Gold analysis for October 17, 2014

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Overview:


Since our last analysis, gold has been trading sideways around the price of 1,238.00. We are facing very quiet day on the market and very low volume. We can observe rejection from our resistnace level at the price of 1,244.00 (Fibonacci retracement 38.2%). I have placed Fibonacci retracement to find potential support levels and I got Fibonacci retracement 38.2% at the price of 1,224.00. According to the 4H timeframe, we can observe sideways movement in a volume below the average. We are waiting for larger volume and stronger price action . Be careful when buying and watch for potential selling opportunities. Any larger supply may confirm futher bearish movement.


Daily pivot Fibonacci points:


Resistance levels:


R1: 1,244.64


R2: 1,247.10


R3: 1,251.07


Support levels


S1: 1,236.70


S2: 1,234.24


S3: 1,230.27


Trading recommendations: Buying still looks risky since gold is near resistance level.


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Technical analysis of USD/JPY for October 17, 2014

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Fundamental overview:


USD/JPY is expected to trade in lower range. It is underpinned by the yen-funded carry trades amid receding investor risk aversion (VIX fear gauge eased 4.0% to 25.2, S&P 500 closed up 0.01% at 1,862.76 after falling as low as 1,835.02 overnight) after Fed's Bullard said the U.S. central bank should consider delaying the end of its bond-buying program, expected after its Oct. 28-29 meeting, to halt the decline in inflation expectations and improved USD sentiment after unexpected 23,000 drop in U.S. jobless claims to 14-year low of 264,000 in week ended Oct. 11 (versus forecast 290,000), stronger-than-expected 1.0% increase in U.S. September industrial production (versus forecast +0.4%) for largest monthly increase in three years, while capacity utilization rose more-than-expected to 79.3% in September--highest level since June 2008 (versus forecast 79.0%), less-than-expected drop in Philadelphia Fed's index of general business activity to 20.7 in October from 22.5 in September (versus forecast 19.9). USD/JPY is also supported by the higher U.S. Treasury yields (10-year at 2.152% versus 2.092% late Wednesday), demand from Japan importers and ultra-loose Bank of Japan's monetary policy and rebounding oil prices (Nymex crude settled up 92 cents Thursday at $82.70/bbl after hitting more-than-two-year low of $79.78/bbl). But USD sentiment is dented by the surprise drop in U.S. NAHB housing market index to 54 in October from 59 in September (versus forecast for no change). USD/JPY gains also tempered by Japan exporter sales; positions adjustment before weekend. Data focus: 1230 GMT U.S. September housing starts (forecast +4.6%) and building permits (forecast +2.3%), 1235 GMT Fed Chairwoman Janet Yellen speech, 1400 GMT preliminary University of Michigan October consumer sentiment survey (forecast 84.0). Daily chart is mixed as MACD is bearish, five-day moving average is below 15-day MA and is declining but stochastics turned bullish at oversold zone, inside-day-range pattern was completed on Thursday.


Technical comment:
Daily chart is negative-biased as bearish outside-day-range pattern was completed on Wednesday, MACD is bearish, stochastics stays suppressed at oversold zone, five-day moving average is below 15-day MA and is declining.


Trading recommendations:
The pair is trading below its pivot point. It is likely to trade in a lower range as far as it remains below its pivot point. Short position is recommended with the first target at 106.05. A break of this target will move the pair further downwards to 105.70. The pivot point stands at 106.80. In case the price moves in the opposite direction and bounces back from the support level, then it will move above its pivot point. It is likely to move further to the upside. In that scenario, a long position is recommended with the first target at 107.05 and the second target at 107.55.


Resistance levels:

107.05

107.55

107.85


Support levels:

106.05

105.70

105.50


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Technical analysis of USD/CHF for October 17, 2014

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Fundamental overview:


USD/CHF is expected to range-trade. It is Weighed by the franc demand on buoyant CHF/JPY cross. But USD/CHF downside is limited by improved USD sentiment after unexpected 23,000 drop in U.S. jobless claims to 14-year low of 264,000 in week ended Oct. 11 (versus forecast 290,000), stronger-than-expected 1.0% increase in U.S. September industrial production (versus forecast +0.4%) for largest monthly increase in three years, while capacity utilization rose more-than-expected to 79.3% in September--highest level since June 2008 (versus forecast 79.0%), less-than-expected drop in Philadelphia Fed's index of general business activity to 20.7 in October from 22.5 in September (versus forecast 19.9), franc sales on rebounding EUR/CHF cross, dovish Swiss National Bank's monetary policy and positions adjustment before weekend.


Technical comments:
Daily chart is still negative-biased as MACD and stochastics are bearish, five-day moving average is below 15-day MA and is declining although inside-day-range pattern was completed on Thursday.


Trading recommendations:


The pair is trading below its pivot point. It is likely to trade in a lower range as far as it remains below its pivot point. Short position is recommended with the first target at 0.9385. A break of this target will move the pair further downwards to 0.9350. The pivot point stands at 0.9500. In case the price moves in the opposite direction and bounces back from the support level, then it will moves above its pivot point. It is likely to move further to the upside. In that scenario, a long position is recommended with the first target at 0.9525 and the second target at 0.9560.


Resistance levels:

0.9525

0.9560

0.96



Support levels:


0.9385

0.9350

0.9315


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Technical analysis of NZD/USD for October 17, 2014

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Fundamental overview:


NZD/USD is expected to range-trade. It is supported by the subdued investor risk aversion and NZD-USD interest differential and firmer dairy prices. But NZD/USD upside limited by improved USD sentiment after unexpected 23,000 drop in U.S. jobless claims to 14-year low of 264,000 in week ended Oct. 11 (versus forecast 290,000), stronger-than-expected 1.0% increase in U.S. September industrial production (versus forecast +0.4%) for largest monthly increase in three years, while capacity utilization rose more-than-expected to 79.3% in September--highest level since June 2008 (versus forecast 79.0%), less-than-expected drop in Philadelphia Fed's index of general business activity to 20.7 in October from 22.5 in September (versus forecast 19.9) and positions adjustment before weekend.


Technical comment:

Daily chart is still positive-biased as MACD and stochastics are bullish and five-day moving average is above 15-day MA and advancing.


Trading recommendations:
The pair is trading above its pivot point. It is likely to trade in a higher range as far as it remains above its pivot point. As long as the price is keeping above its pivot point, a long position is recommended with the first target at 0.8 and the second target at 0.8050. In an alternative scenario, if the price moves below its pivot points, short positions are recommended with the first target at 0.7840. A break of this target would push the pair further downwards and one may expect the second target at 0.8. The pivot point is at 0.7885.


Resistance levels:

0.8000

0.8050

0.8075



Support levels:


0.7840

0.78

0.7760


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Technical analysis of USD/CAD for October 17, 2014

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Overview :



  • The USD/CAD pair is going to call for a sideways market on October 17, 2014 and the price will probably move between the level of 1.1163 and the 1.1265 level in order to form a range of 114 pips in coming hours. However, risk to reward ratios is important and should be calculated, then a risk (76 pips) reward ratio of 1:1.5 is recommended; it must make a profit of 114 pips. The supports set at the level of 1.1200 - 1.1165. Therefore, the buyers are going to buy above 1.1200 - 1.1165 with a first target of 1.1230, it might resume to 1.1270. However, the stop loss should never exceed your maximum exposure amounts. Hence, set stop loss below the support of 1.1165. In the short term, the resistance is set at the level of 1.1265 (61.8% of Fibonacci retracement levels in the H1 chart) , so the trend will call for a bearish market at the level of 1.1265 in order to retest the spot of 1.1235 - 1.1240 because there are a minor bearish channel.


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  • In the H4 chart, the trend is still calling for bullish market because upward trend is still strong. Moreover, the value of the RSI indicator is neutral but seems positive and quiet.


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Technical analysis of USD/CHF for October 17, 2014

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Overview :



  • In the long term, the price of USD/CHF pair is still moving between the level of 0.9350 and 0.9455 but it should noticed that the price has set above strong support at the level of 0.9350 (0.9350: 50% of Fibonacci retracement levels in H4 chart). Moreover, it is worthy of note that these levels are coinciding between 50% and 78.6% of Fibonacci retracement levels in H1 chart and the pair has already formed a strong support at the area of 0.9350 - 0.9365. So now it is approaching to it in order to test it. Therefore, the USD/CHF pair upside momentum is rather convincing and the structure of increase does not look corrective. In order to indicate a bullish opportunity above 0.9350 - 0.9365, it will a good sign to buy above 0.9350 - 0.9365 with a first target of 0.9430. It will call for uptrend continuing rising towards 0.9500 in order to test a resistance on October 17, 2014. Consequently, if the trend will be able to break the resistance (0.9500) then the market will lead to the price of 0.9535. Alos, it should be noted that the level of 0.9535 is representing the 78.6% of Fibonacci retracement levels.


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Gold technical analysis for October 17, 2014

Gold price continues to trade in a triangle pattern between $1,236 and $1,244. This consolidation will end once we break either level. My longer-term view remains bearish towards $1,050. Short-term trend is bullish as price makes higher highs and higher lows.


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Blue lines= support


Red line= resistance


Gold price has reached the 50% retracement and is consolidating near its highs. As long as price is above $1,220 we could see another higher high towards $1,255-60. Short-term trend remains bullish as long as price is above the Ichimoku cloud and above the two horizontal blue trend lines. Important short-term support level is at $1,220. Resistance is found at $1,255.


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Blue line = support


Red line = resistance


In the 30 minute chart above I point out the triangle pattern we are currently in. Very short-term trend is neutral as long as price is inside the triangle and it is advised to be neutral and wait for a breakout. My longer-term view remains however bearish targeting $1,050.


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Technical analysis of USD/CAD for October 17, 2014

General overview for 17/10/2014 08:40 CET


The choppy trading conditions in wave (4) black has been anticipated yesterday, as the market is trying to unload the excessive amount of long positions in the recent trading range. As long as the key level of 1.1220 is not violated the bias is still bullish, but any breakout lower immediately exposes the level of 1.1080.


Support/Resistance:


1.1385 - Swing High


1.1369 - WR2


1.1291 - WR1


1.1227 - Intraday Support


1.1220 - Black Impulsive Count Invalidation Line


1.1186 - Weekly Pivot


Trading recommendation:


Not much has changed since yesterday and still traders should put an eye on the level of 1.1220, because as long as the level of 1.1220 is not broken the bias is still bullish as there is at least one more wave to the upside missing to complete the cycle. Buying the dips are advised with SL below the level of 1.1219.


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Technical analysis of EUR/JPY for October 17, 2014

General Overview for 17/10/2014 08:30 CET


The wave A black has been finally completed and the projected target level has been hit and even broken to the downside before the market has bounced upwards. Nevertheless, the key level has still not been violated and the market is still trading below the weekly pivot at the level of 136.30. Only a breakout higher above this area would be considered as a bullish clue, but please remember that the market is still inside of the larger time frame corrective structure (either triangle or zig-zag) and price action might get very choppy and full of whipsaws. Only a breakout below the level of 134.11 invalidates this slightly bullish view.


Support/Resistance:


133.98 - WS2


134.11 - Swing Low


134.66 - WS1


135.08 - Intraday Support


136.30 - Weekly Pivot


136.40 - Intraday Resistance


136.55 - Technical Resistance|Key Level|


Trading recommendations:


As long as the market stays below the level of 136.55 only sales should be considered, but any breakout above this level is bullish.


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Technical analysis of GBP/JPY for October 17, 2014

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The pair continued its downward journey and is trading below 50Wsma. Today the pair opened above the previous close, but was rejected at 200Dsma. For the short term perspective, the pair has weekly support at 171.00, 50Wsma, on a closing basis, the same provided support on September 2014 at 169.36 levels. In case, if the pair closes below this, 170.62, 200Dema, will act as another major support. In the weekly chart, the base of the triangle providing enough support in the short term on a closing basis. For bears, until the price closes above 173.32 sell on every rise on a positional basis.


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For an intraday view, the prices are trading below hourly moving averages. The price has resistance at 171.55. Until the prices close below 171.55 in the h4 chart, use every rise to sell. For an hourly trades, risky traders use sl 171.55 levels.


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Trading recommendation on Gold of October 17, 2014

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The strong US data gave strength to the greenback and pushed the yellow metal further down from the key resistance zone at $1,240-$1,250 levels. In the past few days the metal was supported by IMF concerns, slowing German economy and the cooling of the bets on the Fed interest rate hike in the near term. Gold is still holding the triple bottom near $1,180 levels. In yesterday's session the metal made a high at $1,244.80 facing strong resistance at 50Dsma $1,252. As of now today the metal took support at $1,236.60 levels. In case, if the metal closes above $1,252 on a daily basis, then only it can rally up to $1,264, $1,274, $1,278 and $1,285 levels. The short- and medium-term trend still looks bearish. Alternatively on the down side, in case if the metal breaks below $1,238 it has support at $1,235, $1,232 and $1,217 levels. In the daily chart, the stochastics is indicating selling.


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For an intraday view, the prices are trading below 12ema and 35DEMA. In Asia's session the metal was rejected at 35DEMA and is trading below 12ema as well. Until the metal trades below $1,245, bears have an upper hand. If the metal sustains above $1,245 it can test $1,249, $1,254 and $1,257 levels. On the down side it has support at $1,235, below this, $1,231, $1,228, $1,223.50 and $1,221.70 will act as support levels. We can see weakness below $1,235 and selling pressure, below $1,231 levels.


Buying above $1,245


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Review on EUR/JPY for October 17, 2014

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The pair breaks below the base of the triangle in the weekly chart. Three consecutive days the pair fell below the base of the triangle, but at the end of the day it closed above the base of the triangle. In yesterday's session, the pair made a low at 134.13 which touches my target at 134.50 to 134.00 (recorded in October 13, 2014 article). But at the end of the day the pair completely erased its losses and closed in positive territory, it represents some value buying for this pair at the lower levels. The support of the pair is at 135.50 Tuesday and Wednesday closing and opening levels. Today the pair opened above the previous close, same as yesterday. On a monthly basis, as of now the pair has broken below the 20Msma, but managed to trade above that. For the positional view, a monthly close below 135.35, on the down side the pair has next nearest support at 132.60 100Wsma and 131.40 100Msma levels.


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As of now, today the pair is unable to breach 136.54 levels, we recommend strong buying above 136.54 levels for targets at 137.06 and 137.60. In the h4 chart, the pair has been facing strong resistance at descending trend line. Buyers can start buying above 136.54 and selling, below 135.75.


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Technical analysis oа EURUSD for October 17, 2014

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Еhe strong US data pushed the pair 130 pips down, but in the end it managed to pare its intraday losses. In yesterday's session the pair touched 20Dsma and bounced from there. On the down side, below 1.2713 the pair has support between 1.2625-1.2606 levels. Today the pair opened below the previous close and as of now the pair has been unable to breach previous open at 1.2838 levels. We recommend fresh buying only above 1.2838, safe buying, above 1.2845, with targets at 1.2901 and 1.2955 (50Dsma). For an intraday view, the support level is at 1.2791, below this, 1.2768. We recommend safe selling below 1.2768 for targets at 1.2733 and 1.2712. Below 34hrsma (1.2700), we can see a sharp fall of 50-60 pips immediately.


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Technical analysis of EUR/USD for October 17, 2014

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Today, when the euro zone market opens, they will not release any economic data, but the US will release economic statistics such as the Building Permits, Housing Starts, Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment, Prelim UoM Inflation Expectations, and the Fed Chair Yellen Speech, so amid the reports, EUR/USD will move with low to medium volatility during this day.

TODAY TECHNICAL LEVELS:

Breakout BUY Level: 1.2867.

Strong Resistance:1.2860.

Original Resistance: 1.2847.

Inner Sell Area: 1.2834.

Target Inner Area: 1.2804.

Inner Buy Area: 1.2774.

Original Support: 1.2761.

Strong Support: 1.2748.

Breakout SELL Level: 1.2741.


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Technical analysis of USD/JPY for October 17, 2014

In Asia, Japan will not release any economic reports, but the US will release some economic data such as Building Permits, Housing Starts, Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment, Prelim UoM Inflation Expectations, and the Fed Chair Yellen Speechaks. So there is a big probability the USD/JPY will move with low volatility during the Asian session, but with low to medium volatility during the US session.

TODAY TECHNICAL LEVELS:

Resistance. 3: 106.87.

Resistance. 2: 106.66.

Resistance. 1: 106.45.

Support. 1: 106.19.

Support. 2: 105.98.

Support. 3: 105.77.

Disclaimer: Trading Forex (foreign exchange) on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.


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GBP/USD intraday technical levels and trading recommendations for October 16, 2014

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Overview:


On July 15, an extensive bearish impulse was initiated. Since then, the GBP/USD pair has been moving downwards below the depicted downtrend line.


Many bearish impulses were previously initiated around 1.7180, 1.6630 and 1.6400 where the downtrend line came to meet the pair then.


The price zone of 1.6140 - 1.6100 constituted a weekly support that paused the bearish movement on September 9 despite the bears quickly pushed below the price level of 1.6060.


Retracement towards the price zone of 1.6400 took place as expected where a new bearish impulse was applied as anticipated.


As suggested, price level of 1.5890 provided evident bullish recovery. A bullish engulfing daily candlestick emerged.


Today, the bulls are pushing towards the downtrend line (price zone of 1.6090-1.6120) where another bearish swing is anticipated to be initiated.


On the other hand, bullish breakout will liberate a strong bullish swing towards 1.6260 initially.


Trading recommendations:


A SELL entry can be taken off 1.6120 - 1.6140. Stop Loss should be set as daily closure above 1.6200.


Initial target is located at 1.5890 where further price action should be watched.


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Intraday technical levels and trading recommendations on GBP/USD for October 16, 2014

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Note the depicted Shooting Star daily candlestick that occurred previously around 61.8% Fibonacci level. Such significant bearish pressure offered SELL positions a few days later at retesting.


Note that the bullish rejection was initiated when the market pushed below 1.6100 and 1.6060 on September 9. However, another bearish leg was expressed below 1.6060.


On the other hand, the price zone of 1.6100-1.6140 remains a prominent SUPPLY zone where considerable bearish pressure was applied on the pair on Thursday resulting in formation of an Inverted Hammer daily candlestick followed by a long bearish engulfing daily candlestick of Tuesday.


Yesterday, bullish recovery was expressed off 1.5880. Bullish engulfing daily candlestick is depicted on the chart. Bullish targets are located at price zone of 1.6130-1.6180 where price action should be watched for price action.


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4H chart reveals long period of downside movement roughly maintained within the limits of the depicted channel.


A SELL entry was suggested around the price level of 1.6140 last Thursday. The resulting bearish swing managed to push below 1.5950 ( weekly DEMAND level ).


Today, the bulls are pushing again towards the upper limit of the channel as well as previous broken bottom ( probably now acting as resistance ). Another SELL entry is suggested around 1.6140-1.6180. Stop Loss should be located above 1.6200.


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Intraday technical levels and trading recommendations on EUR/USD for October 16, 2014

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The recent bearish slide below 1.2870 invalidated the previous attempt of bullish reversal. Thus, bearish decline towards 1.2680 and 1.2570 took place shortly after.


Last week, the EUR/USD pair looked oversold and was trading beyond the lower limit of the channel before bullish momentum could get it back inside the channel. That's why, price action around 1.2560 was important to determine the next destination.


Bullish recovery was expressed off 1.2500 and 1.2600 to push towards 1.2700 and 1.2830.


The origin of the bullish engulfing pattern (around 1.2600) provided a good BUY position as suggested in previous articles. It's running in profits now.


The upper limit of the movement channel (1.2880-1.2900) is being approached. Bearish pressure should be anticipated to be applied.


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The medium-term bearish trend remains intact as long as the bears keep defending the price zone around 1.2870-1.2900 (the recent consolidation zone).


A short-term bullish Head and Shoulders pattern was established on the 4H chart as anticipated. 4H fixation above 1.2700 confirmed the reversal and allowed the bulls to reach 1.2850.


A good BUY position was suggested around the origin of the bullish Head and Shoulders pattern. The final target is being approached today around 1.2900.


Recommendation :


Price action should be watched around 1.2870-1.2900 ( upper limit of the channel and previous broken demand level ) for another long-term SELL position.


Stop loss for this short position should be located above 1.2965.


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