Technical analysis of USD/JPY for July 04, 2017

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Our upside target for USD/JPY which we predicted in yesterday's analysis has been hit. The pair is still expected to trade with a bullish outlook. Although the pair broke below the 20-period moving average, it is still trading above the rising 50-period moving average, which plays a support role. The downside potential should be limited by the key support at 112.80.

Therefore, as long as 112.80 holds on the downside, look for a new rebound to 112.65 and even to 112.92 (the high of June 29) in extension.

Alternatively, if the price moves in the opposite direction as predicted, a short position is recommended below 112.80 with a target at 113.45.

Chart Explanation: The black line shows the pivot point. The current price above the pivot point indicates a bullish position while the price below the pivot point is a sign for a short position. The red lines show the support levels and the green line indicates the resistance level. These levels can be used to enter and exit trades.

Strategy : BUY, Stop Loss: 112.80, Take Profit: 113.45

Resistance levels: 113.45, 113.70, and 114.05

Support levels: 112.40,111.15, and 110.75

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Technical analysis of USD/CHF for July 4, 2017

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Our USD/CHF upside targets have been hit exactly as we predicted. USD/CHF is still expected to trade in the upward direction. The pair is trading above the key support at 0.9615, which should limit the downside potential. The upward momentum is further reinforced by both rising 20-period and 50-period moving averages. The relative strength index is supported by the rising trend line since June 29. Therefore, as long as 0.9615 is not broken, look for a rebound to 0.9685 and even to 0.9710 in extension.

Chart Explanation: The black line shows the pivot point; the present price above pivot point indicates the bullish position and below pivot points indicates the short position. The red lines show the support levels and the green line indicates the resistance levels. These levels can be used to enter and exit trades.

Strategy: BUY, Stop Loss: 0.9615, Take Profit: 0.9685

Resistance levels: 0.9685, 0.9710, and 0.9745

Support levels: 0.9580, 0.9565, and 0.9500

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Technical analysis of GBP/JPY for July 4, 2017

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We will retain our yesterday's prediction that the pair is expected to move upward. The pair is currently testing the support of its 50-period moving average, and remains above the horizontal support at 145.90. The 20-period moving average is still holding above the 50-period moving average, and the relative strength index is around its neutrality area at 50, lacking downward momentum.

As long as 145.90 is not broken down, a further advance is preferred with 146.90 and 147.50 as targets.

Alternatively, if the price moves in the opposite direction as predicted, a short position is recommended below 145.90 with the target at 145.05.

Chart Explanation: the black line shows the pivot point. The price above pivot point indicates the bullish position and when it is below pivot points, it indicates a short position. The red lines show the support levels and the green line indicates the resistance levels. These levels can be used to enter and exit trades.

Strategy: BUY, Stop Loss: 145.90, Take Profit: 146.50.

Resistance levels: 146.90, 147.50, and 148.00

Support levels: 145.05, 144.15, and 143.15

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Technical analysis of NZD/USD for July 4, 2017

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As predicted NZD/USD downside targets have been hit and NZD/USD is expected to continue its downside movement. The pair remains below its key resistance at 0.7305 and is looking for a lower bottom. The 20-period moving average stays below the 50-period moving average, and the relative strength index is around its neutrality area at 50, lacking upward momentum.

As long as the key resistance at 0.7305 is not broken above, the risk of a drop to 0.7240 remains high. Further down leg to 0.7225 is also likely.

Strategy: SELL Stop Loss: 0.7305. Take Profit: 0.7240

Chart Explanation: The black line shows the pivot point. Currently, the price is above the pivot point which indicates the bullish position. If it is below the pivot points, it indicates the short position. The red lines show the support levels and the green line indicates the resistance levels. These levels can be used to enter and exit trades.

Resistance levels: 0.7320, 0.7345, and 0.7370

Support levels: 0.7240, 0.7225, and 0.7200

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Daily analysis of major pairs for July 4, 2017

EUR/USD: The EUR/USD traded lower yesterday, and it has continued doing so today. However, the major bias on the market remains bearish, owing to the strong northwards breakout that was seen last week. There cannot be a change in the bias on the market (to bearish), as long as price does not go below the support line at 1.1200.

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USD/CHF: Since the beginning of this week till now, the USD/CHF has gone upwards by more than 70 pips, against the dominant bearish bias. Price is now above the support level at 0.9650, going towards the resistance level at 0.9700. As soon as the price goes above the resistance level at 0.9800, the bearish bias would be over.

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GBP/USD: Since the beginning of this week, the Cable has been gradually corrected downward. It is possible that the price would continue going upwards this week (owing to the dominant bullish outlook), but the upwards movement would not be much, as a result of a bearish outlook on GBP pairs for this week and for the month of July 2017.

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USD/JPY: The USD/JPY made further bullish movement on Monday, but it is now engaged in a shallow bearish correction, which may turn out to be another good opportunity to go for a short-term bullish signal. There is a Bullish Confirmation Pattern in the 4-hour chart, and a further bullish movement is a possibility (although the outlook on JPY pairs is bearish for this month).

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EUR/JPY: Since Monday till now, the EUR/JPY cross has not done much, though a bullish signal remains in place. Short trades are not currently advised here, owing to a big Bullish Confirmation Pattern in the market. Nonetheless, there would soon be a deep correction in the market – as a result of the bearish outlook on JPY pairs for July – and that is when short trades would make some sense.

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NZD/USD Intraday technical levels and trading recommendations for July 4, 2017

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Daily Outlook

The NZD/USD pair has been trending up within the depicted bullish channel since January 2016.

In November 2016, early signs of bullish weakness were expressed on the chart when the pair failed to record a new high above 0.7400.

A bearish breakout of the lower limit of the channel took place in December 2016.

In February 2017, the depicted short-term downtrend was initiated in the depicted supply zone (0.7310-0.7380).

However, a recent bullish breakout above the downtrend line took place on May 22. Since then, the market has been bullish as depicted on the chart.

The price zone of 0.7150-0.7230 (SUPPLY ZONE in confluence with 61.8% Fibonacci level) stood as a temporary resistance zone until a bullish breakout was expressed above 0.7230.

This resulted in a quick bullish advance towards the next supply zone around 0.7310-0.7380 where evident bearish rejection was expressed on June 14.

Currently, the NZD/USD pair remains trapped between the price levels of 0.7230 - 0.7310 until a breakout occurs in either direction.

Trade recommendations:

Risky traders can have a valid SELL entry at retesting of the price level of 0.7310. S/L should be placed above 0.7400.

Conservative traders can wait for a bearish closure below 0.7230 then 0.7150 (61.8% Fibo level) for a valid SELL position.

S/L should be placed above 0.7250 while T/P levels should be placed at 0.7050, 0.6970, and 0.6850.

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Intraday technical levels and trading recommendations for EUR/USD for July 4, 2017

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Monthly Outlook

In January 2015, the EUR/USD pair moved below the major demand levels near 1.2100 (multiple previous bottoms set in July 2012 and June 2010). Hence, a long-term bearish target is projected toward 0.9450.

In March 2015, EUR/USD bears challenged the monthly demand level around 1.0500, which had been previously reached in August 1997.

In the longer term, the level of 0.9450 remains a projected target if any monthly candlestick achieves bearish closure below the depicted monthly demand level of 1.0500.

Currently, the EUR/USD pair remains trapped within the depicted consolidation range (1.0500-1.1300) until a breakout occurs in either direction.

Any bullish breakout above 1.1300 will probably liberate a quick bullish advance towards 1.1495 and 1.1600.

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Daily Outlook

In January 2017, the previous downtrend reversed when the Head and Shoulders pattern was established around 1.0500. Since then, evident bullish momentum has been expressed on the chart.

The next daily supply level for the EUR/USD pair is located between 1.1400-1.1520 where the price action should be watched for possible bearish rejection.

Recently, the price levels around 1.1280-1.1295 stood as an intraday resistance where recent bearish correction was initiated towards 1.1120.

The evident bullish rejection was expressed around 1.1120 where the current bullish movement towards 1.1400 was initiated.

As anticipated, the ongoing bullish momentum allowed the EUR/USD pair to pursue further advance towards 1.1415 (Daily Supply-Zone) where a valid SELL entry can be offered if enough bearish rejection is maintained.

Early signs of bearish rejection should be expressed by the bears around 1.1400. Otherwise, further bullish advance towards 1.1500 should be expected soon.

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Fundamental Analysis of EUR/JPY for July 4, 2017

EUR/JPY has been very bullish in nature after the break above the 125.80 resistance level last week. Due to the hawkish comment of the ECB President Draghi on his last speech due to global economic boom, EUR is currently quite powerful against JPY. JPY has been suffering a lot recently due to bad economic data which did affected the gain of the JPY against all other currencies in the market. Today JPY Monetary Base report was published with a worse figure at 17.0% which previously was at 19.4% and today it was expected to be at 19.2% but Bank of Japan Core CPI report did somehow met the expectation today at 0.3% which previously was at 0.2%. On the EUR side, today Spanish Unemployment Change was negative at -98.3k from the previous value of -111.9k which was expected to increase to -120.3k. Although the report is considered as a lagging indicator of the economy but the number of unemployed people is an important signal of the economic health because consumer spending is highly correlated with labor-market conditions, so as a result the negative result of the report is expected to make EUR much weaker in the coming days. Along with it, today EUR PPI report was also published which also showed negative result at -0.4% which was expected to be at -0.2% from the previous value of 0.0%. Today EUR is quite weaker in comparison to JPY by considering the economic reports and as one of the leading economic indicator of EUR has come out negative, JPY is expected to gain currently against EUR on the short-term basis.

Now let us look at the technical view, the price has shown a good amount of impulsive bullish movement after breaking above the 125.80 resistance level and way above the dynamic level of 20 EMA which signals upcoming retracement in this pair. Currently, the price is expected to move down to 20 EMA or support level of 125.80 before price proceeds its move further upward with a target towards 132.20 resistance level. The bullish bias will continue further until price breaks below 125.80 with a daily close.

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GBP/USD analysis for July 04, 2017

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Recently, the GBP/USD has been trading downwards. The price tested the level of 1.2915. Anyway, according to the 30M time frame, I found potentially hidden buying activity. There is a fake breakout of yesterday's low at the price of 1.2930. My advice is to watch for potential buying opportunities. The upward targets are set at the price of 1.2930, 1.2975 and 1.3015.

Resistance levels:

R1: 1.3000

R2: 1.3057

R3: 1.3090

Support levels:

S1: 1.2915

S2: 1.2880

S3: 1.2825

Trading recommendations for today: watch for potential buying opportunities.

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Fundamental Analysis of GBPUSD for July 4, 2017

GBP/USD has been impulsively bullish recently before the price reached the resistance area of 1.30 on Friday. As of the recent bad economic reports, GBP has been quite weaker against USD this week and expected to remain weak for some period. BOE Gov. Carney is quite hawkish about the Pound future and hinted rate hike in his last speech. Carney believes Pound is going to get back its strength very soon and Brexit effect is fading away slowly. Yesterday GBP ISM Manufacturing PMI report was worse than expected at 54.3 which was expected to be at 56.4 and this report did help the USD to gain some momentum against GBP recently. Today GBP Construction PMI report was published which also failed to show any rise from the previous value of 56.0, it was published with 54.8 which was expected to be at 55.0. On the USD side, today all US banks and financial institutions are closed due to the observance of Independence Day which means other currencies against USD has the advantage to gain over USD today. To sum up, GBP is currently struggling to keep the gains constant today despite the holiday observed in the USA, it is expected that USD is going to gain much further against GBP in the coming days.

Now let us look at the technical view, the price has already rejected the bulls in this market after the worse Construction PMI report published today. Currently, USD is quite stronger in comparison to GBP despite the holiday observed which clearly signifies USD is more powerful than GBP currently. Price is currently above the support area of 1.2750-1.2800 and as the price remains above this level and 20 EMA the bullish bias is expected to continue with a target towards 1.3370 resistance level but for few upcoming days further bearish pressure in this pair expected to take the price down to 1.2750-1.2800 support area. If the price breaks below 1.2750 with a daily close then our bias will change to bearish with a target towards 1.2550.

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Analysis of Gold for July 04, 2017

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Recently, the Gold has been trading downwards. The price tested the level of $1,218.48. Anyway, according to the 30M time frame, I found potentially hidden buying activity. There is a hidden bullish divergence on the Moving Average Oscillator and there is a strong Relative Strength. My advice is to watch for a potential buying opportunity. I placed Fibonacci retracement to find potential upward targets. I got FR 38.2% at the price of $1,22770, FR 50% at the price of $1,230.50 and FR 61.8% at the price of $1,233.00.

Resistance levels:

R1: $1,238.20

R2: $1,252.00

R3: $1,262.00

Support levels:

S1: $1,214.00

S2: $1,205.00

S3: $1,191.20

Trading recommendations for today: watch for potential buying opportunities.

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Global macro overview for 04/07/2017

Global macro overview for 04/07/2017:

The US ISM Manufacturing Index for June surges to the highest level since August 2014. The index rose from 54.9 points to 57.8 points in June and it was well above the market consensus of 55.0 points. The sub-indices also provided a good bunch of optimistic data. The Orders Index increased from 59.5 points to 63.5 points while production rose from 57.1 points to 63.2 points. Moreover, there was a significant increase in order backlogs which should provide support for production over the next few months.The Employment Index registered 57.2 points, an increase of 3.7 points from the May reading of 53.5 points. The Prices Index registered 55 points in June, a decrease of 5.5 points from the May reading of 60.5 points indicating higher raw materials' prices for the 16th consecutive month. Overall, out of 18 manufacturing industries, 15 reported growth in June.

The overall ISM data for the last month does not suggest that manufacturing is a significant barrier to further normalization by the Federal Reserve and there is flicky evidence that the US economy has recovered from a soft patch during the second quarter.To confirm this scenario more data will be needed and Fed policymakers might choose the wait-and-see approach to the end of the year in order to justify the next interest rate hike in December 2017. Nevertheless, as long as the domestic economy is performing relatively well, the employment is high and the unemployment rate is low, the next interest rate is still on the table.

Let's now take a look at the EUR/USD technical picture at the H4 timeframe. The market is turning down from the overbought trading conditions, but the momentum indicator is still above the fifty level. The next technical support is seen at the level of 1.1295 - 1.1283 and only a sustained breakout below this level would put the bears in control over this market.

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Technical analysis of EUR/USD for July 03, 2017

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Technical analysis of EUR/USD for July 03, 2017

USD/CHF testing major resistance, prepare to sell

The price is now testing major resistance at 0.9645 (Fibonacci retracement, horizontal overlap resistance) and we expect a strong reaction from this level for a drop towards 0.9552 support (Fibonacci extension, horizontal swing low support).

Stochastic (34,5,3) is testing major resistance at 97% where we expect a drop from.

Sell below 0.9645. Stop loss at 0.9677. Take profit at 0.9552.

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USD/JPY testing major resistance, remain bearish

The price has reached our profit target from last week and is now testing major resistance. We remain bearish looking to sell at the major resistance of 113.06 (Fibonacci retracement, Fibonacci extension, horizontal pullback resistance) and expect a drop towards at least 110.97 support (Fibonacci retracement, horizontal swing low support).

Traders Dynamic Index is starting to cross below its signal line in bearish territory, signaling that a drop is impending.

Stochastic (34,5,3) is seeing major resistance below 95% where we expect a drop from.

Sell below 113.06. Stop loss at 113.96. Take profit at 110.97.

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Global macro overview for 04/07/2017

Global macro overview for 04/07/2017:

The Reserve Bank of Australia decided to leave the interest rates unchanged at the level of 1.5%, where it has stood since August 2016. In the Rate Statement, the RBA said, that inflation has declined recently due to lower oil prices and consumer inflation had moved higher over the past year. The RBA also said that the slowdown in first-quarter growth was temporary.

Contrary to the market's deceleration of decisive tightening, the monetary authorities have kept a cautious approach (inflation will gradually increase, wage growth will remain low) while simultaneously hitting currency strength. Nevertheless, Australia's economy was among the most vulnerable to rate increases given the nation's surging household debt and rising home values. Even a 1 point increase in the official cash rate would have negative consequences on the economy, and that's assuming annual growth of 3% with inflation at 2.5% ( home prices alone could slide 13%). This is why the next interest rate hikes are not very probable this year and with the current RBA inflation expectations, only a few interest rate hikes can be expected in 2018.

Let's now take a look at the AUD/USD technical picture at the H4 timeframe. The pair declined around 50 pips after the RBA decision, but it is worth to notice AUD/.USD climbed to fresh three-month highs last week. the market conditions are overbought and the next technical support is seen at the level of 0.7568 and 0.7533.

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Pound: Short Music Played

Corrections for EUR/USD and GBP/USD indicates that investors have gone too far, buying euros and pound amid the "hawkish" comments of Mario Draghi and Mark Carney. After a few days, the BoE chief surprised the market with a "dovish" rhetoric as it signaled hiking interest rates. The condition of employment in the British economy, which is at full capacity, will be discussed at the next MPC meetings. As a result, the GBP/USD pair marked its best result since April, when Theresa May announced the general election and started to move near the psychologically important 1.3 level. Unfortunately, for the "bulls" the music did not last long.

According to the Office for National Statistics, the population of Albion faced the longest decline in purchasing power since the 1970s against the backdrop of the devaluation of sterling and rising consumer prices. This fact contrast with the likelihood of raising the interest rate in 2017 near a six-week high and at the same it causes people to participate in strikes. It is significant that one of them occurred inside the Bank of England, which last took place more than half a century ago. Over the past year, the salary of BoE employees has increased by only 1%, to which against the backdrop of the CPI accelerating to 2.9%, leads to a collapse in purchasing power.

The dynamics of inflation in Britain

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Source: Financial Times.

In such a situation, talking about tightening monetary and credit policy would be like pushing the economy towards a recession.

Thus, the BoE's intentions are clear , however, before taking decisions, the regulators must see improvements in the economy of Albion.

Technically, the GBP / USD is at a crossroads and on what exactly the pair chooses will have to depend on its medium-term prospects.

GBP / USD, daily chart

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Ichimoku indicator analysis of USDX for July 4, 2017

The Dollar index is bouncing as expected. The price is now making the minimum bounce requirements towards short-term resistance and previous support at 96.50. Overall I expect a bigger Dollar index bounce towards 98.

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Red line - resistance

Blue lines - bearish channel

The Dollar Index is testing short-term resistance at 96.50 where we also find the 4-hour tenkan- and kijun-sen indicators. Oscillators bounce off oversold levels. I expect this bounce to continue higher.

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Blue lines - bearish channel

On a weekly basis, although the trend is bearish and the price is below the weekly Kumo (cloud), I expect a short-term bounce for a week or two towards 98-98.50. The RSI is diverging and oversold. I expect at least a move towards the lower Kumo boundary.

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Ichimoku indicator analysis of gold for July 4, 2017

Gold price remains in a bearish trend making new lows below $1,235 area towards $1,220. The precious metal is getting even more oversold and I believe we will soon have an opportunity to see a very important low and reversal.

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Blue lines - bearish channel

Gold price is below both the tenkan- and kijun-sen. Price is also bouncing off the bearish blue channel and we could at least see a bounce towards the 4 hour Kumo (cloud) and the upper channel boundary near $1,240-45.

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Black line - long-term resistance

Blue line - long-term support

The gold weekly candle is testing the weekly Kumo. This is very important support. If price breaks below the cloud we could see a move even lower towards the blue long-term support trend line near $1,170.

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Trading plan for 04/07/2017

Trading plan for 04/07/2017:

Holiday in the US certainly does not favor volatility. The Asian indices are under the dash, the commodity market modestly adjusted yesterday's sharp fluctuations: gold will barely rise, and crude WTI cheaper. Only the AUD/USD moved about 50pips after the Reserve Bank of Australia interest rate decision (no change).

On Tuesday 4th of July, the economic calendar is very light in important news release due to Independence Day holiday in the US. Nevertheless, the global investors will pay attention to PMI Construction data from the UK, Producer Price Index from the Eurozone and PMI Manufacturing data from Canada.

GBP/USD analysis for 04/07/2017:

The PMI Construction data are scheduled for release at 08:30 am GMT and the market participants expect a slide in construction from 56.0 points to 55.2 points in the reported month. Despite the expected slide, the PMI Construction index remains above the fifty level since October 2016, so the construction sector of the British economy is still expanding, albeit at a slower pace. Purchasing managers usually have early access to data about their company's performance, which can be a leading indicator of overall economic performance. So far the Uk economy is functioning quite well in the post-Brexit environment, just ahead of the negotiations with the Eurozone.The situation is so good, that even the Bank of England Governor Mark Carney decided to change his rhetoric regarding the interest rate hikes and monetary policy at the recent Central Banks Summit in Portugal, saying there may be a need to limit the monetary stimulation of the British economy if the trade-off facing the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) continues to lessen. In these circumstances, the policy decision would become more conventional. In conclusion, any data better than expected from the UK economy will make the rate hike more probable event this year, which in result make the British Pound stronger across the board.

Let's now take a look at the GBP/USD technical picture at the H4 timeframe. The price bounced from the technical support at the level of 1.2918 in overbought trading conditions and currently is heading towards the technical resistance at the level of 1.2978. This is the possible range for this pair for today as the volatility might be highly limited due to the US holiday.

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Market Snapshot: Crude Oil at 50% Fibo resistance

The price of Crude Oil has managed to hit the 50% Fibo at the level of $47.02 and now the market is consolidating the gains. The market conditions at the H4 timeframe looks overbought and there is a visible bearish divergence between the price and momentum indicator. This would suggest a more sideways price action with a possible test of the intraday support at the level of $46.40.

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Market Snapshot: GBP/JPY turning south

After making a local high at the level of 147.11, the price of GBP/JPY is now turning lower as the market conditions are now overbought. Moreover, there is a visible bearish divergence between the price and momentum indicator, so the next intraday support at the level of 145.09 might be tested soon.

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Elliott wave analysis of EUR/NZD for July 4, 2017

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Wave summary:

The break above minor resistance at 1.5639 indicates that red wave ii completed already at 1.5503 and red wave iii towards at least 1.6232 now is developing.

Short-term, we would like to see a firm break above minor resistance at 1.5712 as confirmation that red wave ii indeed has completed and red wave iii is developing.

R3: 1.5931

R2: 1.5801

R1: 1.5712

Pivot: 1.5650

S1: 1.5566

S2: 1.5500

S3: 1.5450

Trading recommendation:

We are long EUR from 1.5645 with stop placed at 1.5210. Upon a break above 1.5712 our stop will be moved higher to 1.5450.

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Elliott wave analysis of EUR/JPY for July 4, 2017

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Wave summary:

Even though a new high has been seen at 128.89 our preferred count shows that wave iv is still unfolding as an expanded flat correction. This count calls for one more dip to the downside closer to 126.87 before wave iv completes and the next impulsive rally in wave v can take over for a rally towards at least 130.27.

R3: 130,17

R2: 129.36

R1: 128.89

Pivot: 128.50

S1: 128.28

S2: 127.82

S3: 126.87

Trading recommendation:

We will take profit here at 128.46 for a nice profit of 400 pips. We will re-buy EUR at 127.00.

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Technical analysis of EUR/USD for July 04, 2017

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When the European market opens, some Economic Data will be released, such as PPI m/m and Spanish Unemployment Change. Today, the US will not release any Economic Data, so, amid the reports, EUR/USD will move in a low to medium volatility during this day.

TODAY'S TECHNICAL LEVEL:

Breakout BUY Level: 1.1427.

Strong Resistance:1.1420.

Original Resistance: 1.1409.

Inner Sell Area: 1.1398.

Target Inner Area: 1.1371.

Inner Buy Area: 1.1344.

Original Support: 1.1333.

Strong Support: 1.1322.

Breakout SELL Level: 1.1315.

Disclaimer: Trading Forex (foreign exchange) on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Technical analysis of USD/JPY for July 04, 2017

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In Asia, Japan will release the BOJ Core CPI y/y, 10-y Bond Auction, and Monetary Base y/y data, and today the US will not release any Economic Data. So, there is a probability the USD/JPY will move with low to medium volatility during this day.

TODAY'S TECHNICAL LEVEL:

Resistance. 3: 113.78.

Resistance. 2: 113.55.

Resistance. 1: 113.33.

Support. 1: 113.06.

Support. 2: 112.83.

Support. 3: 112.61.

Disclaimer: Trading Forex (foreign exchange) on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.

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Will USD/CHF drop from here? | Daily Forex Analysis | 4th July 2017

Are we going to see a huge drop on USD/CHF today? We take a good look through our technical analysis lenses to find out!

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Technical analysis of NZD/USD for July 04, 2017

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Overview:

  • The NZD/USD pair hadn't made any significant movements since last week. The NZD/USD pair is still trading around the spot of 0.7250 and 0.7343. Thus, it should be noted that the support is established at the level of 0.7205 which represents the daily pivot point. The NZD/USD pair is showing signs of force following a breakout of the highest price of 0.7205. The price was in a bullish channel since two days. This is confirmed by the RSI indicator signaling that we are still in a bullish trending market. The NZD/USD pair continues to move upwards from the level of 0.7205. As long as the trend is above the price of 0.7205, the market is still in an uptrend.
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  • The trend is still strong above the moving average. The NZD/USD pair didn't make any significant movements last two days. The market is indicating a bullish opportunity above the mentioned support levels. The bullish outlook remains valid as long as the 100 EMA heads for the upside. Therefore, strong support will be found around the spot of 0.7159-0.7205 providing a clear signal to buy with a target seen at 0.7250. If the trend breaks the first resistance at 0.7250, the pair will move upwards continuing the bullish trend development to the level of 0.7305 in order to test the daily resistance 2. It should be noted that the major resistance is seen at the levels of 0.7344 and 0.7400. Nevertheless, the stop loss should be placed at the price of 0.7200.
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Technical analysis of USD/CHF for July 04, 2017

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Overview:

  • The current price of USD/CHF pair is moving around the area of 0.9660 and 0.9590. The USD/CHF pair continues moving downwards from the level of 0.9645. Yesterday, the pair dropped from the level of 0.9645 to move around the spot of 0.9645 - 0.9600. Today, the first resistance level is seen at 0.9660 followed by 0.97100, while daily support 1 is seen at 0.9590. According to the previous events, the USD/CHF pair is still moving between the levels of 0.9590 and 0.9500 If the USD/CHF pair fails to break through the resistance level of 0.9660, the market will decline further to 0.9590 today. This would suggest a bearish market because the RSI indicator is still in a positive area and does not show any trend reversal signs. On the other hand, if a breakout takes place at the resistance level of 0.9710, then this scenario may become invalidated. Also, it should be noticed that the price is still trading around the spot of 0.9660.
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Daily analysis of USDX for July 04, 2017

Following positive data of ISM PMI in the United States, the index is looking to break above 96.24 in order to consolidate its price action above the 200 SMA at H1 chart. However, as the trading volume comes back later today, the greenback may start to pull back towards 96.77, which is our first target to the downside.

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H1 chart's resistance levels: 96.77 / 97.20

H1 chart's support levels: 96.38 / 95.77

Trading recommendations for today: Based on the H1 chart, place sell (short) orders only if the USD Index breaks with a bearish candlestick; the support level is at 95.77, take profit is at 95.10 and stop loss is at 96.42.

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Daily analysis of GBP/USD for July 04, 2017

The pair had a bearish session during Monday, despite thin volatility seen during U.S. session. If we witness a breakout below 1.2923, one would expect a continuation towards 1.2756 in a first degree, but we cannot forget that the 200 SMA at H1 chart could provide dynamic support. MACD indicator remains in the negative territory, supporting the current bias.

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H1 chart's resistance levels: 1.3011 / 1.3105

H1 chart's support levels: 1.2923 / 1.2756

Trading recommendations for today: Based on the H1 chart, buy (long) orders only if the GBP/USD pair breaks a bullish candlestick; the resistance level is at 1.3011, take profit is at 1.3105 and stop loss is at 1.2918.

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USD/CAD is right on major support, time to buy

Price is now testing major support at 1.2966 (multiple Fibonacci extensions, horizontal swing low support, Elliott wave theory) and we expect a bounce above this level to at least 1.3164 resistance (Fibonacci retracement, horizontal pullback resistance).

Stochastic (34,5,3) is seeing major support above 1% where we expect a bounce from.

Traders Dynamic Index is crossing nicely above our signal line (red) and our channel (blue) signalling that a bounce is impending.

Buy above 1.2966. Set stop loss at 1.2893 and take profit at 1.3164.

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GBP/USD profit target reached, prepare to sell again

The GBP/USD pair shot down towards our profit target before bouncing up once again. We now prepare to sell as price is approaching major resistance at 1.3044 (Fibonacci extension, horizontal swing high resistance) and we expect a major reaction from this level for a drop to at least 1.2935 (Fibonacci retracement, Elliott wave theory) which needs to be broken to confirm a major drop.

Stochastic (34,5,3) is testing 96% resistance and the price is definitely in strongly overbought territory.

Sell below 1.3044. Set stop loss at 1.3081 and take profit at 1.2935.

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NZD/USD testing major resistance, prepare for a drop

Price is now testing major resistance at 0.7344 (Fibonacci extension, horizontal swing high resistance) and we expect a drop from here towards at least 0.7301 support (Fibonacci retracement, horizontal pullback support).

Stochastic (34,5,3) is seeing major resistance at 95% and we expect a strong reaction below that level.

Correlation analysis: AUDUSD and NZDUSD are both strongly positively correlated as seen in the histogram. Both are expecting drops for today too, and it is always better when they are moving in tandem.

Sell below 0.7344. Set stop loss at 0.7356 and take profit at 0.7301.

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