EUR / USD. August 23. Results of the day. We expect the pair to fall to 1.1500 area

4-hour timeframe

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Amplitude of the last 5 days (high-low): 73p - 78p - 90p - 121p - 70p.

The average amplitude for the last 5 days is 86n (83p).

On Thursday, August 23, the US dollar began to appreciate. On the one hand, this is quite a logical event, as the MACD indicator was already heavily overbought, and the technical correction itself was brewing. On the other hand, everyone is interested in the question of whether the weakening of the dollar will end on this? Logically, traders adjusted the pair quite strongly against the long-term growth of the US currency. Now you can start selling new couples. From a technical point of view, of course, it's better to wait for the price to be fixed below the critical Kijun-sen line, which will significantly increase the chances of continuing the downward movement. However, even the current correction can be fully worked out, and next to the Kijun-sen line look at the behavior of the pair. If the critical line is overcome, we leave the shorts open and build them up. From a fundamental point of view, the topic of the trade war between China and the US remains a key topic on the foreign exchange market. Right at the time of negotiations between the parties, reciprocal equal trade duties began to operate for 16 billion dollars from each side. The markets took this information negatively and started buying US currency. If the results of the talks are disappointing, then, most likely, this will cause even greater demand for the US dollar. Of macroeconomic reports, there is really nothing to highlight today. Today, a report will be published from the meeting on the monetary policy of the ECB, however, as in the Fed's report yesterday, it is unlikely that there will be extremely important information that the market will not be able to react to ...

Trading recommendations:

For the pair EUR / USD, correction began. Thus, now it is recommended to consider shorts in small lots with the aim of Kijun-sen line. In case of overcoming this line, the sell-positions can be increased with targets of about 1.1400.

Long positions can be opened if the MACD indicator turns up or the price bounces off the Kijun-sen line. In this case, the bulls will have a good opportunity to continue the uptrend with the target of 1.1632, which is recommended to be rejected.

In addition to the technical picture, one should also take into account the fundamental data and the time of their release.

Explanations to the illustration:

Ichimoku Indicator:

Tenkan-sen is a red line.

Kijun-sen is a blue line.

Senkou Span A is a light brown dotted line.

Senkou Span B - a light purple dotted line.

Chinkou Span is a green line.

Bollinger Bands Indicator:

3 yellow lines.

MACD indicator:

Red line and histogram with white bars in the indicator window.

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Intraday technical levels and trading recommendations for EUR/USD for August 23, 2018

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Daily Outlook

In April 2018, the EUR/USD pair outlook turned to become bearish when the pair pursued trading below the lower limit of the depicted consolidation range (1.2200).

The price level of 1.1500 offered temporary bullish recovery towards 1.1830. The EUR/USD bulls failed to pursue towards higher bullish targets.

Instead, a descending high was established around 1.1800.

On the weekly chart, the EUR/USD pair is testing the price zone of 1.1450-1.1370 (demand zone) where the depicted trend lines are located on the depicted weekly chart.

On August 10, temporary bearish closure below 1.1400 was achieved. This allowed further bearish decline towards 1.1300 where evident bullish recovery was demonstrated.

If the current bullish pullback persists above 1.1520, the bearish scenario would be hindered for the short-term. Further bullish advancement should be expected towards 1.1750.

On the other hand, for the weekly Head & Shoulders reversal pattern to be confirmed, the EUR/USD pair needs obvious bearish persistence below 1.1400.

Initial bearish target would be located around 1.1275, then 1.1120 if enough bearish pressure is applied.

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NZD/USD Intraday technical levels and trading recommendations for August 23, 2018

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Breakdown of 0.7220-0.7170 (neckline zone) was needed for a bearish breakout of the depicted consolidation range (0.7170 and 0.7350).

Quick bearish decline took place towards 0.6700-0.6800 where the narrow ranged consolidation range was established.

On July 7, evident bullish rejection pushed the NZD/USD pair above 0.6820 temporarily.

However, lack of bullish momentum made the bulls fail to maintain enough bullish momentum above 0.6700.

On August 9, bearish breakout below the depicted consolidation range (0.6700-0.6840) was executed. This allowed the current bearish decline to occur towards 0.6600-0.6570.

The NZD/USD pair outlook turned to be bearish. Bearish targets are projected towards the price levels of 0.6520 and 0.6480.

Recently, early signs of bullish recovery were manifested around the recent low around 0.6550. This allowed the current bullish pullback to occur.

Conservative traders should wait for a deeper bullish pullback towards 0.6750 for a low-risk SELL entry. S/L should be placed above 0.6850.

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Control zones of GBP /USD pair 23.08.18

The growth of the current week is an impulse, which allows considering purchases at the test of significant support zones. The main support is a control zone at 1.2815-1.2803, the test of which will give favorable prices for the opening of purchases.

Yesterday, the pair reached the weekly control zone of 1.2925-1.2901, which allowed implementing the priority upward model. To continue its increase, it will be necessary to close one of the American sessions above this zone. the pair is trading within the first support of the a control zone at 1.2875-1.2869. If the closing of the American session occurs above this zone, then purchases can be made from current marks. The main support is the a control zone, where the fate of the upward momentum will be determined. It is required that the closing of the American session occurred above the level of 1.2803 to resume its uptrend. This will allow you to hold a long position to the next target zone.

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Purchases from current levels are also profitable because the risk-to-profit ratio when updating the weekly extremum will be 1 to 3, provided that the stop-loss is set lower than today's local minimum.

To form a reversal pattern, the growth absorption that occurred on Tuesday and the close of the US session below level 1.2803 will be required. This will cancel the purchase and allow you to search for profitable prices for sale tomorrow. The first goal of the fall will be the August low. Do not forget that sales from current levels are not profitable and the probability of a reversal pattern is 30%, which makes it only ancillary.

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The daytime CP is the daytime control zone. The zone formed by important data from the futures market that change several times a year.

The weekly CP is the weekly control zone. The zone is formed by marks from important futures market which change several times a year.

The monthly CP is the monthly control zone. The zone is a reflection of the average volatility over the past year.

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Analysis of GBP / USD pair - Divergences on August 23. The pound sterling has completed a corrective rollback Analysis of

H4

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The GBP / USD pair reversed in favor of the US dollar without the formation of a bearish divergence or rebound on the 4-hour chart. As a result, the drop in quotations could be continued on August 23 in the direction of the correction level of 261.8% at 1.2638. Brewing divergences are also not notice today. or a more accurate picture of what is happening, go to the lower time frame chart.

The Fibo grid was established on boundaries from March 1, 2018 and April 17, 2018.

H1

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On the hourly chart, the pair executed a reversal in favor of the US currency after the formation of a bearish divergence in the MACD indicator and fixation under the correction level of 38.2% at 1.2872. As a result, the drop in quotations can be continued in the direction of the next correction level of 23.6% at 1.2791. Fixing the rate of the pair above the Fibo level of 38.2% will work in favor of the British currency and the resumption of growth towards the correction level of 50.0% at 1.2937.

The Fibo grid was established on boundaries from July 26, 2018 and August 15, 2018.

Recommendations for traders:

Purchases of the GBP / USD pair will be possible with the target of 1.2937 and a stop loss order under the correction level of 38.2% if it closes above the Fibo level of 1.2872 on the hourly chart.

Sales of the GBP / USD pair can now be carried out with the target of 1.2791 and a Stop Loss order above the correction level of 38.2%, as there was a close under the Fibo level of 1.2882.

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Bitcoin analysis for August 23, 2018

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Trading recommendations:

According to the H4 time - frame, I found that BTC price rejected from the strong resistance zone ($6.803) in the background, which is a sign that buying looks risky. My advice is to watch for selling opportunities. The downward target is set at the price of $5.845.

Support/Resistance

$6.210 – Intraday resistance

$6.576– Intraday support

$5.845– Objective target 1

With InstaForex you can earn on cryptocurrency's movements right now. Just open a deal in your MetaTrader4.

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FOMC protocols: No surprises

The protocol of the FOMC meeting, published on Wednesday, did not contain any surprises, confirming the intention to raise the rate in September. The markets did not react to the publication of the protocol.

On Thursday morning, the probability of a rate increase, according to the CME futures market data, is 96%, which can be considered a sign of complete unanimity. The outlook for December is more cautious, as long as the probability of an increase is 66.1%, that is, the market lays fears in its expectations about the negative dynamics of some important US indicators by the end of the year.

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The first such indicator is inflation. At present, the markets are almost unanimous in that inflation in the US is growing, however, by some indications, this growth is far from being so convincing. The yield on the 5-year inflation-protected bonds "Tips" peaked at 2.16% on May 16, but then declined for three months, as of August 20 it fell to 1.95%, which is a minimum of more than 4 months . The profitability of Tips reflects the real view of the business on inflation processes, that is, at the moment the business is focused on slowing the growth of inflation.

Two other indicators, GDP growth and the labor market, still look confident, the risks look balanced, and the negative in the emerging markets in the text of the protocol was almost bypassed. The trade wars were elucidated in the key of the increased uncertainty of their influence on further measures of monetary policy, and the importance of the inversion of the yield curve was ignored by the FOMC members.

Thus, the FOMC rate remains stable, there is no reason to revise it, this is the most important conclusion from yesterday's protocol. This position automatically means orientation to a strong dollar, which should lead, among other things, to the compression of the monetary base (DB).

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The contraction of DB in December 2016 led to a serious panic in the markets and a sharp increase in the dollar index. At the moment, the reduction of DB is not observed, although taking into account the correlation between DB and the balance of the FRS, this is inevitable.

Thus, objective factors indicate that the dollar should continue to grow in the long term. At the same time, it should be borne in mind that the continuation of the policy of the Fed will lead to an increase in the problems of emerging markets due to tightening of financial conditions.

Tomorrow at the annual symposium in Jackson-Hole, Fed Chairman Powell will speak, which will reveal the theme of "monetary policy in a changing economy" from the point of view of the Fed. Speech can lead to increased volatility. Also on Friday, you need to pay attention to the publication of data on orders for durable goods in July.

EUR / USD

Euro will hold the day in the range, preparing for a resumption of resistance 1.1620. Support for 1.1530.

GBP / USD

For the pound are the same levels as the day before, resistance 1.2955 and 1.3050, strong movement is unlikely, the pound will be traded in the range with a tendency to increase.

Oil and ruble

Oil continues to rise after the release of data from the US Energy Ministry, which showed a significant reduction in inventories. Brent closed the day at 74.90, the growth was 2.9%, today during the day there may be a corrective decrease to 73.50, this is the nearest significant support.

The ruble is subject to strong and large-scale pressure from the US, which is probably tied to the upcoming November elections to the Congress. Again on the agenda is the threat of a ban on trading in Russia's sovereign debt and on transactions with state-owned banks, prospects remain uncertain, there are no weighty reasons for waiting for improvement.

At the same time, the threat of new sanctions being introduced in their most severe form seems unlikely, and extreme scenarios for the ruble are not realized. As long as the pressure continues, the ruble will softly devalue, remaining within the range close to current levels. Until the end of the week, the ruble is likely to rise above 69 rubles / dollar.

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Control zones of the EUR / USD as of August 23, 2018

The upward movement of the current week is a medium-term impulse, therefore the main support will be made by the NCP 1/2 1.1531-1.1522. While the pair is trading above this zone, purchases remain a priority.

The most favorable prices for purchase, in conditions of medium-term bullish momentum, are within the limits of the NCP 1/2 1.1531-1.1522, formed from the maximum of the current week. When constructing a plan, it is necessary to take into account the closeness of the monthly short-term fault to a weekly extremum, which slightly reduces the amount of potential profit. The upward movement will remain the main one as long as the pair trades above the NCP 1/2, so purchases are profitable, since the probability of updating the weekly maximum is 70%.

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The variant with the continuation of growth without a test NCP 1/2 is better not to be considered since the risk-to-profit ratio of this model will be less than 1 to 3. At the distance, such transactions do not give the necessary advantage.

To cancel the upward momentum and the formation of a medium-term correctional model, closing of today's American session below the level of 1.1522 is required. This will allow us to look for favorable prices for the sale of the instrument tomorrow. The probability of forming this model is 30%, so work on it will be auxiliary to the main ascending one. The level of 1.1611 is significant, as above it there was a large number of limit orders for sale in early August, and yesterday's level test confirmed their availability, not at this time.

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The daily short-term fault is the daytime control zone. The zone formed by important data from the futures market, which change several times a year.

The weekly short-term fault is the weekly control zone. The zone formed by important futures market marks, which change several times a year.

The monthly short-term fault is the monthly control zone. The zone, which is a reflection of the average volatility over the past year.

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Analysis of EUR / USD Divergences on August 23. Bearish divergence allowed the dollar to strengthen

4h

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The currency pair EUR / USD on the 4-hour chart reversed in favor of the US currency, after the bearish divergence of the CCI indicator, and the fall to the correctional level of 50.0% - 1.1546. The cut-off of quotes from the Fibo level of 50.0% will allow traders to count on a turn in favor of the euro and some growth in the direction of the correction level of 61.8% - 1,1603. The consolidation of the pair's rate below the Fibo level of 50.0% will increase the chances of the pair to further fall towards the next correction level of 38.2% - 1.1490.

The Fibo grid is built on extremes from July 9, 2018 and August 15, 2018.

Daily

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On the 24-hour chart, the pair performed fixing above the correction level of 100.0% - 1.1553. Thus, the growth of quotations can be continued in the direction of the next Fibo level of 76.4% - 1.1789. August 23, there are no signs of divergence in any indicator. Fixing the pair under the correction level of 100.0% can be interpreted as a reversal in favor of the US currency and expect a slight decline towards the corrective level of 127.2% - 1.1285.

The Fibo grid is built on extremes from November 7, 2017 and February 16, 2018.

Recommendations for traders:

Purchases of the EUR / USD pair will be possible with the aim of 1,1603 with a Stop Loss order under the Fibo level of 50.0% if the pair retires from the correction level of 1.1546.

Sales of the EUR / USD pair will be possible with the target of 1,1490 if the pair completes the closing at the Fibo level of 50.0%, with a Stop Loss order above 1.1546.

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EUR / USD h4. Variants of traffic development c 23 August 2018 Analysis of APLs & ZUP

Minute (h4)

Euro vs US Dollar

Previous review on 08/15/2018 17:39 UTC + 3.

____________________

The development of the EUR / USD movement on August 23 - September 1, 2018 will be due to the development of the boundaries of the equilibrium zone (1.1510 <-> 1.1575 <-> 1.1640) of the operational scale Minute. Traditionally - when making trading decisions, do not forget to take into account the development of the #USDX movement (review from 17:37 on 08/22/2018 UTC + 3).

The marking of the mining of the above-mentioned levels of the Minute equilibrium zone is shown in the graph.

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The outlook for the development of the upward movement (buy)

The breakdown of the resistance level of 1.2980 (the upper limit of the ISL61.8 equilibrium zone forks of operating scale Minute) -> option to continue the development of the upward movement EUR / USD to the targets -> reaction line RL100.0 Minute (1.1700) <-> minimum 1.1791.

The details are shown in the graph.

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The outlook for the development of the downward movement (sell)

The breakdown of the support level 1.1510 (the lower boundary ISL38.2 of the equilibrium zone of the operating-scale pitchfork Minute) is a variant of the development of the GBP / USD downward movement to the border of the channel 1/2 of Median Line Minute (1.1480 <-> 1.1440 <-> 1.1400).

See the schedule for details.

____________________

The review is made without taking into account the news background and is not a guide to action (placing orders "sell" or "buy").

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EUR / USD. 22nd of August. The results of the week. Technical correction continues ahead of the publication of the FRS protocol

4-hour timeframe

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Amplitude of the last 5 days (high-low): 54p - 73p - 78p - 90p - 121p.

The average amplitude for the last 5 days is 83n (79p).

On Wednesday, August 22, the US dollar continues to lose ground within the framework of technical correction. Most of Trump's latest statements and events on the world stage did not attract the attention of traders. Thus, for example, Trump's accusations against Jerome Powell and the entire Fed about too tight monetary tightening were ignored. The publication of the minutes of the last meeting of the Fed is expected tonight, but this document is unlikely to be anything interesting, given the fact that the rate at the previous meeting was not increased, but almost with 100% probability will be increased at the next. Thus, most likely, this report will not change the nature of the trades. Although the dollar itself is becoming more expensive by the very publication of this document. It should also be noted that, most likely, traders are waiting for the results of negotiations between China and the States, which began today, and will be completed tomorrow. A lot will depend on the outcome of the talks in the world, although we believe that the parties will not be able to come to a common denominator and the negotiations will end with nothing. In this case, just the US dollar may begin to rise again, as traders can again regard an event of the kind, as the strength of the US leader and the future improvement of the state of the economy, due to improved trading conditions and a reduction in the balance deficit. In practice, everything may not be so rosy, but now it does not matter. What is important is what most traders will do if they receive such a message. And with a high probability, in this case, the market will buy the American currency.

Trading recommendations:

The pair EUR / USD continues to move up. There are no signals to the beginning of correction at the moment. Thus, it is recommended to stay in long positions with targets of 1.1632 and 1.1671. Turning MACD down will be a signal to the manual closing of the longs.

Short positions can be considered small lots if the MACD indicator turns down, which will mean a corrective movement (at least), with targets of support levels 1.1539 and 1.1507.

In addition to the technical picture, one should also take into account the fundamental data and the time of their release.

Explanations to the illustration:

Ichimoku Indicator:

Tenkan-sen is a red line.

Kijun-sen is a blue line.

Senkou Span A is a light brown dotted line.

Senkou Span B - a light purple dotted line.

Chinkou Span is a green line.

Bollinger Bands Indicator:

3 yellow lines.

MACD indicator:

Red line and histogram with white bars in the indicator window.

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Indicator analysis. Daily review of EUR / USD pair on August 23, 2018

The price tested the support line of the symmetrical triangle (red thick line), but not anymore. Candlestick analysis and volumes also moved down. Moreover, the prices still cannot break through the receding level of 23.6%, only by testing this level. This may well suffice for a black receding day.

Trend analysis (Figure 1).

On Thursday, despite the fact that the week is white, the market can work down on quite strong signals for a comprehensive analysis with the first target of 1.1548 a retracement level of 23.6% (yellow dotted line). There is a strong calendar news, which can make an adjustment in the price movement.

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Fig. 1 (daily chart).

Complex analysis:

- indicator analysis - down;

- Fibonacci levels - down;

- volumes - down;

- candle analysis - down;

- trend analysis - down;

- Bollinger lines - up;

- Weekly schedule - up.

General conclusion:

On Thursday, the price will move down with the first target of 1.1548 and the recession level of 23.6% (yellow dotted line).

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Trading plan for the European session on August 22 GBP / USD

To open long positions for GBP / USD, you need:

New long positions are best to open after the pound is reduced to the support area of 1.2875 or immediately to a rebound from the level of 1.2845. The main goal of buyers will be to update the weekly maximum of 1.2943, where I recommend fixing the profits.

To open short positions for GBP / USD, you need:

It is best to consider short positions in the pound after updating the resistance in the area of 1.2943 or after returning and fixing under the large support level of 1.2875, which will lead to a more serious pressure with a return to 1.2845. The main goal of the sellers will be a minimum of 1.2814, where I recommend fixing the profits.

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Description of indicators

MA (average sliding) 50 days - yellow

MA (average sliding) 30 days - green

MACD: fast EMA 12, slow EMA 26, SMA 9

Bollinger Bands 20

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GBP / USD: Further growth of the pair depends on the level of 1.2930

The dollar index continues to decline today, as well as the yield of 10-year Treasury. The market is still reacting to the position of Donald Trump, who exerts public pressure on the Fed, expressing dissatisfaction with the tightening of monetary policy. The dollar sank almost in all pairs, including paired with the pound. The British currency has its own reasons for cautious optimism: London and Brussels have announced preparations for the final stage of Brexit negotiations, outlining the timeframe. Although the key controversial issues are still not resolved, the peace-loving tone of the negotiators provided support to the British, who was able to return to the framework of the 29th figure.

Let me remind you that earlier in the market there were very contradictory rumors. According to one information, the negotiations should start from day to day, other sources claimed that the UK will be dragging out negotiations until November, hoping for the support of Donald Trump, who will attend the G20 summit. As a result, both assumptions were confirmed: now the negotiations will be conducted constantly, so to speak, in the "background" mode, and the time frame for concluding a framework agreement in November of this year, plus or minus a week. The parties recognize that London and Brussels have approached the final stage of the talks, during this round either a deal will be concluded, or Britain will withdraw from the EU without any agreements. In general, there is very little time left. It is not enough to find a common compromise, all 27 EU countries, as well as MEPs, will have to ratify the Brexit treaty.

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Given the fact that the parties intend to sign a deal by the end of November, and Brexit is scheduled for March 29, the time really "is short". Therefore, by and large, negotiators have only one attempt to find a common denominator in complex issues. First of all, we are talking about the Irish border. Yesterday, at a joint press conference, representatives of the EU and Britain recognized that this issue is the most problematic, since it lies solely on the political plane. By the way, according to some experts, the problem of the Irish border is crucial for Brexit, as soon as a compromise is found here, the chances of concluding a deal will increase in many respects. Therefore, tracing the negotiation process, traders should pay attention to this aspect.

By and large, the negotiators did not say anything new yesterday. But the bulls GBP / USD found their advantages in their rhetoric. First, the parties promised to speed up the process of finding a compromise, and secondly, they voiced the time guidelines. The market is already used to the idea that at this stage of the negotiations, London and Brussels will have the last chance to agree. Now, there is a clear timeframe and the so-called deadline. It is unlikely that these factors will provide long-term support to the pound, but in the short term, the pound got a reason for corrective growth.

Further prospects for price correction will depend on the behavior of the dollar. Ahead of the Greenback a few heavy days: today will be published the protocol of the Fed, tomorrow we can learn the first results of the visit of the Chinese delegation to the US, and on Friday the market will monitor the speech of the head of the Fed in Jackson Hole. In addition, Donald Trump can again strike a verbal blow at the dollar with his rhetoric - judging by the latest speeches, he will react sharply to the tightening of monetary policy. Jerome Powell has not yet responded to the attacks of the US president, but if this week he comments on the criticism of Trump, then we can talk about the beginning of their correspondence confrontation. This fact will undoubtedly increase the pressure on the American currency.

From the technical point of view, the situation for the GBP / USD pair is not unique. On the daily chart, the price is on the midline of the Bollinger Bands indicator, which is in the extended channel. This indicates a flat "outset" without a certain vector of motion. But if the pair fixates over the Kijun-sen line (that is, above the 1.2930 mark), the indicator Ichimoku Kinko Hyo will form the signal "Golden Cross", which will indicate a break in the southern trend. Such an arrangement will increase the likelihood of an upward movement with the main target 1.3190 (the lower boundary of the Kumo cloud on the daily chart). In turn, the support level is the price of 1.2780 - this is the Tenkan-sen line.

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As you can see, the general situation for the pound / dollar pair remains uncertain, both from the point of view of the "foundation" and the technical side. Only fixing the price above 1.2930 will allow us to speak with certain certainty about the priority of the northern movement.

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Gold felt the ground under your feet

While hedge funds and asset managers form the largest net short position in gold over the past 17 years, and investors are throwing off ETF products for 13 consecutive weeks, which is the longest period of losses since 2013, the Bank of Russia is not tired of buying precious metals . In July, he purchased 26.1 tons, having shown the most serious activity since November. As a result, gold reserves reached 2170 tons, which is equivalent to $ 77.4 billion. In an effort to get rid of dollar dependence in the face of economic sanctions, Moscow actively diversifies its reserves by dropping US Treasury bonds and buying precious metals.

Dynamics of gold reserves of the Bank of Russia

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While many investors are frightened by the rapid build-up of speculative short positions, others, on the contrary, say that reaching extreme levels is fraught with a sharp rise in prices. If there is an important information occasion. And he did not take long to wait. Donald Trump's statement about discontent with the monetary policy pursued by the Fed allowed the "bulls" in XAU / USD to go over to a counterattack and withdrew quotations from the field of a half-year bottom.

Everyone knows perfectly well that the main culprit of all the ills of gold is a strong dollar. Their 120-day inverse correlation exceeds 0.6, which is the maximum indicator for all assets of the commodity market. For comparison, the connection with US Treasury bonds is estimated at -0.2. As for the outflow of capital from specialized exchange funds, the demand for their products, as a rule, follows the price, and not vice versa.

Dynamics of capital flows in gold ETFs

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What's next? When unemployment is in the region of half a century of low, consumer prices are looking towards 3%, and GDP is ready to grow by 4% and higher for the second consecutive quarter, the Fed can afford to continue the cycle of normalizing monetary policy. At the same time, history knows examples when the aggressive monetary restriction of the Central Bank led the US economy to recession. The probability of a recession in 2020 is constantly increasing. And this clearly does not satisfy Donald Trump, who will have to participate in the presidential election with a view to re-election during this period. Hence the dissatisfaction with the activities of Jerome Powell.

Thus, the further dynamics of the precious metal is directly related to the fate of the dollar and the response of the chairman of the Fed to the US president. The next opportunity will be presented to him at the meeting of the world's leading bankers in Jackson Hole. It is doubtful that Powell went to open confrontation. Most likely, he will focus on macroeconomic statistics. However, if the markets consider the rhetoric of the head of the Central Bank "pigeon", the sale of the US currency will continue, which will allow gold to continue the southern campaign.

Technically, after reaching the target of 261.8% and 113% for the patterns AB = CD and "Double top", a natural rollback followed. If the "bulls" manage to storm the resistance by $ 1209 per ounce, the risks of development of correction to the downward trend will increase.

Gold, the daily chart

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USD/CAD analysis for August 23, 2018

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Recently, the USD/CAD pair has been trading upwards. The price tested the level of 1.3047. According to the M30 time – frame, I found broken support trendlines in the background, which is a sign that buyers are in control. I also found rejection from a strong support pivot cluster around the price of 1.2985. My advice is to watch for buying opportunities. The upward targets are set at the price of 1.3067 and at the price of 1.3090.

Resistance levels:

R1: 1.3033

R2: 1.3067

R3: 1.3090

Support levels:

S1: 1.2075

S2: 1.2950

S3: 1.2917

Trading recommendations for today: watch for potential buying opportunities.

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GBP/USD analysis for August 23, 2018

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Recently, the GBP/USD pair has been trading downwards. The price tested the level of 1.2849. According to the M15 time – frame, I found a potential double top pattern in the background, which is a sign that buying looks risky. I also found rejection from pivot cluster at the price of 1.2910 (weekly R2), which is another sign of weakness. My advice is to watch for potential selling opportunities. The downward targets are set at the price of 1.2836 and at the price of 1.2806.

Resistance levels:

R1: 1.2940

R2: 1.2970

R3: 1.3007

Support levels:

S1: 1.2873

S2: 1.2837

S3: 1.2806

Trading recommendations for today: watch for potential selling opportunities.

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The failure of negotiations between the US and China will lead to the growth of the dollar

Published on Wednesday, the minutes of the last meeting of the Federal Reserve on monetary policy clearly showed that at the September meeting on the 26th, the regulator is going to once again raise interest rates by 0.25%.

The minutes of the meeting showed the Fed's clear intention to raise interest rates at the September meeting. This was explained by the need to compensate for the strong growth of the economy, so that this did not cause its overheating with a further negative prospect of falling into a recession. In addition, the members of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) made it clear that they are alarmed by the uncertainty factor due to trade wars that could damage the national economy. The regulator also reported that it will continue the process of increasing the cost of borrowing, until the level is no longer stimulating the economy, but also not hindering its development rates. Another important point is the elimination of the phrase from the context of the protocol and in general the lexicon of the Federal Reserve that rates are stimulating.

In the wake of the publication of the minutes, the US dollar gained support against all major currencies. Perhaps, its further strengthening will intensify if negotiations between the U.S. and China on customs duties fail. In this case, the dollar will again be treated as the safe-haven currency on a par with the yen, the Swiss franc and US Treasury government bonds.

And there really is such a prospect. Today, China's commerce ministry reported that China will file a complaint to the WTO (World Trade Organization) on US tariffs. In addition, it was stated that it was strongly opposed to American duties and would be forced to continue to take retaliatory measures. Such a statement may indicate two things. On the one hand, the talks have not yet begun, and the Chinese are raising the stakes before the meeting. On the other hand, they are already on the way, it's just that this is not yet advertised and such a statement indicates problems that can lead to another inability of the parties to agree.

If this scenario takes place, it can be expected that it will cause a new wave of fears for the future of the world economy and a decline in investors' interest in buying risky assets. This will definitely cause demand for the US dollar, which, while receiving support, against the background of the process of the Fed's interest rate hike, will only increase its pressure on the foreign exchange markets.

The forecast for today:

The EUR/USD pair is testing the level of 1.1550 on the wave of continuing expectations of a rate hike from the Fed. The fall of the pair could intensify if the ECB's minutes shows a high degree of caution in the regulator's desire to change its monetary course. Against this background, the pair may fall after overcoming the level of 1.1550 to 1.1500, with the prospect of a decline to 1.1445.

The AUD/USD pair remains under pressure in anticipation of the outcome of the meeting between the Americans and the Chinese. A fall below 0.7285 could cause the price to drop to 0.7240 or even lower, to 0.7200.

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Technical analysis of AUD/USD for August 23, 2018

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Overview:

Pivot : 0.7359.

The AUD/USD pair continued to move upwards from the level of 0.7300. Since yesterday, the pair has risen from the level of 0.7299 (the level of 0.7299 coincides with the ratio of 38.2% Fibonacci Expansion) to the top around 0.7359. In consequence, the AUD/USD pair broke resistance at 0.7329, which turned into strong support at the level of 0.7329. In the H1 time frame, the level of 0.7299 is expected to act as major support today. Currently, the price is moving in a bullish channel. This is confirmed by the RSI indicator signaling that we are still in a bullish market. The price is still above the moving average (100) and (50). From this point, we expect the AUD/USD pair to continue moving in the bullish trend from the support level of 0.7359 towards the target level of 0.7400. If the pair succeeds in passing through the level of 0.7400, the market will indicate the bullish opportunity above the level of 0.7400 so as to reach the second target at 0.7454 (the double top). At the same time, if the AUD/USD pair is able to break out the level of 0.7329, the market will decline further to 0.7263.

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Technical analysis of GBP/USD for August 23, 2018

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Overview:

The GBP/USD pair rose from the level of 1.2854 towards 1.2936 yesterday. Now, the current price is set at 1.2883. On the H1 chart, the resistance is seen at the levels of 1.2936 and 1.2973. Besides, the weekly support 1 is seen at the level of 1.2817. Today, the GBP/USD pair is continuing to move in a bullish trend from the new support level of 1.2854, to form a bullish channel. Amid the previous events, we expect the pair to move between 1.2854 and 1.2973. Therefore, buy above the level of 1.2854 with the first target at 1.2936 in order to test the daily resistance 1 and further to 1.2973 (double top). Nevertheless, if the pair fails to pass through the level of 1.2973, the market will indicate a bearish opportunity below the level of 1.2973. The market will decline further to 1.2854 in order to return to the weekly pivot point. Additionally, a breakout of that target will move the pair further downwards to 1.2735.

Comment:

- The weekly pivot is seen at the level of 1.2854.

- The market is still in an uptrend. We still prefer the bullish scenario.

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Technical analysis of EUR/USD for August 23, 2018

EUR/USD has broken above 1.16 yesterday giving hopes for a bigger reversal to the upside and a long-term low, but the price got rejected and pulled back below 1.16. We are now at key resistance area and a rejection here will imply that EUR/USD is going to see new 2018 lows.

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Red lines - resistance trend lines

Black line - support

EUR/USD managed to push above the red downward sloping trend line coming from 1.24 but did not manage to close above it. The price has retaken the 1.15 level and this is a positive sign. However, as long as the price is below both red trend lines, we remain bearish looking for a move below 1.13. A break below 1.15 will increase the chances of this happening. If EUR/USD manages to break above 1.1650-1.1630 area we will turn neutral and slightly bullish EUR/USD.

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Technical analysis of Gold for August 23, 2018

The Gold price made a short-term spike above $1,200 but price soon after pulled back as expected towards $1,190. The price has broken out and below of the short-term bullish channel and is now pulling back. We cannot say confidently if a major low is in or this bounce was part of the larger decline that will eventually push us towards $1,140.

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Green lines - bullish channel

Red lines - new bearish channel

The Gold price is pulling back down. The pice should reach at least the 38% Fibonacci retracement if not the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement. The fact that price remains below $1,200 increases the chances of the bearish scenario that this was only a short-term bounce. If the Gold price continues to make lower lows and lower highs and breaks below $1,174, we should expect $1,140 to be seen. Keep also an eye on the USD/CNY and how the negotiations for the trade talks between US and China proceed. More tariffs on Chinese products will increase the chances of a Yuan devaluation and thus Gold will move lower as it is very positively correlated to CNY.

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Trading plan for 23/08/2018

Today's night was extremely interesting for people following the situation in the Pacific and Asian countries. The main topic is the situation in Australia where plenty of things happened.

On Thursday, the 23rd of August, the event calendar is quite busy with important data releases. during the European session, investors' eyes will be directed to the publication of PMI data from the Eurozone countries and the minutes from the last meeting of the ECB. During the US session, the USA will publish Unemployment Claims, ISM Manufacturing, Composite PMI and New Home Sales data.

AUD/USD analysis for 23/08/2018:

Australia and New Zealand Banking Group (ANZ) has started a series of important events in Australia. The bank has published the latest ANZ Stateometer. It shows that in the second quarter of the year, in four states accounting for nearly 90% of the country's GDP, there was a slowdown. In addition, all fell below the economic growth trend line.

Australian dollar reacted to this fact by a sudden weakening, and then another negative information appeared for the country. Australian Finance Minister Mathias Cormann resigned. What's more, he said that Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull has no party support and should also resign.

During a press conference called by the Australian Prime Minister, he said he was not going to give up his position. He added that if he receives a letter in which the majority of party members will be in favor of his dismissal, then he will give up and resign from returning to being a senator. In addition, the forthcoming deliberations of the Australian Parliament were postponed until September 10.

As if that was not enough, Australia decided to prohibit the Huawei phone manufacturer from participating in the construction of mobile infrastructure in the country. For now, China's answer is unknown, but the markets expect some retaliation.

Let's now take a look at the AUD/USD technical picture at the H4 time frame. The Australian dollar, as a result of all reports, became the weakest currency overnight. The scale of falls was not very big, AUDUSD dived about 50 pips, but when Europe joins the trade, traders may see further declines. The nearest technical support is seen at the level of 0.7278, just below the 50% Fibo retracements of the last swing up. The other important level is 61% Fibo at 0.7271, so if this one is violated, then the market might try to test the support at the level of 0.7246. On the other hand, the nearest resistance is seen at the level of 0.7342.

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Ethereum analysis for 23/08/2018

The Google Play store on Android has recently become the home of another application for the Ethereum fraud.

Lukas Stefanko, a malware researcher from Slovakia, found a fake application called "Ethereum" on Google Play, which was offered at a price of 335 euros or about 388 dollars. In yesterday's tweet, the researcher pointed out that the purchase of applications is not the same as buying Ethereum, which suggests that his latest discovery is a cryptographic fraud aimed at deceiving users by pretending the original Ethereum altcoin, with a current value of around $ 290.

Tweet Stefano informs that the application, which is described as "Ethereum only", was developed by the so-called "Google Commerce Ltd", and it was installed more than 100 times since the last update in August 2017. The real name of the application developer supported by Google in The Google Play store is "Google LLC." Currently, this app is no longer available on Google Play.

On July 27, Google introduced a ban on the application to extract crypts in the Play Store, allowing only remote mining applications. According to The Next Web, despite the recent ban, many illegal applications such as JSEcoin still appear in the store. The agency notes that developers have 30 days to adapt to changes since the policy update date.

Earlier in April, the technology giant also announced a ban on all extensions that would allow mining in the Chrome Web Store. In March, Google followed Facebook, announcing the ban on all types of ads related to cryptography, which later affected the markets.

Let's now take a look at the ETH/USD technical picture at the H4 time frame. The market is still moving inside the blue channel after the bounce from the level of $246. The nearest technical support is seen at the level of $255 and the nearest technical resistance is seen at the level of $268 and $278. The market conditions remain oversold, but the momentum is not rising yet.

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Bitcoin analysis for 23/08/2018

Bank in Liechtenstein, Union Bank AG announced in a press release that it is issuing its own security tokens and an internal cryptocurrency supported by Fiat.

Union Bank, which this year is increasingly focused on Blockchain, said the issue of the so-called "Union Bank Payment Coin (UBPC)" was the next step towards becoming a "full-service investment bank, Blockchain".

UBPC will act as a stablecoin, as the institution explained, and will have support for currencies such as the Swiss franc.

Our goal is to become the world's first Blockchain investment bank and provide tangible solutions that help increase efficiency, reduce the cost base and open up new revenue opportunities for both our clients and agents. Therefore, our "Union Bank Payment Coin" supported by the currency can potentially change the approach to international trade and international cross-border transactions.

- says the chairman of the board, Mohammad Hans Dastmaltchi.

In the same week, news appeared that in this small European principality, Binance, one of the main cryptocurrencies, launched a fiat-crypto exchange. Both Binance and Union Bank praised the pro-Blockchain attitude of jurisdiction.

Let's now take a look at the Bitcoin technical picture at the H4 time frame. The market has backed off from the recent local highs after a failed attempt to break through the level of $6,782. Currently, the market is trading inside of the range again, just in the middle of it and close to the weekly pivot at the level of $6,358. The horizontal correction continues and the nearest technical support is seen at the level of $6,179.

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Technical analysis: Intraday Level For EUR/USD, Aug 23, 2018

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When the European market opens, some Economic Data will be released such as Consumer Confidence, Flash Services PMI, Flash Manufacturing PMI, German Flash Services PMI, German Flash Manufacturing PMI, French Flash Services PMI, and French Flash Manufacturing PMI. The US will release the Economic Data too, such as Natural Gas Storage, New home sales, Flash Services PMI, Flash Manufacturing PMI, HPI m/m, Unemployment Claims, so, amid the reports, EUR/USD will move in a low to medium volatility during this day.

TODAY'S TECHNICAL LEVEL:

Breakout BUY Level: 1.1644.

Strong Resistance:1.1637.

Original Resistance: 1.1626.

Inner Sell Area: 1.1615.

Target Inner Area: 1.1587.

Inner Buy Area: 1.1559.

Original Support: 1.1548.

Strong Support: 1.1537.

Breakout SELL Level: 1.1530.

Disclaimer: Trading Forex (foreign exchange) on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all Traders or Investors. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.

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Technical analysis: Intraday level for USD/JPY, Aug 23, 2018

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In Asia, Japan will release the Flash Manufacturing PMI data, and the US will release some Economic Data such as Natural Gas Storage, New Home Sales, Flash Services PMI, Flash Manufacturing PMI, HPI m/m, and Unemployment Claims. So there is a probability the USD/JPY will move with low to medium volatility during this day.

TODAY'S TECHNICAL LEVEL:

Resistance. 3: 110.45.

Resistance. 2: 110.23.

Resistance. 1: 110.02.

Support. 1: 109.75.

Support. 2: 109.54.

Support. 3: 109.32.

Disclaimer: Trading Forex (foreign exchange) on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all Traders or Investors. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.

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Elliott wave analysis of EUR/NZD for August 23, 2018

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Nothing much to say here. The range-trading between 1.7211 to 1.7355 continues. We expect short-term important resistance at 1.7355 to be broken soon. A break above this resistance will open up the upside as red wave iii really starts to develop towards 1.7924 and 1.8369 as the next important upside targets.

That said, we need to accept the possibility of more sideways consolidation between 1.7196 and 1.7355 as long as short-term important resistance is not broken.

R3: 1.7484

R2: 1.7417

R1: 1.7355

Pivot: 1.7327

S1: 1.7281

S2: 1.7221

S3: 1.7196

Trading recommendation:

We will re-buy EUR at 1.7205 or upon a break above 1.7327 and place our stop at 1.7200.

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Elliott wave analysis of EUR/JPY for August 23, 2018

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EUR/JPY still has not broken important short-term resistance at 128.48, but then it has not started to move strongly lower as we normally should expect at the completion of an expanded flat. Therefore we are shifting our preferred count in favor of wave C and II having completed with the test of 124.86 and wave III now in its infancy.

Under this count EUR/JPY should make a small downward correction towards 127.23 - 127.33 area in red wave iv and then move higher towards the 128.92 - 129.32 area in red wave v. This will complete black wave i/ and should set the stage for a corrective decline in wave ii/ towards the 125.76 - 126.44 area before the next impulsive rally higher.

That said, the possibility of a final dip closer to 124.62 remains possible, but time is running out fast.

R3: 128.92

R2: 128.48

R1: 128.24

Pivot: 127.93

S1: 127.72

S2: 127.50

S3: 127.33

Trading recommendation:

We are 50% long EUR from 126.26 with our stop placed at 126.84. We will take profit on the final 50% at 128.75.

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Global macro overview for 22/08/2018

In July, the Bank of Russia added to its treasury a substantial amount of gold, continuing the policy of systematically increasing the reserves of the royal metal. The spice is added by the fact that in the spring Russia sold off its US government bonds.

Russia increased its gold reserves by 26.1 tons, to the level of 2 170 tons - according to data from the International Monetary Fund. At the end of the previous month, Russian gold reserves were worth 77.4 billion dollars.

The mere fact of buying gold by the Bank of Russia is no surprise. For more than a decade, Russians have been systematically increasing metal reserves, on average a dozen or so tons per month. And so in June, the Bank of Russia reported an increase of 15.8 tons, in May by 18.4 tons, and in April by 19 tons. But July shopping was the biggest since November 2017.

Data on Russian gold purchases is hardly connected with the sanctions that the US government imposed on Russia in recent months. So far, it has been painful to hit the businesses of the Russian oligarchs that Washington carried out in April. The Kremlin's response is to try to overthrow the dollar as a global reserve currency. The Russian authorities are participating in the "anti-dollar" coalition together with China, Iran and, more recently, Turkey.

Let's now take a look at the Gold technical picture in the daily time frame. The market has bounced from the level of $1,159 and currently is trading close to the level of $1,204 which now will act as a technical resistance for the price. The market conditions are oversold and the bounce is being supported by the momentum indicator as well. On the lower time frame, the nearest intraday support is seen at the level of $1,181.20.

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Global macro overview for 22/08/2018

The global investors had to wait for almost seven months until the SP500 index set a historic new all-time high. Everything took place quietly and as if with such a measure of shyness. But the high is high and it may soon be the longest bull market in post-war US history.

Tuesday's macroeconomic calendar was practically empty. Quarterly results of the large developer Toll Brothers proved to be a support for stock exchange bulls, whose shares have increased by over 13%. Turks had their free day, which for some time allowed the headlines to be removed from the Turkish currency crisis. We'll see how long it will take to calm down on the Bosporus.

The maximum value of the SP500 during Tuesday's session was 2873.33 points. The January record of all time has been improved by only 0.36 points. Formally, we have a new record, but in practice, it is just the alignment of the previous one and the threat of creating a double high remains on the table. Nevertheless, in the second part of the session, the New York indexes did not maintain the initial increases. The SP500 ended the day with an increase of only 0.23% and a result of 2,862.96 points. Dow Jones went up by 0.25%, and Nasdaq by 0.49%.

The new maximum after the increase of over 1% was determined by the affiliate of the smaller US companies, the Russell2000 index. This ratio has gained almost 12% since the beginning of the year, falling better than SP500 (+ 7% YTD), Dow Jones (+ 4.5%) and losing only to Nasdaq Composite (+ 14%).

According to the US financial media, the current boom on Wall Street is already 3,452 days long and has just equalized the record from the 90s of the twentieth century, when the indexes grew for almost a whole decade. The bull market in the US dates its birth on March 6, 2009.

Let's then take a look at the SP500 technical picture in the daily time frame. The market has made a Doji candlestick formation, which might indicate a possible correction in the uptrend. However, the Doji candlestick formation has not yet been confirmed, so the traders need to wait until the daily candle will close. The long-term trend is still up and this would be the first clue regarding a possible trend reversal as well. The nearest support is seen at the level of 284.97 and the key technical support is located at the level of 279.48.

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Inflation will support the euro

Inflation will support the euro.

The latest figures show growth of salaries in the euro area, the total salaries increased in the 2nd quarter at a rate of + 2.2% per annum, compared to a growth of + 1.7% in the 1st quarter. The growth of wages is a very reliable precursor to accelerating inflation. Low inflation is the ECB's longstanding concern, as inflation is below the 2% target which is the main reason that the ECB continues to adhere to non-standard policies. The ECB rate is 0%, while the rate on deposits for banks is minus 0.4%.

The ECB under the plan should completely complete the program of pumping liquidity markets in December this year.

Markets are now waiting for the ECB's next meeting on September 13.

The main topic for the EUR/USD course is the differential of the monetary policy of the Fed and the ECB. The Fed raises rates according to the plan of two more increases by + 0.25% before the end of this year. The ECB said it did not plan to raise the rate until at least the summer of 2019.

It appears that the euro will decline. So, it seems to happen after a two-month consolidation in the range 1.1500 - 1.1800, as the euro went down and passed to 1.1300.

But it was enough for US President Trump to publicly criticize the Fed's rate hike, and the euro literally rose to 1.1600 in three days.

Much can be decided on Friday in Jackson Hole at the Federal summit, which will meet the heads of the world's largest securities. Fed Chairman Jerome Powell will speak on Friday.

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* The presented market analysis is informative and does not constitute a guide to the transaction.

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Wave analysis of EUR/USD for August 22. The euro has the potential growth in the area of 18 figures

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Analysis of wave counting:

During the trading session on Tuesday, the EUR/USD currency pair gained another 90 bp. Thus, the construction of the first wave in the future wave and the correction section of the trend continues its formation. An unsuccessful attempt to break through the 61.8% Fibonacci level can lead to the withdrawal of quotations from the achieved highs and the beginning of the construction of the correctional wave 2, or b. The break of the lows of August 15 will lead to the complication of the downward trend section.

Targets for selling:

1.1301 - 0.0% Fibonacci retracement

Targets for buying:

1.1575 - 61.8% Fibonacci retracement

1.1640 - 76.4% Fibonacci retracement

1.1747 - 100.0% Fibonacci retracement

General conclusions and trading recommendations:

The pair has supposedly completed the construction of the downward trend section. If this is the case, the increase in quotations will continue with the targets near the estimated levels of 1.1575, 1.1640 and 1.1747, which corresponds to 61.8%, 76.4% and 100.0% Fibonacci. Hence, it is recommended to buy the pair and selling should not be made prior receiving a signal about the resumption of the downward trend. For example, a successful attempt to break through the mark of 1.1301 is equivalent to 0.0% of Fibonacci.

* The presented market analysis is informative and does not constitute a guide to the transaction.

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How the leaders of the US Central Bank see the prospects for raising interest rates

All the attention on Wednesday in the second half of the day will be focused on the protocols held on 31 July and 1 August meeting of the Federal reserve system, which will allow you to fully conclude on how the heads of the Central Bank of the United States see the prospects of higher interest rates in the second half of this year.

Let me remind you that at the last meeting the interest rate remained unchanged, in the range of 1.75% -2%, and the Fed made a statement that the U.S. economy remains strong.

A number of investors are counting on new signals from the Fed about the number of interest rate increases this year, as well as in the next year. The question of the neutral level of interest rates is the subject of discussion. Many experts agree that this range will be in the range from 2.50% to -2.75%. Thus, we can conclude that the Fed is expected to have at least three more increases before the normalization of monetary policy.

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Meanwhile, the US dollar continues to decline against a number of risky assets after the news that former adviser to US President Donald Trump was found guilty of violating the laws on election financing. This seriously increases political uncertainty in the United States. Whether the White House's political course will continue in the current direction is still unknown.

As for the technical picture of the EUR/USD pair, then buyers coped with the task and pulled the pair under the large resistance levels of 1.1620 and 1.1660. As I noted, only their breakthrough, which can take place after the publication of the Fed's protocols, will form a new upward wave in risky assets. If the pressure on the euro increases, support will be provided by the nearest support level of 1.1540 and 1.1490.

The Australian dollar fell against the US dollar after statements made today by the Deputy Governor of the Reserve Bank of Australia. Christopher Kent said that it is necessary to have more confidence that inflation will meet the target level, as it is not known how long the slowdown projected in the third quarter of this year will be. In his view, there remains some uncertainty regarding the indicator of the equilibrium unemployment rate, while the difference in interest rates of central banks now has less impact on foreign exchange markets.

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Trading plan for the US session on August 22 GBP/USD

To open long positions for GBP/USD, it is required:

Buyers have worked out the morning signal to buy the pound, and now their main goal is to update the weekly high around 1.2943, where I recommend to lock in the profit. In the event of a decline in the GBP/USD pair in the second half of the day, you can return to buying only on the rebound from the support of 1.2845 and 1.2814.

To open short positions for GBP/USD, it is required:

It is best to consider short positions in the pound after the resistance update in the area of 1.2943 or after the return and consolidation under a large support level of 1.2875, which could not be done in the morning. A breakthrough of 1.2875 will lead to the formation of more serious pressure on the GBP/USD pair with a return to 1.2845, where I recommend to lock in the profit. However, the main goal of sellers will be a low of 1.2814.

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Indicator description

  • Moving Average (average sliding) 50 days - yellow
  • Moving Average (average sliding) 30 days - green
  • MACD: fast EMA 12, slow EMA 26, SMA
  • Bollinger Bands 20
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EUR / USD: ignore the FRS protocol

So, the EUR/USD pair was able to cross the middle line of the Bollinger Bands indicator, which coincides with the Kijun-sen line of the Ichimoku Kinko Hyo indicator, thereby gaining above the resistance level of 1.1540. This fact can be recorded in the total asset of the bulls' EUR/USD achievements, especially since they did not stop there and currently test the 16th figure.

The US currency, in turn, is actively giving up positions: the dollar index has now dropped to the 94th figure, although last week it updated its annual high, reaching 96.5 points. Among EUR/USD traders, there is now an active struggle for the 16th figure: the pair's bulls need to stay in this price area in order to demonstrate their advantage. Bears have a more difficult task: to return the price below the level of 1.1540, thus provoking a large-scale price retracement.

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The fundamental picture that has been formed in recent days does not allow the dollar to be aggressive. The US currency is forced to reckon with a serious opponent in the person of the US president, who has taken the path of its further growth. The incessant criticism of Trump against the actions of the Fed is making the traders nervous. And the reaction of the market turned out to be undulating. Contrary to the opinion of some experts that Verbal intervention by Trump will have a short-term impact, the configuration of dollar pairs has changed quite seriously. For example, the USD/CHF pair moved away from the parity area by almost 200 points, and the pound returned for the first time in 2.5 weeks to the 29th figure. The EUR/USD pair also continued the northern movement, thus forming a price bottom at the bottom of the 13th figure.

It is interesting to look at the monthly EUR/USD chart, or rather, on monthly candles: during the whole summer, the bears tried to squeeze the price out of the range, but in each case they failed. So, in June, the monthly minimum was at the level of 1.1508, in July - at 1.1575, this month - 1.1301. Despite such bearish pressure, the pair each time closed the month on the border of 16 and 17 figures. Among the figures given, August stands out, which renewed the price minimum for the year at the base of the 13th figure. This is due to the economic crisis in Turkey, which jeopardized the stability of the banking sector in Europe. If it were not for the "Turkish factor", the last month of the summer would certainly not be different from its predecessors - in other words, the pair would fluctuate in the price range of 1.1510-1.1705. However, despite such force majeure, the EUR/USD pair, by all accounts, will not break the tradition of this summer, having completed the month in approximately the same price area where it started.

All this suggests that in the long run, traders did not determine the vector of the pair's movement. The EUR/USD pair was actively declining during April and May, but having reached the region of the 15th figure, the southern impulse lost its force, and the pair actually fluttered - the monthly time frame is eloquent. Obviously, even such a long and wide-range flat has its borders, primarily of a temporary nature. In my opinion, the pair will be able to break out of the above price range due to several factors.

First of all, these are trade relations between the US and China. If the rumors of a pending armistice are justified, then the fundamental background for the dollar will change quite noticeably. Now the dollar is viewed as an "island of security" in the light of increased geopolitical risks. Once these fears are leveled, traders will focus on the macroeconomic indicators of the EU and the US, in the light of the prospects for the actions of the Fed and the ECB.

And here the dollar will not have such an unequivocal advantage, especially if you remember the latest statements of Donald Trump. And especially if the US economic indicators begin to show a decline. For example, according to many experts, US GDP in the third quarter will not stay within four percent (as in the second quarter), but, most likely, will be below three percent.

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The strengthened dollar will have a corresponding impact on the sphere of foreign trade, especially in terms of exports. For the same reason, inflation may slow down. And here it is worth considering that Donald Trump blames the Federal Reserve for the rise in the price of the national currency - so if in the third quarter there is a decline in key indicators, the US president will increase public pressure on the Fed. And by and large it does not matter whether the members of the regulator will listen to Trump's criticism or not. The events of recent days show that the market is very sensitive to the verbal intervention of the head of the American state.

Summarizing the above, it should be noted that the current correctional growth of the pair EUR/USD looks quite logical, if we consider the logic of the pair's movement in recent months. Today's publication of the Fed's protocol is unlikely to change the mood of traders. Moreover, I would recommend not to trust the market's reaction to today's release, because tomorrow or the day after tomorrow we will learn the first results of the US-China talks, and this factor can completely redraw the fundamental picture of the pair EUR/USD. All other events (except Friday's speech by the head of the Fed in Jackson-Hole) are of secondary importance.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com