Technical analysis of USD/JPY for April 19, 2018

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Our first target which we predicted in the previous analysis has been hit. USD/JPY is expected to trade in higher range. The pair is posting a new upleg while striking against the upper Bollinger band. Strong upward momentum is evidenced by the relative strength index, which is well directed in the 60s. It is on track to revisit 107.40 (around the high of yesterday, April 18). Above that level, it could target 107.60 on the upside. Key support is located at 107.05.

Chart Explanation: The black line shows the pivot point. The present price above the pivot point indicates a bullish position, and the price below the pivot point indicates a short position. The red lines show the support levels, and the green line indicates the resistance levels. These levels can be used to enter and exit trades.

Strategy: BUY, stop loss at 107.15, take profit at 107.60.

Resistance levels: 107.60, 107.80, and 108.15

Support levels: 106.85, 106.65, and 106.35.

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Technical analysis of USD/CHF for April 19, 2018

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USD/CHF is expected to trade with a bullish outlook. The pair made a rebound from 0.9650 (the low of April 18) and broke above its 20-period moving and 50-period moving averages. Besides, the rising 50-period moving average should push the prices higher. The relative strength index is above its neutrality level at 50. Hence, as long as 0.9650 is not broken, look for a further upside with targets at 0.9720 and 0.9750 in extension.

Chart Explanation: The black line shows the pivot point. The present price above the pivot point indicates a bullish position, and the price below the pivot point indicates a short position. The red lines show the support levels, and the green line indicates the resistance levels. These levels can be used to enter and exit trades.

Strategy: BUY, stop loss at 0.9650, take profit at 0.9720.

Resistance levels: 0.9720, 0.9750, and 0.9790

Support levels: 0.9630, 0.9605, and 0.9560.

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Technical analysis of GBP/JPY for April 19, 2018

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GBP/JPY is expected to trade with a bullish outlook. The pair broke above its upper boundary of Bollinger Bands, indicating the potential of upward acceleration. The rising 50-period moving average maintains the bullish bias. The relative strength index is heading upward, calling for a new upleg. To sum up, above 152.20, look a further advance with targets at 153.15 and 153.60 in extension.

Chart Explanation: The black line shows the pivot point. Currently, the price is above the pivot point which is a signal for long positions. If it remains below the pivot point, it will indicate short positions. The red lines show the support levels, while the green line indicates the resistance levels. These levels can be used to enter and exit trades.

Resistance levels: 153.15, 153.60, and 154.15

Support levels: 151.75, 151.15, and 150.80.

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Technical analysis of NZD/USD for April 19, 2018

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First downside target which we predicted in our previous analysis have been hit. NZD/USD is expected to trade with bearish outlook. The pair retreated after failing to challenge the key resistance at 0.7345, which should maintain the selling pressure. The relative strength index is mixed to bearish. As long as 0.7345 is not surpassed, look for a return to 0.7280. A break below this level would trigger a new drop to 0.7255.

Chart Explanation: The black line shows the pivot point. Currently, the price is above the pivot point, which is a signal for long positions. If it remains below the pivot point, it will indicate short positions. The red lines show the support levels, while the green line indicates the resistance levels. These levels can be used to enter and exit trades.

Resistance levels: 0.7370, 0.7385, and 0.7425

Support levels: 0.7280, 0.7255, and 0.7215.

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Daily analysis of EUR/JPY for April 19, 2018

EUR/JPY

The EUR/JPY is kind of consolidating in the context of an uptrend. The supply zone at 133.00 has been tested and it would be tested again. The targets at the supply zones at 133.00, 133.50, and 134.00, remain valid, and they may be breached. They may even be exceeded as the price journeys further upwards this week.

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There is a Bullish Confirmation Pattern in the market, which would become more and more serious as the price goes northwards. The EMA 11 is above the EMA 56, and the RSI period 14 is above the level 50. The price action also reveals that bulls are intent on pushing the price further upwards.

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Daily analysis of USD/JPY for April 19, 2018

USD/JPY

This pair is now in a stable mode. The situation has not changed, but when it does, a directional movement may start, which would propel price above the supply level at 108.00. When this does happen, it would most probably favor bulls, but it would need to breach the supply level at 107.50 first.

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Most likely, price would be able to go above the supply level at 108.00; even reaching other supply levels at 108.50 and 109.00. There are no much fundamental figures coming out today, but a rise in momentum can happen anytime.

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Daily analysis of USD/CHF for April 19, 2018

USD/CHF

The resistance level at 0.9700 has been tested several times, but the market has not been able to breach it to the upside. About 110 pips have been gained so far this week, and there is much room for it to go further upwards. The resistance lines at 0.9700, 0.9750 and 0.9800 may be breached later this week.

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The situation in the market remains upbeat. There is a Bullish Confirmation Pattern in the 4-hour chart and the Williams' % Range period 20 is around the overbought territory. The EMA 11 is above the EMA 56.

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Global macro overview for 19/04/2018

The British pound does not have an easy week so far, because the data from the labor market did not meet high expectations, and yesterday CPI inflation clearly disappointed the global investors. The basis for the demand for GBP is the assumption that while reducing the risk of "hard Brexit" and solid data, the Bank of England will decide to raise the interest rate in May. There is still the possibility, that the reports from this week do not cross out this scenario. Yesterday's disappointment is largely due to unfavorable weather conditions, which mixed up in the sale of spring collections, as well as changes in the government schedule of increases in the excise tax on cigarettes. Undoubtedly, these are one-off cases that BoE will not take into account. In addition, the rate of remuneration was above inflation (2.8% vs. 2.5%), which means that real wage is positive for the first time since January 2017, which the central bank will receive positively.

On the other hand, today's Retail Sales data clearly disappointed the global investors. The consensus was set to fall by 0.6 percent, so the market was already set to a weak reading, but the data published were even lower than this, at the level of -1.2%. The growth of sales before Easter did not help, as the statistical office cleans up data on their impact. Admittedly, there's little doubt that the seemingly endless episodes of snow and bad weather in March will have played a major role. That saw sales of goods from household goods to clothing fall during March, as many shopping centers/retail outlets remained closed completely during the spells of adverse weather.

In the wider perspective, for the pound, the prospects for monetary tightening are important, and the valuation of the May increase by the money market remains high at the level of 85%. The question is what is needed for the markets to change its mind regarding the BoE interest rate hike because the worse than expected data are not seriously taken into the account yet.

Let's now take a look at the GBP/USD technical picture at the H4 time frame. We can see clear five waves from the swing high at the level of 1.4379, with the low at 50% Fibo at 1.4170. Thre is an immediate bullish market response from this level and now the intraday technical resistance at 1.4233 is being tested. The next technical resistance is seen at the level of 1.4247 and 1.4279. The next downside target for the price is seen at 61% Fibo at 1.4120.

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NZD/USD Intraday technical levels and trading recommendations for April 19, 2018

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In November 2017, evident signs of bullish recovery were expressed around the depicted low (0.6780). An inverted Head and Shoulders pattern was expressed around these price levels.

The price zone of 0.7140-0.7250 (prominent Supply-Zone) failed to pause the ongoing bullish momentum. Instead, a bullish breakout above 0.7250 was expressed on January 11.

That's why, a quick bullish movement was expected towards the depicted supply zone (0.7320-0.7390) where evident bearish rejection and a valid SELL entry were expected.

On February 2, a bearish engulfing daily candlestick was expressed off the price level of 0.7390.

Moreover, a double-top reversal pattern followed by another lower High was expressed around the price zone (0.7320-0.7390), where a valid SELL entry was offered as expected.

In general, the NZD/USD pair remains trapped between the price levels of 0.7200 and 0.7350 until bearish breakdown of 0.7200 occurs.

The price zone of 0.7320-0.7390 remains a significant supply zone to offer a valid SELL entry during the current bullish pullback. Bullish breakout above 0.7450 invalidates this bearish scenario.

On the other hand, bearish breakdown of 0.7200 (neckline) is needed to confirm the depicted reversal pattern. Bearish projection target would be located around 0.7050 and 0.7000.

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Global macro overview for 19/04/2018

The Bank of Canada maintained in the statement that it intends to remain cautious with regard to future adjustments of monetary policy, taking into account the incoming data. This cautious approach is perceived as slightly dovish, as more satisfaction was expected from the weakening of risks around negotiations on the Nafta agreement, hence the USD/CAD jump above 1.26.

In the Monetary Policy Report, a large part was devoted to growth prospects with less focus on inflation. For example, the bank no longer expects a positive contribution of exports to GDP (0 percent against earlier forecasts of 0.6%). So this part has a bit dove overtones because it gives the field a less aggressive tightened in the following months. On the other hand, the increased GDP forecasts smuggle some optimism about the economic outlook for the future. The fact that BoC remains in the cycle of increases, confirms leaving the sentence in the statement that "over time higher interest rates will be justified".

To sum up, for today BoC is disappointing with high expectations, but in the medium term, the bank should be on its way to a hike in July. From the CAD point of view, the profit from the rally from 1.31 has now a dominant influence on the course, but when the dust falls CAD still remains the currency with good prospects for the rest of the year.

Let's now take a look at the USD/CAD technical picture at the H4 time frame. The market has broken above the technical resistance at the level of 1.2620 and made a new, local marginal high at the level of 1.2657. Currently, the price is testing the support from above, but the outlook is still bullish. If the market will continue to bounce, then the next target might be at the level of 1.2730. The positive and strong momentum after the breakout is suporting the short-term bullish outlook.

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Intraday technical levels and trading recommendations for EUR/USD for April 19, 2018

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Daily Outlook

The EUR/USD pair remains trapped between the price levels of 1.2200 and 1.2500 until breakout occurs in either directions.

Daily persistence above 1.2470-1.2500 was needed to confirm a recent bullish flag continuation pattern with projected targets around the price level of 1.2750.

However, significant signs of bearish reversal were manifested around the price levels of 1.2400.This was manifested in the bearish engulfing daily candlestick of March 28.

The EUR/USD pair remains bullish as long as the depicted uptrend remains intact. The upper limit of the depicted consolidation range around 1.2500 is the nearest supply level to be tested. Bullish breakout above 1.2500 enhances this bullish scenario.

On the other hand, the depicted Multiple-Top pattern needs bearish breakdown of the level of 1.2200 to be achieved on a daily basis. Bearish Projection target would be located around 1.2070-1.1990 (Low probability at the current time).

Trade Recommendation:

Conservative traders should wait for bullish breakout above 1.2500. Bullish targets will probably present around the price levels of 1.2750.

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BITCOIN Analysis for April 19, 2018

Bitcoin has been consolidating above $8,000 price area for a while. The price is being supported by the dynamic levels of 20 EMA, Tenkan and Kijun line respectively to push further upwards. The slower momentum of the bulls is currently raising questions on the reliability of the bullish trend it has formed recently. The price is expected to gain impulsive momentum after it clears above $8,500 price area with a daily close targeting towards $10,000 in future. The lack of fundamentals and market participants in the market account for the slow and steady price action in Bitcoin. As for the currents scenario, the bulls are still sustaining prior gains and expected to push much higher in the coming days as the price remains above $7,000. The Kumo Cloud has broadened its edge from Span A to Span B which also explains the reliable support. The price has to support its bullish pressure. As the price remains above $7,000 area, the bullish bias is expected to continue further.

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Fundamental Analysis of AUD/USD for April 19, 2018

AUD/USD has been quite corrective and volatile after breaking above the 0.7750 price area with a daily close recently. Today was an important day for AUD as Employment reports was published which turned out to be a let-down for the currency to sustain its bullish pressure. Today, AUD Employment Change report was published with an increase to 4.9k from previous figure of -6.3k which failed to meet the expectation of 20.3k and Unemployment Rate was published unchanged, as expected, at 5.5%. Moreover, NAB Quarterly Business Confidence report was published unchanged at 7. AUD, having certain economic reports, resulted to more struggle to continue its impulsive bullish pressure. On the other hand, the market sentiment has been quite against USD as of the recent rate hikes and worse economic reports results. This week, USD managed to provide slight better than expected economic reports like Building Permits with an increase to 1.35M from the previous figure of 1.32M and Housing Starts with an increase to 1.32M from the previous figure of 1.30M. As of the current scenario, USD is expected to gain momentum over AUD which is expected to struggle to sustain the bullish pressure due to worse Employment reports, published today. Though the pair is still expected to quite volatile and corrective in nature while the bears pushing the price lower.

Now let us look at the technical view. The price has formed a Bearish Regular Divergence along the way which has recently showed bearish impulsive pressure and expected to push the price lower towards the 0.7700-50 support area in the coming days. As the price remains below 0.78 with a daily close, further bearish pressure is expected in this pair.

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Fundamental Analysis of EUR/GBP for April 19, 2018

EUR/GBP is currently residing inside the corrective resistance zone between 0.87 to 0.8750 area whereas the bearish trend is quite intact as well. EUR has been the dominant currency in the pair for last few days inside the impulsive bearish trend in progress as GBP was struggling for gains amid mixed economic reports recently. Today, the eureozone's Current Account report was published with a better-than-expected figure of 35.1B decreasing from the previous figure of 39.0B which was expected to decrease to 32.3B. On the other hand, today the UK Retail Sales report was published with a decrease to -1.2% from the previous value of 0.8% which was expected to be at -0.5%. Today, MPC official Cunliffe is due to speak later today. His speech is expected to be quite neutral about the UK key interest rate and monetary policy. As for the current scenario, the market is quite volatile amid alternating impulsive bullish and bearish pressure. This provides no definite trend pressure on either side. GBP has been affected by worse economic reports, thus pushing the price lower. This indicates strength of EUR which is expected to continue further in the coming days. To sum up, EUR is expected to have an upper hand over GBP, so the pair is set to continue its bearish trend further.

Now let us look at the technical view. The price has recently rejecting off the dynamic level of 20 EMA in the non-volatile bearish trend which is expected to push the price much lower towards 0.84 support area in the coming days. The retracement towards the dynamic level is an indication of more bears entering the market to input more impulsive bearish pressure in the coming days. As the price remains below 0.8750 area, the bearish bias is expected to continue further.

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Bitcoin analysis for April 19, 2018

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The Bitcoin (BTC) has been trading sideways at the price of $8.118. Most US states have adopted some regulatory stance in regards to cryptocurrencies like bitcoin and the blockchain technologies behind them, according to a report by the Brookings Institution. The study classifies jurisdictions according to their attitude towards digital currencies and the levels of engagement with the underlying technology. The tTechnical picture of Bitcoin looks bullish.

Trading recommendations:

According to the H4 time - frame, I found bullish breakout of falling wedge and flat base in the background, which is a sign that buyers are in control. I also found a head and shoulders failure pattern, which is another sign of strength. My advice is to watch for potential buying opportunities. The upward target is set at the price of $8.875.

Support/Resistance

$8.206 – Intraday resistance

$8.055– Intraday support

$8.875 – Objective target

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Technical analysis of NZD/USD for April 19, 2018

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Overview:

The trend is still moving around the spot of 0.7294 which represents a major support today. The bias remains bullish in the nearest term testing 0.9736 or higher. The NZD/USD pair is still continuing to move upwards from the level of 0.7294 and 0.7436 in the long term. The level of 0.7294 represents the daily pivot point in the H4 time frame. The pair rose from the level of 0.7294 to a top around 0.7375. Right now, the price is moving around the level of 0.7375. Besides, it should be noted that the resistances levels are lies in 0.7375 and 0.7436, while daily support 1 is seen at 0.7294 (50% Fibonacci retracement). According to the previous events, the NZD/USD pair is still moving between the levels of 0.7294 and 0.743. Furthermore, if the trend is able to break out through the first resistance level at 0.7375, we should see the pair climbing towards the double top (0.7436) to test it. Therefore, buy above the level of 0.7300 with the first target at 0.7375 in order to test the daily resistance 1 and further to 0.7436. Also, it might be noted that the level of 0.7436 is a good place to take profit because it will form a double top. On the other hand, in case a reversal takes place and the NZD/USD pair breaks through the support level of 0.7294, a further decline to 0.7151 can occur which would indicate a bearish market.

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Technical analysis of USD/CHF for April 19, 2018

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Overview:

The USD/CHF pair didn't make significant movement yesterday. There are no changes in my technical outlook. The bias remains bullish in nearest term testing 0.9809 or higher. The USD/CHF pair continues to move upwards from the level of 0.9589. Yesterday, the pair rose from the level of 0.9589 (the level of 0.9589 coincides with a ratio of 78.6% Fibonacci retracement) to a top around 0.9698. Today, the first support level is seen at 0.9589 followed by 0.9503, while daily resistance 1 is seen at 0.9755. According to the previous events, the USD/CHF pair is still moving between the levels of 0.9600 and 0.9755; for that we expect a range of 155 pips (0.9755 - 0.9600). On the one-hour chart, immediate resistance is seen at 0.9698, which coincides with the double top. Currently, the price is moving in a bullish channel. This is confirmed by the RSI indicator signaling that we are still in a bullish trending market. The price is still above the moving average (100) and (50), Therefore, if the trend is able to break out through the first resistance level of 0.9755, we should see the pair climbing towards the weekly resistance at 0.9809 to test it. It would also be wise to consider where to place stop loss; this should be set below the second support of 0.9503.

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Analysis of Silver for April 19, 2018

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Recently, Silver has been trading upwards. The price tested the level of $17.28. According to the Daily time – frame, I found a breakout of horizontal base (50 days), which is a sign that buyers are in control. I also found a strong Relative Strength reading, which is another sign of strength. My advice is to watch for potential buying opportunities. The upward target is set at the price of $17.66

Resistance levels:

R1: $17.39

R2: $17.60

R3: $17.92

Support levels:

S1: $16.85

S2: $16.52

S3: $16.32

Trading recommendations for today: watch for potential buying opportunities.

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GBP/USD analysis for April 19, 2018

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Recently, the GBP/USD pair has been trading downwards. The price tested the level of 1.4160. Anyway, according to the M15 time – frame, I found a fake breakout of yesterday's low at the price of 1.4173 and a potential shakeout after the negative Retails sales, which is a sign that selling looks risky. I also found a hidden bullish divergence on the moving average oscillator in creation, which is another sign of strength. My advice is to watch for potential buying opportunities. The upward targets are set at the price of 1.4243 and at the price of 1.4280.

Resistance levels:

R1: 1.4288

R2: 1.4370

R3: 1.4430

Support levels:

S1: 1.4150

S2: 1.4090

S3: 1.4005

Trading recommendations for today: watch for potential buying opportunities.

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Bitcoin analysis for 19/04/2018

The Vice-President of the Bank of Japan spoke negatively about the impact of digital currencies issued by Central Banks on the current financial system. In his opinion, deputy governor Masayoshi Amamiya said that though the digital currency issued by the Central Bank may have a negative impact on the current financial system, the bank is open in the future to use new economic technologies such as cryptocurrencies. The conference was held jointly with the International Monetary Fund, the Japanese financial services agency and the Japanese bank. "The issue of the Central Bank's digital currency for general use may be analogous to allowing households and businesses to have direct bank accounts with the Central Bank. This can have a major impact on the two-level currency system and the financial intermediation of private banks" - Amamiya says and adds "IT innovations pose many basic questions and challenges related to the currency system, designing the Central Bank's infrastructure and using information related to business operations".

Amamiya came to the conclusion that although the Bank of Japan will no longer spend its own virtual currency, the bank understands that the use of new technologies is always possible for the Central Bank's infrastructure. The Bank of Japan and the European Central Bank are currently working on a joint initiative, called Project Stella, exploring the potential Blockchain opportunities in the field of securities settlements.

Let's now take a look at the Bitcoin technical picture in the H4 time frame. The market is now in wave b cycle of the corrective wave (2)/b, which should end at the level of $7,442. There is a possibility that the wave (2)/b had been completed already at the level of $7,722, but it would have been very short in price and time. The key level to the upside is the recent swing high at the level of $8,355. If broken, then the market will likely rally towards the next technical resistance at the level of $9,134.

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Trading plan for 19/04/2018

The main overnight theme was data from Australia and New Zealand, in both cases weak, although the risk appetite was AUD and NZD. The stock market continues to rise on the wave of good quarterly results and generally positive sentiment. Japanese Nikkei225 grows 0.2% and Chinese Shanghai Composite gains 0.9%. On the commodity market, crude oil improves peaks unseen since the end of 2014 thanks to data on US inventory declines and Saudi Arabia's efforts to maintain high prices by limiting output. WTI is about $ 69.

On Thursday 19th of April, the event calendar is light in important data releases, but the market participants should keep an eye on Retail Sales data from the UK, Philly Fed Manufacturing Index and Unemployment Claims data from the US and ADP Non-Farm Employment Change data from Canada.

AUD/USD analysis for 19/04/2018:

The quarterly CPI reading from New Zealand fell above forecasts at 0.5% q/q vs 0.4% expected. The annual dynamics, as expected, amounted to 1.1%. Despite this, with the inflation target of the NSS, 1-3%, inflation is now close to the bottom band of the channel, which limits the pressure on monetary tightening.

AUD / USD initially lost 25 pips after worse than expected data from the labor market, but quickly rebounded and now tests 0.78. In March employment increased only by 4,900 against a forecast of 20,000 In addition, data for February have been revised down by almost 24,000. The unemployment rate remained at 5.5%.

Let's now take a look at the AUD/USD technical picture in the H4 time frame. The market re-tested the golden trend line dynamic support around the level of 0.7743 and bounced higher to make a marginal lower high at the level of .07810. Despite this bullish efforts, there is no continuation of the up move so far and the price might be getting ready to go back to the trading range between the levels of 0.7743 - 0.7810. The key technical support is seen at the level of 0.7729 and this is the last support before the swing support at 0.7642.

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BITCOIN Analysis for April 18, 2018

Bitcoin has been consolidating recently for a few days which is expected to push higher towards $8,500 price area pretty soon along with certain corrections along the way. As for the current market price structure formation, more market participants are being encouraged to invest in Bitcoin which is expected to lead to further bullish pressure in the coming days. Though there has been a certain shock about the exchanges in Japan being shut down but this event did not have much impact on the Bitcoin bullish pressure which also explains the strength of the bulls in the current market situation. As for the current scenario, price is residing at the edge of dynamic levels support of 20 EMA, Tenkan and Kijun Line from where Kumo Cloud is also expected to support the bullish gains to proceed higher towards $8,500 and later towards $10,000 in future. As the price remains above $7,000 with a daily close, further bullish pressure is expected in the market.

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