Fundamental Analysis of NZD/USD for January 18, 2019

NZD/USD has been quite volatile and bearish recently while residing above 0.6700 area with a daily close. NZD has been struggling to regain momentum over USD whereas US positive economic reports provided USD with support.

NZD has been quite impressive with the recent counter-move against USD but recently could not sustain the impulsiveness it had earlier when trading above 0.6700. December's New House Sales report was published with the sharpest decrease in the recent seven years. This undermined NZD in the pair. This week NZD was quite positive with the economic reports, but it did not quite help the currency to gain momentum. Today Business NZ Manufacturing Index report was published with an increase to 55.1 from the previous figure of 53.7, which helped the currency to establish certain bullish counter-move in the pair but it is expected to be short-lived. On the other hand, USD is likely to maintain momentum in the coming days. As NZD investors are currently waiting for the US-China efficient trade deal. If the deal is concluded, NZD is going to pick up steam in the hsort term after weakness.

On the other hand, USD has been quite optimistic and positive with the recent economic events and reports which helped the currency to sustain the bearish pressure in the pair. Citing FED's Quarles, inflation is very well contained and data on the domestic economy is also quite positive. Solid fundamentals are sure to prop up the economy in the medium term. After raising the interest rate 4 times last year, this year FED Chair Powell is going to take a patient approach with at least of 2 rate hikes which are currently being discussed. According to FED's official Charles Evans, a pause in rate hike is crucial amid looming uncertainty. Recently Philly FED Manufacturing Index report was published with a significant increase to 17.0 from the previous figure of 9.4 which was expected to be at 9.7 and Unemployment Claims report was published with a positive result of a decrease to 213k from the previous figure of 216k which was expected to increase to 219k.

Meantime, USD is expected to dominate NZD further in the coming days. Any soft economic report from the US will provide grounds the bullish momentum again in the future.

Now let us look at the technical view. The price is currently heading towards 0.6700 area after a breach below the dynamic level of 20 EMA. As of the current price structure, the price is expected to move lower towards 0.67. If any bearish rejection with a daily close is observed, certain bullish pressure towards 0.70 is expected in the future. As the price remains above 0.6700 area, the bullish bias is expected to continue.

SUPPORT: 0.6500, 0.6700

RESISTANCE: 0.6850, 0.6950, 0.70

BIAS: BULLISH

MOMENTUM: VOLATILE

analytics5c419176e7bfd.png

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Experts expect the yen to strengthen against the backdrop of a weaker dollar

Today, the yen became cheaper against the dollar after The Wall Street Journal reported that the US authorities are discussing the possible abolition of import duties on Chinese goods, although the US Treasury later denied this information.

DN22dI1_NNiS2sRBi2sdrUQlkXAZe0rhu2MFJC7v

According to a number of experts, despite optimistic expectations regarding the resolution of trade disputes between Washington and Beijing, the situation in the future will not be in favor of Greenback.

"We believe that the effect of fiscal stimulation in the United States will gradually come to naught, and investors will eventually lose their desire to buy risky assets, in connection with which the yen will strengthen. We expect the USD / JPY pair to reach 103 over the next 6-12 months," said experts at Citigroup financial conglomerate.

"The Japanese currency is very cheap compared to its long-term fair value, and investments in it, in our opinion, are more profitable than in euros," they added.

Citigroup has revised down its forecast for the dollar index for 2019 from 93.33 to 92.56.

Analysts at Bank of America Merrill Lynch (BofAML) adhere to a similar point of view.

"We believe that in the foreseeable future, interest in risky assets will decline due to the fact that the growth rate of the world economy may have reached its maximum," they noted.

According to the BofAML forecast, by the end of the year, the USD / JPY pair will drop to 101.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Media: the US may waive duties on Chinese goods

analytics5c41d8b6c99b0.jpg

According to the newspaper The Wall Street Journal, the United States is considering the possibility of abandoning the protective duties previously imposed by Washington on the import of Chinese goods. The White House administration sees such a move as a way to calm global financial markets and encourage Beijing to make deeper and longer-term concessions in a trade war.

With the proposed measures do not agree on US Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer. He believes that China may perceive such a step as a weakness on the part of Washington.

The idea of partial cancellation of duties or complete rejection of them was proposed by US Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin. The politician argues that such a policy of easing trading conditions will help succeed in advancing trade negotiations with China and enlist Beijing's support in conducting joint longer-term reforms.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Euro bets on ECB

Weak statistics on the German economy and the mention of Mario Draghi of the word "recession" led the single European currency into the red zone for the week by January 18. And let the head of the ECB argued that the recession is not a question, we need to talk about a smooth landing, the financial markets are rather shy. If German GDP shows the worst dynamics since 2013, and its European counterpart, judging by business activity, closes the fourth quarter worse than the modest third (+ 0.2% q / q), then why buy EUR / USD? Wouldn't it be better to continue to keep the US dollar in investment portfolios?

Theoretically, the slowdown in the US economy, the pause in the process of normalizing monetary policy and the growing recession risks should weaken the position of the bears on the main currency pair. However, while macroeconomic statistics do not confirm the idea of a significant loss in the rate of US GDP, and the yield curve has not inverted, it is too early to panic. Yes, the indicator predicted the last 7 recessions of 7, yes, the macro statistics are retrospective, and the indications of financial markets are of a predictive nature, but until the thunder breaks out, the peasant will not cross himself.

Dynamics of the US yield curve

vAA-GSjXuat9vq5Lu7NbnkrYAMMKgABQ4VdtdIwc

Fed officials are beginning to pay increased attention to the dynamics of stock indices. In their opinion, the high turbulence of the stock market, the growing risks of a slowdown in the global economy and global demand, as well as tight financial conditions and a strong dollar are strong arguments in favor of slowing monetary restriction. However, looking at the peak of the USD index at the end of 2018, it can be concluded that the factor of the "pigeon" rhetoric of the FOMC plenipotentiaries is already partially taken into account in the EUR / USD quotes.

A single European currency would be nice to get up on its feet, and a week by January 25 may be decisive in its fate. In its course, the results of the ECB meeting and figures on business activity for January will be known. The strong start of purchasing managers' indices in 2019, coupled with the preservation of the Governing Council's optimism about the recovery of GDP and inflation of the currency bloc, can inspire EUR / USD "bulls" to attack. On the contrary, the inability of PMI to implement moderately positive forecasts of Bloomberg experts and hints of Mario Draghi on the expansion of the stimulus package, if necessary, will return the initiative to the bears.

The course of negotiations between the US and China can also contribute to its dynamics. If the idea of Steven Mnuchin to lift import duties in order to calm the financial markets comes to life, then we are expected to sell safe-haven assets, including the US dollar. On the contrary, the escalation of the conflict will hurt the euro.

Technically, the bulls in EUR / USD do not leave hopes for the implementation of the Bat pattern with a target of 88.6%. To do this, they need to bring the quotes of the pair outside the consolidation range of 1.1265-1.1485 and rewrite the January maximum. On the contrary, the inability of euro buyers to keep quotes above $ 1.14 will increase the risks of continuing the pair's southern hike.

EUR / USD, the daily chart

ZmKzWS_D6wCdJG0ObtdTRdIpzNIuMVfncYhYFAH-

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

EUR and GBP. The problems in the UK economy is increasing. Euro buyers disappointed with statistics

The euro remained traded in a narrow side channel paired with the US dollar, but held its position after the release of the next weak fundamental statistics for the eurozone.

The reduction in the positive balance of the current account of the eurozone's balance of payments in November 2018 again indicates that the eurozone economy is slowing again by the end of the year and is unlikely to show good growth rates in early 2019. The sharp decline compared with October and the level of 2017 is bad news for the European Central Bank, which recently more and more often speaks not about raising interest rates, but about the need to further stimulate the economy.

Important is the fact that, in the main, a reduction in the positive balance of payments was caused by a reduction in trade in goods due to an increase in imports.

If we add to all the data for this week the likelihood of a new trade war between the US and the EU, the prospects for the European currency at the beginning of this year do not seem so rosy as before.

According to the report of the European regulator, the positive balance of the current account of the balance of payments in the eurozone in November 2018 amounted to 20 billion euros against 27 billion euros in October. Compared with November 2017, the decline is impressive, since at that time the surplus was 35 billion euros. The surplus of trade in goods in November fell to 18 billion euros from 31 billion euros in November 2017.

z0uH2NJCN5J_ma0sCKNLmfPvjpTruGAFh8sUMRQi

Weak data for the euro area all week does not allow euro buyers to form a larger upward correction, and, ultimately, everything could end in another wave of falling risky assets.

As for the technical picture of the EUR / USD pair, the bears are trying to resume the downward movement in the market after the unsuccessful attempt of the bulls to return to the game. A break of 1.1375 may lead to a larger decrease in risky assets with the renewal of lows around 1.1340 and 1.1310. In the case of another false breakdown in the area of 1.1375, bulls can willingly return, which will lead to a powerful upward impulse with a test and a breakthrough of the intermediate resistance 1.1415 and the main goal of updating the maximum of 1.1450.

The British pound remained under pressure and corrected after yesterday's growth, based more on expectations than on facts.

Weak data on retail sales in the UK once again indicated a slowdown in economic growth at the end of 2018. According to the report of the National Bureau of Statistics ONS, retail sales in the UK in December 2018 decreased by 0.9% compared with the previous month. This is another confirmation that the growth momentum of the UK economy is fading. Given the situation with the EU and Brexit, it is unlikely that in the near future it will be possible to expect a change in the situation, as consumer confidence decreases, as do their expenses.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

GBP / USD pair: plan for the American session on January 18. Yesterday's speculative growth of the pound did not find the

To open long positions on the GBP / USD pair, you need:

Buyers missed the support level of 1.2963, and the main task for the second half of the day is to return to this range, which will allow forming the lower limit of the new ascending channel and count on the continued growth of the pound in the region of maximum 1.3016 and 1.3064. In the case of a further downward correction of the GBP/USD pair, taking a closer look from the 1.2896 or 1.2835 low is the best option in considering for long positions.

To open short positions on the GBP / USD pair, you need:

Failing to fix above the resistance of 1.2963 in the second half of the day will be a signal to open short positions in the pound. However, the main task is to return to the support level of 1.2896, which will likely update the minimum of 1.2835, where I recommend taking profits. In the case of a return of GBP/USD to the resistance level of 1.2963, it is best to return to short positions from the maximum of 1.3016 and 1.3064.

Indicator signals:

Moving averages

Trade returned to the area of 30- and 50-day moving, which indicates the lateral nature of the market.

Bollinger bands

Volatility remains low, which does not give signals to enter the market.

More in the video forecast for January 18

ZIIDWTKP-Y8f5TftNhMxSb48D4xGzS9nRAW-i2pB

Description of indicators

MA (moving average) 50 days - yellow

MA (moving average) 30 days - green

MACD: fast EMA 12, slow EMA 26, SMA 9

Bollinger Bands 20

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Overview of the foreign exchange market on 01/18/2019

Yet "Alice in Wonderland" is not a fiction, but a scrupulous description of the realities of Albion. Now, British politicians are seriously discussing the possibility of postponing the final date of leaving the European family, and representatives of the big business decided not to waste time and talked about the need to re-referendum. The business that will suffer most if the current version of the agreement is adopted, that is, without an economic component, clearly expects that Her Majesty's subjects already have enough of everything that is happening, and this time they will vote to remain in the European Union. Unlike politicians, a business understands perfectly well that if it has not been able to get off the ground in nearly two years, how many do not put it off, nothing will change. After all, Britain wants to withdraw from the Fourth Reich, forgetting about all the obligations, while maintaining the privileged conditions for trade. The trouble is that how many politicians do not try, the Europeans themselves are not particularly eager to make such a gift to the Islanders. The news itself about the possibility of postponing the release date strongly inspired market participants, and they arranged a wholesale purchase of a pound.

RaJ6BNJQ8t1WIERZqNBK5w0WtPQu9TuJNRzrT35x

Everyone was so closely watching the next series of the British cult series that they completely forgot about other currencies, which stood rooted to the spot. There was no reason to worry, as the summary data on inflation in Europe only confirmed the fact of its decline from 1.9% to 1.6%.

Most likely, today will follow the next statements regarding Brexit and the possibility of its transfer to a later date. Now, everything depends on the European Commission, which should answer this question. And, given the purely European craving for excessive bureaucracy, the likelihood of such a development is extremely small. Moreover, just a couple of days ago, Jean-Claude Juncker admitted that the current version of the agreement is the best that Europe can offer to the United Kingdom. So how many do not postpone, nothing will change. And the realization of this fact will be the reason for the reverse decline of the pound, to about 1.2900.

yNPdD2ll6kbTyvDPxL2sPxvapSvVwvn9FmHhJ7aw

The euro will continue to remain in the area of 1.1375 - 1.1400.

ABa0P4LBNDGigeasdwLS03_n6z8hlALn7Jdk_5wS

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Euro lost all optimism

Eurozone

The final figures for inflation in the eurozone in December came out in accordance with the preliminary estimate, without having any impact on the euro quotes. The price increase was 1.6%, root inflation at 1%, which is below the target levels of the ECB but does not cause concern.

Inflation is still low, but price pressures are increasing as wages rise, and the ECB has no reason to change its estimates since the main reason for the fact that inflation is still low is the fall in energy prices. As for the super-high-speed component, that is, prices that react to the business cycle, they are in the growth phase, which gives hope for the growth of core inflation by the end of the year to 1.5%. Which, in fact, completely suits the ECB.

Zwp4L2V_MiV1D8OTxZHF1zkesyb5XokfuKjOT22l

Another thing, the slowdown in business activity. At the December meeting, the ECB gave a quite optimistic comment, stating that the risks associated with growth prospects in the eurozone can be generally regarded as balanced. Next week, most likely, the bank will have to admit that the balance of risks is shifting to the downside due to the growing uncertainty associated with geopolitical factors, increased protectionism, increased volatility and slowdown in emerging markets.

The reality for the ECB has changed. PMI in the eurozone continues to decline, the US and China report a slowdown in growth, in the eurozone itself a very low level of industrial production, Germany is slowing before our eyes, and unrest continues in France. The ECB is likely to shift the risk assessment down, again, it is likely that the forecast for GDP growth will drop from 1.7% to 1.4% or even to 1.2%.

In fact, on the side of the hawks in the ECB, there is only rising inflation, everything else indicates an approaching period of cooling. In such circumstances, the ECB is unlikely to risk supporting a hint of a rate hike in the summer, market expectations for the rate will shift at best by the end of the year, and the euro will experience increasing pressure. Any indication of the continuation of the asset reinvestment program, and even more so of the expansion of support for the economy, will be perceived negatively by the markets, and this is precisely what is going on.

The threat of EUR / USD decline to 1.1330 by the end of the day is growing, there is no reason for optimism. The euro will be under pressure in the coming days.

Great Britain

For Britain, there was a light at the end of the tunnel. The Brexit agreement could be revised to the mutual satisfaction of the parties. As the European Union's main negotiator for Brexit, Michel Barnier, said on Thursday, Brussels will make concessions in the deal if Britain, in turn, will also be ready to make concessions.

The pound immediately responded with growth, as this recognition sharply increased the chances of a successful outcome. Britain removes the threat of early elections and a repeated referendum, as well as a number of unpleasant financial and trade consequences that would have been realized in the event of a tough scenario. The EU, in turn, against the background of the growing threat of protectionism, should prepare for difficult negotiations with the United States, and if it will have a slowdown in trade at the same time with China and Britain, this can put strong pressure on already weak economic activity.

GBP / USD on Friday looks stronger than the dollar and can rise on the positive wave to 1.31 if any insider appears about preparing for the final vote in parliament on Monday. Support has moved to 1.2930.

Oil

OPEC maintained its forecast for oil demand for 2018 at the level of 98.78 million barrels per day and for 2019 at the level of 100.08 barrels per day, noting that growth will be provided, first of all, by Asian countries headed by India. Saving the forecast contributed to the growth of quotations, Brent rose to 61.95 and is preparing to check the previous maximum of 62.50.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

EUR / USD pair: plan for the American session on January 18. There is almost no movement in the market

To open long positions on EUR / USD pair, you need:

The weak fundamental statistics did not allow euro buyers to form a larger upward correction. It is important that the bulls manage to hold the EUR/USD pair above the support level of 1.1375. However, the main task is to return to the resistance level of 1.1411, which will lead to a larger upward correction to the area of the maximum of 1.1451 and 1.1490, where I recommend to fix the profit. A Weak data on the US labor market can help the bulls with correction. In the case of a repeated decline in the support area of 1.1375 in the afternoon, it is best to return in long positions to the rebound from the minimum of 1.1343.

To open short positions on EUR / USD pair, you need:

The sellers did not manage to return to the support level of 1.1375 and for the second half of the day, their main task is to break this range, which will lead to a larger EUR/USD sale with a minimum of 1.1343 and 1.1312, where I recommend to fix the profit. In case that a quick downward movement is not formed after testing the minimum of 1.1375, as it was today in the first half of the day, I recommend closing short positions since a large upward correction in euro can be formed from this level. When the growth scenario is above the resistance of 1.1411 against the background of weak fundamental statistics for the USA, it is best to consider short positions in EUR/USD pair on a rebound from 1.1451.

Indicator signals:

Moving averages

Trade is conducted in the area of 30- and 50-medium moving, which indicates the side character of the market.

Bollinger bands

The volatility of the Bollinger Bands indicator is low, which does not give signals to enter the market.

More in the video forecast for January 18

_fYNxlf_OeMXEqGWuBWi43AE6WjA8EbRvau2HgdT

Description of indicators

MA (moving average) 50 days - yellow

MA (moving average) 30 days - green

MACD: fast EMA 12, slow EMA 26, SMA 9

Bollinger Bands 20

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

GBP / USD: The assault of the 30th figure failed, the pair can go to 1.2860

The pound has entered again the zone of uncertainty on the eve of the most important negotiations between London and Brussels and the subsequent vote in the House of Commons. For two and a half years from the moment of the historic referendum, the British currency has repeatedly experienced strong volatility, which as a rule, on the threshold of the key stages of Brexit. Now the Briton responds to the information background regarding the prospects of the negotiation process. The stakes are too high: if Theresa May finds a common denominator between parliamentarians and the European Union, the deal can be approved as early as next week. Otherwise, negotiations will drag on for several months, and Brexit's date will have to be postponed to a later date (although May now rejects this scenario). In any case, the coming days for GBP/USD traders will be intense.

London and Brussels "exchanged pleasantries" yesterday. Hence, the representative of the European Commission said that the European side is ready to consider a possible proposal by the British to postpone Brexit, if only they give valid reasons for this. However, Downing Street categorically rejected such a scenario. A spokesman for the British government said that if the EU announced a proposal to extend the 50th article of the Treaty of Lisbon (which allows for the postponement of Brexit), Britain will say no. In other words, the proposal to postpone the withdrawal of the country from the Alliance is not considered by the parties as a matter of priority - it is rather a backup plan, which will be relevant only if the British parliament fails to vote for an updated draft of the transaction.

LBEOiZXmkafbBmyB8iAOp392PWrWfyXZvhR9qjh4

At the moment, the sequence of actions is as follows: on Monday, Theresa May presents her "Plan B" after consulting with the leaders of parliamentary associations. Then, she must agree on a renewed deal with Brussels if she undergoes significant changes on key issues, and proceed to a vote on January 29. In my opinion, the "European" stage of negotiations is the most difficult in the process of the forthcoming agreement. On the one hand, the main negotiator from the European Union, Michel Barnier, said yesterday that the European Union is ready for a "more ambitious deal." He did not clarify the meaning of his expression, but the general message is obvious: Brussels is ready to sit down at the negotiating table, despite its "principled" position regarding the inviolability of the agreements reached. On the other hand, the market doubts it.

In this vein, the written appeal of the EU leadership to the British parliamentarians is indicative, which was sent to London on the day of voting on the first draft of the deal. In this letter, Brussels explained its approach to Brexit's main unsolved problem: the regime of border control between Ireland and Northern Ireland after the country's withdrawal from the Alliance. The letter did not have the main thing, not even a hint of the provision of legal guarantees to Britain regarding the time frame of the backstop. Brussels limited itself to the phrase that the European Union would not use this regime "beyond the strictly necessary period." This is a rather vague wording, which, among other things, has no legal force. Also, the European Union has once again confirmed that it is ready to extend the transition period.

Now, the fact that it is safe to say that this appeal is useless. From this, we can make an obvious conclusion that no verbal exhortations of Europeans can convince opponents of May, only legal guarantees regarding the mode of action of the back-stop will shift the situation from a dead end. "Are you ready to go for it in Brussels or not?" is an open question. That is why today, pessimism has returned to the market regarding the prospects for the upcoming talks and the pound, in tandem with the dollar, has suspended its growth, saving it from the psychologically important mark of 1.30.

If we talk about macroeconomic statistics, then the situation is quite contradictory as the British inflation reached the predicted level. The core consumer price index even exceeded expectations, being at the level of 1.9%, while retail sales were clearly disappointed with -0.9% m/m and 3% y/y compared to the forecast of -0, 8% m/m and 3.6% g/g.

o4Clf1Hs_fKzAPoNexK0Ve64nA8tLvpiDJWJGo1y

However, traders actually ignored these releases. Brexit is still a priority for the market. Hence, until the end of the negotiation process, the pound will focus only on this news background. This means that it is almost impossible to predict the price movement of GBP/USD, since any comment by representatives of London and Brussels can turn the price up or down, depending on the context. Whereas today, GBP/USD bears can easily pull the pair to the first support level of 1.2860 against the background of profit taking on the eve of restless holidays.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Simplified wave analysis of EUR / JPY for January 18

Large-scale graphics:

The bear wave that set the main direction of the price movement over the past year has a high chance of completing at current levels. Its structure looks completely complete, and the pair quotes are at the upper limit of strong support.

i75qCUpbYP1kI6X-FvVUJoenAS6FbIS6mRNKmz51

Medium scale graphics:

The downward wave of September 21 completes the downward wave model of a larger scale.

_tsb5KR5VBHtw3r_5pjoTwYCS4L-Uf_i1EG3Lvc4

Small-scale graphics:

From January 3, the ascending segment with a reversal potential is formed on the graph. Over time, it will become the basis for a new short-term trend. The middle part (B) is formed in the wave structure.

Forecast and recommendations:

In the coming weeks, the most likely scenario for cross-movement will be "sideways" between the closest oncoming zones. After its completion will be promising purchase tool.

Resistance zones:

- 125.20 / 125.70

Support areas:

- 123.30 / 122.80

Explanations for the figures: The simplified wave analysis uses waves consisting of 3 parts (A – B – C). For analysis, 3 consecutive graphs are used. Each of them analyzes the last, incomplete wave. Zones show calculated areas with the highest probability of reversal. The arrows indicate the wave marking by the method used by the author. The solid background shows the formed structure, the dotted - the expected movement.

Attention: The wave algorithm does not take into account the duration of tool movements over time. To conduct a trade transaction, you need confirmation signals from the trading systems you use!

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

GBP / USD. January 18th. The trading system. "Regression Channels". The pound sterling is growing at the most unexpected

4-hour timeframe

BhkFBIOPWS5tE5rkh6yMn4jc3b6j9NN0crF_VeUt

Technical details:

The senior linear regression channel: direction - down.

The younger linear regression channel: direction - up.

Moving average (20; smoothed) - up.

CCI: 184.2168

The currency pair GBP / USD on the last trading day of the week continues to grow steadily against the US currency. Despite the fact that Theresa May miraculously kept herself in the prime minister's chair, and her Brexit plan failed miserably, traders continue to buy pounds sterling. One gets the impression that such an illogical reaction may be associated with the acceleration of the pair before a new prolonged fall. Now, when the probability of leaving the EU without any "deals" is extremely high, this is clearly not a reason for buying the British pound. Thus, it is possible that the market purposefully moves the pound upwards in order to sell it at a higher price. As for Theresa May's further actions, in the near future, she should discuss with all faction leaders and deputies an alternative exit plan from the EU, which in any case provides for new negotiations with Brussels. But will Brussels go to new negotiations? Further, time is running out as the date of the country's withdrawal from the EU is March 29. Thus, the likelihood that in such a short period of time, the parties will be able to come to a new agreement, which will suit the British Parliament, is extremely low. On Friday, January 18, the UK is scheduled to publish a report on retail sales, but now the British pound is not particularly needed support. At the end of the trading week, it is still possible to roll back from local maxima.

Nearest support levels:

S1 - 1.2939

S2 - 1.2878

S3 - 1.2817

Nearest resistance levels:

R1 - 1.3000

R2 - 1.3062

R3 - 1.3123

Trading recommendations:

The currency pair GBP / USD continues its upward movement. Thus, now remain relevant long positions with targets at 1.3000 and 1.3062. Manual closing of trades is possible when Heikin Ashi indicator is down.

Sell positions will become relevant no earlier than price fixing below the moving average line. The first goal, in this case, will be the level of 1.1827.

In addition to the technical picture, you should also consider the fundamental data and the time of their release.

Explanations for illustrations:

The senior linear regression channel is the blue lines of the unidirectional movement.

The junior linear channel is the purple lines of the unidirectional movement.

CCI is the blue line in the indicator regression window.

The moving average (20; smoothed) is the blue line on the price chart.

Murray levels - multi-colored horizontal stripes.

Heikin Ashi is an indicator that colors bars in blue or purple.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

EUR / USD. January 18th. The trading system. "Regression Channels". Complete calm

4-hour timeframe

BIH-R12EjZZNW0-Msg1SWn1dKmRGTKV3L_hPri9Z

Technical details:

The senior linear regression channel: direction - up.

The younger linear regression channel: direction - up.

Moving average (20; smoothed) - down.

CCI: -106.0778

The currency pair EUR / USD on Friday, January 18, continues a very weak downward movement, which by its nature borders on the side. But still, a small downward slope is present. Instrument volatility has dropped to lows, which is even a bit surprising since there was no reason for such a drop in activity. The important news coming from the UK, although they do not have a strong influence on the euro, still clearly could not contribute to a drop in volatility. In general, it seems that the current situation for the pair is a consequence of some uncertainty among traders in the question: how to trade further? A further decline in the euro will lead to an update of the lows, of which there were four and all of them are clearly visible on the chart. Updating the lows will lead to a breakdown of the technical picture and the possible resumption of the downtrend, for which there are no fundamental grounds now. In this situation, it is best to wait for the pair to exit the low volatility zone. Unfortunately, no important macroeconomic publications have been planned either in the States or in the EU. Thus, today we can hardly expect an increase in activity. Nevertheless, there is always the likelihood of unexpected information entering the markets.

Nearest support levels:

S1 - 1.1353

S2 - 1.1292

S3 - 1.1230

Nearest resistance levels:

R1 - 1.1414

R2 - 1.1475

R3 - 1.1536

Trading recommendations:

The currency pair EUR / USD continues the weakest movement down. Therefore, it is still recommended to trade short positions with the first goal of 1.1353. Heikin Ashi's upward reversal will serve as a signal to manually reduce short positions.

Long positions are recommended to open with the target of 1.1475 if the pair consolidates above the moving average. In the coming days, the pair may remain in the area of weak volatility and the absence of a pronounced trend, so for some time, you can be out of the market.

In addition to the technical picture, you should also consider the fundamental data and the time of their release.

Explanations for illustrations:

The senior linear regression channel is the blue lines of the unidirectional movement.

The younger linear regression channel is the purple lines of the unidirectional movement.

CCI - blue line in the indicator window.

The moving average (20; smoothed) is the blue line on the price chart.

Murray levels - multi-colored horizontal stripes.

Heikin Ashi is an indicator that colors bars in blue or purple.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

EUR / USD: US government work will resume no earlier than the middle of next week

The European currency continues to trade in a narrow side channel paired with the US dollar against the background of weak statistics for the eurozone, which does not allow the bulls to resume an upward correction. On the other hand, the suspension of the work of the US government, which lasts for the fourth week, pushes investors away from buying the American dollar.

Yesterday, Speaker of the US House of Representatives Nancy Pelosi said that a vote on bills that would help resume the work of the US government is scheduled for next week. This was done in order to complete the suspension of the work of the government as soon as possible since it brings great harm to the American economy.

In turn, US President Donald Trump reiterated that the Americans need a strong border with Mexico in the form of a wall since nothing else will work. He once again urged the Democrats to do what was right for the country, which signaled the lack of progress in resolving the problem of suspending the work of the government.

The speeches of representatives of the Federal Reserve System, which took place yesterday afternoon, did not greatly affect the quotes of the US dollar.

Deputy Chairman of the US Federal Reserve, Randal Quarles, said that current economic data is very strong, and therefore the baseline scenario assumes that the economy will remain strong. A good economy can reduce risks in the financial sector, which showed instability at the end of last year. According to Randal Quarles, a slowdown in global economic growth may well be short-lived if the United States and China are able to negotiate with each other.

As for the technical picture of the EUR / USD pair, the bears are trying to resume the downward movement in the market after the unsuccessful attempt of the bulls to return to the game. A break of 1.1375 may lead to a larger decrease in risky assets with the upgrading of 1.1340 and 1.1310 lows. In the case of another false breakdown in the area of 1.1375, bulls can willingly return, which will lead to a powerful upward impulse with a test and a breakthrough of the intermediate resistance of 1.1415 and the main goal of updating the maximum of 1.1450.

4D2524XEFtcwXWWTGrCXWWPxG-LjrRyNuwKu-T0f

The British pound rose slightly against the US dollar yesterday, but a further upward trend is hardly possible. Traders positively perceived the proposal of the British Parliament member Nick Boles to block Brexit without a deal. This will force Prime Minister Theresa May to ask for a postponement of Brexit, since her revised plan, which she must prepare by next Monday, will not be approved in time.

A mild scenario with a postponement of the UK exit from the EU could support the British pound in the short term.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

GBP/USD short-term technical levels with Linear Channels and trading recommendations for January 18, 2019

Blue channel is based on the price movement of yesterday.

Violet channel is based on the previous two-day consolidations.

Yellow channel is based on the previous three-day consolidations.

analytics5c41bf6ede5c0.png

The recent bullish movement of the GBP/USD pair which started around 1.2700, has lost much of its bullish momentum since Wednesday.

Lack of enough bullish momentum is demonstrated on the chart so that Today's recent movements have turned into sideways consolidations.

The pair is currently moving within the depicted narrow channel (Violet channel) after a bearish breakout of the BLUE channel was demonstrated earlier today.

Looking to the downside, the GBP/USD pair has an Intraday support located around 1.2900 which corresponds to mid-range of the yellow channel.

Any bearish pullback towards 1.2900 can be considered for a short-term BUY position.

On the other hand, any decline below 1.2900-1.2880 (Mid-Range Support) enables a deeper decline towards 1.2830 and 1.2780 where the lower limit of the yellow channel is located.

Having a look to the upside, the GBP/USD pair has a key-resistance zone around 1.3020 where bearish rejection may be anticipated.

That's why, obvious bullish breakout above 1.3020 is mandatory for BUYERS to pursue towards 1.3080-1.3100.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Gold is waiting for new growth drivers

Despite the continued uncertainty around Brexit, the "shutdown" in the United States and the prospect of slowing down the process of raising the Fed's interest rate, the gold exchange rate has not yet been able to overcome the $1,300 mark.

QPGfpoT8INxaKR0_Knh4Sma7QPPbwux27uhP0Esd

Against the background of the emergence of contradictory news regarding these events, gold market participants seem to have taken a wait-and-see attitude, which is reflected in the dynamics of the precious metal price.

nJ0GHWzfR0602ZZApJzRZRzxW9tpuEqL30eXSeoE

Meanwhile, according to a number of experts, gold still has good chances for growth.

"We believe that the current year should be favorable for the yellow precious metal since financial markets will experience instability, and therefore investors will begin to refuse to invest in risky assets," said representatives of the World Gold Council (WGC).

"The unfavorable political situation in Europe will also serve as a supporting factor for the cost of the precious metal. One of the main problems of the European Union remains to be the unregulated exit of Great Britain from the European Union. Here, it is necessary to add the protests of the "yellow vests" in France and the government of Euro-skeptics in Italy. Another reason why investors will prefer to invest in gold - the weakening of the US dollar and the low-interest rates of the Fed. In addition, it is expected that central banks will continue to buy precious metals in order to diversify their reserves," they added.

"I believe that one of the drivers of growth in the price of gold will be an increase in the US government debt. In the event of a recession in the country, the rate may increase by 5%. There is also the risk of a downward trend in the stock market, which was last observed in the 1970s. Even its first signs can make investors pay attention to gold," said by John Hathaway of investment company Tocqueville Management.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Bitcoin analysis for January 18, 2019

analytics5c41bc7d2135b.png

My yesterday's call is still active and profitable. I am still bullish on BTC from $3.575 but the level at $3.597 is a solid area to add another bullish position. It is the Fibonacci retracement 38.2%. Price is also near the lower Keltner band, which is a sign that intraday traders became exhausted. Watch for buying opportunities.

Trading recommendations for today: We are still long on BTC from $3.575 with upward targets at the price of $3.647 and $3.687 and protective stop below the level of $3.520.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Forecast for USD / JPY on January 18, 2019

USD / JPY

The yen continues to grow slowly. The price reached the nearest resistance, the rising line of the price channel in the region of 109.50. In the last review, we noted that the risk of a negative scenario will continue until the yen shows pronounced growth. It is this growth that is not happening yet. The price has a chance to consolidate above 109.50 and grow to the next line of the price channel of 110.53. In this case, there is a likelihood of overcoming the price of the Kruzenshtern descending line. We consider such a scenario as the main and positive one. The negative scenario implies a price reduction towards the support of the Kruzenshtern line on H4 108.03. This development of the current situation is indicated by the Marlin oscillator of the daily timeframe, as there is a risk of its reversal down from the zero line.

9ZGgCiauRJcd1IbBafv1uhbGqhBCY4S_ei4ZpRPS

QgeixKA6qQS4mWKZBKMsvF7cRl8u_8rBGslliDWP

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Fractal analysis of major currency pairs on January 18

Dear colleagues.

For the currency pair Euro / Dollar, we expect further downward movement after passing by the price of the range of 1.1375 - 1.1358 and we consider the upward movement as a correction. For the currency pair Pound / Dollar, we have expanded the potential for the top to the level of 1.3194. For the currency pair Dollar / Franc, the upward cycle development from January 10 is expected to continue after the price passes the range of 0.9930 - 0.9951. For the currency pair Dollar / Yen, we expect a movement to the level of 109.57 and the breakdown of the level of 109.74 will lead to the continuation of the upward trend. For the currency pair Euro / Yen, the upward movement is expected after the breakdown of 125.15 and the level of 123.05 is the key support. For the currency pair Pound / Yen, we should continue the development of the ascending structure of January 15 after the breakdown of 142.82.

Forecast for January 18:

Analytical review of H1-scale currency pairs:

v69_7R-gEtpNxy1dA1FxhVa_XbkdyioQJ8FDRECR

For the currency pair Euro / Dollar, the key levels on the H1 scale are 1.1496, 1.1428, 1.1404, 1.1376, 1.1358, 1.1321 and 1.1291. Here, we continue to follow the development of the downward cycle of January 10. We expect the downward movement to continue after the price passes the range of 1.1376 - 1.1358. In this case, the target is 1.1321. The potential value for the bottom is considered the level of 1.1291, upon reaching which we expect a rollback to the top.

The consolidated movement is expected in the range of 1.1404 - 1.1428 and the breakdown of the latter value will lead to a prolonged correction. Here, the target is 1.1469 and this level is the key support for the downward structure.

The main trend is the downward cycle of January 10.

Trading recommendations:

Buy 1.1406 Take profit: 1.1426

Buy 1.1430 Take profit: 1.1466

Sell: 1.1358 Take profit: 1.1324

Sell: 1.1320 Take profit: 1.1294

HFgSs5PbnQD_J9emkf0zMwK3l8MCcctY_8UtDX3s

For the currency pair Pound / Dollar, the key levels on the H1 scale are 1.3194, 1.3118, 1.3057, 1.2944, 1.2900, 1.2839 and 1.2755. Here, we are following the local ascending structure of January 15th. The short-term upward movement is expected in the range of 1.3057 - 1.3118 and the breakdown of the latter value will lead to a movement to the potential target of 1.3194, from which we expect a downward rollback.

The short-term downward movement is possible in the range of 1.2944 - 1.2900 and the breakdown of the latter value will lead to a prolonged correction. Here, the target is 1.2839 and this level is the key support for the top. Its breakdown will have to form a downward structure. In this case, the potential target is 1.2755.

The main trend is the local structure for the top of January 15.

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 1.3057 Take profit: 1.3116

Buy: 1.3120 Take profit: 1.3190

Sell: 1.2944 Take profit: 1.2903

Sell: 1.2898 Take profit: 1.2840

qwBnGT_37gvagE21JQc-gLXTF5YBm9qGRonr0JSX

For the currency pair Dollar / Franc, the key levels on the H1 scale are 1.0034, 0.9984, 0.9951, 0.9930, 0.9897, 0.9877 and 0.9848. Here, we continue to follow the development of the ascending cycle of January 10. The short-term upward movement is possible in the range of 0.9930 - 0.9951 and the breakdown of the latter value will allow us to expect to move to the level of 0.9984, near which we expect consolidation. The potential value for the top is considered the level of 1.0034, upon reaching which we expect a rollback downwards.

The short-term downward movement is possible in the range of 0.9897 - 0.9877 and the breakdown of the latter value will lead to a prolonged correction. Here, the target is 0.9848 and this level is the key support for the ascending structure.

The main trend is the ascending structure of January 10.

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 0.9952 Take profit: 0.9982

Buy: 0.9986 Take profit: 1.0032

Sell: 0.9896 Take profit: 0.9878

Sell: 0.9875 Take profit: 0.9850

kaIzD3YKs02NU6db3XIwpPzRiTHXDGg3CulD7EiJ

For the currency pair Dollar / Yen, the key levels on the scale of H1 are 110.33, 110.07, 109.74, 109.57, 109.08, 108.88, 108.60 and 108.21. Here, we are following the rising structure of January 10th. The movement upwards is expected after the price passes the range of 109.57 - 109.74. In this case, the target is 110.07. The potential value for the top is considered the level of 110.33, after reaching which we expect consolidation, as well as a rollback to the top.

The short-term downward movement is possible in the range of 109.08 - 108.88 and the breakdown of the latter value will lead to a prolonged correction. Here, the goal is 108.60 and this level is the key support. Its breakdown will lead to the development of a downward trend. Here, the goal is 108.21.

The main trend is the rising structure of January 10.

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 109.76 Take profit: 110.05

Buy: 110.08 Take profit: 110.30

Sell: 109.06 Take profit: 108.90

Sell: 108.86 Take profit: 108.63

fHWmXDz-ZL-hBu8C6b_TvIGRp5hleUXBcbrccEnb

For the currency pair Canadian dollar / Dollar, the key levels on the H1 scale are 1.33.95, 1.3320., 1.3271, 1.3201, 1.3150 and 1.3065. Here, the situation is in equilibrium and in the range of 1.3201 - 1.3150, we expect a short-term downward movement, as well as consolidation. The potential value for the bottom is considered the level of 1.3065, after reaching which we expect a rollback to the correction.

The short-term upward movement is possible in the range of 1.3271 - 1.3320 and the breakdown of the latter value will lead to an in-depth correction. Here, the target is 1.3395 and this level is the key support for the downward structure.

The main trend is the equilibrium state of the structure.

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 1.3271 Take profit: 1.3320

Buy: 1.3330 Take profit: 1.3395

Sell: 1.3201 Take profit: 1.3155

Sell: 1.3145 Take profit: 1.3070

qTYg93lty1ZupUjQ4NzVZF_J13OS_ONC34vwpydu

For the currency pair Australian dollar / Dollar, the key levels on the H1 scale are 0.7391, 0.7313, 0.7270, 0.7238, 0.7180, 0.7152 and 0.7113. Here, we are following the ascending structure of January 3. The short-term upward movement is possible in the range of 0.7238 - 0.7270 and the breakdown of the latter value will lead to the movement to the level of 0.7313, near which consolidation is expected. The potential value for the top is considered to be the level of 0.7391 and we expect a movement to this level after the breakdown of 0.7315.

The consolidated movement is possible in the range of 0.7180 - 0.7152 and the breakdown of the latter value will lead to a prolonged correction. Here, the target is 0.7113 and this level is the key support for the upward structure.

The main trend is the ascending structure of January 3.

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 0.7238 Take profit: 0.7270

Buy: 0.7273 Take profit: 0.7312

Sell: 0.7180 Take profit: 0.7155

Sell: 0.7150 Take profit: 0.7120

oVuqPZLzyxjHiw9OkN6EF8-I5t28Aviw-tJzbemC

For the currency pair Euro / Yen, the key levels on the H1 scale are 127.22, 126.70, 125.79, 125.15, 123.74 and 123.05. Here, we continue to follow the rising structure of January 3. At the moment, the price is in a deep correction. An upward movement is expected after the breakdown of 125.15. In this case, the target is 125.79 and price consolidation is near this level. The breakdown of 125.80 must be accompanied by a pronounced upward movement. Here, the goal is 126.70. The potential value for the top is considered the level of 127.22, after reaching which we expect a consolidated movement, as well as a rollback to the top.

The short-term downward movement is possible in the range of 123.74 - 123.05 and the breakdown of the latter value will have to form a downward structure. In this case, the potential target is 122.03, up to this level, we expect clearance of expressed initial conditions for the downward cycle.

The main trend is the ascending structure of January 3, the stage of deep correction.

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 125.15 Take profit: 125.76

Buy: 125.82 Take profit: 126.70

Sell: 123.70 Take profit: 123.10

Sell: 123.05 Take profit: 122.10

pBketDRPHP96DoCOgTCn1hWkowls06IgkLC5x7wE

For the currency pair Pound / Yen, the key levels on the H1 scale are 145.74, 144.44, 143.91, 142.82, 141.58, 141.04 and 140.21. Here, we are following the development of the ascending structure of January 15. An upward movement is expected after the breakdown of 142.82. In this case, the target is 143.91 and in the range of 143.91 - 144.44 is the price consolidation. The potential value for the top is considered the level of 145.74, upon reaching which we expect a rollback downwards.

The short-term downward movement is possible in the range of 141.58 - 141.04 and the breakdown of the last value will lead to an in-depth correction. Here, the goal is 140.21 and this level is the key support for the top.

The main trend is the local ascending structure of January 15.

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 142.84 Take profit: 143.90

Buy: 144.45 Take profit: 145.70

Sell: 141.55 Take profit: 141.05

Sell: 141.00 Take profit: 140.30

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Intraday technical levels and trading recommendations for EUR/USD for January 18, 2019

analytics5c41b69b328f9.png

Since June 2018, the EUR/USD pair has been moving sideways with a slight bearish tendency. Narrow sideway consolidations have been maintained within the depicted daily movement channel.

On November 13, the EUR/USD pair demonstrated recent bullish recovery around 1.1220-1.1250 where the lower limit of the channel as well as the depicted demand zone came to meet the pair.

Bullish fixation above 1.1420 was needed to enhance a further bullish movement towards 1.1520. However, the market has demonstrated significant bearish rejection around 1.1420 few times so far.

Last week, a recent attempt of a bullish breakout above 1.1520 (the upper limit of the depicted movement channel) was executed. However, significant signs of bearish rejection were expressed below 1.1520 and 1.1420 on the daily charts.

This renders the recent bullish breakout above 1.1420 and 1.1520 as a false breakout. Hence, any bullish pullback towards 1.1420 can be considered as a valid SELL entry for intraday traders.

The current decline below the key-level of 1.1400 encourages more sideway consolidations that may extend down to 1.1250 again where bullish rejection can be anticipated for a valid BUY entry.

On the other hand, in case a successful bullish breakout above 1.1420 is achieved again, this enhances a further bullish advance towards 1.1520, 1.1600 (October's High).

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Palladium for the first time in history priced more than gold

On Thursday closing of trading, January 17, the cost of palladium for the first time in history exceeded $1,400 per troy ounce. The price of precious metals in the course of trading rose by 5.4% to $1,439.29 per 1 ounce.

Currently, its quotes continue to grow, ignoring signals of weakening global demand. Recall that since August last year, metal prices jumped more than 65%.

J5Aqb9asl0nemWv5bBUKAhJeGyXoEpEzcLzg7e4L

For a long time, the palladium market remains in short supply. In this regard, Scotiabank analysts are confident that in the future, the difference between demand and supply of palladium in the world market will increase. According to the forecasts of the analytical company Metals Focus and the Institute of Geotechnologies, the deficit of precious metals will continue in the coming year. According to expert estimates, the palladium deficit in the world will reach 1.4 million ounces by the end of 2019. Analysts attribute this to the growth in consumption in the automotive industry, where the priority is the production of hybrid cars and gasoline-powered cars.

Over the past three years, the cost of palladium increased by a record of 170% and an increase of 19% by the end of 2018. Not a single metal showed similar results, experts emphasized. However, despite the rise in the price of palladium, investors mostly continue to ignore this precious metal. Analysts are confident that it is great for investing, and the upward trend of this metal may intensify.

Recall on January 9, 2019, the palladium set a new record value of $ 1,329 for 1 ounce. According to experts, it has become more expensive than gold. According to economists, palladium quotes will maintain an uptrend amid rising geopolitical tensions and steadily high demand from the automotive industry.

Investors in palladium should weigh all the risks when buying the precious metal. Stable demand for it from the global automotive industry can provide a disservice to market players. The flip side of the popularity of precious metals from automakers is the strong dependence of the price of palladium on the situation in this market. In case of problems with automakers, the demand for metal may weaken and its cost has been sharply reduced. A number of car companies are looking for an alternative to palladium since its price and shortage in the market contribute to higher production costs.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Simplified Wave Analysis of GOLD for the week of January 18

Large-scale graph:

The price movement of the gold market since mid-August last year is set by an upward wave and reached a strong level of resistance. In this case, the wave structure does not look complete.

EDDeczUB_Pd0yTc20Sf-fA0Ius29EjjuvOab_lYF

Medium-scale graph:

The ascending section of November 13 gave rise to the final part (C) in the larger-scale structure on H4. The probability of the onset of the oncoming counter-corrective wave is high.

5j8BBsw8Kl1EJmuo7YMHXHXrA3mTTd_0c0kgxvSS

Small-scale graph:

The bearish wave of January 4 at the time of analysis does not have a turning potential but may become the basis for a larger reversal pattern in the future.

Forecast and recommendations:

The current time period is not the best situation to trade gold. The estimated purchase potential has been exhausted and no conditions have been created for sales. It is recommended to refrain from transactions until clearer conditions appear on the instrument market.

Resistance zones:

- 1305.0 / 1310.0

Support areas:

- 1255.0 / 1250.0

Explanations of the figures:

The simplified wave analysis uses waves consisting of 3 parts (A – B – C). Three consecutive graphs are used for analysis. Each of these analyzes the last incomplete wave. Zones show calculated areas with the highest probability of reversal. The arrows indicate the wave marking by the method used by the author. The solid background shows the formed structure and the dotted exhibits the expected movement.

Note: The wave algorithm does not take into account the duration of tool movements over time. To conduct a trade transaction, you need confirmation signals from the trading systems you use!

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Analysis of Gold for January 18, 2019

analytics5c41af62122b0.png

Recently, Gold has finally managed to break through the key support cluster at the price of $1,286.00, which is a sign that sellers took control over the buyers. I have found the breakout of the trading range (6 days), which is another sign of weakness. Gold is trading inside of the downward Pitchfork channel. Key resistance became previous key support (white shape on the chart) at the price of $1,286.00.

Trading recommendations for today: We are selling gold from the $1,284.00 with the profit targets at the price of $1,276.20 and at the price of $1,264.50. Protective stop order is placed above the $1,295.00.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Technical analysis of AUD/USD for January 18, 2019

analytics5c41a5e0c8468.png

Overview:

The AUD/USD pair is set above strong support at the level of 0.7046 which coincides with the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level. This support has been rejected four times confirming the veracity of the uptrend. Hence, major support is seen at the level of 0.7046, because the trend is still showing strength above it. Accordingly, the pair is still in the uptrend in the area of 0.7046 and 0.7168. The AUD/USD pair is trading in a bullish trend from the last support line of 0.7112 towards the first resistance level of 0.7168 in order to test it. This is confirmed by the RSI indicator signaling that we are still in the bullish trending market. Now, the pair is likely to begin an ascending movement to the point of 0.7168 and further to the level of 0.7219. The level of 0.7389 will act as major resistance and the double top is already set at the point of 0.7389. At the same time, if there is a breakout at the support levels of 0.7112 and 0.7046, this scenario may be invalidated. Overall, however, we still prefer the bullish scenario.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Technical analysis of NZD/USD for January 18, 2019

analytics5c419b1120a8c.png

Overview:

The NZD/USD pair breached resistance which had turned into strong support at the level of 0.6705 this week. The level of 0.6705 coincides with a golden ratio (61.8% of Fibonacci), which is expected to act as major support today. The RSI is considered to be overbought, because it is above 70. The RSI is still signaling that the trend is upward as it is still strong above the moving average (100). Besides, note that the pivot point is seen at the point of 0.6882. This suggests that the pair will probably go up in the coming hours. Accordingly, the market is likely to show signs of a bullish trend. In other words, buy orders are recommended to be placed above 0.6800 with the first target at the level of 0.6882. From this point, the pair is likely to begin an ascending movement to the point of 0.6882 and further to the level of 0.6984. The level of 0.6984 will act as strong resistance. However, if there is a breakout at the support level of 0.6705, this scenario may become invalidated.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

BITCOIN Analysis for January 18, 2019

Bitcoin managed to climb higher above the dynamic level resistance of Kumo Cloud, Tenkan, Kijun, and 20 EMA resistance recently. The price is currently heading towards the 200 EMA resistance at $3,700 area. If is broken above, further bullish pressure towards $4,000 is expected in the coming days. Bitcoin is still quite volatile, trading inside the corrective range. Amid Chikou span clearing the price line resistance as well as breaking above Kumo resistance area, the dynamic levels are now acting as active support. Such movement is expected to lead to further bullish momentum in the future. As the price remains above $3,500-600 support area while being supported by the dynamic levels, bullish pressure is expected to persist in the coming days.

SUPPORT: 3,000, 3,500, 3,600

RESISTANCE: 3,700, 4,000, 4,250

BIAS: BULLISH

MOMENTUM: VOLATILE

analytics5c41947019a66.png

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Trading Plan 01/18/2019

The big picture: The market is determined by the direction.

Until the end of January, the market should determine the direction to the beginning of the year.

There are too many uncertainties as government " Shutdown" in the USA continues which is strongly negative.

The situation with Brexit has become even more confusing, after two ballots in the British Parliament. In the first ballot signed by Prime Minister May, the parliament rejected the agreement with the EU but the second vote confirmed the confidence of Prime Minister May. There are a variety of options varies from the exit of Britain from the EU without an agreement to a new referendum on Brexit.

The next important event for the euro is the ECB meeting on January 24th. It is possible that the market will hold in the range until this point.

We buy euros at the breakthrough of 1.1490.

We are ready to sell the euro from 1.1300 down.

a63EHyaSu5U-JHs89EtOi6FFv3LHVRPd6gzfedEC

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Indicator analysis. Daily review for January 18, 2019 for the pair GBP / USD

Trend analysis (Fig. 1).

On Friday, work down from the first lower target of 1.2925 is a rolling level of 14.6% (yellow dotted line).

gbpusd-d1-instaforex-companies-group.png

Fig. 1 (daily schedule).

Comprehensive analysis:

- indicator analysis - down;

- Fibonacci levels - down;

- volumes - down;

- candlestick analysis - down;

- trend analysis - up;

- Bollinger lines - down;

- weekly schedule - down.

General conclusion:

On Friday, work down from the first lower target of 1.2925 is a rolling level of 14.6% (yellow dotted line).

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Indicator analysis. Daily review for January 18, 2019 for the pair EUR / USD

Trend analysis (Fig. 1).

On Friday, the price will move up. The first upper target of 1.1418 is the recoiling level of 23.6% (yellow dotted line).

eurusd-d1-instaforex-companies-group.png

Fig. 1 (daily schedule).

Comprehensive analysis:

- indicator analysis - up;

- Fibonacci levels - up;

- volumes - up;

- candlestick analysis - up;

- trend analysis - down;

- Bollinger lines - down;

- weekly schedule - down.

General conclusion:

On Friday, the price will move up. The first upper target of 1.1418 is the recoiling level of 23.6% (yellow dotted line).

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Forecast for GBP / USD pair on January 18, 2019

GBP / USD pair

The British pound continues to grow on the optimism of the new "improved" agreement with the EU. Readiness to review the agreement was announced yesterday by EU negotiator, Michel Barnier. The sterling pound added 105 points. Growth started from supporting the MACD line on the daily chart. Growth may continue the price channel line to the level of 1.3037 (near the maximum of August 30 last year). A Fixation above the line will allow the price to consolidate for a further increase, however, its growth seems as unreliable as in the first week of November.

The development of decline is possible after the departure of the price under the MACD line on both daily and H4 charts. The price levels on both charts are approximately the same at 1.2842. In this case, we expect a decline to the nearest target on the support line of the price channel of 1.2669, which coincides with the January 15 minimum.

mJmwQt6Dubl0a4sUJSvdjN4LvyDl8LBfN2qC4Gti

I-wIt9TPvCyF5C7TewqBWtV8zjG1qe0rqZEXUG68

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Wave analysis of GBP / USD for January 18. 1,3000 can become an unbearable barrier for the pound

analytics5c4183b919a2b.png

Wave counting analysis:

On January 17, the GBP / USD pair gained about 105 bp. The amplitude of the instrument has again grown to its usual values. However, an unsuccessful attempt to break through the level of 76.4% may lead not only to the departure of quotations from the reached maximums but also to the completion of the construction of the entire upward set of waves according to Fibonacci. On the other hand, the news background is not in favor of the pound sterling, however, the currency continues to grow. The pair continues to move mainly to three wave structures.

Shopping goals:

1.2997 - 76.4% Fibonacci

Sales targets:

1.2716 - 38.2% Fibonacci

1.2609 - 23.6% Fibonacci

General conclusions and trading recommendations:

The pair GBP / USD made an unsuccessful attempt to break through the level of 76.4% Fibonacci, which suggests that the instrument is ready for building a downward set of waves.The wave pattern is now ambiguous. You can try to sell the pair based on the construction of the downward wave, as the level of 76.4% keeps the pair from further growth. But in any case, news coming from the UK can make adjustments to the wave picture at any time.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Wave analysis of EUR / USD for January 18. A pair of slowly slipping under the 14 figure

analytics5c4183823550b.png

On Thursday, January 17, trading ended for EUR / USD by a decrease of as little as 5 bp. Thus, the uptrend trend, taking its beginning on November 12, takes an ambiguous and complex look, but retains the prospects for its development. The whole wave takes the form of a diagonal triangle. Reducing the pair continuously can lead to a strong complication of the current wave pattern. Nevertheless, an unsuccessful attempt to break through to the nearest Fibonacci levels could lead to a resumption of a rise within wave 5.

Sales targets:

1.1345 - 38.2% Fibonacci

1.1315 - 23.6% Fibonacci

Shopping goals:

1.1599 - 161.8% Fibonacci

1.1677 - 200.0% Fibonacci

General conclusions and trading recommendations:

The pair continues to build the estimated wave 4, in s. Since the wave with does not look fully equipped, I expect the resumption of raising the tool and recommend purchases with targets located near the estimated marks 1.1599 and 1.1677. More so, I recommend placing protective orders below the 23.6% Fibonacci level, which is the minimum of the expected wave of 2, in s.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Trading plan for 18/01/2019

Trading plan for 18/01/2019:

There was a rather calm session in Asia, although the risk might increase after some publication of reports of possible abolition of import duties imposed by the US on China.

At the currency market, the USD / JPY jumped to 109.40, AUD and NZD rebounded from some of the weaknesses from previous days. AUD / USD returned under 0.72, NZD / USD is at 0.6770.

On the stock market, we have increases based on the wave of improvement in sentiment. Chinese Shanghai Composite gains 1.5% and Japanese Nikkei grows by 1.3%Crude oil found support in improving sentiment and WTI raised to 56.7 USD and is the highest since 11 January. There is nothing new about the gold - still around the level of 1292 USD.The data from Japan passed without reaction. In December CPI, as expected, amounted to 0.3% y/y, but core inflation fell to 0.7% from 0.9%, although it was expected to be released at 0.8%.

On Friday, the 18th of January, the event calendar is rich in important data releases like Retail Sales With Auto Fuel from the UK, Consumer Price Index data from Canada, Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization form the US. Moreover, there is a speech from FOMC member John Williams later on the day.

GBP/USD analysis for 18/01/2019:

At the beginning British Prime, Minister Theresa May was to present a further plan of action next Monday after parliament rejected the draft agreement previously agreed with the EU on Tuesday. Now Andrea Leadsom from the Conservative Party has revealed that the vote in the House of Commons on the new action plan will take place on Tuesday, 29 January. A government will propose a vote, but one can also submit amendments.In the meantime, Prime Minister May conduct cross-party talks that began yesterday evening. Labor Party leader Jeremy Corbyn is the only representative of the party who refused to participate in the talks. At the same time, he rejects calls for a referendum to be repeated. However, the Tories turned to high-level Labor party members to break Corbyn's resistance for the sake of a plan of agreement with the EU.

According to reports, the option of a customs union with the EU is gaining popularity among British politicians. Especially if nothing changes about the backstop, i.e. the emergency plan of temporary arrangements for the future border between Northern Ireland and Ireland, if no agreement could be reached by the end of the transitional period. The customs union is a solution that, however, needs cross-party support because it somehow contradicts the idea of Brexit. On the other hand, EU negotiator Michel Barnier said, that if the UK relaxed its conditions, the EU is ready to move immediately on its side.

Let's now take a look at the GBP/USD technical picture at the H4 time frame. According to the Fibonacci projections, the next target for bulls is seen at 61.8% Fibonacci Extension of the last corrective swing down has been hit already. Moreover, the price has made a new local high at the level of 1.3000, just below the long-term trend line resistance around the level of 1.1315. The market conditions remain overbought and despite the fact, that the momentum is still strong and positive, there is a clear bearish divergence forming between the price and the momentum oscillator. This is why the move up might not be that strong as it seems and the corrective pull-back might occur any-time soon. The targets for the corrective pull-back are seen at the levels of 1.2928 and in the case of a deeper pull-back - at 1.2832. The short-term trend still remains bullish.

analytics5c417f905d8d9.jpg

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Forecast for EUR / USD pair on January 18, 2019

EUR / USD pair

On Thursday, the euro consolidated below the price channel line of the daily chart on the background of a neutral economic and political situation, helped by the indicator line of balance. The Marlin indicator s is still developing in the negative zone on the daily and H4 chart but there is no reversal sign on H4.

Today, the data on industrial production for December are released in the United States with a forecast of 0.2% and an increase in capacity utilization from 78.5% to 78.6%. Perhaps the data will help the price to increase with a decrease. We are waiting for the euro at 1.1302 (minimum of October 31) for several days.

In the case of a speculative outbreak, it is likely that it will stop in the range of 1.1436 / 56, which is formed by the MACD lines of both graphs.

wm15CFmhylLzAps2DCfMMbravMJqcHmresO9pjHU

SCRQmYtYJReYNkE7aMhCUyFNsEn6hZ6fjjM4eoOT

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com