Global macro overview for 27/12/2017

After the Christmas break, investors on global commodity markets returned to activity. Tuesday's session brought a dynamic rise in Crude Oil prices - the price of WTI oil increased by 2.6%, reaching around USD 60 per barrel, that is to this year's price record and at the same time the highest level since mid-2015.

The direct cause of such a clear increase in oil prices during yesterday's session was the disruption of the oil industry in Libya. Due to the explosion, supplies of about 90,000 barrels of crude oil were interrupted per day by oil pipeline transporting the raw material to the important port of Es Sider. The problem is serious, although in the Libyan market disturbances in crude oil extraction and transport have been occurring regularly for several years, which is why investors' reaction may be short-lived.

In turn, the situation in the North Sea is slowly returning to normal. In the first half of December, the key oil pipeline Forties, transporting up to 450,000 barrels of crude oil per day, was closed due to leaks detected during routine inspections. Currently, the oil flow through Forties is gradually being restored, and the pipeline operator announces that at the beginning of the year the situation will return to its pre-failure state.

Let's now take a look at the Crude Oil technical picture at the H4 time frame. After the triangle breakout, the market has hit the level of $60.02 before the slight pull-back was taking place. The nearest technical support is seen at the level of $59.04 and it looks like this level will be tested soon as the overbought trading conditions confirm the deeper pull-back scenario.

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Global macro overview for 27/12/2017

Post-Christmas trading conditions on the financial markets are calm. In the absence of the "human factor" at Christmas, however, there was a temporary, available drop in the EUR/USD rate, which was reflected in related pairs. Traders can treat the behavior of trading algorithms as a clue for the re-evaluation of the Euro. At the beginning of the new year, the market participants should expect major and more durable rally on EUR/USD.

Slightly weaker moods on Wall Street with a stable US Dollar, a decline in the long-term, but a further increase in short-term yields on US government bonds is the picture of the first post-Christmas session in the US. Goods recorded a clear rise in prices. Oil and Copper prices have jumped to the highest level in 2.5 years. Another session up in a row was also on Gold.

Liquidity in the markets is generally reduced, therefore, the changes taking place in the last days of the year must be approached with a certain distance. Nevertheless, on these assets, where there is a continuation of the movements from before the holiday break, one can speak about the existence of a potential that will most likely also be revealed next year. However, the Dollar and the Euro cannot be discussed in this situation, because both currencies went yesterday against the prevailing tendencies. However, ahead of us are 3 full days of trading, which can potentially give good clues on how the markets will behave in the first days of the new year.

Let's now take a look at the Gold technical picture at the H4 time frame. The price has hit the 78% Fibo retracements at the level of $1,285 after a gap up from the level of $1,277. The next target for bulls is the technical resistance area at the level of $1,288 - $1,290. Please notice the overbought trading conditions at the current time frame. which might result in a temporary pull-back towards the level of $1,275.

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Bitcoin analysis for December 27, 2017

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Bitcoin (BTC) has been trading upwards. The price tested the level of $16,445 . A massive influx of new clients begging you to take their money is the best kind of problem any business could dream of having. Nevertheless, bitcoin exchanges are now having to cope with such a situation by finding ways to reduce the load. As a result new traders are left with fewer options as, one by one, venues have been closing their doors to clients. Technical picture looks neutral to bearish.

Trading recommendations:

According to the 1H time - frame, I found that strong resistance at the price of $16,000 is on the test. I also found an overbought condition on the stochastic oscillator, which is a sign that buying looks risky. My advice is to watch for potential selling opportunities. The downward targets are set at the price of $14,030 and at the price of $12,870.

Support/Resistance

$16,445 – Intraday resistance (price action)

$16,030 – Fibonacci 61.8 % resistance (price action)

$14,030 – First objective target

$12,870 – Second Objective target

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USD/JPY analysis for December 27, 2017

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Recently, the USD/JPY pair has been trading downwards. The price tested the level of 113.12. Anyway, according to the 30M time – frame, I found a broken pennant formation in the background, which is a sign that selling looks risky. My advice is to watch for potential buying opportunities. I have placed Fibonacci expansion to find potential upward targets. I found Fibonacci expansion 100% at the price of 113.40 and Fibonacci expansion 161.8% at the price of 113.60.

Resistance levels:

R1: 113.35

R2: 113.45

R3: 113.58

Support levels:

S1: 113.11

S2: 112.00

S3: 112.88

Trading recommendations for today: watch for potential buying opportunities.

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EUR/USD analysis for December 27, 2017

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Recently, the EUR/USD pair has been trading upwards. The price tested the level of 1.1899. Anyway, according to the 30M time – frame, I found that strong reistance at the price of 1.1900 is on the test, which is a sign that buying looks risky. I also found a hidden bearish divergence on the stochastic oscillator, which is a sign of weakness. My advice is to watch for potential selling opportunities. The downward targets are set at the price of 1.1870 and at the price of 1.1820.

Resistance levels:

R1: 1.1875

R2: 1.1893

R3: 1.1905

Support levels:

S1: 1.1844

S2: 1.1830

S3: 1.1810

Trading recommendations for today: watch for potential selling opportunities.

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Intraday technical levels and trading recommendations for EUR/USD for December 27, 2017

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Monthly Outlook

In January 2015, the EUR/USD pair moved below the major demand levels near 1.2050-1.2100 (multiple previous bottoms set in July 2012 and June 2010). Hence, a long-term bearish target was projected toward 0.9450.

In March 2015, EUR/USD bears challenged the monthly demand level around 1.0500, which had been previously reached in August 1997.

In the longer term, the level of 0.9450 remains a projected target if any monthly candlestick achieves bearish closure below the depicted monthly demand level of 1.0500.

However, the EUR/USD pair has been trapped within the depicted consolidation range (1.0500-1.1450) until the current bullish breakout was executed above 1.1450.

The current bullish breakout above 1.1450 allowed a quick bullish advance towards 1.2100 where recent evidence of bearish rejection was expressed (Note the previous Monthly candlestick of September).

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Daily Outlook

In January 2017, the previous downtrend was reversed when the Inverted Head and Shoulders pattern was established around 1.0500. Since then, evident bullish momentum has been expressed on the chart.

As anticipated, the ongoing bullish momentum allowed the EUR/USD pair to pursue further bullish advance towards 1.1415-1.1520 (Previous Daily Supply-Zone).

The daily supply zone failed to pause the ongoing bullish momentum. Instead, evident bullish breakout was expressed towards the price level of 1.2100 where the depicted Head and Shoulders reversal pattern was expressed.

If the recent bearish breakout persists below 1.1700 (Neckline of the reversal pattern), a quick bearish decline should be expected towards the price zone of 1.1415-1.1520 (Initial targets for the depicted H&S pattern).

Bearish target for the depicted Head and Shoulders pattern extends towards 1.1350. However, to pursue towards the mentioned target level, significant bearish pressure is needed to be applied against the mentioned zone (1.1415-1.1520).

However, In November, recent price action around the price zone of 1.1520-1.1415 indicated evident bullish recovery. This hindered further bearish decline which allowed the current bullish pullback to occur towards the price level of 1.1900.

Trade Recommendations

The price levels around 1.1900-1.1950 were suggested for a valid short-term SELL entry. S/L was lowered to 1.1900 to offset the associated risk

Remaining T/P levels to be located at 1.1700 and 1.1590.

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NZD/USD Intraday technical levels and trading recommendations for December 27, 2017

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Daily Outlook

A recent bullish breakout above the downtrend line took place on May 22. Since then, the market has been bullish as depicted on the chart.

This resulted in a quick bullish advance towards next price zones around 0.7150-0.7230 (Key-Zone) and 0.7310-0.7380 which was temporarily breached to the upside.

Recent bearish pullback was executed towards the price zone of 0.7310-0.7380 (newly-established demand-zone) which failed to offer enough bullish support for the NZD/USD pair.

Re-consolidation below the price level of 0.7300 enhanced the bearish side of the market. This brought the NZD/USD pair again towards 0.7230-0.7150 (Key-Zone) which failed to pause the ongoing bearish momentum.

An atypical Head and Shoulders pattern was expressed on the depicted chart which initiated bearish reversal.

As expected, the price level of 0.7050 failed to offer enough bullish support for the NZD/USD pair. That's why, further bearish decline was expected towards 0.6800 (Reversal pattern bearish target).

Evident signs of bullish recovery was expressed around the recent low (0.6780). That's why, a bullish pullback is expected towards 0.7050.

Moreover, further bullish advance should be expected towards 0.7150 if enough bullish momentum is expressed above the price level of 0.7050.

Trade Recommendations:

An inverted Head and Shoulders pattern was established on the chart indicating high probability of bullish reversal.

That's why, the price zone of 0.6800-0.6830 was considered for a short-term BUY entry. Bullish persistence above 0.6950 (neckline) is mandatory to pursue towards next bullish targets.

S/L should be moved to 0.6900 to secure some profits. T/P level remains projected towards 0.7110 and 0.7200.

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Technical analysis of NZD/USD for December 27, 2017

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Overview:

  • Pivot point : 0.7029.
  • The NZD/USD pair bullish trend from the support levels of 0.6950 and 0.6985. Currently, the price is in a bullish channel.
  • This is confirmed by the RSI indicator signaling that we are still in a bullish trending market. As the price is still above the moving average (100), immediate support is seen at 0.6950 (major support), which coincides with a golden ratio (61.8% of Fibonacci).
  • Consequently, the first support is set at the level of 0.6985. So, the market is likely to show signs of a bullish trend around the spot of 0.6985. In other words, buy orders are recommended above the first support (0.6985) with the first target at the level of 0.7065.
  • Furthermore, if the trend is able to breakout through the first resistance level of 0.7065.
  • We should see the pair climbing towards the bext target (0.7090) to test it. It would also be wise to consider where to place a stop loss; this should be set below the second support of 0.6953.
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Technical analysis of USD/CHF for December 27, 2017

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Overview:

  • The USD/CHF pair is showing signs of strength following a breakout of the highest level of 0.9900. On the H1 chart. the level of 0.9903coincides with 50% of Fibonacci, which is expected to act as pivot point today. Since the trend is above the 50% Fibonacci level, the market is still in an uptrend. But, major support is seen at the level of 0.9828. Furthermore, the trend is still showing strength above the moving average (100). Thus, the market is indicating a bullish opportunity above the above-mentioned support levels, for that the bullish outlook remains the same as long as the 100 EMA is headed to the upside. Therefore, strong support will be found at the level of 0.9828 providing a clear signal to buy above the support levels of 0.9830 or 0.9900 with a target seen at 0.9920. If the trend breaks the minor resistance at 0.9920, the pair will move upwards continuing the bullish trend development to the level 0.9945 in order to test the daily resistance 2. However, the price spot of 0.9828 remains a significant support zone. Thus, the trend is still bullish as long as the level of 0.9828 is not breached.
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Bitcoin analysis for 27/12/2017

The Bitcoin price has already gained almost 4,000 dollars since the last corrective drop. This movement has weakened the altcoins. Last week, when prices fell below $12,000, we went through a new round of accusations about the created bubble. Now, Bitcoin owners are - as Jameson Lopp said - "more bullish than ever". The engineer who has led various known investors in the world of crypto still expresses confidence in Bitcoin's future and neglects his current technical shortcomings. He said on Twitter: "I am more optimistic about Bitcoin than in the last 5 years. Events that have been published are just the tip of the iceberg."

Moreover, John McAfee also spoke about the Bitcoin again and he has confirmed the current status quo Bitcoin network, saying: "I've been a technician all my life and if you are worried about Bitcoin, you do not need it anymore. The world of economy is waiting for the right solution, and it is Bitcoin, which is still the only guaranteed investment in the world of crypto." McAfee added that by the end of 2018, Bitcoin will be ten times more expensive than it is today, still sticking to its announcement, which predicts that by 2020, it will reach the price of one million dollars. On his Twitter, he is also known for regularly describing the selected cryptocurrency, which, according to him, will succeed. Providing such information immediately results in a marked increase in the price. The Internet is rumbling about an alleged leak that SiaCoin was supposed to be another project described by McAfee

Let's now take a look at the Bitcoin technical picture at the H4 time frame. The price had bounced from the level of $11,130 and went up towards the technical resistnace at the level of $15,486 that was violated as well. Currently, the price is trading just below the 61%Fibo at the level of $16,376 and a breakout higher would indicate a further rally towards the level of $17,805. The long-term trend remains up (bullish).

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Trading plan 12/27/2017

Trading plan 12/27/2017

The general picture: The last three days of trading before the New Year.

Generally speaking, it is necessary to get a profit for the next days. Practice shows that the market during this period may give a surprise, which can not be considered as a gift.

However, if you are in a series of transactions and the market simply has to give you a profit:

- It makes sense to wait for a strong directional movement in European currencies and the yen against the dollar.

- For a long time, the franc and the yen (dollar franc and dollar) were trying to grow and also growth attempts were made in the euro and pound against the dollar.

It is clear that some players of these pairs are wrong.

We will buy the euro for a breakthrough of 1.1900 but ready to sell from 1.1735.

On the pound:

Buying for a breakthrough at 1.3470.

Or

Selling for the breakthrough at 1.3280.

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* The presented market analysis is informative and does not constitute a guide to the transaction.

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Trading plan for 27/12/2017

Just before the start of the European session, a slight retreat of oil is observed. The commodity prices are losing 0.5%, but still remain close to the 2.5-year highs. On the precious metals market, the leading one is palladium with 1.3% gains. Wednesday's morning on the currency market is marked by a retreat of the American currency. With regard to the US Dollar, its Australian counterpart strengthened the most (by 0.3%), placing the AUD/USD rate around 0.7750. A slightly more modest move towards the north was recorded by the euro (0.2%), which in the next few hours could push the EUR/USD pair back towards the round level of 1.1900.

On Wednesday 27th of December, the event calendar is light with important news releases. The only two worth mentioning are the CB Consumer Confidence and Pending Home Sales data from the US.

EUR/USD analysis for 27/12/2017:

The economic calendar is not very exciting just before the end of the year. In the afternoon pack of data from the US economy, the most anticipated will be indications of consumer sentiment by Conference Board (04:00 pm GMT), which, according to Bloomberg's expectations, should slightly deteriorate. In the meantime, data from the US housing market will be released. A series of recent indications from both the primary and secondary market clearly fills optimism with today's estimates of newly-signed house purchase agreements (04:00 pm GMT). We expect that the above events will not contribute to robust shifts in the currency market as liquidity keeps drying up.

Let's now take a look at the EUR/USD technical picture at the H4 time frame. The price keeps trading sideways between the levels of 1.1828 - 1.1901 with the momentum hovering around its fifty level. Without a clear breakout above or below this level, the market will continue trading sideways. The key technical support is at the level of 1.1725 and the key technical resistance lies at the level of 1.1961.

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Market Snapshot: AUD/USD extends rally

The price of AUD/USD has broken out above the 38% Fibo level at 0.7738 and keeps rallying towards the next Fibo retracement at the level of 0.7813. The momentum is strong, so the chances of hitting this level before the downtrend will continue remain solid.

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Market Snapshot: US Dollar Index close to the channel support

The price of the US Dollar Index is getting closer to the channel support around the level of 93.04. After the Fed interest rate hike earlier this month, the market reversed toward the support level at 93.32 and then tried to rally, but the bull camp was too weak to make a new high above the level of 94.25. The key technical support remains at the level of 92.49.

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Daily analysis of major pairs for December 27, 2017

EUR/USD: The EUR/USD pair has been able to maintain its bullishness so far. Bulls are still intent on pushing price higher, and thus, the resistance lines at 1.1900 and 1.1950 could be reached this week. A strong movement that could take price beyond the resistance line at 1.1950 may not be possible this week.

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USD/CHF: The USD/CHF pair is yet to make any meaningful movement this week. The market is not expected to make any significant movement this week (because volatility would thin out). Price is thus expected to oscillate between the resistance levels at 0.9950 and support level at 0.9800 within the next several trading days.

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GBP/USD: This pair has not made any changes to the neutral bias on it. Price is thus expected to oscillate between the accumulation territory at 1.3250 and the distribution territory at 1.3500 within the next several trading days. However, a breakout will occur early January.

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USD/JPY: There is a slight (negligible) downwards propensity in the market, which is not strong enough to override the current short-term bullish bias on the market. The bullishness in the market could be sustained until the end of this year (although it is unlikely that a strong movement would be witnessed).

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EUR/JPY: This pair is currently testing the supply zone at 134.50, and it may eventually breach it to the upside, for the most probable direction in the market is upwards. The EMA 11 is above the EMA 56, and the RSI period 14 is above the level 50. There is Bullish Confirmation Pattern in the market remain intact.

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Daily analysis of Silver for December 26, 2017

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Overview

Silver price tests the resistance line that appears on the chart, moving near the most important resistance at 16.56, noting that the EMA50 meets this level to add more strength to it, while stochastic continues to move at the overbought areas. Therefore, these factors support the continuation of the bearish trend scenario that its main target located at 15.49, noting that breaching 16.56 will lead the price to start recovery attempts and regain the main bullish trend again. The expected trading range for today is between 16.10 support and 16.50 resistance.

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