Intraday technical levels and trading recommendations for EUR/USD for September 21, 2015

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The pair moved lower after breaking below major demand levels around 1.2100 and 1.2000 where historical bottoms were previously established back in July 2012 and June 2010.

EUR/USD bears have already pushed the price slightly below the monthly demand level at 1.0550 (established in January 1997). Bullish recovery was observed shortly after.

April's candlestick came as bullish engulfing one. However, the next monthly candlesticks (May, June, July, and August) reflected the recent bearish rejection which exists around price level of 1.1450.

In the long term, a projection target is still seen at 0.9450 if a bearish breakdown of the monthly demand level at 1.0550 occurs soon.

On the other hand, a bullish corrective movement towards 1.1500 can take place only if the monthly high of 1.1465 gets breached.

It can be achieved if the current monthly candlestick closes above a weekly high of 1.1465 by the end of the current month ( low probability ).

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Multiple ascending bottoms were established around the levels of 1.0830 and 1.1020. These levels corresponded to the current daily uptrend depicted on the chart.

Extensive bullish pressure was applied until bearish resistance was expressed around the level of 1.1700.

The market looked overbought as bulls were pushing further beyond the price level of 1.1500 (Daily Supply Level).

Hence, bearish movement took place towards the level of 1.1150 (61.8% Fibonacci level), which provided evident bullish rejection (note the recent daily candlesticks).

As anticipated, tThe intraday supply zone of 1.1300-1.1330 provided significant bearish rejection. An intraday sell ntry was suggested with T/P levels placed at 1.1150 and 1.1050.

On the other hand, daily persistence below the level of 1.1150 (61.8% Fibonacci level) is mandatory to expose the next demand level around 1.0980 where the daily uptrend comes to meet the pair.

Conservative traders should wait for a bearish pullback towards the price zone of 1.0980-1.1000 (the depicted uptrend line) for a valid buy entry.

S/L should be placed below 1.0950. T/P levels should be placed at 1.1080 and 1.1160.

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Gold: analysis for September 21 , 2015

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Overview:

Since our last analysis, gold has been trading downwards. The price tested the level of $1,129.43. The intraday trend is neutral. According to the daily time frame, we can observe a demand bar in an average volume. In the M30 time frame, we can observe weakness around the level of $1,135.50, which is a sign that buying looks risky at this stage. Also, I found potential wyckoff distribution phase from the top, which is another sign of weakness.

Daily Fibonacci pivot points :

Resistance levels

R1: 1,138.60

R2: 1,139.30

R3: 1,140.35

Support levels:

S1: 1,136.50

S2: 1,135.80

S3: 1,134.75

Trading recommendations: Resistance at the price of $1,135.50 held successful. Watch only for potential selling opporutnities after retracement (weak demand).

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Technical analysis of USD/JPY for September 21, 2015

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USD/JPY is expected to rebound. Last Friday, U.S. stocks extended a sell-off sparked by worries about global growth and chalked on the largest one-day loss in two weeks. The Dow Jones Industrial Average dropped 1.7% to 16384, the S&P 500 fell 1.6% to 1958, and the Nasdaq Composite declined 1.4% to 4827. Nymex crude oil plunged 4.7% to $44.68 a barrel, while gold surged 1.9% to $1,138 an ounce. The 10-year Treasury yield sank to 2.130% from 2.215% in the previous session. Along with the bounce in the US Treasury bonds, the greenback posted a strong rebound against most other major currencies. EUR/USD dropped 1.1% to 1.1305, GBP/USD fell 0.4% to 1.5531, USD/CHF rose 1.0% to 0.9683, and USD/CAD rebounded from a day-low of 1.3007 to 1.3229.The pair is posting a rebound from last Friday's intraday low of 119.01. The intraday 20-period intraday moving average (MA) has crossed above the 50-period one, while the intraday relative strength indicator (RSI) is around the neutrality level at 50. As long as 119.65 holds as the key support, the pair is expected to extended its rebound to the first upside target at 120.75 (around the high of September 18). The second one is set at 121.

Trading recommendations:

The pair is trading above its pivot point. It is likely to trade in a wider range as long as it remains above its pivot point. As long as the price holds above its pivot point, long positions are recommended with the first target at 120.75 and the second target at 121. In the alternative scenario, short positions are recommended with the first target at 119.35. if the price moves below its pivot points. A break of this target is likely to push the pair further downwards, and one may expect the second target at 118.90. The pivot point is at 119.65.

Resistance levels: 120.75 121 121.50

Support levels: 119.35 118.90 118.20

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Technical analysis of USD/CHF for September 21, 2015

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USD/CHF is expected to trade in a higher range. The pair keeps trading on the upside while being supported by the rising 20-period MA. The bullish momentum is still strong, as the intraday RSI is well directed above its neutrality area at 50. Furthermore, a strong support base has formed around 0.9625, which should limit any downward attempts. Above 0.9625, further advance is more likely to challenge 0.9760 (an intraday resistance). In case of a breakout, look for 0.9760 and 0.9790.

Trading recommendations:

The pair is trading above its pivot point. It is likely to trade in a wider range as long as it remains above its pivot point. As long as the price holds above its pivot point, long positions are recommended with the first target at 0.9760 and the second target at 0.9790. In the alternative scenario, short positions are recommended with the first target at 0.9585 if the price moves below its pivot points. A break of this target is likely to push the pair further downwards, and one may expect the second target at 0.9560. The pivot point is at 0.9625.

Resistance levels: 0.9760 0.9790 0.9825

Support levels: 0.9585 0.9560 0.95

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Technical analysis of NZD/USD for September 21, 2015

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NZD/USD is expected to trade in a lower range as the pair is turning down. The pair has failed to hold above the support of its 50-period MA. The 20-period MA is about to cross below the 50-period one, which should confirm a negative outlook. Besides, the intraday RSI is bearish, without showing any signals of reversal. As long as the intraday resistance at 0.64 is not surpassed, further consolidations seem more likely to occur towards 0.6310.

Trading recommendations:

The pair is trading below its pivot point. It is likely to trade in a lower range as long as it remains below the pivot point. Short positions are recommended with the first target at 0.6310. A break of that target will move the pair further downwards to 0.6290. The pivot point stands at 0.64. In case the price moves in the opposite direction and bounces back from the support level, it will move above its pivot point. It is likely to move further to the upside. According to that scenario, long positions are recommended with the first target at 0.6410 and the second target at 0.6435.

Resistance levels: 0.6415 0.6435 0.6475

Support levels: 0.6310 0.6290 0.6250

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Technical analysis of GBP/JPY for September 21, 2015

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GBP/JPY is expected to trade in a lower range as the pair is moving under pressure. The pair is moving in a downtrend on an intraday basis. The falling 20-period and 50-period MAs maintain strong selling pressure. Furthermore, the intraday RSI is below its neutrality area at 50 lacking upward momentum. In this case, as long as 187.50 holds on the upside, a test of 185.95 (a major support) would be expected, and a slide below this threshold would trigger a bearish acceleration towards 134.90.

Trading recommendations:

The pair is trading below its pivot point. It is likely to trade in a lower range as long as it remains below the pivot point. Short positions are recommended with the first target at 185.95. A breakout of that target will move the pair further downwards to 184.90. The pivot point stands at 187.50. In case the price moves in the opposite direction and bounces back from the support level, it will move above its pivot point. It is likely to move further to the upside. According to that scenario, long positions are recommended with the first target at 187.95 and the second target at 189.

Resistance levels: 187.95 189 189.85

Support levels: 185.95 184.90 184.10

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EUR/NZD analysis for September 21, 2015

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Overview:

Recently, EUR/NZD has been moving downwards. As we expected, the price tested the level of 1.7676. In the daily time frame, we can observe a strong sign of weakness (two-bar reversal). The intraday trend is neutral. Our strong trading range between the levels of 1.8000 (resistance) and 1.7270 (support) is still active. In the H1 time frame, we can observe strong sign of weakness from the top (up-thrust). Buying looks very risky. Watch only for selling opportunities after retracement. Anyway, current momentum is upward so if you want to sell wait for demand to become weak or otherwise the price can go higher.

Fibonacci Pivot Points :

Resistance levels:

R1: 1.7905

R2: 1.8000

R3: 1.8160

Support levels:

S1: 1.7585

S2: 1.7485

S3: 1.7325

Trading recommendations: There is weakness on the market from the top. Watch only for selling opportunities after retracement. Strong resistance at the price of 1.8000 was held sucessfully.

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Technical analysis of Silver for September 21, 2015

Technical outlook and chart setups:

Silver had rallied through $15.40 levels last week, threatening the bearish setup established earlier. The metal remained just shy from $15.60 and pulled back. It cpuld tocontinue dropping towards $14.75 before turning bullish again. It is hence recommended to exit short positions at $14.75 and turn bullish on a bounce there. Immediate support is seen at $14.25 followed by $14.00, $13.00, and lower while resistance is seen at $15.60 followed by $16.40, $17.50, and higher respectively. A break of $15.60 would be a confirmation for a potential reversal.

Trading recommendations:

Exit short positions at $14.75, stop is at $14.00, a target is open.

Good luck!

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Technical analysis of Gold for September 21, 2015

Technical outlook and chart setups:

Gold rallied through the $1,140.00 levels last week before correcting lower. A further push higher may threaten its bearish setup and push it higher towards the $1,200.00 levels. The metal is posed to pull back towards at least the $1,125.00 levels for now before rallying further. It is hence recommended to exit short positions around the $1,125.00 levels and initiate long positions with risk at the $1,110.00 levels. Immediate support is seen at the $1,110.00 levels followed by $1,080.00 and lower, while resistance is seen at the $1,150.00 levels (interim) followed by $1,170.00 and higher, respectively.

Trading recommendations:

Exit short positions at the $1,125.00 levels, and turn bullish.

Good luck!

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Technical analysis of EUR/JPY for September 21, 2015

Technical outlook and chart setups:

The EUR/JPY pair is trading around the level of 135.50/60 now, preparing to drop lower into 134.00/20 before turning bullish. Please also note that the pair is forming an engulfing bearish candlestick pattern on the H4 chart, indicating a continued drop lower. As depicted here, the pair could form a gartley and drop towards the levels of 134.00 which is coinciding with the fibonacci 0.618 retracement as well. It is hence recommended to remain flat for now and turn long around 134.20 with risk at 132.00. Immediate support is seen at 134.00/20 (interim) followed by 132.00 and lower, while resistance is seen at 137.50 followed by 139.00 and higher.

Trading recommendations:

Remain flat and look for an opportunity to buy at the levels of 134.00/20.

Good luck!

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Technical analysis of GBP/CHF for September 21, 2015

Technical outlook and chart setups:

The GBP/CHF pair is confined in a trading range of 200 pips between 1.4900 and 1.5100 levelsŠ± respectively. The pair is trading at the 1.5030 levels at the moment, looking to break higher above the 1.5100 levels in the sessions to come. It is recommended to initiate 50% long positions now and the remaining around the 1.4950/1.5000 levels with risk at the 1.4850 levels. Immediate support is seen at the 1.4900 levels followed by 1.4700, 1.4600 levels, while resistance is seen at the 1.5100 levels (interim) followed by 1.5350, 1.5400/10 and higher, respectively.

Trading recommendations:

Initiate 50% long positions now, stop is at 1.4850, target is open.

Good luck!

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Technical analysis of NZD/USD for September 21, 2015

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Overview:

  • The NZD/USD pair movement will be continued directly from the resistance level of 0.6375 (61.8% of Fibonacci retracement levels) in the H1 chart. Therefore, the NZD/USD pair is showing signs of weakness, following the break of the lowest level of 0.6375, for that it will be a good sign to sell below the level of 0.6375 in the short term with the first target of 0.6325 in order to test the pivot point and further to 0.6293 to form the double bottom, then this price will act as strong suport. For that, it is going to be a good place to take profit, it also should be noted that this level of taking profit will coincide with 23.6% of Fibonacci retracement levels. However, in case if a reversal takes place and the NZD/USD pair breaks through the minor resistance level of 0.6375 , the market will increase further to 0.6410 for indicating bullish market.

Notes:

  • We expect a range about 82 pips (0.6293 - 0.6375) today.
  • The risk of 82 pips must make a profit of 123 pips.
  • The value of 50% Fibonacci retracement levels is 0.6349.
  • The level of 0.6349 will confirm the bearish market.
  • Volatility is 125.53. As a rule, the market is highly volatile if the last day had a huge volatility.
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Technical analysis of USD/CHF for September 21, 2015

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Overview:

  • The price of the USD/CHF pair has traded between the levels of 0.9642 and 0.9710, but these levels are coinciding with 38.2% and 61.8% of Fibonacci retracement levels on the H1 chart, and the pair has already formed a strong resistance at the level of 0.9760. Moreover, the price has set below strong resistance at the levels of 0.9760 (78.6% of Fibonacci retracement levels in H1 chart). So now it is approaching it in order to test it. Therefore, buy above the price of 0.9710 and 0.9755. On the other hand, the Swissy's downside momentum is rather convincing and the structure of the fall does not look corrective. In order to indicate a bearish opportunity below 0.9760, it will be a good decision to sell below 0.9760 with the first target of 0.9705. It will call for a downtrend continuing falling towards 0.9675 to try to break the weekly pivot point. Thus, if the trend can break the weekly pivot point, it will lead the market to the price of 0.9650.
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Global macro overview for 21/09/2015

Global macro overview for 21/09/2015

Saudi Arabia led the OPEC earlier this year to boosting production to keep market share amid a global oversupply concerns. As a result, its oil stockpiles rose to a new record high in July this year. According to the website of the Riyadh-based Joint Organizations Data Initiative, the petroleum inventories rose from 319.5 mln barrels to 320 mln barrels and crude oil exports decreased to 7.28 mln barrels a day from 7.9 mln barrels in March 2015. It seems the crude oil and other commodities market can not overcome the glut of supply and the prices for commodities like crude oil might fall even lower to the levels below $30 a barrel in the long-term.

The daily chart of crude oil shows that the market is trading inside the congestion area between the 23% and 36% Fibonacci retracement of the previous swing low. The price is currently below the 200-day moving average and as long as the level of 49.54 is violated, the long-term outlook is still bearish.

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Global macro overview for 21/09/2015

Global macro overview for 21/09/2015

Alexis Tsipras' Syriza party has been given the credit of confidence again after winning the Greek elections in the weekend, but secured only 145 of the 300 seats in parliament. There is a high possibility that Tsipras will seek a coalition with small right wing party called Independent Greeks that currently have 10 seats. Nevertheless, the Greek people has given his party a fresh mandate built on the recent successful bailout negotiations with the creditors. Moreover, they gave a clear message to the rest of the EU members that they want to be a part of the EU even if this means more austerity measures in the near term.

The EUR/USD pair did not react that much to the Greek election results, and it is trading in the daily support zone around the level of 1.1268.

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Technical analysis of EUR/JPY for September 21, 2015

General overview for 21/09/2015 10:00 CET

The low for the wave b green has been made, but is not confirmed so far as the market trades below the golden trendline and below the lower channel line. Both of this lines will be acting as dynamic resistance and only a clear breakout above them will make the bullish scenario possible.

Support/Resistance:

133.49 - WS2

134.35 - WS1

135.20 - Intraday Support

135.91 - Weekly Pivot

135.99 - Intraday Resistance

136.84 - WR1

137.43 - Intraday Resistance

Trading recommendations:

Daytraders should consider opening sell orders with SL above the level of 136.40 and open TP for now. In case of a clear violation of the level 136.40, no sell orders should be opened as the market might be heading towards a new high above the level of 137.43.

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Technical analysis of USD/CAD for September 21, 2015

General overview for 21/09/2015 09:40 CET

There are two possible counts on near-term charts: main and alternative. The main count is a bearish impulsive count that indicates a possible top at the level of 1.3355 and the invalidation line for this count is seen at the level of 1.3309. This would meant, that any breakout higher will possibly reach another higher high in the last wave alt.5 purple. Nevertheless, there is no immediate confirmation yet and we must wait for the market to show us direction by either violating the level of 1.3309 or reachinga new local low.

Support/Resistance:

1.3356 - WR1|Swing High|

1.3309 - Green Impulsive Count Invalidation Level

1.3230 - Intraday Resistnace

1.3184 - Weekly Pivot

1.3089 - WS1

1.3011 - Technical Support

Trading recommendations:

Daytraders and swingtraders should consider opening sell orders with SL above the level of 1.3309 and open TP for now. In case of violation taking place at the level 1.3309, no sell orders should be opened as market might be heading towards a new high above the level of 1.3355.

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USDX technical analysis for September 21, 2015

The US Dollar index made an upward bounce as expected from the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement. The price has bounced back towards cloud resistance and dollar bulls could try to get some profit. We are below important resistance levels and bulls will need to show more strength in order to make a breakout.

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Green line - resistance

The US Dollar Index is testing short-term cloud resistance. I expect an initial price rejection at the current levels, but I do not give many chances of breaking below Friday's lows. I expect the price to reach a higher low and then reverse back upwards.

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Red line - resistance

Green line - support

The US Dollar Index has touched the weekly Ichimoku cloud support and bounced strongly. Weekly resistance is found at 95.50-96 by the tenkan- and kijun-sen indicators. The weekly cloud is important support and I believe the index will hold above it. The bullish flag pattern is still in play but with no clear long-term signal yet.

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Gold technical analysis for September 21, 2015

Gold price remains in a short-term bullish trend and can moveeven higher towards $1,150 over the next couple of days as long as the price is above $1,125. At $1,150, we found very important resistance. In case it gets broken, it would open the way towards $1,200.

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Red line - trend line resistance

Gold price is trading above the Ichimoku cloud and is reaching short-term higher highs and higher lows. Th eprice is heading towards the red downward sloping trend-line resistance at $1,150. This trend line proves last two important highs of $1,233 and $1,170. Ibn case it gets broken, the way towards $1,200 would be open. Support is found at $1,100. This is critical for the bullish medium-term trend.

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The weekly chart remains bullish in the short term as we closed last week above the tenkan-sen (red line indicator). Next important resistance is seen at $1,150-55 where we found the weekly kijun-sen (yellow line indicator). Cloud resistance is seen at $1,200, a target that we can achieve in case of a breakout above $1,150-55.The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Daily analysis of major pairs for September 21, 2015

EUR/USD: The outlook for this pair is still bullish, though threatened. The price managed to test the resistance line at 1.1450, before being corrected to the downside. A downward movement was not strong enough to render the current bullish outlook invalid, unless the support line at 1.1200 is breached to the downside.

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USD/CHF: The USD/CHF pair remains under bearish control. As long as the resistance level at 0.9800 is not broken to the upside, bearishness would be a rational thing. The market is expected to continue moving downwards this week; coupled with the fact that the resistance level at 0.9800 is a serious challenge to bulls.

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GBP/USD: This pair went 300 pips upwards last week, rising from the accumulation territory of 1.5350, and reaching the distribution territory at 1.5650. From that distribution territory, the price has eased by 110 pips. There would be strong volatility in the market this week, for the price would perform a series of upswings and downswings.

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USD/JPY: The USD/JPY pair moved sideways during the last week, without any significant movement to the upside or to the downside. There would be a serious breakout any day this week, which would most probably favor bears. There is the demand level at 119.00 and support is found at 121.50.

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EUR/JPY: This cross is highly volatile with serious struggles between bulls and bears. The determinant of this week's movement on the cross is the situation on the EUR and the JPY - a stronger JPY would cause the cross to tumble and a stronger EUR could cause it to skyrocket. The outlook on JPY pairs remains bearish, and therefore, there is a strong probability that the cross would trend downwards.

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Daily analysis of USDX for September 21, 2015

The USDX is currently finding dynamic support over the 200 SMA on the daily chart, after its losses after the Fed's meeting last week. Currently, we expect a breakout over the resistance level of 95.26, which would expose the zone of 95.83 as the next area for sellers. The MACD indicator is entering the negative territory again.

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On the H1 chart, the index is looking for an opportunity to move lower towards the support level of 94.97, because the 200 SMA is offering dynamic resistance in this time frame. After that move, the USDX could try a breakout below the support level of 94.97 in order to reach the next zone around the level of 94.57 on a short-term basis.

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Daily chart's resistance levels: 95.26 / 95.83

Daily chart's support levels: 94.42 / 93.18

H1 chart's resistance levels: 95.34 / 95.67

H1 chart's support levels: 94.97 / 94.57

Trading recommendations for today: Based on the H1 chart, place sell (short) orders only if the US Dollar Index breaks with a bearish candlestick; the support level is at 94.97, take profit is at 94.57, and stop loss is at 95.37.

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Technical analysis of EUR/USD for September 21, 2015

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When the European market opens, economic news on the German PPI m/m is due to be released. The US will publish economic data about Existing Home Sales. So amid the reports, EUR/USD will move with low to medium volatility during this day.

TODAY TECHNICAL LEVELS:

Breakout BUY Level: 1.1343.

Strong Resistance:1.1337.

Original Resistance: 1.1326.

Inner Sell Area: 1.1315.

Target Inner Area: 1.1289.

Inner Buy Area: 1.1263.

Original Support: 1.1252.

Strong Support: 1.1241.

Breakout SELL Level: 1.1235.

Disclaimer: Trading Forex (foreign exchange) on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.

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Technical analysis of USD/JPY for September 21, 2015

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In Asia, Japan will not release significant economic data because of a holiday, but the US will unveil economic news on Existing Home Sales. So, there is a strong probability that USD/JPY will move with low volatility during the Asian session, but with low to medium volatility during the US session.

TODAY TECHNICAL LEVELS:

Resistance. 3: 120.46.

Resistance. 2: 120.22.

Resistance. 1: 120.00.

Support. 1: 119.70.

Support. 2: 119.47.

Support. 3: 119.23.

Disclaimer: Trading Forex (foreign exchange) on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.

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Daily analysis of GBP/USD for September 21, 2015

On the daily chart, GBP/USD did a pullback around the level of 1.559, where the 200 SMA is located in this time frame. By the way, we should expect this pair to rally towards new highs in coming days, because bullish momentum is still alive pushing the price higher.

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The pair is trying to extend corrective moves in an intraday basis, towards the support level of 1.5468 in the H1 chart. That is why we expect a rebound over there, where dynamic support offered by the 200 SMA is also located. A breakout above the level of 1.5561 will expose the next interest zone around the level of 1.5609.

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Daily chart's resistance levels: 1.5559 / 1.5634

Daily chart's support levels: 1.5479 / 1.5344

H1 chart's resistance levels: 1.5561 / 1.5609

H1 chart's support levels: 1.5516 / 1.5468

Trading recommendations for today: Based on the H1 chart, place buy (long) orders only if the GBP/USD pair breaks a bullish candlestick; the resistance level is at 1.5559, take profit is at 1.5634, and stop loss is at 1.5515.

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Elliott wave analysis of EUR/NZD for September 21, 2015

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Technical summary:

Once again, strong resistance at 1.8000 managed to protect the upside pushing prices below support at 1.7649, which indicates a decline towards strong support near 1.7400 before a renewed upside pressure should be expected.

Short-term resistance is seen at in the area of 1.7649 - 1.7690. This area should ideally protect the upside for a decline to 1.7400.

Trading recommendation:

Our stop at 1.7665 was hit for a nice profit. We will sell EUR here at 1.7650 and place stop at 1.7780 and place stop-profit at 1.7415.

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Elliott wave analysis of EUR/JPY for September 21, 2015

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Technical summary:

We have seen a nice a strong decline from a high of 137.43 and now we will be looking for a break below important support at 134.98, which will confirm that wave z is developing lower.

In the short term, we will see resistance at 136.13 protecting the upside for a decline towards 132.23 and lower towards 131.45.

Trading recommendation:

We are short EUR from 136.62. We will move our stop lower to 136.50. If you are short EUR yet, then sell near 136.10 with the same stop at 136.50.

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