BITCOIN Analysis for April 3, 2018

Bitcoin has been quite impulsive amid bullish pressure today which led the price to reside above $7,000 currently after the recent impulsive bearish pressure. After the recent fluctuation of price below $8,500, at present some bulls are pushing the market higher which explains a long-awaited retracement before bears push the price much lower. The overall crypto market is currently looking very slow and market sentiment is still indecisive. As for the current scenario, the price is expected to proceed higher towards $8,000 price area where the dynamic level of 20 EMA is currently residing. A rejection off the dynamic level may lead to further bearish pressure in the market with a target towards $5,500. On the other hand, a bullish journey towards $8,500 is expected to be quite corrective and slow after breaking above $8,000 with a daily close. As the price remains below $8,500, the bearish bias is expected to continue.

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Fundamental Analysis of EUR/JPY for April 3, 2018

EUR/JPY has been in a correctional phase with high volatility, trading between 129.50 and 132.00. The pair is following a downward bias as JPY has been outperforming EUR recently with better economic data. The price is below the 132.00 resistance area. This week, JPY started with downbeat economic reports like Tankan Manufacturing Index decreasing to 24 from the previous figure of 26 and Tankan Non-Manufacturing Index also decreasing to 23 from the previous figure of 25. Despite soft economic reports, JPY managed to sustain the bearish bias in the pair. Besides, the pair is expected to proceed lower in the coming days. Today, Japan released a Monetary Base report which showed a decrease to 9.1% from the previous value of 9.4% which was expected to increase to 9.6%. Today, the weak economic report capped the growth of JPY but it was not as impulsive as a totally counter move to the overall bearish bias. On the other hand, today German Retail Sales report was published with a decrease to -0.7% from the previous negative value of -0.3% which was expected to increase to 0.7%. As for the current scenario, EUR failed to provide a push needed to create the impulsive bullish pressure in the pair. Thus, JPY is expected to dominate further in the short term.

Now let us look at the technical view. The price is currently holding below 132.00 price area with a bearish squeeze with confluence to the dynamic level of 20 EMA. The price is currently expected to proceed lower towards 129.50 later this week from where a break below or bounce with a daily close will lead to upcoming trading decision in this pair. As the price remains below 132.00 price area, further bearish pressure is expected.

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Daily analysis of Gold for April 03, 2018

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Overview

The Gold price provided clear positive trades yesterday to breach 1335.40 level and settles above it, which reactivates the bullish trend scenario on the intraday and short term basis, targeting visiting the recently recorded top at 1365.97 as a first main station. Therefore, we will be waiting for positive trading for today supported by the EMA50 unless breaking 1335.40 level and holding below it, as breaking this level will push the price to visit 38.2% Fibonacci correction level at 1316.48 again. The expected trading range for today is between 1325.00 support and 1350.00 resistance.

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Daily analysis of Silver for April 03, 2018

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Overview

The Silver price continues to move inside the sideways range that its lines represented by 16.15 support and 16.80 resistance, and the price is affected by stochastic positivity to show some rise now, while the EMA50 forms an obstacle against the price attempts to rise. In general, the sideways range will remain dominant on the intraday trading until the price manages to breach one of the above-mentioned levels, reminding you that breaching 16.80 will push the price to achieve gains that start at 17.43 mainly, while breaking 16.15 support will force the price to visit 15.49 before any new attempt to recover. The expected trading range for today is between 16.40 support and 16.70 resistance.

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Global macro overview for 03/04/2018

Sources in the White House say that a preliminary agreement on the new shape of the NAFTA agreement may be published already during the Summit of the Americas scheduled for next week, which will start on April 13 in Peru. White House spokeswoman Natalie Strom said that the negotiation process is going quite quickly and the NAFTA countries will be ready on time. In turn, trade advisor Peter Navarro, when asked about the reasons for such a rush, cited the argument related to the upcoming presidential and parliamentary elections in Mexico (July). Nevertheless, President Trump on Twitter again criticized the issue of excessive immigration of Mexicans to the US.

The most difficult issues in the NAFTA talks with Mexico and Canada concern US demands on automotive trade and dispute settlement systems. Linking the future of the 24-year-old trade deal to Trump's border wall plan has never been among US negotiating objectives.

Let's now take a look at the Crude Oil technical picture at the H4 time frame before the agreement will take place. The market has dropped below the level of 63.71 and made a local low at the level of 62.80 before bouncing a little in order to test the 63.71 resistance. The next target for bears is seen at the level of 62.53 - 62.43 area and breakout below this level will open the road towards the level of 59.93.

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Global macro overview for 03/04/2018

Rapidly changing moods and increased volatility are becoming a permanent market element recently. The US Dollar is not able to become their strong and unambiguous beneficiary due to the White House policy, fears of a return of a strong double deficit and fear of trade wars. In the coming months, analysts expect a maintaining of the current range of fluctuations by the EUR/USD pair. The enthusiasm for the euro is dampened primarily by the weakening of inflationary trends in the euro area and the likely achievement of the peak by the strength of economic growth in 2018. The space for appreciation is also limited by the extremely extended long speculative position. At the same time, it should be quite immune to adjustments due to the ECB's tightening outlook.

Next days are primarily waiting for a report from the US labor market, which may help revive hopes for a more restrictive Federal Reserve policy. Nevertheless, the anticipated three interest rate hikes this year how much more chances to materialize, then a sudden abandon of the current monetary path by FED.

Let's now take a look at the EUR/USD technical picture at the H4 time frame. The market failed to rally higher above the level of 1.2345 and currently is testing the short-term technical support at the level of 1.2282. Any violation of this level would lead to the drop towards the next technical support at the level of 1.2238 or even 1.2163, which is the key technical support for this market.

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Technical analysis of NZD/USD for April 03, 2018

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Overview:

Pivot point is seen at the point of 0.7227.

The NZD/USD pair continued moving upwards from the level of 0.7209. The pair rose from the level of 0.7209 to the top around 0.7245.

Today, the first support level is seen at 0.7209 followed by 0.7187, while daily resistance is seen at 0.7270. According to the previous events, the NZD/USD pair is still moving between the levels of 0.7227 and 0.7302; for that we expect a range of 75 pips in coming hours.

This would suggest a bullish market because the RSI indicator is still in a positive area and does not show any trend-reversal signs.

Furthermore, if the trend is able to break out through the first resistance level of 0.7270, we should see the pair climbing towards the double top (0.7302) to test it.

On the other hand, if a breakout takes place at the support level of 0.7209, then this scenario may become invalidated. Remember to place a stop loss; it should be set below the second support of 0.7180.

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Technical analysis of USD/CHF for April 03, 2018

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Overview:

The USD/CHF didn't make significant movement yesterday. There are no changes in my technical outlook. The bias remains bullish in the nearest term testing 0.9625 or higher. The USD/CHF pair will continue to rise from the level of 0.9525. The support is found at the level of 0.9525, which represents the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level. The price is likely to form a double bottom. Today, the major support is seen at 0.9525, while the immediate resistance is found at 0.9583. Accordingly, the USD/CHF pair is showing signs of strength following a breakout of a high at 0.9583. So, buy above the level of 0.9583 with the first target at 0.9605 in order to test the daily resistance 1 and move further to 0.9625. Besides, the level of 0.9625 is a good place to take profit because it will form a new double top. Amid the previous events, the pair is still in an uptrend; for that we expect the USD/CHF pair to climb from 0.9525 to 0.9625 today. On the other hand, in case a reversal takes place and the USD/CHF pair breaks through the support level of 0.9525, a further decline to 0.9450 can occur, which would indicate a bearish market.

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Bitcoin analysis for April 03, 2018

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Bitcoin (BTC) has been trading upwards. The price tested the level of $7.370. Over the past few weeks, the bitcoin cash (BCH) community and developers have been discussing 'zero-confirmation' or 'instant transactions.' Many BCH supporters believe if the concept was broadly accepted, payments and transaction speed would be extremely fast bringing a significant competitive edge to the BCH. The technical picture looks bullish.

Trading recommendations:

According to the 1H time - frame, I found a confirmed revered head and shoulders pattern in the background, which is a sign that buyers are in control. I also found a breakout of the channel, which is another sign of strength. My advice is to watch for potential buying opportunities. The upward targets are set at the price of $7.660 and at the price of $7.865.

Support/Resistance

$7.370 – Intraday resistance

$7.211– Intraday support

$7.660 – Objective target 1

$7.865 – Objective target 2

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Analysis of Gold for April 03, 2018

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Recently, the Gold has been trading upwards. The price tested the level of $1,344.26. Anyway, according to the 30M time – frame, I found the rejection of major Fibonacci retracement 61.8% at the price of $1,343.00 in the background, which is a sign that buyers got exhausted. I also found a hidden bearish divergence on the stochastic oscillator, which is another sign of weakness. My advice is to watch for potential selling opportunities. The downward target is set at the price of $1,322.60.

Resistance levels:

R1: $1,349.22

R2: $1,357.15

R3: $1,369.35

Support levels:

S1: $1,329.10

S2: $1,316.90

S3: $1,309.00

Trading recommendations for today: watch for potential selling opportunities.

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USD/JPY analysis for April 03, 2018

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Recently, the USD/JPY pair has been trading upwards. The price tested the level of 106.16. According to the 30M time – frame, I found a shakeout in the background, which is a sign that sellers got trapped. I also found a successful rejection of 21SMA, which is another sign of strength. My advice is to watch for potential buying opportunities. The upward targets are set at the price of 106.42 and at the price of 107.00.

Resistance levels:

R1: 106.35

R2: 106.80

R3: 107.15

Support levels:

S1: 105.55

S2: 105.21

S3: 104.76

Trading recommendations for today: watch for potential buying opportunities.

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Bitcoin analysis for 03/04/2018

During the meeting with the legislative arm of Taiwan, the head of the Central Bank, Yang Chin-long, was asked about how the banking authorities will respond to the current lack of transparency in the trade of cryptocurrencies in this country. The discussion was intensified mainly by recent price drops, in accordance with the news given by the Central Taiwan Agency. Answering the parliamentary MP's questions, the Governor of Taiwan said that the Central Bank has increased its efforts to monitor volatile movements of Bitcoin prices and will issue warnings to investors about the risk of cryptocurrency transactions. In addition, Yang said the banking body suggested to the Taiwanese Ministry of Justice that cryptocurrency transactions should be regulated in accordance with the applicable anti-money laundering (AML) regulations in the financial sector.The case remains open and it is not known whether the suggestion will be supported by the ministry, but it is to be the last move of the Taiwanese authorities in implementing BTC regulations. Earlier this month, the finance minister of the island, Sheu Yu-jer, expressed the belief that cryptocurrencies - which are treated like virtual goods - should be taxed in Taiwan. He added that the agency is currently investigating how to implement the appropriate taxation rules. Jang's comments appeared just after other Asian governments, such as South Korea and Malaysia, have already taken action to regulate cryptocurrencies under the anti-money laundering rules to prevent financial crimes.

Let's now take a look at the Bitcoin technical picture at the H4 time frame. The market has bounced from the level of $6,400 and now is testing the technical resistance at the level of $7,245, just above the weekly pivot at the level of $7,146. the bounce from the level of $6,400 seems solid, so if the level of $7,245 is broken, then the bulls might push the price higher towards the level of $8,000. Bullish divergence supports the upward view.

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Trading plan for 03/04/2018

The quarter begins with the next episode of the sale of risky assets. The SP500 dropped 2.2% on Monday. plunged by the technology sector. The Nasdaq index at the same time erased the whole of this year's increase. From the intraday peak (65.40) the WTI barrel rate fell to over 2.5 USD. In such an environment, the yen strengthened, USD / JPY fell below 106.00. The EUR/USD starts the month in the middle of its wide fluctuation range 1.2160 - 1.2550.

On Tuesday, 3rd of April, the event calendar is quite busy with important data releases. During the London session, Switzerland will release Retail Sales data and Germany, France, Italy, UK and whole Eurozone will issue PMI Manufacturing data. During the US session, API will release weekly crude oil stock data and there are two speeches scheduled from FOMC members Neel Kashkari and Lael Brainard.

AUD/USD analysis for 03/04/2018:

Today, the Antipodes currencies are strong after reaching this year's lows this past week, returning above 0.77. NZD/USD comes out over 0.7250. Considering that both currencies (and especially the Australian dollar) are sensitive in the context of trade wars, I do not see room for their permanent strengthening. However, the Australian dollar from the group of commodity currencies should be the weakest, which also gives chances for AUD/CAD and, to a lesser extent, AUD/NZD.

Let's now take a look at the AUD/USD technical picture at the H4 time frame. The market is trying to bounce towards the nearest technical resistance at the level of 0.7706, just where the short-term trend line is (dashed black). The momentum indicator points to the north so there is a strength behind this move, but the key resistance is seen between the levels of 0.7759 - 0.7786. the nearest support is still seen at the level of 0.7642.

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Ichimoku cloud indicator analysis of USDX for April 3, 2018

The Dollar index is getting rejected once again at the trend line resistance but still trades above the 4-hour cloud. The longer it takes to break above the 90.15 the more possible it is for prices to break down below the Ichimoku cloud once again.

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Red line - resistance

The Dollar index has short-term resistance at 90.15 where we see the red trend line resistance. Price has gotten rejected 4 times from that trend line. Support is in the cloud at 89.70. Break below the cloud support and we might see a deep pullback in the index that could even push the price below the March lows.

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On a weekly basis, we remain above the tankan-sen indicator. Holding above the tankan-sen is a bullish sign. The Dollar index could very well push towards the weekly kijun-sen at 91.70. The first sign that we are heading towards that target is a break above 90.45. A weekly close below 89.50 will be a very bearish sign that would imply a new low below 88 might be coming.

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Technical analysis of USD/JPY for April 03, 2018

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USD/JPY is expected to trade with a bearish outlook. The pair has failed to post a sustainable rebound while being capped by the descending 20-period moving average, which stands below the 50-period one. Downward momentum for the pair is also evidenced by the relative strength index, which remains subdued in the 30s. Therefore, intraday bearishness persists, and the pair is expected to return to 105.65 before sinking further toward 105.45. Key resistance is located at 106.40, a breach would open a path toward 106.70 on the upside.

Chart Explanation: The black line shows the pivot point. The present price above the pivot point indicates a bullish position, and the price below the pivot point indicates a short position. The red lines show the support levels, and the green line indicates the resistance levels. These levels can be used to enter and exit trades.

Strategy: SELL, stop loss at 106.40, take profit at 105.65

Resistance levels: 106.70, 107.00, and 107.30

Support levels: 105.65, 105.45, and 105.00.

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Ichimoku cloud indicator analysis of Gold for April 3, 2018

The gold price has reached $1,345 yesterday and is now trading around $1,340. The gold price has bounced from our support area and is now challenging the long-term resistance area again.

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Red lines - trading range

The gold price has broken above the 4-hour Kumo once again. The price found support at the 4-hour cloud and is bouncing. Next important resistance is at $1,345 (yesterday highs) and at $1,355. A break above $1,355 will open the way for a big break out towards $1,400 and higher. Support is at $1,320. Break below it and we head towards $1,300.

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Magenta line - long-term resistance

Blue trend line -long-term support

On a weekly basis, the gold price remains below the long-term magenta trend line resistance but also above the weekly Kumo. I expect the gold price to eventually break the resistance to the upside and move towards $1,400. This scenario is still valid as long as the price is above $1,300. So any pull back is seen as a buying opportunity with stops at $1,300.

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Technical analysis of USD/CHF for April 03, 2018

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USD/CHF is expected to trade with a bullish outlook. The pair managed to hold above its key horizontal support at 0.9520, and is likely to post a new bounce. The 20-period moving average is turning up now and also crossed above the 50-period one (a bullish signal). In addition, the relative strength index is also positive above its neutrality area at 50. To sum up, as long as 0.9520 is not broken, likely advance to 0.9585 and 0.9610 in extension.

Chart Explanation: The black line shows the pivot point. The present price above the pivot point indicates a bullish position, and the price below the pivot point indicates a short position. The red lines show the support levels, and the green line indicates the resistance levels. These levels can be used to enter and exit trades.

Strategy: BUY, stop loss at 0.9520, take profit at 0.9585.

Resistance levels: 0.9580, 0.9610, and 0.9650

Support levels: 0.9500, 0.9475, and 0.9420.

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Technical analysis of GBP/JPY for April 03, 2018

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GBP/JPY is expected to trade with a bearish outlook. The pair accelerated on the downside after the recent bearish breakout of a key horizontal level at 130.55, which now acts as a resistance role. Both the 20-period and 50-period moving averages are heading downward and should continue to push the prices lower. Therefore, as long as 149.70 holds on the upside, look for a new pullback to 148.30 and 147.90 in extension.

Chart Explanation: The black line shows the pivot point. Currently, the price is above the pivot point which is a signal for long positions. If it remains below the pivot point, it will indicate short positions. The red lines show the support levels, while the green line indicates the resistance levels. These levels can be used to enter and exit trades.

Resistance levels: 150.15, 150.65, and 151.30.

Support levels: 148.30, 147.90, and 147.

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Pound - The Dark Horse of G10

In the first quarter, the British pound added 4 percent against the US dollar due to a reduction in political risks and an increase in the likelihood of a continuation of the cycle of normalization of the monetary policy of the Bank of England in May, above 80 percent. Slowing inflation from 3 percent to 2.7 percent and increasing wages to 2.8 percent can be expected to bolster the purchasing power of the population and the acceleration of GDP. As a result, the factor of underestimation can play on the side of the pound.

While the OECD claims that the economy of the United Kingdom will show the slowest growth rates among developed countries, a pleasant surprise is able to help the "bulls" in the GBP/USD to restore an upward trend. For example, you do not need to go far: at the end of 2016, Bloomberg experts gave modest estimates of the eurozone's GDP for 2017 at + 1.7%. In fact, the indicator was received positively with the 2.5% rally, which became one of the key drivers of strengthening the euro by 14%. As a clue to the future dynamics of the economy of the United Kingdom can serve as evidence from business activity. The statistics on purchasing managers' indices adds saturation to the economic calendar and pushes the pound for the most interesting currency of the first week of April.

Dynamics of PMI in services and GDP in Britain

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Source: Trading Economics.

Moderately negative PMI forecasts in production (54.7 versus 55.2 in February) and construction sectors (50.8 against 51.8), as well as in services sector (54 versus 54.5) may become a kind of rehearsal, what will happen to the pound for the rest of the year. Strong factual data inspire "Bulls" for GBP/USD to take advantage of.

Positive from macroeconomic statistics, coupled with the decision on the transition period for Britain until 2019, which should be interpreted as a reduction in political risks, untie the hands of the Bank of England. The Committee on Monetary Policy has plenty of "hawks" who were waiting for clues from Brussels. The futures market expects an increase in repo rates in May and November, the normalization cycle may continue in February 2019. Adjustments to this trajectory can be made by politics and the economy. In particular, "bears" for the sterling pound say that it is too early to speak about certainty with regard to Brexit and refer to volatility growth from 7.8% in October-December to 8.3% in January-March. ING, on the other hand, claims that the pound's violent response to a transitional report indicates its underestimation.

When predicting the future dynamics of GBP/USD, one should not forget about such a factor as trade wars. The exchange of import duties between the US and China worsens the global appetite for risk, which negatively affects the desire of investors to invest in financial markets in Britain and is a deterrent for sterling.

Technically, the necessary condition for the recovery of the "bullish" trend for GBP/USD is a breakthrough resistance at 1.425. In this case, the child pattern AB=CD with a target of 200% will be activated. While the pair's quotes are above 1.3705, the situation is controlled by buyers.

GBP/USD, daily chart

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