GBP / USD. Good news from Junker and no bad news from the Bank of England

The pound-dollar pair reached the middle of the 25th figure - the last time the price was at this level a few months ago, namely in July, in the wake of yet another optimism regarding Brexit's prospects. Today's pair growth is also associated with the "divorce process". Despite the continuing uncertainty, encouraging signals are coming to the market that reduce the risk of a "tough" scenario.

It is necessary to immediately warn that the parties have not yet reached a clear breakthrough in the negotiations: the growth of the British currency is based only on the comments of top officials and politicians. Over the past three years, traders of GBP/USD have repeatedly passed through these stages of the negotiation process. This cycle is well known to investors - at first, London and Brussels declare mutual intransigence, followed by a period of "thaw" when the parties hint at a compromise. But in the end, the situation comes to a standstill once again, and market participants are forced again to observe this vicious circle, trading in conditions of increased uncertainty.

analytics5d846b9a7819f.jpg

Given the background to this issue, one should not be surprised at the temporary optimism of traders. The parties are talking about compromising again, and this fact pushes the pair up to local maximums. The immediate reason for optimism was the comments of the head of the European Commission, Jean-Claude Juncker. Without going into details, he said that a long-suffering deal could still be concluded before the "X-hour," that is, until October 31. Moreover, on Wednesday, Junker took a diametrically opposite position - he spoke with the same confidence that the risk of "hard" Brexit is increasing every day, since Britain does not provide Brussels with alternative options for the back-stop mechanism.

However, there are indeed certain shifts in the negotiation process. Just yesterday, the British Commission finally received written proposals from the British side on the Brexit issue. As the EC spokeswoman clarified, on the basis of these documents, the negotiations will resume again in the coming days, and whether Juncker's optimism is connected with this fact or not is unknown. Nevertheless, the presence of some progress on this issue provides strong enough support for the GBP/USD pair. The pound is very sensitive to the Brexit topic, and any more or less reliable news regarding its prospects provokes significant volatility. You can imagine the price fluctuations of the pair at the conclusion of the transaction, if only cautious assumptions of the European politician allowed the pound to grow by more than 100 points.

Generally, the GBP/USD pair has been showing an upward movement (albeit with deep downward pullbacks) since the beginning of September - that is, from the moment that the deputies of the House of Commons obliged the prime minister to agree on the next Brexit postponement, if the government fails to conclude a deal that the parliamentarians approve. And although experts are still discussing Johnson's possible maneuvers (appeal in court, direct disobedience to the law, interpretation in their favor, etc.), these scenarios still seem unlikely, even though they cannot be completely excluded, given the odiousness of the current head of the cabinet.

The pound received some support yesterday following the meeting of the Bank of England. In this case, traders were guided by the thesis: "absence of bad news = good news". Despite the general suspicion of the regulator, the Bank of England voiced a rather restrained position - the market clearly expected a more "dovish" mood, especially after crushing data on inflation growth in August. In addition, market participants drew attention to the distribution of votes for maintaining the rate - "9-0-0". This suggests that all members of the Committee were in favor of maintaining the rate, and none of them voted for its reduction. This fact, which under normal conditions would have been simply ignored by traders, supported the British currency.

In general, the September meeting of the Bank of England turned out to be quite faceless, although the regulator's members focused on the risks associated with a slowdown in inflation this time. According to published forecasts of the Central Bank, inflation will remain below the target two percent level at least until the end of this year. At the same time, the Central Bank emphasized that if the uncertainty in the Brexit issue continues, inflation will slow down significantly. The regulator also slightly reduced its forecast for GDP growth in the third quarter to 0.2% (from the previous value of 0.3%). But overall, according to the Bank of England, the British economy is still growing, despite the slowdown.

analytics5d846b7ed1f99.jpg

Summarizing the previous meeting of the English regulator, two more points should be highlighted. First, the Bank of England emphasized that the reaction to the "hard" Brexit will not be automatic - relatively speaking, when the country leaves the transaction on October 31, at the November meeting, the regulator will not headlong to lower the rate. At the moment, all forecasts of the Central Bank are based on the assumption that Brexit will take place according to the "soft" scenario. In this case, according to the Central Bank, the regulator will be able to "gradually increase the interest rate."

In other words, it all comes down to Brexit - both the prospects for the pound and the prospects for monetary policy. In the meantime, the resistance level for the GBP/USD pair is around 1.2600 (the upper line of the BB indicator on the daily chart). The next (strongest) level is much higher - at around 1.3000 (the lower border of the Kumo cloud, which coincides with the upper line of the BB indicator on the weekly chart). At the moment, this target seems unattainable, but if London and Brussels continue to demonstrate their willingness to conclude a deal, the pound will quickly rise to the indicated levels. Otherwise, the pair will return to the framework of the 23rd figure.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

EUR/USD: plan for the European session on September 20. The Federal Reserve Bank of New York continues to buy billions of

To open long positions on EURUSD you need:

Yesterday it became known that the Federal Reserve Bank of New York conducted another buyback of debts in the amount of $ 75 billion, thereby providing banks with liquidity support. This time, sellers of the US dollar left this fact unattended, while on Tuesday this news led to a fall in the US dollar. Nothing has changed at all from a technical point of view. Buyers still need to break above the resistance of 1.1074, which will lead to the euro's continued growth to the area of a high of 1.1110, as well as to update a larger resistance level at 1.1151, where I recommend taking profits. If the pressure on the euro returns in the morning, then it is best to consider new purchases after updating support at 1.1031, with the condition of the next formation of a false breakdown there, or a rebound from a larger low in the region of 1.0992.

To open short positions on EURUSD you need:

Traders ignored the data on the state of the US economy yesterday in the afternoon, as well as a report on the negative growth of the current account balance of the US balance of payments, which maintained equilibrium in the market. Sellers will continue to wait for a breakout of support at 1.1031, which will increase the pressure on the pair and will lead to a further decrease to the area of a larger low 1.0992 and 1.0955, where I recommend taking profits. In case the pair grows in the first half of the day to the resistance area of 1.1074, one can look at short positions only on a false breakdown. You can sell EUR/USD immediately for a rebound from last week's high in the region of 1.1110. Given that important fundamental statistics are not expected today, volatility may remain quite low.

Signals of indicators:

Moving averages

Trade is conducted in the region of 30 and 50 moving averages, which indicates market uncertainty.

Bollinger bands

A break of the lower boundary of the indicator at 1.1040 will increase pressure on the euro, while the upper boundary at 1.1074 will limit the upward potential in the morning.

analytics5d846c7ddbac4.png

Description of indicators

  • MA (moving average) 50 days - yellow
  • MA (moving average) 30 days - green
  • MACD: Fast EMA 12, Slow EMA 26, SMA 9
  • Bollinger Bands 20
The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Overview of GBP/USD on September 20th. Forecast according to the "Regression Channels". The British pound "tears and thrashes"

4-hour timeframe

analytics5d845d90ccede.png

Technical data:

The upper channel of linear regression: direction – down.

The lower channel of linear regression: direction – up.

The moving average (20; smoothed) – up.

CCI: 188.1252

In recent days and weeks, it seems that there are no problems in the European Union except the British Brexit. And Boris Johnson's duties include only the daily distribution of interviews regarding Brexit standing on a "dead center". Yesterday, European Commission President Jean-Claude Juncker said that the parties can still agree on Brexit. Otherwise, "disaster awaits us," Juncker said. He once again warned London that it is waiting for devastating consequences in the case of a "hard" scenario Brexit, also saying that the European Union is ready for such an option. And now, dear traders, just think, how many times have you heard such statements in recent months? What is the point in them if the Brexit process cannot be completed for three years? If he openly stands still last year? If the UK is mired in a political crisis, and Boris Johnson cannot even establish relations with deputies and get the support of Parliament? Moreover, he continues to openly fight with parliamentarians, not realizing that 450 people are still stronger than one Prime Minister. Five defeats in key issues the 2-month parliamentary vote eloquently indicate who can win in the long run.

Most surprisingly, the pound continues to strengthen against the US currency. It continues to grow despite the failed reports on inflation and retail sales for August. Although the Bank of England has not changed monetary policy. Although the optimistic news on Brexit in recent days, in fact, no. If at first, the pound began to grow on the increase in the probability of transferring Brexit to 2020, now there are few new growth factors for the British currency. However, after each "black" band comes "white". The pound has been declining against the US currency for a very long time, often purely by inertia, so the pound/dollar currency pair has accumulated a strong oversold. It can be worked out now both by private traders, and major players.

There are no macroeconomic reports scheduled for the last trading day of the week in the UK. However, unlike the EUR/USD pair, this does not mean that today will be boring and uninteresting. As you can see, in the Asian trading session and at the beginning of the European, the pound shows strong growth, which can continue throughout Friday, September 20. The technical picture indicates an upward trend and no correction. The lower channel of the linear regression is pushed up, as is the moving average line. A reversal upward of the senior channel will mean a change in the direction of the global trend.

Nearest support levels:

S1 – 1.2512

S2 – 1.2451

S3 – 1.2390

Nearest resistance levels:

R1 – 1.2573

R2 – 1.2634

R3 – 1.2695

Trading recommendations:

The GBP/USD pair continues to move upwards. Thus, traders are now encouraged to continue buying sterling with targets of 1.2573 and 1.2634, the first of which has already been worked out. It is recommended to sell the pound not before fixing the pair below the moving average.

In addition to the technical picture, fundamental data and the time of their release should also be taken into account.

Explanation of illustrations:

The upper linear regression channel – the blue line of the unidirectional movement.

The lower linear regression channel – the purple line of the unidirectional movement.

CCI – the blue line in the indicator regression window.

The moving average (20; smoothed) – the blue line on the price chart.

Support and resistance – red horizontal lines.

Heiken Ashi – an indicator that colors bars in blue or purple.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Overview of EUR/USD on September 20th. Forecast according to the "Regression Channels". The ECB and fed meetings are over.

4-hour timeframe

analytics5d845856a254d.png

Technical data:

The upper channel of linear regression: direction – down.

The lower channel of linear regression: direction – down.

The moving average (20; smoothed) – sideways.

CCI: 20.7650

Here comes the last trading day of the week, which was supposed to be fantastic for the EUR/USD pair, and instead we observe either high volatility or a low volatility flat. The trading week ended with a fall in traders' activity to almost zero. On Friday, September 20, not a single important macroeconomic publication is planned, so there will be no fundamental background for the euro/dollar pair today. Thus, we do not expect strong movements from the currency pair today, we do not expect that a trend movement will suddenly begin. Most likely, the week will end as calmly as it passed.

Today, we can once again ask ourselves, what awaits the pair in the coming weeks? Still, at the moment, the meetings of both central banks are over and it is possible to draw certain conclusions on their monetary policy, as well as on the attitude of traders to the adopted changes. In short, the ECB eased the already "ultra-soft" monetary policy, because there was simply no other way, and the Fed lowered its key rate when it was not particularly necessary, from macroeconomic statistics. What does that say? The fact that the US dollar in confrontation with the euro remains "on horseback" in the medium term. The European Central Bank will also launch a quantitative easing program in November for 30 billion euros per month. Thus, despite the "double bottom" pattern, which we have already discussed several times, despite the seemingly favorable time for the strengthening of the euro, the prospects for this currency, from our point of view, remain very vague. If a trade war begins, as many experts expect, in October-November, then a single European one will not be envied at all, since it is already clear who will benefit from the trade conflict. More precisely: who will suffer less damage from the trade conflict.

What about the reaction of traders to two meetings of regulators? At the meeting, the ECB reacted first with the stormy purchases of the dollar, then with the same stormy euros, after which everything calmed down. At the Fed meeting – restrained purchases of the dollar, which the next day was completely leveled. As a result, the pair continues to remain near its two-year lows, with the "double bottom" pattern, which is not implemented, since the euro/dollar pair is not growing, but it is not canceled since bears are not able to update the lows once again. And in our experience, we can say that such a state can last for several days, and maybe even weeks.

From a technical point of view, we have a formally upward trend, since the price is above the moving average, but in fact, we have a flat at our disposal. Over the past few days, the pair changed direction and overcame the moving average 6 times.

Nearest support levels:

S1 – 1.1047

S2 – 1.1017

S3 – 1.0986

Nearest resistance levels:

R1 – 1.1078

R2 – 1.1108

R3 – 1.1139

Trading recommendations:

The euro/dollar pair has fixed back above the moving average line, however, we now recommend waiting for the completion of the flat and only then resume trading.

In addition to the technical picture, fundamental data and the time of their release should also be taken into account.

Explanation of illustrations:

The upper linear regression channel – the blue line of the unidirectional movement.

The lower linear regression channel – the purple line of the unidirectional movement.

CCI – the blue line in the indicator window.

The moving average (20; smoothed) – the blue line on the price chart.

Support and resistance – red horizontal lines.

Heiken Ashi – an indicator that colors bars in blue or purple.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Elliott wave analysis of GBP/JPY for September 20 - 2019

analytics5d844e7e367cc.png

GBP/JPY saw a low at 134.38 well above 133.86 which is the key-levels indicating a more substantial correction in red wave c of red wave ii finally is developing towards 130.78.

As long as short-term key-support at 133.86 is able to protect the downside, we must allow for a re-test of the peak at 135.66. However, we think the upside should be limited from here.

A break below 133.86 will call for a decline to at least 132.00 and ideally closer to 130.78 to complete red wave ii.

R3: 136.09

R2: 135.83

R1: 135.66

Pivot: 135.13

S1: 134.70

S2: 134.38

S3: 133.86

Trading recommendation:

We are looking for a GBP-buying opportunity near 131.15

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Elliott wave analysis of EUR/JPY for September 20 - 2019

analytics5d844ce5c107d.png

EUR/JPY trading was contained in a narrow range yesterday. The low of the range was seen at 118.93, while the top came in at 119.57. WE need a clear break above 119.82 to confirm that red wave ii is complete and red wave iii higher to at least 121.92 is developing.

That said, it also means that red wave ii still could be developing and in this case, we should see more downside pressure towards support in the 118.41 - 118.66 area to complete red wave ii and set the stage for the next impulsive rally in red wave iii.

R3: 120.30

R2: 120.00

R1: 119.80

Pivot: 119.40

S1: 119.00

S2: 118.68

S3: 118.41

Trading recommendation:

We are long EUR from 118.25 with our stop placed at 117.50

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Trading plan for EURUSD for September 20, 2019

analytics5d84405acd5bd.jpg

Technical outlook:

EURUSD is likely to push towards 1.1145 and 1.1185, and a break above 1.1110 would confirm this direction. Looking at the wave structure, Wave (3) seems to be unfolding since 1.0927 lows in place early last week. Please note that sub-waves 1 and 2 of (3) are in place at 1.1110 and 1.0990 respectively and EURUSD should remain above wave 2 termination at 1.0990. Interim resistance is seen at 1.1110 while support at 1.0990 respectively. A push through 1.1075 should accelerate the proposed rally. It is difficult to confirm right now but potential remains that a meaningful low is in place for EURUSD at 1.0925. Trading point of view, longs are favored until prices remain above 1.0990 and 1.0925.

Trading plan:

Remain long, risk below 1.0990 or 1.0925, target 1.1145 and 1.1183 at least.

Good luck!

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Technical analysis: Important Intraday Levels For EUR/USD, September 20, 2019

analytics5d843b142984c.jpg

When the European market opens, some economic data will be released such as Consumer Confidence and German PPI m/m. The US will not publish any economic data today, so amid the reports, the EUR/USD pair will move with low to medium volatility during this day. TODAY'S TECHNICAL LEVELS: Breakout BUY Level: 1.1097. Strong Resistance: 1.1091. Original Resistance: 1.1080. Inner Sell Area: 1.1069. Target Inner Area: 1.1044. Inner Buy Area: 1.1019. Original Support: 1.1008. Strong Support: 1.10997. Breakout SELL Level: 1.0991. (Disclaimer)The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Technical analysis: Important Intraday Levels for USD/JPY, September 20, 2019

analytics5d843a87b7882.jpg

In Asia, Japan will release the National Core CPI y/y, but the US will not publish any economic data today. So there is a probability the USD/JPY pair will move with low to medium volatility during this day. TODAY'S TECHNICAL LEVELS: Resistance. 3: 108.50. Resistance. 2: 108.29. Resistance. 1: 108.08. Support. 1: 107.81. Support. 2: 107.60. Support. 3: 107.39. (Disclaimer)The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Technical analysis of ETH/USD for 20/09/2019

Crypto Industry News:

The Turkish government announced plans to create a national Blockchain infrastructure to use DLT technology in public administration. The Ministry of Industry and Technology presented its vision during the Strategy 2023 presentation in Ankara.

Strategy 2023 highlights Blockchain and DLT as priorities for the coming year. The document refers to a survey carried out as part of the Startup Genome, which marks Blockchain as one of the fastest-growing technological trends, with a 101.5% increase in initial funds worldwide.

Strategy 2023 says that a new open-source platform for Blockchain technology will be created in Turkey. This initiative will examine various uses, such as land registration, academic certificates, and customs, to identify potential uses in the public sector.

The Ministry of Industry and Technology is also planning to cooperate with Turkish regulatory bodies to create a regulatory sandbox for Blockchain applications.

Technical Market Overview:

The ETH/USD pair has hit the level of 223.24 which is now a top for the wave 3 and then reversed in order to start the corrective wave 4. Moreover, the price has hit the technical resistance zone located between the levels of $221.50 - $225.12. The momentum is still increasing as well, so the rally might continue even higher after the wave 4 is completed, just as Elliott Wave theory scenario proposed last week The nearest technical support is seen at the level of $215.73 (hit already) and then at $186.70.

Weekly Pivot Points:

WR3 - $212.96

WR2 - $200.24

WR1 - $196.12

Weekly Pivot - $184.92

WS1 - $179.10

WS2 - $168.22

WS3 - $163.07

Trading Recommendations:

The best strategy in the current market conditions is to trade with the larger timeframe trend, which is still up. All the shorter timeframe moves are being treated as a correction inside of the uptrend. The current cycle is wave 2 of the lower wave degree and it might have been completed, so the uptrend should resume soon. The global investors are waiting for a breakout above the level of $202.59 and $238.68 to confirm the resumption of the uptrend.

analytics5d8458aa7ee52.jpg

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Control zones USDCAD 09/20/19

The downward movement is a correction, the purpose of which can be considered WCZ 1/2 0.9861-0.9849. Achieving this zone will allow you to consolidate part of the profit, and transfer the rest of the sales to breakeven in case the decline continues and there is a change in the medium-term priority.

analytics5d845f48b42ee.png

Changing the daily priority can be the starting point for a new downward momentum. To do this, close the current week's trade below WCZ 1/2.

An alternative growth model is less likely due to the formation of absorption at yesterday's European session, however, it must be considered, since the close of trading below WCZ 1/4 did not happen yesterday. In case growth resumes, the first goal will be a weekly high.

analytics5d845f5f1e7f0.png

Daily CZ - daily control zone. The area formed by important data from the futures market, which change several times a year.

Weekly CZ - weekly control zone. The zone formed by important marks of the futures market, which change several times a year.

Monthly CZ - monthly control zone. The zone, which is a reflection of the average volatility over the past year.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Technical analysis of BTC/USD for 20/09/2019

Crypto Industry News:

Jay Clayton, chairman of the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), said Bitcoin needs stronger regulation for Bitcoin to be traded on a large stock exchange.

According to financial media reports, Clayton spoke at the Delivering Alpha conference, where he also warned investors to be careful that Bitcoin would be regulated and traded on the large stock exchange.

"If [investors] think that the same rigor as when setting the price level exists, as on the Nasdaq or NYSE, they are very wrong. We need to get to a place where we can be sure that trading is better regulated," he said.

The author of the publication notes that although Bitcoin Future contracts on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange are indeed traded on a large stock exchange, Bitcoin is not in itself. According to the article, attempts to introduce Bitcoin into the mainstream include attempts to launch the ETF, which until now have been rejected by regulators due to concerns about variability and fraud in the industry.

Technical Market Overview:

The BTC/USD pair bounced from the level of $9,535 and moved higher towards the technical resistance located at the level of $10,407. The last move down might be the last subwave of the corrective cycle in the wave (2, so the (a) (b) (c) corrective pattern might have been terminated already. In a case of a trend resumption, the next target for bulls is seen at the level of $10,407 and it needs to be violated in impulsive fashion in order to continue the up move, otherwise, the whole Elliott Wave scenario will be changed and updated.

Weekly Pivot Points:

WR3 - $11,232

WR2 - $10,847

WR1 - $10,552

Weekly Pivot - $10,174

WS1 - $9,851

WS2 - $9,477

WS3 - $9,160

Trading Recommendations:

The best strategy in the current market conditions is to trade with the larger timeframe trend, which is still up. All the shorter timeframe moves are being treated as a correction inside of the uptrend. The wave 2 corrective cycles are about to be completed and the market might be ready for another impulsive wave up of a higher degree. Any violation of the level of $9,231 invalidates the bullish impulsive scenario.

analytics5d845762d6ae2.jpg

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Technical analysis of GBP/USD for 20/09/2019

Technical Market Overview:

The GBP/USD has made another marginal higher high at the level of 1.2561 as the rally continues. Please keep an eye on how this key level will be played by the market participants, because of the overbought conditions. The momentum remains strong and positive, so the bulls can still make pressure on higher price levels. Nevertheless, there is a clear and visible negative divergence between the price and momentum indicator, so the correction might occur any time soon. The nearest technical support is seen at the level of 1.2504 and if violated, the next one is located at 1.2381.

Weekly Pivot Points:

WR3 - 1.2885

WR2 - 1.268

WR1 - 1.2601

Weekly Pivot - 1.2422

WS1 - 1.2331

WS2 - 1.2133

WS3 - 1.2067

Trading Recommendations:

The best strategy for current market conditions is to trade with the larger timeframe trend, which is down. All upward moves will be treated as local corrections in the downtrend. In order to reverse the trend from down to up, the key level for bulls is seen at 1.2505 and it must be clearly violated. As long as the price is trading below this level, the downtrend continues towards the level of 1.2000 and below.

analytics5d845617044f5.jpg

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

GBP/USD testing resistance, potential for further upside!

analytics5d845562b52e8.jpg

GBPUSD is testing our intermediate resistance at 1.25563 where a break above this level could see price rise further to test our first resistance.

Entry: 1.25563

Why it's good : 61.8% fibonacci extension

Stop Loss : 1.24401

Why it's good : 38.2% Fibonacci retracement, horizontal swing low support

Take Profit : 1.27074

Why it's good: 100% Fibonacci extension, horizontal swing high resistance, 50% fibonacci retracement

analytics5d84554484900.png

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Technical analysis of EUR/USD for 20/09/2019

Technical Market Overview:

The EUR/USD pair has been consolidating in a narrow range between the levels of 1.1018 - 1.1075 for some time and currently the consolidation starts to resemble the Triangle pattern. In order to continue the move up, the bulls must break through the technical resistance at the level of 1.1065 - 1.1075 and head towards the level of 1.1091 again. Otherwise, the bounce from the level of 1.0997 will be treated only as a local bounce inside of the corrective cycle of a lesser degree that will be used by bears to open more sell orders with a better price. The nearest technical support is located at the level of 1.0978.

Weekly Pivot Points:

WR3 - 1.1336

WR2 - 1.1226

WR1 - 1.1152

Weekly Pivot - 1.1040

WS1 - 1.0980

WS2 - 1.0859

WS3 - 1.0789

Trading Recommendations:

The best strategy for current market conditions is to trade with the larger timeframe trend, which is down. All upward moves will be treated as local corrections in the downtrend. The downtrend is valid as long as it is terminated or the level of 1.1445 clearly violated. There is an Ending Diagonal price pattern visible on the larget timeframes that indicate a possible downtrend termination soon. The key short-term levels are technical support at the level of 1.0926 and the technical resistance at the level of 1.1267.

analytics5d8455564e10b.jpg

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

USD/CAD bounce in progress

USDCAD bounce in grogress above support

Entry: 1.32640

Why it's good : 23.6% Fibonacci retracement

Take Profit : 1.33250

Why it's good: 100% Fibonacci extension and Horizontal swing high

Stop Loss: 1.3230

analytics5d8454d5bbe82.png

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

USD/JPY approaching intermediate support, potential to rise further!

analytics5d84546021047.jpg

USDJPY is approaching intermediate support at 107.88 and could bounce from there

Entry :107.88

horizontal swing low support

61.8% Fibonacci retracement

Take Profit : 108.75

Why it's good : 61.8% Fibonacci extension

100%Fibonacci extension

analytics5d84547900d37.png

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Long-term growth outlook for EUR/AUD

EUR/AUD

The starting point of the growing EUR/AUD trend is the distant July 2012, from the low of which the Fibonacci grid on the chart of the monthly scale accurately and correctly "laid down".

analytics5d8448635080d.png

On the weekly chart, the price overcame the strong resistance formed by the Fibonacci level of 110.0% and the MACD indicator line. The signal line of the Marlin oscillator has moved into a trend growth zone. The first target of growth is the Fibonacci reaction level of 123.6% at the price of 1.6830. Consolidation above the level opens the second target of 1.7450 - the Fibonacci level of 138.2%, and this second goal coincides with the high of August 2007.

The completion of the trend is possible near the Fibonacci level of 161.8%, in the price area of 1.8440, from it there were reversals in April 2001, in October 2002, and later attempts to overcome it until mid-2003 were unsuccessful.

analytics5d84487947522.png

On the daily chart, the price is attacking the MACD line, the Marlin oscillator is also breaking through the boundary with the growth trend zone.

analytics5d844a7e77601.png

On the H4 chart, the price consolidated above the Fibonacci level of 100.0%, the output of yesterday's high will be a signal to open a long position.

analytics5d844a931cc92.png

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Forecast for EUR/USD on September 20, 2019

EUR/USD

On Thursday, the euro once again marked the upper shadow on the daily chart with a Fibonacci level of 123.6%, which kept the technical indicators in an upward position. On the daily chart, this has resulted in a reversal of the signal line of the Marlin oscillator from the boundary with the territory of the bears on the four-hour chart - the transition of the same oscillator to the growth zone and price retention above the indicator lines of balance and MACD.

analytics5d844e532e500.png

Overcoming yesterday's high (which automatically leads to a move above the Fibonacci level of 123.6%) may trigger further growth to the MACD line at daily 1.1122.

Consolidating the price below the MACD line at H4, below the signal level of 1.1030, opens the short-term target of 1.0987 - the Fibonacci level of 138.2%. Overcoming the latter opens the target of 1.0926.

analytics5d844e69302ab.png

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Forecast for GBP/USD on September 20, 2019

GBP/USD

Yesterday, the British pound fulfilled the target formed by the Fibonacci level of 161.8% and the line of the price channel on the daily chart. This is due to the statement by the head of the European Commission Jean Claude Juncker on the likelihood of concluding an agreement on Brexit by October 31, with some changes to the terms of the agreement. However, the news is only duplicate, it was known even earlier, but was lost in the hype of Boris Johnson and the new aggravation in the Middle East.

analytics5d844c75f2cdd.png

On the four-hour chart, the Marlin oscillator formed a triple divergence, this is a sign of a price reversal downwards. Yet divergence can be broken down by strong fundamental factors. A technical sign of this will be a price consolidation above yesterday's high, and then the target of 1.2668 as the Fibonacci level of 138.2% will become relevant.

analytics5d844c8b123e3.png

Our main scenario is a price reversal, but to form a signal, the price will have to go down by more than 150 points (which is not surprising due to the pound's extreme growth in the last two weeks), below the signal level of 1.2381, overcoming which opens the target of 1.2230 – Fibonacci level of 223.6% on the daily chart.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

#USDX vs EUR / USD vs GBP / USD vs USD / JPY. Comprehensive analysis of movement options from September 20, 2019 APLs &

Let us consider, in a comprehensive manner, how the development of the movement of currency instruments #USDX, EUR / USD, GBP / USD and USD / JPY will begin from September 20, 2019

Minuette (H4 time frame)

____________________

US dollar Index

Further development of the movement of the dollar index #USDX from September 20, 2019 will be determined by the direction of the breakdown of the range :

  • resistance level of 98.35 (lower boundary ISL61.8 of the equilibrium zone of the Minuette operational scale forks);
  • support level of 98.15 (reaction line RL261.8 of the Minuette operational scale fork).

The breakdown of the reaction line RL261.8 Minuette (support level of 98.15) will determine the continued development of the downward movement of the dollar index to targets - a local minimum of 97.86 - the end line FSL Minuette (97.70) - the upper boundary of the ISL38.2 (97.55) equilibrium zone of the Minuette operational scale fork.

In the event of a breakdown of ISL61.8 Minuette (resistance level of 98.35), it will be possible to develop the #USDX movement within the equilibrium zone (98.35 - 98.55 - 98.75) of the Minuette operational scale forks and 1/2 Median Line channel (98.50 - 98.70 - 98.95) of the Minuette operational scale forks with the prospect of updating maximums (99.10 - 99.37).

The details of the #USDX movement are presented in the animated chart.

analytics5d83a7a6d8882.jpg

____________________

Euro vs US dollar

The development of the movement of the single European currency EUR / USD from September 20, 2019 will also be determined by the direction of the breakdown of the range :

  • resistance level of 1.1090 warning line UWL38.2 equilibrium zone Minuette operational scale fork;
  • support level of 1.1060 upper boundary of the 1/2 Median Line Minuette channel.

The breakdown of the warning line UWL38.2 Minuette (resistance level of 1.1125) - option for the development of the upward movement of EUR / USD to targets - local maximum1.1110 - control line UTL (1.1130) of the Minuette operational scale fork - equilibrium zone (1.1145 - 1.1200 - 1.1250) of the Minuette operational scale fork.

The breakdown of the support level of 1.1060 will determine the development of the movement of the single European currency within the 1/2 Median Line channels of the Minuette operating scales (1.1060 - 1.1040 - 1.1017) and Minuette (1.1017 - 1.0990 - 1.0960).

The details of the EUR / USD movement options are shown in the animated chart.

analytics5d83a7c172131.jpg

____________________

Great Britain Pound vs US Dollar

The development of Her Majesty's GBP / USD currency movement from September 20, 2019 will be limited to the equilibrium zone (1.2430 -1 1.2580 - 1.2730) of the Minuette operational scale fork, taking into account the working out of the Minuette scale operational fork - the layout of this development is presented in the chart.

If the upper boundary of ISL61.8 (resistance level of 1.2730) of the equilibrium zone of the Minuette operational scale fork is broken, then we can continue to the warning lines UWL100.0 (1.2770) and UWL161.8 (1.2950) Minuette operating scale fork.

On the contrary, if a breakdown of the lower boundary of ISL38.2 (support level of 1.2430) of the equilibrium zone of the Minuette operational scale fork is seen as more probable, in which case the downward movement of Her Majesty's currency can continue to the boundaries of the 1/2 Median Line channel of the Minuette operational scales (1.2400 - 1.2360 - 1.2310) and Minuette (1.2330 - 1.2245 - 1.2155).

The details of the GBP / USD movement can be seen in the chart.

analytics5d83a800949dc.jpg

____________________

US dollar vs Japanese yen

The development of the USD / JPY currency movement of the country of the rising sun from September 20, 2019 will be due to the development and direction of the breakdown of the boundaries of the 1/2 Median Line channel (108.20 - 108.00 - 107.85) of the Minuette operational scale (see the details on the chart).

The breakdown of the lower boundary of the 1/2 Median Line Minuette channel (support level of 107.85) is an option for the USD / JPY to reach the boundaries of the equilibrium zones of the Minuette operational scales fork (107.75 - 107.50 - 107.25) and Minuette (107.60 - 107.00 - 106.40).

In case of breakdown of the upper boundary of the 1/2 Median Line channel Minuette (resistance level of 108.20) will make it relevant to resume the upward movement of the currency of the "country of the rising sun" to the targets - the initial SSL line (108.60) of the Minuette operational scale fork - the control line UTL Minuette (108.70) - maximum 109.33.

We look at the details of the USD / JPY movement in the chart.

analytics5d83a8267d174.jpg

____________________

The review is made without taking into account the news background. Thus, the opening of trading sessions of the main financial centers does not serve as a guide to action (placing orders "sell" or "buy").

The formula for calculating the dollar index :

USDX = 50.14348112 * USDEUR0.576 * USDJPY0.136 * USDGBP0.119 * USDCAD0.091 * USDSEK0.042 * USDCHF0.036.

where the power coefficients correspond to the weights of the currencies in the basket:

Euro - 57.6% ;

Yen - 13.6% ;

Pound Sterling - 11.9% ;

Canadian dollar - 9.1%;

Swedish Krona - 4.2%;

Swiss franc - 3.6%.

The first coefficient in the formula leads the index to 100 at the start date of the countdown - March 1973, when the main currencies began to be freely quoted relative to each other.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Fractal analysis of the main currency pairs for September 20

Forecast for September 20:

Analytical review of currency pairs on the scale of H1:

analytics5d840de8259a0.png

For the euro / dollar pair, the key levels on the H1 scale are: 1.1227, 1.1188, 1.1135, 1.1114, 1.1019, 1.0987 and 1.0932. Here, we continue to monitor the ascending structure of September 12. The continuation of the movement to the top is expected after the breakdown of the level of 1.1080. In this case, the first goal is 1.1114. The passage at the price of the noise range 1.1114 - 1.1135 should be accompanied by a pronounced upward movement. Here, the goal is 1.1188. For the potential value for the top, we consider the level of 1.1227. Upon reaching this value, we expect a pullback to the bottom.

Short-term downward movement is expected in the range of 1.1019 - 1.0987. The breakdown of the latter value will lead to the development of a downward trend. In this case, the first potential target is 1.0932.

The main trend is the local structure for the top of September 12.

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 1.1080 Take profit: 1.1114

Buy 1.1135 Take profit: 1.1188

Sell: 1.1019 Take profit: 1.0990

Sell: 1.0985 Take profit: 1.0935

analytics5d840e0386ede.png

For the pound / dollar pair, the key levels on the H1 scale are: 1.2738, 1.2673, 1.2622, 1.2549, 1.2460, 1.2403, 1.2338 and 1.2281. Here, we continue to monitor the local ascendant structure from September 12. The continuation of the movement to the top is expected after the breakdown of the level of 1.2549. In this case, the target is 1.2622. Price consolidation is in the range of 1.2622 - 1.2673. For the potential value for the top, we consider the level of 1.2738. Upon reaching which, we expect a pullback to the bottom.

We expect consolidated movement in the range 1.2460 - 1.2403. The breakdown of the latter value will lead to an in-depth correction. Here, the target is 1.2338. This level is a key support for the top. Its passage at the price will lead to the development of a downward structure. In this case, the first goal is 1.2281.

The main trend is the local ascending structure of September 12.

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 1.2550 Take profit: 1.2620

Buy: 1.2674 Take profit: 1.2736

Sell: 1.2401 Take profit: 1.2340

Sell: 1.2336 Take profit: 1.2282

analytics5d840e1e13956.png

For the dollar / franc pair, the key levels on the H1 scale are: 1.0070, 1.0027, 1.0004, 0.9970, 0.9927 and 0.9904. Here, the price is close to the cancellation of the upward structure from September 13, which requires another breakdown of the level of 0.9904. Short-term downward movement, as well as consolidation is expected is in the range of 0.9927 - 0.9904. The continuation of the movement to the top is expected after the breakdown of the level of 0.9970. In this case, the target is 1.0004. Short-term upward movement, as well as consolidation is in the range of 1.0004 - 1.0027. For the potential value for the top, we consider the level of 1.0070. Upon reaching which, we expect a pullback to the bottom.

The main trend is the formation of potential for the top of September 13, the stage of deep correction.

Trading recommendations:

Buy : 0.9972 Take profit: 1.0004

Buy : 1.0006 Take profit: 1.0025

Sell: 0.9900 Take profit: 0.9855

analytics5d840e387d27f.png

For the dollar / yen pair, the key levels on the scale are : 109.58, 109.26, 108.75, 108.50, 108.03, 107.77, 107.32 and 107.12. Here, we are following the development of the ascending structure of September 3. At the moment, the price is in the correction zone. Short-term upward movement is expected in the range of 108.50 - 108.75. The breakdown of the last value will lead to a pronounced movement. Here, the target is 109.26. For the potential value for the top, we consider the level of 109.58. Upon reaching this value, we expect consolidation, as well as a pullback to the bottom.

Short-term downward movement is possibly in the range 108.03 - 107.77. The breakdown of the last value will lead to an in-depth correction. Here, the target is 107.32. The range of 107.32 - 107.12 is the key support for the top, before which, we expect the expressed initial conditions for the downward cycle to be formed.

Main trend: local upward structure from September 3.

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 108.50 Take profit: 108.72

Buy : 108.77 Take profit: 109.26

Sell: 108.03 Take profit: 107.80

Sell: 107.74 Take profit: 107.45

analytics5d840e55ac73e.png

For the Canadian dollar / US dollar pair, the key levels on the H1 scale are: 1.3379, 1.3343, 1.3326, 1.3297, 1.3260, 1.3235, 1.3198 and 1.3172. Here, we are following the development of the ascending structure of September 10. The continuation of the movement to the top is expected after the breakdown of the level of 1.3297. Here, the target is 1.3326. Price consolidation is in the range of 1.3326 - 1.3343. For the potential value for the top, we consider the level of 1.3379. Upon reaching this level, we expect a pullback to the bottom.

Short-term downward movement is possibly in the range of 1.3260 - 1.3235, The breakdown of the last value will lead to an in-depth correction. Here, the target is 1.3198, This level is a key support for the top. Its breakdown will lead to the development of a downward structure. In this case, the potential target is 1.3172.

The main trend is the ascending structure of September 10, the correction stage.

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 1.3299 Take profit: 1.3226

Buy : 1.3344 Take profit: 1.3378

Sell: 1.3260 Take profit: 1.3237

Sell: 1.3233 Take profit: 1.3200

analytics5d840e739c63a.png

For the Australian dollar / US dollar pair, the key levels on the H1 scale are : 0.6852, 0.6825, 0.6807, 0.6782, 0.6767, 0.6745, 0.6732 and 0.6705. Here, we are following the development of the downward cycle of September 13. The continuation of movement to the bottom is expected after the price passes the noise range 0.6782 - 0.6767. In this case, the target is 0.6745. Price consolidation is in the range of 0.6745 - 0.6732. For the potential value for the top, we consider the level of 0.6705. Upon reaching which, we expect a pullback to the top.

Short-term upward movement is possibly in the range of 0.6807 - 0.6825. The breakdown of the last value will lead to a long correction. Here, the potential target is 0.6852. This level is a key support for the downward structure.

The main trend is the downward cycle of September 13.

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 0.6808 Take profit: 0.6825

Buy: 0.6827 Take profit: 0.6850

Sell : 0.6767 Take profit : 0.6745

Sell: 0.6730 Take profit: 0.6705

analytics5d840e91c093c.png

For the euro / yen pair, the key levels on the H1 scale are: 121.95, 121.39, 120.36, 119.95, 118.99, 118.50 and 117.73. Here, we continue to monitor the ascending structure of September 12. Short-term upward movement is expected in the range of 119.95 - 120.36. The breakdown of the level of 120.36 should be accompanied by a pronounced upward movement. Here, the goal is 121.39. For the potential value for the top, we consider the level of 121.95. Upon reaching which, we expect a pullback to the bottom.

Short-term downward movement is possibly in the range 118.99 - 118.50. The breakdown of the latter value will lead to the cancellation of the upward structure from September 12. Here, the first potential target is 117.73.

The main trend is the local structure for the top of September 12.

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 119.95 Take profit: 120.34

Buy: 120.38 Take profit: 121.35

Sell: 118.99 Take profit: 118.53

Sell: 118.46 Take profit: 117.80

analytics5d840eb229268.png

For the pound / yen pair, the key levels on the H1 scale are : 137.21, 136.13, 135.37, 134.10, 133.39 and 132.23. Here, we are following the local ascending structure of September 12. Short-term upward movement is expected in the range of 135.37 - 136.13. The breakdown of the last value will lead to movement to a potential target - 137.21, when this level is reached, we expect a pullback to the bottom.

Short-term downward movement is possibly in the range of 134.10 - 133.39. The breakdown of the last value will lead to an in-depth correction. Here, the goal is 132.23. This level is a key support for the upward structure.

The main trend is the ascending structure of September 3 and the local ascending structure of September 12.

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 135.38 Take profit: 136.10

Buy: 136.15 Take profit: 137.20

Sell: 134.10 Take profit: 133.42

Sell: 133.35 Take profit: 132.30

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

The dollar is trying to unravel the Fed's plans

analytics5d84138484d3e.jpg

The central event of this week - the next meeting of the Federal Reserve - did not bring clarity. Analysts continue to wonder what to expect from the regulator in the future.

However, unlike US President Donald Trump, who called Fed Chairman Jerome Powell "a terrible communicator," financial markets seem to have clearly understood the hints of the latter. The Federal Reserve chief's statement that the central bank is ready to aggressively reduce the interest rate in the event of a deterioration in the well-being of the US economy, caused the S&P 500 to grow most rapidly over the past six weeks. Prior to that, the index dipped under the influence of the regulator's rate forecasts: 7 out of 17 FOMC members believe that it should be reduced by 25 basis points by the end of the year, 5 believe that it will remain unchanged, and 5 would like to see not one, but two acts of monetary expansion. Apparently, investors were frightened not by the easing of the Fed's monetary policy (of which I have been certain for a long time already), but by the fact that the rate on federal funds is likely to remain at 1.75% until the end of next year.

Of course, you can talk for a long time about what affected the split in the ranks of the FOMC (3 out of 10 Committee members voted against lowering the interest rate from 2.25% to 2%), but when so much uncertainty is observed on the market, pluralism of opinions is inevitable. Experts call the current situation as "Powell's puzzle": the Fed is forced to balance between strong macro statistics in the United States, which allowed it to increase the country's GDP for the current year from 2.1% to 2.2%, and international threats, including trade conflicts and Brexit.

The mixed reaction of the markets and the lack of a clear signal from the Fed about the weakening of monetary policy in 2019 caused another bout of anger from the head of the White House, Donald Trump.

"Jay Powell and the Federal Reserve Fail Again. No "guts", no sense, no vision! A terrible communicator!", D. Trump wrote on Twitter.

Although the Fed chairman prefers to ignore such attacks against him, this time he commented on the idea of negative interest rates called for by the US president. According to J. Powell, if the situation begins to deteriorate, then the central bank will revive QE rather than lower the federal funds rate below zero.

The day before, the greenback slightly strengthened across the entire spectrum following the results of the September FOMC meeting, but today it is gradually losing ground, since the Fed still does not have a consensus on further actions to adjust the monetary rate.

The market is not completely sure how the US central bank will behave. Most analysts expect the regulator to further trim the rate on federal funds this year, but only one reduction is laid.

Probably, investors will wait for some new signals. In recent days, the trade war between the US and China has left the information field. If another escalation of the conflict occurs, the market may perceive this as a signal for more active easing of the monetary policy of the Federal Reserve.

"It is obvious that the Fed does not have a consensus on what to do next: on the one hand, D. Trump presses, blaming the central bank leadership for incompetence and demanding an urgent interest rate cut to zero or lower, on the other, there are no formal reasons for this," he said ING chief economist James Niley.

Valentin Marinov, Head of Currency Research at Credit Agricole, calls the FOMC decision to trim rates as "hawkish" cuts, believing that such a move is positive for the greenback.

"I believe that currencies that are more closely correlated with investor sentiment regarding risky assets will be more vulnerable to the dollar than the euro, yen and gold," he said.

"I think the Fed will succeed if it can slightly weaken the dollar's position, and make the curve of its fall rate a little steeper. Markets have already shown the expectation of another cut in the base interest rate in December, "said Jim Caron of Morgan Stanley.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com