Technical analysis for the EUR/USD currency pair for the week from September 30 to October 5

Trend analysis.

This week, after testing the target level of 161.8%, the price will try to start moving upwards in a pullback with the first target of 1.0978 – a pullback level of 14.6% (blue dotted line).

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Fig. 1 (weekly chart).

Complex analysis:

- Indicator analysis – up;

- Fibonacci levels – up;

- Volumes – up;

- Candlestick analysis – neutral;

- Trend analysis – down;

- Bollinger Bands – down;

- Monthly chart – up.

The conclusion of the complex analysis – an upward movement.

The total result of calculating the candle of the EUR/USD currency pair according to the weekly chart: the price for weeks is more likely to have an upward trend with the absence of the first lower shadow of the weekly white candlestick (Monday – up) and the presence of the second upper shadow (Friday – down).

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Indicator analysis. Daily review on September 30, 2019 for the GBP / USD currency pair

Trend analysis (Fig. 1).

On Monday, the price will move up with the first target of 1.2317 - a pullback level of 14.6% (red dashed line). The price, in case of breaking through, can continue to move up with the target of 1.2345 - a pullback level of 23.6% (red dashed line).

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Fig. 1 (daily chart).

Comprehensive analysis:

- indicator analysis - up;

- Fibonacci levels - up;

- volumes - up;

- candlestick analysis - up;

- trend analysis - down;

- Bollinger Lines - down;

- weekly schedule - up.

General conclusion:

On Monday, the price will start moving up.

An unlikely scenario is a downward movement, with the first target of 1.2198 - a pullback level of 61.8% (blue dashed line).

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Indicator analysis. Daily review on September 30, 2019 for the EUR / USD currency pair

Trend analysis (Fig. 1).

On Monday, the price may continue to move down with the target at 1.0906 - the lower fractal. 161.8% (red dashed line). Intermediate points where pullbacks are possible, means additional entry points down 1.0920 - the target level is 161.8% (red dashed line).

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Fig. 1 (daily chart).

Comprehensive analysis:

- indicator analysis - down;

- Fibonacci levels - down;

- volumes - down;

- candlestick analysis - up;

- trend analysis - down;

- Bollinger Lines - up;

- weekly schedule - down.

General conclusion:

On Monday, a downward movement is possible.

An unlikely scenario is an upward movement with the target at 1.0969 - an upper fractal.

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GBP/USD: plan for the European session on September 30. Bears are not going to leave the market and are preparing a breakthrough

To open long positions on GBP/USD you need:

Pound buyers tried to return to the market, but nothing came of it. The entire focus in the morning will be shifted to UK GDP data, as a weak report will lead to a further downward trend. The bulls will try to form another false breakdown in the support area of 1.2284, which will be the first signal to open long positions in GBP/USD, however, a more important goal will be to break the resistance of 1.2323, which will lead to an upward correction to the area of a high of 1.2364, where I recommend taking profit. If fundamental statistics disappoint traders, then it is best to consider new purchases in GBP/USD after updating the lows near 1.2238 and 1.2165.

To open short positions on GBP/USD you need:

Sellers are not yet experiencing serious problems and continue to "bend" their line. A break of the low of 1.2284, which may coincide with the release of weak fundamental statistics on the growth of the UK economy, will lead to a further decrease in GBP/USD to the area of 1.2238, however, the further target of the bears in the middle of this week will be the support of 1.2165, where I recommend taking profit. If the pressure on the pair weakens in the first half of the day, it is best to count on short positions on a false breakdown from a resistance of 1.2323, but selling the pound right away on a rebound is best done from a high of 1.2364

Signals of indicators:

Moving averages

Trading below 30 and 50 moving averages, indicating a bear market in the short term.

Bollinger bands

A break of the lower boundary of the indicator in the region of 1.2270 will lead to increased pressure on the pair, while growth will be limited by the upper level in the region of 1.2323.

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Description of indicators

  • MA (moving average) 50 days - yellow
  • MA (moving average) 30 days - green
  • MACD: Fast EMA 12, Slow EMA 26, SMA 9
  • Bollinger Bands 20
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EUR/USD: plan for the European session on September 30. Bears showed active resistance around 1.0958

To open long positions on EURUSD you need:

Further growth of the European currency will directly depend today on a number of fundamental statistics that are published for the countries of the eurozone. Particular attention was on the report on the unemployment rate in the eurozone and the German consumer price index. An important task of the bulls will be the retention and formation of a false breakdown at the level of 1.0930, since only after this we can talk about maintaining the upward correction. However, a more important goal will be a breakthrough and consolidation above the resistance level of 1.0958, which will lead to continued growth and updating the high of 1.0988, where I recommend taking profits. In case of weak fundamental data, it is best to expect buyers to return to the market after updating a low of 1.0905, or on a rebound from a larger support of 1.0873.

To open short positions on EURUSD you need:

Sellers should push EUR/USD below the support of 1.0930, which will lead to the demolition of a number of stop orders and a further downward movement to the low of 1.0905. Its breakdown will depend on a number of statistics on the eurozone and Germany, as weak reports will further increase pressure on the euro, and lead to a test of lows 1.0873 and 1.0840, where I recommend taking profits. In case of an upward correction, the upper boundary of the downward price channel, which borders on the resistance of 1.0958, will act as resistance. The formation of a false breakdown there will be a direct signal to open new short positions along the trend.

Signals of indicators:

Moving averages

Trading is carried out in the region of 30 and 50 moving average, which indicates a possible stop of the downward trend.

Bollinger bands

In the event of EUR/USD decline in the first half of the day, a break of the lower boundary of the indicator at 1.0930 will increase the pressure on the euro.

analytics5d91a0de398df.png

Description of indicators

  • MA (moving average) 50 days - yellow
  • MA (moving average) 30 days - green
  • MACD: Fast EMA 12, Slow EMA 26, SMA 9
  • Bollinger Bands 20
The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Technical analysis of ETH/USD for 30/09/2019

Crypto Industry News:

Mario Draghi, president of the European Central Bank (ECB), shared his views on stablecoins, the future of cryptographic assets and the possible digital form of the euro.

In a letter to European Parliament Member Eva Kaili, the President of the ECB noted that the European System of Central Banks (ESCB) closely monitors developments in the cryptocurrency industry.

"The ESCB is analyzing crypto-assets and stablecoins to understand their potential implications for monetary policy, payment security and efficiency and market infrastructure, and financial system stability," he added.

Despite a positive approach to new technologies, Draghi apparently believes that stablecoins and cryptocurrencies are generally of little value.

"So far, stablecoins and crypto assets have had limited applications in these areas and have not been designed in a way that makes them suitable money substitutes," he said.

Draghi added that due to continuous technological innovation and rapid evolution in the cryptocurrency industry, the ECB's rating may be different in the future.

Technical Market Overview:

The ETH/USD pair keeps trading below the level of $176.66 which is the key short-term technical resistance level. Moreover, despite the clear bullish divergence between the momentum and the price, the bulls were unable to rally higher. The market ended up closed in a narrow range between the levels of $163.98 - $176.66 and that was the weekend range. The low for the wave (C) is now very near and it was tested once before, so in the case of a bearish breakout, this support might fail. The nearest technical support below the $151.30 is seen at the level of

Weekly Pivot Points:

WR3 - $256.80

WR2 - $233.68

WR1 - $197.61

Weekly Pivot - $174.45

WS1 - $137.03

WS2 - $112.52

WS3 - $77.73

Trading Recommendations:

The best strategy in the current market conditions is to trade with the larger timeframe trend, which is still up. All the shorter timeframe moves are still being treated as a counter-trend correction inside of the uptrend. When the wave 2 corrective cycles are completed, the market might will ready for another impulsive wave up of a higher degree and uptrend continuation.

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Technical analysis of BTC/USD for 30/09/2019

Crypto Industry News:

The Emsisoft software company has released a bug fix for Bitcoin malware - WannaCryFake.

Free software announced in the blog post will help you recover encrypted files without causing data loss. Unlike cryptocurrency mining exploits, ransomware is dependent on forcing you to get loot. According to a McAfee report, ransomware attacks increased by 118 percent in 2019, representing 504 new threats per minute.

WannaCryFake is a variant of the infamous WannaCry ransomware that attacks Microsoft computers in 2017. Locks victim files using AES-256 or the advanced encryption standard.

The BTC/USD pair is still trading close to the recent lows at the level of $7,676 after the weekend. The trading conditions on Saturday and Sunday were not in favor of bulls as the bounce from the last local low as shallow with a high at the level of $8,238. There is still a chance for the wave (C) termination soon, but is the bears will keep making pressure on bulls then the next target is seen at the level of $7,419.

Weekly Pivot Points:

WR3 - $11,446

WR2 - $10,627

WR1 - $9,093

Weekly Pivot - $8,403

WS1 - $6,727

WS2 - $6,011

WS3 - $4,444

Trading Recommendations:

Due to the short-term impulsive scenario invalidation, the best strategy in the current market conditions is to trade with the larger timeframe trend, which is still up. All the shorter timeframe moves are still being treated as a counter-trend correction inside of the uptrend. When the wave 2 corrective cycles are completed, the market might will ready for another impulsive wave up of a higher degree and uptrend continuation.

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Overview of GBP/USD on September 30th. Forecast according to the "Regression Channels". Germany – not opposed to giving more

4-hour timeframe

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Technical data:

The upper channel of linear regression: direction – down.

The upper channel of linear regression: direction – up.

The moving average (20; smoothed) – down.

CCI: -105.5947

At the weekend, representatives of the German Foreign Ministry explained that Berlin was not opposed to providing a new respite on Britain's exit from the EU. According to Heiko Maas, the main goal is to reach an agreement with London, a consensus. The German Foreign Ministry also noted that the new transfer requires "the prospect" of further progress in the negotiations and the procedure of "divorce". It is based on this opinion that France does not consider it right to grant London a new reprieve, as it does not see any constructive proposals regarding the "backstop". Maybe that's what Boris Johnson wants? Maybe he just drags on until the summit on October 17/18, at which again he will not offer anything interesting to Jean Claude Juncker and will hope that the EU leaders will not go on a new transfer date for Brexit, given the fact that the negotiations can not move from the "dead" point? We have already understood that Boris Johnson will look for workarounds for the Parliament's decision, which obliges him to ask for a delay. But maybe the EU itself will refuse to grant a reprieve if Johnson continues to show complete inaction on the issue of negotiations on the "deal" on Brexit? As there is no information from the UK government on this issue, it may be one of the possible scenarios.

In any case, in three weeks, we will know what the British Prime Minister is up to. In the meantime, we state the fact: the pound is under market pressure again, as the uncertainty on the outcome of Brexit has increased again, traders again do not know how everything can end, Boris Johnson leaves possible for the execution of half a dozen options. Thus, the next fall of the pound is expected and logical. As before, the British currency rose on positive emotions, expectations of traders regarding the transfer of Brexit, blocking the Parliament of "hard" Brexit, but now, when there is no Brexit transfer, no Brexit agreement, the danger is growing again.

Boris Johnson himself said on Sunday that he did not intend to resign and did not intend to ask EU leaders to postpone Brexit. How then to consider Johnson's proposal to the deputies to pass him a vote of no confidence? Correctly, it was made only for the sake of carrying out the early elections to Parliament which the Prime Minister achieves by all forces. Thus, we will witness at least 3-4 more weeks of "military actions" in Parliament.

The British pound, meanwhile, continues to fall non-stop. The euro has at least slightly adjusted, the pound – no. Today in the UK, data on GDP for the second quarter will be released, it is expected that in annual terms the growth will be 1.2%. Any value below 1.2% is almost guaranteed to cause new sales of the British currency. No important news is expected from overseas today.

Nearest support levels:

S1 – 1.2268

Nearest resistance levels:

R1 – 1.2299

R2 – 1.2329

R3 – 1.2360

Trading recommendations:

The GBP/USD pair continues its downward movement on September 30. Thus, traders are advised to continue buying the US currency with a target of 1.2268 and below. Short positions can be held until the Heiken Ashi indicator turns up. It is not recommended to buy the pound/dollar pair now.

In addition to the technical picture, fundamental data and the time of their release should also be taken into account.

Explanation of illustrations:

The upper linear regression channel – the blue line of the unidirectional movement.

The lower linear regression channel – the purple line of the unidirectional movement.

CCI – the blue line in the indicator regression window.

The moving average (20; smoothed) – the blue line on the price chart.

Support and resistance – red horizontal lines.

Heiken Ashi – an indicator that colors bars in blue or purple.

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Technical analysis of GBP/USD for 30/09/2019

Technical Market Overview:

The GBP/USD pair has moved lower towards the level of 50% Fibonacci retracement located at 1.2268. The bounce from this level was rather shallow, so the price is still under the bearish pressure and the market is trading below the trendline. The next target for bears is seen at the level of 1.2231 - 1.2224 and if violated, then the bears might push the prices towards the 61% Fibonacci located at the level of 1.2195. Please notice, the market conditions are now extremely oversold and the RSI is showing a negative and weak momentum, so the bounce might occur any time soon.

Weekly Pivot Points:

WR3 - 1.2628

WR2 - 1.2566

WR1 - 1.2402

Weekly Pivot - 1.2333

WS1 - 1.2163

WS2 - 1.2096

WS3 - 1.1935

Trading Recommendations:

The best strategy for current market conditions is to trade with the larger timeframe trend, which is down. All upward moves will be treated as local corrections in the downtrend. In order to reverse the trend from down to up, the key level for bulls is seen at 1.2505 and it must be clearly violated. The key short-term technical support is seen at the level of 1.2231 - 1.2224 and the key short-term technical resistance is located at the level of 1.2381. As long as the price is trading below this level, the downtrend continues towards the level of 1.1957 and below.

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Technical analysis of EUR/USD for 30/09/2019

Technical Market Overview:

The EUR/USD pair has made another lower low at the level of 1.0905, so the Bullish Engulfing candlestick pattern is now invalidated. The bulls are trying to bounce, but so far they were capped by the nearest technical resistance located at the level of 1.0964. The short-term and long-term trend is still down, but due to the extremely oversold market conditions, the bulls still have a chance for a move towards the level of 1.0964 and higher towards the level of 1.0978. The next target for bears is seen at the level of 1.0817.

Weekly Pivot Points:

WR3 - 1.1116

WR2 - 1.1087

WR1 - 1.0996

Weekly Pivot - 1.0951

WS1 - 1.0872

WS2 - 1.0826

WS3 - 1.0757

Trading Recommendations:

The best strategy for current market conditions is to trade with the larger timeframe trend, which is down. All upward moves will be treated as local corrections in the downtrend. The downtrend is valid as long as it is terminated or the level of 1.1445 clearly violated. There is an Ending Diagonal price pattern visible on the larget timeframes that indicate a possible downtrend termination soon. The key short-term levels are technical support at the level of 1.0926 and the technical resistance at the level of 1.1267.

analytics5d91932572916.jpg

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Overview of EUR/USD on September 30th. Forecast according to the "Regression Channels". Will German inflation foreshadow

4-hour timeframe

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Technical data:

The upper channel of linear regression: direction – down.

The lower channel of linear regression: direction – down.

The moving average (20; smoothed) – down.

CCI: -71.8103

Traders will not receive a large number of macroeconomic reports on Monday. Today, September 30, we can only note the unemployment rate in the European Union and the consumer price index (preliminary value) in Germany for September. Traders traditionally do not react to the first indicator, the second is insignificant and interest is only in the context of forecasting the future inflation report in the European Union. The fact is that European inflation has fallen to record lows of around 1.0% in recent months, which is much lower than the target level set by the ECB (2.0%). Thus, a slowdown in inflation in Germany, the main economy of the European Union, could mean an automatic slowdown in inflation in the EU. Is it worth saying once again that the new fall in inflation in the EU will cause new sales of the euro?

By the way, the EUR/USD pair managed to adjust slightly at the end of Friday. It is too early to signal the completion of the correction, but the chances that it has already been completed are high. If the euro resumes falling today, we will assume that traders have shown the general mood for this week, as there are almost no macroeconomic reports today.

From foreign policy news, we can note the continuation of the Democratic war with Donald Trump. Although there is nothing to note here. The US dollar completely ignored the topic of possible impeachment of the President. The US Department of Justice found no sign of Trump's pressure on Ukraine in a publicly announced telephone conversation. Democrats, on the other hand, called for deciphering Trump's conversations with Russian President Putin, citing the need for verification "did the president violate the principles of national security and use power in his interests?" In principle, Democrats can now demand to decipher all of Trump's conversations with world leaders over the past few years. The Democrats have not managed to play the card with pressure on Ukraine, at least not yet. However, since Joe Biden is a representative of the Democratic Party, the constant pressure on Trump in anticipation of the presidential election is logical. Moreover, in some ways, Trump himself provoked a war with the Democrats with his requests to investigate the activities of his main rival in Ukraine.

From a technical point of view, the euro/dollar pair maintains a downward trend, all indicators are directed downwards. The reversal of the Heiken Ashi indicator down today will indicate the resumption of the downward trend, and bears will be able to update the two-year lows of the pair again. In general, we believe that there are no special obstacles for the further fall of the pair now.

Nearest support levels:

S1 – 1.0925

S2 – 1.0864

S3 – 1.0803

Nearest resistance levels:

R1 – 1.0986

R2 – 1.1047

R3 – 1.1108

Trading recommendations:

The euro/dollar pair is preparing to complete the correction and resume the downward movement. Thus, it is recommended to wait for the color of 1-2 bars in blue and sell the euro with a target of 1.0864. It is not recommended to return to the purchases of the currency pair now.

In addition to the technical picture, fundamental data and the time of their release should also be taken into account.

Explanation of illustrations:

The upper linear regression channel – the blue line of the unidirectional movement.

The lower linear regression channel – the purple line of the unidirectional movement.

CCI – the blue line in the indicator window.

The moving average (20; smoothed) – the blue line on the price chart.

Support and resistance – red horizontal lines.

Heiken Ashi – an indicator that colors bars in blue or purple.

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Elliott wave analysis of EUR/JPY for September 30 - 2019

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EUR/JPY seemed to have completed wave ii with the test of 117.43. All that is needed now to confirm that wave ii has been completed and wave iii is developing is a break above resistance at 118.56. In the short-term, we could see a minor set-back to support in the 117.66 - 117.83 area before the next and likely successful test to break above short-term key-resistance at 118.56 for the next impulsive rally towards at least 121.93 and likely higher.

R3: 118.79

R2: 118.56

R1: 118.20

Pivot: 118.03

S1: 117.91

S2: 117.83

S3: 117.66

Trading recommendation:

We will bought EUR at 117.92 and have placed our stop at 117.40

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Trading plan for EURUSD for September 30, 2019

Technical outlook:

The EURUSD is seen to be trading around 1.0930/35 levels at the moment. After printing intraday lows at 1.0900 levels last Friday, it might be setting up to push above 1.0967 levels which is initial price resistance. A break would be the first step to confirm that a meaningful bottom is in place at 1.0900 levels and that the pair is heading towards 1.1450. The ending diagonal structure described in the video is a terminating pattern and a swift reversal in trend is expected after that. It is to be seen how price action develops during the next foe hours or days to confirm a bullish reversal ahead.

Trading plan:

Aggressive long against 1.0850

Good luck!

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Elliott wave analysis of GBP/JPY for September 30 - 2019

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Short-term key-support at 132.10 remains untouched. We will likely see a test of this key-support soon and it will most likely reject the first attempt and cause a minor corrective rally to 133.30 before moving lower again to test the key-support at 132.10. This time we will expect a successful breakthrough towards the ideal target near 130.78 before red wave ii is complete and red wave iii towards 139.20 should start to unfold.

R3: 133.68

R2: 133.51

R1: 133.28

Pivot: 132.92

S1: 132.56

S2: 132.10

S3: 131.96

Trading recommendation:

We will buy GBP at 131.25 or upon a break above 134.61

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Forecast for EUR/USD on September 30, 2019

EUR/USD

On Friday, after the euro's attempt to overcome support at 1.0926, the price chose to return a little higher in order to try to do it with fresh energy in the new week. This morning a little strength was given by economic data on the Asia-Pacific; retail sales for August show growth of 2.0% y/y against the forecast of 0.7% y/y, business activity in the manufacturing sector of China (Manufacturing PMI) for September increased from 49.5 to 49.8. In the afternoon, employment indicators in the euro area will come out, forecasts are neutral, so investors are interested in how much the data deviate from expectations.

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On a four-hour chart, the price is near the signal level of 1.0926, consolidating below it will launch the main decline scenario. We are waiting for the price in the target range of 1.0806/44, formed by the line of the price channel and the Fibonacci level of 161.8%. Strong economic indicators in the euro area and weak in the US (if the Chicago PMI is weaker than the forecast of 50.0) may pull up the euro to the MACD line, to around 1.1000.

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Forecast for USD / JPY pair on September 30, 2019

USD / JPY pair

At the end of last week, the dollar managed to maintain growth and approached the resistance of the falling price channel line. Overcoming this resistance (108.24) opens the second target at the top line of the same declining price channel in the region of 109.09. Until the price goes beyond the nearest line of 108.24, support for the green rising channel at 107.26 can be worked out. Here, there are signs of a triangle forming within the green and red lines.

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On a four-hour chart, the price with the support of the balance line (red indicator) went above the MACD line (indicator blue) and the Marlin oscillator in the growth zone. The condition on H4 increases the chances of overcoming 108.24.

analytics5d917bbdd45da.png

Today's economic data for Japan showed an increase in retail sales by 2.0% y/y in August against expectations of 0.7% y/y, but the industrial production in the same month fell by 1.2% against the forecast of -0.5%. The yen remained at Friday close levels while waiting for new events.

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Forecast for GBP/USD on September 30, 2019

GBP/USD

On Friday, the British pound did not hold its own fall and closed the day with a loss of another 35 points. The Marlin oscillator has entered a negative trend zone. The closest target on the Fibonacci level of 223.6% on the daily chart has become very close (1.2230), but a more serious goal is at the price of 1.2150 - at the point of convergence of the Fibonacci level of 238.2% with the line of the price channel and the MACD line approaching this area. It is likely to cause an upward correction of the pound.

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On the four-hour chart, there is currently a triple convergence, but it is weak, leaving the signal line of the indicator under the forming line of azure color will cancel this convergence. On the price chart, the reversal signal will lose relevance after the price goes below the Friday low.

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EUR/USD facing bearish pressure from our first resistance level, potential big drop upcoming!

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EURUSD is facing bearish pressure from our first resistance level where we could be seeing a further drop to our first support level.

Entry: 1.09665

Why it's good : 23.6% fibonacci retracement, horizontal overlap resistance, 61.8% fibonacci extension

Stop Loss : 1.09869

Why it's good : horizontal pullback resistance, 38.2% fibonacci retracement

Take Profit : 1.08732

Why it's good: 100% fibonacci extension

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AUD/USD Drop in progress

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AUDUSD pull back in progress below resistance.

Entry: 0.67565

Why it's good : 61.8% Fibonacci extension.

Take Profit : 0.67225

Why it's good: 61.8% Fibonacci extension, 78.6% Fibonacci retracement.Stop Loss: 0.678010Why it's good: Graphical swing high, 100% Fibonacci extension

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Technical analysis: Important Intraday Levels For EUR/USD, September 30, 2019

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When the European market opens, some economic data will be released such as Unemployment Rate, Italian Prelim CPI m/m, Italian Monthly Unemployment Rate, German Unemployment Change, German Prelim CPI m/m, Spanish Flash CPI y/y, and German Retail Sales m/m. The US will also publish the economic data such as Chicago PMI, so amid the reports, the EUR/USD pair will move with low to medium volatility during this day. TODAY'S TECHNICAL LEVELS: Breakout BUY Level: 1.0994. Strong Resistance: 1.0988. Original Resistance: 1.0977. Inner Sell Area: 1.0966. Target Inner Area: 1.0941. Inner Buy Area: 1.0916. Original Support: 1.0905. Strong Support: 1.0894. Breakout SELL Level: 1.0888. (Disclaimer)The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Technical analysis: Important Intraday Levels for USD/JPY, September 30, 2019

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In Asia, Japan will release the Housing Starts y/y, Retail Sales y/y, and Prelim Industrial Production m/m. The US will also publish some economic data such as Chicago PMI. So there is a probability the USD/JPY pair will move with low to medium volatility during this day. TODAY'S TECHNICAL LEVELS: Resistance. 3: 108.51. Resistance. 2: 108.30. Resistance. 1: 108.09. Support. 1: 107.82. Support. 2: 107.61. Support. 3: 107.40. (Disclaimer)The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

USD/JPY approaching 1st resistance, potential to drop!

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USDJPY is approaching 1st resistance at 108.48 and could drop from there

Entry :100% Fibonacci extension

78.6% Fibonacci retracement

Horizontal swing high resistance

Take Profit : 106.71

Why it's good : 38.2% Fibonacci retracement

100% Fibonacci extension

Horizontal swing low support

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Fractal analysis of the main currency pairs as of September 30

Forecast for September 30 :

Analytical review of currency pairs on the scale of H1:

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For the euro / dollar pair, the key levels on the H1 scale are: 1.1052, 1.1024, 1.0991, 1.0966, 1.0911, 1.0880 and 1.0839. Here, we continue to monitor the development of the descending structure of September 13. Short-term downward movement is expected in the range 1.0911 - 1.0880. The breakdown of the last value will lead to a movement to a potential target - 1.0839. When this level is reached, we expect a pullback to the top.

Short-term upward movement is possibly in the range of 1.0966 - 1..0991. The breakdown of the last value will lead to an in-depth correction. Here, the target is 1.1024. This level is a key support for the bottom. Its breakdown will allow you to count on movement to a potential target - 1.1052. We are waiting for the initial conditions for the top to this level.

The main trend is the descending structure of September 13.

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 1.0966 Take profit: 1.0990

Buy 1.0993 Take profit: 1.1024

Sell: 1.0910 Take profit: 1.0882

Sell: 1.0878 Take profit: 1.0840

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For the pound / dollar pair, the key levels on the H1 scale are: 1.2448, 1.2395, 1.2362, 1.2362, 1.2286, 1.2258 and 1.2203. Here, we are following the development of the descending structure of September 20. Short-term downward movement is expected in the range 1.2286 - 1.2258. The breakdown of the last value will lead to movement to a potential target - 1.2203. When this level is reached, we expect a pullback to the top.

Short-term upward movement is expected in the range 1.2362 - 1.2395. The breakdown of the latter value will lead to an in-depth correction. Here, the target is 1.2448. This level is a key support for the downward structure.

The main trend is the descending structure of September 20.

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 1.2362 Take profit: 1.2395

Buy: 1.2397 Take profit: 1.2446

Sell: 1.2286 Take profit: 1.2260

Sell: 1.2256 Take profit: 1.2204

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For the dollar / franc pair, the key levels on the H1 scale are: 1.0054, 1.0037, 1.0007, 0.9985, 0.9954, 0.9935, 0.9908 and 0.9883. Here, the price is in the initial conditions for the upward cycle of September 24. The continuation of movement to the top is possibly after the breakdown of the level of 0.9935. In this case, the first target is 0.9935. The breakdown of which, in turn, will lead to movement to the level of 0.9985. Short-term upward movement, as well as consolidation is in the range of 0.9985 - 1.0007. We consider the level of 1.0037 to be a potential value for the top. Upon reaching which, we expect consolidated movement in the range of 1.0037 - 1.0054.

Short-term downward movement is possibly in the range of 0.9908 - 0.9883. The breakdown of the latter value will lead to the cancellation of the upward structure. Here, we expect movement to a potential target - 0.9843.

The main trend is the initial conditions for the top of September 24.

Trading recommendations:

Buy : 0.9935 Take profit: 0.9952

Buy : 0.9955 Take profit: 0.9985

Sell: 0.9906 Take profit: 0.9888

Sell: 0.9880 Take profit: 0.9845

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For the dollar / yen pair, the key levels on the scale are : 108.84, 108.59, 108.24, 108.07, 107.79, 107.65 and 107.41. Here, we are following the development of the ascending structure of September 24. Short-term upward movement is expected in the range 108.07 - 108.24. The breakdown of the last value should be accompanied by a pronounced upward movement. Here, the target is 108.59. Price consolidation is near this level. For the potential value for the top, we consider the level of 108.84. Upon reaching this value, we expect a pullback to the bottom.

Short-term downward movement is expected after the breakdown of the last value in the range of 107.79 - 107.65, which will lead to an in-depth correction. Here, the goal is 107.41. This level is a key support for the top.

The main trend: the rising structure of September 24.

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 108.08 Take profit: 108.24

Buy : 108.26 Take profit: 108.57

Sell: 107.79 Take profit: 107.66

Sell: 107.63 Take profit: 107.44

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For the Canadian dollar / US dollar pair, the key levels on the H1 scale are: 1.3304, 1.3286, 1.3262, 1.3247, 1.3203, 1.3174, 1.3157 and 1.3131. Here, we are following the development of the descending structure of September 23. The continuation of the movement to the bottom is expected after the breakdown of the level of 1.3203. In this case, the target is 1.3174. Price consolidation is in the range of 1.3174 - 1.3157. For the potential value for the bottom, we consider the level of 1.3131. Upon reaching this level, we expect a pullback to the top.

Short-term upward movement is possibly in the range of 1.3247 - 1.3262. The breakdown of the last value will lead to an in-depth correction. Here, the target is 1.3286. This level is a key support for the top. Its breakdown will lead to the development of an upward structure. In this case, the potential target is 1.3304.

The main trend is the descending structure of September 23.

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 1.3247 Take profit: 1.3260

Buy : 1.3264 Take profit: 1.3286

Sell: 1.3203 Take profit: 1.3175

Sell: 1.3173 Take profit: 1.3158

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For the Australian dollar / US dollar pair, the key levels on the H1 scale are : 0.6822, 0.6797, 0.6782, 0.6745, 0.6732, 0.6705 and 0.6683. Here, we are following the development of the downward cycle of September 13. Short-term downward movement is possibly in the range 0.6745 - 0.6732. The breakdown of the last value should be accompanied by a pronounced downward movement. Here, the target is 0.6705. Price consolidation is near this value. For the potential value for the bottom, we consider the level of 0.6683. Upon reaching which, we expect a departure in the correction.

Short-term upward movement is possibly in the range of 0.6782 - 0.6797. The breakdown of the last value will lead to a long correction. Here, the potential target is 0.6822. This level is a key support for the downward structure.

The main trend is the downward cycle of September 13.

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 0.6782 Take profit: 0.6795

Buy: 0.6797 Take profit: 0.6820

Sell : 0.6745 Take profit : 0.6734

Sell: 0.6730 Take profit: 0.6707

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For the euro / yen pair, the key levels on the H1 scale are: 119.02, 118.57, 118.28, 117.73, 117.51, 117.10 and 116.73. Here, the price is in correction from the upward trend of September 18 and forms a small potential for the top of September 27. The continuation of the movement to the bottom is expected after the price passes the noise range 117.73 - 117.51. In this case, the target is 117.10. For the potential value for the bottom, we consider the level of 116.73. Upon reaching this value, we expect a rollback to the top.

Short-term upward movement is possibly in the range 118.28 - 118.57. The breakdown of the latter value will lead to in-depth movement. Here, the goal is 119.02. This level is a key support for the downward structure.

The main trend is the descending structure of September 18, the correction stage.

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 118.28 Take profit: 118.55

Buy: 118.60 Take profit: 119.00

Sell: 117.50 Take profit: 117.10

Sell: 117.08 Take profit: 116.73

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For the pound / yen pair, the key levels on the H1 scale are : 135.81, 134.58, 134.03, 133.06, 132.42, 131.45, 130.78 and 129.88. Here, we are following the development of the descending structure of September 20. Short-term movement to the bottom is expected in the range 133.06 - 132.42. The breakdown of the latter value should be accompanied by a pronounced downward movement. In this case, the target is 131.45. Price consolidation is in the range of 131.45 - 130.78. We consider the level of 129.88 to be a potential value for the downward movement. Upon reaching this level, we expect a pullback to the top.

Short-term upward movement is possibly in the range of 134.03 - 134.58. The breakdown of the latter value will lead to the formation of an upward structure. In this case, the potential target is 135.81.

The main trend is the formation of the downward structure of September 20.

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 134.03 Take profit: 134.55

Buy: 134.60 Take profit: 135.80

Sell: 132.40 Take profit: 131.45

Sell: 131.43 Take profit: 130.80

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

GBP/USD. Results of the month and previews of the new week. The historic and unprecedented victory of the Parliament over

24-hour timeframe

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There is opposition in any government in any country at all times. Sometimes this opposition simply expresses its opinion, sometimes it is required to adjust the decisions of the government, but in the case of Britain in the last three years, the opposition is needed in order to fight with the prime ministers. Moreover, in the confrontations between Parliament - Theresa May and Parliament - Boris Johnson, most of the neutral public and analysts choose the side of the Parliament, that is, the opposition. What Johnson and May have in common is that they, as leaders of the country, decided that they should, by all means and by any means possible, withdraw the country from the EU, that is, realize the will of citizens expressed in the 2016 referendum. In principle, this is absolutely logical. But the fact that it is necessary to leave the European Union as gently as possible, that is, with a minimum of negative consequences, has always been a concern for the deputies of the Parliament. Moreover, from different parties, and not just Labour, as the main opposition of the Conservatives. Many conservatives did not agree with the policies of both Theresa May and Boris Johnson. Those who were not afraid to express their opinion have already left this party and their posts in Parliament, voluntarily or forcibly. The main problem in the current situation, which does not even allow us to say with certainty which option is the most preferable and safe for the UK, is that the British people actually made the decision, but since the victory of supporters of the EU exit was minimal (52% out of 100%) , then at least 48% of the UK's population will be dissatisfied in any case. If Brexit gives rise to many problems of an economic plan, worsens the lives of citizens, creates problems at the borders and a shortage of goods, then all the bumps will fall right on the government. Therefore, most deputies regularly reject government attempts to withdraw the country from the EU as quickly as possible. If there was a "soft" war with Theresa May, then there is a "war without rules" with Boris Johnson. This is because Johnson immediately took a "hard" position under the title "I don't care what the Parliament believes, I will do what I want." The prime minister has a lot of power, so the Parliament went to rest. But since the British MPs have been fighting for several years for the most "soft" Brexit, Johnson's plan was quickly realized. The Supreme Court ruled that the suspension of the work of deputies is illegal and canceled it. And now Boris Johnson, who couldn't agree with the European Union, couldn't agree with the Parliament, couldn't offer an alternative to the "backstop", does not want to postpone Brexit, will have three weeks to do at least something that will be regarded as a constructive action. But it's hard to say what it will be and whether there will be one at all. The fact remains: on October 17/18, at the EU summit, Johnson must either sign a "deal" with Brussels, either ask for Brexit postponement, or commit a direct violation of the law and withdraw the country from the EU without a "deal". At the moment, there is no construct with the first option, so the question is: is Johnson ready to put an end to his career, but to withdraw Britain from the European Union against the will of deputies? After all, such an option can then also be challenged and canceled in the courts. The reason is simple: the prime minister violated the law of the country whose head he is ...

The pound sterling feels that the clouds are gathering again and so the currency started to fall in price. In October, at least another interim decision on Brexit should be made. In principle, any option except the implementation of the hard Brexit on October 31 is positive for the British currency.

Trading recommendations:

On the 24-hour timeframe, the pound/dollar pair has started a correction against the upward trend, but if it overcomes the Kijun-sen line, then the downward movement will continue with the target of 1,2011 (near multi-year lows of the pair), which can be traded off by traders.

In addition to the technical picture, fundamental data and the time of their release should also be taken into account.

Explanation of the illustration:

Ichimoku indicator:

Tenkan-sen is the red line.

Kijun-sen is the blue line.

Senkou Span A - light brown dotted line.

Senkou Span B - light purple dashed line.

Chikou Span - green line.

Bollinger Bands Indicator:

3 yellow lines.

MACD indicator:

Red line and bar graph with white bars in the indicator window.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

EUR/USD. Results of the month and previous of the new week. Will inflation slow down in the European Union?

24-hour timeframe

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Another month ends on the forex market and today we can sum up some results. The situation has not changed much for the euro over the past month. The downward trend remains. The correction ended near the critical Kijun-sen line. The fundamental background both local and long-term has not changed. Thus, traders may well expect a continuation of the downward movement of the EUR/USD pair in October. Just based on the fact that nothing has changed in the balance of power between the euro and the dollar. Both the Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank lowered their rates, but the European regulator also announced the revival of the quantitative stimulus program. Moreover, at the end of the month Mario Draghi will officially resign, and Christine Lagarde will take his place. The new head of the central bank - it is always suspense and uncertainty, and the foreign exchange markets do not like her, often preferring not to risk "dangerous" events. Thus, the situation for the euro has even slightly worsened and in October the bears can continue to dominate the market.

Two important macroeconomic reports will be published next week. The first is a report on inflation in the European Union. Here traders can hardly hope for anything positive. Again, simply because no structural changes are taking place in the EU economy. Yes, the rate on deposits was lowered, but it took too little time for this factor to spur inflation. As for the QE program, it starts only in November. That is, it turns out that, purely theoretically, inflation in the EU may slightly accelerate, for example, by 0.1%. This may be an accident, or due to some seasonal product groups. But in general, inflation will remain unchanged at 1.0% or continue to decline further. In any case, the inflation report is unlikely to support the euro.

The second important report of the week is NonFarm Payrolls in the US. This report is important because it reflects the number of new jobs created in the country over the past month. One of the main engines of the US economy is precisely the constant development and growth of the labor market. The past value of the indicator was 130,000, the previous two months were a little more positive. In September, there are expectations from +140,000 to +175,000 new jobs outside the agricultural sector, according to various forecasts. But we would like to immediately note that, as in the case of European inflation, even if the real growth in September is below 140,000, this is unlikely to cause strong sales of the US dollar, as market participants are well aware that a monthly increase in the growth rate is impossible basically. Unemployment in the United States is at a very low level, so the overall labor market is in excellent condition. NonFarm growth is several thousand less than forecasted - this is not a big problem for the American economy. The peak that threatens the dollar is a local fall within the day.

So it turns out that there are no obstacles to the euro's decline. Of course, in any case, everything will depend on the mood of traders who may decide that buying the US dollar is more inappropriate, which will strengthen the pair, without visible fundamental reasons. But the likelihood of such an option is no more than 10%. A 90% probability that the pair will continue to move according to the main trend direction.

Trading recommendations:

The trend for the euro/dollar pair remains downward. Bears have updated two-year lows and are ready to continue to sell the pair with targets at 1.0883 and 1.0780. Thus, traders are encouraged to continue to stay in trend. It is not advisable to consider purchasing the euro yet.

In addition to the technical picture, fundamental data and the time of their release should also be taken into account.

Explanation of the illustration:

Ichimoku indicator:

Tenkan-sen is the red line.

Kijun-sen is the blue line.

Senkou Span A - light brown dotted line.

Senkou Span B - light purple dashed line.

Chikou Span - green line.

Bollinger Bands Indicator:

3 yellow lines.

MACD indicator:

Red line and bar graph with white bars in the indicator window.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com