BITCOIN Analysis for December 21, 2017

Bitcoin bearish pressure is still quite strong which lead the price to touch the $15,500 support area recently. Though the price has rejected off the $15,500 support area recently but the risk of breaking below it remains constant as bulls are currently quite weak to push the price higher. As of the earlier expectation about the price to be at $15,000 price area by the end of 2017 seemed to be a reality now. As of the current situation, Bitcoin is expected to remain under pressure for the coming days making the upcoming price action volatile and corrective in nature. Price is currently residing below the dynamic level of 20 EMA, Tenkan and Kijun line which has been working as a resistance to hold the price from further up moves. Currently the price is indecisive but expected to push lower towards $15,500 price area. If the price breaks below $15,500 with a daily close, then we will be looking forward for further bearish pressure with a target towards $12,000 price area. As the price remains above $15,000 price area, the bullish bias is expected to continue further but impulsive bullish pressure is expected to start after the price breaks above $18,000 price area in the future.

analytics5a3bc3a1c4bc2.jpg

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Fundamental Analysis of USD/CHF for December 21, 2017

USD/CHF has been trading with higher volatility recently but managed to regain some bullish momentum after having bounced off the 0.9750 to 0.9850 support area. Recently, USD has been struggling to gain some momentum after the Rate Hike this month but due to recent worse economic reports from Switzerland USD gained some momentum recently. Today, Swiss Trade Balance report was published with an increase to 2.63B from the previous figure of 2.33B but failed to meet the expected result of 2.84B which affected the momentum of CHF against USD, leading to further bullish pressure in the pair. On the USD side, today Final GDP report was published with a slight decrease to 3.2% which was expected to be unchanged at 3.3%, Philly Fed Manufacturing Index was published with an increase to 26.2 from the previous figure of 22.7 which was expected to be at 21.5, Unemployment Claims report was published with an increase to 245k from the previous figure of 225k which was expected to be at 232k, and Final GDP Price Index report was published unchanged as expected at 2.1%. Moreover, US HPI report is yet to be published which is expected to increase to 0.4% from the previous value of 0.3%, CB Leading Index report is expected to decrease to 0.4% from the previous value of 1.2%, and Natural Gas Storage is expected to show greater deficit of -160B from the previous figure of -69B. To sum up, USD has been quite mixed with the economic reports today. Besides, upcoming economic reports are also forecasted to be very confusing as well. Though USD is currently the dominant currency in the pair, a further gain on the USD side is expected to be quite corrective and volatile in nature against CHF.

Now let us look at the technical chart. The price is currently holding above the support area of 0.9750-0.9850 and expected to push higher towards 1.0050 resistance area in the coming days. If the price closes above the dynamic level of 20 EMA with a daily close today, then impulsive bullish pressure can be expected in the coming days. Otherwise, the bullish pressure is expected to be quite volatile and corrective. As the price remains above 0.9750-0.9850 support area, the bullish bias is expected to continue further.

analytics5a3bbcccbbca7.jpg

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Bitcoin analysis for December 21, 2017

analytics5a3bb8ec116a8.png

Bitcoin (BTC) has been trading downwards. The price tested the level of $15.466. A potentially giant step toward approval for listing bitcoin futures as exchange traded funds (ETFs) was taken this week when the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) Arca, owned by Intercontinental Exchange (ICE), filed a petition for a rule change regarding two potential ETFs. The document presumes much of the groundwork to be already completed, and could signal readiness to embrace even more mainstream acceptance for the world's most popular cryptocurrency. Technical picture looks bearish.

Trading recommendations:

According to 4H time - frame, I found a broken pennant pattern, which is a sign that buying looks risky. I also found a hidden bearish divergence on the moving average oscillator, which is another sign of weakness. My advice is to watch for potential selling opportunities. The downward target is set at the price of $13.723.

Support/Resistance

$17.296 – Intraday resistance (price action)

$15.466 – Intraday support

$13.723 – Objective target

With InstaForex you can earn on cryptocurrency's movements right now. Just open a deal in your MetaTrader4.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Fundamental Analysis of AUD/JPY for December 21, 2017

AUD/JPY has been trading with lower volatility in the upward bias. Recently, the price went higher, breaking above the 85.70 area. AUD has been the dominant currency in the pair amid the latest positive Employment Change report which helped the currency to gain good momentum. Among other upbeat reports are MI Leading Index which was published as unchanged at 0.1% and Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes with the hawkish stance. These factors contributed to a greater bullish momentum. On the other hand, JPY has been struggling amid mixed Japan's economic reports which made the price lose grounds against AUD for a few days in a row. Today, the Bank of Japan Policy Rate report was published with the unchanged key interest rate at -0.10% as it was expected that did not help the currency to regain some momentum but could help to slow down the AUD impulsive pressure somehow. As for the current scenario, AUD is expected to dominate JPY in the coming days that is expected to push the price much higher. In the run-up to the Christmas holiday, Japan does not have any high impact news or event to help its currency regain momentum.

Now let us look at the technical chart. The price is currently showing some bullish pressure having some bearish rejection at the beginning of the day. Volatility is gradually waning with no deeper pullbacks recently. So the pair is likely to proceed impulsively towards 88.00 resistance area in the coming days. As the price remains above 85.50-70 area, the bullish bias is expected to continue further.

analytics5a3bb331e80da.jpg

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Trading plan for 21/12/2017

The Bank of Japan decided not to change the monetary policy parameters at the December meeting. The interest rate is still -0.1%. Moreover, BoJ also declares that it will maintain yields of 10-year bonds around 0.00% by buying bonds worth 80 trillion yen annually. Only Goushi Kataoka, who is afraid of delays in meeting the inflation target, is an advocate of further loosening of monetary policy. Although the outlook for the economy remains better, Kuroda thinks it is too early to think about the normalization of monetary policy in a situation when inflation stays below the target. During the press conference, Governor Kuroda said, that there has been some improvement in prices in 2017 as the global exports and output have improved with the global economy. Moreover, according to him, the labor shortages are not holding back the economy and BoJ will adjust policy as needed to maintain momentum towards 2.0% price target.

Let's now take a look at the USD/JPY technical picture at the H4 time frame. There was no major USD/JPY reaction to the outcome of the BoJ meeting, but USD/JPY rates are heading to the local maximum at 113.75. This technical resistance level should stop the price as the market conditions are now starting to be overbought. Nevertheless, in a case of a further breakout higher, the next important technical resistance is seen at the level of 114.40.

analytics5a3bb1109130f.jpg

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Global macro overview for 21/12/2017

Most of the attention may focus today around the Canadian currency due to a number of publications from Canada. Today we will learn about Canadian retail sales for October, where the market consensus assumes sales increase by 0.3% in monthly terms as compared to an increase of 0.1% in the previous period. In addition, CPI inflation will be released, where it is expected to accelerate this indicator to 2.0% from 1.4% per annum. In the case of the core index, the indicator is expected to slightly slow down to 0.8% from 0.9% per annum. In particular, inflation data will be monitored due to the recent return of the bank of Canada comments towards more hawkish monetary policy. Although in the opinion of the bank stronger than anticipated increase in inflation results from temporary factors (mainly energy prices), it is worth noting that measures of core inflation have increased in recent months. BoC openly admitted that further interest rate hikes will be required in the future, so a higher inflation reading and retail sales should support CAD across the board

Let's now take a look at the USD/CAD technical picture in the H4 time frame. The market has tested the technical resistance at the level of 1.2919 four times already, but the bulls were too weak to break out above this level. The market remains in a sideways consolidation zone between the levels of 1.2620 - 1.2919 with neutral momentum at the time of writing. Better than expected data from Canada may become an impulse to go below the round level of 1.2800.

analytics5a3bb0e997960.jpg

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

GBP/USD analysis for December 21, 2017

analytics5a3bb04a36e31.png

Recently, the GBP/USD pair has been trading downwards. The price tested the level of 1.3339. According to the 4H time – frame, I found a broken upward trendline and descending triangle in creation, which is a sign that buying looks risky. My advice is to watch for potential selling opportunities. The first downward target is set at the price of 1.1305. Anyway, if the price breaks the level of 1.1300, it will confirm a potential larger downward movement (descending triangle confirrmation). In that case the downward target will be set at the price of 1.3070.

Resistance levels:

R1: 1.3405

R2: 1.3440

R3: 1.3455

Support levels:

S1: 1.3358

S2: 1.3340

S3: 1.3310

Trading recommendations for today: watch for potential selling opportunities.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Technical analysis of USD/CHF for December 21, 2017

1513860011_USDCHFH4.png

Overview:

  • The USD/CHF pair is stil continuing in uptrend since two days on the H4 chart. The bias remains bearish in the nearest term testing 1.0037 or higher. The price is still trading around the spot of 0.6948 and 0.7026. The USD/CHF pair will continue to rise from the level of 0.6948. The support is found at the level of 0.6948, which represents the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level in the H1 time frame. The price is likely to form a double bottom. Today, the major support is seen at 0.6948, while immediate resistance is seen at 0.7026. Accordingly, the USD/CHF pair is showing signs of strength following a breakout of a high at 0.6948. So, buy above the level of 0.6948 with the first target at 0.7026 in order to test the daily resistance 1. Also, the level of 0.7026 is a good place to take profit because it will form a double top. Amid the previous events, the pair is still in an uptrend; for that we expect the USD/CHF pair to climb from 0.7026 to 0.7065 today. At the same time, in case a reversal takes place and the USD/CHF pair breaks through the support level of 0.6948, a further decline to 0.6820 can occur, which would indicate a bearish market.
The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

EUR/USD analysis for December 21, 2017

analytics5a3ba9da8318e.png

Recently, the EUR/USD pair has been trading sideways at the price of 1.1860. Anyway, according to the 30M time – frame, I found a broken rising wedge forrmation inside of a lager broadening wegde formation, which is a sign that buying looks risky. My advice is to watch for potential selling opportunities. I have placed Fibonacci retracement to find potential downward targets. I got FR 38.2% at the price of 1.1840, FR 50% at the price of 1.1820 and FR 61.8% at the price of 1.1800.

Resistance levels:

R1: 1.1905

R2: 1.1940

R3: 1.1980

Support levels:

S1: 1.1835

S2: 1.1795

S3: 1.1760

Trading recommendations for today: watch for potential selling opportunities.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Technical analysis of NZD/USD for December 21, 2017

NZDUSDH1.png

Overview:

  • The resistance of NZD/USD pair is set at the level of 0.7034. The trend of NZD/USD pair movement was controversial as it took place in a narrow sideways channel, the market showed signs of instability. Amid the previous events, the price is still moving between the levels of 0.6927 and 0.7034.
  • Also, the daily resistance and support are seen at the levels of 0.6927 and 0.6872 respectively. Therefore, it is recommended to be cautious while placing orders in this area. So, we need to wait until the sideways channel has completed. Last week, the market moved from its bottom at 0.6927 and continued to rise towards the top of 0.7034. Today, in the one-hour chart, the current rise will remain within a framework of correction.
  • However, if the pair fails to pass through the level of 0.7034, the market will indicate a bearish opportunity below the strong resistance level of 0.7034 (the level of 0.7034 coincides with the double top too). Since there is nothing new in this market, it is not bullish yet. Sell deals are recommended below the level of 0.7034 with the first target at 0.6927. If the trend breaks the support level of 0.6927, the pair is likely to move downwards continuing the development of a bearish trend to the level 0.6872 in order to test the daily support 2. Tt should be noted that the double bottom is seen at the point of 0.6823.
The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Intraday technical levels and trading recommendations for EUR/USD for December 21, 2017

analytics5a3ba761a626c.png

Monthly Outlook

In January 2015, the EUR/USD pair moved below the major demand levels near 1.2050-1.2100 (multiple previous bottoms set in July 2012 and June 2010). Hence, a long-term bearish target was projected toward 0.9450.

In March 2015, EUR/USD bears challenged the monthly demand level around 1.0500, which had been previously reached in August 1997.

In the longer term, the level of 0.9450 remains a projected target if any monthly candlestick achieves bearish closure below the depicted monthly demand level of 1.0500.

However, the EUR/USD pair has been trapped within the depicted consolidation range (1.0500-1.1450) until the current bullish breakout was executed above 1.1450.

The current bullish breakout above 1.1450 allowed a quick bullish advance towards 1.2100 where recent evidence of bearish rejection was expressed (Note the previous Monthly candlestick of September).

analytics5a3ba77a4d1ab.png

Daily Outlook

In January 2017, the previous downtrend was reversed when the Inverted Head and Shoulders pattern was established around 1.0500. Since then, evident bullish momentum has been expressed on the chart.

As anticipated, the ongoing bullish momentum allowed the EUR/USD pair to pursue further bullish advance towards 1.1415-1.1520 (Previous Daily Supply-Zone).

The daily supply zone failed to pause the ongoing bullish momentum. Instead, the evident bullish breakout was expressed towards the price level of 1.2100 where the depicted Head and Shoulders reversal pattern was expressed.

If the recent bearish breakout persists below 1.1700 (Neckline of the reversal pattern), a quick bearish decline should be expected towards the price zone of 1.1415-1.1520 (Initial targets for the depicted H&S pattern).

The bearish target for the depicted Head and Shoulders pattern extends towards 1.1350. However, to pursue towards the mentioned target level, a significant bearish pressure is needed to be applied against the mentioned zone (1.1415-1.1520).

However, In November, recent price action around the price zone of 1.1520-1.1415 indicated evident bullish recovery. This hindered further bearish decline which allowed the current bullish pullback to occur towards the price level of 1.1900.

Trade Recommendations

The price levels around 1.1900-1.1950 were suggested for a valid short-term SELL entry. It's already running in profits.

S/L should be lowered to 1.1900 to offset the associated risk. Remaining T/P levels to be located at 1.1700 and 1.1590.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

NZD/USD Intraday technical levels and trading recommendations for December 21, 2017

analytics5a3ba60b0897d.png

Daily Outlook

A recent bullish breakout above the downtrend line took place on May 22. Since then, the market has been bullish as depicted on the chart.

This resulted in a quick bullish advance towards next price zones around 0.7150-0.7230 (Key-Zone) and 0.7310-0.7380 which was temporarily breached to the upside.

The recent bearish pullback was executed towards the price zone of 0.7310-0.7380 (newly-established demand-zone) which failed to offer enough bullish support for the NZD/USD pair.

Re-consolidation below the price level of 0.7300 enhanced the bearish side of the market. This brought the NZD/USD pair again towards 0.7230-0.7150 (Key-Zone) which failed to pause the ongoing bearish momentum.

An atypical Head and Shoulders pattern was expressed on the depicted chart which initiated bearish reversal.

As expected, the price level of 0.7050 failed to offer enough bullish support for the NZD/USD pair. That's why the further bearish decline was expected towards 0.6800 (Reversal pattern bearish target).

Evident signs of bullish recovery were expressed around the recent low (0.6780). That's why a bullish pullback is expected towards 0.7050.

Moreover, further bullish advance should be expected towards 0.7150 if enough bullish momentum is expressed above the price level of 0.7050.

Trade Recommendations:

An inverted Head and Shoulders pattern was established on the chart indicating a high probability of bullish reversal.

That's why the price zone of 0.6800-0.6830 was considered for a short-term BUY entry. Bullish persistence above 0.6950 (neckline) is mandatory to pursue towards next bullish targets.

S/L should be moved to 0.6900 to secure some profits. T/P level remains projected towards 0.7050 and 0.7110.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Bitcoin analysis for 21/12/2017

The launch of the Bitcoin futures deal has focused the attention of major financial institutions on cryptocurrencies. While the Chicago Board Options Exchange (CBOE) and the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CMG) have been recognized as pioneers in the Bitcoin futures market, discussions on cryptocurrency are underway around the world. Last Friday, Reuters informed that EU countries agreed to introduce stricter rules on the use of cryptocurrencies. Bearing in mind the fight against money laundering and tax evasion, these rules require greater transparency on the part of exchange operators. European Commissioner for Justice, Consumers and Gender Equality, Vera Jourova said: "Today's agreement will bring greater transparency, which will improve the prevention of money laundering and prevent the financing of terrorists."

In a recent interview for Reuters, an intelligence officer at MI5, Annie Machon, said that the European Union's decision to tighten the rules on cryptocurrencies exchanges is taken mainly to protect the interests of large banks. Analyzing the situation, Machon said it was a reflex reaction to the clash of new and old solutions. She further stated: "Any violation of our privacy rights on the Internet is always under the pretext of trying to stop money laundering or stop terrorism, pedophiles or anything else. I think most of the Bitcoin community probably use it in a lawful way, and governments just have a reason to break their right to privacy." Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies have a bad reputation for associating them with dark internet markets. But as Machon reminds us, the hands of banks are not clean either: "Yes, the criminals will use them, but criminals also use banks. Many banks have been caught laundering on a massive scale and have received huge fines for laundering of black and gray money, especially from drug trafficking. Maybe let us suggest to the EU that it should also close our banks."

The discussion is being observed by whole cryptocurrency society and enthusiasts as one of the most important discussion ever emerged in this field.

Let's now take a look at the Bitcoin technical picture at the H4 time frame. The local support at the level of $15,470 had been tested and the price reversed higher towards the level of $17,390. The key level to the upside is still the technical resistance at the level of $17,894. The corrective wave 4 might still get more complex and time-consuming if the wave progression will evolve into a triangle pattern.

analytics5a3b7cad57986.jpg

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Trading plan for 21/12/2017

The series of pre-holiday sessions on Asian trading exchanges are marked by fears and hopes related to the implementation of the fiscal reform by the Donald Trump administration. On currency market, EUR/USD breaks to 1.1901, USD/JPY is about to test 113.74 and GBP/USD is in the middle of the range at 1.3366. Gold is at $ 1,265, Crude Oil is trading at 58.10.

On Thursday 21st of December, the event calendar is light in important news releases, but the global investors will keep an eye on Public Sector Net Borrowing data from the UK, Final GDP and Philly Fed Manufacturing Index data from the US, Consumer Price Index, and Retail Sales data from Canada.

EUR/GBP analysis for 21/12/2017:

A series of political shuffles at the halfway point of the week did not result in a change in sentiment both on the currency market and on the debt market. Loud preparation of investors for the upcoming Christmas season was clearly drowned out by the speech of Michel Barnier, the chief negotiator on the issue of Brexit on behalf of the EU, who announced the end of the transition period from the last day of 2020. Moreover, that date, coinciding with the end of the EU's seven-year budget period and 21 months after Britain departs the EU, had long been expected as the target endpoint of the transition. The EU will also offer Britain a non-voting place at some meetings where decisions may affect specific issues and will set up special arrangements for a UK role in setting annual EU fishing quotas.

Let's now take a look at the EUR/GBP technical picture at the H4 time frame after the news was released. The bulls have managed to break out above the technical resistance at the level of 0.8868 and it looks like the price is heading towards the recent local highs at the level of 0.8991. Nevertheless, the market conditions are starting to look slightly overbought despite a decent upward momentum. The nearest support is seen at the level of 0.8868.

analytics5a3b73d2ec7b9.jpg

Market Snapshot: DAX in full-reversal mode?

The price of German DAX index has clearly reversed from the resistance at the level of 13,336 and is violating all the supports on its way down to the level of 12,953. The Head & Shoulders bearish scenario still remains valid and the drop might accelerate when the price will break below the level of 12,809.

analytics5a3b73de7e124.jpg

Market Snapshot: GBP/USD reverses again

The price of GBP/USD has reversed down after another test of the 61% Fibo at the level of 1.3415 and now is trading in the middle of the zone. The key technical support zone is seen between the levels of 1.3321- 1.3341.

analytics5a3b73e73c130.jpg

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Technical analysis of USD/JPY for December 21, 2017

The USD/JPY pair as expected is breaking higher. I continue to expect that price will eventually reach 115 over the coming weeks. Trend here is bullish. I'm a buyer at pull backs.

analytics5a3b6e86b644b.png

Price has reversed higher off the 50% Fibonacci retracement in the Daily chart and is breaking above the Ichimoku cloud resistance. Trend is bullish. Daily support is at 113. Resistance is at 113.90.

analytics5a3b6ecf5f448.png

The USD/JPY pair is respecting weekly cloud support. Price back tested the weekly Kumo (cloud) and is now bouncing higher above previous week's highs. Trend is clearly bullish and I expect 115 to be reached soon. My bullish view can only be canceled on a break below 111.50.The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Technical analysis of GBP/USD for December 21, 2017

The British pound against the Dollar is pulling back down towards 1.33 support after hitting resistance at 1.34-1.3450. Trend is mainly sideways while the longer-term picture remains unclear.

analytics5a3b6c16ac1d2.png

Red lines - resistance

Green line- support

The GBP/USD pair is trading again below the Ichimoku cloud. Price made another lower high yesterday above 1.34 but is still below last high of 1.3464. Bulls need to break above cloud and trend line resistance at 1.3410 and 1.3460. Support at 1.33 is crucial.

analytics5a3b6c8da6c5b.png

Black lines - long-term trend lines

Green line - support

The GBP/USD pair continues to respect both long-term trend lines. A break below 1.33 will push price towards 1.3150-1.32 where the upward sloping black trend line is found. A break above the downward sloping black trend line at 1.35 will push price towards 1.38-1.40.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Ichimoku cloud indicator analysis of USDX for December 21, 2017

The Dollar index has broken through cloud support and short-term trend has changed to bearish. However price shows reversal signs off the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement. Last line of defense for bulls now is the 92.50 level. However bears have the upper hand as long as price is below 94-94.30.

analytics5a3b69afb5126.png

Red rectangle - resistance

The Dollar index is making lower lows and lower highs in the 4-hour chart. Price is below the cloud. Trend is bearish. Support is at 93.15 and resistance at 93.65.

analytics5a3b6a75d9c03.png

On a weekly basis, the weekly candle shows a rejection at the kijun- and tenkan-sen indicators. This is a bearish sign. However I expect the Dollar to strengthen today and tomorrow so we have to be patient to see how the weekly candle closes. A weekly close above 93.60 this week will be a positive sign for next week. I'm bullish the Dollar index.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Burning Forecast 21/12/2017

Burning Forecast 21/12/2017

EURUSD: Buy from the rollback.

On Wednesday, the euro exchange rate gave a new signal for growth: it broke through an important level of an order of 1.1865, closing the day higher.

Despite a strong pullback from 1.1900, we look forward to a continuation of growth:

Buy from the rollback from 1.1865, stop-loss at 1.1820, profit of 1.1965.

On Thursday, a report on US GDP at 12.30 London time will be released, this may warm up the market.

An alternative option is selling for a breakthrough downwards at 1.1735.

analytics5a3b64509fa0c.jpg

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Ichimoku cloud indicator analysis of gold for December 21, 2017

Gold price has reached the upper area of my resistance at $1,268 and got rejected as it sharply reversed back towards $1,265. Short-term trend remains bullish as price is making higher highs and higher lows but the wedge pattern formation implies that we should soon see a strong pull back at least towards $1,250.

analytics5a3b6851cc5cb.png

Blue lines - bearish wedge pattern

Gold price has broken out and above the Ichimoku cloud. A back test of the broken cloud resistance should now follow. Thus a pull back towards $1,255 cloud support is my minimum expectation. Resistance is at $1,270. Support is at $1,255-50 and next at $1,220-$1,200.

analytics5a3b68a55fee2.png

On a daily basis Gold price has hit the daily Kijun-sen (yellow line indicator). Price is showing rejection signs. Daily support is at $1,250. Daily trend remains bearish as price is still below the daily Kumo (cloud). Next important resistance on a daily basis is at $1,280. I remain bearish short-term.The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Technical analysis of EUR/USD for Dec 21, 2017

EURUSD.jpg

When the European market opens, some economic data will be released such as Consumer Confidence. On the US dollar's front, the US will release a series of macroeconomic reports such as Natural Gas Storage, CB Leading Index m/m, HPI m/m, Final GDP Price Index q/q, Philly Fed Manufacturing Index, Unemployment Claims, and Final GDP q/q. So amid the reports, EUR/USD will move with low to medium volatility during this day.

TODAY'S TECHNICAL LEVELS:

Breakout BUY Level: 1.1930.

Strong Resistance: 1.1923.

Original Resistance: 1.1912.

Inner Sell Area: 1.1901.

Target Inner Area: 1.1873.

Inner Buy Area: 1.1845.

Original Support: 1.1834.

Strong Support: 1.1823.

Breakout SELL Level: 1.1816.

Disclaimer: Trading Forex (foreign exchange) on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Technical analysis of USD/JPY for Dec 21, 2017

USDJPY.jpg

In Asia, the Bank of Japan will announce its Policy Rate decision and make a Monetary Policy Statement. The US will present a series of economic reports such as Natural Gas Storage, CB Leading Index m/m, HPI m/m, Final GDP Price Index q/q, Philly Fed Manufacturing Index, Unemployment Claims, and Final GDP q/q. So there is a probability the USD/JPY pair will move with low to medium volatility during this day.

TODAY'S TECHNICAL LEVELS:

Resistance 3: 113.96.

Resistance 2: 113.74.

Resistance 1: 113.51.

Support 1: 113.24.

Support 2: 113.02.

Support 3: 112.80.

Disclaimer: Trading Forex (foreign exchange) on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Elliott wave analysis of EUR/NZD for December 21, 2017

analytics5a3b3d8c2477b.png

Wave Summary:

EUR/NZD has rallied nicely. Support is now seen at 1.6865, which ideally will protect the downside for the next impulsive rally higher towards at least 1.7389 and likely even closer to 1.7513 in wave iii of (v).

R3: 1.7064

R2: 1.7000

R1: 1.6969

Pivot: 1.6905

S1: 1.6865

S2: 1.6822

S3: 1.6802

Trading recommendation:

We are long EUR from 1.6873 with stop placed at 1.6795

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Elliott wave analysis of EUR/JPY for December 21, 2017

analytics5a3b3b792dee3.png

Wave summary:

The break above resistance at 134.50 told us that wave (D) still is developing and more upside towards the "old" 137.37 target should be expected to complete wave (D) and set the stage for the final decline within the huge triangle consolidation, that has been developing since July 2008.

Support is now seen at 134.40 and again at 133.84. The later should be able to protect the downside for more upside closer to 137.37.

R3: 136.05

R2: 135.75

R1: 134.90

Pivot: 134.40

S1: 133.84

S2: 133.57

S3: 133.24

Trading recommendation:

We will buy EUR at 134.10 and place our stop at 133.40.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

USD/CHF right on major support, remain bullish

The price is starting to bounce nicely off our major support area starting from 0.9843 (Fibonacci retracement, Fibonacci extension, horizontal swing low support, bullish price action) and we expect a further bounce up to at least 0.9924 resistance (Fibonacci retracement, horizontal swing high resistance).

Stochastic (34,3,1) is seeing a nice bounce above 3.4% support and has good upside potential.

Buy above 0.9834. Stop loss is at 0.9787. Take profit is at 0.9924.

analytics5a3b1f160cb16.png

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

AUD/USD reversing nicely, remain bearish

The price is reversing nicely below our major resistance level at 0.7698 (Fibonacci retracement, horizontal swing high resistance) and we remain bearish below this level for a push down to at least 0.7537 support (Fibonacci retracement, horizontal overlap support).

Stochastic (34,3,1) is seeing a nice drop from our 97% resistance level and has good downside potential for our drop.

Sell below 0.7698. Stop loss is at 0.7751. Take profit is at 0.7537.

analytics5a3b1ee245e16.png

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Daily analysis of major pairs for December 21, 2017

EUR/USD: The bullish signal on the EUR/USD has become stronger. The EMA 11 has gone above the EMA 56, and the Williams' % Range period 20 remains in the overbought region, indicating a strong bullish momentum in the market. A further northward journey is a clear possibility.

1.png

USD/CHF: This currency trading instrument has been consolidating so far this week. There is a great resistance level at 1.0000, and bullish machinations may not push the price above that resistance level. This means that when a breakout does occur, it would most probably favor bears.

2.png

GBP/USD: This market is consolidating at best, and there is no directional, perpetual movement at the present. There are visible boundaries at the distribution territory at 1.3450 and the accumulation territory at 1.3300. In addition, some fundamental figures are expected today and they can have an impact on the market.

3.png

USD/JPY: Just like its EUR/JPY counterpart, the USD/JPY has also generated a bullish signal, which, though, is not as strong as that of EUR/JPY. There also a Bullish Confirmation Pattern in the market (the EMA 11 is above the EMA 56, and the RSI period 14 is above the level 50). The next targets are the supply levels at 113.50 and 114.00.

4.png

EUR/JPY: The EUR/JPY has gained about 230 pips this week. This strong bullish movement has created a strong Bullish Confirmation Pattern in the market, and there is much room for price to go further upwards. Price is currently above the demand zone at 134.50 and it may soon reach the supply zones at 135.00 and 135.50.

5.png

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Daily analysis of USDX for December 21, 2017

The index remains supported by the 93.30 level and waits for a fresh catalyst that decides the next path for the short-term. The 200 SMA at the H1 chart is providing the path to USDX and it seems we can expect further bearish moves. If that level gives up, it's likely to see a decline towards the 92.83 level. MACD indicator is in the positive territory, favoring to the bulls.

USDXH1.png

H1 chart's resistance levels: 94.09 / 94.85

H1 chart's support levels: 93.30 / 92.83

Trading recommendations for today: Based on the H1 chart, place sell (short) orders only if the USD Index breaks with a bearish candlestick; the support level is at 93.30, take profit is at 92.83 and stop loss is at 93.76.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Daily analysis of GBP/USD for December 21, 2017

The pair continues to trade inside a narrow range around the 200 SMA at H1 chart and it's now targeting the resistance zone of 1.3444. If it manages to pierce such hurdle, the next target lies at 1.3516, at which the bears could be waiting to push lower to the GBP/USD pair. MACD indicator remains in favor of the bulls.

GBPUSDH1.png

H1 chart's resistance levels: 1.3444 / 1.3516

H1 chart's support levels: 1.3303 / 1.3234

Trading recommendations for today: Based on the H1 chart, buy (long) orders only if the GBP/USD pair breaks a bullish candlestick; the resistance level is at 1.3444, take profit is at 1.3516 and stop loss is at 1.3372.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

The Fed pardoned gold

Gold returned to the lower border of the trading range of $ 1265-1300 per ounce. This is where it has which stayed since September amid mixed dynamics of the USD index and the rates of the US debt market. Both the House of Representatives and the Senate expressed their approval of the tax reform but procedural errors caused the need for a second vote in the lower house of Congress. This factor, as well as the question in the air with the ceiling of the national debt, did not allow the US dollar to move into a large-scale offensive against competitors from the G10.

The support for precious metals was what made the Fed reluctant to raise inflation forecasts and federal funds rates at the last FOMC meeting this year. This was interpreted by investors as the Central Bank's uncertainty on whether a fiscal stimulus will force it to resort to a more aggressive monetary restriction than the futures market is currently waiting for. Prior to the meeting of the Open Market Committee, speculators actively ran out of gold, which led to a reduction in net long positions by December 12 to the lowest levels since July 25.

Dynamics of speculative positions on gold

analytics5a3a3a9cd6309.png

Source: Bloomberg.

The normalization of the balance of the Federal Reserve and an increase in the rate of federal funds contributed to an increase in the yield of treasury bonds which cannot compete with them. At the same time, as the events of December 19-20 showed, the growth in interest rates and the USD index, which did not want to go up, allowed the "bulls" of the XAU / USD to cling to important resistance. And if the profitability rose against the backdrop of the growth of analogues from Germany inspired by the announcement about an increase in the emission of local 30-year bonds by 1.5 times in 2018, the "Greenback" prefers to wait for facts on the tax reform and the ceiling of the national debt.

The market of physical assets, unfortunately, cannot throw a life ring to gold. Indian imports fell for the third month in a row. The People's Bank of China did not buy precious metals since October 2016. And bitcoin took investors to its side. So, in the US, sales of coins in November fell by 23% y / y. Practically from the beginning of the year, the indicator showed the weakest dynamics in a span of few years.

Dynamics of sales of coins by the American court

analytics5a3a3aa6d4be7.png

Source: Bloomberg.

Pressure on the position of "bulls" of the XAU / USD is improving the global economic background. While the IMF, the World Bank, and other authoritative organizations raise forecasts for world GDP growth, the ratio between gold and oil fell to the lowest level for the year. The first asset is a refuge while the second is an indicator of the health of the world economy.

Is the prospect of precious metal hopeless? I don't think so. First, in the second half of 2018, more central banks will talk about the normalization of monetary policy, which will limit the growth potential of the dollar. Secondly, the risks of correction of the S & P500 force investors to keep part of the positions in the assets-shelters.

Technically, the future fate of gold will depend on the resistance test at $ 1262-1267 per ounce. The success of the "bulls" will allow us to talk about the imminent formation of the pattern "Cheating-ejection", failure will increase the risks of implementing the target by 88.6% on the pattern of "Shark".

Gold, daily chart

analytics5a3a3ab0e33e7.png

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

The dollar awaits approval of the tax reform in the US Senate

The market is deciding whether the US economy is able to create conditions for three rate increases in 2018. In fact, this is the main reason for caution with which the bulls are on the dollar, which could not gather the strength to go on the offensive.

By the end of 2017, the recovery of the US economy has become more noticeable. The GDP growth rate is consistently higher than 3%, employment growth remains high, which looks rather surprising given the Fed's own forecasts a year ago, expecting a drop in the rate of job creation to 60, 000 to 80, 000 per month.

The optimism of small business remains record highs, with the ISM index of business activity at six-year highs.

analytics5a3a1391c691d.jpg

The main obstacle to optimistic assessments is the weak growth rate of wages. The US economy needs to create higher inflationary pressures, otherwise justification for raising rates will not be enough. Perhaps, fiscal reform will support the labor market, as reducing the tax burden for businesses can slightly increase wage growth.

On Tuesday, the lower house of Congress approved the biggest tax reform since Ronald Reagan. The bill was sent to the Senate, and in case it is passed without delays in the upper house, it can be signed by Trump immediately. The reform involves tax cuts for corporations and for 95% of citizens, which can significantly reduce the fiscal burden at all levels of the US economy and support consumer demand.

Republicans intend to dramatically strengthen the competitiveness of American corporations. The extraterritorial principle of taxation will be removed for companies operating overseas, a tax amnesty for repatriated capital, a profit tax from 35% to 20%, and an excise tax of 20% on imported goods and services.

These measures should lead to a powerful wave of repatriation of capital back to the US. According to various estimates, it can be repatriate up to $ 2.5 trillion, which will be used for large-scale infrastructure projects.

Thus, much of today will depend on consideration of fiscal reform in the Senate. Successful passage of the bill can give impetus to a new wave of strengthening the dollar.

Of course, for each barrel of honey there is also a fly in the ointment. The reform will lead to the strongest budget loss, which will be closed by the growth of public debt. At the first stage, the Trump administration intends to reduce unproductive expenditures, including a number of social programs, and several provisions of the Medicare program will be used as a cut. It is expected that the collection of taxes will increase over time as the economy becomes more productive, but if this does not happen, then the growth of the national debt against the backdrop of rising rates will lead to a multiple increase in the cost of its services, which can eventually bury all such a wonderful plan.

These fears seem to be the main deterrent to the growth of the dollar, with too many cautious comments in the view that the US economy can not cope with such a large-scale reform.

On Friday, data on personal expenses and incomes will be published in November.

analytics5a3a13a30517b.jpg

Also on Friday data on orders for durable goods will be published. If the outlook is positive, the dollar can also get support.

Thus, the dollar has three factors that can move it towards growth and provoke a rally, but only in the short-term. It will be hardest for the currency to prove an advantage against the commodity currencies, supported by another attempt of oil to update the highs, but against the European currencies the dollar is able to complete the week with a confident increase.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Bitcoin Analysis for December 20, 2017

Bitcoin has been impulsively bearish and volatile recently, taking the price towards the support area between $16,600 and $17,400. The price is currently struggling to bounce off the support area whereas the impulsive pressure of bears seemed to be quite strong this time. Since the break above $8000 price area, Bitcoin's deepest retracement is currently going on. The bearish pressure is speculated as the investors are looking for a much cheaper alternative to Bitcoin and pulling their funds out of the Bitcoin market. Bitcoin is indeed the most promising cryptocurrency and the flagship of it but the struggle seems to be very short as the upcoming trading of futures from January 2018 is expected to make the price surge much higher. As for the current scenario, BTC is trading inside the support area of $16,600 to $17,400. The confirmation of further bullish impulsive pressure is expected to hit market after the price breaks above the $18,000 with a daily close. Until price breaches the $18,000 level in the coming days, the bearish pressure is expected to continue further.

analytics5a3a82bc4af09.jpg

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com