Technical analysis of USD/JPY for November 20, 2014

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Fundamental overview:


USD/JPY is expected to consolidate with a bullish bias after hitting a seven-year high 118.25 this morning. FOMC October meeting minutes released overnight were relatively uneventful after providing little insight into whether the pledge to keep rates low for a "considerable period" would be scrapped at the next meeting. Still, the Fed minutes reinforced views that the U.S. central bank remains on track to raise rates ahead of central banks in Europe and Japan. USD/JPY is underpinned by the weak yen sentiment after Bank of Japan on Wednesday decided to maintain its large-scale easing policy of pumping money into the economy at an annual pace of JPY80 trillion by an 8-1 vote, indicating more consensus among the policy board's nine members compared to the 5-4 vote at its previous meeting. USD/JPY is also supported by the higher U.S. Treasury yields (10-year at 2.359% versus 2.322% late Tuesday) and demand from Japan's importers. But USD/JPY gains are tempered by Japan's export sales. No FX impact from mixed U.S. housing data as surprise 2.8% on-month drop in U.S. October housing starts (versus forecast for 0.8% increase) offset more-than-expected 4.8% rise in building permits (versus forecast +0.6%).


Technical comment:

Daily chart is positive-biased as MACD is bullish, stochastics stays elevated at the overbought levels, 5 and 15-day moving averages are advancing.


Trading recommendations:

The pair is trading above its pivot point. It is likely to trade in a higher range as far as it remains above its pivot point. As long as the price is keeping above its pivot point, a long position is recommended with the first target at 119 and the second target at 119.70. In an alternative scenario, if the price moves below its pivot points, short positions are recommended with the first target at 116.75. A break of this target would push the pair further downwards and one may expect the second target at 116.35. The pivot point is at 117.40.


Resistance levels:

119

119.70

120.35


Support levels:

116.75

116.35

116.05


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Technical analysis of USD/CHF for November 20, 2014

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Fundamental overview:


USD/CHF is expected to consolidate with a bearish bias after hitting a three-week low at 0.9530 on Wednesday. CHF sentiment is boosted by the rise in Switzerland ZEW-Credit Suisse indicator of economic sentiment to minus 7.6 in November from minus 30.7 in October. USD/CHF is also weighed by the franc demand on buoyant CHF/JPY cross amid the weak yen sentiment. But USD/CHF losses are tempered by the ultra-loose Swiss National Bank's monetary policy.


Technical comments:

Daily chart is negative-biased as MACD and stochastics are bearish, five-day moving average is below 15-day moving average and is declining.


Trading recommendations:

The pair is trading below its pivot point. It is likely to trade in a lower range as far as it remains below its pivot point. Short position is recommended with the first target at 0.9555. A break of this target will move the pair further downwards to 0.9555. The pivot point stands at 0.9605. In case the price moves in the opposite direction and bounces back from the support level, then it will move above its pivot point. It is likely to move further to the upside. In that scenario, a long position is recommended with the first target at 0.9625 and the second target at 0.9655.


Resistance levels:

0.9625

0.9655

0.9690



Support levels:
0.9555

0.9515

0.9785


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Technical analysis of NZD/USD for November 20, 2014

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Fundamental overview:


NZD/USD is expected to trade in a lower range. It is undermined by weak dairy prices, 1.5% on-quarter drop in New Zealand 3Q producer input prices and 1.1% drop in output prices. FOMC October meeting minutes released overnight were relatively uneventful after providing little insight into whether the pledge to keep rates low for a "considerable period" would be scrapped at the next meeting. Still, the Fed minutes reinforced views that the U.S. central bank remains on track to raise rates ahead of central banks in Europe and Japan. But NZD/USD losses are tempered by the Kiwi demand on buoyant NZD/JPY cross amid the weak yen sentiment and NZD-USD interest differential.


Technical comment:
Daily chart is mixed as MACD is bullish, but stochastics turned bearish near the overbought levels.


Trading recommendations:
The pair is trading below its pivot point. It is likely to trade in a lower range as far as it remains below its pivot point. Short position is recommended with the first target at 0.7820. A break of this target will move the pair further downwards to 0.7790. The pivot point stands at 0.7880. In case the price moves in the opposite direction and bounces back from the support level, then it will move above its pivot point. It is likly to move further to the upside. In that scenario, a long position is recommended with the first target at 0.7920 and the second target at 0.7965.


Resistance levels:

0.7920

0.7965

0.8005

Support levels:

0.7820

0.7790

0.7750


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Technical analysis of GBP/JPY for November 20, 2014

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Fundamental overview:


GBP/JPY is expected to consolidate with a bullish bias. It is supported by the weak yen sentiment, firmer EUR/USD undertone and demand from Japan's importers. Sterling sentiment was boosted by less-dovish-than-expected Bank of England MPC November meeting minutes showing a seven against two vote for leaving rates unchanged at 0.5% and deepening divisions among the seven-member majority who favored keeping rates on hold. But GBP/JPY gains are tempered by Japan's export sales.


Technical comment:

Daily chart is positive-biased as MACD is bullish, stochastics stays elevated at the overbought levels, 5 and 15-day moving averages are advancing.


Trading recommendations:

The pair is trading above its pivot point. It is likely to trade in a higher range as far as it remains above its pivot point. As long as the price is keeping above its pivot point, a long position is recommended with the first target at 186.15 and the second target at 187. In an alternative scenario, if the price moves below its pivot points, short positions are recommended with the first target at 183.35. A break of this target would push the pair further downwards and one may expect the second target at 182.80. The pivot point is at 184.15.


Resistance levels:

186.15

187

187.75

Support levels:

183.35

182.80

182.35


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EUR/NZD : analysis for November 20, 2014

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Overview:


In our last analysis, EUR/NZD has been trading upwards. As we expected, the price tested and rejected from the level of 1.6035 in an ultra high volume (selling climax). According to the daily time frame, we can observe demand on the market in a volume below average. The price rejected from our submajor Fibonacci retracement 61.8% at 1.6035. I found the support level at the price of 1.5870. Be careful when buying EUR/NZD at this stage and watch for potential selling opportunities after retracement.


Daily Fibonacci pivot levels:


Resistance levels:


R1: 1.5998


R2: 1.6042


R3: 1.6113


Support levels:


S1: 1.5857


S2: 1.5813


S3: 1.5743


Trading recommendations: Be careful when buying EUR/NZD since we may expect reaction from sellers


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Gold : analysis for November 20, 2014

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Overview :


Since our last analysis, gold has been trading downwards. As we expected, the price tested the level of 1,174.90 in a very high volume. According to the daily time frame, we can observe supply in a volume above average, which is a sign that we may see possible bearish movement. I have placed Fibonacci retracement to find potential support levels and I got Fibonacci retracement 38.2% at the price of 1,176.00 (currently on the test) and Fibonacci retracement 61.8% at the price of 1,160.00 Anyway, my advice is to watch for potential buying opportunities after a bearish corrective phase (buy on the low).


Daily pivot Fibonacci points:


Resistance levels:


R1: 1,200.45


R2: 1,207.01


R3: 1,217.63


Support levels:


S1: 1,179.21


S2: 1,172.65


S3: 1,162.03


Trading recommendations: Watch for potential buying opportunities after retracement (buy on the lows).


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Elliott wave analysis of EUR/JPY for November 20 - 2014

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Today's support and resistance levels:


R3: 150.00


R2: 149.52


R1: 149.13


Current spot: 148.78


S1: 148.33


S2: 147.83


S3: 147.44


Technical summary:


The direct break above resistance at 148.30 calls for an extension in wave v higher to 152.15. Double extensions in the currency market are a rare phenomenon, which of course signals strong underlying weakness. Short-term support is now found at 148.33 and again at 147.83, which ideally will protect the downside for the continuation higher towards the extension target at 152.15. At this point, on a break below 146.70 will indicate that wave v and (i) is over and a deeper correction towards 142.06 was unfolding.


Trading recommendation:


Our stop at 148.50 was hit for a loss. Trying to jump train now feels a little risky, so we will stay neutral for now.


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Technical analysis of USD/CAD for November 20, 2014

General outlook for 20/11/2014 10:30 CET


The corrective cycle is still in progress but there are first clues that the downtrend might resume soon to complete the remaining waves in the downward cycle. Only a clear breakout above the level of 1.1394 would invalidate the current bearish outlook and put the recent swing highs into the test.


Support/Resistance:


1.1120 - Wave 4 Blue Low


1.1173 - WS2


1.1224 - WS1


1.1265 - Technical Support


1.1308 - Intraday Support


1.1311 - Weekly Pivot


1.1369 - Intraday Resistance


1.1394 - Blue Impulsive Count Invalidation Line


Trading recommendations:


Day traders should keep the opened sell orders with SL just above the level of 1.1394 and TP at the level of 1.1220.


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Technical analysis of EUR/JPY for November 20, 2014

General outlook for 20/11/2014 10:00 CET


The corrective cycle has never appeared, so the count has been adjusted to incorporate new wave developments. The most difficult part of the new count has been labeled as Leading Diagonal wave -i- and this maneuver could include the new impulsive count into the wave progression. Moreover, one more impulsive cycle has been added to the overall count (purple count). Please notice all the corrective waves labeled as wave four of a various degree are very short in price and time. That is why the overall wave development might indicate the wave 3 black of a very large cycle is unfolding. Nevertheless, there is always a possibility that the whole impulsive wave progression as indicated by the alternative black labeling is really wave alt:5 of the very large impulsive structure forming the level of 94.22 that started in July 2012.


Currently one more wave is needed to complete the overall structure labeled as green impulsive wave progression with the projected target levels labeled as orange rectangles on H4 time frame chart.


Support/Resistance:


151.50 - 152.60 - Projected Target Level For Wave (v) Green (Typical)


149.37 - 149.57 - Projected Target Level For Wave (v) Green (Minimum)


152.02 - WR3


149.14 - Local High


149.05 - WR2


148.34 - Intraday Support


148.01 - WR1


147.46 - Intraday Support


146.53 - Technical Support


145.02 - Weekly Pivot


Trading recommendations:


The first level for day traders to join the up trend is the level of 148.01. Nevertheless, if this level is broken, then the next one should be at the level of 147.42. Please set the SL rather tight, like 20-30 pips for intraday trading and the TP level should be placed at the level of 148.37 - 149.57 zone.


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#USDX Technical analysis for November 20, 2014

The Dollar index remains inside its sideways trading range. I do not expect the Dollar index to continue much longer inside this range but until it breaks out I need to remain patient and wait for a valid signal. The Dollar index remains in a longer-term up trend and has not given any signs that bulls should exit their long positions yet.


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Black line = support


Red line = resistance


The Dollar index contnues to trade on top of the Ichimoku cloud. The sideways consolidation could very well be a bullish flag within the longer-term bullish flag I have previously mentioned. If the Dollar index breaks above 88.15, we should expect an upward move towards 91. If the Dollar index breaks below 87, we should expect a pull back towards 86 at least.


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Red line = resistance


Blue line = support


The Dollar index remains in a longer-term up trend and the ichimoku cloud indicators support this. The bullish flag pattern remains valid with 91 as my 1st target. Now, that we could have a smaller bullish flag inside this larger bullish flag, the bullish scenario has more chances of success than the bearish one (pull back towards 86 or lower).


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Gold Technical analysis for November 20, 2014

Gold price reversed strongly from the 61.8% retracement yesterday and broken short-term support levels. However, the price bounced back strongly to re-test $1,200 only to continue back below $1,190 today. The short-term trend is neutral. Breaking below $1,170 and $1,145 are the signs bears are looking for the resumption of the down trend. I remain longer-term bearish targeting $1,050.


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Red line = resistance


Blue line = support


Gold price is consolidating near its highs. Support today is at $1,170-74 and resistance at $1,204. From yesterday's high, Gold price is making lower lows and lower highs in the 30 minute chart I show above.


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Gold price has reached the 61.8% retracement and got rejected. However, price remains above the ichimoku cloud and above the black supportive trend line. The kijun-sen support is at $1,175. A 4-hour close below $1,175 will signal more downside is to expected towards at least $1,150. If support at $1,145 fails to hold prices and if Gold price breaks below the cloud, then I will have confirmation of the start of the new downward move towards $1,050.


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Technical analysis of Silver for November 20, 2014


Technical outlook and chart setups:


Silver looks to have done with its retracement at $15.70/80 levels as expected earlier. The metal could be looking to turn around and resume its rally from current levels, $16.15/20. It is still recommended to remain long and also look to add positions now, for higher upside targets towards $17.00 and $17.30 levels as shown here. Support is seen at $15.20/30, followed by $15.00 while resistance is seen at $16.50 (interim), followed by $17.30, $17.60/60, $17.80/18.00 and higher respectively. A push above $16.50 from current levels would confirm that bulls are here to remain for a longer time.


Trading recommendations:


Remain long, stop at $15.30, the target is open.


Good luck!


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Technical analysis of Gold for November 20, 2014


Technical outlook and chart setups:


Gold has completed retracement around $1,175.00 levels for now and is looking to resume rally towards $1,208.00 and higher up. It is recommended to enter long positions now ($1,183.00), risk at $1,140.00. The metal could be seen targeting $1,208.00 levels at least and if breaks higher, then $1,250.00/60.00 could be well on cards. Support is seen at $1,140.00/45.00, followed by $1,030.00, while resistance is seen at $1,205.00 (interim), followed by $1,235.00, $1,250.00 and higher respectively. On the other hand, a bearish reaction at $1,208.00 could bring back bears in control and the metal could continue to slide below $1,030.00.


Trading recommendations:


Initiate long positions now at $1,1,83.00,stop $1,140.00, the target is open.


Good luck!


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Technical analysis of EUR/JPY for November 20, 2014


Technical outlook and chart setups:


The EUR/JPY pair is targeting fresh highs each trading day as seen here. The fibonacci extensions are pointing towards 150.00 and 153.00/154.00 as potential upside targets. It is recommended to buy on intraday/interday dips for now. Immediate support is seen at 145.00, followed by 143.00/142.00 and lower while resistance is seen at 150.00, followed by 154.00 (fibonacci extensions), respectively. Any dip or retracement towards 146.50 levels could be considered as an opportunity to initiate long positions, with risk below 145.00. Bulls seem to be in complete control for now and short selling should be avoided for now.


Trading recommendations:


Flat for now, looking to go long around 146.50 levels.


Good luck!


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Technical analysis of GBP/CHF for November 20, 2014


Technical outlook and chart setups:


The GBP/CHF pair breaks below 1.4975 mark and bounces off sharply towards 1.5020/30 levels as seen here. The expected fall from 1.5400/50 levels looks to be complete at least for now. A meaningful corrective rally could be underway any time now. Please note that the pair has also produced a morning star on the 4H view here, indicating a potential reversal ahead. Interim support is seen at 1.4950/40 while resistance is seen at 1.5300 (past support turned resistance), followed by 1.5450, 1.5475 and 1.5550 respectively. An aggressive way to trade could be to initiate long positions, risk below 1.4940.


Trading recommendations:


Aggressive trade is to go long now, stop at 1.4910, the target is open. Conservative trade is to remain flat and wait to sell higher.


Good luck!


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Technical Analysis on EUR/USD for November 20, 2014

The pair closed with marginal profits in yesterday's session. After 14 sessions, the pair managed to closed above 20Dsma. The prices are facing resistance at 200hrsma and 200hrema at 1.2610, the pair made a high at 1.2600. We recommend fresh buying above 1.2620 with the targets at 1.2640 and 1.2680. The prices are taking support at intraday 12ema levels and hourly 34hrsma. The support levels exist at 1.2524 and 1.2513. We recommend speculative selling below 1.2500 with the targets at 1.2475 and 1.2445. The panic will be triggered below 1.2440 with the targets at 1.2415 and 1.2360. Ahead of the economic events, the cable is trading in a silent mode with negative shades. Today, traders are turning attention on US CPI and jobs data. In the euro region, French and Spanish manufacturing, flash services data will be published. Tomorrow, ECB president Draghi's speech will give clear direction for the near- and short-term basis. On the downside, the pair has support at 1.2350, below this, 1.2226 is the major support level.


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Technical Analysis of GBP/USD for November 20, 2014

After a 5-day fall, the cable paused its down ticks in the previous session. It gained 50 pips at the end of the day. The cable took the support at 1.5590 levels and moved higher. In case a daily close is below 1.5590, the cable can extend its downtrend towards 1.5460, 1.5450, and 1.5430. We have been recommending the same for the last 2 days. The prices are taking support at 1.5590, we can call it as a minor double bottom. Today, traders are keeping an eye on CPI, jobs data and UK retail sales data. Ahead of the economic events, the cable is trading in a silent mode. The prices are taking support at 1.5667, below this 1.5657 and 1.5646 are the intraday support levels. The prices are facing resistance at 1.5686, above this at 1.5700, 1.5720, and 1.5736. The cable is trading in a tight range between the 1.5736 and 1.5590 levels. The prices are making lower highs on the hourly chart. From an intraday view, we recommend fresh selling below 1.5660 with the target at 1.5646, below this 1.5625 and 1.5600 are open targets.


Trade: Selling below 1.5660.


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Technical analysis of EUR/USD for November 20, 2014

!EURUSD.jpg When the European market opens, some economic news will be released such as German PPI m/m, French Flash Manufacturing PMI, French Flash Services PMI, German Flash Manufacturing PMI, German Flash Services PMI, Flash Manufacturing PMI, Flash Services PMI, and Consumer Confidence. Besides, the US will release the economic data such as the CPI m/m, Core CPI m/m, Unemployment Claims, Flash Manufacturing PMI, Philly Fed Manufacturing Index, Existing Home Sales, CB Leading Index m/m, and Natural Gas Storage. So, amid the reports, EUR/USD will move low to medium volatility during this day.

TODAY TECHNICAL LEVELS:

Breakout BUY Level: 1.2597.

Strong Resistance:1.2589.

Original Resistance: 1.2577.

Inner Sell Area: 1.2565.

Target Inner Area: 1.2535.

Inner Buy Area: 1.2505.

Original Support: 1.2493.

Strong Support: 1.2481.

Breakout SELL Level: 1.2473.

Disclaimer: Trading Forex (foreign exchange) on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.


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Technical analysis of USD/JPY for November 20, 2014

!USDJPY.jpg In Asia, Japan will release the Trade Balance, Flash Manufacturing PMI, and BOJ Monthly Report. The US economic calendar will added with some important data such as CPI m/m, Core CPI m/m, Unemployment Claims, Flash Manufacturing PMI, Philly Fed Manufacturing Index, Existing Home Sales, CB Leading Index m/m, and Natural Gas Storage. So, there is a big probability the USD/JPY pair will move with low to medium volatility during the day.

TODAY TECHNICAL LEVELS:

Resistance. 3: 118.74.

Resistance. 2: 118.52.

Resistance. 1: 118.27.

Support. 1: 117.99.

Support. 2: 117.75.

Support. 3: 117.52.

Disclaimer: Trading Forex (foreign exchange) on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.


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Short term forecast and an intraday recommendation on USD/CAD for November 20, 2014

The Federal meeting minutes and housing data helped the US dollar trade higher in yesterday's session. After 3 days of consolidation, the pair managed to trade at a week's high. On a positional basis, as we recommended earlier, in case if the pair closes above 1.1386 on a weekly basis, it can challenge 260 odd pips on the higher side. As we recommended earlier, the pair will challenge 1.1530 in the near term, 1.1644 and 1.1685 in the medium term and 1.1900, 1.2350 in the long-term perspective. The pair has resistance at 1.1425 on a daily closing basis. Today, traders are focused on US jobs, CPI data and Canada wholesale sales data. The pair continues its flag pattern in the hourly chart, height of the pole is 345 pips. The pair has multiple hourly resistance at 1.1360, above this 1.1393 and 1.1402 are the major resistance levels. The support exists at the 1.1300 and 1.1293 levels. In case the pair manages to close above 1.1402 levels, it can challenge 100 and 140 odd pips in a day or two. For a speculative purpose, the pair gave an upside breakout from head and shoulder pattern in the hourly chart. In case the hourly candle closes above 1.1360, it can challenge 1.1400 and 1.1410 in intraday. We have been recommending using every dip to buy with the above positional targets.


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Trading recommendations on Gold for November 20, 2014

The yellow metal was rejected at the 61.8 fib level and 50Dsma, fell below 20Dsma and closed below that. Until the prices close above $1,197.00, bears have an upper hand. The rate hike debate is still active forcing the metal prices to fall. Swiss referendum at the end of November will show immediate impact on gold prices. A yes vote will ignite the bullish run in the short term, but chances are remote. Today, ahead of China PMI data the metal is trading on a bearish note and below 20Dsma at the Asian session. At the evening session, the CPI data and US unemployment claims data will drive the metal prices. Currently, the metal is trading above $1,180.00 after the Federal minutes. From an intraday view, the metal has support at $1,180.00, below this at $1,175.00 and $1,173.00. The selling pressure will be triggered below $1,180.00; panic will emerge below $1,173.00 towards $1,168.00, $1,160.00, and $1,158.00. We can expect steep fall below $1,146.00. On the upside, resistance exists at $1,191.00, $1,197.00, and 1204.00. The hourly trading pattern is framed between $1,190.00 and $1,180.00. As of now today, on the h4 chart the prices are making higher lows and higher highs.


Trade:


Buying above $1,190.00.


Selling below $1,180.00, safe selling below $1,179.00.


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Daily analysis of USDX for November 20, 2014

The USDX has not made significant movements affecting the current trend on the daily chart. This instrument is held above the support level of 87.25, a fairly strong area, considering that the USDX could have made a breakout of that level a couple of weeks ago. The next goal for this instrument remains the resistance level of 88.63. The MACD indicator remains in the negative territory.


Dailychart's resistance levels: 88.63 / 90.40


Daily chart's support levels: 87.35 / 86.20


USDXDaily.png

On the H1 chart, the USDX has moved in a range above the 200-day moving average. So, the USDX is likely to rise again to the resistance level of 87.86. A break of that level could lead the USDX to rise to the level of 88.15. For now, the MACD indicator remains in the neutral territory.


H1 chart's resistance levels: 87.86 / 88.15


H1 chart's support levels: 87.58 / 87.28


USDXH1.png


Trading recommendations for today: Based on the H1 chart, place buy (long) orders only if the USD Index breaks with a bullish candlestick; the resistance level is at 87.86, take profit is at 88.15, and stop loss is at 87.57.


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Daily analysis of GBP/USD for November 20, 2014

On the H4 chart, the GBP/USD pair had a bullish momentum above the trend line at the 1.5615 level, even if this pair is currently facing resistance at the level of 1.5698. If the GBP/USD pair makes a bullish consolidation over that area, it is expected to rise to the level of 1.5811, which would be part of a corrective move in favor of the bearish trend. SMA 200 is maintained at the level of 1.5951.


H4chart's resistance levels: 1.5698 / 1.5811


H4chart's support levels: 1.5610 / 1.5512


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On the H1 chart, GBP/USD is forming a bullish pattern above the support level of 1.5632. If the pair manages to make a breakout at the resistance level of 1.5686, the next target would be the level of 1.5739, where the 200-day moving average is located on this chart. On the other hand, if this pair makes a bearish consolidation below the 1.5632 level, the next target would be the 1.5590 level. The MACD indicator is in the overbought zone.


H1 chart's resistance levels: 1.5686 / 1.5739


H1 chart's support levels: 1.5632 / 1.5590


GBPUSDH1.png


Trading recommendations for today: Based on the H1 chart, place sell (short) orders only if the GBP/USD pair breaks a bearish candlestick; the support level is at 1.5632, take profit is at 1.5590, and stop loss is at 1.5672.


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Technical analysis of USD/JPY for November 19, 2014

1416409339_USDJPYM30.png


Fundamental overview:


USD/JPY is expected to consolidate with a bullish bias as markets await FOMC October meeting minutes (due at 1900 GMT) for details on the monetary policy committee's outlook on health of U.S. economy and Federal Reserve's intentions for interest rates. Focus Wednesday also on Bank of Japan's interest rate decision: most market participants don't expect a back-to-back easing by the BOJ after the central bank stepped up its already aggressive easing at its Oct. 31 meeting. USD/JPY is underpinned by the yen-funded carry trades amid positive risk sentiment (VIX fear gauge eased 0.93% to 13.86; S&P 500 hit all-time high 2,056.08 overnight before closing up 0.51% at 2,051.80) on prospects of more stimulus efforts from major central banks, while a measure of German economic confidence improved for the first time in nearly a year, and U.S. NAHB housing market index rose stronger than expected to 58 in November from 54 in October (versus forecast 55). USD/JPY is also supported by the demand from Japan importers and soft yen sentiment as Prime Minister Abe on Tuesday delayed a scheduled sales-tax increase until April 2017 and confirmed a snap election. But USD/JPY gains are tempered by the Japan exporter sales and lower U.S. Treasury yields (10-year at 2.318% versus 2.340% late Monday) despite a surprise 0.2% on-month rise in U.S. October PPI (versus forecast for 0.1% decrease).


Technical comment:

Daily chart is positive-biased as MACD is bullish, stochastics stays elevated at overbought levels, 5 and 15-day moving averages are advancing.


Trading recommendations:

The pair is trading above its pivot point. It is likely to trade in a higher range as far as it remains above its pivot point. As long as the price is keeping above its pivot point, a long position is recommended with the first target at 118.05 and the second target at 118.45. In an alternative scenario, if the price moves below its pivot points, short positions are recommended with the first target at 116.35. A break of this target would push the pair further downwards and one may expect the second target at 116.05. The pivot point is at 116.75.


Resistance levels:

118.05

118.45

118.75


Support levels:

116.35

116.05

115.80


The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Technical analysis of USD/CHF for November 19, 2014

USDCHFM30.pngUSDJPYM30.png


Fundamental overview:


USD/CHF is expected to trade in a lower range as markets await FOMC October meeting minutes (due at 1900 GMT) for details on the monetary policy committee's outlook on health of U.S. economy and Federal Reserve's intentions for interest rates.It is undermined by the spillover strength from euro on the Swiss Franc and franc demand on buoyant CHF/JPY cross. But USD/CHF losses are tempered by the dovish Swiss National Bank's monetary policy.


Technical comments:

Daily chart is negative-biased as MACD and stochastics bearish, five-day moving average is falling below 15-day moving average.


Trading recommendations:

The pair is trading below its pivot point. It is likely to trade in a lower range as far as it remains below its pivot point. Short position is recommended with the first target at 0.9555. A break of this target will move the pair further downwards to 0.9555. The pivot point stands at 0.9620. In case the price moves in the opposite direction and bounces back from the support level, then it will move above its pivot point. It is likely to move further to the upside. In that scenario, a long position is recommended with the first target at 0.9655 and the second target at 0.9690.


Resistance levels:

0.9655

0.9690

0.9740


Support levels:

0.9555

0.9515

0.9785


The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com