Technical analysis of NZD/USD for November 19, 2014

NZDUSDM30.png


Fundamental overview:


NZD/USD is expected to trade in a lower range. NZD sentiment is dented by 3.1% drop in Fonterra's GDT Price Index at latest Global DairyTrade auction. NZD/USD is also weighed by the Kiwi sales on rebounding AUD/NZD cross. But NZD/USD downside is limited by the Kiwi demand on buoyant NZD/JPY cross amid the positive risk sentiment and NZD-USD interest differential. Daily chart is still positive-biased as MACD and stochastics are bullish, five-day moving average is above 15-day moving average and advancing, although inside-day-range pattern was completed on Tuesday.


Technical comment:
Daily chart is still positive-biased as MACD and stochastics are bullish, five-day moving average is above 15-day moving average and advancing, although inside-day-range pattern was completed on Tuesday.


Trading recommendations:
The pair is trading below its pivot point. It is likely to trade in a lower range as far as it remains below its pivot point. Short position is recommended with the first target at 0.9555. A break of this target will move the pair further downwards to 0.7830. The pivot point stands at0.7910. In case the price moves in the opposite direction and bounces back from the support level, then it will move above its pivot point. It is likely to move further to the upside. In that scenario, a long position is recommended with the first target at 0.7965 and the second target at 0.8005.


Resistance levels:

0.7965

0.8005

0.8050

Support levels:

0.7830

0.7790

0.7750


The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Technical analysis of GBP/JPY for November 19, 2014

GBPJPYM30.png


Fundamental overview:


GBP/JPY is expected to consolidate with a bullish bias. It is supported by the improved euro sentiment after stronger-than-expected Germany ZEW November economic confidence data, positive investor risk appetite; soft yen sentiment and demand from Japan's importers. But GBP/JPY gains are tempered by Japan's export sales. Daily chart is positive-biased as MACD is bullish, stochastics stays elevated at the overbought levels, 5 and 15-day moving averages are advancing.


Technical comment:

Daily chart is positive-biased as MACD is bullish, stochastics stays elevated at overbought levels, 5 and 15-day moving averages are advancing.


Trading recommendations:

The pair is trading above its pivot point. It is likely to trade in a higher range as far as it remains above its pivot point. As long as the price is keeping above its pivot point, a long position is recommended with the first target at 185.20 and the second target at 186.05. In an alternative scenario, if the price moves below its pivot points, short positions are recommended with the first target at 182.25. A break of this target would push the pair further downwards and one may expect the second target at 181.50. The pivot point is at 182.80.


Resistance levels:

185.20

186.05

186.45

Support levels:

182.25

181.50

181


The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Intraday technical levels and trading recommendations on EUR/USD for November 19, 2014

eurdailyy.jpg


A bullish engulfing daily candlestick emerged off price level of 1.2500 one month ago. A resulting bullish movement towards 1.2850 was contained within the depicted channel.


The price zone of 1.2880-1.2900 ( corresponding to the upper limit of the movement channel ) was targeted. However, bearish pressure was applied earlier around 1.2800-1.2840 where the depicted head and shoulders reversal pattern was initiated.


A bearish breakout off the bullish channel took place shortly after, thus confirming a Flag continuation pattern. Initial daily target level was located around 1.2490.


Daily fixation below 1.2490-1.2500 (the origin of the previous bullish swing expressed one month ago) theoretically extends the bearish targets towards price level of 1.2200 (projection target of the bearish flag pattern). However, signs of indecision and hesitance is manifested on the daily chart.


The pair has been moving within narrow range of consolidation. Friday's candlestick ended up with daily closure above 1.2500.


Since then, the EUR/USD pair has been moving above this price level with some bullish tendency being expressed in the market.


eur4hh.jpg


As depicted on the chart, the EUR/USD pair has been respecting the limits of the current bearish channel until November 14.


Last week, the EUR/USD pair tested price level of 1.2500 few times as the bears have failed to apply enough bearish momentum.


Instead, few more ascending bottoms around 1.2400 and 1.2430 were established. This applied bullish pressure on SUPPLY zone located around 1.2500 where the upper limit of the channel is located.


A high probability of bullish reversal exists as long as the bulls keep fixating above 1.2500. Thus, establishing another ascending bottom confirming the ongoing uptrend.


Trade recommendations:


Based on the technical data mentioned above, bullish breakout is now a high-probability scenario.


4H closure above 1.2470 then 1.2500 gives an early confirmation. Projection target would be located around 1.2620.


The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Gold : analysis for November 19, 2014

GOLDDaily19.png


GOLDH419.png


Overview :


Since our last analysis, gold has been trading sideways around the price of 1,200.00. We are waiting for a larger volume and stronger price action. According to the daily time frame, we can observe weak demand in a volume above the average, which is a sign that we may see possible reaction from sellers (potential bearish corrective phase). Be careful when buying gold at this stage since our Fibonacci retracement 61.8% is on the test. Anyway, my advice is to watch for potential buying opportunities after a bearish corrective phase (buy on the low).


Daily pivot Fibonacci points:


Resistance levels:


R1:1,202.80


R2: 1,207.86


R3: 1,216.03


Support levels:


S1: 1,186.46


S2: 1,181.40


S3: 1,173.23


Trading recommendations: Buying gold at this stage looks risky since we may see reaction from sellers.


The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Technical analysis of GBP/USD for November 19, 2014

1416398640_gbpusdh1.png

Overview :



  • The market of GBP/USD pair showed the signs of instability. The trend movement was controversial as it took place in the narrow sideways channel. Due to the previous events, the price is still between the levels of 1.5588 and 1.5735, so it is recommended to be careful while making deals in this area. Therefore, it is necessary to wait till the sideways channel is passed through. Then, the market will probably show the signs of a bullish trend from the double bottom which sets at the point of 1.5588. In other words, buy deals are recommended above 1.5588 level with their first target at the level of 1.5690. Then, the trend will continue towards the weekly pivot point around the area of 1.5735. The pair is likely to begin an ascending movement to the point of 1.5690 and further to the level of 1.5735 (it will act as strong resistance this week). However, if the pair fails to pass through the level of 1.5735 (the weekly pivot point), the market will indicate a bearish opportunity below the strong resistance level of 1.5735. In this regard, sell deals are recommended lower than the 1.5735 level with the first target at 1.5640. It is possible that the pair will turn downwards continuing the development of the bearish trend to the level 1.5590.


The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Technical analysis of EUR/USD for November 19, 2014

eurusdh1.png

Overview :



  • Support of the EUR/USD pair has already set at 1.2441 since November 17, 2014. Support coincides with ratio of 38.2% Fibonacci retracement levels. So, the upward trend is still strong from the 1.2441 level. Furthermore, it will be very profitable to buy above this level for retesting this level in the short term. Therefore, buy deals are recommended above the weekly support at 1.2441 with the targets at 1.2550 and 1.2582 to reach the double top and the first resistance. Also, it should be noted that the level of 1.2488 represents the weekly pivot point. On the contrary, the resistance is going to set at the level of 1.2582 and next resistance will set around the area of 1.2636 this week. Therefore, the downward movement will probably be lower than the 1.2582 or 1.2636 level with the targets at the weekly pivot point 1.2488.


Intraday technical levels:


Date and Time: 19/11/2014 12:51


Pair: EUR/USD



  • R3: 1.2671

  • R2: 1.2607

  • R1: 1.2570

  • PP: 1.2506

  • S1: 1.2469

  • S2: 1.2405

  • S3: 1.2368


The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Elliott wave analysis of EUR/NZD for November 19 - 2014

2014-11-19-EURNZD-8H.png


Today's support and resistance levels:


R3: 1.6009


R2: 1.5985


R1: 1.5975


Current spot: 1.5955


S1: 1.5950


S2: 1.5922


S3: 1.5914


Technical summary:


The rally of the 1.5680 low is clearly impulsive in character as we expected. This means wave iv ended at 1.5680 and wave v higher to 1.6446 on the way towards 1.6800 is developing. The rally of the 1.5680 will likely move sideways for the next couple of hours before the final rally closer to 1.6009 to end the first impulsive rally. From close to 1.6008, we will be looking for a correction towards 1.5882 and possibly even lower to 1.5839 before the next strong rally higher.


Trading recommendation:


We are long in EUR from 1.5720 and will move our stop higher to 1.5910 and place our take profit at 1.6000.


The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Elliott wave analysis of EUR/JPY for November 19 - 2014

2014-11-19-EURJPY-8H.png


Today's support and resistance levels:


R3: 147.59


R2: 147.39


R1: 147.05


Current spot: 147.03


S1: 147.00


S2: 146.78


S3: 146.38


Technical summary:


The possible b-wave of the expanded flat pattern has extended higher and is closing in on the maximum target at 147.59. This resistance has to protect the upside for a break below support at 147.00 and more importantly below support at 146.78 confirming that wave c lower to 142.05 is developing. However, if resistance at 147.59 is broken too, then the potential b-wave count will be invalidated. Instead, the count shifts to wave (v) still being in action towards 148.30 before the correction lower.


Trading recommendation:


Our long from 146.35 was stopped at 146.75 with a small loss. We are still looking to sell and will sell EUR again at 147.50 or upon a break below 147.00 with a stop at 148.50.


The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

#USDX Technical analysis for November 19, 2014

The Dollar index got rejected as expected at the 88 level after back testing the break down level of 88. The trend is unclear as we can see the index is mainly moving sideways between 87-88. This range trading means we should be patient and wait for a break out. The longer-term trend remains bullish.


usdx.jpg

Red line = resistance


Black line = support


The Dollar index is inside the Ichimoku cloud but well above the lower boundaries of the cloud. Support is at 87.15 and resistance at 88.15. The sideways consolidation could be a sign of a top but traders should be patient and wait for a break out before betting on either side of the market. Soon, we will see a new short-term trend start. If 88.15 breaks, we could see a run towards 89 and higher. If support at 87.15 breaks, we should see a move lower towards 86.


usdxd.jpg

Blue line = daily support


Red line = daily resistance


The Dollar index remains bullish in the longer-term as long as price is above the cloud. There is clear indecision in the short-term. We could see new highs but equally possible is to see a pull back towards 86. So, we need to be patient and wait to see which price level breaks.


The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Gold Technical analysis for November 19, 2014

Gold price is in a short-term up trend as price is making higher highs and higher lows. Gold price has almost reached the 61.8% retracement of the decline from $1,255 to $1,130. Strong resistance is at that level and it is also a possible reversal level. This bounce from $1,130 is a counter trend and I continue to believe we could see $1,050.


goldh4.jpg

Black line = support


Gold price remains above the Ichimoku cloud and this shows that strong support is found at $1,145-$1,155. The upward move from $1,130 is at its final stages and I continue to believe it is a counter trend move. I expect a trend reversal soon. The first sign of such a reversal will come once prices break below $1,190.


gold.jpg

Blue lines = support


Gold price has broken the short-term sideways consolidation in the $1,190 area to the upside and is trying to make a run towards $1,205-$1,210 which is the next resistance level. Breaking below $1,190 will push Gold price towards the important support of $1,185-$1,180. Breaking the blue support lines will signal more weakness and the start of a short-term trend reversal to the downside.


The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Technical analysis of EUR/JPY for November 19, 2014

General overview for 19/11/2014 07:50 CET


This pair keeps going up, making only a small corrections on the way up and widening the divergence between the momentum oscillator and the price. Still, the most preferred count is a large, irregular flat corrective abc green wave, that might target even the level of 143.30 ( if wave c green is extended). The first confirmation comes with breakout of the 145.72 level to the downside and another test of the weekly pivot at the level of 145.02. When the technical support at the level of 144.77 is violated as well, then the next target would be lower, at the level of 143.30. If this count is correct, then the wave c green down should be sudden, sharp and clearly impulsive.


Support/Resistance:


148.01 - WR1


146.54 - Wave 1 High


145.72 - Intraday Support


145.02 - Weekly Pivot


144.77 - Technical Support


Trading recommendations:


Only the breakout below the level o f 146.31 is a valid signal to open sell positions again with the reasonable SL level (preferably above the latest intraday high). The TP should be placed at the level of 144.77 and the longer term TP at the level of 143.30.


eurjpy_h1.jpg


The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Technical analysis of USD/CAD for November 19, 2014

General overview for 19/11/2014 07:30 CET


First impulsive wave (wave -i-) to the downside has been completed and now the market is in an internal corrective cycle labeled as wave -ii-. We expect more action on sub-wave c purple to the upside to complete the zig-zag structure in that wave; then downside trend reversal is likely to be seen. The confirmation of this scenario comes with the breakout of the 1.1259 level and it must be clear, five wave impulsive wave progression. Otherwise, the corrective cycle might be more complex and time-consuming.


Support/Resistance:


1.1120 - Wave 4 Blue Low


1.1173 - WS2


1.1224 - WS1


1.1220 - Green Alternative Count Invalidation Line


1.1265 - Technical Support


1.1311 - Weekly Pivot


1.1337 - Intraday Resistance


Trading recommendations:


Day traders should open sell orders from the current price level with SL just above the level of 1.1361 and TP at the level of 1.1220.


usdcad_h1.jpg


The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Technical Analysis of GBP/USD for November 19, 2014

The pound has been continuously losing its winning streak for the 6th day in a row. Ahead of the FOMC meeting minutes, the cable is still going on its decline next to the previous low at 1.5593. The delay in the UK interest rate hike is putting pressure on the pound. From an intraday view, the cable has resistance at 1.5620 or 35DEMA, above this 1.5645 or 12ema will act as major resistance for an intraday session. Until the prices close above 1.5720, bears have an upper hand for hourly based trading. In yesterday's session, we recommended fresh selling below 1.5630 with the targets at 1.5620, 1.5600, 1.5540, and 1.5505. We are still sticking at the same theme. In case, an hourly candle closes below 1.5590, the cable can extend its fall to 1.5450. Safe traders can start selling below the 1.5590 levels. We are extending the lower targets to 1.5500, 1.5450 and 1.5430. The pair favors selling on a rise. The monthly resistance exists at 1.6030 or 50M sma levels. The pair has weekly resistance exists at 1.5800.


1416373858_GBPUSDH4.png


The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Technical Analysis of Gold for November 19, 2014

The weaker dollar gave additional strength to the yellow metal prices. The metal gained $15 in yesterday's trade, but was rejected at 200Hrema. Today, the metal opened on a bearish note. On the down side, the metal has support at $1,184.00 and $1,181.00. We expect selling pressure will be triggered below $1,181.00 with the target at $1,178.50. Below $1,178.50, we can expect panic selling below the $1,178.00 levels. The metal has strong resistance at $1,212.00 or 200MEma on a weekly basis. The monthly resistance exists at $1,233.00. Today ahead of BOJ press conference and the FOMC meeting minutes, the metal is trading on a bearish note. From an hourly view, the metal is holding 12ema levels, below this $1,187.00 is the key support level. In case if the price falls below $1,187.00, it can extend its fall to $1,181.00 and $1,175.00. The prices are closed and trading below hourly key moving averages. We recommend fresh buying above $1,198.00 with the targets at 1200.00, 1202.00, 1204.00, and 1206.00. Above 1207.00, it can challenge 1212.00 and 1216.00 levels. Risky traders can sell below $1,190.00 levels.


GOLDH4.png The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Technical analysis of EUR/USD for November 19, 2014

!EURUSD.jpg When the European market opens, the important economic report will be released such as the Current Account. The US will release the economic data too such as the Building Permits, Housing Starts, Crude Oil Inventories, and FOMC Meeting Minutes. So, amid the reports, EUR/USD will move low to medium volatility during this day.

TODAY TECHNICAL LEVELS:

Breakout BUY Level: 1.2585.

Strong Resistance:1.2577.

Original Resistance: 1.2565.

Inner Sell Area: 1.2553.

Target Inner Area: 1.2523.

Inner Buy Area: 1.2493.

Original Support: 1.2481.

Strong Support: 1.2469.

Breakout SELL Level: 1.2461.

Disclaimer: Trading Forex (foreign exchange) on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.


The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Technical analysis of USD/JPY for November 19, 2014

!USDJPY.jpg

In Asia, Japan will release the Monetary Policy Statement and All Industries Activity m/m. Besides, the US economic calendar is full of important reports such as Building Permits, Housing Starts, Crude Oil Inventories, and FOMC Meeting Minutes. So, there is a big probability the USD/JPY pair will move with low to medium volatility during the day.

TODAY TECHNICAL LEVELS:

Resistance. 3: 117.72.

Resistance. 2: 117.49.

Resistance. 1: 117.26.

Support. 1: 116.97.

Support. 2: 116.74.

Support. 3: 116.51.


The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Technical Analysis of USD/CHF for November 19, 2014

The pair made a double top on the daily chart and closed below 20Dsma. In today's Asian session, the pair managed to trade at 0.9600 but it is facing strong resistance at 20Dsma at 0.9605. In case if the pair trades above 0.9605, it can challenge 0.9615, 0.9645, and 0.9655. We can expect strong upswing momentum above 0.9655 towards 0.9700 and 0.9740. We recommend selling only below 0.9540. Today, traders are turning attention to FOMC meeting minutes and building permits. Ahead of the FOMC meeting minutes, we can expect high volatility. The pair has been making lower lows and lower high swings in the hourly chart. From the positional view, in case the price closes above 0.9688 on a weekly closing basis, it can challenge 0.9800, 0.9840, 0.9970, and 1.017. The parallel monthly resistance exists at the 0.9751 levels. Currently, the pair is trading at a 2-week low. 0.9700 is still resistance, but we can say it is a top on a closing basis unless we see a close below 0.9361. If not, it can shoot above 0.9700 levels.


USDCHFH4.png


The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Technical Analysis of USD/CAD for November 19, 2014

In yesterday's session, the pair took the support at the 61.8 fib level and managed to close above 20Dsma. As of now today, the pair made exact high at 1.1328. In case if the price trades above 1.1328, it can challenge at 1.1337, above this at 1.1366 and 1.1400. The daily stochastics indicates a buying signal. On the down side the pair has support at the 1.1288, 1.1260, and 1.1256 levels. Buyers can use sl 1.1255 add on dips with the upside target at 1.1400. We recommend fresh buying above 1.1330 and strong momentum above the 1.1337 levels. Ahead of FOMC meeting minutes, if we consider the positional short-term view, in case the pair closes above 1.1386 on a weekly basis, it can challenge 260 odd pips on the higher side. As we recommended earlier, the pair will challenge 1.1530 in the near term, 1.1644 and 1.1685 in the medium term and 1.1900 and 1.2350 in the long-term perspective. The pair has resistance at 1.1425 on a daily closing basis.


Trade:


Buying above 1.1330.


USDCADH4.pngThe material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Daily analysis of USDX for November 19, 2014

The USDX is consolidating below the bullish trend line at the level of 87.65. This instrument is likely to fall to the support level of 87.35. However, in the present territory where the USDX is moving, it is a very crowded area which could cause irregular movements in the USDX. The MACD indicator is entering the negative territory, so the USDX could extend the fall to the level of 87.00.


H4chart's resistance levels: 87.93 / 88.19


H4chart's support levels: 87.35 / 87.00


USDXH4.png

On the H1 chart, the USDX fell far to the 200-day moving average, because this instrument is making a bearish retracement in an effort to keep the overall bullish trend. If the USDX finds dynamic support at the current levels, the next target would be the support level of 87.86. The MACD indicator is in the oversold zone.


H1 chart's resistance levels: 87.86 / 88.15


H1 chart's support levels: 87.58 / 87.28


USDXH1.png


Trading recommendations for today: Based on the H1 chart, place buy (long) orders only if the USD Index breaks with a bullish candlestick; the resistance level is at 87.86, take profit is at 88.15, and stop loss is at 87.57.


The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Daily analysis of GBP/USD for November 19, 2014

On the daily chart, the GBP/USD pair found support at the level of 1.5642, where the pair has been slowed by the bullish force that has been concentrated in this area. In addition, the GBP/USD pair could conduct a rebound at this support level and climb to the resistance level of 1.5746. If the GBP/USD pair makes a breakout at that level, it would be expected to go up to the resistance level of 1.5883 in the medium term. Remember that this pair formed a fractal below the 1.5642 level. The MACD indicator remains in the negative territory.


Daily chart's resistance levels: 1.5746 / 1.5883


Dailychart's support levels: 1.5642 / 1.5506


GBPUSDDaily.png


The GBP/USD pair has moved in a range below the resistance level of 1.5686, because this pair is forming a bearish pattern to fall to the support level of 1.5590, although the level of 1.5632 could stop these falls in the H1 chart. On the other hand, if the GBP/USD pair takes a rebound at current levels, it would be expected to rise to the resistance level of 15686.


H1 chart's resistance levels: 1.5686 / 1.5739


H1 chart's support levels: 1.5632 / 1.5590


GBPUSDH1.png


Trading recommendations for today: Based on the H1 chart, place sell (short) orders only if the GBP/USD pair breaks a bearish candlestick; the support level is at 1.5632, take profit is at 1.5590, and stop loss is at 1.5672.


The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Daily analysis of major pairs for November 19, 2014

EUR/USD: This market also shows protracted efforts by bulls to push the price upwards, as bearish pulls are being rejected. A movement above the resistance line at 1.2600 would mean the end of the bearish bias, leading to a Bullish Confirmation Pattern in the market.


1416350808_1.png

USD/CHF: This market reflects a long struggle between bulls and bears – with bears gaining upper hands. There is now a serious threat to the recent bullish outlook, and it is no longer logical to seek long trades (in the face of the CHF gaining strength). A movement below the support level at 0.9550 would signal the end of the bullish outlook.


1416350835_2.png

GBP/USD: This pair is still weak, and there is a good chance that it may test the accumulation territory at 1.5600. That accumulation territory was tested last week. With enough bearish continuation in the market, the accumulation territory may be breached to the downside as the price reaches for the new accumulation territory at 1.5550.


1416350857_3.png

USD/JPY: The USD/JPY pair continues to go upwards in a slow and steady manner. This upwards journey would continue as long as the Yen remains weak – something that has helped most other JPY pairs to remain bullish. The next target for the bulls is at the supply zone of 117.00.


1416350894_4.png

EUR/JPY: The EUR/JPY continues its slow and steady journey to the upside. The bullish bias would continue to hold as the EUR continues to make effort to become strong and the JPY continues to be weak. The next target to be reached is at the supply zone at 147.00, which would possibly be reached this week.


1416350920_5.pngThe material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Intraday technical levels and trading recommendations on EUR/USD for November 18, 2014

eurdaily.jpg


A bullish engulfing daily candlestick emerged off price level of 1.2500 one month ago. A resulting bullish movement towards 1.2850 was contained within the depicted channel.


Price zone of 1.2880-1.2900 ( corresponding to the upper limit of the movement channel ) was targeted. However, bearish pressure was applied earlier around 1.2800-1.2840 where the depicted head and shoulders reversal pattern was initiated.


A bearish breakout off the bullish channel took place shortly after, thus confirming a Flag continuation pattern. Initial daily target level was located around 1.2490.


Daily fixation below 1.2490-1.2500 (the origin of the previous bullish swing expressed one month ago) theoretically extends the bearish targets towards price level of 1.2200 (projection target of the bearish flag pattern). However, signs of indecision and hesitance is manifested on the daily chart.


The pair has been moving within narrow range of consolidation. Friday's candlestick ended up with daily closure above 1.2500.


However, yesterday we saw a Shooting-Star daily candlestick that can resume the ongoing bearish momentum if the daily closure ended below price level of 1.2500.


eur4h.jpg


As depicted on the chart, the EUR/USD pair has been respecting the limits of the current bearish channel so far.


As anticipated, price levels around 1.2750 (upper limit of the channel) provided a valid SELL entry. Quick decline took place towards price level of 1.2450.


Last week, the EUR/USD pair has tested price level of 1.2500 few times, the bears have failed to apply enough bearish momentum.


Instead, few more ascending bottoms around 1.2400 and 1.2430 were established. This applied bullish pressure on SUPPLY zone located around 1.2500 where the upper limit of the channel is located.


A high probability of bullish reversal exists as long as the bulls keep fixating above 1.2500. Thus, establishing another ascending bottom confirming the ongoing uptrend.


Trade recommendations:


Based on the technical data mentioned above, bullish breakout is now a high-probability scenario.


4H closure above 1.2470 then 1.2500 gives an early confirmation. Projection target would be located around 1.2600.


The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Technical analysis of USD/JPY for November 18, 2014

USDJPYM30.png


Fundamental overview:


USD/JPY is expected to consolidate with a bullish bias after hitting a seven-year high at 117.06 on Monday. It is underpinned by the increased expectations that Prime Minister Abe will delay a planned sales-tax hike after a surprise 0.4% on-quarter contraction in Japan 3Q GDP (versus forecast for 0.5% expansion). USD/JPY also supported by broadly firmer USD undertone (ICE spot dollar index last at 87.96 versus 87.60 early Monday) on relative better U.S. economic picture and diverging U.S. monetary policy stance versus other major economies; ultra-loose Bank of Japan's monetary policy and demand from Japan's importers. But USD sentiment is dented by the surprise 0.1% drop in U.S. October industrial production (versus forecast +0.2%), lower-than-expected U.S. October capacity utilization of 78.9% (versus forecast 79.3%), weaker-than-expected rise in U.S. Empire State's business conditions index to 10.16 in November from 6.17 in October (versus forecast 10.50). USD/JPY gains are also tempered by Japan's exporter sales.


Technical comment:

Daily chart is still positive-biased as MACD is bullish, stochastics stays elevated at overbought levels, 5 and 15-day moving averages are advancing.


Trading recommendations:

The pair is trading above its pivot point. It is likely to trade in a higher range as far as it remains above its pivot point. As long as the price is keeping above its pivot point, a long position is recommended with the first target at 117.30 and the second target at 117.60. In an alternative scenario, if the price moves below its pivot points, short positions are recommended with the first target at 116.05. A break of this target would push the pair further downwards and one may expect the second target at 115.80. The pivot point is at 116.35.


Resistance levels:

117.30

117.60

118


Support levels:

116.05

115.80

115.50


The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Technical analysis of USD/CHF for November 18, 2014

USDCHFM30.png


Fundamental overview:


USD/CHF is expected to trade in a higher range. Underpinned by broadly firmer USD undertone (ICE spot dollar index last at 87.96 versus 87.60 early Monday) on relative better U.S. economic picture and diverging U.S. monetary policy stance versus other major economies, contagion from weak EUR on CHF and dovish Swiss National Bank's monetary policy.


Technical comments:

Daily chart is mixed as MACD and stochastics are bearish, but the bullish-piercing candlestick pattern was completed on Monday.


Trading recommendations:

The pair is trading below its pivot point. It is likely to trade in a lower range as far as it remains below its pivot point. Short position is recommended with the first target at 0.9555. A break of this target will move the pair further downwards to 0.9515. The pivot point stands at 0.9635. In case the price moves in the opposite direction and bounces back from the support level, then it will move above its pivot point. It is likely to move further to the upside. In that scenario, a long position is recommended with the first target at 0.9670 and the second target at 0.97.


Resistance levels:

0.9670

0.97

0.9740


Support levels:

0.9555

0.9515

0.9785


The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Technical analysis of NZD/USD for November 18, 2014

NZDUSDM30.png


Fundamental overview:


NZD/USD is expected to consolidate after hitting a two-week high 0.7974 on Monday. NZD/USD is undermined by the broadly stronger dollar undertone. But NZD sentiment is soothed by the stronger-than-expected 1.5% on-quarter growth in New Zealand 3Q retail sales (versus forecast +0.9%). NZD/USD downside is also limited by the Kiwi demand on soft AUD/NZD cross and NZD-USD interest differential.


Technical comment:
Daily chart is still positive-biased as MACD and stochastics are bullish, five-day moving average is above 15-day moving average and is advancing.


Trading recommendations:
The pair is trading above its pivot point. It is likely to trade in a higher range as far as it remains above its pivot point. As long as the price is keeping above its pivot point, a long position is recommended with the first target at 0.8005 and the second target at 0.8050. In an alternative scenario, if the price moves below its pivot points, short positions are recommended with the first target at 0.7830. A break of this target would push the pair further downwards and one may expect the second target at 0.7790. The pivot point is at 0.79.


Resistance levels:

0.8005

0.8050

0.8075

Support levels:

0.7830

0.7790

0.7750


The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Technical analysis of GBP/JPY for November 18, 2014

GBPJPYM30.png


Fundamental overview:


GBP/JPY is expected to consolidate with a bullish bias. It is undermined by the dovish comments from ECB President Draghi and Japan's export sales. But GBP/JPY downside is limited by the soft yen sentiment and demand from Japan's importers as well as by sterling demand on retreating EUR/GBP cross.


Technical comment:

Daily chart is mixed as MACD indicator is bullish, slow stochastic measure stays elevated at the overbought levels; five and 15-day moving averages are advancing but the bearish shooting-star candlestick pattern was completed on Monday.


Trading recommendations:

The pair is trading above its pivot point. It is likely to trade in a higher range as far as it remains above its pivot point. As long as the price is keeping above its pivot point, a long position is recommended with the first target at 183.35 and the second target at 183.95. In an alternative scenario, if the price moves below its pivot points, short positions are recommended with the first target at 181.05. A break of this target would push the pair further downwards and one may expect the second target at 180.50. The pivot point is at 182.


Resistance levels:

183.35

183.95

184.75

Support levels:

181.05

180.75

180.50


The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com