EUR/NZD : analysis for May 08, 2015

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Overview:

Recently, EUR/NZD has been trading downwards.The price tested the level of 1.5002 in a high volume. The short-term trend is bullish. Our objective point at 1.5155 (Fibonacci retracement 50%) has been reached and we can observe bearish corrective phase in progress. According to the daily time frame, we can observe weak demand. I placed Fibonacci retracement from the most recent bullish leg to find potential support levels. I got Fibonacci retracement 38.2% at the level of 1.5040, Fibonacci retracement 50% at 1.4980, and Fibonacci retracement 61.8% at 1.4920. Watch for potential buying opportunities on the dips (after bearish correction).

Fibonacci Pivot Points:

Resistance levels:

R1: 1.5215

R2: 1.5260

R3: 1.5333

Support levels:

S1: 1.5060

S2: 1.5010

S3: 1.4940

Trading recommendations: Be careful when selling EUR/NZD and watch for potential buying opportunities after a retracement.


The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Gold : analysis for May 08, 2015

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Overview:

Since our last analysis, gold has been trading downwards. The price tested the level of $1,178.67 in a high volume. According to the daily time frame, we can observe supply in a volume below average. The short-term trend is neutral. According to the H4 time frame, we can observe supply in a high volume. Our Fibonacci retracement 61.8% at the level of $1,181.00 was held successful. I am still expecting bullish movement, so my advice is to focus on buying positions. The first resistance level is around $1,200.00. According to the 30-minute time frame, there is still a valid inverted head and shoulders formation (bullish). I found corrective downward channel according to 30min timeframe, and the price broke and re-tested that channel, which is sign for potential bullish movement.

Daily Fibonacci pivot points:

Resistance levels:

R1: 1,189.00

R2: 1,192.75

R3: 1,198.13

Support levels:

S1: 1,178.65

S2: 1,175.30

S3: 1,170.10

Trading recommendations: Be careful when selling gold at this stage and watch for potential buying opportunities (buy on dips).


The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Daily analysis of major pairs for May 8, 2015

EUR/USD: This is a bullish market, though the present price action is a threat to the bullish scenario. As long as the price stays above the support line at 1.1050, the bullish outlook is likely to be rational. Thus, dips on the market could be amounted to opportunities to buy long.

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USD/CHF: This week, this currency trading instrument went down by 200 pips and moved upwards by 150 pips. The outlook remains bearish and as long as EUR/USD is strong, this instrument would be weak. This present rally should be considered as an opportunity to sell short at a better price.

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GBP/USD: The GBP/USD pair rallied massively yesterday, including most GBP pairs. From the accumulation territory around 1.5250, the price moved upwards, testing the distribution territory at 1.5500. This is a movement of 300 pips. From the distribution territory at 1.5500, the price has been corrected lower, but the overall bias remains bullish. While the distribution territory may be tested again, any movement below the accumulation territory at 1.5150 would cause a threat to the extant bullish bias.

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USD/JPY: the signal that is on this pair is a “buy" signal. The price is above the EMA 56 and the RSI period 14 is above the level of 50. There is a probability of further northward attempts.

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EUR/JPY: This is also a bulishl market and the cross should be strong as long as the euro is strong. The Bullish Confirmation Pattern in the market would be valid as long as the price is unable to break the demand zones at 133.00 and 132.50 to the downside.

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Daily analysis of USDX for May 08, 2015

The index is calling for the changed current bias, which is bearish, because the level of 93.95 has already provided a good bottom for the USDX. We can confirm this idea only if it does a breakout at the resistance zone of 95.00 and a rally towards thelevel of 96.30 in the medium term. Also, the 200 SMA is still slightly bullish.

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In the H1 chart, the USDX is trying to reach the 200 SMA, where it should find solid resistance for the short term. Remember that the zone of 93.85 is a good bottom and the place where the losses were contained. For now, we should remain cautious, as the bearish risk is still there, but it could be invalidated with a breakout at the level of 95.34.

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Daily chart's resistance levels: 95.00 / 96.30

Dailychart's support levels: 93.95 / 92.64

H1 chart's resistance levels: 95.34 / 95.94

H1 chart's support levels: 94.70 / 93.85



Trading recommendations for today: Based on the H1 chart, place sell (short) orders only if the USD Index breaks with a bearish candlestick; the support level is at 94.70, take profit is at 93.85, and stop loss is at 95.56.

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Daily analysis of GBP/USD for May 08, 2015

The GBP/USD pair is likely to find strong dynamic resistance at the 200 SMA in the daily chart. That could give a good opportunity for mid-term traders to sell the pair on a pullback and ride the overall bearish trend. Anyway, the cautioin should be there yet, because GBP/USD could rally towards the resistance zone of 1.5745.

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In the H1 chart, GBP/USD found strong resistance at the level of 1.5530, because sellers are very active in this territory. Now, we could talk about a higher high pattern formation above the 200 SMA, but the fact is that the pair is trying to find a solid bottom and it could be the support level of 1.5307 in the short term.

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Daily chart's resistance levels: 1.5543 / 1.5745

Dailychart's support levels: 1.5371 / 1.5238

H1 chart's resistance levels: 1.5472 / 1.5533

H1 chart's support levels: 1.5392 / 1.5307



Trading recommendations for today: Based on the H1 chart, place buy (long) orders only if the GBP/USD pair breaks a bullish candlestick; the resistance level is at 1.5472, take profit is at 1.5533, and stop loss is at 1.5415.

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USD/CAD intraday technical levels and trading recommendations for May 8, 2015

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Overview:

Since bulls pushed the price further above the upper limit of both depicted bullish channels and the 79.6% Fibonacci level, the market looked quite overbought. That is why the market failed to hold above 1.2650 - 1.2680 (previous highs) resulting in the formation of a Triple-top pattern.

Successive lower highs were established within the depicted consolidation zone enhancing the bearish side of the market.

Support levels around 1.2350 and 1.2300 (79.6% Fibonacci level) were broken after providing significant support for several weeks on the daily and weekly charts.

Daily fixation below 1.2300 cleared the way for the USD/CAD pair towards the levels of 1.2000 and 1.1940 (projection target of the recent range breakout and the depicted weekly uptrend).

That is why we expected these price levels to provide significant signs of bullish price action.

On the other hand, the price zone of 1.2330-1.2350 remains a significant intraday resistance zone at further retesting. This zone is likely to offer a low-risk sell entry while retesting.

Trading recommendations:

As it was suggested yesterday, risky traders could have taken a buy entry anywhere around the price level of 1.1950. T/P is projected at 1.2100, 1.2270 and 1.2320 as long as USD/CAD bulls keep defending the recent low (1.1940).

On the other hand, conservative traders should wait for a bullish pullback towards the price zone of 1.2300-1.2340 for a low-risk sell entry. T/P levels should be placed at 1.2220, 1.2100, and 1.1950 while S/L should be placed above 1.2250.

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Intraday technical levels and trading recommendations for EUR/USD for May 8, 2015

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The market was pushed lower after breaking below the major demand levels around 1.2100 and 1.2000 where historical bottoms were previously established back in July 2012 and June 2010.

The EUR/USD pair lost almost 1,500 pips since the beginning of 2015. Moreover, EUR/USD bears have already pushed the market slightly below the monthly demand level at 1.0550 (established on January 1997).

The previous monthly closure had a negative impact on the EUR/USD pair. However, April's monthly candlestick came as a bullish engulfing candle as depicted on the chart.

This probably hinders further bearish decline for some time. On the other hand, it enhances a bullish corrective movement towards 1.1500 if a daily closure persists above the level of 1.1250.

In the long term, bearish breakdown of the monthly demand level of 1.0550 should not be excluded as the long-term breakout target is roughly projected towards the level of 0.9450.

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The obvious bearish breakout of the weekly demand level at 1.1100 enhanced the bearish side of the market exposing lower targets.

After such a long bearish rally (which started around the levels of 1.1300), bullish rejection was expressed at 1.0570 (monthly demand level).

The price zone between 1.1050 and 1.1150 failed to neutralize the ongoing bullish momentum. Moreover, a bullish continuation pattern with an ascending bottom was established around the level of 1.0650.

This applied a strong bullish pressure over the prominent supply levels at 1.1150 and 1.1240. Thus, bears have failed to pause the ongoing bullish momentum of the EUR/USD pair.

The current daily candlestick closure should be monitored for further price analysis.

Daily persistence above the level of 1.1250 directly exposes the daily supply level located at 1.1500 for a quick retesting.

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Intraday technical levels and trading recommendations for GBP/USD for May 8, 2015

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Significant SUPPLY levels located around 1.5300 (weekly 38.2% Fibonacci level) and 1.5500 (weekly 50% Fibonacci level) have been providing significant SUPPLY over the GBP/USD pair for a few months.

Evident bullish recovery emerged from the area around 1.4550 where a significant bullish engulfing weekly candlestick was expressed.

As mentioned in the previous articles, persistence above the levels of 1.5000-1.5080 exposed the weekly supply zone of 1.5500-1.5550 (roughly corresponding to weekly 50% Fibonacci level), where significant bearish pressure was applied.

The current weekly candlestick closure should be monitored to determine the next destination of the pair as persistence above 1.5300 applies strong bullish pressure over the level of 1.5500 (weekly 50% Fibonacci level).

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Sideways movement with slight bearish tendency had been expressed on the daily chart until the bullish breakout took place above 1.4970-1.5000 (via a Full-body bullish candlesticks).

The price zone between 1.5000 and 1.5050 (daily 38.2% and 50% Fibonacci levels) currently constitutes a prominent demand level for the GBP/USD pair.

As anticipated, it offered a valid buy entry at retesting that took place on Tuesday. S/L should be advanced to 1.5050 (just below entry levels) to offset the risk.

Bullish targets located at 1.5300, 1.5350 and 1.5430 were successfully achieved.

On the other hand, a daily closure above the weekly supply zone 1.5500-1.5530 exposes the next supply level located at 1.5720 (100% Fibonacci Expansion of the recent bullish swing).

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Technical analysis of USD/JPY for May 08, 2015

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Fundamental outlook:
USD/JPY is expected to consolidate in a higher range as markets are awaiting the US April non-farm payrolls (forecast +228,000), unemployment rate (forecast 5.4%), and average hourly earnings (forecast +0.2%). USD/JPY is buoyed by improved USD sentiment (ICE spot dollar index last 94.60 versus 94.14 early Thursday) after fewer-than-expected US jobless claims that hit 265,000 in a week ended May 2 (forecast 275,000), larger-than-expected $20.52 billion increase in the US March consumer credit (versus forecast +$16.0 billion), and March consumer credit (versus forecast +$16.0 billion). USD/JPY is also supported by demand from Japan importers, ultra-loose Bank of Japan's monetary policy, and reduced safe-haven appeal of the yen amid diminished risk aversion (VIX fear gauge eased 0.13% to 15.13; S&P 500 closed up 0.38% at 2,088.00 overnight). But USD/JPY gains are tempered by the lower US Treasury yields (10-year at 2.178% versus 2.240% late Wednesday), Japan export sales, and position adjustment ahead of the weekend. The yen crosses vulnerable to China April trade data due out around 02:00 GMT (surplus forecast $42.9 billion, exports forecast +2.5% on-year, imports forecast -10.0% on-year).

Technical comment:
The daily chart is mixed as the MACD is bullish, but stochastics is in bearish mode.

Trading recommendations:
The pair is trading above its pivot point. It is likely to trade in a wider range as long as it remains above its pivot point. As long as the price holds above its pivot point, long positions are recommended with the first target at 120.50 and the second target at 120.80. In the alternative scenario, if the price moves below its pivot points, short positions are recommended with the first target at 119. A break of this target is likely to push the pair further downwards, and one may expect the second target at 118.75. The pivot point is at 119.40.

Resistance levels:
120.50
120.80
121.45

Support levels:
119
118.75
118.30

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Technical analysis of USD/CHF for May 08, 2015

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Fundamental overview:
USD/CHF is expected to consolidate in a higher range after hitting a three-month low of 0.9065 on Thursday as markets are awaiting the US non-farm payrolls report. USD/CHF is underpinned by the improved USD sentiment, negative Swiss interest rates, and threat of the Swiss National Bank CHF-selling intervention; the franc sales on buoyant EUR/CHF cross. But USD/CHF gains are tempered by the position adjustment ahead of the weekend.

Technical comment:
The daily chart is mixed as the MACD is bearish, five-day and 15-day moving averages are declining but stochastic is turned bullish at oversold levels, bullish hammer candlestick pattern was completed on Thursday.

Trading recommendations:
The pair is trading above its pivot point. It is likely to trade in a wider range as long as it remains above its pivot point. As long as the price holds above its pivot point, long positions are recommended with the first target at 0.9280 and the second target at 0.9340. In the alternative scenario, if the price moves below its pivot points, short positions are recommended with the first target at 0.9135. A break of this target is likely to push the pair further downwards, and one may expect the second target at 0.9065. The pivot point is at 0.9175.

Resistance levels:
0.9280
0.9340
0.9375
Support levels:
0.9135
0.9065
0.9

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Technical analysis of NZD/USD for May 08, 2015


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Fundamental overview:
NZD/USD is expected to consolidate with bearish bias after hitting a three-week low of 0.7423 on Thursday as markets are awaiting the US non-farm payrolls report. NZD/USD is undermined by the improved USD sentiment, continued impact from the soft New Zealand Q1 unemployment data, and weak dairy prices. But NZD/USD losses are tempered by the NZD-USD interest differential and position adjustment ahead of the weekend.

Technical comment:
The daily chart is negative-biased as the MACD and stochastic are bearish, although the latter is at the oversold levels, five-day moving average is below 15-day moving average and is declining.

Trading recommendations:
The pair is trading below its pivot point. It is likely to trade in a lower range as long as it remains below the pivot point. Short positions are recommended with the first target at 0.7370. A break of that target will move the pair further downwards to 0.7340. The pivot point stands at 0.7455. In case the price moves in the opposite direction and bounces back from the support level, it will move above its pivot point. It is likely to move further to the upside. According to that scenario, long positions are recommended with the first target at 0.7515 and the second target at 0.7550.

Resistance Levels:
0.7515
0.7550
0.7580

Support levels:
0.7370
0.7340
0.73

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Technical analysis of GBP/JPY for May 08, 2015

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Fundamental outlook:
GBP/JPY is expected to consolidate in a higher range as markets are awaiting the US non-farm payrolls report. GBP/JPY is supported by the stronger GBP/USD undertone and Japan export sales. But GBP/JPY losses are tempered by the demand from Japan importers, diminished risk aversion, and positions adjustment ahead of the weekend.

Technical comment:
The daily chart is mixed as the MACD is bullish, but stochastic is turning bearish at overbought levels. Bearish dark-cloud-cover candlestick pattern was completed on Thursday.


Trading recommendations:
The pair is trading above its pivot point. It is likely to trade in a wider range as long as it remains above its pivot point. As long as the price holds above its pivot point, long positions are recommended with the first target at 186.55 and the second target at 187.30. In the alternative scenario, if the price moves below its pivot points, short positions are recommended with the first target at 183. A break of this target is likely to push the pair further downwards, and one may expect the second target at 182.40. The pivot point is at 183.80.

Resistance levels:
186.55
187.30
187.75

Support levels:
183
182.40
181.75

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#USDX wave analysis for May 8, 2015

The Dollar index bounced from the blue trend-line support and tested the upper channel boundary and the kijun-sen at 95. The impulsive downward move could be already completed but I cannot rule out a new low before the reversal starts. Bears need to be very cautious specially today as we have the announcement of the US unemployment rate and Non-Farm payrolls. This data could provide the market with a bullish reversal.

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The weekly chart has 5 waves down completed exactly at the kijun-sen support level. We could see a back test of this support level after the first bounce but there is a mounting probability that the end of the downward correction from 100 has been already seen.

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Green line = neckline resistance

Blue line = trend-line support

Orange lines= bearish channel

The Dollar index is making an attempt to exit the bearish orange channel. Above this channel, we can find the cloud resistance. The first bullish signal is likely to come once the price breaks the orange channel. The second bullish signal will come if the index breaks above the 4-hour cloud. Until then, the trend remains bearish and traders should better wait for today's announcements.

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Gold wave analysis for May 8, 2015

Today, I have posted an alternative wave count for the Gold price as we could see more sideways price action despite the short-term weakness. We have completed wave A and B . A new wave C towards $1,200 should be expected.

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Red line = resistance

Blue line = support

Gold price is inside wave C up alternative or in an unfolding new downward impulsive wave towards $1,150. The short-term resistance trend line is seen at $1,190. Ichimoku cloud resistance is found in the territory of $1,186-$1,193. As long as the price holds below these levels, bears have the upper hand. Important resistance is at $1,215-22 while important support is seen at $1,178-70.

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Light blue line = neckline

Dark blue lines = projection

Black curves = H&S pattern

Gold price could be forming a Head and Shoulder pattern in the daily chart. A daily break below $1,130 could push the price towards $1,000 or even lower. The trend is bearish and there is a strong probobility that the pattern can be confirmed. Stop for bears should be set at highs of the right hand shoulder at $1,222.

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Technical analysis of EUR/JPY for April 8, 2015

General overview for 08/05/2015 08:10 CET

As mentioned yesterday, the wave five upward price progression has been completed. Now, the market is ready to continue the decline lower. The first clue comes with a wave five decline from the top of 135.97 for the wave B and now, as long as the intraday resistance at the level of 135.17 is not violated, the key downside continuation level is intraday support at the level of 134.16. A break out lower would mean that the weekly pivot might get tested and even violated.

Support/Resistance:

139.97 - Swing High

135.17 - Intraday Resistance

134.16 - Intraday Support

133.34 - Weekly Pivot

Trading recommendations:

The sell orders from yesterday should be still kept open and any break out below the level of 134.16 provides another selling opportunity with TP at the level of 133.34.

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Technical analysis of USD/CAD for May 8, 2015

General overview for 08/05/2015 07:55 CET

As mentioned yesterday, the golden trend-line resistance was the target level for wave (b) blue. After hitting it, the market got back to the weekly pivot at the level of 1.2115. Currently, the key level to the upside is a small supply zone between the levels of 1.2190 - 1.2202, because a break out higher is needed to invalidate the three-wave progression in wave (b) blue. On the other hand, the invalidation level for the alternative count is at the level of 1.2054. In that case, the downside target would be below the recent swing low at the level of 1.1938.

Support/Resistance:

1.1938 - Swing Low

1.2029 - WS1

1.2054 - Alternative Count Invalidation Level

1.2086 - Intraday Support

1.2115 - Weekly Pivot

1.2162 - Intraday Resistance

1.2190 - 1.2202 - Supply Zone

Trading recommendations:

The buy orders from yesterday should be closed now and traders should keep eye on the level of 1.2162 for another buy entry.

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Elliott wave analysis of EUR/NZD for May 8 - 2015

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Technical summary:

As we said yesterday, a perfect rally of five wave has been seen from a low of 1.3880 and a correction should be expected. The first target to look for is a low of wave four of one lessor degree, which means wave iv at 1.4725, which also marks the 38.2% corrective target. So, we should expect strong support at 1.4725 and the bottom of wave (ii) is likely to getting ready for a strong rally higher in wave (iii).

Yesterday, we took a chance and sold EUR with a small stop. The market hit that stop for a small loss, but after having taken out 3 nice profits since a low of 1.3880, the small loss didn't hurt anything but our pride. However, there is a lesson to be taken away for us. You should never try to pick tops or trade against the trend before a turn in trend is confirmed. Well, we did both things and our pride was bruised a little.

It was very tempting trying to short this cross for a 365 pips gain and it still is, but it is likely to make a break below the support line of 1.5019 to confirm that the top is in place and a correction towards the corrective target at 1.4725 is unfolding. However, we do more risk and that is that this correction moves it to the 23.6% corrective target at 1.4924, which is also very close to the top of wave iii at 1.4903. There is a possibility that we only are in the middle of wave iii higher. So, we will resist the temptation to sell EUR and wait for a new buying opportunity.

Trading recommendation:

We will buy EUR at 1.4735 or upon a break above 1.5185 (one order done cancels the other) If the later target is hit, the stop will be place 10 pips below the most recent low (likely at 1.5009).

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Elliott wave analysis of EUR/JPY for May 8 - 2015

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Technical summary:

After a perfect rally to 135.82 (a high came in at 136.00), the expected correction in red wave iv has taken over. The first target to look for is the low of wave four (blue wave iv in this case) of one lessor degree. The bottom of blue wave iv is located at 133.08, which is just above the 38.2% corrective target of red wave iii at 132.72. So, a bottom for red wave iv should be expected between 132.72 and 133.08 for the final rally in red wave v to finish the first impulsive rally from a long-term low at 126.02.

Trading recommendation:

Our stop at 135.10 was hit for a very nice profit. We will look for a new EUR-buying opportunity at 133.15.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Technical analysis and trading recommendation for USDX and USD/CAD for May 08, 2015

In the week ending May 2, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 265,000, showed an increase of 3,000 from the previous week's unrevised level of 262,000. This is the lowest level for this average since May 6, 2000 when it was 279,250.

Today, traders eye non-farm employment changes and employment rate.

USDX: The dollar index is likely to make a double bottom at 93.88 changed the directions after the positive job data. Intraday resistance is seen at 94.95-95.00. If today's economic data support bulls, they can make 96.00. Intraday support is found at 94.30. The positional picture favors bears aiming for 93.25 and 93.00, which is our near-term target.

USD/CAD

The total value of Canadian building permits rose 11.6% to $6.9 billion in March from a month earlier. This was the first increase in three months. Also, oil prices dropped from $62.00odd added more fuel to the loonie.

At yesterday's session, the pair showed a 3-day losing streak gained 0.7%. Today, the pair opened on a bearish note. The nearest strong resistance is found at 1.2185 20Dsma and 1.2195 100Dema. Until the price closes below 1.2200, sell on every rise. The strong resistance is seen at 1.2350; bears have the upper hand in the medium term. Intraday support is found at 1.2070 20&50dsma in the four-hour chart. At yesterday's session, we recommended buying with sl 1.2000 with a target at 1.2130 but the price made a high at 1.2163. The pair was rejected at descending trend line. For an intraday session, we recommend buying with sl 1.2070 with targets at 1.2130, 1.2160, and 1.2180. Strong momentum is observed above 1.2205 towards 1.2270 and 1.2300. On the downside, we recommend selling below 1.2070 with targets at 1.2050, 1.2030, 1.2000, and 1.1985.

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Resistance: 1.2165, 1.2200, 1.2350

Support: 1.2070, 1.2000, 1.1945

The initial resistance is seen at 1.2129, later 1.2165, and 1.2200 in case they are take out another 100 pips.

Trade: Buying with sl 1.2070, selling below 1.2070

Safe traders - buying above 1.2130 target 1.2165 and 1.2200. Above 1.2200,we can see 1.2300.

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Technical analysis of EUR/USD for May 08, 2015

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When the European market opens, economic data on Italian Industrial Production m/m, German Trade Balance, and German Industrial Production m/m are due for release.The US is expected to publish data on Wholesale Inventories m/m, Average Hourly Earnings m/m, Unemployment Rate, and Non-Farm Employment Changes. So amid the reports, EUR/USD will move medium to high volatility during this day.


TODAY TECHNICAL LEVELS:

Breakout BUY Level: 1.1297.

Strong Resistance:1.1291.

Original Resistance: 1.1280.

Inner Sell Area: 1.1269.

Target Inner Area: 1.1243.

Inner Buy Area: 1.1217.

Original Support: 1.1206.

Strong Support: 1.1195.

Breakout SELL Level: 1.1189.




Disclaimer: Trading Forex (foreign exchange) on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Technical analysis of USD/JPY for May 08, 2015

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In Asia, Japan will release the Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes and the US is expected to release economic data on Wholesale Inventories m/m, Average Hourly Earnings m/m, Unemployment Rate, and Non-Farm Employment Change. So, there is a strong probability that the USD/JPY will move with low volatility during the Asian session, but with medium to high volatility during the US session.


TODAY TECHNICAL LEVELS:

Resistance. 3: 120.48.

Resistance. 2: 120.25.

Resistance. 1: 120.02.

Support. 1: 119.73.

Support. 2: 119.50.

Support. 3: 119.26.




Disclaimer: Trading Forex (foreign exchange) on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.

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Technical analysis and trading recommendation for EUR/CAD for May 08, 2015

The total value of Canadian building permits rose 11.6% to $6.9 billion in March from a month earlier. This was the first increase in three months. Also, oil prices dropped from $62.00odd added more fuel to the loonie. As we knew, the loonie is a commodity currency. Today, traders eye Canadian employment changes and unemployment rate. We expect both Canadian data to be on the positive side. At yesterday's session, we recommended buying with targets at 1.3750 and 1.3760; exactly, the cross made a high at 1.3765 and changed the direction towards lows. In case the level of 1.3765 is taken off, big spikes are likely to be added to the system. Intraday support is found at 1.3570 34hrsma. We recommend selling below 1.3570 with targets at 1.3510 and 1.3470. Panic will be triggered below 1.3470 towards 1.3400. The current uptrend will be cancelled in case the price breaks below 1.3385. On the bullish front, two levels arrest the current rally 1.3765 200Wsma and 1.3780 50Msma. We expect 400pips on the higher side in case if these taken out on a closing basis. The cross had been consolidating for 6 days before it moved higher to the crucial resistance level. The pair managed to close above 20Dsma and 50Dsma. In case the price closes above 1.3765, the fresh lows will be added to this cross aiming for 1.3820 and 1.4070 in the near term. At yesterday's session, we advised that in case the cross is unable to give a break higher in a day or two, the pair can correct towards 1.3600 and 1.3520. As of now the cross made a low of 1.3595 and was rejected at 1.3765 again.

Trade: Selling below 1.3570 with targets at 1.3510 and 1.3470

Buy above 1.3630 with targets at 1.3660 and 1.3700/1.3710.

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Technical analysis and trading recommendation for EUR/USD for Mary 08, 2015

Germany factory orders: Based on provisional data, the Federal Statistical Office (Destatis) reported that price-adjusted new orders in manufacturing in March 2015 increased seasonally and working-day adjusted 0.9% on February 2015. In February 2015, they decreased by 0.9% on January 2015, as had been already reported in the previous month.

Given the lack of Euro macroeconomic data it is understandably a quiet day in the markets. Today, the trend will be driven by data on the US unemployment rate and non-farm employment changes.

Technical view: The pair rejected at weekly parallel resistance at 1.3997, made high t 1.3992. The pair fell and closed below 100Dema, but managed to close above 100dsma. Today at the Asian session, the pair was unable to breach the 100dema acting as resistance at 1.1300. Intraday resistance is seen at 1.1300 and on closing basis at 1.1350. Strong support is found at 1.1200 20Wsma. In case of today's closure below 1.1200, this indicated bulls losing grip in the coming days. At yesterday's session Greece Finance Minister Yanis Varoufakis says deal can come “in the next few days or weeks". Today, we expect wild moves on the euro and pound. As we knew, UK election counting is going on. Exit poll indicated Conservatives set for victory. At the Asian session, labor party was enjoying majority of 13 seats and conservatives of 4. In case the deal is not reached, the probability of Grexit remains very high. The euro is likely to be devalued, which is one of the bearish factors. The divergence in the ECB and FED is another major bearish factor influenced the euro. Finally, the euro is fundamentally weak. Further spikes invite to enter short. The strong support base is found at 1.1050. In case the price below this level, traders can forget about buying of this pair. At yesterday's session, we recommend buying with targets at 1.1390, made high at 1.1392. Intraday strong support is found at 1.1225 and 1.1200. We recommend selling below 1.1200 with 1.1180, 1.1120, and 1.1070. Bulls are recommended to buy above 1.1300 with targets at 1.1320, 1.1350, and 1.1390.

Trade: Buying above 1.1300 selling below 1.1200.

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Technical analysis of GBP/USD for May 8, 2015

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Overview:

  • According to the previous events, the price of the GBP/USD pair is going to move between the levels of 1.5497 and 1.5248. Equally important, it should be noted that the level of 1.5248 is representing a strong support in the H1 chart. Additionally, the level of 1.5497 is going to form a double top. Consequently, the range of the GBP/USD pair will be around 135 pips on Friday 8th April 2015. Consequently, the market will indicate a bullish opportunity above 1.5248 because the level of 1.6730 is going to act as strong support and it is representing the weekly pivot point at the same time. Therefore, it will be a good sign to buy above this level today with the first target at 1.5350 in order to try to break the minor resistance.

Technical levels:

  • Projected high: 1.5497.
  • Breakout (buy stop): 1.5375.
  • Strong resistance (breakout): 1.5350.
  • Current pivot: 1.5300
  • Strong support (buy limit): 1.5248 (the weekly pivot point).
  • It should be noted that if there is no significant news to influence, the price will be moving from pivot point to resistance 1 or support 1. But if there is significant news to influence, the price may go straight through resistance 1 or support 1 and reach resistance 2 or support 2 and even resistance 3 or support 3.
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Technical analysis of USD/CHF for May 8, 2015

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Trading recommendations:

  • According to the recent events, the price of the USD/CHF pair has still trapped between the levels of 0.9134 and 0.9273. The level of 0.9273 is representing the ratio of 38.2% Fibonacci retracement levels. Hence, sell below the level of 0.9273 with the first target of 0.9222; it might resume to 0.9134 today in order to test the weekly pivot point which represents the ratio of 11.8% Fibonacci retracement levels. Also, it should be noted that the market was so stable and trend was so clear (downward) last week. However, the stop loss should always be taken into account; therefore it will be very useful to set your stop loss at the level of 0.9295. Notes
  • As it is known, sellers are asking for a high price. And the supply zone has been set between the level of 0.9273 and the 0.9260 level.
  • The double top is seen at the level of 0.8856. The minor support is likely to be set at 0.9275 (this level is going to represent the weekly resistance).
  • The major support had already been set at the level of 0.9134. Moreover, the double bottom is also coinciding with the major support.
  • We expect a range of 78 pips this week.
  • The level of 0.9196 is likely to be the key level today.


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