Elliott wave analysis of EUR/NZD for November 17 - 2014

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Tody's support and resistance levels:


R3: 1.5877


R2: 1.5833


R1: 1.5792


Current spot: 1.5785


S1: 1.5742


S2: 1.5717


S3: 1.5705


Technical summary:


We are still looking for the final spike lower to the ideal target at 1.5705 to end wave 4 and set the stage for a strong rally in wave 5 higher towards 1.6446 on the way to 1.6800. Short term, we could see a small new rally to 1.5877 or maybe even slightly above before the final decline to 1.5705. In the short run, a break below 1.5746 will indicate that a spike towards 1.5705 is unfolding.


Trading recommendation:


We are still looking to buy EUR at 1.5720 with a stop at 1.5520.


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Elliott wave analysis of EUR/JPY for November 17 - 2014

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Today's support and resistance levels:


R3: 145.64


R2: 145.47


R1: 145.08


Current spot: 144.90


S1: 144.78


S2: 144.54


S3: 144.28


Technical summary:


We have just seen the expected rally to 145.92 and this target was even exceeded with a spike to 146.53 before the top was finally in place. Now, we will be looking for a correction towards wave iv at 142.06 before the next impulsive rally higher can be expected. At this point, only a direct break above resistance at 146.53 will call for a continuation higher to 148.30 before the final top is in place.


Trading recommendation:


Our take profit at 145.75 was hit and we booked a nice little profit on our longs from 144.71. We will sell EUR at 145.80 with stop placed at 146.60.


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EUR/NZD : analysis for November 17, 2014

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Overview:


In our last analysis, EUR/NZD has been trading sideways around the price of 1.5775. We are facing a very low volume on the market, so we are waiting for a larger volume and stonger price action. According to the daily time frame, we can observe weak demand on the market, which is a sign that buying EUR/NZD looks risky. Our Fibonacci expansion 100% at the price of 1.5800 is broken, so we may see possible testing the level of 1.5520 (Fibonacci expansion 161.8%). We can observe gap zone around the price of 1.5780-1.5820 (resistance zone). Watch for potential selling opportunities after retracement.


Daily Fibonacci pivot levels:


Resistance levels:


R1: 1.5863


R2: 1.5886


R3: 1.5923


Support levels:


S1: 1.5789


S2: 1.5766


S3: 1.5729


Trading recommendations: Be careful when buying EUR/NZD since our Fibonacci expansion 100% got broken.


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Gold : analysis for November 17, 2014

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GOLDDaily17.png


Overview :


Since our last analysis, gold has been trading upwards. The price tested the level of 1,181.95 in an ultra high volume according to the daily time frame. Since the price has broke the level of 1,179.00 in a high volume and strong price action, we may see possible testing the level of 1,207.00 in the further period. According to the 4h time frame, we can observe buying climax in the background and testing of our Fibonacci expansion 100% at the price of 1,191.00 My advice is to watch for potential buying opoprtunities on the lows.


Daily pivot Fibonacci points:


Resistance levels:


R1:1,185.45


R2: 1,186.73


R3: 1,188.83


Support levels:


S1: 1,181.23


S2: 1,179.93


S3: 1,177.83


Trading recommendations: Selling gold at this stage looks risky since the price has broken the level of 1,179.00.


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Weekly technical levels of GBP/USD for November 17-21, 2014

Weekly technical levels of the GBP/USD pair.


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Trading recommendations :



  • According to the previous events, the price of GBP/USD is going to move between the levels of 1.5735 and 1.5530. The pair will probably go down because the downward trend is still strong. THe weekly pivot point will set at the level of 1.5735, for that it will act as strong resistance today. Therefore, sell below the level of 1.5735 which represents the pivot point in H1 chart with the first target at 1.5592 (the double bottom), then the trend will be able to continue toward the level of 1.5533. Nevertheless, the stop loss should be set at 1.5772.



gbpusdh1.png


Notes :



  • If the trend is of an upside character, then the strength of the currency will be defined as follows: GBP is an uptrend and USD is a downtrend.

  • Fibonacci retracement is used to determine accurate psychological levels of support and resistance. The period of time should be taken into account.

  • Fibonacci is in a range trade; it looks like the trend is trapped and going up or down. If you sell or buy for a long term in this period, you will surely lose your profit.


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Weekly technical levels of EUR/USD for November 17-21, 2014

The weekly technical levels of EUR/USD pair.


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Overview:



  • According to the previous events, the price of EUR/USD pair is going to move between 1.2545 and 1.2430 from now until tomorrow. So, it should be noted that the level of 1.2545 is going to form the double top in H1 chart. Also, it should be noticed that the market was quite stable and trend was also rather clear (downward) since the last month. Therefore, we expect a bearish market today from the area of 1.2545. Thus, sell below the level of 1.2545 (this level represents a minor resistance today) with the first target of 1.2488 to test the weekly pivot point. It might resume to 1.2430 in order to reach the weekly support one. However, the stop loss should be always be into account, for that it will be very beneficial to set your stop loss at the price of 1.2585.


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#USDX Technical analysis for November 17, 2014

The Dollar index made a double top last week. Despite breaking above the triangle pattern, the break out was a fake one and the strong reversal brought the index at the long-term cloud support. The longer-term trend remains bullish. Price has held support at 87 and this is the only good sign as we have also broken below the upward sloping trend channel.


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Red line = resistance


Black line = price channel


The Dollar index has broken below the upward sloping channel and this is not a good sign. Support by the Ichimoku cloud is holding the index above 87. The Dollar index is now trying to break above the cloud and we could see a another move towards 87.90-88 as a back test of the break out below the channel. If this is the case, we could see a strong reversal from 88 again. Only this time we should expect the downward move to break 87 and push towards 86.


usdxd.jpg

Blue line = support


The Dollar index continues to trade in a longer-term up trend. First important support is at 86.10 and a break below 87 will surely push us towards that level. The bullish flag pattern remains valid and I believe that the longer-term trend will not be in danger even if we pull back towards 86. Concluding, I remain neutral as I expect to see a rejection near 88 again and a strong reversal towards 87. If 87 is broken, the index is expected to go towards 86.10 which is critical support.


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Gold Technical analysis for November 17, 2014

Gold price has held the important support at $1,145 on Friday. Despite the short-term weakness signals, prices reversed strongly and broke above the previous high at $1,178. Price has now reached the 2nd resistance at $1,190-$1,200. My longer-term view remains bearish as long as we are below $1,255 targeting at $1,050.


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Black line = support


Gold price has broken above the Ichimoku cloud but has reached the resistance of the 50% retracement. As long as price is above the black support line, bulls should feel safe. However, a bearish reversal from the current levels is very possible as I still believe that the longer-term trend remains bearish with a view towards $1,050. Support is found at $1,155 and at $1,145. Breaking below thsese two levels will increase the chances of seeing a new low below $1,130 towards $1,050.


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In the daily chart, the trend remains bearish as price remains below the Ichimoku cloud and has not managed to close above $1,193 which is the kijun-sen resistance. Support at $1,155 where the tenkan-sen is found is very important. The upward bounce from $1,130 is a corrective bounce relative to the $1,255-$1,130 decline. I believe the down trend will resume again with $1,050 as a target.


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Technical analysis of GBP/CHF for November 17, 2014


Technical outlook and chart setups:


The GBP/CHF pair has dropped towards 1.5000 levels for now. The drop has accelerated after breaking below 1.5300 and subsequently 1.5200 levels. A break below 1.4975 levels, would ensure that the pair goes into deeper correction towards 1.48/1.47 levels. Support is seen at 1.4975/1.5000 while resistance is seen at 1.5300, followed by 1.5450, 1.5475, 1.5550 respectively. A pullback rally remains high probability from current levels. Recommendations are to remain flat for now and consider selling higher around 1.5200/1.5300 levels. CHF bulls look to be determined to remain in control for a while.


Trading recommendations:


Flat for now. Looking to enter short again at higher levels.


Good luck!


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Technical Analysis of USD/CHF for November 17, 2014

During the previous week, the pair was unable to breach the previous high at 0.9742 on a closing weekly basis. We are waiting patiently for a new breakout on the higher side in the weekly chart. In case if the price closes above 0.9688 on a weekly closing basis, it can challenge for 0.9800, 0.9840,0.9970, and 1.017. The parallel monthly resistance exists at the 0.9751. We have been recommending the same targets for the last month (see the article from October 06th, 2014). Currently, the pair is trading at a 2-weeks low. 0.9700 is still resistance, but we can say it is a top on closing basis unless we see a close below the 0.9361 level. If not, it can shoot above the 0.9700 levels. Today, the pair was rejected at 0.9600 or 20Dsma and is trying to hold support at 0.9540, below this at 0.9510 or 50Dsma. We recommend buying at the market price of 0.9585, sl 0.9540 with the targets at 0.9600, 0.9615, 0.9625, and 0.9645. Safe buying will be triggered above the 0.9600 levels.


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Technical analysis of EUR/JPY for November 17, 2014

General overview for 17/11/2014 07:40 CET:


Five wave impulsive sequence might be completed here at the level of 146.51. Now, at least three wave corrective cycles should start, but the confirmation comes first with the level of 144.71 breakout. Then, intraday golden trend line breakout would be possible as well. Nevertheless, the last wave to the upside might not have been completed as blue wave 4 is still a rather small corrective wave when compared to the other corrective cycle inside of the progression. That would mean, the current downward wave might be purple wave c of the overall very irregular flat corrective cycle in blue wave 4. Traders need to wait until the market to confirms/invalidates this scenario.


Support/Resistance:


149.04 - WR2


148.01 - WR1


146.51 - Swing High


145.02 - Weekly Pivot


144.71 - Technical Support


143.93 - WS1


Trading recommendations:


It looks that at least in the short term the market favours the sell side and this kind of orders should be placed in this pair. The SL level should be placed above the level of 146.51 and TP at the level of 143.32.


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Technical analysis of USD/CAD for November 17, 2014

General overview for 17/11/2014 07:10 CET:


The wave progression is developing as anticipated with a top for the black wave ii at the level of 1.1390. Please notice that to confirm the main count is the correct one, the alternative count is invalidated, the market must violate the level of 1.1220 and break lower. Currently, the price is moving inside the golden channel and any breakout to the downside is a further confirmation of the main count.




Support/Resistance:


1.1120 - Wave 4 Blue Low


1.1173 - WS2


1.1224 - WS1


1.1220 - Green Alternative Count Invalidation Line


1.1265 - Technical Support


1.1289 - Intraday Resistance


1.1311 - Weekly Pivot


Trading recommendations:


The sell orders advised to open last week should still be kept open with SL lowered to the level of 1.1311 and TP moved lower to the level of 1.1220 with a possible downside extension to the level of 1.1120 later in the week.


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Trading recommendation on Gold for November 17, 2014

The yellow metal closed marginally higher for the 2nd consecutive week. Today, at Asia's session the metal made a high at $1,193.40. Ahead of the crucial economic event, FOMC meeting minutes on Wednesday and today's industrial output data will decide the fate on the metal prices. The gold referendum taking place on November 30, 2014 in Switzerland will decide major trend changes. The overall picture favors bears. The weekly support level exists between $1,180.00 and $1,177.00. We recommend fresh selling below $1,177.00 with the targets at $1,171.00 and $1,161.00. The metal looks a bit stronger in case if the price trades above the $1,183.00 levels. In case if the metal manages to close above $1,190.00, it can challenge 1200.00, 1202.00, 1208.00, and $1,211.00. The metal has strong resistance at $1,188.00 or 200MSma and $1,212.00 or 200MEma on a weekly basis. The monthly resistance exists at $1,233.00. On an hourly basis, the metal has support at $1,182.00 levels and resistance exists at $1,194.00. Risky buyers can buy at the market price of $1,184.00, sl $1,180.00 with the targets at $1,188.00, $1,190.00, and $1,192.00. We can see strong upward momentum above $1,194.00 with a further upswing towards $1,198.00, $1,200.00, and $1,203.00. For the short term basis, gold is still favoring to downside.


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Technical analysis and trading recommendation on GBP/USD for November 17, 2014

The cable saw a huge fall during 5 weeks. The pound fell to a 14-month fresh low against the US dollar. The key trigger for pound is the inflation. Tomorrow, the inflation report will decide the fate of this pair. The delay in the UK interest hike is putting pressure on the pound. Last Monday, we recommended fresh selling below 1.5750 with the targets at the 1.5620 and 1.5500 levels. We are extending the lower targets to the 1.5450 and 1.5430 levels. The pair favors selling on the rise. The cable has strong resistance between the 1.6227 and 1.6183 levels. Use every rise to sell, until the prices are closed above these resistance levels. The monthly resistance exists at 1.6030 or 50M sma. The pair has weekly resistance at 1.5800, above this we can expect 1.5875 and 1.6025.


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Today, the pair opened above previous closure, indicating some pullback signs towards the 1.5712 and 1.5750 levels. From an hourly point of view, the cable has support at 1.5690, 1.5658, and 1.5630. The resistance levels exists at the1.5770 and 1.5800 levels. The cable is expanding its low with a capped top at 1.6020. We recommend selling on every upswing or selling below 1.5680. At the previous session, the pair took support from the channel support. The panic will be triggered below 1.5630 levels.


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Technical analysis of Silver for November 17, 2014


Technical outlook and chart setups:


Silver rallieds through $16.40 levels, taking out resistance at $16.20. The metal could possibly take a pause before resuming its next rally. It is recommended to book partial or all profits on long positions taken earlier. The metal could dip towards $15.80 levels before resuming rally towards $17.80/18.00 levels. Support is seen at $15.25/30 levels, followed by $15.00 while resistance is seen at $17.20, followed by $17.80 and higher respectively. Please note that the fibonacci 0.618 resistance is around $16.70 levels and a reaction could be expected if prices reach there. On the other side, $15.70/80 could be good levels to enter buying again on dips.


Trading recommendations:


Book profits on long positions taken earlier.


Good luck!


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Technical analysis of Gold for November 17, 2014


Technical outlook and chart setups:


Gold has rallied to $1,195.00 levels in last 2 trading sessions. The metal could still have room left on the higher side. $1,207.00 looks like the next potential immediate target. It is recommended to hold long positions and move risk to $1,145.00. As seen here, the $1,207.00 is a potential resistance and also fibonacci convergence level. A bearish reaction there should be watched for a potential down trend resumption. Immediate support is at $1,145.00, followed by $1,130.00 while resistance is seen at $1,207.00, followed by $1,230.00/35.00, $1,250.00/55.00 and higher respectively.


Trading recommendations:


Remain long, stop at $1,145.00, target is $1,207.00.


Good luck!


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Technical analysis of EUR/USD for November 18, 2014

When the European market opens, some economic news will be released such as Italian Trade Balance, Trade Balance, German Buba Monthly Report. The US will release economic data too such as the Empire State Manufacturing Index, Capacity Utilization Rate, Industrial Production m/m, so amid the reports, EUR/USD will move with low to medium volatility during this day.

TODAY TECHNICAL LEVELS:

Breakout BUY Level: 1.2587.

Strong Resistance:1.2579.

Original Resistance: 1.2567.

Inner Sell Area: 1.2555.

Target Inner Area: 1.2525.

Inner Buy Area: 1.2483.

Original Support: 1.2483.

Strong Support: 1.2471.

Breakout SELL Level: 1.2463.

Disclaimer: Trading Forex (foreign exchange) on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.


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Technical analysis of USD/JPY for November 18, 2014

In Asia, Japan will release the Prelim GDP q/q, Prelim GDP Price Index y/y and the US will release some economic data such as Empire State Manufacturing Index, Capacity Utilization Rate, Industrial Production m/m. So there is a big probability the USD/JPY will move with low to medium volatility during the day.

TODAY TECHNICAL LEVELS:

Resistance. 3: 116.37.

Resistance. 2: 116.14.

Resistance. 1: 115.92.

Support. 1: 115.64.

Support. 2: 115.41.

Support. 3: 115.18.

Disclaimer: Trading Forex (foreign exchange) on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.


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Technical analysis and trading recommendation on EUR/USD for November 17, 2014

After 3 weeks of a downtrend, the pair managed to close in the green on a weekly basis. The pair has downside support at 1.2350, 1.2300, and 1.2270 or 200Msma. This week, each and every day, the pair is affected by key economic events. Today, ECB president Draghi is expected to testify. The empire state manufacturing index fell to 6.17 last month. We can expect a bounce from a previous month steep fall. On the dollar front, the industrial production report is pending. The pair has recovered 200 points approximately as of now this month, trading with gains. The longer-term picture indicates a sell on rallies. The FED is going to increase its interest rates, which adds fuel to the US dollar. The ECB's easing results weakness of the Euro. The monthly resistance exists at 1.2757 and monthly support exists at 1.2227 levels. The pair has weekly parallel resistance at 1.2577 and support exists at 1.2420.


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For today's session, the pair is trading at 20Dsma or 1.2555, above this resistance exists at 1.2577. We recommend fresh buying at 1.2580 with the targets at 1.2615, 1.2639, and 1.2688. In case, if the pair closes above 1.2580 on a daily basis, bulls can challenge towards the 1.2688 levels. As long as the pair is trading above 1.2500 on an hourly basis, bulls have an upper hand. For an intraday basis, as long as the pair is closing above 1.2400, bulls can challenge 1.2666 levels. We recommend fresh buying at 1.2580 with the targets at 1.2600,1.2630, and 1.2660.


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Trade:


Buying at 1.2580.


Selling below 1.2500, safe selling below 1.2480.


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Daily analysis of USDX for November 17, 2014

The USDX has performed a drop from the resistance level of 88.19 to the support offered by the bullish trend line at the level of 87.55. Caution should be exercised with this trend line, because if the USDX makes a breakout in that area, it would be expected to fall to the support level of 87.35. In case of a rebound from the current levels, it could lead this instrument to revisit the resistance level of 87.93. The MACD indicator remains in the negative territory.


H4chart's resistance levels: 87.93 / 88.19


H4chart's support levels: 87.35 / 87.00


USDXH4.png

On the H1 chart, the USDX found strong resistance at the 88.15 level. Now, the USDX is trying to find support in the SMA 200. The USDX could begin to form a bearish pattern to fall to the support level of 87.28. However, this instrument is likely to make a bullish retracement to the resistance level of 87.86. The MACD indicator remains in the negative territory.


H1 chart's resistance levels: 87.58 / 87.86


H1 chart's support levels: 87.28 / 87.00


USDXH1.png


Trading recommendations for today: Based on the H1 chart, place buy (long) orders only if the USD Index breaks with a bullish candlestick; the resistance level is at 87.58, take profit is at 87.86, and stop loss is at 87.30.


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Daily analysis of GBP/USD for November 17, 2014

On the daily chart, the GBP/USD pair continues to weaken. Now, this pair has touched new historical lows at the support level of 1.5642. If the pair manages to consolidate below that level, GBP/USD will have free space to fall to the support level of 1.5506. There is still a lot of bearish force in the GBP/USD pair because the MACD indicator remains in the negative territory.


Daily chart's resistance levels: 1.5746 / 1.5883


Dailychart's support levels: 1.5642 / 1.5506


GBPUSDDaily.png


The GBP/USD pair has made a rebound at the support level of 1.5590, because this pair is again trying to make a breakout at the resistance level of 1.5686. If successful, it is expected to go up to the resistance level of 1.5739 in the short term. The SMA 200 is located above the 1.5810 level in the H1 chart. The MACD indicator remains in the positive territory.


H1 chart's resistance levels: 1.5686 / 1.5739


H1 chart's support levels: 1.5632 / 1.5590


GBPUSDH1.png


Trading recommendations for today: Based on the H1 chart, place sell (short) orders only if the GBP/USD pair breaks a bearish candlestick; the support level is at 1.5632, take profit is at 1.5590, and stop loss is at 1.5672.


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