EUR/NZD : analysis for September 24, 2015

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Overview:

Recently, EUR/NZD has been moving sideways around the level of 1.7820. In the daily time frame, we can observe a demand bar in an average volume. The intraday trend is neutral. According to the H1 chart, strong support zone is found around the levels of 1,7700-1.7790. Be careful when selling at this stage since we may expect reaction from buyers. On the other hand, resistance is seen at the level of 1.7945-1.8000. I am neutral on EUR/NZD.

Fibonacci Pivot Points :

Resistance levels:

R1: 1.7920

R2: 1.7995

R3: 1.8115

Support levels:

S1: 1.7640

S2: 1.7600

S3: 1.7480

Trading recommendations: The market is neutral. We can observe a very weak price action and neutral market around the level of 1.7800.

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Gold : analysis for September 24, 2015

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Overview:

Since our last analysis, gold has been trading upwards. As we expected, the price tested the level of $1,144.80. The intraday trend is upward. In the daily time frame, we can observe a demand bar in an average volume. In the M15 time frame, we can observe a successful test at the supply level of $1,134.00. It encouriged buyers to buy and we got nice result from the test. We got resistance at the level of $1,169.00. Watch for buying opportunities on dips.

Daily Fibonacci pivot points :

Resistance levels

R1: 1,132.20

R2: 1,133.11

R3: 1,134.60

Support levels:

S1: 1,129.20

S2: 1,128.30

S3: 1,126.50

Trading recommendations: Be careful when selling gold at this stage and watch for potential buying opportunities.

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Technical analysis of Silver for September 24, 2015

Technical outlook and chart setups:

Silver might be looking to form a base around the $14.50 levels before turning higher again. Please note that the $14.50 levels is a strong Fibonacci convergence, with a potential tendline support passing through as well. It is hence recommended to remain long for now and also look to add further positions around the $14.50 levels with risk at $14.00. Immediate support is seen at the $14.50 levels followed by $14.25, $14.00 and lower, while resistance is seen at the $15.60 levels followed by $16.40 and higher respectively.

Trading recommendations:

Remain long, stop is at $14.00, target is open.

Good luck!

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Technical analysis of Gold for September 24, 2015

Technical outlook and chart setups:

Gold is trading around the levels of $1,137.00/38.00 now, after having bounced off from $1,120.00/21.00 earlier. The metal might form a gartley and a drop towards $1,115.00/13.00 before resuming its uptrend, as shown here. It is hence recommended to book profits on long positions taken earlier and remain flat. An aggressive trade strategy would be to initiate fresh short positions (counter trend), with risk around $1,145.00/46.00. Immediate resistance is seen at $1,141.00/42.00 (interim) followed by $1,150.00, $1,170.00, and higher, while support is seen at $1,120.00 followed by $1,115.00, $1,110.00, and lower.

Trading recommendations:

Take profits on long positions. Aggressive setup is to short now, stop at $1,145.00, target $1,115.00. Then long.

Good luck!

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Technical analysis of EUR/JPY for September 24, 2015

Technical outlook and chart setups:

The EUR/JPY pair stalls around the levels of 34.75.00 pulling back at the moment. The pair has completed correction at 133.20/30 and is poised to rally towards 139.00 in the sessions to come. It is hence recommended to remain long with risk at 132.00. Immediate support is seen at the levels of 132.00, while resistance is seen at the levels of 137.00 levels, followed by 139.00, 140.00, 141.00, and higher respectively. Bulls are expected to remain in control ubtil prices stay above 132.00.

Trading recommendations:

Remain long with stop at 132.00, a target is open.

Good luck!

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Daily analysis of Silver for September 24, 2015

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Overview

According to the attached H4 chart, the silver price remains stable above the previously breached bearish channel's resistance, while it has difficulties with breaching the 14.85 barrier. It represents a good positive key that supports chances of continuing the bullish correction on the intraday and short-term basis, as the EMA50 meets the mentioned level to add more strength to it. Until now, the bullish trend scenario is still valid and active as long as the price is above the 14.65 level. Our main targets begin at 15.40 and extend to 15.85 followed by 16.30.

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Daily analysis of GBP/JPY for September 24, 2015

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Overview

Intraday bias in GBP/JPY remains on the downside for the 103.36 support. A break will extend the whole fall from 195.86 to the 174.86 support. In case of recovery, risk will now stay on the downside as long as 188.28 holds. The break of the medium-term trendline support is taken as a sign of a trend reversal. This is supported by bearish divergence condition in the weekly MACD. Besides, GBP/JPY was close to the key cluster resistance of 61.8% retracement of 251.09 to 116.83 at 199.80, which is close to 200 psychological level. A break of 174.86 will confirm the trend reversal and bring a deeper fall to 38.2% retracement of 116.83 to 195.86 at 165.67. In case of another rise, we wiill be cautious of strong resistance from 199.80/200.00 to bring a reversal finally.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 182.60; (P) 183.62; (R1) 184.34

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Technical analysis of GBP/CHF for September 24, 2015

Technical outlook and chart setups:

The GBP/CHF pair dropped below 1.4900 taking stops out. At the moment, the pair is testing an intermediary trend-line support as seen here. A break here would confirm that the pair is headed towards the levels of 1.5600 in the near term. On the flip side,we expect bullish reversal around the fibonacci supports which would bring bulls back in play. It is hence recommended to remain flat now and watch out for a reaction at current levels. Immediate support is seen at 1.5700 followed by 1.5600 and lower, while resistance is seen at 1.5100 followed by 1.5350 and higher.

Trading recommendations:

Remain flat for now.

Good luck!

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Global macro overview for 24/09/2015

Global macro overview for 24/09/2015:

Yesterday's API crude oil inventories has delivered a worse-than-expecting figure. The market expectations were -0,500k barrels, but the stockpiles shortage were bigger than -1.910k. Please notice that refineries are going into maintenance and switchover season, that will increase inventories in the weeks ahead. Nevertheless, the oil price is still relatively high and it should gradually decrease over time.

The market reaction for the news was bearish and currently the crude oil is trading close to the important support at the level of 43.19. Breakout lower will be considered bearish.

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Global macro overview for 24/09/2015

Global macro overview for 24/09/2015:

Since the FOMC meeting last week, the negative sentiment prevails in global markets. Federal Reserve Chairperson Janet Yellen will be speaking today at 9pm GMT at the University of Massachusetts, and her remarks will be closely watched by investors worldwide. Despite the clear statement of rising the rates this year, the precise date of that event is still unclear. Moreover, at the recent Fed meeting the growth and inflation's projections were all revised downwards. So, today Yellen will have be able to provide more clarity as she clearly missed to express last week.

The US dollar Index was climbing steadily after the Fed meeting, and currently it is trading just shy of the technical resistance at the level of 96.63. Any breakout higher would directly expose the golden trendline for a test.

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Technical analysis of EUR/JPY for September 24, 2015

General overview for 24/09/2015 12:30 CET

The upward rally has run out of a steam as the technical resistance at the level of 134.98 is still not broken. Currently, the golden trend line provides a dynamic support for the price, but any breakout lower will directly expose the level of 133.74 for a test.

Support/Resistnace:

134.98 - Technical Resistance

134.35 - WS1

133.74 - Intraday Support

133.46 - WS2

Trading recommendations:

Daytraders should consider opening sell orders at current levels with SL above the level of 134.70 and TP at the level of 133.75.

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Technical analysis of USD/CAD for September 24, 2015

General overview for 24/09/2015 12:20 CET

The bearish impulsive count has been invalidated due to the wave (i) and wave (ii) overlaps. Currently, the higher time frame count has been revised and updated. The main change was implementation of the alternative count wave 4 purple low at the level of 1.309. The current main count suggest more upward wave progression in the last wave up (wave 5 purple). The first projected target level for wave 5 purple is at the weekly pivot resistance at the level of 1.3451.

Support/Resistnace:

1.3451 - WR2

1.3356 - WR1

1.3354 - Swing High

1.3296 - Intraday Support.

Trading recommendations:

Daytraders should consider opening buy orders form the current market levels with SL below the level of 1.3295 and TP at the level of 1.3451.

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Technical analysis of USD/JPY for September 24, 2015

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USD/JPY is expected to trade with a bullish bias. US stocks slid further, dragged by materials and energy shares. The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 0.3% to 16279, the S&P 500 declined 0.2% to 1938, while the Nasdaq Composite dipped 0.1% to 4752. Nymex crude plunged 4.1% to $44.48 a barrel, while gold rose 0.5% to $1130 an ounce. The 10-year Treasury yield edged up to 2.144% from 2.127% at the previous session. Meanwhile the US dollar was broadly firm against most other major currencies. The pair is trading on the upside, while being supported by the 50-period intraday moving average (MA). The intraday relative strength indicator (RSI) stands above the neutrality level of 50 lacking downward momentum. The pair maintains a bullish bias and is expected to approach the first upside target at 120.55 (yesterday's high) and the second one at 121.00 (the high of September 17).

Trading recommendations:

The pair is trading above its pivot point. It is likely to trade in a wider range as long as it remains above its pivot point. As long as the price holds above its pivot point, long positions are recommended with the first target at 120.55 and the second target at 121. In the alternative scenario, short positions are recommended with the first target at 119.35 if the price moves below its pivot points. A break of this target is likely to push the pair further downwards, and one may expect the second target at 118.90. The pivot point is at 119.65.

Resistance levels: 120.55 121 121.50

Support levels: 119.35 118.90 118.20

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Technical analysis of USD/CHF for September 24, 2015

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USD/CHF is expected to trade with a bullish bias. The pair is still supported by rising 50-period MA on an intraday basis. The uptrend is solid, as the nearest support around 0.9730 should limit any attempts to move downward. Besides, the intraday RSI stands firmly above 50, gaining bullish momentum. To sum up, as long as 0.9730 (our trailing stop loss) is not broken, it is likely to advance to 0.9825 and 0.9860.

Trading recommendations:

The pair is trading above its pivot point. It is likely to trade in a wider range as long as it remains above its pivot point. As long as the price holds above its pivot point, long positions are recommended with the first target at 0.9825 and the second target at 0.9860. In the alternative scenario, short positions are recommended with the first target at 0.9675 if the price moves below its pivot points. A break of this target is likely to push the pair further downwards, and one may expect the second target at 0.9640. The pivot point is at 0.9730.

Resistance levels: 0.9825 0.9860 0.9910

Support levels: 0.9675 0.9640 0.9600

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Technical analysis of NZD/USD for September 24, 2015

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NZD/USD is expected to trade with a bearish bias as key resistance is seen at 0.6305. The pair remains depressed by key resistance at 0.6305, which maintains strong selling pressure. The intraday trend is clear on the downside, as the process of reaching lower highs and lows remains intact. Furthermore, the intraday 20-period and 50-period MAs are still heading downward. Hence, as long as 0.6305 is not surpassed, look for further decline to 0.6260 (the previous swing low). A new pullback to 0.6235 is expecte in case of a breakout.

Trading recommendations:

The pair is trading below its pivot point. It is likely to trade in a lower range as long as it remains below the pivot point. Short positions are recommended with the first target at 0.6260. A break of that target will move the pair further downwards to 0.6235. The pivot point stands at 0.6305. In case the price moves in the opposite direction and bounces back from the support level, it will move above its pivot point. It is likely to move further to the upside. According to that scenario, long positions are recommended with the first target at 0.6330 and the second target at 0.6360.

Resistance levels: 0.6330 0.6360 0.6415

Support levels: 0.6260 0.6235 0.6200

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Technical analysis of GBP/JPY for September 24, 2015

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GBP/JPY is expected to trade in a lower range as the pair is under pressure now. The pair is consolidating below its 20-period and 50-period MAs. A further decline is expected. The downside prevails, as long as the nearest key resistance at 184.15 holds on the upside. Furthermore, the intraday RSI is negative below its neutrality area of 50. Therefore, our next down targets are set at 182.60 and 182 (Fibonacci projection).

Trading recommendations:

The pair is trading below its pivot point. It is likely to trade in a lower range as long as it remains below the pivot point. Short positions are recommended with the first target at 182.60. A breakout of that target will move the pair further downwards to 182. The pivot point stands at 184.15. In case the price moves in the opposite direction and bounces back from the support level, it will move above its pivot point. It is likely to move further to the upside. According to that scenario, long positions are recommended with the first target at 184.95 and the second target at 186.

Resistance levels: 184.95 186 186.75

Support levels: 182.60 182.00 181.35

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Technical analysis of GBP/USD for September 24, 2015

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Trading recommandations:

  • According to the previous events, the GBP/USD pair has still been trapped between 1.5335 and 1.5176. The level of 1.5335 represents strong resistance. Also, it should be noted that the price of 1.6841 is coinciding with support, which was broken yesterday. The minor support has set at the level of 1.5220 and the weekly support 2 sets at the price of 1.5176. Consequently, we expect a range about 177 pips from now to the 25th of September 2015 . Therefore, the market is going to call for a downtrend from the level of 1.5323. So, sell below the level of 1.5323 in the long term with the first target at 1.5220. If the trend manages to break the double bottom, it might resume to 1.5176.

Observations:

  • Major support will set at 1.5176.
  • The level of 1.5272 represents the daily pivot point.
  • Major resistance has already set at the level of 1.5353.
  • According to our statistics, it found that the range was between 160 pips and 248 pips and the average range was around 204 pips.
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Technical analysis of EUR/USD for September 24, 2015

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Overview:

  • The EUR/USD pair brake out resistance and turned support around the level of 1.1104. Therefore, the pair has already formed strong support at the level of 1.1104. Also it should be noted that minor support was found at the level of 1.1104. The same level represents the double bottom on the H1 chart. Moreover, after it failed to close below these levels and the pair started indicating bullish market in this area. Moreover, the RSI and last strong support (around the double bottom at 1.1104) are still calling for an uptrend at this spot. So, the pair will call for upside momentum rather convincing and the structure of a rise does not look corrective, in order to indicate the bullish opportunity above the level of 1.1150. For that, it will be a good sign to buy at 1.1150 with the first target at 1.1282. It will continue its bullish rally towards 1.1324 (the weekly pivot point). The ratio of 61.8% Fibonacci retracement levels is coinciding with 1.1324. However, the price is going to move between 1.1150 and 1.1324; for that, we expect a range of 174 pips in coming hours.
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USDX technical analysis for September 24, 2015

The US Dollar Index got rejected at the previous high horizontal resistance as we expected and is pulling back now. The price is likely to move towards 95.25.

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Green line - resistance (broken)

Red line - previous high horizontal resistance

The US Dollar Index is pulling back after being rejected at the previous resistance. I expect the pullback to test the Ichimoku cloud and to move, why not, a bit lower towards the kijun-sen support. I prefer to wait in order to enter a long position when this pullback reached my targets.

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Red line - resistance

Green line -support

The weekly chart remains inside the bullish flag pattern. The price is also above the weekly cloud support. It is testing the weekly kijun-sen resistance and we would probably will see a rejection soon. Breaking above this level will push the price towards the red trend-line resistance near 97.50.

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Gold technical analysis for September 24, 2015

Gold price remains supported in the short term. A trend remains bullish with its first short-term target at the resistance level of $1,150. As long as the price trades above $1,120, bulls remain in control of the short-term trend.

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Green lines - triangle pattern

Gold price is trading above the Ichimoku cloud and inside the bigger triangle pattern. Strong resistance is found at $1,150 by the upper triangle boundary. Support is seen at $1,120. If it gets broken, we could see a pullback towards $1,100 where the lower triangle boundary is found.

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The weekly chart remains supported above the tenkan-sen support (red line indicator). I believe we will test the kijun-sen resistance (yellow-line indicator). A weekly close above the kijun-sen can push the price even towards the cloud at $1,200.The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Daily analysis of major pairs for September 24, 2015

EUR/USD: This week, the EUR/USD pair fell by 200 pips, testing the support line at 1.1100. This was followed by an upward bounce. The bounce made the price test the resistance line at 1.1200 (a rally of 100 pips in the context of a downtrend). The downtrend is still valid until the resistance line at 1.1300 is breached to the upside. Some fundamental figures are expected today and they could have an impact on the market.

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USD/CHF: This currency trading instrument continues going upwards without any major bearish correction. An upward movement is slow and steady, and the price is now at the resistance level of 0.9800, which is a formidable barrier. The chart calls for a stronger buying pressure in order to break this resistance level to the upside.

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GBP/USD: This week alone, the cable dropped by about 300 pips; ramming into the accumulation territory of 1.5250. There is now a Bullish Confirmation Pattern in the chart. The EMA 11 is below the EMA 56 and the RSI period 14 is below the level of 50. This shows that there is much more room for the bearish trend to go, though we expect occasional visible efforts from bulls.

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USD/JPY: The current equilibrium phase is not yet over in this market. This week, the price might go above the supply level at 121.50 or below the demand level at 119.00. Until that happens, this would remain an equilibrium market, with the price swinging between the aforementioned support and resistance levels.

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EUR/JPY: Just like the EUR/USD pair, this cross is also a bear market in spite of the current rally in the context of a downtrend. Only a movement above the supply level at 136.00 could render the bearish outlook invalid.

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Elliott wave analysis of EUR/NZD for September 24 - 2015

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Technical summary:

As long as resistance at 1.8000 protects the upside, we will stay open to a final decline closer to 1.7445 before the next impulsive rally takes us higher to 1.8683. Only a direct break above important resistance at 1.8000 indicates that wave ii is already over and the impulsive rally to 1.8683 is already developing.

Trading recommendation:

We have placed a EUR buy order at 1.7460 and a EUR buy order 1.8000. One order cancels the other.

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Elliott wave analysis of EUR/JPY for September 24, 2015

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Technical summary:

As we said yesterday, the closer volatility gets to the ideal bottom near 131.45 the greater it becomes and yesterday's sudden move higher to 134.69 describes this well. That said, we are still looking for more downside pressure towards an ideal target at 131.45 before a stronger rally takes place.

In the short term, we expect resistance at 134.69 to protect the upside for the next part of the decline towards 131.45. Only an unexpected break above resistance at 136.13 will indicate that a bottom is already in place.

Trading recommendation:

Our stop at 133.80 was hit for a nice profit. We will stand aside for now as the final part of the decline to 131.45 is expected to be very choppy and difficult to trade.

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Daily analysis of USDX for September 24, 2015

On the daily chart, the USDX continues to trade below the resistance level of 96.38, where a pullback is currently taking place. That is why we expect a fall to the support level of 95.83. Currently, a breakout above the level 96.38 is expected to push the index higher until new 2-month highs at least. The MACD indicator is at the positive territory.

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The index is currently performing a correction from the resistance level of 96.51 and now it is testing the support zone of 96.15. On the H1 chart, we should note a bullish pattern formation which could push the USDX higher across new highs, becauses bullish momentum seems to be still strong in an intraday basis.

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Daily chart's resistance levels: 96.38 / 96.91

Daily chart's support levels: 95.81 / 95.26

H1 chart's resistance levels: 96.35 / 96.51

H1 chart's support levels: 96.15 / 95.94

Trading recommendations for today: Based on the H1 chart, place buy (long) orders only if the US Dollar Index breaks with a bullish candlestick; the resistance level is at 96.35, take profit is at 96.51, and stop loss is at 96.19.

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Daily analysis of GBP/USD for September 24, 2015

GBP/USD is headed lower making new downside moves below the resistance level of 1.5256. It is expected to form a lower low pattern by the end of the week. Currently, our outlook remains bearish towards the support zone of 1.5169, where a rebound should happen in order to correct the current decline.

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On the H1 chart, the pair is showing a bearish consolidation in place below the 200 SMA and this indicator is also pointing to the downside. A breakout below the support level of 1.5223 will enable the pair to test the level of 1.5166 in coming hours. The MACD indicator is entering the neutral territory.

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Daily chart's resistance levels: 1.5256 / 1.5344

Daily chart's support levels: 1.5169 / 1.5030

H1 chart's resistance levels: 1.5285 / 1.5341

H1 chart's support levels: 1.5223 / 1.5166

Trading recommendations for today: Based on the H1 chart, place sell (short) orders only if the GBP/USD pair breaks a bearish candlestick; the resistance level is at 1.5223, take profit is at 1.5166, and stop loss is at 1.5283.

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