GBP/USD analysis for March 22, 2019

GBP/USD has been trading upward during the past 20 hours and we expect more upside in the next period.

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According to the H1 time – frame, we found confirmed inverted head and shoulders pattern (bullish), which is sign that upward movement can continue. Also, there is the fake breakout of the yesterday's low at the price of 1.3145, which is another sign of the strength. The projected upward target is set at 1.3315.

Trading recommendation: We are long GBP from 1.3185 and with protective stop at 1.3080. Take profit is set at the price of 1.3315.

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Analysis of Gold for March 22, 2019

Gold has been trading upward during the past 20 hours but the upward movement may come to the end.

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According to the M30 time – frame, we found that bearish flag in our opinion it is just question of the time when we will see the down break. Intraday support level at the price of $1.308.80 will be critical. Breakout of the support would confirm potential testing of the $1.303.90 and $1.298.00. Key resistance from the other side is seen at the price of $1.319.45.

Trading recommendation: We are watching for selling opportunities with targets at $1.303.90 and $1.298.00.

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Experts have named the main reasons for the weakening dollar this year

Morgan Stanley analysts believe that the three main factors that pushed the dollar rate higher last year could lose their strength in 2019, thereby causing the US currency to weaken.

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"The divergence in the economic growth of the United States and the rest of the world, the policy of protectionism, as well as a combination of fiscal incentives and a tightening of the monetary rate of the Fed led to a rise in the dollar last year," representatives of the financial institution said.

They said that the situation may be the opposite in 2019 and gave the following arguments:

First, the US monetary policy is changing. The Fed has refused to raise interest rates this year and plans to complete the program in order to reduce its balance after a couple of quarters. In addition, from the point of view of budgetary incentives, there are no tax cuts planned this year, following last year.

Secondly, the trade tensions between Washington and Beijing are easing. Now, the parties are negotiating at the highest level and there is a bit of a possibility that if they make a deal, this will avoid a mutual increase in trade duties.

Thirdly, it is expected that measures of fiscal and monetary incentives in China will lead to acceleration or at least to stabilize the pace of economic growth in the country over the coming months. This should provide support for a trade-dependent, including from the Middle Kingdom and the eurozone economy.

"Markets may not be prepared for the fact that these three factors will trigger a dollar weakening cycle. In addition, the United States seems vulnerable due to the large size of external commitments," noted by the experts of Morgan Stanley.

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How long will the dollar decline last? What drives the sterling?

If Theresa May wins the parliamentary vote, she will have another two months until May 22. The sterling rose a quarter percent to $ 1.3140. This has already become a common occurrence. Every time there is news about the transfer, the market responds positively and the pound grows.

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The dollar is weakening while the pound rose slightly on the news that Prime Minister Theresa May has won time to decide when and how Britain will leave the EU. if the country's parliament next week rejects the proposed Brexit plan for the third time, the leaders of the European Union gave Britain a reprieve for two weeks until April 12. Moreover, in case that Theresa May wins the parliamentary vote, she will have another two months until May 22. The sterling rose a quarter percent to $ 1.3140. This has already become a common occurrence. Every time there is news about the transfer, the market responds positively and the pound. In addition, the Bank of England left the interest rates unchanged.

The dollar paired against the yen is also a problem, despite a slight decline in inflation in Japan. In February, the core consumer prices rose 0.7 percent year on year. The data underscores the weakness of the Japanese economic recovery as sharpening trade tensions between the United States and China and China's slowdown in growth affect exports and business sentiment. In relation to the yen, the dollar fell by 110.78 yen. Three out of four Japanese companies expect the trade conflict between the United States and China to last at least until the end of 2019, which contrasts sharply with market hopes that Presidents Donald Trump and Xi Jinping may soon make a deal.

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In general, markets will need a few more days and sessions in order to understand and regain the recent changes in the position of the Fed. Given the impact of further developments related to trade and geopolitical factors, investors will hope for a more relaxed trading environment in the coming weeks.

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Brexit situation is even worse than it was. The US data supports the dollar

The British pound collapsed against the US dollar after it became known that the Brexit deal could be disrupted. Let me remind you that quite recently, British Prime Minister May asked to postpone Brexit until June 30. Yesterday, there was news that European leaders were ready to meet the request of the British Prime Minister Theresa May and postpone Brexit but only for seven weeks on a condition that the Brexit deal would be approved by the British Parliament by that time. Now, the UK has time to exit until May 22.

According to the EU, if the British Parliament did not approve the Brexit agreement by April 12, the risk of withdrawing without a deal would increase significantly.

The next step of the British Prime Minister Theresa May will be the appointment of a new vote in parliament, which is likely to be held next week. However, the House of Commons is unlikely to make concessions only under the pressure of the indiscriminate exit of the country from the EU. This scenario further increases uncertainty.

As for the technical picture of the GBP/USD pair, the volatility will remain quite high. A breakthrough on the support of 1.3120 will lead to a new wave of short positions with a return to the weekly minimums of 1.3000 and 1.2920. Under the scenarios of further growth, large resistance levels will be viewed around 1.3225 and 1.3270.

Yesterday's fundamental data on the American economy supported the US dollar.

According to a report by the US Department of Labor, the number of initial claims for unemployment benefits fell by 9,000 to 221,000 in the week from March 10 to March 16. Economists expected the number of applications to be 225,000. The number of secondary applications in the week from 3 to 9 March decreased by 27,000 to 1,750,000.

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Production activity in the area of responsibility of the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia has recovered substantially, which is a good sign. The increase was due to an increase in new orders and shipments.

Based on the report, the Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index rose to 13.7 points in March 2019 against -4.1 in February 2019. Economists had expected the index to be 5 points in March. The index of new orders in March was 1.9 points, while the index of shipments increased to 25 points.

According to the Conference Board, the leading indicators index in February 2019 also showed an increase of 0.2% compared with the previous month and amounted to 111.5 points. Economists have been waiting for the growth of the index by 0.1%.

While Beijing and the United States are conducting trade negotiations and have reached the "finish line," US President Donald Trump once again stressed that duties on Chinese goods will remain in place for a substantial period even after an agreement has been reached. Such an approach will be maintained until the White House is convinced that the deal with China will bring its results and Beijing fulfills all its conditions. Let me remind you that representatives of the two countries have been discussing the issue of the phased cancellation of fees for quite a long time.

As for the technical picture of the EUR/USD pair, growth is limited by the intermediate resistance of 1.1400, however larger levels are seen in the range of 1.1430 -1.1450. In case of a decline in the trading instrument, it is best to return to long positions from the support of 1.1330 and 1.1300.

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The dollar follows in the footsteps of the euro

Currencies of the banks were the same.

The American dollar reiterated the fate of the single European currency. First, it seriously sinks after the meeting of the Central Bank and then quickly regaining lost positions. During their March meetings, both the ECB and the Fed looked "dovish" to investors. However, if the EUR/USD pair rises after a false breakdown on the lower limit of the medium-term consolidation range of 1.125-1.15 was due to the belief that the eurozone felt the bottom then the rally in the USD index is associated with problems European economy.

After lowering FOMC forecasts for US GDP from 2.3% to 2.1% in 2019 and at the federal funds rate, the market finally believed that the monetary policy normalization cycle was over. In December, only two members of the Committee believed in keeping the rate at the level of 2.5% in the current year. This changed in March with eleven of them now. CME derivatives believe that the Fed will resort to monetary expansion with a probability of almost 45%. Expectations of monetary policy easing are a weighty argument in favor of currency sales but before getting rid of the US dollar, you need to think about how to replace it in the portfolio.

Theoretically, it could be the euro. The de-escalation of the US-Chinese trade conflict gives hope for the recovery of European exports and leaving in the shadow of temporary difficulties allows us to count on the growth of domestic demand. In fact, the purchasing manager indices signal that the negative has not yet been exhausted. Business activity in the manufacturing sector of the currency bloc fell to its lowest level since 2013 while the dynamics of the service sector leaves much to be desired. According to Markit, the current PMI values are equivalent to GDP growth of 0.2% q/q in the first quarter. This is not the figure that the bulls were counting on the EUR/USD pair.

Dynamics of European business activity

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It seems that European companies are not sure about the end of the US-Chinese trade war and they fear that the United States will impose import duties on the supply of cars from the Old World. Indeed, the conflict between the two largest economies in the world has not been exhausted. According to Bloomberg, Beijing is not pleased with the fact that Washington will not lower tariffs in response to the concessions from the Middle Kingdom. Donald Trump exacerbates the situation when he said that the duties of $ 250 billion will remain in force after the signing of the agreement. Say, you need to control how the Celestial performs its conditions.

There is no certainty about Brexit. Bloomberg estimates that about 2.5% of EU GDP is impacted by exports to Britain. Breaking ties will slow the European economy even further. It is not surprising that in such circumstances both of the GBP/USD and EUR/USD pairs move quite synchronously.

The key event of the week by March 29 for the US dollar will be the release of data on US GDP for the fourth quarter. According to Morgan Stanley, the second estimate due to the loss of steam from consumer incomes and activity is likely to be reduced from 2.6% to 1.8% q/q, which is bad news for the bears in EUR / USD. Technically, only a repeated rebound from the support at 1.125 followed by the formation of the "Head and Shoulders" pattern will leave the bulls hope for a rematch.

EUR / USD daily chart

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GBP / USD. March 22 Trading system "Regression Channels". A Third vote in parliament for the same "deal"

4 hour timeframe

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Technical details:

Senior linear regression channel: direction - up.

The younger linear regression channel: direction - up.

Moving average (20; smoothed) - down.

CCI: -101.5514

The GBP/USD currency pair began to adjust after a breakthrough. The trend of the instrument has changed to downward, but in general, everything looks as if the uptrend remains in force so far. At the same time, it is even difficult to imagine what could force traders to switch back to buying British currency, given the complete chaos in the Brexit procedure. Meanwhile, in Brussels yesterday, the European Union agreed to grant a reprieve to London but only until May 22 as previously reported, only on the condition that the British Parliament will accept the previously agreed deal. The theatrical of the absurdity continues. Now, Theresa May will have to return to London and declare to the Parliament that they have no choice again. More precisely, there is a choice either the "tough" Brexit following the EU condition which will commence on April 12 or the parliament accepts its version of the agreement with Brussels. In general, Theresa May's strategy has not changed in any way and in the near future, we can expect a new vote in parliament for the third in a row for the same agreement, an unprecedented case. Thus, we are entering a new and the next finish line of the entire Brexit. If it is postponed again after May 22nd, it will be just ridiculous. If the British Parliament does not approve the agreement with the EU for the third time, then it will only be necessary to cancel Brexit according to the same article 50 of the Lisbon Treaty or to leave the EU disorderly.

Nearest support levels:

S1 - 1.3123

S2 - 1.3062

S3 - 1.3000

Nearest resistance levels:

R1 - 1.3184

R2 - 1.3245

R3 - 1.3306

Trading recommendations:

The GBP/USD pair has begun a round of upward correction but already against a downward correction. Thus, you should wait for the Heiken-Ashi indicator to turn down to open new shorts with targets at 1.3062 and 1.3000.

Long positions will again become relevant not earlier than moving the MA. In this case, the bulls will again seize the initiative on the market and the first targets for the longs will be the levels of 1.3245 and 1.3306.

In addition to the technical picture should also take into account the fundamental data and the time of their release.

Explanations for illustrations:

The senior linear regression channel is the blue lines of unidirectional movement.

The junior linear channel is the purple lines of unidirectional movement.

CCI is a blue line in the indicator regression window.

The moving average (20; smoothed) is on the blue line on the price chart.

Murray levels - multi-colored horizontal stripes.

Heiken Ashi is an indicator that colors bars in blue or purple.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

EUR / USD Trading system "Regression Channels" on March 22, Euro is preparing for a new strengthening

4 hour timeframe

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Technical details:

Senior linear regression channel: direction - down.

Junior linear regression channel: direction - down.

Moving average (20; smoothed) - up.

CCI: -107.2927

The EUR/USD currency pair had a correction to the moving average line but difficult to break through, hence, the uptrend of the pair remains. On the last trading day of the week, there is no major macroeconomic publications are scheduled. Only preliminary values of indices of business activity in the services and production sectors in the USA and the Eurozone will be published. However, these indicators are unlikely to cause a strong response from market participants. In the last two days, the Eurocurrency showed quite high volatility against the background of the decisions made by the Fed and the subsequent correction. Now, everything can return to normal that is to the minimum volatility of the pair. For the euro, the positive situation right now is that she managed to stay above the moving average as the US economy still looks much more powerful than the European one, despite the Fed's refusal of further increases in the key rate, The US economy still looks much more powerful than the European one. Moreover, at least in America, there was a period when monetary policy was tightened compared to Europe where there was none. Thus, from a fundamental point of view, the advantage still remains on the side of the US dollar. From a technical point of view, the upward movement can resume now if the Heiken Ashi indicator turns up. Otherwise, traders are still waiting for a change in trend to a downward one.

Nearest support levels:

S1 - 1,1353

S2 - 1.1322

S3 - 1.1292

Nearest resistance levels:

R1 - 1.1383

R2 - 1.1414

R3 - 1.1444

Trading recommendations:

The EUR / USD currency pair may complete the correction. Thus, the targets for long positions are the levels of 1.1414 and 1.1444 that are still relevant and turning the indicator Heiken Ashi to the top will indicate completion of the downward correction.

Sell positions will become relevant not earlier than the fixation of the pair below the moving average line with target levels of 1.1322 and 1.1292, since in this case, the trend of the pair will change to downward.

In addition to the technical picture should also take into account the fundamental data and the time of their release.

Explanations for illustrations:

The senior linear regression channel is the blue lines of unidirectional movement.

The younger linear regression channel is the purple lines of unidirectional movement.

CCI - blue line in the indicator window.

The moving average (20; smoothed) is on the blue line on the price chart.

Murray levels - multi-colored horizontal stripes.

Heiken Ashi is an indicator that colors bars in blue or purple.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Wave analysis of EUR / USD for March 22. We are waiting for a couple of about 13 figures..

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Wave counting analysis:

On Thursday, March 21, trading ended for EUR / USD by 50 bp lower. Thus, the assumption about the completion of the construction of the proposed wave a now looks convincing. If this is indeed the case, the decline in instrument quotes will continue with targets located near 38.2% and 50.0% Fibonacci levels. After the completion of the construction of this wave, the resumption of the upward trend plot construction is expected. The news background remains neutral for the pair, as the Fed's decision to abandon the rate hike in 2019, although it can support the Eurocurrency, but the policy of the ECB also remains a "pigeon".

Sales targets:

1.1344 - 38.2% Fibonacci (small grid)

1.1311 - 50.0% Fibonacci (small grid)

Purchase goals:

1.1477 - 76.4% Fibonacci

General conclusions and trading recommendations:

The pair allegedly completed the construction of wave a. Now I recommend short-term sales with targets located around 1.1344 and 1.1311, which corresponds to 38.2% and 50.0% Fibonacci, based on the construction of wave b. Around the levels that suggest the completion of this wave, I recommend to re-prepare to buy a pair with targets above the mark of 1.1450.

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Control zones of NZD / USD pair on 03/22/19

Yesterday's decline allowed the pair to reach 1/2 control zone at 0.6868-0.6861, which determined the appearance of demand. To continue the growth, it is necessary to keep the price above the specified zone.

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Testing the a CZ of 0.6868-0.6861 gave the opportunity to enter the purchase. As long as the pair is trading above the zones, the probability of updating the weekly maximum is 70%. Working in this direction allows you to take about 70 points of profit. Yesterday's high is outside the current average move, which may cause the position to be postponed over the weekend.

The upward movement remains an impetus but the level of 0.6928 is a strong long-term resistance, which the pair cannot overcome this year. Profit fixations at this mark are optimal when working in a long position.

In the event that the close of trading this week occurs below the level of 0.6861, an alternative model will be developed. This will allow you to search for sales on Monday. The probability of the implementation of this model is now 30%, which makes it auxiliary.

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Daily CZ - daily control zone. The area formed by important data from the futures market that change several times a year.

Weekly CZ - weekly control zone. The area is formed by marks of important times for the market.

Monthly CZ - monthly control zone. The area is a reflection of the average volatility over the past year.

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Technical analysis of USD/CHF for March 22, 2019

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Overview:

On the one-hour chart, the USD/CHF pair continues moving in a bullish trend from the support levels of 0.9895 and 0.9948. Currently, the price is in an upward channel. This is confirmed by the RSI indicator signaling that the pair is still in a bullish trend. As the price is still above the moving average (100), immediate support is seen at 0.9948 coinciding with a golden ratio (23.6% of Fibonacci). Consequently, the first support is set at the level of 0.9948. So, the market is likely to show signs of a bullish trend around 0.9948. In other words, buy orders are recommended above the golden ratio (0.9948) with the first target at the level of 0.9983. Furthermore, if the trend is able to breakout through the first resistance level of 0.9983, we should see the pair climbing towards the double top (1.0036) to test it. It would also be wise to consider where to place a stop loss; this should be set below the second support of 0.9895.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Technical analysis of USD/CAD for March 22, 2019

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Overview:

The USD/CAD pair continues to move upwards from the level of 1.3228. Today, the first support level is currently seen at 1.3228. The price is moving in a bullish channel now. Furthermore, the price has set above the strong support at the level of 1.3228 coinciding with the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level. This support has been rejected three times confirming the veracity of an uptrend. According to the previous events, we expect the USD/CAD pair to trade between 1.3228 and 1.3328. So, the support stands at 1.3228, while daily resistance is found at 1.3328. Therefore, the market is likely to show signs of a bullish trend around 1.3228. In other words, buy orders are recommended above 1.3228 with the first target at the level of 1.3328 followed by 1.3295. However, if the USD/CAD pair fails to break through the resistance level of 1.3328 today, the price will decline further to 1.3166 -1.3200.

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Technical analysis of EUR/USD for March 22, 2019

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Overview:

The EUR/USD pair is trading around the daily pivot point (1.1393). It continued to move downwards from the level of 1.1393 to the bottom around 1.1335. This week, the first resistance level is seen at 1.1393 followed by 1.1426, while the first daily support is seen at 1.1335. Furthermore, the moving average (100) starts signaling a downward trend; therefore, the market is indicating a bearish opportunity below 1.1393. So, it will be good to sell at 1.1393 with the first target at 1.1335. The downtrend is also expected to continue towards 1.1294. The strong daily support is seen at the 1.1254 level. According to the previous events, we anticipate the EUR/USD pair to trade between 1.1393 and 1.1254 in coming hours. The price area of 1.1393 remains a significant resistance zone. Thus, the trend remains bearish as long as the level of 1.1393 is not broken. On the contrary, in case a reversal takes place, and the EUR/USD pair breaks through the resistance level of 1.1393, then a stop loss should be placed at 1.1453.

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Overview of the currency market on 03/22/2019

Again, Brexit determines investor sentiment and even the outcome of the meeting of the Bank of England go unnoticed. No one even seems to have read the final press release, which once again spoke of the risks for the British economy that will come true in the event of a "hard" withdrawal from the European Union. But all these goes that Brussels agreed to postpone the resettlement of the United Kingdom from a European hostel but not until June 30, as Teresa May requests, but until May 22. Moreover, that is only if the House of Commons accepts the proposed divorce agreement. The same option that they have twice rejected and yet, the postponement of the subjects of Her Majesty are asked in order to try to agree on the entry in the text of the agreement of the paragraphs relating to trade and the border between Ireland and Northern Ireland. Hence, the decision of Europe is essentially the unequivocal answer of the UK. One ask for a reprieve as much as you like, anyway there will be no other agreement. From this it follows that all the assurances of Jean-Claude Juncker that in the shortest possible time the trade issues will be agreed but supposedly due to lack of time. This will happen only after signing the agreement but these are words about nothing. After all, the United Kingdom is asking for a postponement so that the head of the European Commission can fulfill his promise, and here it is. Hence, it is precisely the "hard" version of Brexit that is now becoming the most realistic scenario, and, given the complete lack of understanding of how this affects not only the United Kingdom but also in Europe. Everything is clear with it and it is not surprising that pound and the single European currency confidently went down.

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Of course, it wasn't one of them that it showed a slowdown. Expected slowdowns of 36 thousand instead of 10 thousand. In particular, it was repeated, it was repeated, by 27 thousand. Therefore, it's not even strange to notice the situation with Brexit and its postponement. Another thing is that it shouldn't be so strong.

Today, the Preliminary data on business indices are coming out in the United States and the forecasts are rather optimistic. Hence, if the index of business activity in the services sector should remain unchanged, then the production index can grow from 53.0 to 53.6. Thus, the composite index of business activity should increase from 55.5 to 55.6. It is also expected that sales of housing in the secondary market will grow by 2.2%.

In Europe, the preliminary data on business activity indices are published as well. Although the composite index should grow from 51.9 to 52.0, this should happen only due to an increase in the production index from 49.3 to 49.5. The index of business activity in the services sector is expected to drop from 52.8 to 52.7. Nevertheless, the growth of the composite index will have a beneficial effect on investor sentiment and given the similar tone of output data in both Europe and the United States, the single European currency is likely to remain around 1.1375. The market needs to take a breath after the recent events.

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In theory, the pound should somewhat weaken under the pressure of US statistics, especially since there is no data in the UK. However, after such a sharp increase and the subsequent decline, market participants need to recover. Thus, similar to the single European currency, the pound will remain in place around 1.3125.

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Trading recommendations for the GBPUSD currency pair - prospects for further movement

For the last trading day, the currency pair Pound / Dollar showed ultra-high volatility of 222 points, as a result of drawing out pulsed candles on the market. From the point of view of technical analysis, we continue to observe the feast of speculators, where the quote in a matter of hours, has managed to accelerate from the accumulation of 1.3220 in the direction of the psychological level of 1.3000, after which it instantly forms a rollback on overheating. Naturally, this kind of turbulence was provoked against the information and news background, and now in order. We begin with a key event, the European Union agreed to postpone Brexit, and this is a "victory". Sarcasm, yes, this is it, the leaders of 27 EU countries agreed on a delay and a new release date on May 22, but there is a nuance. The British parliament must approve the deal, otherwise on April 12, Brexit will happen without a deal. Now, we understand why there was such a drain of the English currency, since the risk of a hard Brexit has grown up at times. At the same time, yesterday, there was a meeting of the Bank of England, where, naturally, the rate was left at the same level, 0.75%. What is more interesting is the statement made by the head of the regulator Mark Carney: "The forecast for the economy will continue to depend significantly on the nature and timing of leaving the EU. " Mark, in his speech, duplicated fears if Britain leaves the EU without a deal, since a sharp drop in pound sterling can create inflationary pressure in addition to a wide economic shock. Let me remind you that yesterday, the UK retail sales data also went out, where they waited for a decline from 4.2% to 3.3%. As a result, it received 4.0%, but since there was a strong negative information background, this positive news went nowhere.

Today, in terms of the economic calendar, we are waiting for statistics from the United States regarding sales in the secondary market, where growth is expected from 4.94M to 5.10M.

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The upcoming trading week in terms of the economic calendar is rather calm compared to last week. At the same time, traders are waiting for another vote in the British Parliament regarding an agreement that will decide the fate of the postponement.

Tuesday

United States 15:30 MSK - Number of building permits issued (Feb): Prev. 1,345M ---> Forecast 1,320M

United States 15:30 MSK - The volume of construction of new homes (Feb): Prev. 1.230M ---> Forecast of 1.235M

Thursday

United States 15:30 MSK - GDP (q / q) (Q4): Prev. 2.6% ---> Forecast 2.6%

United States 17:00 MSK - The index of pending sales in the real estate market (m / m) (Feb): Prev. 4.6% ---> Forecast 0.4%

Friday

United Kingdom 12:30 MSK - GDP (q / q) (Q4): Prev. 1.3%

United States 17:00 MSK - Sales of new housing (Feb): Prev. 607K ---> 617K forecast

These are preliminary and subject to change.

Further development

Analyzing the current trading chart, we see a great pullback / correction after a recent rally, where the quote reached the value of 1.3150, after which the attenuation process started in the form of double-digit doji-type candles. It is likely to assume that the descending interest will continue in the medium term, but there are many reasons for this.

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Based on the available data, it is possible to decompose a number of variations. Let's consider them:

- Traders considered buying positions at the moment of price approaching the psychological level of 1.3000. Now, I think, everyone has already fixed it. If we consider long positions, it is in the case of price fixing higher than 1.3180.

- Traders consider selling positions at a price lower than 1.3115.

Indicator Analysis

Analyzing a different sector of timeframes (TF), we see that there is interest in the general market background in the short, intraday and medium term.

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Weekly volatility / Measurement of volatility: Month; Quarter; Year

Measurement of volatility reflects the average daily fluctuation, with the calculation for the Month / Quarter / Year.

(March 22 was based on the time of publication of the article)

The current time volatility is 56 points. It is likely to assume that volatility will remain high due to ambiguity in the information background.

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Key levels

Zones of resistance: 1,3200 *; 1,3300 **; 1.3440; 1.3580 *; 1.3700

Support areas: 1.3000 ** (1.3000 / 1.3050); 1.2920 *; 1.2770 (1.2720 / 1.2770) **; 1.2620; 1.2500 *; 1.2350 **.

* Periodic level

** Range Level

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Wave analysis of GBP / USD for March 22. The situation around Brexit gets confusing more and more.

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Wave counting analysis:

On March 21, the GBP / USD pair fell by 80 basis points (bp). This is the general reaction to the meetings of the Fed and the Bank of England, as well as to the agreed transfer of Brexit from March 29 to May 22. The wave pattern due to the mass of events, mainly around Brexit, is confusing, but it can get an even more complex as it looks. Since, as before, no one knows how the three-year epic will end with the release of Great Britain from the jurisdiction of Brussels. After all, everything still depends on the British Parliament, which must accept agreements with the EU, which it has already blocked twice. Thus, now, I recommend caution first.

Purchase goals:

1.3350 - 100.0% Fibonacci

1.3454 - 127.2% Fibonacci

Sales targets:

1.2961 - 0.0% Fibonacci

General conclusions and trading recommendations:

The wave pattern allows for the construction of an upward wave with targets located near the estimated marks of 1.3350 and 1.3454, which corresponds to 100.0% and 127.2% of Fibonacci. However, the current wave counting is very confusing because of the ambiguous news background. As long as there is no clarity on the Brexit issue, the tool can continue to build ambiguous wave structures.

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Burning Forecast 03/22/2019

On Wednesday, the euro sharply grew above the mark of 1.1425 on the Federal Reserve's decisions, which set an upward trend.

However, on Thursday, the euro fell under a sharp selling, now it almost completely blocked the environment's growth.

But by Friday morning, we see slow growth.

A continuation of the trend is still possible.

The reason for the euro's fall is probably the Brexit theme's unexpected return to the market.

We keep buying from 1.1340 - but stop at a breakeven, the euro passing below 1.1340 cancels the trend.

Buy from 1.1450.

Sell from 1.1175.

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Trading Plan 03/22/2019

The Federal Reserve started the trend against the dollar.

However, Brexit unexpectedly returned to the scene.

Iron Lady Theresa May is completely tireless in her perseverance - she received a reprieve from the EU only until May 22 - but under strict conditions - to hold an agreement with the EU through Parliament before April 1. The opinion is unrealistic. But there will be another vote.

The closing of the week is important for the euro.

We keep buying from 1.1340 - but we close positions after a breakthrough of 1.1340.

Buy from 1.1450.

Selling from 1.1175.

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GBP/USD: plan for the European session on March 22. EU leaders rejected the postponement of Brexit from March 29 to June

To open long positions on GBP/USD you need:

Yesterday, the pound flew into the abyss after EU leaders rejected Theresa May's proposal to postpone the UK's release date to 30 June. At the moment, buyers need to stay above the support level of 1.3120, and the formation of a false breakdown in that area will be a signal to open long positions. A more interesting area for bulls will be the level of 1.3068, where you can buy GBP/USD immediately to rebound. The main task will be to return and consolidate above the resistance of 1.3173, which will lead to an update of the high near 1.3222, where I recommend to lock in the profit.

To open short positions on GBP/USD you need:

Sellers of the pound will try to form a false breakdown at the resistance area of 1.3173, which will be the first signal to sell the pound, but the main goal will be a breakout and consolidation below the support of 1.3120, which will lead to selling the GBP/USD to the low of 1.3068 and 1.3004, where I recommend to take profit. With growth scenarios above 1.3173, good resistance levels can be seen in the area of 1.3222 and 1.3266, from where you can open short positions immediately to a rebound.

Indicator signals:

Moving averages

Trading is conducted below the 30-day and 50-day moving averages, which indicates the bearish nature of the market.

Bollinger bands

In case of an attempt to increase the pound's rate, the upward potential of the Bollinger Bands indicator will be limited to around 1.3175. In case the pound decreases, support will be provided by the lower limit in the area of 1.3050.

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Description of indicators

  • MA (moving average) 50 days - yellow
  • MA (moving average) 30 days - green
  • MACD: fast EMA 12, slow EMA 26, SMA 9
  • Bollinger Bands 20
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Control zones EURUSD 03/22/19

Yesterday's fall stopped at the NKZ 1/2 1.1356-1.1346. This zone is decisive. As long as the pair is trading above it, the upward movement will remain a momentum. The close of yesterday's trading took place higher, so purchases that were opened in this zone remain relevant. The first target of growth is the weekly high, a test which will allow you to convert the deal to breakeven and lock in most of it

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For those who use patterns for making decisions, it will be possible to get more favorable prices for buying if yesterday's low is updated and a pattern of false breakdown is formed.

An alternative model will be developed if the current week closes below 1.1346. This will open the way for a fall to the weekly KZ of 1.1264-1.1246. Selling will come forward next week. The probability of a descending model does not exceed 30% so far, which makes it a support.

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Daily KZ - daily control zone. The zone formed by important data from the futures market, which change several times a year.

Weekly KZ - weekly control zone. The zone formed by the important marks of the futures market, which change several times a year.

Monthly KZ - monthly control zone. The zone, which is a reflection of the average volatility over the past year.

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Indicator analysis. Daily review on March 22, 2019 for the pair GBP / USD

Trend analysis (Fig. 1).

On Friday, there is a high probability of moving up, after testing the support line 1.3023 (yellow thin line). The first upper target 1.3227 is the upper fractal.

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Fig. 1 (daily schedule).

Comprehensive analysis:

- indicator analysis - down;

- Fibonacci levels - up;

- volumes - up;

- candlestick analysis - up;

- trend analysis - up;

- Bollinger lines - up;

- weekly schedule - up.

General conclusion:

On Friday, there is a high probability of moving up, after testing the support line 1.3023 (yellow thin line). The first upper target 1.3227 is the upper fractal.

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Indicator analysis. Daily review on March 22, 2019 for the pair EUR / USD

Trend analysis (Fig. 1).

On Friday, the price may continue to move upwards. The first upper target of 1.1422 is the pullback level of 61.8% (blue dotted line).

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Fig. 1 (daily schedule).

Comprehensive analysis:

- indicator analysis - up;

- Fibonacci levels - up;

- volumes - up;

- candlestick analysis - down;

- trend analysis - up;

- Bollinger lines - up;

- weekly schedule - up.

General conclusion:

On Friday, the price may continue to move upwards. The first upper target of 1.1422 is the pullback level of 61.8% (blue dotted line).

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GBP / USD: "passing" meeting of the Bank of England and zugzwang for Theresa May

The March meeting of the Bank of England escaped the attention of traders. Pound completely ignored this event, focusing on the prospects of Brexit. On the other hand, the English regulator also did not give cause for any concern which goes for absolutely "passing" meeting, without any intelligible hints on further actions. Nevertheless, the main points should be noted - because if the epic "divorce process" is completed (there is such a probability), then the focus of attention of gbp / usd traders will return to the prospects of the monetary policy of the British Central Bank.

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Actually, this fact is recognized by the regulator itself. According to Mark Carney, the results of Brexit can cause both tightening and easing of monetary policy - although the corresponding decision will not be automatically made. By and large, last year the head of the Bank of England "tied" a possible change in the parameters of monetary policy with Brexit. If we summarize all his statements on this subject, then we can conclude: with a "hard" scenario, the regulator will not necessarily reduce the rate - it will continue to monitor the dynamics of economic indicators. With a "soft" Brexit, the Central Bank is more likely to increase the rate - inflation is still at high values, allowing regulator members to make an appropriate decision. However, when it comes to extending the negotiation process, this simple algorithm of actions is relevant and at the moment.

Therefore, the market did not pay enough attention to the outcome of the meeting: everything is quite predictable. In my opinion, it is necessary to single out the three main theses of the March meeting. First, the regulator warned that employment growth in the near future could slow down significantly. Obviously, in this way, the Central Bank reacted to the latest release on the labor market: while unemployment fell, the number of applications for unemployment benefits jumped to 20 thousand (although the forecast was at 13 thousand). Whether these figures are a manifestation of the seasonal factor or whether we are dealing with a negative trend - time will tell. But in my opinion, there is no cause for concern, given the dynamics of growth in wages.

The second important thesis is an assessment of inflation growth. According to the Central Bank, core inflation is at an acceptable level and corresponds to the forecast. This fact corresponds to the general conclusion of the members of the regulator: a gradual and limited tightening of the "may be necessary" policy. In other words, the Bank of England is ready to raise the rate this year, and key indicators of the economy allow it to be done, and the regulator's hands are "tied" only by a question of Brexit. That is why the events are viewed by the market through the prism of the prospects for the monetary policy of Britain.

In the meantime, the political confrontation between Brussels and London reaches its apogee. By and large, Teresa May herself drove into a state of zugzwang - when each subsequent move worsens the overall position of the player. An official statement was released today following a meeting of heads of state and government of the EU countries. Yesterday's rumors were fully confirmed: EU leaders agreed to postpone the UK withdrawal from the Alliance - but, firstly, only until May 22, and secondly, if only the British House of Commons approves the Brexit agreement next week. Otherwise - exit March 29 without any deal.

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The piquancy of the situation lies within the fact that the British parliamentarians have already managed to reject the deal and the option to exit without a deal. Moreover, May currently cannot bring the draft agreement to a second vote, since the Speaker of the House of Commons blocked this possibility, referring to the provisions of the convention 400 years ago.

In other words, the script is clearly played out not by Theresa May's notes. Apparently, the British Prime Minister did not expect such a harsh reaction from the French requesting for the postponement of the X-hour. However, now, the British have fallen into the "legislative trap", which they, in fact, built themselves. In the coming days, the focus of market attention will again shift to London, where the fate of Brexit will be decided once again.

Hypothetically, deputies have the opportunity by vote to ignore the rule of the above convention voiced by the Speaker of the House of Commons. But for this, the prime minister needs to convince his party members and unionists of the appropriate need. According to the results of the last vote, more than 70 conservatives are against the deal in their current form. Whether Theresa May can "lure" them to her side, given the current situation, is an open question. But, it is precisely on the resolution of this issue that the fate of Brexit and the fate of the British currency depend on.

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AUD / USD Forecast for March 22, 2019

AUD / USD

Under a strong but short-term weakening of the American dollar, the "Australian" made an attempt to test the upper limit of the price channel, but the technical resistance turned out to be very strong, and he quickly returned to these resistances - the balance lines and Kruzenshtern daily scale. On the four-hour chart, the price is still above these indicator lines, but the Marlin oscillator signals a strong downward trend. The price is now trying to enter the range of accumulation from above (0.7100). Leaving the price below the lower limit of this range opens the target of 0.6940 - support for the nested line in the daily price channel. Further, perhaps, 0.6813.

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GBP / USD Forecast for March 22, 2019

GBP / USD

At yesterday's summit, the European Union decided to accept the proposal of the British Prime Minister Theresa May to delay the launch of Brexit for 3 months, but set a counter condition for London to accept the draft Mei-EU agreement until March 29, which the British parliament has already rejected twice. The danger of a country withdrawing from the EU without a deal became as acute as possible. At the moment, the pound lost more than 180 points, but was kept by the Kruzenshtern line of the daily chart at 1.3000. On the daily graph, a double divergence is fully formed, but the price is still above the balance lines and Kruzenshtern. On the four-hour chart, the signal line of the oscillator is marlin in the drop zone, the price is below the indicator lines. We are waiting for prices to go under 1.3000 with a further decline to 1.2904 and, as we believe, to 1.2530.

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Technical analysis of EUR/USD for 22/03/2019

Technical market overview:

The EUR/USD pair has broken above the technical resistance zone between the levels of 1.1406 - 1.1419, but reversed suddenly and tested the local technical support at the level of 1.1361 with a low at 1.1343. The momentum remains positive, but the market conditions are now overbought and if there is no impulsive move higher above the level of 1.1447, the bears might take the control over the market and push the prices lower again. The next technical support is seen at the level of 1.1294.

Weekly Pivot Points:

WR3 - 1.1502

WR2 - 1.1422

WR1 - 1.1372

Weekly Pivot - 1.1287

WS1 - 1.1251

WS2 - 1.1168

WS3 - 1.1131

Trading recommendations:

The recent news driven a spike up has blurred the picture and the bearish bias has been invalidated as the price might be making another leg up in the bigger corrective move. As long as the level of 1.1343 is not clearly violated again, global investors should open long orders during the local pullbacks.

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Fundamental Analysis of EUR/AUD for March 22, 2019

EUR/AUD has been quite volatile and corrective at the edge of 1.60. The price is expected to make a correctional climb supported by bullish momentum.

EUR managed to sustain momentum over AUD despite weak economic reports from the eurozone and an economic slowdown ahead of the UK departure from the EU. Though there are certain talks above delaying BREXIT beyond June 30, 2019, the EU leaders have not confirmed the delay yet that may lead to a no-deal Brexit if no decision is made by the March 29th, 2019. Additionally, ECB President Mario Draghi heavily criticized the outcome of political negotiations reached by the EU policymakers in March. According to Draghi, changes in the EU national governments and the bloc's parliament distort the original proposal and interfere the independent exercise of ECB's monetary policy.

Today French Flash Services PMI report is going to be published which is expected to increase to 50.6 from the previous figure of 50.2 and German Flash Manufacturing PMI is expected to increase to 48.0 from the previous figure of 47.6.

On the other hand, the Australian economy is facing economic headwinds which have been proved by weak economic reports and dovish policy statements from the RBA with certain optimistic future plans. These events did not quite help AUD to gain impulsive momentum over EUR. Australian Employment Change report was published with a significant decrease to 4.6k from the previous figure of 38.3k which was expected to be at 14.8k and an unemployment rate showed a positive reading with a decline to 4.9% instead of the flat figure of 5.0% in the forecast. According to the RBA, Australia's house prices are not the only factor affecting the economy but there are other obstacles as well. There are chances for rate cuts in Australia if economic growth and inflation expectations remain solid. Apart from these factors, there are other criteria like income, employment, and consumption that could turn weighty reasons for the interest rate cut decision. Today, Australia's Flash Manufacturing PMI report was published with a drop to 52.0 from the previous figure of 52.9 and Flash Services PMI edged up to 48.8 from the previous figure of 48.7.

Meanwhile, EUR has been struggling for gains ahead of BREXIT on the back of an economic slowdown. On the other hand, AUD has been hurt by the Employment Change report and a rate cut possibility. These negatives are responsible for further correction and volatility in the pair in the coming days.

Now let us look at the technical view. The price formed a Pennant pattern at the edge of 1.60 support area from where the price is expected to correct itself aiming to climb higher with a target towards 0.6150 resistance area in the coming days. As the price remains above 1.5950 area, the bullish bias is expected to continue further.

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Technical analysis of GBP/USD for 22/03/2019

Technical market overview:

The GBP/USD pair has moved lower and hit the technical support at the level of 1.3012. The bounce after the hit was shallow and the price went up only to hit the level of 1.3155, mainly due to the oversold market conditions. Nevertheless, an event the move down did not solve the problem of consolidation as any of the important levels was violated and the price returned to the mean. The momentum remains weak and negative, so the market might resume its recent down move and test the level of 1.3012 or 1.3000 again. Any breakout lower will be a game-changing move for the whole market.

Weekly Pivot Points:

WR3 - 1.3917

WR2 - 1.3636

WR1 - 1.3473

Weekly Pivot - 1.3224

WS1 - 1.3055

WS2 - 1.2794

WS3 - 1.2638

Trading recommendations:

The market is still in a consolidation phase, so it will be better to wait for a trading setup after the consolidation terminates. The best one would be a breakout in either direction, but due to the fact that the trend is still up, traders should prefer to buy in the local corrections and wait for the market to resume the up move. Only a sustained breakout below the level of 1.2959 would invalidate the short-term bullish bias and deepen the correction.

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GBP / USD: Brexit will be extended until May 22?

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In the evening, the leaders of the countries of the European Union agreed to postpone the release of the UK from the EU for several weeks.

"Brussels is ready to provide London with a delay until May 22, if the divorce agreement is approved by the British Parliament next week. Otherwise, the postponement will last only until April 12, " based on the final communique of the EU summit.

"Up until this date, April 12, all options for the UK will remain open. The government of the country can still make a choice between the deal, its absence, the long postponement of the Brexit date or the withdrawal of the application for withdrawal from the alliance, " said European Council President Donald Tusk.

The British currency has responded to this news growth, departing from session lows.

Interestingly, the GBP / USD pair once again pushed away from an important support level, the breakdown of which opens the way to decline for several figures at once.

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Many experts are now asking themselves: if British politicians have not been able to agree so many times, what will change in the allotted few weeks?

"The situation in the form in which it is now, still suggests that the" hard "Brexit may occur," - said currency strategies Rabobank.

According to a consensus forecast of economists recently surveyed by Bloomberg, the UK's withdrawal from the EU without an agreement could lead to a drop in the pound sterling rate by 8% from current levels. The implementation of such scenario implies a reduction is in GBP / USD to 1.20.

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Analysis of the divergence of EUR / USD for March 22. Bearish divergence puts pressure on euro positions

4h

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On the 4-hour chart, the EUR / USD pair performed a reversal in favor of the American currency and consolidation under the corrective level of 50.0% - 1.1374. As a result, on March 22 the process of falling quotations can be continued in the direction of the next correction level of 38.2% - 1.1328. Maturing divergences in the current chart are not observed in any indicator. On the other hand, fixing the pair above the Fibo level of 50.0% will work in favor of the EU currency and some growth in the direction of the 61.8% correction level - 1.1420.

The Fibo grid was built on extremes from January 10, 2019 and March 7, 2019.

Daily

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On the 24-hour chart, after fixing the quotes above the Fibo level 127.2% - 1.1285, the growth process continues in the direction of the correction level 100.0% - 1.1553. The bearish divergence of the CCI indicator allows traders to expect a reversal in favor of the US dollar and a return to the Fibo level of 127.2%. Meanwhile, fixing quotes under the correction level of 127.2% will increase the chances of the pair to further fall in the direction of the next correction level of 161.8% - 1.0941.

The Fib net is built on extremums from November 7, 2017 and February 16, 2018.

Recommendations to traders:

Purchases of the EUR / USD pair can be made with the target of 1.1420, if the pair closes above the level of 1.1374, and a Stop Loss order under the correction level of 50.0%.

Sales of the EUR / USD pair can be carried out with the target of 1.1328, if the pair disconnects from the level of 1.1374, and with a Stop Loss order above the Fibo level of 50.0%.

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Elliott Wave analysis of Ethereum for 22/03/2019

Technical market overview:

The trendline breakout at the ETH/USD market turned out to be a false breakout with a high at the level of 138.92 and since then the market got back under the trendline and break through the technical support at the level of 134.68. The new local low was made at the level of 131.02 and currently, the price is trying to test the level of 134.68 from below. Nevertheless, the target for the unfolding wave (c) is still seen at the level of 123.36.

Weekly Pivot Points:

WR3 - 162.50

WR2 - 153.11

WR1 - 146.18

Weekly Pivot - 134.66

WS1 - 129.36

WS2 - 120.05

WS3 - 112.99

Trading recommendations:

The first a target at the level of 134.68 has been hit, so now is time for the level of 127.85 to be tested as well. However, the final take profit level is still seen at 123.36 or slightly below, so it might be worth to wait for this level to be hit later.

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Technical analysis for EUR/USD for March 22, 2019

EURUSD has pulled back towards 1.1350 as a back test as expected by our previous analysis. This is the higher low bulls need to see. Price should start from current levels its next leg up above 1.14-1.1450 otherwise there is a danger of a fake break out and a new wave down towards 1.12.

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Red line - resistance broken now support

Green line - support

Black lines - expected path

Blue line - RSI resistance (broken)

EUR/USD has broken the red trend line resistance and is back testing it from above. This red trend line is now support. If trend has reversed to the upside then price should bounce off the red trend line to new highs. If this was a fake breakout then we should expect a shallow bounce and new lows below 1.1360. Support is at 1.1360-1.1350 and resistance at 1.1415. A four hour close above 1.1415 would be a bullish sign for EUR/USD and will increase the chances of seeing 1.15 dramatically.

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The growth in demand for liquidity supported the dollar

Markets were trading higher on Thursday amid a dovish change in the Fed's policy, however, the noticeable deterioration in the prospects for US economic growth until the end of 2019 will hold back the strengthening of the dollar in the coming months.

EURUSD

The eurozone looks fairly confident against the background of the Federal Reserve's declining forecasts, this confidence is based both on the recovery of business activity that began after the failure of 2018 and on quite good data on household spending, which indicate an increase in private consumption and steady domestic demand.

Today, the euro continues to be a favorite against the dollar, a return to the boundary of the channel that was attacked the day before is technically justified, there is not much to further reduce the grounds, the euro will try to return to the zone of 1.1420/30 with an eye to attack 1.1443.

GBPUSD

At the end of its meeting on Thursday, the Bank of England kept, as expected, the monetary policy unchanged. All 9 members of the Cabinet voted unanimously for the preservation of the current rate level of 0.75%, since amid the ongoing situation of uncertainty regarding Brexit, one should not expect any steps from the Bank of England to change the status quo.

The Bank of England recognizes that the UK's exit from the EU without a deal will strike a blow to the country's economy, resulting in a further investment outcome and a deterioration in the labor market. In its study, audit company EY concluded that the volume of investments that left Great Britain, exceeded a trillion pounds, and the process continues to develop.

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EU leaders are also tough. Ahead of the beginning of the EU summit on Thursday, the head of the European Commission, Jean-Claude Juncker, said that if the agreement is not approved in Parliament, then another summit will have to be convened, and the matter can no longer be delayed. Theresa May requested a postponement until June 30, but most EU leaders want to resolve the issue more quickly and exclude the UK from participating in the European Parliament elections on May 23-26. May's attempt to bargain at least for some kind of indulgence in order to get an opportunity to conduct a deal through Parliament nevertheless suffers an expected collapse, and the probability of leaving with its head held high, but without an agreement at all, is growing.

Leaving without a deal would mean a loss of unrestricted access to the EU market for Britain, and they will have to switch to WTO conditions, that is, input tariffs will increase significantly, which will reduce the profitability of the business and speed up the outcome of capital.

Thus, the reprieve for the pound is clearly temporary. The period of uncertainty will not last long; the Bank of England may be able to raise the rate only after prospects for the labor market and GDP growth become clear, which will not happen until Brexit gets real content. In these conditions, the pound will unlikely be able to resume growth, the prospect of a decline to the support zone of 1.2960/65 is more likely with high chances to update the local low.

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Elliott Wave analysis of Bitcoin for 22/03/2019

Technical market overview:

The BTC/USD pair has completed the wave (b) of the corrective move up at the level of $4,110 and now is unfolding wave (c) to the downside as anticipated. The technical support at the level of $3,981 has been tested and the market bounced slightly towards the level of $4,000, but no momentum was behind this move up. If the level of $3,981 will be broken again, the next target is seen at $3,813. Any price movement above the level of $4,122 will invalidate the current bearish outlook and will make the spike to the level of $4,246 more possible.

Weekly Pivot Points:

WR3 - $4,456

WR2 - $4,282

WR1 - $4,180

Weekly Pivot - $4,000

WS1 - $3,897

WS2 - $3,712

WS3 - $3,614

Trading recommendations:

Due to the unfinished corrective cycle in the wave (c), the sell orders should be placed as close as possible to the level of $4,101 with a protective stop loss above the level of $4,122. Any breakout above this level invalidates the bearish outlook, but for now, the target is seen at the level of $3,813.

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BITCOIN Analysis for March 22, 2019

Bitcoin's volatility strikes again under impulsive bearish pressure taking the price below $4,000 with a daily close. The price turned the bias upside down wiping out bulls out of the way. At present, the price is trading at the edge of $4,000 again under bearish pressure.

Bitcoin failed to sustain the non-volatile bullish momentum it was creating along the way, being carried by the dynamic level of 20 EMA. The price fell below $4,000 with a 1-hour impulsive bearish candle which engulfed the previous bullish progression of last few days. Currently the price is again holding at the edge of $4,000 but with certain bearish momentum which is expected to trigger a correctional decline before pushing higher above $4,000 in the coming days. As the price remains above $3,800-80 support area, the impulsive bullish pressure with an expectation to push above $4,000 will be unchanged.

SUPPORT: 3,500-600, 3,800-80

RESISTANCE: 4,000, 4,250

BIAS: BULLISH

MOMENTUM: VOLATILE

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Technical analysis for Gold for March 22, 2019

Gold price remains in a short-term bullish trend from early March and the $1,280 area. Price continues to make higher highs and higher lows reaching yesterday important Fibonacci resistance and getting rejected.

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Blue line - support trend line

Red line - bearish divergence

Gold price continues to trade above $1,300 and this in favor of the bulls. Price continues to make higher highs and higher lows and this is also in favor of the bulls. Bulls want to continue to see price above the blue trend line support and break above the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement resistance where it got rejected yesterday. Bears on the other hand since $1,280-90 were warned for a possible bounce towards $1,310-20 area. This has unfolded and price got rejected at the Fibonacci resistance. Bears now want to see price break the blue trend line support at $1,304-5. A weekly close towards $1,300 or even better below it would be ideal for bears. Gold price is near important Fibonacci resistance. I prefer to stay neutral at current levels because the price has risen more than $40 in the last month and there is a danger of a bearish reversal from current resistance.

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