Results of the Fed meeting met expectations, ECB takes the baton; Overview of EUR and GBP

According to the results of the meeting that ended on Wednesday, the US Federal Reserve left both the rate level and the QE program unchanged. The results of the meeting were in line with expectations and did not lead to noticeable market fluctuations.

There is growing confidence that rates will remain low over a long range until at least 2021.

It should be noted that the Fed's measures, despite their ambiguity, are still yielding results. The financial conditions have softened significantly after the start of the pandemic, which has ensured the functioning of the market.

analytics5eaa6baf72cec.jpg

US GDP fell during the first quarter - 4.8% yoy, which is the worst figure since the fourth quarter of 2008.

Personal consumption declined by 7.7% q / q, which is not surprising given the weak data on car sales and retail sales, and this is the largest quarterly decline since 1980 - the very height of the energy crisis. Despite the fact that exports made a positive contribution to GDP, this was not due to the fact that exports increased, but because of the maximum decrease in imports since 2008.

analytics5eaa6bc35920b.jpg

All this is a sign of a sharp drop in demand. Therefore, according to preliminary estimates, the second quarter will be much worse than the first. A number of banks forecast a decline in GDP in the range of 20 - 30%; Nordea Bank is the most pessimistic - it expects a decline of 31%.

Given the development of the pandemic situation, it is hardly worth expecting its completion before June. This means that demand growth for risky assets until the second quarter is unlikely, global demand for oil will also remain weak, and another wave of falling oil prices is possible given the storage will be full in the coming weeks.

EUR/USD

The ECB meeting will be held amid worsening economic prospects. According to the European Commission, the mood in the services sector declined in April from -2.3p. up to -35p, the index of business optimism in industry - from -11.2p to -30.4p.

The Fed managed to maintain financial conditions due to a sharp increase in the balance sheet, but inflationary expectations in the US stopped falling. The ECB noticeably lags behind the Fed in terms of its impact on the economy, and if the market does not receive a clear signal of readiness to significantly expand stimulus today, this could lead to a sharp increase in the euro exchange rate, which is unacceptable for European business since it will reduce its competitive advantage amid a rapid recession.

Accordingly, markets expect the ECB to begin to act proactively, without waiting for a recession. A wave of lowering the credit rating of corporations is expected, which will cause a quick shortage of collateral, and, as a result, the credit activity of banks will decrease. Accordingly, the ECB may announce today the provision of significant credit resources on facilitated terms to prevent cyclic processes from taking place .

The euro did not respond to the Fed meeting, but the ECB is unlikely to ignore the result of the meeting. The most likely scenario is an increase to the 1.0940/70 zone, the technical bullish impulse is not over yet, as support for 1.0730 / 60 is stable and does not allow the euro to decline from the side range. If you try to go above 1.10, you can buy with the goal of 1.1130, but to implement this scenario, several conditions must be met that are not shown before the ECB meeting.

GBP/USD

The pound is the only currency that falls against the dollar. The pound is not supported by internal news, the situation with COVID-19 looks worse in the UK than in most countries, the Bank of England is silent, and macroeconomic benchmarks are not enough to get out of the range.

Today, we can count on an attempt to grow to 1.2520, this will be facilitated by both oil growth and the general positive mood of the market. If testing the level of 1.2520 is successful, the pound will try to develop success and move on to 1.2640, but strong movement is unlikely.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

EUR/USD IPDA 60-Day Range Price Movement For April 30, 2020

analytics5eaa4df3b2820.jpg

(Disclaimer)

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Trading idea for the EUR/USD pair

analytics5eaa65cbe0513.jpg

Good afternoon traders! A trading idea for the EUR/USD pair.

Rates were left unchanged at the April Fed meeting yesterday, leaving promises not to raise them in the near future, at least until the economy stabilizes. The meeting also noted the sharp economic decline observed in the US.

Thus, dollar weakened against all currencies after the statements.

I propose considering the idea of raising the EUR/USD rate to a round level of 1.09:

analytics5eaa72f1507d2.jpg

The idea is to "hunt" for the stops of weekly sellers who are now behind the 1.09 level.

Yesterday's news in the US can serve as support for purchases.

The risk / reward ratio in this idea is 1/1.

Good luck!

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

GBP/USD: plan for the European session on April 30. Pound on the side of buyers. Bulls aim for resistance of 1.2480

To open long positions on GBP/USD, you need:

The pound sharply fell during the European session and then it faced rapid growth, with a little attempt by the bears to return to the market from the resistance of 1.2445, which I paid attention to in yesterday's forecast, indicates an active opposition, which is still left for buyers. On the 5-minute chart, you can clearly see the bears' attempt to return to the market and continue the downward trend that formed at the beginning of the day. At the moment, the bulls are focused on breaking the resistance of 1.2479, consolidating above this level will be a signal to buy GBP/USD in the hope of continuing the upward correction to the highs of 1.2526 and 1.2573, where I recommend taking profits. No important fundamental statistics are expected for the UK today, so in case the pound falls in the first half of the day, by analogy with yesterday, it is best to return to long positions on a false breakout from the support of 1.2392, but you can buy GBP/USD immediately for a rebound only after testing the larger lows of 1.2327 and 1.2300 based on a rebound of 30-40 points within the day.

analytics5eaa70abdc592.jpg

To open short positions on GBP/USD, you need:

Sellers are active with each increase in the British pound, which is clearly visible on the chart, but to return the market under their control, they need to form a false breakout in the resistance area of 1.2479, since a lot depends on it. If the bears do not allow the pair to go higher, then most likely the pressure on the pound will return, and it will be possible to observe a decline in the area of a major support of 1.2392, where I recommend taking profits in the first half of the day. An equally important task will be to consolidate under this range, since only then can we talk about the return of the downward trend, which can lead to an update of the lows of 1.2327 and 1.2300. In case GBP/USD grows above the resistance of 1.1479 in the first half of the day and sellers are not active at this level, it is best to abandon short positions to test the more important resistance of 1.2526, or sell immediately for a rebound from the high of 1.2573 per correction of 30-40 points intraday.

analytics5eaa70c0d4914.jpg

Signals of indicators:

Moving averages

Trade is carried out in the region of 30 and 50 moving average, which indicates some uncertainty regarding the future direction.

Note: The period and prices of moving averages are considered by the author on the hourly chart H1 and differs from the general definition of the classic daily moving averages on the daily chart D1.

Bollinger bands

If the pound declines, support will be provided by the lower border of the indicator at 1.2392. A break of the upper border of the indicator in the area of 1.2485 will lead to a larger growth of the pound.

Description of indicators

  • Moving average (moving average determines the current trend by smoothing out volatility and noise). Period 50. The graph is marked in yellow.
  • Moving average (moving average determines the current trend by smoothing out volatility and noise). Period 30. The graph is marked in green.
  • MACD indicator (Moving Average Convergence / Divergence - moving average convergence / divergence) Fast EMA period 12. Slow EMA period 26. SMA period 9
  • Bollinger Bands (Bollinger Bands). Period 20
The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

GBP/USD: plan for the European session on April 30. Pound on the side of buyers. Bulls aim for resistance of 1.2480

To open long positions on GBP/USD, you need:

The pound sharply fell during the European session and then it faced rapid growth, with a little attempt by the bears to return to the market from the resistance of 1.2445, which I paid attention to in yesterday's forecast, indicates an active opposition, which is still left for buyers. On the 5-minute chart, you can clearly see the bears' attempt to return to the market and continue the downward trend that formed at the beginning of the day. At the moment, the bulls are focused on breaking the resistance of 1.2479, consolidating above this level will be a signal to buy GBP/USD in the hope of continuing the upward correction to the highs of 1.2526 and 1.2573, where I recommend taking profits. No important fundamental statistics are expected for the UK today, so in case the pound falls in the first half of the day, by analogy with yesterday, it is best to return to long positions on a false breakout from the support of 1.2392, but you can buy GBP/USD immediately for a rebound only after testing the larger lows of 1.2327 and 1.2300 based on a rebound of 30-40 points within the day.

analytics5eaa70abdc592.jpg

To open short positions on GBP/USD, you need:

Sellers are active with each increase in the British pound, which is clearly visible on the chart, but to return the market under their control, they need to form a false breakout in the resistance area of 1.2479, since a lot depends on it. If the bears do not allow the pair to go higher, then most likely the pressure on the pound will return, and it will be possible to observe a decline in the area of a major support of 1.2392, where I recommend taking profits in the first half of the day. An equally important task will be to consolidate under this range, since only then can we talk about the return of the downward trend, which can lead to an update of the lows of 1.2327 and 1.2300. In case GBP/USD grows above the resistance of 1.1479 in the first half of the day and sellers are not active at this level, it is best to abandon short positions to test the more important resistance of 1.2526, or sell immediately for a rebound from the high of 1.2573 per correction of 30-40 points intraday.

analytics5eaa70c0d4914.jpg

Signals of indicators:

Moving averages

Trade is carried out in the region of 30 and 50 moving average, which indicates some uncertainty regarding the future direction.

Note: The period and prices of moving averages are considered by the author on the hourly chart H1 and differs from the general definition of the classic daily moving averages on the daily chart D1.

Bollinger bands

If the pound declines, support will be provided by the lower border of the indicator at 1.2392. A break of the upper border of the indicator in the area of 1.2485 will lead to a larger growth of the pound.

Description of indicators

  • Moving average (moving average determines the current trend by smoothing out volatility and noise). Period 50. The graph is marked in yellow.
  • Moving average (moving average determines the current trend by smoothing out volatility and noise). Period 30. The graph is marked in green.
  • MACD indicator (Moving Average Convergence / Divergence - moving average convergence / divergence) Fast EMA period 12. Slow EMA period 26. SMA period 9
  • Bollinger Bands (Bollinger Bands). Period 20
The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

ECB's meeting to put euro under pressure

Signals for the EUR/USD pair:

The euro is expected to rise to 1.0916 and 1.0937, if the price breaks throug at 1.0885.

A breakthrough at 1.0840 may lead to a sell-off of the euro at 1.0812 and 1.0787.

Signals for the GBP/USD pair:

If the price breaks through the level of 1.2480, the British pound is likely to grow to 1.2526 and 1.2573.

A breakthrough at 1.2430 may lead to a sell off of the British pound to 1.2392 and 1.2327.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

GBP/USD IPDA 60 Day Ranges Price Movement For April 30, 2020

analytics5eaa50e2b0194.jpg

(Disclaimer)

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

EUR/USD: plan for the European session on April 30. The Fed's decision did not push the euro. Pressure may return before

To open long positions on EURUSD, you need:

Yesterday's data on US GDP, as well as the decision of the Federal reserve to leave interest rates unchanged, did not cause serious changes in the market. Traders are cautious about long positions in the euro, but they are also not in a hurry to buy the US dollar. A number of reports on inflation and unemployment in the eurozone will be released today in the first half of the day, which may put pressure on the pair. It is best to open long positions when EUR/USD falls to the support area of 1.0840 and a false breakout is formed there, which will be the first signal to buy. However, a lot depends on the outcome of the European Central Bank meeting. If there aren't any new measures to help the economy, and rates remain unchanged, the pressure on the euro will increase. In this scenario, it is best to open long positions after updating the lows of the week in the area of 1.0812 and 1.0787, and a larger area where you can buy the euro immediately on the rebound, which is seen in the area of 1.0755. An equally important task for the bulls is to break through and consolidate above the resistance of 1.0885, which will result in continuing the upward trend formed from the low of April 24 this year, and a test of new highs of 1.0916 and 1.0937, where I recommend taking profits.

To open short positions on EURUSD, you need:

Sellers continue to be active with each growth of the European currency and yesterday, they did not allow the pair go above the April 28 high, which indicates the possibility of getting the market under their control. However, first you need to return to the support level of 1.0840, consolidating under which will be a direct signal to open short positions while expecting EUR/USD to fall to lows of 1.0812 and 1.0787, where I recommend taking profits. A more powerful downward momentum can be built following the ECB's decision on interest rates, so the farthest target for the bears at the end of this week will be support for 1.0755. In case the pair grows in the first half of the day following reports on eurozone inflation, you can open short positions after forming a false breakout in the resistance area of 1.0885, but I recommend selling EUR/USD only for a rebound from the highs of 1.0916 and 1.0937 based on a downward correction of 30-40 points within the day.

analytics5eaa6aeb1c6f6.jpg

Signals of indicators:

Moving averages

Trading is conducted slightly above 30 and 50 moving averages, which implies that buyers have a slight advantage.

Note: The period and prices of moving averages are considered by the author on the hourly chart H1 and differs from the general definition of the classic daily moving averages on the daily chart D1.

Bollinger bands

Growth may be limited by the upper level of the indicator at 1.0885. In case the euro falls, a break of the lower border of the indicator in the region of 1.0840 will increase pressure on the euro.

Description of indicators

  • Moving average (moving average determines the current trend by smoothing out volatility and noise). Period 50. The graph is marked in yellow.
  • Moving average (moving average determines the current trend by smoothing out volatility and noise). Period 30. The graph is marked in green.
  • MACD indicator (Moving Average Convergence / Divergence - moving average convergence / divergence) Fast EMA period 12. Slow EMA period 26. SMA period 9
  • Bollinger Bands (Bollinger Bands). Period 20
The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Elliott wave analysis of EUR/GBP for April 30 - 2020

analytics5eaa56f0edd70.jpg

EUR/GBP is finally moving higher from the corrective low at 0.8689. The break above minor resistance at 0.8737 was the first good indication that wave ii had completed. A strong rally in wave iii is underway to above 0.9499.

That said, we still need a break above short-term key resistance at 0.8868 to confirm the expected impulsive rally higher above 0.9499. The short-term risk is a break below 0.8693 that changes not only the 0.8689 corrective low but also the 0.8621 target before the correction from 0.9499 is completed.

R3: 0.8868

R2: 0.8759

R1: 0.8731

Pivot: 0.8711

S1: 0.8693

S2: 0.8675

S3: 0.8621

Trading recommendation:

We are long EUR from 0.8765 with our stop at 0.8670.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Elliott wave analysis of GBP/JPY for April 30 - 2020

analytics5eaa554f71533.jpg

GBP/JPY finally started its next impulsive decline which we expect to dip below 123.99. That said, we still need that break with short-term key-support at 131.88. Until this support breaks the possibility of a re-test of 133.68 remains.

We do prefer the bearish option and expect minor resistance at 133.04 to keep the correction from 131.88 at bay and soon set the stage for a new test of key-support at 131.88. A break below here will confirm that the next impulsive decline is in motion to 123.99.

R3: 134.09

R2: 133.68

R1: 133.04

Pivot: 132.55

S1: 131.88

S2: 131.34

S3: 130.63

Trading recommendation:

We sold GBP at 134.35 and have a stop at 135.00. Upon a break below 131.88 we will lower our stop to 134.00

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Technical Analysis of ETH/USD for 30/04/2020:

Crypto Industry News:

The China Office of the Central Commission for Cyberspace Affairs (OCCAC) has announced blockchain projects that will receive the approval of national regulatory authorities. 224 projects in this technology have been added to the committee register, including large technology companies such as Alibaba, Baidu and China Mobile.

The list of approved projects includes the ventures of several large corporations, including Walmart China, whose food safety tracking initiative has been marked green, and companies involved in the development of state-supported blockchain networks, such as China Mobile, China Merchants Bank and Alibaba. Some entities have been allowed to implement many DLT projects, and five blockchain projects from China Merchants Bank have already received approval.

On April 25, China announced the commercial launch of the long-awaited Blockchain Service Network (BSN). The Chinese government announced over 2,000 BSN-based programs in the six months prior to the beta release in October 2019, including applications to support social assistance distribution, goods tracking and digital invoicing. On April 20, the city of Ya'an in Sichuan issued a statement supporting the directing of local hydropower to cryptocurrency mining operations, announcing plans to build the so-called Demonstration zones for hydropower consumption.

Technical Market Outlook:

The ETH/USD has been rallying for the last 36h straight as all the technical resistance levels has been violated. The next target for bulls is seen at the level of $235.42, but please notice, that the market conditions are extremely overbought. The nearest technical support is located at the level of $214.67, $212.48 and $209.89. The bulls are in full control of the market.

Weekly Pivot Points:

WR3 - $243.80

WR2 - $220.39

WR1 - $211.16

Weekly Pivot - $187.55

WS1 - $172.98

WS2 - $155.34

WS3 - $144.09

Trading Recommendations:

The fear of the coronavirus consequences is very strong among the global investors and it rules on the financial markets. So far the global investors are not so keen to invest in cryptocurrency, because they are being perceived as risky assets. The larger time frame trend on Ethereum remains down and as long as the level of $214.67 is not violated, all rallies will be treated as a counter-trend corrective moves. This is why the short positions are now more preferred.

analytics5eaa5c765b474.jpg

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Technical Analysis of BTC/USD for 30/04/2020:

Crypto Industry News:

Hackers infected Parkview Medical Center infrastructure - the largest health center in Pueblo County, Colorado - with ransomware. One of the hospital employees reported that the patient information storage system at the Parkview Medical Center was infected with ransomware and stopped working. The hospital confirmed the incident in a statement.

It is worth mentioning that despite the crisis due to COVID-19, attacks using ransomware are still ongoing, but their number has decreased during this period. A recently attacked facility also stated that it had switched to a paper patient registration system.

Malware ransomware is evolving rapidly and is perceived by many as serious, if not the greatest cyber security threat. While almost all ransomware discovered so far require payment or "ransom" in cryptocurrencies, Check Point recently revealed a new ransomware attack in which attackers require credit card payments.

Technical Market Outlook:

The BTC/USD pair has been rallying all night long and is currently heading towards the level of $10,000, which is the next big level for BTC bulls. Currently, the bulls has hit the technical resistance zone located between the levels of $8,919 - $9,249 in extremely overbought market conditions. The nearest technical support is seen at the level of $7,934.

Weekly Pivot Points:

WR3 - $9,046

WR2 - $8,348

WR1 - $8,040

Weekly Pivot - $7,352

WS1 - $7,064

WS2 - $6,356

WS3 - $6,047

Trading Recommendations:

The fear of the coronavirus consequences is very strong among the global investors and it rules on the financial markets. So far the global investors are not so keen to invest in Bitcoin and treat BTC as a digital gold. The larger time frame trend remains down and as long as the level of $10,791 is not violated, all rallies will be treated as a counter-trend corrective moves. This is why the short positions are now more preferred.

analytics5eaa5ace35a4e.jpg

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Technical Analysis of GBP/USD for 30/04/2020:

Technical Market Outlook:

After the GBP/USD pair has broken through 61% Fibonacci replacement located at the level of 1.2493, it was immediately rejected and the Pin Bar candle was made at the end of this move. During the recent 24h the rate stabilized and the volatility has decreased. The level of 1.2516 might be a key short-term level for both bulls and bears as any violation of this level will lead to another sub-wave up with a target at the levels of 1.2580. Nevertheless, in order to continue the larger time frame up trend, the bulls must violate the swing high located at 1.2645 otherwise the current move up will be considered as a counter-trend corrective wave that will not last for long.

Weekly Pivot Points:

WR3 — 1.2379

WR2 — 1.2609

WR1 — 1.2480

Weekly Pivot — 1.2357

WS1 — 1.2228

WS2 — 1.2104

WS3 — 1.1970

Trading Recommendations:

The fear of the corona virus consequences is very strong among the global investors and it rules on the financial markets. On the GBP/USD pair the main trend is down, but the reversal is possible when the corona virus pandemic will be tamed. The key long-term technical support has been recently violated (1.1983) and the new one is seen at the level of 1.1404. The key long-term technical resistance is seen at the level of 1.3518. Only if one of this levels is clearly violated, the main trend might reverse (1.3518) or accelerate (1.1404).

analytics5eaa5959f17b9.jpg

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Technical Analysis of EUR/USD for 30/04/2020:

Technical Market Outlook:

The EUR/USD pair has again hit the key short-term resistance located at the level of 1.0878, but the bulls were rejected from this level again. So far the bulls were able to make a new local high at the level of 1.0888 and recently the price was rejected from the level of 1.0878 and a Bearish Engulfing candlestick pattern was made at the end of the move. The momentum is still strong and positive, but the market conditions are overbought, so the odds for another dynamic wave up are decreasing. The nearest technical support is seen at the level of 1.0809.

Weekly Pivot Points:

WR3 - 1.1057

WR2 - 1.0976

WR1 - 1.0895

Weekly Pivot - 1.0809

WS1 - 1.0731

WS2 - 1.0641

WS3 - 1.0563

Trading Recommendations:

The fear of the coronavirus consequences is very strong among the global investors and it rules on the financial markets. ON the EUR/USD pair the main trend is down, but the reversal is possible when the coronavirus pandemic will be tamed. The key long-term technical support is seen at the level of 1.0336 and the key long-term technical resistance is seen at the level of 1.1540. Only if one of this levels is clearly violated, the main trend might reverse (1.1540) or accelerate (1.0336).

analytics5eaa58143f203.jpg

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

CADJPY approaching descending trendline resistance.

analytics5eaa4e5faf2f3.jpg

Trading Recommendation

Entry: 77.090

Reason for Entry: Descending trendline resistance, 61.8% Fibonacci retracement

Take Profit : 75.936

Reason for Take Profit: 61.8% Fibonacci retracement

Stop Loss: 77.897

Reason for Stop loss: 88% and -61.8% Fibonacci retracement

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

USD/CAD approaching 1st support, potential bounce !

analytics5eaa4dd565a49.jpg

Trading Recommendation

Entry: 1.3862

Reason for Entry: Horizontal swing low support , 78.6% fibonacci extension

Take Profit :1.40006

Reason for Take Profit: 38.2% fibonacci retracement, horizontal pullback resistance

Stop Loss: 1.4116

Reason for Stop loss: 100% fibonacci extension

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Forecast for EUR/USD on April 30, 2020

EUR/USD

The euro almost imperceptibly reacted to the Fed's neutral monetary policy decision on Wednesday. Tuesday's high was not overcome, but the euro is declining this morning. The signal line of the Marlin oscillator touched the boundary of the growth territory and showed a downward turn from it on the daily chart.

analytics5eaa47527222e.jpg

The magnetic point formed by the intersection of the MACD line and the price channel of 1.0935 may not be reached. The condition for starting the euro's medium-term decline will be for the price to go below the April 6 low (1.0768).

analytics5eaa4765299fb.jpg

The price once again failed to overcome the resistance of the MACD line on the four-hour chart, staying in the accumulation band of the second half of April. The signal line of the Marlin oscillator formed a small triangle, going down from it will strengthen the fall of the indicator and price.

So, our expectation remains the same - with the price going below the signal level of 1.0768, the prospect of moving to the nearest target along the line of the price channel of 1.0600 opens up.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Forecast for AUD/USD on April 30, 2020

AUD/USD

The Australian dollar added more than 60 points on Wednesday and went above one of the lines of the price channel on the daily chart.

analytics5eaa442178cd8.jpg

At first glance, the price is ready to go higher and work out the target level of 1.6672 (the low of October and August 2019), but convergence is forming on the Marlin oscillator, because of which even the price exit above the trend line could turn out to be false. Consolidating the price under it (0.6525) will be the first sign of an upcoming reversal. Leaving the price under the signal level 0.6446 (April 14 high) will allow the price to work out the first bearish target 0.6373. Further, it is possible to decline to the MACD line at around 0.6270, then 0.6155.

analytics5eaa44346b0e4.jpg

The divergence according to Marlin is expressed more clearly and unambiguously on the four-hour chart, moreover, it is threefold. A price reversal down and consolidation below 0.6525 may occur today. The signal level for opening short positions of 0.6446 is very close to the MACD line, which increases the significance of this level. We are waiting for the development of events.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Forecast for USD/JPY on April 30, 2020

USD/JPY

The Japanese yen did not gain a foothold under the trend line on its first attempt, opening the way to a decline to 102.40. The second attempt may occur by overcoming yesterday's low of 106.37. Specifications for the past day have not changed, the pair is under pressure.

analytics5eaa430e9f050.jpg

The price develops in the range of the MACD line on the four-hour chart, without deviating far from it. The Marlin oscillator does not leave the negative trend zone, it only unloaded before the expected decline.

analytics5eaa432164ae5.jpg

So, with the price overcoming the new signal level 106.37, it is possible to open short positions with a strategic aim at 102.40. The strongest intermediate target levels are 105.10 and 103.95.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Hot forecast and trading signals for the GBP/USD pair on April 30

GBP/USD 1H

analytics5eaa2495adba1.jpg

The picture became somewhat clearer on the hourly chart for the pound/dollar pair. The Federal Reserve meeting did not affect the course of trading, but the pair plunged to the support area of 1.2403 - 1.2416, as well as to the Kijun-sen line for the 4-hour timeframe. In addition, the price touched the lower border of the upward channel and rebounded off these three supports, resuming the upward movement. Thus, from the point of view of technical analysis, we got an almost ideal entry point into the market with long positions. In the current situation, and according to the current technical picture, we can only assume a continuation of the upward movement until the GBP/USD pair leaves the upward channel.

No macroeconomic publications in the UK are scheduled for Thursday. Therefore, the macroeconomic background for the pair will be reduced to the report on applications for unemployment benefits in the US (primary and secondary). We believe that the next and an additional several million unemployed in the United States could create additional pressure on the position of the US dollar. However, we should not forget that traders are ignoring almost all the data that comes to their disposal. Thus, we don't expect a strong movement in one direction today. Most likely, the movement will continue with frequent corrections and pullbacks, which will be characterized as a weak trend. In general, do not forget that the UK continues to be dominated by Brexit and its consequences. Only now the negative for the British economy associated with this event will be multiplied by the consequences of the pandemic, which, according to most experts, the British government failed to cope properly. Thus, on April 30, we have two main options for the development of the event:

1) The initiative for the pound/dollar pair is still in the hands of buyers, since the price continues to be located inside the rising channel. The quotes rebounded from the strong support area of 1.2403-1.2416, so now it is advised to trade higher with the goal of the resistance level for the 4-hour 1.2494 chart. In this case, Take Profit can be about 40 points. If the first target is overcome, then the longs can be left open with a target level of volatility of 1.2565. In this case, Take Profit will be about 100 points.

2) Sellers will be able to trade down again only after quotes exit the upward channel and overcome the support area of 1.2403-1.2416 along with the Kijun-sen line. Thus, consolidating is required for 1.2400 (approximately), and after this condition is met, it will be possible to open sell orders with a rather distant target of 1.2240 (support level for the 4-hour timeframe). In this case, Take Profit can be up to 150 points. The intermediate target is 1.2369 - the lower level of volatility on April 30.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Hot forecast and trading signals for the EUR/USD pair on April 30

EUR/USD 4H

analytics5eaa298288ad2.jpg

The euro/dollar pair overcame a long-term downward trend on the 4-hour timeframe on April 30. Overcoming it gave traders the opportunity to trade for a more confident increase. We hoped that a strong macroeconomic background of the environment would contribute to strong movement. However, in practice it turned out that the level of volatility did not change at all. And indeed, few have changed. Thus, we believe that an upward trend has now formed on the euro/dollar pair.

EUR/USD 1H

analytics5eaa2996e6f43.jpg

In addition to overcoming the long-term downward trend, a new ascending trend line is formed, with four support points on the hourly timeframe. Traders also managed to gain a foothold above the Senkou Span B line, although consolidating is uncertain. Thus, in the short term, the upward trend is confirmed by technical analysis.

As we have already said in fundamental reviews, a rather large number of various reports and events are set for the European Union and the United States today. However, only some of them can attract attention. First of all, the data on the Eurozone GDP for the first quarter and the summary of the ECB meeting. Secondly, the report on applications for unemployment benefits in the United States. However, looking at the reaction of market participants to yesterday's, no less important, events, it becomes clear that traders are going to ignore the fundamental background today. The US currency may continue to be under moderate market pressure due to the fact that more disappointing macroeconomic statistics are coming in from across the ocean. Consequently, there is more reason to suppose a serious contraction in the US economy. However, the situation is no better in the European Union, and today we can verify this. Also, one should not forget about the factor of "market confidence in the dollar", which at almost any moment can lead to new strong purchases of US currency. Thus, first of all, you should still pay attention to technical factors, and not to the "foundation".

Based on all of the above we have two trading ideas for April 30:

1) The first condition for continuing the upward movement is met. The downward trend line was overcome. Thus, we advise you to trade for an increase by aiming for the April 19 high at 1.0990. We believe that the pair can go down from the current positions, as it has already rebounded several times from the resistance area of 1.0890-.0900. Thus, another condition for opening long positions is to secure quotes above the resistance level of 1.0903. The potential to Take Profit in this case is 85 points.

2) The second option - bearish - involves overcoming a new upward trend line and in this case we recommend selling the euro with the first goal being the Kijun-sen line of the Ichimoku indicator at 1.0808. A rebound from the 1.0890-1.0990 area can also be identified, which will also be a signal to sell. The potential to Take Profit in this scenario will be 45 points.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Overview of the GBP/USD pair. April 30. Donald Trump is losing the political fight to Joe Biden. The US economy is at risk

4-hour timeframe

analytics5eaa15f73e36d.jpg

Technical details:

Higher linear regression channel: direction - downward.

Lower linear regression channel: direction - upward.

Moving average (20; smoothed) - up.

CCI: 100.1954

On April 30, the British pound begins the same moderate upward movement that has been observed in recent days. Thus, the past day, as well as for the euro/dollar pair, did not change the balance of forces in the confrontation between the pound and the US dollar. The technical picture did not change, and the Fed meeting did not affect the movement of the pair and the preferences of traders and their activity. If a month ago we complained about ultra-high volatility and not without reason, now we can complain about quite weak volatility. For the pound, this indicator has fallen in recent weeks to a value of "less than 100 points per day". The Heiken Ashi indicator turns the bars purple again, which signals a short-term upward trend.

The flow of fundamental information from the UK is now zero. From time to time, information is received on the spread of "coronavirus" or on the lifting of certain quarantine measures, but all this information has long ceased to concern traders. It concerns ordinary people, citizens, residents of every country, and people who are ill, may get sick, may lose relatives, and have to be quarantined, but not currency traders. Only one macroeconomic report is scheduled for this week in the UK, and even then it is not the most significant. And then on Friday. And even then it will be ignored with a 99% probability. Thus, we can only pay attention to the news that is available to us. And they come mainly from overseas.

One of these topics is the upcoming US presidential election in November 2020. We have covered this topic several times already. In short, its essence is as follows. Donald Trump wants to be re-elected for a second term and, as a true businessman, is ready to go to any measures to win. But suddenly, at the beginning of this year, he was tripped up by an epidemic of "coronavirus", which simply killed all the economic progress of the world's largest economy in recent years. Moreover, experts, representatives of the Federal Reserve, as well as various rating agencies and banking conglomerates believe that the US economy will lose much more in the second quarter than 4.8% in the first. Thus, in the month of November, Trump simply will not have any trumps left on his hands to declare them to the electorate. Even now, the American President is trying to blame the epidemic in the United States on China, WHO, and the country's chief epidemiologist. In general, on anyone, just to protect themselves. However, as practice shows, it is unlikely that such measures will convince the American electorate of the need to elect Donald Trump as President for a second time. The slowdown in the US economy began one and a half to two years ago when the US leader decided that China was "treating America unfairly" and urgently needed to review trade conditions. Because of this, the world economy lost several percents of GDP, and the parties fought two years of trade battles, called negotiations. This factor alone makes us wonder whether the country needs a conflicted president who kills all the progress that the country is making while he is in power. Under Trump, the US economy grew strongly, but thanks to him, it also began to slow down. And in 2020, it risks losing trillions of GDP. At the same time, the Democrats, in particular Joe Biden, who is the main contender for the presidency, do not need to do anything. It is only necessary to point out mistakes and gaps in the actions of the current government, of which there were plenty. Starting with the same trade war with China, ending with the story of impeachment and the failure of the fight against the "coronavirus" pandemic. According to the latest sociological research, Joe Biden is ahead of Donald Trump in political ratings by 6-10%. The study shows that more than 50% of voters are ready to vote for Joe Biden, and no more than 40% for Trump if there were only two contenders. If there were more candidates, 38% would vote for Trump and 44% for Biden. And there is not a single study or poll where Trump won. Moreover, many political analysts believe that at this time, Trump is deprived of his main weapon – propaganda. Now, because of the epidemic, it is forbidden to hold rallies and any other events at which Trump could speak to the public and assure that "America has a bright future". In addition, many well-known politicians, such as Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama support the candidacy of Joe Biden. Thus, the probability of Trump's victory in the upcoming elections is falling.

The main headache of the American President remains the COVID-2019 epidemic. More than a million cases of the disease have been reported in the United States, but Trump still insists on opening economic borders and ending the quarantine. Yesterday, the US President was asked how he could comment on these figures, to which the US leader said that "eventually the number of cases will fall to zero." Journalists immediately recalled similar words of Trump in February of this year, when the number of officially registered patients in America was 15. Also, Trump did not miss the opportunity to once again boast of the success (in his opinion) in countering the "coronavirus". "You should understand that we (the United States) conduct much more testing than any other country in the world. Therefore, we find more cases, because we conduct many more tests," the American President said. However, experts in the field of sociology and medicine immediately calculated that the United States also has a much higher population than in many other countries. For example, in Italy, one test for "coronavirus" was performed for every 35 people, in Spain - for every 45, in Australia - for every 50 people, and in America - for every 60. Thus, in terms of the relative number of tests performed per capita, the United States is not in the first place in the world. But on the first in terms of the number of diseases and the number of deaths from the pandemic. It should also be added that many health experts, as well as politicians, believe that if the "lockdown" is completed, the United States may be overwhelmed by a new wave of diseases.

analytics5eaa160e04220.jpg

The average volatility of the GBP/USD pair is again decreasing and is now 98 points per day. In the last 20-25 trading days, the volatility indicators have been stable. And in the last 6 days, they do not exceed the value of 114 points. On Thursday, April 30, we expect movement within the channel, limited by the levels of 1.2369 and 1.2565. Turning the Heiken Ashi indicator down will indicate a new round of downward correction or even a possible resumption of downward movement.

Nearest support levels:

S1 – 1.2451

S2 – 1.2390

S3 – 1.2329

Nearest resistance levels:

R1 – 1.2512

R2 – 1.2573

R3 – 1.2634

Trading recommendations:

The GBP/USD pair resumed its upward movement on the 4-hour timeframe. Thus, traders are recommended to consider buying the pound today with the goals of 1.2512 and 1.2565, before the new reversal of the Heiken Ashi indicator down. It is recommended to sell the British currency no earlier than fixing the price below the moving average line with the first target Murray level of "2/8"-1.2329.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Overview of the EUR/USD pair. April 30. The US economy is at risk of declining in the first quarter more than the European

4-hour timeframe

analytics5eaa1579899ab.jpg

Technical details:

Higher linear regression channel: direction - downward.

Lower linear regression channel: direction - downward.

Moving average (20; smoothed) - sideways.

CCI: 136.2054

The EUR/USD currency pair has broken the moving average line and continues a very weak upward movement. Traders had some hopes that activity would increase yesterday, and there would be a reaction to all macroeconomic events. However, somewhere the events themselves did not impress, and somewhere there was nothing to react to. In general, according to the results of Wednesday, the situation on the currency market for the EUR/USD pair has not changed at all. The pair still has a chance to grow, and there are chances to fall, and the market mood can only be understood and tracked through technical analysis.

The fourth trading day of the week promises to be no less interesting in terms of fundamental events than the third, and no less boring in terms of market movements. We expected clearly more from the day during which GDP was published in the United States, as well as the results of the Fed meeting were summed up. However, we are forced to state the fact that traders continue to ignore almost all the news, messages, and reports that come to their disposal. Even the "coronavirus" epidemic no longer causes a shock among traders, although the number of diseases in the world continues to grow, already exceeding 3 million. However, it should be noted that 1 million have already been cured of the disease, but do not forget that the "coronavirus" is not measles. If you get sick once, it doesn't mean that once you get cured, you won't get sick a second time. Thus, the world needs concrete signals about the end of the pandemic, about the invention of a vaccine, and not about reducing the incidence rate below 1 (if the ratio is below 1, it means that each infected person will infect less than one person). After all, it is clear to everyone that if we begin to weaken the quarantine measures, a second wave of the epidemic is not excluded, because there was no medicine or vaccine. Thus, we believe that many countries of the world that have declared their readiness to ease the quarantine are walking on a knife's edge and taking a very big risk. After all, a new outbreak of "coronavirus" will definitely lead to the need to re-launch the quarantine.

On the fourth trading day of the week, more macroeconomic data is planned than on Wednesday. Important data will come from Germany, where the report on retail sales for March will be published (forecast of 1.5% in annual terms and -7.3% in monthly terms). The unemployment rate is also expected to increase in April from 5% to 5.2%-5.5%, and the number of applications for unemployment benefits should be from 76 to 120 thousand. The news is exciting, but it is unlikely to interest market participants. They will only have to note the actual values of these indicators and forget about them until the time when the markets start paying attention to the fundamental background again. Also on this day, GDP figures for France for the first quarter (forecast of -3.5% q/q), Spain (forecast of -4.4% q/q) and Italy (forecast of -5% q/q) will be published. These reports will help you find out how things are in individual EU countries. And a little later, the figures that may have an impact on the foreign exchange market will become known. First, it is inflation in the European Union, which should slow down to 0.1% in annual terms in April. Second, the unemployment rate, which experts predict will rise to 7.7% in March. Third, it is the Gross Domestic Product for the first quarter, which may lose 3.5% compared to the previous quarter. It is the latter indicator that is the most important and significant, as it will allow us to make the first comparisons between the losses of the American and European economies. If the forecast for Eurozone GDP is justified, then it will turn out that the European economy will decline by less than the American one. And this can provide some support for the euro currency in a pair with the dollar. Of course, we remind you once again that market participants now almost ignore any data; however, sooner or later, the market will return to normal and then all these figures will matter.

An equally significant event will take place in the European Union a little later - the summing up of the ECB meeting. As with the Fed, market participants do not expect any major changes in monetary policy parameters. The key rate (credit) is already in the negative area, and the deposit rate is at zero. Thus, formally, the European regulator has the ability to lower rates even more, but it is unlikely to resort to this now if it did not want to take such a step at a time when all the world's central banks cut rates in an emergency order. Accordingly, we will talk at most about new programs to stimulate the economy and expand existing ones. At the ECB press conference, Christine Lagarde can share the regulator's vision for the current state of the economy, as well as share forecasts for key indicators and plans for the coming months.

Well, no less significant event for the euro/dollar currency pair will be the publication of the next report in the US on applications for unemployment benefits, for the week of April 24. It is expected that there will be another 3.5 million new initial applications. Thus, the total number of initial applications for benefits in 6 weeks may reach 31 million. Recall that the economically active population in America is about 160 million. Some experts believe that the indicator of secondary applications for unemployment benefits is more important since it reflects applications for benefits from people who are already receiving it and are out of work. This figure for the week of April 17 (behind the indicator of initial applications for the week) may grow to 19.2 million. That is, it is not very far behind the indicator for initial applications. In any case, we state the fact that unemployment continues to grow, despite all the efforts of the government to lend and finance businesses in order to save jobs. According to this indicator, as well as GDP indicators, this week it will be possible to conclude that the European economy is suffering less from the pandemic than the American one. Or that the EU government has taken more effective measures to support the economy.

The latest indicators of changes in personal income and spending of the American population for March are planned for today. These are absolutely secondary indicators that are unlikely to cause any reaction from traders. The technical picture implies an upward movement in the near future, although both channels of linear regression are directed downward.

analytics5eaa159553844.jpg

The volatility of the euro/dollar currency pair as of April 30 is 76 points. Volatility, therefore, remains average in strength, and there is no reason to expect a new wave of panic yet. Today, we expect the pair's quotes to move between the levels of 1.0798 and 1.0950. The reversal of the Heiken Ashi indicator downwards may signal the beginning of a downward correction.

Nearest support levels:

S1 – 1.0864

S2 – 1.0742

S3 – 1.0620

Nearest resistance levels:

R1 – 1.0986

R2 – 1.1108

R3 – 1.1230

Trading recommendations:

The EUR/USD pair has broken the moving average so the trend is already rising. Thus, traders are recommended to trade for an increase today with the goal of a volatility level of 1.0950 before the Heiken Ashi indicator turns down. It is recommended to consider selling the euro/dollar pair not before fixing the price below the moving average line with the goals of 1.0798 and 1.0742.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

US crude oil to collapse again.

analytics5ea914a8cdd05.jpg

Tuesday brought US crude oil another day of volatile trading. Concerns about insufficient storage capacity persist, and masses reckon that US oil quotes would fall below zero again.

Extreme price fluctuations from $ 10 to $ 14 per barrel during recent sessions have shocked the global oil markets.

According to Westpac strategist Robert Rennie, the storage capacity of the oil industry, including floating storage, is nearing the limit, so prices are pressured even more.

Traders say that production cut is the sole solution, but most oil companies are hesitating to do so.

"Very little supply has been cut," Martijn Rats, strategist at Morgan Stanley, said. "This is a negligible amount," he added. On Tuesday, S&P GSCI said that "unscheduled" pull outs from the WTI June contract will occur before prices become negative.

"Nobody wants a repeat of what happened with the May contract," said Warren Patterson, head of ING Commodities strategy in Singapore. "The current movement suggests that the June contract will become increasingly illiquid, and will probably suffer from increased volatility in anticipation of the validity period."

Brent quotes for June delivery also declined on Tuesday, reaching a low of $ 18.73 per barrel, but recovered to $ 20.46, 2.4% higher, before the end of the trading session.

Other energy markets also suffered: LNG cargo prices plummeted to the lowest level in history, trading at less than $ 1.90 per million British thermal units, which is 60% less since the beginning of this year.

Tragedy on an oil tanker in Syria, which killed at least 10 people, further justified the volatility of oil prices on Tuesday.

Analysts claim that oil quotes will remain unstable until countries achieve larger reductions.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Indicator analysis. Daily review on GBP / USD for April 29, 2020

The pair traded on the upper part of the trading range on Tuesday but could not break through 1.2494 - a 61.8% retracement level (presented in a red dotted line). After this, the market slightly rolled down. Today, a continuation with the upward movement is expected. Economic calendar news for the dollar is expected at 12:30, 14:00, 14:30, 18:00, and 18:30 UTC.

Trend analysis (Fig. 1).

Today, the pair may continue to move upward from the level of 1.2426 (closing of yesterday's candle) with the first target at the upper fractal 1.2518. If this level is broken upwards, the price may continue to move upward with the target of 1.2552 - a 76.4% retracement level (presented in a red dashed line). In case of testing this level, a downward pullback is possible, while maintaining an upward trend. The main news of the day comes out at 18:00 UTC which is about the US interest rates. The possibility of an upward trend is higher.

analytics5ea91a103650d.jpg

Fig. 1 (daily chart).

Comprehensive analysis:

- Indicator analysis - up;

- Fibonacci levels - up;

- Volumes - up;

- Candlestick analysis - down;

- Trend analysis - up;

- Bollinger Lines - up;

- Weekly schedule - up.

General conclusion:

Today, the price may continue to move up with the target of 1.2552 - a 76.4% retracement level (presented in a red dashed line).

Another possible scenario is a bearish trend from the level of 1.2494 - a 61.8% retracement level (presented in a red dashed line) with a target of 1.2357 - a 23.6% retracement level (presented in a blue dashed line). If this level is broken downwards, the price may continue to move downward with the target at the lower fractal 1.2247 (presented in a red dashed line).

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Hot forecast and trading recommendation for EUR/USD on April 29, 2020

The market is less and less responsive to reports regarding the spread of the coronavirus epidemic. This is a good thing since it can be aligned with the passage of the peak of the epidemic. Restrictive measures aimed at containing the spread of coronavirus are already beginning to be lifted in many countries around the world. Other countries have announced starting dates for this process. And so, the market is beginning to pay more and more attention to macroeconomic statistics. Therefore, it is not surprising that the single European currency behaved strictly in the logic of published statistics.

analytics5ea927b417a00.jpg

More precisely, it was incredibly calm and quiet when the European session opened, since no significant macroeconomic data were published in Europe. But the single European currency began to slowly strengthen its positions right before the US session, this is in anticipation of the publication of data on wholesale inventories in the United States. Forecasts said that stocks were supposed to grow by 1.0% in March. However, as soon as the data was published, the dollar quickly won back all the losses. Unexpectedly, wholesale inventories declined 1.0%. Although it looks strange. Nevertheless, it is quite possible that when building forecasts they did not take into account the excessive demand for goods, right at the very beginning of the introduction of the restricted quarantine regime. Retail sales have dramatically fallen. So, frankly, the data is in doubt. Nevertheless, this was enough for the dollar to remain stable in the end.

Wholesale inventories (United States):

analytics5ea927c793356.jpg

At first glance, the most important event for today is the meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee. But in fact, the market will likely neglect this event. No one doubts that no decisions will be made. They have been accepted for a long time. In addition, the Federal Reserve is unlikely to announce any further incentive measures. Most likely, the regulator so far proceeds from the fact that an emergency reduction in the refinancing rate, which has passed in two stages, is a sufficient measure, and, given the situation with the coronavirus epidemic, it is too early to say that any other measures are needed. But the first estimate of United States GDP for the first quarter is of much greater interest. Moreover, they can show a recession of 4.6%. And this is only for the first quarter. Although restrictive measures in the United States were introduced only in mid-March. That is, at the very end of the quarter. These data can show the scale of the economic recession, as everyone understands that in the second quarter the recession will continue and will be much stronger. The dollar will surely be under pressure since the market is gradually returning to normal and is paying more and more attention to macroeconomic statistics.

GDP growth rate (United States):

analytics5ea927e858d6d.jpg

From the point of view of technical analysis, we see the trading forces concentrated within the range of 1.0815/1.0885, that is, repeating a fluctuating pattern in the period of April 16-22. At the same time, market activity is moderate, adhering to the area of daily average volatility.

In terms of a general review of the trading chart, the daily period, a correctional course is visible from the value of 1.0727, which is still included in the structure of a deeper downward movement.

It can be assumed that trading forces will continue to be concentrated within the range of 1.0815/1.0885, where the work will be built both by the method of breaking the established boundaries, and within the range.

We specify all of the above into trading signals:

- We consider purchase positions higher than 1.0860, towards 1.0885. Deals on a breakout of the range are considered after consolidating the price higher than 1.0900.

- We consider selling positions lower than 1.0840, towards 1.0815. Deals on a breakout of the range are considered after the price is consolidated below 1.0810.

From the point of view of a comprehensive indicator analysis, we see an upward interest in hour and minute periods due to the existing correctional course. Daytime periods have a variable signal due to another stagnation.

analytics5ea927fa500c2.jpg

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Markets are tired of negativity and are waiting for confirmation of signals about pandemic's slowdown; Overview of CAD and

Stock markets in Asia traded neutrally on Wednesday morning, waiting for new benchmarks from the Fed and the ECB, which are preparing to hold regular meetings. The general trend is in favor of a gradual exit from the shock provoked by the COVID-19 pandemic, oil is trying to form a base after another wave of decline, and markets are forming the opinion that the worst is over.

If this point of view is strengthened, then a basis will be formed for the resumption of growth after clarifying the estimates of the decline in national economies. This base will be very low due to an extremely strong fall, however, it must be assumed that a low base will provide an excellent opportunity to continue investment in risky assets.

analytics5ea918521f4bf.jpg

Today, a preliminary estimate of US GDP in the 1st quarter will be published in addition to the Fed meeting. At the end of the day, the growth of the dollar is unlikely, the main impulse will be the press conference by Fed Chairman J. Powell, at which he is expected to try to convince the markets again regarding the Fed's strength and full control over the situation.

USD/CAD

According to CFTC, the cumulative short position of the Canadian dollar has slightly changed and remains quite deep in negative territory. The estimated fair price is still significantly higher than the spot price, and there is no tendency to decrease it.

analytics5ea9186913be4.jpg

This may mean that the current pullback of the loonie from the maximum last March 19 is a reaction to a general decline in panic moods, and not to fundamental justification, since even a drop in oil prices did not have a noticeable effect on the rate of USD/CAD pair.

In general, we must proceed from the fact that the decline in oil prices caused by a sharp decline in demand will not play a decisive role in the prospects of the Canadian dollar. The decline in oil prices usually led to an increase in the US stock market before the crisis of 2008, that is, an overall strengthening of the dollar. But after the crisis, a reverse reaction is observed, and now a decline in oil prices leads to a decrease in the stock market. The prolonged shock from falling oil prices causes the depreciation of the US dollar against a wide range of currencies, but the yield on bond futures is now slightly changing. This means that oil prices are less and less affecting commodity currencies, which we can see from the paradoxical stability of the Australian dollar at current extremely low oil prices.

The current strengthening of the Canadian currency is largely due to plans to open the Canadian economy and reduce the threat from coronavirus. The short-term situation remains bearish, support at 1.3854 has become key, and testing it seems almost inevitable. Breaking through it will open the direction to 1.3745, this is the next target, which will provide an opportunity to sell when support falls. If you pull back up to 1.40, selling can be considered with a short stop and a goal of 1.3854.

USD/JPY

The Bank of Japan continues to consistently implement an economic support program. At a meeting on Monday, a decision was made on the unlimited purchase of government bonds, that is, now BoJ, following the example of the Fed, will not bind itself to any framework, but will act exclusively from the current situation. It was also decided to increase the volume of purchases of corporate bonds and commercial securities to 20 trillion yen. the rates, as expected, remained unchanged, since their further reduction may lead to an unpredictable market reaction, and the effect will be questionable.

As a result, USD/JPY finally rushed to where it was high time to go - down. The estimated fair price of the yen is significantly higher than the current one; speculators increased the total long position again, that is, they are waiting for the yen to strengthen.

analytics5ea9187ff3fe8.jpg

Technically, the yen looks stronger than the dollar; therefore, the fall of USD/JPY may increase. Support at 106.80 could not resist, the nearest goal is 105.20 / 25, where the level of 61.8% of the March growth passes as well as the middle of the downward channel passes. A pullback may be short-term and will most likely be used for new sales, the deeper goal is located at 103.73.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Indicator analysis. Daily review on EUR / USD for April 29, 2020

The pair moved upward on Tuesday and tested the level of 1.0892 - a 50% pullback level (presented in a blue dotted line), then the market went down by 68 points. Today, the upward movement may continue. Economic calendar news for the dollar is expected at 12:30, 14:00, 14:30, 18:00, and 18:30 UTC.

Trend analysis (Fig. 1).

Today, the upward trend may continue from the level of 1.0824 - a 76.4% pullback level (presented in a red dashed line) with the first target of 1.0861 - a 50.0% pullback level (presented in a blue dashed line). When this level is broken upwards, the price may continue to move upward with the target of 1.0892 - a 61.8% retracement level (presented in a blue dashed line). The main news of the day comes out at 18:00 UTC, which is about the US interest rates. Also, the possibility of an upward trend is higher.

analytics5ea911cf00e8a.jpg

Fig. 1 (daily chart).

Comprehensive analysis:

- Indicator analysis - up;

- Fibonacci levels - up;

- Volumes - up;

- Candlestick analysis - up;

- Trend analysis - down;

- Bollinger lines - down;

- Weekly schedule - up.

General conclusion:

Today the price may continue to move upward with the target of 1.0892 - a 61.8% retracement level (presented in a blue dashed line).

Another possible scenario is a bearish trend from 1.0860 - a 50.0% pullback level (blue dashed line) with a target at the lower fractal 1.0728 (presented in a blue dashed line).

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

FOMC meeting and interest rate decision

Signals for the EUR/USD pair:

If the price breaks through the level of 1.0855, the euro can rise to 1.0886 and 1.0913.

A breakthrough at 1.0819 is likely to lead to a sell-off of the euro to 1.0787 and 1.0755.

Signals for the GBP/USD pair:

The British pound is expected to grow to 1.2512 and 1.2573, if the price breaks through the level of 1.2480.

A breakthrough at 1.2454 is likely to lead to a sell-off of the British pound to 1.2348 and 1.2300.

Fundamental data:

The ADP employment report, the Fed's interest rate decision and Jerome Powell's press conference are expected today

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Technical Analysis of EUR/USD for 29/04/2020:

Technical Market Outlook:

The EUR/USD pair has hit the key short-term resistance located at the level of 1.0878. So far the bulls were able to make a new local high at the level of 1.0849 and they are under the bearish pressure again. The price was rejected from the level of 1.0878 and a Bearish Engulfing candlestick pattern was made at the end of the move. The momentum is still strong and positive, but the market conditions are overbought, so the odds for another dynamic wave up are decreasing. The nearest technical support is seen at the level of 1.0809.

Weekly Pivot Points:

WR3 - 1.1057

WR2 - 1.0976

WR1 - 1.0895

Weekly Pivot - 1.0809

WS1 - 1.0731

WS2 - 1.0641

WS3 - 1.0563

Trading Recommendations:

The fear of the coronavirus consequences is very strong among the global investors and it rules on the financial markets. ON the EUR/USD pair the main trend is down, but the reversal is possible when the coronavirus pandemic will be tamed. The key long-term technical support is seen at the level of 1.0336 and the key long-term technical resistance is seen at the level of 1.1540. Only if one of this levels is clearly violated, the main trend might reverse (1.1540) or accelerate (1.0336).

analytics5ea9173c7b477.jpg

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Technical Analysis of GBP/USD for 29/04/2020:

Technical Market Outlook:

The GBP/USD pair has broken through 61% Fibonacci retracement located at the level of 1.2493, but immediatley was rejected and the Pin Bar candle was made at the end of this move. The level of 1.2516 might be a key short-term level for both bulls and bears as any violation of this level will lead to another sub-wave up with a target at the levels of 1.2580. Nevertheless, in order to continue the larger time frame up trend, the bulls must violate the swing high located at 1.2645 otherwise the current move up will be considered as a counter-trend corrective wave that will not last for long.

Weekly Pivot Points:

WR3 - 1.2379

WR2 - 1.2609

WR1 - 1.2480

Weekly Pivot - 1.2357

WS1 - 1.2228

WS2 - 1.2104

WS3 - 1.1970

Trading Recommendations:

The fear of the coronavirus consequences is very strong among the global investors and it rules on the financial markets. On the GBP/USD pair the main trend is down, but the reversal is possible when the coronavirus pandemic will be tamed. The key long-term technical support has been recently violated (1.1983) and the new one is seen at the level of 1.1404. The key long-term technical resistance is seen at the level of 1.3518. Only if one of this levels is clearly violated, the main trend might reverse (1.3518) or accelerate (1.1404).

analytics5ea916313f541.jpg

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Technical Analysis of BTC/USD for 29/04/2020:

Crypto Industry News:

Speaking at Virtual Blockchain Week, the famous venture capital investor Tim Draper confirmed that he is sticking to his six-digit Bitcoin price forecast.

In 2018, Tim Draper publicly announced that the Bitcoin price will reach $ 250,000 by the end of 2022 or early 2023. He cites a few main reasons that can lead to this type of price action. Draper believes the US government's massive stimulus package will lower the dollar and "send people to cryptography." He also expects Bitcoin to be adopted around the world at this time.

Draper says that a company called OpenNode (in which he invested $ 1.25 million) can help achieve this goal. OpenNode is building a Bitcoin payment gateway in the Lightning Network, known for extremely fast BTC transaction settlements. He believes that over time such services will prove their competitive advantage over conventional players - credit cards - and steal market share from them in the same way that MasterCard and Visa took market share from the then dominant American Express.

Technical Market Outlook:

The BTC/USD pair has broken above the technical resistance located at the level of $7,706 and made a new local high at $7,817. The next target is seen at the level of $7,897, but there is a clear bearish divergence between the price and momentum oscillator at current levels. If bears will push the prices lower, they can hit the next technical support located at the level of $7,385 and below.

Weekly Pivot Points:

WR3 - $9,046

WR2 - $8,348

WR1 - $8,040

Weekly Pivot - $7,352

WS1 - $7,064

WS2 - $6,356

WS3 - $6,047

Trading Recommendations:

The fear of the coronavirus consequences is very strong among the global investors and it rules on the financial markets. So far the global investors are not so keen to invest in Bitcoin and treat BTC as a digital gold. The larger time frame trend remains down and as long as the level of $10,791 is not violated, all rallies will be treated as a counter-trend corrective moves. This is why the short positions are now more preferred.

analytics5ea9152834458.jpg

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Technical Analysis of ETH/USD for 29/04/2020:

Crypto Industry News:

The World Economic Forum has published a report analyzing how the implementation of Blockchain-based solutions can solve the problem of inefficiency and failure of the supply chain, which was revealed by the COVID-19 pandemic. Along with the report, the Forum released a set of tools for implementing Blockchain to help the government and enterprises adapt their supply chains to the current economic situation and "accelerate economic recovery after COVID-19".

The report, published on April 28, confirms that the resilience of private and public supply chains has been tested in the outbreak of coronavirus - citing the chains of pharmaceutical products, medical products and food among the sectors most affected. The report argues that the efficiency of supply chains depends on transparency, advocating the adoption of DLT technology to create "common truth" among supply chain stakeholders.

The World Economic Forum is a Swiss non-governmental organization that was founded in 1971 to engage business, academic and political leaders in key economic issues related to the development of the global economy.

Technical Market Outlook:

The ETH/USD has bounced fromt he technical support located at the level of $188.86 and is currently heading back towards the recent swing high located at the level of $198.72. Nevertheless, there is a clear bearish divergence between the price and momentum indicator that supports the short-term bearish outlook, so the level of $188.86 might not be the target level and the ETH/USD rate can drop even further towards the next target at $178.25. The key short-term technical resistance is still located at the level of $198.72 and only a clear breakout above this level will open the road towards the $209.09 target.

Weekly Pivot Points:

WR3 - $243.80

WR2 - $220.39

WR1 - $211.16

Weekly Pivot - $187.55

WS1 - $172.98

WS2 - $155.34

WS3 - $144.09

Trading Recommendations:

The fear of the coronavirus consequences is very strong among the global investors and it rules on the financial markets. So far the global investors are not so keen to invest in cryptocurrency, because they are being perceived as risky assets. The larger time frame trend on Ethereum remains down and as long as the level of $214.67 is not violated, all rallies will be treated as a counter-trend corrective moves. This is why the short positions are now more preferred.

analytics5ea9140268314.jpg

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Elliott wave analysis of EUR/GBP for April 29 - 2020

analytics5ea90b33e235f.jpg

Low volatility and range-trading is dominating the picture here. In the last 24 hours, EUR/GBP has been trading in a narrow range between 0.8688 - 0.8725, but this low volatility trading is likely a precursor for upside acceleration once minor resistance at 0.8734 and more importantly resistance at 0.8769 is broken. Ultimately, we are looking for a rally above 0.9499. When this corrective decline from 0.8867 is completed, the next impulsive rally takes hold.

Only an unexpected break below 0.8675 will change the 0.8621 corrective target.

R3: 0.8867

R2: 0.8769

R1: 0.8737

Pivot: 0.8724

S1: 0.8709

S2: 0.8675

S3: 0.8621

Trading recommendation:

We are long EUR from 0.8675 with our stop placed at 0.8670. An unexpected break might occur below 0.8670. We will re-buy EUR at 0.8630

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Elliott wave analysis of GBP/JPY for April 29 - 2020

analytics5ea90977ab14b.jpg

The range-trading continues between 132.93 - 133.59. The low volatility is most likely a pre-courser for downside acceleration once this deadlock is resolved. We need to see a break below minor support at 132.36 and more importantly a break below support at 131.88 to confirm that the next impulsive wave of the decrease from 135.75 is in motion. Ultimately we are looking for a break below 123.99 to complete the long-term decline from 147.96 and set the stage for a new impulsive rally. For now, our focus should remain on the downside for a final drop below 123.99.

R3: 134.95

R2: 134.12

R1: 133.68

Pivot: 133.28

S1: 132.36

S2: 131.88

S3: 131.34

Trading recommendation:

We are short GBP from 134.35 with our stop placed at 135.00. Upon a break below support at 131.88 we will lower our stop to 134.00

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

GBP/USD: plan for the European session on April 29. Attempts to buy the pound, but are also being sold quickly. Bulls need

To open long positions on GBP/USD, you need:

The pound's upward movement yesterday morning ended with it also being sold from the resistance level of 1.2512, from which I recommended to open short positions, which is clearly visible on the 5-minute chart. A false breakout in the resistance area of 1.2512 caused the pound to rapidly fall under the support of 1.2454, which the bulls managed to win back in the Asian session today. At the moment, while trading is conducted above this level, we can expect the pound to strengthen further, but I advise you to open long positions only after forming a false breakout in this range. An equally important task for the bulls will be to break through and update this week's highs above the 1.2512 level, and the next goal will be the resistance of 1.2512, where I recommend taking profits. In case GBP/USD declines in the first half of the day under the support of 1.2454, bears can take the market under their control. In this case, it is best to count on long positions after forming a false breakout from the support of 1.2405, or buy the pound immediately on the rebound from the low of 1.2348.

analytics5ea910d65d46b.jpg

To open short positions on GBP/USD, you need:

Sellers are active with each increase in the British pound, which is clearly visible on the chart, but in order to return the market under their control, they need to consolidate below the middle of the channel 1.2454, which will be the first signal to open short positions. An equally important task for the bears is a breakout and to consolidate below the level of 1.2405, which can happen today only after a weak report on US GDP, which will return the demand for safe haven assets, thereby causing the GBP/USD to fall to the area of lows of 1.2348 and 1.2300, where I recommend taking profits. If the bulls are stronger in the first half of the day and attempt to update the highs, and this is necessary to maintain the upward trend, then short positions would be best once a false breakout is near the resistance of 1.2512, or sell the pound immediately on the rebound from 1.2573 while aiming for a correction of 30-40 points within the day. Today's Federal Reserve meeting is also important, set to take place this afternoon, as the Committee is expected to announce its decision on interest rates.

analytics5ea910eabfc01.jpg

Signals of indicators:

Moving averages

Trade is conducted above 30 and 50 moving averages, which implies that buyers have a slight advantage.

Note: The period and prices of moving averages are considered by the author on the hourly chart H1 and differs from the general definition of the classic daily moving averages on the daily chart D1.

Bollinger bands

If the pound declines, support will be provided by the lower border of the indicator at 1.2405. Growth will be limited by the upper level of the indicator at 1.2512.

Description of indicators

  • Moving average (moving average determines the current trend by smoothing out volatility and noise). Period 50. The graph is marked in yellow.
  • Moving average (moving average determines the current trend by smoothing out volatility and noise). Period 30. The graph is marked in green.
  • MACD indicator (Moving Average Convergence / Divergence - moving average convergence / divergence) Fast EMA period 12. Slow EMA period 26. SMA period 9
  • Bollinger Bands (Bollinger Bands). Period 20
The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com