NZD/USD intraday technical levels and trading recommendations for January 18, 2016

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On December 30, a significant bearish rejection existed around the level of 0.6840 (daily resistance level) similar to what happened previously on October 23.

Moreover, a daily closure below 0.6750 allowed a quick bearish decline to occur initially towards the level of 0.6500, which was broken-down as well.

The depicted chart illustrates a double-top reversal pattern. The depicted support level at 0.6430 should be broken downwards in order to confirm the reversal pattern.

However, traders should note that the level of 0.6430 constitutes the significant support level which corresponds to the backside of the broken downtrend line depicted on the chart.

Hence, a strong bullish rejection and a valid buy entry were expected around the zone of 0.6430-0.6400.

A bullish closure above 0.6490 is mandatory to move the pair towards higher bullish targets.

On the other hand, a bearish daily closure below 0.6400 opens the way towards 0.6250 where multiple previous bottoms were located.

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Intraday technical levels and trading recommendations for GBP/USD for January 18, 2016

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Few months ago, the market was pushed above the weekly key zone around 1.5550 in an attempt to reach the area of 1.5900, which provided significant bearish resistance.

Recent weekly candlesticks came as bearish engulfing candles closing below the level of 1.5220 (the neckline of the Head and Shoulders pattern). This supported the bearish side of the market in the long term.

A quick bearish decline towards the previous weekly level at 1.4950 was expected as a result of the bearish breakdown below 1.5200.

Weekly fixation below 1.4950 opened the way towards 1.4620 which was broken to the downside as well.

Moreover, the previous weekly candlestick closed below the depicted demand level of 1.4620. Hence, a quick bearish decline was executed towards the next demand zone (1.4360-1.4222).

On the other hand, bullish closure above 1.4360 and 1.4610 is mandatory to bring bullish strength into the market again. The first bullish target would be located at 1.4950.

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During 2015, significant bearish rejection was expressed around 1.5770 and 1.5230 where a bearish Head and Shoulders reversal pattern was formed. Since then, the market has been trending downwards within the depicted bearish channel.

The price level of 1.4950 was broken to the downside few weeks ago, constituting a significant supply level. As anticipated, it offered a valid sell entry on December 24.

Daily persistence below 1.4800 (the lower limit of the current bearish channel) allowed a further bearish decline towards 1.4680 and 1.4610 where previous prominent bottoms are located on the GBP/USD daily chart.

Currently, the GBP/USD pair looks oversold as it is being pushed further below the lower limit of the depicted bearish channel. Moreover, the prominent demand levels at 1.4615 and 1.4360 were previously broken to the downside.

That is why signs of bullish rejection around the demand level of 1.4222 should be considered as a valid buy signal.

Trading Recommendation:

Risky traders can have a valid buy entry anywhere around the level of 1.4220. S/L should be located below 1.4150 to minimize our risk.

Initial T/P levels should be located at 1.4360, 1.4440 and 1.4500.

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Intraday technical levels and trading recommendations for EUR/USD for January 18, 2016

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Previously, the EUR/USD pair moved lower after breaking below the major demand levels around 1.2100 and 1.2000 where historical bottoms were previously established back in July 2012 and June 2010.

EUR/USD bears pushed the price slightly below the monthly demand level of 1.0550 (established in January 1997) where bullish recovery was initiated.

April's candlestick came as bullish engulfing one. However, next monthly candlesticks (September, October and November) reflected strong bearish pressure around the level of 1.1450.

A long-term projected target is still seen at 0.9450 if a bearish breakout below the monthly demand level of 1.0570 occurs before the end of this month (January).

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On August 24, the EUR/USD pair looked overbought as the market spiked above the level of 1.1500 (daily supply level).

Shortly after, the intraday supply zone of 1.1360-1.1400 provided significant bearish pressure. An intraday sell entry was suggested. All T/P levels located at 1.1150 and 1.1050 were already reached.

A bearish breakout of the depicted uptrend was performed on October 23. This enhanced a long-term bearish scenario with targets at 1.0800 and 1.0600.

One month ago, daily persistence below the level of 1.0800 and 1.0700 (key levels) ensured enough bearish momentum towards 1.0550 (prominent monthly level) where the recent bullish pullback was initiated towards 1.0800 and 1.1000.

During the last few weeks, the level of 1.1000 was considered a significant supply level to offer a valid sell entry. Moreover, a Head and Shoulders reversal pattern was established around the mentioned supply level.

The previous bearish closure below 1.0800 (the reversal pattern neckline) confirmed the depicted reversal pattern. An estimated bearish target is located at 1.0620.

Today, bearish persistence below 1.0800 (neckline of the depicted reversal pattern) is mandatory to allow more bearish decline to occur towards 1.0730 and 1.0620.

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Technical analysis of EUR/JPY for January 18, 2016

Technical outlook and chart setups:

The EUR/JPY pair has been trading in a range between the levels of 126.75 and 128.75 for the last few sessions. The pair is expected to break above 128.75 and resume its rally towards at least 134.50. Immediate support is seen at 127.00 followed by 126.60 and lower, while resistance is seen at 128.75/129.00. A breakout above 128.75 would accelerate its rally towards higher levels and bulls shall be poised to remain in control until prices stay broadly above 126.60/70. It is hence recommended to remain long now with risk at 126.00. Please note that a push above the levels of 131.00/132.00 would confirm that the pair is headed further north.

Trading recommendations:

Remain long now with stop at 126.00, a target is open.

Good luck!

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Technical analysis of EUR/USD for January 18, 2016

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Overview:

  • The EUR/USD pair is still moving between levels of 1.0804 and 1.0984. These levels correspond to the double bottom and 78.6%% of Fibonacci retracement levels in the H1 chart. The pair has already formed strong resistance at the level of 1.1001 and is currently approaching it for further testing. Therefore, the EUR/USD pair is expected to go downwards following the non-corrective structure indicating the bearish opportunity below the level of 1.0984 (the double top). Sell deals are recommended below 1.0984 with the first target at 1.0871. Thus, the downtrend is likely to continue the bearish movement towards 1.0820. Moreover, it is fateful that the price has probably formed the strong support level at 1.0804 (00% of Fibonacci retracement levels in the H1 chart). The saturation is like to take place around 1.0804. Therefore, it is possible that the market will start showing the signs of a bullish behavior later. In other words, buy deals are recommended above 1.0804 with the first target seen at 1.0901 and further at the level of 1.1000. Also, it should be noted that the key level is set at the weekly pivot point (1.0901).

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Technical analysis of GBP/CHF for January 18, 2015

Technical outlook and chart setups:

The GBP/CHF pair is trading around 1.4360 levels after printing lows at 1.4200 levels last week. The pair is forming a HARAMI candlestick pattern on the daily chart, indicating a potential reversal from current levels. But we need confirmation, so let the pair break above 1.4600 levels before looking to trade again. It is hence recommended to remain flat for now and wait for further confirmation to initiate long positions. Immediate support is seen at 1.4200 levels, while resistance is seen at 1.4600 levels. Please note that the pair has bounced from the Fibonacci 0.786 levels around 1.4200 levels.

Trading recommendations:

Remain flat for now. Looking to go long again.

Good luck!

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Technical analysis of GBP/USD for January 18, 2016

Weekly technical analysis of GBP/USD:

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Overview:

  • According to the previous information, the GBP/USD pair is still moving between 1.4251 and 1.4370. Moreover, it should be noted that the weekly pivot point will set at the level of 1.4370. Right now, the current price is around the level of 1.4290. Additionally, the weekly point has already formed a psychological level at this area. And the weekly resistance 1 is going to set at the level of 1.4490. Therefore, sell at the level of 1.4370 (the weekly pivot point) with the first target at the 1.4251 price (the level of 1.4251 is representing the ratio of 00% Fibonacci retracement levels on the H1 chart), then it will call for downtrend in order to continue its bearish movement towards 1.4137 to form a new double bottom in the same time frame. Notwithstanding, if the trend fails to close below the level of 1.4370, then the stop loss should be placed at the level of 1.4410.
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EUR/NZD analysis for January 18, 2016

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Overview:

Recently, EUR/NZD has been moving downwards. EUR/NZD is in a bearish corrective phase. The price has tested the level of 1.6788 in a volume above the average. In the daily time frame, the price is still above all key MA`s 50SMA,100SMA,150SMA,200SMA. In the H1 time frame, I found that the price has broken the supply trend line and is moving above SMA100, SMA150 and SMA200. A short-term trend is still upward. Selling EUR/NZD at this stage looks risky. Watch for potential buying opportunities on dips. Resistance level is seen at 1.7130.

Fibonacci Pivot Points:

Resistance levels:

R1: 1.7070

R2: 1.7170

R3: 1.7330

Support levels:

S1: 1.6750

S2: 1.6650

S3: 1.6495

Trading recommendations: The short-term trend is still upward. So, watch for potential buying opportunities on dips.

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Global macro overview for 18/01/2016

Global macro overview for 18/01/2016:

Crude oil prices might remain under further pressure with nuclear sanctions on Iran lifted by the US during the last weekend. According to analysts, an additional supply of 500 000 barrels a day will definitely do nothing good for the market which is already oversupplied. Bears remain in complete control as crude closed below the next psychological level of $30 for the first time since December 1, 2003.

From a technical point of view, crude oil bounced from daily support at the level of 28.37, but it is still trading below the long-term channel (dashed lines). The next resistance is seen at the level of 29.89, but the downtrend remains intact.

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Gold : analysis for January 18 , 2016

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Overview:

Since our last analysis, gold has been trading upwards. The price tested the level of $1,097.13. In the daily time frame, we can observe a a weak close of a supply bar (bar closed on the middle) . Buying at this stage looks risky since the price rejected our strong resistance. The intraday trend is neutral. In the H1 time frame, I found a volume spike (buying climax) and a wide spread of bars. Buying at this stage looks very risky. An intraday target is set at the level of $1,071.00. Be careful when buying gold at this stage and watch for potential selling opportunities. The key support is found at the level of $1,046.00. A potential breakout of the level of $1,046.00 will confirm short-term continuation of the downward trend.

Daily Fibonacci pivot points:

Resistance levels:

R1: 1,090.75

R2: 1,091.25

R3: 1,092.00

Support levels:

S1: 1,089.00

S2: 1,088.55

S3: 1,087.70

Trading recommendations: Watch for potential selling opportunities, buying looks risky.

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Global macro overview for 18/01/2016

Global macro overview for 18/01/2016:

The retails sales data from the US that was published last Friday showed a contraction in American shoppers appetites. According to the Commerce Department, retail sales declined 0.1% compared to the previous month to a seasonally adjusted $448.1 billion in December. Moreover, retail sales increased 0.4% and grew 2.1% compared to year earlier, making it the slowest increase in six years. On the other hand, the producer price index declined in December to the level of 0.2%. It fell by - 0.1% with no food and energy prices counted. This is the 11th consecutive decline and it is nowhere near the 2% inflation target projected by the Fed in their monetary policy statement.

The EUR/USD pair bounced from the intraday trend line and is currently trading just above the technical support at the level of 1.0874.

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Technical analysis of CAD/CHF for January 18, 2016

CAD/CHF has been moving clearly downwards since January 5 heading towards lower highs and lower lows. The pair found the support near 0.6970, but under the heavy volume it has been broken on January 15 confirming the ongoing downtrend.

After the support breakout, the Fibonacci retracement indicator applied to the first corrective wave up showed the potential downside target near S2 (0.6775). Then, after moving lower again, the current corrective wave was stopped at the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement applied to a high reached on January 5 and today's low.

Consider selling CAD/CHF while it is trading near R1 (0.6975), targeting the S2 (0.6775) support area. The stop loss should be placed well above the R1 resistance.

Support: 0.6850, 0.6775

Resistance: 0.6945

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Technical analysis of EUR/JPY for January 18, 2016

General overview for 18/01/2016:

A long-lasting and complex corrective cycle is still unfolding in this pair as it trades inside the neutral range between the levels of 127.29 and 129.07. An upside breakout is still expected, but any new local low below the level of 126.78 would immediately invalidate this view and increased the odds for more downside pressure.

Support/Resistance:

126.37 - WS2

126.84 - WS1

126.78 - Technical Support

127.29 - Intraday Support

127.78 - Weekly Pivot

128.29 - WR1

129.07 - Intraday Resistance

129.25 - WR2

129.61 - Wave c Target Projection

Trading recommendations:

Day traders should consider placing buy orders from current market levels with SL below the level of 127.29 and TP at the level of 129.61.

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Technical analysis of USD/CAD for January 18, 2016

General overview for 18/01/2016:

An extension in the fifth wave has gotten rather very mature as the new marginal highs are being reached every day. Nevertheless, momentum is waning with every new higher high and it is quite possible that the top might be in place or the market participants will start to exit their long positions soon. In that case, the ending diagonal pattern will develop around the current levels.

Support/Resistance:

1.4603 - Local High

1.4506 - Intraday Support

1.4415 - Weekly Pivot

1.4419 - WS1

1.4293 - WS2

Trading recommendations:

Day traders should consider placing sell orders from current market levels with SL above the local high at the level of 1.4603 and TP open for now.

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Technical analysis of USD/JPY for January 18, 2016

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USD/JPY is expected to trade in a lower range. Last Friday, the US stocks lost another 2% in a broad-based selloff as oil prices nose-dived. Nymex crude oil plummeted 5.7% to $29.42 a barrel, the lowest level since November 2003. The Dow Jones Industrial Average dropped another 2.4% to 15988, the S&P 500 declined 2.3% to 1876, while the Nasdaq Composite was down 2.7% to 4488.

Gold gained 1.0% to $1088 an ounce, while the benchmark 10-year Treasury yield eased further to 2.035% from 2.100% on Thursday.

Meanwhile, commodity-linked currencies continued to be weighed on by diving oil prices. USD/CAD surged as high as 1.4555, which was last seen only in April 2003, before settling up 1.2% at 1.4538. Also AUD/USD plunged 1.7% to 0.6867. At the same time, GBP/USD lost 1.1% to 1.4254. On the other hand, EUR/USD rose 0.5% to 1.0914 and USD/JPY fell 0.8% to 117.05. The pair traced the lower Bollinger band and sank as low as 116.48 before posting a rebound last Friday. Currently, it is trading around the 20-period (30-minute chart) moving average, which is below the 50-period one. And the intraday relative strength index remains below the neutrality level of 50. If the rebound ends below the key resistance at 117.50, the pair should return to the first downside target at 116.50.

Trading recommendations:

The pair is trading below its pivot point. It is likely to trade in a lower range as long as it remains below the pivot point. Short positions are recommended with the first target at 116.80. A break of that target will move the pair further downwards to 116.50. The pivot point stands at 117.50. In case the price moves in the opposite direction and bounces back from the support level, it will move above its pivot point. It is likely to move further to the upside. According to that scenario, long positions are recommended with the first target at 117.90 and the second target at 118.35.

Resistance levels: 117.90, 118.35, 118.60

Support levels: 116.80, 116.50, 116

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Technical analysis of USD/CHF for January 18, 2016

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USD/CHF is in a process of consolidation and then it is likely to slide. The pair has struck against its falling 50-period moving average, which should continue to push prices lower. The nearest major resistance at 1.0090 maintains the strong selling pressure. Even though a continuation of the consolidations cannot be ruled out at the current stage, its extension should be limited before further decline. As long as 1.0060 holds on the upside, look for a choppy price action with a bearish bias. Our next down target is set at 1.00 and 0.9955 in extension.

Trading recommendations:

The pair is trading below its pivot point. It is likely to trade in a lower range as long as it remains below the pivot point. Short positions are recommended with the first target at 1.00. A break of that target will move the pair further downwards to 0.9955. The pivot point stands at 1.0090. In case the price moves in the opposite direction and bounces back from the support level, it will move above its pivot point. It is likely to move further to the upside. According to that scenario, long positions are recommended with the first target at 1.0140 and the second target at 1.0179.

Resistance levels: 1.0140, 1.0170, 1.0210

Support levels: 1.00, 0.9955, 0.99

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Technical analysis of NZD/USD for January 18, 2016

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NZD/USD is under pressure as Key resistance at 0.6490. The pair remains under pressure below its nearest resistance at 0.6490, and is likely to post a new drop. The 20-period and 50-period moving averages are still on the downside. Besides, the relative strength index is turning down, and has just broken below its neutrality area at 50. Last but not least, the process of lower highs and lows remains intact, therefore, as long as 0.6490 is not surpassed, the risk of the break below 0.6365 (the previous swing low) remains high.

Trading recommendations:

The pair is trading below its pivot point. It is likely to trade in a lower range as long as it remains below the pivot point. Short positions are recommended with the first target at 0.6540. A breakout of that target will move the pair further downwards to 0.6580. The pivot point stands at 0.6490. In case the price moves in the opposite direction and bounces back from the support level, it will move above its pivot point. It is likely to move further to the upside. According to that scenario, long positions are recommended with the first target at 0.6420 and the second target at 0.6365.

Resistance levels: 0.6540, 0.6580, 0.6610

Support levels: 0.6420, 0.6365, 0.6335

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Technical analysis of GBP/JPY for January 18, 2016

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GBP/JPY is expected to trade in a lower range. The pair is reversing down and stays below its key resistance at 168.25. Meanwhile, the relative strength index lacks upward momentum. The first target to the downside is set at the horizontal support and overlap at 166.20. A breakout below this level would open the way to further weakness toward 165.45.

Trading Recommendations:

The pair is trading below its pivot point. It is likely to trade in a lower range as long as it remains below the pivot point. Short positions are recommended with the first target at 166.20. A break of that target will move the pair further downwards to 165.45. The pivot point stands at 168.25. In case the price moves in the opposite direction and bounces back from the support level, it will move above its pivot point. It is likely to move further to the upside. According to that scenario, long positions are recommended with the first target at 169 and the second target at 169.85.

Resistance levels: 169, 169.85, 170.45

Support levels: 166.20, 165.45, 165

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Technical analysis of EUR/USD for Januari 18, 2016

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When the European market opens, some economic news on the Italian Trade Balance is due to be released. The US will not publish any economic data for today. So amid the reports, EUR/USD will move with low to medium volatility during this day.

TODAY'S TECHNICAL LEVEL:

Breakout BUY Level: 1.0964.

Strong Resistance:1.0958.

Original Resistance: 1.0947.

Inner Sell Area: 1.0936.

Target Inner Area: 1.0911.

Inner Buy Area: 1.0886.

Original Support: 1.0875.

Strong Support: 1.0864.

Breakout SELL Level: 1.0858.

Disclaimer: Trading Forex (foreign exchange) on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.

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Technical analysis of USD/JPY for Januari 18, 2016

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In Asia, Japan will release data on the Tertiary Industry Activity m/m and Revised Industrial Production m/m, but the US will not release any economic data for today. So, there is a strong probability the USD/JPY pair will move with low to medium volatility during this day.

TODAY'S TECHNICAL LEVEL:

Resistance. 3: 117.81.

Resistance. 2: 117.58.

Resistance. 1: 117.35.

Support. 1: 117.07.

Support. 2: 116.84.

Support. 3: 116.61.

Disclaimer: Trading Forex (foreign exchange) on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.

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Daily analysis of major pairs for January 18, 2016

EUR/USD: The condition affecting the EUR/USD is quite similar to the condition affecting the USD/CHF pair. So, these two pairs must be closely watched. Just like the latter, the bias on the former is also neutral in the near term.

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USD/CHF: The bias on this pair is neutral in the near-term because the pair has not made any strong directional movement in recent times. There are short-term upswings and downswings in the market, but a predictable directional movement is anticipated this week or next week, which would most probably favor bears.

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GBP/USD: The GBP/USD pair is one of the strongest trending currency trading instruments among the majors. The bias on the instrument is bearish and it is possible that the price would continue going downwards, reaching the accumulation territories of 1.4200 and 1.4150 this week. This bias would be valid until there is a bullish reversal of at least 300 pips.

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USD/JPY: USD/JPY moved sideways in the most part of last week, though the price went further downwards on Friday, emphasizing the extant bearish outlook on the market (just as the case is on most other JPY pairs). It is likely that the price would continue trending further downwards this week, reaching the demand levels at 116.00 and 115.50.

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EUR/JPY: In contrast to what happened two weeks ago, this cross simply moved sideways last week. There would soon be a breakout this week or next week, which would be determined by the conditions affecting the EUR. So, it is rational to say that movement on the EUR/JPY cross would be determined by whatever happens to the EUR, and as a result, we may see a movement which is contrary to what other JPY pairs.

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Daily analysis of USDX for January 18, 2016

The USDX is still showing some declines resisting in some way to advance in the bullish bias, which is presented on an overall basis. However, the index remains trading above the support level of 98.79 and the 200 SMA in the H1 chart. So, this outlook cannot be fully discarded yet as the USDX could test the resistance level of 99.22 in order to do another rally towards the level of 99.49.

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H1 chart's resistance levels: 99.22 / 99.49

H1 chart's support levels: 98.79 / 98.39

Trading recommendations for today: Based on the H1 chart, place buy (long) orders only if the US dollar index breaks with a bullish candlestick; the resistance level is seen at 99.22, take profit is at 99.49, and stop loss is at 98.94.

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Daily analysis of GBP/USD for January 18, 2016

On the H1 chart, GBP/USD is still working so well in our bearish outlook presented several articles ago, as the pair is trying to extend its decline towards the support zone of 1.4198. A breakout below there will expose the pair to test the level of 1.4080. The current structure is calling for more declines, but the MACD indicator starts to show oversold conditions.

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H1 chart's resistance levels: 1.4309 / 1.4373

H1 chart's support levels: 1.4198 / 1.4080

Trading recommendations for today: Based on the H1 chart, place sell (short) orders only if the GBP/USD pair breaks a bearish candlestick; the support level is seen at 1.4198, take profit is at 1.4080, and stop loss is at 1.4309.

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Elliott wave analysis of EUR/NZD for January 18, 2016

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Wave summary:

We have seen an expected breakout above the base channel resistance line near 1.6750, which now should act as support for upside acceleration towards 1.7205 and 1.7641.

In the longer term, we continue to look for even more upside pressure towards 1.8020 as the next important long-term resistance.

Trading recommendation:

We are long EUR from 1.5810 and will move our stop higher to 1.6640. If you are not long EUR yet, then buy near 1.6750 and place your stop at 1.6640.

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Elliott wave analysis of EUR/JPY for January 18, 2016

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Wave summary:

The triangle continues to unfold as we expected. In the short term, we should see support at 127.28 protecting the downside for another small rally towards 128.50 before the thrust downside takes us lower to 126.05 and 125.45.

In the long term, I would be looking for even more downside pressure towards 123.57 and the next major downside target.

Trading recommendation:

We are short EUR from 130.95 with stop placed at 129.50. If you are not short yet, then sell near 128.50 or upon a break below support at 127.28 and place your stop order at 129.50.

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