Saudi Arabia will significantly reduce the supply of oil to the United States

On Friday, December 14, it became known that in the near future, the Saudi authorities will sharply reduce oil supplies to the United States. The reason for this is the surplus reserves of black gold, which rose by 50 million barrels since September of this year.

nMvNh5DOo9iUUnWExvUrG2nv0eco3IEocAyUnXpN

Oil prices showed strong growth on Thursday. Experts find two explanations for this: first, the market regains the reduction of black gold reserves in the United States, and secondly, it is also preparing to reduce raw materials due to Saudi Arabia's plans in the coming weeks to drastically reduce US oil supply stocks, which since September, it rose by 50 million barrels.

According to Bloomberg, Saudi Aramco, the largest oil company in the kingdom, warned the US refineries of a large-scale supply decline in January 2019. It is expected that their volume will be reduced to 0.6 million barrels per day, which is 40% lower than the average value for the last three months of 2018.

Experts believe that this measure on the part of Saudi Arabia will demonstrate the seriousness of the kingdom's intentions after the adoption of the new OPEC + agreement. The dynamics of oil and petroleum products in the United States has a significant impact on the world market, so the actions of the Saudis will not pass without a trace. Analysts find it difficult to answer whether these actions will have a positive or negative impact on the global black gold market.

According to Bloomberg in January 2019, Saudi oil exports could reach 7 million barrels per day, which is less than in the period of November-December 2018. According to Khalid Al-Falih, Minister of Energy of Saudi Arabia, the authorities of the kingdom intend to reduce production by 10.2 million barrels per day from the November level of 11.1 million barrels. Experts point out that current news has not led to an increase in black gold prices, which have not yet recovered from the recent collapse.

iq2fn0QzeYq9hGMEhkeMCxJN4HJXyuqJXStEsQzE

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

What will drive oil refineries in early 2019?

Earlier this year, oil conquered one peak after another, aided by two main factors. One is increased demand and the other, a limited supply. At the present time, the hydrocarbon market is experiencing a difficult time. The forecasts of experts regarding the future prospects of black gold differ. Someone expects a fall in prices and a moderate decline in quotations in the second half of 2019. Others are hoping for an increase in oil demand in the coming year, which resulted in a recovery. The average oil price forecast for 2019 is $ 60-65 per barrel for Brent.

aHkogNhkynvuehn8l6uD_Kf5sF0AP29VJEDTRIjD

What factors will most strongly affect the quotes in early 2019?

OPEC and RF mining levels

OPEC members and other major oil producers in the world decided at a meeting in December to reduce the level of oil production by 1.2 million barrels per day compared to the level recorded in October. The hardest to "shrink" will be Saudi Arabia, which produced by 350 thousand barrels per day in November more than in October. Save the current mark, perhaps, it will turn out in Iran. Recall that its production rate in November actually decreased by 31 thousand barrels per day.

If the cartel suppliers join the deal, which is unlikely to happen, the total production of OPEC in January 2019 will be close to 32.214 million barrels per day. In this scenario, the decline in production compared with the November marks of 866 thousand barrels per day will be insignificant.

The oil "came to life" with a little on the announcement by the cartel members of their intention to lower production levels and then went down again. This is a clear sign that the announced restrictions, even together with an additional 400,000 barrels from OPEC +, will not be enough to stimulate quotes. Perhaps this level of decline will be enough to stabilize prices in 2019. One thing is clear here: the growth of oil needs additional restrictions.

Iran sanctions

In November, America freed 8 importers of Iranian oil from anti-Iranian measures. To discuss this issue, the United States will return in April. The main intrigue is whether the changes will be extended, reduced, or completely reversed. Due to these measures, countries are able to buy at least 850 thousand barrels per day. The volume is insignificant, given that the global oil industry produces about 100 million barrels per day, but at the moment it is of great importance and is able to influence prices.

Large oil producers will appreciate the result of restrictive measures precisely in April because, at this time, Washington will review the exceptions to the sanctions.

It should be noted that the refusal of the United States to extend anti-Iranian measures will lead to an increase in oil prices if OPEC and the Russian Federation continue to reduce production.

The development of the oil industry in America

The United States has become the world leader in producing black gold. Fresh data from the Energy Information Administration showed that the country managed to achieve a record of 11.5 million barrels per day in September. High rates remained in November. EIA estimates the figure at a similar 11.5 million barrels.

Last week, the United States became a net exporter of crude oil and fuel but this week they have not confirmed their title. As for the next year, the EIA expects that the average level of production in the States will be 12.1 million barrels per day. Factors such as trade war, rising interest rates and infrastructural constraints can undermine growth.

Since rumors that the Fed will pause the process of tightening policy in 2019, are actively playing, we should expect to maintain the flow of investment in shale oil injection companies.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Bitcoin analysis for December 14, 2018

analytics5c13c17954029.png

Trading recommendations:

According to the H1 time - frame, I found that BTC breached the support trendline in the backgorund and that upward correction has finished. My advice is to watch for selling opportunities. The downward targets are set at the price of $3.112 and at the price of $2.894.

Support/Resistance

$3.262 – Intraday resistance

$3.170– Intraday support

$3.112 – Objective target 1

$2.894 – Objective target 2

With InstaForex you can earn on cryptocurrency's movements right now. Just open a deal in your MetaTrader4.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

GBP/USD analysis for December 14, 2018

analytics5c13be2c4ac0f.png

Recently, the GBP/USD pair has been trading downwards. The price tested the level of 1.2529. According to the H1 time – frame, I have found that the momentum is on the downside, but in my opinion the sellers may got exhausted. Due to potential oversold conditions, my advice is to watch for buying opportunities if you see that breakout of the supply trendline. The upward targets are set at the price of 1.2600 and at the price of 1.2623.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

The gold is getting cheaper, and the dollar is rising ahead of the Fed meeting

KjZhTIMyXKfNFPQ3IDXPG6Z1LkJQAgtmd7fS4OfA

At the trading at the end of the week, the price of gold falls amid rising US dollar exchange rate before the Fed meeting with an interest rate decision.

As of 14:30 London time, the value of gold fell by 0.59%, to $ 1,240.05 per troy ounce.

At the same time, the index showing the strength of the US dollar relative to a basket of six major currencies increased by 0.62, to the level of 97.655.

Gold is getting cheaper against the background of the dollar gaining strength. Most financial analysts predict that at a meeting next Wednesday, the US Federal Reserve will raise the key interest rate by 25 basis points, the fourth time this year.

However, the strengthening of the dollar may be short-term, since experts also believe that the US central bank may slow down the rate of interest rate increase next year.

As a rule, the price of gold is inversely correlated to the US dollar, because the precious metal is traded in US currency.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

The oil market is in lull, waiting for new drivers

According to experts, oil prices "took a pause" in anticipation of new growth drivers in the global market.

NmCVkYFSrTaBWcqWgr8bY4zCtl9qX113Ao47R-i0

A lull in the global black gold market is also reflected in the dynamics of oil prices. After a significant surge in volatility due to the OPEC+ agreement to reduce oil production by 1.2 million barrels per day, the price range for North Sea Brent oil ranged from $ 60 to $ 61.50 per barrel.

According to experts, the global market can achieve a balance of supply and demand during the six months of 2019 due to the reduction of oil production by 1.2 million barrels per day. To maintain this balance for a long time, analysts recommend reducing oil production even further.

Experts believe that the situation on the global black gold market may change after the release of fresh data on drilling activity in the United States. In the short term, oil prices will be as close as possible to $ 60.70 a barrel, analysts are sure.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

The dollar wipes nose to skeptics

Which does not kill makes us stronger. The week to December 14th was a real challenge for the US dollar. Bloomberg experts predicted a slowdown in US inflation, Mario Draghi expected optimism about the prospects for the European economy, and a truce in the Washington-Beijing trade war should have a positive impact on European business activity. In fact, only the first of all the negatives worked. Consumer price growth rates really declined in November, however, producer prices extended a helping hand to the USD index. A pair of EUR / USD rolled on a roller coaster, and then went below the base of the 13th figure.

The European Central Bank, as promised, completed the € 2.6 trillion program of quantitative easing, but Mario Draghi said that the balance of risks was shifted to the downside, which was a catalyst for sales of the euro. Markets closely monitor every word of the heads of regulators. Prior to this, Jerome Powell's phrase about the proximity of the current values of the federal funds rate to the neutral level was a sentence to the dollar; at the end of the second week of December, his rival was stunned by the head of the ECB. If earlier he spoke about balanced risks, now about downward risks. This was enough to trigger a wave of sales of EUR / USD.

Furthermore. Instead of growing against the background of a truce between the US and China, European business activity, by contrast, continued to peak, which, in no small measure, contributed to the events in France.

Dynamics of European business activityksBTx_auDMSz0d8Cb5VxIJImBya8rr_p3M5omaD8If the previous forecasts of the ECB do not come to life, and it reduces the estimate of GDP growth for 2018-2019, then what kind of recovery of the upward trend in EUR / USD can we talk about? It is possible that the US economy will slow down after an impressive April-October, but it will still look better than European! At the same time, the principle "strong economy - strong currency" has not been canceled.

If the market does not go in the direction where it is expected to be seen, then it is more likely to go in the opposite direction. In this regard, the week to December 14 may be a sign for the main currency pair. Releases of data on US inflation and European business activity, paired with the meeting of the ECB did not lead to its growth. Perhaps the idea of selling US dollars amid a slowdown in the cycle of normalizing the monetary policy of the Fed is not worth a damn? We will get the answer on December 19, when the results of the last 2018 FOMC meeting will be announced. Investors are counting on an increase in the federal funds rate to 2.5% and a decrease in estimates of its future values. In September, the central bank planned to tighten monetary policy three times in 2019, however, it is likely that it will reduce the number of acts of monetary restriction to two.

Technically, on the daily EUR / USD chart, there is a transformation of the Shark pattern at 5-0. Reversing to the level of 38.2% of the CD wave allowed us to form short positions. A pair of quotes outside the lower limit of the 1.1265-1.1465 trading range will strengthen the risks of restoring the medium-term downtrend.

EUR / USD, the daily chart

tsznwQLtvl74kAPWkLoEwYfFKR46VQeFN2gnv2LXThe material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Simplified wave analysis of EUR / JPY pair for the week of December 14

Large-scale graph:

The perspective vector of price movement coincides with the last bullish wave construction of May 29. In the wave structure, the final part (C) is not completed.

sci6oBUjSt_bLNSMzpFSp1_6fHw_hysMiHeQPPdb

Medium-scale graph:

Starting from October 26, the price moves mainly in the lateral direction. In this case, the final part (C) is formed in the structure of the higher wave from this time.

AzhpUAG7zodWV-S4s45-U7YA3NuDrDTLZFp8xtIC

Small-scale graphics:

From December 4, the price began to form the next upward wave zigzag. After the completion of the bearish pullback, the final part will follow. In this case, there is a high probability of a domino effect with the price increase going up several wave levels at once.

Forecast and recommendations:

In the upcoming weekly period, the probability of a price surge on several figures increases at once, due to the coincidence of the structures of models of different scale. It is recommended to track buy signals. A temporary guide can serve as the release of important data in the calendar of economic news.

Resistance zones:

- 131.20 / 131.70

Support areas:

- 128.00 / 127.50

Explanations of the figures:

The simplified wave analysis uses waves consisting of 3 parts (A – B – C). For the analysis, three main TFs are used. On every last part, the incomplete wave is analyzed. Zones show calculated areas with the highest probability of reversal. The arrows indicate the wave marking by the method used by the author. The solid background shows the formed structure while the dotted shows the expected movement.

Note: The wave algorithm does not take into account the duration of tool movements over time. To conduct a trade transaction, you need confirmation signals from the trading systems you use!

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Analysis of Gold for December 14, 2018

analytics5c13b46d1fd34.png

Recently, Gold has been trading downwards. The price tested the level of $1,234.00. According to the H4 time – frame, I have found the breakout of the bearish flag in the background and successful rejection of the resistance trendline, which is a sign that sellers are in control and that buying looks risky. I also found that hidden bearish divergence on the MACD oscillator, which is another sign of the weakness. Watch for selling opportunities on the rally. The downward targets are set at the price of $1,229.30 and at the price of $1,216.80.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Europe said no: pound ends the week on a minor note

The European Union told Britain "no". The leaders of the European powers refused the request of Theresa May to clarify the key points of the deal regarding the Irish border. Moreover, Brussels accused the British prime minister of the vagueness of the voiced demands. The head of the European Commission, Jean-Claude Juncker, most succinctly described the situation. "We are ready to help Britain only if we are properly explained what exactly they want from us." After that, he expressed the hope that in the coming weeks, London will formulate clear parameters for his requests. Theresa May, in turn, completely refused to comment. Contrary to the established tradition, it did not communicate with the press at the end of the first day of the summit and silently left Brussels.

iNBYmBJGYCJubf-TIgmhbGEWKSFlwJPcbgfgg9X_Today, when the summit's final document was announced, it became clear that the British prime minister simply had nothing to say. In addition to the fact that Brussels categorically refused to revise the agreement, it further stressed that the backstop mechanism is an inseparable part of the deal that is a guarantee of the agreements reached. Any further discussions are possible only during the transition period, that is, after March 29, 2019.

This formulation suggests that London will not receive any legal guarantees regarding the validity period of the back-stop action, which means the situation has returned to zero. Obviously, this issue is now postponed to the next year, since on December 20, the British deputies are leaving for the holidays, just like their European counterparts. In the office of the British Prime Minister today, it was reported that they will work on this issue from today. However, the parliament will not be able to consider the deal until mid-January. The Austrian Prime Minister, in turn, allowed that another EU summit could take place in January, at which "additional guarantees" could be agreed upon, but only if London formulates its requirements "in an acceptable form".

As you can see, the parties prefer to voice veiled and cautious phrases, the essence of which boils down to the fact that the key decisions will be made at the last moment. According to experts, the British Parliament should vote for the deal until January 21, so that further procedural moments would end before March 29, 2019. In other words, London will need to formulate new proposals that, on the one hand, will satisfy the demands of the British deputies, on the other hand, they will allow Brussels to coordinate them without affecting the text of the deal.WBm2aPuqi-S4YFd514y0j5xSNrZc8ZVUhUwnXo_yThe task is very difficult and looks almost impossible, so the pound today collapsed to annual lows. The probability of a "hard" Brexit is growing again, and the time until "X hour" remains less and less. Brussels, as expected, demonstrates a principled and uncompromising attitude. These are all part of a certain tactic of pressure on the British. It is noteworthy that Jean-Claude Juncker, voicing the results of the past summit "by the way", stated that on December 19 the European Commission will publish a plan of preparation for the chaotic Brexit. Thus, Europe makes it clear that the deal is needed first of all by Britain, so they must be content with the agreements that have already been reached. As they say, "to be continued ...".

While the pound is falling, the US currency again "skims off," taking advantage of the current market situation. Despite the slowdown in US inflation, the dollar is still in demand, as it is viewed by the market as a currency of refuge.

And it's not just Brexit. The fact is that this morning, China has published fairly weak data indicating a slowdown in the world's largest economy. For example, the indicator of retail sales in the Middle Kingdom fell to the level of 8.1%, this is the weakest growth rate over the past 15 years, and the volume of industrial production fell to 5.4%, that is, to the lows of February 2016. Such dynamics again actualized the problem of slowing down of the world economy, with all the ensuing consequences. In particular, regarding the prospects of tightening monetary policy by the central banks of the leading countries of the world.

7fSXAGaSi2yxlMr9JDuazDwjc1ddwaHpuoesfZlg

The US stock market was again under pressure, while the dollar index went up again, returning to the 97-point frame. However, now we cannot talk about the rally of the dollar. Until the December meeting of the Fed (which will take place next week), the greenback will be under background pressure, given the discussions about the level of the neutral rate and the slowdown in inflation rates.

Summarizing what has been said, let's summarize. The pound ends the week on a minor note, under conditions of uncertainty and high probability of a "hard" Brexit. Theresa May's immunity from impeachment is a poor consolation since the key issue has remained in limbo. Given the prevailing fundamental background, a pair of GBP / USD has the potential to further decline. The closest support level is located at around 1.2530, this is the bottom line of the Bollinger Bands indicator on the daily chart.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Simplified wave analysis of GOLD for December 14

Large-scale graphics:

The price of gold on the daily scale of the chart since the beginning of the year has been consistently shifted down. Some diversity was introduced by the oncoming wave of the scale H4, which became a correction in the main structure.

j1FtQAxI7vZdxf04rQSGk73etuEqTgCSOySvYWvT

Medium scale graphics:

The price of the tool since August 16 moved up. The upper limit of the large-scale reversal zone has been reached. Reversal signals are not yet formed.

9LtHoonqGlM8feBP3WP4RUP3XQOSmJqwHIieHf3K

Small-scale graphics:

The ascending portion of November 13 is at the end of the bullish wave of the older TF. The structure of the movement does not show completeness.

Forecast and recommendations:

Until the end of this year, conditions may arise under which the short-term trend of gold will change its direction. When shopping, it is better to reduce the lot to a minimum. When the price reaches the calculated resistance, it is recommended to start tracking the sale signals of the instrument.

Resistance zones:

- 1260.0 / 1265.0

Support areas:

- 1230.0 / 1225.0

Explanations for the figures: The simplified wave analysis uses waves consisting of 3 parts (A – B – C). The analysis uses 3 consecutive scale graph. Each of them analyzes the last, incomplete wave. Zones show calculated areas with the highest probability of reversal. The arrows indicate the wave marking by the method used by the author. The solid background shows the formed structure, the dotted - the expected movement.

Attention: The wave algorithm does not take into account the duration of tool movements over time. To conduct a trade transaction, you need confirmation signals from the trading systems you use!

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

The gold rally will last until the end of December - opinion

GRBDFPSsAzn_9MEr9yvRupOJmqR_D9wlc7tuOTB-

According to some analysts, the price rally of gold may continue until the end of this year. This opinion is shared by the expert on the market of precious metals, Boris Mikanikrezai.

In December 2018, analysts recorded an increase in gold futures from $ 1,235 to $ 1,250 per ounce. According to B. Mikanikrezai, in the last month of the outgoing year, the price rally of the precious metal demonstrates stable dynamics.

The key driver of growth in the value of the yellow metal in December was the announcement of the US Federal Reserve System (FRS). Recall that the regulator is in favor of a moderate increase in interest rates. According to Jerome Powell, the head of the Fed, his department's monetary policy will remain neutral, and decisions will be made based on current statistics.

According to the publication The Wall Street Journal, in December this year, the Fed may raise rates again, but then take a long pause in this matter. Experts do not exclude that this pause will last two years.

According to expert estimates, the Fed's policy change will provide significant support to the gold market, as the US dollar and current interest rates will be under pressure. As a result, the demand for the yellow metal will increase, experts predict.

According to B. Mikanikrezai, in the near future, a number of investors will begin to replenish their portfolio with safe assets, including gold. Due to this, the demand for the yellow metal will remain at a consistently high level, the analyst sums up.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Wave analysis of GBP / USD for December 14. Brexit uncertainty does not allow the pound to grow.

3EGVFiRJ7Iwmox7wqFis_DvTxl4xMRm401qbF4bL

Wave counting analysis:

During the trading on December 13, the GBP / USD currency pair added about another 20 basis points more. Thus, the estimated wave 5, a, is considered complete at this stage. If this is indeed the case, then the instrument has moved to the construction of a correction wave b. However, a non-cast Brexit vote leaves a lot of uncertainty on this issue, which leads to a lack of support from the news background. The pound is still difficult to grow in the context of an unresolved issue on Brexit.

The objectives for the option with purchases:

1.2696 - 100.0% of Fibonacci

1.2807 - 76.4% of Fibonacci

The objectives for the option with sales:

1.2398 - 161.8% of Fibonacci

1.2218 - 200.0% of Fibonacci

General conclusions and trading recommendations:

The currency pair GBP / USD could complete the construction of wave 5, a. A successful attempt to break through the mark of 1.2696, which equates to 100.0% of Fibonacci, will confirm the transition of the pair to the construction of the rising wave b. In this case, I will recommend buying small volumes with targets located around 1.2807, which corresponds to 76.4% Fibonacci. An unsuccessful attempt to break through the level of 1.2696 may lead to the complication of wave a.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Indicator analysis. The daily review of the currency pair EUR / USD for December 14, 2018.

Trend analysis (Fig. 1).

On Friday, according to the technique, it is possible to move upwards with the first goal of 1.1394, the upper fractal. When breaking through, the continuation of the upper work.

cK6l4acDmw9dxIcXjfrSVMUynTVsvQgH5Aq4CcSA

Fig. 1 (daily schedule).

Comprehensive analysis:

- Indicator analysis - up;

- Fibonacci levels - up;

- Volumes - top;

- Candlestick analysis is neutral;

- Trend analysis - up;

- Bollinger lines - up;

- Weekly schedule - up.

General conclusion:

On Friday, according to the technique, it is possible to move upwards with the first goal of 1.1394, the upper fractal. When breaking through, the continuation of the upper work.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Indicator analysis. The daily review of the currency pair GBP / USD for December 14, 2018.

Trend analysis (Fig. 1).

On Friday, the uptrend with the first target of 1.2700 is the historical resistance level (blue dotted line).

7u5qF8j_hxAnGHG-2SeeaPnUiLVoPz26zrJjlQ1M

Fig. 1 (daily schedule).

Comprehensive analysis:

- Indicator analysis - up;

- Fibonacci levels - up;

- Volumes - up;

- Candlestick analysis - up;

- Trend analysis - up;

- Bollinger lines - up;

- Weekly schedule - up.

General conclusion:

On Friday, the uptrend with the first target of 1.2700 is the historical resistance level (blue dotted line). From 1.2601, you can work up.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Wave analysis of EUR / USD for December 14. The horizontal section of the trend.

SIDndwKN9Jtn832gW4yqCg-EfeuWBcJ7l6uoRxwh

Wave counting analysis:

In the course of trading on Thursday, the EUR / USD currency pair lost several points. The trend segment, taking its beginning on November 28, takes a horizontal shape and still belongs to the estimated wave from the corrective trend segment. Thus, this wave takes on a very complex internal structure, but targets located near the level of 100.0% remain in force. But a successful attempt to break through the 23.6% mark on Fibonacci will indicate that the instrument is ready to build a new downward trend, and the wave will take a shortened look.

The objectives for the option with sales:

1.1215 - 0.0% of Fibonacci

The objectives for the option with purchases:

1.1471 - 100.0% of Fibonacci

1.1528 - 127.2% of Fibonacci

General conclusions and trading recommendations:

The currency pair continues to be in the framework of building an upward wave c. A break of 1.1315 will lead to a resumption of the decline with targets located near the estimated mark of 1.1215, which is equal to 0.0% Fibonacci and lower. Therefore, I recommend selling no earlier than this breakthrough. I recommend to buy a pair only intraday until a successful attempt to break through the level of 1.1315 is made, with targets located on the way to 1.1471.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

GBP / USD. December 14th. The trading system. "Regression Channels". The pound failed to overcome the moving, a new fall?

4-hour timeframe

_hbEI9-cZt-LegBjjx7wWvLyjoyk9Gr8Z_zUNtmQ

Technical details:

The senior linear regression channel: direction - down.

The junior linear regression channel: direction - down.

Moving average (20; smoothed) - down.

CCI: -11.7614

The GBP / USD currency pair has worked several times the moving but failed to consolidate above it, therefore, from a technical point of view, it is now more likely that the downward movement will resume. From a fundamental point of view, there is nothing special to note now, since, during yesterday, there were no reports on the subject of Brexit. Thus, the pound had nothing to react to. To date, no macroeconomic reports are planned in the UK. In the United States, data on retail sales, industrial production and preliminary values of indices of business activity in the areas of services and production will be published. Potentially, these data may affect the movement of the pair, but the British currency and traders are now much more interested in any information on Brexit, and not American reports, which are not the most important. Thus, as before, we believe that the best development option for the pound would be the absence of new falls until the moment of voting in parliament. However, for this, the pair must at least overcome the moving.

Nearest support levels:

S1 - 1.2573

S2 - 1.2512

S3 - 1.2451

Nearest resistance levels:

R1 - 1.2634

R2 - 1.2695

R3 - 1.2756

Trading recommendations:

The GBP / USD currency pair remains in a downward mood. The Heikin Ashi indicator turned down, so now it is relevant to sell orders with targets of 1.2512 and 1.2451.

It is recommended to open long positions not earlier than traders overcome the moving average line. But even in this case, the positions should be small, since the pound has no fundamental support.

In addition to the technical picture, you should also consider the fundamental data and the time of their release.

Explanations for illustrations:

The senior linear regression channel is the blue lines of the unidirectional movement.

The junior linear channel is the purple lines of the unidirectional movement.

CCI is the blue line in the indicator regression window.

The moving average (20; smoothed) is the blue line on the price chart.

Murray levels - multi-colored horizontal stripes.

Heikin Ashi is an indicator that colors bars in blue or purple.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

EUR / USD. December 14th. The trading system. "Regression Channels". Draghi pressed on the euro, but the currency has resisted

4-hour timeframe

kyKOTpBonP9RytZQcd7MB6rybyUCh7HBl4ltApKa

Technical details:

The senior linear regression channel: direction - down.

The junior linear regression channel: direction - down.

Moving average (20; smoothed) - sideways.

CCI: -53.6995

The currency pair EUR / USD on Friday, December 14, declined slightly, but this was enough to once again overcome the moving average line. In recent days, and even weeks, there is no trend movement, the pair is constantly changing the direction of movement and is fixed, then above, then below the moving average line. For the euro, this is not bad. At least, there is no new fall. Yesterday's speech at a press conference on the ECB meeting, Mario Draghi was dangerous for the Eurocurrency. First, Draghi noted a slowdown in the EU economy by the end of 2018. Secondly, he said that the tightening of monetary policy should not be premature, and normalization will be slower than originally expected. In principle, this means that in the coming months, you can not count on a rate increase. Against the background of such reports, the euro could lose even more positions. The traders didn't forget that this month, the European regulator is curtailing the quantitative easing program, so the euro has fallen "within reason." Draghi also noted that it is now difficult to predict anything, since trade relations between the EU and the States are not fully understood, and the situation with Brexit.

Nearest support levels:

S1 - 1.1353

S2 - 1,1292

S3 - 1.1230

Nearest resistance levels:

R1 - 1,1414

R2 - 1.1475

R3 - 1.1536

Trading recommendations:

The EUR / USD currency pair has fixed below the MA. Thus, short positions with the target of 1.1292 are relevant now. However, in the opening of any positions now need to be extremely careful, as there is a high probability of flat.

It is recommended to open buy positions not earlier than the price is fixed back above the moving, in small lots, with a target of 1.1414. As in the case of short positions, you should consider the high probability of flat and frequent reversals of the pair.

In addition to the technical picture, you should also consider the fundamental data and the time of their release.

Explanations for illustrations:

The senior linear regression channel is the blue lines of the unidirectional movement.

The younger linear regression channel is the purple lines of the unidirectional movement.

CCI - blue line in the indicator window.

The moving average (20; smoothed) is the blue line on the price chart.

Murray levels - multi-colored horizontal stripes.

Heikin Ashi is an indicator that colors bars in blue or purple.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Analysis of the divergence of EUR / USD for December 14. The euro is barely holding above 1.13.

4h

knmvCI6o6rZeT5Ty8JGT97wsgc4MsKHRIdvkHdnB

The currency pair EUR / USD, after the rebound from the correction level of 100.0% - 1.1303, performed a reversal in favor of the European currency and retains the likelihood of continued growth in the direction of the correctional level of 76.4% - 1.1423. Overcoming divergences today are not observed in any indicator. Rebounding the rate of the pair on December 14 from the Fibo level of 76.4% will make it possible to expect a reversal in favor of the US dollar and a slight drop in the direction of the correction level of 100.0%.

The Fibo grid is built on extremes from August 15, 2018, and September 24, 2018.

Daily

i31PnO-KLEF--kcKBgYb4necbR4GJyxuVc3ZxDVW

On the 24-hour chart, the currency pair still retains the possibility of growth in the direction of the Fibo level of 100.0% - 1.1553, since the rebound from the level of 127.2% was performed. However, it is not possible to continue growth. Fixing the pair quotes under the correction level of 127.2% - 1.1285 can be interpreted as a reversal in favor of the American currency and you can expect some fall in the direction of the correctional level of 161.8% - 1.0941.

The Fib net is built on extremums from November 7, 2017, and February 16, 2018.

Recommendations to traders:

Purchases of the EUR / USD currency pair can be carried out now with a target of 1.1423 and a Stop Loss order under the Fibo level of 100.0% since the pair has completed the rebound from the 1.1303 level.

Sales of the EUR / USD currency pair will be possible with the goal of 1.1303 with a Stop Loss order above the Fibo level of 76.4% if the pair bounces off the correction level of 1.1423 (hourly chart).

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Analysis of GBP / USD Divergences for December 14th. The pound sterling is preparing for a new fall

4h

T5JmNBP_hcgbyiQLxisinInMb1_NyO_oynFQMdQo

The GBP / USD currency pair on the 4-hour chart performed the second rebound from the correction level of 100.0% - 1.2662 with a reversal in favor of the American dollar. As a result, on December 14, the process of falling quotations can be continued in the direction of the correctional level of 127.2% - 1.2491. There are no ripening divergences today. Fixing the pair above the Fibo level of 100.0% will allow us to expect growth to resume in the direction of the next correction level of 76.4% - 1.2812.

The Fibo grid was built on extremes from August 15, 2018, and September 20, 2018.

1h

M18fOAY_h_mBDSefyE8Xxl1nUCOgnAroC1jYnGXu

On the hourly chart, after the formation of a bearish divergence, the quotes performed a reversal in favor of the US currency and began the process of returning to the correctional level of 127.2% - 1.2566. The rebound of the pair from the Fibo level of 127.2% will make it possible to expect a turn in favor of the British currency and the resumption of growth in the direction of the correction level of 100.0% - 1.2696. Fixing quotations below the Fibo level of 127.2% will increase the chances for a further fall in the direction of the next correction level of 161.8% - 1.2400.

The Fib net is built on extremes from October 30, 2018, and November 7, 2018.

Recommendations to traders:

Purchases of the GBP / USD currency pair can be made with the target of 1.2696 and a Stop Loss order below the level of 127.2% if the pair bounces off of the correction level of 1.2566 (hourly chart).

Sales of the GBP / USD currency pair can be carried out now with a target of 1.2566 and a Stop Loss order over the peak of divergence since a bearish divergence has formed (4-hour chart).

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

ECB confirmed market expectations

As the date of the key US Federal Reserve meeting approached, there was another unpleasant surprise from the Department of Labor, indicating a slowdown in inflation in the country. Export prices declined in November by 0.9%, import prices by 1.6%, both indicators turned out to be noticeably worse than forecasts. On an annualized basis, export and import prices slowed down from 3.1% to 1.8%, respectively, and from 0.5% to -1.6%, both indicators are noticeably worse than experts' forecasts.

The dynamics of import and export prices completely repeats the dynamics of consumer inflation, and in the conditions of worsening trade balance, this will lead to a decrease in budget revenues.

xDAOxtp0lousfBu5mS8VhqkCC67LxenPs3Se4FEy

Today, a report on retail sales in November will be published, and in the flesh until the date of the Fed meeting will not receive any new information on price dynamics. Despite the fact that the root value of consumer inflation is still kept at a high level and gives the Fed the right to raise rates in December, all other price markers indicate a strong slowdown in price growth.

The latest data is not on the side of the dollar, because they increase the likelihood of the Fed revising forecasts to the downside.

Eurozone

The results of the ECB meeting on Thursday turned out to be expected, did not lead to an increase in the volatility of the euro. All key rates remain unchanged and will remain at current levels at least until the end of the summer, net purchases of assets will be terminated by the end of December, all of these markets before the meeting were regarded as the most likely result.

The ECB defined the risks for growth prospects in the Eurozone as "widely balanced", but acknowledged that the balance of risks is shifting to the downside due to persistent geopolitical uncertainty, protectionism, weakening developing countries and increased volatility in financial markets.

As for the economic forecasts, they were slightly revised, and this is probably the only thing that surprised the players, since the key indicators of economic growth are clearly unconvincing.

8hOvbhB60tVWeEfzo5cSf3Xvy57s6-IS4Iu4TeNo

The program of reinvesting payments from the redemption of securities held on the ECB balance sheet will be continued in full, this step was also calculated in advance as necessary to maintain the flow of liquidity and contain the euro. Procurement in the public sector will be increased, that is, the ECB will remain a major buyer in the bond market.

The currency pair EUR / USD still has no reason to leave the range of 1.1325 - 1.1415 and will wait for the publication of data on inflation on Monday, December 17.

Great Britain

The outcome of the one-day EU summit for London turned out to be disappointing. The European Union will prepare for the UK exit regardless of whether an agreement is approved or not, and does not intend to start new negotiations.

Theresa May, not receiving any concessions from the EU, left the summit without comment. The pound did not respond to the summit results either, since the players did not hear anything new.

Despite the fact that GBP / USD is stable for the second day, there are no reasons to wait for growth above 1.2670, most likely a drift to a minimum of 1.2480 with a subsequent attempt to leave lower.

Russia

Today, the Bank of Russia will hold a regular monetary policy meeting. Markets assess the likelihood of raising the key rate as quite serious, explaining such a move both by rising inflation expectations and by the threat of the introduction of another package of restrictive measures from a number of western countries.

At the same time, no accurate forecasts can be made, since representatives of the Bank of Russia did not give any comments or hints about a possible change in monetary policy. The stability of the ruble exchange rate suggests that players in general are waiting for a balanced decision, for example, the Central Bank can announce simultaneously raising the rate by 0.25% and resuming currency purchases for the Ministry of Finance, which will keep the ruble close to current levels.

The dynamics of the ruble exchange rate will be determined by the outcome of the meeting of the CBR, depending on whether it is soft or hard, the USDRUB can move either to support 64.60 or to resistance 68.20.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Investors are waiting for the outcome of the Fed meeting

The situation on world markets is still ambiguous. The resumption of negotiations between the US and China on trade has brought some revival and led to higher hopes for resolving this crisis, but they remain unsteady and can crumble at any moment like a house of cards. Another important point constrains the actions of investors, at least in Europe, this is the problem of Brexit. The meeting of EU leaders on Thursday confirmed the persistent desire of continental Europe to "expose" Britain from the union, with or without an agreement.

There are positive points for investors, as they believe. First of all, this is a signal from the ECB, which, following yesterday's meeting, made it clear that with the termination of the incentive program this month, the regulator will not be in a hurry to start raising interest rates next year and will also continue to reinvest some of the money, somewhat modified, but a variant of soft monetary policy. Secondly, the markets are hoping that in the wake of signals that the US economy is slowing down, the Fed will stop raising interest rates or at least pause the process. All this has a general chilling effect on the markets and contributes to increased volatility.

In the foreign exchange market, the main currency pairs, in general, remain in narrow ranges in anticipation of the final decision of the Fed on monetary policy at the two-day meeting on December 19-20. In accordance with the dynamics of futures on federal funds rates, it is assumed that the key interest rate will be increased by the next 0.25% to 2.50% with a probability of 78.4%. Now, the market is no longer interested in this fact, but in what the Fed will have plans for next year. Will their plan to continue to actively raise interest rates or will their plans change? Now, this is the main question, which is the reason for the slowdown of activity in the currency markets.

Given this state of affairs, we believe that the overall picture of consolidation in the markets until the outcome of the Fed meeting will continue.

Forecast of the day:

The AUD / USD currency pair fell below the level of 0.7200 in the wake of the publication of weak data on the volume of industrial production in China, with which Australia has close economic ties. If the price keeps below this level, it is likely that it will fall to 0.7150.

The NZD / USD currency pair is above the level of 0.6800 and is also under pressure against the background of Chinese economic statistics. If the price holds below this level, it may continue to decline to 0.6750.

yZ4l2Y6XJAUeUtE6BWYa7toYzKTdX13DvvoA3G9f

8udSFpTWN8C0Tg_A-eQtQePMTDq2F4HTtH2rFS9c

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

The forecast for AUD / USD for December 14, 2018

AUD / USD

In the past review of AUD / USD, we wrote, "as is usually the case with the "Australian", its growth against the market very quickly turns into an accelerated fall." Already this morning, the "Australian" overtook other strong currencies in this fall. This may have been due to weakened data for China. In November, industrial production slowed down from 5.9% y / y to 5.4% y / y, retail sales also increased: 8.1% y / y against 8.6% y / y a month earlier. The unemployment rate fell to 4.8% from 4.9%. Commodity markets are declining. In particular, copper is losing 0.43% this morning.

On the daily chart, the price breaks through the support of the Kruzenstern line. The price reversal occurred from the same line, but on a four-hour chart. We continue to wait for the price at the previously indicated levels of 0.7150, 0.7042, at least October 8, 0.7014, support for the price channel line.

U-cPj_pGFsGYLLW9QV6mOUrg5M8xoLgg7l_qNXEH

QintdpI2H3Ka2j_Uv5eFE3SzLvGT7huH-Z_h1BrLThe material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Fractal analysis of major currency pairs for December 14

Dear colleagues.

For the Euro / Dollar currency pair, we mainly expect the development of the downward structure of December 10, which should occur after the breakdown of 1.1310. For the Pound / Dollar currency pair, the price has designed a pronounced structure for the development of the upward movement of December 11 and the development of this structure is expected after the breakdown of 1.2680. For the currency pair Dollar / Franc, we consider the ascending structure of December 11 as the main one. For the currency pair Dollar / Yen, we have expanded the potential for the upward cycle from December 10 to the level of 114.83. For the Euro / Yen currency pair, we follow the formation of the upward structure of December 6 and the development of which as a cycle is expected after the breakdown of 129.34. For the Pound / Yen currency pair, the development of the upward structure of December 11 is expected after the breakdown of 114.18.

Forecast for December 14:

Analytical review of H1-scale currency pairs:UNodUBlNdqz-g4zWfaz6ZqqnzhaxIWVlUrjrjMbuFor the Euro / Dollar currency pair, the key levels on the H1 scale are: 1.1442, 1.1406, 1.1383, 1.1310, 1.1279, 1.1253 and 1.1220. Here, we are following the descending structure of December 10. At the moment, the price is in a deep correction. A downward movement is expected after the breakdown of 1.1310. In this case, the target is 1.1279 and the breakdown of which should be accompanied by a short-term downward movement in the range of 1.1279 - 1.1253. The potential value for the bottom is considered the level of 1.1220, upon reaching which we expect a rollback to the top.

The short-term upward movement is possible in the range of 1.1383 - 1.1406 and the breakdown of the latter value will have to form an upward structure. In this case, the first potential target is 1.1442.

The main trend is the downward structure of December 10, the stage of deep correction.

Trading recommendations:

Buy 1.1385 Take profit: 1.1404

Buy 1.1408 Take profit: 1.1440

Sell: 1.1310 Take profit: 1.1282

Sell: 1.1277 Take profit: 1.1255kkY5MRomcSINT17NfAZaiiGCSohUf2pqnhmrOUK-For the Pound / Dollar currency pair, the key levels on the H1 scale are: 1.2865, 1.2813, 1.2741, 1.2679, 1.2592, 1.2552, 1.2517, 1.2475 and 1.2417. Here, the price has issued a pronounced potential for the top of December 11. An upward movement is expected after the breakdown of 1.2679. In this case, the target is 1.2741 and price consolidation is near this level. The breakdown of the level of 1.2741 should be accompanied by a pronounced upward movement. Here, the target is 1.2813. The potential value for the top is considered the level of 1.2865, upon reaching which we expect consolidation, as well as a rollback to the top.

The short-term downward movement is possible in the range of 1.2592 - 1.2552 and the breakdown of the last value will lead to a prolonged correction. Here, the target is 1.2517 and this level is the key support for the top. Its price will have to form the initial conditions for the upward cycle. In this case, the target is 1.2475.

The main trend is the formation of the ascending structure of December 11.

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 1.2680 Take profit: 1.2740

Buy: 1.2744 Take profit: 1.2813

Sell: 1.2591 Take profit: 1.2552

Sell: 1.2550 Take profit: 1.25178i7sOT4lOH-9C14GLgtSKNPPb1fjwt-Epe9mpkx-For the Dollar / Franc currency pair, the key levels on the H1 scale are: 1.0042, 1.0014, 0.9995, 0.9966, 0.9954, 0.9919, 0.9900, 0.9889 and 0.9863. Here, we are following the formation of the upward structure from December 11 and the development of which is expected after the price passes the range of 0.9954 - 0.9966. In this case, the target is 0.9995 and in the range of 0.9995 - 1.0014 is the short-term upward movement, as well as consolidation. The potential value for the top is considered the level of 1.0042, upon reaching which we expect a rollback downwards.

Exit to correction is expected after the breakdown of 0.9919. In this case, the target is 0.9900 and the range of 0.9900 - 0.9889 is the key support for the top. Its price passage will have to develop a downward structure. In this case, the potential target is 0.9863.

The main trend is the ascending structure of December 11.

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 0.9966 Take profit: 0.9995

Buy: 0.9997 Take profit: 1.0014

Sell: 0.9917 Take profit: 0.9900

Sell: 0.9889 Take profit: 0.9865

5oruBGA6HBRlvaRKTTmJL61_RAEaMwY59MxOr6L9

For the Dollar / Yen currency pair, the key levels on the scale of H1 are: 114.83, 114.45, 114.13, 113.72, 113.30, 113.07 and 112.76. Here, we are following the development of the bottom-up structure from December 10th. An upward movement is expected after the breakdown of 113.72. Here, the target is 114.13 and in the range of 114.13 - 114.45 is the short-term upward movement, as well as consolidation. The potential value for the top is considered the level of 114.83, after reaching which we expect a consolidated movement, as well as a rollback to the correction.

The short-term downward movement is possible in the range of 113.30 - 113.07 and the breakdown of the latter value will lead to a prolonged correction. Here, the goal is 112.76 and this level is the key support for the top.

The main trend is the rising structure of December 10.

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 113.72 Take profit: 114.10

Buy: 114.14 Take profit: 114.42

Sell: 113.30 Take profit: 113.10

Sell: 113.04 Take profit: 112.80

eU4nBEo_B3LGzwE6Q0Sb1cw6AFQuxC3S-X7RU0tF

For the Canadian dollar / Dollar currency pair, the key levels on the H1 scale are: 1.3557, 1.3521, 1.3465, 1.3429, 1.3344, 1.3311 and 1.3247. Here, the price forms the local potential for the top of December 7th. The short-term upward movement is possible in the range of 1.3429 - 1.3465 and the breakdown of the latter value should be accompanied by a pronounced upward movement. Here, the target is 1.3521. The potential value for the top is considered the level of 1.3557, upon reaching which we expect consolidation, as well as a rollback to the top.

The range of 1.3344 - 1.3311 is the key support for the upward structure of December 7. Its price passage will have a downward movement development. In this case, the target is 1.3247 and this level is the key resistance for the bottom.

The main trend is the local structure for the top of December 7, the stage of deep correction.

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 1.3430 Take profit: 1.3465

Buy: 1.3467 Take profit: 1.3520

Sell: 1.3343 Take profit: 1.3113

Sell: 1.3308 Take profit: 1.3255q1oNDR5IFkXuHOvwSELX1lm6vm5eQ4MI_V1Sx1QN

For the Australian dollar / dollar currency pair, the key levels on the H1 scale are: 0.7290, 0.7257, 0.7237, 0.7196, 0.7166, 0.7127 and 0.7100. Here, we are following the development of the downward structure of December 4th. The short-term downward movement is possible in the range of 0.7196 - 0.7166 and the breakdown of the latter value will lead to a pronounced movement. Here, the target is 0.7127. The potential value for the bottom is considered to be the level of 0.7100, upon reaching which we expect consolidation, as well as a rollback to the top.

The short-term uptrend is possible in the range of 0.7237 - 0.7257 and the breakdown of the latter value will lead to a deep correction. Here, the target is 0.7290 and this level is the key support for the downward structure of December 4.

The main trend is the downward structure of December 4.

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 0.7237 Take profit: 0.7255

Buy: 0.7258 Take profit: 0.7290

Sell: 0.7196 Take profit: 0.7166

Sell: 0.7164 Take profit: 0.7130KNT_AsLNs5jLQ5fMyMJ2LGN6hxr6dv0cRjurgD16

For the Euro / Yen currency pair, the key levels on the H1 scale are: 130.13, 129.82, 129.34, 128.95, 128.36, 128.09, 127.68 and 127.43. Here, we follow the formation of the ascending structure of December 6. The short-term upward movement is expected in the range of 128.95 - 129.34 and the breakdown of the latter value will lead to the development of a pronounced movement. In this case, the goal is 129.82. The potential value for the top is considered the level of 130.13, upon reaching which we expect consolidation, as well as a rollback to the top.

The short-term downward movement is possible in the range of 128.36 - 128.09, hence a high probability of a reversal upwards. The breakdown of the level of 128.09 will have to form a local structure for the downward movement. In this case, the goal is 127.68 and the range of 127.68 - 127.43.

The main trend is the formation of the ascending structure of December 6.

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 128.95 Take profit: 129.30

Buy: 129.37 Take profit: 129.80

Sell: 128.34 Take profit: 128.12

Sell: 128.05 Take profit: 127.702m2P1IJ4Oo8ijTKR6GVXq_wPB7TJDWakFTNSN9nx

For the Pound / Yen currency pair, the key levels on the H1 scale are: 144.18, 143.91, 143.54, 142.70, 142.42, 141.91 and 141.46. Here, the price has issued a pronounced potential for the top of December 11. The continuation of the upward trend is expected after the breakdown of 143.54. In this case, the goal is 143.91 and consolidation is near this level. Passing through the range of 143.91 - 144.18 will make it possible to count on the movement towards a potential target of 144.95, from this level, we expect a downward rollback.

The short-term downward movement is possible in the range of 142.70 - 142.42 and the breakdown of the last value to the prolonged correction. Here, the target is 141.91 and this level is the key support for the upward structure.

The main trend is the formation of potential for the top of December 11.

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 143.55 Take profit: 143.90

Buy: 144.20 Take profit: 144.90

Sell: 142.70 Take profit: 142.45

Sell: 142.38 Take profit: 142.00

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

ECB vs euro rally?

eqOm3HtCf-Y8ld7_V6SWAdg572EgeJB1MmCcTEzX

The growth of the euro can hold back inflation in the region, so the European Central Bank will try to rein in its currency if the Fed takes care in December or early next year. This opinion was voiced by strategists Banco Santander, exploring the dynamics of the ten leading currencies of the world.

"The focus on risks indicates that the bank has returned to a pessimistic assessment of prospects, despite the fact that the forecasts for economic growth and inflation have not changed much in any direction, and asset purchases are coming to an end. It still sounds like the bank does not want the euro to start the rally. The growth of the single currency can prevent the acceleration of inflation," says in the comments of the financial corporation.

According to experts, the euro in a pair with the dollar may well soar to 1.20 on the difference in the monetary policy of the two countries. This will happen if the members of the Federal Reserve regarding the rates will be restrained, as well as their rhetoric, while European regulators will gradually increase the rates in the second half of 2019.

4pPubWy1HqADazTgU2le7EGVUlAmGfTPz6eXzng5

On Thursday, EUR / USD responded with a decline to the speech of the ECB President Mario Draghi, who made a statement at the last meeting this year. He announced that the regulator today has completed a historic program to stimulate economic growth.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Fundamental Analysis of NZD/USD for December 14, 2018

NZD/USD is currently quite impulsive with the bearish pressure, breaking below the 0.6850 area. Amid the recent economic reports and fundamental events, USD has managed to gain momentum over NZD, and this gain is expected to continue further.

New Zealand has been trying to improve its current banking system. RBNZ being stubborn about the interest rate and monetary policy decisions is assumed as the leading factor for sudden weakness of NZD. Recently, New Zealand FPI report has been published unchanged at -0.6% and today, Business NZ Manufacturing Index report has been released with a decrease to 53.5 from the previous figure of 53.7. The worse economic result caused NZD to lose grounds, pushing it much lower.

On the other hand, USD has been recently struggling to gain momentum over NZD amid the economic results and indecision of Federal Funds Rate Hike which confused the market sentiment for the upcoming momentum of the currency in the market. The risk of the US recession in the next two years has risen to 40% against the background of the sudden change in the interest rate hike decision for 2019. Recently, US Import Prices report has been published with a decrease to -1.6% from the previous value of 0.5% which was expected to be at -1.0%. Besides, Unemployment Claims has been released with a positive result with a decrease to 206k from the previous figure of 233k which was expected to be at 226k. Today, US Core Retail Sales is expected to decline to 0.2% from the previous value of 0.7%; and Retail Sales Index is expected to be down to 0.1% from the previous value of 0.8%. Moreover, Industrial Production is expected to increase to 0.3% from the previous value of 0.1%; and Business Inventories is also estimated to grow to 0.6% from the previous value of 0.3%.

Under the current scenario, USD is expected to sustain the bearish momentum in the pair while NZD is losing grounds due to worse economic results. Nevertheless, there is a chance that NZD will gain back momentum next week, since ANZ Business Confidence report is going to be published with a positive result in the market.

Now let us look from a technical perspective. After the previous formation of Bearish Divergence, the price is currently residing below the area of 0.6850 with a strong bearish pressure which is expected to close with a daily candle below the area as well. The price has recently pierced below the dynamic level of 20 EMA which indicates further bearish pressure in the coming days. As the price remains below the area of 0.6850 with a daily close, it is expected to push towards the 0.6700 area from where certain bullish pressure is expected in the future.

SUPPORT: 0.6500, 0.6700

RESISTANCE: 0.6850, 0.6950, 0.70

BIAS: BULLISH

MOMENTUM: VOLATILE

analytics5c138a7648c1c.png

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Trading Plan 12/14/2018

Trading Plan 12/14/2018

The overall picture: the market analyzes the news.

The main headlines of the news has passed.

ECB Decision: A huge in size and time program completed to inject liquidity into the markets with 2.6 trillion euros for 4 years.

The ECB rates will remain low until the summer of 2019. However, the money received from the redemption of bonds is about to expire. Purchases by the ECB under the QE program will not be withdrawn from the market but reinvested again in order not to compress the money supply.

On the EU Brexit Summit: Theresa May did not receive new support from the EU to fight for the approval of an agreement with the EU in the British Parliament. Theresa May hoped to get new guarantees, especially on the border with Ireland. However, on the contrary, the EU leaders tightened the tone of the statement after the meeting.

Theresa May was told - we see your heroic efforts to advance the agreement - but we don't see results.

The pound fell but not much.

Pound: We are ready to buy from 1.2690.

M8I2F22LtN0C0TDLfe2llQj1K6KigI18XpzVfo_Y

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Fundamental Analysis of USD/CAD for December 14, 2018

USD/CAD has been quite non-volatile with the recent bullish gains which is expected to lead the price towards 1.3450 resistance area in the coming days. Despite the softer rhetoric of the US Fed on monetary tightening and downbeat employment reports, USD managed to sustain the bullish momentum over CAD which is expected to turn a bit volatile in the coming days.

The risk of US recession in the next two years has risen to 40%. Besides, the Federal Reserve is going to rvise its agenda and ease a pace of rate hikes for 2019. Yesterday US Import Prices report was published with a decrease to -1.6% from the previous value of 0.5% which was expected to be at -1.0% and Unemployment Claims have been quite positive with a decrease to 206k from the previous figure of 233k which was expected to be at 226k. Today US Core Retail Sales is expected to decrease to 0.2% from the previous value of 0.7% and Retail Sales is expected to decrease to 0.1% from the previous value of 0.8%. Moreover, Industrial Production is expected to increase to 0.3% from the previous value of 0.1% and Business Inventories is also expected to increase to 0.6% from the previous value of 0.3%.

On the other hand, CAD has been quite positive amid Canada's employment reports which did not quite help the currency to gain impulsive counter momentum over USD. This week Canada also posted some reprts with mixed readings. As a result, CAD lost further momentum. Ahead of CPI, GDP and Retail Sales reports to be published next week, CAD is expected to struggle further in the process.

Meanwhile, USD is expected to sustain the bullish momentum further but with certain volatility due to bad fundamentals. Any positive news from Canada can easily support CAD.

Now let us look at the technical view. The price has formed Bearish Divergence for a few weeks which is expected to lead to certain bearish pressure but after the price bounces off the 1.3450 resistance area with a daily close. Non-volatile trend but a strong pullback indicates the weakness of bulls. As the price remains below 1.3500 area with a daily close, there are certain probabilities of a bullish counter-move in the coming days.

SUPPORT: 1.3150, 1.3300

RESISTANCE: 1.3450, 1.3500

BIAS: BULLISH

MOMENTUM: VOLATILE

analytics5c13863ba930f.png

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Technical analysis of USD/CHF for December 14, 2018

analytics5c138627904bb.png

Overview:

The USD/CHF pair continue to trade upwards from the level of 0.9951 on the H4 chart. Today, the first support level is currently seen at 0.9951, the price is moving in a bullish channel now. There are no changes in our technical outlook. The bias remains bullish in the nearest term testing 1.0142 or heigher. Furthermore, the price has been set above the strong support at the level of 0.9951, which coincides with the daily pivot point. This support has been rejected three times confirming the veracity of an uptrend. According to the previous events, we expect the USD/CHF pair to trade between 0.9951 and 1.0058. So, the support stands at 0.9951, while daily resistance is found at 1.0058. Therefore, the market is likely to show signs of a bullish trend around the spot of 1.0058. In other words, buy orders are recommended above the spot of 1.0058/0.9951with the first target at the level of 1.0142; and continue towards 1.0216. However, if the USD/CHF pair fails to break through the resistance level of 1.0058 today, the market will decline further to 0.9863.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Technical analysis of EUR/USD for December 14, 2018

analytics5c1385717835d.png

Overview:

The EUR/USD pair fell from the level of 1.1338 towards 1.1265. Now, the price is set at 1.1330. The resistance is seen at the level of 1.1338 and 1.1390. Moreover, the price area of 1.1390/1.1338 remains a significant resistance zone. Therefore, there is a possibility that the EUR/USD pair will move downside and the structure of a fall does not look corrective. The trend is still below the 100 EMA for that the bearish outlook remains the same as long as the 100 EMA is headed to the downside. Thus, amid the previous events, the price is still moving between the levels of 1.1338 and 1.1253. If the EUR/USD pair fails to break through the resistance level of 1.1338, the market will decline further to 1.1253 as as the first target. This would suggest a bearish market because the RSI indicator is still in a negative spot and does not show any trend-reversal signs. The pair is expected to drop lower towards at least 1.1197 so as to test the daily support 2. On the contrary, if a breakout takes place at the resistance level of 1.1338, then this scenario may become invalidated.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Intraday technical levels and trading recommendations for GBP/USD for December 14, 2018

analytics5c137d9c38ac7.png

Since Mid-November, the GBP/USD pair failed to establish a successful bullish breakout above the price level of 1.2880 (the upper limit of the depicted consolidation range).

On the other hand, two unsuccessful bearish breakout attempts were demonstrated below 1.2720 during last week's consolidations.

During Friday's consolidations, the GBP/USD pair failed to fixate above 1.2780 (79.6% Fibonacci). That's why, a significant decline was demonstrated below 1.2700-1.2660 (Historical bottoms) during this week's consolidations.

The current scenario could pursue as a bearish flag continuation pattern provided that bearish persistence below 1.2660 (corresponding to a prominent daily low) is maintained on daily basis.

Any bullish pullback towards the price zone of 1.2660-1.2700 can be watched for a valid SELL entry as this price zone corresponds to the backside of the broken consolidation range as well as the depicted downtrend on H4 chart.

Projected target for the bearish flag continuation pattern is located around 1.2300. Initial bearish destination is located around 1.2580 while S/L should be set as daily closure above 1.2800.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com