Technical Analysis of ETH/USD for July 9, 2020:

Crypto Industry News:

Torus, a Singapore-based cryptographic key management platform, now allows users to send cryptocurrencies via social media platforms such as Twitter.

According to the latest Torus update, v1.7.2, users can now send tokens to any Twitter or GitHub account, even if the account has never used a Torus cryptographic wallet, the company said. Torus presented several transactions on Twitter, including 0.01 ETH transfers to major characters from the cryptocurrency space, such as co-founder Ethereum Vitalik Buterin, CEO Binance Changpeng Zhao and Elon Musk.

According to the announcement, the new update introduces six new login credentials for the Torus and DirectAuth wallet - a tool that allows users to manage application-specific private keys while storing them in a distributed Torus network. With the upgrade, users can now create a new Ethereum Blockchain wallet using any of their social identities, including Google, Facebook, Reddit, Twitch, Discord, AppleID, Github, LinkedIn, Twitter and Line.

The company has developed that logging to Torus using accounts such as Twitter is based on Auth0, a login service provider that integrates authentication and authorization for web, mobile and legacy applications. Auth0 acts as a proxy server that connects Torus accounts to a verifier such as Twitter or Apple.

Technical Market Outlook:

After the pull-back towards the level of $233.88, the ETH/USD pair has made another higher high at the level of $248.20, just below the supply zone located between the levels of $248.86 - $252.03. Please notice, there is another Pin Bar candle made at the top of the recent rally as well, together with more serious candlestick pattern of Shooting Star, so traders should expect as some kind of pull-back towards the levels of $235.42 and $232.20 (will now act as a local technical support for the price). The momentum is still strong and positive and supports the short-term bullish outlook.

Weekly Pivot Points:

WR3 - $241.60

WR2 - $236.80

WR1 - $229.63

Weekly Pivot - $225.04

WS1 - $218.03

WS2 - $213.12

WS3 - $205.61

Trading Recommendations:

The larger time frame trend on Ethereum remains down and as long as the level of $288 is not violated, all rallies will be treated as a counter-trend corrective moves. This is why the short positions are now more preferred. The next key technical support is seen at the level of $174.82.

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Technical Analysis of GBP/USD for July 9, 2020:

Technical Market Outlook:

The GBP/USD bulls has broken through the 61% Fibonacci retracement located at the level of 1.2597 and continued the rally towards the level of 1.2640. The next target for bulls is seen at the level of 1.2686 and 1.2747. The immediate support is now located at the level of 1.2542. The momentum is still strong and positive, but the market conditions are slowly starting to become a little overbought, so there is a risk of a local pull-back. As long as the level of 1.2640 is not violated, the short-term trend is up.

Weekly Pivot Points:

WR3 - 1.2879

WR2 - 1.2698

WR1 - 1.2610

Weekly Pivot - 1.2423

WS1 - 1.2323

WS2 - 1.2148

WS3 - 1.2056

Trading Recommendations:

On the GBP/USD pair the main trend is down, which can be confirmed by the down candles on the weekly time frame chart. The key long-term technical support has been recently violated (1.1983) and the new one is seen at the level of 1.1404. The key long-term technical resistance is seen at the level of 1.3518. Only if one of these levels is clearly violated, the main trend might reverse (1.3518) or accelerate (1.1404). The market might have done a Double Top pattern at the level of 1.2645, so the price might move even lower in the longer-term.

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Technical Analysis of EUR/USD for July 9, 2020:

Technical Market Outlook:

The Bearish Engulfing candlestick pattern at the top of the EUR/USD last rally has forced bulls to pull-back towards the technical support located at the level of 1.1300, but the retreat did not last long. The bulls have manage to push the price through the supply zone located between the levels of 1.1347 - 1.1361 and made a new local high at the level of 1.1370 (at the time of writing the analysis). This might not be the peak of the bullish rally as there is still room for the price and the momentum is not yet in overbought zone. The next target is seen at the level of 1.1406. The immediate support is located at the level of 1.1326.

Weekly Pivot Points:

WR3 - 1.2879

WR2 - 1.2698

WR1 - 1.2610

Weekly Pivot - 1.2423

WS1 - 1.2323

WS2 - 1.2148

WS3 - 1.2056

Trading Recommendations:

On the EUR/USD pair, the main long-term trend is down, but the local up trend continues. The key long-term technical support is seen at the level of 1.0336 and the key long-term technical resistance is seen at the level of 1.1540. Only if one of this levels is clearly violated, the main trend might reverse (1.1540) or accelerate (1.0336).

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Markets hope that the conflict about the Recovery Fund will be overcome (future growth of EUR/USD and GBP/USD pairs is expected)

On Wednesday, the attention of the market shifted from the impact of the coronavirus pandemic on the positive aspects associated with the recovery of the global economy.

If the US stock market somewhat revived on Wednesday, despite the increase in the number of cases in America, Europe has remained in the negative zone in the wake of skepticism about the success of the agreements on the European Recovery Fund. The meeting is expected to take place on July 18.

The existing conflict between countries regarding the issue of operation of this Fund shows that the existing contradictions may simply not allow this idea to be implemented or it will only be partially implemented, which, of course, will be a negativity for the ability of the most affected countries to rise economically from COVID-19. Judging by the statements of various European officials, the tension is only growing. Thus, Lagarde, the ECB President, lowered expectations of a successful agreement by expressing concern and lack of consensus among interested parties.

There has been a process of consolidation of major currencies paired with the dollar in the currency market for the last month. The outbreak of the COVID-19 pandemic in the United States, Brexit's problems in relations between the EU and Great Britain, as well as the continuation of the recovery process of the economies leading from this point of view of the countries. Now, the high probability of the failure of the EU summit to confirm the work of the Recovery Fund, in addition to the multi-directional forces that have been consolidating recently, may again return the main currency pairs to a sideways trend, interrupting the probability of certain trends forming.

The uncertainty factor seems to continue to reign in the markets in the near future. Only the news about the beginning of a really working coronavirus vaccine can radically change the situation. In this case, the balance will begin to tilt towards the factor of restoring economic activity in the world,which will be the strongest signal of the start of a global perspective weakening of the US dollar. In this case, all the reasons that play against it will start to work: the most powerful stimulus programs from the Federal Reserve and the US Treasury, the fall in general interest in the dollar as a safe haven currency, as well as the resumption of demand for company shares.

We believe that during the current month, the current overall market picture will continue with possible local shots of the dollar up or down, primarily on the wave of information leads, and not economic statistics.

Forecast of the day:

The EUR/USD pair broke out of the range 1.1165-1.1350. Investors hope that the issue about the Recovery Fund at the EU summit will still end positively. Price consolidating above the level of 1.1350 will allow it to continue to grow first to 1.1420 and then to 1.1500.

The GBP/USD pair broke out of the range 1.21345-1.2540, thereby opening the way to the levels of 1.2690 and 1.2800.

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Hot forecast and trading recommendations for EUR/USD on July 9, 2020

Macroeconomic data was not released yesterday, and ideally, the market should have just stood still. And that's exactly what happened until the Federal Reserve intervened towards the end of the trading day. The US central bank in the form of Raphael Bostic greatly frightened market participants. The head of the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta said that the pace of recovery in economic activity is significantly lower than what the Fed expected, and this could force the US central bank to expand measures to stimulate the economy. But these stimulus measures can only be a reduction in the refinancing rate or a full-fledged quantitative easing. In fact, the Fed has no other options. And given that the refinancing rate is already at zero, turning to the printing press is the only way. This is not pleasing to investors, so the dollar confidently began to lose its positions.

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At least some macroeconomic data will be published today. Which should confirm the words of Raphael Bostic. Yes, the number of applications for unemployment benefits should continue to decline. In particular, the number of initial applications from 1,427,000 to 1,380,000, and repeated applications from 19,290,000 to 19,200,000. Given the fact that both indicators are still several times higher than normal values, the rate of decline in the number of requests is very, very low. We can say that there is no dynamics at all. However, do not forget about technical factors, and that the euro has strengthened quite well in a very short time. This means that there is a local overbought that needs to be corrected urgently. These technical factors, along with a decrease in the number of applications for unemployment benefits, even if symbolic, can become a reason for weakening the euro.

Number of repeated applications for unemployment benefits (United States):

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From the point of view of technical analysis, we see another surge in speculative positions, on the basis of which the quote managed not only to return to the 1.1350 mark, but also to overcome it locally. In fact, we have a kind of inertial movement that can end as quickly as it appeared on the market. Relative to the key coordinates, it is worth highlighting the 1.1400/1.1440 area, which should be considered as the main resistance in the way of long positions.

Considering the trading chart in general terms (the daily period), an attempt to resume the inertia move from June 26 is recorded, but to confirm this theory, the quote needs to be pinned above the 1.1440 mark.

We can assume that the 1.1400/1.1440 area is already putting pressure on buyers, which as a result may lead to a reverse move in the direction of 1.1300-1.1260.

From the point of view of complex indicator analysis, we see that the indicators of technical instruments on the minute, hour and day periods signal a purchase by consolidating the price above the 1.1350 mark.

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Control zones for USD/CHF on 07/09/20

Yesterday, the USD/CHF pair went beyond the medium-term accumulation zone. This indicates a continuation of the bearish impulse. The nearest goal of the decline is the zone of the average weekly move, the lower border of which is located around the level of 0.9313. Working towards the strengthening of the franc is the basis for building daily trading plans.

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The pair's current decline continues the impulse started in June, which may allow holding sales for a long time.

An alternative growth option has a low probability and requires the formation of the "absorption" pattern at the daily level. Until this pattern is formed, it does not make sense to consider purchases. It is important to understand that any sale deals will bring profit in most cases, due to the strength of the bearish impulse.

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Daily CZ - daily control zone. The zone formed by important data from the futures market that changes several times a year.

Weekly CZ - weekly control zone. The zone formed by the important marks of the futures market, which change several times a year.

Monthly CZ - monthly control zone. The zone that reflects the average volatility over the past year.

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Fractal analysis of the main currency pairs for July 9th

Forecast for July 9:

Analytical review of currency pairs on the scale of H1:

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The key levels for the euro / dollar pair on the H1 scale are: 1.1467, 1.1424, 1.1393, 1.1376, 1.1349, 1.1330 and 1.1293. Here, we are following the rising structure from July 1. A short-term upward movement is expected in the range of 1.1376 - 1.1393. The breakdown of the last level will lead to a movement to the level of 1.1424, near which we expect consolidation. For the potential value for the top, we consider the level of 1.1467. Upon reaching which, we expect a downward pullback.

A short-term downward movement is possible in the range of 1.1349 - 1.1330. The breakdown of the last level will lead to a deeper correction. Here, the target is 1.1293. This is a key support level for the top.

The main trend is the upward structure of July 1

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 1.1376 Take profit: 1.1392

Buy: 1.1394 Take profit: 1.1422

Sell: 1.1349 Take profit: 1.1331

Sell: 1.1328 Take profit: 1.1295

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The key levels for the pound / dollar pair on the H1 scale are: 1.2797, 1.2749, 1.2697, 1.2643, 1.2597, 1.2557 and 1.2490. Here, we are following the development of the upward cycle of June 30. The continuation of the upward movement is expected after the breakdown of the level of 1.2643. In this case, the target is 1.2697. Price consolidation is near this level. The breakdown of the level of 1.2698 will lead to movement up to 1.2749. There is a high probability of a reversal to correction from this value. For the potential value for the top, we consider the level of 1.2797.

A short-term downward movement is expected in the range of 1.2597 - 1.2557. The breakdown of the last level will lead to a deeper correction. Here, the target is 1.2490. This is a key support level for the top.

The main trend is the upward structure of June 30

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 1.2644 Take profit: 1.2695

Buy: 1.2698 Take profit: 1.2747

Sell: 1.2596 Take profit: 1.2558

Sell: 1.2555 Take profit: 1.2492

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The key levels for the dollar / franc pair on the H1 scale are: 0.9434, 0.9407, 0.9389, 0.9363, 0.9346, 0.9317 and 0.9290. Here, we are watching the descending structure of June 30th. We expect a short-term downward movement, as well as consolidation in the range of 0.9363 - 0.9346. The breakdown of the level of 0.9346 should be accompanied by a pronounced downward movement. Here, the target is 0.9317. For the potential value for the bottom, we consider the level of 0.9290. Upon reaching which, we expect consolidation, as well as an upward pullback.

A short-term upward movement is expected in the range of 0.9389 - 0.9407. The breakdown of the last level will lead to a deeper correction. Here, the target is 0.9434. This is a key support level for the bottom.

The main trend is the downward structure of June 30

Trading recommendations:

Buy : 0.9390 Take profit: 0.9406

Buy : 0.9408 Take profit: 0.9432

Sell: 0.9363 Take profit: 0.9346

Sell: 0.9344 Take profit: 0.9318

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The key levels for the dollar / yen pair on the scale are : 108.19, 107.88, 107.57, 107.37, 107.04, 106.71, 106.52 and 106.20. Here, we follow the descending structure of July 1 as the main structure. The continuation of the downward movement is expected after the breakdown of the level of 107.04. In this case, the target is 106.71. Price consolidation is in the range of 106.71 - 106.52. We consider the level 106.20 to be a potential value for the bottom; upon reaching this level, we expect an upward pullback.

A short-term upward movement is possible in the range of 107.37 - 107.57. The breakdown of the last value will lead to a deeper movement. Here, the target is 107.88. This is a key support level for the downward structure and the price passing this level will lead to the formation of initial conditions for the top. In this case, the potential target - 108.19.

The main trend is the descending structure of July 1

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 107.37 Take profit: 107.55

Buy : 107.58 Take profit: 107.85

Sell: 107.04 Take profit: 106.73

Sell: 106.69 Take profit: 106.54

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The key levels for the Canadian dollar / US dollar pair on the H1 scale are: 1.3622, 1.3559, 1.3528, 1.3479, 1.3442, 1.3393, 1.3357 and 1.3309. Here, we identified from the local descending structure on July 8th as the subsequent goals for the bottom. A short-term downward movement is expected in the range of 1.3479 - 1.3442. The breakdown of the last value should be accompanied by a pronounced downward movement. Here, the target is 1.3393. Price consolidation is in the range of 1.3393 - 1.3357. For the potential value for the bottom, we consider the level of 1.3309. Upon reaching which, we expect an upward pullback.

A short-term upward movement is possible in the range of 1.3528 - 1.3559. The breakdown of the last level will favor the formation of an upward structure. Here, the potential target is 1.3622.

The main trend is the local descending structure of July 8

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 1.3528 Take profit: 1.3557

Buy : 1.3561 Take profit: 1.3620

Sell: 1.3479 Take profit: 1.3444

Sell: 1.3440 Take profit: 1.3395

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The key levels for the Australian dollar / dollar pair on the H1 scale are : 0.7095, 0.7056, 0.7037, 0.7008, 0.6986, 0.6953, 0.6933 and 0.6898. Here, we follow the upward cycle of June 30. A short-term upward movement is expected in the range 0.6986 - 0.7008. The breakdown of the last level should be accompanied by a pronounced upward movement. Here, the target is 0.7037. Price consolidation is in the range of 0.7037 - 0.7056, and hence, the probability of a downward turn is high. For the potential value for the top, we consider the level of 0.7095. Upon reaching which, we expect a downward pullback.

A consolidated movement is possible in the range 0.6953 - 0.6933. The breakdown of the last level will lead to a deeper correction. Here, the target is 0.6898. This is a key support level for the top.

The main trend is the upward cycle of June 30, the correction stage

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 0.6987 Take profit: 0.7006

Buy: 0.7010 Take profit: 0.7037

Sell : 0.6953 Take profit : 0.6935

Sell: 0.6932 Take profit: 0.6900

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The key levels for the euro / yen pair on the H1 scale are: 123.45, 122.91, 122.47, 121.87, 121.66, 121.22, 120.94, 120.51 and 120.12. A short-term upward movement in the range of 121.66 - 121.87 is expected. The breakdown of the last level will lead to a pronounced upward movement. Here, the target is 122.47. Price consolidation is near this level. Its breakdown will allow you to expect movement to the level of 122.91. There is a high probability of a downward turn from this value. For the potential value for the top, we consider the level of 123.45. Upon reaching which, we expect consolidation, as well as a downward pullback.

A short-term downward movement is possible in the range of 121.22 - 120.94. The breakdown of the last level will lead to a deeper movement. Here, the target is 120.51. This is a key support level for the top and its breakdown will lead to the formation of a downward structure. In this case, the potential target is 120.12.

The main trend is the local upward structure of June 26

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 121.88 Take profit: 122.45

Buy: 122.49 Take profit: 122.90

Sell: 121.20 Take profit: 120.95

Sell: 120.92 Take profit: 120.55

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The key levels for the pound / yen pair on the H1 scale are : 137.13, 136.73, 135.98, 135.49, 134.68, 134.33 and 133.77. Here, we are following the development of the ascending structure of June 29. We expect a short-term upward movement in the range of 135.49 - 135.98. The breakdown of the last level will lead to a pronounced upward movement. Here, the target is 136.73. For the potential value for the top, we consider the level 137.13. Upon reaching which, we expect consolidation, as well as a downward pullback.

A short-term downward movement in the range 134.68 - 134.33 is expected. The breakdown of the last level will lead to a deeper correction. Here, the target is 133.77. This is a key support level for the top.

The main trend is the upward structure of June 29

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 135.50 Take profit: 135.96

Buy: 136.00 Take profit: 136.70

Sell: 134.67 Take profit: 134.33

Sell: 134.31 Take profit: 133.78

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Dollar knockout: anti-record reported in the United States

61,000: this figure crippled the dollar's position during the Asian session on Thursday. We are talking about a daily increase in the number of people infected with coronavirus in the United States. This is a new and absolute anti-record for the entire period of the pandemic. This is even higher compared to April, which was when the epidemic was at its peak, the highest increase per day was 57,000. This sad indicator has now crossed a psychologically important line, putting strong pressure on the US currency. The dollar index slumped to 96.2, reflecting greenback sell-offs across the market.

It is obvious that the situation is getting worse almost every day, and the trend itself indicates signs of a second wave of the epidemic in the country. For example, if the daily growth of infected people in the United States fluctuated in the range of 15-25,000 through June 8-24, then this indicator began to show a stable upward trend from June 24, initially exceeding 30,000 and then the 40,000 mark. More than 45,000 cases were registered in the United States every day at the very beginning of July, and then this figure exceeded the 50,000 mark (55-57,000 cases per day).

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The number of COVID-19 infected increased by 61,848 people over the past day. The most cases of infection were registered in Texas at 10,199 cases. In the state of Florida, 9,989 people were sick, while 8,561 were infected in California. In addition, authorities in California and Texas also reported a record one-day increase in deaths.

The figures speak for themselves. The chief epidemiologist of the United States announced the alarm at the beginning of last week: he warned that the country "lost control" of the epidemic. According to his estimates, if the current dynamics continue, America will soon face a 100,000 per day increase in infection. And judging by the dynamics of recent days, his words sound plausible.

At the same time, US President Donald Trump still shows equanimity and some detachment from the latest trends, linking the increase in the number of cases with the increase in the number of tests performed. Moreover, he considers calls for a second lockdown in a political context as machinations of the Democrats. The fact is that the coronavirus crisis has significantly shaken Trump's position in the run-up to the presidential election, which will be held in November. According to the latest polls, Joe Biden is ahead of Trump by 8-9%. This situation forces Trump to make "politically expedient" decisions that go against the epidemiological situation in the country. For example, yesterday he said that he intends to put pressure on state governors to open schools in the fall. He did not even rule out canceling school funding if they decide to follow the quarantine restrictions. According to him, in European countries – in Germany, Denmark, Norway, Sweden and many other EU countries, schools are open "and there are no problems".

Such statements by the US president may again lead to a political crisis in the country, as it was already in the spring. At that time, many governors (and not only Democrats) refused to impose strict quarantines, while Trump threatened to force them to do so almost with the help of the army. Now the situation is mirrored: many states at the local level tighten restrictive measures, while the "center", personified by Trump, demands not to cut off the oxygen to the country's economy.

It is obvious that the increase in the number of infected people will continue to put pressure on the dollar, given the current attitude of investors to the US currency. The risk of repeated lockdown scares investors, given the inevitable catastrophic consequences. The dollar bulls have one hope for restoring their positions. According to some experts, now we are seeing "echoes" of July 4 – that is, the Independence Day of the United States. Contrary to the recommendations of doctors, many Americans did not observe social distancing on this day, marking a national holiday. The incubation period of COVID-19 is (on average) about 4-5 days, and the current spike in incidence may be related to this factor.

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Therefore, the dynamics of the next few days are quite important in the context of the prospects for the US currency. If the disease rate goes down, the dollar will "return to service" - at least, it will stop its fall. Otherwise, the coronavirus factor will continue to exert strong pressure on the greenback.

If we talk about the euro-dollar pair, here we see the triumph of buyers. On the daily chart, the pair is located above the Kumo cloud of the Ichimoku indicator and above all its lines. The bullish Parade of Lines signal indicates the potential for further price growth. In addition, the pair is located on the upper line of the Bollinger Bands indicator. This also indicates bullish sentiment among traders. We can consider the 1.1422 mark as the nearest target of the upward movement – this is the local price high reached on June 10. Stop loss can be placed in the area of the first support level – this is the average line of the Bollinger Bands indicator on the same timeframe (price 1.1260).

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Elliott wave analysis of GBP/JPY for July 9, 2020

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GBP/JPY is heading towards key-resistance at 136.35. This resistance is expected to ultimately give way for a continuation towards the former peak at 139.74. Resistance will be seen at 137.30.

In the short-term, we expect support at 135.01 and more importantly support at 134.55 to be able to protect the downside for the next push higher to 136.35 and 137.30.

R3: 137.30

R2: 136.07

R1: 135.71

Pivot: 135.40

S1: 135.01

S2: 134.70

S3: 134.55

Trading recommendation:

We are long GBP/JPY from 132.85 and we will raise our stop to 134.40

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Elliott wave analysis of EUR/JPY for July 9, 2020

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Support near 121.31 gave away for a dip to the 121.10 target (the low was seen at 121.14) before the next push higher through minor resistance at 121.87. The pair rose to key-resistance at 122.11. Thus, a break above here will pave the way for an impulsive rally to the former peak at 124.43.

Resistance will be seen at 122.46 and 123.52, while support is seen at 121.87 and 121.60.

R3: 122.88

R2: 122.46

R1: 122.10

Pivot: 121.87

S1: 121.60

S2: 121.39

S3: 121.25

Trading recommendation:

We are long EUR from 119.95 and we will move our stop higher to 121.25

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GBP/USD: plan for the European session on July 9 (analysis of yesterday's trade). Pound grows after UK government allocates

To open long positions on GBP/USD, you need:

A good signal formed to sell the British pound yesterday morning after a breakout and consolidation below the support of 1.2526, however, unfortunately, continuing the downward movement did not work, which led to removing the stop and a market reversal. If you look at the 5-minute chart, you will see how the bears clung to the support of 1.2526, but then the bulls returned to the market, and after a second return to this range, they formed a good buy signal, which caused the pound to sharply grow to the resistance area of 1.2585. By the end of the day, it was also possible to observe a consolidation above this level. The technical picture has slightly changed at the moment. Bulls will fight for the resistance of 1.2625, consolidating on it will be a signal to open long positions, while expecting growth to reach a high of 1.2676 and to exit to a larger area of 1.2754, where I recommend taking profits. In case of a downward correction in the morning, you can view purchases when forming a false breakout in the support area of 1.2572, where the moving averages also pass. I advise opening long positions immediately on a rebound from the low of 1.2526, counting on a correction of 30-40 points within the day. You also need to remember that the Commitment of Traders (COT) reports for June 30 recorded another increase in short and long positions, which indicates a confrontation between buyers and sellers. The latter needs to be more active in order to return the wounds to the other side. The COT report indicates that short non-commercial positions increased from the level of 48,170 to the level of 55,414 during the week. Long non-commercial positions rose from the level of 29,654 to the level of 34,424. As a result, the non-commercial net position increased its negative value to -20,990, against -18,516.

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To open short positions on GBP/USD, you need:

News that the UK government is allocating an additional 38 billion to help companies and businesses provide support to the British pound, which disrupted all the plans of sellers, so expect a downward correction. At the moment, an important task of the bears is to protect the resistance of 1.2625, and forming a false breakout on it will be a signal to open short positions. Given that we are acting against the trend, it is best to sell after updating the larger level of 1.2676, as well as under the condition of a false breakout. Or open short positions immediately on a rebound from the resistance of 1.2754, counting on a correction of 30-40 points within the day. An equally important goal of the bears is to return support to 1.2572, where the moving averages also pass. Such a scenario will bring down the bullish momentum and cause the pound to fall to the area of 1.2526, where I recommend taking profits.

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Indicator signals:

Moving averages

Trading is conducted above the 30 and 50 moving averages, which indicates that the pound will continue to grow in the short term.

Note: the period and prices of moving averages are considered by the author on the hourly chart H1 and differ from the general definition of the classic daily moving averages on the daily chart D1.

Bollinger Bands

A break in the upper limit of the indicator around 1.2640 will lead to a larger increase in the pound. If the pair declines, the lower border of the indicator in the 1.2530 area will provide support.

Description of indicators

  • Moving average (moving average, determines the current trend by smoothing out volatility and noise). Period 50. It is marked in yellow on the chart.
  • Moving average (moving average, determines the current trend by smoothing out volatility and noise). Period 30. It is marked in green on the chart.
  • MACD indicator (Moving Average Convergence/Divergence — convergence/divergence of moving averages) Fast EMA period 12. Slow EMA period to 26. SMA period 9
  • Bollinger Bands (Bollinger Bands). Period 20
  • Non-commercial traders are speculators, such as individual traders, hedge funds, and large institutions that use the futures market for speculative purposes and meet certain requirements.
  • Long non-commercial positions represent the total long open position of non-commercial traders.
  • Short non-commercial positions represent the total short open position of non-commercial traders.
  • The total non-commercial net position is the difference between short and long positions of non-commercial traders.
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USD Index to return to consolidation area, July 09, 2020.

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On the 4-hour chart we see a Divergence between USDX and the Stochastic Oscillator. There is a potential turning point for USDX and the previous consolidation area (Orange Rectangle). This is likely to occur, if USDX does not drop and close bellow the 96.36 level.

(Disclaimer)

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Trading plan for EURUSD for July 09, 2020

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Technical outlook:

EURUSD hit swing highs around 1.1351 before pulling back overnight. The single currency pair is seen to be trading around 1.1334 at this point in writing and might reverse lower. Please note that EURO wave structure remains bearish until prices stay below the 1.1420 level. Immediate resistance is 1.1420, while support is around 1.1266 respectively. Also note that EURUSD is re-testing the Fibonacci 0.618 retracement of the drop between 1.1420 and 1.1167. A bearish bounce remains possible from current levels. The downside targets are 1.1068 and 1.1008 respectively. Trading point of view, traders may open short deals with risk above 1.1420.

Trading plan:

Remain short, stop @ 1.1420, target @ 1.1008

Good luck!

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EUR/USD: plan for the European session on July 9 (analysis of yesterday's trade). Bulls break highs and continue the trend.

To open long positions on EUR/USD, you need:

The euro continued to strengthen its position, having picked up to weekly highs, amid the lack of important fundamental statistics and several unsuccessful attempts by the bears to regain the level of 1.1267, the breakout of which is only a matter of time. There were several signals to enter the market yesterday. If you look at the 5-minute chart, you will see how several false breakouts, one of them I paid attention to in the forecast for the second half of the day, led to forming a good signal to buy the euro. The breakout of the resistance of 1.1305 passed without problems and the growth stopped in the area of 1.1345, from where I recommended opening short positions immediately on the rebound, which happened. At the moment, the bulls are focused on the breakout of the resistance of 1.1345, consolidating on which will be an excellent signal to buy the euro in the expectation of continuing the bull market and updating the new highs of 1.1381 and 1.1418, where I recommend taking profits. In the scenario of a decline in EUR/USD in the first half of the day, and since we don't expect important fundamental data today, it is best to look at purchases after updating the support of 1.1305 and form a false breakout there. There are also moving averages, which is an additional level of support. If there is no bull activity at this level, you can buy the euro immediately for a rebound from the low of 1.1267, counting on a correction of 25-30 points. Let me remind you that the Commitment of Traders (COT) reports for June 30 recorded an increase in short positions and a sharp reduction in long ones. This indicates that market participants are taking a more cautious approach to the euro last week, as well as the lack of willingness to buy the single currency when it grows at higher prices. The report shows an increase in short non-commercial positions from the level of 72,368 to the level of 81,432, while long non-commercial positions decreased from the level of 190,816 to the level of 180,387. As a result, the positive non-commercial net position decreased to 98,955, against 118,448, which indicates a slowdown in the growth of interest in purchasing risky assets at current prices. Therefore, if there is no rapid growth above the weekly highs, it is better not to rush to open long positions, but wait for a downward correction.

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To open short positions on EUR/USD, you need:

Sellers are not very happy with what is happening in the market. The primary task for today is to keep the 1.1345 resistance, its breakout will cause the euro to rapidly grow against the background of the demolition of a number of stop orders of bears. Therefore, forming a false breakout at the level of 1.1345 will be a signal to open short positions. Similarly, you need to act in the case EUR/USD grows to the resistance of 1.1381, but you can sell immediately for a rebound after updating the larger resistance of 1.1418, counting on a correction of 20-25 points against the trend. An equally important task for the bears is to return the euro to the support of 1.1305, since its breakout will push the pair to the lower border of 1.1267, where I recommend taking profits. The Eurogroup will hold a meeting today where Brexit issues will be discussed, but the more important point is that the European Commission will propose a plan to help the eurozone, the approval of which can strengthen the euro's position.

Indicator signals:

Moving averages

Trading is conducted above 30 and 50 moving averages, which indicates the continuation of bullish momentum.

Note: the period and prices of moving averages are considered by the author on the hourly chart H1 and differ from the general definition of the classic daily moving averages on the daily chart D1.

Bollinger Bands

If the pair declines, the lower border of the indicator around 1.1275 will provide support.

Description of indicators

  • Moving average (moving average, determines the current trend by smoothing out volatility and noise). Period 50. It is marked in yellow on the chart.
  • Moving average (moving average, determines the current trend by smoothing out volatility and noise). Period 30. It is marked in green on the chart.
  • MACD indicator (Moving Average Convergence/Divergence — convergence/divergence of moving averages) Fast EMA period 12. Slow EMA period to 26. SMA period 9
  • Bollinger Bands (Bollinger Bands). Period 20
  • Non-commercial traders are speculators, such as individual traders, hedge funds, and large institutions that use the futures market for speculative purposes and meet certain requirements.
  • Long non-commercial positions represent the total long open position of non-commercial traders.
  • Short non-commercial positions represent the total short open position of non-commercial traders.
  • The total non-commercial net position is the difference between short and long positions of non-commercial traders.
The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Forecast for GBP/USD on July 9, 2020

GBP/USD

The British pound took full advantage of the dollar's weakness yesterday and showed an increase of 66 points. As usual, the price was supported by the balance line on the daily chart (red indicator). There are less than 40 points left to reach the first target level of 1.2645. The level is strong, the market could not overcome it on April 14 and 30 (check marks). Success will allow the price to grow to the Fibonacci level of 100.0% at the price of 1.2725.

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The price develops above the balance and MACD indicator lines on the four-hour chart. A divergence is outlined for the Marlin oscillator, but it is not ready yet, so its formation is marked by a dashed line.

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As a result, it is quite possible to reverse the price from the nearest target of 1.2645. But it is impossible to determine how deep this reversal will be – a very powerful growing sentiment formed on the daily chart, breaking it will require a lot of effort from the pound, perhaps the only factor that can do this is if Brexit negotiations failed. While we are waiting for a correction to the Fibonacci level of 123.6% at the price of 1.2540.

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Forecast for EUR/USD on July 9, 2020

EUR/USD

The euro confirmed its intention to form a new local high yesterday, above June 10 at 1.1420, and thereby form a divergence with the Marlin oscillator. The signal line of this indicator entered the positive trend zone. We are waiting for the price in the target range of 1.1420/65. Overcoming it can raise the price even higher, to the target level of 1.1560.

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The price is gathering new strength before taking the intermediate level of 1.1353 on the four-hour chart. The Marlin oscillator turned around from the border with the territory of the bears, the growth of Marlin is strong, the price is higher than the balance and MACD indicator lines. Most likely the resistance will be overcome.

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USDCAD reversing off 1st resistance, more downside!

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Trading Recommendation

Entry: 1.3523

Reason for Entry: Horizontal overlap resistance

Take Profit :1.3437

Reason for Take Profit: 61.8 fib extension

Stop Loss:1.3559

Reason for Stop loss: Horizontal swing high resistance

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Forecast for AUD/USD on July 9, 2020

AUD/USD

The Australian dollar attacked the signal level of 0.6979 on Wednesday before attacking 0.7080. Our plan remains: the price will reach the target range of 0.7190-0.7225, form a triple divergence with the Marlin oscillator and turn into a medium-term decline.

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The price is slightly below the control level of 0.6979 on the four-hour chart at the moment, the Marlin oscillator is in the growing trend zone.

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The first growth target is 0.7080, breaking the level opens the way to the range of 0.7190-0.7225.

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Forecast for USD/JPY on July 9, 2020

USD/JPY

The volatile nature of the stock market pushed the USD/JPY pair by 25 points on Wednesday. The price is back under the balance indicator line on the daily chart. The US market still closed in the same territory; S&P 500 0.78%, Russell 2000 0.41%, this growth is supported today on Asian markets: Nikkei 225 0.32%, Kospi SEU 0.61%. The dollar has every chance to continue strengthening, and the price will once again attack the resistance of 107.77. Overcoming the level will open the second goal of 108.38.

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It is much more difficult to develop a downward movement for the price – the support for the embedded price channel line at 107.02 is at the bottom, and the support for the MACD line is just below it.

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The MACD line (indicator blue) kept the price from growing on the four-hour chart, the Marlin oscillator is in the negative zone, the price needs to grow above 107.50 so that the price intention to take 107.77 is confirmed and at the same time technical support.

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GBPJPY holding above trendline support! Further rise expected!

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Trading Recommendation

Entry: 134.708

Reason for Entry: Moving average support, 23.6% Fibonacci retracement, ascending trendline support

Take Profit: 136.354

Reason for Take Profit: -27% Fibonacci retracement, 200% Fibonacci extension

Stop Loss: 133.710

Reason for Stop Loss: 50% Fibonacci retracement

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Hot forecast and trading signals for the EUR/USD pair on July 9. COT report. Bulls do not retreat, will not give up. Push

EUR/USD 1H

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Buyers resumed their attack on the hourly timeframe on July 8 and returned the euro/dollar pair to the resistance area of 1.1326–1.1342. And at the time of writing, this area has yet to be overcome. The bulls clearly do not want to retreat and continue to make attempts to form a new upward trend. However, now there is also an ascending channel on the buyers' side. It was formed last week. Therefore, we now have a somewhat paradoxical situation at our disposal. On the one hand, the side channel takes place and is visible to the naked eye on the higher timeframes. On the other hand, the hourly chart has a pronounced ascending channel. And not a one-day channel, but a channel that originates on June 29. We can draw the following conclusions. Buyers continue to dominate the market, but their advantage is extremely weak and it is unknown whether it will be enough to overcome the area of 1.1326–1.1342. We do not recommend buying the euro currency as long as traders have not managed to overcome this area. At the same time, if a breakout occurs, along with the ascending channel, technical factors predicting further growth will be sufficient.

EUR/USD 15M

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The lower channel of linear regression turned up on the 15-minute timeframe, but not overcoming the area of 1.1326–1.1342 can provoke a new round of corrective movement. We draw the attention of traders to the fact that the latest COT report showed a sharp reduction in the number of purchase contracts among professional traders. At the same time, the same category of traders (Commercial) actively purchased contracts for sale. Therefore, it could be assumed that their mood is changing towards a downward trend. However, we remind you that the total net position for this category of traders is now almost at +102,000. This means that Buy-contracts are 102,000 more than Sell. Moreover, it is not advised to trade on COT reports without technical support. They only show the mood of large traders.

The fundamental background for the euro/dollar pair has not changed at all in recent days. US President Donald Trump continues to work on his political rating and is going to open schools in September, despite the fact that the country is crossing the 3-million mark for coronavirus cases. Trump is going to introduce a new package of sanctions against Hong Kong and China, and has initiated the US withdrawal from the World Health Organization. None of this news could have a devastating impact on the US dollar. But the fact that the rate of increase in the spread of the epidemic in the United States is not decreasing, may well have a negative impact. At least we can see that sellers continue to remain "on the fence" and are in no hurry to return to the market. This means that either buyers need to get enough of their purchases and start closing them, or they need a fundamental background that will bring sellers back into the game. No high-profile macroeconomic events are planned for the last two trading days of the week in the United States and the European Union. The Eurogroup meeting may or may not provide some food for thought, since it is not a fact that the issue of a 750 billion euro recovery fund will be discussed during the meeting. And even if it is discussed, it is very unlikely that any decision will be made on it. This means that the bulls will have to push through the level of 1.1342 without the help of the foundation.

Based on all of the above, we have two trading ideas for July 9:

1) Buyers reached the area of 1.1326-1.1342 for the fourth time in the last month and again failed to close above it. Thus, we recommend buying the euro currency after overcoming this area, which will mean the continuation of the bullish trend, while aiming for the resistance levels of 1.1362 and 1.1422. Potential Take Profit is up to 80 points in this case.

2) The uptrend persists in the short term, as indicated by the upward trend channel. Thus, sellers are still waiting for their chance. Bears need to close below the channel, that is, to go below the Senkou Span B line (1.1267). In this case, the bulls will give the initiative to the bears, and we recommend selling the pair with targets at 1.1228, 1.1186 and 1.1126. The potential Take Profit in this case is from 20 to 130 points.

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Overview of the GBP/USD pair. July 9. Boris Johnson's bluff in negotiations with Brussels is not a bluff, but a deliberate

4-hour timeframe

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Technical details:

Higher linear regression channel: direction - upward.

Lower linear regression channel: direction - downward.

Moving average (20; smoothed) - upward.

CCI: 225.7567

The British pound resumed its upward movement in the second half of the past day. And since the European currency has also become more expensive, we can conclude that the basis for this movement should again be sought in the United States. However, in the last days, there is nothing supernatural in America that did not happen. Except for the "coronavirus" that continues to spread, as in a crowded minibus, and the already familiar news related to Donald Trump, nothing happened. However, there was nothing supernatural yesterday, and the pound was still getting more expensive. Thus, we still believe that most traders ignore the macroeconomic background, paying attention only to the long-term fundamental one. And it is based on these considerations that all the problems of America, current, and potential, for some time blocked the already well-worn topic of "Brexit". Plus, do not forget that the British currency is very fond of getting more expensive in recent years on rumors and speculation, which in most cases are not confirmed by anything.

Meanwhile, we believe that the key figure in the negotiation process between Brussels and London is not David Frost, but Boris Johnson. While the whole world is wondering whether Johnson's position in the negotiations is a bluff, we believe that this is a bold and slightly reckless, but not a false position of the British Prime Minister. Recall that this week, the next round of negotiations on a free trade agreement began. Not even that. London wants a free trade agreement, and Brussels wants a comprehensive agreement that will define relations between countries in all areas. Boris Johnson first said that the terms of the "transition period" would not be extended. The latest information indicated that the British Prime Minister intends to agree at the end of the summer. This week it became known that the UK, according to Johnson, is ready to trade with the European Union under the rules of the WTO, if "an agreement can not be reached". In principle, no one doubts this option. For if there is no agreement, then there will be no other option for trade relations between the Kingdom and the Alliance. The question is that all economists say with one voice that the British economy will come under another massive blow if there is no agreement. Of course, it will not collapse, but it has already been suffering from Brexit for about 4 years, plus the "coronavirus crisis" and the epidemic itself, which is unclear how it will manifest itself and what other impacts it will leave on the British and world economy. Thus, an additional blow to the British economy was not needed even before the "coronavirus epidemic", and now even more so. However, we remind you that from the very beginning of his reign, Boris Johnson was not only not against, but also for leaving the European Union without any agreements. It was this option that he pushed hard from the very beginning, but it was desperately blocked from time to time by the Parliament. Only under pressure from Parliament, Johnson had to go to negotiate a "deal", which was again blocked by Parliament, considering it not attractive enough for the UK. After the December parliamentary elections, Johnson and his supporters received full carte blanche and immediately returned to the original version, which provided for the severing of all ties with the EU. As a fallback option, Johnson leaves the option of an agreement, but only one that will benefit London. If not, then he will personally be satisfied with the option without any agreements. Thus, it is Johnson who can "swing the rights" in negotiations with the European Union, and we can only guess whether Brussels will make concessions? The latest information also says that the European Union seems to be ready to concede a little in the "fish" issue. However, this is still a rumor that has not been confirmed.

Meanwhile, the "parade of funny stories" continues in the US. Donald Trump, dissatisfied with the work of WHO in the case of "coronavirus", told the US Congress that the country is leaving the organization. However, according to the rules of the organization, the United States will be able to leave it only in a year, that is, on July 6, 2021, when the president of the country, quite possibly, will not be Trump. Naturally, the American President immediately came under criticism from the Democrats. In particular, Senator Bob Menendez wrote on Twitter: "Congress has received a message that the US President has officially withdrawn the country from the WHO. Calling Trump's response to the coronavirus pandemic chaotic and inconsistent is not enough. This decision will not protect the lives or interests of Americans, it will leave them sick and America alone." And the most interesting thing is the "cherry on the cake" - the reaction of Joseph Biden, who immediately announced via Twitter that he would return the United States to the WHO if he won the election. "Americans are safe when America participates in promoting global health. On the first day of my presidency, I will return the United States to WHO and restore our leadership on the world stage," Biden said.

Also, there was a speech by the Minister of Finance of Great Britain Rishi Sunak. He said on Wednesday that the British government has approved a 30 billion pound program that will be aimed at fighting unemployment and reducing taxes for the tourism industry. Under the plan, employers will receive 1,000 pounds for each employee who returns to work from unpaid leave caused by the coronavirus pandemic and quarantine. Also, the UK government is going to spend several billion pounds to create 350,000 temporary jobs for young people aged 18 to 24. This category of British people is called the most vulnerable in the crisis. "Young people have always borne the brunt of the economic crisis, but now they are particularly at risk as they work in the sectors most affected by the pandemic. We understand that youth unemployment has long-term consequences... and we don't want this to happen to this generation," Sunak said. It is also reported that the UK economy may shrink by 14% in 2020, which exceeds the potential losses of both the European and American economies. This is to the question that the additional blow to the economy caused by the lack of a free trade agreement with the EU is unnecessary for the British...

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The average volatility of the GBP/USD pair continues to remain stable and is currently 86 points per day. For the pound/dollar pair, this value is "average". On Thursday, July 9, thus, we expect movement within the channel, limited by the levels of 1.2524 and 1.2696. Turning the Heiken Ashi indicator downward will indicate a new round of downward correction.

Nearest support levels:

S1 – 1.2573

S2 – 1.2512

S3 – 1.2451

Nearest resistance levels:

R1 – 1.2634

R2 – 1.2695

R3 – 1.2756

Trading recommendations:

The GBP/USD pair continues its upward movement on the 4-hour timeframe. Thus, today it is recommended to stay in the purchases of the pound/dollar pair with the goals of 1.2635 and 1.2695 and keep them open until the Heiken Ashi indicator turns downward. It is recommended to sell the pair after fixing quotes below the moving average with the first goals of 1.2451 and 1.2390.

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Overview of the EUR/USD pair. July 9. "Love triangle": China-USA-UK with the center in Hong Kong. Who is right and who is

4-hour timeframe

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Technical details:

Higher linear regression channel: direction - upward.

Lower linear regression channel: direction - sideways.

Moving average (20; smoothed) - upward.

CCI: 159.1110

The EUR/USD currency pair spent the third trading day of the week in absolutely calm trading. The pair's quotes fell to the moving average line the day before, so yesterday there was a question: will the moving average be overcome or will there be a rebound? Second option. Thus, the pair can now return to the Murray level of "5/8"-1.1353, which it has tested for strength three times already and which remains the approximate upper limit of the side channel in which the pair has been trading for several weeks. We believe that until this level is overcome, it will be difficult for buyers and the euro currency to expect anything more than they have now. At the same time, the fundamental background remains extremely contradictory. There are a lot of important topics now, but it is unclear what traders are paying attention to, and whether they are paying attention at all. Thus, as before, we recommend that you first pay attention to technical factors.

On Wednesday, July 8, no important macroeconomic statistics were published either in the United States or in the European Union. Thus, absolutely nothing affected the movement of the currency pair. However, the huge mass of important topics that can potentially affect the currency market and the entire world economy, does not allow traders to relax and trade on pure "technology". One of these topics is the confrontation between China and the United States. Superpowers, like ordinary states, constantly compete with each other. This principle is the basis of the entire universe. It is a competition that provokes growth and development. This is not surprising. It is not surprising that the government of each country is always guided by its interests in foreign policy. Thus, even the absurd decisions of Donald Trump, of which we have seen a huge number over the past 4 years, are by and large absolutely "normal" for the United States. There was always only one problem. If a particular power, its government, or its leader was too much "buried" in the promotion of their interests and spat on the interests of others, then there was almost always a counteracting force. If we were living in the 18th or 19th century, there would probably be a war between the United States and China. However, now the 21st century and everyone understands perfectly well that there are no winners in any war, and while there will be recovery from destruction, other states will take the first roles in the world. Therefore, the war is simply not profitable for anyone, and there are no good reasons for it to start. But there is a constant conflict of interests. Donald Trump started a trade war with China, as a result, it was from China that the "coronavirus" broke out, which easily brought the world economy to its knees. While European countries managed to stop the spread of the epidemic and localize the foci, that is, to bring COVID-2019 under relative control, the situation in the United States does not change much. And now, who can say with confidence that "coronavirus" is not China's response to the US or personally to Donald Trump in the two-year trade war? Who can say for sure that the virus was not released intentionally? Who can say that the infected Chinese were not sent specifically to the United States with a very clear purpose? After all, in any country, there are special services, secret departments, state security departments, espionage departments, and so on. Everything for conducting secret activities in the international arena. Thus, as soon as there is a conflict between the major players, everyone immediately needs to strain, since everyone can get it.

Now, a new conflict is growing between China and the United States. This time because of Hong Kong. America's interests in Hong Kong are obvious. For America, Hong Kong is a window into China through which you can operate more covertly and freely, which is less monitored by the Chinese authorities. Beijing also understands this. Amid another trade conflict that could turn into a cold war, Beijing does not want Washington to have the ability to influence China from within. Thus, since July 1, the resonant law "on national security in Hong Kong" came into force, which deprives the district of autonomy from China and cancels the principle of "one country – two systems". Everything would even be good for everyone except Hong Kong, which will lose a lot of American trade preferences and become just "part of China", if half of Europe and, most importantly, the United Kingdom, which has an agreement with Beijing dated 1984, according to which Hong Kong should remain an independent state until at least 2047, and Beijing is delegated only defense and foreign affairs issues. Thus, Beijing violates the Joint Sino-British Declaration on the transfer of Hong Kong, and London immediately responded that it would make it easier for Hong Kong citizens to obtain British citizenship. Thus, in theory, up to half of the population of Hong Kong can freely leave the no longer autonomous district and move to live and work in Britain. Of course, if Beijing does not "close" the district. Naturally, such a step will cause a new storm of indignation from the world community, but Beijing has long been acting regardless of what others say, that is, it is guided solely by its interests. The United States, the United Kingdom, and others can only threaten Beijing with sanctions. However, it is not profitable for Washington to escalate relations with Beijing. This is two years ago, Trump easily started a trade war with China, now, a few months before the presidential election, it is not necessary for Trump, as retaliatory sanctions will follow or even the January trade agreement will be terminated, which will further hurt the American economy and bury the chances of Trump's re-election. In fact, in most cases, the President of the United States, who wants to stay for a second term, was re-elected. There have only been a few cases in the history of the United States where this has not happened. But Trump, who has turned half the world and half the United States against him, may just fall into the category of exceptions. But while he has not lost all chances, we believe that he will not escalate the situation in the confrontation with China.

No important macroeconomic publications are scheduled for the last two trading days of the week in the US and the European Union. The EU will only hold a meeting of the Eurogroup, in which the economic recovery fund can theoretically be discussed. Nothing else interesting is planned for the last days of the week.

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The volatility of the euro/dollar currency pair as of July 9 is 77 points and is characterized as "average". We expect the pair to move between the levels of 1.1247 and 1.1427 today. A new reversal of the Heiken Ashi indicator downwards will signal a new round of downward movement within the side channel if the level of 1.1353 is not overcome before this.

Nearest support levels:

S1 – 1.1230

S2 – 1.1108

S3 – 1.0986

Nearest resistance levels:

R1 – 1.1353

R2 – 1.1475

R3 – 1.1597

Trading recommendations:

The EUR/USD pair continues to trade near the moving average line, inside the side channel. Thus, at this time, it is recommended to trade down if traders manage to overcome the level of 1.1200, which is the approximate lower limit of the channel, with the goal of 1.1108. It is recommended to open buy orders not earlier than the Murray level of "5/8" - 1.1353 with a target of 1.1475.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com