BITCOIN Analysis for January 12, 2018

Bitcoin is currently struggling at the edge of $13,000 price area on the way to break below this price level in the coming days. The challenges and pressure from the global regulators for Bitcoin has been the biggest barrier against the bullish sentiment. South Korean ban on local cryptocurrency exchanges has been in effect by now. No wonder, the market sentiment is currently not quite sure about the growth of Bitcoin in the recent future. As for the recent Chinese Bitcoin Mining situation, the growth is speculated to be very low which also is a big factor to affect the growth of the Bitcoin's value. As for the current scenario, Bitcoin is expected to proceed much lower towards $11,000 price area amid confluence with Dynamic levels of 20 EMA, Tenkan, and Kijun line. Considering the current Bitcoin price action cycle, the price is expected to be quite impulsive with the bearish gains after it clears $13,000 with a daily close.

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Fundamental Analysis of AUD/CAD for January 12, 2018

AUD/CAD has been quite impulsive with bearish gains today despite worse economic reports published recently in Canada. AUD has been the dominant currency in this pair for the latest 2 months. AUD has been able to keep momentum, but market sentiment seems like changing a little bit. Recently, Canada's NHPI report was published with an unchanged value of 0.1% which was expected to increase to 0.2% and Building Permit report was also published with a significant decrease to -7.7% from the previous value of 4.4% which was expected to be at -0.7%. On the other hand, Australia's Retail Sales report showed a significant increase to 1.2% from the previous value of 0.5% which was expected to decrease to 0.4%. As for the current scenario, AUD is still quite strong fundamentally, technically, and sentimentally. So, CAD has not held bearish momentum until now as expected. In the coming days, AUD is expected to have an upper hand over CAD, leading to higher prices in the pair.

Now let us look at the technical view. The price is currently showing some bearish pressure off the support area between 0.9840-60 and expected to retrace towards the dynamic level of 20 EMA before showing some impulsive bullish momentum to proceed higher towards 0.9910 resistance area in the coming days. As the price remains above 0.9800 support area and dynamic level of 20 EMA, the bullish bias is expected to continue further.

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Global macro overview for 12/01/2018

The CPI data from the US was released in line with market expectations at the level of 0.1% but the fresh reading was lower than the last figure of 0.4%. On the yearly basis, the inflation dropped from 2.2% to 2.1% as expected. The biggest advance in core inflation data was noted in the ex-food and energy index (1.8% y/y vs 1.7% expected). The bad news is the real weekly earning data on the yearly basis are still very low at 0.7% although hourly earnings moved higher to 0.4% from 0.2%, they are still low.

In this situation, the Fed officials will not have enough justification to hike the interest rate more than three times in 2018, as expected. CPI serves as the headline figure for inflation. Simply put, inflation reflects a decline in the purchasing power of the Dollar, where each Dollar buys fewer goods and services. In terms of measuring inflation, CPI is the most obvious way to quantify changes in purchasing power. Inflation is generally bad news for the economy, causing instability, uncertainty and hardship. To address inflation, the Fed may raise interest rates. However, the Fed relies on the PCE Deflator as its primary gauge of inflation because the CPI does not account for the ability of the consumer to substitute out of CPI's set. Price changes tend to cause consumers to switch from buying one good to a less expensive-other, a tendency that the fixed-basket CPI figure does not yet account for. Given that the PCE Deflator is a more comprehensive calculation, based on changes in consumption; it is the figure the Fed prefers.

Let's now take a look at the USD/CAD technical picture at the H4 time frame. The market tried to rally above the technical resistance at the level of 1.2556 - 1.2598, but failed and returned to the short-term downtrend. The overbought market conditions indicate a possible test of the technical support at the level of 1.2485. The momentum indicator is still above its fifty level but is not pointing to the upside anymore, which supports the bearish view.

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Technical analysis of USD/JPY for January 12, 2018

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USD/JPY is under pressure. The pair tested the support at the key level of 111.00 overnight (January 11). Currently, the pair is off that low but remains capped by the descending 20-period moving average, which stands below the 50-period one. And the relative strength index is yet to recover the neutrality level of 50, showing a lack of upward momentum for the pair.

The U.S. dollar remained on the defensive as the euro jumped 0.7% to US$1.2031 (day-high at US$1.2059) as the European Central Bank's December meeting minutes helped to boost investors' expectations that the central bank is preparing to reduce its monetary stimulus program.

Therefore, intraday bearishness persists, and the pair should sink toward 110.45 once crossing below 110.80.

Alternatively, if the price moves in the opposite direction, a short position is recommended below 111.95 with a target of 110.80.

Chart Explanation: The black line shows the pivot point. The current price above the pivot point indicates a bullish position, while the price below the pivot point is a signal for a short position. The red lines show the support levels and the green line indicates the resistance level. These levels can be used to enter and exit trades.

Strategy: SELL, stop loss at 111.95, take profit at 110.80.

Resistance levels: 112.15, 112.35, and 112.55

Support levels: 110.80, 110.45, and 110.00.

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Technical analysis of USD/CHF for January 12, 2018

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USD/JPY is under pressure. Despite a recent rebound from 0.9730 (the low of January 11), the pair is still capped by a declining 50-period moving average. The relative strength index is mixed with a bearish bias. Even though a continuation of the technical rebound cannot be ruled out, its extent should be limited.

Hence, as long as 0.9750 is not surpassed, look for a new drop with targets at 0.9695 and 0.9670 in extension.

Chart Explanation: The black line shows the pivot point. The present price above the pivot point indicates a bullish position, and the price below the pivot point indicates a short position. The red lines show the support levels and the green line indicates the resistance levels. These levels can be used to enter and exit trades.

Strategy: Sell, stop loss at 0.9755, take profit at 0.9695.

Resistance levels: 0.9775, 0.9800, and 0.9840

Support levels: 0.9695, 0.9670, and 0.9650.

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Technical analysis of GBP/JPY for January 12, 2018

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GBP/JPY is expected to trade with a bullish bias above 150.85. Although the pair posted a pullback, a support base at 150.85 has formed and has allowed for a temporary stabilization. The relative strength index is mixed.

Therefore, as long as 150.85 is not broken, we are cautious with up targets at 152.10 and 152.60 in extension.

Alternatively, if the price moves in the direction opposite to the forecast, a short position is recommended below 150.85 with the target at 150.45

Strategy: BUY, stop loss at 150.85, take profit at 152.10

Chart Explanation: the black line shows the pivot point. The price above the pivot point indicates long positions; and when it is below the pivot point, it indicates short positions. The red lines show the support levels and the green line indicates the resistance levels. These levels can be used to enter and exit trades.

Resistance levels: 152.10, 152.60, and 153.00.

Support levels: 150.45, 150.15, and 149.60

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Technical analysis of NZD/USD for January 12, 2018

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All our targets which we predicted in the previous analysis have been hit. NZD/USD is expected to continue its upside movement. The pair broke above the key resistance at 0.7230 (the high of January 10), which becomes the key support now. The upward momentum is further reinforced by both rising 20-period and 50-period moving averages. The relative strength index advocates for a further advance. To sum up, as long as 0.7230 is not broken, look for a new challenge with targets at 0.7280 and 0.7300 in extension.

The black line shows the pivot point. Currently, the price is above the pivot point, which is a signal for long positions. If it remains below the pivot point, it will indicate short positions. The red lines are showing the support levels, while the green line is indicating the resistance levels. These levels can be used to enter and exit trades.

Resistance levels: 0.7280, 0.7300, and 0.7330.

Support levels: 0.7210, 0.7180, and 0.7150.

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Global macro overview for 12/01/2018

The report from the December meeting of the ECB suggests that the pressure of the hawkish wing on abandoning the expansive attitude is strong. Although in October President Draghi pledged that the asset purchase program would last at least until the end of September 2018, and maybe even longer, then "even longer" does not please everyone in the Governing Council. A robust recovery in the Eurozone and record-breaking PMI indices led to the ECB allowing a change in forwarding guidance earlier this year, which would mean a definitive closure of asset purchases in the third quarter. Earlier interest rate hikes are out of the question (the ECB will keep sequencing), but setting the exact deadline for QE completion allows an aggressive valuation of the moment of the first hike (beginning 2019?). The market was excited about the ECB Meeting Minutes, because it confirmed in them that what the EUR rally was based on at the turn of the year. It is doubtful that we would receive a confirmation message from ECB at the January meeting suggesting the end of QE in September, but the next meeting in March may be interesting. On the other hand, the protocol showed a completely different picture of the discussion at the meeting than President Draghi presented at the conference. It seems that two strong camps are clashing in the Governing Council and Draghi is one of those whose comments will not be on the way to buying EUR. It is worth remembering at the next press conference, which the president can use to release doves of surprise.

Let's now take a look at EUR/GBP technical picture at the H4 time frame. The market is still is trying to break out above the 78% Fibo at the level of 0.8919 and this is its third attempt. Strong momentum and a positive stochastic support the upward view. The nearest technical support is seen at the level of 0.8890 and 0.8869.

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Intraday technical levels and trading recommendations for EUR/USD for January 12, 2018

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Monthly Outlook

In January 2015, the EUR/USD pair moved below the major demand levels near 1.2050-1.2100 (multiple previous bottoms set in July 2012 and June 2010). Hence, a long-term bearish target was projected toward 0.9450.

In March 2015, EUR/USD bears challenged the monthly demand level around 1.0500, which had been previously reached in August 1997.

In the longer term, the level of 0.9450 remains a projected target if any monthly candlestick achieves bearish closure below the depicted monthly demand level of 1.0500.

However, the EUR/USD pair has been trapped within the depicted consolidation range (1.0500-1.1450) until the current bullish breakout was executed above 1.1450.

The current bullish breakout above 1.1450 allowed a quick bullish advance towards 1.2100 where recent evidence of bearish rejection was expressed (Note the Monthly candlestick of September).

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Daily Outlook

As anticipated, the ongoing bullish momentum allowed the EUR/USD pair to pursue further bullish advance towards 1.1415-1.1520 (Previous Daily Supply-Zone).

The daily supply zone failed to pause the ongoing bullish momentum. Instead, evident bullish breakout was expressed towards the price level of 1.2100 where the depicted Head and Shoulders reversal pattern was expressed.

If the recent bearish breakout persists below 1.1700 (Neckline of the reversal pattern), a quick bearish decline should be expected towards the price zone of 1.1415-1.1520 (Initial targets for the depicted H&S pattern).

Bearish target for the depicted Head and Shoulders pattern extends towards 1.1350. However, to pursue towards the mentioned target level, significant bearish pressure is needed to be applied against the mentioned zone (1.1415-1.1520).

However, In November, recent price action around the price zone of 1.1520-1.1415 indicated evident bullish recovery.

This hindered further bearish decline which allowed the current bullish pullback to occur towards the price level of 1.2100 where price action should be watched for a valid SELL entry.

On the other hand, daily persistence above 1.2100 confirms the depicted bullish continuation pattern with projected targets towards 1.2500.

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NZD/USD Intraday technical levels and trading recommendations for January 12, 2018

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Daily Outlook

A recent bullish breakout above the downtrend line took place on May 22. Since then, the market has been bullish as depicted on the chart.

This resulted in a quick bullish advance towards next price zones around 0.7150-0.7230 (Key-Zone) and 0.7310-0.7380 which was temporarily breached to the upside.

Recent bearish pullback was executed towards the price zone of 0.7310-0.7380 (newly-established demand-zone) which failed to offer enough bullish support for the NZD/USD pair.

Re-consolidation below the price level of 0.7300 enhanced the bearish side of the market. This brought the NZD/USD pair again towards 0.7230-0.7150 (Key-Zone) which failed to pause the ongoing bearish momentum.

An atypical Head and Shoulders pattern was expressed on the depicted chart which initiated bearish reversal.

As expected, the price level of 0.7050 failed to offer enough bullish support for the NZD/USD pair. That's why, further bearish decline was expected towards 0.6800 (Reversal pattern bearish target).

Evident signs of bullish recovery was expressed around the recent low (0.6780). That's why, a bullish pullback was executed towards 0.7150-0.7240.

The current price zone of 0.7140-0.7250 was considered a prominent Supply-Zone to be watched for SELL positions if enough bearish rejection is expressed on a daily basis.

However, early signs of bullish breakout above 0.7250 are being manifested on the chart. If so, a quick bullish movement would be expected towards 0.7320-0.7390.

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Bitcoin analysis for January 12, 2018

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The Bitcoin (BTC) has been trading sideways at the price of $13,850. The Russian Ministry of Finance is drafting a bill to legalize cryptocurrency trading on the approved exchanges. The ministry is already preparing a list of approved trading platforms. Th technical picture looks bearish.

Trading recommendations:

According to the 4H timeframe, the major thing is still the broken bearirsh Pennant pattern in the background. My advice is still to watch for potential selling opportunities. The downward targets are set at the levels of $12,745, $10,650 and $8,225.

Support/Resistance

$14,051 – Intraday resistance

$13,271– Intraday support

$12,746 – Objective target 1

$10,651 – Objective target 2

$8,225 – Objective target 3

With InstaForex you can earn on cryptocurrency's movements right now. Just open a deal in your MetaTrader4.

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Analysis of gold for January 12, 2018

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Recently, gold has been trading upwards. The price tested the level of $1,333.15. According to the 4H time frame, I found a broken 7-day rectangle, which is a sign that buyers are in control. My advice is to watch for potential buying opportunities. The upward projcted targets for the rectangle pattern are set at $1,341.00 and $1,348.00.

Resistance levels:

R1: $1,326.15

R2: $1,329.50

R3: $1,334.60

Support levels:

S1: $1,317.40

S2: $1,312.50

S3: $1,308.90

Trading recommendations for today: watch for potential buying opportunities.

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USD/JPY analysis for January 12, 2018

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Recently, the USD/JPY pair has been trading downwards. As I expected, the price tested the level of 110.97. According to the 30M time – frame, I found a broken bearish pennant, which is a sign that sellers are in control. Another sign of weakness is the breakout of yesterday's low at the prrice of 111.04. My advice is to watch for potential selling opportunities. The downward target is set at the price of 110.60.

Resistance levels:

R1: 111.75

R2: 112.25

R3: 112.60

Support levels:

S1: 110.90

S2: 110.55

S3: 110.05

Trading recommendations for today: watch for potential selling opportunities.

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Technical analysis of USD/CHF for January 12, 2018

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Overview:

  • The USD/CHF pair continues to move downwards from the level of 0.9778. Yesterday, the pair dropped from the level of 0.9778 to the bottom around 0.9700. Today, the first resistance level is seen at 0.9724 (the weekly pivot point) followed by 0.9748, while daily support 1 is found at 0.9700. Besides, the level of 0.9724 represents a weekly pivot point for that it is acting as major resistance today. Amid the previous events, the pair is still in a downtrend, because the USD/CHF pair is trading in a bearish trend from the new resistance line of 0.9724 towards the first support level at 0.9667 in order to test it. If the pair succeeds to pass through the level of 0.9667, the market will continue dropping towards the level of 0.9644. However, if a breakout happens at the resistance level of 0.9778, then this scenario may be invalidated.
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Technical analysis of NZD/USD for January 12, 2018

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Overview:

  • The NZD/USD pair continues to rise from the level of 0.7234 in the long term. It should be noted that the support is established at the level of 0.7234 which represents the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement level on the H1 chart. The price is likely to form a double bottom in the same time frame. Accordingly, the NZD/USD pair is showing signs of strength following a breakout of the highest level of 0.7234. So, buy above the level of 0.7234 with the first target at 0.7277 in order to test the daily resistance 1 and further to 0.7310. Also, it might be noted that the level of 0.7310 is a good place to take profit because it will form a new double top. On the other hand, in case a reversal takes place and the NZD/USD pair breaks through the support level of 0.7234, a further decline to 0.7173 can occur which would indicate a bearish market.
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Bitcoin analysis for 12/01/2018

Immediately after James Dimon admitted that he had made a mistake by calling the crypto-currency market a fraud, his successor appeared - a well-known investor and one of the richest people in the world - Warren Buffet. Already in 2012, he criticized Bitcoin, saying he would not have any value. In October 2017, he publicly announced that it was a speculative bubble that would break with a bang. His comments now appear when the biggest screamers have decided to duck their foreheads. "I have enough problems with things that I think I know something (...) Why should I occupy a long or short position on something that I do not know?" - said the investor, making it clear that he is not an expert in this field.

Binance exchange general director Zhao Changpeng confirmed that Buffett's words should not be taken too seriously: "I think he knows exchange trades and capital investments well, but I do not think he understands Bitcoin at all. I still respect many elements of his knowledge, but I think that in matters of cryptocurrency, he makes a big mistake."

So, maybe in the future Warren Buffet will acknowledge the mistake as well? TIme will tell.

Let's now take a look at the Bitcoin technical picture at the H4 time frame. The price is testing the level lower triangle pattern trend line around the level of $13,200, just above the local support at the level of $12,462. If this level is violated, then the market will test the level of $12,020 and possibly $11,152. The last one is the key level for bulls as any breakout lower will likely extend the sell-off to the level of $9,000. On the other hand, the nearest resistance is seen at the level of $15,553 as the corrective pattern unfolds.

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Trading plan for 12/01/2018

A calm night passed on the forex market with little change, though trends from Thursday have been sustained. EUR/USD approached 1.2065, supported by hawkish mentions in minutes of the ECB. USD remains in the middle of the area, modest increases are recorded by EUR, SEK, and GBP; on the other end are AUD, CAD, and NZD.Data from Chinese economy put raw material currencies under pressure.

On Friday 12th of January, the event calendar is light in important news releases, except for the US session, when Consumer Price Index, Retail Sales and Business Inventories data will be released.

EUR/USD analysis for 12/01/2018:

Yesterday's publication of the ECB Meeting Minutes confirms what the market has speculated for weeks - the end of QE may come sooner than later. Currently, EUR/USD is facing a second chance this year to break 1.2090, but trade is accompanied by hesitation, as in the afternoon the market participants will have to deal with key US data. CPI inflation and Retail Sales data for December are important elements of the question: what will the Fed do? Expectations for inflation are not excessive from 0.1% m/m for CPI and 0.2% for core inflation. The greater risk lies on the weak side of the result (even with such low expectations), taking into account the fragility of sentiment towards the US Dollar. The forecast for retail sales looks better (0.5% m / m), but if inflation fails, even the strongest consumer impulse will not help. Even if the data falls according to forecasts, it is still possible that the market will consider it as a green light to break the EUR / USD above 1.21, which may give a broader signal bor USD related crosses across the board.

Let's now take a look at EUR/USD technical pattern at the H4 time frame. The market has broken above the high at the level of 1.2086 and the next target projection is at the level of 1.2145. At this level, the wave five of the impulsive rally should terminate and the market should start a corrective cycle in wave four. When the correction is completed, there is still one more wave to the upside left.

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Market Snapshot: Gold is going to fill the gap?

The price of Gold has made another higher high at the level of $1,331 and it looks like the bulls keep getting stronger. At the daily time frame, there is an unfilled gap between the levels of $1,340 - $1,342 and this level might be the next target for bulls is the rally gets extended.

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Market Snapshot: USD/JPY at the key support.

The price of USD/JPY is testing the key technical support zone between the levels of 110.61 - 111.06 in oversold market conditions. Any violation of this zone will lead to further losses and the bears might target the level of 109.84 before any meaningful correction will occur. On the other hand, the nearest resistance is seen at the level of 111.45 and 111.61.

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Technical analysis of USDX for January 12, 2018

The Dollar index remains weak and in a bearish trend. Price is making new lows after we warned that a rejection at 92.60 would be a bearish sign for a move lower. There are some divergence signs in the current downward move so Dollar bears just need to be cautious. Breaking above 92.40 would be a bullish sign. Confirmation of a trend change will come on a break above 92.60.

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Black line - resistance trend line

Red lines - bullish divergence signs

Short-term resistance is at 92.20. Any bounce towards that level could find sellers and get price rejected again. Breaking above 92.20 and specially 92.40 where the black trend line resistance is, would bring in more buyers. Both MACD and RSI are showing divergence signs in the 4 hour chart.

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Weekly trend remains bearish. Price is making lower lows and lower highs. Weekly resistance is at 93.20. Only a weekly close above that level could signal a trend reversal. Confirmation of a weekly trend reversal will come with a weekly close above 94.30. Until then trend is bearish and price is heading lower towards 90.The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Trading plan 12/01/2018

Trading plan 12/01/2018

The picture: The dollar is ready to decline.

The inflation data in the U.S came out - inflation is below the forecast and it is not growing.

At the same time, data on retail sales came out. There is good growth, although this might be a seasonal effect following the growth of purchases during the holidays.

Probably, there will be an increase in inflation later while the dollar looks like it is ready to fall.

For the euro, the key level is 1.2090. Alternately, the price could go down to the level of 1.1915.

GBP / USD pair

There is uncertainty in the pound whether it would be happy with the exit of Britain from the EU or be upset.

News on the negotiations between the EU and Britain is contradictory.

The pound tries to grow and buying starts from the level of 1.3470.

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Technical analysis of gold for January 12, 2018

Gold price made a new higher high overnight. Trend remains bullish. Price remains supported. RSI is diverging. Bulls remain in control of the trend.

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Red lines -bearish divergence signs

Gold price has short-term support at $1,316 and resistance at $1,330.50. I'm still bearish but price does not follow my view. Price remains supported above the 4-hour Ichimoku cloud. Bulls remain in control. Although I give very little chances of this move going higher before any considerable correction, price is not falling so far. All oscillators are overbought, turning lower. Price is not. We have to respect price. But if the breakdown occurs, it will be a wild one.

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Red line - long-term resistance

On a weekly basis, the Gold price bounced strongly off the weekly cloud as expected and is heading towards the long-term red trend line resistance. Trend remains bullish and this week's candle is also bullish so far. Only a break below $1,309 would signal a trend reversal in Gold.

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EUR/USD testing strong resistance, prepare for a drop

The price is testing major resistance at 1.2057 (Fibonacci retracement, horizontal overlap resistance, bearish butterfly harmonic formation) and we expect to see a reaction off this level to push the price down towards 1.2018 before 1.1982 (Fibonacci retracement, horizontal overlap support).

Stochastic (34,5,3) is seeing major resistance at 97% where a corresponding reaction could occur.

Sell below 1.2057. Stop loss is at 1.2096. Take profit is at 1.1982.

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