Indicator analysis. Daily review for July 2, 2019 for the EUR / USD currency pair

Trend analysis (Fig. 1).

On Tuesday, the price may continue the downward trend with the first target of 1.1260 - a pullback level of 50.0% (yellow dashed line).

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Fig. 1 (daily schedule).

Comprehensive analysis:

- indicator analysis - down;

- Fibonacci levels - down;

- volumes - down;

- candlestick analysis - down;

- trend analysis - down;

- Bollinger lines - down;

- weekly schedule - down.

General conclusion:

On Tuesday, the price may continue the downward trend with the first target of 1.1260 - a pullback level of 50.0% (yellow dashed line). This is most likely to happen after lunch (after 9.00 Universal time).

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Trading plan for EUR/USD for July 02, 2019

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Technical outlook:

The EUR/USD pair dropped to 1.1275 in the early hours of trade today before bouncing back. The price is seen to be trading around 1.1290 levels at this moment. The wave structure discussed earlier has been again presented here on the hourly chart with labeling. The initial rally from 1.1180 through 1.1412 levels unfolded into 5 waves labeled as wave 1. It was followed by a 3-wave corrective drop as a-b-c flat structure that looks to be complete. Please note that wave b might have unfolded as a triangle followed by an impulsive wave c, which might drop one last time towards 1.1250/70 levels. If you have already taken profits on short positions, please prepare to go long around 1.1250/70 levels from here on. Those who are still holding short positions might take full profits at 1.1270 and turn bullish again. Please note that 1.1180 remains strong support and the uptrend shall remain intact until prices remain above 1.1180 going forward. The interim resistance at 1.1412 should be taken out soon.

Trading plan:

Take profits on short positions from 1.1380/1.1400 levels at 1.1270 and turn long.

Good luck!

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Technical analysis of ETH/USD for 02/07/2019:

Crypto Industry News:

One of the largest banks in South Korea is planning to intensify regulations regarding bills associated with cryptographic exchanges.

The "special measures" proposed by Shinhan Bank would involve the involvement of staff in the analysis of transactions on accounts. It is believed that the bank hopes to distance itself from claims that it helps financial criminals as the number of frauds related to exchanges increases.

Later, in July, the bank also hopes to launch a monitoring system that uses artificial intelligence and deep learning to quickly and accurately identify fraudulent transactions: "We have created a comprehensive plan to eliminate telecommunications and financial fraud [...] We will continue to implement preventive measures in the future customers have not been harmed, "said spokesman Shinhan Bank.

These measures arise because cryptographic exchanges continue to fall victim to hackers - including the South Korean Bithumb platform. This market has suffered several serious attacks. In March, over three million EOS (with the then value of USD 17.5 million) were stolen from the hot portfolio. The bigger attack that took place last summer was the theft of 17 million dollars in 11 cryptocurrencies, mainly Bitcoin and Ethereum.

Technical Overview:

The ETH/USD pair is testing the technical support at the level of $275.41, but the bearish pressure is big. Only a clear, impulsive and sustained breakout above the level of $290.08 would be a signal for the uptrend to resume. Otherwise, the correction might be unfolding and evolve into a more complex and time-consuming pattern. The next technical support is seen at the level of $259.80.

Weekly Pivot Points:

WR3 - $16,315

WR2 - $14,938

WR1 - $12,895

Weekly Pivot - $11,624

WS1 - $9,683

WS2 - $8,320

WS1 - $6,345

Trading Recommendations:

The best strategy in the current market conditions is to trade with the larger timeframe trend, which is still up. All the shorter timeframe moves are being treated as a correction inside of the uptrend. The current cycle is wave 2 of the higher degree, which is a corrective wave and after is completed, the uptrend should resume.

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Technical analysis of BTC/USD for 02/07/2019:

Crypto Industry News:

Bitcoin was profitable as an investment for 98.2% of the days since its creation. Counting 3,830 days back - until January 4, 2009, the day after Block Genesis was hacked - holdcalc data suggests that for 3671 of them it was profitable to buy Bitcoin as an investor.

This leaves 69 unprofitable days - which cover virtually all days in December 2017, at the top of the historic Bitcoin run to $ 20,000 - and almost the entire January 2018.

The latest collection of unprofitable days recorded in the data takes place at the end of last month - between June 25 and June 29, 2019 - when the coin was sold between $ 11,170 and $ 12,907.

Parallel to the ongoing statistics, the analysis of the cryptocurrency market published by twitter handle CL on 24 June suggests that Bitcoin entered the so-called "The phase of hiding" of his renewed run of the bull.

The study begins by noting that the largest coin has exceeded both the 50-week and 50-day moving average, and analyzes the realized value of Bitcoin - a metric that was reported for the first time proposed by the researcher Coin Metrics. The realized value, according to the survey, is the weighted upper limit of the UTXO market for BTC - i.e. a measure of the value of all coins in circulation at the price at which they were recently traded.

The survey proves that the general public has failed to assess the current price increase, given that the number of Google searches for "Bitcoin" is so big today, with over $ 10,000, as in 2013, when Bitcoin had only $ 1,000. " .

Technical Overview:

The BTC/USD has made another wave lower and is currently testing the technical support located at the level of $9,827. So far there are no signs of any trend resumption and the overall wave progression is still corrective in nature. The waves A and B had been completed and now the market is unfolding wave C. Please notice this is still the uptrend and the current correction is the local correction in the uptrend.

Weekly Pivot Points:

WR3 - $16,315

WR2 - $14,938

WR1 - $12,895

Weekly Pivot - $11,624

WS1 - $9,683

WS2 - $8,320

WS1 - $6,345

Trading Recommendations:

The best strategy in the current market conditions is to trade with the larger timeframe trend, which is still up. All the shorter timeframe moves are being treated as a correction inside of the uptrend. The larget correction is just around the corner, as all the major impulsive waves have been completed.

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Technical analysis of GBP/USD for 02/07/2019:

Technical Overview:

The GBP/USD pair jas broke out of the consolidation zone located between the levels of 1.2746 - 1.2652 and now is heading lower towards the next technical support seen at the level of 1.2605. Please notice the 61% Fibonacci retracement that is located at the level of 1.2611, just above the support. This is a pretty good zone for the bulls to show their strength, especially that the market conditions are now oversold. The local pull-back is expected from these levels.

Weekly Pivot Points:

WR3 - 1.2870

WR2 - 1.2829

WR1 - 1.2757

Weekly Pivot - 1.2708

WS1 - 1.2629

WS2 - 1.2585

WS1 - 1.2508

Trading Recommendations:

The best strategy for the current market conditions is to buy the corrections in anticipation of the uptrend to resume. This strategy is valid as long as the level of 1.2505 is clearly violated. The larget time frame trend is still down and the recent rally up is the first sign the trend might be reversing. The key long-term technical resistance is seen at the level of 1.2775 and only if this level is violated, there is a chance for the trend reversal.

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Technical analysis of EUR/USD for 02/07/2019:

Technical Overview:

The EUR/USD pair has hit 50% Fibonacci retracement seen at the level of 1.1259 and now is heading lower towards the level of 1.1260 (61% Fibonacci retracement). The weak and negative momentum support the bearish short-term outlook, but the 61% Fibo might be a good level for a temporary pull-back higher. Nevertheless, due to the weak momentum, the outlook still favors the downside.

Weekly Pivot Points:

WR3 - 1.1462

WR2 - 1.1438

WR1 - 1.1392

Weekly Pivot - 1.1368

WS1 - 1.1333

WS2 - 1.1302

WS1 - 1.1259

Trading Recommendations:

The best strategy for the current market conditions is to buy the corrections in anticipation of the uptrend to resume. This strategy is valid as long as the level of 1.1181 is clearly violated. The larget time frame trend is still down, but there are signs of the trend reversal and the Ending Diagonal breakout to the upside.

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Forecast for EUR/USD on July 2, 2019

EUR/USD

So it happened. On Monday, the euro lost 84 points, and this may indicate a withdrawal of players from speculative purchases of the 3rd decade of June. Business media explains yesterday's growth as a market reaction to a truce between the US and China, although in reality China remains under the same duties and sanctions, Trump only promised to reconsider its attitude towards Huawei. If the situation had worsened, then the dollar would also have strengthened, but with other comments, investors are fleeing from risk. This is a key point in understanding the medium-term market outlook.

On the daily chart, the Marlin oscillator signal line entered the decline zone (-0.0009) this morning. On the four-hour chart, the price consolidated below the balance (red indicator) and MACD lines. The immediate goal of the decline is the daily price channel line near the MACD line, at 1.1230. Leaving prices below the line opens up subsequent targets for Fibonacci levels: 1.1156 (110.0%), 1.1074 (123.6%).

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Elliott wave analysis of GBP/JPY for July 2, 2019

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There are signs that GBP/JPY will take off for a strong rally in the wave 3. On the other side, a possible impulsive pattern from 135.35 is not clear yet, which provides additional opportunities. It could also be a leading diagonal. If it is a leading diagonal, we may see a deeper correction closer to 136.25 before the next impulsive rally higher through the minor 137.79 peak towards 138.31 and above.

R3: 137.79

R2: 137.54

R1: 137.24

Pivot: 136.78

S1: 136.58

S2: 136.25

S3: 136.05

Trading recommendation:

We are long GBP from 137.25 with our stop placed at 136.50.

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Forecast for GBP/USD on July 2, 2019

GBP/USD

No matter how much the British pound tried to overcome the accumulation of technical resistance at the same time on the daily and four-hour charts, it could not do it. However, we are inclined to believe that the pound did not have such a desire, since trading volumes in the last four sessions were on the decline. On the daily chart, the resistance was the embedded line of the price channel and the balance line (red indicator), on the four-hour balance line and the MACD line (blue).

At the moment, the Marlin oscillator signal line on the daily has been slightly delayed at the border with the territory of decline. On H4, this line is in consolidation, perhaps a short continuation. Immediate targets: 1.2530 - a low of December 14, 2018, then 1.2305 - support for the embedded line of the price channel at the point of coincidence with the November 2016 low.

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Elliott wave analysis of EUR/JPY for July 2, 2019

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EUR/JPY has dipped just below the 122.25 corrective target. We expect the support area between 122.13 - 122.25 will continue to protect the downside for a breakout above minor resistance at 122.42 and, more importantly, above resistance at 123.00 that confirms the next impulsive rally towards 124.14 and higher.

Only an unexpected breakout below 121.62 will frustrate our bullish outlook.

R3: 123.00

R2:122.63

R1: 122.42

Pivot: 122.14

S1: 121.85

S2: 121.62

S3: 121.47

Trading recommendation:

We are long EUR from 121.98 with our stop placed at 121.60

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Technical analysis: Important Intraday Levels For EUR/USD, July 02, 2019

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When the European market opens, some economic data will be released such as PPI m/m, Spanish Unemployment Change, French Gov Budget Balance, and German Retail Sales m/m. The US will also publish the economic data such as Wards Total Vehicle Sales, so amid the reports, the EUR/USD pair will move with low to medium volatility during this day. TODAY'S TECHNICAL LEVELS: Breakout BUY Level: 1.1341. Strong Resistance: 1.1335. Original Resistance: 1.1324. Inner Sell Area: 1.1313. Target Inner Area: 1.1287. Inner Buy Area: 1.1261. Original Support: 1.1250. Strong Support: 1.1239. Breakout SELL Level: 1.1233. (Disclaimer)The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Technical analysis: Important Intraday Levels for USD/JPY, July 02, 2019

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In Asia, Japan will release the 10-y Bond Auction and Monetary Base y/y. The US will also publish some economic data such as Wards Total Vehicle Sales. So there is a probability the USD/JPY pair will move with low to medium volatility during this day. TODAY'S TECHNICAL LEVELS: Resistance. 3 : 109.10. Resistance. 2: 108.80. Resistance. 1: 108.59. Support. 1: 108.32. Support. 2: 108.11. Support. 3: 107.90. (Disclaimer)The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

USD/CHF approaching resistance, potential reversal!

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USDCHF is approaching resistance where we might be seeing a drop below this level.

Entry: 0.9904

Why it's good : Horizontal pullback resistance, 61.8% Fibonacci extension, 61.8%, 38.2% Fibonacci retracement

Stop Loss : 0.9955

Why it's good : Horizontal pullback resistance, 78.6% Fibonacci retracement

Take Profit : 0.9817

Why it's good: Horizontal overlap support

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NZD/USD at support, potential bounce!

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Price is at support where a potential bounce to its resistance could occur.

Entry : 0.6672

Why it's good : 23.6% Fibonacci retracement, 100% Fibonacci extension, horizontal overlap support

Stop Loss : 0.6606

Why it's good : 61.8% Fibonacci extension

Take Profit : 0.6721

Why it's good : 50% Fibonacci retracement, horizontal overlap resistance

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USD/JPY bounced up support, possible bounce!

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Price is bouncing up 1st support at 108.118, a bounce could occur.

Entry :108.118

Why it's good : 23.6% Fibonacci retracement

Horizontal pullback support

61.8% Fibonacci extension

Take Profit : 108.73

Why it's good :horizontal swing high resistance

61.8% & 50%Fibonacci retracement

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Forecast for USD / JPY pair on July 2, 2019

USD / JPY pair

On the daily scale chart, the price rises upward after convergence along with the Marlin oscillator and the signal line moves to the growth zone. However, the price increase turned out to be excessively strong on Monday. Even a gap was formed that greatly complicates the further movement of the currency pair.

On the four-hour chart, the oscillator divergence is already visible. It forms the following main scenario from current levels. The price decreases to the MACD line on H4 to a maximum on June 21 and then resumes growth to the resistance at 109.00 (to the price channel line) and 109.35 (MACD line) on the daily chart.

After reaching the first goal, the price can close the window (gap) later but the probability of such a scenario is about 20%.

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Forecast for Oil (CL) on July 2, 2019

Oil (CL)

On the weekly scale chart, oil has reversed from the point of intersection of the Fibonacci retracement level of 50.0% with the MACD indicator line, which is a dynamic trend line. Smaller scale charts will be considered to confirm the reversal but here, we will also highlight the reduction target of 55.60. The intersection point of the Fibonacci level 61.8%, which is 38.2% of the correction from the entire decline part in 2018. The grid is expanded to identify long-term goals below the level of 100.0% and the enclosed line of the decreasing price channel. The second target is the Fibonacci extension of 61.8% at 51.60 that started at least in 2016.

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On the daily chart, an obvious reversal is not visible but the price is developing below the MACD line. the line itself is directed downwards, indicating a downward main trend. The Marlin oscillator signal line has slowed in growth and is visually ready for a reversal.

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On the four-hour chart, the reversal signal in Marlin is firmly fixed with almost double divergence and a signal line in the zone of negative numbers. With the exit of the price under the MACD line (58.27), a signal will be formed to open short positions.

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Fractal analysis of major currency pairs on July 2

Forecast for July 2:

Analytical review of H1-scale currency pairs:

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For the euro / dollar pair, the key levels are: 1.1329, 1.1309, 1.1296, 1.1277, 1.1253, 1.1238 and 1.1208. Here, the development of the downward trend is expected 1.1277. In this case, the target is 1.1253. Price consolidation is in the range of 1.1253 - 1.1238. For the bottom value, we consider the level of 1.1208. After the breakdown of the level of 1.1238.

Short-term upward movement, possible in the range 1.1296 - 1.1309. The breakdown of the latter will lead to in-depth correction. Here, the goal is 1.1329. This level is a key support for the downward structure.

The main trend is the downward trend from June 24.

Trading recommendations:

Buy 1.1296 Take profit: 1.1307

Buy 1.1310 Take profit: 1.1327

Sell: 1.1275 Take profit: 1.1255

Sell: 1.1236 Take profit: 1.1210

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For the pound / dollar pair, key levels on the H1 scale are: 1.2713, 1.2680, 1.2664, 1.2628, 1.2584 and 1.2555. Here, we are following the development of the downward structure of June 25th. The continuation of the movement to the bottom is expected after the breakdown of the level of 1.2628. In this case, the goal is 1.2584, wherein consolidation is near this level. For the potential value for the bottom, we consider the level of 1.2555. After reaching which, we expect to go into a correction.

Short-term upward movement is expected in the range of 1.2664 - 1.2680. The breakdown of the last value will lead to a prolonged correction. Here, the target is 1.2713. This level is a key support for the downward structure.

The main trend - the downward structure of June 25.

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 1.2664 Take profit: 1.2680

Buy: 1.2682 Take profit: 1.2710

Sell: 1.2626 Take profit: 1.2586

Sell: 1.2582 Take profit: 1.2557

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For the dollar / franc pair, the key levels on the H1 scale are: 1.0008, 0.9980, 0.9938, 0.9905, 0.9858, 0.9831 and 0.9802. Here, we continue to follow the development of the ascending cycle of June 25. The continuation of the movement to the top is expected after the breakdown of the level of 0.9905. In this case, the target is 0.9938, and near this level is a price consolidation. The breakdown of the level of 0.9938 should be accompanied by a pronounced upward movement. Here, the target is 0.9980. For the potential value for the top, we consider the level of 1.0008. After reaching which, we expect consolidation, as well as a rollback to the correction.

Short-term downward movement is possible in the range of 0.9858 - 0.9831. The breakdown of the latter value will lead to a prolonged correction. Here, the goal is 0.9802. This level is a key support for the top. Its price will lead to the development of the downward structure. Here, the potential goal is 0.9738.

The main trend is the ascending cycle of June 25.

Trading recommendations:

Buy : 0.9905 Take profit: 0.9936

Buy : 0.9939 Take profit: 0.9980

Sell: 0.9858 Take profit: 0.9832

Sell: 0.9829 Take profit: 0.9802

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For the dollar / yen pair, the key levels on the scale are : 110.09, 109.56, 109.21, 108.70, 108.04, 107.80 and 107.44. Here, we continue to follow the development of the ascending structure of June 25. The continuation of the movement to the top is expected after the breakdown of the level of 108.70. In this case, the goal is 109.21. Short-term upward movement, as well as consolidation is in the range of 109.21 - 109.56. For the potential value for the top, we consider the level of 110.09. The movement to which, is expected after the breakdown of the level of 109.56.

Short-term downward movement, perhaps in the range of 108.04 - 107.80. The breakdown of the latter value will lead to in-depth correction. Here, the goal is 107.44. This level is a key support for the top.

The main trend: the ascending structure of June 25.

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 108.70 Take profit: 109.20

Buy : 109.24 Take profit: 109.53

Sell: 108.04 Take profit: 107.82

Sell: 107.78 Take profit: 107.46

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For the Canadian dollar / US dollar pair, the key levels on the H1 scale are: 1.3180, 1.3142, 1.3115, 1.3069, 1.3027, 1.3001 and 1.2961. Here, we continue to monitor the local downward structure of June 25. At the moment, the price is in the correction zone. The continuation of the movement to the bottom is expected after the breakdown of the level of 1.3069. In this case, the goal is 1.3027. Price consolidation is in the range of 1.3027 - 1.3001. For the potential value for the bottom, we consider the level of 1.2961. After reaching which, we expect a rollback to the top.

Consolidated movement is possible in the range of 1.3115 - 1.3142. The breakdown of the latter value will lead to a prolonged correction. Here, the target is 1.3180. This level is a key resistance for the development of the ascending structure. Its breakdown will make it possible to count on movement towards the potential target - 1.3235.

The main trend is a local downward structure from June 25.

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 1.3143 Take profit: 1.3180

Buy : 1.3182 Take profit: 1.3230

Sell: 1.3067 Take profit: 1.3027

Sell: 1.3001 Take profit: 1.2961

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For the pair Australian dollar / US dollar, the key levels on the H1 scale are : 0.7097, 0.7077, 0.7039, 0.7012, 0.6972, 0.6954 and 0.6927. Here, we are following the development of the ascending structure of June 18. At the moment, the price is in correction and forms the potential for the downward movement of June 28. The continuation of the movement to the top is expected after the breakdown of the level of 0.7012. In this case, the goal is 0.7039, and near this level is a price consolidation. The breakdown of the level of 0.7040 must be accompanied by a pronounced upward movement. Here, the goal is 0.7077. For the potential value for the top, we consider the level of 0.7097. Upon reaching this level, we expect a consolidated movement in the range of 0.7077 - 0.7097, as well as a rollback to the bottom.

Consolidated movement is possible in the range of 0.6972 - 0.6954. The breakdown of the last value will lead to a prolonged correction. Here, the target is 0.6927. This level is a key support for the top.

The main trend is the upward structure on June 18, the correction stage is the formation of potential for the bottom of June 28.

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 0.7012 Take profit: 0.7037

Buy: 0.7041 Take profit: 0.7077

Sell : Take profit :

Sell: 0.6952 Take profit: 0.6930

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For the euro / yen pair, the key levels on the H1 scale are: 124.28, 123.73, 123.49, 122.82, 122.28, 122.07 and 121.74. Here, we are following the development of the ascending structure of June 21. The continuation of the upward movement is expected after the breakdown of the level of 122.82. In this case, the first target is 123.49. A short-term upward movement, as well as consolidation is in the range of 123.49 - 123.73. The breakdown of the level of 123.73 should be accompanied by a pronounced upward movement to the potential target - 124.28.

Short-term downward movement is expected in the range of 122.28 - 122.07. The breakdown of the last value will lead to a prolonged correction. Here, the goal is 121.74. This level is a key support for the upward structure.

The main trend is the upward structure of June 21, the stage of correction.

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 122.82 Take profit: 123.49

Buy: 123.50 Take profit: 123.72

Sell: 122.28 Take profit: 122.08

Sell: 122.05 Take profit: 121.75

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For the pound / yen pair, the key levels on the H1 scale are : 139.10, 138.58, 138.21, 137.73, 137.13, 136.88 and 136.49. Here, we continue to monitor the ascending structure of June 25. The continuation of the movement to the top is expected after the breakdown of the level of 137.73. In this case, the target is 138.21. A short-term upward movement, as well as consolidation is in the range of 138.21 - 138.58. For the potential value for the top, we consider the level of 139.10. The movement to which, is expected after the breakdown of the level of 138.58.

Short-term downward movement is possible in the range 137.13 - 136.88. The breakdown of the latter value will lead to a prolonged correction. Here, the target is 136.49. This level is a key support for the top.

The main trend is the local rising structure of June 25.

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 137.75 Take profit: 138.20

Buy: 138.25 Take profit: 138.55

Sell: 137.13 Take profit: 136.90

Sell: 136.85 Take profit: 136.50

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The manufacturing sector has increased the headache of the ECB and hit the euro

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According to the survey, production activity in the eurozone declined last month more than previously thought. Pessimistic data is likely to strengthen the position of those who require the ECB to ease monetary policy. In June, the total index of purchasing managers (PMI) from IHS Markit was 47.6 points, which is lower than the previously recorded figure of 47.8 points and May points 47.7 points. This is the fifth month in a row, when the indicator is below the level of 50 points, separating growth from reduction.

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"Production in the eurozone remains at a standstill in a steep decline in June, continuing to fall at the fastest pace in the last six years. Disappointing survey data completes the second quarter, where the average PMI was the lowest since the first months of 2013," comments Chris Williamson, chief economist at IHS Markit. All this indicates that the beginning of the second half of the year will be weak, new orders fall for the ninth month, stocks of new materials are not replenished, the number of personnel has decreased for the second month in a row. To try to stimulate demand, manufacturers almost do not raise prices. The PMI price index in the manufacturing sector fell to 50.6 points compared with the May 51.6 points, reaching the lowest level since September 2016. Official data showed that inflation in the eurozone remained weak in June, at 1.2%, which is far from the 2% that the ECB would like. The decline in production is increasingly helping to reduce inflationary pressures, as manufacturers and suppliers restrain price increases in order to keep customers and increase sales. ECB President Mario Draghi, in his speech last month, spoke of the need for additional incentives in the absence of any acceleration in economic growth and inflation. According to a recent Reuters survey, by the end of September, the central bank will either lower the rate on deposits, or even further weaken its forward forecasts.

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EUR / USD vs USD / JPY vs EUR / JPY Daily. Comprehensive analysis of movement options for July 2019. Analysis of APLs &

Minor (Daily) operating scale

Let me bring to your attention a comprehensive analysis of the movement options for the development of the EUR / USD vs USD / JPY vs EUR / JPY movement for July 2019 on the Minor (daily timeframe) operational scale.

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Euro vs US Dollar

For July 2019, the movement of the single European currency EUR / USD will be due to the working out and direction of the breakdown of the equilibrium zone (1.1370 <-> 1.1445 <-> 1.1515) of the Minuette operating scale (movement options within this zone are shown in the animated graphic).

EUR / USD return below the lower limit of ISL38.2 (support level of 1.1370) of the balance zone Minuette operational scale fork -> continuation of the downward movement of the single European currency to the boundaries of the a Median Line channel Minute (1.1325 <-> 1.1280 <-> 1.1230) with the prospect of reaching the Median Line (support level of 1.1185) of the Minor operational scale.

The breakdown of resistance level of 1.1515 (upper limit of ISL61.8 equilibrium zone of the Minute operational scale fork) -> option to achieve a single European currency with the final Schiff Line (resistance level of 1.1655) of the Minor operational scale fork.

Markup options for the movement of EUR / USD can be seen at the animated graphics ->

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US Dollar vs Japanese Yen

The movement of USD / JPY for July 2019 will be due to the testing and direction of the breakdown of the 1/2 Median Line channel boundaries (106.35 <-> 107.45 <-> 108.30) of the Minuette operating scale.

The breakdown of the resistance level of 108.30 (upper limit of the channel 1/2 Median Line Minute) -> a variant of the development of USD / JPY movement inside the 1/2 Median Line channel (108.30 <-> 109.50 <-> 110.60) of the Minor operating scale fork with the prospect of achieving the goals - > warning line LWL38.2 Minor (111.30) <-> control line UTL Minuette (111.65) <-> maximum 112.45.

In the event of the breakdown of the lower boundary of the 1/2 Median Line channel Minuette (106.35), it will be possible to continue the development of the downward movement of USD / JPY to the final Schiff Line (104.45) of the Minor operational scale and the upper limit of the ISL38.2 (103.80) balance zone of the Minuette operational scale fork.

Markup options for the movement of the USD / JPY are shown in the animated graphic ->

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Euro vs Japanese Yen

The development of the movement of cross-instrument data currency instruments EUR / JPY for July 2019 will be due to the working out and direction of the breakdown of the boundaries of the 1/2 Median Line channel (122.45 <-> 123.15 <-> 123.75) of the Minuette operating scale fork. The details of this movement are presented in animated graphics.

The breakdown of the support level of 122.45 (the lower limit of the 1/2 Median Line channel Minuette) -> the development of the downward movement of the cross instrument can be continued to the targets -> the initial SSL line (121.20) of the Minuette operational scale fork <-> 1/2 Median Line (120.60) Minor operational scale fork <-> LTL control line (120.30) Minuette operational scale fork.

The breakdown of the resistance level of 123.75 (upper limit of the 1/2 Median Line channel Minute) -> continued development of the upward movement of EUR / JPY to the equilibrium zone (124.20 <-> 125.25 <-> 126.20) of the Minuette operational scale fork.

The markup of the EUR / JPY movement options for July 2019 is presented in the animated graphic ->

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The review was compiled without regard to the news background. The opening of trading sessions of the main financial centers does not serve as a guide to action (placing orders "sell" or "buy")

The formula for calculating the dollar index is

USDX = 50.14348112 * USDEUR0.576 * USDJPY0.136 * USDGBP0.119 * USDCAD0.091 * USDSEK0.042 * USDCHF0.036.

where power ratios correspond to the weights of currencies in the basket:

Euro - 57.6%;

Yen - 13.6%;

Pound sterling - 11.9%;

Canadian dollar - 9.1%;

Swedish krona - 4.2%;

Swiss franc - 3.6%.

The first coefficient in the formula gives the index value to 100 on the starting date - March 1973, when the main currencies began to be freely quoted relative to each other.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

What are the coming days for the euro and pound?

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The desire of the United States and China to make concessions and resume trade negotiations was perceived positively by the markets. Donald Trump promised to suspend the process of imposing sanctions. In addition, the US allowed Chinese Huawei to buy its technology, with the exception of strategic products associated with the G5 network. China, in turn, will buy more US agricultural products.

News from the Japanese Osaka contributed to the continuation of the rally in global stock markets, while the safe haven asset decreased in price due to moderate demand for risk-sensitive currencies. However, the good mood and a certain slackness, most likely, will not last long, since for serious fundamental changes it is necessary to stop the trade wars. Uncertainty has not really disappeared anywhere, which means that the rate cut in July will still happen. Trump will certainly continue to criticize the Fed. The US president still needs a scapegoat, and Jerome Powell is best suited for this role.

A thaw in US-China relations will allow Fed officials to focus on statistics and the health of the US economy. Something suggests that easing the policy will be inappropriate in the best half-year terms of the S&P 500 from 1997, increasing consumer spending and for the third month in a row exceeding the PCE monthly growth rates. Inflation in the US really looks modest (1.6%), but it can easily reach the target (2%).

A number of global strategists, including economists at Deutsche Bank, believe that the US regulator will lower the rate this year purely symbolically and then return it to its former state in order to support record economic expansion in the United States. This suggests a temporary weakness of the dollar. Was it really worth getting rid of dollars so actively?

The desire of other world central banks to reduce the rate will benefit the US currency. The dollar's status as a safe haven asset in the medium to long term could have been undermined by the end of trade wars, but this has not yet happened. It is not necessary to count on the rapid ascent of the EUR/USD pair, since the eurozone is still weak. Quotes of the main pair are likely to continue to consolidate around $1.12-1.14.

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About the pound

As for the pound, the general news background, including the last summit in Japan, does not set it in motion. It is also worth noting that Brexit has ceased to be a good reason for speculation. On Sunday, Boris Johnson again promised the best for Britain's exit from the EU if he wins the election. Pound traders completely ignored this message. Voting for the leader of the Conservative Party will end on July 22, and from the 23rd in the UK there will be a new prime minister.

Traders should pay attention when voting for British MPs on Wednesday on the expenditure side of the budget with amendments to stop funding if the government chooses a "hard" Brexit without ratification by Parliament. The legality of such a correction of the plan for financial expenses is doubtful, but this is still the only fundamental factor of pressure on the pound.

The overall distribution of large volumes remains the same, in the meantime, a priority to sell remains. We should look at the PMI industry and services with the publication on Monday and Wednesday, respectively.

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The dollar welcomes the truce of the United States and China, but the greenback's joy might be short-lived

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The exchange rate of the US currency is growing in relation to the majority of its main competitors against the background of the fact that over the past weekend the United States and China reached an agreement on the resumption of trade negotiations.

"The market's positive reaction to the results of the meeting of the two leaders will be short-lived, and the dollar will resume falling," said Daisuke Karakama, chief economist at Mizuho Bank.

He noted that the parties did not reach a long-term peaceful resolution, while the desire of the US Federal Reserve System (FRS) to lower the interest rate remains in force.

According to the analyst, the euro and the yen are the currencies that will benefit most from the weakness of the greenback.

Currency strategists at Wells Fargo forecast that in the medium term, EUR/USD will rise to a level of 1.18. However, they do not exclude growth to 1.20.

Nissay Asset Management experts believe that the strengthening of the dollar against the yen will be limited to 108.50, as the improvement in risk sentiment caused by the truce of Washington and Beijing will be short-lived. In addition, the potential easing of monetary policy by the Fed will put pressure on greenbacks.

"In the foreseeable future, the theme of the decline in the dollar exchange rate will become one of the key ones," said representatives of Aberdeen Standard Investments.

"The decision of the United States and China to resume negotiations almost did not affect the market's expectations regarding further Fed actions, so traders will continue to rely on weakening the greenback," the experts are certain.

In May, the USD index reached annual highs amid rising demand for the US currency as a safe-haven asset. However, since then, namely after the appearance of a signal about the readiness of the Fed, for the first time in ten years to reduce the interest rate, the greenback has fallen in price by more than 2%.

According to the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), big speculators have been reducing their long positions in the dollar for three weeks in a row. Derivatives market lays in quotes fast interest rate reduction in the United States and expects that the Fed can go for it in July.

According to analysts of DBS Group Holdings, given the fact that tensions in trade relations between the United States and China temporarily faded into the background, US statistics will again be in the focus of attention of traders.

This week, there will be data on business activity in the manufacturing sector and the US service sector, releases on the volume of industrial orders and the trade balance of the country, as well as a report on the US labor market in June.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

AUD/USD. July meeting of the RBA: preview

The Australian dollar paired with the US currency overcame the key resistance level of 0.7000 at the end of last week, demonstrating a strong upward momentum. For two weeks, the pair grew steadily, rising from an annual low of 0.6838 to a local peak of 0.7027. But the bulls did not manage to stay at a high altitude: the US dollar strengthens its position against the background of the truce between the US and China, while the Australian dollar weakens throughout the market in anticipation of the July meeting of the RBA, which will be held on July 2 All other fundamental factors (for example, the continuing increase in the value of iron ore) are of secondary importance.

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Recall that at the end of the G-20 summit, the United States agreed not to introduce additional tariffs on Chinese imports, while canceling certain (but not all) restrictions on the telecommunications giant Huawei. Beijing, in turn, agreed to resume purchases of American agricultural products (the volume and list of goods remain unknown). In general, the parties agreed to return to the negotiating table, giving traders hope for the de-escalation of the US-China conflict. On the first trading day of the week, this optimism prevailed throughout the market, which provided support to the dollar. The AUD/USD pair here is no exception: the greenback puts quite a strong pressure on the price - the aussie lost more than 150 points in half a day.

On the one hand, the trade truce between the United States and China is good news for the Australian currency, since the Australian economy is quite dependent on the Chinese. But the main beneficiary of the current situation is still the US dollar, since the risk of aggressively lowering the interest rate of the Fed has decreased significantly. The market does not exclude the possibility of monetary policy easing at the next meeting or in September, but almost completely eliminated the option of a one-time rate reduction by 50 basis points at once. Before the G20 summit, the probability of such a move was 26%. Also, some experts today suggested that the US regulator would take a wait-and-see attitude, postponing consideration of the issue of reducing rates for the second half of autumn. There are a lot of versions, but most of them boil down to the fact that the Fed will reconsider its position due to a decrease in geopolitical tensions.

Although, in my opinion, the market makes premature conclusions, and the US dollar is growing only on emotions, the fact remains: anti-risk sentiment has now dropped, the trade war has been paused, and the likelihood of the Fed's aggressive actions regarding the rate cut has decreased to almost zero. All this makes it possible for the greenback to dominate in nearly all dollar pairs, including in conjunction with the Australian dollar, which is waiting for the next round of the RBA rate cut.

The minutes of the June meeting of the Reserve Bank of Australia, published 2 weeks ago, made it clear that the regulator would not be satisfied with a one-time rate reduction: according to members of the regulator, further easing of monetary policy may be needed "soon" against the ambiguous situation in the labor market and the economy as a whole . Australian GDP growth in the first quarter really slowed to a ten-year low. GDP grew by only 1.8% over the same period last year. Compared with the previous quarter, the key indicator increased in January-March by 0.4%. The result was weaker than even the most pessimistic forecasts. The unemployment rate also shows a negative trend: in April it rose to the level of 5.2% and in May remained at the same values, although experts predicted a decline to the 5% mark. The increase in the number of employees should also be viewed through the prism of the structure of this indicator. In May, part-time employment increased significantly, while full-time employment (where higher wages) showed a minimal increase. This dynamic affects Australian consumer activity and ultimately inflation.

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The head of the RBA recently spoke about the existing probability of interest rate reduction. At the beginning of the week before last, he said that a one-time reduction in the rate to a record-low level of 1.25% would not be enough to stimulate economic growth. By this, he confirmed the market's concerns regarding the future actions of the Australian regulator. In addition, currency strategists at Westpac (one of the largest banks in Australia) again reminded of their forecast - in February they warned that the RBA would lower the rate twice even three times this year. After the relevant comments of Lowe, it became clear that the sounded scenario may well come true.

Chinese data also added fuel to the fire. The manufacturing index PMI, calculated by Caixin, fell in June to 49.4 points. For the first time in four months, the indicator fell below the key mark of 50 - this indicates that manufacturing activity in China fell in June against the background of a trade conflict with the US

Thus, the Reserve Bank of Australia is likely to lower its interest rate by 0.25% tomorrow. This fact is already partially taken into account in prices, so the initial effect will be limited to the support level of 0.6930 (at this price point, the Tenkan-sen Kijun-sen lines on the daily chart intersect). Further price dynamics will depend on the rhetoric of Philip Lowe. If he allows further easing of monetary policy, AUD/USD will go to the support level of 0.6850 (the bottom line of the BB on the daily and weekly charts). If the regulator will assure the market that now the RBA will take a wait-and-see position, a rebound to the level of 0.7000 is not excluded, with a possible overcoming of this price barrier. Therefore, one should not trust the initial reaction of the market to the decision of the Australian central bank, especially considering the fact that the speech of the head of the RBA will take place 5 hours after the announcement of the results of the July meeting.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com