Technical analysis of GBP/JPY for June 27, 2017

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As predicted on Friday, GBP/JPY is moving higher. The pair is trading above the rising 50-period moving average, which plays a support role and maintains the upside bias. The relative strength index is mixed with a bullish bias. Even though a continuation of the consolidation cannot be ruled out, its extent should be limited.

Hence, while the price is above 141.20, look for a further upside movement towards 142.70 and 143 in extension.

Alternatively, if the price moves in the opposite direction as predicted, a short position is recommended below 140.80 with the target at 140.35.

Chart Explanation: the black line shows the pivot point. The price above pivot point indicates the bullish position and when it is below pivot points, it indicates a short position. The red lines show the support levels and the green line indicates the resistance levels. These levels can be used to enter and exit trades.

Strategy: BUY, Stop Loss: 142.15, Take Profit: 143.40.

Resistance levels: 143.40, 144.00, and 144.75

Support levels: 141.65, 141.40, and 140.75

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NZD/USD Intraday technical levels and trading recommendations for June 27, 2017

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Daily Outlook

The NZD/USD pair has been trending up within the depicted bullish channel since January 2016.

In November 2016, early signs of bullish weakness were expressed on the chart when the pair failed to record a new high above 0.7400.

A bearish breakout of the lower limit of the channel took place in December 2016.

In February 2017, the depicted short-term downtrend was initiated in the depicted supply zone (0.7310-0.7380).

However, a recent bullish breakout above the downtrend line took place on May 22. Since then, the market has been bullish as depicted on the chart.

The price zone of 0.7150-0.7230 (SUPPLY ZONE in confluence with 61.8% Fibonacci level) stood as a temporary resistance zone until a bullish breakout was expressed above 0.7230.

This resulted in a quick bullish advance towards the next supply zone around 0.7310-0.7380 where evident bearish rejection was expressed on June 14.

Currently, the NZD/USD pair remains trapped between the price levels of 0.7230 - 0.7310 until a breakout occurs in either direction.

Trade recommendations:

Risky traders could have a valid SELL entry at retesting of the price level of 0.7310. S/L should be placed above 0.7400.

Conservative traders can wait for a bearish closure below 0.7230 then 0.7150 (61.8% Fibo level) for a valid SELL position.

S/L should be placed above 0.7250 while T/P levels should be placed at 0.7050, 0.6970, and 0.6850.

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Intraday technical levels and trading recommendations for EUR/USD for June 27, 2017

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Daily Outlook

In January 2017, the previous downtrend reversed when the Head and Shoulders pattern was established around 1.0500. Since then, evident bullish momentum has been expressed on the chart.

The next daily supply level for the EUR/USD pair is located between 1.1400-1.1520 where the price action should be watched for possible bearish rejection.

Recently, the price levels around 1.1280-1.1295 stood as an Intraday resistance where recent bearish movement was initiated.

The bearish pullback could have extended towards 1.1110 and 1.1000 provided that the EUR/USD pair could maintain trading below 1.1170 (currently being breached).

Today, a bullish breakout above 1.1285 will be mandatory to pursue a further advance towards 1.1400.

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H4 Outlook

On May 30, a significant bullish rejection was expressed around the price level of 1.1170 (lower Limit of the Wedge pattern in confluence with 61.8% Fibonacci Level ).

On June 14, a significant bearish rejection was expressed around the depicted supply level 1.1280-1.1295 (the upper limit of the Wedge pattern).

This was followed by a bearish breakdown of the lower limit of the Wedge pattern as well.

Note that re-closure above 1.1200 (lower limit of the Wedge pattern and 61.8% Fibonacci correction) brought bullish pressure into the market. This allowed a further bullish advance towards 1.1280.

A bullish breakout above 1.1280 will probably liberate a quick bullish movement towards 1.1400.

On the other hand, bearish persistence below 1.1170 (lower limit of the Wedge pattern and 61.8% Fibonacci correction) will be needed to enhance a further decline towards 1.1110, 1.1050 and 1.0950.

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Analysis of Gold for June 27, 2017

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Recently, Gold has been trading upwards. As I expected, the price tested the level of $1,253.00. According to the 30M time frame, I am still expecting upward price. There is still a strong selling climax in the backgorund, which is a strong sign of strength. My advice is to watch for buying opportunities with the target at $1,256.00.

Resistance levels:

R1: $1,255.00

R2: $1,259.00

R3: $1,263.00

Support levels:

S1: $1,247.00

S2: $1,242.00

S3: $1,238.50

Trading recommendations for today: consider potential buying opportunities.

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Daily analysis of major pairs for June 27, 2017

EUR/USD: The EUR/USD did nothing significant on Monday. There has generally been a movement between the support line at 1.1100 and the resistance line at 1.1250. There must be a movement above the aforementioned resistance line or below the support line. A movement above the resistance line is the most likely for this week.

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USD/CHF: This market has been moving sideways since last week, and the bias is neutral in the short-term (in the context of a major downtrend). There is a possibility that volatility would rise in the market before the end of this week, or at the beginning of another week. This direction would then be determined by whatever happens to the EUR/USD.

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GBP/USD: The Cable did nothing noteworthy yesterday, although it bounced upwards in the last few days of last week. That upwards bounce could end up becoming a good opportunity to go short, because the market could turn downwards to test the accumulation territories at 1.2700, 1.2650 and 1.2600 this week.

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USD/JPY: There is now a bullish signal on this currency trading instrument. Price has gone above the demand level at 111.50, and it has tested the supply level at 112.00. The supply level is expected to be breached to the upside as price goes further north. It looks like the bearish expectation for the month of June is over.

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EUR/JPY: The EUR/JPY cross has been going upside, forming a Bullish Confirmation Pattern in the market. Price has gained gone further upwards this week, and it could go further upwards today and tomorrow. There are bullish targets at the supply zones of 125.50, 126.00 and 126.50, which are expected to be reached.

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GBP/USD analysis for June 27, 2017

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Recently, the GBP/USD pair has been trading upwards. As I expected, the price tested our first target level at 1.2760. According to the 4H time frame, I still expect higher price. The GBP/USD pair is in the short-term uptrend and my advice is to watch for buying opportunities. In the background I found a successful test of supply, which is a good sign for higher price. The next downward target is set at the price of 1.2805.

Resistance levels:

R1: 1.2765

R2: 1.2780

R3: 1.2800

Support levels:

S1: 1.2725

S2: 1.2700

S3: 1.2690

Trading recommendations for today: watch for potential buying opportunities.

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Technical analysis of NZD/USD for June 27, 2017

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All our targets which we predicted yesterday of the NZD/USD pair have been hit. NZD/USD is still trading on upside and expected to follow the bullish bias above 0.7275. Although the pair broke below its 20-period and 50-period moving averages, a support base at 0.7275 has been formed and has allowed for a temporary stabilization. The relative strength index lacks downward momentum.

Hence, as long as 0.7275 holds on the downside, look for a further rise to 0.7350 and even to 0.7375 in extension.

Strategy: BUY Stop Loss: 0.7275. Take Profit: 0.7350

Chart Explanation: The black line shows the pivot point. Currently, the price is above the pivot point which indicates the bullish position. If it is below the pivot points, it indicates the short position. The red lines show the support levels and the green line indicates the resistance levels. These levels can be used to enter and exit trades.

Resistance levels: 0.7350, 0.7375, and 0.7405

Support levels: 0.7260, 0.7245, and 0.7300

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Global macro overview for 27/06/2017

Global macro overview for 27/06/2017:

The better than expected data from Germany confirms the positive economic sentiment prevails in the Eurozone. The Ifo Business Climate data beat the expectations of 114.7 with 115.1 points. The same situation was observed in the two remaining sub-indices. The Ifo Current Assesment was released at the level of 124.1 points, better than expectations of 123.2 points, and the Ifo Expectations Index was released at the level of 106.8 points, better than expectations of 106.4 points.

The behavior of the subindex in the report points to the degree of the advancement of the business cycle in Germany. In recent months, the components that describe the current situation are much stronger, less about the prospects for the next 6 months. The subindex of expectations, as opposed to the main one and current assessment index, is still below the 2010 and 2014 highs. German entrepreneurs are not so concerned about what will happen in the economy in the short term. On the other hand, slightly less optimistic is the prognosis for the beginning of 2018. The markets do not seem to worry specifically what will bring the future more distant than the next quarter anyway.

If we take into the account the current differences in economic projections by FED and ECB (The FED looks at the economic data through its fingers and continues to underline the belief that it is a temporary weakness and the economy remains on the right track. The ECB, on the other hand, maintains that policy normalization must precede more credible signals that economic recovery puts pressure on underlying prices), the split between the European and American economy does not immediately translate into a strengthening of the Euro against the Dollar.

Let's take a look at the EUR/USD technical picture at the longer term time frame like daily. The pair again was unable to settle above 1.1200 level. The barrier standing on the road to 1.1300 is the resistance zone of 1.1220-30. The deeper pullback would be indicated only by breaking 1.1108. The course is in the persistent range of 1.1100 -1.1300, due to the fact that the relative strength in the data does not translate into the corresponding changes in central bank attitudes.

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Global macro overview for 27/06/2017

Global macro overview for 27/06/2017:

The US Durable Goods Orders data were worse than market expectations as they declined 1.1% in May compared with the consensus forecast of a 0.5% decline for the month. Following a revised 0.9% decline in the previous month, there was an annual increase of 2.8%. Capital goods orders declined 3.1% on a monthly basis while non-defence capital goods orders, excluding aircraft, fell 0.2% on the month following a 0.2% gain in the previous month to give a 2.3% annual growth.

The FED looks at the series of the weaker data through its fingers and continues to underline the belief that it is a temporary weakness and the economy remains on the right track. Moreover, market participants should also look for clues as to whether the FED is still calmly approaching a series of weaker data. In any case, the market's future pace of tightening by the FED is still insufficient and needs to get real soon. By the end of 2018, the market is discounting fewer than two interest rate hikes, but when FED will start to unwind their balance sheet, it might not be enough. The market is kind of familiar with this outlook, but it does not fully take into account higher rates and expected lower liquidity. It seems therefore appropriate to expect monetary policy tightening to go on, but the US Dollar remains weak despite hawkish comments from FED Chairperson Jannet Yellen at the last FOMC meeting.

Let's now take a look at the US Dollar technical picture on the H4 time frame. The market is trading near the technical support at the level of 96.84 in oversold market conditions. Moreover, the price is back below the navy trend line support and below all of the moving averages.

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Daily analysis of USDX for June 27, 2017

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Daily analysis of USDX for June 27, 2017

Trading plan for 27/06/2017

Trading plan for 27/06/2017:

Very quiet session on Wall Street results in a similar course of trade in Asia. The gold ounce rate after yesterday's collapse is stabilizing over 200-session average.around $1250. WTI oil costs the same as before the Department of Energy's last publication last Wednesday, $ 43.50 a barrel. EUR/USD is again around 1.1200, USD/JPY is around 112.00.

On Tuesday 27th of June, the event calendar is full of speeches by various central bankers, so some volatility might be expected today. First to speak is Mario Draghi from ECB at 08.00 am GMT, then RBA Assistant Governor Guy Debelle will speak around 08:30 am GMT, next one is a highly anticipated speech by Mark Carney from Bank of England (around 10:00 am GMT). During the US session, the FED policymakers will speak, starting from Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia President Patrick Harker at 03:15 pm GMT, then FED Chairperson Janet Yellen will give a speech at 05:00 pm GMT and the last one to speak is Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis President Neel Kashkari around 09:30 pm GMT.

EUR/USD analysis for 27/08/2017:

Except for the speeches, the important data release from the US is CB Consumer Confidence Index, which is scheduled for release at 02:00 pm GMT. The market participants expect a slight drop from the level of 117.9 points to 116.2 points, and it would be the third month of a decrease in sentiment. The consumer confidence has been rising since June 2016 with a peak in March 2017 at the level of 125 points, just three months after Donald Trump presidency started. Nevertheless, this upbeat mode seems to be sliding now, as previously published data for the University of Michigan's Consumer Sentiment Index (CSI) in June slipped to its lowest reading in eight months, although the latest print is still above the recent low in October. Only if the data beat the consensus, the US Dollar would gain across the board.

Let's now take a look at the EUR/USD technical picture at the H4 timeframe. During the whole day today, this pair will be under the influence of various central banks members speeches conclusions and data release from the US. So far, EURUSD trades sideways in a narrow range between the levels of 1,1211 - 1.1130. The most important levels for bears and bulls are 1.1295 for bears and 1.1075 for bulls as any breakout above/below this level will be decisive for further price action development.

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Market Snapshot: Gold is back up where the sell-off started

After yesterday 20 dollar drop in prices of Gold, the market almost returned to the level where it all started. The 200-periods hourly moving average acted as a dynamic resistance around the level of $1251, but it looks like the price of the yellow metal might go even higher, towards the next resistance at 78%Fibo at the level of $1254. Both stochastic and RSI indicators support this view.

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Market Snapshot: USD/JPY just below the 61%Fibo retracement

The price of USD/JPY managed to break out above the technical resistance at the level of 111.70 and almost hit the 61%Fibo at the level of 112.23. Nevertheless, despite making a new local high, the momentum indicator is showing a bearish divergence, so this pair might start an intraday corrective cycle soon. The next technical support is seen at the level of 111.00.

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Ichimoku indicator analysis of USD/CAD for June 27, 2017

Since June 14th, the USD/CAD has been mainly moving sideways respecting support levels but with no bounce strength despite oil weakness. 1.32 is critical support.

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Blue line - short-term support

The USD/CAD pair is trading below the Kumo and this might put another test to the critical support of 1.32. Resistance is at 1.3255 and if broken, we could see a bounce towards 1.3350.

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On a daily basis, the USD/CAD pair is consolidating around long-term support level of 1.31-1.32. As long as it holds it, we could see a bounce towards 1.34-1.35. Breaking below it will open the way for 1.25-1.27.The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Ichimoku indicator analysis of USD/JPY for June 27, 2017

The USD/JPY is approaching some very critical medium-term trend resistance levels. The trend in the short-term remains bullish but the medium-term trend is bearish.

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Blue line - short-term support

Short-term support is at 111. The price is above the 4-hour Kumo confirming that the short-term trend is bullish. Only a break below 111 will put this trend into danger and a break below 110.40 will confirm trend change to bearish.

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Blue line - long-term resistance

In the Daily chart, the price is trying to break above the Kumo. The price also remains below the long-term Trend line resistance at 112.50. The 111.80-112.50 area is important resistance and we could see a rejection from there.

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Ichimoku indicator analysis of USDX for June 27, 2017

The Dollar index is holding short-term support. We might eventually see the bounce towards 98.50-99 we were expecting after all. This is not the time to be bearish on the Dollar.

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The Dollar index is holding above cloud. Short-term support is at 97. Resistance is at 97.50. Break above 97.50 and it will be almost certain that the June high of 97.85 will be broken.

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Blue lines - bearish channel

We continue to expect the Dollar index to move upwards and sideways towards the upper channel boundary. The bullish divergence signs in the weekly chart imply that next couple of weeks should continue and favor the Dollar. Despite the weekly Kumo below, there are no selling strength...and this is depicted in the divergence. That is why I expect a bounce first.

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Ichimoku indicator analysis of gold for June 27, 2017

Gold price remains in a bearish trend as long as price is below $1,260. Gold has made a double top rejection at $1,300 and this opens up the possibility of a break lower towards $1,200-$1,180.

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Red line -resistance

Gold price is trading below both the red trend line and the 4-hour Kumo. Short-term trend is clearly bearish. Short-term resistance and trend change level is at $1,260. Support is at $1,240.

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Black line - long-term ressistance

Blue line - long-term support

Another weekly candle where we see a tail is touching the weekly cloud support and bouncing upwards. Price is holding at support for now. A weekly breakout towards our longer-term targets will be confirmed on a break above the black long-term trend line. The double top at $1,300 could however push us first towards the blue trend line before the next leg up.

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Elliott wave analysis of EUR/NZD for June 27, 2017

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Wave summary:

The corrective decline in wave ii/ will not rest and continues to make new lows keeping the correction alive. We still think a low is nearby, but only a break above minor resistance seen at 1.5504 will confirm that wave ii/ has completed and wave iii/ has taken over for a new impulsive rally to above 1.6237.

The corrective decline from 1.6237 is clearly losing downside momentum but still is able to continue it slowly, but relentless push lower.

R3: 1.5534

R2: 1.5504

R1: 1.5401

Pivot: 1.5350

S1: 1.5315

S2: 1.5291

S3: 1.5238

Trading recommendation:

We are long EUR from 1.5446 with stop placed at 1.5246. If you are not long EUR yet, then buy a break above 1.5504 and use the same stop at 1.5246.

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Elliott wave analysis of EUR/JPY for June 27, 2017

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Wave summary:

EUR/JPY has rallied nicely and the next hurdle to overcome is seen at 125.80 a break above this resistance, will confirm continuation higher to the next target seen at 127.00. Short-term support is now seen at 124.68 which ideally will be able to protect the downside for the expected break above 125.80.

R3: 127.00

R2: 126.47

R1: 125.80

Pivot: 125.50

S1: 124.96

S2: 124.68

S3: 124.33

Trading recommendation:

We are long EUR from 124.46 and we will raise our stop to break-even. If you are not long EUR yet, then buy near 124.68 or upon a break above 125.80 and use the same stop.

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Technical analysis of NZD/USD for June 27, 2017

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Overview:

  • The NZD/USD pair rebounded from the level of 0.7205 in the long term. It should be noted that the support is established at the level of 0.7205 which represents the daily pivot point on the H4 chart. The NZD/USD pair is showing signs of force following a breakout of the highest price of 0.7205.
  • The price was in a bullish channel since two days. This is confirmed by the RSI indicator signaling that we are still in a bullish trending market.
  • The NZD/USD pair continues to move upwards from the level of 0.7205. As long as the trend is above the price of 0.7205, the market is still in an uptrend.
  • In addition, the trend is still strong above the moving average (MA100). The NZD/USD pair didn't make any significant movements last two days.
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  • The market is indicating a bullish opportunity above the mentioned support levels. The bullish outlook remains valid as long as the 100 EMA heads for the upside.
  • Therefore, strong support will be found around the spot of 0.7159-0.7205 providing a clear signal to buy with a target seen at 0.7250.
  • If the trend breaks the first resistance at 0.7250, the pair will move upwards continuing the bullish trend development to the level of 0.7305 in order to test the daily resistance 2. It should be noted that the major resistance is seen at 0.7344 today.
  • On the other hand, it would also be wise to consider where to place a stop loss; this should be set below the second support of 0.7130.
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Technical analysis of USD/CHF for June 27, 2017

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Overview:

  • The USD/CHF pair has broken resistance at the level of 0.9720 which acts as support now. Thus, the pair has already formed minor support at 0.9720.The strong support is seen at the level of 0.9689 because it represents the daily support 2. Equally important, the RSI and the moving average (100) are still calling for an uptrend. Therefore, the market indicates a bullish opportunity at the level of 0.9720 on the H1 chart. Also, if the trend is buoyant, then the currency pair strength will be defined as following: USD is in an uptrend and CHF is in a downtrend. Buy above the minor support of 0.9720 with the first target at 0.9741 (this price is coinciding with the ratio of 78.6% Fibonacci), and continue towards 0.9769 in order to test the double top. On the other hand, if the price closes below the minor support, the best location for the stop loss order is seen below 0.9689; hence, the price will fall into the bearish market in order to go further towards the strong support at 0.9671 to test it again. Furthermore, the level of 0.9640 will form a double bottom.
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Daily analysis of USDX for June 27, 2017

USDX is being capped by the resistance level of 97.42 and it's targeting the resistance level of 97.84 as the next key area for sellers. There is not a clear trend in the index amid sideways' start of the week for most of the markets. If the support level of 97.10 gives up in favor of the bears, then it can decline towards 96.87.

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H1 chart's resistance levels: 97.43 / 97.84

H1 chart's support levels: 97.10 / 96.87

Trading recommendations for today: Based on the H1 chart, place buy (long) orders only if the USD Index breaks with a bullish candlestick; the resistance level is at 97.43, take profit is at 97.84 and stop loss is at 97.00.

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Daily analysis of GBP/USD for June 27, 2017

GBP/USD remains hovering around the 200 SMA area at H1 chart, with another attempt to break higher in order to extend the rally towards the next key resistance level of 1.2826. If the pair manages to break below 1.2710, then we can expect further weakness towards the support level of 1.2652. MACD indicator is still at the negative territory, favoring the bearish bias.

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H1 chart's resistance levels: 1.2750 / 1.2826

H1 chart's support levels: 1.2710 / 1.2652

Trading recommendations for today: Based on the H1 chart, sell (short) orders only if the GBP/USD pair breaks a bearish candlestick; the support level is at 1.2710, take profit is at 1.2652 and stop loss is at 1.2770.

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GBP/USD testing major resistance, remain bearish

Price is now testing major resistance at 1.2741 (Bearish price action, horizontal resistance, Fibonacci extension) and we expect a drop from this level to at least 1.2652 support (Fibonacci retracement, horizontal swing low support).

Stochastic (34,5,3) is seeing strong resistance below 96% level and we expect a further drop from this level.

Sell below 1.2741. Stop loss at 1.2764. Take profit at 1.2652.

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EUR/JPY rising perfectly, remain bullish for a further rise

Price has made a bullish exit from our triangle formation as expected. We remain bullish above 124.34 support (Fibonacci retracement, horizontal overlap support) for a further push up to at least 125.06 resistance (Fibonacci extension, Elliott wave theory).

RSI (34) sees a long-term ascending support line hold price up really well and keep our bullish view.

Buy above 124.34. Stop loss at 123.99. Take profit at 125.06.

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USD/JPY consolidating really well, prepare for a push up

Price continues to consolidate around our buying area and has been doing so for the past few days. We remain bullish looking to buy above 111.32 support (Fibonacci retracement, horizontal pullback support) for a further push up to at least 113.06 resistance (Fibonacci extension, Fibonacci retracement, horizontal pullback resistance).

RSI (34) remains above its support at 52% and we remain bullish on price as long as it holds above this level.

Buy above 111.31. Stop loss at 110.45. Take profit at 113.06.

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