BITCOIN Analysis for November 14, 2017

Bitcoin has been quite corrective recently after being bounced off the $5,500 support area. The price has been struggling to surge higher since yesterday and break above the $6,700 price level which will break the resistance to proceed much higher in the future. After the drastic fall, the impulsive bullish pressure indicated that the bulls are still in the market and the downward move was not quite a market crash for the cryptocurrency. As of the current market situation, the price is forming a bullish flag at the edge of the resistance area of $6,500 to $6,700 which is expected to break above with an aim of proceeding higher towards $7,000 price area and later towards $8,000. As the price remains above $5,500 price level, the bullish bias is expected to continue further.

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Bitcoin analysis for November 15, 2017

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The Bitcoin (BTC) has been trading sideways at the price of $6.532. Craig Wright, the man who famously claimed to be Satoshi Nakamoto, is back in the news again. This time he's weighed into the bitcoin scaling debate, which is becoming increasingly politicized. In a post entitled "Scaling Bitcoin and what some will do to stop this", he refutes sceptics who believe that bitcoin can't scale to handle 20,000 transactions a second. Technical picture looks bearish.

Trading recommendations:

According to the 30M time frame, I found broken upward trendline in the background and potential intraday double top formation, which is sign that buying looks risky. My advice is to watch for potential selling opportunties. The downward targets are set at the price of $6.295 (pivot level) and at the price of $5.530 (pivot support 1).

Support/Resistance

$6.295 – Pivot level

$6.953 – Pivot resistance

$5.830 – Pivot support

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Global macro overview for 14/11/2017

The ECB hosted the conference "Challenges in Policy Effectiveness, Responsibility, and Reputation Communication" starts today in Frankfurt, so the market participants are wondering whether the outcome from this event will be similar to the earlier one from Sintra, Italy from July this year. It is difficult to anticipate the outcome, but it looks like the central bankers are now in a slightly different situation than before. Firstly, most central banks have outlined their path in recent times. This is a different situation since this July, when for many institutions their future strategy was unclear or we were at the threshold of a change of attitude. The ECB has now drawn up its plans for the QE program by September 2018. The decision was received as dovish, but the euro-related decline was not severe. Thus, Draghi does not have to strive to stabilize the course and, on the other hand, cares not to lead to more appreciation. As a consequence, the neutral tone should dominate. In the case of the Bank of Japan, the situation is even simpler, as here the message indicates the status quo for many months yet. Janet Yellen is bound by the fact that he leaves office in February 2018, so it would be inappropriate to comment on next year's interest rate path. And if it opted for the December hike, its words will not change much for the market valuation of 90%. Carney, chairman of the Bank of England, has the biggest leeway, who announced at the beginning of the month a rate hike but packaged in an exceptionally high tone of dovishness. BoE would like to stop the pound sterling and fuel inflation, but promising a continuation of the hike will threaten the reputation of the economy, as the economy does not allow it.

In conclusion, none of the chairpersons should go out of the way of communication, and on the other hand, events like today's Frankfurt are the main source of surprises.

Let's now take a look at the USD/JPY technical picture at the H4 time frame. The price has managed to break out of above the black trend line, but so far no new high was made, so the consolidation zone between the levels of 112.94 - 114.72.was maintained. The move up might be a simple bounce from the oversold conditions as the momentum indicator is still hovering around its fifty level. The bias remains neutral-to-bullish as long as any important levels are not violated.

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Global macro overview for 14/11/2017

The third quarter Preliminary German GDP data has beat the market expectations by 0.2% on a quarterly basis (0.8% vs. 0.6%) and by 0.3% on a yearly basis ( 2.3% vs. 2.0%). The detailed growth components will only be released at the end of the month but based on monthly data, the economy continues to advance. Growth was driven by three main sectors: public consumption, investment and net exports. Only the construction sector figures were worse than expected. Even if the German economy would stagnate in the final quarter of the year, GDP growth for the entire year would still come in at 2.4%; the highest reading since 2011.

Germany's economic success story goes on and on and on. Since the second quarter of 2009, the German economy has grown at a quarterly average of 0.5%. Out of the last 34 quarters, only three quarters recorded negative GDP growth. The German economy is currently showing its best performance over such a long period since the mid-1990s. And it does not look that anything is going to stop it anytime soon, which will eventually be another fundamental reason to strengthen the Euro in the mid-term across the board.

Let's now take a look at EUR/JPY technical picture at the H4 time frame. The market remains closed in a narrow consolidation zone between the levels of 131.39 - 132.24. Currently, the price is testing the technical resistance at the level of 132.24 and in a case of a breakout higher, the next technical resistance is seen at the level of 134.40.

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Analysis of Gold for November 14, 2017

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Recently, Gold has been trading downwards. As I expected, the price tested the level of $1,270.00. According to the 30M time – frame, I found broken bearish flag in the background, which is sign that buying looks risky. I also found successful testing of supply trendline (downward channel), which is another sign of weakness. My advice is to watch for potential selling opportunities. I placed Fibonacci expansion to find potential downward targets. I got FE 100% at the price of $1,265.15 and FE 161.8% at the price of $1.256.00.

Resistance levels:

R1: $1,280.76

R2: $1,283.27

R3: $1,286.76

Support levels:

S1: $1,274.78

S2: $1.271.27

S3: $1.268.76

Trading recommendations for today: watch for potential selling opportunities.

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GBP/USD analysis for November 14, 2017

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Recently, the GBP/USD has been trading sideways at the price of 1.3104. According to the 15M time – frame, I found that price is trading below the pivot level (1.3119), which is a sign that sellers are in control. I also found the successful rejection of supply trendline, which is another sign of weakness. My advice is to watch for potential selling opportunities. The downward targets are set at the price of 1.3060 and at the price of 1.3000.

Resistance levels:

R1: 1.3177

R2: 1.3238

R3: 1.3295

Support levels:

S1: 1.3060

S2: 1.3000

S3: 1.2941

Trading recommendations for today: watch for potential selling opportunities.

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Technical analysis of USD/JPY for November 14, 2017

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USD/JPY is expected to trade with a bullish outlook. The pair is rebounding from 113.20 (lows of November 10 and 13). The rising 50-period moving average is playing a support role. The relative strength index is above its neutrality level at 50 and calls for a bounce.

Hence, as long as 113.25 holds on the downside, look for a further rise with targets at 113.80 and 114.05 in extension.

Alternatively, if the price moves in the opposite direction, a long position is recommended below 113.25 with a target at 113.05.

Chart Explanation: The black line shows the pivot point. The current price above the pivot point indicates a bullish position, while the price below the pivot point is a signal for a short position. The red lines show the support levels and the green line indicates the resistance level. These levels can be used to enter and exit trades.

Strategy: BUY, Stop Loss: 113.25, Take Profit: 113.80

Resistance levels: 113.80, 114.05 and 114.50 Support Levels: 113.05, 112.85, 112.50

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Technical analysis of USD/CHF for November 14, 2017

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All our targets which we predicted in Yesterday's analysis has been hit. The pair is capped by a bearish trend line, which confirms a bearish outlook. The downward momentum is further reinforced by both declining 20-period and 50-period moving averages. The relative strength index lacks upward momentum.

Therefore, as long as 0.9975 is not surpassed, a further downside to 0.9870 and even to 0.9830 seems more likely to occur.

Chart Explanation: The black line shows the pivot point. The present price above the pivot point indicates a bullish position, and the price below the pivot points indicates a short position. The red lines show the support levels and the green line indicates the resistance levels. These levels can be used to enter and exit trades.

Strategy: SELL, Stop Loss: 0.9870, Take Profit: 0.9830

Resistance levels: 1.0000, 1.0020, and 1.0045

Support levels: 0.9870, 0.9830, and 0.9800

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Technical analysis of GBP/JPY for November 14, 2017

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GBP/JPY is expected to trade with a bullish outlook. The pair managed to hold above its key level at 148.40, and the process of higher highs and lows remains intact on the prices. Even though a continuation of the consolidation cannot be ruled out at the current stage, its extent should be limited by 148.40.

As long as this threshold is not broken, a further advance is expected to 148 and 147.75 in extension.

Therefore, as long as 148.95 holds on the upside, look for a new decline to 148.00 and even to 147.75 in extension.

Alternatively, if the price moves in the direction opposite to the forecast, a SHORT position is recommended below 148.40 with the target at 148.00.

Strategy: BUY, Stop Loss: 148.40, Take Profit: 149.45

Chart Explanation: the black line shows the pivot point. The price above the pivot point indicates long positions; and when it is below the pivot points, it indicates short positions. The red lines show the support levels and the green line indicates the resistance levels. These levels can be used to enter and exit trades.

Resistance levels: 149.45, 149.70 and 150.20

Support levels: 148.00, 147.75, and 147.15

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Technical analysis of NZD/USD for November 14, 2017

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All our targets which we predicted in yesterday's analysis have been hit. NZD/USD is under pressure . The pair remains in a down trend, capped by its falling 20-period and 50-period moving averages. The horizontal key resistance at 0.6890 maintains the strong selling pressure on the prices. In addition, the relative strength index remains weak below its neutrality area at 50.

Therefore, as long as 0.6890 holds on the upside, the risk of a slide below 0.6835 remains high.

The black line shows the pivot point. Currently, the price is above the pivot point, which indicates long positions. If it remains below the pivot point, it will indicate short positions. The red lines are showing the support levels and the green line is indicating the resistance levels. These levels can be used to enter and exit trades.

Resistance levels: 0.6905, 0.6935, and 0.6975

Support levels: 0.6835, 0.6805, and 0.6765

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Technical analysis of NZD/USD for November 14, 2017

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Overview:

  • The NZD/USD pair is still trading around the area of 0.6890 and 0.6860. Thus, it should be noted that the resistance is established at the level of 0.6890 which represents a pivot point. The NZD/USD pair is showing signs of force following a breakout of the highest price of 0.6860. The price has been in a bearish channel this week. This is confirmed by the RSI indicator signaling that we are still in a bullish trending market. The NZD/USD pair continues to move downwards from the level of 0.6890. As long as the trend is above the price of 0.6890, the market is still in an uptrend. The trend is still strong below the moving average. The NZD/USD pair didn't make any significant movements in the last two days. The market is indicating a bearish opportunity above the mentioned resistance levels. The bullish outlook remains valid as long as the 100 EMA heads for the downside. Therefore, strong resistance will be found around the spot of 0.6890 providing a clear signal to sell with a target seen at 0.6821. If the trend breaks the first support at 0.6821, the pair will move downwards continuing the bearish trend development to the level of 0.6740 in order to test the daily support 2. It should be noted that the major support is seen at the levels of 0.6821 and 0.6740. However, the stop loss should be placed at the price of 0.6900.
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Technical analysis of USD/CHF for November 14, 2017

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Overview:

  • The support level is seen at the price of 0.9938 on the H4 chart. Since last week, the trend of USD/CHF pair movement was controversial as it took place in a narrow sideways channel, the market showed signs of instability. Amid the previous events, the price is still moving between the levels of 0.9938 and 1.0037. Also, the daily resistance and support are seen at the levels of 1.0037 and 0.9938 respectively. Therefore, it is recommended to be cautious while placing orders in this area. So, we need to wait until the sideways channel has completed. Last month, the market moved from its bottom at 0.9938 and continued to rise towards the top of 1.0037. Today, in the one-hour chart, the current rise will remain within a framework of correction. However, if the pair fails to pass through the level of 1.0037, the market will indicate a bearish opportunity below the strong resistance level of 1.0037 (the level of 1.0037 coincides with the double top too). Since there is nothing new in this market, it is not bullish yet. Sell deals are recommended below the level of 1.0037 with the first target at 1.0037. If the trend breaks the support level of 1.0037, the pair is likely to move downwards continuing the development of a bearish trend to the level 0.9880.
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Bitcoin analysis for 14/11/2017

Every success of Bitcoin is related to the predictions of its fall. Over the past few years, many experts have longed for the end of Bitcoin for various reasons, from the lack of real value to the financial pyramid. This time, the indication fell on the character of the cryptocurrency, who was always considered her greatest asset - anonymity. Fredric Oudea, CEO of SocGen Bank, is the next person who tries to predict the future of Bitcoin. In his opinion, the possibility of anonymous use of BTC is a source of reinforcement of criminal activity. Bitcoin can be used, for example, for money laundering or terrorist financing. According to Oudea, this would be a sufficient argument for governments to deny cryptocurrency. At a Web Summit conference, Oudea said: "The benefit (of using BTC) is to provide anonymity to those who make the transaction. I do not see the future when I see how governments fight money laundering, tax evasion, terrorist financing. The anonymity of the transaction is a problem that will exert pressure on Bitcoin "

What is causing most doubts in CEO SocGen's statement is that Bitcoin is not really anonymous. In the context of the most popular cryptanalyst, there is talk of "pseudo-anonymity". Unless your personal address is closely related to a particular person, all your transactions can be monitored. Criminals could not simply, with impunity, shed money. Therefore the words of Oudea'i are abusive.

Let's now take a look at the Bitcoin technical picture at the H4 time frame. From the low at the level of $5,534 the market has managed to retrace 50% and currently is trading close to the level of $6,695, just above the weekly pivot. This move might be labeled as the wave B or a part of the wave B correction, so there is another leg down coming up shortly. The key resistance remains at the level of $6,982.

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Intraday technical levels and trading recommendations for EUR/USD for November 14, 2017

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Monthly Outlook

In January 2015, the EUR/USD pair moved below the major demand levels near 1.2050-1.2100 (multiple previous bottoms set in July 2012 and June 2010). Hence, a long-term bearish target was projected toward 0.9450.

In March 2015, EUR/USD bears challenged the monthly demand level around 1.0500, which had been previously reached in August 1997.

In the longer term, the level of 0.9450 remains a projected target if any monthly candlestick achieves bearish closure below the depicted monthly demand level of 1.0500.

However, the EUR/USD pair has been trapped within the depicted consolidation range (1.0500-1.1450) until the current bullish breakout was executed above 1.1450.

The current bullish breakout above 1.1450 allowed a quick bullish advance towards 1.2100 where recent evidence of bearish rejection was expressed (Note the previous Monthly candlestick of September).

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Daily Outlook

In January 2017, the previous downtrend was reversed when the Inverted Head and Shoulders pattern was established around 1.0500. Since then, evident bullish momentum has been expressed on the chart.

As anticipated, the ongoing bullish momentum allowed the EUR/USD pair to pursue further bullish advance towards 1.1415-1.1520 (Previous Daily Supply-Zone).

The daily supply zone failed to pause the ongoing bullish momentum. Instead, evident bullish breakout was expressed towards the price level of 1.2100 where the depicted Head and Shoulders reversal pattern was expressed.

If the recent bearish breakout persists below 1.1700 (Neckline of the reversal pattern), a quick bearish decline should be expected towards the price zone of 1.1415-1.1520 (Initial targets for the depicted H&S pattern).

Bearish target for the depicted Head and Shoulders pattern extends towards 1.1350. However, to pursue towards the mentioned target level, significant bearish pressure is needed to be applied against the mentioned zone (1.1415-1.1520).

Trade Recommendations

Recent price action around the price zone of 1.1520-1.1415 indicates evident bullish recovery and a possible short-term BUY entry. This scenario remains valid as long as the recent low around 1.1550 remains unbroken.

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Trading plan for 14/11/2017

The major currencies consolidate on Tuesday, with the exception of the NZD, which loses for no apparent reason. USD/JPY reached 113.60, the EUR/USD hit 1.1670. Pound managed to pull back after Monday due to political factors, although today in the morning we can see a return of pressure and the GBP/USD down to 1.31. Outside FX, the stock market in Asia is flat, similarly oil, and gold is slightly losing.

On Tuesday 14th of November, the event calendar is busy with the important news releases and various central bank representatives speeches. During the London session, Germany will issue GDP preliminary, ZEW Economic Sentiment and Consumer Price Index - EU Harmonised data, Switzerland will post Producer and Import Prices data, the UK will present Consumer Price Index data and Eurozone will post ZEW Economic Sentiment, revised GDP and Industrial Production data. During the US session, the PPI and Core PPI data will be published. The speakers of today are: BOE Governor Mark Carney, ECB President Mario Draghi, BOJ Governor Haruhiko Kuroda and Federal Reserve Chairperson Janet Yellen.

EURUSD analysis for 14/11/2017:

After a sleepy Monday, it was time for a real canon of events. As many as 11 members of the leading central banks will take the floor today with the main attention of the ECB, Fed, BoE and BoJ presidents. Unplanned comments are always possible, so it is worth to pay attention to sudden turnarounds. In addition, emotions can provide GDP from Euroland, CPI from Great Britain, ZEW from Germany and PPI from the USA.Plenty of the data from the Eurozone might impact the price of EUR/USD today.

Let's now take a look at the EUR/USD technical picture at the H4 time frame. The market has managed to break out above the technical resistance at the level of 1.1690 and it looks like it is heading towards the 61% Fibo at the level of 1.1728. There is an important technical resistance zone just below this level, so any breakout higher might be the first clue of a trend reversal. Nevertheless, to continue upward, the market would have to break out above the golden trend line as well, so it will be a tough nut to crack for the bulls.

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Market Snapshot: NZD/USD sell-off continues

The price of NZD/USD failed to break out above the golden trend line resistance at the level of 0.6970 and it is being sold since then. The technical support at the level of 0.6882 had been violated already and now the price is getting closer to the next support at the level of 0.6814. Overall, the downtrend continues.

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Market Snapshot: Crude Oil consolidating the gains

The price of Crude Oil is now willing to drop towards the technical support at the level of $55.26 yet, instead the market is consolidating the gains between the levels of $56.38 - $57.91.The market is starting to be oversold, but the momentum is cleary pointing to the downside for now, so another leg down might be made to test the level of $55.65 before another bounce will happen. Reversal candlestick formations on a daily time frame chart support the downside bias.

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NZD/USD Intraday technical levels and trading recommendations for November 14, 2017

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Daily Outlook

A recent bullish breakout above the downtrend line took place on May 22. Since then, the market has been bullish as depicted on the chart.

This resulted in a quick bullish advance towards next price zones around 0.7150-0.7230 (Key-Zone) and 0.7310-0.7380 which was temporarily breached to the upside.

Recent bearish pullback was executed towards the price zone of 0.7310-0.7380 (newly-established demand-zone) which failed to offer enough bullish support for the NZD/USD pair.

Re-consolidation below the price level of 0.7300 enhanced the bearish side of the market. This brought the NZD/USD pair again towards 0.7230-0.7150 (Key-Zone) which failed to pause the ongoing bearish momentum.

An atypical Head and Shoulders pattern was expressed on the depicted chart indicating high probability of bearish reversal as long as bearish persistence below the neckline 0.7150 is maintained.

As expected, the price level of 0.7050 failed to offer enough bullish support for the NZD/USD pair. That's why, further bearish decline was expected towards 0.6800 (Reversal pattern bearish target).

If the recent low (0.6817) remains defended by the bulls, a bullish pullback can be expected towards 0.7050 if the current bullish pullback persists above 0.6970 ( Intraday Key-level ).

Trade recommendations:

If the current bullish pullback persists towards 0.7050, a valid SELL entry can be offered around there.

S/L should be placed above 0.7100. T/P levels to be placed at 0.6970, 0.6900 and 0.6830.

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Last minute burning forecast 14.11.2017

Last minute burning forecast 14.11.2017

EURUSD: Trade growth: Buying is preferred.

The EURUSD pair is steady near weekly highs, which indicates its goal to maintain its growth.

There are no important news: The closest important news is on Wednesday 15.11 - inflation data in the US for October.

If you hold positions for buying the EURUSD pair, then it is advised that the stop loss is set at 1.1625 - 1.1635.

If you do not have open positions - you can set a pending order to break through the level of 1.1690 upwards:

Buy stop 1.1690 (stop-loss 1.1645 profit 1.1790).

In case we are wrong (it happens) - sell from 1.1550.

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Daily analysis of major pairs for November 14, 2017

There is a promising "buy" signal on the EUR/USD. Since the low of last week (1.1553), the price has gone upwards by 120 pips; now above the support line at 1.1650. The next target is the resistance line at 1.1700, which would be reached very soon. The resistance line is supposed to be exceeded after it is tested.

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EUR/USD: There is a promising "buy" signal on the EUR/USD. Since the low of last week (1.1553), the price has gone upwards by 120 pips; now above the support line at 1.1650. The next target is the resistance line at 1.1700, which would be reached very soon. The resistance line is supposed to be exceeded after it is tested.

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USD/CHF: The USD/CHF is bullish in the long-term, but bearish in the short-term. Price consolidated on Monday and may rise upwards (as volatility increases), but it may not be significant because USD would maintain some stamina. The support levels at 0.9900, 0.9850 and 0.9800 would be tested before the end of the week.

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GBP/USD: There have not been any vivid changes on the Cable. A directional bias is expected this week, when price either goes above the distribution territory at 1.3300, or it goes below the accumulation territory at 1.3050 (either of these would require a strong buying or selling pressure).

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USD/JPY: This pair did nothing special on November 13. The price may make some attempts to go upwards this week, owing to a bullish outlook on USD. There are demand levels at 113.00 and 112.50. On the other hand, there are supply levels at 114.00 and 114.50.

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EUR/JPY: There is some short-term bullishness on the EUR/JPY at the present – owing to the perceived bullish effort on EUR. There is a Bullish Confirmation Pattern in the 4-hour chart, as the price promises to go further upwards (by at least, 150 pips). The next targets are the supply zones at 113.00 and 113.50.

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Elliott wave analysis of EUR/NZD for November 14, 2017

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Wave summary:

There was no time for a correction to 1.6614. EUR/NZD moved straightly higher as wave iii of (iii) of 3 is gathering traction towards the next upside target at 1.7770 and 1.8430 longer terms.

Support is now seen at 1.6855, this support will ideally protect the downside for the rally through 1.7216 on the way higher to 1.7770.

R3: 1.7216

R2: 1.7119

R1: 1.7059

Pivot: 1.6855

S1: 1.6781

S2: 1.6678

S3: 1.6614

Trading recommendation:

We are long EUR from 1.6770. We will move our stop higher to 1.6750.

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Elliott wave analysis of EUR/JPY for November 14, 2017

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Wave summary:

We continue to look for a little more upside closer to 133.15 to complete wave ii. From here renewed downside pressure should be expected as wave iii lower starts to develop a decline towards 128.36 on the wave lower to the ideal (E)-wave target at 123.43.

Short-term support is seen at 132.46 and again at 131.88. Only a break below the later will confirm that wave ii has completed and wave iii lower is developing.

R3: 133.15

R2: 133.02

R1: 132.84

Pivot: 132.46

S1: 132.24

S2: 131.88

S3: 131.36

Trading recommendation:

We are look to sell EUR again at 133.10 or upon a break below 131.88.

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Trading Plan for EUR/USD and US Dollar Index for November 14, 2017

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Technical outlook:

The EUR/USD pair continues to drift sideways ahead of former price resistance around 1.1690 levels as seen above. The pair is trading around 1.1670/75 levels at this moment and might be looking to turn lower one last time before producing a meaningful rally ahead. Please note that the wave structure remains unchanged from what was discussed last week. The pair is either producing a leading diagonal (5 waves) or a double zigzag corrective drop, both options are labeled above. A common point is that the pair might dip towards 1.1500/20 levels before turning higher again. A high probable wave count as labeled above is that it is working out wave iv which should terminate around current levels. If the above count holds true, we should see 1.1500/20 levels pretty soon. On the flip side, a break above 1.1690 and subsequently above trend line resistance would confirm that a meaningful bottom is in place at 1.1552 and that the next target should be higher towards at least 1.1900 levels.

Trading plan:

Conservative swing traders would want to buy below 1.1550 levels with risk at 1.1400, targeting 1.1900.

Aggressive traders might want to trade both sides.

US Dollar Index chart setups:

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Technical outlook:

The US Dollar Index is still looking to print one more high towards 95.30/50 levels before dropping lower again as a retracement or towards fresh lows. Looking at the wave counts here, it is more clear as an impulse (5 waves), labeled here. Furthermore, it seems to have terminated into wave iv around 94.25/30 levels, within the 5th wave as shown here. If the above wave count holds true, the pair should be heading north towards 95.30/50 levels before turning lower again. Please note that 95.30/50 is also the 0.382% Fibonacci resistance of the earlier drop between 102.20/30 through 91.00 levels, wave (3) of a higher degree according to the daily charts. One should expect a bearish reaction around that price towards a retracement lower or completely towards fresh lows below 91.00 levels. Immediate price support is at 92.75 levels while resistance is at 95.35 levels respectively.

Trading plan:

Conservative swing traders should be looking to sell as close to 95.00 or 95.30 levels with risk above 96.00 targeting 92.80.

Aggressive traders might want to trade both sides.

Fundamental outlook:

Please watch out for German GBP figures at 2:00 AM EST, followed by Italian GDP figures at 04:00 AM EST, then GBP consumer and Core Consumer price index at 04:30 AM EST, and finally Yellen speech along with Draghi's and EURO zone GDP figures at 05.00 AM EST

Good luck!

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Fundamental Analysis of GBP/USD for November 14, 2017

GBP/USD has been quite volatile and corrective recently and residing below the resistance level of 1.3130 with a daily close. GBP has been quite worse with the economic reports recently whereas the Interest Rate hike also could not help the currency gain some momentum over USD. Today several GBP and USD high impact economic reports and events are going to be held which is expected to have a good impact in the market and provide information about the upcoming directional movement. Today GBP CPI report is going to be published which is expected to have a slight increase to 3.1% from the previous value of 3.0%, PPI Input is expected to increase to 0.8% from the previous value of 0.4%, Core CPI is expected to increase to 2.8% from the previous value of 2.7%, HPI report is expected to increase to 5.2% from the previous value of 5.0% and PPI Output report is also expected to increase to 0.3% from the previous value of 0.2%. On the USD side, today FED Chair Yellen is going to speak about the interest rate decisions and future monetary policies which are expected to be neutral in nature, NFIB Small Business Index report is expected to increase to 104.0 from the previous figure of 103.0, PPI report is expected to decrease to 0.1% from the previous value of 0.4% and Core PPI is also expected to decrease to 0.2% from the previous value of 0.4%. As of the current situation, almost every GBP economic reports are forecasted to have positive outcome today and USD reports has mixed expectations. If the GBP reports come out positive as expected the pair is expected to continue the correction and on the other hand if the reports come negative or worse than expected than we might see USD taking over the gains and pushing the price much lower. Market sentiment is currently quite in favor of USD as the Rate Hike in December is quite confirmed and USD is expected to gain good momentum soon.

Now let us look at the technical view, the price is currently residing below the resistance level of 1.3130 with a daily close which is also being held as resistance by the dynamic level of 20 EMA. The price is still residing inside the corrective structure, but bears seemed to be quite stronger than the bulls in the formation. As the price remains below the resistance level of 1.3130 the bearish bias is expected to continue further with the target towards 1.2800 support area.

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Technical analysis of EUR/USD for Nov 14, 2017

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When the European market opens, some Economic Data will be released, such as ZEW Economic Sentiment, Industrial Production m/m, German ZEW Economic Sentiment, Flash GDP q/q, Italian Prelim GDP q/q, German Final CPI m/m, and German Prelim GDP q/q. The US will release the Economic Data, too, such as Core PPI m/m, PPI m/m, NFIB Small Business Index, and Federal Budget Balance, so, amid the reports, EUR/USD will move in a low to medium volatility during this day.

TODAY'S TECHNICAL LEVEL:

Breakout BUY Level: 1.1726.

Strong Resistance:1.1719.

Original Resistance: 1.1708.

Inner Sell Area: 1.1697.

Target Inner Area: 1.164769.

Inner Buy Area: 1.1641.

Original Support: 1.1630.

Strong Support: 1.15619.

Breakout SELL Level: 1.1612.

Disclaimer: Trading Forex (foreign exchange) on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.

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Technical analysis of USD/JPY for Nov 14, 2017

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In Asia, Japan will get the BOJ Gov Kuroda Speaks, and the US will release some Economic Data, such as Core PPI m/m, PPI m/m, NFIB Small Business Index, and Federal Budget Balance. So, there is a probability the USD/JPY will move with a low to medium volatility during this day.

TODAY'S TECHNICAL LEVEL:

Resistance. 3: 114.24.

Resistance. 2: 114.02.

Resistance. 1: 113.79.

Support. 1: 113.52.

Support. 2: 113.30.

Support. 3: 113.08.

Disclaimer: Trading Forex (foreign exchange) on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.

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EUR/USD testing major resistance, remain bearish

The price is once again testing major resistance at 1.1679 (Fibonacci retracement, horizontal resistance, Fibonacci extension) and we expect to see a strong reaction off that level to push the price down to at least 1.1573 support (Fibonacci extension, horizontal swing low support).

Stochastic (34,3,1) is seeing major resistance at 99% and we expect a corresponding reaction off this level.

Sell below 1.1679. Stop loss is at 1.1736. Take profit is at 1.1573.

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AUD/JPY testing major support, time to buy for a corrective bounce

The price has dropped strongly and is now testing a major support level at 86.58 (Fibonacci extension, long-term Fibonacci retracement, fake horizontal breakout). We look to buy above this level for a corrective bounce to at least 87.21 resistance (Fibonacci retracement, Fibonacci extension, horizontal swing high resistance, bullish divergence).

Stochastic (89,3,1) is seeing strong support above 1.2% and also sees bullish divergence vs price signaling that a bounce is impending.

Buy above 86.58. Stop loss is at 86.26. Take profit is at 87.21.

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Daily analysis of USDX for November 14, 2017

USDX is waiting for a catalyst that helps to drive the index towards new highs or to continue with the bearish bias across the board. To the downside, if it manages to break below last Friday's lows, then we can expect another decline to test the support level of 93.97, while to the upside, the critical 200 SMA should be broken in order to allow gains towards November 7th highs.

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H1 chart's resistance levels: 95.14 / 95.85

H1 chart's support levels: 94.60 / 93.97

Trading recommendations for today: Based on the H1 chart, place buy (long) orders only if the USD Index breaks with a bullish candlestick; the resistance level is at 95.14, take profit is at 95.85 and stop loss is at 94.47.

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Daily analysis of GBP/USD for November 14, 2017

GBP/USD started the week with a bearish tone in the short-term, consolidating its price action below the 200 SMA at H1 chart and it seems we can see a testing of the support level at 1.3037. If that zone gives up, then another leg lower is possible, targeting the next barrier for sellers at 1.2880. MACD indicator is turning neutral, calling for further sideways' moves.

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H1 chart's resistance levels: 1.3201 / 1.3309

H1 chart's support levels: 1.3037 / 1.2880

Trading recommendations for today: Based on the H1 chart, sell (short) orders only if the GBP/USD pair breaks a bearish candlestick; the support level is at 1.3037, take profit is at 1.2880 and stop loss is at 1.3193.

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Pound writes an explanation

There was no response against the argument. No matter how good the macroeconomic indicators of the UK have been lately, the bulls in the GBP/USD are not able to fight political risks. Strong data on industrial production and foreign trade allowed the British pound to go above the base of the 32nd mark against the US dollar. However, another scandal surrounding the UK government caused the sterling to hit the ground.

Following the dismissal of the Secretary of State for International Development Priti Patel, due to unauthorized meetings of the latter with Israeli officials, the Sunday Times struck a blow at Prime Minister Theresa May. According to the popular tabloid, 40 representatives of the Conservative Party put their signatures under a letter of no confidence in their leader Theresa May. It continues to find eight more, and afterwards the process of her removal from power will be launched.

The confusion surrounding the government significantly worries investors, which increases the pound's volatility. This is because a change in the structure of the Cabinet would complicate the difficult negotiations on Brexit. The case of divorce is in full swing, and the U.K. economy already feels the consequences of a breakup in its long-standing ties. According to the forecasts of the European Commission, it will slow to 1.5% in 2017, to 1.3% in 2018 and to 1.1% in 2019. The lagging dynamics of the British GDP for European and American counterparts allows us to count on the stability of the upward trend in the EUR/GBP pair and the "bearish" trend in the the GBP/USD pair even against the backdrop of tightening of the BoE monetary policy.

Mark Carney and his colleagues are in a very difficult situation. According to the consensus forecast of Bloomberg experts, according to the results of October, consumer prices will reach + 3.1%, which is higher than the estimates of the Bank of England. Carney's division will have to write an explanatory note to the Treasury and give additional arguments in favor of the temporary nature of the acceleration of the indicator.

Dynamics of actual and projected inflation in Britain

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Source: Bloomberg.

Along with the publication of data on consumer prices and core inflation, the pound will pass the test of releases of data on the labor market and retail sales. Forecasts are disappointing: according to the second indicator on an annual basis, Bloomberg experts are expecting the first withdrawal to negative since April 2013; it is likely that the average wage growth will slow from 2.2% to 2.1% y/y, which will pose as an additional blow to the purchasing power of the population. If we add to this the political risks, then the picture for sterling is drawn in gray tones.

In such a situation, much will depend on progress in the implementation of tax reform in the United States. If the process goes along the path indicated by Finance Minister Steve Mnuchin (who is certain that the repair of the fiscal system will be approved by Congress before Christmas), then the GBP/USD pair will easily decline towards the level of 1.29. If the majority's opinion is embodied in life (there is no need to expect progress on tax reform before the end of the year), then the pound will remain restrained to a consolidation in the range of 1.3-1.33.

Technically, a break in the bottom of the upward trading channel will increase the risk of continuing the peak towards the direction of 1.28.

GBP/USD, daily chart

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Technical analysis of USD/JPY for November 13, 2017

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USD/JPY is expected to trade with bearish outlook. Despite the recent pullback, the pair is still trading below the declining 50-period moving average, which plays a resistance role. The relative strength index is below its neutrality level at 50 and lacks upward momentum.

Hence, as long as 113.75 holds on the upside, look for a further downside with targets at 113.20 and 112.90 in extension.

Alternatively, if the price moves in the opposite direction, a short position is recommended above 113.75 with a target at 114.05.

Chart Explanation: The black line shows the pivot point. The current price above the pivot point indicates a bullish position, while the price below the pivot point is a signal for a short position. The red lines show the support levels and the green line indicates the resistance level. These levels can be used to enter and exit trades.

Strategy: SELL, Stop Loss: 113.75, Take Profit: 113.20

Resistance levels: 114.05, 114.30 and 114.65 Support Levels: 113.20, 112.90, 112.50

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Bitcoin Analysis for November 13, 2017

Bitcoin has seen a drastic fall recently off the resistance area of $7800 as the November fork was cancelled due to disagreement among developers. Today suddenly the market bounced off the support area of $5,500 after an impulsive bearish move. The counter move was more impulsive than the last daily bearish candle which is expected to push the price higher again towards the path of $8,000 price level. The sudden impulsive bullish move is assumed because of the recent introduction of Bitcoin Gold which is expected to have a positive impact on the Bitcoin's advance in the coming days. Currently, the price is between $6,500-$6,700 resistance area after having bounced off the support area of $5,500 with a Double Bottom pattern. If the price breaks above with an intraday close as the next price action, then the impulsive bullish move is likely to continue further with a target towards $8,000 price level. As the price remains above $5,500 price area, the bullish bias is expected to continue further.

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Technical analysis of USD/CHF for November 13, 2017

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Our first target which we predicted in previous analysis has been hit. The pair is again turning down after the short rebound, and also broke below its 50-period moving average. The relative strength index is turning down, and calls for a new drop. Last but not least, the nearest resistance at 0.9980 maintains the strong selling pressure on the prices.

As long as 0.9980 holds on the upside, look for a new pullback to 0.9920 and 0.9900 in extension

Chart Explanation: The black line shows the pivot point. The present price above the pivot point indicates a bullish position, and the price below the pivot points indicates a short position. The red lines show the support levels and the green line indicates the resistance levels. These levels can be used to enter and exit trades.

Strategy: SELL, Stop Loss: 0.9980, Take Profit: 0.9920

Resistance levels: 1.0000, 1.0020, and 1.0045

Support levels: 0.9920, 0.9900, and 0.9860

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