Gold "probes the soil" and gradually becomes more expensive

On Wednesday, February 13, gold prices continue to rise gradually just like the day. Experts believe that this was driven because of the euphoria in global stock markets due to optimistic expectations on the US-China trade negotiations. Quotes of the yellow metal hold at $1,300 but can not overcome the $1,315 mark in more than a week, analysts say.

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Last week, the gold market sagged twice to the level of $1,306 per troy ounce, where a correction occurred later. Based on the calculations of analysts, the recovery of the price of gold to the level of $1,330 is impossible unless the support level of $1,299 is overcome. The yellow metal will continue to consolidate in the range of $1,250 to $1,360 per troy ounce and its future price will go up. Fixing above the level of $1360 will lead to a rapid increase in the value of gold to $1,520 and possibly in a few months to $1,690 per troy ounce, experts say.

Recently, a sharp increase in the volume of gold bought higher by central banks of developing countries was recorded on the market of precious metals. Experts explain this by increasing geopolitical tensions and increasing risks of "freezing" assets in the United States and Europe. As a result, government emerging markets are invested in safe assets, which include gold and other precious metals.

The current trend of the yellow metal price demonstrates that some investors are cautious and are not in a hurry to get rid of defensive assets in case of another shutdown by the US authorities or regression in the US-China trade negotiations. According to analysts, gold will continue to consolidate in the short term. They are confident that the likelihood of a price falling below $1,300 at this stage is low, but the prerequisites for overcoming the mark of $1,315 are also not observed.

Analyzing the current situation on the gold market, experts mentioned further strengthening of the yellow metal. On their estimates, the moderately "bullish" medium-term outlook for gold will worsen in the case of negative economic statistics, especially from China and Europe.

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EUR / USD plan for the US session on February 13. Industrial production data put pressure on the euro

To open long positions on EUR / USD pair, you need:

Weak data on industrial production put pressure on the euro in the first half of the day but buyers are still holding the pair above the support of 1.1315, to which I paid attention. While trading is conducted above this range, the demand for the euro will remain but the main goal of the buyers is to update the maximum around the level of 1.1351. A consolidation above here will lead to a new upward trend in the area of 1.1386, where I recommend fixing profits. In the case of a decline below the level of 1.1315, you can consider long positions at a rebound from the low of 1.1289, where the bulls will try to build the lower limit of the new upward price channel.

To open short positions on EUR / USD pair, you need:

Bears showed themselves in the morning but now requires a breakthrough and consolidation below the support of 1.1315. Only in such a scenario, we can expect a further decline of EUR/USD to the area of 1.1289 minimum, where I recommend taking profits. If the euro rises in the afternoon after the release of weak data on inflation in the US, you can consider short positions from 1.1351 or sell the euro major pair for a rebound from the maximum of 1.1386.

More details in the video forecast for February 13

Indicator signals:

Moving averages

Trade is conducted above the 30- and 50-medium moving, which indicates a possible continuation of the upward correction in the euro.

Bollinger bands

The volatility of the Bollinger Bands indicator falls, which does not give signals to enter the market. However, a breakthrough on the upper border around the area of 1.1344 may lead to a larger growth of the European currency.

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Description of indicators

MA (moving average) 50 days - yellow

MA (moving average) 30 days - green

MACD: fast EMA 12, slow EMA 26, SMA 9

Bollinger Bands 20

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In the medium term, the position of the dollar may falter - Citi

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Citigroup financial conglomerate experts believe that over the next three months, the dollar will be relatively stable, and then decline by 3-4%.

"Fundamental factors that support the demand for the American currency are weakening. The positive impact that financial incentives have on the US economy is likely to fade away. In addition, it is possible that long-term rates have already reached their peak," analysts said.

They believe that the yield curve of US state bonds will become more and more flat, which is why the greenback will be under pressure.

"It is assumed that in the medium term, the reduction of the yield differentials and the difference in the rates of the Fed and other central banks will start to play against the dollar. According to our estimates, over the next three months, the dollar exchange rate in relation to G10 competitors will remain almost unchanged, and in the next 6-12 months, it will fall by 3-4%," representatives of Citi said.

At the same time, they admit that in case of a sharp decline in risk appetite, the US currency is likely to regain the status of a defensive asset, which will support its course.

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Dollar took a little breather but the rally is likely to continue

The recent rally of the dollar has stopped as optimism regarding the course of trade negotiations between the US and China has stimulated demand for more risky currencies. The trade dispute between the two largest economies in the world has put pressure on world markets since the middle of 2018 and any signs of real detente tend to improve sentiment. US President Donald Trump said he could "move a little" the deadline for the ultimatum for China if both parties were close to a deal. This news together with the agreement that prevented another partial closure of the US government has caused a sharp rise in stock markets and supported more risky currencies. Today, market participants do not want to buy a dollar but want to take risks.

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In this case, the euro/dollar situation looks different. The Fundamental decline in the economic outlook in both the US and the Eurozone brings uncertainty that can support the growth of the dollar. There is ample evidence that global growth is slowing and one may be suspicious of the end of the US-China trade war. All of which speaks in favor of the American currency.

In this case, the euro/dollar situation looks different. The Fundamental decline in the economic outlook in both the US and the Eurozone brings uncertainty that can support the growth of the dollar. There is ample evidence that global growth is slowing and one may be suspicious of the end of the US-China trade war. All of which speaks in favor of the American currency.

The New Zealand dollar showed excellent results during Wednesday trading, adding more than 1.5% after the release of less significant than the expected statement of the Central Bank. On the other hand, the Australian dollar, which is a barometer of risky assets, added 0.3 percent to 0.7120 dollar.

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GBP / USD: plan for the American session on February 13. UK inflation continues to decline

To open long positions on GBP / USD, you need:

Weak inflation data in the UK led to a decrease in the pound in the first half of the day. However, while trading is conducted in the support area of 1.2876, there is a likelihood of a return to the buyers market, which will lead to a test and a breakthrough of the maximum of 1.2912. Only after that, we can safely count on the continuation of the upward correction in the area of 1.2972 and 1.3047, where I recommend fixing the profits. In the event of a further decline in the pound, support will be at least this week's 1.2837.

To open short positions on GBP / USD, you need:

Only a good report on inflation in the United States will be able to help the bears break through the support level of 1.2876, consolidating under which will resume pressure on the pound, which will lead to a further fall, reaching 1.2837 and 1.2782 lows, where I recommend fixing the profits. If the data turns out to be much worse than economists' forecasts, the demand for the pound will return. In this scenario, it is best to rely on sales after the update of the maximum around 1.2972.

Indicator signals:

Moving Averages

Trade is conducted in the area of 30-day and 50-day moving, which indicates the formation of the lateral nature of the market.

Bollinger bands

Bollinger Bands indicator volatility is very low, which does not give signals on market entry.

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Description of indicators

  • MA (moving average) 50 days - yellow
  • MA (moving average) 30 days - green
  • MACD: fast EMA 12, slow EMA 26, SMA 9
  • Bollinger Bands 20
The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Oil price forecasts depend on global GDP

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According to experts, most of the forecasts for black gold prices change following the dynamics of global GDP. Experts believe that oil prices are largely determined by demand and not supply.

According to the observations of analysts at Bloomberg, there is a relationship between the forecasts of experts on the cost of WTI Texas oil and predictions about the growth of global GDP. According to analysts, the "first fiddle" in the black gold market is demand, and supply is on the sidelines.

Since October 2017, economists' expectations for global economic growth have steadily increased. Following them, WTI oil price forecasts became more positive. However, since July of last year, scenarios for the further dynamics of global GDP showed a decline, and since November 2018, the forecast for prices for WTI has worsened by about 16%. The deterioration occurred against the backdrop of the OPEC + agreement on the reduction of oil production by 1.2 million barrels per day. In early 2019, estimates of global GDP growth were revised downwards - from the previous 3.7% to 3.4%.

On Tuesday, February 12, the price of Brent crude rose 1.9% to $ 62.67 a barrel. The black gold market has received support against the background of news on the efforts of OPEC + to reduce production volumes. At the same time, the current US sanctions against Iran and Venezuela continue to limit the supply of raw materials on the world market.

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Reducing tension stimulates the demand for risky assets

Stock indices continue to grow steadily against the background of two positive news that noticeably reduced tensions — reaching agreement between Republicans and Democrats in Congress, virtually eliminating the new government shutdown, and the willingness of negotiators on a trade agreement between the US and China to find a solution before March 1, when the 90-day delay in the entry into force of new import tariffs will be completed.

The agreement has not yet been signed by Trump, but there is still time before Friday, and the markets assume that the remaining small differences will be settled.

The S & P 500 index closed at a two-month high of 2744.73, the Shanghai Composite grew even more impressive, to 2718, which is the best result since October. Growth has accelerated amid reports that Trump is ready to move the conclusion of the trade agreement in order to find time for a personal meeting with Chairman Xi. This statement is regarded by the markets as a factor indicating a high degree of likelihood of a compromise.

The US small business sentiment indicator fell by 3.2p in January to a two-year low, actually returning to the level before the 2016 elections. The share of companies expecting improvement in the next 6 months decreased by 6%, and this is the minimum since October 2016, the uncertainty sub-index is near record marks for 45 years, the merit is almost entirely on the conscience of Congress, which created the conditions for stopping the work of the government.

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Such a result cannot be described as a collapse, as the business still relies on high demand and, accordingly, continues to maintain a high level of capital expenditures, however, the reversal seems to have already occurred.

Meanwhile, the US national debt exceeded 22 trillion, it took only 11 months to add a trillion to the previous record. Partially, the record growth is explained by the decrease in tax revenues due to the launch of the reform program, partly due to the growth of budget expenditures on military and social needs, but the fact remains that the growth rates of public debt substantially outpace the growth rates of the economy.

In general, the situation is in favor of a gradual reduction of tension, which encourages players to switch to risky assets. The trend will lead to a decrease in demand for the dollar, euro, and bonds, the weakening of the dollar with a decrease in risk will contribute to higher prices for raw materials, primarily oil, and for gold.

EURUSD

The head of the Bundesbank, Jens Weidmann, said on Tuesday that the economic downturn was dragging on more than expected, but we need to stick to the medium-term inflation forecast. Markets interpreted Weidmann's comment as an indication of the ECB's position - to observe without interfering, which is quite convenient for the bulls, ready to resume purchases.

The decrease in demand for the dollar gives the euro a chance to regain some of the losses, today a slight increase is likely, the immediate goal is the resistance zone of 1.1373 / 78.

GBPUSD

The head of the Bank of England Mark Carney, speaking at a press conference organized by the Financial Times, said that Britain's withdrawal from the EU without a full-fledged agreement would have serious negative consequences for the British economy. One of the main alarming factors Carney called a noticeable decrease in capital expenditures of companies after the referendum, repeating one of the key concerns of the last quarterly report on inflation.

The pound will not be able to return to the growth trajectory without clarity by agreement. Today, trade is more likely in the side range. The local minimum reached yesterday at 1.2830 is unlikely to be updated today, a bit more likely to move to the upper limit of the 1.2995 range.

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February 13, 2019 : GBP/USD is demonstrating bullish weakness around the backside of the broken trend.

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On December 12, the previously-dominating bearish momentum came to an end when the GBP/USD pair visited the price levels of 1.2500 where the backside of the broken daily uptrend was located.

Since then, the current bullish swing has been taking place until January 28 when the GBP/USD pair was almost approaching the supply level of 1.3240.

That's when the current bearish pullback was initiated around slightly lower price levels near 1.3215 (around the depicted supply levels in RED).

This was followed by a bearish engulfing daily candlestick on January 29. Thus, the GBP/USD pair lost its bullish persistence above 1.3155 as a result.

As expected, the recent bearish decline below 1.3150 brought the GBP/USD pair into a deeper bearish correction towards 1.2920-1.2950 where (38.2% Fibonacci level) as well as the backside of the depicted broken trend are located (in RED).

However, lack of bullish demand was recently being demonstrated on recent daily candlesticks. Hence, the short-term scenario turned bearish towards 1.2800 where bullish recovery was expected to be demonstrated.

For the bullish side to regain dominance, bullish breakout above 1.2920 (38.2% Fibonacci) should be re-established early.

Trade Recommendations:

Buyers around 1.2825-1.2800 should advance their Stop loss at entry level. T/P levels to be located at 1.2890 and 1.3040.

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Intraday technical levels and trading recommendations for EUR/USD for February 13, 2019

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Since June 2018, the EUR/USD pair has been moving sideways with slight bearish tendency within the depicted bearish Channel (In RED).

On November 13, the EUR/USD pair demonstrated recent bullish recovery around 1.1220-1.1250 where the current bullish movement above the depicted short-term bullish channel (In BLUE) was initiated.

Bullish fixation above 1.1430 was needed to enhance further bullish movement towards 1.1520. However, the market has been demonstrating obvious bearish rejection around 1.1430 few times so far.

The EUR/USD pair has lost its bullish momentum since January 31 when a bearish engulfing candlestick was demonstrated around 1.1514 where another descending high was established then.

On February 5, a bearish daily candlestick closure below 1.1420 terminated the recent bullish recovery.

This allowed the current bearish movement to occur towards 1.1300-1.1270 where the lower limit of the depicted DAILY channel comes to meet the pair.

On the other hand, a bearish flag pattern may be confirmed if bearish persistence below 1.1250 is achieved on the daily-chart. Pattern target is projected down towards 1.1000.

Trade Recommendations:

Intraday traders can look for a counter-trend BUY entry around the current price levels (1.1285) (lower limit of the depicted movement channel).

S/L to be located below 1.1240 while T/P level to be located around 1.1350 and 1.1420.

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GBP / USD: Hope for a "soft" Brexit is still warming up

On the eve of trading the GBP/USD pair, it was able to rebound from a 3-week low against the background of the release of positive news on Brexit. Today, sterling trades against the dollar near the $1.29 mark.

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According to experts, the dynamics of the sterling rate indicates that investors still hope that the uncontrolled withdrawal of the United Kingdom from the European Union will be avoided.

British Prime Minister Theresa May said during a speech yesterday in the House of Commons that she needed more time to negotiate with the EU on Brexit, as reported by Reuters.

"If an agreement with Brussels is not reached before February 26, members of parliament will be able to vote on options to resolve the situation on February 27. Negotiations are at a critical stage. Now we all need to remain calm in order to achieve the changes requested by the House of Commons and to conduct Brexit on time", May said.

It is not excluded that parliamentarians can support the deal promoted by the head of government if the agreement on the so-called "bet stop" will be temporary. In particular, representatives of the Labor Party led by Jeremy Corbyn are inclined to believe this.

If the belief that the British parliament will not allow an unregulated Brexit, it will only strengthen the possibility of repeating the sharp rise in GBP/USD pair. In this case, purchases of the British currency on the breakout of the resistance levels at 1.295 and 1.3 will become relevant.

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EURUSD: Trump is waiting for progress in negotiations with China and the wall on the border with Mexico. Euro gains growth

The long-awaited upward correction of the European currency began yesterday and may continue today. This will happen in the event of weak US inflation data, which once again will convince investors of the correct decision of the Federal Reserve System to slow down the increase in interest rates this year.

During yesterday's speech, Fed Chairman Jerome Powell said that the incoming data suggest that the US economy is in good shape, but the fiscal policy is superior in its capabilities to monetary policy. This is a confirmation that in the first half of this year, the Fed will not change its policy.

A speech by US President Donald Trump yesterday dealt with trade negotiations with China, as well as an agreement on financing border security.

Trump said that the US and the Chinese side want to conclude a new trade agreement, and tariff increases for Chinese imports on March 1 may not occur if the parties are close to a trade agreement.

Regarding the problem with the wall on the border of Mexico, the US president expressed dissatisfaction with the new agreement on the financing of border security, which was recently reached in Congress. At the same time, Trump said that he does not expect a repetition of the suspension of the government's work, and expects that a wall on the border with Mexico will be built.

As for yesterday's fundamental statistics, it did not greatly help the American dollar, since it was generally negative in nature.

According to the report, due to the recent partial suspension of government operations, the expectations of small business owners have declined. It is worth noting that the deterioration of sentiment in the field of small business has been observed for several months in a row.

According to the National Federation of Independent Business NFIB, the optimism index in January 2019 fell to 101.2 points against 104.4 points in December. Economists had expected the index to be 102 points in January. Despite this, the federation noted that small business is still very active, but many small business owners have less confidence in their future.

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The number of vacancies in the US increased in December. According to a report by the US Department of Labor, the number of vacancies as of the last working day of December was 7.34 million, while at the end of November, the number of vacancies was 7.17 million. Such data indicate a lack of supply in the labor market. Let me remind you that in December 2018, unemployment in the United States was 3.9%, while in January it rose to 4%.

After the Eurogroup meeting, the current President of the Bundesbank, Jens Weidmann, once again criticized the work of the European Central Bank. He said that the purchase of bonds by the European Central Bank could jeopardize independence since the central banks of countries should not take on too much of a burden. On the one hand, the criticism of the work of the European regulator does not sound the first time, but now, on the background of the fact that Weidmann is one of the potential candidates for the post of ECB chairman, it is perceived by the market quite differently. His victory may lead to significant changes in the approach and attitude of the ECB to monetary policy in the future.

As for the technical picture of the EURUSD pair, the upward correctional potential may continue today. This requires a breakthrough resistance of 1.1350, which will strengthen the demand for the euro and lead to new highs of 1.1390 and 1.1440. In the case of a downward correction of the euro, support will be provided by a large area of 1.1300, where you can return to the opening of long positions in risky assets.

Today's exit of fundamental data on inflation in the United States and a number of other indicators can only aggravate the position of the US dollar amid slowing economic growth.

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Overview of the currency market on 13.02.2019

In general, as expected almost throughout yesterday, the dollar continued to strengthen its position and extremely sluggish indeed. The head of the Bank of England during his speech has once again spoken about the risks and unpredictable consequences of Brexit for the British economy. That is, we have not heard anything new and precisely because of the fact that market participants have already started to get tired of Mark Carney's speeches of the same nature; his words did not impress anyone. Moreover, everyone is waiting for the speech of Jerome Powell since data on open vacancies in the United States were published, whereas the number increased from 7,166 thousand to 7,335 thousand and the previous data revised from 6,888 thousand. The head of the Federal Reserve System did not say it specifically although he expressed concern about the negative dynamics on the deterioration of macroeconomic indicators. Such statements only reinforce the concerns of market participants that by the end of the year, the Fed may apply some mitigating monetary policy measures. Thus, Jerome Powell's speech is not yet finished as the dollar was confidently losing ground.

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Today, an incredible amount of extremely important data is coming out and inflation in the United States is of the greatest interest, which should slow down from 1.9% to 1.5%. In fact, such a significant reduction in inflation will be a confirmation of yesterday's concerns of the head of the Federal Reserve System. Hence, if the forecasts are confirmed and will most likely happen, investors will get an unequivocal answer to the question: what will the Fed do? Obviously, the US Central Bank will look for ways to ease monetary policy and probably through banking regulations. In any case, the dollar will be under heavy pressure.

But all of these will happen in the late afternoon and until that time, market participants are invited to pay attention to European statistics, particularly to industrial production in the eurozone. The European industry itself is experiencing not the best of times, as it is reduced by 3.3% but there is hope that the situation will improve somewhat and new data will show that the slowdown has slowed to 3.2%. Although there is not much difference at least a symbolic improvement in the indicator will not allow the single European currency to lose its positions. Everyone will regain inflation in the United States, which will lead to an increase in the single European currency to 1.1375.

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If we talk about the pound, primarily, everyone will be worried about inflation in the UK itself, which is likely to fall from 2.1% to 1.9%. To some extent, this fits into the picture of a general catastrophe, with which Mark Carney diligently draws, and will become another confirmation of the assumption that the Bank of England may soon reduce the refinancing rate or start considering such measures. This will be an excellent reason to reduce the pound just before the publication of inflation in the United States, after which the pound will resume its growth. Thus, in the first half of the day, the pound is expected to decline to 1.2875 and then rise to 1.2950 towards the evening.

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We are back to where we started

Regular news about the achievement of the interim agreement between Chinese and Americans on trade, which was actively fueled by the media and instilled a spark of hope in investors. In fact, it caused the growth of risk appetite in the markets and the weakening of the US dollar.

In the past few months, the topic of negotiations on trade between Beijing and Washington has been central to financial markets, of course, except for Brexit and the expectation that the Fed and other major central banks in the world will not seek to tighten monetary policy this year. Investors continue to reasonably believe that in the current situation of slowing global economy in general, it seems that American common sense should force Donald Trump to compromise on customs duties in trade with the Chinese which Europe and China have already adapted.

Indeed, the markets are right. They argue logically but as Trump's entire presidency has shown, he is not used to giving in and making compromises that is only if they are clearly not in his favor. His whole policy, both internal and external, is replete with a continuous confrontation with opponents and the desire to achieve his goal. The longest shutdown in American history happened precisely under Trump at the beginning of this year and despite it is about to end, the risk of a new government shutdown remains.

In our opinion, the investors' hope that the opposing sides will agree but it is extremely insignificant. Also, the Chinese are stubborn and try to stick to their interests. Only the achievement of the option to compromise will help to avoid a new escalation of the trade conflict. In the meantime, we expect the continuation of movements in the financial markets to be uncertain. As for the situation in the foreign exchange market, we believe that the weakening of the US dollar will be local. As long as the risk of not reaching agreements between the US and the PRC is present, the dollar is likely to be kept afloat since increased confrontation between the disputing parties, as well as a host of other problems which we have already mentioned above, will support the dollar as a safe haven currency.

Forecast of the day:

The AUD/USD pair is trading above the level of 0.7115 in the wake of hopes of reaching a trade agreement between the US and China. If these sentiments remain and the pair holds above the level of 0.7115, there is a chance that growth will continue to 0.7200.

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The NZD/USD pair is below the level of 0.6855. It is also supported by the news on the negotiation process between the PRC and the United States. She can also continue the local growth to 0.6925 after overcoming the level of 0.6855. If this does not happen, there is a likelihood for a reversal of the pair and its expected decline to 0.6720. ain's release date from the EU perhaps by the end of 2019 or more. This is also positive.

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Currently, the markets will look closely at the new data on inflation in the US expected today at 13.30 London time.

We are ready to buy euros from 1.1515.

We are ready to sell the euro from 1.1255.

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Bitcoin analysis for February 13, 2019

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Bitcoin has been trading downwards. The price tested the level of $3.590. We found the failed test of the resistance at $3.760, which is a sign that buyers don't have power at this stage. We also found the broken intraday support trendline at $3.640, which is a sign that sellers are in control. If BTC breaks the support at $3.592, we may see a test of $3.542.

Trading recommendation: We sold intraday BTC at $3.630 with protective stop at $3.760.

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Fundamental Analysis of USD/CAD for February 13, 2019

USD/CAD has been quite volatile between the price range of 1.3200 to 1.3350, from where it is currently moving lower with strong bearish momentum. USD failed to gain momentum over CAD despite the positive economic reports and hawkish FED statement recently that indicates indecision in the market.

Recently FED Chairman Powell has been quite optimistic in his recent speech as he spoke about the strong US economy and unemployment dropping to nearly a 50-year low. Analysts speculate on the likelihood of recession. However, Jerome Powell disagreed with it completely and denied the scenario of recession. Kansas City FED President Esther George recently stated that a pause in rate hikes is required for assessing the decision made earlier. Meanwhile, the domestic economy has been showing strong performance. Recently US JOLTS Job Opening report was published with an increase to 7.34M from the previous figure of 7.17M which was expected to decrease to 6.84M. Today US CPI report is going to be published which is expected to increase to 0.1% from the previous value of -0.1% and Core CPI is expected to be unchanged at 0.2%. Moreover, US lawmakers managed to come to a deal on President Trump's demands for funding the protective wall along the US-Mexico border. The US dollar perked up amid the welcome news.

On the other hand, as a commodity currency the loonie gained momentum amid the oil's steady rally. The Canadian Labor Market showed significant growth to 66.8k from the previous value of 9.3k which was expected to decrease to 6.5k which empowered CAD to gain momentum despite the healthy US economy. The Bank of Canada is not currently expected to increase the rates soon. Unstable oil prices are likely to affect the overall CAD gains. Tomorrow Canada's Manufacturing Sales report is going to be published which is expected to increase to 0.3% from the previous value of -1.4% and NHPI is expected to be unchanged at 0.0%.

Meantime, the US economy remains on a sound footing, while Canada's economic growth is expected to slow down.

Now let us look at the technical view. The price is currently trading above 1.3200 with a retest after, following impulsive bearish pressure. After the recent false break below 1.3200 area, the bulls are currently quite active at 1.3200 from where certain bullish pressure is expected which may lead the price towards 1.3350 and later towards 1.3500 area in the coming days. As the price remains above 1.3200 area with a daily close, the bullish bias is expected to continue.

SUPPORT: 1.30, 1.3200

RESISTANCE: 1.3350, 1.3500

BIAS: BULLISH

MOMENTUM: VOLATILE

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GBP/USD analysis for February 13, 2019

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GBP/USD has been trading sideways at the price of 1.2882. Anyway, according to the H1 time – frame, we found many sings of potential strength on this currency pair. GBP/USD is now testing the lower parallel (support) of the median line at the price of 1.2880, which is a sign that selling looks risky. Besides, we found confirmed hidden bullish divergence on the MACD oscillator in the background and broken downward mini Pitchfork channel, which is another sign of strength. Short-term support is seen at 1.2870 and the short -term resistance at 1.2920.

Trading recommendation: We bought GBP at 1.2886 with protective stop at 1.2830. Our main target is set at 1.2995 but we expect testing of median line in the future.

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Simplified wave analysis of EUR / CHF for February 13

Large-scale graphics:

The current large-scale wave construction begins on September 10. It has the appearance of a standard plane. By the end of last year, the first parts (A + B) were completed

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Medium scale graphics:

The main vector of the short-term trend since February 13 is directed to the "north" of the chart. In a larger wave, this section became the final part (C).

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Small-scale graphics:

From January 30, the price forms a downward wave. For a time scale wave, the plot took the place of correction (B).

Forecast and recommendations:

The wave develops according to the algorithm, according to which the price will rise to the nearest resistance. In the coming days, the price will have a short pullback down, which can be used by supporters of intraday.

Resistance zones:

- 1.1490 / 1.1540

Support areas:

- 1.1350 / 1.1300

Explanations for the figures: The simplified wave analysis uses waves consisting of 3 parts (A – B – C). The analysis uses 3 consecutive scale graph. Each of them analyzes the last, incomplete wave. Zones show calculated areas with the highest probability of reversal. The arrows indicate the wave marking by the method used by the author. The solid background shows the formed structure, the dotted - the expected movement.

Note: The wave algorithm does not take into account the duration of tool movements over time. To conduct a trade transaction, you need confirmation signals from the trading systems you use!

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Fractal analysis of major currency pairs on February 13

Dear colleagues.

For the currency pair Euro / Dollar, the price forms the potential for the top of February 12 and the development of this structure is expected after the breakdown of 1.1370. For the currency pair Pound / Dollar, we should continue the downward movement after the breakdown of 1.2828. For the currency pair Dollar / Franc, we expect the upward movement to continue after the price passes the range of 1.0086 - 1.0096. For the currency pair Dollar / Yen, the upward structure development from January 31 is expected to continue after the breakdown of 110.66. For the currency pair Euro / Yen, the price forms a rising structure of February 8 and the level of 124.79 is the key support. For the currency pair Pound / Yen, the situation is in equilibrium.

Forecast for February 13:

Analytical review of H1-scale currency pairs:

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For the currency pair Euro / Dollar, the key levels on the H1 scale are 1.1424, 1.1402, 1.1370, 1.1345, 1.1314, 1.1297, 1.1276 and 1.1255. The price forms the potential for an upward movement of February 12 in a correction from the upward structure. The short-term upward movement is expected in the area of 1.1345 - 1.1370 and the breakdown of the last value should be accompanied by a pronounced upward movement. The target is 1.1402. The potential value for the top is considered the level of 1.1424, upon reaching which we expect consolidation, as well as a possible rollback to the correction.

The corrective downward movement is possible in the area of 1.1314 - 1.1297 and the breakdown of the latter value will lead to a prolonged correction. The goal is 1.1276 and this level is the key support for the upward structure.

The main trend is the formation of potential for the top of February 12.

Trading recommendations:

Buy 1.1345 Take profit: 1.1370

Buy 1.1374 Take profit: 1.1400

Sell: 1.1314 Take profit: 1.1298

Sell: 1.1296 Take profit: 1.1277

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For the currency pair Pound / Dollar, the key levels on the H1 scale are 1.2991, 1.2929, 1.2885, 1.2828, 1.2789, 1.2722 and 1.2666. We continue to monitor the downward trend from January 28. The short-term downward movement is expected in the area of 1.2828 - 1.2789 and the breakdown of the latter value will lead to the movement to the target of 1.2722, near this level is the price consolidation. The potential value for the bottom is considered the level of 1.2666, upon reaching which we expect a rollback to the top.

The corrective movement is possible in the range of 1.2885 - 1.2929 and the breakdown of the last value will lead to a prolonged correction. The target is 1.2991.

The main trend is the downward cycle of January 28, the local structure of February 7.

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 1.2885 Take profit: 1.2927

Buy: 1.2932 Take profit: 1.2990

Sell: 1.2826 Take profit: 1.2792

Sell: 1.2787 Take profit: 1.2724

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For the currency pair Dollar / Franc, the key levels on the H1 scale are 1.0147, 1.0134, 1.0111, 1.0096, 1.0086, 1.0055, 1.0042 and 1.0025. The continuation of the development of the ascending structure from February 11 is expected after the price passes the range of 1.0086 - 1.0096. In this case, the target is 1.0111, and consolidation is near this level. The breakdown of 1.0111 should be accompanied by a pronounced upward movement. The goal is 1.0134. The potential value for the top is considered the level of 1.0147, upon reaching which we expect consolidation, as well as a rollback to the top.

The short-term downward movement is expected in the area of 1.0055 - 1.0042 and the breakdown of the latter value will lead to a prolonged correction. The target is 1.0025 and this level is the key support.

The main trend is the local rising structure of February 11.

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 1.0096 Take profit: 1.0110

Buy: 1.0112 Take profit: 1.0132

Sell: 1.0055 Take profit: 1.0044

Sell: 1.0040 Take profit: 1.0025

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For the currency pair Dollar / Yen, the key levels on the scale of H1 are 111.74, 111.32, 111.08, 110.66, 110.22, 109.97 and 109.64. We continue to monitor the ascending structure of January 31. The continuation of the movement upward is expected after the breakdown of 110.66. The goal is 111.08 and in the area of 111.08 - 111.32 is the price consolidation. The breakdown of the level of 111.33 should be accompanied by a pronounced upward movement. The potential target is 111.74, from this level, we expect a downward rollback.

The short-term downward movement is possible in the area of 110.22 - 109.97 and the breakdown of the latter value will lead to a prolonged correction. The goal is 109.64 and this level is the key support for the upward structure.

The main trend is the rising structure of January 31.

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 110.66 Take profit: 111.08

Buy: 111.10 Take profit: 111.30

Sell: 110.22 Take profit: 110.00

Sell: 110.95 Take profit: 109.66

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For the currency pair Canadian dollar / Dollar, the key levels on the H1 scale are 1.3348, 1.3327, 1.3293, 1.3272, 1.3206, 1.3169, 1.3147, 1.3114 and 1.3068. We expect the development of the downward cycle from February 8, for which a breakdown of the level of 1.3205 is necessary. In this case, the goal is 1.3169 and in the area of 1.3169 - 1.3147 is the price consolidation. The breakdown of the level of 1.3114 will lead to the movement to the level of 1.3114, from this level, there is a high probability of a turn into a correction. The potential value for the bottom is considered the level of 1.3068, upon reaching which we expect a rollback.

The short-term upward movement is expected in the area of 1.3272 - 1.3293 and the breakdown of the latter value will have to form a local ascending structure. The target is 1.3327 and the range of 1.3327 - 1.3348.

The main trend is the upward structure of January 31, the formation of the structure for the downward cycle of February 8.

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 1.3272 Take profit: 1.3292

Buy: 1.3295 Take profit: 1.3327

Sell: 1.3206 Take profit: 1.3170

Sell: 1.3146 Take profit: 1.3114

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For the currency pair Australian dollar / dollar, the key levels on the H1 scale are 0.7168, 0.7132, 0.7113, 0.7049, 0.7025, 0.6995 and 0.6977. We continue to follow the development of the downward structure of January 31. The short-term downward movement is expected in the area of 0.7049 - 0.7025 and the breakdown of the latter value should be accompanied by a pronounced downward movement. The target is 0.6995 and the potential value for the bottom is 0.6977, upon reaching which we expect a consolidated movement in the area of 0.6977 - 0.6995, as well as a rollback to the top.

The short-term upward movement is possible in the area of 0.7113 - 0.7132 and the breakdown of the latter value will lead to a deep correction. The target is 0.7168 and this level is the key support for the downward structure.

The main trend is the downward cycle of January 31.

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 0.7113 Take profit: 0.7130

Buy: 0.7134 Take profit: 0.7166

Sell: 0.7047 Take profit: 0.7027

Sell: 0.7025 Take profit: 0.6995

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For the currency pair Euro / Yen, the key levels on the H1 scale are 126.36, 126.08, 125.66, 125.35, 124.99, 124.79 and 124.46. We are following the formation of the ascending structure of February 8. An upward movement is expected after the breakdown of 125.35. In this case, the goal is 125.66, and consolidation is near this level. The breakdown of the level of 125.68 must be accompanied by a pronounced upward movement. The target is 126.08. The potential value for the top is considered the level of 126.36, after reaching which we expect consolidation, as well as a rollback to the top.

The short-term downward movement is possible in the area of 124.99 - 124.79 and the breakdown of the latter value will lead to a prolonged correction. The goal is 124.46 and this level is the key support for the top.

The main trend is the formation of the ascending structure of February 8.

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 125.35 Take profit: 125.65

Buy: 125.70 Take profit: 126.05

Sell: 124.97 Take profit: 124.80

Sell: 124.75 Take profit: 124.50

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For the currency pair Pound / Yen, the key levels on the H1 scale are 143.35, 142.86, 142.53, 141.84, 141.18, 140.38 and 139.80. The situation entered into an equilibrium state. We expect short-term downward movement in the range of 141.84 - 141.18 and the breakdown of the latter value should be accompanied by a pronounced downward movement. The target is 140.38. The potential value for the bottom is considered the level of 139.80, after reaching which we expect consolidation, as well as a rollback to the top.

The short-term upward movement is possible in the area of 142.53 - 142.86 and the breakdown of the latter value will lead to a deep correction. The target is 143.35 and this level is the key support for the bottom.

The main trend is the equilibrium state.

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 142.53 Take profit: 142.84

Buy: 142.88 Take profit: 143.35

Sell: 141.80 Take profit: 141.20

Sell: 141.15 Take profit: 140.45

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Simplified wave analysis of GBP / USD for February 13

Large-scale graphics:

Since April of last year, the downward wave sets the price movement vector. The price achieved support large scale. Given the incompleteness of the structure, the counter-correction is further expected.

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Medium scale graphics:

The rising wave that began on December 12 in a larger wave model completes a correctional model that has the wrong appearance.

Small-scale graphics:

On an interday scale, the price direction is set by the bearish wave of January 25th. Immediate support is at the upper edge of the potential reversal zone of the older TF. In the coming days, it is expected to roll back prices.

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Forecast and recommendations:

In the short-term trend of the pound chart, there is a change in the motion vector. Supporters of Intraday can take advantage of the current market situation by opening sales in the area of calculated resistance.

Resistance zones:

- 1.2970 / 1.3020

Support areas:

- 1.2700 / 1.2650

Explanations for the figures: The simplified wave analysis uses waves consisting of 3 parts (A – B – C). The analysis uses 3 consecutive scale graph. Each of them analyzes the last, incomplete wave. Zones show calculated areas with the highest probability of reversal. The arrows indicate the wave marking by the method used by the author. The solid background shows the formed structure, the dotted - the expected movement.

Note: The wave algorithm does not take into account the duration of tool movements over time. To conduct a trade transaction, you need confirmation signals from the trading systems you use!

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Technical analysis of NZD/USD for February 13, 2019

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Overview:

The NZD/USD pair breached resistance which had turned into strong support at the level of 0.6705 this week. The level of 0.6705 coincides with a golden ratio, which is expected to act as major support today. The RSI is considered to be overbought, because it is above 70. The RSI is still signaling that the trend is upward as it is still strong above the moving average (100). Besides, note that the pivot point is seen at the point of 0.6882. This suggests that the pair will probably go up in the coming hours. Accordingly, the market is likely to show signs of a bullish trend. In other words, buy orders are recommended to be placed above 0.6800 with the first target at the level of 0.6882. From this point, the pair is likely to begin an ascending movement to the point of 0.6882 and further to the level of 0.6984. The level of 0.6984 will act as strong resistance. However, if there is a breakout at the support level of 0.6705, this scenario may become invalidated.

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BITCOIN Analysis for February 13, 2019

Bitcoin recently formed a Descending Triangle pattern while residing and correcting above $3,600 with a daily close. The price rejected off the triangle resistance for a several times. The price has skewed quite tightly and a breakout above is expected to lead the price higher towards $4,000 resistance area in the coming days. The volume at the current corrective period is very low while a break above the triangle resistance is expected to lead to impulsive bullish pressure in the overall bias. As the price remains above $3,500-600 with a daily close, the bullish pressure is expected to push the price higher an impulsive momentum.

SUPPORT: 3,500, 3,600

RESISTANCE: 4,000, 4,250

BIAS: BEARISH

MOMENTUM: VOLATILE

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Technical analysis of USD/CHF for February 13, 2019

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Overview:

The USD/CHF pair continues to move upwards from the level of 1.0003. Today, the first support level is currently seen at 1.0003, the price is moving in a bullish channel now. Furthermore, the price has been set above the strong support at the level of 0.9982, which coincides with the 50% Fibonacci retracement level. This support has been rejected three times confirming the veracity of an uptrend. According to the previous events, we expect the USD/CHF pair to trade between 1.0003 and 1.0067. So, the support stands at 1.0003, while daily resistance is found at 1.0067. Therefore, the market is likely to show signs of a bullish trend around the spot of 1.0003. In other words, buy orders are recommended above the spot of 1.0003 with the first target at the level of 1.0067; and continue towards 1.0103 and 1.0140. However, if the USD/CHF pair fails to break through the resistance level of 1.0030 today, the market will decline further to 0.9908.

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Analysis of Gold for February 13, 2019

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Gold did successful rejection of the key shot-term resistance at $1.314.00 (yellow rectangle). We found a potential end of the upward correction (abc) and the breakout of the support trendline in the background, which is a sign of the weakness. Support is now seen at $1.308.00. The trend is still bearish.

R1: $1.318.00

R2: $1.322.40

R3: $1.326.50

Pivot: $1.314.00

S1: $1.309.90

S2: $1.305.80

S3: $1.301.60

Trading recommendation: We sold Gold at $1.310.00 and we have placed our stop at $1.318.00.

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Trading Plan 02/13/2019

The main event of overcoming the shutdown in the United States has made progress. There is an agreement in the Congress about a compromise. It is more likely that there will be no new shutdown after February 15.

Positive news resulted from the US-China trade negotiations.

There is very little progress on the issue of the UK-EU agreement but it is likely that Theresa May will ask the EU to postpone Britain's release date from the EU perhaps by the end of 2019 or more. This is also positive.

Currently, the markets will look closely at the new data on inflation in the US expected today at 13.30 London time.

We are ready to buy euros from 1.1515 .

We are ready to sell the euro from 1.1255.

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Wave analysis of EUR / USD for February 13. Expect another downward impulse to complete wave 3

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Wave counting analysis:

On Tuesday, February 12, trading ended for EUR / USD by 50 bp increase. Thus, the instrument inside the intended wave 3 clearly shows the five-wave structure of the waves. If this is true, then there should be another final impulse wave 5, 3. The unsuccessful attempt to break through the 76.4% Fibonacci level implies that the instrument is ready to build this wave. The breakthrough of the 76.4% level will indicate the pair's readiness for an increase and will suggest the completion of wave 3, which in this case can be interpreted as a wave with inside the three wave structures.

Sales targets:

1.1228 - 127.0% Fibonacci

1.1215 - 0.0% Fibonacci

Shopping goals:

1.1444 - 38.2% Fibonacci

1.1514 - 50.0% Fibonacci

General conclusions and trading recommendations:

The pair continues to build a downward wave of 3. Thus, now I still recommend selling EUR / USD, but be more cautious, with targets around 1.1228 and 1.1215, which corresponds to 127.2% and 0, 0% Fibonacci. I expect the construction of wave 5, 3, which may turn out to be small and only a few bp. It may go below the minimum of wave 5, 3, or even shorten.

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Indicator analysis. Daily review for February 13, 2019 for the EUR / USD pair

Trend analysis (Fig. 1).

On Wednesday, the price may continue upwards. The first upper target of 1.1357 is the recoiling level of 38.2% (yellow dotted line).

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Fig. 1 (daily schedule).

Comprehensive analysis:

- indicator analysis - up;

- Fibonacci levels - up;

- volumes - down;

- candlestick analysis - up;

- trend analysis - down;

- Bollinger lines - down;

- weekly schedule - up.

General conclusion:

On Wednesday, the price may continue upwards. The first upper target of 1.1357 is the recoiling level of 38.2% (yellow dotted line).

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Forecast for EUR / USD pair on February 13, 2019

EUR / USD pair

Yesterday, the euro fulfilled the scenario exactly as expected, reaching the target level of 1.1262 which it was not able to achieved by 5 points on Tuesday and rushed into corrective growth. The estimated target resistance of 1.1335 was attained but the balance indicator line on the four-hour chart managed to adapt to the price increase ahead of it. Now, it is approaching the MACD line (blue) on the indicator trend line. The expected vanishing point is 1.1360 near the Fibonacci retracement level of 38.2%. Also, the resistance line is at 1.1362 in the price channel on the daily chart.

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The head of the Federal Reserve Jerome Powell spoke about rural policy at a forum yesterday evening. He discussed only in general terms about the economy, noting the good state of the labor market and the absence of signs of recession. Given the general context of the presentation, investors did not focus on such a seemingly optimistic assessment.

Today, there is an extensive block of economic indicators for January, including consumer price indices, construction of new houses, foreign trade balance, labor costs, as well as, data on oil reserves and petroleum products and the performance of Fed members R. Bostic L. Mester and P. Harker. Depending on the aggregate information, the volatility may increase, which allow us to slightly expand the target range of this correction at 1.1360 / 86 to the Fibonacci level of 50.0%. In this case, the price will be higher than the trend line of the price channel of the daily timeframe but such cases of false exits have already occurred on December 10 and November 20 (marked by arrows on the daily chart).

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Technical analysis of GBP/USD for 13/02/2019:

Technical market overview:

The GBP/USD pair has made an indecision candlestick pattern with a low at the level of 1.2832 and then the price has bounced towards the nearest technical resistance zone located between the levels of 1.2920 - 1.2928. The momentum remains neutral on the way up and the price seems to be reversing again, so the first technical assistance has capped the bullish attempt to rally. The question remains whether the market will continue the downtrend straight on or we will have to wait until some kind of horizontal correction completes first. So far, the first option is more probable.

Weekly Pivot Points:

WR3 - 1.3314

WR2 - 1.3207

WR1 - 1.3066

Weekly Pivot - 1.2955

WS1 - 1.2817

WS2 - 1.2712

WS3 - 1.2570

Trading recommendations:

Day traders should try to open sell orders again as close as possible to the level of 1.2920 with a protective SL just above the level of 1.2929. The target is seen at the levels of 1.2860 and 1.2853. Please notice that currently, this is not the best level to open long-term sell orders as the corrective bounce might be still developing.

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Technical analysis of EUR/USD for 13/02/2019

Technical analysis of EUR/USD for 13/02/2019

Finally, the market makes a corrective bounce higher.

Technical market overview:

The EUR/USD pair has bounced from the level of 1.1258 after some sort of a Pin Bar candlestick pattern was made, which looked more like an indecision pattern than a reversal pattern. Nevertheless, the bulls have managed to push the prices towards the technical resistance zone and made a new local high at the level of 1.1341. The price is currently trading inside of the resistance zone and if the bulls will not push higher, the bears will take back the control over the market and push the prices back to the downtrend. Please notice that the momentum remains neutral on the way up, so the bounce is really corrective in nature and a reversal might happen any time now.

Weekly Pivot Points:

WR3 - 1.1528

WR2 - 1.1495

WR1 - 1.1390

Weekly Pivot - 1.1351

WS1 - 1.1247

WS2 - 1.1212

WS3 - 1.1101

Trading recommendations:

The short-term sell orders for daytraders did not hit the projected take profit level and the small loss was made, but earlier we made huge profits on the longer-term sell orders anyway. Currently, it is better to trade with the dominant trend and again only the sell orders should be opened with a protective stop loss above the level of 1.1342. Potential targets are swing lows around 1.1289.

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Indicator analysis. Daily review for February 13, 2019 for the pair GBP / USD

Trend analysis (Fig. 1).

On Wednesday, the price will move up. The first upper target of 1.2980 is the recoiling level of 38.2% (yellow dotted line).

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Fig. 1 (daily schedule).

Comprehensive analysis:

- indicator analysis - up;

- Fibonacci levels - up;

- volumes - up;

- candlestick analysis - up;

- trend analysis - down;

- Bollinger lines - down;

- weekly schedule - up.

General conclusion:

The price will move up on Wednesday. The first upper target of 1.2980 is the recoiling level of 38.2% (yellow dotted line).

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Ethereum Elliott Wave analysis for 13/02/2019

Technical market overview:

The ETH/USD pair has spiked up towards the resistance zone located between the levels of 124.61 - 127.59, but the price reversed quickly and made a Shooting Star candlestick pattern so far. This kind of price action is the first warning that the current uptrend might be reversing. The second warning comes from the Elliott Wave theory perspective in which the recent up move might be a corrective wave (c) move, so it is about to complete as well. The third warning is the clear and visible bearish divergence between the price and the momentum indicator at the current levels around the 122 USD.

Please notice the bearish divergence between the price and the momentum indicator that support the short-term bearish outlook. The nearest technical support is seen at the level of 114 USD and 112.15 USD.

Weekly Pivot Points:

WR3 - 149.94

WR2 - 135.39

WR1 - 127.42

Weekly Pivot - 112.16

WS1 - 105.12

WS2 - 90.45

WS3 - 82.23

Trading recommendations:

No buy orders should be opened at the current price levels. Only the sell orders should be opened as close as possible to the level of 120.81 - 124.10 with a protective stop loss placed above the level of 127.59 The target is technical support at the level of 112.15 and 110.33.

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Bitcoin Elliott Wave analysis for 13/02/2019

Technical market overview:

The BTC/USD bulls are trying to move higher and the firsts attempt to break out from the triangle pattern has been made. Nevertheless, the local high was made at the level of $3,700 and then the price reversed back to the range. Currently, the price is testing the potential breakout from the upside and if successful, the move upwards should continue because from the Elliott wave point of view, the current price action is a wave 4 correction in progress, so there is wave 5 left anyway. The targets for wave 5 are seen at the levels of $3,763 and $3,850.

Weekly Pivot Points:

WR3 - $4,242

WR2 - $4,002

WR1 - $3,885

Weekly Pivot - $3,610

WS1 - $3,455

WS2 - $3,290

WS3 - $3,068

Trading recommendations:

After the spike up the traders should try to buy the BTC at one of the buyback zones: $3,591 - $3,631 with a solid protective stop-loss order. The targets should be placed at the level of $3,767 or even above as the impulsive wave progression will unfold.

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Technical analysis for EUR/USD for February 13, 2019

EUR/USD finally bounced by one day delay. Price reached very close to our first target at the 38% Fibonacci retracement of the entire decline from 1.15. The bullish divergence signs have given us the warning signals that a bounce was coming. I believe the bounce is not finished.

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Red line - major resistance trend line

Green line - major support trend line

Black lines - bullish divergence

Black rectangles - bounce target areas

EUR/USD has bounced off the 1.1260 area towards the 38% Fibonacci retracement. The 1.13-1.1330 area used to be an important support area so the struggle here between bulls and bears is intense. Breaking above 1.1350 will push price towards 1.14 and the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement where I believe we should expect to see another lower high. Major stop for bulls is at recent low while bears remain comfortable in control of the trend as long as price is below the red trend line resistance.

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Technical analysis for Gold for February 13, 2019

Gold price is still vulnerable to a move towards $1,300 and I remain bearish biased as long as price is below $1,317. Medium-term trend remains bullish as long as price is above $1,280-75 area.

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Purple lines - bullish channel

Yellow rectangle -important short-term support

Black rectangle - resistance

Gold price has short-term resistance at $1,317. A break above it will open the way for new highs towards $1,330-40 and maybe towards our longer-term target of $1,350. Failure to break above $1,317 over the next couple of sessions, might lead to another pullback towards the short-term support at $1.300. Breaking below it might push price towards $1,280-75 major support area and lower boundary of the channel. Currently I prefer to be neutral or bearish as long as price is below $1,317.

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