.7390) where evident bearish rejection and a valid SELL entry were expected.

On February 2, a bearish engulfing daily candlestick was expressed. This enhances the bearish scenario initially towards the price levels of 0.7230 - 0.7165 where recent bullish recovery was expressed.

Bearish fixation below 0.7160 is needed to allow further bearish decline towards 0.7090.

On the other hand, the price zone (0.7320-0.7390) remains a significant supply zone to be watched for possible bearish rejection and another SELL entry. Stop Loss should be as a daily candlestick above 0.7450.

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GBP/USD analysis for February 16, 2018

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Recently, the GBP/USD pair has been trading downwards. The price tested the level of 1.4065. Anyway, accorrding to the 30M time – frarme, I found a successful test of the pivot level at the price of 1.4065, which is a sign that selling GBP/USD at this stage looks risky. I also found a bullish cross on the stochastic oscillator, which is another sign of strength. My advice is to watch for potential buying opportunities. The upwarrd target is set at the price of 1.4135.

Resistance levels:

R1: 1.4137

R2: 1.4175

R3: 1.4248

Support levels:

S1: 1.4027

S2: 1.3955

S3: 1.3917

Trading recommendations for today: watch for potential buying opportunities.

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USD/JPY analysis for February 16, 2018

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Recently, the USD/JPY has been trading downwards. The price tested the level of 105.54. Anyway, accorrding to the 30M time – frarme, I found fake breakout of yesterday's low at the price of 106.01, which is signt that selling looks risky. I also found a hidden bullish divergence on the moving aveage oscillator, which is another sign of strength. My advice is to watch forr potential buying opportunities. The upward target is set at the price of 106.85.

Resistance levels:

R1: 106.75

R2: 107.36

R3: 107.72

Support levels:

S1: 105.75

S2: 105.42

S3: 104.80

Trading recommendations for today: watch for potential buying opportunities.

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Intraday technical levels and trading recommendations for EUR/USD for February 16, 2018

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Monthly Outlook

In January 2015, the EUR/USD pair moved below the major demand levels near 1.2050-1.2100 (multiple previous bottoms set in July 2012 and June 2010). Hence, a long-term bearish target was projected toward 0.9450.

In March 2015, EUR/USD bears challenged the monthly demand level around 1.0500, which had been previously reached in August 1997.

In the longer term, the level of 0.9450 remains a projected target if any monthly candlestick achieves bearish closure below the depicted monthly demand level of 1.0500.

However, the EUR/USD pair has been trapped within the depicted consolidation range (1.0500-1.1450) until the current bullish breakout was executed above 1.1450 and recently above 1.2075.

Another bullish breakout above 1.2250 was expressed on the chart. This hinders the bearish momentum allowing bullish advancement to occur towards 1.2750.

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Daily Outlook

In September, bearish target for the depicted Head and Shoulders pattern was projected towards 1.1350. However, the market failed to apply significant bearish pressure against the mentioned zone (1.1415-1.1520).

Instead, In November, evident bullish recovery was manifested around the price zone of 1.1520-1.1415.

This hindered further bearish decline which allowed the current bullish momentum to occur towards the price level of 1.2100 which failed to pause the ongoing bullish momentum as well.

Daily persistence above 1.2470-1.2500 is needed to confirm a recent bullish flag continuation pattern with projected targets towards 1.2750.

On the other hand, a recent bearish pullback was being expressed below the price level of 1.2350. This could extend towards 1.2070 if a bearish breakdown of the level of 1.2200 is achieved on a daily basis (low probability).

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Daily analysis of major pairs for February 16, 2018

EUR/USD: The EUR/USD pair has gained about 300 pips this week... Having tested the resistance line at 1.2550. There has been a minor bearish retracement after the resistance line was tested, but price would go upwards again to test the resistance line and breach it to the upside. This would make the market target another resistance line at 1.3050.

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USD/CHF: The USD/CHF pair has continued its slow and gradual bearish movement, having shed about 195 pips this week. Price is now below the resistance level at 0.9350, going towards the support level at 0.9200 (which has already been tested). As long as the EUR/USD pair is strong, USD/CHF would be going bearish.

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GBP/USD: There is a bullish outlook on this currency trading instrument, as it has gained about 330 pips this week. Further northwards journey can help the market reach the distribution territory at 1.4100 (which has been previously tested), 1.4150 and 1.4200. The current bearish correction is shallow and it is expected to be temporary.

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USD/JPY: The USD/JPY pair has been engaged in a smooth, clean bearish movement for this week. The EMA 11 is above the EMA 56, and the RSI period 14 is now above the level 50. Since there is a Bearish Confirmation Pattern in the market, it is expected that price should be able to go below the demand level at 105.50, and remain below it.

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EUR/JPY: The situation in this market remains the same. Price is consolidating to the downside in the context of a downtrend. There are possibilities that the demand zones at 132.00 and 131.50 would be tested. There is also a possibility that a rally could occur before the end of today, or early next week.

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Technical analysis of USD/CHF for February 16, 2018

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All our downside targets which we predicted in the previous analysis have been hit. USD/CHF is under pressure. The pair recorded a process of lower tops and lower bottoms since February 14, which confirmed a bearish outlook. The downward momentum is further reinforced by both declining 20-period and 50-period moving averages. The relative strength index lacks upward momentum.

Hence, below 0.9270, look for a new decline with targets at 0.9160 and 0.9120 in extension.

Chart Explanation: The black line shows the pivot point. The present price above the pivot point indicates a bullish position, and the price below the pivot point indicates a short position. The red lines show the support levels, and the green line indicates the resistance levels. These levels can be used to enter and exit trades.

Strategy: SELL, stop loss at 0.9270, take profit at 0.9160.

Resistance levels: 0.9310, 0.9355, and 0.9385

Support levels: 0.9160, 0.9120, and 0.9090.

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Technical analysis of GBP/JPY for February 16, 2018

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We consider the same yesterday's targets. The pair is consolidating above its key support at 148.55, which should maintain the buying interest. The relative strength index lacks downward momentum. Even though a continuation of the consolidation cannot be ruled out, its extent should be limited.

To sum up, as long as 148.55 is not broken, look for a rebound with targets at 150.20 and 150.80 extension.

Alternatively, if the price moves in the direction opposite to the forecast, a short position is recommended to be below 148.55 with the target at 150.20.

Strategy: BUY, Stop loss at 148.55, Take profit at 150.00

Chart Explanation: the black line shows the pivot point. The price above the pivot point indicates long positions; and when it is below the pivot point, it indicates short positions. The red lines show the support levels, and the green line indicates the resistance levels. These levels can be used to enter and exit trades.

Resistance levels: 150.20, 150.80, and 151.50

Support levels: 147.95, 147.00, and 146.30.

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Technical analysis of NZD/USD for February 16, 2018

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Our first target which we predicted in previous analysis has been hit. NZD/USD is expected to trade with a bullish outlook. The pair posted a rebound from the key support at 0.7365 and broke above its 20-period and 50-period moving averages. The relative strength index is above its neutrality level at 50.

As long as 0.7385 is not broken, look for a further advance with targets at 0.7450 and 0.7485 in extension.

The black line shows the pivot point. Currently, the price is above the pivot point, which is a signal for long positions. If it remains below the pivot point, it will indicate short positions. The red lines show the support levels, while the green line indicates the resistance levels. These levels can be used to enter and exit trades.

Resistance levels: 0.7325, 0.7355, and 0.7385.

Support levels: 0.7365, 0.7335, and 0.7300.

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Technical analysis of USD/CHF for February 16, 2018

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Overiew:

  • The USD/CHF pair dropped sharply from the level of 0.9254 towards 0.9187. Now, the price is set at 0.9200. On the H4 chart, the resistance is seen at the levels of 0.9254 and 0.9295. Volatility is very high for that the USD/CHF pair is still expected to be moving between 0.9200 and 0.9154 in coming hours. In the short term, we expect the USD/CHF pair will continue to trade in a bearish trend from the new resistance level of 0.9200 to form a bearish channel. Also, it should be noted that major resistance is seen at 0.9254, while immediate resistance is found at 0.9200. According to the previous events, the pair is likely to move from 0.9200 towards 0.9154 and 0.9107 as targets. However, if the pair succeeds to pass through the level of 0.9254, the market will indicate a bullish opportunity above the level of 0.9254. So, the market will rise further to 0.9290 in order to return to third resistance. Moreover, a breakout of that target will move the pair further upwards to 0.9361.
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Technical analysis of NZD/USD for February 16, 2018

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Overview:

  • The NZD/USD pair will continue to climb from the levels of 0.7367 and 0.7390 today. It should be noted that the support is established at the level of 0.7367 which represents the daily pivot point on the H1 chart. The price is likely to form a double bottom in the same time frame. Accordingly, the NZD/USD pair is showing signs of strength following a breakout of the highest level of 0.7390. So, buy above the level of 0.7390 with the first target at 0.7419 in order to test the daily resistance 1. The level of 0.7419 (double top) is a good place to take profits. Moreover, the RSI is still signaling that the trend is upward as it remains strong above the moving average (100). This suggests that the pair will probably go up in the coming hours. If the trend is able to break the level of 0.7419, then the market will call for a strong bullish market towards the objective of 0.7449 today. On the other hand, in case a reversal takes place and the NZD/USD pair breaks through the support level of 0.7326, a further decline to 0.7268 can occur. It would indicate a bearish market.
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Trading plan 02/16/2018

Trading plan 02/16/2018

The overall picture: The fall of the dollar.

The dollar updates the lows: the dollar-yen, dollar-franc falls.

Today, the euro reached a new high.

Buy the euro from 1.2515, stop at 1.2470, target at 1.2630.

There are no important news: the market continues the trend "by inertia", until the big players decide that "it's enough".

Pound:

Buy on the rebound from 1.3940.

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Bitcoin analysis for 16/02/2018

The head of the International Monetary Foundation (IMF), Christine Lagarde, said that the regulation of cryptocurrencies was inevitable and necessary at the international level. Asked during the interview about whether the growing popularity of cryptocurrency markets was caused by the hunger for high profits in global markets, Lagarde replied that that trend showed the mentality of those who were looking for high-performance products, as well as an element of speculation. She added that it was also driven by dark activities, which was a reference to the potential use of cryptocurrencies in money laundering and other illegal online activities, due to their anonymous character.

Regarding the regulation of cryptocurrencies, Lagarde spoke about its inevitability and the need to focus on the regulation of actions over the subjects: "This is the sphere in which we need international regulation and proper supervision."- she said.

According to Lagard, already in October 2016, banks will adopt digital currencies in the next five years, while a regulation will be needed to prevent money laundering and illegal activities. However, in October last year, she expressed interest in the IMF, in launching its own cryptocurrency, after the previous comments on the potential benefits for countries with weak national currencies.

As the cryptocurrency markets experienced a quite unstable start of the new year, banks and financial institutions began to treat regulating cryptocurrencies more and more seriously. On the other hand, the joint hearing of Future Commodity Futures Commissions (CFTC) and Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), on February 6, gave the impression that the future regulations must cherish the cryptocurrency sector rather than crush it.

Let's now take a look at the Bitcoin technical picture at the H4 time frame. The market has tested the level of $10,000 (round psychological number) and even gone a little higher towards the level of $10,239 before starting to test the level of $10,000 from below. In a case of a further move higher, the next technical resistance is seen at the level of $11,896 ( weekly pivot resistance is seen at the level of $10,998 ). On the other hand, the next support is seen at the level of $9,146.

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Trading plan for 16/02/2018

Asia is continuing the holiday break, so the market participants can observe further weakening of the USD and sustaining increases in the stock market. EUR/USD hit 1.2450, USD/JPY went down to 105.50. AUD is also very strong. The weakness of the dollar supports increases in gold and crude oil prices.

On Friday 16th of February, the event calendar is light in important news releases, but the market participants should keep an eye on Retail Sales With Auto Fuel data from the UK, Building Permits and Housing Starts data form the US and Foreign Securities Purchases and Manufacturing Sales from Canada.

AUD/USD analysis for 16/02/2018:

The speech of the president of the RBA to the Australian parliament did not bring new information. Phillip Lowe repeated that "he sees no basis for adapting policy in the near future", although less monetary stimulation "at some stage will be appropriate".

Let's now take a look at the AUD/USD technical picture at the H4 time frame. AUD accepted the comments neutrally, but the general weakness of the USD helped in the increase of AUD / USD to 0.7980, which is just below the 61% Fibo of the previous swing down. Moreover, there are two more important technical levels at 0.8004 and 0.7987, which make this zone a tough one to break. Please notice the overbought market conditions, it might suggest a corrective pull-back towards the level of 0.7934.

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Market Snapshot: SPY broke above last leg high

The price of SPY (SP500 EFT) has broken above the level of 272.32, which was the last swing down high. Currently, the market is moving forward towards the next technical resistance at the level of 275.27, accompanied by the strong upward momentum. Nevertheless, the market conditions are beginning to look overbought.

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Market Snapshot: DAX still undecided.

Unlike the rest of the global indices, the price of German DAX index is still undecided whether it should go higher or lower, so it keeps hovering inside of a corrective zone between the levels of 11,995 - 12,503. Nevertheless, the markets is trying to bounce from the oversold conditions, so if the DAX will take some clues from global indices like SPY, the test of the higher levels is still very possible.

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Ichimoku cloud indicator analysis of USDX for February 16, 2018

The Dollar index is making new lows as expected. Trend remains bearish. Target area for the downward move to be complete is around 87.50. This does not mean that the decline could end sooner. Bears should not get overconfident, as there are important divergence signals.

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Red line - resistance

In the 4 hour chart the price remains in a bearish trend below the 4 hour Kumo and the red trend line resistance. Support is now around 87.60, and this could be our final target after a short-term bounce. Resistance is at 89.40-89.60. As long as the price is below that level, there is no reversal indication.

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Blue line - long-term resistance trend line

Black line - long-term support trend line

Black rectangle - target area

Red line - price expectations

The Dollar index is in a weekly bearish trend trading below the weekly Kumo. There are bullish divergence signs by the RSI. I do not expect the price to break below the long-term black trend line of support. I expect the Dollar index to stage a big bounce higher, as I believe, the entire move from 103 is nearly complete and will soon reverse to the upside.

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Ichimoku cloud indicator analysis of gold for February 16, 2018

Gold price is making new highs, and price remains in a bullish trend. The price remains below the January highs but it is expected to move above them. This is not the time to be chasing the bullish trend. When breaking above the $1,334 resistance was the time to buy. Now it is time to wait.

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Gold price is trading above the 4 hour Kumo. Support is found at $1,337 and next at $1,327-17. Gold will most probably make a new greater high towards $1,380-90, but traders should not chase this trend, unless they use a tight stop.

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Magenta line - long-term resistance

Blue trend line - long-term support

On a weekly basis, the weekly candle is a breakout bullish candle. Weekly support is at $1,300. Any pull back above $1,300 is to be bought for a move higher. However, a break below $1,300 will be a very bearish sign that could push the Gold price towards the long-term blue trend line support. So be careful in case $1,300 breaks. Until then, the bulls will be in control. First warning sign will come with the break of $1,315.

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