Daily analysis of EUR/JPY for April 2, 2018

EUR/JPY

The EUR/JPY is bearish in the long-term, and rather neutral in the short-term. Price is currently choppy as things are now in a range. There is a supply zone at 132.00 and a demand zone at 130.00.

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As long as the price saunters between these two zones, the short-term neutrality will hold. There is a higher probability that the price will go southwards (in agreement with the long-term outlook) when a breakout does occur. There is still a Bearish Confirmation Pattern in the market, and that would become more important as the price goes further downwards, reaching other demand zones.

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Daily analysis of USD/JPY for April 2, 2018

USD/JPY

The market is expected to go downwards. The trading instrument is bearish in the long-term, and bullish in the short-term. There is a Bullish Confirmation Pattern in the market, at least on a short-term basis. The price rose 220 pips last week, to test the supply level at 107.00, and then retraced below the supply level at 106.50.

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The supply level at 107.00 has thus become a major barrier for any bullish effort, as the price goes downwards towards the demand levels at 106.00, 105.50, and 105.00. The outlook on the JPY pairs is bearish for this week, and for this month, which means that long trades are not recommended (except in a very short-term context). There will be great volatility on the JPY pairs, which would most probably favor bears.

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Daily analysis of USD/CHF for April 2, 2018

USD/CHF

This bias on this currency trading instrument is bullish – but it is currently not a strong bias. Since testing the support level at 0.9200 (February 16), the price has managed to gain about 360 pips. Last week, it managed to stay briefly above the resistance level at 0.9550, after which it closed below it again.

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Things will go upward when volatility arises. A rise in the market is expected this week, which would also be fueled by the weakness in EURUSD. The resistance levels at 0.9550, 0.9600, and 0.9650 could be reached before the end of the week.

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BITCOIN Analysis for April 2, 2018

Bitcoin has been quite volatile recently at the edge of $7,000 price area from where certain bullish pressure is expected at present. As for the current market sentiment, most of market participants are quite pessimistic about further momentum in bitcoin, so the market lacks bullish pressure recently. After completing the first quarter of 2018, which was quite negative for the crypto market, certain rebounds are expected this quarter which may lead to some bullish pressure in the market. As for the current scenario, the price is likely to proceed higher towards $8,500 price area in the coming days as the price remains above $6,500 with a daily close. A daily close above $7,500 will boost the impulsive bullish pressure in the market, resulting in a better probability for the upcoming bullish momentum.

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Fundamental Analysis of USD/JPY for April 2, 2018

USD/JPY has been quite volatile above the 105.50 price area from where the market has rejected the bears for several times in a row recently. JPY has been the dominant currency in the pair since it bounced off the 114.50 price area after certain volatility and correction. The economic calendat contains some macroeconomic reports from the US this week like Non-Farm Employment Change, Average Hourly Earnings, and Unemployment Rate. They are expected to be quite optimistic for the currency. So, USD is sure to get certain bias from the market sentiment. Today, US ISM Manufacturing PMI report is going to be published which is expected to have a slight decrease to 60.1 from the previous figure of 60.8, Construction Spending is expected to increase to 0.4% from the previous value of 0.0%, ISM Manufacturing Prices is expected to decrease to 72.5 from the previous figure of 74.2, and Final Manufacturing PMI is expected to be unchanged at 55.7. On the other hand, today BoJ Tankan Manufacturing Index report was published with a decrease to 24 from the previous figure of 26 which was expected to be at 25, Tankan Non-Manufacturing Index report also decreased to 23 from the previous figure of 25 which was expected to be at 24, and Final Manufacturing PMI showed a slight decrease to 53.1 which was expected to be unchanged at 53.2. As for the current scenario, JPY is likely to lose some momentum against USD amid discouraging reports this week, whereas certain volatility may occur which might lead to short-term gains on the JPY side. However, the US economic reports provide s fresh impetus for the currency this week, further bullish pressure is expected in the future.

Now let us look at the technical view. The price is currently residing at the edge of a dynamic level of 20 EMA below the 107.30 price area that indicates a certain bearish bias is still left in the market. This might lead the price to proceed lower towards 105.50 in the coming days. If the price rejects off the 105.50 with a daily close, which is more probable this week, further bullish pressure towards 107.30 and later towards 108.50 is expected. On the other hand, if the price closes below 105.50 with a daily close, further bearish pressure will be expected. For now, after having a bearish false break below 105.50, the market sentiment is set to push higher in the future. As the price remains above 105.50, bearish intervention is most probable in the future.

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NZD/USD Intraday technical levels and trading recommendations for for April 2, 2018

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In November 2017, evident signs of bullish recovery was expressed around the depicted low (0.6780). An inverted Head and Shoulders pattern was expressed around these price levels.

The price zone of 0.7140-0.7250 (prominent Supply-Zone) failed to pause the ongoing bullish momentum. Instead, a bullish breakout above 0.7250 was expressed on January 11.

That's why, a quick bullish movement was expected towards the depicted supply zone (0.7320-0.7390) where evident bearish rejection and a valid SELL entry were expected.

On February 2, a bearish engulfing daily candlestick was expressed off the price level of 0.7390.

Moreover, a double-top reversal pattern followed by another lower High were expressed around the price zone (0.7320-0.7390) where a valid SELL entry was offered as expected.

A bearish breakdown of 0.7300 (neckline) is needed to confirm the depicted reversal pattern. A bearish projection target would be located around 0.7050 and 0.7000.

Otherwise, the NZD/USD pair remains trapped between the price levels of 0.7200 and 0.7350.

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Intraday technical levels and trading recommendations for EUR/USD for April 2, 2018

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Monthly Outlook

In January 2015, the EUR/USD pair moved below the major demand levels near 1.2100-1.2200 (multiple previous bottoms set in July 2012 and June 2010). Hence, a long-term bearish target was projected toward 0.9450.

In March 2015, EUR/USD bears challenged the monthly demand level around 1.0500, which had been previously reached in August 1997.

In the longer term, the level of 0.9450 remains a projected target if any monthly candlestick achieves bearish closure below the depicted monthly demand level of 1.0500.

However, the EUR/USD pair has been trapped within the depicted consolidation range (1.0500-1.1450) until the current bullish breakout was executed above 1.1450 and recently above 1.2075.

Another bullish breakout above 1.2075 was expressed on the chart. This hinders the bearish momentum allowing bullish advancement to occur towards 1.2750 provided that the bullish breakout above the price level of 1.2075 remains defended by the bulls.

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Daily Outlook

The EUR/USD pair remains trapped between the price levels of 1.2500 and 1.2200 until breakout occurs in either directions.

Daily persistence above 1.2470-1.2500 was needed to confirm a recent bullish flag continuation pattern with projected targets around the price level of 1.2750.

However, significant signs of bearish reversal were manifested around the price levels of 1.2400 (backside of the depicted broken uptrend). This was manifested in the bearish engulfing daily candlestick of March 8.

Hence, the EUR/USD pair remains bearish below the price levels of 1.2400 unless obvious daily bullish support is offered around the price level of 1.2300.

Moreover, the depicted double-top reversal pattern needs bearish breakdown of the level of 1.2200 to be achieved on a daily basis. Projection target would be located around 1.2070-1.1990.

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USD/JPY analysis for April 02, 2018

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Recently, the USD/JPY pair has been trading downwards. As I expected, the price tested the level of 106.12. According to the H4 time – frame, I found that price rejected from upper band (+2.1 standard deviations), which is sign that buyers got exhausted. I also found rejection from the supply trendline and hidden bearish divergence on B% oscillator, which is another sign of weakness. My advice is to watch for potential selling opportunities. The downward targets are set at the price of 105.80 and at the price of 104.60.

Resistance levels:

R1: 106.49

R2: 106.72

R3: 106.91

Support levels:

S1: 106.08

S2: 105.89

S3: 105.67

Trading recommendations for today: watch for potential selling opportunities.

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Fundamental Analysis of EUR/USD for April 2, 2018

EUR/USD has been quite corrective and volatile recently after breaking below the 1.2350 price area with an impulsive daily close. Due to the observance of the Easter Monday, no economic reports are due today on the EUR side. Later this week, German Retail Sales report is expected to show an increase to 0.7% from the previous negative value of -0.7% and CPI Flash Estimate report is going to be published which is expected to increase to 1.4% from the previous value of 1.1%. Looking back, USD failed to sustain its bearish momentum in the pair due to worse economic reports which failed to provide a fresh impetus for the currency. Ahead of the high impact economic reports this week including Non-Farm Employment Change, Average Hourly Earnings and Unemployment rate, today US ISM Manufacturing PMI report is going to be published which is expected to have a slight decrease to 60.1 from the previous figure of 60.8, Construction Spending is expected to increase to 0.4% from the previous value of 0.0%, ISM Manufacturing Prices is expected to decrease to 72.5 from the previous figure of 74.2, and Final Manufacturing PMI is expected to be unchanged at 55.7. As for the current scenario, the US economic reports are forecasted to be quite optimistic that is likely to make a positive impact on the USD, thus pushing the price further downward in the coming days. Ahead of the high impact economic reports on Friday, which are also predicted to have better readings, the pair is expected to be quite USD biased.

Now let us look at the technical view. The price is currently residing at the edge of dynamic level 20 EMA resistance and also below the important price area of 1.2350 from where it is expected to push lower towards 1.2260 and later towards 1.2080 support area in the coming days. Despite having a bullish daily close on Friday, the bears are still quite strong currently and as the price remains below 1.2350 with a daily close, the bearish bias is expected to continue.

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Ichimoku cloud indicator analysis of USDX for April 2, 2018

The Dollar index remains below important trend line resistance but bulls fight to keep price above the cloud. The next step for bulls will be to break the important resistance of 90.50.

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Blue line - resistance

The Dollar index is trading above the 4hour Kumo (cloud), but the price has made a lower high and remains below the trend line resistance. In order to have a confirm trend reversal to the bullish side, bulls will need to break above the 90.20-90.40 resistance area. Support is at 89.80.

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Long-term trend remains bearish as the price is still below the weekly cloud. The price is above the tankan-sen so there are some chances for bulls to see a big bounce towards cloud resistance at 94. Kijun-sen weekly resistance is at 91.70. Only a break above this level will give bulls some chances of seeing a medium-term rally.

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Analysis of Gold for April 02, 2018

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Recently, Gold has been trading upwards. The price tested the level of $1,331.00. According to the 30M time – frame, I found that a bullish corrective phase is in progress. Anyway, I found a hidden bearish divergence on the moving average oscillator and corrective upward channel. My advice is to watch for a valid breakout of lower diagonal to confirm the bearish continuation. The downward targets are set at the price of $1,321.00 and at the price of $1,307.50.

Resistance levels:

R1: $1,328.60

R2: $1,332.05

R3: $1,335.75

Support levels:

S1: $1,321.45

S2: $1,317.75

S3: $1,314.30

Trading recommendations for today: watch for potential selling opportunities.

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Ichimoku cloud indicator analysis of Gold for April 2, 2018

Gold price has found support in our target area of $1,320-30 and where the 4 hour Ichimoku cloud was found. The 61.8% Fibonacci retracement was also in that area. Gold is now bouncing as expected.

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Gold price is trading inside the 4 hour Kumo. Resistance is at $1,334 and most importantly at $1,339. A break above the kijun-sen in the 4 hour chart will be a very important bullish sign. Gold price has support at $1,320. Bulls do not want to see the price below the cloud again and do not want to see the recent low broken. If this low is broken we should expect Gold price to reach $1,300 at least.

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Red line -long-term resistance

Blue line -short-term support

Gold price has not managed to close above the red trend line resistance so far. Price has been mainly moving sideways the last few weeks in a trading range of $1,300-$1,350. If bulls manage to close a week above $1,350-60 we should then expect $1,400 to be challenged.

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Trading plan 04/02/2018

Trading plan 04/02/2018

The overall picture: We expect volatility to grow in the market.

There are several factors that can revive the market in a new week:

1. The beginning of a new month and a quarter after a long weekend. The situation in large funds was reevaluated and purchases (or, conversely, sales) of assets would follow.

2. For the new week, there are a number of important data on the US: employment reports on Wednesday and Friday (non-pharma); ISM indices on Monday and Wednesday (at 14:00 London time because of summertime in the US).

3. As before, over the markets like the sword of Damocles, the question of the beginning of the Trump trade war with China hangs whereas nothing has been canceled and concrete measures are being prepared.

Against this background, strong movements are very likely.

For GBP / USD pair:

I still think the pound is more stable against the dollar than the euro.

We buy on strong declines from the level of 1.3900.

At the same time, it is possible to purchase at the level of 1.4250 for a breakout.

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Technical analysis of GBP/USD for April 02, 2018

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Overview:

The GBP/USD pair continues to move downwards from the areas of 1.4066 and 1.3972. Last week, the pair dropped from the level of 1.4110 to 1.4024. The level of 1.4066 coincides with a ratio of 50% Fibonacci on the H1 chart. Today, resistance is seen at the levels of 1.4066 and 1.4110. So, we expect the price to set below the strong resistance at the levels of 1.4066 and 1.4110; because the price is in a bearish channel now. Amid the previous events, the price is still moving between the levels of 1.4110 and 1.3972. In overall, we still prefer the bearish scenario as long as the price is below the level of 1.4110. Furthermore, if the GBP/USD pair is able to break out the bottom at 1.4024, the market will decline further to 1.3972 (daily support 2). Moreover, the price will probably fall into a bearish trend in order to go further towards the strong support at 1.3930 to test it again. On the other hand, if the price closes above the strong resistance of 1.4110, the best location for a stop loss order is seen above 1.4168.

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Breaking forecast 04/02/2018

Breaking forecast 04/02/2018

EURUSD: Everything is ready to break the range.

The levels for breakthrough of the long range became even stronger by the beginning of the week. If you look at the daily chart, you can clearly see that the euro exchange rate ranges from 1.2150 to 1.2550 starting from the end of January - that is,for two full months. A breakthrough, as they say, is ripe.

The real range of the daily range is 1.2480 at the top and 1.2238 at the bottom.

Therefore: buy from 1.2480, stop at 1.2435, profit at 1.2680.

Sell at1.2238, stop at 1.2283, the profit is 1.2000.

However, there is also an entrance point down a more aggressive variant, according to an incomplete daily level:

Sell at 1.2280, stop at 1.2325, the profit is 1.2000.

The new week brings a lot of news: The US employment report (non-farm payrolls) on Friday April 6, respectively the preliminary report on employment from ADP on Wednesday 4 April, and the reports on the ISM - the first on Monday.

A breakout of the range this week is very likely.

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Technical analysis of EUR/USD for April 02, 2018

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Overview:

The EUR/USD pair will continue rising from the levels of 1.2305 and1.2347. So, the support is found at the level of 1.2305, which represents the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level. Since the trend is above the 38.2% Fibonacci level, the market is still in an uptrend. Therefore, the EUR/USD pair is continuing with a bullish trend from the new support of 1.2305. The level of 1.2347 acts as a daily pivot point on the H1 chart. The current price is set at the level of 1.2325. Equally important, the price is in a bullish channel. According to the previous events, we expect the EUR/USD pair to move between 1.2305 and 1.2445. Therefore, strong support will be formed at the level of 1.2347 providing a clear signal to buy with the targets seen at 1.2305. If the trend breaks the support at 1.2347 (pivot), the pair will move upwards continuing the development of the bullish trend to the level 1.2445 in order to test the daily resistance 2. In the same time frame, resistance is seen at the levels of 1.2413, 1.2445 and 1.2477. The stop loss should always be taken into account for that it will be reasonable to set your stop loss at the level of 1.2267.

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