Indicator analysis. Daily review for June 4, 2019 for the GBP / USD currency pair

Trend analysis (Fig. 2).

On Tuesday, we are waiting for the continuation of the upward movement with the first target of 1.2705 - a pullback level of 23.6% (yellow dotted line).

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Fig. 2 (daily schedule).

Comprehensive analysis:

- indicator analysis - up;

- Fibonacci levels - up;

- volumes - up;

- candlestick analysis - up;

- trend analysis - up;

- Bollinger lines - up;

- weekly schedule - up.

General conclusion:

On Tuesday, we are waiting for the continuation of the upward movement with the first target of 1.2705 - a pullback level of 23.6% (yellow dotted line).

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GBP/USD: plan for the European session on June 4. The pound is approaching an important resistance of 1.2697

To open long positions on GBP/USD, you need:

Yesterday, buyers of the pound held above the important support level of 1.2623, which bears tried to break through throughout the day. This allowed us to keep the upward correction, which is now aimed at the resistance of 1.2697, a breakthrough above will provide GBP/USD return to a maximum of 1.2744, where I recommend fixing the profit. In the scenario of a pound decline in the first half of the day, only the formation of a false breakout in the support area of 1.2656 will allow buyers to return to the market. In another scenario, it is best to open long positions on the rebound from the minimum of 1.2611.

To open short positions on GBP/USD, you need:

Sellers of the pound will count on the formation of a false breakout in the resistance area of 1.2697, which will be the first signal to open short positions in order to reduce to the support of 1.2656. However, the main task of the bears is to consolidate under the level of 1.2656, which will lead to the demolition of a number of stop orders of buyers and a larger decrease in GBP/USD in the area of the minimum of 1.2611, where I recommend fixing the profits. In a growth scenario above 1.2697, the resistance range of 1.2744 will be an acceptable area for short positions.

Indicator signals:

Moving Averages

Trading is above 30 and 50 moving averages, indicating an upward correction in the pound.

Bollinger Bands

The average border of the indicator in the area of 1.2656 keeps the pound from a new wave of falling. In the GBP/USD growth scenario, short positions can be considered to rebound from the upper limit in the area of 1.2697.

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Description of indicators

  • MA (moving average) 50 days – yellow
  • MA (moving average) 30 days – green
  • MACD: fast EMA 12, slow EMA 26, SMA 9
  • Bollinger Bands 20
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EUR/USD: plan for the European session on 4 June. Euro purchases may be limited by the level of 1.1261 and the divergence

To open long positions on EURUSD, you need:

Yesterday, euro buyers reached the resistance of 1.1261 after statements about a possible decrease in interest rates in the US, but a breakdown of this range is necessary for continued growth. Divergence formed in the MACD indicator can prevent the buyers to continue the growth in the first half of the day. Therefore, the whole calculation is on good inflation data in the eurozone, which will provide a breakthrough of 1.1261 and exit to the highs of 1.1294 and 1.1336, where I recommend fixing the profits. With a decrease in EUR/USD, support will be provided by the area of 1.1230, from which it is best to open long positions if a false breakout is formed. I recommend to buy for a rebound from a minimum of 1.1199.

To open short positions on EURUSD, you need:

Sellers of the euro will count on the divergence, which is formed on the MACD indicator, so an unsuccessful breakthrough and a return to the level of 1.12261 will be the first signal for the opening of short positions of the euro, the purpose of which will be the support of 1.1230, where I recommend fixing the profit. However, it is worth remembering that weak inflation in the eurozone can help push the pair to a minimum of 1.11199. In the scenario of further growth in the trend above 1.1261, you can look at short positions from the resistance of 1.1294 or a rebound from the maximum of 1.1336.

Indicator signals:

Moving Averages

Trading is conducted above 30 and 50 moving averages, which indicates the bullish nature of the market.

Bollinger Bands

In the event of a decline in the euro, support will be provided by the average indicator border in the area of 1.1230, while it can be sold after the unsuccessful breakdown of the upper indicator border in the area of 1.1285.

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Description of indicators

  • MA (moving average) 50 days – yellow
  • MA (moving average) 30 days – green
  • MACD: fast EMA 12, slow EMA 26, SMA 9
  • Bollinger Bands 20
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Indicator analysis. Daily review for June 4, 2019 for the EUR / USD currency pair

Trend analysis (Fig. 1).

On Tuesday, the price may continue to move up with the first goal of 1.1285 - the pullback level of 38.2% (blue dotted line), wherein the historical resistance level of 1.1291 (blue dotted line) is also found. Thus, it will be difficult for the price to overcome this area for the first time. But, the upward trend will continue.

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Fig. 1 (daily schedule).

Comprehensive analysis:

- indicator analysis - up;

- Fibonacci levels - up;

- volumes - up;

- candlestick analysis - up;

- trend analysis - up;

- Bollinger lines - up;

- weekly schedule - up.

General conclusion:

On Tuesday, the price may continue to move up with the first goal of 1.1285 - the pullback level of 38.2% (blue dotted line), wherein the historical resistance level of 1.1291 (blue dotted line) is also found. Thus, it will be difficult for the price to overcome this area for the first time. But, the upward trend will continue.

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Trading plan for EUR/USD for June 04, 2019

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Technical outlook:

The EUR/USD pair has managed to reach its resistance zone as defined between 1.1250/60 levels here. A high probable trade setup from here should be lower. Those who initiated short positions yesterday, keeping stops above 1.1220 levels could prepare to re-enter short positions today and the risk remains above next in line resistance at 1.1320 levels respectively. If bulls manage to break above 1.1260 levels consistently, we might re-consider our trading direction of selling on rallies. On the other side, if consolidation continues further, we could see a bearish reversal around these levels, dragging prices lower below 1.1100 levels going further. In the latter case, the overall wave structure remains bearish, and we can expect a break below 1.1100 levels soon. Even if this is not a consolidation, prices are expected to drop at least to 1.1180 levels, which is backside of the resistance trend line and which is support now.

Trading plan:

Remain short with a stop above 1.1324, target below 1.1100

Good luck!

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Burning forecast EURUSD 06/04/2019

A strong upward movement on EURUSD - a breakthrough of the level of 1.1220 and the closing of the day above - a strong signal for continued growth.

We keep purchasing from 1.1990 and from 1.1220 - purchases are possible when rolling back to the average.

EURUSD: There is a signal for the upward trend.

We are ready to buy the euro from 1.1220

We are also ready to sell the euro from 1.1105

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Forecast for EUR / USD pair on June 4, 2019

EUR / USD pair

Investors did not even have time to decide how serious Trump's intentions are regarding tariffs for Mexican goods and how they could affect the US economy. Also on how the markets suffered another blow as the head of the FRB of St. Louis, James Bullard, said that the rate could be lowered "soon". At the same time, the indicator of business activity in the manufacturing sector in May (ISM Manufacturing PMI) came out with deterioration at 52.1 against 52.8 in April. The construction costs for April showed a zero change against the forecast of 0.5% and the euro grew by 72 points, reaching the line of the price channel on the daily chart.

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However, the rapid price increase from a technical standpoint increases the likelihood of an asset reversal. The Marlin oscillator gives the first signs of a reversal on the daily and H4 charts. Of course, such signs may portend only a correction, for example, to the Fibonacci level of 100.0% at 1.1216 in order to continue growth with new forces. Fixing the price above 1.1253 may extend the current movement to the next target at the April 17 maximum at 1.1324. The probabilities of the three approximate scenarios are as follows: completion of growth and reversal (25%), continued growth after correction (40%), and continued growth (35%).

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Technical analysis of EUR/USD for 04.06.2019

Technical Market Overview:

The EUR/USD has strongly moved up, breaking all the technical support levels on its way. The local high was made at the level of 1.1261, just below the key technical resistance zone located between the levels of 1.1264 - 1.1274. Any breakout through this zone will change the temporary outlook from bearish to bullish. Please notice, that despite such a big move up the pair is still trading inside of the consolidation zone and the key technical resistance zone must be clearly and impulsively violated to continue the move up.

Weekly Pivot Points:

WR3 - 1.1310

WR2 - 1.1261

WR1 - 1.1211

Weekly Pivot - 1.1159

WS1 - 1.1114

WS2 - 1.1061

WS3 - 1.1012

Trading Recommendations:

The best strategy in the current market conditions is to trade in the overbought and oversold market conditions as long as the price is moving inside of the consolidation zone. Any breakout in either direction (the larger time frame trend is down) will eventually give the direction for the short-term trend move and this is when the strategy for a breakout will be applicable.

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Forecast for GBP / USD pair on June 4, 2019

GBP / USD pair

Under pressure from the general weakening of the dollar (-0.53%), the sterling pound on Monday added 34 points. Convergence on the daily chart is developing, the price has risen above the resistance level of 1.2660 at least last August. The goal of growth is the line of resistance at 1.2756 on the daily channel price chart.

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On the four-hour chart, the price fixed above the balance line (red indicator) and MACD line (blue indicator). Also, the price made a test of the MACD line yesterday after preliminary output above it, which is a sign of further growth. The Marlin oscillator signal line is in the growth zone. We are waiting for the price at the designated target of 1.2756.

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Elliott wave analysis of GBP/JPY for June 4 - 2019

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We are still awaiting a final dip closer to the 135.94 target where wave 2 will have corrected 70.7% of wave 1. The decline from 148.87 is followed by positive divergence indicating that a bottom soon may be in place.

From near 135.94 or upon a direct break above minor resistance at 137.48 we expect wave 3 to take over for a new rally that ultimately will take GBP/JPY back above 148.87.

R3: 138.74

R2: 137.79

R1: 137.48

Pivot: 137.12

S1: 137.01

S2: 136.63

S3: 136.25

Trading recommendation:

We will buy GBP at 136,15 or upon a break above 137.48.

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Elliott wave analysis of EUR/JPY for May 4 - 2019

analytics5cf5ee0c1da6f.png

The EUR/JPY pair dipped to a low of 120.75 yesterday and turned higher from there. The break above minor resistance at 121.49 is the first solid evidence, that wave ii has completed at 120.75 and wave iii to above 127.50 now is in motion. To confirm that wave ii has completed and wave iii is developing, we still need to see a break above resistance at 122.26, but the odds are now in favor of that scenario.

Only an unexpected break back below 120.75, will call for more downside pressure, but the potential downside should be limited from here.

R3: 122.326

R2: 121.75

R1: 121.64

Pivot: 121.28

S1: 120.75

S2: 120.68

S3: 120.33

Trading recommendation:

We bought EUR at 120.75 and we have placed our stop at 120.50.

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Control zones GBPUSD 04.06.19

Further growth of the pair is an excellent opportunity to hold a long position, open after the WCZ 1/2 test 1.2562-1.2543. Some purchases can be closed, the rest of the transfer to breakeven. It is important to note that the next growth target will be WCZ 1/2 1.2769-1.2750 in case the pair can consolidate above the level of 1.2663.

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The upward movement is also confirmed by the fact that the two-day growth exceeds the decline of the previous days in strength, which allows us to determine the pattern of absorption at a high level.

To cancel the upward movement, it will be necessary to stop the growth at the current level and absorb yesterday's growth. The closing of the American session should occur below the opening of the current week. If this happens, then a return to the May minimum will be the first goal in the path of continuing the medium-term fall.

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Daily CZ - daily control zone. The area formed by important data from the futures market, which changes several times a year.

Weekly CZ - weekly control zone. The zone formed by important marks of the futures market, which changes several times a year.

Monthly CZ - monthly control zone. The zone, which is a reflection of the average volatility over the past year.

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Forecast for USD / JPY pair on June 4, 2019

USD/JPY pair

Amid the fears that hit the markets on Friday and Monday, the USD/JPY pair lost more than 160 points these days and almost reached our target at least to January 10 level at 107.78. At the moment, there are signs of the formation of price convergence with the Marlin oscillator simultaneously on two graphs of daily and H4. In the case of the departure of the price under 107.78, these signs of convergence will be transformed into an ordinary correction of the indicator and the price will go towards the next target at 107.12. But at the moment, these patterns can signal the termination of panic in the market. The indicators on both graphs are in a depressed state, which indicates a complex long and uneven anticipated recovery of the pair. Even if the price grows to 109.25 on the MACD line on the four-hour scale and the graphic line on the daily scale, the price will still be in a general downward trend. Only the output of the pair above the indicated resistances will allow us to return to the consideration of scenarios for further growth.

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Control zones NZDUSD 04.06.19

The closing of yesterday's US session occurred above the WCZ 1/2 0.6555-0.6548, which means that priority has been changed to ascending. To continue growth, you may need a corrective decline than you need to use to enter purchases. It is important to note that the target weekly control zone 0.6632-0.6618 is within the daily average move and intersects with the weekly average move. This suggests the need for 100% closure of purchases when it is reached.

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It does not make sense to consider the downward reversal movement, as this would require the absorption of yesterday's growth, which exceeded the daily average range. The probability of this event is below 30%, which makes it impossible to search for sales from current grades.

Sales will be possible if the test weekly short circuit, which is the goal of the upward movement, will result in a large offer. This will also allow you to observe the formation of the absorption pattern, which will enable you to enter a short position, which will eventually be a correction.

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Daily CZ - daily control zone. The area formed by important data from the futures market, which change several times a year.

Weekly CZ - weekly control zone. The zone formed by important marks of the futures market, which change several times a year.

Monthly CZ - monthly control zone. The zone, which is a reflection of the average volatility over the past year.

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Technical analysis of GBP/USD for 04.06.2019

Technical Market Overview:

The GBP/USD pair has bounced after the Bullish Engulfing candlestick pattern was made, which might indicate a stronger bounce this time. The momentum is now positive and quite strong and the market conditions are not yet overbought. Nevertheless, to move higher, the bulls will have to break through the technical resistance located at the levels of 1.2647 and 1.2683 before the price will hit the main technical resistance level of 1.2755.

Weekly Pivot Points:

WR3 - 1.2903

WR2 - 1.2819

WR1 - 1.2711

Weekly Pivot - 1.2636

WS1 - 1.2534

WS2 - 1.2447

WS3 - 1.2331

Trading Recommendations:

The best strategy in the current market conditions is to trade in the direction of the main trend, which is still down. All the local bounces and correction should be treated as another opportunity to open the sell orders for a better price. Please notice, the larger time frame trend is down and there are no signs of any trend reversal.

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Technical analysis of Bitcoin for 04.06.2019

Crypto Industry News:

The Japan House of Representatives officially approved a new bill to amend national laws regulating the cryptographic industry.

The draft law - prepared by the Japanese Financial Services Agency (FSA) and approved by the House in mid-March this year - was adopted by a majority of votes at the plenary session of the Chamber of Councilors, in accordance with the current update of the FSA on the official website.

The project is aimed at introducing changes to two national laws regarding cryptographic assets - the act on the settlement of funds and the law on financial instruments and exchange. Now that the bill has been adopted, the amended acts are expected to enter into force in April 2020.

The proposed changes to Japanese financial instruments and payment services will ostentatiously tighten the regulation of cryptocurrencies to promote user protection, more stringent regulation of trading in cryptographic instruments, mitigate industry risks, such as stock market busts, and the broad establishment of a more transparent legal framework for new asset classes.

According to earlier reports, the bill also introduces a legal change in the name of cryptocurrencies as "cryptographic assets", previously marked in the country as "virtual currencies". The draft also provides for stricter rules regarding trading in margins, limiting the leverage to double and four times the initial deposit.

Technical Market Overview:

The BTC/USD pair has made another wave to the downside as anticipated. This wave is a part of the wave 4 correction and so far reached the level of $7,739 after all the technical supports were violated. The next target for bulls is seen at the level of $7,484. This corrective cycle might evolve into an ABCDE Triangle pattern as well, so please keep an eye on the further developments.

Weekly Pivot Points:

WR3 - $10,284

WR2 - $9,622

WR1 - $9,121

Weekly Pivot - $8.545

WS1 - $8,037

WS2 - $7,438

WS3 - $6,960

Trading Recommendations:

The best strategy in the current market conditions is to trade in the direction of the main trend, which is still up. All the local bounces and correction should be treated as another opportunity to open the buy orders for a better price. Please notice, the larger time frame trend is up and there are no signs of any trend reversal.

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Technical analysis of Ethereum for 04.06.2019

Crypto Industry News:

Chainalysis, an American intelligence company, claims that 64% of ransomware attack strategies are money laundering through cryptocurrency exchanges. The data was revealed during the Chainalysis webinar.

The ransomware attack includes a malware infection target and a ransom demand - often referred to in cryptocurrencies. Payment is required in exchange for allegedly providing a decryption tool that can help victims regain access to their data.

Chainalysis - which provides blockchain analytics tools that enable companies, governments, and law enforcement agencies to monitor blockchain transactions and track suspicious illegal activities - claims that 64% of ransomware attackers use them to launder dishonest funds through cryptocurrency exchanges.

Chainalysis allegedly identified 38 exchanges - without disclosing their names - which directly received funds from the address associated with the ransomware attack.

Among other analyzed ransomware attacks strategies, 12% were involved in mixing services and 6% in peer-to-peer networks, while others went through commercial service providers or dark Internet markets. 9% of revenues from ransomware are reportedly unleased.

The analysis also showed that ransomware attacks usually involve fewer complex networks compared to cryptographic exchange hooks. Chainalysis argued that this is because the hack often involves a large amount of money leaving the well-known stock exchange, often attracting high media popularity and requiring hackers to hide better the flow of funds.

Ransomware campaigns, on the other hand, usually include smaller discreet sums for multiple addresses and are allegedly less publicized, thus avoiding intensive immediate control.

Technical Market Overview:

The ETH/USD pair has moved lower as anticipated to continue the wave C of the correction. The spike down has violated the technical support at the level of $239.03 and made a new low at the level of $234.96. This move down is still a part of the wave 4 which is a corrective cycle. It might terminate around the level of $228.89 and then it will be labeled as three waves correction ABC or it can continue to evolve into an ABCDE Triangle pattern.

Weekly Pivot Points:

WR3 - $337.31

WR2 - $312.54

WR1 - $290.33

Weekly Pivot - $263.28

WS1 - $241.64

WS2 - $214.59

WS3 - $190.10

Trading Recommendations:

The best strategy in the current market conditions is to trade in the direction of the main trend, which is still up. All the local bounces and correction should be treated as another opportunity to open the buy orders for a better price. Please notice, the larger time frame trend is up and there are no signs of any trend reversal.

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Fractal analysis of major currency pairs for June 4

Forecast for June 4:

Analytical review of H1-scale currency pairs:

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For the euro / dollar pair, the key levels on the H1 scale are: 1.1310, 1.1282, 1.1266, 1.1238, 1.1225, 1.1204 and 1.1182. Here, we are following the development of the ascending cycle of May 30. Short-term upward movement is expected in the corridor 1.1266 - 1.1282. The breakdown of the last value will lead to movement to the potential target - 1.1310. From this level we expect a rollback to the bottom.

Short-term downward movement is possible in the corridor 1.1238 - 1.1225. The breakdown of the last value will lead to a prolonged correction. Here, the goal is 1.1204. This level is a key support for the top. Its price will have the formation of the initial conditions for the downward trend, in this case, the potential goal is - 1.1182.

The main trend is the ascending cycle of May 30.

Trading recommendations:

Buy 1.1266 Take profit: 1.1280

Buy 1.1284 Take profit: 1.1310

Sell: 1.1224 Take profit: 1.1206

Sell: 1.1202 Take profit: 1.1182

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For the pound / dollar pair, the key levels on the H1 scale are: 1.2754, 1.2727, 1.2692, 1.2676, 1.2645, 1.2629, 1.2605 and 1.2558. Here, the price forms a pronounced potential for the upward cycle of May 31. Continuing the development of an upward trend is expected after the price passes the noise range 1.2676 - 1.2692. In this case, the target is 1.2727. Consolidation is near this level. For the potential value to the top, we consider the level of 1.2754, upon reaching which, we expect a rollback.

Short-term downward movement is possible in the corridor 1.2645 - 1.2629. The breakdown of the latter value will lead to a prolonged correction. Here, the target is 1.2605. This level is a key support for the upward structure.

The main trend is the formation of the upward potential of May 31.

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 1.2692 Take profit: 1.2722

Buy: 1.2728 Take profit: 1.2752

Sell: 1.2645 Take profit: 1.2630

Sell: 1.2627 Take profit: 1.2607

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For the dollar / franc pair, the key levels on the H1 scale are: 1.0000, 0.9970, 0.9946, 0.9933, 0.9916, 0.9897 and 0.9876. Here, we are following the development of the downward structure of May 30. Short-term downward movement is expected in the range of 0.9916 - 0.9897. The breakdown of the last value will lead to movement to the potential target - 0.9876. From this level, we expect a rollback to the top.

Short-term ascending movement is possible in the corridor 0.9933 - 0.9946. Breaking the last value will lead to a prolonged correction. Here, the target is 0.9970. This level is a key support for the downward structure of May 30. Its price passage will have to form the initial conditions for the upward cycle. In this case, the potential target is 1.0000.

The main trend is the downward cycle of May 30.

Trading recommendations:

Buy : 0.9933 Take profit: 0.9945

Buy : 0.9948 Take profit: 0.9970

Sell: 0.9915 Take profit: 0.9898

Sell: 0.9895 Take profit: 0.9878

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For the dollar / yen pair, the key levels on the H1 scale are : 108.84, 108.43, 108.18, 107.76, 107.44 and 106.99. Here, we continue to monitor the downward structure of May 30. Short-term downward movement is expected in the corridor 107.76 - 107.44. The breakdown of the last value will lead to the movement to the potential target - 106.99. And upon reaching this level, we expect a rollback to the top.

Short-term upward movement is possible in the corridor 108.18 - 108.43. The breakdown of the latter value will lead to in-depth correction. Here, the goal is 108.84. This level is a key support for the downward cycle.

The main trend is the local structure for the bottom of May 30.

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 108.18 Take profit: 108.41

Buy: 108.45 Take profit: 108.82

Sell: 107.75 Take profit: 107.45

Sell: 107.42 Take profit: 107.00

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For the Canadian dollar / US dollar pair, the key levels on the H1 scale are: 1.3495, 1.3471, 1.3454, 1.3432, 1.3414, 1.3386 and 1.3369. Here, we are following the development of the downward structure of May 31. Short-term downward movement is expected in the corridor 1.3432 - 1.3414. The breakdown of the last value should be accompanied by a pronounced downward movement. Here, the target is 1.3386. For a potential value for the bottom, we consider the level of 1.3369. After reaching which, we expect consolidation, as well as a rollback to the top.

Short-term upward movement is possible in the corridor 1.3454 - 1.3471. The breakdown of the latter value will lead to a prolonged correction. Here, the target is 1.3495. This level is a key support for the bottom.

The main trend is the downward structure of May 31.

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 1.3454 Take profit: 1.3470

Buy : 1.3472 Take profit: 1.3495

Sell: 1.3432 Take profit: 1.3416

Sell: 1.3413 Take profit: 1.3388

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For the Australian dollar / US dollar pair, the key levels on the H1 scale are : 0.7042, 0.7013, 0.6994, 0.6983, 0.6955, 0.6941, 0.6919 and 0.6910. Here, we are following the ascending structure of May 23. Short-term upward movement is expected in the corridor of 0.6983 - 0.6994. The breakdown of the latter value will lead to the movement to the level of 0.7013. Consolidation is near this level. For a potential value to the top, we consider the level of 0.7042. From this level, we expect a departure to a correction.

Short-term downward movement is possible in the range of 0.6955 - 0.6941. The breakdown of the latter value will lead to a prolonged movement. Here, the target is 0.6919. The range 0.6919 - 0.6910 is a key support for the ascending structure.

The main trend is the ascending structure of May 23.

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 0.6995 Take profit: 0.7013

Buy: 0.7015 Take profit: 0.7040

Sell : 0.6955 Take profit : 0.6942

Sell: 0.6939 Take profit: 0.6920

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For the euro / yen pair, the key levels on the H1 scale are: 122.31, 121.98, 121.71, 121.20, 121.01, 120.56 and 119.98. Here, the price forms the potential for the upward movement of June 3 in the correction of the downward structure. The breakdown of the level 121.71 will lead to the formation of pronounced initial conditions to the top. Here, the goal is 121.98. The breakdown of this level will lead to the development of an upward trend. In this case, the potential target is 122.31.

Short-term downward movement is expected in the corridor 121.20 - 121.01. The breakdown of the last value will cancel the ascending structure from June 3. In this case, we expect movement to the level of 120.56. We consider the level 119.98 to be a potential value for the bottom. We expect a rollback to the top from this level.

The main trend is the mid-term downward structure of May 21, the stage of correction.

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 121.71 Take profit: 121.96

Buy: 122.00 Take profit: 122.30

Sell: 121.20 Take profit: 121.03

Sell: 120.98 Take profit: 120.58

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For the pound / yen pair, the key levels on the H1 scale are : 138.39, 137.83, 137.49, 136.52, 135.98, 135.48 and 134.82. Here, we continue the development of the downward trend of May 21 after the breakdown of 136.50. In this case, the target is 135.98. The breakdown of which, in turn, will allow us to expect a movement to the level of 135.48. Consolidation is near this value, and hence the probability of a turn into a correction . For the potential value to the bottom, we consider the level of 134.82.

Short-term upward movement is expected in the corridor 137.49 - 137.83. The breakdown of the last value will lead to a prolonged correction. Here, the target is 138.39. The range is 138.39 - 138.76 noise.

The main trend is a local downward structure of May 21.

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 136.50 Take profit: 136.00

Buy: 135.94 Take profit: 135.50

Sell: 137.46 Take profit: 136.90

Sell: 135.44 Take profit: 134.84

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

GBP/USD approaching resistance, potential drop!

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Price is approaching our first resistance level where we might see a corresponding drop.

Entry : 1.2747

Why it's good : Horizontal swing high resistance, 23.6% Fibonacci retracement, 61.8% Fibonacci extension

Stop Loss : 1.2872

Why it's good : Horizontal pullback resistance, 38.2% Fibonacci retracement

Take Profit : 1.2578

Why it's good : 78.6% Fibonacci retracement, horizontal swing low support

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AUD/USD approaching resistance, potential reversal!

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Price reversed off from its resistance where it is expected to fall further to its support. We are expected some AUD weakness later today due to a possible RBA rate cut.

Entry : 75.42

Why it's good : 38.2% Fibonacci retracement, 100% & 61.8% Fibonacci extension, horizontal pullback resistance

Stop Loss : 75.72

Why it's good : 61.8% Fibonacci retracement

Take Profit : 74.98

Why it's good : Horizontal swing low support

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The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

EUR/JPY reversed off key resistance, a drop is possible!

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EURJPY reversed off key resistance, a drop to first support is possible

Entry: 121.64

Why it's good : 61.8% Fibonacci extension, 23.6% Fibonacci retracement, horizontal pullback resistance

Stop Loss : 122.24

Why it's good :50% Fibonacci retracement, horizontal overlap resistance

Take Profit : 120.75

Why it's good: 76.4% Fibonacci retracement, 61.8% Fibonacci extension, horizontal swing low support

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The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

The Swiss franc has updated its two-year maximum against the Euro

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The Swiss franc rose to its highest level in the last two years against the euro. The position of US President Donald Trump with respect to China prompted investors to switch to safe currencies, while the Swiss Central Bank may not yield to pressure and will not start selling francs for the euro. Trading tensions caught all investors' attention after Trump raised Chinese import tariffs, threatened to raise Mexican tariffs and canceled preferential trade regime for India. These actions force investors to dump risky assets and switch to low-yielding currencies, such as the yen and the franc, which causes them to rise in value.

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In relation to the euro, the franc rose by more than half a percent - to 1.1120 francs per euro, which is the highest level since July 2017. Taking into account the May jump, when the franc rose by more than 2% against the euro, the franc shows excellent results. The Swiss national bank, which uses negative interest rates and currency intervention, traditionally intervened when the franc rose to about 1.10 francs per euro. However, low inflation and trade tensions indicate that the franc will go much higher than current levels. The franc was not the only low-yielding currency that could rise in price even more, the Japanese yen also rose significantly and, apparently, the exchange rate would rise.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

EUR / USD: The dollar is preparing to reduce the rate of the Fed, the euro in anticipation of inflation data

The US currency is under strong pressure from a negative fundamental background. The dollar index tested an annual maximum in the region of 98 points on Friday. But today, it is just as confidently heading towards the base of the 97th figure. To some extent, the weakness of the greenback is reflected in the dynamics of all dollar pairs, including EUR/USD. Buyers "starve out" take the 12th figure, although each item is given to them with great difficulty. Nevertheless, bulls of the pair were able to push the price away from the key support level of 1.1105, protecting themselves from falling into the area of the 10th figure.

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By and large, the price of the pair returns to the usual "flat" range of 1.1210-1.1340, within which it has fluctuated throughout most of May. On the other hand, the market is now too wound up and subject to strong price fluctuations. Therefore, eur / usd is unlikely to hang in the specified corridor. The events of Tuesday in this context will play an important role: first, we will learn data on the growth of European inflation, and secondly, we will listen to Fed Chairman Jerome Powell, who will speak at the economic conference organized by the Chicago Fed.

It is worth noting that at the end of last week, the dollar was falling due to general panic in the market. The protracted trade conflict with China, the new duties on Mexico, and now, the White House's claims on India make American investors nervous. For the first time in a long time, the dollar was not used by the market as a defensive asset: the dynamics of the debt market dragged greenback behind them, reducing the attractiveness of the American currency.

Today, the concern of traders has become more "tangible" form. The market has been actively discussed rumors that the Fed will reduce the interest rate in the near future. The probability of a rate cut at the July meeting increased to 55%, whereas a week ago it was no more than 15-18%. Moreover, some analysts are confident that the Fed will not stop at what has been achieved, and will return to this issue again by the end of the year. By some estimates, this scenario is implemented with a probability of 70%. Today's macroeconomic reports, which came from the USA, also added fuel to the fire. In particular, the production ISM fell to a mark of 52.1 points - this is the weakest indicator growth rate since October 2016 (according to forecasts, it should have risen to 53 points). Here, it is worth considering that it does not take into account the fact of the introduction of duties on imports from Mexico. Thus, the figure may show a weaker trend next month, unless Mexico City and Washington come to a compromise.

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However, the conflict with Mexico in this case plays a secondary role: the focus of attention is the trade war with China, which is heating up with a new force. In particular, the Chinese authorities are now conducting an investigation into the largest US postal company in the world, FedEx. The initiator of the investigation was the notorious Huawei, which accused Americans of violating the rules of the industry. Chinese journalists have learned the essence of the claims: FedEx allegedly sent two parcels of important commercial documents from Japan to Shanghai through the United States. Similar actions by the American postmen were allegedly taken in respect of two more shipments from Vietnam to Huawei offices in Hong Kong and Singapore. If the official Beijing confirms Huawei charges, the largest postal company in the world will get to the People's Republic of China on the "black list" of unreliable organizations. This incident once again confirms the fact that the trade war is still gaining momentum, and the parties are far from constructive dialogue. The situations with Huawei and FedEx only complement the overall fundamental picture, while the strongest steps on the part of China (in particular, in restricting or banning the export of rare earth metals) are still ahead.

Thus, the US trade conflicts are now "played with new colors" in the eyes of investors: an increase in geopolitical tensions is associated with an increase in the likelihood of the Fed lowering interest rates. And if Jerome Powell on Tuesday at least indirectly confirms such intentions, the dollar will strengthen its fall.

But the single currency on Tuesday may receive support from European inflation. According to the general forecast, the consumer price index in the eurozone in May will weaken to 1.4% (from the previous value of 1.7%). Core inflation should also show a negative trend, returning to the 1% mark after rising in April to 1.3%. But, according to a number of currency strategists, inflation may still be a surprise, being better than pessimistic expectations. At the same time, they refer to the dynamics of the oil market (in April) and consumer activity in the key countries of the eurozone. If inflation data turns out to be in the "green zone" tomorrow, the euro will receive substantial support, especially in contrast to American problems.

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In terms of technology, bulls of the EUR/USD pair need to overcome at least the mark of 1.1240 (the upper line of the Bollinger Bands indicator on the daily chart, which is in the Kumo cloud) to confirm the strength of the northern movement. When overcoming the mark of 1.1280 (the upper boundary of the Kumo cloud on the same timeframe), the Ichimoku trend indicator will form a bull signal "Parade of lines", opening the way to the area of the 13th figure. It is not yet advisable to speak of further heights, given the impulsive growth pattern of the EUR/USD.

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