EUR and GBP: the German economy continues to show excellent results, which is not to say about the UK GDP

The euro continued to be in demand in the morning before the release of an important report on inflation in the United States. The demand was associated with data on German exports, which revived in March this year, which will support the economy in the 1st quarter of this year. Given the growth of exports in conditions of aggravation of world trade contradictions, we can safely say that the German economy will continue to maintain its leading position in the EU.

According to the German Federal Bureau of Statistics, the export of goods from Germany in March 2019 increased by 1.5% compared with the previous month. Import growth was 0.4%. As a result, Germany's foreign trade surplus amounted to 20.0 billion euros, while economists expected it to reach 18.1 billion euros.

Data on industrial production in France did not affect the market, since the decline was predicted by economists.

According to the report, industrial production in France in March 2019 decreased by 0.9% compared with February, while a decline of 0.5% was predicted. In February, industrial production was revised to 0.1% from 0.4%. The main decline was due to a fall in manufacturing. However, as noted by a number of experts, despite the decline in March, in general, in the first quarter of 2019, the growth of industrial production in France was quite decent.

As for the technical picture of the EURUSD pair, it remained unchanged. The main task of buyers of risky assets remains the protection level of 1.1215, which will keep the upward trend and will lead to an update of the highs in the area of 1.1290 and 1.1340. The return of the euro under the level of 1.1215 can quickly return to the market of large sellers, putting on a further continuation of the downward trend with the update of the minimums of 1.1130 and 1.1080.

The British pound ignored the data on the slowdown in economic growth in March of this year. According to a report by the National Bureau of Statistics, UK GDP fell by 0.1% compared with February, while economists had expected GDP to remain unchanged.

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Compared to the 4th quarter of 2018, in the 1st quarter of this year, the UK economy showed an increase of 0.5%, which fully coincided with economists' forecasts. On an annualized basis, GDP growth in the first quarter was 2% against a growth of 0.9% in the last quarter of last year.

The growth was mainly due to the fact that the companies were able to prepare for the scenario of the uncontrolled Brexit at the beginning of this year, which made it possible to show the best results. Good growth in industrial production is proof of that.

According to the report, industrial production in the UK in March 2019 rose immediately by 0.7% compared with February and by 1.3% compared with the same period in 2018. Economists had forecast growth of 0.4% and 0.8%, respectively.

A good contribution to the overall figure was made by manufacturing in the manufacturing industry, which in the UK increased by 0.9% in March and by 2.6% compared to the same period in 2018. Manufacturing production in the UK was forecasted at 0.5% and 1.6%, respectively.

As for the technical picture of the GBPUSD pair, buyers need to form a reversal of the current downward correction that has been observed all this week. It will be possible to do this only after the return and consolidation above the resistance of 1.3030, which will make it possible to get to the larger levels of 1.3030 and 1.3230 next week. If the big bulls continue to be on the sidelines, the downward movement in the pound is likely to continue to the levels of 1.2930 and 1.2860.

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GBP/USD: plan for the US session on May 10. The pound ignored weak data on the UK economy

To open long positions on GBP/USD, you need:

The pound ignored the weak data on the UK economy, which slowed in March this year. This is a good signal for buyers, but to continue growth requires a breakthrough of the resistance of 1.3020-25, which I paid attention to this morning. The breakthrough of this range will form a new, larger upward wave with a high of 1.3074 and 1.3125, where I recommend fixing the profits. In the scenario of GBP/USD decline, for example, after the release of inflation data in the US to long positions, you can look at a false breakout in the support area of 1.2971 or a rebound from the minimum of 1.2933.

To open short positions on GBP/USD, you need:

Bears formed a false breakdown in the resistance area of 1.3020, however, even on poor data on GDP, there was no downward movement, which is a very bad signal for sellers. The whole calculation in the second half of the day will be reduced to the data on inflation in the US, which may push the pair down to the support area of 1.2971 and 1.2933, where I recommend fixing the profits. In the growth scenario above 1.3020-25, it is best to sell after a false breakout in the resistance area of 1.3074 or a rebound from the maximum of 1.3125.

Indicator signals:

Moving Averages

Trading is conducted in the area of 30 and 50 moving averages, which indicates the lateral nature of the market before the data.

Bollinger Bands

The volatility of the indicator has decreased, which does not give signals on entering the market.

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Description of indicators

  • MA (moving average) 50 days - yellow
  • MA (moving average) 30 days - green
  • MACD: fast EMA 12, slow EMA 26, SMA 9
  • Bollinger Bands 20
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Bitcoin analysis for May 10, 2019 - Rising wedge in creation

BTC has been trading upwards. The price tested the level of $6.400. Anyway, buying looks very dangerous and selling is preferable.

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Green lines – Rising wedge in creation (bearish pattern)

Blue line – 20 Exponential moving average

White diagonal line – Resistance on the test

Blue horizontal line – Support 1 ($6.141)

Blue horizontal line – Support 2 ($5.850)

Rising wedge is in creation, which may represent strong sign of the weakness on BTC. The bearish divergence is present, which adds more potential weakness on BTC. Support levels are seen at the price of $6.211 and $5.850. Resistance level is found at $6.400. Since the BTC is on the extended-up run, there are high odds that sell off might happen, so be prepared. Watch for selling opportunities with the first target at $6.211.

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Analysis of Gold for May 10, 2019

Gold has been trading sideways at the price of $1.287. The intraday momentum is bullish and there is also potential for the breakout of the balance, which is positive sign for the Gold. Buying opportunities are preferable.

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Purple rectangle – Resistance $1.285

White horizontal line – Resistance 2 ($1.289)

White diagonal line – Resistance on the test

Yellow rectangle – Support 1 ($1.277)

Blue rectangle – Major support $1.265

We found that Gold is trying to breakout few resistance levels and make new push higher. The breakout of the $1.291 would confirm bullish momentum and potential test of the $1.309. The medium Keltner line has started to act like support and that is positive sign for the Gold. As long as the Gold is trading above $1.277, the trend will remain bullish. Watch for buying opportunities with the first target at $1.309.

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EUR/USD: plan for the US session on May 10. Euro buyers are preparing for the next jump

To open long positions on EURUSD, you need:

In the first half of the day, euro buyers held the pair before the release of important statistics on the US economy. Further movement of the euro will directly depend on it. While trading will be conducted above the range of 1.1215, one can count on the EUR/USD growth in the area of last week's maximum to 1.1260, which will maintain the upward potential with the test levels of 1.1282 and 1.1301, where I recommend fixing the profits. In the case of the euro decline in the afternoon, after a good report on inflation in the US, long positions are best returned to the rebound from a low of 1.1170, or after updating the larger support of 1.1138, where the bears will take profits.

To open short positions on EURUSD, you need:

Bears need to return to the level of 1.1214, which will signal the opening of short positions in the euro in order to reduce to the support of 1.1170, where I recommend fixing the profits. However, the whole emphasis of sellers will be shifted to the data on inflation in the US, which may derail EUR/USD in the area of the lows of 1.1138 and 1.1112. In the scenario of further growth of the euro, it is best to open short positions on the rebound from the maximum of 1.1260, or even higher – in the area of 1.1300.

Indicator signals:

Moving Averages

Trading is conducted above 30 and 50 moving averages, which indicates the continuation of the upward trend in the euro.

Bollinger Bands

In case of a decrease, the lower limit of the indicator in the area of 1.1214 may provide temporary support.

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Description of indicators

  • MA (moving average) 50 days - yellow
  • MA (moving average) 30 days - green
  • MACD: fast EMA 12, slow EMA 26, SMA 9
  • Bollinger Bands 20
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GBP/USD analysis for May 10, 2019

GBP/USD is trading sideways to upwards at the price of 1.3024 in past 24 hours. We still expect upside on the GBP and further strength.

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Purple rectangle – Resistance 1.3024

Red horizontal line – Support 1.2991

Red horizontal line – Support 2 1.2967

We found that bullish divergence on the Stochastic oscillator on the 4H time – frame did set the bullish tone. We also found that there is broken supply trendline (white diagonal line), which is another sign of the potential strength. The GBP didn't rally for 4 days and we expect potential rally.

Upward references are set:

1.3076

1.3111

Downward references:

1.2991

1.2967

Our advice is to watch for buying opportunities with the first target at 1.3076. As long as the price is trading above the 1.2967 the trend will remain bullish.

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EUR/GBP: against the fading pound, the euro looks like a favorite

Today, the pound completely ignored the published data on the growth of the British economy and the volume of industrial production. The British currency is still under the pressure of Brexit: after the last failed negotiations between Laborites and Theresa may, this issue again plunged into an atmosphere of uncertainty. In pair with the dollar, the pound balances on the border of 29 and 30 figures – but in this case, the further vector of the pair's movement will depend on the data on the growth of US inflation. Therefore, it is quite risky to "put on a slide", as the price can demonstrate the Northern dynamics due to the weakness of greenback, if the US consumer price index disappoints investors.

In light of these circumstances, the EUR/GBP pair looks quite interesting. Since May 6, that is, since the beginning of this week, the EUR/GBP has been growing steadily, rising in 5 days from 0.8490 to the current level of 0.8630. The almost recoilless price growth is caused not only by Brexit – the pair is also growing due to the revaluation of the single currency, against the background of the recovery of key macroeconomic indicators of the eurozone.

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However, the locomotive of the Northern trend EUR/GBP are still British events. Contrary to the hopes of traders, Laborites and Conservatives failed to agree. Yesterday, the leader of the Labor Party Jeremy Corbyn actually put an end to the negotiation process. He said that the government of Theresa May has not yet voiced "constructive proposals", so further dialogue does not make practical sense. Formally, the parties did not withdraw from the negotiations – yesterday, the representative of May announced a universal phrase about the ongoing consultations. In addition, both the Conservatives and the Labor are now focused on the election campaign in the European Parliament, so until June, politicians are unlikely to take active action on Brexit.

According to the latest information, Downing Street is now developing new proposals that should help to break the current impasse. What exactly is at stake, and how the new ideas will differ from those voiced earlier – is unknown. But British journalists became aware that Theresa May is not going to leave her post until at least the fall, namely until the annual party Congress of the Conservative Party. In turn, the party members of the Prime Minister cannot dismiss her, as at the end of last year she gained annual immunity against a new vote of no confidence (then the conservative opposition lost the vote).

In addition, if Theresa May does not announce her intention to resign before mid-July, conservative deputies will not be able to complete the vote on candidates for party leaders before returning to Parliament in September. And judging by the rhetoric of the Prime Minister, she has no such intentions. All this suggests that in the coming months, the topic of Brexit will again take a sluggish form, while the information vacuum has a negative impact on the positions of the British currency.

But the European currency still retains the potential for its growth. The latest data on eurozone GDP growth and inflation came out in the "green zone", exceeding the expectations of experts. Positive trends were recorded in Italy, France, Spain, and (especially) Germany. Representatives of the ECB have already responded to these figures.

Thus, according to the head of the Estonian Central Bank Ardo Hansson, the latest results suggest that the European Central Bank has chosen the right tactics, so the regulator for the next few months will take a wait-and-see position. At the same time, he added that the economic data that will be published during this time will become a "determining factor" regarding the prospects of monetary policy. In other words, Hansson leveled the fears of traders about the return of QE – this issue is clearly irrelevant for the regulator (although the ECB Vice President Guindos did not rule out such an option). Secondly, the issue of rate hikes is still "in the sights" of the European regulator: if the Eurozone's key indicators continue to recover, the ECB may return to this issue in the first half of next year.

Thus, the single currency in the EUR/GBP cross-pair looks more attractive, given the growth of the main indicators of Europe and the rhetoric of the ECB. But the pound will continue to follow Brexit, the prospects of which still look vague.

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In terms of technology, the situation is as follows. On the daily chart, the EUR/GBP pair is trading in the Kumo cloud of Ichimoku Kinko Hyo indicator and on the middle line of Bollinger Bands indicator. This suggests the advantage of flat movement, without a bright vector of the price direction. However, if the pair is fixed above the average line of the Bollinger Bands indicator on the D1 timeframe, there is a high probability of further growth – up to the upper limit of the Kumo cloud, which corresponds to the level of 0.8655. This level is the resistance, but the support is the price of 0.8580 – this is the lower limit of the Kumo cloud. If the price is fixed under this mark, the Northern scenario will lose its relevance.

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Simplified wave analysis and forecast for Gold on May 10

The last wave relevant for the calculation of trading plans starts on March 25. The wave in its form is corrective. From April 23, the middle part of the structure (B) is formed in its structure. In the last 3 days, the quotes roll back down, preparing the ground for the final price breakthrough.

Forecast:

Today, you can expect a flat mood of oscillations, with a common downward vector. In the area of support, a reversal and the beginning of the appreciation are expected. The active phase is more likely at the end of the day or early next week.

Recommendations:

Sales today are high-risk and can become unprofitable. It is recommended to wait for the completion of the current rollback and monitor the emerging reversal signals to find points of purchase of gold.

Resistance zones:

- 1300.0 / 1305.0

Support zones:

- 1280/1275.0

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Explanations to the figures: Waves in the simplified wave analysis consist of 3 parts (A – B – C). The last unfinished wave is analyzed. Zones show areas with the highest probability of reversal. The arrows indicate the wave marking according to the method used by the author, the solid background is the formed structure, the dotted ones are the expected movements.

Note: The wave algorithm does not take into account the duration of tool movements over time.

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Simplified wave analysis and forecast for GBP/USD on May 10

The last short-term wave of the pound starts on March 13th. During this time, the structure formed the first 2 parts (A + B). The decline that began on May 3 gave rise to the final part (C). In the reversal model, rollback up is not enough.

Forecast:

The general flat mood is expected at the next trading sessions. Before the beginning of an active decline, there is a high probability of a short-term price rise, not higher than the calculated resistance zone. By the end of the day, the volatility of the instrument may increase sharply.

Recommendations:

Buying the pound today is possible, but we must take into account the correctional nature of the upcoming rise. It is more reasonable to refrain from trading until the appearance of sell signals in the area of the upper settlement zone.

Resistance zones:

- 1.3070 / 1.3100

Support zones:

- 1.2970 / 1.2940

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Explanations to the figures: Waves in the simplified wave analysis consist of 3 parts (A – B – C). The last unfinished wave is analyzed. Zones show areas with the highest probability of reversal. The arrows indicate the wave marking according to the method used by the author, the solid background is the formed structure, the dotted ones are the expected movements.

Note: The wave algorithm does not take into account the duration of tool movements over time.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Simplified wave analysis and forecast for EUR/USD on May 10

In the structure of the dominant on the euro chart from March 20, the downward wave met almost all the conditions for the final breakthrough of the price down. At the end of the correctional part (B) from March 1, the conditions for the beginning of an active decline are formed. The price is in the area of the resistance zone. The price reduction that began yesterday has a high wave level, sufficient for the transition of this movement to a larger scale.

Forecast:

With a high probability, we can say that the preparation for the change of the intersessional trend will end today. The next session is expected to complete preparations for the reversal. The beginning of the turn down is worth the wait by the end of the day.

Recommendations:

In the coming sessions, euro purchases will become irrelevant. It is recommended to monitor the emerging reversal signals on the trading systems you use to search for entry into short positions.

Resistance zones:

- 1.1230 / 1.1260

Support zones:

- 1.1090 / 1.1060

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Explanations to the figures: Waves in the simplified wave analysis consist of 3 parts (A – B – C). The last unfinished wave is analyzed. Zones show areas with the highest probability of reversal. The arrows indicate the wave marking according to the method used by the author, the solid background is the formed structure, the dotted ones are the expected movements.

Note: The wave algorithm does not take into account the duration of tool movements over time.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

GBP/USD. May 10. Trading system "Regression Channels". The market is waiting for macroeconomic statistics from the US and

4-hour timeframe

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Technical data:

The upper linear regression channel: direction – down.

The lower linear regression channel: direction – sideways.

The moving average (20; smoothed) – down.

CCI: -78.5633

On Friday, May 10, the British pound is trying to resume the downward movement after a small upward correction. During the last few days, the pair has been steadily falling, working out the previous growth, which was based on expectations and rumors. Since these rumors did not come true, and the British government did not come closer to resolving the situation with Brexit, the pound quite logically resumed the downward movement. Today, the UK will publish the GDP for March, the preliminary value of GDP for the first quarter, and industrial production for March. In the United States, inflation will be released today. All these reports are quite important and can potentially have a strong impact on the movement of the pair. The question is, in whose favor will the news be? The forecasts for Britain's GDP are not bad, but inflation in the US, according to experts, will accelerate. From a technical point of view, a downward movement is more preferable. With fundamental – too. Thus, the reversal of the Heiken Ashi indicator down may signal about the resumption of the downward movement. However, at the time of publication of the above macroeconomic reports, it is recommended to be more cautious and to use stop-loss orders, as sharp price reversals are possible.

Nearest support levels:

S1 – 1.3000

S2 – 1.2939

S3 – 1.2878

Nearest resistance levels:

R1 – 1.3062

R2 – 1.3123

R3 – 1.3184

Trading recommendations:

The GBP/USD pair has overcome the moving. Thus, the trend for the instrument has changed to a downward trend and short positions with the goals of 1.3000 and 1.2939 have become relevant, the first of which has already been worked out. The reversal of the Heiken Ashi down will indicate the completion of the correction.

Buy-positions are recommended to be considered only after the pair is reversed above the moving average with the goals of 1.3062 and 1.3123.

In addition to the technical picture should also take into account the fundamental data and the time of their release.

Explanation of illustrations:

The upper linear regression channel – blue line the unidirectional movement.

The lower linear regression channel – purple line the unidirectional movement.

CCI – the blue line in the indicator regression window.

The moving average (20; smoothed) is the blue line on the price chart.

Murray levels – multi-colored horizontal stripes.

Heiken Ashi is an indicator that colors bars in blue or purple.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

EUR/USD. May 10. Trading system "Regression Channels". A new stage of the trade war between China and the States.

4-hour timeframe

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Technical data:

The upper linear regression channel: direction – down.

The lower linear regression channel: direction – down.

The moving average (20; smoothed) – sideways.

CCI: 49.1622

The EUR/USD pair tried to get out of the outright flat yesterday, but it failed to gain a foothold above the Murray level of "0/8" - 1.1230. So, bulls have no special advantage now. We cannot even say that the pair is now inclined to strengthen, since the previous local maximum has not been overcome, both channels of linear regression are directed downwards. Jerome Powell, whose speech took place yesterday, did not touch upon the topic of monetary policy. Accordingly, traders were deprived of any new macroeconomic information. On the last trading day of the week, the publication of the consumer price index in America for April is planned. Inflation is expected to accelerate to 2.1% year-on-year, above the previous value. Accordingly, the US dollar may receive support today, however, as we said earlier, the current price levels of the pair are quite unattractive for new sales. Traders are obviously cautious with them, so there may be no reaction to a strong inflation report. If the real value is lower than the forecast, the euro may get support. We also remind you that today, the States should increase duties on Chinese imports. Negotiations between the countries should also take place today.

Nearest support levels:

S1 – 1.1169

S2 – 1.1108

Nearest resistance levels:

R1 – 1.1230

R2 – 1.1292

R3 – 1.1353

Trading recommendations:

The EUR/USD currency pair made a breakthrough, but it is difficult to state the formation of a new upward trend. If the pair manages to overcome the level of 1.1230, it will be a signal to cautious purchases with the target at 1.1292.

It is recommended to consider selling orders for the pair not earlier than consolidating below the Murray level of "-1/8" - 1.1169 with the aim of 1.1108.

In addition to the technical picture should also take into account the fundamental data and the time of their release.

Explanation of illustrations:

The upper linear regression channel – blue line unidirectional movement.

The lower linear regression channel – purple line unidirectional movement.

CCI – the blue line in the indicator window.

The moving average (20; smoothed) is the blue line on the price chart.

Murray levels – multi-colored horizontal stripes.

Heiken Ashi is an indicator that colors bars in blue or purple.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Bitcoin. Bulls continue to push the market up

The Bitcoin exchange rate has confidently approached the important resistance level of 6400, the breakdown of which may occur in the near future.

Signal to buy Bitcoin (BTC):

Today, the buyers of Bitcoin are counting on a breakthrough of the resistance of 6360, which will lead the cryptocurrency to a new maximum of 6520, where I recommend fixing the profits since after updating these resistances, a strong bearish divergence can be formed on the MACD indicator. In the scenario of reducing the cryptocurrency, you can return to purchases on the support test of 6070 or a rebound from the minimum of 5777.

Signal to sell Bitcoin (BTC):

Only the formation of a false breakdown at a maximum of 6360 will be the first signal to sell Bitcoin in order to return and update the support of 6070 and with an exit to a minimum of 5777, where I recommend fixing the profits. With further growth along with the trend, it is best to consider selling for a rebound in the region of the maximum of 6520.

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Fundamental analysis of EUR/AUD for May 10, 2019

Recently, EUR/AUD has been quite corrective and indecisive after breaking above 1.60 area with a daily close. The volatile phase is still not over as no impulsive bullish pressure was observed at a daily close which indicates further correction is coming.

The weak growth in the eurozone and mixed economic reports resulted in further indecision in the euro upward trend. According to the European Commission economic forecast, the euro is expected to continue suffering during 2019 with the hope of rebound in 2020. The GDP growth is anticipated to be at 1.2% comparing to 1.9% in 2018. At the same time, the unemployment rate will stay at 7.7% according to the forecast. This figure is better than previous ones but not the best. Summary budget deficit in the eurozone is expected to rise to 0.9% of GDP. Although debt of the eurozone is likely to decrease, it would be not enough to boost the euro. Moreover, the ongoing trade wars lead to weakness in emerging markets, especially in China. Additionally, Brexit that is constantly prolonged may end with a no-deal at all.

Today, German trade balance report was published with an increase to 20.0B from the previous figure of 18.7B which was expected to be at 19.4B. The French industrial production decreased to -0.9% from the previous value of 0.1% while the French preliminary private payrolls remained unchanged at 0.3% which was expected to decrease to 0.2%. Additionally, Italian retail sales report is yet to be published which is expected to increase to 0.3% from the previous value of 0.1%.

Today, the RBA Monetary Policy Statement was published where the central bank sharply downgraded outlook for growth and inflation. The bank indicated it would consider lowering interest rates unless unemployment falls further which would be a major step toward the first policy easing since 2016. The RBA predicted underlying inflation would remain below the mid-point of its 2-3% target band through mid-2021 while the wage growth is expected to be slower. The economy is seen slowing sharply to 1.75% in June from a year earlier, before picking up to 2.75% through to mid-2021. According to RBA governor Phillip Lowe, the board "concluded that the ongoing subdued rate of inflation suggests that a lower rate of unemployment is achievable while also having inflation consistent with the target."

As of the current scenario, the possibility of Australia's rate cut is expected to derive the market sentiment away from the Australian economy whereas positive economic reports from the euro zone can provide support to the euro. However, certain correction and volatility may be observed in the process.

Now let us look at the technical view. The price is currently quite indecisive at the edge of 1.60 area from where the price is expected to throw back towards 1.5900 support area before pushing higher with target towards 1.6350 resistance area. As the price remains above 1.5900 area with a daily close, continuation of the bullish trend is expected in the coming days.

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The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Markets are hoping for a bargain, despite rising tariffs in the US

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Chinese stocks fell in price, and the yuan strengthened, as investors believe that Beijing and Washington will be able to save a bargain, despite rising tariffs in the United States, which sharply aggravated relations. Traders also expect Beijing to announce tighter monetary policies and support measures if the US decision adds pressure to the Chinese economy.

"The fact that both sides agreed to continue negotiations on Friday gives us hope that relations between the two powers have not deteriorated and are to be restored," said Jasper Lawler, head of research at London Capital Group. China's major stock indexes finished trading growth of more than 3%, recovering sharply after the fall, when the new tariffs came into force. There is a version that the reason for the escalation of the conflict between the United States and China was the data showing that China's economy has begun to show signs of stabilization due to the flow of growth-stimulating measures. The market had several days to consider this scenario, and it partially took into account the increase in tariffs from 10 to 25 percent. Given that negotiations are continuing, all attention is focused on the question, will there be positive news at the weekend, after the talks in Washington? In addition, China is likely to have some incentives in the event of a failure of negotiations.

The Chinese yuan ended the trading session with an increase of 0.2%, to 6.8118 yuan per dollar, but still lost 1.13% over the week. On Thursday, the currency broke through the key level of support at 6.8 for the first time since the end of January. On Friday, the yuan strengthened, despite the fact that the Central Bank of China set the average daily trading bar at its weakest level in 3.5 months. Offshore yuan was a volatile day. In general, while negotiations continue, there is hope. As for the yuan, the recovery will not be sustainable: most likely, the yuan will be in the range of 6.75 to 6.9 yuan per dollar.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Technical analysis of USD/CHF for May 10, 2019

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Overview:

The USD/CHF pair continues moving in a bullish trend from the support levels of 1.0123 and 1.0177. Currently, the price is in an upward channel.

This is confirmed by the RSI indicator signaling that the pair is still in a bullish trend. As the price is still above the moving average (100), immediate support is seen at 1.0177. Consequently, the first support is set at the level of 1.0177.

So, the market is likely to show signs of a bullish trend around 1.0177. In other words, buy orders are recommended above the level of 1.0177 with the first target at the level of 1.0265.

Furthermore, if the trend is able to breakout through the first resistance level of 1.0265, we should see the pair climbing towards the point of 1.0314.

However, it would also be wise to consider where to place a stop loss; this should be set below the second support of 1.0123.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Euro is preparing for the second week of growth, trade conflict supports the currency

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The unexpected increase in tariffs on Chinese imports has radically changed the near future of the euro. The currency is preparing to grow for the second week in a row amid concerns that any escalation of the trade conflict between the United States and China will force the Fed to lower interest rates. D. Trump raised tariffs from 10% to 25%, and Beijing said it would strike back. Both sides are conducting the final round of negotiations in an attempt to save a bargain.

Investors, meanwhile, believe that the conflict will inevitably lead to a decrease in the interest rate in the United States. Before that, the markets were betting on one rate increase by the end of 2019. China's counter-measures, although not as large-scale, will still affect the prospects for the US economy and increase the chances of a Fed rate cut, especially since the Fed now has more opportunities to soften policies than most other central banks, and this will ultimately lead to depreciation of the dollar against the euro and the yen.

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The single European currency rose by 0.1%, to 1.1220 dollars, and has been growing for the second week in a row. Overall, the risk appetite was muted, although some of the high-yielding currencies, such as the Australian dollar, which fell at the beginning of this week, rose after D. Trump's statement. So far, trading tensions have little effect on currency markets: asylum assets, such as the Japanese yen, added only 1.2% this week, and volatility indicators on the currency market were suppressed, despite a slight rebound.

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Technical analysis of NZD/USD for May 10, 2019

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Overview:

The NZD/USD pair is showing signs of weakness following a breakout of the lowest level of 0.6648. On the H1 chart, the level of 0.6648 coincides with 23.6% of Fibonacci, which is expected to act as minor support today. Since the trend is below the 23.6% Fibonacci level, the market is still in a downtrend. However, the major resistance is seen at the level of 0.6690. Furthermore, the trend is still showing strength above the moving average (100). Thus, the market is indicating a bearish opportunity below the above-mentioned support levels, for that the bearish outlook remains the same as long as the 100 EMA is headed to the downside. Therefore, strong resistance will be found at the level of 0.6690 providing a clear signal to buy with a target seen at 0.6575. If the trend breaks the minor resistance at 0.6575, the pair is likely to move downwards continuing the bearish trend development to the level 0.6544.

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BITCOIN Analysis for May 10, 2019

Bitcoin managed to sustain the bullish non-volatile momentum along the way which allowed the price to reside above the $6300 area recently.

Bitcoin has not dropped below $6k since breaching the psychological barrier in early trading. Bitcoin has pushed on a further 3 percent today. Due to the big move, BTC volume surged up to $18 billion and the market cap over $110 billion. Bitcoin firms now at a 17-month high of 58 percent, a level which has not been seen since the big surge at the end of 2017.

The price is currently sliding down with certain bearish pressure, while forming Bearish Regular Divergence in MACD indicator. The bullish trend and the indicator above $6300 area might signal for further upward pressure. However, with a certain divergence emerging in the pair, the price is expected to push lower towards $6300 area again. The dynamic level of 20 EMA is expected to work as support and push the price higher towards $6500 area in the coming days.

As the price remains above $6000 area with a daily close, the impulsive non-volatile bullish momentum is expected to continue further.

SUPPORT: 6000, 6150, 6300

RESISTANCE: 6500, 6750, 6850

BIAS: BULLISH

MOMENTUM: NON-VOLATILE

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Analysis of EUR/USD divergence on May 10. The euro has grown again but will it continue to grow?

4h

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As seen on the 4-hour chart, the EUR/USD pair performed a reversal in favor of the EU currency after two rebounds from the retracement level of 100.0% (1.1177) and an increase of to the Fibo level of 76.4% (1.1241). The rebound of the pair's quotes May 10 from the retracement level of 76.4% will allow traders to expect a reversal in favor of the US dollar and a slight drop in the direction of the retracement level of 100.0%. Closing the pair's rate above the Fibo level of 76.4% will increase the pair's chances of further growth in the direction of the next retracement level of 61.8% (1.1281).

The Fibo grid is built according to the extremes of March 7, 2019, and March 20, 2019.

Daily

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As seen on the 24-hour chart, the picture remains the opposite. Quotes of the pair continue to be under the retracement level of 127.2% (1.1285), which retains the chances of resuming the fall in the direction of the retracement level of 161.8% (1.0941). The rebound from the level of 127.2% will increase the probability of resuming the fall. Fixing the pair above the Fibo level of 127.2% will work in favor of the European currency and the beginning of growth in the direction of the retracement level 100.0% (1.1553). There are no emerging divergences today.

The Fibo grid is built according to the extremes of November 7, 2017, and February 16, 2018.

Forecast and trading recommendations for EUR/USD:

Buy deals on EUR/USD pair can be opened with the target at 1.1281 if the pair closes above the level of 76.4%. The stop loss order should be placed below the level of 1.1241.

Sell deals on EUR/USD can be opened with the target at 1.1177 if the pair rebounds from the retracement level of 76.4%. The stop loss order should be placed above the level of 1.1241.

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Analysis of GBP/USD divergence on May 10. Divergences drive the pound into a narrow channel

4h

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As seen on the 4-hour chart, the GBP/USD pair performed a rebound from the retracement level of 61.8% (1.2969) and a reversal in favor of the British pound. As a result, on May 10, the growth process can be continued in the direction of the retracement level of 76.4% (1.3094). Today, the emerging divergence is not observed on any indicator. Closing the pair below the Fibo level of 61.8% will increase the probability of a further fall in the direction of the retracement level of 50.0% (1.2867).

The Fibo grid is built according to the extremes of September 20, 2018, and January 3, 2019.

1h

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As seen on the hourly chart, the GBP/USD pair performed an increase to the retracement level of 50.0% (1.3031) after the formation of a bullish divergence, after which a bearish divergence was formed, which together with the rebound from the Fibo level of 50.0% worked in favor of the US dollar. As a result, the process of falling in the direction of the retracement level of 38.2% (1.2992) began. Closing the pair below the Fibo level of 38.2% will allow traders to expect a continuation of a fall towards the retracement level of 23.6% (1.2943), and the retreat – to return to the level of Fibo 50.0%.

The Fibo grid is built according to the extremes of April 3, 2019, and April 25, 2019.

Forecast and trading recommendations for GBP/USD:

Buy deals on GBP/USD pair can be opened with the target at 1.3031 and a stop loss order under the retracement level of 38.2% if the pair bounces off the level of 1.2992 (hourly chart).

Sell deals on GBP/USD pair can be opened with the target at 1.2943 and a stop loss order above the level of 38.2% if the pair completes below the retracement level of 1.2992 (hourly chart).

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Wave analysis of GBP / USD for May 10. Is the pound preparing to decline to the area 1.2870?

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Wave counting analysis:

On May 9, the GBP / USD pair did not lose a single base point, and the wave marking did not suffer any changes. If the assumption about the full completeness of the ascending set of waves is true, then the pair will continue to decline with targets located near the Fibonacci level of 0.0% and below. The wave picture is now completely ambiguous, like the whole situation with Brexit. Otherwise, it's completely confusing to call this situation impossible. The UK parties cannot agree among themselves. Theresa May cannot agree with the Parliament. The Parliament does not conform to the agreement with the European Union, but at the same time cannot offer an alternative option. It seems that the market simply do not know how to respond to all these events.

Purchase goals:

1.3182 - 61.8% Fibonacci

1,3259 - 76.4% Fibonacci

Sales targets:

1.2867 - 0.0% Fibonacci

General conclusions and trading recommendations:

Wave picture suggests a continuation of the pair's decline. Negative messages are continued to be received from the UK, which may lead to a new fall for the pound in the future. Now, I recommend small sales of the pair with targets located near the estimated mark of 1.2867, which equates to 0.0% Fibonacci.

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Indicator analysis. Daily review on May 10, 2019 for the pair GBP / USD

Trend analysis (Fig. 1).

On Friday, technical analysis demonstrates a downward movement. The first lower target of 1.2942 is the support line (blue bold line).

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Fig. 1 (daily schedule).

Comprehensive analysis:

- indicator analysis - down;

- Fibonacci levels - down;

- volumes - down;

- candlestick analysis is neutral;

- trend analysis - down;

- Bollinger lines - down;

- weekly schedule - down.

General conclusion:

On Friday, technical analysis demonstrates a downward movement. The first lower target of 1.2942 is the support line (blue bold line).

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Wave analysis of EUR / USD for May 10. Markets are waiting for a report regarding the inflation in the US. High forecast

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Wave counting analysis:

On Thursday, May 9, trading ended for EUR / USD by 20 bp. However, the peak of May 1 was not updated respectively. The current wave marking remains unchanged and continues to suggest the construction of a downward trend. As before, I draw attention to the fact that the markets are now very reluctant to sell eurocurrency. This factor may prevent the pair to continue its decline. A successful attempt to break the peak of May 1 will indicate that the pair is not ready to build a downward wave, and the wave pattern will require additions. Today, the news background may be on the dollar side, as an important report regarding the inflation in the US with a high forecast will be released (+ 2.1%, which is higher than the target mark of 2.0%). Thus, it is possible that today the construction of the descending wave will continue.

Sales targets:

1.1097 - 161.8% Fibonacci

1.1045 - 200.0% Fibonacci

Purchase goals:

1.1324 - 0.0% Fibonacci

General conclusions and trading recommendations:

The pair continues to build the downward trend. The current wave counting implies a resumption of the pair reduction with targets at 1.1097 and 1.1045, which corresponds to 161.8% and 200.0% Fibonacci. The absence of a predisposition of markets for new sales of the pair and their caution in this matter hinders the execution of this scenario so far. A successful attempt to break through the peak of the alleged wave 2, 3, 3 will cancel the option with a decrease.

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Indicator analysis. Daily review on May 10, 2019 for the pair EUR / USD

Trend analysis (Fig. 1).

Today, there is an upward movement, with the target of 1.1236 - the resistance line (red bold line), and it is possible to continue the upward movement with the target of 1.1252 - the upper fractal.

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Fig. 1 (daily schedule).

Comprehensive analysis:

- indicator analysis - up;

- Fibonacci levels - up;

- volumes - up;

- candlestick analysis is neutral;

- trend analysis is neutral;

- Bollinger lines - up;

- weekly schedule - up.

General conclusion:

Today, there is an upward movement, with the target of 1.1236 - the resistance line (red bold line), and it is possible to continue the upward movement with the target of 1.1252 - the upper fractal.

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Trading plan for EUR/USD for May 10, 2019

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Technical outlook:

The EUR/USD pair has rallied past recent lows and hit above 1.1250 yesterday before pulling back. We present at least two potential outcomes today which can help to implement a trading strategy in the coming days. Please note that the price action has been tamed in the range between 1.1140 and 1.1260 levels since last several trading sessions. Immediate support is seen around 1.1170 levels and this should hold if bulls are wanting to stay in control. On the flip side, if prices fail to break above 1.1260 levels soon, bears may come back into play since EUR/USD is testing the resistance trend line close to 1.1220/30 levels at present. A conservative trading strategy is to take profits on long trades and remain flat for now, looking for further confirmation of highly probable trade direction. We need to respect the overall trend direction which is bearish for now as long as the price and the trend line resistance remain intact.

Trading plan:

Conservative traders take profit on long positions and remain flat.

Aggressive short players take short positions now @ 1.1225, stop above 1.1260 and target open.

If you would continue holding longs, revise stop to the breakeven or 1.1270 levels at least.

Good luck!

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Control zones USDJPY 10.05.19

Work outside the zone of the average course of the week involves finding favorable prices for the purchase of an instrument. The upward movement will be corrective, but the probability of closing today's trading within the range of more than 70%, so buying through the pattern of a "false breakout" will be profitable at a distance.

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The downward movement is a strong impulse, so the probability of updating the monthly minimum remains high. The breakdown of the structure should be considered through absorption at the daily level.

An alternative model will be developed if the pair continues the downward movement, and the close of the trading week will occur below the current levels. Sales are no longer profitable now, so it is better to abandon them; however, a recurring correctional movement, at the beginning of next week, will allow you to enter a short position again.

Daily CZ - daily control zone. The area formed by important data from the futures market, which change several times a year.

Weekly CZ - weekly control zone. The zone formed by the important marks of the futures market, which change several times a year.

Monthly CZ - monthly control zone. The zone, which is a reflection of the average volatility over the past year.

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Elliott wave analysis of GBP/JPY for May 10, 2019

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We continue to look for a deeper decline in wave c of 2 towards the ideal target at 141.05. GBP/JPY can now find the resistance in 143.36 - 143.74 area, which we expected will cap the upside for the expected decline closer to 141.05 target, where we see the low of wave 3 and the onset of wave 3 to above 148.87.

R3: 143.74

R2: 143.36

R1: 143.06

Pivot: 142.59

S1: 142.21

S2: 141.95

S3: 141.52

Trading recommendation:

We are short GBP from 143.70 with our stop placed at 144.40.

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Elliott wave analysis of EUR/JPY for May 10, 2019

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EUR/JPY dipped right into our target area between 122.14 - 122.50 (the low was seen at 122.49 and then the price turned around and started moving higher). This means wave ii could be complete and wave iii is developing, but we need confirmation that this is the case. Such confirmation will come in the form of a break above the minor resistance at 123.62 and more importantly a break above the resistance at 124.13. A clear break above the later will confirm wave iii is building for a rally to above 127.50.

As long as the resistance at 124.13 is able to cap the upside, we need to stay flexible and allow for another attack into the 122.14 - 122.51 target area before the low is caved out.

R3: 124.62

R2: 124.13

R1: 123.62

Pivot: 123.02

S1: 122.81

S2: 122.49

S3: 122.14

Trading recommendation:

We bought EUR at 122.51 and will place our stop at 124.51.

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China and the United States resume negotiations. AUDUSD and USDJPY are moving in different directions.

The trade war between the United States and China nevertheless entered the active phase. This morning the tariff rate of 200 billion Chinese imports was raised from 10% to 25%. After several months of negotiations, both sides consistently reported progress. And the step taken by the US government looks unexpected and illogical.

Trump put the blame for disrupting the deal on the Chinese side. According to him, China has tightened the requirements in the negotiations hoping that the United States will have to agree to a number of additional conditions. The bluff failed, and negotiations are resumed at an accelerated rate.

The world still hopes that the deal will be concluded. Today, the Chinese delegation arrived in Washington, the Shanghai Composite adds more than 2% amid the resumption of negotiations. The USD / CNY rate rose above 6.8, which can also be considered a good sign of decrease in tension.

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Most experts believe that even the successful completion of negotiations will not lead to a sustainable agreement. The United States intends to receive more than $ 100 billion in the budget, while for China, losses will approach 0.3% of GDP. China will be objectively interested in changing the economic structure and gradually abandoning the export-oriented economy in favor of strengthening domestic demand.

The dollar has all chances to complete the week by strengthening. Any interim outcome of the negotiations will be in his favor. Inflation forecasts are positive. The US Treasury report on the April budget is also expected to be convincing.

AUDUSD

As we have assumed earlier, the AUD did not find the strength to grow after the moderately hawkish decision of the RBA on the rate and resumed its decline. Investors are convinced that the decision to leave the rate at the current level of 1.5% is temporary, and the reduction will necessarily take place as soon as the two conditions that are set out in the RBA protocols are fulfilled. First, if inflation does not return to the range of 2-3% in the medium term, and secondly, if the unemployment rate does not fall. The first condition is fulfilled, while the labor market is still stable, which gave the RBA grounds for a breather.

In its latest quarterly statement on monetary policy, the RBA sharply reduced its expectations for GDP growth to 17% per year. This fall is due to the slow growth of GDP, already recorded in 2018, and the slowdown in investment in housing construction and consumption in early 2019.

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The AI Group building index fell in April to an unprecedented 42.6p, monthly international trade and retail sales data indicate a slowdown in demand for consumer goods. Australia still maintain a steady surplus in foreign trade, but equipment imports are declining, which indirectly indicates a drop in investment.

AUDUSD remains under pressure, the direction of the monetary policy of the RBA is not in doubt. The immediate goal - support 0.6961 / 64, and further to 0.6910 / 20. Possible growth is limited to 0.7009 / 15 zone and can be used to enter short positions.

USDJPY

This morning, the Bank of Japan posted comments on the meeting of April 24/25. Focusing on the fact that Japan's economy is "developing moderately," BoJ noted an increase in stimulation in foreign economies amid falling global demand, which led to a slowdown in Japan's exports and production, and in the long run will lead to a decrease in consumption.

Consumer confidence fell in April to 40.4p against 40.5p in March, falling to a 5-year low.

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The Bank of Japan hopes for inflation to target 2%, since it relies, among other things, on the expected wage growth. Meanwhile, the data for March published this morning indicates a fall in wages by 1.9% y / y, which virtually eliminates any upward pressure on prices. Deflationary trends can not be overcome.

The USDJPY came close to the support of 109.70, which we expected, but further dynamics are questionable. Technically, a breakthrough of support looks preferable, but the news about the resumption of trade negotiations led to a decrease in tension and the opening of European stock indices in the green zone, which could trigger a pullback to 110.04 and a departure in the lateral range.

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Control zones USDCHF 05/10/19

As long as the pair is trading above the WCZ 1/2 1.0129-1.0119, the upward movement will remain a priority from the mid-term point of view. The formation of a three-week accumulation zone is now visible, so the long position will aim for the upper limit of the flat, which is located at the high of the current week. Working in a flat implies partial or full consolidation of transactions at the boundaries of the range.

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If you look at the higher timeframe, you can see that the downward movement is still corrective, which allows you to assume an update of the monthly peak with a high probability.

To cancel the upward momentum, it will be necessary to close today's trading below the level of 1.0119. This will indicate the need to sell the instrument at the beginning of next week. Do not forget that yesterday the pair reached the zone of the average weekly move, so the closing of trades below yesterday's low has a probability below 30%.

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Daily CZ - daily control zone. The area formed by important data from the futures market, which change several times a year.

Weekly CZ - weekly control zone. The zone formed by important marks of the futures market, which change several times a year.

Monthly CZ - monthly control zone. The zone, which is a reflection of the average volatility over the past year.

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GBP/USD: plan for the European session on May 10. Further movement depends on UK GDP data.

To open long positions on GBP / USD you need:

Yesterday, buyers managed to stop the pound's downward movement after the divergence on the MACD indicator, which I talked about in more detail in my reviews. At the moment, the task of the bulls is the resistance of 1.3020, the breakthrough of which will form a new, larger upward wave with a test of highs of 1.3074 and 1.3125, where I recommend taking profits. However, as you can understand, everything will depend on UK GDP data, which is published in the morning. In case the GBP/USD declines, long positions can be seen at a false breakdown in the support area of 1.2971 or at a rebound from a low of 1.2933.

To open short positions on GBP/USD you need:

The formation of a false breakdown in the resistance area of 1.3019 will be an excellent signal for opening short positions in the pound, and the weak data on UK GDP will quickly pull down the pair to the support area of 1.2971 and 1.2933, where I recommend taking profits. When the growth scenario is above 1.3019, and a good economic report, it is best to sell after forming a false breakdown in the resistance area of 1.3074 or for a rebound from a high of 1.3125.

Indicator signals:

Moving averages

Trading takes place at around 30 and 50 moving averages, which indicates market uncertainty over important data.

Bollinger bands

The indicator volatility is very low, which does not give signals for entering the market.

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Description of indicators

  • MA (moving average) 50 days - yellow
  • MA (moving average) 30 days - green
  • MACD: fast EMA 12, slow EMA 26, SMA 9
  • Bollinger Bands 20
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Fundamental Analysis of EURUSD for May 10, 2019

The euro managed to gain and sustain certain momentum over the US dollar in the corrective and volatile market while residing below 1.1300 area with a daily close. The US and China cannot come to terms yet. Thus, the trade war might continue. FOMC remains neutral with the monetary policy.

Eurozone is still struggling with the economic slowdown. Although some mixed economic reports from the eurozone helped the euro to strengthen against the greenback. However, the US dollar managed to gain certain momentum. According to European Commission economic forecast, EURO is likely to continue a downtrend during 2019 with the hope of a rebound in 2020. The GDP growth is anticipated to be at 1.2% comparing to 1.9% in 2018. The unemployment rate should stay at 7.7%. This figure is better than previous one but not the best. The current budget deficit of the eurozone may rise to 0.9% of GDP. Although the debt of the eurozone might decrease, but it's not enough to boost the euro.

Moreover, trade wars are the major reason for the weakness in emerging markets, especially in China. The Brexit deal which is constantly prolonged may end with a no-deal at all. Today, the German Trade Balance report is going to be published. The reading is expected to grow to 19.4B from the previous figure of 18.7B. Italian Retail Sales is likely to rise to 0.3% from the previous value of 0.1%.

The US Federal Reserve is quite concerned about the consequences for the economy which are derived from certain market sentiment. The US economy is near to the point when inflation moves higher and a scheduled tariff increase for Chinese imports might also lead to the price hike. U.S. President Donald Trump offered to raise the tariff to 25% on $200 billion worth of Chinese goods. This action has had some impact already. Beijing said it would strike back. Therefore, tension is getting stronger as both sides pursue last-ditch talks trying to reach an agreement.

Today US CPI report is going to be published. The reading is expected to be unchanged at 0.4%. The Federal Budget Balance is also expected to drop to -165.2B from the previous figure of -146.9B. Additionally, FOMC members Brainard and Williams are going to give a speech today. If their speech is well received, it may lead to certain gains for USD in the coming days.

As for the current scenario, USD might be influenced by the economic reports today. It may lead to certain volatility in the pair. The euro, on the contrary, may gain ground from the optimistic economic reports. However, certain volatility is also possible.

Now let us look at the technical view. The price is currently heading towards 1.1250-1.1300 resistance area. If any bearish pressure or bullish rejection is observed, then continuation of the bearish momentum in the pair is expected with target towards 1.1050 support area in the coming days. As the price remains below 1.1300 area, the bearish bias is expected to continue.

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EUR/USD: plan for the European session on May 10. Buyers need to protect 1.1215

To open long positions on EURUSD you need:

In the first half of the day, euro buyers need to protect the support level of 1.1215, which they managed to overcome yesterday. While trading will be conducted above this range, you can count on EUR/USD growth in the area of last week's high to 1.1260, which will maintain the upward potential with test levels of 1.1282 and 1.1301, where I recommend to take profits. In case the euro declines in the first half of the day, ahead of the release of significant US data, long positions in the euro are best returned to rebound from a low of 1.1170 or after updating a larger support at 1.1138, where bears will take profits.

To open short positions on EURUSD you need:

The bears need to quickly return to the area below 1.1214, which will be a signal to open short positions in the euro with the aim of declining to a support of 1.1170, where I recommend taking profits in the morning. However, the entire focus of sellers will shift to the data on inflation in the United States, which may could EUR/USD in the region of the lows of 1.1138 and 1.1112. In case the euro further grows, it is best to open short positions to rebound from a high of 1.1260 or even higher - around 1.1300.

Indicator signals:

Moving averages

Trading is above 30 and 50 moving averages, which indicates a resumption of the bull market.

Bollinger bands

In case the euro declines in the morning, support will be provided by the lower limit of the indicator in the region of 1.1200. A break of the upper border in the 1.1244 area will lead to a new wave of euro growth.

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Description of indicators

  • MA (moving average) 50 days - yellow
  • MA (moving average) 30 days - green
  • MACD: fast EMA 12, slow EMA 26, SMA 9
  • Bollinger Bands 20
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Trading Plan EURUSD 05/10/2019

Friday's main event - Trump has introduced new increased duties on goods worth $200 billion from China. Former tariffs on these goods have been raised from 10% to 25%.

Despite expectations, China did not rush to make concessions to the United States. The reason for the introduction of duties, according to the United States is that China is trying to violate the agreements reached with the United States on trade.

China immediately announced that it was preparing a response to new US duties — an official response would be announced later.

EURUSD: We keep buying from 1.1220

Alternative: Sell from 1.1130

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Burning forecast EURUSD 05/10/2019

The EURUSD rate has broken through the daily level of 1.1220 to the top and gave a signal to start the beginning of an upward trend.

However, the upward movement has not yet developed.

We keep buying from 1.1220

Possible purchases at the breakthrough of 1.1270 up.

In case of a full turn downwards, we sell from 1.1130

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Control zones USDCAD 05/10/19

While the pair is trading below the WCZ 1/2 1.3490-1.3479 the downward movement remains a priority. The absorption pattern should form on the daily timeframe in order for the fall to continue. The formation of a local accumulation zone will take place, where buyers and sellers agree to work within the framework of a flat.

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Working in flat involves finding favorable prices for buying and selling the instruments from the border. The upper limit is within the WCZ 1/2, and the lower limit is the low of the current week.

To break the flat structure, it will be necessary to close today's US session above the level of 1.3490. This will allow you to look for purchases from the beginning of next week. The probability of getting out of a flat still does not exceed 50%, which requires that you search for a pattern for selling on the upper limit.

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Daily CZ - daily control zone. The area formed by important data from the futures market, which change several times a year.

Weekly CZ - weekly control zone. The zone formed by important marks of the futures market, which change several times a year.

Monthly CZ - monthly control zone. The zone, which is a reflection of the average volatility over the past year.

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Technical analysis of Ethereum for 10.05.2019:

Crypto Industry News:

The Liechtenstein government announced in a press release that it adopted new regulations on tokenization, virtual asset service providers and Blockchain.

According to the publication, the new Token and VT Service Providers Act, adopted on May 7, aims to improve investor protection, combat money laundering and ensure clarity. The announcement also cites tokenized securities and the way in which digital token systems can be used to tokenize real assets.

The new law allegedly regulates "transaction systems based on trust technologies," instead of explicitly referring to Blockchain, to ensure that it remains relevant in the event of the emergence of new technology. The author of the publication expects that tokenization will "create new opportunities in the areas of financial services, logistics, mobility, energy industry, industry and the media" in new token economies.

Finally, the communication states that the government is convinced that the new regulation will create an appropriate regulatory environment that counteracts risks, ensures regulatory transparency and facilitates the development of the tokens economy.

Technical Market Overview:

The ETH/USD pair has bounced from the level of 170 - 169 after testing it for three times. The up candle is quite big and promising, but it is too early to anticipate a trend reversal yet. First, the bulls have to break through the technical resistance level located at 181.57 - 183.34 and go straight north to test the recent highs. Please notice, the Elliott Wave count still indicates a possibility of a larger wave C to the downside to unfold in order to complete the corrective cycle.

Weekly Pivot Points:

WR3 - 187

WR2 - 179

WR1 - 170

Weekly Pivot - 162

WS1 - 152

WS2 - 144

WS3 - 134

Trading Recommendations:

The next market movement is not that clear as we got two opposite scenarios, so it is not the best time to open any new positions and it will be better to stay aside until another trading setup occurs. For all traders that still keep the buy orders open, the next target is seen at the level of 203.28, but it is unlikely to be hit before the wave C unfolds. Any violation of the level of 169.12 again will only accelerate the sell-off towards the level of 166.53 or 165.46.

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Technical analysis: Important intraday level for EUR/USD, May 10, 2019

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When the European market opens, some economic data such as Italian Retail Sales m/m, Italian Industrial Production m/m,French Prelim Private Payrolls q/q, French Industrial Production m/m, and German Trade Balance will be released. The US will post such economic data as Federal Budget Balance, Core CPI m/m, and CPI m/m. Ahead of the data, the EUR/USD pair is likely to move in a low to medium volatility today.

TODAY'S TECHNICAL LEVEL: Breakout BUY Level: 1.1272.Strong Resistance: 1.1266.Original Resistance: 1.1255.Inner Sell Area: 1.1244.Target Inner Area: 1.1218.Inner Buy Area: 1.1192.Original Support: 1.1181.Strong Support: 1.1170.Breakout SELL Level: 1.1164 .(Disclaimer)

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Technical analysis: Important intraday level for USD/JPY, May 10,2019

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Japan will release the Household Spending y/y and Average Cash Earnings y/y. The US will post the economic data such as Federal Budget Balance, Core CPI m/m, CPI m/m. There is a probability that the USD/JPY pair is likely to move with low to medium volatility today.

TODAY'S TECHNICAL LEVEL: resistance. 3:110.52.Resistance. 2:110.33.Resistance. 1:110.12.Support. 1:109.82.Support. 2:109.61.Support. 3:109.39.(Disclaimer)

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Technical analysis of Bitcoin for 10.05.2019:

Crypto Industry News:

The social media giant, Facebook, said it would change its position regarding ads for cryptocurrencies and solutions based on Blockchain technology, less than a year and a half after successfully closing the door to cryptographic ads.

The unambiguous ban on Facebook, imposed in January 2018, did not last long. In June 2018, the company announced that all advertisers would need to obtain "prior written consent", which would allow companies to choose which to feel safe. However, now, according to Facebook's statement, the company will go a step further.

Facebook will continue to block the ads of some cryptocurrency companies, but for ICO and companies that contain information about ICOs on their pages, the target door will still be closed. Cryptocurrency exchanges "will also require prior approval" if they want to advertise.

The time of announcing Facebook is probably not accidental. As previously reported, a number of reputable media sources, from the New York Times to the Wall Street Journal, said Facebook was working on a stablecoin secret project that would allow users to receive rewards for their Facebook activity or to buy products and services through a new platform using the new token.

Technical Market Overview:

The BTC/USD pair has made another higher high at the level of $6,345, but this high was marginal only and was made on lower momentum than the previous ones. According to the Elliott Wave scenario, the high was labeled as a part of the irregular corrective cycle in wave 4, namely the wave B of this cycle. It means, that to complete the cycle the market needs to unfold the wave C to the downside and then will be ready for another impulsive wave up.

Weekly Pivot Points:

WR3 - $7,123

WR2 - $6,689

WR1 - $6,362

Weekly Pivot - $5,868

WS1 - $5,578

WS2 - $5,080

WS3 - $4,863

Trading Recommendations:

The bigger time frame charts are now indicating a possible trend change from bearish to bullish, so only a buy positions should be open on the local corrective pull-backs with a potential target for all trades is still seen at the level of $6,505. Please notice, the momentum is decreasing, so the corrective move down can happen anytime soon (wave C of the correction in the wave 4).

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Control zones NZDUSD 05/10/19

The WCZ 1/2 test 0.6599-0.6592 led to a proposal. This opens up opportunities for selling the tool. The first goal of the fall will be yesterday's low. Partial consolidation and transferring the remaining part to breakeven is the optimal strategy. The downward trend is a strong structure, so it will require a major seller to break it.

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The strong demand that could be observed after the test of weekly CZ 0.6542-0.6528 indicates the formation of a market maker level, where it will be necessary to pay attention to the pair's reaction.

For the formation of a reversal model, this will require the closure of today's US session above the level of 0.6599. If this happens, next week's growth target will be the weekly CZ 0.6676-0.6662. As long as the pair is trading below this level, the upward model remains auxiliary.

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Daily CZ - daily control zone. The area formed by important data from the futures market, which change several times a year.

Weekly CZ - weekly control zone. The zone formed by important marks of the futures market, which change several times a year.

Monthly CZ - monthly control zone. The zone, which is a reflection of the average volatility over the past year.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com