NZD/USD Intraday technical levels and trading recommendations for June 1, 2016

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On January 28, the depicted support at 0.6400 acted as a prominent key level offering a valid buy entry. The 0.6550 level was broken a few weeks ago.

Bullish persistence above 0.6550 (depicted recent support) was necessary to keep the price moving towards higher bullish targets.

During February's consolidations, the price zone of 0.6750-0.6840 constituted a significant resistance zone where signs of a bearish rejection were seen (triple-top reversal pattern).

However, on February 9, the NZD/USD pair failed to consolidate below the depicted support level at 0.6550.

In early March, temporary bullish breakouts above 0.6750 and 0.6860 were executed. That's why, these price levels stood as temporary support levels.

On May 6, daily candlestick closure below the 0.6850 level enhanced a quick bearish movement towards 0.6750 where bullish rejection was expected to be applied.

However, obvious bearish closure below 0.6750 was achieved on May 24 (bearish breakout of the depicted bullish channel).

Obvious bullish recovery was expressed around the price level of 0.6675. That's why, a recent bullish pullback is currently taking place above 0.6760.

Note that the current bullish breakout above 0.6760 invalidates the previous bearish scenario allowing a quick bullish movement to occur towards 0.6860.

On the other hand, the current price zone between 0.6760 - 0.6860 remains a significant resistance zone (corresponds to the backside of the broken channel as well).

Hence, a valid SELL entry can be offered around the current price levels. However for conservative traders, a bearish closure below 0.6760 is needed to ensure further bearish decline.

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USD/CAD intraday technical levels and trading recommendations for June 1, 2016

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On December 7, a bullish breakout above 1.3450 (upper limit of the recent consolidation range) enhanced the bullish side of the market. Hence a bullish visit to the resistance at 1.4120 (Fibonacci Expansion 100%) occurred.

Bullish persistence above 1.4150 enhanced the bullish side of the market towards 1.4650 (141.4% Fibonacci expansion) where an evident bearish rejection was expected (bearish engulfing weekly candlestick).

The 1.4120 level (Fibonacci Expansion 100%) stood as a significant resistance level where a significant bearish rejection was applied.

Although the area of 1.3050-1.3250 was expected to offer bullish support for the USD/CAD pair, the same price zone was broken as depicted on the daily chart.

Shortly after, the 1.3300 level stood as a significant resistance as it corresponds to the 50% Fibonacci level and the backside of the broken weekly uptrend where a valid sell entry was suggested on March 24.

Since then, the USD/CAD pair has been trapped within the consolidation range between 1.3300 and 1.3300 until a bearish breakout took place on April 11.

Shortly after the quick bearish decline took place below 1.3000, signs of bullish recovery were expressed around 1.2460.

The recent bullish pullback towards 1.3000 (61.8% Fibonacci level) was expected to offer a valid signal to sell the USD/CAD pair. However, a lack of significant bearish rejection was manifested during recent consolidations.

Temporary bullish fixation above 1.3000 (61.8% Fibonacci level) opened the way towards the 1.3180 level where significant bearish pressure was originated.

That's why, bearish persistence below 1.3000-1.2970 (61.8% Fibonacci level) is needed to enhance bearish momentum in the market. Initial T/P levels should be located at 1.2770 and 1.2650.

Otherwise, further bullish advancement towards the price level of 3.290 shouldn't be excluded.

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Intraday technical levels and trading recommendations for GBP/USD for June 1, 2016

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Since January 2016, bullish persistence above 1.4500 was mandatory to maintain enough bullish strength in the market.

However, the previous weekly candlesticks maintained their bearish persistence below the depicted weekly supply zone (below 1.4470) which allowed further bearish decline to occur.

The prominent demand level located at 1.3845 (historical bottom that goes back to March 2009) provided a significant bullish rejection on February 26.

As expected, an evident bullish recovery and a bullish engulfing weekly candlestick were expressed around 1.3845 (prominent weekly demand level) where a significant bullish swing was initiated on March 1.

On the other hand, the price zone of 1.4475-1.4670 has been standing as a significant supply zone during the past few weeks.

On May 3, the depicted long-term downtrend line came to meet the GBP/USD pair around the same price zone. Hence, significant bearish rejection and bearish weekly candlesticks were executed around the upper limit of it (1.4670 level).

As long as the GBP/USD pair keeps trading below 1.4670, the next bearish destinations for the pair will be located at 1.4300, 1.4220, and 1.4050.

The current bearish persistence below 1.4480 should be defended to maintain enough bearish momentum in the market.

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In February 2016, a lower high was achieved around the level of 1.4530. This applied extensive bearish pressure against the price level of 1.4470.

The GBP/USD pair looked oversold when the previous bearish decline extended below 1.4040 (temporary support). That is why, a significant bullish recovery and a profitable long entry were suggested around 1.3845.

On April 7, the market failed to push below the price level of 1.4050. Moreover, a bullish movement was executed again towards the price levels of 1.4750 (slightly above the 61.8% Fibonacci level).

As anticipated, significant bearish rejection was expressed around the price zone of 1.4700-1.4750 (61.8% Fibonacci level) resulting in a strong bearish shooting-star daily candlestick.

Daily persistence below 1.4470 was needed to enhance further bearish decline initially towards 1.4350, 1.4220 and 1.4050.

However, On May 16, lack of enough bearish momentum below 1.4330-1.4350 resulted in the current bullish breakthrough above 1.4470.

Please note that the price zone of 1.4670-1.4700 corresponded to the 61.8% Fibonacci level and the depicted downtrend line. Hence, significant bearish rejection and a valid SELL entry were suggested around these price levels. It's already running in profits now.

Daily persistence below the level of 1.4480 enhances further bearish decline towards 1.4350 and 1.4220. Otherwise, the GBP/USD pair may become trapped between the price levels of 1.4480 and 1.4700.

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Intraday technical levels and trading recommendations for EUR/USD for June 1, 2016

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In January 2015, the EUR/USD pair moved below the major demand levels near 1.2100 and 1.2000 where historical bottoms had been previously set in July 2012 and June 2010. Hence, a long-term bearish target is projected towards 0.9450.

In March 2015, the EUR/USD bears challenged the monthly demand level of 1.0570 which had been previously reached in August 1997.

Later in April 2015, a strong bullish recovery was observed around the mentioned demand level.

April's monthly candlestick came as a bullish engulfing one. However, next monthly candlesticks (September, October, and November) reflected a strong bearish rejection around the area of 1.1400-1.1500.

In February, the depicted price levels around 1.1400-1.1500 acted as a significant supply zone during the current bullish pullback.

That's why, another bearish rejection was expected around the current price levels (Note the monthly candlestick of May).

In the long-term prospect, the level of 0.9450 will remain a projected bearish target if the current monthly candlestick comes to close below the depicted monthly demand level of 1.0570.

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In December 2015, a consolidation range between 1.1000 and 1.0800 was established on the daily chart.

On February 3, a bullish breakout was executed above this consolidation range. Bullish fixation above 1.1000 was mandatory to allow bullish movement to continue.

Similar to what happened in October 2015, the supply zone of 1.1410-1.1550 constituted a significant resistance zone for the EUR/USD pair.

On May 5, the 1.1600 level corresponded to the backside of the broken uptrend line depicted on the chart where the shooting-star daily candlestick appeared, indicating significant bearish rejection.

Daily persistence below the 1.1400 level was needed to ensure enough bearish momentum towards the 1.1200 level.

As long as the EUR/USD pair keeps trading below the price level of 1.1200 (recently-broken demand level and a valid level to sell the pair), bearish decline should be expected towards 1.1100 and 1.1000 levels.

Please note that any bearish pullback towards the level of 1.1000 (the depicted uptrend line and a previous consolidation range) should be considered for a valid BUY entry. S/L should be placed below 1.0950.

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EUR/NZD analysis for June 01, 2016

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Recently, EUR/NZD has been moving downwards. The price tested the level of 1.6325 in a high volume. According to the 30M time frame, I found strong downward pressure in a high volume. Be careful when buying and watch for selling opportunities. The price failed to test resistance at the level of 1.6430, which is sign that sellers are in control. Downward targets are set at the price of 1.6325 and 1.6220.

Fibonacci Pivot Points:

Resistance levels:

R1: 1.6595

R2: 1.6645

R3: 1.6725

Support levels:

S1: 1.6430

S2: 1.6380

S3: 1.6300

Trading recommendation for today: Watch for selling opportunities on pullbacks. The trend is downward.

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Gold analysis for June 01 , 2016

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Since our previous analysis, gold has been trading upwards. The price tested the level of $1,219.70 in an average volume. According to the 30M time frame, I found an upward channel. We can observe successful testing of the upward diagonal, which is a sign that selling looks risky. I found a narrow spread of the bar and with low volume (successful test). Watch for buying opportunities. Take profit level is set at the price of $1,222.00 and $1,231.00.

Daily Fibonacci pivot points:

Resistance levels:

R1: 1,220.60

R2: 1,223.00

R3: 1,226.90

Support levels:

S1: 1,212.90

S2: 1,210.50

S3: 1,206.60

Trading recommendations for today: Be careful when selling gold and watch for buying opportunities.

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Elliott wave analysis of EUR/NZD for June 1, 2016

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Wave summary:

Once again this pair has failed miserably and broken well below important short-term support at 1.6424 invalidating the short-term bullish count. However, the larger bullish count has not been invalidated yet and it will only be so if support at 1.6104 is broken too.

As we look for the low of red wave ii, we have to remember that it is allowed to correct 100% of red wave i, but it can never ever break below the starting point at 1.6104; otherwise our count will be invalidated.

In the short term, we expect minor support at 1.6196 to be able to protect the downside for a new rally; and the price, to test important resistance at 1.6654 and confirm above it that red wave ii is in place for more upside pressure towards 1.6931 and 1.7220.

Trading recommendation:

Our stop at 1.6423 was hit for a loss. We will re-buy EUR at 1.6210 with a stop at 1.6185

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Elliott wave analysis of EUR/JPY for June 1 - 2016

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Wave summary:

Despite an unexpected large decline yesterday, we will let the bullish view have the benefit, as long as the low at 121.46 is able to protect the downside. If our count is correct then this wave [ii] is allowed to correct 100% of wave [i] without invalidating the count. However, wave [ii] can never even break below the starting point of wave [ii] and if it does, we know the count is incorrect and a new count will be necessary.

A short-term break above minor resistance at 123.32 will be needed to confirm that wave [ii] is in place for more upside pressure towards 124.19 and 124.65 on the way towards 126.47.

Important support at 121.46 should be broken to move lower towards the 118.75 - 119.15 area before a possible bottom is expected.

Trading recommendation:

Our break-even stop was hit, and we will re-buy the EUR here at 122.37 and place our stop at 121.45. The more conservative approach will be to buy a break above 123.32 and use the same stop at 121.45.

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Technical analysis of NZD/USD for June 01, 2016

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Overview:

  • The NZD/USD pair is showing signs of strength following a breakout of the highest level of 0.6730. On the H1 chart, the level of 0.6730 coincides with a daily pivot point, which is expected to act as minor support today. Since the trend is above the daily pivot, the market is still in an uptrend. But, major support is seen at the level of 0.6653. Furthermore, the trend is still showing strength above the moving average (100). Thus, the market is indicating a bullish opportunity above the above-mentioned support levels, for that the bullish outlook remains the same as long as the 100 EMA iis headed for the upside. Therefore, strong support will be found at the level of 0.6730 providing a clear signal to buy with a target seen at 0.6730. If the trend breaks the minor resistance at 0.6773, the pair will move upwards continuing the bullish trend development to the level 0.6850 in order to test the daily resistance 1. Major resistance is seen at the level of 0.6893. So, we expect a range between the levels of 0.6730 and 0.6850 - 0.6893 today.

Technical levels:

  • Resistance 2: 0.6893
  • Resistance 1: 0.6850
  • Pivot: 0.6730
  • Support 1: 0.6674
  • Support 2: 0.6653
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Technical analysis of EUR/JPY for June 01, 2016

Technical outlook and chart setups:

The EUR/JPY pair is seen to be trading at 122.40 levels for now after pulling back from lows at 122.00 levels. The pair is still stuck in the trading range between 122.00 and 124.00/50 levels respectively. Please note that it has to break out on either direction to define further trend. Hence it is recommended to remain flat for now and wait for further confirmation of a breakout. Immediate resistance is seen at 124.50 levels, while support is seen at 121.70/80 levels. A break below 121.70 levels would encourage selling while that above 124.50 levels should attract further buying. The pair remains confined within no trading range for now.

Trading recommendations:

Remain flat for now.

Good luck!

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Technical analysis of USD/CHF for June 01, 2016

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Overview:

  • The USD/CHF pair faced minor resistance at the level of 0.9954, while major resistance is seen at the level of 0.9999. Support is found at the levels of 0.9895 and 0.9866. Also, it should be noted that a daily pivot point has already set at the level of 0.9910. Equally important, the USD/CHF pair is still moving around the key level at 0.9910, which represents a daily pivot in the H4 time frame at the moment. Yesterday, the USD/CHF pair continued moving upwards from the level of 0.9895. The pair rose from the level of 0.9895 to the top around 0.9954. In consequence, the USD/CHF pair broke resistance, which turned strong support at the level of 0.9895. The level of 0.9895 is expected to act as major support today. From this point, we expect the USD/CHF pair to continue moving in the bullish trend from the support level of 0.9895 towards the target level of 0.9954. If the pair succeeds in passing through the level of 0.9954, the market will indicate the bullish opportunity above the level of 0.9954 in order to reach the second target at 0.9999. On the other hand, if a breakout happens at the support level of 0.9866, then this scenario may be invalidated.
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Daily analysis of major pairs for June 1, 2016

EUR/USD: No matter what happens on this trading instrument, the bias is bearish. There is a bearish Confirmation Pattern in the market. It would be rational to take any rally attempts as short-selling opportunities, for bears might still target the support lines at 1.1100 and 1.1050.

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USD/CHF: The USD/CHF pair consolidated yesterday. Bulls are still willing to push price northward, and there is a possibility that the resistance levels at 0.9950 and 1.0000 (a parity zone) would be tested. However, it is unlikely that the resistance level at 1.0000 would be broken to the upside, since there is also a threat from CHF, which might gain some stamina before the end of the week.

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GBP/USD: The Cable made further attempt to go upwards, but bears came in at the distribution territory of 1.4700, which was the same point at which a bullish attempt was rejected last week. From that distribution territory, the price came down by 220 pips, now below the distribution territory at 1.4500. This kind of movement has become a serious threat to the recent bullish outlook; plus a movement below the accumulation territory at 1.4400 would result in a strong bearish signal.

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USD/JPY: This pair simply moved sideways on Tuesday – in the context of a downtrend. The next targets are the supply levels at 111.50 and 112.00. Since there is a bullish signal in the market, those supply levels would be tested today or tomorrow.

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EUR/JPY: The EUR/JPY pair made some bullish attempt, but further rally was rejected at the supply zone of 124.00. Bulls made serious efforts to push the price above that supply zone, but they were overpowered by bears. However, as long as the price is above the demand zone at 122.00, a possibility of a further rally is valid.

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Technical analysis of USDX for June 1, 2016

The Dollar index remains in a bullish trend and is trading near its highs. There is still no trend reversal signal yet however Dollar bulls need to be very cautious.

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Blue lines - bullish channel

The Dollar index continues to trade inside the bullish channel and above the Kumo (cloud). Trend is bullish. Short-term support is at 95.68 and at 95.40. Breaking below these levels will open the way for 95 which is important support for the bullish trend. Resistance is found at 96 and at 96.65.

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The weekly candle is testing the weekly kijun-sen (yellow line indicator) Price is still inside the Kumo(cloud) and this is a sign to be cautious for both bulls and bears. I can see a short-term higher high but overall a corrective pull back is justified and overdue.The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Technical analysis of GBP/CHF for June 01, 2016

Technical outlook and chart setups:

The GBP/CHF pair is seen to be trading at at 1.4390 levels at this moment after reversing sharply from 1.4600 levels yesterday. Please note that the rally that begun from 1.3400 levels looks to be complete at 1.4600 levels using the principle of equality. But according to the channeling technique, maybe another high can be seen around 1.4700 levels as depicted here. Also note that fibonacci 0.618 resistance is also seen there, and hence a bearish bounce remains a high probability. Hence it is recommended to take profit on short positions taken earlier and remain flat for now. Immediate resistance is seen at 1.4600 levels, while support is seen at 1.4300 levels respectively.

Trading recommendations:

Please take profits on short positions taken earlier. Remain flat for now.

Good luck!

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Technical analysis of Gold for June 1, 2016

Gold price bounced as we expected above the short-term resistance of $1,215 and has reached $1,220. However the form of the rise continues to look corrective and this means that once this bounce is over, a new low towards $1,190 should follow.

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Black trend line - long-term resistance

Blue lines - bearish channel

Black lines - price expectation

Gold is expected to move to a new lower low towards $1,190. The upward correction can already be complete but I cannot rule out a bigger bounce towards $1,235-40 area. What looks very possible to me is a new low and then trend reversal to the upside.

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Gold continues to trade above the weekly Kumo and above the 38% Fibonacci retracement. Support is at $1,180. I believe that a big bounce will come soon once the decline from $1,295 is complete. I believe the decline is not complete yet but I will be focusing on the bullish side of Gold from now on.

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Global macro overview for 01/06/2016

Global macro overview for 01/06/2016:

Better-than-expected GDP data from Australia boosted the AUD in overnight trade. Global investors expected GDP to decrease slightly from 0.7% q/q (2.9% y/y) to 0.6% q/q (2.8% y/y), but the number revealed a strong increase to the level of 1.1% q/q (3.1% y/y). The main driver for this result was stronger-than-expected first-quarter exports data and an increasing number of building permits. In conclusion, most market participants are backing off from their conviction about another RBA rate cut at the next meeting in June.

Let's now take a look at the AUD/USD technical picture on the the daily time frame. Local resistance at the level of 0.7258 was violated after the data release, but the market is still trading below the 50 and 100 moving averages. The recent move up looks more like a corrective cycle that might even reach the level of 0.7412 before being capped.

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Global macro overview for 01/06/2016

Global macro overview for 01/06/2016:

As the national referendum in Great Britain approaches (23rd June 2016), various pools are being conducted, revealing the sentiment of British people towards the UK's participation in the eurozone. Yesterday's latest online ICM Brexit poll has revealed very confusing data as 47% of participants voted to leave the EU, while 44% participants voted to remain in the EU. It reignited concerns over a potential UK exit from the EU and has shaken those equally towering foundations. Both Footsie 100 and the British Pound suffered big losses in response to this pooled data. In conclusion, it is worth to notice that more and more pools will be published in coming days, and the market might get very volatile as most global investors are sitting on a razor's edge.

Let's now take a look at the GPB/USD technical picture on the 4H time frame. No new high has been made since the bounce from the 1.4330 bottom, so the recent move to the level of 1.4738 is labeled as a lower high for now. In order to gain more control over this market, the bears should make a new lower low just below the 1.4442 technical support level. It will be the first strong indication that the trend is reversing to the downside.

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Technical analysis of EUR/JPY for June 1, 2016

General overview for 01/06/2016:

As anticipated yesterday, the sudden price reversal after the market made the top for wave X at the level of 124.20 is a part of a three-wave downside wave progression that will eventually make a new low. The wave (a) of this internal cycle looks completed now, so it might be the time for the countertrend corrective wave (b) to unfold soon. This wave should target the level of 122.96 and then reverse again in order to complete the last wave down.

Support/Resistance:

124.85 - WR3

124.65 - Wave (b) High

124.23 - WR2

123.42 - WR1

122.96 - Intraday Resistance

122.82 - Weekly Pivot

121.99 - WS1

122.20 - Intraday Support

121.48 - Black Impulsive Count Invalidation Level

121.40 - WS2

Trading recommendations

All sell orders should be still kept open as the impulsive structure to the downside might still unfold anytime. The SL is still at the same place, above the level of 124.13.

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Technical analysis of USD/CAD for June 1, 2016

General overview for 01/06/2016:

The market made another marginal higher high after the bottom for wave ii had been reached. Nevertheless, the top of wave (i) at the level of 1.3190 still hasn't been violated. This kind of price action might suggest the corrective cycle in wave ii is still not completed, and it might evolve into a more complex and time-consuming structure. The invalidation line for this cycle is still at the level of 1.2910. The final confirmation of the bullish impulsive wave development comes with a new high above the level of 1.3190.

Support/Resistance:

1.3190 - Wave (i) High

1.3164 - WR1

1.3132 - Intraday Resistance

1.3035 - Weekly Pivot

1.2997 - Intraday Support

1.2888 - WS1

1.2836 - Green Impulsive Count Invalidation Level

1.2761 - WS2

Trading recommendations

All buy orders should be still kept open as the impulsive structure to the upside might still unfold anytime. Currently, the market is in the corrective cycle, so additional buy limit orders might be set within the buying zone between the levels of 1.3094 - 1.2997. The SL orders should be placed below the level of 1.2836.

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Technical analysis of EUR/USD for June 01, 2016

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When the European market opens, some economic news will be released such as the Final Manufacturing PMI, German Final Manufacturing PMI, French Final Manufacturing PMI, Italian Manufacturing PMI, and Spanish Manufacturing PMI. The US will release economic data too such as the Beige Book, Total Vehicle Sales, ISM Manufacturing Prices, Construction Spending m/m, ISM Manufacturing PMI, and Final Manufacturing PMI. So amid the reports, EUR/USD will move with low to medium volatility during this day.

TODAY'S TECHNICAL LEVELS:

Breakout BUY Level: 1.1186.

Strong Resistance: 1.1180.

Original Resistance: 1.1169.

Inner Sell Area: 1.1158.

Target Inner Area: 1.1132.

Inner Buy Area: 1.1106.

Original Support: 1.1095.

Strong Support: 1.1084.

Breakout SELL Level: 1.1078.

Disclaimer: Trading Forex (foreign exchange) on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.

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Technical analysis of USD/JPY for June 01, 2016

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In Asia, Japan will release the Final Manufacturing PMI and Capital Spending q/y, and the US will release some economic data such as the Beige Book, Total Vehicle Sales, ISM Manufacturing Prices, Construction Spending m/m, ISM Manufacturing PMI, and Final Manufacturing PMI. So there is a probability the USD/JPY will move with low to medium volatility during this day.

TODAY'S TECHNICAL LEVELS:

Resistance. 3: 111.11.

Resistance. 2: 110.89.

Resistance. 1: 110.68.

Support. 1: 110.41.

Support. 2: 110.20.

Support. 3: 109.98.

Disclaimer: Trading Forex (foreign exchange) on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.

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Daily analysis of USDX for June 01, 2016

The greenback remains strong in the mid term, as the 200 SMA is still a dynamic support on the H1 chart. The next resistance is still placed around the 96.03 level, where a breakout can happen to resume the bullish bias, but a pullback cannot be discarded, as the MACD indicator is reaching overbought conditions on this timeframe.

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H1 chart's resistance levels: 96.03 / 96.56

H1 chart's support levels: 95.68 / 95.22

Trading recommendations for today: Based on the H1 chart, place buy (long) orders only if the USD Index breaks with a bullish candlestick; the resistance level is at 96.03, take profit is at 96.56, and stop loss is at 95.50.

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Daily analysis of GBP/USD for June 01, 2016

The pair continues to trade into a bearish tone on the H1 chart, looking to extend the decline below the support level of 1.4464, which remains a solid demand zone on a short-term basis. However, after that sharp decline, a rebound is expected to test the resistance level of 1.4540, where a breakout can happen to re-test the 1.4604 level in coming days.

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H1 chart's resistance levels: 1.4540 / 1.4604

H1 chart's support levels: 1.4464 / 1.4408

Trading recommendations for today: Based on the H1 chart, place buy (long) orders only if the GBP/USD pair breaks a bullish candlestick; the resistance level is at 1.4540, take profit is at 1.4604 and stop loss is at 1.4476.

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