The oil made a halt

After a stormy two-day debate, OPEC finally decided to reduce oil production by 1.2 million b / d compared with October levels. The agreement will be valid for 6 months and will help balance the market in the first half of 2019. Thus, the cartel stepped on the throat of Donald Trump, who actively urged not to do so and provide black gold prices with chances to continue the peak. The US president compared his low cost with a kind of tax cuts for the global economy. They did not hear him in Vienna and even allowed themselves to be smacked. Say, the growth of Brent and WTI will enable American manufacturers to sigh with relief.

Despite the fact that such details of the agreement do not apply, tabloids bit by bit collect information. Among the discharged were Iran, Libya, and Venezuela. The OPEC cut is estimated at 800 thousand b / d, other manufacturers, including Russia, at 400 thousand b / d. At the same time, Moscow accounts for about 200 thousand b / s. This figure appeared in the message of the Russian Federation on readiness to reduce production by 50-60 thousand b / d and gradually bring the figure to the required 200 thousand b / d.

After the announcement of the Vienna agreement, Brent soared above $ 63.5 per barrel, but the situation gradually stabilized, and the North Sea variety returned to consolidation in the $ 57.5-63.5 range. Its dynamics are affected not only by production but also by global demand, as well as fluctuations in the dollar exchange rate. In this regard, the reduction in Chinese oil imports in January-November was an occasion for sales.

Dynamics of Chinese imports of commoditiesJqa7wvAddYpO-hIE559feqlId6v_mdclGohtrvhYThe trade wars of Beijing and Washington have a negative impact on both the risk appetite of investors and the global demand for commodities on the part of China's largest consumer. In this regard, a 90-day truce is a blessing for black gold, but the market is doubted whether an agreement will be concluded or not. According to representatives of the US administration, if the parties do not come to a consensus, the States will continue to increase import duties.

The stabilization of the USD index plays a significant role in the development of the consolidation of Brent and WTI. The fall in the likelihood of the Fed's monetary policy normalization cycle in 2019 to 49% puts pressure on the US dollar, but its competitors are still not flashing: the pound falls into the abyss due to the cancellation of the draft agreement with the EU by the British Parliament in the British Parliament and pulls is the euro. Opponents find out who is the weakest link, which leads to range trading on the USD and oil index.

Technically, after reaching a target of 113% for the Shark pattern, as a rule, it is transformed into a 5-0 pattern. It is expressed in a correction to the current downtrend in the direction of 23.6%, 38.2% and 50% of the CD wave, followed by a return to sales. Moreover, the longer the consolidation in the range of $ 57.5-63.5 per barrel, the higher the chances of a sharp pullback or continuation of the southern hike.

Brent, the daily chart

INJh4c5IIb9bZGN0jbzkeGCFRJ-HjQfpcTVSziicThe material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Brexit without a deal: how to sell a pound

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British Prime Minister Theresa May suspended the process of discussing the draft agreement with the EU presented by her, causing massive sales of sterling.

May acknowledged that lawmakers are likely to refuse to accept the document. According to her, the government will start preparing the country to leave the union without a deal. After speaking, the pound collapsed to its lowest point since June 2017, then continued to decline to $ 1.25. On Tuesday, the pound is trying to show signs of life.OfZKkxOU9E2sUgie6HwfGjfpm5HPRia2bZzdfr9PAccording to banking analysts Mizuho, the aggressive fall of the British currency will not end there. The pound will continue to decline, since the EU members do not intend to revise the deal with the UK on further relations after leaving the bloc in March 2019. The decision of European officials will not affect whether May will delay the holding of parliamentary hearings on this issue or not, according to Mizuho.

With the deterioration of the situation around the "divorce" of the UK and the EU, the pound may fall already below $ 1.25 this week, bank experts predict.

Until the uncertainty regarding the parliamentary assembly is resolved, it is best for traders to sell any rally. Such advice is given in Societe Generale.

The main negative for the pound is the political deadlock and the lack of specifics on Brexit and everything connected with it. At the moment, the prospects for the pound cannot be estimated, write banking analysts. Much will depend on the parliamentary vote or on the development of events in case there will be no voting.

Euro

Falling, the pound drew the regional currency. The political risks and the weakness of the eurozone economy do not give the "bulls" on the EURUSD pair a proper turn. According to researchers, trade wars, the budget crisis in Italy, the unrest in France and Brexit increase uncertainty. The end and edge of these problems are not visible yet.

As for the "American," because of Brexit, investors are trying to hide in dollar assets. However, in terms of monetary policy, nothing has changed. The dollar is on the verge of sales, and even its ardent defender Goldman Sachs is not so sure of tightening the policy in March and warns that the US currency may come under pressure after the deterioration of FOMC forecasts in December. However, the bank continues to believe that greenback will weather the storm and continue to strengthen.mhTXx1u04x6k-Nng1M49qMpzkZ53P7gwiQxWPR1gNow, traders are not in a hurry to sell the dollar, waiting for the Fed's verdict. At the same time, it is worth noting that the slowdown in inflation in America, the ECB's continued optimism and strong data on business activity in the eurozone in December can inspire euro fans to the exploits. The currency pair EUR / USD holds above 1.13, and the chances of renewed bull attacks on the euro remain high.

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EUR and GBP: How long is the correction of the euro and pound?

The British pound regained some positions after a major drop yesterday in the news about the postponement of the Brexit vote in the British Parliament.

Meanwhile today, British Prime Minister Theresa May went to negotiate with European leaders, on which she will try to convince them to make concessions under the terms of Brexit.

European Commission President Jean-Claude Juncker has already said that a guarantee of the absence of a rigid border in Ireland is necessary, and therefore there is no space left to review the deal. The only solution is to offer more clarity and interpretation of the Brexit transaction.

Let me remind you that the European court allowed the UK to remain in the EU customs zone indefinitely, which will eliminate the need for customs control. However, the Prime Minister of Great Britain considers this as a temporary solution, as he is rejected by hard supporters of Brexit. Secondly, it cannot please one, as well as, PM May, which slows down the signing of the agreement. Supporters of the break in relations with the EU are confident that the further presence of Great Britain in the customs union with the EU will limit the possibility of entering into new trade agreements and establish their own immigration and environmental regulations.

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The UK has already announced that it is not going to revise the withdrawal agreement. The same attitude of officials to the political declaration, which was recently signed and which has no legal force.

The situation gets confused more and more.

Today's data on wage growth in the UK supported the British pound, which corrected after yesterday's fall in tandem with the US dollar but the labor market has failed to please investors.

According to a report, wages in the UK rose from August to October of this year. he report of the National Bureau of Statistics states that in the aforementioned period, the average earnings in the UK grew by 3.3% compared with the previous year, after growing by 3.1% from July to September.

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As I noted above, the number of unemployed for the period from August to October. On the contrary, increased by 20,000 people and the unemployment rate rose to 4.1% from 4%. The number of applications for unemployment benefits in November increased by 11,800.

As for the technical picture of the GBP/USD pair, only a breakthrough of resistance in the 1.2620 area will be able to form a new wave of purchases along with the demolition of a number of stop orders, which will lead to an update of the maximum of 1.2675 and 1.2720. However, any negative news from Brexit will bring pound sellers back to the market. Therefore, it will not be entirely correct to expect a larger upward correction in the current conditions.

The European currency also recovered from yesterday's decline amid a positive report from the Economic Research Institute ZEW. According to the data, the index of economic expectations rose to -17.5 points in December against -24.1 points in November of this year. Economists predicted that the index will be -24.0 points. ZEW noted that the rise in the economic expectations index is a positive development, but it should not be given too much importance. The index of current conditions in Germany in December fell by 12.9 points, to 45.3 points.

As for the technical picture of the EUR/USD pair, buyers managed to stay above the level of 1.1355, which indicates the presence of large players in the market. The current situation allows us to build a lower border of the ascending channel and count on a breakthrough of resistance 1.1390 with further growth in the area of 1.1415 and 1.1450. In the event of a decline in the euro in the afternoon, amid a good report on producer prices in the United States, support can only be expected from the large range 1.1320-1.1310.

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The fall of the dollar may begin after the December Fed meeting

Analysts at investment bank, Goldman Sachs, still predict a decline in the dollar but it may begin earlier than expected.

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According to experts, the probability of interest rate hike by the US Federal Reserve System (FRS) in March 2019 is less than 50%.

"The growth of expectations that the regulator in the foreseeable future will adhere to a more" soft "position, may provoke a weakening of the dollar. Recent statements by the Fed have only strengthened our confidence in this, "said Goldman Sachs experts.

"In the near future, the dynamics of the US currency will be determined by such factors as the Fed's comments, the course of trade negotiations between the United States and the Middle Kingdom, as well as economic forecasts for the eurozone," they added.

The most likely scenario for the bank considers the dollar to depreciate after the December Fed meeting, following of which the Central Bank may revise its forecast for the number of rate hikes next year from three to two.

Meanwhile, by the end of this year, the dollar may not become cheaper because of the lack of time for a trend reversal and the presence of strong seasonal factors supporting the "American".

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GBP / USD pair: plan for the US session on December 11. Strong demand for the pound is unlikely to continue

To open long positions on the GBP / USD pair, you need:

Buyers tried to gain a foothold above the resistance in the area of 1.2614 but failed to do so in the morning. Good data on wage growth in the UK supported the pound. However, only a real breakthrough of the area of 1.2614 will lead to a further upward correction in the pound to the area of resistance 1.2662, where I recommend taking profits today. In the case of a decrease in the pound in the afternoon, long positions can be considered to rebound from the support area of 1.2569, below of which the sellers could not leave today.

To open short positions on the GBP / USD pair, you need:

The formation of a false breakdown in the area of resistance at 1.2614 was the first signal to sell the pound but to confirm the bearish signal requires a good report on producer prices in the US, which is scheduled for the second half of the day. The main purpose of the bears will be to return to the area of a large support level of 1.2569, where I recommend taking profits. In the case of growth of the pound, you can count on short positions from the resistance of 1.2662 and 1.2714.

Indicator signals:

Moving averages

Trade is conducted under the 30- and 50-day moving averages, which indicates a continued decline in the pound.

Bollinger bands

In the case of a decrease in the pound in the afternoon, long positions can be considered immediately to rebound from the middle border of the Bollinger Bands indicator around 1.2575, which acts as a support.

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Description of indicators

MA (moving average) 50 days - yellow

MA (moving average) 30 days - green

MACD: fast EMA 12, slow EMA 26, SMA 9

Bollinger Bands 20

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EUR / USD pair: plan for the US session on December 11. Euro Buyer Returns To Market

To open long positions on EUR / USD pair, you need:

Euro buyers coped with the task of returning and fixing above the resistance level of 1.1384. This happened due to good fundamental statistics, which indicated an increase in activity in the business sphere of Germany and the eurozone. While trading is above the support of 1.1384, the demand for the euro will continue and the main goal will be to update the maximum in the area of 1.1412, where I recommend taking profits. The Breakthrough at this level will lead the euro to the maximum of the month 1.1443. In case of a decrease in EUR / USD in the afternoon, long positions can only be returned from the support level in the region of 1.1355.

To open short positions on EUR / USD pair, you need:

The bears need to return to the level of 1.1384, which will lead to the closure of a number of long positions in euros and a decrease to the support area of 1.1355, where I recommend taking profits. In the case of weak data on the producer price index in the US, which is scheduled for the second half of the day, it is best to consider short positions in EUR / USD after forming a false breakdown in the 1.1412 resistance area or rebound from the 1.1443 maximum.

Indicator signals:

Moving averages

Trade returned to the area of 30- and 50-day moving averages, which indicates the formation of a side channel.

Bollinger bands

In the event of a decline in the euro in the afternoon, a good support will be provided by the average Bollinger Bands indicator around 1.1365, from where you can open long positions immediately to rebound.

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Description of indicators

MA (moving average) 50 days - yellow

MA (moving average) 30 days - green

MACD: fast EMA 12, slow EMA 26, SMA 9

Bollinger Bands 20

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Intraday technical levels and trading recommendations for GBP/USD for December 11, 2018

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Since mid-November, the GBP/USD pair failed to establish a successful bullish breakout above the price level of 1.2880 (the upper limit of the depicted consolidation range).

On the other hand, two unsuccessful bearish breakout attempts were demonstrated below 1.2720 during last week's consolidations.

During Friday's consolidations, the GBP/USD pair failed to maintain bullish closure above 1.2780 (79.6% Fibonacci). That's why a significant decline below 1.2700-1.2660 (Historical bottoms) was demonstrated yesterday.

The current scenario could pursue as a bearish flag continuation pattern provided that bearish persistence below 1.2660 (corresponding to a prominent daily low) is maintained on a daily basis.

Any bullish pullback towards the price zone of 1.2660-1.2700 should be watched for a valid SELL entry. S/L should be set as daily closure above 1.2750.

A projected target for the bearish flag continuation pattern is located around 1.2300. Initial bearish destination is located around 1.2580.

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Intraday technical levels and trading recommendations for EUR/USD for December 11, 2018

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On the weekly chart, the EUR/USD pair is demonstrating a high-probability Head and Shoulders reversal pattern where the right shoulder is currently in progress.

On the Daily chart, the pair has been moving sideways with slight bearish tendency. Recent bearish consolidations have been maintained within the depicted daily movement channel since June 2018.

On November 13, the EUR/USD demonstrated recent bullish recovery around 1.1220-1.1250 where the lower limit of the channel as well as the depicted demand zone came to meet the pair.

Bullish fixation above 1.1420 is needed to enhance further bullish movement towards 1.1520. However, the market has demonstrated significant bearish rejection around 1.1420 few times so far.

The EUR/USD pair remains under bearish pressure below 1.1420. Thus, the pair remains trapped between 1.1420 and 1.1270 until breakout occurs in either direction.

Bullish fixation above 1.1420 is needed to enhance a further bullish advance towards 1.1520 and 1.1610.

On the other hand, if an early bearish breakout below 1.1270 is achieved on lower timeframes, a quick decline should be expected towards 1.1150-1.1100.

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Trading plan for 12/11/2018

All forecasts can be safely flushed into the toilet, as the British again threw an unexpected focus, once again showing that the only thing you can be sure of is the unpredictability of the British. Yesterday evening, like a bolt from the blue, a message was said that the British government canceled today's vote on an agreement with the European Union and the date of the vote has not been appointed. This has already become the reason for the collapse of the pound and of the single European currency, as it makes the situation completely unpredictable and unpredictable. It is significant that, according to Theresa May, such a decision was made because of disagreements on just one issue - the border between Northern Ireland and Ireland. Allegedly, the unresolved issue makes it impossible to positive outcome of the vote. But the Labor leader in Parliament says something completely different, since, in his opinion, the agreement does not contain the most important thing - the question of trade relations between the UK and the European Union after the divorce proceedings are completed. He added that Theresa May should either not interfere or resign since she herself is not able to solve the most important issue in this process.

In other words, the government headed by Teresa May and the parliament even speak different languages. Although, the Prime Minister herself assured that trade issues are still under negotiation and a solution will definitely be found. The British parliamentarians do not intend to turn into Aboriginal people selling land for glass beads because they themselves have turned this many times and know the price of promises and stories about a bright future. Their price is zero since, in his opinion, the agreement is not the most important. The question of trade relations between the UK and the European Union after the completion of the divorce process.

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The fall of the single European currency, after the pound, is explained only by one thing - the growth of uncertainty. After all, the current version of the agreement, as well as its absence, is beneficial to European countries and companies but the British again turned the table upside down, and what will happen next is impossible to predict.A number of European countries will most likely take advantage of the situation and will in every way impede the achievement of any agreements on trade relations. Thus, it is most likely that the UK will leave the European Union without an agreement, which will seriously damage the British economy.

After such a large-scale fall, it is worth waiting for a rebound, and any macroeconomic data will be interpreted within the framework of this idea. Moreover, it is not even necessary to invent anything because forecasts clearly indicate a weakening dollar. In particular, the labor market data in the UK can show the incredible stability of all indicators. However in United States, producer price growth should slow down from 2.9% to 2.5%, which is on the threshold of inflation data and against the background of the Fed's hints that the refinancing rate may be left unchanged in December.

The euro/dollar currency pair, like its counterpart pound/dollar, showed a downward movement from the level of 1.1140 to the value of 1.1350. It probably suggest the formation of a rollback towards 1.1390/1.1400.

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The currency pair pound/dollar on the information background flew down from the level of 1.2770 to the level of 1.2500. It is likely to assume that after such a rally, we will see a pullback towards 1.2620.

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Who will be the leader of the oil market - the United States or OPEC?

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Many experts are concerned about the question: who will win the fight for leadership in the global black gold market, the United States or the cartel countries? Analysts find it difficult to answer, because the situation is constantly changing in favor of one participant, then another.

After the summit of the G-20 countries, it became known that Saudi Arabia did not yield to US pressure, announcing a reduction in production by OPEC. At the same time, having solved one issue, the kingdom may face another problem, the potential increase in oil production in America in the event of a rally in oil prices.

According to experts, despite the stabilization of prices last Friday, the black gold market retained only 2% of the initial increase of 5%, caused by the announcement of a decrease in cartel production by countries and independent oil producers by 1.2 million barrels per day for six months.

On Monday, December 10, the price rally stopped. The price of WTI oil dropped to $ 52 per barrel at the beginning of the Asian session, and the price of Brent crude oil strengthened to $ 62, although the increase was not able to overcome the 0.5% mark.

Experts are wondering whether the volume of restrictions imposed by OPEC + is sufficient to stabilize the global black gold market. At the same time, it is not known whether all participants in the transaction will comply with their quotas, how long they will need to normalize the situation on the market, and how this will affect oil prices. According to analysts, the reduction in oil production will be for a period unfavorable in terms of energy demand. Experts believe that the reason for this is the slowdown in economic growth in China.

The attention of market participants this week will be directed to the short-term forecast of the US Department of Energy for the Energy Market (STEO). Experts believe that it deserves special attention of the leading market players, given the consequences of a reduction in the production of cartel countries, as well as Canada, the largest supplier of oil to the United States. Recall, the country of the maple leaf plans to reduce the supply by 9% due to the weakening of the price of black gold.

Most analysts believe that in the event of demand prevailing oversupply by the end of the first quarter of 2019, global oil reserves will steadily decline. At the same time, one should not underestimate the activity of American producers of shale oil, experts warn. Growth in shale production in the United States may be substantial over the next 6-12 months, especially if oil prices increase.

According to John Kilduff, strategist of the New York hedge fund Again Capital, for the current year, the United States increased production by 2 million barrels while increasing oil prices by 30%. In the case of a 15% price increase, American shalers will add another million barrels to the current level of production, which will negate all the efforts of OPEC +. Experts believe that if over the next six months, the cost of WTI oil is in the range of $ 55- $ 60, it will suit most US companies.

Note that the United States is the world's largest oil producer, producing 11.7 million barrels per day compared with 11.1 million barrels per day, recovered by Saudi Arabia and 11.4 million by Russia. According to the US Department of Natural Resources, the volume of shale deposits in the country is impressive: it includes about 46.3 billion barrels of oil, 281 trillion cubic feet of natural gas and 20 billion barrels of gas condensate, which makes these deposits the largest source of oil and gas resources.

Analysts believe that in response to the decision of OPEC + to limit oil production, US President Donald Trump may find new levers of pressure on the cartel's countries. They believe that the American leader is capable of delivering an unexpected blow to the global black gold market. Last Thursday, December 6, the head of the White House signed a permit for drilling in the western part of the United States on an area of 9 million acres. There are rich oil deposits in this area, experts emphasize.

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Will gold succeed in overcoming the "curse" of December?

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According to experts, in December, the situation on the gold market, as a rule, is not in the best way, but the end of this year may be an exception.

After reaching the minimum value in August of this year (at the level of $ 1,180 per 1 ounce), the cost of the precious metal began to grow gradually, even despite the strengthening of the American currency.

Meanwhile, over the past few weeks, the gold exchange rate has been under pressure. Despite the fact that there were more than enough reasons for the decline, the price managed to gain a foothold at the level above $ 1225 per 1 ounce.

Today, the precious metal traded near annual highs for the first time since July.

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Strengthening the position of gold occurs against the background of increasing tensions in the world. However, indulge in euphoria is still not worth it.

In the near future, the determining factor for the precious metal rate will be the decision of the US Federal Reserve regarding its monetary policy, which the regulator will take at the end of the next meeting scheduled for December 19.

If the fact that next week the Fed will raise the interest rate is no longer in doubt, then the prospects for further tightening of monetary policy are still in question.

It is assumed that in the event of a slowdown in the rate of increase in the rate of gold will receive an excellent chance to continue growth.

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EUR / USD: US and China continue trade negotiations. Euro has a chance for growth

The pound continues to be under pressure in tandem with the US dollar, pulling down the European currency yesterday. Yesterday's news that British Prime Minister Theresa May postponed the Brexit vote in parliament, which was scheduled for today, led to a massive sale of risky assets. The cancellation of the vote further contributed to the uncertainties in the markets and the further situation with the break in relations between the EU and the UK.

It is unclear when the new parliamentary vote will take place.

During her speech, British Prime Minister Theresa May said that the parliamentary vote scheduled for Tuesday was postponed since Brexit without an agreement would significantly damage the economy. She also stressed that she is making increasingly active preparations for Brexit without an agreement since the inability to reach an agreement in parliament increases the risk of Brexit without an agreement. May also noted that if Parliament does not want an agreement on Brexit, it is necessary to seek a compromise.

Yesterday, another round of talks took place between the United States and China.

As it became known, US representatives in the person of Treasury Secretary Stephen Mnuchin and White House Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer held talks with Chinese Vice Premier Liu He on trade relations. It mainly concerned agricultural purchases by China, as well as changes that would be made to the position of China's economic policy.

The data released on Monday afternoon did not provide strong support for the US dollar. According to the report, the index of employment trends in November of this year decreased due to weak indicators of labor market indicators. Thus, the Conference Board employment trends index in November of this year was at the level of 110.41 points against 110.73 points in October. Part-time employment data for Americans as well as the percentage of companies that failed to fill their vacancies made a negative contribution to the index.

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The pressure on the European currency is also exerted by the talk that the ECB may change its mind and announce the extension of the net asset purchase program at the upcoming meeting, which will take place tomorrow, December 12th. Economists predict that the central bank should announce the full completion of the current program, but recent statements by the ECB Governor may indicate changes in plans to complete net asset purchases this month. Any change in this strategy will lead to a sharp drop in the European currency, as it will be a complete surprise for the markets, which will accordingly affect plans to raise interest rates in the eurozone next year.

As for the technical picture of the EUR / USD currency pair, the current decline in the euro from the week highs does not pose a threat to buyers yet. If the bulls manage to keep the support area of 1.1350 today during the day, it will be possible to build the lower border of the ascending channel, which will allow us to count on a breakthrough resistance of 1.1390 with further growth in areas of 1.1415 and 1.1450. In the case of decline, the trade will move to a wide side channel with a bearish advantage, but support can be expected from the range of 1.1320-1.1310.

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A good report on producer prices in the US can support the US dollar.

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Wave analysis of GBP / USD for December 11. News background again played against the pound sterling.

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Wave counting analysis:

During the trading on December 10, the GBP / USD currency pair lost about 172 basis points. Thus, the expected wave 5, A, continues its construction and, thanks to all the events of the past days, but also weeks, takes on a very complex and non-standard form. A successful attempt to break through the level of 127.2% Fibonacci and the postponement of the vote in the British Parliament on the Brexit project can lead to a fall of the instrument up to the Fibonacci level of 161.8%.

The objectives for the option with purchases:

1.2935 - 50.0% of Fibonacci

1.2991 - 38.2% of Fibonacci

1.3175 - 0.0% of Fibonacci

The objectives for the option with sales:

1.2566 - 127.2% of Fibonacci

1.2398 - 161.8% of Fibonacci

General conclusions and trading recommendations:

The GBP / USD currency pair continues to build the downward wave A and, presumably, its internal wave 5. Given the news background and the breakthrough of 1.2564, I expect in the coming days to continue reducing the instrument with targets located near the estimated mark of 1.2398, which corresponds to 161.8 % of Fibonacci. Only positive news for the pound can lead to the completion of wave A.

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Fundamental Analysis of GBP/USD for December 11, 2018

GBP/USD has been quite impulsive under the bearish pressure recently which pushed the price below 1.2600 area with a daily close. As the UK is facing headwinds due to the BREXIT deal, GBP has lost momentum, plummeting to a 20-month low against USD.

British Prime Minister Theresa May has postponed a parliamentary vote on her Brexit deal to look for more concession, but the European Union refused to renegotiate. British PM Theresa May is still trying quite hard right now, asking for support to fine-tune her Brexit deal in a last ditch bid to save it. The Brexit deal is getting more and more puzzled as the countdown is going on until the deadline of March 29, 2019. Today UK Average Earning Index report was published with an increase to 3.3% from the previous value of 3.1% which was expected to decrease to 3.0%, Unemployment Rate remained unchanged as expected at 4.1%, and Claimant Count Change disappointed with increasing to 21.9k from the previous figure of 20.2k which was expected to decrease to 13.2k.

On the other hand, USD has been struggling with the worse-than-expected economic reports and FED's softer rhetoric on monetary tightening. The Federal Reserve's plans to continue raising interest rates next year were met with more skepticism on Wall Street on Monday. Though FED unveiled its plan to raise the funds rate at least 3 times in 2019, the regulator is currently turning to a pause and indecision due to sharp tightening of financial conditions. In light of the recent downbeat nonfarm payrolls, the economic situation in the US is currently quite uncertain. Ahead of probable rate hike decision this month, the pair is set to trade with higher volatility. Today US PPI report is going to be published which is expected to decrease to 0.0% from the previous value of 0.6% and Core PPI is also expected to decrease to 0.1% from the previous value of 0.5%. Moreover, tomorrow CPI report is expected to reveal a decrease to 0.0% from the previous value of 0.3% and Core CPI is expected to be unchanged at 0.2%.

Meanwhile, future of GBP is currently quite uncertain amid sound economic data but poor fundamentals due to the BREXIT jitters which might lead to severe downward momentum against USD. Traders are cautious to express sentiment on USD amid Fed indecision about a pace of monetary tightening. Nevertheless, traders have optimistic expectations for the nearest economic reports and events that might lead to stable gains in the future.

Now let us look at the technical view. The price has pushed quite impulsively higher today. This led the price to retest 1.2600 area from where it is expected to push lower towards 1.2500-50 support area in the coming days. As the price remains below 1.2700 area with a daily close, further bearish pressure is expected in this pair.

SUPPORT: 1.2500-50

RESISTANCE: 1.2600, 1.2700

BIAS: BEARISH

MOMENTUM: NON-VOLATILE

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The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Wave analysis of EUR / USD for December 11. The pair continues building wave C, but with great difficulty

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Wave counting analysis:

During Monday's trading, the EUR / USD currency pair lost about 75 basis points from the high of the day. However, the estimated wave C of the corrective set of waves still does not look fully completed and completed. On this basis, the increase in quotations may resume with targets that are near the 100.0% of Fibonacci level. The internal wave structure of wave C has already acquired a rather complex form. An unsuccessful attempt to break through the 100.0% of the Fibonacci mark can lead to the completion of wave C and the entire corrective trend section.

The objectives for the option with sales:

1.1215 - 0.0% of Fibonacci

The objectives for the option with purchases:

1.1471 - 100.0% of Fibonacci

1.1528 - 127.2% of Fibonacci

General conclusions and trading recommendations:

The currency pair continues to be in the framework of the construction of the rising wave C. Thus, today I expect the resumption of the increase with targets located near the estimated levels of 1.1471 and 1.1528, and I recommend cautious and small purchases. A successful attempt to break through the level of 23.6% according to Fibonacci will indicate the pair's readiness to build a new descending wave. However, from the current position, it is more preferable to still raise the tool.

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The pound has lost the last support

The S & P 500 broad market index fell again in trading on Monday, reaching a low of 2583.32, which is the worst index since April and indicates that markets continue to reorient to a likely change in Fed policy due to a reassessment of growth prospects in 2019.

Consumer confidence is still high, and private consumption still supports growth, but some factors indicate that the drivers for expansionary economic growth are running out. For example, the growth rate of investment of non-residents has been falling for seven months in a row, that is, the direction of financial flows is not at all in favor of the dollar, despite all efforts.k8H2o7hhzw_Ye5GyaPuY6S2rfNKPOHXi1GLshQFf

The probability of ending the trade war between the United States and China is regarded as low, primarily due to the fact that the United States has no signs of willingness to seek compromises. The announcement at the G20 summit that trade duties would not be introduced on January 1, the markets regarded as a positive signal, but the subsequent detention in Canada of the Huawei foundry at the US request clearly indicates that the pressure to obtain unilateral concessions from China will continue. At the same time, China must abandon its own development strategy, known as the "Strategy 2525", which looks completely impossible.

Perhaps the markets will take a pause before the Fed meeting on December 19, but the general trend is unlikely to change. The deterioration of forecasts for the growth of the US economy looks obvious, the target will also be adjusted according to the level of the neutral rate, which will definitely be perceived as a recognition of the approaching recession. The dollar loses momentum to grow.

Eurozone

Investor confidence indicator Sentix dropped sharply in December to -0.3p against 8.8p a month earlier, the overall economic index is at a minimum since December 2014, economic expectations fell to a minimum since August 2012.

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With the exception of a small pause in the summer, everything goes down throughout the year, and it is significant that it was in August 2012 that Mario Draghi announced changes in monetary policy. The ECB did not have time to announce the completion of a successful economic support program, as business activity and economic expectations rolled back, completely playing the entire six-year positive.

As Sentix notes, the momentum of decline is in many ways similar to the 2007 movement, and banks find themselves in exactly the same difficult situation, and the ECB will have to offer markets some new mechanisms to support the economy after the completion of the asset repurchase program at a meeting on Thursday.

The currency pair EUR / USD is unlikely to be out of the trading range until Thursday; an attempt to test the resistance of 1.1440 looks a bit more likely than a decline to support of 1.1267.

Great Britain

The British pound from the second attempt broke through the support level of 1.2660 and dropped to the lowest level since April 2017. The reason was the announcement of the cancellation of the Brexit vote, which Theresa May made during a speech to parliament.

Refusal to vote means a direct admission that the May government has no chance of passing the bill, which would ultimately lead to its resignation and government crisis.

May said that there is a serious danger of a split in the UK in the event of a re-vote on Brexit, and explained that parliamentarians' expectations on certain elements of the agreement are unrealistic. If the voting took place and it would fail, the country would face serious consequences that would lead to severe economic damage.

The damage, I must say, is already significant and without Brexit. A report on industrial production in October reaffirmed that the UK economy is slowing down at a fast pace.

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The balance of trade in goods in October at a 6-month low, as well as trade with countries outside the EU, GDP growth rates are on the verge of slipping into recession. The pound has so many reasons for declining even without Brexit, so the chances of resuming growth in the short term are slim.

The currency pair GBP / USD may rise to the level of previous support of 1.2660 as part of the correction, but only in order to leave even lower again. The next target is in the range of 1.2360 / 80, and the probability of reaching these levels before the end of the week is quite high.

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Theresa May hit Zugzwang

Zugzwang is a position in checkers or chess, in which any player's next move leads to a deterioration in his position. Perhaps, this is the most accurate definition of the situation that has now developed in the UK.

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It is symbolic that the country's exit plan from the EU has the unofficial name "Checkers" (checkers) since its main positions were agreed on this summer at the Prime Minister's residence of the same name. This plan was initially criticized, both by the conservative opposition and by the conservatives themselves. The Theresa May team was then abandoned by the most zealous Eurosceptics, accusing the prime minister of being too compliant to Brussels. Since then, May has been forced to reckon with the official opposition in the person of the Labor Party, as well as the internal party, in the person of the "hawks" among the conservatives. And if earlier she could ignore their opinion, then yesterday clearly demonstrated an obvious fact that during the two-year talks, the head of government lost too many allies, so she could not consolidate parliamentarians to make a historic decision.

The main problem of the deal is backstop. In the opinion of some conservatives and representatives of the unionist party, the special customs status of Northern Ireland does not have a time limit, and therefore it can become permanent. Moreover, according to the provisions of the transaction, London will not be able to waive this status unilaterally. It is worth recalling that the issue of the Irish border is the most complex and controversial. Brussels insisted and insists that there is no strict border control on the island of Ireland, so the parties finally agreed that there would be a special customs status in Northern Ireland, this was the compromise that the Europeans agreed on.

However, Theresa May's opponents have a radically different vision of the situation. In their opinion, the prime minister almost betrayed the country's national interests, because, by and large, now there are different customs rules in part of the UK, and without any reasonable time limits. And why such "privileges" are granted only to Northern Ireland, and not to other regions of the state, say, Scotland, whose residents also mostly voted against the country's withdrawal from the EU? There are too many similar questions, and Theresa May, in turn, could not find any intelligible answers to them, at least she could not convince her opponents of the expediency of these steps.

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Traders are now asking a different rhetorical question, "what will happen next?". After all, by and large, British politicians have driven themselves into a corner. First, Theresa May was unable to play the "no alternative" card of the proposed deal. For a long time, she repeated the mantra that the agreed terms are most beneficial and Europe will not make additional concessions (Brussels confirmed her words with similar rhetoric). But now it suddenly turns out that the deal does have serious flaws that many deputies cannot put up with, even under the fear of the chaotic Brexit.

Secondly, the representatives of London and Brussels have repeatedly stated that there will be no additional negotiations on the agreement reached. However, after yesterday's events, the British prime minister has no choice but to resume negotiations, at least ask about this at the EU summit, which starts this Thursday. Brussels is also in a political grip. After all, if the Europeans do resume the dialogue, they will "open the Pandora's box", thereby leveling the assertion that the agreements reached are inviolable. Needless to say, Theresa May's opponents will take advantage of this situation to further exert political pressure on the Prime Minister? After all, if the European Union resumed negotiations, then London can bargain for more favorable conditions?

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In other words, the situation really resembles zugzwang. May's inaction will lead to chaotic Brexit, and any vigorous actions by London and Brussels will only complicate the situation and ultimately also lead to a "tough" exit of the country from the EU.

According to some experts, if Theresa May will not be able to convince parliamentarians to vote for her deal in the near future, she will most likely resign, as Brussels is unlikely to make any concessions. Further scenario development is difficult to predict. Everything will depend on who will be the successor to the current prime minister. It is worth recalling here that the European Court recently ruled that Britain could unilaterally refuse to leave the EU. This requires a corresponding decision of the British government. Theresa May is categorically against this step, while the next cabinet may have a completely different opinion on this issue.

In the meantime, traders have no choice but to watch the battles of deputies. Today, the British Parliament will hold an emergency debate because of yesterday's decision by the Prime Minister. It is quite probable that today will allow us to understand which scenario further events will develop.

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Simplified wave analysis of EUR / GBP for December 11

Large-scale graphics:

The ascending wave plane from April 17 is nearing completion. In the movement structure, all 3 parts (A – B – C) are clearly traced.

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Medium scale graphics:

The last wave of the hourly scale of November 13 completes the larger model. The lower limit of the large-scale potential reversal zone has been reached.

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Small-scale graphics:

The bullish segment of the schedule from November 28 completes the ascending wave zigzag of the watch TF. Signal reversal on the chart is not observed.

Forecast and recommendations:

In the upcoming weekly period, there is a high probability of a change in the direction of the short-term trend. It is recommended to track reversal signals for entering short trades within the current resistance zone.

Resistance zones:

- 0.9030 / 0.9080

Support areas:

- 0.8870 / 0.8820

Explanations for the figures: The simplified wave analysis uses waves consisting of 3 parts (A – B – C). For analysis, 3 consecutive graphs are used. Each of them analyzes the last, incomplete wave. Zones show calculated areas with the highest probability of reversal. The arrows indicate the wave marking by the method used by the author. The solid background shows the formed structure, the dotted - the expected movement.

Attention: The wave algorithm does not take into account the duration of tool movements over time. To conduct a trade transaction, you need confirmation signals from the trading systems you use!

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

GBP / USD. December 11th. The trading system."Regression Channels". Theresa May delays making Brexit final decision

4-hour timeframe

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Technical details:

The senior linear regression channel: direction - down.

The junior linear regression channel: direction - down.

Moving average (20; smoothed) - down.

CCI: -175.9702

The GBP / USD currency pair continues its downward movement, which began the day before, after the next "favorable" actions of Theresa May. The British Prime Minister this time canceled a vote in parliament on her own Brexit bill, explaining that "now is not the time to vote." When "there will be time", May didn't specify, as well as why "now is not the time". In general, the collapse of the pound sterling, given the actions of the head of the country, is not at all surprising. Now, the whole epic called "Brexit" is delayed for an indefinite period. We have repeatedly written that the pound needs certainty. Let there be already an unregulated exit from the EU, but traders and the entire public will already clearly understand and realize what path the UK is waiting for the coming years. And so the whole situation remains in limbo. Today in the UK, the unemployment rate and the change in average wages with and without premiums will be published. However, these reports are unlikely to provide strong support for the British currency. The maximum that a pound can count on is a technical correction, and even that is not too strong. We continue to wait for new messages from Theresa May and other parliamentarians of the United Kingdom.

Nearest support levels:

S1 - 1.2512

S2 - 1.2451

S3 - 1.2390

Nearest resistance levels:

R1 - 1.2573

R2 - 1.2634

R3 - 1.2695

Trading recommendations:

The currency pair GBP / USD has resumed a strong downward movement. Thus, before the Heikin Ashi indicator turns up, which would mean the beginning of an upward correction, sell-positions with targets of 1.2512 and 1.2451 are relevant.

Buy orders are recommended to open no earlier than fixing the price above the moving average with the first targets of 1.2756 and 1.2817. In this case, the tendency for the instrument to change to ascending.

In addition to the technical picture, you should also consider the fundamental data and the time of their release.

Explanations for illustrations:

The senior linear regression channel is the blue lines of the unidirectional movement.

The junior linear channel is the purple lines of the unidirectional movement.

CCI is the blue line in the indicator regression window.

The moving average (20; smoothed) is the blue line on the price chart.

Murray levels - multi-colored horizontal stripes.

Heikin Ashi is an indicator that colors bars in blue or purple.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

EUR / USD. December 11th. The trading system. "Regression Channels". Euro declined to 1.1350, but could resume an uptrend

4-hour timeframe

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Technical details:

The senior linear regression channel: direction - down.

The younger linear regression channel: direction - up.

Moving average (20; smoothed) - sideways.

CCI: -15.8350

The currency pair EUR / USD on Tuesday, December 11, corrected to the moving average line and Murray's level of "2/8" - 1.1353. Formally, the MA has already been overcome, but in order to establish the fact of a change in the tendency of the instrument to the downward one, we recommend waiting for Murray to overcome the level of 2/8. If this does not happen, then the upward trend, very weak, can resume. The fundamental reasons for the decline of the European currency were not particularly needed the day before. If you look closely at the chart, it becomes clear that this kind of correction often takes place in recent days. Of course, it can also be attributed to the reduction of the euro by the cancellation by Theresa May of a parliamentary vote on her Brexit bill. As we have already written more than once, the whole subject to Brexit has far less impact on the euro than on the pound sterling. Today, neither in the States nor in the European Union are any important macroeconomic publications planned. Thus, traders will be deprived of any fundamental "infusions". Of course, it is possible to receive unplanned, unexpected information, for example from Trump or one of the EU leaders, but this is unlikely. Thus, from a complex point of view, the Eurocurrency today has a good chance of resuming the upward movement.

Nearest support levels:

S1 - 1.1353

S2 - 1.1292

S3 - 1.1230

Nearest resistance levels:

R1 - 1,1414

R2 - 1.1475

R3 - 1.1536

Trading recommendations:

The EUR / USD currency pair has adjusted to the moving average. A rebound in the price from the level of 1.1353 with the fixation above the moving will serve as a signal to open new long positions with the target of 1.1414.

Sell orders are recommended to be considered after the price is fixed below the moving average line and the level of 1.1353. In this case, there will be more confident in a change in the trend of the instrument to a downward one.

In addition to the technical picture, you should also consider the fundamental data and the time of their release.

Explanations for illustrations:

The senior linear regression channel is the blue lines of the unidirectional movement.

The younger linear regression channel is the purple lines of the unidirectional movement.

CCI - blue line in the indicator window.

The moving average (20; smoothed) is the blue line on the price chart.

Murray levels - multi-colored horizontal stripes.

Heikin Ashi is an indicator that colors bars in blue or purple.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Bitcoin analysis for December 11, 2018

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Trading recommendations:

According to the H4 time - frame, I found that BTC is in a consolidation phase (potential bearish flag in creation), which is a sign that buying looks risky. The price is trading near the mid band of the Keltner channel. The short-mid term trend is down. My advice is to watch for selling opportunities if you see a breakout of the support trendline $3.200. The downward target is set at the price of $2.950.

Support/Resistance

$3.592 – Intraday resistance

$3.178– Intraday support

$2.950 – Objective target

With InstaForex you can earn on cryptocurrency's movements right now. Just open a deal in your MetaTrader4.

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Analysis of the divergence of EUR / USD for December 11. The bearish divergence once again helped the dollar

4h

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The EUR / USD currency pair performed a new U-turn in favor of the US currency, after the formation of a bearish divergence at the CCI indicator, and started a new fall in the direction of the correction level of 100.0% - 1.1303. The end of the pair's exchange rate on December 11 from the Fibo level of 100.0% will allow traders to count on a reversal in favor of the EU currency and a return to the correction level of 76.4% - 1.1423. Fixing quotes under the Fibo level of 100.0% will increase the chances of a further fall in the direction of the next correction level of 127.2% - 1.1162.

The Fibo grid is built on extremes from August 15, 2018, and September 24, 2018.

Daily

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On the 24-hour chart, after rebounding from the Fibo level of 127.2% - 1.1285, the currency pair retains the possibility to continue growth in the direction of the correction level of 100.0% - 1.1553. There is no indicator of the emerging divergences today. Fixing the pair under the correction level of 127.2% can be interpreted as a reversal in favor of the US dollar and the resumption of the fall in the direction of the correctional level of 161.8% is expected to be 1.0941.

The Fibo gird is built on extremums from November 7, 2017, and February 16, 2018.

Recommendations to traders:

New purchases of the EUR / USD currency pair can be made with the target of 1.1423 and a Stop Loss order below the Fibo level of 100.0% if the pair bounces off the level of 1.1303.

The EUR / USD currency pair can be sold now with a target of 1.1303 with a Stop Loss order above the Fibo level of 76.4%, as the pair closed below the correction level of 1.1423 (hourly chart) to form a bearish divergence.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Analysis of GBP / USD Divergences for December 11th. Nothing can help the pound sterling.

4h

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The GBP / USD currency pair on the 4-hour chart, after the rebound from the correction level of 76.4% - 1.2812 and the formation of a bearish divergence at the CCI indicator, resumed the process of falling and completed closing below the Fibo level of 100.0% - 1.2662. As a result, the fall in quotations can be continued in the direction of the next correction level of 127.2% - 1.2491. Releasing the pair on December 11 from this level will allow us to expect a reversal in favor of the pound sterling and some growth in the direction of the correctional level of 100.0%. Fixing quotes below the Fibe level of 127.2% will work in favor of continuing to fall.

The Fibo grid was built on extremes from August 15, 2018, and September 20, 2018.

1h

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On the hourly chart, the currency pair performed a significant drop, but this night it completed closing above the correction level of 127.2% - 1.2567, which allows traders to expect some growth in the direction of the correctional level of 100.0% - 1.2696. However, the emerging bearish divergence in the CCI indicator also allows you to count on the resumption of a fall in the direction of the Fibo level of 161.8% - 1.2400. Closing the pair under the correction level of 127.2% can be interpreted as a reversal in favor of the US currency.

The Fib net is built on extremes from October 30, 2018, and November 7, 2018.

Recommendations to traders:

You can make purchases of the GBP / USD currency pair with a target of 1.2696 and a Stop Loss order under the correction level of 127.2%, as the pair completed closing above the level of 1.2567 (hourly chart) and hold the orders until a bearish divergence is formed.

Sales of the GBP / USD currency pair can be carried out with a target of 1.2400 and a Stop Loss order above the level of 127.2% if the pair closes below the Fibo level of 1.2567 (hourly chart), especially with the formation of a bearish divergence.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

The world is on the verge of a new recession

According to the results of Monday, the American dollar was trading in different directions against the main currencies against the background of a number of important factors that determine the mood of market participants. These include rising expectations that, on a wave of signals about the beginning of a slowdown in US economic growth, as well as a large-scale trade war between the US and the PRC, which, although in a sluggish mode, is playing a significant role in slowing global growth, the Fed may halt the process of further raising interest rates. Another signal is the growing crisis in Europe, which is already vividly manifested in France in the form of protests of the population, which spread to Germany, the Netherlands and are ripening in other countries. In addition, the problem of the exit of Britain from the EU overshadows not only it, but also in general Europe.

The events that are currently observed in the world indicate that the influence of various negative factors may force investors to continue selling risky assets against the backdrop of waiting for the end of the ten-year economic cycle of global economic growth, which threatens to turn into a new recession or economic recession.

Considering such prospects, we believe that in the wake of increasing sales of risky assets, protective assets will be more and more in demand, government bonds of economically developed countries, primarily American treasuries, then the demand for gold will grow. From currencies, investors will acquire the Japanese yen, the Swiss franc, and the US dollar, which will be in demand not only as a safe haven currency but also a tool into which investors will leave the emerging markets. Also, supporting factor will be the continuation of the Fed's balance sheet reduction process, which, despite a possible pause in raising interest rates or even their termination, will turn into a "scarce" asset amid falling dollar supply in the world.

In this situation, undoubtedly, a probable drop in commodity currencies should be expected, since the decision of OPEC + to reduce the volume of crude oil production is unlikely to stimulate its growth due to the likely drop in demand for "black gold" due to the start of a new recession. Commodity currencies will also fall under the influence of a reduction in world trade due to the prospects for a new economic downturn amid trade wars that the US will not stop. The euro and sterling are most likely to be victims of Brexit in the wake of the economic downturn in Europe, which will cause an increase in social tensions.

Given such possible prospects, we believe that in the medium term, the dollar will remain at least stable against major currencies or even grow.

Forecast of the day:

Gold continues to receive support in the wake of the prospects of a new economic downturn. From a technical point of view, a price increase above the level of 1247.35 may stimulate a price increase to 1259.00.

The GBP / USD currency pair is below 1.2615 amid Brexit's problems and T. May's postponing of parliamentary voting on this topic. The persistence of tension, as well as the inability of the couple to grow above this mark, may lead to a continuation of the price decline to 1.2365.

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Analysis of Gold for December 11, 2018

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Recently, Gold has been trading upwards. The price tested the level of $1,249.00 but it found sellers at that point. According to the M15 time – frame, I have found a broken intraday upward channel in the background, which is a sign that sellers took control from buyers and that buying looks risky. Watch for selling opportunities. I have placed Fibonacci expansion to find potential downward targets. Downward targets are set at the price of $1,243.40, $1,240.00 and at the price of $1,234.50.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

EUR/USD analysis for December 11, 2018

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Recently, the EUR/USD pair has been trading downwards. The price tested the level of 1.1350. Anyway, according to the M15 time – frame, I found that EUR/USD is trading above the Ichimoku cloud and above the daily pivot (1.1382), which is a sign that buyers are today in control. After the yesterday's sell off, I found the stable recovery. There is also a double top (bullish pattern) on the point and figure chart, which is another sign of the strength. My advice is to watch for buying opportunities. The upward targets are set at the price of 1.1413 and at the price of 1.1430.

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Technical analysis of AUD/USD for December 11, 2018

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Overview:

The AUD/USD pair continue to trade upwards from the level of 0.7185. The pair rose from the level of 0.7185 to a top around 0.7299 but it rebounded to set around the spot of 0.7212 and 0.7249 . Today, the first resistance level is seen at 0.7299 followed by 0.7352, while daily support 1 is seen at 0.7185 (50% Fibonacci retracement). According to the previous events, the AUD/USD pair is still moving between the levels of 0.7250 and 0.7352; so we expect a range of 102 pips. Furthermore, if the trend is able to break out through the first resistance level at 0.7299, we should see the pair climbing towards the double top (0.7299) to test it. Therefore, buy above the level of 0.7299 with the first target at 0.7352 in order to test the daily resistance 1 and further to 0.7394. Also, it might be noted that the level of 0.7394 is a good place to take profit because it will form a double top. On the other hand, in case a reversal takes place and the AUD/USD pair breaks through the support level of 0.7185, a further decline to 0.7069 can occur which would indicate a bearish market.

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Fractal analysis of major currency pairs for December 11

Dear colleagues.

For the Euro / Dollar currency pair, the price is close to the abolition of the ascending structure of December 5, for which a breakdown of 1.1345 is necessary. For the Pound / Dollar currency pair, the downward cycle of December 4 is still considered as the main structure. For the Dollar / Franc currency pair, the continuation of the development of the downward structure of December 5 is expected after the price passes the range of 0.9871 - 0.9856. For the Dollar / Yen currency pair, we are following the formation of the ascending structure of December 10. For the Euro / Yen currency pair, we follow the formation of the upward structure of December 6 and the development of which as a cycle is expected after the breakdown of 129.34. For the Pound / Yen currency pair, we follow the local downward cycle of December 5 and the potential of this structure is at around 140.59, the level of 143.15 is the key support.

Forecast for December 11:

Analytical review of H1-scale currency pairs:

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For the Euro / Dollar currency pair, the key levels on the H1 scale are: 1.1512, 1.1487, 1.1434, 1.1406, 1.1370, 1.1348 and 1.1310. Here, the price is close to the abolition of the ascending structure of December 5, for which a breakdown of the level of 1.1345 is necessary. In this case, the first potential target for the downward movement is 1.1310. An upward movement is expected after the breakdown of 1.1406. In this case, the target is 1.1434 and consolidation is near this level. The breakdown of the level of 1.1435 will lead to the development of a pronounced upward movement. In this case, the target is 1.1487. The potential value for the top is considered the level of 1.1512, upon reaching which we expect a rollback downwards.

The main trend is the local rising structure of December 5, the stage of deep correction.

Trading recommendations:

Buy 1.1406 Take profit: 1.1432

Buy 1.1436 Take profit: 1.1485

Sell: 1.1345 Take profit: 1.1315

Sell: Take profit:

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For the Pound / Dollar currency pair, the key levels on the H1 scale are: 1.2717, 1.2664, 1.2623, 1.2623, 1.2596, 1.2528, 1.2482 and 1.2417. Here, we are following the development of the downward cycle of December 4th. The short-term downward movement is possible in the range of 1.2528 - 1.2482 and the breakdown of the latter value will lead to a movement to the potential target of 1.2417, upon reaching this level, we expect a rollback to the top.

The short-term uptrend is possible in the range of 1.2596 - 1.2623 and the breakdown of the last value will lead to a prolonged correction. Here, the target is 1.2664 and this level is the key support for the top. Its price passage will have to form the initial conditions for the upward cycle. In this case, the target is 1.2717.

The main trend is the downward structure of December 4.

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 1.2596 Take profit: 1.2623

Buy: 1.2625 Take profit: 1.2662

Sell: 1.2526 Take profit: 1.2484

Sell: 1.2480 Take profit: 1.2420

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For the Dollar / Franc currency pair, the key levels on the H1 scale are: 0.9951, 0.9922, 0.9905, 0.9871, 0.9856, 0.9815 and 0.9787. Here, we are following the formation of the downward structure of December 5th. The price passage of the range of 0.9871 - 0.9863 should be accompanied by a pronounced downward movement. Here, the target is 0.9815. The potential value for the bottom is considered to be the level of 0.9787, after reaching which we expect consolidation.

The short-term upward movement is possible in the range of 0.9905 - 0.9922 and the breakdown of the latter value will lead to a prolonged correction. Here, the target is 0.9951 and this level is the key support for the downward movement.

The main trend is the formation of a downward structure of December 5.

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 0.9905 Take profit: 0.9920

Buy: 0.9923 Take profit: 0.9950

Sell: 0.9871 Take profit: 0.9857

Sell: 0.9855 Take profit: 0.9818

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For the Dollar / Yen currency pair, the key levels on the scale of H1 are: 114.45, 114.13, 113.72, 113.41, 112.95, 112.76, 112.46, 112.22 and 111.87. Here, we follow the formation of the ascending structure from December 10th. The continuation of the upward movement is expected after the breakdown of 113.41. In this case, the goal is 113.72 and near this level is the price consolidation. The breakdown of the level of 113.72 will lead to the development of a pronounced upward movement. Here, the target is 114.13 and the potential value for the top is 114.45, upon reaching which we expect a consolidated movement, as well as a rollback to the correction.

The short-term downward movement is possible in the range of 112.95 - 112.76 and the breakdown of the last value will lead to a prolonged correction. Here, the goal is 112.46 and this level is the key support for the top. Its breakdown will cancel the upward structure from December 10. In this case, the first goal is 112.22.

The main trend is the formation of the ascending structure of December 10.

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 113.41 Take profit: 113.70

Buy: 113.74 Take profit: 114.10

Sell: 112.95 Take profit: 112.76

Sell: 112.74 Take profit: 112.50

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For the Canadian dollar / dollar currency pair, the key levels on the H1 scale are: 1.3557, 1.3521, 1.3465, 1.3429, 1.3370, 1.3344, 1.3311 and 1.3247. Here, the price forms the local potential for the top of December 7th. The short-term upward movement is possible in the range of 1.3429 - 1.3465 and the breakdown of the latter value should be accompanied by a pronounced upward movement. Here, the target is 1.3521. The potential value for the top is considered the level of 1.3557, upon reaching which we expect consolidation, as well as a rollback to the top.

The short-term downward movement is possible in the range of 1.3370 - 1.3344 and the breakdown of the last value will lead to an in-depth correction. Here, the target is 1.3311 and this level is the key support for the top. Its price passage will have to form a downward structure. In this case, the target is 1.3247.

The main trend is the ascending cycle of December 4, the local structure for the top of December 7.

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 1.3430 Take profit: 1.3465

Buy: 1.3467 Take profit: 1.3520

Sell: 1.3370 Take profit: 1.3345

Sell: 1.3343 Take profit: 1.3113

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For the Australian dollar / dollar currency pair, the key levels on the H1 scale are: 0.7290, 0.7257, 0.7237, 0.7196, 0.7166, 0.7127 and 0.7100. Here, we are following the development of the downward structure of December 4th. The short-term downward movement is possible in the range of 0.7196 - 0.7166 and the breakdown of the latter value will lead to a pronounced movement. Here, the target is 0.7127. The potential value for the bottom is considered to be the level of 0.7100, upon reaching which we expect consolidation, as well as a rollback to the top.

The short-term uptrend is possible in the range of 0.7237 - 0.7257 and the breakdown of the latter value will lead to a deep correction. Here, the target is 0.7290 and this level is the key support for the downward structure of December 4.

The main trend is the downward structure of December 4.

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 0.7237 Take profit: 0.7255

Buy: 0.7258 Take profit: 0.7290

Sell: 0.7196 Take profit: 0.7166

Sell: 0.7164 Take profit: 0.7130

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For the Euro / Yen currency pair, the key levels on the H1 scale are: 130.13, 129.82, 129.34, 128.95, 128.36, 128.09, 127.68 and 127.43. Here, we follow the formation of the ascending structure of December 6. The short-term upward movement is expected in the range of 128.95 - 129.34 and the breakdown of the latter value will lead to the development of a pronounced movement. In this case, the goal is 129.82. The potential value for the top is considered the level of 130.13, upon reaching which we expect consolidation, as well as a rollback to the top.

The short-term downward movement is possible in the range of 128.36 - 128.09, hence a high probability of a reversal upwards. The breakdown of the level of 128.09 will have to form a local structure for the downward movement. In this case, the goal is 127.68 and the range of 127.68 - 127.43.

The main trend is the formation of the ascending structure of December 6.

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 128.95 Take profit: 129.30

Buy: 129.37 Take profit: 129.80

Sell: 128.34 Take profit: 128.12

Sell: 128.05 Take profit: 127.70

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For the Pound / Yen currency pair, the key levels on the H1 scale are: 143.16, 142.74, 142.43, 141.87, 141.46, 141.15 and 140.59. Here, we are following the downward cycle from December 5th. The downward movement is expected after the breakdown of 141.87. In this case, the target is 141.46 and in the range of 141.46 - 141.15 is the consolidation. The breakdown of the level of 141.15 will allow us to expect to move to a potential value. Here, the goal is 140.59, from this level, we expect a rollback to the top.

The short-term uptrend is possible in the range of 142.43 - 142.74 and the breakdown of the last value to the prolonged correction. Here, the target is 143.16 and this level is the key support for the downward structure. Its price passage will have to form the initial conditions for the upward cycle.

The main trend is the local structure for the bottom of December 5th.

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 142.43 Take profit: 142.72

Buy: 142.77 Take profit: 143.14

Sell: 141.83 Take profit: 141.46

Sell: 141.15 Take profit: 140.65

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