AUD/JPY reacting below resistance, potential drop!

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Trading Recommendation

Entry: 74.230

Reason for Entry: 50% Fibonacci Retracement

Take Profit : 73.680

Reason for Take Profit: 78.6% Fibonacci retracement, 100% Fibonacci extension

Stop Loss: 74.850

Reason for Stop loss:

horizontal swing high resistance

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USD/CAD Bounce above support!

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Trading Recommendation

Entry: 1.32270

Reason for Entry: 38.2% Fibonacci retracement, Graphical Swing low

Take Profit : 1.32700

Reason for Take Profit:

61.8% Fibonacci retracement, Horizontal swing high

Stop Loss: 1.32030

Reason for Stop loss:

61.8% Fibonacci retracement

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USD/CAD Bounce above support!

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Trading Recommendation

Entry: 1.32270

Reason for Entry: 38.2% Fibonacci retracement, Graphical Swing low

Take Profit : 1.32700

Reason for Take Profit:

61.8% Fibonacci retracement, Horizontal swing high

Stop Loss: 1.32030

Reason for Stop loss:

61.8% Fibonacci retracement

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

USD/CHF approaching support, potential bounce!

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Trading Recommendation

Entry: 0.9815

Reason for Entry: 61.8% Fibonacci extension

Take Profit : 0.9918

Reason for Take Profit: horizontal pullback resistance

38.2% Fibonacci retracement

Stop Loss: 0.9733

Reason for Stop loss:

horizontal swing low support

78.6% Fibonacci retracement

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Technical analysis of BTC/USD for 11/12/2019:

Crypto Industry News:

The degree of adaptation of Blockchain technology in China continues to amaze, given that the Bank of China has reportedly issued $ 2.8 billion in special Blockchain-based financial bonds for small and micro-enterprises.

According to the publication of the local Sina Finance information point, the funds are specifically used to provide loans to Chinese small and micro enterprises to support their further development in the economy.

By the end of September, Bank of China had spent around $ 57.7 billion on 410,000 small and micro-business customers, a 35% increase over the previous year. By comparison, micro-enterprises generally have less than 10 employees, while small businesses have up to 50 employees.

The news comes as the Chinese government attaches increasing importance to the digital economy. At the beginning of December, Forkast Insights, the research arm of the Asian company Forkast, thoroughly and comprehensively looked at the integration of Blockchain technology in China.

The report indicates that Blockchain technology is rapidly developing in China and has a multitude of "practical real-world use cases that go far beyond the experimental stage." In November, reports appeared that the development of the Chinese Blockchain sector would bring a total annual growth rate of 65.7% from 2018 to 2023. And that the technology would exceed $ 2 billion by the end of 2023.

Technical Market Overview:

The BTC/USD pair is still under pressure from the bears as it has been trading in a narrow range located between the levels of $7,210 - $7,090. The bears are now back to the level of 50% Fibonacci retracement locatee at $7,133 and are testing it again. The three-wave upwards move on Bitcoin was a counter-trend correction that ended up at the level of $7,809 in form of a Shooting Star candlestick pattern. Since then the bears are trying to take back the control over the market and are pushing the prices towards the next target. The recent sudden spike up was capped at the level of $7,700 again and it was retraced in 100%. Currently, the market participants wait for a clear breakout in either direction and it more looks like the direction to the south.

Weekly Pivot Points:

WR3 - $8,491

WR2 - $8,082

WR1 - $7,829

Weekly Pivot - $7,397

WS1 - $7,107

WS2 - $6,723

WS3 - $6,444

Trading recommendations:

The best strategy in the current market conditions is to trade with the larger timeframe trend, which is still down. All the shorter timeframe moves are still being treated as a counter-trend correction inside of the uptrend. When the wave 2 corrective cycles are completed, the market might will ready for another impulsive wave up of a higher degree and uptrend continuation.

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Technical analysis of GBP/USD for 11/12/2019:

Technical Market Overview:

The GBP/USD pair has made another higher high located at the level of 1.3214 in overbought market conditions, but with the help of strong and positive momentum. Nevertheless, there is a Shooting Star like candlestick pattern formed at the tom fo the move up. It means the current uptrend might be turning lower as the bears are trying to take control over the market and test the nearest technical support is located at the level of 1.3101. The bulls are still in control of this market, but there are some signals of a possible uptrend reversal and the larger timeframe trend remains up as well.

Weekly Pivot Points:

WR3 - 1.3526

WR2 - 1.3331

WR1 - 1.3236

Weekly Pivot - 1.3076

WS1 - 1.2988

WS2 - 1.2812

WS3 - 1.2727

Trading recommendations:

The best strategy for current market conditions is to trade with the larger timeframe trend, which is up. All downward moves will be treated as local corrections in the uptrend. In order to reverse the trend from up to down, the key level for bulls is seen at 1.2756 and it must be clearly violated. The key long-term technical support is seen at the level of 1.2231 - 1.2224 and the key long-term technical resistance is located at the level of 1.3509.

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Technical analysis of EUR/USD for 11/12/2019:

Technical Market Overview:

The EUR/USD pair has bounced towards the level of 1.1096 as anticipated. The bulls have broken above the technical resistance at the level of 1.1064, but on the larger timeframe, the bears are taking control over the market again and might start pushing the prices lower, towards the technical support located at the level of 1.1024. The momentum is still positive and strong, but there is no reaction from bears yet.

Weekly Pivot Points:

WR3 - 1.1223

WR2 - 1.1169

WR1 - 1.1113

Weekly Pivot - 1.1058

WS1 - 1.1004

WS2 - 1.0947

WS3 - 1.0888

Trading recommendations:

The best strategy for current market conditions is to trade with the larger timeframe trend, which is down. All upward moves will be treated as local corrections in the downtrend. The downtrend is valid as long as it is terminated or the level of 1.1445 clearly violated. There is an Ending Diagonal price pattern visible on the larget timeframes that indicate a possible downtrend termination soon. The key short-term levels are technical support at the level of 1.0999 and the technical resistance at the level of 1.1267.

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Elliott wave analysis of GBP/JPY for December 11 - 2019

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GBP/JPY is trying to lift up despite the lack of upside momentum. However, as long as minor support at 142.37 is able to protect the downside, we could see a final spike higher to the target at 144.55 to complete red wave v and black wave iii and set the stage for a larger and long-term correction in black wave iv.

As black wave ii was with simple but deep zig-zag correction, we should expect black wave iv to shallow. So, now keep your focus on the upside as long as support at 142.37 is able to protect the upside.

R3: 144.55

R2: 143.87

R1: 143.25

Pivot: 142.34

S1: 141.70

S2: 141.24

S3: 140.88

Trading recommendation:

We are long GBP from 140.12 with our stop placed at 142.25. We will take half profit at 143.15 and half profit at 144.45 if seen.

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Elliott wave analysis of EUR/JPY for December 11 - 2019

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EUR/JPY has recovered from the corrective low at 119.96. Now, it is testing key resistance at 120.68. A break above will confirm more upside pressure in blue wave (iii) to 122.07 as the next minor milestone. EUR/JPY continues to rise towards 123.55.

Support is now seen at 120.50 and at 120.25. The latter is likely to protect the downside for the expected break above 120.68 and 121.01.

R3: 121.38

R2: 121.01

R1: 120.68

Pivot: 120.50

S1: 120.25

S2: 119.96

S3: 119.88

Trading recommendation:

We are long EUR from 120.25 and we have moved our stop higher to 119.85

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NASDAQ before the Fed

Good morning all,

The Nasdaq is trading now at 8359, a rough 1% away from ATH, we can anticipate kind of a traingle being formed during last 8 sessions.

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There's a curiosity, MM8 is crossing to the downside MM21 (bearish signal) but the price is above them all: I was not able to find another similar situation in past 2 years after a mid term rally.

The results of the Fed's meeting may spark volatility later in the day, watch out the price range 8320 / 8385. Be careful with false breaks and next targets would be 8270 to the downside, 8410 to the upside.

Stay safe

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Technical analysis: Important intraday Level For EUR/USD, December 11,2019

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The euro area will not release any macroeconomic statistics today. The US will unveil such economic data as Federal Budget Balance, Federal Funds Rate, Crude Oil Inventories, Core CPI m/m, and CPI m/m. So, amid the reports, EUR/USD will move in a medium to high volatility during this day.TODAY'S TECHNICAL LEVEL: Breakout BUY Level: 1.1147. Strong Resistance: 1.1141. Original Resistance: 1.1130. Inner Sell Area: 1.1119. Target Inner Area: 1.1093. Inner Buy Area: 1.1067. Original Support: 1.1056. Strong Support: 1.1045. Breakout SELL Level: 1.1039. (Disclaimer)

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Technical analysis: Important intraday Level for USD/JPY, December 11,2019

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Japan will publish such economic reports as the PPI y/y and BSI Manufacturing Index. The US is scheduled to unveil Federal Budget Balance, Federal Funds Rate, Crude Oil Inventories, Core CPI m/m, and CPI m/m. So, there is a probability that the USD/JPY pair will move with medium to high volatility during this day. TODAY'S TECHNICAL LEVEL: Resistance. 3:109.30. Resistance. 2:109.08. Resistance. 1:108.87. Support. 1:108.62. Support. 2:108.41. Support. 3:108.19. (Disclaimer)

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Promising deals until the end of the year

USD/CAD

The signal line of the leading indicator Marlin went above the zero line (0.00) in the daily chart - into the zone of positive values. This is an occasion to take a closer look at the purchase and at the target level.

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The Fibonacci grid points to a promising level of 1.3434 - this is the coincidence of the reaction level of 138.2% with the June 18 peak.

The classic rhombus along the first two branches of the loonie's movement forms a perspective convergence of the lines also at the level of 1.3434. There is an embedded line of the rising price channel at the same point, starting from the September 2017 low. The intersection of the lines form the date of December 22, but taking the weekends into account, the price will reach the target level exactly by the new year.

# ATT - telecommunication company AT&T

In November, the American telecommunications company AT&T sold a 42% stake in the Japanese company GSN Sony (The Game Show Network), which allowed the Japanese giant to penetrate into the cable and gaming space in the United States. From that moment, AT&T shares began to fall from the November 18 peak.

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After reaching a local low at 36.39 on November 20, the price corrected by 61.8%, where it met resistance by the MACD indicator trend line. The price turned down from it simultaneously with the reversal of the signal line of the Marlin oscillator from the boundary with the growth territory. The downward trend. We are waiting for the price in the region of the Fibonacci reaction level of 161.8% at the price of 34.55. This target level coincides with the peak on July 5, 2019 and is close to peaks on October 5 and September 24, 2018.

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GBP/USD: plan for the European session on December 11. Buyers of the pound did not like the significant fall in the Conservative

To open long positions on GBP/USD you need:

The British pound fell after regular polls in which it was indicated that the leadership of the Conservative Party of Great Britain significantly decreased the day before the general election, which makes the result even more unpredictable. Of course, it's still very early to talk about a turning point in the upward trend, but the bulls will be more careful about the market. I advise you to pay attention to the support level of 1.3108, since only the formation of a false breakout on it will be a signal to buy GBP/USD. More acceptable levels for opening long positions can be seen a little lower around 1.3049 and 1.2988, from where you can immediately buy for a rebound. The main task of the bulls in the first half of the day will be to return and consolidate above the middle of the channel of 1.3161, which may lead to re-updating the high of this month at 1.3209, where I recommend taking profits.

To open short positions on GBP/USD you need:

The sharp drop in the pound does not mean that sellers are returning to the market, but only indicates the uneasiness of the situation that is now observed in the market. Bears need to keep the pair below the resistance of 1.3161 today, and the formation of a false breakout there in the first half of the day will return the support of 1.3108, on which the further downward correction of GBP/USD will depend. Only good data on inflation in the US can force large players to open short positions below 1.3108, which will gradually push the pound to the lows of 1.3049 and 1.2988, where I recommend taking profits. It is hardly worth counting on a more powerful decline in the pair before the publication of election results in the UK. In the scenario of a pound growth above the resistance of 1.3161, one can look for short positions from this month's high near 1.3209, and I recommend that you immediately sell for a rebound from the resistance of 1.3265.

Signals of indicators:

Moving averages

Trade is conducted in the region of 30 and 50 moving average, which indicates the lateral nature of the market.

Bollinger bands

A break of the lower boundary of the indicator at 1.3108 will lead to a further downward correction of the pound, while growth will be limited by the upper level of the indicator at 1.3209.

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Description of indicators

  • Moving average (moving average determines the current trend by smoothing out volatility and noise). Period 50. The graph is marked in yellow.
  • Moving average (moving average determines the current trend by smoothing out volatility and noise). Period 30. The graph is marked in green.
  • MACD indicator (Moving Average Convergence / Divergence - moving average convergence / divergence) Fast EMA period 12. Slow EMA period 26. SMA period 9
  • Bollinger Bands (Bollinger Bands). Period 20
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EUR/USD: plan for the European session on December 11. US inflation data will confirm the Fed's decision

To open long positions on EURUSD you need:

Yesterday, the bulls were able to return the euro to an important resistance level of 1.1097, which I repeatedly paid attention to in my reviews. Today, the focus in the morning will shift to US inflation data, which could shed light on the Federal Reserve's final decision on interest rates, which will be announced this afternoon. To maintain an upward momentum, the bulls need a breakout and consolidation above the resistance of 1.1097, since we can expect a larger upward trend to the area of highs 1.1116 and 1.1135 in this scenario, where I recommend profit taking. In the scenario of EUR/USD decline in the morning, the formation of a false breakout in the support area of 1.1076 will be a signal to open long positions. Otherwise, it is best to buy the euro at a rebound from the lower boundary of the wide side channel in the region of 1.1053.

To open short positions on EURUSD you need:

Bears need to again form a false breakout in the resistance area of 1.1097, which will be the first signal to open short positions in the euro, however, it will be possible to talk about the return of large players to the market only after the release of inflation data in the US. If the result is better than economists' forecasts, sellers will quickly throw the euro into the support area of 1.1076, and consolidating below this range will lead to a larger sale in the area of a low of 1.1053, where I recommend profit taking, as it will be possible to break below this area only after the publication of the Fed's decision on the interest rate, which is expected in the afternoon. If the bears miss the resistance of 1.1097 in the morning, then it will be possible to talk about short positions after updating the high of 1.1116, and it is best to immediately sell for a rebound from the level of 1.1135.

Signals of indicators:

Moving averages

Trading is conducted above 30 and 50 moving average, which keeps the chance to continue the upward trend for the euro.

Bollinger bands

A break of the upper boundary of the indicator in the region of 1.1100 will lead to a new wave of euro growth, while a downward correction will be limited by the support of 1.1070.

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Description of indicators

  • Moving average (moving average determines the current trend by smoothing out volatility and noise). Period 50. The graph is marked in yellow.
  • Moving average (moving average determines the current trend by smoothing out volatility and noise). Period 30. The graph is marked in green.
  • MACD indicator (Moving Average Convergence / Divergence - moving average convergence / divergence) Fast EMA period 12. Slow EMA period 26. SMA period 9
  • Bollinger Bands (Bollinger Bands). Period 20
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Forecast for EUR/USD on December 11, 2019

EUR/USD

Yesterday's indicators on sentiment in business circles of the eurozone greatly exceeded expectations and the single currency closed the day with an increase of 28 points. The Eurozone ZEW Economic Sentiment index for December jumped from -1.0 to 11.2 points while expecting growth to 2.2 points, the German index grew from -2.1 to 10.7 while expecting 1.1 points.

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On the daily chart, the price exceeded strong resistance of the Fibonacci level of 123.6% and the embedded line of the price channel. The price exit above the signal level of 1.1116 (December 4 high) opens the way for further growth to the Fibonacci level of 110.0%. Today, the main news of the day will be the US central bank's decision on monetary policy, followed by a press conference by Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell. We do not expect strong movements in the euro until the evening, as it was yesterday.

What will be the Fed's forecasts on the economy and forecasts of the FOMC members on rates? The most obvious answer lies on the surface - economic forecasts will be moderately optimistic, rate forecasts will shift towards holding the current 1.75% almost until the fall-winter of next year. And if it turns out that way, then investors can count on maintaining the rate almost until the spring of 2021, until the new president takes office. A financial crisis may hinder this situation, the chances of the deployment of which are great next year, but so far this factor has not been taken into account.

In general, we expect the euro to return under the newfound support from the Fibonacci lines and the price channel and a further decrease in the price to the Fibonacci level of 138.2% at the price of 1.0985.

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On the four-hour chart, the signal line of the Marlin oscillator reached the boundary with the growth territory, from which the indicator can turn down, followed by a price drop.

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Forecast for GBP/USD on December 11, 2019

GBP/USD

The pound reached the target of 1.3206 at the Fibonacci level of 200.0% on Tuesday and sharply turned down from it. The convergence on the Marlin oscillator is almost ready, it remains only to wait for its confirmation. Formally, such a confirmation will be a price drop below the Fibonacci level of 161.8% (1.2968).

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On the four-hour chart, the expected convergence formed in a strongly inclined form, after the signal line went into the negative zone. This is a strong reversal pattern. The stop of the price reduction occurred on the MACD line.

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Here the price may be delayed until the news from the Federal Reserve meeting. Price fall below the MACD line (1.3104) opens the target at 1.2968. Consolidating the price at 1.2968 tomorrow will indicate that the pound is overestimated at current levels, in anticipation of the outcome of parliamentary elections in the UK and the results will be known on Friday morning.

So, we anticipate the British pound at the price of 1.2968 tomorrow.

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Forecast for USD/JPY on December 11, 2019

USD/JPY

The dollar slightly grew on Tuesday relative to the yen due to media reports that the US will not introduce new duties on Chinese goods from December 15th as "negotiations continue in an optimistic manner." But stock indexes are not in a hurry with such optimism; Yesterday, the S&P 500 fell 0.11%, while the Nikkei225 is losing 0.24% today. Chinese stock indexes hover near zero.

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On the daily chart, the current growth began after the price touched the trend line of the red price channel on Monday, and the MACD line connected on Tuesday. But the Marlin indicator line remains in the negative trend zone. Investors are in no hurry to take further action before today's Federal Reserve meeting and tomorrow's election to the British Parliament. At the same time, the Tankan indices are expected to deteriorate on Friday - quarterly indicators of business activity in the manufacturing and non-manufacturing sectors: Tankan Manufacturing may fall from 5 to 3 in the 4-1 quarter, Tankan Non-Manufacturing is expected to be 16 points versus 21 in the previous period.

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The signal line of the Marlin oscillator in the growth zone on the H4 chart. This factor makes it possible to sustain growth, and overcoming the resistance of the MACD line (108.96) can extend the growth in the range of 109.30/50. Price fall below the signal level of 108.44 - the low of December 9 and 4, opens the target of 107.60 - support of the green price channel embedded line. The down option is still the main one.

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Fractal analysis for major currency pairs on December 11

Forecast for December 11:

Analytical review of currency pairs on the scale of H1:

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For the euro / dollar pair, the key levels on the H1 scale are: 1.1170, 1.1130, 1.1114, 1.1096, 1.1065, 1.1048 and 1.1024. Here, we are following the development of the upward cycle of November 29. We expect a short-term upward movement, as well as consolidation in the range of 1.1096 - 1.1114. The breakdown of the level of 1.1114 will lead to a movement to 1.1130. Price consolidation is near this level. For the potential value for the top, we consider the level of 1.1170. The movement to which is expected after the breakdown of the level of 1.1130.

Short-term downward movement is expected in the range of 1.1065 - 1.1048. The breakdown of the last value will lead to an in-depth correction. Here, the goal is 1.1024. This level is a key support for the upward structure.

The main trend is the formation of initial conditions for the top of November 29, the correction stage

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 1.1096 Take profit: 1.1114

Buy: 1.1114 Take profit: 1.1130

Sell: 1.1065 Take profit: 1.1050

Sell: 1.1046 Take profit: 1.1026

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For the pound / dollar pair, the key levels on the H1 scale are: 1.3249, 1.3205, 1.3150, 1.3102, 1.3075 and 1.3025. Here, we are following the development of the upward cycle of November 27. The continuation of the movement to the top is expected after the breakdown of the level of 1.3150. In this case, the target is 1.3205. Price consolidation is near this level. For the potential value for the top, we consider the level of 1.3249. Upon reaching this level, we expect consolidation, as well as a pullback to the bottom.

Short-term downward movement is possibly in the range of 1.3102 - 1.3075. The breakdown of the last value will lead to an in-depth correction. Here, the target is 1.3025. This level is a key support for the top.

The main trend is the upward cycle of November 27

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 1.3150 Take profit: 1.3205

Buy: 1.3207 Take profit: 1.3247

Sell: 1.3102 Take profit: 1.3076

Sell: 1.3073 Take profit: 1.3027

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For the dollar / franc pair, the key levels on the H1 scale are: 0.9915, 0.9884, 0.9864, 0.9820, 0.9789 and 0.9745. Here, we are following the development of the downward structure of November 29. The continuation of movement to the bottom is expected after the breakdown of the level of 0.9820. In this case, the target is 0.9789. Price consolidation is near this level. The breakdown of the level of 0.9789 should be accompanied by a pronounced downward movement. In this case, the potential target is 0.9745. We expect a rollback to correction from this level.

Short-term upward movement is possibly in the range of 0.9864 - 0.9884. The breakdown of the latter value will lead to in-depth movement. Here, the target is 0.9915. This level is a key support for the downward structure of November 29.

The main trend is the downward structure of November 29

Trading recommendations:

Buy : 0.9864 Take profit: 0.9883

Buy : 0.9885 Take profit: 0.9913

Sell: 0.9820 Take profit: 0.9791

Sell: 0.9787 Take profit: 0.9745

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For the dollar / yen pair, the key levels on the scale are : 109.31, 109.06, 108.85, 108.58, 108.31, 108.10, 107.80 and 107.62. Here, we are following the descending structure of December 2. Short-term movement to the bottom is possibly in the range 108.31 - 108.10. The breakdown of the last value will lead to a pronounced movement. Here, the goal is 107.80. For the potential value for the bottom, we consider the level of 107.62. Upon reaching which, we expect consolidation, as well as a rollback to the top.

Short-term upward movement is expected in the range 108.85 - 109.06. The breakdown of the last value will lead to an in-depth correction. Here, the goal is 109.31. This level is a key support for the downward structure.

Main trend: descending structure of December 2

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 108.85 Take profit: 109.04

Buy : 109.08 Take profit: 109.30

Sell: 108.30 Take profit: 108.12

Sell: 108.08 Take profit: 107.80

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For the Canadian dollar / US dollar pair, the key levels on the H1 scale are: 1.3372, 1.3344, 1.3303, 1.3270, 1.3222, 1.3198 and 1.3155. Here, we are following the formation of the ascendant structure of December 5. The continuation of the movement to the top is expected after the breakdown of the level of 1.3270. In this case, the target is 1.3303. Price consolidation is near this level. The breakdown of the level of 1.3306 will lead to a pronounced movement. Here, the target is 1.3344. The potential value for the top is considered to be the level of 1.3372. Upon reaching which, we expect consolidation, also a rollback to correction.

Short-term downward movement is possibly in the range of 1.3222 - 1.3198. The breakdown of the latter value will lead to the development of a downward trend. Here, the target is 1.3155.

The main trend is the formation of the ascending structure of December 5

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 1.3270 Take profit: 1.3303

Buy : 1.3305 Take profit: 1.3344

Sell: 1.3220 Take profit: 1.3200

Sell: 1.3196 Take profit: 1.3160

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For the Australian dollar / US dollar pair, the key levels on the H1 scale are : 0.6878, 0.6851, 0.6830, 0.6807, 0.6797 and 0.6781. Here, we are following the formation of expressed initial conditions for the top of November 29. At the moment, the price is in the correction zone from this structure. Short-term upward movement is expected in the range of 0.6830 - 0.6851. The breakdown of the level of 0.6851 will lead to a marked development of the upward trend. Here, the potential target is 0.6878. Price consolidation is near this value.

Short-term downward movement is expected in the range of 0.6807 - 0.6797. The breakdown of the last value will lead to an in-depth correction. Here, the target is 0.6781. This level is a key support for the upward structure.

The main trend is the formation of expressed initial conditions for the top of November 29, the correction stage

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 0.6830 Take profit: 0.6848

Buy: 0.6853 Take profit: 0.6878

Sell : 0.6807 Take profit : 0.6797

Sell: 0.6795 Take profit: 0.6783

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For the euro / yen pair, the key levels on the H1 scale are: 121.45, 121.25, 120.98, 120.76, 120.35, 120.17, 119.93 and 119.66. Here, the price is in equilibrium: the descending structure of December 5, as well as the ascending structure of December 9. The development of the upward trend is expected after the breakdown of the level of 120.76. In this case, the target is 120.98. Price consolidation is near this level. The breakdown of the level of 121.00 should be accompanied by a pronounced upward movement. Here, the goal is 121.25. For the potential value for the top, we consider the level of 121.45. Upon reaching which, we expect a rollback to the correction.

Short-term downward movement is possibly in the range of 120.35 - 120.17. The breakdown of the latter value will have the downward structure development from December 5, and in this case, the first goal is 119.93. For the potential value for the bottom, we consider the level of 119.66.

The main trend is the equilibrium situation.

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 120.76 Take profit: 120.96

Buy: 121.00 Take profit: 121.25

Sell: 120.35 Take profit: 120.20

Sell: 120.15 Take profit: 119.95

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For the pound / yen pair, the key levels on the H1 scale are : 144.56, 144.06, 143.45, 143.09, 142.50, 142.06 and 141.51. Here, we are following the ascending structure of December 4. Short-term movement to the top is expected in the range of 143.09 - 143.45. The breakdown of the last value will lead to a pronounced movement. Here, the goal is 144.06. For the potential value for the top, we consider the level of 144.56. Upon reaching this value, we expect consolidation, as well as a pullback to the bottom.

Short-term downward movement is possibly in the range of 142.50 - 142.06. The breakdown of the last value will lead to an in-depth correction. Here, the goal is 141.51. This level is a key support for the top.

The main trend is the local ascending structure of December 4

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 143.10 Take profit: 143.44

Buy: 143.50 Take profit: 144.06

Sell: 142.50 Take profit: 142.10

Sell: 142.04 Take profit: 141.54

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Euro's enormous efforts: course for recovery

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Sometimes, in order to move faster and conquer new peaks, it is necessary to make incredible efforts. According to experts, this thesis is quite relevant with regard to the European currency. The euro has to spend a lot of energy to stay afloat, but the reward is a well-deserved success.

Recently, the European currency has lost the lion's share of its victories, but is still trying to maintain its gained position. Pressure on the euro has a high probability of a recession in the German economy, analysts say. Note that Germany is considered the economic locomotive of the eurozone, so its impact on the dynamics of the euro is difficult to overestimate. The German authorities are not able to take drastic measures to improve the situation, so the European currency is experiencing significant difficulties.

The dynamics of the single currency has been in a downward trend since June 2018. Experts draw attention to the high risk of a further decline, which could lead to the renewal of the October lows of 2019. Recall that two months ago, the euro fell to 1.0900, the lowest level since the first half of 2017.

Currently, the euro is a little perked up and began the morning of Tuesday, December 10, on the positive. The EUR/USD pair reached the level of 1.1068 and moved up.

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After a while, the pair rose to 1.1075, showing an upward trend. The EUR/USD pair still runs in the range of 1.1074–1.1075, trying to overcome these boundaries.

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The pair rose to the level of 1.1077, but retreated afterwards. It proved to be difficult for the pair to gain a foothold at these lines.

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Analysts are focusing on a number of factors that could support the euro. These include the recovery of the eurozone economy, the high likelihood of the implementation of the "soft" Brexit, as well as the weakening of trade tension between the US and China. Another important incentive for the euro can be the status of a key funding currency. This was facilitated by the drop in the volatility of the euro to extremely low levels, due to which it can be used for carry trade operations. Most large banks, including ABN Amro, Commerzbank and Morgan Stanley, forecast a rise in the euro to $1.1400– $1.1600 in 2020.

Despite the current decline and incredible pressure, the euro seeks to strengthen its position. Experts predict that the euro will collapse, but do not discount its strength and stability. The market expects an early recovery of the second global currency, and it seeks to meet these expectations.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Pound summersaults: outrageous volatility and Death Cross

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This week promises the British currency with strong price fluctuations associated with the upcoming elections. Analysts estimate the pound as the most volatile instrument of the month, but after the end of the election in the UK its dynamics will return to a calmer course. The market is closely monitoring both the political background of the Great Britain and the sterling's balance.

Recall that this Thursday, December 12, early parliamentary elections will be held in the UK, which will decide the fate of the pound and determine the vector of movement of the country. According to recent polls, the Conservative Party, led by Prime Minister Boris Johnson, still has a significant advantage. Experts are certain that the victory of the ruling party will put an end to the three-year confrontation regarding the conditions for Britain to leave the European Union. The lion's share of the votes cast for the Conservative Party will help form a parliamentary majority. If this scenario is realized, the UK will be able to leave the euro bloc on January 31, 2020. If Labour won, the question with Brexit will remain open. Experts do not rule out a new referendum in this situation, as well as increased uncertainty in the country.

Nevertheless, many market participants believe in the victory of Conservatives. The positive mood is facilitated by the recovery dynamics of the British stock market and the national currency. A fly in the ointment can only be found when a Death Cross is formed in relation to the GBP/EUR pair. Experts do not exclude that in the next three months, sterling will rise in price by 2% against the euro. Recall that on Monday, December 9, the British currency in the GBP/EUR pair significantly strengthened, updating highs over the last 2.5 years. However, sterling later went negative. As a result, the Death Cross was formed. According to experts, this happened for the fourth time in ten years.

However, the main attention of analysts is focused on the current bullish rally of the GBP/USD pair, which may last up to the resistance level of 1.3370. Note that yesterday the British currency rose in relation to the greenback by 0.3%, to 1.3181. Over the current month, the pound strengthened by 3% against the greenback amid confidence in Johnson's victory in the upcoming elections.

The GBP/USD pair started at 1.3157 on Tuesday, December 10, showing a tendency to increase.

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The pair increased after a while, near the levels of 1.3159–1.3161. Subsequently, the GBP/USD pair tried to get out of this range, but these efforts did not lead to anything. The pair then slumped to the next lows.

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The GBP/USD pair traded at low positions, in the range of 1.3150–1.3151. At the same time, it seeks to get out of this range, however, these attempts have not yet been crowned with success.

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Moreover, the GBP/USD pair went to an extraordinary depth, almost feeling the bottom. The pair has fallen to levels 1.3136-1.3138, and is now trying to recover.

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The pound's position remains unstable this week, but is trying hard to stay afloat. The fluctuation of the British currency is demonstrated by various somersaults, which confuses the market. Experts believe that the sterling will be able to overcome the attraction of volatility by gathering strength before the start of the election campaign. Analysts count on its stability even in the event that election results are not that positive.

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GBP/USD. December 10. Results of the day. Will Boris Johnson get a "ruling majority" government?

4-hour timeframe

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Amplitude of the last 5 days (high-low): 82p - 138p - 65p - 66p - 50p.

Average volatility over the past 5 days: 81p (average).

The GBP/USD currency pair continues its upward movement, not paying attention to anything. There has not been a significant strengthening of the pound today, however, no correction has begun. This is despite the fact that two more important macroeconomic indicators came out in the UK today. However, market participants once again, out of habit, ignored them, and we can only ask ourselves questions: "When will all the failed macroeconomic reports from the UK be worked out" and "where will the pound go when the traders pay attention to the failed statistics on Great Britain?" "As you might guess, both Tuesday's publications failed, as did virtually all of the statistics from the UK over the past two months. In monthly terms, GDP showed zero growth, a month earlier a value of -0.1% MOM was recorded, and a month earlier there were even losses of -0.2% MOM. Industrial production grew by a meager 0.1% in October, while expert forecasts predicted an increase of at least 0.2% MOM. In annual terms, industrial production lost 1.3%. However, traders are not interested in this information right now. Market participants continue to see a bright future with Boris Johnson at the head of the country, at the head of Parliament and outside the European Union. We will not discuss now whether it is really good for Britain to leave the EU. Three years after the referendum, such a question should not be raised at all. However, from time to time he still appears on the front of the stage. And with it, discussions begin, how all of Johnson's plans can end. The prime minister's plans, who still has not won more than one significant victory at the helm of the country.

Only two days left before the fateful parliamentary elections. All sociological polls say the same thing: Conservatives are leading and their leadership is +9-14% over Labour. The rest of the parties, according to polls, are far behind. According to the calculations of The Times newspaper, in this alignment of forces, Conservatives can get more than half of the parliamentary mandates, which will allow them to form a majority government and, accordingly, freely implement Brexit. However, this may not happen, some experts say. The biggest danger for the Conservative Party now is the so-called "tactical vote." Voting, in which a vote will not be given for a particular party, because the British citizen is suited by the political principles and the program of this particular party and deputy, but in which the vote will be "for" Brexit or "against" Brexit. Incidentally, we have repeatedly talked about this long before the election. Despite the strong position of the Conservatives, we recall that 48% of the British population were against Brexit back in 2016 and, accordingly, can vote for anyone other than the Conservatives. Moreover, now that the regions that support the Labour Party, which support the Conservatives, are approximately known, according to the organization "Best for Britain", clearly coordinated actions of only 40,000 people can be enough for the Conservatives not to get the majority of seats in Parliament. For example, it is possible to determine regions where the distribution of votes between Conservatives and Labour may be approximately the same and then every thousand or one hundred votes for one or another deputy will matter. In such regions, actions can be held aimed at preventing the Conservatives from winning and preventing Brexit from taking place.

Therefore, the pound continues to show its favorite form of strengthening in the last three years - "growth on expectations." Expectations for a brighter future and the implementation of Brexit. However, if suddenly the election results show that the Conservatives can not form a ruling, then a wave of disappointment can overwhelm traders, and the pound will go back to its multi-year lows. Then traders will remember all the failed macroeconomic statistics at once. If Johnson's party nevertheless wins by the necessary margin from the pursuers, then two options are possible for the pound sterling. The first is no reaction from traders, since the current pound sterling rate has already taken into account the victory of Boris Johnson three times. The second is that if a wave of optimism engulfs markets even more, then British currency purchases will continue. However, even in this situation, sooner or later, traders will begin to pay attention to the weak macroeconomic statistics of Great Britain.

Trading recommendations:

GBP/USD resumed a slight upward movement. Thus, it is now recommended to trade for an increase while aiming for 1.3216 and 1.33234. It is not recommended to consider selling the pound now, since the pair is far from the Kijun-sen critical line, traders ignore any macroeconomic data, and the pound rises in price solely on expectations of the Conservative party winning the election. The consumer price index in the United States will be published tomorrow, as well as the Fed meeting, but these events can also be ignored by market participants.

Explanation of the illustration:

Ichimoku indicator:

Tenkan-sen is the red line.

Kijun-sen is the blue line.

Senkou Span A - light brown dotted line.

Senkou Span B - light purple dashed line.

Chikou Span - green line.

Bollinger Bands Indicator:

3 yellow lines.

MACD indicator:

Red line and bar graph with white bars in the indicator window.

Support / Resistance Classic Levels:

Red and gray dotted lines with price symbols.

Pivot Level:

Yellow solid line.

Volatility Support / Resistance Levels:

Gray dotted lines without price designations.

Possible price movement options:

Red and green arrows.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

GBP/USD: pound still has room for growth before the election, and then everything is not so simple

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GBP/USD rose to seven-month highs amid increasing chances of the Conservative Party winning early Parliament elections in the UK on December 12.

According to recent polls, Tory's separation from Labour rose by more than 10% compared with 9% a week ago.

"The bullish movement of quotes shows: market participants are more and more confident that Conservatives can get a majority on Thursday. However, as soon as the initial euphoria disappears, it will be more difficult for the pound to continue its growth in 2020," MUFG experts say.

They do not exclude the possibility that British Prime Minister Boris Johnson will need an extension of the Brexit transition period, which expires at the end of next year, which will open the door for the country to leave the EU without a trade agreement.

"The current pound exchange rate implies the belief that Brexit will really happen and some kind of trade deal will be closed in 2020. However, uncertain times may still come, even if Thursday's result brings some temporary relief from the majority of the ruling Conservative Party (as polls show)," said Michael Metcalfe of State Street Global Markets.

The GBP/USD pair reached its highest level since May, rising to 1.3180 on Monday.

"The pound may continue to rise against the US dollar on Tuesday if the Conservatives strengthen their leadership over the Labour Party following the publication of a YouGov poll," BMO Capital Markets believes.

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Today, YouGov will unveil its second and final multilevel regression and post-stratification survey, which successfully predicted the 2017 election results.

"If the gap between Conservatives and Labour is 11% or more, we expect continued growth of GBP/USD," said BMO strategist Stephen Gallo.

"The pound is now trading with a clear preference for Conservative victory in the upcoming elections, but this outcome is far from certain," RBC Capital Markets warned.

"There are several serious uncertainties, namely: voter turnout (especially among younger voters), potential tactical voting, and a large proportion of voters who are still undecided in the polls that polls still reveal. The pound's last jump, which would entail the victory of the Conservatives, is likely to mark the British reaching a local peak, as markets will move on to other Brexit risks," said RBC expert Adam Cole.

According to Matthew Cady of Brooks Macdonald, any rebound in the pound, stocks and UK government bond yields amid the Conservative Party gaining most seats in the House of Commons in the December 12 elections will only be a short-term relief.

"The attention of the markets will quickly return to uncertainty regarding the ability of Great Britain to agree on new trade relations with the EU. They will be allotted only 11 months after the expiration of the Brexit deadline on January 31, when the transition agreement agreed by Johnson and the EU comes into force," the analyst said.

"The United Kingdom may face another deadline, now December 31, 2020, and there is a risk of a return to WTO rules with the EU if by the end of next year the issue of maintaining the country's membership in the trade union is not resolved or new trade agreements appear" - he added.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com