Technical analysis of USD/JPY for November 20, 2017

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USD/JPY is under pressure.The technical outlook of the pair is negative as the prices recorded lower tops and lower bottoms since November 16. The downward momentum is further reinforced by both declining 20-period and 50-period moving averages. The relative strength index is capped by a falling trend line since November 16.

To conclude, below 112.50, look for a further drop with targets at 111.95 and 111.75 in extension.

Alternatively, if the price moves in the opposite direction, a long position is recommended below 112.50 with a target at 111.95.

Chart Explanation: The black line shows the pivot point. The current price above the pivot point indicates a bullish position, while the price below the pivot point is a signal for a short position. The red lines show the support levels and the green line indicates the resistance level. These levels can be used to enter and exit trades.

Strategy: SELL, Stop Loss: 112.50, Take Profit: 111.95

Resistance levels: 112.70, 113.00 and 113.45 Support Levels: 111.95, 111.75, 112.15

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Technical analysis of USD/CHF for November 20, 2017

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USD/CHF is expected to trade with a lish outlook. The pair remains above its key support at 0.9945. The rising 50-period moving average is heading upward now, and should continue to push the prices higher. Last but not least, the relative strength index lacks downward momentum, calling for a new rise.

Hence, as long as 0.9875 is not surpassed, pair is likely climb to 0.9945 and 0.9970 in extension.

Chart Explanation: The black line shows the pivot point. The present price above the pivot point indicates a bullish position, and the price below the pivot points indicates a short position. The red lines show the support levels and the green line indicates the resistance levels. These levels can be used to enter and exit trades.

Strategy: BUY, Stop Loss: 0.9875, Take Profit: 0.9945

Resistance levels: 0.9945, 0.9970, and 1.0015

Support levels: 0.9850, 0.9830, and 0.9800

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Technical analysis of USD/CHF for November 20, 2017

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USD/CHF is expected to trade with a bullish outlook. The pair remains above its key support at 0.9945. The rising 50-period moving average is heading upward now and should continue to push the prices higher. Last but not least, the relative strength index lacks downward momentum and calls for a new rise.

Hence, as long as 0.9875 is not surpassed, the pair is likely to climb to 0.9945 and 0.9970 in extension.

Chart Explanation: The black line shows the pivot point. The present price above the pivot point indicates a bullish position, and the price below the pivot points indicates a short position. The red lines show the support levels and the green line indicates the resistance levels. These levels can be used to enter and exit trades.

Strategy: BUY, Stop Loss: 0.9875, Take Profit: 0.9945

Resistance levels: 0.9945, 0.9970, and 1.0015

Support levels: 0.9850, 0.9830, and 0.9800

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Technical analysis of GBP/JPY for November 20, 2017

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GBP/JPY is expected to trade with a bullish outlook. The pair bounced off its nearest key support at 147.65, and is likely to challenge the resistance at 149.25. Both the 20-period and 50-period moving averages are heading upward now, and should continue to push the prices higher. Last but not least, the relative strength index is reversing up, calling for a new rebound.

To conclude, as long as 148.15 is not broken, look for a new rise to 149.25 and 149.60 in extension.

Alternatively, if the price moves in the direction opposite to the forecast, a short position is recommended below 148.15 with the target at 149.25.

Strategy: BUY, Stop Loss: 148.15, Take Profit: 149.25

Chart Explanation: the black line shows the pivot point. The price above the pivot point indicates long positions; and when it is below the pivot points, it indicates short positions. The red lines show the support levels and the green line indicates the resistance levels. These levels can be used to enter and exit trades.

Resistance levels: 149.25, 149.60 and 150.15

Support levels: 147.65, 146.95, and 146.30

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Bitcoin analysis for November 20, 2017

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The Bitcoin (BTC) has been trading upwards. As I expected, the price tested the level of $8,136. Hundreds of thousands of dollars worth of BCH is languishing in segwit addresses. The funds were mistakenly sent there by users who have no easy way of differentiating segwit and non-segwit addresses. Retrieving the funds is difficult, but not entirely impossible, as p2sh.info's Antoine Le Calvez has revealed. He's discovered what's believed to be the first successful bitcoin cash recovery, aided by the miners who confirmed the transaction. The techical picture looks bullish.

Trading recommendations:

According to the 1H time frame, I found the resistance at the price of $8.031 is broken. My advice is to watch for potential buying opportunties. The upward targets are set at the price of $8.196 and at the price of $8.405.

Support/Resistance

$7.732 – Pivot level

$8.126 – Pivot resistance 1

$8.405 – Pivot resistance 2

$7.477 – Pivot support 1

With InstaForex you can earn on cryptocurrency's movements right now. Just open a deal in your MetaTrader4.

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Global macro overview for 20/11/2017

It looks like this week's most important event is Thursday's Thanksgiving Day in the US, which has implications for the global market. The week will be shorter, so traders and investors in the US will leave for home early. This situation would mean a lack of incentives to play long-term subjects, and even short-term speculation may be rare. Especially on the USD side, there will be a shortage of data generated anchors. The macro calendar is light in key events releases, and progress on the tax bill in the US Congress is halted, as congressmen leave Washington for the holidays as well. The only chance for the US Dollar to appreciate is a further development of political risk in Europe. Since EUR has a dominant (58%) share in the basket forming the DXY dollar index, the EUR/USD rollover with the DXY signal could revive the strengthening of the Dollar on other crosses. Without it, there is a week without fresh impulses on financial markets that can improve the position of the Dollar.

Let's now take a look at the US Dollar Index technical picture at the H4 time frame. As indicated earlier, the market remains locked inside of the trading zone between the levels of 93.39 - 94.03 and the key level for the upside is still the technical resistance at the level of 94.47. As long as the price stays below the golden trend line the overall outlook remains bearish.

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Global macro overview for 20/11/2017

Venezuela has gone bankrupt.

International Swap and Derivatives Association (ISDA) has announced that Venezuela has gone bankrupt. The same verdict was announced in the case of the state-owned fuel concern Petroleos de Venezuela SA. The unanimous decision of the ISDA committee, in which the blatant delays in regulating the obligations of both entities constitute the so-called "credit event" opens the way for a credit default swap (Credit Default Swap).

According to Reuters, the ISDA committee will meet again today to decide on an auction mechanism that will determine the number of payouts for CDS owners. The agency underlines, however, that the Venezuelan ($ 1.3 billion) and PDVSA ($ 250 million) contract market is not too large compared to the size of the debt. The market for both entities is $ 60 billion, while private-equity estimates say $ 140 billion. On Sunday, a 30-day period has gone in which Venezuela could delay the payment of interest of $ 200 million due to bonds maturing in 2019 and 2024. As a result of this failure, the S&P rating agency downgraded Venezuela's rating to SD for "selective insolvency". In turn, Fitch rating agency announced the insolvency of PDVSA.

The risk of formal bankruptcy by Venezuela has been hanging over the market for several months. The country has been balancing on the solvency curve for a long time, with a hard time adjusting its liabilities in US dollars. The sanctions imposed by the US government deterred US investors from buying Venezuelan bonds.

Let's now take a look at the Crude Oil technical picture at the H4 time frame.as Venezuela is among the global leaders in the oil industry. The market has bounced from the important support at the level of $55.26 and the bulls have managed to break out above the technical resistance at the level of $56.38. Currently, the market is trading in the middle of the range and there are no signs of panic buying or selling due to Venezuelan bankruptcy. The nearest resistnace is seen at the level of $57.70.

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EUR/USD analysis for November 20, 2017

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Recently, the EUR/USD has been trading sideways at the price of 1.1784. According to the 15M time - frame, I found a bullish flag in creation, which is a sign that selling looks risky. I also found the oversold condition on the stochastic oscillator, which is another sign of strength. My advice is to watch for potential buying opportunities. The upward targets are set at the price of 1.1808 (swing high) and at the price of 1.1847 (pivot support 2).

Resistance levels:

R1: 1.1817

R2: 1.1847

R3: 1.1874

Support levels:

S1: 1.1761

S2: 1.1735

S3: 1.1705

Trading recommendations for today: watch for potential buying opportunities.

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Technical analysis of NZD/USD for November 20, 2017

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NZD/USD is rebounded from 0.6795 and expected to trade with a bullish outlook. The pair has struck against its key support at 0.6795, representing a horizontal level and the current 50-period moving average. The relative strength index is bullish, without showing any reversal signal.

In which case, as long as the support at 0.6820 is not surpassed, the risk of the break above 0.6865 remains high. Our next up target is set at 0.6880.

The black line shows the pivot point. Currently, the price is above the pivot point, which indicates long positions. If it remains below the pivot point, it will indicate short positions. The red lines are showing the support levels and the green line is indicating the resistance levels. These levels can be used to enter and exit trades.

Resistance levels: 0.6865, 0.6880, and 0.6915

Support levels: 0.6780, 0.6755, and 0.6720

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Technical analysis of EUR/USD for November 20, 2017

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Overview:

  • The EUR/USD pair continues to move upwards from the level of 1.1646. Last week, the pair dropped from the level of 1.1666 to the bottom around 1.1562. But the pair has rebounded from the bottom of 1.1562 to close at 1.1783. Today, the first support level is seen at 1.1731, the price is moving in a bullish channel now. Furthermore, the price has been set above the strong support at the level of 1.1666, which coincides with the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level. This resistance has been rejected several times confirming the veracity of a downtrend. Additionally, the RSI starts signaling an upward trend. As a result, if the EUR/USD pair is able to break out the first resistance at 1.1835, the market will decline further to 1.1909 in order to test the weekly support 2. Consequently, the market is likely to show signs of a bullish trend. So, it will be good to buy above the level of 1.1731 with the first target at 1.1835 and further to 1.1909. However, stop loss is to be placed above the level of 1.1640.
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Technical analysis of GBP/USD for November 20, 2017

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Overview:

  • For a long time, the GBP/USD pair is still moving upwards above the level of 1.3017. The first support level is currently seen at 1.3017. The trend is still set above the level of 1.3017 for that the price is moving in a bullish channel now. Furthermore, the price has been set above the strong support at the level of 1.3017, which coincides with the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level. This support has been rejected three times confirming the veracity of an uptrend. According to the previous events, we expect the GBP/USD pair to trade between 1.3017 and 1.3298. So, the support is seen at 1.3017, while daily resistance is found at 1.3298. Therefore, the market is likely to show signs of a bullish trend around the spot of 1.3017. In other words, buy orders are recommended above the zone of 1.3017 with the first target at the level of 1.3298; and continue towards 1.3655 in coming days. On the other hand, if the GBP/USD pair fails to break through the resistance level of 1.3298 today, the market will decline further to 1.2820.
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USD/JPY analysis for November 20, 2017

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Recently, the USD/JPY has been trading sideways at the price of 112.24. According to the 15M time - frame, I found that price is trading below the pivot level at the price of 112.42, which is a sign that sellers are in control. I also found a bearish flag in creation, which is another sign that buying looks risky. My advice is to watch for potential selling opportunities. The downward targets are set at the price of 111.70 (pivot support 1) and at the price of 111.25 (pivot support 2).

Resistance levels:

R1: 112.89

R2: 113.61

R3: 114.10

Support levels:

S1: 111.70

S2: 111.25

S3: 110.49

Trading recommendations for today: watch for potential selling opportunities.

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NZD/USD Intraday technical levels and trading recommendations for November 20, 2017

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Daily Outlook

A recent bullish breakout above the downtrend line took place on May 22. Since then, the market has been bullish as depicted on the chart.

This resulted in a quick bullish advance towards next price zones around 0.7150-0.7230 (Key-Zone) and 0.7310-0.7380 which was temporarily breached to the upside.

Recent bearish pullback was executed towards the price zone of 0.7310-0.7380 (newly-established demand-zone) which failed to offer enough bullish support for the NZD/USD pair.

Re-consolidation below the price level of 0.7300 enhanced the bearish side of the market. This brought the NZD/USD pair again towards 0.7230-0.7150 (Key-Zone) which failed to pause the ongoing bearish momentum.

An atypical Head and Shoulders pattern was expressed on the depicted chart indicating high probability of bearish reversal as long as bearish persistence below the neckline 0.7150 is maintained.

As expected, the price level of 0.7050 failed to offer enough bullish support for the NZD/USD pair. That's why, further bearish decline was expected towards 0.6800 (Reversal pattern bearish target).

If the recent low (0.6817) remains defended by the bulls, a bullish pullback can be expected towards 0.7050 if the current bullish pullback persists above 0.6970 ( Intraday Key-level ).

Trade recommendations:

If the current bullish pullback persists towards 0.7050, a valid SELL entry can be offered around there.

S/L should be placed above 0.7100. T/P levels to be placed at 0.6970, 0.6900 and 0.6830.

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Intraday technical levels and trading recommendations for EUR/USD for November 20, 2017

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Monthly Outlook

In January 2015, the EUR/USD pair moved below the major demand levels near 1.2050-1.2100 (multiple previous bottoms set in July 2012 and June 2010). Hence, a long-term bearish target was projected toward 0.9450.

In March 2015, EUR/USD bears challenged the monthly demand level around 1.0500, which had been previously reached in August 1997.

In the longer term, the level of 0.9450 remains a projected target if any monthly candlestick achieves bearish closure below the depicted monthly demand level of 1.0500.

However, the EUR/USD pair has been trapped within the depicted consolidation range (1.0500-1.1450) until the current bullish breakout was executed above 1.1450.

The current bullish breakout above 1.1450 allowed a quick bullish advance towards 1.2100 where recent evidence of bearish rejection was expressed (Note the previous Monthly candlestick of September).

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Daily Outlook

In January 2017, the previous downtrend was reversed when the Inverted Head and Shoulders pattern was established around 1.0500. Since then, evident bullish momentum has been expressed on the chart.

As anticipated, the ongoing bullish momentum allowed the EUR/USD pair to pursue further bullish advance towards 1.1415-1.1520 (Previous Daily Supply-Zone).

The daily supply zone failed to pause the ongoing bullish momentum. Instead, evident bullish breakout was expressed towards the price level of 1.2100 where the depicted Head and Shoulders reversal pattern was expressed.

If the recent bearish breakout persists below 1.1700 (Neckline of the reversal pattern), a quick bearish decline should be expected towards the price zone of 1.1415-1.1520 (Initial targets for the depicted H&S pattern).

Bearish target for the depicted Head and Shoulders pattern extends towards 1.1350. However, to pursue towards the mentioned target level, significant bearish pressure is needed to be applied against the mentioned zone (1.1415-1.1520).

Trade Recommendations

Recent price action around the price zone of 1.1520-1.1415 indicated evident bullish recovery. This scenario remains valid as long as the recent low around 1.1550 remains unbroken.

On the other hand, the current price levels around 1.1850 should be watched for a possible short-term SELL entry if enough bearish momentum is maintained. ( Note the shooting-star daily candlestick of Wednesday).

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Trading Plan for EUR/USD and US Dollar Index for November 20, 2017

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Technical outlook:

The EUR/USD pair is still into its corrective rally that began from 1.1550 levels earlier. It has clearly bounced right at the back side of the trend line resistance as seen here and producing a morning star since then. The overall wave count is still offering 2 probable scenarios. Higher probability scenario suggests the pair has produces a 5 waves leading diagonal from 1.2092 through 1.1500 levels, terminating into wave (1). The subsequent rally is been working to terminate into wave (2), which could potentially reach 1.1975 or 1.2050 levels as shown here (red lines). An alternate scenario suggests that the entire drop from 1.2092 through 1.1500 levels could be corrective (ABC-X-ABC, double zigzag) and that leaves doors open through new highs or another ABC corrective rally before dropping sharply. In both the above scenario, a common point could be a rally at least through 1.1900/50 levels. We would recommend a short term change in the trading plan.

Trading plan:

1. Remain short with a risk above 1.1860 and target 1.1700.

2. Then go long with risk at 1.1550 and target 1.1950.

US Dollar Index chart setups:

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Technical outlook:

The US Dollar Index is supposedly still providing a simple wave count as compared to its counterpart EURUSD. The rally from 91.00 through 95.00/20 levels was unfolded into 5 waves and hence impulse. The subsequent drop after that has found support at the fibonacci 0.382 of the entire rally as seen here. The pair could still extend its rally through 94.50 levels before finding strong resistance and then drop towards 92.60 levels which is fibonacci 0.618 support of the earlier rally. Looking at the entire structure, the US Dollar Index is producing a probable down gartley, within the larger up gartley and hence a classic example of trends and counter trends. Price resistance should be strong around 95.00 levels while support is strong around 92.60 levels respectively.

Trading plan:

1. Remain long from last week with risk below 93.40 targeting 94.50/60

2. Then short with risk above 95.20, targeting 92.80.

Fundamental outlook:

Please watch out for Mr Draghi's speech at Brussels at 09:00 AM and 1100 AM EST today.

Good luck!

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Daily analysis of GBP/JPY for November 20, 2017

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Overview

The GBP/JPY pair lost its positive momentum, which forces it to provide new sideways trading, approaching the support at 147.35. The stability of the moving average 55 near this support increases its strength against the current trading, which decreases the possibility of suffering new unexpected losses. Therefore, we will keep waiting for gathering new positive momentum that allows it to renew the bullish attempts, targeting 150.00 level initially reaching to 151.50 in the upcoming period. The expected trading range for today is between 147.40 and 150.00

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Daily analysis of USD/JPY for November 20, 2017

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Overview

The USD/JPY pair resumed its trading lower after confirming a break of 23.6% Fibonacci correction level at 113.00 to reach the second correctional level at 111.90 which represents 38.2% Fibonacci correction level for the rise from 107.31 to 114.73. This urges caution from the nearest trading as breaking this level will push the price to decline deeper with a downward target of 111.00 directly. The EMA50 forms continuous negative pressure against the price, which supports the chances of extending the bearish wave in the upcoming sessions, especially after breaking the correctional bearish channel's support that appears on the chart. This gives us an idea of the bearish trend for today. We take into consideration that breaching 113.00 will stop the current negative pressure and push the price to regain its main bullish track again. The expected trading range for today is between 111.00 support and 113.00 resistance.

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Daily analysis of Gold for November 20, 2017

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Overview

Gold price succeeded to reach our first expected target at 1,299.20, showing that a slight bearish bias is now affected by stochastic negativity. The metal is waiting to gain enough positive momentum to push the price to breach the mentioned level and open the way towards 1,321.50 that represents our next main target. In general, we still suggest the bullish trend in the upcoming sessions on condition that the price holds above 1,281.17. Breaking this level will push the price to test 1,263.15 areas again before any new attempt to rise. The expected trading range for today is between 1,281.00 support and 1,305.00 resistance.

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Daily analysis of Silver for November 20, 2017

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Overview

Silver price succeeded to reach our first target at 17.43, reinforcing the expectations of a further bullish trend on the intraday- and short-term basis. We are waiting until this level is breached to confirm that the bullish wave is extended towards 18.30. Please be aware that the EMA50 provides the positive support to the price. Therefore, we will continue to suggest the bullish trend in the upcoming sessions, conditioned by the price stability above 16.56. The expected trading range for today is between 17.00 support and 17.43 resistance.

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Bitcoin analysis for 20/11/2017

In mid-November 2017, Zimbabwe's military made a coup, which led to a further rise in Bitcoin's prices on local exchanges. Army Zimbabwe attacked Harare on November 14 after a week of confrontation with President Robert Mugabe's administration. According to the army, this movement was aimed at preventing a civil war. It is worth adding that Mugabe has been the head of the country since 1980. On November 15, in the capital of the country, Harare, the price of Bitcoin was $ 13,010, an increase of 10%. Based on data from the Golix website, the current price of Bitcoin is $ 14,000, almost double the international price.

Due to the political crisis, the demand for Bitcoin in the country has risen sharply. One of the reasons for this situation is the lack of national currency. In 2009, after the hyperinflation, which took place in 2008, the government as a legal means of payment has adopted several currencies such as the US Dollar and the South African Rand. According to Golix's co-owner, Taurai Chinyamakobv, Bitcoin prices are determined by supply and demand and be even higher if the situation in Zimbabwe get's worse.

Let's now take a look at the Bitcoin technical picture at the H4 time frame. The market has made a new marginal higher high at the level of $8,077 but the target for the wave v is projected at the level of $8,365. The clear and visible divergence between the price and the momentum oscillator support the view. The next important technical support is the weekly pivot point at the level of $7,423.

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Trading plan for 20/11/2017

Trading plan for 20/11/2017:

The new week starts with the euro depreciation in response to overnight reports from Germany about the break of coalition talks.The press service has concluded that the impasse in the talks could lead to accelerated choices. EUR/USD lost at the start of 50 pips and dropped to 1.1730. On the other hand, JPY and CHF remain strong, highlighting a lack of appetite for risk. Still, on Friday USD/JPY broke down and now oscillates at 112. USD/CHF fell below 0.99. The stock market is reporting a grim mood. Nikkei225 is losing 0.6% today, while in China, Hang Seng is only trying to go to zero at the end of the session.

On Monday, 20th of November, the event calendar is light in economic news releases. Germany will post PPI Index data and Bundesbank Monthly Report data. The US will release CB Leading Index data. There are some speeches scheduled for today from ECB President Mario Draghi, BOE Deputy Governor for Markets and Banking Sir David Ramsden, and RBA Assistant Governor Michele Bullock.

EUR/USD analysis for 20/11/2017:

The likelihood of new elections in Germany has increased as coalition talks failed last night when the liberal FDP walked away from the negotiations. For five weeks, Angela Merkel's CDU, the Bavarian sister party CSU, the liberal FDP and the Greens have negotiated behind closed doors. Almost every day, key politicians showed up on a balcony, providing pictures and motives for journalists. Last night, these talks ended with a failure. The liberal FDP walked away from the talks, with FDP leader Christian Lindner saying that "it's better not to govern, than to govern badly". He added that party leaders had failed to build "a foundation of trust". This probably is the best summary of why the talks for a so-called Jamaica coalition failed: next to political differences, personal and atmospheric tensions had overshadowed the talks from the beginning onwards.

For the German economy, the collapsed talks will probably have no immediate impact in the short run, but might weaken the Euro across the board. German politics should not waste too much time if they don't want to put the economy's future at risk.

Let's now take a look at the EUR/USD technical picture at the H4 time frame. The market bounced after the golden trend line had been tested from the upside and now it looks like the bulls are heading to higher to test the resistance at the level of 1.1823. The key level to the upside remains at the level of 1.1880. The key level to the downside is at 1.1713.

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Market Snapshot: USD/JPY felt out of a channel

The price of USD/JPY has fallen out of the downward channel and now is trading just below the lower boundary line around the level of 112.27. The nearest technical resistance is seen at the level of 112.27 and 112.60, the next technical support is seen at the level of 111.61. Please notice the oversold market conditions.

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Market Snapshot: Fake breakout on Gold?

The price of gold has broken out of the channel to rally as high as $1,298. Nevertheless, the price reversed and now is testing the technical support at the level of $1,290. If the test will be successful, then the bulls might push the price higher towards the most important technical resistance zone between the levels of $1,298 - $1,305. Otherwise, the market will be back to the channel zone.

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Wave analysis of USDX for November 20, 2017

The Dollar index has stopped at the 38% Fibonacci retracement support as we noted in our latest analysis. This is a good support are where we could at least see a trade-able bounce. The Dollar index could still make a new lower low towards 93 before the bounce, but overall we should not ignore the bullish alternative wave counts.

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Blue lines - bearish channel

The Dollar index has broken out of the bearish channel. Is is a first bullish sign for a possible bounce. Price is below the Ichimoku cloud. Resistance is at 94.50. The decline so far is corrective in three waves, as the rise from September lows can be seen as impulsive. This implies that another leg higher is expected to follow.

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The fact that price has stopped where it has, has increased the chances of another leg higher dramatically. The downward move and rejection at 95 could very well be wave B while we should now expect a wave C higher towards the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement or the Ichimoku cloud resistance. The target area would be 97-98. Bears should be very cautious.The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Wave analysis of gold for November 20, 2017

The Gold price has once again reached the upper boundary of the short-term trading range it is in since late October. The price action, however, does not look impulsive so far as the form of the rise is full of overlapping three-wave structures. This implies that this upward move is part of a bigger downward correction.

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Blue lines - trading range

The Gold price has been making three-wave moves since late October lows. This is not a bullish sign. Support is at $1,277 and resistance at $1,294. Gold price could move towards $1,300 but I continue to believe that the downward correction from $1,350 is not over yet.

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Red line - resistance

Blue line- support

Magenta line - long-term resistance

The Gold price has broken above both the tenkan- and kijun-sen indicators and the downward sloping red trend line. However, the most important resistance is the Daily cloud. A rejection here will support my view that a new low towards $1,250 is needed in order to complete the corrective phase.

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Breaking forecast 11/20/2017

Breaking forecast 11/20/2017Merkel can not form a government: EURUSD is ready for a decline.The main news on Monday: German Chancellor Merkel announced a failure in the formation of a coalition government.The euro fell to 1.1725 and is prepared for a new fall.Sell EURUSD from 1.1760.In the case of unexpected news that everything has changed and Merkel will still be able to form a government - buy the euro from 1.1825.In case of continuation of the political crisis in Germany and the announcement of new elections - the euro will fall to 1.1550 and selling for breakthrough of 1.1550 are possible.

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Elliott wave analysis of EUR/NZD for November 20, 2017

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Wave summary:

We have seen a nice rally above 1.7216, but something is not right... The momentum indicators are not confirming the rally, which had us review the rally from 1.5227. The rally from 1.5227 to 1.7408 could be counted as a complete impulsive rally (see above) If this is correct, then a deeper corrective decline closer to at least 1.6614 and possibly even closer to 1.6298 should be expected in wave ii before the next rally higher.

Short-term a break below minor resistance at 1.7100 will favor this outcome.

R3: 1.7408

R2: 1.7325

R1: 1.7217

Pivot: 1.7100

S1: 1.7058

S2: 1.6916

S3: 1.6805

Trading recommendation:

We are long EUR from 1.6770 and we will move our stop higher to 1.7085

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Elliott wave analysis of EUR/JPY for November 20, 2017

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Wave summary:

EUR/JPY has finally broken clearly below the short-term important support at 131.60 to confirm that the (D) of the huge triangle consolidation has completed at 134.50 and wave (E) now is developing towards the ideal target near 123.43.

The former support at 131.60 has now turned into resistance and will ideally cap the upside for more downside pressure towards 128.91 and below.

R3: 133.13

R2: 132.75

R1: 132.30

Pivot: 131.60

S1: 131.14

S2: 130.81

S3: 130.39

Trading recommendation:

We sold EUR at 133.10 and will move our stop to break-even.

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Fundamental Analysis of EUR/USD for November 20, 2017

EUR/USD has been quite bearish recently after bouncing off the event price area of 1.1850. Due to recent Germany political issue, the Eurozone has been affected which lead to volatility in the pair and weakness of EUR against USD recently. ECB President Draghi has been quite positive with the long-term growth and overcoming the current obstacles. Today EUR German PPI report is going to be published which is expected to decrease to 0.2% from the previous value of 0.3% and German Buba Monthly report is going to be published which will include the current and future analysis of the economy on a financial institutions viewpoint which is expected to be neutral in nature. Moreover, today ECB President Draghi is going to speak today as well on future policies and interest rates which is expected to be hawkish in nature. On the USD side, today we do not have any economic report or event to have an impact on the market but this week Core Durable Goods Orders, Unemployment Claims and FOMC Meeting is going to be held which is expected to be in favor of the currency which may result to further gain against EUR in the coming days. To sum up, today ECB might be a positive push for the EUR if everything goes well as expected which might result to further correction in the pair or else any negative outcome will result to further gain on the USD side ahead of the upcoming interest rate hike on December.

Now let us look at the technical view, the price is currently residing above the dynamic level of 20 EMA and showing some bearish pressure after being rejected off the 1.1850 resistance area. The price is currently expected to push lower towards 1.1660 and later towards 1.1300 support area in the coming days. As the price remains below 1.1850 with a daily close the bearish pressure is expected to continue further.

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EUR/JPY on strong support, time to play a corrective bounce

The price is testing strong support at 131.43 (Horizontal swing low support, bullish price action) and we expect to see a corrective bounce pushing price up to at least 132.20 resistance (Fibonacci retracement).

Stochastic (34,5,3) is seeing strong support above 6.6% where we expect a corresponding bounce from.

Buy above 131.43. Stop loss is at 131.02. Take profit is at 132.20.

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AUD/JPY testing major support, look for a long term bounce

The price is now approaching major support at 84.57 (Fibonacci retracement, horizontal overlap support) and we expect to see a bounce above this level to push the price up to at least 86.67 resistance (Fibonacci retracement horizontal pullback resistance).

Stochastic (34,5,3) is seeing strong support above 6.1% where we expect a bounce from.

Buy above 84.57. Stop loss is at 83.63. Take profit is at 86.67.

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Technical analysis of EUR/USD for Nov 20, 2017

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When the European market opens, some Economic Data will be released, such as German Buba Monthly Report, German PPI m/m, and the ECB President Draghi Speaks. The US will release the Economic Data, too, such as CB Leading Index m/m, so, amid the reports, EUR/USD will move in a low to medium volatility during this day.

TODAY'S TECHNICAL LEVEL:

Breakout BUY Level: 1.1801.

Strong Resistance:1.1794.

Original Resistance: 1.1783.

Inner Sell Area: 1.1772.

Target Inner Area: 1.1744.

Inner Buy Area: 1.1716.

Original Support: 1.1705.

Strong Support: 1.1694.

Breakout SELL Level: 1.1687.

Disclaimer: Trading Forex (foreign exchange) on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.

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Technical analysis of USD/JPY for Nov 20, 2017

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In Asia, Japan will release the Trade Balance data, and the US will release some Economic Data, such as CB Leading Index m/m. So, there is a probability the USD/JPY will move with a low to medium volatility during this day.

TODAY'S TECHNICAL LEVEL:

Resistance. 3: 112.71.

Resistance. 2: 112.49.

Resistance. 1: 112.27.

Support. 1: 112.00.

Support. 2: 111.78.

Support. 3: 111.56.

Disclaimer: Trading Forex (foreign exchange) on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Daily analysis of major pairs for November 20, 2017

EUR/USD: This pair went upwards last week, gaining 200 pips and testing the resistance line at 1.1850. Price has retraced a bit, but it could go upwards again to test that resistance line (possibly breaching it to the upside). There are support lines at 1.1700 and 1.1650, which would try to impede any bearish attempts along the way.

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USD/CHF: This currency trading instrument dropped this week. It tried to go upwards on Thursday, but it came down again on Friday, thus emphasizing the bearish bias on the market. This week, further bearish movements may enable price to reach the support levels at 0.9850 and 0.9800.

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GBP/USD: The Cable is essentially neutral and that has been going on for about 4 weeks. For the neutrality to end, the price would need to go above the distribution territory at 1.3300; or go below the accumulation territory at 1.3050. As long as price hovers between the two aforementioned boundaries, the bias on the market would remain neutral.

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USD/JPY: The USD/JPY became clearly bearish last week, with further bearish movement on Friday. This has resulted in a Bearish Confirmation Pattern in the market, and the demand level at 111.50 could be tested. However, there would be a rally before the end of this week, which may threaten the bearish bias.

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EUR/JPY: This cross went upwards last week, moving briefly above the supply zone at 133.50. Had price been able to stay above the supply zone, things would have remained bullish. But price moved downwards by 160 pips from the high of last week (133.87) and closed at 132.15. Further bearish movement is possible before price makes a U-turn this week.

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Daily analysis of USDX for November 20, 2017

The index remains bearish below the 200 SMA at H1 chart and the support level of 93.55 is still helping to contain further bearish advance in the short-term. If that level gives up, then we might expect a leg lower to test the 93.12 zone. To the upside, the 200 SMA at H1 chart is the nearest resistance to pierce.

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H1 chart's resistance levels: 93.98 / 94.60

H1 chart's support levels: 93.55 / 93.12

Trading recommendations for today: Based on the H1 chart, place sell (short) orders only if the USD Index breaks with a bearish candlestick; the support level is at 93.55, take profit is at 93.12 and stop loss is at 93.97.

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Daily analysis of GBP/USD for November 20, 2017

GBP/USD is finding dynamic support around the 200 SMA zone and it's looking to test fresh highs across the board. However, bears are still trying to push lower to the pair, and it's something that is feasible at this point because a pullback should push it towards the support level of 1.3037. To the upside, the nearest resistance lies at 1.3309.

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H1 chart's resistance levels: 1.3201 / 1.3309

H1 chart's support levels: 1.3037 / 1.2880

Trading recommendations for today: Based on the H1 chart, sell (short) orders only if the GBP/USD pair breaks a bearish candlestick; the support level is at 1.3037, take profit is at 1.2880 and stop loss is at 1.3193.

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The dollar is looking for a new driver

The dollar finished the week in different directions. It withstood the pace of strengthening against commodity currencies but noticeably sagged against defensive assets.

There are several reasons, as usual. The expected inflation report on Wednesday was slightly higher than forecast and core inflation rose to 1.8% for the first time in 5 months. However, there is still no confidence in a sustainable recovery. What's disappointing was the report on retail sales for October where growth was only by 0.2% against 1.9% a month earlier. Without taking into account cars, the growth was even symbolic. Weak consumer activity does not give confidence that inflation will accelerate.

As per the report published on Wednesday by the Treasury, the inflow of foreign capital into the US is gradually increasing. The break occurred in December last year, after the victory of the Donald Trump in the presidential elections. The demand for US Treasury bills began to recover, which indicates the growing level of expectations associated with the implementation of reforms.

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The question of trust at the current stage looks somewhat unusual. On Thursday, the House of Representatives of Congress approved a bill on tax reform in the US. This step was to inspire bulls in the dollar to reach new heights. However, the opposite happened. The demand for gold and defensive assets increased sharply despite the fact that the overall macroeconomic background remained generally positive. The reason for this is that, despite the victory in the lower house, the risks of non-passage of the law through the Congress have increased. The House of Representatives adopted a reform plan with a vote of 227/205. No Democrat voted for the bill and moreover, 13 Republicans also voted against it. This means that there is no consensus among Trump's associates on the party of unity. The approval by the Senate is thus, jeopardized despite Republicans having a slight advantage in the upper house of Congress with 52 votes against 48.

The market took this result as a threat of growth in political risks, which led to an increase in demand for defensive assets.

As for the economic risks here, in fact, no changes are observed. According to the CME futures market data, the forecast for the growth rate of the Fed rate is that there will be no changes. Investors take into account the 50% chance that in March 2018, the rate will be raised again. This means that the market sees no macroeconomic threats to the Fed's plans.

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The same position is also voiced in the results of the annual meeting of the IMF, which marks a steady recovery in the US economy. However, this did not prevent the revision of the forecast for GDP growth rates of the US in the direction of decline. This step of the IMF explains that there was a need for correction in US fiscal policy because reducing taxes will result in the budget losing about 1.5 trillion in revenues over 10 years. For sustainable development, they need to be found elsewhere.

The key day of the coming week is Wednesday. A report on orders for durable goods, which accurately reflects consumer activity and the level of production loading, will be published. Forecasts are bad. It is expected to indicate a reduction in the volume of orders to 0.5% versus 2.2% in September. Weak expectations will put pressure on the dollar. The minutes of the FOMC meeting on November 1 will also be published on Wednesday, which is unlikely to have a significant impact on market sentiment. The last meeting of the Committee did not bring any new information and from the protocols, the markets also do not expect any revelations.

In general, the dollar remains to be the favorite. There are no threats to the Fed's adjustment so the spread of yields will grow, regardless of any political risks. The defensive currencies will need to find some additional arguments for it to continue growing. In general, the markets can spend a week in a sideways movement since no important events that can dramatically change the mood of investors are expected.

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The Euro used its chance

Eurozone

The euro took full advantage of the rise of political risks in the US when it passed the tax reform plan through Congress, restoring half of the losses from the reduction of the last one and a half months, but in order to question the reversal of the trend to the south, something more important is required.

Inflation in the eurozone continues to be low. The price growth in October was only 0.1%, the while growth of the core indicator slowed to 0.9% year-on-year. The weak indicators call into question the ECB's willingness to continue the policy of exiting the soft monetary policy.

The head of the ECB, Mario Draghi, speaking on Friday at a conference in Frankfurt, said that the low-interest policy does not harm the income of European banks that have remained stable over the past two years and, moreover, added that the asset repurchase program can be continued after September 2018, "if it is necessary".

The euro, therefore, immediately lost the driver to growth and went into the lateral range. Most likely, it will continue to be cautious about the direction of the movement and at the beginning of the new week due to the lack of significant macroeconomic releases. On Thursday, the report PMI Markit on the eurozone countries, the forecasts are favorable, with the production index very close to the highs of the last nine years, the service sector index lags behind insignificantly.

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Given that the earlier reports released earlier by Ifo and ZEW indicated further growth of consumer confidence, the growth of Markit indices should be expected, which in turn can support the euro.

Also on Thursday, the minutes of the ECB meeting of October 26 will be published. In the light of Draghi's latest comments, the market will be looking for an answer to the question whether the probability of announcing the exact date of completion of the asset buy-back program was announced at the meeting, as the answer to this question may change the long-term expectations for the euro.

For a break above 1.1850 euros more weighty reasons are required. More likely is the consolidation at the achieved levels with the resumption of the activity of bears and the move towards support level of 1.16.

United Kingdom

The report on retail sales published on Thursday could not provide the pound any support, despite the fact that the dollar was exposed to considerable pressure. Retail sales increased by 0.3% in October; this was slightly higher than market expectations, but on an annual basis, it showed a decline of 0.3%, meaning consumer activity continues to be very low. Despite the fact that prices grew quite confidently, the physical volume of goods sold remained at the levels of a year ago, which indicates certain problems in the consumer sector.

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Oil

Oil by the close of the week resumed growth, responding to the reduction of the threat of Venezuela's default and the weekly report of Baker Hughes, according to which the rise in the number of active drilling rigs stopped. The current level of quotes , apparently, by the shale industry is perceived as insufficient to significantly resume investments, and without new drilling wells it is difficult to keep production at current levels, given the high rate of their depletion.

The threat of deep correction has decreased, but the chance to update the two-year high, on the contrary, has increased. The market will catch the insider about the upcoming meeting of OPEC +, one must assume that the general background remains favorable for oil.

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