GBP/USD intraday technical levels and trading recommendations for March 19, 2015

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Overview:


On February 5, temporary bullish breakout above 1.5220 (previous consolidation range) took place. Shortly after, an ascending bottom was established around 1.5170-1.5200 indicating bullish sentiment on the market.


Projection target for this bullish breakout has already been reached around 1.5550 where the previous daily bottoms were located (daily resistance).


Two weeks ago, the bearish breakdown of the lower limit of the depicted channel occurred enhancing the bearish side of the market and confirming the Flag pattern as bearish.


Significant bearish pressure was applied at the price level of 1.5200 (R2), then 1.4950 (R1 = breached weekly support).


Bearish persistence below 1.4950-1.5000 indicated a further bearish decline. Initial projection target for this bearish breakout was located at 1.4700.


Yesterday, GBP/USD bulls failed to defend the recent bottom at 1.4700. A new low was hit around 1.4630. However, shortly after, evident bullish rejection was expressed around 1.4630.


Trading recommendations:


Wait for a bullish pullback towards 1.4950-1.5000 for a low-risk SELL entry. SL to be set as daily closure above 1.5015.


TP levels should be set at 1.4900, 1.4840 and finally at 1.4700.


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USD/CAD intraday technical levels and trading recommendations for March 19, 2015

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Overview:


Since bulls have pushed further above the upper limit of both depicted bullish channels and the 79.6% Fibonacci level, the market looks quite overbought.


However, bullish pressure is still being expressed on the market (the previous weekly closure came above 1.2750).


The nearest support level to meet the USD/CAD pair is located around 1.2620-1.2650 (upper limit of the confirmed wedge pattern), then 1.2300 (79.6% Fibonacci level that provided significant SUPPORT for successive weeks on the DAILY chart).


Successive lower highs were established within the wedge-pattern depicted on the daily chart. However, the market price action indicated a bullish breakout above 1.2600-1.2660.


Bullish persistence above 1.2650 - 1.2680 (previous highs) enhances further bullish advancement towards 1.2900 and 1.2960 as it confirmed the wedge pattern as a bullish continuation.


Projection target for the wedge pattern would be roughly located around 1.3060 (the origin of the last bearish swing initiated on March 2009).


This week, the current weekly candle closure should be monitored as the price zone of 1.2680-1.2650 is our key-zone. Weekly closure above it enhances the bullish side of the market in the long term and vice versa.


Trading recommendations:


Risky traders can benefit from the short-term bullish breakout above the wedge-pattern. T/P levels should be set at 1.2880 and 1.2960.


As anticipated, bearish pullback towards 1.2600-1.2560 offered a valid buy entry for those who missed the initial breakout. SL should be placed slightly below 1.2420.


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Intraday technical levels and trading recommendations for GBP/USD for March 19, 2015

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The market has previously established a consolidation zone around 1.4960 which extended up to 1.5280. This was followed by a transient uptrend maintained within the depicted channel.


Bulls managed to push towards higher levels including 1.5550 (just below the weekly supply level).


Significant bearish pressure was applied around 1.5550 resulting in formation of multiple bearish engulfing daily and weekly candlesticks.


Significant demand levels located around 1.5200 and 1.5000 were recently breached indicating a strong bearish tendency on the market.


Yesterday, significant bullish rejection was expressed around 1.4700 (WEEKLY LOW). A bullish engulfing DAILY candlestick was expressed by the end of the day.


As anticipated, the price zone of 1.4960-1.5000 was expected to provide significant SUPPLY for retesting. It comes to meet the upper limit of the long-term depicted channel.


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Recently, the GBP/USD bulls failed to defend their demand zone around 1.4960-1.5000 which was breached last week.


Evident bullish recovery was manifested on the H4 chart near the price levels around 1.4700 (WEEKLY low).


Fixation above 1.4700-1.4720 is a must to enhance the bullish side of the market allowing a corrective movement to take place.


On the other hand, conservative traders should wait for a bullish pullback towards the price zone of 1.5970-1.5030 (prominent SUPPLY zone) for a low-risk sell entry. Stop loss should be located above 1.5130.


The GBP/USD pair remains trapped between 1.4700 and 1.4970 until breakout occurs in either direction.


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Intraday technical levels and trading recommendations for EUR/USD for March 19, 2015

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The market has been pushing lower aggressively after breaking below major demand levels around 1.2100 and 1.2000 where historical bottoms were previously established back in July 2012 and June 2010.


The EUR/USD pair has lost almost 1600 pips since the beginning of 2015. This week, the EUR/USD pair has pushed further below monthly demand around 1.0550 (established on January 1997) where some bullish recovery is expected to exist.


On the other hand, theoretical long-term bearish targets would be located near 0.9450. That is why the price action should be watched around the current monthly demand level.


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A bearish Flag pattern was established on the daily chart. The daily fixation below the price level of 1.1260 (minor consolidation range) confirmed that bearish pattern.


Obvious bearish breakdown of the weekly demand level at 1.1100 enhanced the bearish side of the market exposing lower targets initially around 1.0800.


Full projection targets for the Flag pattern were successfully reached around 1.0800 and 1.0500.


After the bearish rally at 1.1300 conservative traders should be looking for low-risk BUY opportunities at such low prices.


The price action should be watched around 1.0550 on the H4 and daily charts looking for signs of bullish reversal to confirm a buy position that we have suggested.


Daily persistence above the price zone of 1.0630-1.0660 indicates a quick corrective movement towards 1.1100 where a long-term SELL position can be offered.


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Technical analysis of USD/CHF for March 19, 2015

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Fundamental overview:
USD/CHF is expected to trade with bearish bias. USD/CHF is undermined by negative dollar sentiment, the swissie demand on buoyant the CHF/JPY cross, and rise in Switzerland ZEW-Credit Suisse indicator of economic sentiment to -37.9 in March from -73.0 in February. But USD/CHF losses are tempered by negative Swiss interest rates and threat of the Swiss National Bank. CHF-selling intervention.


Technical comment:
The daily chart is tilting negative as stochastics is falling from overbought levels, the MACD staging bearish crossover against its exponential moving average; bearish parabolic stop-and-reverse signal was hit on Wednesday.


Trading recommendations:

The pair is trading below its pivot point. It is likely to trade in a lower range as far as it remains below the pivot point. Short positions are recommended with the first target at 0.9850. A break of that target will move the pair further downwards to 0.9760. The pivot point stands at 1. In case the price moves in the opposite direction and bounces back from the support level, it will move above its pivot point. It is likely to move further to the upside. According to that scenario, a long position is recommended with the first target at 1.009 and the second target at 1.0120.


Resistance levels:

1.009

1.0120

1.0160


Support levels:

0.9850

0.9765

0.97


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Technical analysis of NZD/USD for March 19, 2015

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Fundamental overview:
NZD/USD is expected to trade with bearish bias. It is supported by negative dollar sentiment and kiwi demand on buoyant NZD/JPY cross amid positive risk sentiment, NZD-USD yield differential, and stronger-than-expected 3.5% on-year growth of New Zealand. 4Q GDP hit its highest since the September 2007 quarter versus the forecast of +3.4%. But NZD/USD gains are tempered by lower dairy prices.


Technical comment:

The daily chart is tilting positive as bullish outside-day-range pattern was completed on Wednesday, the MACD and stochastics turned bullish, bullish parabolic stop-and-reverse signal hit on Wednesday.


Trading recommendations:
The pair is trading below its pivot point. It is likely to trade in a lower range as far as it remains below the pivot point. Short positions are recommended with the first target at 0.7340. The break of that target will move the pair further downwards to 0.7270. The pivot point stands at 0.7550. In case the price moves in the opposite direction and bounces back from the support level, it will move above its pivot point. It is likely to move further to the upside. According to that scenario, a long position is recommended with the first target at 0.7620 and the second target at 0.7715.


Resistance levels:

0.7620

0.7715

0.7745

Support levels:


0.7340

0.7270

0.7235


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Technical analysis of USD/JPY for March 19, 2015

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Fundamental Outlook:
USD/JPY is expected to trade with bearish bias. It is undermined by negative dollar sentiment (ICE spot the dollar index last 97.82 versus 99.61 early Wednesday) after the Federal Reserve removed the word "patient" from its policy statement as widely anticipated. However it lowered US growth estimates and its forecasts for interest rates and inflation in the longer term. Fed Chairwoman Yellen said dropping "patient" from the statement "does not mean we are going to be impatient" deciding when to move, and also noted that the stronger dollar weakened US exports and pushed down inflation rate. Lower US Treasury yields also weigh on the USD/JPY pair (10-year at 1.918% versus 2.059% late Tuesday) as the Fed signaled a more cautious approach to raising interest rates than investors had expected and Japan exporter sales. But USD/JPY losses are tempered by the demand from Japan importers, ultraloose Bank of Japan's monetary policy, yen-funded carry trades as global risk sentiment improves (VIX fear gauge eased 10.79% to 13.97; S&P 500 rose closed up 1.22% at 2,099.5 overnight) after the dovish Fed's statement.


Technical comment:
The daily chart is tilting negative as stochastics is falling from overbought levels, the MACD is staging bearish crossover against its exponential moving average, bearish parabolic stop-and-reverse signal hit Wednesday.


Trading recommendations:

The pair is trading above its pivot point. It is likely to trade in a higher range as far as it remains above its pivot point. As long as the price is keeping above its pivot point, long positions are recommended with the first target at 121.10 and the second target at 121.55. In an alternative scenario, if the price moves below its pivot points, short positions are recommended with the first target at 120.20. A break of this target would push the pair further downwards, and one may expect the second target at 119.95. The pivot point is at 120.35.


Resistance levels:

121.10

121.55

121.85


Support levels:

120.20

119.90

119.65


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Technical analysis of GBP/JPY for March 19, 2015

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Fundamental overview:
GBP/JPY is expected to trade with bullish bias.It is supported by the positive global risk sentiment and demand from Japan importers. But GBP/JPY gains are tempered by the Japan exporter sales. But sterling sentiment is dented by the higher-than-expected 5.7% U.K. unemployment rate in the 3 months to January (versus forecast 5.6%), smaller-than-expected 1.8% on-year rise in average weekly earnings in the 3 months to January (versus forecast +2.2% on-year).


Technical comment:

The daily chart is tilting positive as stochastics is rising from oversold levels, bullish parabolic stop-and-reverse signal was hit on Wednesday.


Trading recommendations:

The pair is trading above its pivot point. It is likely to trade in a higher range as far as it remains above its pivot point. As long as the price is keeping above its pivot point, a long position is recommended with the first target at 180.80 and the second target at 181.80. In an alternative scenario, if the price moves below its pivot points, short positions are recommended with the first target at 177.10. A break of this target would push the pair further downwards, and one may expect the second target at 176.15. The pivot point is at 178.55.


Resistance levels:

180.80

181.80

182.75

Support levels:
177.10

176.15

175.35


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Daily analysis of USDX for March 19, 2015

The USD index took a dive during the Wednesday session and now is finding strong support on the daily chart at the level of 98.01. This is a part of a correction move in favor of the overall bullish bias. For now, we cannot discard more bullish moves in the medium and long term, but in the near term, there could be more corrective moves.


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On the H1 chart, the USDX is dealing with the resistance level of 99.13 after a fall until the support zone of 97.19 which is below the 200 SMA. A breakout of that resistance will give more bullish momentum to this instrument to reach the next resistance at the psycological zone of 100.00 in the short term.


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Daily chart's resistance levels: 99.19 / 100.49


Dailychart's support levels: 98.01 / 96.60


H1 chart's resistance levels: 99.13 / 100.01


H1 chart's support levels: 97.93 / 97.19






Trading recommendations for today: Based on the H1 chart, place buy (long) orders only if the USD Index breaks with a bullish candlestick; the resistance level is at 99.19, take profit is at 100.49, and stop loss is at 98.27.


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Daily analysis of GBP/USD for March 19, 2015

The volatility took place yesterday in all the US dollar pairs as the Federal Reserve's chairwoman, Janet Yellen, made a speech regarding monetary policy. The GBP/USD is now trading very close to the resistance level of 1.4948. The next target for the pair in the upside road would be the zone of 1.5110. The MACD indicator is entering the oversold territory on the daily chart.


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Yesterday, we saw strong bullish movements of the GBP/USD, but now the pair is finding dynamic resistance at the level of 1.4921 where the 200 SMA is located on the H1 chart. For now, we could expect a breakout at the support zone of 1.4842 in order to reach the level of 1.4697. On the other hand, if the GBP/USD breaks the resistance zone of 1.4921, it would be expected to rise to the level of 1.5042.


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Daily chart's resistance levels: 1.4948 / 1.5110


Dailychart's support levels: 1.4820 / 1.4649


H1 chart's resistance levels: 1.4921 / 1.5042


H1 chart's support levels: 1.4842 / 1.4697






Trading recommendations for today: Based on the H1 chart, place short (sell) orders only if the GBP/USD pair breaks a bearish candlestick; the support level is at 1.4842, take profit is at 1.4697, and stop loss is at 1.4985.


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Technical analysis of USD/CHF for March 19, 2015

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Overview :


According to the previous events, the price of the USD/CHF pair has been still moving between the levels of 0.9870 and 0.9982. The resistance has been already set at the level of 0.9990 and the support stands at the level of 0.9868 (61.8% of Fibonacci retracement levels). Hence, we expect a range of 122 pips from today until tomorrow. Additionally, it should be noted that if the trend is ascending, the strength of the currency will be defined as follows: USD is in uptrend and CHF is in downtrend. Therefore, it will be good to buy above this area (0.9870) with the first target at 0.9957 in order to try to break the daily pivot point. Then, the price will be able to continue in uptrend towards the price of 0.9982 (a double bottom is going to be formed at the level of 0.9980 on H4 chart). On the other hand, the stop loss should be placed below the support of 0.9850.



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Intraday technical levels :


Date:19/03/2015


Pair:USD/CHF



  • R3: 1.0457

  • R2: 1.0263

  • R1: 1.0022

  • PP: 0.9828

  • S1: 0.9587

  • S2: 0.9393

  • S3: 0.9152


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Technical analysis of NZD/USD for March 19, 2015

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Overview :


The NZD/USD pair has broken a major support at the level of 0.7395. It should be noted that the new resistance was calculated and found at the level of 0.7400 (50% of Fibonacci retracement levels) and it is now approaching this level in order to test it. Also, you have to notice that the price of 0.7400 has become a strong support on March 18, 2015. So, the NZD/USD pair will be fixed at the levels of 0.7360 and 0.7520. So, we expect this week a range of 160 pips roughly. Therefore, it will probably start an upward movement in this area and recover again. Thus, the market will indicate a bullish opportunity at the 0.7400 level, and it will be a good sign to buy at this spot with the first target at 0.7450. It will then continue moving towards 0.7520 for forming a double top today. Moreover, we look for the weekly target around the strong resistance near the spot of 0.7560 (new projection for March 19-20, 2015). On the other hand, if a break of 0.7347 happens, then it will be a good location for placing a stop loss at the level of 0.7330.


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#USDX technical analysis for March 19, 2015

The Dollar index made a strong reversal yesterday after the FOMC statement. Dollar's weakness prevailed the markets after the FOMC announcements but the picture is different today. Dollar bulls are back in control pushing the dollar higher reversing the bearish picture we got yesterday.


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The Dollar index broke below the support at 99.30 and reached the 61.8% retracement of the rise from 94. The Dollar index has sharply reversed upwards after reaching this support level and any pullback towards 98-97 is a buy opportunity with yesterday's lows as stop. I believe the correction was steep and fast and is over now. I believe the Dollar index is heading towards new highs and any pullback is a buy opportunity.


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As shown above on the monthly chart, the Dollar index has managed to push the price towards the monthly tenkan-sen support to back test the break out at 96 So, I believe we are ready to push to new highs now. I have been warning bulls that their stops should be raised in order to protect themselves. Stops would have protected bulls exit their longs above 99 early yesterday and would have an opportunity to buy much lower again. As long as we hold above the level of 96, I remain bullish. My next target is 101.50.


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Gold technical analysis for March 19, 2015

Gold price spiked higher yesterday due to the comments regarding the Fed;s policy. Support at $1,130-43 was held and the following bounce pushed the price above short-term resistance at $1,166 but not above the important resistance level of $1,185.


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Black line = trendline resistance


After the FOMC announcement, gold price reached the black trendline resistance and was rejected. As previously, it failed to break resistance remained below the trend line inside the cloud resistance area. Trend remains bearish. This is an opportunity to go short gold again with the trend line and the Ichimoku cloud as the stop level protects us.


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Green line = support


Black line = resistance


Gold price is already pulling back after the rejection at the resistance trend line. The level of $1,145 is important support. In case of breakout, we should push lower towards $1,130 or even lower. Trend remains bearish as long as price is below the trendline resistance.


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Daily analysis of major pairs for March 19, 2015

EUR/USD: This pair has spiked upwards by over 500 pips this week, topping at 1.014, before retracing below the resistance line at 1.0800. Should the price cross the resistance line at 1.0800 upwards again, staying above it. It would lead to a bull market, which would keep on going upwards. This means that EUR is unlikely to reach parity with USD anytime soon.


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USD/CHF: As we expected, a strong rally in the EUR/USD pair brought about a strong dip in the USD/CHF pair. This pair dipped by 400 pips and bounced upwards later . The movement of the EUR/USD pair will last for some time, determining the movement of the USD/CHF pair. Moreover, some fundamental figures are expected today and they will have an impact on the markets.


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GBP/USD: This currency trading instrument also moved upwards in a positive correlation with EUR/USD. However, the recent bearish outlook has not been rendered useless, for the EMA 11 is still below the EMA 56. Only the RSI period 14 is above the level 50. Unless the price is able to stay above the accumulation territory at 1.5050, long positions would not be recommended.


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USD/JPY: The USD/JPY pair dipped by over 200 pips yesterday. The price bounced upwards by another 120 pips. The price is hovering around the demand level at 120.50, though there is now a Bearish Confirmation Pattern on the chart. A movement above the supply level at 121.50 would put the bearish scenario in jeopardy.


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EUR/JPY: This cross also rallied strongly yesterday, posing a serious threat to the recent bearish outlook. A movement above the supply level of 130.50 would signal a new lease of bullish journey.


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Technical analysis of Silver for March 19, 2015


Technical outlook and chart setups:


Yesterday, Silver passed the level of $16.00 as it was expected, and has finally produced a bullish morning star candlestick pattern. Moreover, the buy signal has appeared at a fibonacci 0.786 support as depicted here. A push through the levels of $16.80/$17.00 would confirm that the metal is moving towards the level of $21.00. It is still recommended to remain long and look to add on intraday dips from here, risk remains at $14.00. Immediate support is seen at the level of $14.00 while resistance is seen at $16.80/17.00 respectively. Bulls are poised to remain in control untill the price stays above the level of $14.00.


Trading recommendations:


Remain long, stop at $14.00, target is open.


Good luck!




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Technical analysis of USD/CAD for March 19, 2015

General overview for 19/03/2015 CET


The anticipated wave c green to the downside has finally occurred and even has went further, lower than the indicated support level. Nevertheless, the corrective cycle looks completed and now the market can make two possible wave progressions:



  • The first possibility is the completion of abc green corrective cycle in wave 2 green and an impulsive breakout above the key level at 1.2732 in order to make a fresh high. This possibility will be invalidated if the level of 1.2388 is violated (on the H1 chart).

  • The second possibility is the continuation of a much more larger and complex corrective cycle in wave 4 green in form of a triangle pattern or any other complex pattern (on the H4 chart).


Support/Resistance:


1.2388 - Invalidation Level


1.2416 - WS3


1.2447 - Intraday Support


1.2495 - WS2


1.2508 - Intraday Support


1.2597 - Intraday Support


1.2668 - WS1


1.2732 - Intraday Resistance|Key Level|


1.2746 - Weekly Pivot


Trading recommendations:


The sell orders advised yesterday should all be closed in profit now. Congrats for those who trade it!


For today, it will be quite relevant for daytraders to keep an eye on the level of 1.2732 for any possible breakout to the downside or bounce. Please, notice that "easy money" on this pair has been already made and now, trading conditions might get choppy and full of whipsaws as wave 4 green develops.


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Technical analysis of EUR/JPY for March 19, 2015

General overview for 19/03/2015 CET


The anticipated last wave of corrective cycle to the upside was done. It is labeled as wave (c) blue. The entire corrective structure was labeled as wave W brown. Currently, it looks like the pair is making the wave X brown of more complex corrective cycle to the upside. The black dashed channel should provide some support right at the level of 129.14. On the other hand, the intraday and technical resistances at the levels of 131.66 and 131.86 should provide a nice cap for the price at least for the period of wave X brown development.


Support/Resistance:


133.33 - WR2


132.45 - 61%Fib


131.84 - Technical Resistance


131.66 - Intraday Resistance


131.39 - 50%


129.90 - WR1


129.14 - Intraday Support


128.41 - Weekly Pivot


Trading recommendations:


The buy orders advised yesterday should be all closed in profit now. Congrats for those who trade it!


For today, it will be quite relevant for daytraders to keep an eye on the level of 129.14 for any possible breakout to the downside or bounce. Please, notice that "easy money" on this pair has been already made and now, the trading conditions might get choppy and full of whipsaws as wave X brown develops.


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Technical analysis of EUR/JPY for March 19, 2015


Technical outlook and chart setups:


The EUR/JPY pair reached the level of 131.70 yesterday, before pulling back lower. The pair seems to be targeting for a wave 3 corrective rally towards 140.00. Therefore, it is recommended to remain long for now and look to add further on dips, with risk below the level of 127.00. Immediate support remains at 127.00 while resistance is seen at 136.50 on the daily chart view. Bulls should be poised to remain in control untill the price stays above the level of 127.00 from here on. Looking into the bigger picture, a corrective wave 3 rally towards 140.00.


Trading recommendations:


Remain long, stop below 127.00, target is open.


Good luck!




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Technical analysis of GBP/CHF for March 19, 2015


Technical outlook and chart setups:


The GBP/CHF pair took out stops placed at 1.4650 levels yesterday but has bounced off sharply from 1.4550 levels and produced a bullish morning star candlestick pattern as seen here. This might be an indication of a potential resumption of the uptrend. Furthermore, the pair has found support around the fibonacci level of 0.786 and a trendline support as depicted on the chart here. It is still recommended to initiate at least 50% long positions (1.4755), with risk at the level of 1.4500. Immediate support is seen at 1.4425 while resistance is seen at 1.4850 respectively.


Trading recommendations:


Initiate 50% long positions at 1.4750, stop at 1.4500, target above 1.5200


Good luck!




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Technical analysis of Gold for March 19, 2015


Technical outlook and chart setups:


Gold has finally produced a bullish morning star candlestick pattern at the back side of trend line, after testing it for several trading sessions now. The metal is seen to be trading at $1,171.00 and should be preparing to rally towards the level of $1,220.00 at the sessions to come. Intraday dips are quite possible from here but it is recommended to remain long and use them as fresh buying opportunities. Bulls are poised to remain in control untill prices stay above $1,130.00. Immediate support is seen at the level of $1,130.00 while resistance is at the level of $1,220.00 on the daily chart view.


Trading recommendations:


Remain long for now, stop at $1,130.00, target is open.


Good luck!




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Elliott wave analysis of EUR/NZD for March 19 - 2015

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Technical summary:


The correction in wave iv became more volatile than expected. We expect resistance at 1.4631 to protect the upside for a break below support at 1.4366, confirming the final leg lower towards 1.4048 and even lower to 1.3864. A break above 1.4631 turns the picture around and indicates that a firm bottom was found at 1.4240 and a rally back to 1.5820 should be expected.


Trading recommendation:


We are short EUR from 1.4545. We will move our stop lower to 1.4510 to protect our self in this volatile environment


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Technical analysis and trading recommendation of EUR/USD for March 19, 2015

The Federal reserve removed only the word 'patience', but remained patient up to the April meeting. The rates hike is imminent, but within slow and steady policy. The Fed do not hasten to hike immediately. The Fed will start raising the interest rates in June/September. Maybe, in 2017 we can expect the previous interest rate at 3.5%. The Morgan Stanley chief US economist said that the Fed will not raise interest rates in 2015 due to the inflation rate and the weak dollar.


The euro got relief from the FOMC meeting. Bulls are trying to get to 20DSMA. Eventually, the euro looks weak against USD. In case if the pair produces a relief rally, it will not mean that the euro will get stronger. The US dollar gets weaker on profit fixing after a spectacular rally. The pair managed to close above hourly moving averages on the H1 and H4 charts. During a day it rose more than 400 pips that is the biggest one-day increase since July 2010. Today, during the early Asian session, the euro is trading lower against USD, JPY, GBP and AUD. The pair's weekly parallel resistance seems to be at 1.1098. We have been recommending to trade with the target at 0.9000 for the last three weeks. Parallel support is seen at 1.0335. We still recommend the same strategy.


Upcoming event:


Today traders keep an eye on data on 4-year TLTROs and the results of the EU economic summit. Besides, statisctics on US unemployment claims and Philly fed manufacturing index is due to be released..


Trading recommendations: We recommend safe buying ONLY above 1.1100, risky traders can buy above 1.1050


Sell below 1.0820.


Support: 1.0820, 1.0650, 1.0595


Resistance: 1.1042, 1.1110, 1.1200


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To contact the author of this article, please, email joseph.wind@analytics.instaforex.com




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Elliott wave analysis of EUR/JPY for March 19 - 2015

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Technical summary:


The rally of a low of 126.87 looks strong and indicates that wave C is expected to end early at 126.87 instead of the ideal target at 125.98. There is a possibility of a final decline to the level below 126.87 as long as minor resistance at 131.74 protects the upside. At this point, the odds for this outcome seems to be low. A direct break above 131.74 is likely to call for more upside to just above 136.70 in the first impulsive rally.


Trading recommendation:


Our stop at 129.15 was hit for a small loss. We will only buy EUR upon a break above 130.85


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Technical analysis and trading recommendation of GBP/USD for March 19, 2015

Three-day consolidation gave an upside spike, taking support from the weak dollar after the FOMC meeting. Earlier, USD was teasing pairs with EUR and GBP. Both the currencies moved to 20Dsma against USD at the yesterday's session after the Federal Reserve's statement. But currencies were unable to close above 20Dsma. Compared to the euro, the pound looks stronger. Traders are willing to buy the pound on dips, but not the euro. Wednesday was a busy calendar day in the UK. UK's finance minister George Osborne presented the final full-year budget of the UK parliament. The UK is slowly approaching its general election scheduled for May. Market participants expect the pound to get under a downward pressure. Prices are trading in a bearish channel. The UK unemployment rate remains at 5.7% comparing the estimates for the three months ending January 2015 and those for August to October 2014; employment continued rising and unemployment continued falling. But a growth in average earnings took a back foot in January comparing the three months ending January 2015 with the same period in the previous year, pay including bonuses increased by 1.8% in Great Britain and payment excluding bonuses added 1.6%. However, it remains below expectations and previous figure 2.1%.


The pound is trading higher against the US dollar at the Asian session today. Traders eye on unemployment data from the US and Philly Fed manufacturing data. In case positive readings is printed again, the cable is likely to go back towards 1.4850, 1.4750, and 1.4700. If economic data from the US do not meet the expectations, more spike is likely to develope towards 1.5165 and 1.5185. The UK election remains the main concern. Intraday support is seen at 1.4938 and 1.4850. We recommend selling below 1.4930 with targets at 1.4860, 1.4800, and 1.4770. Bears are back on a track below 1.4740 and panic will be triggered below 1.4630. We recommend buying above 1.5030 with targets at 1.5135, 1.5165, and 1.5180.


Trade: Buying above 1.5030


Selling below 1.4930 , risky tarders use sl 1.5010 sell.


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To contact the author of this story, please email- joseph.wind@analytics.instaforex.com




The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Technical analysis and trading recommendation of USD/CAD and USD/JPY for March 19, 2015

The Federal Reserve moved in line with market participants' expectations. The word patience was dropped.The rates hike is imminent, but within slow and steady policy. The Fed does not hasten to rase it immediately. The Fed will start hike its interest rates in June/September. Probably, in 2017 we can expect the previous interest rate of 3.5%.


Views


The Morgan Stanley chief US economist said that the Fed will not raise interest rates in 2015 due to the inflation rate and the weak dollar.


Deutsche Bank: The Fed is clearly worried that removing of the word "patience" would cause the opposite reaction with market expectations. In the end of the year, the United States is expected to cut the federal funds rate 25 basis points to 1.0 percent and down 50 basis points in 2016 to 2.0%.


The experts at Goldman Sachs still expect that the Fed will raise interest rates in September; a bitmap displays that 2015 will, most likely, have two 25-basis-point rate hikes, instead of three times.


Today, traders keep an eye on the US unemployment claims, Philly fed manufacturing data. Positive readings help the US dollar take leadership back.


USD/CAD


The Canadian dollar rallied almost 2% against USD during the yesterday's session. The pair breaks and closes below 20DSMA. Today, during the early Asian session, 20DSMA is acting as strong resistance. The pair prepared a strong support base between 1.2350 and 1.2300 200MSMA. Until prices close above 1.2300, buy on dips still remains in play. During the yesterday's session, the pair took support from 50DSMA 1.2448 and move higher. Intraweek support is at 1.2448. The pair corrects almost 80% from its recent move from 1.2350 to 1.2824. We recommend buying with SL at 1.2448 on a closing basis with targets 1.2595, 1.2650 and 1.2720. We can expect strong upswing above 1.2750 towards a fresh high. Today, ahead of big economic data, the US dollar is trading lower against the loonie and yen. We recommend selling below 1.2440 with targets 1.2400 and 1.2350. My strategy of buying on dips remains in play with SL at 1.2300.


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USD/JPY


The yen gains the leadership quality after the Fed meeting. Profit fixing action takes place on theUS dollar, leadership status shifted to the yen. The yen is trading higher against USD, EUR and GBP. During the yesterday's session the pair closed below 20DSMA. Today, during the Asian session, the pair is not able to breach above 20DSMA. The immediate resistance seems to be at 120.50 and 120.80. We can expect a huge spike above 120.80. Parallel support is at 119.00 50DSMA. We recommend buying with SL at 118.90. This view is valid up to this weekend.


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To contact the author of this article, please send your emails to joseph.wind@analytics.instaforex.com.


The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Technical analysis of EUR/USD for March 19, 2015

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When the European market opens, economic data about the EU Economic Summit, targeted LTRO, and the ECB Economic Bulletin are expected to be released. The US will publish economic data about natural gas inventories, CB Leading Index m/m, CB Leading Index y/y, Current Account, and Unemployment Claims. So amid the reports, EUR/USD will move low to medium volatility during this day.




TODAY TECHNICAL LEVELS:




Breakout BUY Level: 1.0899.




Strong Resistance:1.0893.




Original Resistance: 1.0882.




Inner Sell Area: 1.0871.




Target Inner Area: 1.0846.




Inner Buy Area: 1.0821.




Original Support: 1.0810.




Strong Support: 1.0799.




Breakout SELL Level: 1.0793.








Disclaimer: Trading Forex (foreign exchange) on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.


The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Technical analysis of USD/JPY for March 19, 2015

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In Asia, Japan will release data on all industries activity m/m while the US is expected to publish economic data about natural gas inventories, the CB Leading Index m/m, CB Leading Index y/y, current accounts, and unemployment claims. So, there is a strong probability that the USD/JPY pair will move with low to medium volatility during the day.




TODAY TECHNICAL LEVELS:




Resistance. 3: 120.53.




Resistance. 2: 120.30.




Resistance. 1: 120.06.




Support. 1: 119.77.




Support. 2: 119.54.




Support. 3: 119.30.








Disclaimer: Trading Forex (foreign exchange) on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.


The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

EUR/NZD analysis for March 18, 2015

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Overview:


In our last analysis EUR/NZD was trading downwards. As we expected, the price has tested the level of 1.4398 in a high volume. The mid-term trends are bearish and my advice is to watch for potential selling opportunities after corrections. I found resitance around the price of 1.4560 (swing low like resistance). My advice is to be careful when buying and to watch for potential selling opportunities after a retracement.


Daily Fibonacci pivot levels:


Resistance levels:


R1: 1.4520


R2: 1.4570


R3: 1.4653


Support levels:


S1: 1.4354


S2: 1.4304


S3: 1.4221


Trading recommendations: Be careful when buying at this stage and watch for potential selling opportunities after a retracement (after bullish correction).




The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Gold analysis for March 18, 2015

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Overview :


Since our last analysis, gold has been trading downwards. As we expected, the price has tested the level of $1,146.85 in an ultra volume. Our support at the price of $1,142.00 was successfully tested. According to the 30-minute time frame, we have an ultra high buying climax, so be careful when buying gold. My advice is to watch for potential selling opportunities after a retracement. If the price breaks the level of $1,142.00 in a high volume, we may see a potential testing of the level of $1,138.00 (Fibonacci expansion 100%).


Daily Fibonacci pivot points:


Resistance levels :


R1: 1,156.46


R2: 1,160.64


R3: 1,167.40


Support levels :


S1: 1,142.94


S2: 1,138.62


S3: 1,132.27


Trading recommendations: Watch for potential selling opportunities after a retracement.




The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com