Bitcoin analysis for September 05, 2018

analytics5b8fcbb6ae8d2.png

Trading recommendations:

According to the H4 time - frame, I found that strong supply entered the market and that most recent upward diagonal got broken, which is a sign that sellers are in control. The price is near the key support trendline ($6.800) and my advice is to watch for potential breakout to confirm further downward continuation. I see the whole upward channel like a bearish flag, which is a sign that Bitcoin might visit the level of $5.932 (downward target). Additionally I found a potential large head and shoulders pattern in creation and hidden bearish divergence on the macd oscillator. Watch for selling opportunities.

With InstaForex you can earn on cryptocurrency's movements right now. Just open a deal in your MetaTrader4.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Intraday technical levels and trading recommendations for EUR/USD for September 5, 2018

analytics5b8fc8d08e9ef.png

The price zone of 1.1520-1.1420 stands as a prominent demand zone to be watched for bullish rejection and possible bullish pullbacks.

The EUR/USD pair is currently trapped between the depicted technical levels (1.1750 - 1.1500). Breakout movement should be anticipated.

Bearish breakdown of 1.1520 will probably allow a further decline towards 1.1420. The next bearish target would be located around 1.1275.

For the major reversal pattern to be confirmed, a quick bearish breakdown below 1.1420 will be needed to gain enough bearish momentum.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

EUR / USD for September 5. Trading system "Regression channels". Progressive decline in the pair continues

4-hour timeframe

analytics5b8f7ca96138d.png

Technical data:

Senior channel of linear regression: direction - down.

The younger channel of linear regression: the direction is up.

Moving average (20, smoothed) - down.

СCI: -72.9665

Yesterday, the EUR / USD currency pair fell to the level of Murray "5/8" and could not overcome it, having started adjusting to the moving middle line. There were no important events and news in the European Union and the States yesterday. Thus, the most important conclusion that can be drawn now is that traders have no reason to change their preferences in the foreign exchange market. Proceeding from this one factor, it can be assumed that until such reasons appear (if they appear), the US dollar can continue to go up in tandem with the euro. What can affect the preferences of traders? First of all, this, of course, is the policy of Donald Trump. Markets have recently reacted to any escalation of the trade conflict by dollar purchases. Thus, the weakening of trade wars can lead to demand for risky assets, in particular, the euro. Furthermore, the targeted actions of Trump on the weakening of the national currency may affect the US dollar negatively. This includes any scandals in the White House, investigations into Trump's relations with the Russian Federation and any other events that will cast a shadow over the States. The third is an increase in the trade deficit and a fall in GDP. First of all, the growth of the trade balance deficit, as Trump's trade war is aimed precisely at reducing it. If this does not happen, traders can lose faith in the validity of Trump's actions in the international arena. First of all, the growth of the trade balance deficit, as Trump's trade war is aimed precisely at reducing it. If this does not happen, traders can lose faith in the validity of Trump's actions in the international arena. First of all, there is the growth of the trade balance deficit, as Trump's trade war is aimed precisely at reducing it. f this does not happen, traders can lose faith in the validity of Trump's actions in the international arena.

Nearest support levels:

S1 - 1.1536

S2 - 1.1475

S3 - 1,1414

Nearest resistance levels:

R1 = 1.1597

R2 = 1.1658

R3 = 1.1719

Trading recommendations:

The EUR / USD currency pair may resume a downward movement. The goal for shorts today is the level of 1.1536. The signal for the opening of short positions will be the downturn of the Heiken Ashi indicator or a rebound of the price from the level of Murray "6/8".

It is recommended to open a buy order only after fixing the price above the moving average line with the target of 1.1658. In this case, the initiative will pass into the hands of bulls, which will be able to resume the formation of the uptrend.

In addition to the technical picture, one should also take into account the fundamental data and the time of their release.

Explanations for illustrations:

The upper channel of linear regression is the blue lines of unidirectional motion.

The lowest linear regression channel is the violet lines of unidirectional motion.

CCI - the blue line in the indicator window.

Moving average (20; smoothed) - the blue line on the price chart.

Levels of Murray - multi-colored horizontal stripes.

Heiken Ashi is an indicator that color bars in blue or purple.The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Analysis of Gold for September 05, 2018

analytics5b8fc44982be3.png

Recently, Gold has been trading sideways at the price of $1,194.00. According to the M15 time – frame, I found a rising upward trendline, which is a sign that intraday buyers are in control. The price also broke the daily pivot ($1,193.90). I found a hidden bullish divergence on the RSI (14) oscillator, which is another sign of strength in the background. Watch for selling opportunities. The upward targets are set at the price of $1,198.55 and at the price of $1,201.45.

Resistance levels:

R1: $1,198.63

R2: $1,206.26

R3: $1,210.98

Support levels:

S1: $1,186.28

S2: $1,181.55

S3: $1,173.95

Trading recommendations for today: watch for potential buying opportunities.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Fundamental Analysis of USD/CAD for September 5, 2018

USD/CAD has been impulsive with the bullish momentum recently which bounced off the 1.3050 after recovering the bullish gap this week. Ahead of the high impact USD and CAD reports this week, the certain gains on the USD does indicate an imbalance in the market structure.

Recently USD has been quite positive with the high impact economic report ISM Manufacturing PMI report which showed an increase to 61.3 from the previous figure of 58.1 which was expected to decrease to 57.6. The positive economic report did help USD to gain more impulsive momentum over CAD yesterday leading to further upward pressure in the process. Today USD Trade Balance is going to be published which is expected to decrease to -50.2B from the previous figure of -46.3B. Moreover, this Friday, Average Hourly Earnings report is going to be published which is expected to decrease to 0.2% from the previous value of 0.3%, Non-Farm Employment Change is expected to increase to 193k from the previous figure of 157k and Unemployment Rate is expected to decrease to 3.8% from the previous value of 3.9%.

On the CAD side, today Trade Balance report is going to be published which is expected to decrease to -1.1B from the previous figure of -0.6B and BOC Rate Statement with Overnight Rate is going to be published which as well is expected to be unchanged at 1.50%. Additionally, on Friday, CAD Employment Change is expected to have drastic fall to 5.1k from the previous figure of 54.1k and Unemployment Rate is expected to increase to 5.9% from the previous value of 5.8%.

As of the current scenario, USD is quite hawkish than CAD with the upcoming economic reports which if the expectations are met, USD is expected to gain further momentum against CAD leading to further upward momentum in the process. Though certain negotiations with USD and CAD is going on currently which may also have certain impact on the upcoming currency market situations.

Now let us look at the technical view. The price has been quite impulsive with recent bullish pressure which is expected to lead towards 1.3280-1.3350 area in the coming days. Though the dynamic level is quite far from the current price momentum but the pressure towards the resistance area is expected to be quite non-volatile in the process. As the price remains above 1.3050 area, the bullish bias is expected to continue further.

SUPPORT: 1.2950, 1.3050

RESISTANCE: 1.3280, 1.3350

BIAS: BULLISH

MOMENTUM: IMPULSIVE and NON-VOLATILE

analytics5b8f707e69d8b.png

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

USD/JPY analysis for September 05, 2018

analytics5b8fb68316ef8.png

Recently, the USD/JPY pair has been trading upwards. The price tested my key resistance sell zone at 111.70 (Fibonacci retracement 88.6%). I found completed a bearish bat pattern, which is a legit bearish opportunity. I also found a hidden bearish divergence on the RSI (14) oscillator, which is another sign of weakness. Watch for selling opportunities with the downward targets at the price of 111.19 and at the price of 110.85. Pattern will be invalid if the price breaks the level of 111.84.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Fundamental Analysis of EUR/JPY for September 5, 2018

EUR/JPY has been volatile and corrective at the edge of 129.00-50 area from where the price is expected to head lower in the coming days. Both currencies in the pair have been trading with mixed dynamics amid the recent economic reports which lead the price to indecision in the process.

Today Spanish Services PMI report is going to be published which is expected to decrease to 52.1 from the previous figure of 52.6, Italian Services PMI is expected to decrease to 53.2 from the previous figure of 54.0, French Final Services is expected to be unchanged at 55.7, German Final Services is expected to remain unchanged as well at 55.2, and Final Services PMI is also expected to be unchanged at 54.4. Moreover, the eurozone's Retail Sales report is expected to decrease to -0.1% from the previous positive value of 0.3%. Despite certain tensions like ECB's risk reduction situation, EUR is still trading higher, but its momentum is expected to fade quite quickly.

On the other hand, BOJ has recognized the recent drawbacks whereas current focus is on tightening of Financial Regulations, Technological Innovation and Increased use of Future of Asset Management. JPY has been performing quite mixed recently including increase in Capital Spending to 12.8% from the previous value of 3.4% and Monetary Base decreasing to 6.9% from the previous value of 7.0% which was expected to decrease to 6.3%. On Friday, JPY Household Spending report is going to be published which is expected to increase to -0.9% from the previous value of -1.2% and Average Cash Earnings is expected to decrease to 2.4% from the previous value of 3.3%.

Meanwhile, EUR is forecasted to get weaker amid soft economic data. Whereas JPY is still quite strong fundamentally in comparison to EUR. So, JPY is expected to have an upper hand in the current market situation, leading to further downward momentum in the process.

Now let us look at the technical view. The price is currently residing inside the range of 129.00-50 area from where a daily close below 129.00 area will help bears to gain impulsive momentum in the process. Additionally, MACD showing Bearish Convergence also provides the needed indication for further bearish momentum. As the price remains below 130.00 area, the bearish bias is expected to continue further with target towards 124.50-125.00 area.

SUPPORT: 124.50, 125.50, 129.00

RESISTANCE: 129.50, 130.00, 131.00, 132.00

BIAS: BEARISH

MOMENTUM: VOLATILE

analytics5b8f6ce359882.png

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

GBP / USD. 5th of September. The trading system "Regression channels". Mark Carney remains, but traders and in this see only

4-hour timeframe

analytics5b8f7ce1457c8.png

Technical data:

The senior channel of linear regression: direction - down.

The younger channel of linear regression: the direction is up.

Moving average (20, smoothed) - down.

CCI: -86.4213

The GBP / USD currency pair worked perfectly the level of Murray "1/8", after which it was completely corrected. But we are already accustomed to these minimal corrections of the pound sterling. Yesterday, there was information that Mark Carney would not leave, as he had assumed earlier, the chair of the Bank of England until the end of the Brexit procedure. It would seem that this is good news, but traders saw this as a negative bell. And in logic, they can not be denied. Once the UK government realizes the seriousness of the Brexit procedure and clearly does not want to change the regulator's head, the situation may well get out of control, and the new manager may worsen, not improve the situation. Moreover, if Carney had left his post, everyone would have immediately remembered the resignations of Boris Johnson and David Davis, the key persons in the Brexit talks. In general, there is no reason to expect the strengthening of the pound sterling. On Wednesday, September 5, in the UK will be published indices of business activity in the services sector and the composite index. Decrease in these indicators or inconsistency with the forecast values may cause a new wave of sales of the British currency. From the States today is expected to report on the balance of foreign trade for July. And although the reaction to this report may not follow, in itself this information will be very interesting in the light of the trade wars of Donald Trump, aimed precisely at reducing the deficit balance.

Nearest support levels:

S1 = 1.2817

S2 - 1.2695

S3 - 1,2573

Nearest resistance levels:

R1 = 1.2939

R2 = 1.3062

R3 = 1.3184

Trading recommendations:

The currency pair GBP / USD has fulfilled the level of 1.2817. If the indicator of Heikin Ashi turns down or the price overcomes the first target, then the bears will continue to sell the pair with the target of 1.2695. In this case, it is recommended to stay in short positions.

Long positions will be considered after the instrument is fixed above the moving average line with targets of 1.2939 and 1.3062. In this case, the initiative will pass into the hands of bulls, but at the moment, this option looks unlikely.

In addition to the technical picture, one should also take into account the fundamental data and the time of their release.

Explanations for illustrations:

The upper channel of linear regression is the blue lines of unidirectional motion.

The junior channel is linear-violet lines of unidirectional motion.

CCI - the blue line in the regression window of the indicator.

Moving average (20; smoothed) - the blue line on the price chart.

Levels of Murray - multi-colored horizontal stripes.

Heikin Ashi is an indicator that color bars in blue or purple.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Pound and the euro: such different problems

Contrary to expectations, the ISM business activity index for the US manufacturing sector increased in August from 58.1p to 61.3p, keeping a significant gap from the similar index from Markit. Most experts were guided by the fact that the ISM and PMI Markit indexes will begin to converge, especially since a number of regional offices of the Federal Reserve Bank reported a noticeable decline in production activity last month, which gave grounds for pessimistic forecasts.

Now, players are again at a loss, because the growth of ISM means that Trump's reforms are gaining momentum and the risks identified in the recent speech of the head of the Federal Reserve Powell are becoming less significant. Forecasts for the dollar change in the bull side, the threat of slowing the growth rate of the Fed rate has become less obvious.

The dollar strengthened at the beginning of the week, as the threat of an escalation of the trade war with China is entering a new orbit. Today, the period of public discussion of yet another package of restrictions on imports from China with a volume of 200 billion is coming to an end, and the likelihood that Trump will immediately announce the introduction of the package is quite high. Markets are preparing for this shock, on Tuesday, stock indexes around the world were traded in the red zone, the dollar is again in demand as a protective currency.

EUR / USD

Unlike the US, business activity in the euro area is clearly on the decline, as it is immediately affected by two negative factors. First, the completion of the program of buying back the assets of the ECB and secondly, the threat of a large-scale trade war between the EU and the US.

The PMI index in August remained at the same level of 54.6p, output is at 12-month lows, which usually indicates a reduction in the manufacturing sector as a whole.

analytics5b8f7635cd39e.png

Today, PMI reports will be published in the services sector and retail sales in July, and further the euro will react primarily to external factors, primarily the US labor market report.

September, the last month when the ECB will buy bonds worth 30 billion euros, in October and until the end of the year, the volumes of redemption will slow to 15 billion per month, while purchases are planned in the peripheral countries of the eurozone, such as Finland, Ireland or Portugal, the share of France, Germany and Italy will have significantly less assets. In fact, it is a question of the already refusal to support the three largest economies of the eurozone, which will be reflected in the slowdown in business activity in the euro area as a whole.

The currency pair EUR / USD is losing direction, as the risks of both the euro's growth and the decline are currently balanced. The currency pair EUR / USD on Wednesday with high probability will be traded in the range delineated from above by resistance of 1.1635, from below the support level of 1.1550.

GBP / USD

The pound started the week with a decline, the immediate cause of which was a rather harsh article in the Telegraph premiere of Theresa May, in which she stated that there were no plans to make any compromises on Brexit if they threatened plans for the country's development. Britain wants to limit the jurisdiction of the European Court of Justice and withdraw from the customs union, which will untie the government's hands in concluding its own foreign trade and political agreements without looking back at Brussels. The prospect of being complete without a deal, May does not scare, she said, the absence of a deal is generally better than a deal on bad terms.

The European Union also insists that Britain's attempt to select from the whole range of agreements only the points that suit it will lead to chaos and is not in the interest of the EU at all since it will provoke a roll of similar demands from other countries.

The political impasse provoked the sale of the pound, but the macroeconomic indicators were not up to par. PMI in the manufacturing sector declined to 52.8p against 53.8p in July, in the construction sector the drop is even more pronounced from 55.8p to 52.9p.

The pound will remain in the next day under pressure, but the rate of decline will slow down. Probably the reduction to support 1.2797, the top pound is limited by resistance 1.2870.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Analysis of EUR / USD Divergences for September 5. 1.1550 - a serious obstacle on the way down

4h

analytics5b8f714870116.png

The currency pair EUR / USD on the 4-hour chart cleared the correction level of 50.0% to 1.1546 and reversed in favor of the European currency after the bullish divergence of the CCI indicator. As a result, the pair performed growth to the level of Fibo 61.8% - 1,1605. Quit of quotations from the correction level of 61.8% will allow counting on a turn in favor of the US currency and a return to Fibo level of 50.0%. Fixing the pair above the correction level of 61.8% will work in favor of further growth in the direction of the next correctional level of 76.4% - 1.1675.

The Fibo grid is built on extremes from July 9, 2018, and August 15, 2018.

Daily

analytics5b8f71528dfa4.png

On the 24-hour chart, the pair fell to a correction level of 100.0% - 1.1553. The fall of quotes of the pair from the Fibo level of 100.0% will allow traders to expect a turn in favor of the European currency and some growth in the direction of the correction level of 76.4% - 1.1789. Brewing divergences today can not be seen in any indicator. The consolidation of the exchange rate under the correction level of 100.0% will increase the chances of continuing the fall towards the next Fibo level of 127.2% - 1.1285.

The Fibo grid is built on extremes from November 7, 2017 and February 16, 2018.

Recommendations for traders:

New purchases of the EUR / USD currency pair will be possible with the target of 1.1675 with a Stop Loss order below the Fibo level of 61.8% if the pair completes the closing above the correction level of 1.1605.

Sales of the EUR / USD currency pair can now be implemented with the target of 1.1546 if the pair retreats from the Fibo level of 61.8%, with a Stop Loss order above 1.1605.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

GBP / USD. 4th of September. Results of the day. Carney remains the head of the Bank of England

4-hour timeframe

ubPZ8BtlbHLxG7TbnYi83M16jp_1Ha_MnmACzYs3

Amplitude of the last 5 days (high-low): 70p - 188p - 58p - 84p - 79p.

The average amplitude for the last 5 days: 96p (94p).

The British pound continues to fall against the US currency. The price has overcome the first support level of 1.2843, and at the moment, there is not one sign of the beginning of the upward correction. There is also no new data on Brexit. On the topic of the trade war, nothing new came from the White House either. And yet, the pound sterling continues to decline. Simply because there is no reason for its growth. Today, on September 4, it became known that the head of the Bank of England, Mark Carney, extends the term of his powers until the Brexit process is completed. The manager of the Central Bank in the UK is usually chosen for 8 years. Carney has been in this position since 2013, and has repeatedly stated his desire to resign after 5 years. However, in such a difficult period for the UK economy, the Canadian still decided not to leave and continue the government. Quite optimistic news for Britain. All her optimism, however, in the absence of negative. If Carney also decided to leave in the middle of the Brexit procedure, then it would be another blow to the United Kingdom. We will remind that David Davis and Boris Johnson have already left their posts. He is negotiating with the EU now with his own hands Theresa May. And Britain itself was overwhelmed by the political crisis. But in itself this news has not had a favorable effect on the pound sterling. Thus, in the near future is expected to further decline in the British currency.

Trading recommendations:

The currency pair GBP / USD continues to move down. Thus, today and tomorrow morning, it is recommended to stay in short positions with a target of 1.2738. The signal to manually close the shorts will be a turn up the MACD indicator.

The buy-positions can be considered as minimum lots, if an upward correction begins, as indicated by the MACD indicator. The goal for long positions in this case will be the level of 1.2929.

In addition to the technical picture, one should also take into account the fundamental data and the time of their release.

Explanations to the illustration:

Ichimoku Indicator:

Tenkan-sen is a red line.

Kijun-sen is the blue line.

Senkou Span A is a light brown dotted line.

Senkou Span B - a light purple dotted line.

Chinkou Span is a green line.

Bollinger Bands Indicator:

3 yellow lines.

MACD indicator:

Red line and histogram with white bars in the indicator window.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

NZD/USD short-term technical levels and trading recommendations for September 5, 2018

analytics5b8fa9543f04e.png

The NZD/USD pair has been down-trending for the past few days. This bearish movement has been demonstrated within the depicted linear regression channels.

During Today's consolidations, lack of enough bearish momentum was demonstrated on the chart. The NZD/USD demonstrated a false bearish breakout below the midline of the depicted movement channels. Evident bullish recovery was demonstrated around 0.6530 few times so far.

The short-term outlook turns to be bullish. Bullish breakout above 0.6560 (the upper limit of the channels) is needed to gather sufficient bullish momentum. Expected bullish targets are projected towards 0.6580 and 0.6600.

Hence, bearish positions are not preferred in the current situation. Intraday key-resistance is located around 0.6560. Intraday key-support is located around 0.6530.

For conservative traders, a valid BUY position can be indicated when a bullish breakout above 0.6560 is achieved. T/P level should be located around 0.6600 and 0.6650.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

EUR / USD. 4th of September. Results of the day. Not a single factor in favor of strengthening the Euro-currency

4-hour timeframe

NwfKmHFtGtB-mKSjN5eQC3n2gSl8rSJNAQY3cCSq

Amplitude of the last 5 days (high-low): 71p - 58p - 76p - 105p - 39p.

The average for the last 5 days: 70p (82p).

The currency pair EUR / USD continued its downward movement on the second trading day of the week. As we have recently written, in recent times, almost the only weighty factor that speaks in favor of the euro, technical correction after a prolonged dollar growth is leveled. At the moment, we already have a "dead cross" and excellent prospects for a new long decline in the pair. The fundamental reasons remain the same. Firstly, this is the absence of any decisions between Trump and all countries against which trade taxes have been introduced. Since there are no indulgences of the conflict, the US dollar does not need to become cheaper either. Recall, as before, the most traders in the trade war so far unambiguously in favor of the United States. Secondly, all macroeconomic indicators are also on the side of the States. In the EU, by the end of the year, the quantitative incentive program. And the key is the rate that will remain at a record low, at least until the summer of 2019. And if Trump again begins to exert pressure on the EU example, Turkey), then the period of the ultra-soft monetary policy in the EU may be extended. In general, there is still nothing to cover for the euro, and even technical factors are not on the side of the euro. Of the macroeconomic reports, there is really nothing to highlight today, since the EU, this calendar was absolutely empty, and in the States of today, only the index of business activity in the ISM production sector is planned,

Trading recommendations:

The currency pair EUR / USD continues to move down and worked out the first target of 1.1547. There are no signs of an upward correction, so it is recommended that you stay in short positions with a target level of support of 1.1491.

The buy-positions can be considered small lots with the goal of 1.1624. In a case of starting an upward correction, which can signal the MACD indicator by turning upward. However, with longs, one should be extremely cautious, since a new downward trend has emerged.

In addition to the technical picture, one should also take into account the fundamental data and the time of their release.

Explanations to the illustration:

Ichimoku Indicator:

Tenkan-sen is a red line.

Kijun-sen is the blue line.

Senkou Span A is a light brown dotted line.

Senkou Span B - a light purple dotted line.

Chinkou Span is a green line.

Bollinger Bands Indicator:

3 yellow lines.

MACD indicator:

Red line and histogram with white bars in the indicator window.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

EUR/JPY Approaching Resistance, Prepare For A Reversal

EURJPY is approaching its resistance at 129.67 (61.8% & 100% Fibonacci extension, 50% Fibonacci retracement, horizontal overlap resistance) where it is expected to reverse down to its support at 129.04 (50% Fibonacci retracement).

Stochastic (55, 5, 3) is approaching its resistance at 97% where a corresponding reversal is expected.

EUR/JPY is approaching its resistance where we expect to see a reversal.

Sell below 129.67. Stop loss 129.95. Take profit at 129.04.

analytics5b8fa8d198ef9.png

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

CAD/CHF Testing Support, Prepare For A Bounce

CAD/CHF is approaching its support at 0.7394 (61.8% Fibonacci extension, 76.4% Fibonacci retracement, horizontal swing low support) where price is expected to bounce up to its resistance at 0.7484 (38.2% Fibonacci retracement, horizontal pullback resistance).

Stochastic (89, 5, 3) is testing its support at 2.6% where a corresponding bounce is expected.

CAD/CHF is testing its support where we expect to see a bounce.

Buy above 0.7394. Stop loss at 0.7338. Take profit at 0.7484.

analytics5b8fa884d6f9b.png

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

EUR / USD h1. Variants of traffic development 04_11 September 2018 Analysis of APLs & ZUP

Minuette (h1)

Euro vs US Dollar

Previous review of August 29, 2018 10:29 UTC + 3.

____________________

The further movement of the single European currency EUR / USD in the period of September 4-11, 2018 will depend on the direction of the breakdown of the range:

-> resistance level 1.1600 (control line LTL forks operating scale Micro);

-> support level 1.1565 (the upper limit of the channel is 1/2 Median Line forks operating scale Minuette).

____________________

The outlook for the development of the downward movement (sell)

The breakdown of the support level of 1.1565 -> the continuation of the downward trend and the development of the EUR / USD movement in channel of 1/2 of Median Line Minuette (1.1565 <-> 1.1510 <-> 1.1460) with the prospect of reaching the upper limit of the working-scale fork of ISL38.2 (1.1445) Minuette and the median line Median Line Minuette (1.1375).

See the schedule for details.

____________________

The outlook for the development of the upward movement (buy)

The breakdown of the resistance level of 1.1600 (LTL Micro control line) -> variant of the EUR / USD upward movement to the targets -> SSL Micro start line (1.1635) <-> SSL start line (1.1660) Minuette operation zoom <-> channel 1/2 Median Line Micro (1.1670 <-> 1.1695 <-> 1.1715) <-> maximum 1.1734 <-> lower limit ISL38.2 (1.1745) of the equilibrium zone of the forks of the operating scale Micro

The details are shown in the graph.

____________________

The review is made without taking into account the news background and is not a guide to action (placing orders "sell" or "buy").analytics5b8e5fe94eeaf.jpg

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Wave analysis of GBP / USD for September 4. The pound sterling rushed to the area of 24 figures

analytics5b8e34d7c4a08.png

Analysis of wave counting:

In the course of trading on September 3, the GBP / USD currency pair decreased by another 40 percentage points, which increases the chances for the execution of the variant with the construction of wave 5, and in the downward part of the trend. If this is the case, then the decline in quotations will continue with the first targets, which are near the minimum of August 15. Based on the current wave counting, this mark is unlikely to withstand the onslaught. Accordingly, the potential for the decline in the pair is very high, at least in the region of 24 and 25 figures.

The objectives for the option with purchases:

1.3068 - 50.0% of Fibonacci retracement

1.3164 - 61.8% of Fibonacci retracement

The objectives for the option with sales:

1.2636 - 261.8% of Fibonacci (the oldest Fibonacci grid)

1.2312 - 423.6% of Fibonacci retracement

General conclusions and trading recommendations:

The currency pair GBP / USD has supposedly completed the construction of wave 4. Thus, I recommend selling the pair with the first targets near the estimated level of 1.2636, which is equivalent to 261.8% of Fibonacci. A successful attempt to break through this mark will indicate the pair's readiness for further decline within wave 5 with targets located around 24 and 25 figures (these goals will be further clarified).

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

EUR / USD. 4th of September. The trading system "Regression channels". We expect a new round of decline of the pair

4-hour timeframe

analytics5b8e2a29dfe17.png

Technical data:

The senior channel of linear regression: direction - down.

The younger channel of linear regression: the direction is up.

Moving average (20, smoothed) - down.

СCI: -118.6357

The currency pair EUR / USD on September 3 continued to be below the moving average line, but it was not possible to overcome the level of Murray "6/8". Nevertheless, the prospects for a further decline in the euro are quite good, and the last two blue bars indicate that the decline may continue at today's European trading session. From the euro area, no important and interesting macroeconomic reports were received on the first trading day of the week. Tuesday, September 4, is also empty in terms of news. Mario Draghi has not spoken for a long time, and all the attention of the market is still focused on the States and Donald Trump. Thus, it all comes down to what nextstep Trump will take in trade wars and in relation to whom. However, the US dollar, even without new information from the US leader, can continue to strengthen. Most of the fundamental factors remain on the side of the dollar. Thus, the technical component now also supports the American currency. In the States today will be the index of business activity in the ISM production sector, but it is of little significance.

Nearest support levels:

S1 - 1.1597

S2 - 1.1536

S3 - 1.1475

Nearest resistance levels:

R1 = 1.1658

R2 = 1.1719

R3 = 1.1780

Trading recommendations:

The EUR / USD currency pair may resume its downward movement. The target for short positions now stands at 1.1536, as the indicator of Heikin Ashi turned down. The color of 1-2 bars in the purple color will signal about a new coil of the ascending correction.

The buy-positions are recommended to be opened only after the reverse fixing of the price above the moving with targets of 1.1658 and 1.1719. In this case, the initiative on the instrument will again pass into the hands of bulls.

In addition to the technical picture, one should also take into account the fundamental data and the time of their release.

Explanations for illustrations:

The upper channel of linear regression is the blue lines of unidirectional motion.

The lowest linear regression channel is the violet lines of unidirectional motion.

CCI - the blue line in the indicator window.

Moving average (20; smoothed) - the blue line on the price chart.

Levels of Murray - multi-colored horizontal stripes.

Heikin Ashi is an indicator that color bars in blue or purple.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

The dollar should be bought on a decline

World markets, no matter how tired, are still in captivity situation that revolves around trade wars, which forces investors to show a high degree of caution, and the US dollar to consolidate against major currencies, then going on the offensive, then surrendering positions.

This state of affairs has a strong influence on the largest central banks, which, noting the uncertainty factor produced by the Americans, are constrained in the decisions on monetary policy. We have repeatedly noted that the factor of trade wars is dominant in the world financial markets. The consequences of this phenomenon are not fully understood by anyone, but what is clear is that its tightening is more likely to destroy the world economy, and only then will its new shape be formed. But before this happens, it can go through another global crisis.

The fact that the risks are very high demonstrates the beginning of the deceleration of business activity in the manufacturing sector, the second most powerful in the world economy, the Chinese economy. After the spring of the States announced their desire to introduce, as it seems to them, a more equitable trade relationship with China, the EU, Mexico, Canada. In fact, with the whole world, dangerous trends began to occur. So, the Chinese index of business activity in the manufacturing sector (PMI) turned down and continues to decline confidently. According to the data released on Monday, he approached the dangerous line, to a kind of "Rubicon", to the level of 50 points, showing in August a decrease in growth to 50.6 points from 50.8 points. Recall that the decline of this indicator below 50 points will indicate the beginning of a slowdown in this sector of the economy. And this, most likely, will become a catalyst for other sectors of the economy, which will serve as a signal for its braking.

Against this background, Chinese producers will buy less raw materials, which will undoubtedly hit the economies of countries such as Australia and New Zealand, whose exports are very closely connected with China. This will serve as a catalyst for slowing economic activity in other countries, which can hit the global economy.

The Americans hope that this punishment will pass them, but, it seems to us, this is a delusion. The United States will also suffer. The general decline in business activity in the world can become a prologue to the onset of a new economic recession and the onset of a crisis. Proceeding from this, we believe that in many respects, the artificial growth of US stock indices will stop, demand for the commodity and raw materials will decrease, and protective assets will still be in demand. Given such probable prospects, we believe that the US dollar as a safe-haven will continue to be in demand, so it makes sense to buy it on local declines.

Forecast of the day:

The currency pair EUR / CHF is trading above the level of 1.1235. Deteriorating sentiment in the European market may become a catalyst for continuing the price decline to 1.1125 after its crossing this level.

The currency pair GBP / USD is trading above the level of 1.2850. We consider it possible to sell it if the price falls below this mark with the target of 1.2800.

analytics5b8e1fe83fa7f.png

analytics5b8e1fff1e1de.png

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Technical analysis of USD/CAD for September 05, 2018

analytics5b8f94ae0d1ae.png

Overview:

The USD/CAD pair set above strong support at the level of 1.3135, which coincides with the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level. This support has been rejected for four times confirming uptrend veracity. Hence, major support is seen at the level of 1.3135 because the trend is still showing strength above it.

Accordingly, the pair is still in the uptrend from the area of 1.3135 and 1.3187. The USD/CAD pair is trading in a bullish trend from the last support line of 1.3135 towards the first resistance level at 1.3203 in order to test it.

This is confirmed by the RSI indicator signaling that we are still in the bullish trending market. Now, the pair is likely to begin an ascending movement to the point of 1.3242 and further to the level of 1.3289.

The level of 1.3289 will act as second resistance and the double top is already set at the point of 1.3289. At the same time, if a breakout happens at the support levels of 1.3135 and 1.3088, then this scenario may be invalidated. But in overall, we still prefer the bullish scenario.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

BITCOIN Analysis for September 04, 2018

Bitcoin has been quite impressive and impulsive with the recent bullish momentum which lead the price to reside above the Kumo Cloud resistance as well as $7,200 area with a daily close while also having a Tenkan and Kijun line bullish cross as well. The bullish momentum of the bitcoin is currently quite impulsive and non-volatile for which no deeper pullbacks along the way was observed and it is expected to lead to $8,000-8,500 resistance area with ease in the coming days. As of the current scenario, price remaining over $6,000-6,500 support area with a daily close is expected to incourage a further bullish bias in the market.

SUPPORT: 6000, 6500

RESISTANCE: 7500, 8000, 10000

BIAS: BULLISH

MOMENTUM: NON-VOLATILE

analytics5b8eb26d59464.png

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

NZD/USD Intraday technical levels and trading recommendations for September 5, 2018

analytics5b8f86e930d83.png

In April, bearish breakdown of 0.7220-0.7170 (lower limit of the consolidation range) allowed a quick decline towards 0.6700-0.6800 where narrow ranged consolidation range was established. On July 7, evident bullish rejection pushed the NZD/USD pair above 0.6820 temporarily. However, lack of bullish momentum made the bulls fail to maintain enough bullish momentum above 0.6700. On August 9, bearish breakout below the depicted consolidation range (0.6840-0.6700) was executed. This allowed the recent bearish decline to occur towards 0.6600-0.6570. The NZD/USD pair outlook turned to be bearish. Bearish targets are projected towards the price levels of 0.6520 and 0.6480. Recently, signs of bullish recovery were manifested around the previous weekly/monthly low around 0.6550. This allowed the recent bullish pullback towards 0.6700 to be demonstrated.Evident bearish rejection was demonstrated around 0.6700 (broken demand-zone and backside of the broken-trend) where the current bearish decline was initiated.Currently, the price level of 0.6550 stands as a prominent demand-level before further bearish decline can occur towards 0.6420.

Trade Recommendations: Risky traders can wait for bearish decline below 0.6550 (key-level). This offers a high-risk SELL position. Initial T/P should be placed around 0.6420 (Fibonacci Expansion 100%).

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Intraday technical levels and trading recommendations for EUR/USD for September 5, 2018

analytics5b8f858587d84.png

The price zone of 1.1520-1.1420 stands as a prominent demand zone to be watched for bullish rejection and possible bullish pullbacks.The EUR/USD pair is currently trapped between the depicted technical levels (1.1750 - 1.1500). Breakout movement should be anticipated.Bearish breakdown of 1.1520 will probably allow further bearish decline towards 1.1420. Next bearish target would be located around 1.1275.For the major reversal pattern to be confirmed, a quick bearish breakdown below 1.1420 will be needed to gain enough bearish momentum.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Technical analysis of EUR/USD for September 05, 2018

EUR/USD formed a bullish reversal hammer yesterday in the 4hour chart and bounced off the short-term Fibonacci support around 1.15. The pull back we were expecting has occurred and from 1.15 we can see another leg higher. Short-term trend remains bearish as long as price is below 1.1610.

analytics5b8f800734058.png

Blue lines - bearish channel

EURUSD retraced more than 38% of the rise from 1.13 and nearly reached the 50% retracement. Price is inside a bearish channel. Breaking above this channel will open the way for a challenge of recent highs at 1.17. The 1.17-1.1730 area is the most important level to watch. As long as we do not break this level we are in danger of falling to new lows towards 1.12-1.11. Breaking above this level will open the way for a move towards 1.19-1.20.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Ichimoku cloud indicator analysis of Gold for September 5, 2018

Gold price remains inside the longer-term bearish channel. We had some indications for a bounce towards $1,220-30 but price has broken back below the critical $1,200 level. Last chance for bulls is at $1,180. Holding that level could provide bulls with another opportunity for a higher high towards $1,220. Otherwise a break below $1,180 will open the way for a move towards $1,140-$1,110.

analytics5b8f7eae88a76.png

Blue lines - bearish channel

Short-term resistance is at $1,200 and next at $1,209. Breaking above these levels will open the way for a bigger bounce towards the Daily Kumo (cloud) and the upper channel boundary at $1,220. Support is at $1,180. Breaking it will push price towards the lower channel boundary. Trend remains bearish.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Technical analysis of EUR/USD for September 05, 2018

analytics5b8f7e1b24153.png

Overview:

The EUR/USD pair will continue to rise from the spot of 1.1612/1.1546. The support is found at the levels of 1.1612 and 1.1546, which represents the 50% and 23.6%Fibonacci retracement level in the H1 time frame. The price is likely to form a double bottom. Today, the major support is seen at 1.1612/1.1546, while immediate resistance is seen at 1.1697. Accordingly, the EUR/USD pair is showing signs of strength following a breakout of a high at 1.1697. So, buy at the level of 1.1697 with the first target at 1.1782 in order to test the daily resistance 1 and move further to 1.1865. Also, the level of 1.1865 is a good place to take profit because it will form a new double top. Amid the previous events, the pair is still in an uptrend; for that we expect the EUR/USD pair to climb from 1.1697 to 1.1865 today. At the same time, in case a reversal takes place and the EUR/USD pair breaks through the support level of 1.1546, a further decline to 1.1500 can occur, which would indicate a bearish market.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Trading plan for 05/09/2018

The market sentiment is not doing well, and weaker data from China and fears of trade wars only intensify pessimism. Solid GDP from Australia only served as an opportunity to sell AUD at a better price: AUD jumped after a solid GDP reading from Australia. In the second quarter, the increase was 3.4% (vs. 2.9 % expected), and data for the first quarter improved by 0.1 pp. up to 3.2%. The rest of the main currencies remained in a narrow band of fluctuations. EUR / USD returns at 1.16, USD / JPY is at 111.50.

On Wednesday, the 5th of September, the event calendar is rich in macroeconomic events. During the European session, we will get PMI data for services in European countries, with Great Britain and a collective result for the Eurozone at the forefront. The most important event of the day, however, will be the announcement of the Bank of Canada's decision on interest rates at 02:00 pm GMT and the statement published with it. Moreover, there are two speeches scheduled for today: first is from ECB's Peter Praet and the second from FOMC Member Neel Kashkari.

USD/CAD analysis for 05/09/2018:

Today investors' eyes will be focused on Canada. At 02:00 pm GMT, the Bank of Canada's decision on interest rates will take place. According to market expectations, Poloz and the company will maintain the rate at 1.5%. Since mid-2017, there have been four hikes, so the central bank will probably decide to take a pause again and postpone the decision to hike the rates. After a long period of sluggish growth, the economy is finally doing well enough that it no longer needs unusually low-interest rates - even in the face of trade uncertainty. Governor Stephen Poloz, however, is trying to free Canada from easy money in a way that does not harm the expansion, he wants to first see the effects of each increase.

Let's now take a look at the USD/CAD technical picture at the H4 timeframe before the decision is made. The market has broken through the last swing high at the level of 1.3174 and made a new local high at the level of 1.3207. Currently, the price is testing the support with a local low made at the level of 1.3162. The key support is seen at the level of 1.3113 - 1.3089, which will be a pretty strong support zone to break through again. Please notice the overbought market conditions, which indicate a possible short-term pull-back towards the support before the uptrend resumption.

analytics5b8f750725b79.jpg

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Global macro overview for 05/09/2018

During his yesterday's speech, Mark Carney signaled that he was ready to extend his term of office as the Governor of the Bank of England to guarantee a peaceful Brexit. He announced that he and the chancellor had discussed the issue and that the final decision would be made in due time. He assured, however, that there are many qualified candidates for his position. He also said that the UK Monetary Policy Committee has no forecasts for a possible breakthrough on Brexit. He added that leaving the European Union without a settlement could cause a significant drop in the value of the pound. GBP did not react with a significant move to the speech of the president of BoE.

Let's now take a look at the GBP/USD technical picture at the H4 time frame. The market has broken through the blue trendline support around the level of 1.2935 and made a local low at the level of 1.2828. The low of this down move was made just at the 61% Fibo at the level of 1.2807, so now the bulls might try to take the control over the market again. In order to do this, they have to rally towards the level of 1.2956 first and then toward the local high at the level of 1.3044. Otherwise, the bears will push the price lower towards the next technical support at the level of 1.2723.

analytics5b8f6eff8dd08.jpg

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Global macro overview for 05/09/2018

The Australian Reserve Bank (RBA), in line with expectations, maintained the cash rate at 1.50%, but this did not hinder the positive reaction of AUD. The most important element of the meeting was the message, where there were few changes compared to the previous month. If they have already taken place, they were positive with regard to the low unemployment rate, slight acceleration of wage growth and emphasizing solid economic growth. The bank also pointed out that in the last month the Aussie weakened against the dollar, which can be assessed as a positive phenomenon, although the historically translated into inflation on this account is not significant. What was lacking, and what part of the market was counting on, was a reference to last week's decision of one of the leading commercial banks to increase mortgage rates. Higher market rates mean less pressure on the central bank to tighten monetary policy, but also talk a bit about the risks that the banking sector is afraid of (rising household debt vs. falling real estate prices). For now, however, the RBA prefers to see the glass half full and focus on the positive aspects of the economy, but that does not mean that it will not see any problems in the future. Although today's AUD / USD jump was caused by the closing of short speculative positions by disappointed investors, medium-term prospects remain weak. Real estate market problems and still low wage pressure (and inflation) will bind the central bank hands. In addition, the political environment is unfavorable after the former prime minister Turnbull has filed a mandate, which led the ruling party to lose the majority in the parliament. It remains pessimistic to AUD.

Let's now take a look at the AUD/USD technical picture at the H4 time frame. The blue trend line has capped the bullish run at the level of 0.7215 and currently, the price backed towards the technical support at the level of 0.7200. The market conditions are now oversold, but the momentum remains neutral. The next technical support is seen at the level of 0.7165 and the trend is still down.

analytics5b8f6d2353041.jpg

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Bitcoin analysis for 05/09/2018

Colombia is going to become another country that, like Malta, is a strong leader in Blockchain and virtual currencies. With the development of the cryptocurrency and Blockchain industry, an increasing number of nations began to put emphasis on both sectors. The most important of these is the small island state, Malta, which quickly emerged in the world's forefront when it comes to crypto. Officials have successfully encouraged many of the leading exchanges to establish a seat on the Mediterranean island, while Parliament approved in July three bills to make Malta the first country to establish "legal certainty" for the cryptocurrency field.

The cryptographic craze has also spread in South America. The newly elected president of Colombia, Ivan Duque, has expressed great interest in innovative technologies, and officials across the country seem to be very interested in Blockchain technology and virtual currencies. President Ivan Duque presented some important comments at the ANDICOM conference, which takes place each year in Colombia. According to the local El Tiempo newspaper, President Duque explained that his "obsession" as president would make Colombia a technological leader in the region, and added that the government would appoint a clerk focused on issues related to digital society. He noted that technologies such as Blockchain can be used to overcome corruption by helping to guard public funds. The president also said that companies in the information and communication technology industry will be exempt from taxes for the first five years if they can generate a certain number of jobs. This right would probably apply to companies related to cryptography and Blockchain.

Let's now take a look at the BTC/USD technical picture at the H4 time frame. Another local high was made at the level of $7,376, but it is worth to notice, the momentum is not that strong anymore, so the strength of bulls is slowly weakening. It is possible, that the bears will try to push the prices a little lower, so the corrective cycle might occur. The nearest support is seen at the level of $7,300 and then at the level of $7,176. Please notice, the price is still trading inside of the channel, so the short-term outlook still remains bullish.

analytics5b8f6abbd2a69.jpg

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Global macro overview for 04/09/2018

Punctually at 03.45 pm and 04.00 pm GMT the market participants got informed about the US PMI index showing the activity of the industrial sector in the United States - the first was published by IHS Markit institute, the second one by ISM.

According to the IHS Markit report, the PMI index for the industrial sector amounted to 54.7 in August. This is a slightly better result than the previous reading, which was at 54.5. "Producers have reported the smallest increase in production over the past year, suggesting that production growth may be as weak as the 0.2% reading in the third quarter. Export remains a key source of weakness for producers, foreign orders barely grow in August. The strongest growth is observed in the case of enterprise consumers, which reflects strong domestic demand. For producers of goods, order books are archived at a rate not exceeding ten years. Inflationary pressure is also decreasing" - we can read in the IHS Markit commentary.

In turn, the more important for traders ISM indicator for industry exceeded all investors' expectations. The current reading was 61.3, while the expectations stood at 57.6, and the previous indication was 58.1. It is worth noting that today's reading is the best in almost 40 years!

Let's now take a look at the USD/JPY technical picture at the H4 time frame to see how the market reacted on this news. Generally, the US dollar has strengthened in relation to the Japanese yen on the news of the record-breaking ISM's good for the industry. In the first minute, the dollar gained 10 pips and now fluctuates around the level of 111.40. A positive pivot structure can help further strengthen the dollar. The daily pivot (111.05) is located slightly above the psychological level of 111.00, and the monthly pivot is at 111.01. The nearest level of support is 111.25, slightly lower is the weekly pivot (111.20). On the other hand, the first resistance is seen around 111.63, the next 111.90 and the psychological level 112.00.

analytics5b8eafc04b760.jpg

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

GBP/USD. September 4. Trading system "Regression channels". Speech by Mark Carney - the main event of the day

4-hour timeframe

analytics5b8e2dc992bfb.png

Technical data:

Higher channel of linear regression: direction - down

The lower channel of linear regression.

Moving average (20, smoothed) - down.

CCI: -96.1615

The GBP/USD currency pair resumed the downward movement after a bit of unexpected growth in the area of 1.30. As of this writing, as the news published about Brussels' "unprecedented" proposal, nothing extraordinary and optimistic happened on the pound sterling. It seems that traders realized this after this event, which led to new sales of the British pound. On the first day of the week, the English currency does not have optimistic news, and no news received. But today in the British Parliament, the head of the Bank of England Mark Carney and several members of the monetary committee will have a speech. It is expected that the Brexit issues, its impact on the country's economy and, accordingly, the actions of the regulator will be raised. Also, Carney is unlikely to bypass the question of the central bank's monetary policy since the "deal" with the EU is still not yet accomplish. It should also be noted that Carney has already hinted that in case of a "tough" scenario for the EU exit, the BOE can even soften the monetary policy. And then, we return to the question that was asked when Carney and the central bank decided to raise the key rate. Why it was necessary to do it at that moment, against the backdrop of the failed macroeconomic indicators in the first half of the year, along with the unresolved issues on Brexit and an obvious political crisis in the country? We believe that the Bank of England was very quick with this decision, and it did not help the pound sterling anyway in the confrontation with the dollar.

Nearest support levels:

S1 = 1.2817

S2 - 1.2695

S3 - 1.2573

Nearest resistance levels:

R1 = 1.2939

R2 = 1.3062

R3 = 1.3184

Trading recommendations:

The GBP/USD pair has overcome the trend and continues to move down. The first target for short positions now stands at 1.2817, and if it is overcome, the target will be 1.2695. The signal for manual closing of selling orders will be the reversal of Heiken Ashi to the top.

Long positions can be considered after traversing the traders moving average. In this case, the trend for the instrument will ascend again and the target for the upward movement will be 1.3062.

In addition to the technical picture, one should also take into account the fundamental data and the time of their release.

Explanations for illustrations:

The upper channel of linear regression is the blue lines of unidirectional motion.

The lower channel is linear-violet lines of unidirectional motion.

CCI - the blue line in the regression window of the indicator.

Moving average (20; smoothed) - the blue line on the price chart.

Murray Levels - multi-colored horizontal stripes.

Heiken Ashi is an indicator that color bars in blue or purple.

* The presented market analysis is informative and does not constitute a guide to the transaction.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Elliott wave analysis of EUR/NZD for September 5, 2018

analytics5b8f48a14395d.png

EUR/NZD has broken nicely above the base-channel resistance line. Both confirm that red wave iii is developing and the cross is accelerating higher towards the next target at 1.7820.In the longer-term, we continue to look for much higher levels with the next larger target seen at 1.8369.

Support is now seen at 1.7606, which ideally will be able to protect the downside for the expected continuation higher towards 1.7820.

R3: 1.7820

R2: 1.7750

R1: 1.7714

Pivot: 1.7679

S1: 1.7647

S2: 1.7606

Trading recommendation:

We are long EUR from 1.7330 and we have moved our stop higher to 1.7565. If you are not long EUR yet, buy near 1.7606 and use the same stop at 1.7565.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Elliott wave analysis of EUR/JPY for September 5, 2018

analytics5b8f47294f267.png

There was no time for a bounce back to 129.85 before the final decline towards the 38.2% corrective target at 128.22. EUR/JPY retested short-term important resistance at 129.14 and then dropped off towards the 38.2% corrective target. It did not quite make it to the low of 128.22, but bottomed at 128.30, which is sufficient to complete red wave (2) and set the stage for a new impulsive rally towards 130.87 on the way higher to 131.99 and ultimately above the February peak at 137.50.

Support is now seen at 129.14, which ideally will be able to protect the downside for a break above 129.85 confirming a retest of 130.87 on the way higher.

R3: 130.87

R2: 130.22

R1: 129.85

Pivot: 129.50

S1: 127.14

S2: 128.91

S3: 128.55

Trading recommendation:

We are long EUR from 129.10 and we will move our stop higher to 128.25. If you are not long EUR, buy near support at 129.14 and use the same stop at 128.25.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Technical analysis: Intraday Level For EUR/USD, Sept 05, 2018

analytics5b8f40660b4fc.jpg

When the European market opens, some Economic Data will be released such as Retail Sales m/m, Final Services PMI, German Final Services PMI, French Final Services PMI, Italian Services PMI, and Spanish Services PMI. The US will release the Economic Data too such as Trade Balance, so amid the reports, EUR/USD will move in a low to medium volatility during this day.

TODAY'S TECHNICAL LEVEL: Breakout BUY Level: 1.1644. Strong Resistance:1.1637. Original Resistance: 1.1626. Inner Sell Area: 1.1615. Target Inner Area: 1.1588. Inner Buy Area: 1.1561. Original Support: 1.1550. Strong Support: 1.1539. Breakout SELL Level: 1.1532.

Disclaimer: Trading Forex (foreign exchange) on margin carries a highlevel of risk, and may not be suitable for all Traders or Investors.The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you.Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you should carefullyconsider your investment objectives, level of experience, and riskappetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of someor all of your initial investment and therefore you should not investmoney that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all therisks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice froman independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Technical analysis: Intraday level for USD/JPY, Sept 05, 2018

analytics5b8f3fcf2fe6f.jpg

In Asia, Japan will release the 10-y Bond Auction and the US will release some Economic Data such as Trade Balance. So there is a probability the USD/JPY pair will move with low to medium volatility during this day.

TODAY'S TECHNICAL LEVEL: Resistance. 3: 112.22. Resistance. 2: 112.00. Resistance. 1: 111.78. Support. 1: 111.51. Support. 2: 111.29. Support. 3: 111.07.

Disclaimer: Trading Forex (foreign exchange) on margin carries a highlevel of risk, and may not be suitable for all Traders or Investors.The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you.Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you should carefullyconsider your investment objectives, level of experience, and riskappetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of someor all of your initial investment and therefore you should not investmoney that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all therisks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice froman independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Forecast for AUD/USD as of September 4, 2018

AUD / USD

On Monday, the Australian dollar technically rebounded from the support of the trend line of the price channel and closed the day with an increase of 20 points. This morning, Australia's balance of payments for the second quarter was published. The negative balance increased from -11.7 billion dollars, and revised downwards from -10.5 billion to -13.5 billion dollars. On the data, the "Australian" stalled yesterday's growth. At 5:30 AM (London time), the Reserve Bank of Australia published the statement on monetary policy. As expected, the rate maintained at 1.50% but the RBA's official statement shows that the central bank's regulator Philip Lowe looks suspiciously optimistic. He described economic growth as "expansionist", and the prospects for the labor market was "positive." As the first reaction, the Australian dollar began to rise sharply, but we are cautious in this growth. The forecast of consulting agencies for Australian GDP for the second quarter is 0.8% vs. 1.0% in the 1st quarter, which is expected to be issued tomorrow. Also, the trade balance for July, published on Thursday, is expected to decrease to 1.46 billion dollars from 1.87 billion in June. Growth, even if it continues, has strong resistance to the trend line at 0.7240. Furthermore, we are waiting for the decline of the AUD/USD to the nearest support of the trend line within the price channel to the 0.7076 area. Opening positions is possible after fixing the price at yesterday's low 0.7167.

analytics5b8e0e36b3355.png

analytics5b8e0e463712e.png

* The presented market analysis is informative and does not constitute a guide to the transaction.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Forecast for GBP/USD as of September 4, 2018

GBP / USD

On the first day of the week, the British pound lost 85 points, but a significant part of this declined 36 points at the opening price of the session. Furthermore, the pound had pressed the Manufacturing PMI in August, and fell from 53.8 to 52.8. Price breaks in the foreign exchange market failed to fill gap or and it only close after a few months with strong fundamental factors, but this is not the case, as the market opened and we can see the technicals only upon the closing of pending orders before the weekend. Today, the output of British Construction PMI for August shows 54.9 expectation against 55.8 in July, while the US ISM Manufacturing PMI is projected also to decrease from 58.1 to 57.6, which does not contradict the technical opportunity for a price reversal from the support range 1.2827 / 44, and there is also support for the blue trend line on the daily chart.

analytics5b8e0f17c68f6.png

analytics5b8e0f279f60c.png

On the 4-hour chart, the price was fixed under the blue trend line and the balance line (red indicator), but under the circumstances this could be a false signal. In this case, the graph of the higher timeframe (day-time) signal line shows the Marlin oscillator had an upward reversal from the border of the descending channel, which can be seen on the fourth black candle that has no potential to drop. We are waiting for the closure of the gap, a price increase of at least to 1.2958. The market would likely to remain delicate until US labor data issued on Friday.

* The presented market analysis is informative and does not constitute a guide to the transaction.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

USD/CAD. Loonie weakens on the eve of the meeting of the Bank of Canada

The Canadian dollar continues to lose its position throughout the market amid disappointing news. The deal announced last week between the US and Canada did not take place, although both the US president and the Canadian prime minister expected the conclusion of a new agreement "from day to day". Now, the estimated time frame stretched to the end of the year. Moreover, Donald Trump is ready to exclude Canada from the deal, thereby reducing the NAFTA format to two countries – the US and Mexico.

Unfortunately for the bears of the USD/CAD currency pair, the US-Canada talks did not succeed last week – now the September meeting of the Bank of Canada (which is scheduled for Wednesday) will be held under uncertainty. Traders fear that the regulator will soften its rhetoric and take a cautious stance, although most investors still hope for an interest rate hike in October. Tomorrow's meeting, on the one hand, is a "pass-through", because with 100 percent confidence we can say that no decisions will be made on it. But, on the other hand, the importance of this meeting cannot be overestimated, because the rhetoric of the regulator members will allow us to orient ourselves about the October actions.

If the central bank hints at a continuation of the pause, the Canadian dollar will continue to fall in price, and quite rapidly. Too high traders assessed the chances of a rate hike at the next meeting. A series of positive statistics allowed them to increase the likelihood of such a step: let me remind you that Canadian inflation showed record growth rates (the highest values in the last seven years), and unemployment continued to decline, gradually approaching the level of full employment (the last release was at the level of 5.8%).

analytics5b8e309db1057.jpg

In my opinion, the Bank of Canada will take a very cautious position on Wednesday. Although inflation and the labor market are showing positive dynamics, there are several reasons for some certain alertness – especially when it comes to raising rates. In particular, the latest published data on GDP growth unexpectedly disappointed traders. On a monthly basis, the indicator fell to zero, and in annual terms slowed to 2.4% (compared to 2.7% in may). This is also a cause for concern, as the Canadian regulator is now closely monitoring the impact (or rather, the consequences) of the double rate hike this year.

But the main problem now lies in US-Canadian trade relations. Canada does not want to go about with the United States, especially after the comments of Trump that the new agreement between the countries will be concluded on the terms of Washington – entirely. The president said this phrase unofficially and not in public, but in the presence of journalists who cited his words. According to the American press, this factor was the "last straw" for the Canadian side, after which Canadian Foreign Minister Chrystia Freeland stated that her country does not want to make concessions.concessions.

analytics5b8e30b462390.jpg

According to experts, this is not a matter of some phrases or grievances: the proposed conditions of Americans can create a political problem for the Canadian prime minister, whereas the next elections are expected next year. In addition, we must not forget about the influence of the Canadian lobby, in particular, in the field of dairy products. According to local journalists, milk producers have a great influence in the structure of Canadian politics, so the prime minister is afraid to go with them to confrontation, concluding a disadvantageous (for them) deal with the United States.

Donald Trump, in turn, has repeatedly spoken about unfair tariff conditions, including in the field of "milk". Therefore, it is unlikely that the parties will avoid this issue, and the Canadians will either have to compromise, or expose themselves to the risk of new fees from the US. The US president this weekend again said that he was ready to exclude Canada from NAFTA, but judging by the reaction of the "loonie", Canada is not ready for such a scenario, given the integration into the US economy.

Thus, tomorrow's meeting of the Bank of Canada will be held under the sign of vague prospects for further relations between the main trading partners. The next round of US-Canada talks will take place only at the beginning of winter, so the Canadian regulator will have to choose a strategy for its behavior with this fact in mind. Excessive caution in the rhetoric of the regulator's members will give the USD/CAD an upward impulse, and the pair will head to conquer the price of the highs of August.

analytics5b8e307685068.jpg

Technically, the pair on the weekly chart is between the middle and upper lines of the Bollinger Bands indicator, as well as on the Tenkan-sen line of the Ichimoku Kinko Hyo indicator. This indicates the priority of the upward movement, but here it is necessary to wait for the consolidation of the price within the 31st figure. In this case, the Ichimoku Kinko Hyo indicator will form a bullish "Line Parade" signal, which will allow the pair bulls to go to the main resistance level of 1.3280 (the upper line of the Bollinger Bands on W1).

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Brent inspired by hurricanes

While investors are pondering whether OPEC and Russia will be able to compensate for the decline in Iranian exports, the approach of hurricane Gordon to the coast of the Gulf of Mexico allowed the "bulls" of Brent at arm's length to approach the psychologically important mark of $80 per barrel. The share of this territory accounts for about 17% of production and 45% of processing of all American oil, where it does not get agitated and start curtailing production? However, the impact of hurricanes on pricing in the oil market is often temporary. If a natural disaster is not as devastating as originally anticipated, buyers can begin to lock in profits.

According to information gathered with the help of tankers, oil exports from Iran declined by 14% in August. Competent Wall Street Journal sources inside the country report a decrease from 2.3 million b/d in June to 1.5 million b/d in September. Deliveries of oil from the largest OPEC producer are falling by leaps and bounds, and in fact even before the entry into force of US sanctions in early November is still far. Exports to Europe fell by 45% in July, to South Korea-by 40%, India is considering a 50% reduction in purchases, although along with China and Turkey will continue to receive oil from Tehran. The hole should close the cartel, and Bloomberg experts expect production growth to 420 thousand b/d in August, to 32.74 million b/d. If the actual figure is smaller, "bulls" in Brent and WTI will continue their attacks.

Dynamics of oil production by OPEC

analytics5b8e643f9baf4.png

Despite the fact that Nigeria has tried to rein in speculators, saying that its efforts and the efforts of Saudi Arabia, the UAE and Angola are sufficient enough to compensate for the reduction of Iranian exports, the big banks are reviewing their forecasts upwards. Thus, Barclays believes that the North sea variety under the influence of US sanctions and the decline in production in several producing countries may exceed $80 per barrel in the short term. The average price forecast for 2020 was raised from $55 to $75 per barrel. BNP Paribas doubts that the decline in supplies from Iran, the occasional interruptions in Libya and the decline in production in Venezuela will be offset by an increase in OPEC production. The bank expects to see Brent averaging at $79 per barrel in 2019.

Favorable market conditions can easily be taken advantage of by American manufacturers. According to the US Energy Information Administration, the volume of production in the United States increased from May to June by 230 b/d and at any time could touch on the psychologically important level of 11 million b/d. Alas, the market still ignores this as a "bearish" driver for Brent and WTI, preferring to win back the factors of the hurricane and American sanctions against Iran.

Technically, on the daily chart, Brent achieved a target of 88.6% on the "Shark" pattern, which increases the probability of rollback in the direction of 23.6%, 38.2% and 50% of the CD wave. If the bulls manage to update the September peak and gain a foothold above it, the risks of continuing the upward campaign to the target will increase by 113%.

Brent, daily chart

analytics5b8e644b36351.png

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Intraday technical levels and trading recommendations for EUR/USD for September 4, 2018

analytics5b8ea0ea39d70.png

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com