March 7, 2019 : EUR/USD is demonstrating a continuation bearish flag pattern.

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On November 13, the EUR/USD pair demonstrated recent bullish recovery around 1.1220-1.1250 where the current bullish movement above the depicted short-term bullish channel (In BLUE) was initiated.

Bullish fixation above 1.1430 was needed to enhance further bullish movement towards 1.1520. However, the market has been demonstrating obvious bearish rejection around 1.1430 few times so far.

The EUR/USD pair has lost its bullish momentum since January 31 when a bearish engulfing candlestick was demonstrated around 1.1514 where another descending high was established then.

This allowed the current bearish movement to occur towards 1.1300-1.1270 where the lower limit of the depicted DAILY channel came to meet the pair.

Since February 20, the EUR/USD pair has been demonstrating weak bullish recovery with sideway consolidations around the depicted price zone (1.1300-1.1270).

Last week, significant bullish recovery has emerged on Tuesday. However, by the end of last week's consolidations on Thursday, the pair has failed to fixate above 1.1400 with early signs of bearish rejection.

This indicated a high probability of bearish reversal towards 1.1300-1.1250 where the lower limit of the depicted movement channel is located.

Please note that a bearish flag pattern may become confirmed if bearish persistence below 1.1250 is achieved on the daily basis. Pattern target is projected towards 1.1000.

Trade Recommendations:

Conservative traders can wait for a bearish daily candlestick closure below 1.1250 as a valid SELL signal. T/P levels to be located around 1.1170 and 1.0940. S/L to be located above 1.1350.

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USD / CAD: Canadian has another exam tomorrow

Today, the USD / CAD currency pair demonstrates a price pullback after a fairly powerful price spurt. In the first week of March, a Canadian fell by more than 300 points, reaching the middle of the 34th figure. Almost all the fundamental factors are playing against the Loonie - the Canadian economy is declining, inflation is slowing down, and the country's Central Bank is frightened by the decline in interest rates. This is too steep a turn of events for USD / CAD, since, at the end of last year, traders expected to continue the cycle of tightening monetary policy. But the situation has changed radically in just two months. And tomorrow's data on the labor market in Canada can complement the negative fundamental picture - at least, preliminary forecasts do not bode well for USD / CAD bears.

However, let us begin with the results of the March meeting of the Canadian regulator. Given the previous macroeconomic releases, no one expected "hawkish" rhetoric from the representatives of the Central Bank. The probability of a rate hike in March was zero, so the main intrigue was in assessing the future prospects for changes in monetary policy. And as it turned out, the representatives of the Bank of Canada joined their colleagues from the RBA, the RBNZ and the Bank of Japan, who not only withstand a pause in the matter of raising interest rates but also allow easing of monetary policy conditions.

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Keeping the rate at 1.75%, the Canadian regulator said that today it is impossible to say with certainty when the time of the next round of increase will come. Although at the beginning of the year, Stephen Poloz noted that the rate should be "over time" raised to at least the lower limit of the neutral range (2.5% -3.5%). However, judging by the rhetoric of recent statements, the parameters of monetary policy will remain as they were this year - unless the Canadian economy shows a major breakthrough in the second half of the year. Otherwise, if the negative trend gets its continuation, experts admit a rate cut of 25 basis points: the likelihood of such a scenario was not ruled out in the Central Bank.

As noted in the Central Bank, the economic downturn, which began to grow at the end of last year, was stronger and more dynamic than previously thought. And it's not just a matter of reducing the oil market: here is the weakness of the real estate market, and a reduction in consumer spending, and a significant reduction in price pressure. The trade conflict between the United States and China is also at the center of attention of members of the Canadian regulator. According to them, now the markets have entered a zone of heightened uncertainty since the development of not only the global economy but also the national one depends on the resolution of trade conflicts.

It is worth recalling that the growth of the Canadian economy has actually stopped. On a monthly basis, GDP for the second month in a row is in the negative area, at minus -0.1%. If we talk about quarterly terms, in the fourth quarter of last year, the key indicator grew by only one-tenth of a percent compared to the previous quarter. A similar trend is observed among inflation indicators. The January consumer price index in Canada rose by only one-tenth of a percent on a monthly basis, and in annual terms, the figure dropped to 1.4%. This is the weakest growth rate since October 2017.

The Bank of Canada could not ignore such weak results. Regulators have significantly eased their forecast expectations - and most importantly, removed from the text of the accompanying statement that the overnight rate "should reach the neutral range". After that, the chances of raising the rate until the end of this year have dropped to their minimum values.

The Canadian dollar reacted to this state of affairs accordingly, weakening more than 300 points against the American dollar. Today's correction looks quite logical, but the "Canadian Nonfarm", which will be published on Friday, may give the pair a new northern impetus that will allow USD / CAD bulls to test the 35th figure already. According to preliminary estimates, the unemployment rate will remain at the previous level of 5.8%. But the increase in the number of employees can collapse sharply in the negative area, up to -2.5 thousand. The forecast itself is negative, but if real numbers turn out to be weaker than forecasts, the pair's growth will continue.

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The technical picture of USD / CAD also speaks in favor of moving north. On the weekly chart, the pair is above the Kumo cloud of the Ichimoku Kinko Hyo indicator and above all its lines. The bull signal "Parade of lines" indicates the potential for further price growth. In addition, the pair is located between the middle and upper lines of the Bollinger Bands indicator. This also indicates the bullish sentiment of traders. The nearest target of the uptrend can be seen at 1.3560, this is the resistance level and the top line of the Bollinger Bands indicator on the W1 timeframe. Stop-loss can be placed in the area of support, this is the middle line of the Bollinger Bands indicator (price 1.3470).

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Trump and the dollar in the sights of politicians

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While the markets are carefully sifting through and interpreting the results of the meeting of the ECB, which has postponed the term of the rate increase, America strongly criticizes its president for unfulfilled election promises. The economy did not manage to accelerate to 3%, even under the influence of a large-scale fiscal stimulus, the indicator grew by 2.9% in 2018. In addition, the negative balance of trade in goods increased to a record high of $ 891.3 billion. Something suggests that without the support of tax reform, the economy will not be able to surpass last year's result. It is hard to believe that after concluding a deal with China, Donald Trump will achieve a return of the imbalance of foreign trade to the levels that were under Barack Obama. Curiously, with what promises will the current head of the White House go to repeat elections in 2020?

Trump's Democrats are now richly criticized, calling his policy "erroneous" and demanding an explanation of how the president "is going to improve all these deficits!" It's important to know that the outpacing growth in imports (7.5%) over exports (6.3%) is due to high domestic demand on the background of external weakness. The negative balance of foreign trade to GDP increased to 3% from 2.8%, which is much lower than 10 years before the start of the great recession (6%).

The deterioration of foreign trade occurred, including at the expense of an expensive dollar, whose growth has repeatedly tried to suppress Trump. It is not easy to make the US currency weaker in conditions when the whole world is facing a serious economic slowdown, and the United States looks like an island of stability. This year, the US economy will expand by 2.6%, while eurozone GDP is only 1%, predicted in the OECD. Note that the estimate for the eurozone is significantly reduced, in November, a rise of 1.8% was expected (!). Italy will go into recession, and the German economy will show a slight increase of 0.8%. According to an authoritative organization, a substantial increase in wages and household expenditures will not be enough to compensate for the effects of trade friction and political uncertainty.

What is the future of EURUSD?

In the next 12 months, dollar positions will significantly weaken across the entire spectrum of the market. This will contribute to the slowdown of the US economy, the growth of the budget deficit and the soft rhetoric of the Fed. EURUSD may rise to $ 1.19. This is the forecast of market experts who participated in the Reuters survey from February 28 to March 6.

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Although respondents continue to wait for EURUSD growth, their average forecast for the main pair was slightly lower than a month ago.

The outlook for the dollar is unlikely to improve after the end of the trade war between the United States and China, experts say. If you give an estimate for the next month, in the case of a trade deal, the dollar's position will remain unchanged, and if the war continues, it will rise by 1%.

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Eurozone's GDP grew by 0.2% in Q4

According to the European statistical agency, Eurostat, the economic growth in 19 eurozone countries in the fourth quarter of 2018 was 0.2% in quarterly terms and 1.1% in annualized terms. Quarterly figures coincided with analysts' expectations but the annual figure was lower than the forecast of 1.2%.

In the fourth quarter, the overall GDP growth of all EU countries was 0.3% in quarterly terms and 1.4% in annual terms.

At the end of 2018, the GDP of eurozone and EU increased by 1.8% and 1.9%, respectively.

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Yellow metal in anticipation of growth drivers - experts

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For several months, analysts have fixed a long rise in gold prices. The yellow metal once again interested investors as a reliable asset and method of investing. However, experts find it difficult to answer whether the precious metal will be able to resume growth after the recent correction.

Since the beginning of this year, gold prices have shown dynamic growth. Changes in the monetary policy of the Federal Reserve System (FRS) of the United States have become a catalyst for increasing the value of precious metals. The agency plans to reduce the growth rate of interest rates amid a deteriorating situation in the American economy.

Recall that in the fourth quarter of 2018, financial markets showed instability, worrying investors. At this time, the Fed had to officially declare a slowdown in raising interest rates. As a result of this decision, the rate of the American currency was under pressure. Due to this, gold has regained its position, since these assets are inversely correlated with respect to each other.

At the moment, experts do not see the decisive factor in the market for the resumption of growth in prices for precious metals. After the fall in oil prices and the slowdown of the global economy, the problem of rising inflation, previously significant for the US economy, became irrelevant. The countries of the eurozone found themselves in a similar situation, wherein October 2018 inflation was 2.3%, and has now dropped to 1.4%.

Note that the yellow metal is a protective asset against inflation, as it saves savings from depreciation. However, in the absence of inflation, investors have no reason to buy precious metal, analysts say. Experts believe that in the short term, you should not rely on the resumption of the rise in gold prices. The yellow metal will continue to consolidate in anticipation of growth drivers, experts say.

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The market has prepared for strong fluctuations in the euro

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The euro decreased by one point, which was caused by rumors about a reduction in the forecast for economic growth and eurozone inflation at today's meeting of the ECB. The regulator is likely to issue new loans (LTRO).

In turn, the main competitor of the single currency, the dollar, was traded in different directions to a basket of world currencies after a portion of statistics from the United States. The ADP index did not meet expectations and turned out to be lower than the previous value, which allowed the European "bulls" to win back all the losses and update the intraday high.

Fans of the euro bought the currency when updating the minimum of $ 1.1290. The euro rebounded, after which it formed three bases with a double "bullish" divergence on the AO indicator. Despite the fact that this is a strong signal, today's speech by Mario Draghi is much stronger, since he can cancel any price model in one word.

The increase in quotations stopped the line of balance, which is now a good resistance - activity in Asian trading is very low. There was a break through the trend line, rollback reached 50%. Market participants prepared for significant fluctuations.

According to the technical evaluation of the picture, the target area is located in the $ 1.1355- $ 1.1366 zone. According to strategists, the indicators are not particularly worth paying attention to during the speech of the head of the ECB. After the meeting of the regulator, the market will prepare for Peyrols. The dollar is now under pressure due to a weak ADP report, it will last until Friday. Swings on the euro with a high probability will be off-scale.

All cross-pairs with the euro in the red, the exception is the euro / Canadian dollar. It looks like the price will test the 1.13 mark again before the price rises. The best scenario for the euro / dollar pair is flat at the balance line before the start of the Draghi press conference at 13:30.

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EURUSD: The ECB is preparing to launch a program to provide additional liquidity to LTRO banks

The US dollar was unable to continue its upward movement in tandem with the euro and the pound after the release of reports indicating a slight slowdown in the labor market and a growing deficit in foreign trade.

Despite the best efforts of US President Donald Trump, there is no way to cope with the growing deficit of foreign trade.

According to the report of the US Department of Commerce, the US foreign trade deficit in December 2018 increased by 19% compared with the previous month and amounted to 59.8 billion dollars. Economists had expected a trade deficit of $ 573 billion in December.

The number of jobs in the US private sector increased in February, but it turned out to be worse than economists' forecasts, and compared with January, the increase was almost half as much.

According to Automatic Data Processing Inc. and Moody's Analytics. The number of jobs in the US private sector increased by 183,000, as companies hired employees less actively than in January. Economists had forecast an increase in the number of jobs in the private sector by 200,000.

In January of this year, the number of jobs increased by 300,000, whereas previously it was reported about 213,000.

As for the technical picture, it remained unchanged. Much today will depend on the statements of the European Central Bank after the announcement of the decision on interest rates. Most likely, the regulator will announce the launch of the LTRO refinancing program, which, although temporarily, may weaken the position of the European currency.

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An unsuccessful consolidation of EURUSD above the resistance of 1.1315 may lead to a new wave of reduction in risky assets with the update of 1.1280 and 1.1235 lows. If the ECB's statements are more firm with a focus on raising interest rates this year, the demand for a trading instrument may increase, and a break of 1.1315 will be a good signal to buy European currencies in order to update 1.1370 and 1.14160.

The Canadian dollar collapsed against the US dollar after the Bank of Canada left the one-day interest rate target unchanged at 1.75%, announcing increased uncertainty about the timing of future rate increases.

The regulator also said that it will take time to assess how long economic growth will remain below potential and how inflation will change. This again suggests that interest rates will not be raised in the near future.

The weak report on labor productivity also put pressure on the Canadian dollar. According to the data, labor productivity in Canada in the 4th quarter of 2018 decreased by 0.4% after growth. Economists had expected a decline in productivity of 0.3%.

Canada's foreign trade deficit increased again in December due to lower energy exports. According to the data, the trade deficit of goods in December amounted to 4.59 billion Canadian dollars, while economists had expected the deficit to be 2.06 billion Canadian dollars.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

How soon will oil quotes reach $70 a barrel?

According to analysts of Bank of America, the situation on the oil market looks much more stable now than it might seem at first glance.

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"The continuing decline in the extraction of raw materials in Venezuela and Iran, combined with the reduction in production from OPEC +, allows us to expect attempts to break through oil prices in the direction of $70 per barrel in the short term," representatives of the financial institution said.

"However, more impressive growth in the cost of black gold is unlikely to be sustainable, since American manufacturers are not asleep, and for them, such a development is an extremely attractive opportunity in the struggle to increase market share," they added.

In turn, UBS specialists believe that the supply of black gold will continue to decline in the coming months, thanks to the implementation of the OPEC + agreement and strong demand. According to the bank's forecast in the medium term, a barrel of raw materials of Brent grade may rise in price between $70 and $80.

Barclays experts also maintain a positive attitude towards the prospects for the oil market. They expect that the average price of Brent crude oil will reach $ 70 per barrel this year.

"Despite numerous indicators of a slowdown in the global economy, the demand for black gold remains steady. We think that the main source of uncertainty for the oil market in the current year will not be the United States but the reaction of OPEC to the political decisions of the States, "Barclays said.

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GBP / USD. March 7. The trading system. "Regression Channels". Brexit talks stalled again

4-hour timeframe

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Technical details:

The senior linear regression channel: direction - up.

The younger linear regression channel: direction - up.

Moving average (20; smoothed) - sideways.

CCI: -36.0474

The GBP / USD currency pair has returned to the moving average and is threatening to overcome it, changing the tendency of the instrument to ascending again. What caused the new turn of demand for the British pound is hard to say. Most likely, the old trend for the pound, which rises in price last year on positive market expectations and rumors, is working. Unfortunately, in most cases, the rumors are not confirmed, and positive expectations are not met. But if there were no such groundless corrections, then the pound would be worth less than one dollar. There is still no positive news about the Brexit process. The European Commission acknowledged that the recent negotiations with London ended in nothing, the parties failed to come to new agreements. This is despite the fact that Jean-Claude Juncker and other EU leaders have repeatedly stated that they will not hold new negotiations with the UK. But in any case, there is no agreement, which means that Brexit must be transferred to a later date. Theresa May does not like this option, but it seems that she already understands that this is a dead end. What will delay the Brexit? Only additional time for negotiations, in which neither side wants to make concessions. Thus, it is not yet clear why a postponement is needed at all? From a technical point of view, the pound still remains below the MA, and therefore the downward trend continues.

Nearest support levels:

S1 - 1.3123

S2 - 1.3062

S3 - 1.3000

Nearest resistance levels:

R1 - 1.3184

R2 - 1.3245

R3 - 1.3306

Trading recommendations:

The pair GBP / USD has adjusted to the moving average. Thus, today it is recommended to wait for the completion of this correction and resume short positions with targets at 1.3123 and 1.3062 if the pair remains below the moving average.

Buy positions are recommended to be opened in case the pair manages to consolidate above the moving average. In this case, the tendency for the instrument to change to ascending again will be actual longs with targets at 1.3245 and 1.3306.

In addition to the technical picture should also take into account the fundamental data and the time of their release.

Explanations for illustrations:

The senior linear regression channel is the blue lines of the unidirectional movement.

The junior linear channel is the purple lines of the unidirectional movement.

CCI is the blue line in the indicator regression window.

The moving average (20; smoothed) is the blue line on the price chart.

Murray levels - multi-colored horizontal stripes.

Heikin Ashi is an indicator that colors bars in blue or purple.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

EUR / USD. March 7th Trading system "Regression Channels". GDP and the results of the ECB meeting may cause additional pressure

4-hour timeframe

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Technical details:

The senior linear regression channel: direction - down.

The younger linear regression channel: direction - up.

Moving average (20; smoothed) - down.

CCI: -141.4935

The currency pair EUR / USD on Thursday, March 7, having completed Murray's level of "1/8" - 1.1292, bounced off of it and started an upward correction to the moving average line. For the euro, an important day has come. Today will be the announcement of the results of the ECB meeting. There is no doubt that the regulator will not implement any changes in monetary policy, but phrases may be heard at a press conference that will help you to understand in what direction the ECB will look in the coming months. The main question that concerns all traders will be whether it is necessary to stimulate the economy, launch the LTRO program and postpone the deadlines for raising the key interest rate? If so, then the European currency may again be under pressure in tandem with the US dollar. Recall that this year the Fed may raise the key rate two more times. Although at the beginning of the year some representatives of the American regulator gave reason to doubt the implementation of these plans. Nevertheless, in America we are talking about a possible rate increase after it has been raised several times already. In the European Union, there is no question of raising the rate, and today it may be stated that it is necessary to "help" the economy. This imbalance leaves the euro with no long-term prospects for strengthening. Also today, there will be a report on GDP for the fourth quarter.

Nearest support levels:

S1 - 1.1292

S2 - 1.1230

S3 - 1.1169

Nearest resistance levels:

R1 - 1.1353

R2 - 1.1414

R3 - 1.1475

Trading recommendations:

The EUR / USD currency pair has started a weak correction. Therefore, it is now recommended to wait for its completion, that is, Heikin Ashi's reversal down, and then resume trading for a fall with targets of 1.1292 and 1.1250.

Once again, the buy positions can be considered after the price is fixed above the moving average line. In this case, the trend in the instrument will again change to ascending, and the first target for the long positions will be 1.1414.

In addition to the technical picture should also take into account the fundamental data and the time of their release.

Explanations for illustrations:

The senior linear regression channel is the blue lines of the unidirectional movement.

The younger linear regression channel is the purple lines of the unidirectional movement.

CCI - blue line in the indicator window.

The moving average (20; smoothed) is the blue line on the price chart.

Murray levels - multi-colored horizontal stripes.

Heikin Ashi is an indicator that colors bars in blue or purple.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

GBP / USD plan for the American session on March 7. Buyers did not have enough strength for a new spurt

To open long positions on the GBP / USD pair, you need:

Buyers have not managed to return to the resistance level of 1.3194, which led to a decrease in the pound in the morning. At the moment, you can rely on the formation of a false breakdown in the area of support at 1.3122. However, larger purchases are best done on a rebound from 1.3049 and 1.2973 lows. The main objective remains the same which is to break through the resistance level of 1.3194 that will open the way to the highs of 1.3251 and 1.3308.

To open short positions on the GBP / USD pair, you need:

Sellers need a breakdown of the lower boundary of the side channel in the area of 1.3122 in the second half of the day. In turn, this will lead to a larger sale with an update of 1.3049 and 1.2973 minima, where I recommend taking profits. Given the growth scenario of the pound in the second half of the day, only a false breakdown in the area of resistance at 1.3194 will be the first signal for sales. Otherwise, opening short positions can be safely opened from the highs of 1.3251 and 1.3308.

More in the video forecast for March 7

Indicator signals:

Moving averages

Trade is conducted in the region of 30- and 50-medium moving, but the market is already on the side of sellers.

Bollinger bands

Bollinger Bands indicator volatility is very low, which does not give signals on market entry.

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Description of indicators

MA (moving average) 50 days - yellow

MA (moving average) 30 days - green

MACD: fast EMA 12, slow EMA 26, SMA 9

Bollinger Bands 20

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

EUR / USD plan for the US session on March 7. Traders are waiting for statements from the European Central Bank

To open long positions on EUR / USD pair, you need:

Given the low volatility of the market, trade has moved to a narrow side of the channel at 1.1290-1.1323. Today, it is best to return to the euro after the press conference of the President of the European Central Bank, Mario Draghi, which may coincide with a breakthrough and fixing of the EUR/USD pair above the resistance of 1.1323 and lead to a break in the downtrend and update highs around 1.1345 and 1.1368, where I recommend fixing the profit. In the case of a decline during the speech of the head of the ECB, it is best to return to long positions on a false breakdown in the region of 1.1290 or to rebound from the lows of 1.1263 and 1.1235.

To open short positions on EUR / USD pair, you need:

Bears need to rely on the formation of a false breakdown in the area of 1.1323, as well as on the specifics of the LTRO program. The launch of which may cause the euro to weaken in the short term and the main task of sellers will be a breakthrough and fixation below the resistance of 1.1290, which will lead to an update of the minima in the area of 1.1263 and 1.1235, where I recommend taking profits. In the case of euro growth at the speech of Mario Draghi, you can take a closer look at short positions when updating highs around 1.1345 and 1.1368.

More in the video forecast for March 7

Indicator signals:

Moving averages

Trade remains below the 30- and 50-medium moving, which indicates the lateral nature of the market.

Bollinger bands

Volatility is very low, which does not give signals to enter the market.

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Description of indicators

MA (moving average) 50 days - yellow

MA (moving average) 30 days - green

MACD: fast EMA 12, slow EMA 26, SMA 9

Bollinger Bands 20

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Simplified Wave Analysis. Overview of GBP / JPY for the week of March 7

Large TF:

An upward wave model is developed on the cross-weekly scale chart, in which the middle part (B) has ended by the end of last year.

Small TF:

The ascending section of January 3 has powerful potential. Given the pronounced impulsive nature of the rise, the transition to a higher wave level will occur without obvious corrections. Before a further breakthrough in the main course, a short-term pullback is likely.

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Forecast and recommendations:

The current price increase sets a new course for the short-term trend of the pair. It is recommended to use any counter movements to search for input or to strengthen the instrument purchases.

Resistance zones:

- 149.40 / 149.90

Support areas:

- 146.00 / 145.50

Explanations for the figures: The simplified wave analysis uses waves consisting of 3 parts (A – B – C). On each of the considered scales of the graph, the last, incomplete wave is analyzed. Zones show calculated areas with the highest probability of reversal. The arrows indicate the wave marking by the method used by the author. The solid background shows the formed structure, the dotted - the expected movement.

Note: The wave algorithm does not take into account the duration of tool movements over time. To conduct a trade transaction, you need confirmation signals from the trading systems you use!

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Bitcoin analysis for March 07, 2019

Nothing specially changed since our previous analysis. We still expect lower price on BTC.

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According to the H1 time – frame, we found that there is a potential end of the complex upward correction WXY at the price of $3.870. Also, there is multi resistance around $3.870 (yellow rectangle), which is a sign that buying at this stage looks risky. We also found hidden bearish divergence on the Stochastic oscillator, which is another sign of weakness. The key support is seen at the price of $3.635.

Trading recommendation: We are bearish on BTC from $3.823 with the target at $3.636.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Technical analysis of EUR/USD for March 07, 2019

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Overview: The EUR/USD pair below around the weekly pivot point (1.1393). It continued to move downwards from the level of 1.1393 to the bottom around 1.1335. Today, the first resistance level is seen at 1.1393 followed by 1.1426, while daily support 1 is seen at 1.1335. Furthermore, the moving average (100) starts signaling a downward trend; therefore, the market is indicating a bearish opportunity below 1.1393. So it will be good to sell at 1.1393 with the first target of 1.1335. It will also call for a downtrend in order to continue towards 1.1294. The strong daily support is seen at the 1.1254 level. According to the previous events, we expect the EUR/USD pair to trade between 1.1393 and 1.1254 in coming hours. The price area of 1.1393 remains a significant resistance zone. Thus, the trend is still bearish as long as the level of 1.1393 is not broken. On the contrary, in case a reversal takes place and the EUR/USD pair breaks through the resistance level of 1.1393, then a stop loss should be placed at 1.1453.The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Technical analysis of GBP/USD for March 07, 2019

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Overview: The GBP/USD pair will continue rising from the level of 1.3130 in the long term. It should be noted that the support is established at the level of 1.3130 which represents the daily pivot point on the H1 chart. The price is likely to form a double bottom in the same time frame. Accordingly, the GBP/USD pair is showing signs of strength following a breakout of the highest level of 1.3130. So, buy above the level of 1.3300 with the first target at 1.3524 in order to test the daily resistance 1. The level of 1.3524 is a good place to take profits. Moreover, the RSI is still signaling that the trend is upward as it remains strong above the moving average (100). This suggests that the pair will probably go up in coming hours. If the trend is able to break the level of 1.3300, then the market will call for a strong bullish market towards the objective of 1.3524 today. On the other hand, in case a reversal takes place and the GBP/USD pair breaks through the support level of 1.3130, a further decline to 1.3080 can occur. It would indicate a bearish market.The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Analysis of Gold for March 07, 2019

Gold has been trading sideways at the price of $1.286.90. Accumulation is in progress.

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After the period of the downward movement, Gold did start the basing (accumulation process), which is a sign that selling looks very risky and that we may expect upward movement. The key short-term resistance is set at the price of $1.290.00. The key support is seen at the price of $1.281.00.

Trading recommendation: We will buy gold if we see a breakout of the $1.290.00 with targets at $1.296.65 and $1.311.29.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

EUR / USD: what signals Mario Draghi will give the euro?

The results of the next meeting of the European Central Bank (ECB) will be announced today.

Since interest rate changes are not expected at this time, the attention of market participants is likely to be focused on the comments of the ECB President Mario Draghi.

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First, new eurozone GDP and inflation forecasts will be announced. If they are revised downward, the euro against the dollar will have to be adjusted lower. The likelihood of such a scenario is now estimated at a level above the average.

Another important point is the timing of interest rate increases. Mario Draghi promised to be puzzled by this issue after the summer of 2019. If new specifics come from the head of the ECB, this will allow the market to relate its expectations to the regulator's plans and take into account in the EUR/USD quotes.

In addition, the hot topic at the current meeting of the ECB promises to be the issue of the resumption of long-term refinancing operations (LTRO).

More clarity appears in this matter, then the more it will affect the euro.

If the regulator does not announce a new credit line this week, the EUR/USD may rise to 1.14. If the head of the ECB announces the approach of a new round of LTRO and that the details will be presented in April, the euro may first subsist and then quickly stabilize, since this scenario does not exceed the bearish expectations. If, however, it is announced that new loans will be granted to banks with a maturity of 3 to 4 years, then the EUR / USD pair can test its November minimum around the 1.1215 mark. However, if it announces that new loans will be granted to banks with a maturity of 3 to 4 years, then the EUR / USD pair can test its November minimum around the 1.1215 mark.

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What are the markets waiting for?

Since the beginning of the year, the US dollar weakened despite the rally in the stock markets, goods and raw materials, which were caused by two factors. On the one hand, the growth of hopes that the trade war between Washington and Beijing will stop or at least diminished and, on the other hand, there are clearer signals that the Fed intends to stop the process of raising interest rates and, possibly, further reducing its balance. Nonetheless, the state of uncertainty of such events remains to be the main limiting factor of investors.

The events of the beginning of the year showed that it was very difficult to reach an agreement between Americans and the Chinese and it is still unclear how it will finalize. Is it not the reason for the emergence of new differences between the parties? In general, the statements by the Fed and its individual members, including Fed chair Jerome Powell, who will particularly continue to be cautious about the changes in monetary policy. Although this reassured the markets, it did not radically change the situation and the reason for this was a clear slowdown in China's economic growth. The threat of a recession in Europe already aggravated by Brexit's problem this year and the first sign of a slowdown in economic growth in the United States itself.

The market is clearly balancing and weighs the pros and cons. It seems that a significant number of large market players are now out of the market as they watch the developments and tritely waiting.

In the foreign exchange market, all of these are expressed through the nervous movements of currency pairs, which react to published economic statistics, media reports and various gossip and rumors.

So when will it be long for a long time?

In our opinion, investors will begin to show activity only after reaching an agreement on trade between the PRC and the United States but it can be short-term, since, after that, all attention will be on Brexit and the emerging economic statistics. If Britain leaves the EU without an agreement, this may cause a deterioration of the situation in Europe as a whole, which can again be pulled by China and the States, who still hope to resist and traditionally sit in their Western hemisphere, receiving dividends from the European crisis.

If the overall picture improves in some magical way, then undoubtedly in this situation, the demand for risky assets including the stocks of companies, goods, and raw materials will grow. In this case, the dollar is likely to remain under pressure but not too strong against major currencies due to their weakness. Most likely in the short term, we can expect for a continuation of the overall lateral dynamics in the currency markets.

Forecast of the day:

The EUR/USD pair is trading above the level of 1.1295, remaining under pressure in anticipation of the outcome of the ECB meeting. If the pair overcome this level, it can continue its decline to 1.1250. At the same time, the absence of a new portion of the negative can lead to its local recovery to 1.1335.

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The AUD/USD pair remains hostage to trade negotiations between the US and China. She has a recovery potential to 0.7065. If this mark stands, there is a probability of a reversal of the pair and the continuation of its decline to 0.6965.

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EUR/USD analysis for March 07, 2019

EUR/USD has been trading upwards as we expected. The price tested the level of 1.1324.

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As we advised yesterday, the breakout of the 1.1310 did confirm the further rally on EUR/USD. A selling climax in the background followed by sideways movement is a sign that sellers lost power and that support at 1.1290 held successfully. Besides, the bullish divergence on the Stochastic oscillator is present, which is another sign of potential strength. Resistance levels are seen at 1.1338 and 1.1380.

Trading recommendation: We are long EUR from 1.1315 with targets at 1.1338 and 1.1380. Protective stop is placed at 1.1284The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

All attention to the ECB decision at 12.45 and 13.30 London time

The big picture: Markets are waiting for the ECB

There are several important plots:

British Prime Minister May tries to save her agreement with the EU before the critical parliamentary voting on March 12-13 but it seems to be unsuccessful. Having spent most of the time but still without confirmation of the consent of the parliament, Theresa May will most likely be forced to accept and put to vote the question of postponing Britain's exit from the EU and the parliament will approve this postponement, which could be a one year delay or more. There is almost no time left until the original date on March 29.

The US-China trade deal seems have reached an agreement but even if it's not, Trump will most likely not start a new round of trade war given the risks of a start in an economic slowdown in the US.

Hence for this week, the main event for the euro is the decision of the ECB today at 12.45 London time and the speech of the head of the ECB at 13.30 London time.

Markets are waiting for a new liquidity stimulus program from the ECB. If such a program is adopted or not, the market can expect a strong movement in both cases.

We are ready to sell from the level of 1.1284.

We are ready to buy from the level of 1.1425.

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Analysis of the divergence of EUR / USD for March 7. The euro found itself again to the level of 1.1285

4h

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The EUR / USD pair on the 4-hour chart continues the process of falling towards the level of 1.1269. There is not a single indicator showing ripening divergences on March 7. Reversing the pair's quotes from the level of 1.1269 will allow traders to expect a reversal in favor of the European currency and some growth in the direction of the correction level of 23.6% - 1.1358. Closing the pair below the 1.1269 level will increase the likelihood of a further fall in the direction of the correction level of 0.0% - 1.1218.

The Fibo grid was built on extremums from September 24, 2018, and November 12, 2018.

Daily

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On the 24-hour chart, the pair returned to the correctional level of 127.2% - 1.1285. Rebounding the pair from this level will allow us to expect a reversal in favor of the EU currency and some growth in the direction of the correction level of 100.0% - 1.1553. Fixing quotations below the Fibo level of 127.2% will work in favor of continuing to fall in the direction of the next level of correction 161.8% - 1.0941. Maturing divergences are not observed on this graph.

The Fibo grid is built on extremums from November 7, 2017, and February 16, 2018.

Recommendations to traders:

Purchases of the EUR / USD pair can be carried out with the target of 1.1358 if the pair disconnects from the level of 1.1269, and the Stop Loss order is below this level.

Sales of the EUR / USD pair can be carried out now with a target of 1.1269, and with a Stop Loss order above the level of 1.1358, since the pair completed closing below the Fibo level of 23.6%.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Analysis of GBP / USD Divergences for March 7th. The pair is consolidating after two rebounds

4h

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The GBP / USD pair on the 4-hour chart rebounded from the correction level of 76.4% - 1.3094 and a turn in favor of the British currency. As a result, the process of growth began in the direction of the correctional level of 100.0% - 1.3300. There is not a single indicator showing ripening divergences on March 7. Fixing quotations of the pair below the Fibo level of 76.4% can be interpreted as a reversal in favor of the American currency and the resumption of the fall in the direction of the correction level of 61.8% - 1.2969 is expected.

The Fibo grid is built on extremes from September 20, 2018, and January 3, 2019.

1h

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On the hourly chart, the pair also rebounded from the correction level of 76.4% - 1.3111 and also began the process of growth in the direction of the Fibo level of 100.0% - 1.3217. Rebounding the pair from the level of 100.0% will allow traders to expect a reversal in favor of the US dollar and the resumption of decline in the direction of the correction level of 76.4% - 1.3111. Closing quotes above the Fibo level of 100.0% will increase the chances of the pair to continue to grow in the direction of the next correction level of 127.2% - 1.3337.

The Fibo grid is built on extremes from January 25, 2019, and February 14, 2019.

Recommendations to traders:

Purchases of the GBP / USD pair can be made with the target of 1.3337 and a Stop Loss order below the 100.0% level if the pair closes above 1.3217 (hourly chart).

Sales of the GBP / USD pair can be carried out with the target at 1.3111 and a Stop Loss order above the level of 100.0% if the pair bounces off the level of 1.3217 (hourly chart).

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Simplified Wave Analysis. Overview of AUD / USD for the week of March 7

Large TF:

Over the past year, the downstream exchange rate has remained the main focus of the Aussie price movement. The wave structure indicates that the oncoming traffic of the last months will take the place of correction.

Small TF:

The rise in prices that began on January 3 has a high enough potential to continue. The February price decline corrects the first phase of the bull wave. The price has reached strong support.

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Forecast and recommendations:

Preparations for the price breakout of the flat corridor of recent months are almost complete. Signal immediate reversal on the chart has not yet formed. Supporters of the international trade style are advised to track opportunities to enter long positions.

Resistance zones:

- 0.7340 / 0.7390

Support areas:

- 0.7050 / 0.7000

Explanations for the figures: The simplified wave analysis uses waves consisting of 3 parts (A – B – C). On each of the considered scales of the graph, the last, incomplete wave is analyzed. Zones show calculated areas with the highest probability of reversal. The arrows indicate the wave marking by the method used by the author. The solid background shows the formed structure, the dotted - the expected movement.

Note: The wave algorithm does not take into account the duration of tool movements over time. To conduct a trade transaction, you need confirmation signals from the trading systems you use!

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Trading recommendations for the EURUSD currency pair - placement of trading orders (March 7)

The Euro / Dollar currency pair for the last trading day again showed low volatility of 39 points, as a result continuing an ambiguous fluctuation within the range level. From the point of view of technical analysis, we see that the quotation slowed down several times after reaching the range level of 1.1300 / 1.1320, resulting in a cluster of two-digit doji-type candles. The news was rather calm. Nothing important was published. The only thing that can be singled out is the United States data regarding the change in the number of people employed in the non-agricultural sector from ADP in February, presenting a decrease from 300K to 183K. However, in the market, as you notice, the news is not well-played. When it comes to the information background, a statement of the European Commission was released under the name of the official representative, Margaritis Schinas. According to him, The EU and Britain are still holding heavy discussions around the Brexit agreement. As of now, not a single solution has been found that would comply with the Brexit Agreement, including the protocol for Ireland and Northern Ireland, Schinas said.

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Today, in terms of the economic calendar , many traders have been waiting for the important day of the week. Today is the ECB meeting with a subsequent press conference where Mario Draghi might provide us with something interesting about future plans, and, of course, the fate of the interest rate. Before the press conference, the final GDP data (Q4) of Europe will be released, where economic growth is expected to slow down from 1.6% to 1.2%. For the United States, we are waiting for data applications regarding unemployment benefits, which should be reduced.

EU 13:00 MSK - GDP (y / y) (Q4)

EU 16:30 Moscow time - Press conference of the ECB

Further development

Analyzing the current trading chart, we see how the quote stubbornly stands within the range of 1.1300 / 1.1320, as if traders are waiting in anticipation of the ECB meeting. It is likely to assume that the stagnation will still remain in the market; however, closer, at the time of the press conference. Volatility may increase which may allow breaking through the boundaries. Traders, in turn, occupy a waiting position, monitor clear breakdowns of boundaries and pay close attention to the information background.

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Based on the available data, it is possible to decompose a number of variations, let's consider them:

- Consider buy positions in case of leveling and fixing higher than 1.1330.

- Consider sale positions after fixing the price lower than 1.1280.

Indicator Analysis

Analyzing a different sector of timeframes (TF ), we see that in the short term there is an upward interest. However, due to the fact that there is a stagnation at present, indicators may change. Intraday and mid-term prospects maintain a downward interest.

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Weekly volatility / Measurement of volatility: Month; Quarter; Year

Measurement of volatility reflects the average daily fluctuation , with the calculation for the Month / Quarter / Year.

(March 7, was based on the time of publication of the article)

The current time volatility is 15 points. It is likely to assume that volatility will accelerate at the evening and during the time of the press conference.

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Key levels

Zones of resistance: 1.1440; 1.1550; 1.1650 *; 1.1720 **; 1.1850 **; 1.2100

Support areas: 1.1300 **; 1.1214 **; 1.1120; 1.1000

* Periodic level

** Range Level

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Trading recommendations for the currency pair GBPUSD - placement of trading orders (March 7)

For the last trading day, the currency pair Pound / Dollar showed extremely low volatility of 56 points. As a result, the recent pullback was changed to stagnation. From the point of view of technical analysis, we have a rollback from the value of 1.3100, where the quote came earlier. In fact, the value of 1.3100, together with a Fibo-level of 38.20 (short term), plays a certain point of support, resulting in stagnation within the framework of 1.3130 / 1.3180. Meanwhile, the news background for yesterday had practically no activity. The only thing that can be identified is the US data on the change in the number of people employed in the non-agricultural sector from ADP in February, where there was a decrease from 300K to 183K, but this news did not practically affected the market. The information background had the statement of the European Commission in the person of the official representative Margaritis Schinas. According to him, the EU and Britain are still holding heavy discussions around the Brexit agreement. As of now, not a single solution has been found that would comply with the Brexit agreement, including the protocol for Ireland and Northern Ireland, Schinas said.

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Today, in terms of the economic calendar, we can say the key day of the week that many traders were waiting for. Today is the ECB meeting which will be followed by a press conference where Mario Draghi can give something interesting about future plans and, of course, the fate of the interest rate. Now, you ask why we consider Europe, if we work with the British pound? The fact is that there is a high correlation between these trading instruments, and if one of them changes dramatically, the other can show a "practically" similar oscillation.

16:30 MSK - Press Conference of the ECB.

Further development

Analyzing the current trading chart, we see that the quotation is developing around the value level of 1.3180, which we have previously designated as the upper limit of the cluster of 1.3130 / 1.3180. It is likely to assume that the current amplitude of the oscillation is up to the point of the information and news background, here traders carefully monitor the boundaries for breakdown.

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Based on the available data, it is possible to decompose a number of variations. Let's consider them:

- Positions for buy are considered in case of a clear price fixation higher than 1.3200.

- Positions for sale are considered in case of a clear price fixation lower than 1.3120.

Indicator Analysis

Analyzing a different sector of timeframes (TF), we see that indicators have chosen a downward interest because of the current cluster in the short term. On the other hand, intraday perspective changed interest from descending to neutral because f the same cluster while the medium-term outlook remains on the upward interest.

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Weekly volatility / Measurement of volatility: Month; Quarter; Year

Measurement of volatility reflects the average daily fluctuation, with the calculation for the Month / Quarter / Year.

(March 7, was based on the time of publication of the article)

The current time volatility is 27 points. In case of breakdown of the accumulation and support from the information and news background, the volatility of the day can break out of low indicators.

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Key levels

Zones of resistance: 1,3200 *; 1.3300; 1.3440 **; 1.3580 *; 1.3700

Support areas: 1.3130 *; 1.3000 ** (1.3000 / 1.3050); 1.2920 *; 1.2770 (1.2720 / 1.2770) **; 1.2620; 1.2500 *; 1.2350 **.

* Periodic level

** Range Level

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Wave analysis of EUR / USD for March 7. Will the ECB break wave counting?

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Wave counting analysis:

On Wednesday, March 6, trading ended for EUR / USD by a few bp decrease. Thus, the estimated wave 5 continues its construction with a minimum target located about 12 figures. Still, the reserve option remains the transformation of the trend section, which takes off on February 15 in the ascending segment. But now, there is no reason to change the strategy. Today, the ECB will announce the decisions taken during the meeting. There will also be a press conference at which, perhaps, plans for monetary policy for the near future will be announced. This information may affect the movement of the pair.

Sales targets:

1.1233 - 100.0% Fibonacci

1.1184 - 127.2% Fibonacci

Shopping goals:

1.1419 - 0.0% Fibonacci

General conclusions and trading recommendations:

The pair continues to build the estimated wave 5. Thus, I still recommend selling the pair based on building the downward wave 5 with targets located near the level of 1.1233, which corresponds to 100.0% Fibonacci. During the ECB press conference, the protective order can be moved as close as possible to the price level, as sharp tool movements are possible.

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Burning Forecast 03/07/2019

Today is the main event of the week for EURUSD - the ECB decision on monetary policy.

The ECB's decision will be released at 11.45 London time and the press conference of the ECB President Draghi at 12.30 London time

The market expects the ECB to (possibly) offer a new program to inject liquidity into the markets and economies of the eurozone (LTRO program) - as the ECB sees clear signs of slowing growth.

If the ECB does offer such a program to the market, this is a strong change in the situation for finance in the eurozone. This could be a big push and give rise to the euro trend.

We keep selling from 1.1315, our stop at 1.1360.

Selling is possible at a break below 1.1285 - and then sell at a break below 1.1230.

Alternative: buy at a breakthrough of 1.1425 up.

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Wave analysis of GBP / USD for March 7. Pound sterling is waiting for the decision of Parliament

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Wave counting analysis:

On March 6, the GBP / USD pair fell by 10 bp, which does not give grounds to supplement the current wave counting. Thus, the uptrend is still considered complete. If this is true, the decline in quotations will continue. There is no news background now, as there is no new information on Brexit. There is no breakthrough in negotiations or even reason to expect a favorable outcome. It remains only to wait on March 12, upon the start of voting on Brexit scenarios in the British Parliament. After that, there will be at least a little clarity about what to expect in the coming months.

Shopping goals:

1.3348 - 0.0% Fibonacci

Sales targets:

1.001 - 38.2% Fibonacci

1.2891 - 50.0% Fibonacci

General conclusions and trading recommendations:

The wave pattern still assumes the construction of a downward set of waves. Therefore, sales are now expedient with targets at 1.00100 and 1.2891, which equates to 38.2% and 50.0% Fibonacci and a protective order above 1.3340. Larger sales are recommended when receiving negative news from the UK.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Indicator analysis. Daily review for March 7, 2019 for the pair GBP / USD

Trend analysis (Fig. 1).

On Thursday, the price will move up. The first upper target is 1.3224 - the pullback level of 50.0% (yellow dotted line).

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Fig. 1 (daily schedule).

Comprehensive analysis:

- indicator analysis - up;

- Fibonacci levels - up;

- volumes - up;

- candlestick analysis - up;

- trend analysis - down;

- Bollinger lines - up;

- weekly schedule - down.

General conclusion:

On Thursday, the price will move up. The first upper target is 1.3224 - the pullback level of 50.0% (yellow dotted line).

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Likely increase in volatility on Thursday

The next FOMC meeting on monetary policy will take place on March 20 and the markets are actively looking for signs on which the rhetoric of the Fed's leadership over the next period will be formed. Recall that in January, the Fed confirmed the "December theses" by Jerome Powell and took a pause in the rate hike cycle, which was immediately reflected in the growth of stock indices around the world.

The February Labor Market Report scheduled to be published on Friday is key to choosing the direction of the markets for the next two weeks. If he is confidently strong, the Fed may announce the resumption of the rate hike cycle, which will immediately lead to a reaction in the markets towards increased demand for defensive assets and a fall in stocks.

Recent evidence indicates that problems continue to pile up. The US foreign trade deficit increased to a record level over the past 10 years in 2018 and the record levels of trade deficit with China, Mexico, and the EU were updated. Directly in December, foreign trade deficit amounted to 59.8 billion dollars and this is the maximum since October 2008.

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Protectionism as a form of state policy was actively pursued by the White House administration, but it has not yielded any results so far. The growth of stock indices is still a consequence of expectations solely related to the cessation of tightening of the monetary policy of the Fed and not with the reforms of Trump, which can adversely affect the political image of the Republican Party and worsen its position.

In this regard, the upcoming conclusion of a trade transaction between the US and China is of particular importance, which will allow the US to straighten out the commodity balance somewhat and will give additional reasons for the growth of the stock market, that is, including the growth of investment.

As for nonfarm, the expectations remain neutral. Following the ADP report published on Wednesday, new jobs equivalent to 183 thousand in February were created. This is already quite expected after a record of 300 thousand in January.

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Players do not expect a significant increase in new jobs from tomorrow's report but rely on the sustainability of growth in average wages. If the real results turn out to be better than expected, then the Fed will be able to announce the resumption of the rate growth cycle after the end of the pause, which will immediately lead to an increase in the dollar index. The forecast for non-pharmaceuticals was adjusted from 190 thousand to 180 thousand after the release of the ADP report, which generally suggest an increase in the dollar after the publication of tomorrow's report.

EUR / USD pair

The consolidated forecast for the outcome of today's meeting of the ECB suggests lowering forecasts for inflation and the economy in order to get more variability in the formulation of economic steps and, first of all, to have grounds in continuing the TLTRO program.

The improvement in the economic indicators of the eurozone over the last month cannot serve as a basis for complacency, indicating an obvious weakness of the economy since the prolonged recession in 2018. It is better to have a program ready to support it, with which this reason prompted the ECB to have a regular meeting.

A significant decline in forecasts implies both an increase in volatility and a drop in the euro at the end of the day. The EUR/USD decline to the support of 1.1233 quite likely targets the long-term minimum of 1.1214.

GBP / USD pair

The pound was under pressure again after reports that the negotiations held on Tuesday about the status of the border between Ireland and Northern Ireland ended in vain. The meeting between the Attorney General of England and Wales, Geoffrey Cox, and the Brexit Minister for Stephen Barclay, as well as the Brexit negotiator for the EU, Michel Barnier, lasted more than three hours and ended without result. May's positions before voting in parliament on March 12 deteriorated, which simultaneously increased the likelihood of leaving the EU without an agreement.

This scenario is traditionally regarded as negative for the pound, and therefore, the likelihood of GBP/USD growth today is low. The resistance of 1.3198 is unlikely to be passed and the pound will tend to approach the lower limit of the range to 1.3096.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Indicator analysis. Daily review for March 7, 2019 for the EUR / USD pair

Trend analysis (Fig. 1).

On Thursday, the price may continue to move down. The first lower target 1.1291 is a historical support level (blue dashed line). Day news - are possible options. For a downward movement, you need to break through this level.

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Fig. 1 (daily schedule).

Comprehensive analysis:

- indicator analysis - down;

- Fibonacci levels - down;

- volumes - down;

- candlestick analysis - up;

- trend analysis - down;

- Bollinger lines - up;

- weekly schedule - down.

General conclusion:

On Thursday, the price may continue to move down. The first lower target 1.1291 is a historical support level (blue dashed line). Day news - are possible options. For a downward movement, you need to break through this level.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Trading plan for 03/07/2019

Yesterday, standing still, albeit with slight fluctuations up and down, essentially confirms the idea that the dollar's strengthening on Tuesday was a preparation for today's meeting of the board of the European Central Bank on monetary policy. After all, even the ADP data on employment, which showed an increase by 183 thousand instead of 189 thousand, against 300 thousand in the previous month, did not have any particular effect.

Today, in addition to the European Central Bank meeting, as well as the subsequent press conference of Mario Draghi, which are in the spotlight, a number of macroeconomic data are also published. Of course, they will not have any impact on the market, but they should never be forgotten. In particular, in the UK, according to Halifax, the growth rate of housing prices can accelerate from 0.8% to 1.0%. In the United States, data will be released on applications for unemployment benefits, the number of which should decrease by 30 thousand, and only due to repeated applications. The number of initial bids may remain unchanged. In Europe, the final data on GDP for the fourth quarter will be released, and the funny thing is that now there are attempts to explain what happened on Tuesday by rumors that the ECB will lower its forecast for economic growth and inflation. But even preliminary GDP data showed a slowdown in economic growth from 1.6% to 1.2%, and the final data will almost certainly confirm them. That is, the slowdown in the economy is not something new and unexpected, since this has been known for a long time. Apparently, Mario Draghi will only express concern with this fact and mention the need to be careful and watch what is happening carefully. In other words, the head of the European Central Bank will say that it's not worth waiting for the refinancing rate to increase this year. But after all, this is exactly what he already said, and more recently. So, there will be no effect from his words. Of course, if Mario Draghi does not hint that the regulator is still considering the possibility of raising the refinancing rate by the end of the year. This will be the reason for the explosive growth of the single European currency, which will drag the pound along.

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The euro/dollar currency pair, after an active downward move, reached a range level of 1.1300, where it formed stagnation as a result. Likely to assume a temporary turbulence in the run-up to the ECB meeting, 1,1290/1.1320, after which a surge is possible, where traders analyze boundaries on the subject of a breakdown.

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After reaching the level of 1,3100, the pound/dollar currency pair slowed down the downtrend, as a result of a pullback followed by a stagnation of 1,3130/1,3200. It is likely to assume the preservation of the current amplitude fluctuations within the existing boundaries, where traders monitor the boundaries for breakdown.

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The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

EUR/USD: plan for the European session on March 7. The ECB announces LTRO program

To open long positions on EURUSD you need:

The market situation has not changed ahead of an important meeting of the European Central Bank, at which it can announce the launch of the LTRO refinancing program. At the moment, the main task of the bulls is to return to the resistance of 1.1311, consolidating on which can lead to an upward correction in the area of 1.1337 and 1.1368, where I recommend taking profits. If the ECB reveals the details of the refinancing program, the pressure on the euro may increase. In this scenario, it is best to expect to open long positions on the rebound from the support of 1.1279 and 1.1257.

To open short positions on EURUSD you need:

Despite the fact that the downward trend in the euro gradually slows down while trading is below 1.1311, the pressure on the pair will continue, and failure to consolidate at this level in the first half of the day will be a direct signal for further selling of the euro in order to update support for 1.1279 and 1.1257, where I recommend to lock in profits. In case of growth above 1.1311, you can count on short positions immediately on the rebound from the resistance of 1.1337, and it is better to sell on the rebound from a high of 1.1368.

Indicator signals:

Moving averages

Trade is conducted in the area of 30-day and 50-day moving averages, which indicates market uncertainty.

Bollinger bands

Bollinger Bands indicator volatility is very low, which does not give signals on market entry.

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  • Description of indicators
  • MA (moving average) 50 days - yellow
  • MA (moving average) 30 days - green
  • MACD: fast EMA 12, slow EMA 26, SMA 9
  • Bollinger Bands 20
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Technical analysis for EUR/USD for March 7, 2019

EUR/USD remains in a bearish trend above short-term support of 1.13. A daily close below 1.13 will open the way for a move towards 1.12. We remain bearish as long as price is below 1.1430.

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Red line major trend line resistance

Green line - support trend line

EUR/USD remains in a bearish trend as long as price is below the red trend line resistance. The recent rejection at the resistance around 1.14-1.1430 opens the way for a decline towards the green support trend line around 1.12 or lower. Short-term support is at 1.1280 and resistance at 1.1330. Breaking above 1.1330 could push price towards 1.1360 or even better towards 1.14. However this is the least likely scenario. A break below 1.1280 would push price towards 1.1230-1.12.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com